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Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

El Camaleon Golf Course

7,100 Yards – Par 71 – Greens: Paspalum

The best way to describe El Camaleon Golf Course would be as an exposed oceanside track that features jungle terrain and swampland. That is a unique mixture since you get three different textures with that description, but golfers will need to traverse various hazards, including those of the architectural variety.

There are very few locations on the PGA Tour where distance doesn’t hold an advantage over precision, but nearly 65 percent of all top-10 finishers during the previous eights years have been shorter than average off the tee. It’s not to say that distance is a negative, but accuracy players will undoubtedly see a boost. One of the reasons for that has to do with golfers clubbing down to avoid the plethora of hazards that come into play. The rough is virtually non-existent, but the misses do compound.

While scoring might be easy for the winners, this track isn’t a given! The point gets enhanced when we dive a little deeper into the actual metrics, as El Camaleon ranks near the top-10 on tour every season in birdie or better percentage and double bogey or worse rate. Mistakes will be made when balls get sprayed, and golfers can start to feel as if they are trapped in a tiny bubble once things begin to go wrong. The greens typically register between a 10-11 on the Stimpmeter, which is extremely slow, and we receive that set up so the surface doesn’t get away from the grounds crew if winds do play a factor. Overall, golfers that can find fairways off the tee and pinpoint their irons from a shorter proximity range should be at an advantage, and the ability to play on a slow surface should only help matters.

  • Weighted Ball-Striking (25%) – That is something I geared heavily towards accuracy when making my total driving stat, and I then took a smaller percentage on GIR and added that to my total driving to come up with a ball-striking number.
  • Weighted Proximity (15%) – That encompassed all proximity values, but 60% of the weight came from 0-150 yards.
  • Weighted Scoring (10%) – As I previously noted, El Camaleon ranks inside the top-10 in both birdie or better percentage and double bogey or worse rate. I wanted to find golfers that would not only score but also protect against a big number.
  • Weighted Par-Four (15%) – A lot of these holes are going to be your most difficult, and I did come back around on adding a percentage of bogey avoidance here to account for whatever I lost when doing a heavier breakdown of birdies over bogeys in the weighted scoring 
  • Weighted Par-Five (12.5%) -These are reachable in two and have been the number one decider between the three par totals in figuring out top-10 finishers over the last few years. 
  • Weighted Slow-To-Average Greens (12.5%) – That is a mixture of strokes gained total and putting on a slower surface. Some notable top-10 finishers there were Hadwin, Hatton, Matt Jones, Justin Thomas, Kuchar, Seamus and Ancer.
  • Strokes Gained Total At Courses Under 7,200 Yards (10%) – I considered adding in scoring at easy courses to along with it, but the mistakes compound at the track, making how someone plays at a shorter track more relevant.

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Justin Thomas (11,200) – Justin Thomas was the number one golfer in my model from an overall rank sense. Thomas did drop to fifth when looking for just upside, which is a little discouraging for the best player in the field, but most of that comes down to him being inaccurate off the tee. Thomas should be able to club down, and I think Andy Lack was spot on when he tweeted eight of Thomas’ 14 PGA Tour wins have come between October and January. The American is the number one golfer in this field when given a slower surface, and as would be expected, the 28-year-old ranks first in my weighted proximity category. A lot is pointing in his direction when we remove one trait he might be able to get around because of the length he can carry his irons, and it is hard to ignore his potential to lap the field if he is dialed-in.

Viktor Hovland ($10,900) – I have been saying for the last few months that Viktor Hovland is a hot putter away from winning again. Hovland ranks third in my upside model and has averaged 3.3 strokes with his irons over his last 10 trackable starts. The driver has been just as good, totaling positive strokes in 21 of his past 23, and he finally showed some life with his flat stick at the CJ Cup. The 24-year-old tends to run hot-and-cold with that aspect of his game, but he has followed up a positive showing on the greens with another the last four times he has started a new streak.

Abraham Ancer ($10,700) – If you listen to any of my shows regularly, you will know that I am never an Abraham Ancer guy. I find him to be overpriced because of his popularity throughout the industry, but I don’t believe that is the case here this week. Ancer has shown when he likes a particular track that he often keeps the run going, and we see that here with him having produced four top-21 results in a row. Tournaments like this where the top-three golfers in price are also the top-three on my board make it tough to avoid taking a chalky approach, but I believe you can always pivot elsewhere. I don’t mind a stars-and-scrubs strategy in this spot, and you can find yourself in a unique build by taking many different routes.

GPP Pivot – Tony Finau $10,600 – Finau has been erratic at this course with two top-16s and two missed cuts over his last four attempts, but I’ve noticed he performs better on these shorter tests sometimes than the bomb-and-gouge properties. That is not exactly what you would expect, but the data spells it out that way too, ranking fifth in this field at courses under 7,200 yards.

$9,000 Range

Scottie Scheffler ($9,900) – Scottie Scheffler could just as easily have been in the $10,000s if he didn’t provide two questionable showings in Vegas. I’d be more concerned if one factor of his game kept trending in the wrong direction, but this feels to be more of a situation where he just wasn’t clicking on all cylinders. I assume he will put the pieces together soon, and I find it relevant that he is a favorite in head-to-head matchups against Brooks Koepka, Billy Horschel and Tyrrell Hatton.

Favorite Pivots: Patrick Reed ($9,500), Shane Lowry $9,300 -Both are negative for me in price versus rank, but I don’t mind taking shots since it won’t take much for me to get overweight at five percent.

$8,000 Range

Cameron Tringale ($8,900) – If you are trying to figure out a spot to get contrarian, Cameron Tringale looks to be the natural GPP pivot off of Aaron Wise. Tringale’s course form doesn’t give you an idea that his upside might be as high, but the 34-year-old is a different golfer this season than he has been in his career. Tringale ranks fourth in my overall model and inside the top-40 of all weighted statistics.

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,800) – Matthew Fitzpatrick is the third-ranked golfer in this field in moderate-to-severe wind and is just a week removed from being the top-priced player on the board at the Bermuda Championship. Fitzpatrick isn’t necessarily a value for me on the surface, but any course that mimics Harbour Town will be one where I give him a second look.

Russell Henley ($8,200) – Russell Henley has been surprisingly bad at the course with two missed cuts and 29th, but as I have said numerous times throughout the week, I am not overly concerned with course history at this particular stop. Despite his popularity, I would use Henley as a GPP-only play because of some of the negative past trends, but he is top-10 in this field when it comes to weighted proximity, ball-striking, bogey avoidance and par-four scoring.

Mito Periera ($8,100) – Consider this a good price for a golfer who has demonstrated a high floor early in his career, and the fact we are getting him at a price tag outside of the top-20 golfers only enhances his ceiling since we don’t need as much upside for him to zoom past his built-in salary cap.

Other Thoughts: Sergio Garcia $8,700 and Maverick McNealy $8,500 are both in in play

$7,000 Range

Seamus Power $7,700 –   I know I keep stressing this point, but Seamus Power is an elite statistical golfer and has been for the past year.

