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Welcome to week 2 ladies and gentlemen! I’m hoping you all are reading this following two weeks of main slate cashes and you are all ready to top it off with some showdown fun. I’d like to welcome all of our new subscribers to the Win Daily family. You’ve come to the right place we have some of the absolute best projection models, articles, and discord chat in the industry. Now let’s finish this night strong with Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.20 Patriots at Seahawks. This is sure to be a fun one.

As we all know we need to get a little bit weird in order to take down a big showdown by yourself, you have to take stands on guys that you normally would not in a normal slate and take sub-optimal approaches. If your goal is to min cash go ahead and play the chalk and hop into the 50/50’s and double-ups. That’s not what this is. Historically speaking the type of showdown lineups that solo take-down a contest would make you shake your head. Fading studs, leaving tons of salary on the table, and negative correlations are a common site on these one game contests.

In week one I walked through a couple of scenarios and talked through the mindset that you had to have, focusing more on script and scheme and how you selected your players to fit the “story” that you are telling with your lineup and we had some fun doing it. I’m going to take a slightly different tact this week. We’ll still talk through some scenarios and plays but we’ll forgo the photos and I’ll have it listed in a little more of a formal way at the end than I had in week one.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.20 Patriots at Seahawks Vegas Script.

The first thing that sticks out to me. I can’t remember the last time I saw a sub 45 point total in a Patriots game, much less a Patriots game against another potent offense like the Seahawks but it is 2020 so we’ll roll with it. Seattle is favored by 4 so the Vegas scenario says that it will be competitive but New England will likely be playing from behind so how does that looks with a showdown lineup? Well for starters, as much as we want to project last years stats on this years team, they are nothing alike. Aside from Bill Belichick we have nothing to compare to, which means we have nothing. What we have is an absence of seven defensive players from the 2019 season including Patrick Chung, Dont’a Hightower, and Kyle Van Noy. As much as we want to say they are fine, last week was at home, against Miami, with an almost 38 year old Ryan Fitzpatrick, down his number one receiver. This contest will not be that, and my expectation is that Cam will be spending a lot more time in passing situations. I think that most builds will be pretty close with guessing the correct RB and WR on the Patriots side being the key to a top finish.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.20 Patriots at Seahawks Flex and Captains:

Patriots:

I was a little worried about how Cam Newton would look in New England but as of now he looks fully healthy from both the shoulder and foot injury that ruined his last couple of seasons so clearly he is in play and he’ll be the big chalk in my opinion just due to his physical running style but as I said earlier I see a lot more throwing from him tomorrow which aside from one fantastic season it really hasn’t been his strong suit so I prefer him in the flex based on that but if you are all in go for it, just know it will be crowded with him at captain. Julian Edelman and N’keal Harry are both going into tomorrow with the Q tag but it’s the Patriots so I think you’re fine with both but my preference is Harry just due to to Cam’s history of favoring bigger receivers over his career, Edelman and Harry had 7 and 6 targets respectively leading all others in targets albeit on a run heavy, read option game plan . I think you guys can see where I’m going in terms of my lean for RB. As much as one can predict with the Pats I think we see a James White game and I think we’ll see it early, Belichick knows there is a gap in offensive firepower and he might try to get up quick in an attempt to control the tempo and using White is his best option from a passing perspective. But it is the Pats, I am as much in the loop as you are. One very under the radar guy who is high risk but can set you apart from the crowd is Damiere Byrd. He didn’t get targeted once but he out snapped both Harry and Edelman and if they need to push the ball downfield he’ll need to be involved and he’s dirt cheap for salary savings.

Flex Plays: Julian Edelman, N’keal Harry, James White, Damiere Byrd, Cam Newton

Captains (Chalk): Cam Newton, Julian Edelman (Low Owned): N’keal Harry, James White

Seahawks:

This one is much easier in my opinion. While Bill Belechick’s specific schemes always vary his goal is the same. Taking the top one or two options, I think for Bill that means DK Metcalf and Russell Wilson‘s running ability. While I think you can tool around with any of the offensive weapons the three I’ll have the most of is Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson, and Russell Wilson. Wilson doesn’t need to run, it’s just an added benefit so he’s firmly in the bulk of my lineups. Additionally, David Moore Hauled in 3 of 3 targets so he is worth a look as a value option so long as Dorsett is not ready to come back from a foot injury and Greg Olsen is still as consistent as ever no matter who is throwing him the ball. It is only a matter of health for him, not skill.

