GPP

Week 9 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.8 Saints at Buccaneers

Chalk: Alvin Kamara $16,800

Pivot: Tom Brady $15,900

Contrarian #1: Drew Brees $15,000

Contrarian #2: Mike Evans $12,600

Contrarian #3: Michael Thomas $14,700

This one is incredibly interesting in terms of Showdown contests go with a number of narratives. Tom Brady and Drew Brees are going back and forth for the NFL’s touchdown record. Antonio Brown returns to action after a lengthy absence as does Michael Thomas. A little less talked about narrative is that Brees has been dealing with a right shoulder issue and I’m not sure of the severity, how long he’s dealt with it, or how it will affect him if at all. Vegas thinks that this will be a close shootout with a total of 50.5 and Tampa being 3.5 point favorites at home so they are thinking pickum. Alvin Kamara will always be chalk when he is in a showdown lineup and for good reason but I think if you were ever to go somewhere else at captain this is the week facing the best run defense in the NFL and arguably the best overall defense and with Michael Thomas looking to return to action potentially changing his target share just a bit through the air. I think the safest pivot will be Tom Brady with a full allotment of weapons, in primetime, after a rough outing against the Giants. The Saints secondary is nothing to be scared of and he will have what is arguably now the best WR core with Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller, and Tyler Johnson. Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate at tight end, and two backs in Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette who can run inside and catch the ball out of the backfield. I really don’t think the Saints have a chance to stop them, our problem is picking the spots where the points will come from. From the Saints offense we only have 3 primary options tonight in Kamara, Thomas, and Brees so I’m really not going to spend much time there. Overall I count 10 different players on DraftKings the we could consider in your captain spot so my list is not comprehensive by any means tonight, the five up top are just the safest options in my opinion. I think for high upside low owned options Chris Godwin will be extremely low owned given his finger injury and I think everyone is gonna wait a week before running AB out there.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.8 Saints at Buccaneers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

There are just a plethora of Bucs that are worth considering tonight so I will list my flex plays in order of most to least favorite today. If you run a script where the game will be close like Vegas predicts load on on Bucs pass catchers and if you are running a couple of scrips where the Bucs roll over the Saints like I am it would be good idea to run a pass catcher or two with either Fournette or Jones in a 4-2 split with either Kamara or Thomas and whoever you can fit in as your second Saints player.

Buccaneers: Rob Gronkowski, Chris Godwin, Ronald Jones, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, Ryan Succop, Bucs Defense, Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson, Cameron Brate

Saints: Emmanuel Sanders, Will Lutz, Jared Cook, Latavius Murray

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.8 Saints at Buccaneers . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

Week 8 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.1 Cowboys at Eagles

Chalk: Boston Scott $13,200

Pivot: Carson Wentz $17,700

Contrarian #1: Dallas Goedert $11,700

Contrarian #2: Ezekiel Elliott $16,200

Contrarian #3: Ben DiNucci $12,900/Eagles Defense $9,300 *****High Risk*****

The theme of the day for the majority of our games this weekend is weather and this Cowboys/Eagles contests is no different. With sustained winds over 15 MPH and gusts into the mid/upper 20’s we’re need to temper our expectations for offensive production. It’s not really like we were expecting much from Dallas and the Eagles offensive weapons have largely been limited all season so the 42.5 point total feels like a decent number albeit I’m in the mood for unders today and to this point I’m being rewarded for it. Chalk tonight is far and away Boston Scott tipping our projections at 30% in the captain spot and for good reason. Dallas can’t stop anything, he’s cheap, and the weather favors the running game as I already mentioned. If you want to pivot and you feel that the weather will not inhibit the pass and somehow Dallas can stay close (I doubt it), a pivot to Carson Wentz and pairing him with Travis Fulgham or Dallas Goedert will be a fine contrarian option. There is one other EXTREMELY contrarian path and it ties into the Eagles passing narrative, you pair Ben DiNucci with someone like Amari Cooper and pray the lack of film on him allows a few big plays in the first half before the Eagles make an adjustment. I really can’t stress this enough, this last option is high risk but it leverages heavily against the game script that 99 percent of people will be on tonight. If you use this one don’t @ me in discord to tell me it was a bad play. It’s showdown. If you aren’t playing all or nothing you shouldn’t be playing. Ezekiel Elliott is in my captains list for the obvious reason that he is their only real chance to win tonight. He needs 30+ touches at minimum to have a shot but to be honest I don’t trust Mike McCarthy’s ability to do anything correctly so play any Dallas players at your own peril.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.1 Cowboys at Eagles Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

You probably hate me right now if you’re a Cowboys fan but I’m gonna keep this fles section pretty straight forward. If you are expecting this game to be as bad as I am for Dallas tonight I would really only consider playing one Cowboy and only in a flex postion. My favorite two guys for that are Zeke or kicker Greg Zuerlein. Sorry Dallas.