Emiliano Grillo $7,500 – It is hard to say much bad about Emiliano Grillo at this track. I don’t love the popularity, but his four top-15 finishes in five tries can’t be ignored.

Ian Poulter $7,500 – Ian Poulter looks to be one of the better contrarian pivots. The Englishman is currently a small favorite over Seamus Power in a head-to-head bet, which is relevant since he is four times less popular. I like playing both but don’t forget to work the Poulter into your builds.

Brian Harman $7,300 – Similar mentality to the concept I just said with Ian Poulter. Brian Harman is -110 versus Emiliano Grillo at ownership projections of two percent versus 14 percent. Once again, find a way to work in both, but there is an opportunity to create leverage to your lineups.

Kevin Streelman $7,200 – I have a proper price on Kevin Streelman being in the mid $8,000s. The American is a positive value for me across the board in all game types, although the real value is coming from his upside in GPPs. Streelman ranked 10th for me from a statistical perspective and is 14th in that weighted proximity range I ran to mimic the event. 

Additional Thoughts: Justin Rose $7,900 (GPP), Joaquin Niemann $7,800, Talor Pendrith $7,200, Joel Dahmen $7.000, Brendan Steele $7,000 and Henrik Norlander $7,000 are all in play for me.

$6,000 Range

Chris Kirk ($6,700) – It didn’t quite work for me at the ZOZO when I went overweight on Chris Kirk, but this is another potential opportunity to grab him under the radar. Kirk is the largest model differential for DraftKings that I have, and he has been good at this property with four top-50s in his last four trips, including a seventh-place result in 2016.

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Tom Hoge $6,900, Ryan Palmer $6,900, Charles Howell III $6,900, Scott Piercy $6,900, Guido Migliozzi $6,900, Stephan Jaeger $6,800, Ryan Moore $6,700, Graeme McDowell $6,600, Chez Reavie $6,600, James Hahn $6,400, Brian Stuard $6,300, Eugenio-Lopez Chacarra $6,000 – I love the $6,000 range this week.

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Mayakoba: Initial Picks

Sia

The PGA Tour heads to El Camaleon Golf Course, in beautiful Riviera Maya, Mexico this week for the Mayakoba Championship. Your past two winners were Victor Hovland (2020) and Brendan Todd (2019). The course itself sets up as a par 71, at just over 7000 yards. Greg Norman designed this course and it features a little bit of everything. As a Mayan inspired paradise we’ll see tropical jungles, Caribbean winds, breathtaking coastal views of Cozumel, and all the sand, canals, and mangroves to go with it. Our loaded field of 132 golfers will need to bring their “A” game as the top scores here in recent years have topped 20 under par, and only the top 65 (and ties) will make the cut.

I’m not seeing distance as a must here as there are several holes that will require layup tee shots. With virtually no rough at El Camleon driving accuracy is a must. Missing the fairways will be extremely penal landing you OB, in thick mangroves or down an embankment into one of the many canals lining this course. Safely on the fairways, the second shot will be easier than normal to the Paspalam greens that are very standard and basic. This will leverage out the putting field to both good and bad putters, I’ll also be putting a little less emphasis on approach than normal.

Key Metrics (in order)

Driving Accuracy

SG:OTT (off the tee)

SG:APP (approach)

Birdie or better (BOB)

SG:P (putting)

Par 4 450-500

par 3 150-175

Initial Picks

Abraham Ancer ($10700): I’m going to chalk his missed cut at The Shriners up to “shaking the rust off” after his monster finish to the end of last season and his run for The Tour Championship. Ancer bounced back nicely finishing 14th at The CJ Cup. Returning to his Mexican homeland after shaking the monkey off his back that was his first PGA victory. He’ll be one of the most popular players both on the course and at Draftkings. Extremely accurate OTT and checking almost every box on his way to finishes of T12, T8, T21, T9 is his last 4 trips here. It’s chalk I’m going to eat. Abe will be in my main lineup.

Victor Hovland ($10900) What’s not to like? He’s the returning champion at Mayakoba for a reason. He DID miss the cut in his first 2 tries here, but has made steady progress on his putting. If young Vic doesn’t get caught out in the nightlife with Brooks and posse, I expect him to compete.

Aaron Wise ($9600): 5 straight top 26 finishes dating back to mid August, including a 5th and an 8th in his last 2. Wise has a great all around game, if he can sink a putt or two, he’s going to be on the leader board come Sunday. Finished 2nd here last year and T10 in 2019, sandwiching a missed cut in between in 2020.

Russell Henley ($8200) Short and accurate. Just what I’m looking for here at Mayakoba. If he can get his inconsistent putter to cooperate, he’ll be in the mix. A couple of missed cuts following a T19 in 2019 has me a bit nervous, but other than The (British) Open, and The Memorial, you’ll have to go back to the Valspar at the beginning of last May to find a missed cut. He’s been solid all around and under priced in my opinion.

Mito Pereira ($8100) Oh how the mighty have fallen. Let’s just pray the ownership did as well after burning a lot of folks with some sub standard results. Still owns one of the best all around games on tour right now. I expect theses Paspalam greens to help out his putting woes. Go back to the well here this week.

Carlos Ortiz ($7600) Another crowd favorite Ortiz returns to his home of Mexico where he finished T8, T2 in his last 2 tries here. Game has been solid with only 3 missed cuts in his last 14 tournaments. Another guy with a struggling putter looking for some relief from these greens. Solid core play at this price.

Emiliano Grillo ($7500) You should start to see a theme here. Another great golfer in need of a course to ease his putting issues. Welcome back to Mexico Emiliano. His last 5 south of the border, T8, T41, 15, T9, T10… just stupid cheap at this price. My 2nd click on the board the Ancer.

This is where I have to stop. From this point down there are a TON of guys that could either finish top 10, or miss the cut. I’ll list a few of my favorites FOR THIS COURSE.

Russell Knox ($7300), Kevin Streelman ($7200), Taylor Pendrith ($7200), Adam Long ($7000), Charles Howell III ($6900), LOVE Vincent Whaley ($6700), Greyson Sigg ($6600), LOVE Chez Reavie ($6600).

That’s all I got for now. I’m gonna throw one more thing at you. My CRAZY GPP SHOT. This kid no one knows (with a long name to write out), Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra (flat min $6K). He’s 5th in the PGA TOUR University Ranking. The top 5 at the end of the collegiate season earn Korn Ferry status for the upcoming summer tour. He recently finished T45 at The Sanderson Farms Championship.

WinDaily has 4 other tools coming at you later this week to help with your process of building winning Draftkings lineups. Check out the live show on Tuesday night with Sia, Joel, and Spencer and special guest @PGATout. Both Antonio and Spencer also release articles later in the week as well. Check back on Wednesday evening to catch Steven’s Mayakoba ownership article to help you nail down those final low-owned guys that’ll get you that big GPP win. As always, make sure to stop into the WinDaily Discord room to ask questions from our stellar PGA team, or just compare notes with some of the other members of our family.

If you haven’t already, follow WinDailysports on YouTube and via Apple podcasts to check out ALL the content at WinDailySports.com. We’ve been hitting big with our NFL, NBA, and NHL content and you’re going to want to be part of that.