Flex: DK Metcalf, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson, DK Metcalf, David Moore, Greg Olsen (if Phillip Dorsett sits)

Captain (Chalk): Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett (Low Owned): Greg Olsen, Chris Carson

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.20 Patriots at Seahawks. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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So nice we’re doing it twice. My original plans were to cover DraftKings featured Showdown only with the Titans at Broncos but you guys have spoken and I will gladly sit down and talk Steelers/Giants. I really do not know why this was not chosen as the featured contest for DK but that is a different conversation all together. Without further delay here is Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Steelers at Giants

As we all know we need to get a little bit weird in order to take down a big showdown by yourself, you have to take stands on guys that you normally would not in a normal slate and take sub-optimal approaches. If your goal is to min cash go ahead and play the chalk and hop into the 50/50’s and double-ups. That’s not what this is. Historically speaking the type of showdown lineups that solo take-down a contest would make you shake your head. Fading studs, leaving too much salary on the table, and negative correlations are a common site on these one game contests.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Steelers at Giants:

The first thing that we are looking at is our core for our builds that we will want to have in your lineup if playing one lineup and the bulk of your builds for MME. With a projected total of 45 and the Steelers favored by 5.5 the path that we can project as the most likely is Pittsburgh leaning a bit more on their run game and the Giants attacking through the air to catch up. That immediately puts guys like James Connor, Daniel Jones, Evan Engram, and what I suspect will be the toughest pick, one of the Giants receivers into your core. You need to take a stand one way or the other and live with your choice unless you plan on MME. My personal choice is to assume a limited workload or even a no start for Golden Tate and run out Darius Slayton. I think that of the three Giants receivers his ownership will be the lowest and his upside has been displayed in two contests last year where he exceeded 35 DK points against the Jets and Eagles. This is a difficult proposition against the 3-4 Steelers D with Joe Haden and Steven Nelson but with a back like Saquon Barkley they can attack this defense with what is called a four man flood, stick concept which is a concept where you create a lot of traffic on one side (usually four pass catchers and a back in the flat) which creates large openings in the deep post on zone concepts which is where Slayton’s bread and butter is. Speaking of Barkley, we all know what he is so I don’t feel that I need to say much on him. If the Steelers run more man concept today Barkley will be a huge beneficiary receiving out of the backfield using the offensive concept I mentioned above so look for it early. Also you can not afford all of the studs so in this scenario so Ben Rothesberger and his terrible splits and Juju Smith-Schuster get left out for me. You can play that scenario but the build will be vastly different. That gives me my five and as I always state, per DraftKings guidelines I can go no further but that leaves you $4,800 for guys like James Washington, Benny Snell, or Graham Gano, or you can toy around with a different Giants receiver and see where that leads you.

Captains Spot: Preferred Chalk and Low Owned Plays.

Chalk Captains: Saquon Barkley, Daniel Jones, James Conner

Low Owned GPP Captain Pivots: Evan Engram, (any Giants Receiver but Darius Slayton is my play), James Washington, Diontae Johnson

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Steelers at Giants. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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No rest for the weary, as I sit watching our Sunday night showdown contest between the Cowboys and Rams and considering which direction we should go with our Monday Night Football contest between the Tennessee Titans and Denver Broncos. It’s going to be a stark contrast from tonight’s contest with two of the slowest paced teams from 2019 and two teams that love to run the football. The build structure is going to looks quite differently where we can even justify the use of kickers and defenses in certain situations. So, if you can get a little crazy and want to have some fun with a showdown slate come check out Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Titans at Broncos.

As we all know we need to get a little bit weird in order to take down a big showdown by yourself, you have to take stands on guys that you normally would not in a normal slate and take sub-optimal approaches. If your goal is to min cash go ahead and play the chalk and hop into the 50/50’s and double-ups. That’s not what this is. Historically speaking the type of showdown lineups that solo take-down a contest would make you shake your head. Fading studs, leaving too much salary on the table, and negative correlations are a common site on these one game contests.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Titans at Broncos Core:

The first thing that we are looking at is our core for our builds that we will want to have in your lineup if playing one lineup and the bulk of your builds for MME. I won’t make the same mistake as tonight, Derrick Henry ($17,400/$11,600) is the first name you should but in your builds. It’s his show and we all know it. It’s up to you on whether or not to have him as your flex or captain but know that he will be the highest owned captain without question tomorrow and it will be extremely hard to take the contest without 100+ other people. Next is either Melvin Gordon ($12,000/$8,000) or Phillip Lindsey ($11,400/$7,600), my first instinct is go Gordon but every time the Broncos try to replace him he keeps forcing them to keep him in the backfield. So pick your poison there. Next for me is Jonnu Smith ($8,700/$5,800), I really thing he is mispriced. Once Tannehill took over he became a staple in the offensive game plan seeing between 4-7 targets a game and usually hauling them all in further down the field finishing second in yards per target of fourth in catch rate and I expect his growth to continue. So lets see where that puts us.

Now if you believe this game stays on the ground and Lock has a sophmore slump and this stays a slower running game you can throw in the Titans D ($7,500/$5,000) for another core piece. I don’t really recommend the Broncos D, not because of talent, but because the Titans leverage the crap out of low risk situation with ball control and play action. I do not see much in terms of turnovers or sacks from them. I’m going to pretend we’re going the other way and Drew Lock ($14,400/$9,600) has some success in the air. I do not like his price so I will use him in flex and pair him with Jerry Jeudy ($10,800/$7,200) in the captain spot which leaves us with $4200. In that range we can take advantage of the thin air with Kicker Stephen Gostkowski, Daesean Hamilton who flashed in his final two games last season, or Adam Humphries who likely will not give you 20 PPR points but if he gives you 10 points at $2,200 you’re in good shape if the rest of your lineup hits.