Cowboys: (Do I have to?), Amari Cooper, Dalton Shultz, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Tony Pollard, Greg Zuerlein

Eagles: Travis Fulgham, Greg Ward, Richard Rodgers, Corey Clement, Jason Huntley, Jake Elliott

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.1 Cowboys at Eagles . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

Week 8 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 6 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.29 Atlanta at Carolina

Chalk: Teddy Bridgewater $15,900 / Matt Ryan $16,500

Pivot: Mike Davis $13,200

Contrarian #1: Todd Gurley $12,600

Contrarian #2: Robby Anderson $13,800

Contrarian #3: Calvin Ridley $15,300

***Huge Caveat*** There is an outside chance that Christian McCaffery returns to action tomorrow. I’m going to need to look at what is said about his workload if he does but I think that will move Davis to flex only at best.

We have ourselves a 51 point implied total with the Panthers as 2.5 point favorites but we do have a few questions. Will Christian McCaffrey be removed from IR prior to the game? If so what do we do with him and Mike Davis? What should we do with Julio Jones on a short week with the injuries that he has been dealing with? Last, but certainly not least is the weather. I live about 2 hours north of Charlotte and we are smack in the middle of the path for a Hurricane Zeta. It should largely be out of the area by kickoff but we are likely going to have terrible field conditions and some lingering wind in the area so we may need to downgrade our downfield pass catchers a bit but we’ll make that determination tomorrow closer to kickoff. My selections for captain and flex are under the impression that the field is in good shape and the weather is out of the area. Pop into discord tomorrow night and join our livestream and I’ll give you my final take. At this point I think that the chalk ownership will fall on Teddy Bridgewater with the slight savings and Atlanta’s continued secondary issues followed closely by Matt Ryan. Mike Davis and Todd Gurley are next respectively with -200 and -121 odds to score. Considering this game (weather permitting) will likely be a shootout give me Robby Anderson and Calvin Ridley as my two pass catching captain options. I’m hoping we get a little recency bias towards DJ Moore with his big week and we can get Anderson at better ownership and Ridley is my lean due to Julio nursing numerous injuries all season and being on short rest, nothing more than that.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.29 Atlanta at Carolina Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

As usual kickers are a good way to get cheap access for points. Unless weather is really bad I would not mess with either defense tomorrow.

Falcons: Julio Jones, Youngho Koo, Hayden Hurst, Olamide Zaccheaus, Russell Gage, Brian Hill

Panthers: DJ Moore, Joey Sly, Curtis Samuel, Ian Thomas

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.29 Atlanta at Carolina . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

Welcome to week 6 ladies and gentlemen! Hopefully we are all taking a look at this shortly after counting all of our winnings from the main slate (might still be waiting if it’s Fanduel). This is a shaping up to be a fun one with offensive firepower all the way around and a few questions along the way with guys like Le’Veon Bell and Zack Moss. Let’s not waste any time, here is Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.19 Chiefs at Bills.

Week 6 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 6 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.19 Chiefs at Bills

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Josh Allen $16,800

Pivot: Patrick Mahomes $19,500

Contrarian #1: Tyreek Hill $15,000/Travis Kelce $15,600

Contrarian #2: Mecole Hardman $10,200

Contrarian #3: Stefon Diggs $14,400

***High Risk Captain Play*** Zack Moss (DK only): $2,400

With two explosive offenses and a 55 point total it’s going to be tough narrowing down our captains. Most folks would assume that Patrick Mahomes would be the chalk, but in when I pulled up the models it matched what my gut was telling me and that was Josh Allen with his lower pricing for the same upside is looking like big chalk this week at around 21 percent for captain. So we are looking at a situation where we can get the QB of the best offense in the NFL at a discounted ownership in the captain spot, sign me up for that all day. As far as game script itself goes, a think we all agree that there are plenty of points to be had here. Sans one game Josh Allen has been playing at an MVP level and Buffalo, while better, is still giving up chunk plays through the air leaving me to believe that this will be more of a Tyreek Hill game than a Travis Kelce game so if you wanted to use a pass catcher in your captain spot he would be my guy. Sammy Watkins is out so Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson are firmly in play for value and Zack Moss will likely assume his roll in the offense splitting time with Devin Singletary and handling a large amount of the goal line work at and extremely deep discount. The only thing I don’t know yet is what is going to be Le’Veon Bell’s roll. I’d love to give you an answer but with so little time to practice and the fact that he isn’t listed on DK I have no idea how to handle Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Maybe we’ll get some clarity closer to kickoff but for now I can’t go there. When it comes to the Bills pass catchers I’m going to opt with using more John Brown and Cole Beasley that Stefon Diggs. Diggs’s price has spiked in Brown’s absence and although Brown still has the Q tag he was practicing in full this week aside from the final practice where he took it easy and logged limited work. Cole Beasley is is just getting it done every week based on his volume so even on days where his yardage totals aren’t huge he is always giving you plenty to work with giving you at least 11 DK points in each of the last four games. If you want to play Diggs go for it, I’m not saying fade by any stretch, I just prefer the value options so that I can use Allen and Mahomes but I’m positive his ownership at captain will be next to nothing so he is a contrarian play for sure. Finally, with this many points potentially being scored both kickers are firmly in play and there have been numerous showdowns this season where at least one kicker was in the winning lineup.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.19 Chiefs at Bills Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