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Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 8 Cowboys at Vikings 10.31.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

***Quick shoutout to our subscriber Warner Bros who in just a few short weeks with us has binked in two different showdown slates leading to over 34K in winnings. Keep it up and welcome to the team!

Vegas Script: Total: 51, Vikings -3

The game script tonight still is not known as of 3:00 PM EST. It all hinges on the calf of one Dak Prescott so these plays can change drastically based on whether or not Prescott suits up. Currently, I am writing this under the assumption that Prescott suits up. If Dak end up being out or if you think he gives it a go and leaves the game early I am recommending caution on Cowboy’s receivers and giving a bump to both Elliott, Pollard, and Schultz.

Captains:

Chalk: Dalvin Cook, $14,100

A healthy Dalvin Cook listed as the 5th priced player in a showdown slate is simply a mispricing on the part of DraftKings and due to that error, we will likely see him as the highest rostered captain in the game. When healthy he is a near-lock for 20+ carries and 4-6 targets in the passing game and his props tell me that Vegas feels the same with a 3.5 catch prop with 114.5 total yards and the best odds to score on the game at -150. Add that up and we have a 21 DK point total as the baseline

Pivot: Dak Prescott, $16,800

The only reason Dak isn’t at the top of this list today is the lingering concern with if calf injury but at the end of the day if you expect him to suit up and play he is a prime candidate for a pivot captain. Even if he lacks mobility tonight he has a great offensive line, a wide variety of offensive skill players to throw to, and the Vikings aren’t the type of defense that strikes fear into the hearts and minds of offensive coordinators. If you get a chance, watch him in pregame warmups and get a feel for how he looks before locking him in. You know the cameras will be following him around during the warmups

Contrarian #1: Ceedee Lamb, $14,700

Lamb went ham in week six bringing in 9 of 11 targets for 149 yards and two TD’s against a defense that is arguably better in the New England Patriots. With Dak nursing an injury he is going to lead to lean on his playmakers to make up for his limited mobility. That leads me to believe that we are going to see a little more in the short passing game to keep Dak safe increasing the target valume for Ceedee as he will be used as a safety valve in the middle of the field.

Contrarian #2: Justin Jefferson, $15,000

I have been going back and forth on Lamb or Jefferson as my first contrarian play but one thing led me to go with Ceedee over Justin. Primetime Kirk Cousins is a thing. Whenever the spotlight shines on him he tends to underperform more often than not so I will have a bit more Ceedee than Justin in my captain spot. Well, I guess two things, I also have the slightest bit of concern that Diggs may be able to hang with Jefferson just enough to slow him down a bit. Not stop, but slow down.

Contrarian#3: Ezekiel Elliott, $13,800

The number of people shouting that Zeke was washed after week one was mind-boggling. After five straight games with no less than 17.7 DK points people have quietly taken their L and gone home. Zeke is good folks, it doesn’t matter if you think Pollard is better, Jerry loves the guy, and he is still the number one. As I mentioned with Ceedee I expect the Cowboys to script their offensive game plan to keep their franchise quarterback safe if he suits up. What that means for most teams is a heavy dose of the run game and Zeke should reasonably be expected to gash the Vikings front.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 8 Cowboys at Vikings 10.31:

  1. Dalvin Cook
  2. Dak Prescott
  3. Ceedee Lamb
  4. Justin Jefferson
  5. Ezekiel Elliott
  6. Kirk Cousins
  7. Adam Thielen
  8. Amari Cooper
  9. Dalton Shultz
  10. Tony Pollard
  11. KJ Osborn
  12. Cedrick Wilson
  13. Tyler Conklin
  14. Greg Zuerlein
  15. Greg Joseph
  16. Blake Jarwin
  17. Noah Brown
  18. Alexander Mattinson
  19. Cowboys D
  20. Vikings D

Kickers and defenses:

I am not going to be running the kickers or defenses in my main builds tonight. But, if you are going to run a lineup or two out there where you expect primetime Cousins to rear his ugly head, or if you think the calf injury causes Dak to struggle or leave the game early and Cooper Rush takes over I can see a case where playing the defenses or kickers as viable. There is a reasonable, albeit small chance that this game falls completely flat due to the quarterback situation tonight. If you are building 10+ lineups, consider doing one or two builds where you script one or both teams struggling to give yourself a complete contrarian build in a 51 total game.

It is time folks and I hope that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 8 Cowboys at Vikings 10.31 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Bye weeks are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 8 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out Stix’s GPP Play article, as he will provide his own insights on some of the plays below and will likely have some guys that I didn’t even consider. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 8 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.31

***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***

Derrick Henry gets his own spot at the top every week because he is in a class all his own. He will always carry ownership but he has a week in, week out ceiling that is unrivaled in fantasy football. If you can fit him and want to play him I will not talk you off of it. Henry is under 10% this week so he is extremely viable in GPP’s. All Hail the King!

GPP:

Najee Harris, $7,500DK/$9,000FD: 8-10%

As of Friday the following Browns defensive players are out or limited and could be out: Richard LeCounte III (safety), Denzel Ward, (cornerback), Jadeveon Clowney (defensive end), A.J. Green (cornerback), Malik Jackson (defensive tackle), Takkarist McKinley (defensive end). Because of that, the little red 4 next to Najee’s name on DraftKings causes me zero concern. Ignoring that Broncos game where Fangio decided to run his backs a total of 12 times even then Javonte Williams caught 6 passes for 32 yards and a TD) the Browns have been shredded by opposing running backs. Austin Ekeler had 5 catches, 119 total yards and 3 TD’s and the combination of James Connor and Chase Edmonds had 20 for 117 yards and caught 4 of 5 targets. Najee Harris is the league leader in offensive snaps per game for RB’s (57.2), Targets per game (7.7), second in catches (34), and third in FPPG (20.2). The depleted Browns defense is a spot that I am looking to target in some of my GPP builds as his 8% projected ownership is far too low for the floor/ceiling combination that he provides.

Damien Harris, $6,100DK/$6,900FD: 5%

I know I know, we do not typically recommend “non pass catching” running backs outside of King Henry on DraftKings but the only reason Damien didn’t continue his dominating performance (14 carries for 106 yards and two TD’s and two catches for seven yards) is because the Patriots beat the Jets so badly he barely saw the field in the second quarter. It is unlikely that this week will be a repeat and the Charger have the worst group of interior run stoppers in the NFL and it isn’t particularly close. In a game with a projected 51.4 total and a relatively close 4.5 point spread Harris should be in line for a workload north of 20 touches. That being said, this is still a Bill Belichick run offense and we all know that he hates your fantasy team so use discretion. Nothing worse than going all in on a player that can be limited due to coaching decisions.

Nick Chubb, $6,800DK/$8,000FD: 3-5%

I really do not believe that this ownership data is correct here. If Nick Chubb is under 8% Sunday with no Kareem Hunt it is officially time to call him the most disrespected player in fantasy sports. Yes, I know it is the Steelers, no I do not care. He is healthy and he should get the lion’s share of the work on that offense without multiple weapons on the Browns right now. He is still one of the premier talents in the NFL at running back and is averaging almost six yards per carry.