Captains Spot: Preferred Chalk and Low Owned Plays.

Chalk Captains: Derrick Henry, Melvin Gordon, Ryan Tannehill

Low Owned GPP Captains: Jonnu Smith, Courtland Sutton (IF ACTIVE), Daesean Hamilton (IF SUTTON INACTIVE), Titans Defense (If playing the running script)

I think people will be scared off putting Sutton in the captain spot if he’s active and I love that with his upside potential in a match-up where low owned upside will be hard to find.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Titans at Broncos. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the 2020 WGC FedEx St.Jude Invitational. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.

With the WGC or any other type of no cut event, I never play cash. As the main idea with cash games is to get six golfers into the weekend. There is just too much variance with mainly the best golfers in the world guaranteed to get four days of play.

Players priced $10,000 and higher

Jon Rahm $11,400 (M3, 14%)
Justin Thomas $10,700 (M4, 16%)
Patrick Cantlay $10,100 (M26, 13%)

Players priced $9,900 and $9,000

Collin Morikawa $9,500 (M1, 16%)
Xander Schauffele $9,800 (M2, 19%)
Matthew Fitzpatrick $9,000 (M5, 12%)
Daniel Berger $9,600 (M6, 15%)
Tyrell Hatton $9,700 (M10, 15%)
Webb Simpson $9,900 (M13, 15%)
Victor Hovland $9,400 (M14, 15%)

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Sergio Garcia $8,000 (M16, 11%)
Gary Woodland $8,600 (M23, 13%)
Hideki Matsuyama $8,900 (M31, 10%)
Rickie Fowler $8,300 (M37, 10%)
Jason Day $8,200 (M38, 7%)
Jordan Spieth $8,100 (M47, 10%)

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,000

Corey Conners $7,300 (M15, 10%)
Bubba Watson $7,100 (M18, 10%)
Kevin Na $7,500 (M22, 6%)
Kevin Kisner $7,000 (M45, 6%)
Matt Kuchar $7,600 (M50, 7%)
Danny Willett $7,100 (M54, 4%)

Players priced between $6,900 and $6,000

Nick Taylor $6,100 (M20, 3%)
Ryan Palmer $$6,700 (M24, 5%)
C.T. Pan $6,100 (M29, 1%)
Tyler Duncan $6,200 (M39, 2%)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout $6,800 (M40, 4%)
Erik Van Rooyen $6,800 (M42, 5%)
J.T. Poston $6,500 (M48, 2%)
Shane Lowry $6,600 (M49, 5%)
Bernd Wiesberger $6,500 (M53, 3%)
Brandt Snedeker $6,400 (M58, 3%)

Strategy for the 2020 WGC FedEx St.Jude

I wanted to switch it up for this article since we’re dealing with a no cut, invitation only event. The list above is for my 150 max contest of the week. It’s almost half the field and I do not expect you to run as many players as myself unless you’re going the same route. I’m gonna run through each price tier and add the players to individual contest selections and where I would play them.

Single Entry

9K – Morikawa, Fitpatrick and Xander
8K – Woodland, Matsuyama & Day
7K – Conners & Watson
6k – Taylor

These are guys that I feel can compete at a high level this week with respect to their price range. I did not get into the 10K range, even though there is no cut, I want to try and keep the “floor” as high as possible. I really like Taylor this week and it’s the only reason he’s in this section. If you want to drop him because of his price, by all means.

3 Max

10K – Rahm or Thomas (Not both)
9K – Hovland and Berger
8K – Garcia

With these four players, add them to the Single Entry mix.

20 Max

10K – The other player of Rahm and Thomas
9K – Hatton & Simpson
7K – Kuchar
6K – Palmer & Duncan

Add these six players to the SE/3 Max pool.

150 Max

10K – Cantlay
8K – Fowler & Spieth
7K – Kisner & Willett
6K – Pan, Bezuidenhout, Rooyen, Poston, Lowry, Wiesberger and Snedeker

Finalize the 150 max pool with these golfers. As a general rule of thumb that I follow when “normally” entering 150 max is the higher the golfer is priced, in general you should have more of them in your lineups. For example…

10K Player – 40%
9K Player – 30%
8K Player – 20%
7K Player – 10%
6K Player – 5%

These golfers are priced like they are for a reason (for the most part). Don’t kill good lineups because you have 30% of a 6K player. Could he go off and you’re way up on the competition, sure. There’s a better chance that they sink those lineups instead. This is a no cut, so feel free to get a little more aggressive if you choose, this would be the event for it.

Projected Ownership – FanShareSports

Monkey Knife Fight

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! As I said I like Rahm and I’m fading Rory, so you can grab the Over for Rahm, the Under for Rory and make some more money! Check out how to play with our quick overview here.

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the 2020 3M Open. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!

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The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the 2020 3M Open. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.