Chiefs: Demarcus Robinson, Harrison Butker, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Byron Pringle

Bills: Cole Beasley, John Brown, Devin Singletary, Tyler Kroft

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.19 Chiefs at Bills . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

Welcome to week 6 ladies and gentlemen! Hopefully we are all taking a look at this shortly after counting all of our winnings from the main slate. We should have ourselves a unique game with a higher total but both quarterbacks showing that they can lay an egg in the bright lights of primetime. We are going to likely have to run multiple game scripts to have a chance at a high cash today but we can make it happen. Here we go with Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.18 Rams at 49ers.

Week 6 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 6 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.18 Rams at 49ers

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Raheem Mostert $14,700

Pivot: Jared Goff $16,200

Contrarian #1: George Kittle $15,600

Contrarian #2: Cooper Kupp $13,500/Robert Woods $12,600

Contrarian #3: Cam Akers $3,000 ***(High Risk)***

This one is interesting ladies and gentlemen. We have a 51 point total but both Jared Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo have shown that they can crap the bed when the lights are bright. So when building multiple lineups it would be a wise choice to put a few together assuming that one or both of them have a poor night by using kickers and defenses where it makes sense in your game script. My preferred approach will be to pick one one QB per lineup and using a pass catcher or two on the other side to get some exposure. My high risk captain is Cam Akers, they have been bringing him along slowly but he showed flashes last week on just nine carries. We know he should be the lead back, now we just need to hope the Rams have figured it out. Fingers crossed. Raheem Mostert also has the potential to completely shred this defense, Rams have given up over 100 yards in four of five games this year and if Jimmy G struggles again George Kittle and Mostert will likely be the only offensive 49ers worth rostering.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.18 Rams at 49ers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

49ers: 49ers D, Robbie Gould, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Kendrick, Bourne, Jimmy Garoppolo

Rams: Rams D, Sam Sloman, Tyler Higbee, Darrell Henderson

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.18 Rams at 49ers . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

Welcome to week 4 ladies and gentlemen! Hopefully we are all taking a look at this shortly after counting all of our winnings from the main slate. We have an interesting contest this evening with an injury riddled Niners team and Eagles who beyond Miles Sanders and two tight ends have no pass catchers. With a ton of injuries there should be points to be had for minimal cost and plenty of solid opportunities to take advantage of. Let’s not waste anymore time get into Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.4 Eagles at 49’ers.

Week 4 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 4 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown Eagles at 49’ers:

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Miles Sanders $13,800

Pivot: George Kittle $14,100

Contrarian #1: Carson Wentz $15,600/ Nick Mullens $14,700

Contrarian #2: Jerick Mckinnon $12,300

Contrarian #3: Jeff Wilson $10,500

***Bonus Play*** If you’re feeling frisky Deebo Samuel is stone min $300 and while not in full game shape may make enough plays to shatter the slate. Don’t forget about him.

One thing about you builds tonight that I’m seeing, salary shouldn’t be hard to navigate so you should be able to fit your favorites. Aside from what will be the big chalk in Miles Sanders at a surprisingly low price I largely like the Niners side for captain spot being 9 point favorites. I’ll be attacking the run game heavily on the Niners side. As far as the Eagles go I want no business with the offense beyond Miles Sanders, Zack Ertz, and Greg Ward. There is a clear case to be made for the Kickers as well as the San Francisco defense tonight as well due to the amount of injuries on the offensive side for the Eagles.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 10.4 Eagles at 49’ers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

Eagles: Greg Ward, Zack Ertz, Jake Elliot

49’ers: SF Defense, Kendrick Bourne, Robbie Gould, Ross Dwelley

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.4 Eagles at 49’ers. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

Welcome to week 4 ladies and gentlemen! Hopefully we are all taking a look at this shortly after counting all of our winnings from the main slate. We have another fantastic fantasy matchup this evening. We have a ton of injuries so there should be points to be had for minimal cost and plenty of solid opportunities to take advantage of. Let’s not waste anymore time get into Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.4 Falcons at Packers.

Week 4 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 4 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown Falcons at Packers:

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

*Game Note: I’m going under the assumption that Adams will remain out.