Also Consider: Eli Mitchell, Alvin Kamara, Antonio Gibson

WDS: Week 8 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.31

Cash:

Darrell Henderson Jr. ($6,500 DK / $7,700 FD)

I know that last week we found ourselves in a bit of a letdown spot where the Lions played with reckless abandon last week and actually took the lead in the first have and kept the ball out of the hands of the Ram’s for almost the entire first quarter despite being almost 20 point dogs. But in DFS you have to keep a short memory when it comes to outliers. Henderson finds himself in another fantastic spot as the Rams are 16.5 point favorites against a Texans team who is at the bottom of the league in run defense despite changing to a 4-3 under defensive coordinator Lovie Smith. Hendo is also sitting as the highest projected owned running back at anywhere between 20-25% and probably closer to 35%+ in cash contests if I were to read the tea leaves a little. Fading any player at that ownership is a dangerous proposition when you are building cash lineups.

D’Andre Swift ($7,100 DK / $7,900 FD)

Swift is far too cheap for a game-script proof running back and it looks like everyone agrees as he is projected as our 2nd highest rostered running back on the slate. Nobody in the league has caught more passes out of the backfield and Jared Goff’s inability to get beyond two reads has been a huge benefit to his receiving value. The Lions have been forced to design short passing routes out of the backfield specifically for Swift due to their limitations at quarterback and we saw them lean into this last week against the Rams where he saw 10 targets and saw his best yards per catch number (12 YPC) on the year. Another thing I love is that over the last few weeks is his carry numbers have been very steady at 13 carries over the last two and double digits in all three. He is popular but he is safe, and safe is what we want for cash games.

James Robinson, $6,600DK/$8,200FD :

It took a couple of weeks but the coaching staff for the Jags realized that their offense should start with the running game and build outward. Since week three when they figured that out, James Robinson has scored no less that 19.1 fantasy points on DraftKings and there is no reason that should change against a helpless Seahawks team who struggles defensively on the best of days and is now getting no time to rest with Geno Smith at the helm. Volume+skill+good matchup=Fantasy Gold.

Also Consider: Kenneth Gainwell, Chuba Hubbard

It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 8 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.31. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Heading into week 8 of the NFL it seems as though the league is more wide open that it has ever been. The Chiefs just got blown out by the Titans and look absolutely lost on the football field. The only argument against this is that the Bucs look just as good as they did during their super bowl season last year, but outside of them there are a lot of divisions up for grabs. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off of a bye this week, as are quite a few teams across the NFL given that week 7 was apparently the week of the byes. With the Urban Meyer narrative long in the rearview mirror and long since overshadowed by Jon Gruden, Trevor Lawrence ($5,500 DK / $6,700 FD) and this Jags team should now be fully focused on their opponent. Speaking of their opponent, they will be playing the Seattle Seahawks, who are on the opposite of a bye as they are dealt a short week given that they just played a pretty pathetic game against the Saints on Monday. This Seahawks teamed looked pretty horrendous, and the only reason that they were able to hold the Saints to 13 points was because they are the Saints, and the weather was detrimental to offensive production. Regardless of weather, the Seahawks rank 21st and 25th in total DVOA and DVOA against the pass, respectively, while ranking 16th in defense against the quarterback position. Lawrence has looked very rough this season, and this is definitely a GPP-only play, but if there is ever a breakout spot for a young rookie #1 overall pick, this is it.

B. Another quarterback that I expect to be extremely low-owned is Sam Darnold ($5,600 DK / $7,300 FD). As you can see, my plan is to continue to look to save money at the quarterback position in the majority of my lineups this weekend. What a rollercoaster of a ride it has been for Sam, as he has gone from being a total and complete bust in the NFL with the Jets, to reaching his potential and flourishing with the Panthers as they started 3-0, and now back down to rock bottom as Carolina has dropped four games in a row. Let’s be honest though, the Panthers beat the Texans and Jets as two of their first three games so is that really at all impressive? Regardless of your thoughts on Darnold, he did have three clear ceiling games to show us that he does possess tournament-winning upside at this price and with this team. In a matchup against an Atlanta Falcons team that seemingly ranks in the bottom of the entire NFL in most defensive metrics each season, I expect Carolina to put the ball in Sam’s hands early and often to give him one final chance to salvage his career.

C. Strangely enough, I will be looking to target the exact same QB3 this weekend as I did in week 6 for my previous article, and that QB is Joe Burrow ($7,100 DK / $7,800 FD). While his prices are not necessarily as low as they were the last time that I looked to target him, they are still at reasonable levels given his production so far this season. As my New England Patriots showed on Sunday, this Jets defense and team in general is pretty laughable. The Pats made this team look like they belong in college, and I expect Joe and the Bengals to do the same. Ranking 29th in total DVOA, 28th in DVOA against the pass, and 26th in adjusted line yards, the Jets defense is truly subpar on all accounts. The line yards are of particular importance, given that this O-line is not much improved from the one that allowed opposing defenses to torment Burrow his rookie season that ultimately resulted in a devastating leg injury. JB should continue to show glimpses of his greatness at LSU this weekend and I want to be along for the ride.

The Stacks

A. There is the narrative going around the DFS industry lately that the field is forcing bring-backs when they do not need one and while I think that that is true in some cases, I will still be highlighting our options when a bring-back does make sense. If I do not feel the need to, I will make that clear, as is usually the case with teams like the Lions or the Texans. Anyway, looking at the Jaguars, we have an interesting situation as they just lost their WR1 DJ Chark to a fractured left ankle. This leaves us with week 1 (and honestly 2 as well) darling Marvin Jones, who has seen his price rise over the weeks as expected. My favorite option from this group though is Laviska Shenault, who is priced to move across the DFS industry. Jamal Agnew may get some buzz, but I will likely keep any Jags stacks to just these two pass catchers, with a potential Dan Arnold sprinkle given how weak the TE position is. Typically I would look to run a bring back with the Seahawks and DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, or even Gerald Everett, but that is not the case this week. With a short week, a recent and absolutely disgraceful 10 point performance, and Geno Smith attempting to play quarterback, I am totally off of this team.

B. Sam Darnold and the Panthers present us another interesting situation, as we are able to target the running back in our stacks since Chuba Hubbard catches passes out of the backfield from Darnold. We can also of course look to alpha wideout DJ Moore, who has shown us GPP takedown upside on a few occasions this season. Robby Anderson appears to have had a blip on the radar during previous seasons as he has totally fallen off a cliff in 2021. This is common in the NFL as it is so difficult to stay consistently productive. Ian Thomas is another cheap TE punt that we can look to if we are desperate, but we should not even expect double digit fantasy points necessarily. For the Falcons side of the ball, Calvin Ridley will be extremely chalky on DraftKings at a price point of $6,600, but he and Kyle Pitts are the clear-cut options for a bring-back in a game where I think we do need to target both sides to win tournaments.