*This is a terrible field OVERALL and I would highly recommend playing lite. There is a legit chance that one of 15 – 20 golfers win this week and I wouldn’t be surprised. With that said, my player pool will generally be heavy chalk or punts. I’ll have my cash section still but this week feels like you need to really nail the low end guys and miss the landmines up top. Yes, this is a general rule but I feel with the ease of the course and the field, chalk will make it through the cut line. There will always be one surprise or so but for now I want the chalk.*

Players priced between $10,000 and higher

**These players are good. Like most weeks, there’s really no need to explain why the top players are here. This week is no different, here is who I am playing.**

Paul Casey $10,100 (Model #1, Projected Ownership 23%)
Brooks Koepka $11,200 (M2, 9%) – Ownership alone makes him a GPP ONLY play for me
Tony Finau $10,900 (M5, 19%)
Tommy Fleetwood $10,500 (M7, 18%)

Players priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Bubba Watson $9,900 (M17, 12%) – Coming off a T32 at The Memorial, Watson is sandwiched between chalk three deep on both sides of him on DraftKings. He’s 16th in Tee to Green on comparable courses and and plays really well on the longer par 4s.

Matthew Wolff $9,700 (M19, 17%) – Last years inaugural winner, he placed 22nd last week. The Rocket Mortgage course has been said to comparable to the 2020 3M Open course and he finished 2nd a few weeks back. Does all of his damage right where you need it (OTT & APP)at TPC Twin Cities. He doesn’t make the cash team though because he is a bit inconstant.

Russell Henley $9,200 (M13, 17%) – Back to back made cuts with a T7 at the Workday Charity Open. He did miss the cut here last year but does show well in the comp course model ranking eighth in T2G. Henley checks a lot of boxes and would rank higher if he was a better putter. Luckily putting isn’t the biggest difference maker here.

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Erik Van Rooyen $8,800 (M18, 24%) – If you want to make a stand, here is your guy but be careful. Rooyen is elite in terms of off the tee and in his approach. He really struggles in the short game. Like Henley though, that’s not necessarily important. What makes him a good player to move off of if you wish is his inconsistency. On courses that he should dominate, he doesn’t. Im playing him at the moment because, again, he could easily win this week, but he could also miss the cut. Choose your poison.

Luke List $8,400 (M43, 13%) – GPP ONLY play for me, List has everything you want at the 2020 3M Open. A good ball striker that can score points with solid odds. He’s not great with the putter and he can get wild with his swing at times (plenty of hazards). I know thats kind of contradicting the ball striking remark but it’s true. Seems to go on and off at times from one hole to another or one round to another.

Max Homa $8,000 (M10, 11%) – Despite missing three cuts in a row (all on the number I believe) and four out of the last five, Homa is still 45th ranked in the field in strokes gained. That’s a crazy stat and truly shows how weak this field is. Top 25 rank in all the important metrics, this is the week Homa breaks through.

Brain Harman $8,000 (M22, 6%) – I’ve wrote him so many times, these last few tournament with nothing but disappointment in the end. Process over results though, right? His putter is the main culprit to his demise but as a whole its the most varied part of a golfers game. If he can get the ball rolling better on the greens, Harman could not only make the cut but perhaps land in the top 15.

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,200

Jhonattan Vegas $7,900 (M9, 12%) – Vegas’ game sets up perfectly for here, which is making higher owned for being a lower priced player. Perhaps better suited as a FRL bet, Vegas does tend to fall off on the weekend. He missed the cut at the Workday but made two top 25 prior.

Sepp Straka $7,900 (M25, 11%) – Since the restart, Straka has made the cut four out of five times. This includes two top 15 finishes including a T8 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic which again is comparable to the 2020 3M open.

Charley Hoffman $7,400 (M34, 10%) – Hoffman is one of the better scorers in the field, which will be needed. Shows up well on comp course model though he did miss the cut last year. Two out of three made cuts since the break, Hoffman feels solid to make the cut and post a possible top 20.

Pat Perez $7,200 (M26, 3%) – Perez is a grinder and can show up from time to time in the top 20. He made the cut at the 3M Open last year (53rd) and made the last two cuts after the restart (T39 & T45). If youre looking for a cheap option without dipping into the 6K, Perez is your man.

Cameron Tringale $7,200 (M50, 5%) – Tringale is another RMC play as he finished T30 a few weeks back. He also made the cut in 2019 finishing 42. A solid ball striker who’s cheap.

Players priced at $7,100 and $7,000

Aaron Wise $7,100 (M55, 4%) – A man that can drive the ball with a solid vegas odds. A man that wins off the tee and approach generally, his recent play leaves something to be desired.

Matthias Schwab $7,000 (M45, 4%) – After touting him last week with a perfect 6/6 cut mark, he of course missed. The Memorial was a hard course and more seasoned players with bigger names also were no match. A top 100 OWGR player, he’s mostly seen on the Euro Tour. I think he bounces back with an easier course and weaker field.

Adam Long $7,000 (M32, 1%) – A man with solid stats across the board who is at his best with his irons and putter. 76th ranked in the worlkd according to DataGolf.com he’s one of the highest ranked in the price range.

Chase Seiffert $7,000 (M11, 10%) – Seiffert might get axed by the end if I think his ownership doesn’t drop. The model has him ranked rather high but it might be a lack of rounds to truly justify his ranking. I’ll have him as I don’t argue with the model I don’t know how much. Proceed with caution at the 2020 3M Open.

