Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 8 Cowboys at Vikings 10.31.
If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.
***Quick shoutout to our subscriber Warner Bros who in just a few short weeks with us has binked in two different showdown slates leading to over 34K in winnings. Keep it up and welcome to the team!
The game script tonight still is not known as of 3:00 PM EST. It all hinges on the calf of one Dak Prescott so these plays can change drastically based on whether or not Prescott suits up. Currently, I am writing this under the assumption that Prescott suits up. If Dak end up being out or if you think he gives it a go and leaves the game early I am recommending caution on Cowboy’s receivers and giving a bump to both Elliott, Pollard, and Schultz.
A healthy Dalvin Cook listed as the 5th priced player in a showdown slate is simply a mispricing on the part of DraftKings and due to that error, we will likely see him as the highest rostered captain in the game. When healthy he is a near-lock for 20+ carries and 4-6 targets in the passing game and his props tell me that Vegas feels the same with a 3.5 catch prop with 114.5 total yards and the best odds to score on the game at -150. Add that up and we have a 21 DK point total as the baseline
The only reason Dak isn’t at the top of this list today is the lingering concern with if calf injury but at the end of the day if you expect him to suit up and play he is a prime candidate for a pivot captain. Even if he lacks mobility tonight he has a great offensive line, a wide variety of offensive skill players to throw to, and the Vikings aren’t the type of defense that strikes fear into the hearts and minds of offensive coordinators. If you get a chance, watch him in pregame warmups and get a feel for how he looks before locking him in. You know the cameras will be following him around during the warmups
Lamb went ham in week six bringing in 9 of 11 targets for 149 yards and two TD’s against a defense that is arguably better in the New England Patriots. With Dak nursing an injury he is going to lead to lean on his playmakers to make up for his limited mobility. That leads me to believe that we are going to see a little more in the short passing game to keep Dak safe increasing the target valume for Ceedee as he will be used as a safety valve in the middle of the field.
I have been going back and forth on Lamb or Jefferson as my first contrarian play but one thing led me to go with Ceedee over Justin. Primetime Kirk Cousins is a thing. Whenever the spotlight shines on him he tends to underperform more often than not so I will have a bit more Ceedee than Justin in my captain spot. Well, I guess two things, I also have the slightest bit of concern that Diggs may be able to hang with Jefferson just enough to slow him down a bit. Not stop, but slow down.
The number of people shouting that Zeke was washed after week one was mind-boggling. After five straight games with no less than 17.7 DK points people have quietly taken their L and gone home. Zeke is good folks, it doesn’t matter if you think Pollard is better, Jerry loves the guy, and he is still the number one. As I mentioned with Ceedee I expect the Cowboys to script their offensive game plan to keep their franchise quarterback safe if he suits up. What that means for most teams is a heavy dose of the run game and Zeke should reasonably be expected to gash the Vikings front.
I am not going to be running the kickers or defenses in my main builds tonight. But, if you are going to run a lineup or two out there where you expect primetime Cousins to rear his ugly head, or if you think the calf injury causes Dak to struggle or leave the game early and Cooper Rush takes over I can see a case where playing the defenses or kickers as viable. There is a reasonable, albeit small chance that this game falls completely flat due to the quarterback situation tonight. If you are building 10+ lineups, consider doing one or two builds where you script one or both teams struggling to give yourself a complete contrarian build in a 51 total game.
It is time folks and I hope that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 8 Cowboys at Vikings 10.31 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
Thursday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick with all of the big name players missing time, and potential value options available to us inwhat should be a fast paced contest. Take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Packers at Cardinals 10.28.
If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.
This is an interesting game, especially for a Thursday. With a 51 total and two of the higher octane offenses in the league, you would think that fitting your studs would be tough. But, with Davante Adams and Allen Lazard out for covid related reasons and Deandre Hopkins not practicing any this week and being a true game-time decision, we have a lot of value options available to us this evening. The -6 feels a little high but to be honest that may be some bias on my end being a Packers fan. They should be able to keep up with the Cardinals in this contest even with Adams being out, but we shall see.
Week in and Week out Kyler Murray is the safest QB on the board, providing a floor/ceiling combination that is one of the best in the league, so it is no surprise that he will be the highest owned captain on the evening. Green Bay has only played against two of what I would consider as “running quarterbacks” in Justin Fields and Taylor Heinicke. Justin rushed six times for 43 yards and Taylor when 10 for 95 on the ground. Murray is better than both in that regard so a day where he exceeds 100 yards would not be a shock to me in any regard.
While it is very fair to target the Green Bay receivers in a contest where Davante Adams and Allen Lazard are out due to Covid protocols Rodgers has shown a habit to lean more heavily on players that he is comfortable with over-targeting “no named” guys who are filling in. I am expecting Jones to be the focal point of this offense and be the highest scoring Packer in all likelihood. Week four of last season Davante Adams and Adam Lazard missed, in the same way, they will tonight and two things happened, Robert Tonyan caught 6 of 6 targets for 98 yards and 3 TD’s, and Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams spent most of the day running routes as WR’s and caught 13 of 13 targets combined for 135 yards and a touchdown with neither player exceeding 55% on the snap share. I love Dillon and what he can do, but Jones is the better route runner and pass-catching back of the two, so I do not think Green Bay can win without Jones seeing an 80% or more snap share this evening.
There aren’t many times you see Aaron as a contrarian play but with Kyler Murray only slightly cheaper and the lack of his top two pass-catching options out, I do not think many people are going to go this route. We can use that to our advantage as Rodgers was in this same scenario last season and he went nuts, throwing for 324 yards and four touchdowns against the Falcons in week four with no Davante or Lazard. Sure, there has been a little regression but it always seems like, on the days where people doubt A-Rod, he goes out there and has a huge day just to prove people wrong. One thing not being considered as well is that Rodgers should have more time to throw than you would expect tonight with JJ Watt out and defensive tackle Rashard Lawrence expected to miss. If Aaron gets time, there is no defensive back in the league that can stop him from hitting his targets.
The only reason people even targeted Tonyan in seasonal this year was due to this same scenario last season. In a game with no Adams or Lazard, Robert caught 6 of 6 for 98 yards and three scores against a hapless Falcons team. The Cards are much better defensively than the Falcons but they are historically bad against tight ends (they are #1 in DVOA in 2021, but they have not played a single competent TE this season), and as I just mentioned, they are going to have a depleted pass rush so plays should have time to develop. I doubt that I am the only person to see the parallels to last year but I think we can get Tonyan at a pretty nice ownership tonight with that red #1 next to his name tonight.
Replace with D-Hop if he suits up. If Nuk sits, Kirk should be in line for a huge night with Green Bay’s defense becoming one of the worst in the league overnight when Jaire Alexander went down this season. The entire scheme falls apart when he is not on the field and the coaching staff in Wisconsin has shown themselves incapable of making adjustments when injuries happen on the defensive side. They sit firmly near the bottom against #1 and 2 receivers in terms of DVOA. Kirk is second in the team in catches, targets, catch rate, and TD’s when Hopkins is on the field while only playing 66% of the snaps. With the 21% target share potentially being up for grabs and the big play ability of Kirk his ceiling is immense today.
With the amount of value we have in this contest tonight I truly do not see a need to target the defenses or the kickers for some cheap points. There should be a plethora of cheap options in this 51 total game that have the ability to have a big night. If you are running a one off game script where you think the Packers struggle without Adams you can use the Cardinals defense, but do so sparingly please.
It is time folks and I hope that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Packers at Cardinals 10.28 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
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