Welcome to week 2 ladies and gentlemen! I’m hoping you all are reading this following two weeks of main slate cashes and you are all ready to top it off with some showdown fun. I’d like to welcome all of our new subscribers to the Win Daily family. You’ve come to the right place we have some of the absolute best projection models, articles, and discord chat in the industry. Now let’s finish this night strong with Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.20 Patriots at Seahawks. This is sure to be a fun one.
As we all know we need to get a little bit weird in order to take down a big showdown by yourself, you have to take stands on guys that you normally would not in a normal slate and take sub-optimal approaches. If your goal is to min cash go ahead and play the chalk and hop into the 50/50’s and double-ups. That’s not what this is. Historically speaking the type of showdown lineups that solo take-down a contest would make you shake your head. Fading studs, leaving tons of salary on the table, and negative correlations are a common site on these one game contests.
In week one I walked through a couple of scenarios and talked through the mindset that you had to have, focusing more on script and scheme and how you selected your players to fit the “story” that you are telling with your lineup and we had some fun doing it. I’m going to take a slightly different tact this week. We’ll still talk through some scenarios and plays but we’ll forgo the photos and I’ll have it listed in a little more of a formal way at the end than I had in week one.
Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.20 Patriots at Seahawks Vegas Script.
The first thing that sticks out to me. I can’t remember the last time I saw a sub 45 point total in a Patriots game, much less a Patriots game against another potent offense like the Seahawks but it is 2020 so we’ll roll with it. Seattle is favored by 4 so the Vegas scenario says that it will be competitive but New England will likely be playing from behind so how does that looks with a showdown lineup? Well for starters, as much as we want to project last years stats on this years team, they are nothing alike. Aside from Bill Belichick we have nothing to compare to, which means we have nothing. What we have is an absence of seven defensive players from the 2019 season including Patrick Chung, Dont’a Hightower, and Kyle Van Noy. As much as we want to say they are fine, last week was at home, against Miami, with an almost 38 year old Ryan Fitzpatrick, down his number one receiver. This contest will not be that, and my expectation is that Cam will be spending a lot more time in passing situations. I think that most builds will be pretty close with guessing the correct RB and WR on the Patriots side being the key to a top finish.
Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.20 Patriots at Seahawks Flex and Captains:
Patriots:
I was a little worried about how Cam Newton would look in New England but as of now he looks fully healthy from both the shoulder and foot injury that ruined his last couple of seasons so clearly he is in play and he’ll be the big chalk in my opinion just due to his physical running style but as I said earlier I see a lot more throwing from him tomorrow which aside from one fantastic season it really hasn’t been his strong suit so I prefer him in the flex based on that but if you are all in go for it, just know it will be crowded with him at captain. Julian Edelman and N’keal Harry are both going into tomorrow with the Q tag but it’s the Patriots so I think you’re fine with both but my preference is Harry just due to to Cam’s history of favoring bigger receivers over his career, Edelman and Harry had 7 and 6 targets respectively leading all others in targets albeit on a run heavy, read option game plan . I think you guys can see where I’m going in terms of my lean for RB. As much as one can predict with the Pats I think we see a James White game and I think we’ll see it early, Belichick knows there is a gap in offensive firepower and he might try to get up quick in an attempt to control the tempo and using White is his best option from a passing perspective. But it is the Pats, I am as much in the loop as you are. One very under the radar guy who is high risk but can set you apart from the crowd is Damiere Byrd. He didn’t get targeted once but he out snapped both Harry and Edelman and if they need to push the ball downfield he’ll need to be involved and he’s dirt cheap for salary savings.
Flex Plays: Julian Edelman, N’keal Harry, James White, Damiere Byrd, Cam Newton
Captains (Chalk): Cam Newton, Julian Edelman (Low Owned): N’keal Harry, James White
Seahawks:
This one is much easier in my opinion. While Bill Belechick’s specific schemes always vary his goal is the same. Taking the top one or two options, I think for Bill that means DK Metcalf and Russell Wilson‘s running ability. While I think you can tool around with any of the offensive weapons the three I’ll have the most of is Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson, and Russell Wilson. Wilson doesn’t need to run, it’s just an added benefit so he’s firmly in the bulk of my lineups. Additionally, David Moore Hauled in 3 of 3 targets so he is worth a look as a value option so long as Dorsett is not ready to come back from a foot injury and Greg Olsen is still as consistent as ever no matter who is throwing him the ball. It is only a matter of health for him, not skill.
Flex: DK Metcalf, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson, DK Metcalf, David Moore, Greg Olsen (if Phillip Dorsett sits)
Captain (Chalk): Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett (Low Owned): Greg Olsen, Chris Carson
Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.20 Patriots at Seahawks. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