Punt Plays $6,900 and below

Matthew NeSmith $6,900 (M16, 2%)
Brice Garnett $6,900 (M36, 2%)
Adam Schenk $6,900 (M33, 4%)
Chesson Hadley $6,900 (M27, 7%)
Hudson Swafford $6,700 (M23, 5%)
Cameron Davis $6,500 (M61, 4%)
Derek Ernst $6,300 (M132, 1%)
Angus Flanagan $6,000 (M91, 1%)

Cash / SE / 3 Max Core Plays

Lucas Gloover $9,400 (M2, 23%)
Harris English $9,000 (M12, 22%)
Doc Redman $8,700 (M8, 23%)
Henrik Norlander $8,600 (M21, 14%)
Ryan Moore $8,100 (M14, 11%)
Troy Merritt $7,500 (M35, 6%)
Richy Werenski $7,400 (M20, 11%)
Vaughn Taylor $6,800 (M4, 3%)

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the 2020 3M Open. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!

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The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at The Memorial. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.

**I’m going hard with stars and scrubs approach this week. Soft pricing tends to lead to balanced builds.**

Players priced $10,000 and higher

***These players are good. Like most weeks, there’s really no need to explain why the top players are here. This week is no different, here is who I am playing.***

Rory McIlroy $10,700 (Model Rank #1, Projected Ownership 17%)
Bryson DeChambeau $11,100 (M5, 17%)

Players priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Xander Schauffele $9,200 (M7, 14%) – Schauffele finished T14 last week at the Workday Charity and is fifth in the field in strokes gained total over the last six weeks. With a T14 last year at The Memorial, Schauffele isn’t only a safe bet to make the cut but could be in the final pairing come Sunday.

Jon Rahm $9,300 (M12, 17%) – The talent has always been there and last Sunday, Rahm shot -8 to finish T27. That finish has catapulted his ownership but I don’t mind. This week I’ll be very overweight on Rahm this week.

Hideki Matsuyama $9,400 (M13, 15%) – Two top 20 finishes in his last two events out and three top 15 finishes at The Memorial, Matsuyama is one of the favorites. He started out strong last week, but his putter failed on the weekend. The speed of the greens should help a little with the flat stick and Matsuyama could find himself with another top 15 finish.

****Tiger Woods $9,000 (M17, 22%) – Ownership is just scary on him. I know he’s Tiger, but if he falters on his official return since the break, it’s a huge leverage spot****

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Patrick Reed $8,400 (M11, 11%) – It must be the name, that keeps pulling me back. Every other week, Reed burns me but when he gets hot, he can run through a field. Reed has four straight cuts made here at Jack’s place coming in. Reed in 2020 has averaged .74 strokes gained putting, in three of his last four events, he’s lost strokes on the green. If his putter reverts to average, this week could be very good for Reed.

Tony Finau $8,300 (M23, 14%) – He missed the cut last year, but prior he finished with three top 15 in four tries at The Memorial. Not exactly a lock as he’s missed a cut since the restart and hasn’t really payed off his price either. Don’t go overboard but Finau has the talent to compete with the best here.

Sungjae Im $8,200 (M28, 9%) – What has happened to Im? Sungjae was averaging .39 stroked gained on approaches this year before The PLAYERS (1 round). Since then he’s lost strokes in 4/5 tournaments on approach. Im is more of a play on talent, ownership and price.

Matthew Fitzpatrick $8,100 (M36, 6%) – I’m both surprised and delighted that Fitzpatrick’s ownership is projected so low. He finished T27 last week on the same course. Fitzpatrick has made the cut in four of his last five tournaments with two T15. He made his lone cut at The Memorial last year. I know around the green play comes in and Fitzpatrick isn’t the greatest, but the rest of his game is plenty sharp to overcome that.

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,500

Kevin Kisner $7,500 (M18, 3%) – Kisner is an interesting option. On one hand the approach game and to a lesser degree around the green game are important at The Memorial. While Kisner does have a solid all around game, those are his weak points in 2020. On the other, we have a possible sub 5% owned golfer who in his last tournament (Rocket Mortgage) came in third. On top of that has made the cut here four out of the last five years. Those cuts made include TWO top 10 finishes. Kisner isn’t playing as well as in previous years, but he has the goods to surprise people this week.

Joaquim Niemann $7,900 (M25, 16%) – Statistically speaking, Niemann is having his best year of his young career. A world class ball striker, few in the field can compete with his irons. The one problem with Niemann is it seems one part of his game fails him. Charles Schwab (ARG), Travelers (Putter) and Workday (ARG). When it does come together it’s fantastic, RBC (T5). With the inconstant all around game, his ownership is rather high which gives me some pause. At his price though, the upside is tremendous.

Doc Redman $7,600 (M32, 7%) – Speaking of ball strikers, Redman is another elite player with the approach aspect of his game. Despite losing strokes with the wedge and putter the last three weeks, Redman has finished T21, T11 & T21. As we all know putting is the highest varying aspect of one’s game. If his can get his putter hot Redman could find himself in the top 5 this week at The Memorial.

