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The PGA Tour heads to Sea Island Resort in St. Simons Island, Georgia for the final PGA event of the season. I purposely worded that in italics because there WILL be one more event the week after Thanksgiving.  Robert Streb returns to defend his crown after sticking a wedge shot inches from the pin last year to hold off a hard charging Kevin Kisner in a playoff hole. That was actually Streb’s 2nd win here as he’ll go for the Sea Island hat trick this week in yet another loaded field. A little known insider fact is that there are actually a large group of PGA professionals that call Sea Island home: Harris English, Patton Kizzire, J.T. Poston, Keith Mitchell, Hudson Swafford, and Greyson Sigg will all be teeing it up this week on their home course. There are also a ton of professionals that live in the nearby area as well. What a lot of the industry won’t tell you is that none of the tour pro’s who call this home have ever won The RSM Classic.

This event is actually played on two different courses. On Thursday and Friday half of the field will play the Plantation Course and the other half will play the Seaside Course. Then they will switch. After the cut, on the weekend, ALL of the players will play the Seaside course. I mention this because although the Plantation course does not have shot-link data, it’s known to be the easier of the 2 courses. This sets up for an advantage in Showdown lineups, making sure you’re getting the players on the Plantation course in the first 2 days. That said, I’m going to focus on the Seaside course as this is where 3 days will be played. Tom Fazio re-designed the par 70, 7005 yard oceanside course in 1999. Distance off the tee has basically been neutralized here, so we’ll be targeting fairway finders for sure. The course will also go back to our typical fall swing birdie fest with Bermuda grass greens. 

Key Metrics (in order)

SG:APP

Fairways Gained (driving accuracy)

Greens in Regulation (GIR)

Birdie or Better %

Par 4 (400-450)

SG:P (putting on Bermuda)

3 Putt Avoidance

Easy Courses, Windy Conditions

Initial Picks

Webb Simpson ($10700) – Looks to be finding his game again after a T14 his last time out at The C.J. Cup. He also has 4 top 10’s at The RSM including 2 playoff losses.

Louis Oosthuizen ($10400) – One of the most accurate ball strikers on the planet. His form leaves a bit to be desired at this price, but Oosti is still looking for that all important first PGA win (on American soil), and it won’t kill you if he finishes in his typical 2nd place.

Cam Smith ($10300) – This guy just continues to show up on the leaderboard EVERYWHERE. It’s a hefty price but you’re not going to find a more consistent golfer in this top tier.

Corey Conners ($9900) – We haven’t seen him in a while but he’s as accurate as they come on short courses. He’s 1st in my model and if he brings his putter he may win the RSM.

Russell Henley ($9600) – Another accurate short course specialist. Henley has been knocking on the door  every event since last year’s U.S. Open. He’s a couple of Bermuda putts away from another victory.

Alex Noren ($9500) – It’s stupid but Noren has the thing where he does well every other tournament. Coming off a T45 at Mayakoba it may be time to go back to this golfer who can get hot with the putter. Not sure I can pay this price but I’m gonna consider him when we get some ownership numbers.

Kevin Kisner ($9200) – This Georgia native loves playing this course in his backyard. He’s a great course fit here but comes in with some of the worst form in this field. HIGH Risk/Reward option.

Seamus Power ($8200) – Remember last week wasn’t a birdie fest and Power let a lot of people down getting cut after shooting a first round 75. Nothing’s broken here, he bounced right back with a 2nd round 70. Let’s hope the ownership stays low. I’m going right back to Seamus at this price.

That’s my cream of the crop. There are a couple other guys I’m not playing but you may consider at the RSM:

Scottie Scheffler, Harris English, Taylor Gooch, Adam Scott, Joel Dahmen, and Brendon Todd.

Let’s take a look at some more RSM value.

Chris Kirk (8000): He’s playing well and going home. A little to pricey for me, but I know Sia is on him this week.

Charles Howell III (7800) – Also going home in good form. Lacks the DK scoring I like at birdie fests

Jason Day (7600) –  If there’s ever a time to jump on the Spencer band wagon, this is it. He’s showing glimpses of hope and T12 here last year.

Aaron Rai (7400) – This guy is a good golfer just finding his footing on American soil. He’s finally coming around and it’s best to be early on a guy before the field recognizes he’s there.

Tyler Duncan (7200) – His recent form has caught my eye.  Good history here as well.