C. To close things out for week 8 of the NFL, the two Joes (Burrow/Mixon) will be teaming up with Burrow’s former LSU teammate and breakout rookie of the year candidate, Ja’Marr Chase, against the hapless New York Jets. The GD Jets are so bad, that we can not only look to these two top-tier options, but also the WR2 and WR3 of this team, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Tight end CJ Uzomah has also been extremely productive at times and has looked like a top 10 TE in the league this season. With someone named Mike White that I have honestly never heard of taking over the reigns for the pathetic joke of an NFL franchise that is the New York Jets, you can bet every penny you have that this is a spot where I will avoid including a bring-back. Look for the Bengals to keep rolling because if the Pats hung 50+ on this team, so can Joe and Ja’Marr.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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Heading into week 8 of the NFL it seems as though the league is more wide open that it has ever been. The Chiefs just got blown out by the Titans and look absolutely lost on the football field. The only argument against this is that the Bucs look just as good as they did during their super bowl season last year, but outside of them there are a lot of divisions up for grabs. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off of a bye this week, as are quite a few teams across the NFL given that week 7 was apparently the week of the byes. With the Urban Meyer narrative long in the rearview mirror and long since overshadowed by Jon Gruden, Trevor Lawrence ($5,500 DK / $6,700 FD) and this Jags team should now be fully focused on their opponent. Speaking of their opponent, they will be playing the Seattle Seahawks, who are on the opposite of a bye as they are dealt a short week given that they just played a pretty pathetic game against the Saints on Monday. This Seahawks teamed looked pretty horrendous, and the only reason that they were able to hold the Saints to 13 points was because they are the Saints, and the weather was detrimental to offensive production. Regardless of weather, the Seahawks rank 21st and 25th in total DVOA and DVOA against the pass, respectively, while ranking 16th in defense against the quarterback position. Lawrence has looked very rough this season, and this is definitely a GPP-only play, but if there is ever a breakout spot for a young rookie #1 overall pick, this is it.

B. Another quarterback that I expect to be extremely low-owned is Sam Darnold ($5,600 DK / $7,300 FD). As you can see, my plan is to continue to look to save money at the quarterback position in the majority of my lineups this weekend. What a rollercoaster of a ride it has been for Sam, as he has gone from being a total and complete bust in the NFL with the Jets, to reaching his potential and flourishing with the Panthers as they started 3-0, and now back down to rock bottom as Carolina has dropped four games in a row. Let’s be honest though, the Panthers beat the Texans and Jets as two of their first three games so is that really at all impressive? Regardless of your thoughts on Darnold, he did have three clear ceiling games to show us that he does possess tournament-winning upside at this price and with this team. In a matchup against an Atlanta Falcons team that seemingly ranks in the bottom of the entire NFL in most defensive metrics each season, I expect Carolina to put the ball in Sam’s hands early and often to give him one final chance to salvage his career.

C. Strangely enough, I will be looking to target the exact same QB3 this weekend as I did in week 6 for my previous article, and that QB is Joe Burrow ($7,100 DK / $7,800 FD). While his prices are not necessarily as low as they were the last time that I looked to target him, they are still at reasonable levels given his production so far this season. As my New England Patriots showed on Sunday, this Jets defense and team in general is pretty laughable. The Pats made this team look like they belong in college, and I expect Joe and the Bengals to do the same. Ranking 29th in total DVOA, 28th in DVOA against the pass, and 26th in adjusted line yards, the Jets defense is truly subpar on all accounts. The line yards are of particular importance, given that this O-line is not much improved from the one that allowed opposing defenses to torment Burrow his rookie season that ultimately resulted in a devastating leg injury. JB should continue to show glimpses of his greatness at LSU this weekend and I want to be along for the ride.

The Stacks

A. There is the narrative going around the DFS industry lately that the field is forcing bring-backs when they do not need one and while I think that that is true in some cases, I will still be highlighting our options when a bring-back does make sense. If I do not feel the need to, I will make that clear, as is usually the case with teams like the Lions or the Texans. Anyway, looking at the Jaguars, we have an interesting situation as they just lost their WR1 DJ Chark to a fractured left ankle. This leaves us with week 1 (and honestly 2 as well) darling Marvin Jones, who has seen his price rise over the weeks as expected. My favorite option from this group though is Laviska Shenault, who is priced to move across the DFS industry. Jamal Agnew may get some buzz, but I will likely keep any Jags stacks to just these two pass catchers, with a potential Dan Arnold sprinkle given how weak the TE position is. Typically I would look to run a bring back with the Seahawks and DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, or even Gerald Everett, but that is not the case this week. With a short week, a recent and absolutely disgraceful 10 point performance, and Geno Smith attempting to play quarterback, I am totally off of this team.

B. Sam Darnold and the Panthers present us another interesting situation, as we are able to target the running back in our stacks since Chuba Hubbard catches passes out of the backfield from Darnold. We can also of course look to alpha wideout DJ Moore, who has shown us GPP takedown upside on a few occasions this season. Robby Anderson appears to have had a blip on the radar during previous seasons as he has totally fallen off a cliff in 2021. This is common in the NFL as it is so difficult to stay consistently productive. Ian Thomas is another cheap TE punt that we can look to if we are desperate, but we should not even expect double digit fantasy points necessarily. For the Falcons side of the ball, Calvin Ridley will be extremely chalky on DraftKings at a price point of $6,600, but he and Kyle Pitts are the clear-cut options for a bring-back in a game where I think we do need to target both sides to win tournaments.

C. To close things out for week 8 of the NFL, the two Joes (Burrow/Mixon) will be teaming up with Burrow’s former LSU teammate and breakout rookie of the year candidate, Ja’Marr Chase, against the hapless New York Jets. The GD Jets are so bad, that we can not only look to these two top-tier options, but also the WR2 and WR3 of this team, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Tight end CJ Uzomah has also been extremely productive at times and has looked like a top 10 TE in the league this season. With someone named Mike White that I have honestly never heard of taking over the reigns for the pathetic joke of an NFL franchise that is the New York Jets, you can bet every penny you have that this is a spot where I will avoid including a bring-back. Look for the Bengals to keep rolling because if the Pats hung 50+ on this team, so can Joe and Ja’Marr.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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Thursday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick with all of the big name players missing time, and potential value options available to us inwhat should be a fast paced contest. Take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Packers at Cardinals 10.28.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

Vegas Script: Total: 51, Cardinals -6

This is an interesting game, especially for a Thursday. With a 51 total and two of the higher octane offenses in the league, you would think that fitting your studs would be tough. But, with Davante Adams and Allen Lazard out for covid related reasons and Deandre Hopkins not practicing any this week and being a true game-time decision, we have a lot of value options available to us this evening. The -6 feels a little high but to be honest that may be some bias on my end being a Packers fan. They should be able to keep up with the Cardinals in this contest even with Adams being out, but we shall see.

Captains:

Chalk: Kyler Murray, $18,000:

Week in and Week out Kyler Murray is the safest QB on the board, providing a floor/ceiling combination that is one of the best in the league, so it is no surprise that he will be the highest owned captain on the evening. Green Bay has only played against two of what I would consider as “running quarterbacks” in Justin Fields and Taylor Heinicke. Justin rushed six times for 43 yards and Taylor when 10 for 95 on the ground. Murray is better than both in that regard so a day where he exceeds 100 yards would not be a shock to me in any regard.