With the number of injuries for both teams something has to give, I’m not really sure how they’ll hit the 56.5 total but that’s why we play. I have the expectation that Green Bay is going very run heavy due to the injuries and they will likely be successful in doing so. Aaron Jones and even Jamal Williams are going to be prioritized in my lineups over most the Packers pass catchers sans MVS. Atlanta is a little trickier, they are also injured but to this point everyone is still playing and they are 9 point dogs so the most logical route is leaning on two pass catchers and Matt Ryan.

Chalk: Aaron Jones $16,200

Pivot: Aaron Rodgers $17,100

Contrarian #1: Matt Ryan $15,000

Contrarian #2: Marquez Valdez-Scantling $10,500

Contrarian #3: Todd Gurley $12,300

***Extra Captain Play: Calvin Ridley or Julio Jones (If you think the Vegas total is correct and you expect the Falcons to play from behind they both need to be considered even injured)

Stoweby’s Showdown for 10.5 Falcons at Packers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

To talk flex plays I need to talk script. The expectation according to the Vegas total of 56.5 and the -7 to the Packers the Falcons will be throwing a ton to catch up and the Packers will likely spend a large part of the second half grinding clock out. It makes a lot of sense that they run quite a bit either way given the number of receivers injuries for the Packers. The same could reasonably be said for the Falcons but it’s clear that they do not have the same luxury that the Packers half. So my script for the majority of my lineups will be pass catchers for the Falcons, a minimum of one Green Bay running back in every lineup (sometimes two), and only one Green Bay pass catcher maximum as I think they won’t be used a ton late.

Falcons: Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst, Brian Hill

Packers: Jamal Williams, Robert Tonyan, Jace Sternberger, Malik Taylor

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.5 Falcons at Packers. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

Welcome to week 3 ladies and gentlemen! We have ourselves what would have been an amazing contest but two key injuries knocked us down a notch. It’s still an interesting game with an interesting narrative and a pretty concentrated played pool. I’m let’s not waste anymore time and get into Stoweby’s Showdown for 9.27 Packers at Saints!

Week 3 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 3 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown Packers at Saints:

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Alvin Kamara $17,700 Aaron Jones $17,100

Pivot: Aaron Rodgers $16,500

Contrarian #1: Latavius Murray $4,200

Contrarian #2: Marquez Valdez-Scantling $10,200

Contrarian #3: Jared Cook $11,400

First thing and I think it’s not a surprise that Alvin Kamara and Aaron Jones are going to be 1a and 1b in terms of ownership both overall and in the captain spot. Aaron Rodgers is without his top overall weapon as is Drew Brees which limits both teams due to lack of depth at the position. You will be hard pressed to find many lineups tonight who don’t fit both guys into it even at those high prices. Vegas currently has Green Bay as 3.5 point dogs which with the way they have looked thus far feels off. I know it’s the Superdome, but it’s an empty Superdome. At first glance I felt like this should be a pick-um and I’m standing by that. If you noticed above there is one top player that I don’t have as a potential captain and he just so happens to be the 41 year old QB who only attempted one throw of more than 20 yards last week in a game where they were trailing for the majority of the second half. It’s clear, Brees needs Thomas to be effective and in order to win they will need a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray to accomplish that tonight. I think Jared Cook will be used a good deal more in the short passing game as a second option to Alvin this week as it looks like even crossing routes are becoming too difficult for Drew. Even without Davante Adams though it appears that Marques Valdez-Scantling has improved a good deal over last year and will at least warrant a look as a contrarian captain.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 9.27 Packers at Saints Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

To talk flex plays I need to talk script. I do expect this to stay very close and that is due to the lack of out number one receivers. Rodgers can still get a few passes off to a guy like Allen Lazard and even a Jace Sternberger or Robert Tonyan in order to save some salary which we need to pay up for our studs. I am however planting my flag today on Drew Brees. if I were to make ten lineups tonight I would have Drew in a max of two. His upside looks severely limited based on his price and I really think that money is better spent elsewhere. Mainly Kamara and Murray. Everyone is ready to say Green Bay’s run defense is finally decent. Um no it isn’t, they are still vulnerable it just so happens the the games were never in a positive script where the Vikings and Lions could continue to run it. Over the first two weeks they’ve given up 223 yards on 43 carries and 3 touchdowns. Sean Payton is smart enough to know that and will run the tandem as well as a few trick plays for…….Taysom Hill (I’m rolling my eyes) and end arounds for Emmanuel Sanders. I see this being a very ground heavy approach today and we may go well under the total of 52 so kickers and defenses are firmly in play today.

Saints: Emmanuel Sanders, Taysom Hill, Saints D, Will Lutz

Packers: Allen Lazard, Jace Sternberger, Robert Tonyan, Packers D, Mason Crosby

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.27 Packers at Saints. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!