Alex Smalley & Taylor Moore (7100) – These rookies are good. Better than their prices here in this field. I’d give these up and comers some serious consideration.

Chez Reavie (7000) – Short course specialist. A bit nervous about his birdie fest/DK point potential but at this price, all we need is cut makers.

Camilo Villegas (6800) – Great course history, and last years FIRST ROUND LEADER (hint, hint). Also part of a 5 man playoff back in 2016, and I just LOVE his story so I’m pulling for him.

Fishing with others: Lucas Glover, Andrew Landry, Matt NeSmith, Taylor Pendrith, Greyson Sigg, Hudson Swafford, and Vaughn Taylor.

I always like to give you one more, that you may not know.

Ludvig Aberg ($6500) – He’s a Swedish kid, a junior at Texas Tech and the world’s 3rd ranked amateur. Just played The Bermuda Championship where he opened with B2B rounds of 68. 

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Sia’s SW is now 46-13.

WinDaily has 4 other tools coming at you later this week to help with your process of building winning Draftkings lineups. Check out our live show on Tuesday night with Sia, Joel and Spencer. Both Antonio and Spencer also release articles later in the week as well. Check back on Wednesday evening to catch Steven’s ownership article to help you nail down those final low-owned guys that’ll get you that big GPP win. As always, make sure to stop into the WinDaily Discord room to ask questions from our stellar PGA team or just compare notes with some of the other members of our family.If you haven’t already, follow WinDailySports on YouTube and via Apple podcasts to check out all the content at WinDailySports.com. We’ve been hitting big with our NFL, NBA, and NHL content and you’re going to want to be part of that. Hope you enjoyed this article.

– Isaiah

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Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 10 Chiefs at Raiders 11.14.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

Vegas Script: Total: 52.5, Chiefs -2.5

After everything that has happened with the Raiders in previous weeks you would think that the would be larger underdogs than a simple 2.5 point dog but the Raiders have played the Chiefs better than any other team in the NFL over the last couple of season and if you take a look at Patrick Mahomes’ stat lines you will see that he has looked downright bad over the last few weeks.

Captains:

Chalk: Patrick Mahomes, $18,600:

Usually when you are playing showdowns we would see Mahomes somewhere between 20-30% captain. In those scenarios I would say fade the chalk so you don’t chop the pot with 1,000 of your closest friends. But 13% is a different story. If you want to take a chance on Patty tonight and you feel like he can right the ship we all know what is ceiling is and you likely will not see him as a sub-20% captain again this year.

Pivot: Derek Carr, $15,900 :

As I said above you are not really leveraging any ownership in tonight’s game if you use the top 5 players in captain as they are all within 5% of each other. The question is simply who will outperform who and if you do not think Mahomes will return to form the most logical pivot is Derrick Carr. In his last two contests Carr completed over 71% of his passes, with three touchdowns, and one interception. The Chiefs have been a mess in every facet as of late and Darren Waller should have no issues getting open all day downfield for big plays in this contest.

Contrarian #1: Darren Waller, $14,400 :

Waller has unsurprisingly been a big reason why Carr has performed well against the Chiefs in both of their 2020 matchups getting 7 targets in each, and finishing with with 48 and 88 yards and a touchdown in each contest. Waller is already the favorite target of Carr and now Henry Ruggs is gone opening up a few more targets a game. KC is also one of the absolute worst at defending the tight end position so there is a reasonable chance that he sees 12-15 targets tonight and gets into the endzone at least once.

Contrarian #2: Travis Kelce, $15,000 :

Travis Kelce gets the slightest of edges for me over Tyreek Hill as a captain play and I am really nitpicking here. Mahomes has been at his worst over the last three weeks in terms of timing and accuracy. If I have to choose one player to help him get right I want the larger target, who isn’t 65 yards down the field, and easier to time his routes. Mahomes needs to get in a rhythm and I just see that as being an easier feat at the moment with the big guy at tight end. Before you ask, yes you can play Hill at captain. He is still the Cheetah and he can drop 50 on this defense if Mahomes is on his game tonight. But I am not doing anyone any good just listing Mahomes, Kelce, Hill as the top three options in a showdown slate every time they play. We all know what they bring to the table.