Pivot: Aaron Jones, $13,500 :

While it is very fair to target the Green Bay receivers in a contest where Davante Adams and Allen Lazard are out due to Covid protocols Rodgers has shown a habit to lean more heavily on players that he is comfortable with over-targeting “no named” guys who are filling in. I am expecting Jones to be the focal point of this offense and be the highest scoring Packer in all likelihood. Week four of last season Davante Adams and Adam Lazard missed, in the same way, they will tonight and two things happened, Robert Tonyan caught 6 of 6 targets for 98 yards and 3 TD’s, and Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams spent most of the day running routes as WR’s and caught 13 of 13 targets combined for 135 yards and a touchdown with neither player exceeding 55% on the snap share. I love Dillon and what he can do, but Jones is the better route runner and pass-catching back of the two, so I do not think Green Bay can win without Jones seeing an 80% or more snap share this evening.

Contrarian #1: Aaron Rodgers, $17,100 :

There aren’t many times you see Aaron as a contrarian play but with Kyler Murray only slightly cheaper and the lack of his top two pass-catching options out, I do not think many people are going to go this route. We can use that to our advantage as Rodgers was in this same scenario last season and he went nuts, throwing for 324 yards and four touchdowns against the Falcons in week four with no Davante or Lazard. Sure, there has been a little regression but it always seems like, on the days where people doubt A-Rod, he goes out there and has a huge day just to prove people wrong. One thing not being considered as well is that Rodgers should have more time to throw than you would expect tonight with JJ Watt out and defensive tackle Rashard Lawrence expected to miss. If Aaron gets time, there is no defensive back in the league that can stop him from hitting his targets.

Contrarian #2: Robert Tonyan, $6,900 :

The only reason people even targeted Tonyan in seasonal this year was due to this same scenario last season. In a game with no Adams or Lazard, Robert caught 6 of 6 for 98 yards and three scores against a hapless Falcons team. The Cards are much better defensively than the Falcons but they are historically bad against tight ends (they are #1 in DVOA in 2021, but they have not played a single competent TE this season), and as I just mentioned, they are going to have a depleted pass rush so plays should have time to develop. I doubt that I am the only person to see the parallels to last year but I think we can get Tonyan at a pretty nice ownership tonight with that red #1 next to his name tonight.

Contrarian#3: Christian Kirk, $10,500:

Replace with D-Hop if he suits up. If Nuk sits, Kirk should be in line for a huge night with Green Bay’s defense becoming one of the worst in the league overnight when Jaire Alexander went down this season. The entire scheme falls apart when he is not on the field and the coaching staff in Wisconsin has shown themselves incapable of making adjustments when injuries happen on the defensive side. They sit firmly near the bottom against #1 and 2 receivers in terms of DVOA. Kirk is second in the team in catches, targets, catch rate, and TD’s when Hopkins is on the field while only playing 66% of the snaps. With the 21% target share potentially being up for grabs and the big play ability of Kirk his ceiling is immense today.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Packers at Cardinals 10.28 Flex Plays:

  1. Kyler Murray
  2. Aaron Jones
  3. Aaron Rodgers
  4. Robert Tonyan
  5. Christian Kirk
  6. AJ Green
  7. Randall Cobb
  8. Zach Ertz
  9. Amari Rodgers
  10. Rondale Moore
  11. Chase Edmonds
  12. Marquez Valdez-Scantling (if he plays)
  13. Malik Taylor (back from Covid)
  14. James Connor
  15. Equanamious St. Brown

Kickers and defenses:

With the amount of value we have in this contest tonight I truly do not see a need to target the defenses or the kickers for some cheap points. There should be a plethora of cheap options in this 51 total game that have the ability to have a big night. If you are running a one off game script where you think the Packers struggle without Adams you can use the Cardinals defense, but do so sparingly please.

It is time folks and I hope that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Packers at Cardinals 10.28 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Course – Port Royal Golf Course

6,828 Yards – Par 71 – Greens: Bermuda

Welcome to what will be one of the weakest fields of the year! One-hundred and thirty-two players are set to tee it up at the Bermuda Championship, and even if you added in a superstar like Jason Day to the mix, the field would still be considered flawed.

Port Royal Golf Course is positioned right on the Atlantic Ocean coastline. We can get into what that means from a strategy standpoint shortly, but this is the second shortest venue on the PGA Tour – behind only Pebble Beach. It should go without saying that the track plays as straightforward as the yardage might indicate, but it gets even more emphasized when you look at the construction of the property. Most of the yardage we see on the surface is baked into three of the four par-threes, with those three holes ranking as your most difficult. Each will feature between a 26.1 and 32.5% bogey or worse rate, and the yardage stretches between 213 to 235 yards. When we look at the top-10 finishers over the past two seasons, strokes gained on par threes have been the most impactful. That does flip when looking at just cut-makers, but to me, that shows earning shots on the par-fours and fives will be most crucial in making the cut, while being able to separate from the pack on par threes will give golfers the push they need to compete for the title.

The last part of the equation is the weather that I talked about to open this discussion, but I am not going to get overly concerned with pinpointing a specific tee time. Sure, it might end up coming into play marginally, but we aren’t talking about a more volatile location where winds will come and go. I’ll instead weigh wind in a model as a whole and go in with the mindset that you will always have to deal with steady breezes on a coastal course.

  • Strokes Gained Total In Moderate to Severe Wind (12.5%) – Maybe there is an AM/PM split advantage, but I generally hate diving that deep into things. We are looking at 20+ MPH during all starting times, so it is not as if a group will have nothing to worry about. If anything, it could present a flip in my exposure the other way if the masses start flooding towards a given perceived advantage.
  • Strokes Gained Total On Courses Under 7,200 Yards (12.5%) – I wanted to get a strong correlation of strokes gained data with information pertinent to this week’s venue, and I love how easily quantifable this metric is when building a model
  • Weighted Slow Bermuda (10%) – That incorporates a mixture of stats on how golfers have performed during their career when given greens that mimic these. That doesn’t include just putting to derive a value, although the flat stick was heavily included for 40% of the aggregate. 
  • Weighted Par-Three (10%) – I looked at par-three average, bogey avoidance and various iron proximity numbers – mostly those of over 200 yards.
  • Weighted Par-Four (17.5%) – That is a combination of holes from 350-400, 400-450 and overall par-four totals.
  • Par-Five Birdie or Better (10%) – I do think you could raise that metric slightly, but these are rather simple and short. It wouldn’t shock me if someone caught fire on them that normally doesn’t play par-fives well. 
  • Total Driving + GIR (15%) – The total driving was put together from a heavy split in favor of accuracy over distance and then I took that number and did a very even distribution between GIR and total driving. 
  • Proximity From 0-150 Yards (12.5%) – Most of the varying distances outside of that group are on the par-threes and fives, which already has been looked into marginally in other areas. 