Players priced between $7,400 and $7,000

Brian Harman $7,100 (M21, 1%) – Oh Harman, we meet again. After the RBC I started playing Harman. As I’m sure you know he then proceeded to miss the cut the two following weeks. His game in theory should setup perfect for The Memorial. I’ve said that though for previous weeks and it didn’t matter. He’s coming in with zero traction from the industry, hence the projected ownership. Third time is a charm, right?

Kevin Na $7,200 (M24, 6%) – Na withdrew last tournament with a back injury, a tournament he was somewhat popular. Na has always lost strokes off the tee and with the extra long rough this week it could be an issue. With that said all other facets of his game match up wonderfully at The Memorial. Won’t need much to match the field and an injury risk is always in play, but I’ll take a shot on Mr Na this week.

Lucas Glover $7,100 (M40, 11%) – Another strong iron player, Glover has been getting some love and it makes sense. Since the restart Glover has averaged over a stroke per round in approach and has finished T23, T21, T20 & T21. He also has not missed the cut since 2015 at The Memorial. While his ownership/price ratio goes against my philosophy I’m going go heavy on Glover this week and double the field in ownership.

Brendan Steele $7,100 (M60, 3%) – Steele had a great tournament last week despite the T52 finish. He gained almost a stroke and a half over the field in approach. His problem was the putter, it got cold quick. Losing almost 2 strokes a round is problematic. Now granted Steele has never been a world class putter but his 2020 average is around zero. If the two stroke departure from his putter can regain his 2020 form I could imagine Steele landing inside the top 20.

Punt plays $6,900 and lower

*****Won’t have more than 10% of any of these guy in my 150 max*****

Nick Taylor $6,900 (M20, 2%)
Troy Merritt $6,600 (M37, 3%)
Talor Gooch $6,500 (M39, 4%)
Matthias Schwab $6,400 (M51, 2%)
Max Homa $$6,800 (M52, 4%)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout $6,800 (M79, 1%)
Tyler Duncan $6,300 (M88, 2%)

Cash / SE / 3 Max – Core plays

******None of my plays in this section will ever be at 10K and above or 6K and lower.******

Patrick Cantlay $9,800 (M3, 23%)
Webb Simpson $9,600 (M4, 15%)
Daniel Berger $8,700 (M9, 17%)
Abraham Ancer $8,500 (M8, 21%)
Paul Casey $7,900 (M19, 16%)
Kevin Streelman $7,600 (M16, 16%)
Ian Poulter $7,600 (M22, 11%)
Adam Hadwin $7,400 (M14, 9%)
Corey Conners $7,400 (M57, 7%)
Harris English $7,300 (M29, 8%)

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for The Memorial. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!

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Workday Charity Open DFS Picks: Initial Look

We’ve got an interesting set up for the next two weeks as the PGA Tour will have back to back tournaments on the same course.  This article we will be looking at the Workday Charity Open DFS picks. We will be looking for ball strikers yet again this week and we will be looking for a bit more accuracy off the tee relative to last week.  It’s only Monday and this is merely an initial look at golfers I like, but if last week wass any indication, my early picks set up well for success.  Stay tuned for a ton of content coming this week from the Win Daily Golf Team including more picks, ownership projections and modeling.  Please jump in Discord as these picks develop.  And watch the Win Daily Show Livestream and podcast tomorrow night at 8:30 for more on this tournament, including an early look at projected ownership. Get your DraftKings lineups reserved and ready to go!

Patrick Cantlay (10600) – If you’re looking for a guy who is great OTT and who is great on APP you have found him in Patrick Cantlay.  After a long lay off, he came back to the Travelers and finished 11th two weeks ago.  Cantlay finished 1st here last year and 4th the year prior.  It appears that he is picking his spots since the restart, and although he’ll be chalky, he picked wisely in joining the field this week.

John Rahm (10900) –  Rahm has been unimpressive since the restart, and frankly, feels relatively forgotten among the elite players.  After taking the week off last week, I expect an energized and precise golfer who we can trust to gain strokes in all departments.  I’m assuming Rahm will be less owned than most golfers in this elite price range.

Xander Shaufele (10200) – With my lineups likely being comprised of two elite golfers (stars and scrubs), I will probably be jamming in two elite golfers as my base this week.  Xander will be one of those three as he is also great OTT and on APP and has flirted with outright wins since the restart.  The real question here is which Xander shows up but I trust he’ll be focused and ready after taking a week off.  He was 14th here last year.

Collin Morikawa (9200) – May not be as chalky as normal as he’s coming off two very unimpressive performances (and his first missed cut, ever).  Add to that how hot Viktor Hovland is and that he is near Collin’s price range, and you may have some value here.  Morikawa took last week off and hopefully he’s in reset mode as prior to the mini-struggles, his iron play was excellent.  Happy to roll the dice here.

Adam Hadwin (8200) – Coming off a 4th place finish at the Rocket Mortgage this guy was a value machine last week and continues to present value this week.  Gains strokes in every category and is prone to having a hot putter.  While I think Hadwin will garner a lot of interest, I don’t think he’ll be as popular as Woodland who will be only one hundred dollars more expensive.  It’s noteworthy that Hadwin’s track record here is not very good.