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Matthew Fitzpatrick (11,000) – I’m way lower on the $9,000 range this week than most, which means I will find myself in various builds where I have exposure to a ton of the $10,000+ options. There is nothing wrong with getting unique if you are playing a large-field MME, but I believe the five players in this zone for the Bermuda Championship are a step above the rest. Matthew Fitzpatrick ranks seventh overall in my model and has a slew of impressive statistics worth mentioning, including grading fourth in this field on slow Bermuda greens and inside the top-five when it comes to short courses and windy conditions over his past 50 rounds.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($10,700) – Christiaan Bezuidenhout is priced where he should be, according to my model. I know that sounds weird to say, but he ranks inside the top-16 in five of the eight categories I ran, which includes not finishing outside of 59th anywhere. He has been a little worse on slow Bermuda if we are looking at just his putting splits, but it is a marginal drop-off for someone that plays his best golf in windy conditions.

Patrick Reed ($10,400) – Patrick Reed is looking like the contrarian pivot of the group. My early projections have him just above 10%. The current form has not been good since returning from his battle with pneumonia that placed him in the hospital, which is why he is GPP-only, but I wouldn’t put it past him getting himself into contention. The field is weak. He is the only American inside of the top-100 playing this tournament. And I am willing to take a shot on his upside if it means I am getting him as the odd man out.

Seamus Power ($10,200) – There is a lot to like about Seamus Power. I’ve been saying it even before he went on this run a few months ago that I believe he is a borderline elite golfer from a statistical perspective, and this is the perfect course for him to continue his hot run. 

How I rank the group – It is extremely close, so I don’t want to make it sound as if someone is exponentially better than the other, but when considering ownership and price tag for GPPs, I would rank them : 1. Patrick Reed, 2. Christiaan Bezuidenhout, 3. Seamus Power, 4. Matthew Fitzpatrick and 5. Mito Periera.

$9,000 Range

Chad Ramey ($9,500) – Chad Ramey checks a ton of boxes. He ranks second in his young career when it comes to strokes gained approach and is an excellent driver of the ball that can score with the best of them on par-fives. If you want to get super contrarian, I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibilities to start a build with him or someone in the $8,000s, but that is more of an MME-type roster over what you would do in a single-entry or three-max. Ramey belongs in this range and works as the first or second man into your lineup.

Favorite Pivot: Matthias Schwab ($9,700) – If you want to use the argument that Matthias Schwab is overpriced, I am in agreement, but I don’t think he is any more so than whatever name you want to mention in this group. The only difference is that he is going to come at a fraction of the popularity. The mindset behind him is purely large-field GPPs, but I don’t mind throwing him into lineups with a ton of entries because of the leverage he creates if he stays sub-five percent

$8,000 Range

Sahith Theegala ($8,800) – Sahith Theegala looks like a nice bargain across the board after burning the industry at the Shriners. I love his ability to scramble and avoid making bogey. We see those two strengths in my model with his first-place grade in bogey avoidance and 2nd-place number in scrambling. That is a good combination to possess if the wind turns violent, and he continues to be a name to monitor because of what I said on my ‘Be The Number’ podcast about finally being over a wrist injury that derailed his career for a bit.

Guido Migliozzi ($8,700) – I have been happy to see Guido Migliozzi’s ownership projection steadily going in decline since yesterday. On Monday, there was a period when he was the second-most popular choice on the board, but that seems to be behind us now with an ownership rank that places him as a fringe top-10 choice. Migliozzi ranks third in my weighted par-four category, ninth in windy conditions and eighth at courses under 7,200 yards.

Stephan Jaeger ($8,400) – GPP-only, but Stephan Jaeger was the top point scorer on the Korn Ferry Tour last year. Yes, you read that correctly. Not everyone’s darling Mito Periera! Some of my math is lower on him because of the three tournaments I have in my system this year, but this is the perfect venue for him to provide a big result because of his bogey avoidance and short iron proximity numbers.

Ryan Armour ($8,100) – Back-to-back eighth-place showings at Port Royal Golf Course during the two years the event has been held at the venue, and while I do worry slightly about the form he is bringing into the week, the stats are where I would want them to be if I was going to ignore the fact that he has posted no top-50s in his last four starts. Armour earned his 13th-place rank in my model from how he stacked up statistically.

Other Thoughts: David Lipsky ($8,000) and Scott Stallings ($8,600) both carry GPP appeal.

$7,000 Range

Stacked With Talent –  I did this breakdown on the ‘Live Show’ with Sia Nejad and Joel Schreck, but I want to pinpoint the golfers again that fit three sets of criteria. In 10 of the past 13 tournaments, my model was higher than DraftKings on the golfer that won the event. In all 13 of those, it was higher in some iteration when it came to rank versus ownership. And in 12 of the 13, the player was ranked somewhere between first to 18th. I will stretch this out towards the top-30 for the sake of this post, but these are the names that fit all three marks as of Tuesday night: Nick Hardy ($7,900), Alex Smalley ($7,600), Nick Taylor ($7,400), Matthew NeSmith ($7,300, I have some hesitation), Lee Hodges ($7,300), Aaron Rai ($7,300), Harry Hall ($7,200), Brian Stuard ($7,100), Bo Hoag ($7,000), Kramer Hickok ($7,000).

Additional Thoughts: Here is a list of other $7,000 golfers that missed the mark versus ownership but still graded as a value versus DraftKIngs: Mark Hubbard ($7,900), Russell Knox ($7,700), Hank Lebioda ($7,500), Austin Eckroat ($7,500), Jason Dufner ($7,200), David Hearn ($7,100), Anirban Lahiri ($7,100), Beau Hossler ($7,000), Vincent Whaley ($7,000). As you can tell, the group is stacked with potential plays.

$6,000 Range

Cameron Percy ($6,900) – Cameron Percy is priced too cheaply. I don’t love his upside, but I think we can get a top-30 or 40 out of him. Maybe that makes him a better cash play than anything else, but there are playable options if you do find yourself down in the $6,000s, starting with Percy who could be a $7,000+ choice just as easily.

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Camilo Villegas ($6,800), Kurt Kitayama ($6,800), Chase Seiffert ($6,600), Austin Smotherman ($6,600), Sean O’Hair ($6,600), Dylan Wu ($6,500), Jon Pak ($6,500) and David Lingmerth ($6,200)

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

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The PGA Tour is in Bermuda this week where approximately 125 golfers are set to battle at the Bermuda Championship. This event is only in its third year and its previous winners were Brian Gay and Brendon Todd. If that tells you anything, it’s that short hitters can flourish on this 6800 yard Par 71. I’m looking for accuracy off the tee, APP and short game, but we will have much more on course dynamics on tonight’s live PGA show with Spencer and Joel. One last thing to keep in mind is that it is likely to be windy this week so you’ll want to be dialed into our Win Daily Discord to ensure you’ve got the right end of the wind splits (if there is one). And now, let’s get to the Bermuda Championship Initial Picks.

Christian Bezuidenhout (10700) – CBez can get hot on APP and he’s Top 10 PUTT, ARG and long Par 3s.  Plenty to like in this elite range but as you will see it’s CBez and Seamus at the top of the list with Mito as a close 3rd.

Seamus Power (10200) – A great ball striker who has the short game to match.  He’s top 10 in this field in most categories I valued.  The one potential issue is he’s not elite in terms of Fairways Gained but everything else checks out as elite.  Honorable mention to Mito Pereira in this range as he is also elite in most categories and likely to be the most popular in this range. 

Hayden Buckley (9900) – I’ve been going back and forth on a couple new kids on the block in this range, namely Hayden and Chad Ramey.  Both seem good to me but I think Buckley may have the better upside as the BS is elite (much like Ramey) and he may have found something with the PUTT as of late.

Adam Hadwin (9400) – I’m cautiously optimistic that Hadwin will have the APP necessary to contend in this tournament and we know he’s likely to find fairways.  Add to that he has been great with the short game and you’ve got a good option here.

Ryan Armour (8100) – Back to back 8th place finishes during the only two times this tournament has been played.  It makes sense as Armour is the ultimate fairway finder and is Top 20 in PUTT, short Par 4s and long Par 3s.  He’s also inside the Top 40 on APP.  Great value here at the Bermuda Championship. 

David Lipsky (8000) – A golfer who is often overlooked but who has a ton of PGA Tour experience in both big and small events.  I think that will pay off in this field.  He also rates out within the Top 25 on APP.  None of the other metrics are elite but I like his experience and his likely low ownership.

Mark Hubbard (7900) – I’m not a Hubbard guy but I can’t deny the value here as he rates out very well in almost every category including being inside the Top 20 in 4 of my major metrics:  APP, PUTT, ARG, Fairways Gained.

Russell Knox (7700) – Let’s be real, no one is clamoring to roster Russell Knox, but if there were a tournament to roster him it’s this one.  He’s got back to back Top 20s at the Bermuda Championship and his APP game has been very good over the last 6 months.  The PUTT can be a problem but he’s gained in that department in 3 of his last 5 tournaments. 

Jason Dufner (7200) – The PUTT is an issue for Dufner but his APP and ARG play truly make up for it.  I think this is a tournament where Dufner holds some sneaky upside and he’ll be a great pivot off some more popular options in this range.

Brian Stuard (7100) – My model puts an emphasis on hitting fairways and short game and Stuard certainly checks those boxes.  The problem is that his APP game has been lacking as of late as has the PUTT.  He’s getting love in models because of some incredible spike weeks, but overall the picture isn’t super bright.  With that said, I do like the potential upside so I’ll take a few shots unless he’s super popular.

Bo Hoag (7000) – This feels like more of a Bermuda Championship hunch play even though he does rate out well in my model.  He finds fairways and is great on APP. His short game is slightly below average but I believe in him as a player and I think he’ll be a nice pivot in this range.

Cam Percy (6900) – I’m simply not a fan of this range and I don’t think you should dip your toes in here too much, but I do think Percy has some upside if his PUTT can manage to be decent. 

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 44-13. Check out Discord Wednesday night.

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday afternoon for all Bermuda Championship lineup adjustments, late breaking news and weather reports.

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Bye weeks are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 7 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out Stix’s GPP Play article, as he will provide his own insights on some of the plays below and will likely have some guys that I didn’t even consider. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 7 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.24

***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***

Cash running backs are about as straight forward as it gets for me this week. We have a few prime matchups that are where I think you should start your cash builds. With so many bye weeks your core of running backs should not vary all that much, just stick with the obvious plays and make your adjustments with wide receivers. Gpp’s we have a few pivots in pretty good spots but as you already know, this is a rough week so tread lightly.

GPP:

Aaron Jones, $7,500DK/$8,500FD: 4-6%

Matt LaFleur is so frustrating when it comes to how he utilizes his running backs but this is a fantastic position for Aaron Jones and we get to roster him at less than 6%. This is impossible to ignore in a week where there are so many injuries and bye weeks. Washington’s defense has been a huge letdown this season being dead last in points per game allowed (31.0) and bottom seven in nearly every defensive statistical category. The question is not whether or not Jones can produce, the question is will Matt LaFleur just go with what works or will he try to be the “smartest coach on the field” as we have seen the snap share go from 70-30 in the first two weeks to 60-40 in two of the last three weeks.

Joe Mixon $6,500DK/$7,200FD: 5-7%

Last week the Ravens looked as if they got a little bit of their mojo back defensively but I am willing to chalk that up as the Chargers being historically bad when it comes to traveling to the east coast. On a re-watch of that game, I did not see anything from Baltimore that made me think they have turned the corner so until I see it with any consistency, targeting pass-catching backs against the Ravens is still a preferred play for me. Mixon was used heavily in that role against the Packers last week, bringing in five of six targets for 59 yards and a TD to go along with 18 carries while still being less than 100%. Mixon’s volume is second only behind Derrick Henry on the season, facing the 28th ranked DVOA when it comes to pass-catching backs, and is going completely ignored being projected between 5-7% rostered on the day making this an elite target for GPP’s on the day.

James Connor, $5,600DK/$6,500FD: 3-5%

With everyone gravitating towards Chase Edmonds in what should be a prime spot against the basement dwelling Texans, James Connor saw a 55% snap share compared to Edmonds last week, has a higher rushing prop, and has the best odds to score (-140) of the game. With the Cardinals being an obscene 18.5 point favorite Connor should see his largest workload by far this week and he is being projected under 4% on the slate.

Also Consider: Antonio Gibson (sub 4%, monitor the injury news), JD McKissic (sub 3%, DK only),

WDS: Week 7 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.24

Cash:

Derrick Henry, $9,200DK/$11,000FD, :

I feel like I am copying and pasting this every week but Henry finds himself in another smash spot against a team that is susceptible against the run. You will here me, Ghost, and Stix talk about Henry ad nauseum this week and every week going forward so I will not waste your time repeating the same thing. Fade him at your own peril. All hail the King.

Darrell Henderson, $6,600DK/$8,000FD :

When this season started there were workload concerns and whether or not Henderson could handle the burden of being a number one. After 6 weeks of action, we have a large enough sample to say clearly that he can handle the role. Henderson has had no less than 16 touches in all five of the games he has played and scored no less than 15.7 DK points to date. Now he gets to face the 7th worst defense in terms of DVOA against running backs on the ground and the worst by a wide margin through the air. Oh yeah, and for added benefit, Stafford will be going into this game wanting to beat the breaks off of the Lions. The fans in Detroit spent the last decade blaming their poor performance on Stafford and he is going to go out of his way to rub it in. This is likely going to get out of hand in a hurry and Henderson will have plenty of time to run it down their throat in the second half of the game.

Chuba Hubbard, $6,100DK/$7,300FD :

With CMC suddenly finding his way to the IR last week (NFL needs to get a handle on coaches withholding information but that’s another story) this is Chuba’s backfield until further notice and boy does he get a nice week seven opponent in the New York Giants. With a 65% snap share in each of the last two weeks and 16 carries to go along with 3 targets even in a negative game script last week he presents a solid floor at 6.1k with a 95.5 total yards prop and the best odds to score in the game.

Also Consider: Darrel Williams, Leonard Fournette, Josh Jacobs, D’Andre Swift

It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 7 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.24. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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