Joel Dahmen (7700) – The strokes gained metrics jump off the page with Joel Dahmen and his results are bearing that out.  Dating back to the API, Dahmen has made four cuts in a row and three of those have been Top 20.  Like most golfers in this range, Dahmen is prone to the bad day here and there but his upside is too good to leave him out of your lineups.  Likely to be chalky in this range so find your GPP leverage elsewhere.

Corey Conners (7600) – Not going to lie, this one gives me a ton of trepidation (look it up, it’s a word you’re going to want to incorporate into your vernacular.  Yes, look that one up too).  But I can’t ignore Conners game OTT and on APP.  The good news for Conners is that there have been plenty of bad putters who have succeeded on this course.  Not a ‘core’ play for me but absolutely going to be included in some lineups. 

Ryan Armour (7400) – Feels like I’m chasing value instead of projecting value with this pick, but I just can’t ignore back to back tournaments with finishes in the top six.  His strokes gained metrics don’t jump off the page by any means, but he has looked locked in the past couple of weeks.  The price here seems reasonable and I think most people in this price range will be jumping on Tringale, Hubbard, McNealy or Sabbatini.  Armour is by far the least ‘sexy’ of those names.  Only a few sprinkles of Armour for me.

Matthew NeSmith (6800) – Coming off a missed cut at the Travelers we have a guy who has an inexpensive stock but has the numbers to make the cut and make some weekend noise.  An up and comer who is very good on APP and T2G.  NeSmith made two cuts immediately prior to the Travelers and I think he presents value at this low price.

Chesson Hadley (6500) – I’m back on the Hadley train this week.  He was one shot away from making the cut last week which is unimpressive but not terrible considering his price.  He’s still one of the better options in this range on APP and he’s not bad OTT either.  I’m looking for positive regression here and I trust ownership will be even lower this week after a missed cut last week. 

Henrik Norlander (6500) – He’s made two cuts in a row and is coming off a very impressive 12th place last week at the Rocket Mortgage.  Accuracy off the tee should factor into the analysis this week and Norlander was 1st last week in that department.  His approach game hasn’t been outstanding this year but he is in the positive category.  This is a guy that can do some damage for your lineups as long as he can be ok with the putter (a category where he typically loses strokes).

As mentioned above, The Win Daily team has plenty more to come.  Enjoy this initial look at targets and start reserving your lineups for the Workday Charity Open DFS.  Check out the upcoming articles, hope in the Win Daily Sports Expert Discord Chat, and the Win Daily Show with me and Michael Rasile at 8:30 pm tomorrow night on the @WinDailySports Twitter page!

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Building your bankroll in PGA DFS is as much about choosingthe right contest as it is choosing the right golfers.  I’m assuming that most readers of thisarticle do not need a breakdown of why the odds of success are extremely low incontests like the Millionaire Maker, which have a max entry of 150 lineups andsometimes a few hundred thousand total entries. Those contests are winnable, but are typically taken down by professionalswho are maxing out their 150 entry allotment and utilizing optimizers.  What most DFS players should be focusing onis the cash games (head to head and double ups) and the low max entry contests(typically single entry or three max).

In PGA head to head matchups and double ups ownership leverage is not a critical component and therefore you can construct a roster with golfers that you like, in spite of their anticipated popularity.  What you are looking to do in cash games is max out on golfers with high floors while factoring in, to a lesser extent, golfers with upside.  Winning these contests on a fairly routine basis is a great way to keep your bankroll steady while you take some bigger swings with the tournaments.  As stated above, it is critically important to stay disciplined and enter the tournaments that yield a realistic chance on a return.  And make no mistake about it, there are plenty of single entry and three max entry contests that will yield big gains (even in the lower entry fee contests). 

The key takeaway here is that you need to exercisediscipline and focus on slowly building your bankroll by entering PGA conteststhat are winnable.  This approach will allowyou to build your bankroll while also providing the opportunity to have somebig hits along the way.  Without thisdiscipline, you will enter the wrong contests and wonder why you’re not good atDaily Fantasy Sports.  The fact is, youmay be very good at DFS, but the best way to measure your DFS acumen is to makesure you are on an even playing field with those you are competing against. 

I should note I’m not saying you can’t throw an entry in here and there to a big GPP 150 max entry PGA contest, but just keep those instances limited and make sure that they only comprise approximately 10-20 percent of your weekly output. 

This is the 4th installment of Sia’s Secrets and it can be read in tandem with the 3rd installment here (Don’t be Afraid to Fade).

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Want to ask Josh questions about his DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks directly? Follow him on twitter at @dfs_noshame and hop in our discord chat!

The following analysis, DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks, is intended for DraftKings NASCAR DFS GPP purposes only (Toyota 500 at Darlington – May 20, 2020). The projections below include the official starting positions for each driver.

THE PICKS

JIMMIE JOHNSON ($9,100) – Johnson got to the front of the pack on Sunday, before crashing, and landing him in the 37th starting position for Wednesday. Johnson is projected to finish 12th, and provides significant positive place differential upside. Given the upside, it appears Johnson may be quite chalky, but go ahead and eat the chalk, and move on to your next driver selection.

WILLIAM BYRON ($8,900) – Bryon also found himself in trouble on Sunday, ending his day early, and securing the 34th start position for the Toyota 500. If Byron can remember this is not an iRace, settle in, and log some solid long-run laps – he can provide excellent positive place differential upside. Along with Johnson, Byron will most likely find his way into a lot of line ups Wednesday.

RICKY STENHOUSE JR. ($7,900) – Wrecky Ricky did not make it through the first lap before he ended up in the wall on Sunday, landing him in the 39th start position for the Toyota 500. With minimal downside risk and significant positive place differential upside, it appears Ricky could make it into a lot of lineups for this slate.

KEVIN HARVICK ($11,600) – Harvick won The Real Heroes 400 at Darlington Raceway this past Sunday, landing him in the 20th position to start the Toyota 500. Harvick had the best car on Wednesday, is the favorite to win on Sunday, provides positive place differential upside, and has the ability to lead laps. Plug Harvick in and watch him roll to a victory.

JOEY LOGANO ($9,400) – Logano has a shot at taking the checkered flag every time he fires up the engine. Logano will be starting 3rd with Ty Dillon and Ryan Preece in front of him, giving him a clear path to clean air and laps led. If Logano grabs a bunch of laps led, and finishes in the top five, he will be a great play.

KYLE BUSCH ($12,000) – Kyle Busch is the most expensive driver on the slate; starting 26th and projected to finish second, he’s well-positioned to provide positive place differential points. If you believe Kyle will lead a significant portion of laps, he’s a fine play.

ADDITIONAL OPTIONS

Alex Bowman, Kurt Busch, Erik Jones, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Cole Custer, Christopher Bell, Daniel Suarez

NOTE: Be sure to check the #nascar channel in Discord for any updates regarding DraftKings NASCAR DFS!

THE PROJECTIONS

(fastest laps, laps led not included*)

NO.DRIVERTEAMMANUFACTURER SALARY_DK STARTPROJECTED_FINSIHPROJECTED _DK_POINTS*
4Kevin HarvickStewart-Haas RacingFord$11,60020165
18Kyle BuschJoe Gibbs RacingToyota$12,00026266
11Denny HamlinJoe Gibbs Racing Toyota $10,70016354
19Martin Truex Jr. Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota $11,11015451
88Alex BowmanHendrick Motorsports Chevrolet $10,00019553
9Chase ElliottHendrick Motorsports Chevrolet $10,30017649
22Joey LoganoTeam PenskeFord$9,4003733
2Brad KeselowskiTeam PenskeFord$9,7008836
1Kurt BuschChip Ganassi RacingChevrolet$8,70018944
20Erik JonesJoe Gibbs Racing Toyota $8,500131037
24William ByronHendrick Motorsports Chevrolet $8,900341156
48Jimmie JohnsonHendrick Motorsports Chevrolet $9,100371257
12Ryan BlaneyTeam PenskeFord$8,30051323
42Matt KensethChip Ganassi RacingChevrolet$7,600111427
21Matt DiBenedettoWood Brothers RacingFord$7,00071521
8Tyler ReddickRichard Childress RacingChevrolet$7,700141626
10Aric AlmirolaStewart-Haas Racing Ford $7,40091719
6Ryan NewmanRoush Fenway RacingFord$6,40061814
14Clint BowyerStewart-Haas Racing Ford $7,30041910
3Austin DillonRichard Childress RacingChevrolet$7,200102014
41Cole CusterStewart-Haas Racing Ford $6,600222124
95Christopher BellLeavine Family RacingToyota$6,800242224
17Chris BuescherRoush Fenway RacingFord$6,100322330
38John NemecheckFront Row MotorsportsFord$6,20012248
96Daniel SuarezGaunt Brothers RacingToyota$6,100252519
47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.JTG Daugherty Racing Chevrolet $7,900392631
13Ty DillonGermain RacingChevrolet$5,900227-8
37Ryan PreeceJTG Daugherty RacingChevrolet$5,400128-11
43Bubba WallaceRichard Petty MotorsportsChevrolet$5,70021297
34Michael McDowellFront Row MotorsportsFord$5,80023307
66Timmy HillMBM MotorsportsToyota$4,900333115
77Ross ChastainSpire MotorsportsChevrolettbd29329
32Corie LaJoieGo Fas RacingFord$5,50031339
15Brennan PoolePremium MotorsportsChevrolet$4,80027343
27Gray Gaulding Premium Motorsports Ford$4,50028352
51Joey GasePetty Ware RacingChevrolet$4,60030362
00Quin HouffStarcom RacingChevrolet$4,70035375
53Garrett SmithleyRick Ware RacingChevrolet$5,20036384
78BJ McLeodBJ McLeod MotorsportsChevrolet$5,00038394

Join the Win Daily family today at https://windailysports.com/ and join our discord chat to get real-time updates for DraftKings NASCAR DSF!

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