Contrarian #3: Josh Jacobs, $13,000 :

Ok I will put one guy in here who is lower owned. KC’s biggest weakness is clearly run defense and this might finally be the week we get a ceiling game from Jacobs if the Raiders attack it. The biggest problem for the last few season is that teams get behind so big that they have to abandon it. That has been far from the case of late. This is a little bit of a gut play for me as Jacobs has not been getting the workload that we were expecting this year but I wanted to give you guys something a little different as Jacobs is right around 4% projected as a captain play tonight and if KC lays another egg you will find yourself in a high leverage position.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 10 Chiefs at Raiders 11.14. Flex plays:

  1. Patrick Mahomes
  2. Tyreek Hill
  3. Derek Carr
  4. Travis Kelce
  5. Darren Waller
  6. Josh Jacobs
  7. Hunter Renfrow
  8. Darrel Williams
  9. Mecole Hardman
  10. Kenyan Drake
  11. DeSean Jackson
  12. Harrison Butker
  13. Daniel Carlson
  14. Raiders
  15. Chiefs
  16. Byron Pringle
  17. Foster Moreau
  18. Demarcus Robinson

Kickers and defenses:

With all of the obvious plays priced up there will be a clear need for some salary savings tonight so as far as I am concerned both kickers in this contest are firmly in play and as wild is it is for me to say it, if you are scripting an build where you expect the Chiefs struggles to continue I do not see anything wrong with taking a risk in a spot or two and targeting the Raiders defense. Wow, it feels so wrong saying that but here we are.

It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 10 Chiefs at Raiders 11.14 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Bye weeks are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 10 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out Stix’s GPP Play article, as he will provide his own insights on some of the plays below and will likely have some guys that I didn’t even consider. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 10 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 11.14

***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***

Dalvin Cook is in an amazing position and his ownership is more than reasonable. The Chargers interior is god awful and Dal could easily break free for multiple score this week so he gets the “top of the article treatment” this week just so you all know where I stand. He was initially in the cash section but I don’t think it did him justice for what his output could be this week.

GPP:

When it comes to GPP’s you really have a ton of options. The ownership numbers are a little deceiving. While players like Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, and Austin Ekeler are between 15-18% rostered. If you create a lineup without Mark Ingram and D’Ernest Johnson you are immediately separating yourself from 60% of the field or more. If you do not plan on using either this week you can be pretty “chalky” with your running backs and be fine in GPP’s. So know that this week I may have a play or two in GPP that are over my 8% threshold.

Christian McCaffrey, Panthers, ($8400DK/$9,000FD): 5-8%

Christian McCaffrey is back ladies and gentlemen. After seeing him work against the Patriot defense I am ready to throw him in my lineups and to my amazement he is sitting at sub 8% ownership while only 8.4k . The fact that the Panthers had no concerns with giving him 18 targets/touches after a substantial injury that kept him sidelined for 6 weeks is promising. We will not see Christian at anything under 18% for the remainder of the season so jump on this while you have the chance.

Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys, ($7,000DK/$8,000FD): 10%-12%

Zeke is way too cheap for a lead back going against a Falcons defense as an 8.5 point favorite. Thanks to our value backs and last weeks knee bruise we are getting him at about an 8% roster discount in what could easily be his biggest game of the year. Zeke has the best odd to score on the game at -165 and has a total yards prop of 101.5 with a lean on the over in the sports betting market. This looks like a prime spot for Zeke to have a ceiling game and is a perfect run back if you are running Kyle Pitts out at tight end.

Aaron Jones, Packers, ($6,900DK/$8,200FD):

As a Packers fan last week just gave me a taste of our future without Aaron Rodgers and it is not got. Jordan Love played so poorly that even our running game was broken against a team that has been unable to stop running backs all season. Now we get an arguably better matchup in the Seahawks, the return of Rodgers, and a discount in terms of price and ownership with Aaron Jones who is projected at right around 12% at sub 7K. My only concern here is Head Coach Matt LaFluer as always but it Jones gets his 15 carries and 5-7 targets today this is a premium spot for Jones to take over and have a huge day.

Also Consider: Alex Collins, (See Cash Game Studs)

WDS: Week 10 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 11.14

Cash:

Cash is a very clear path at running back this week as both Alvin Kamara and Nick Chubb will be absent for their respective teams allowing everyone to pay up at QB, WR, and TE. This week is loaded with games where you will just need to hold your nose and play the value. If you do not want to go with two cheap running backs there are also tons of studs in plus matchups so that you can balance your risk.

D’Ernest Johnson, Browns, ($4,700DK/$5,400FD)

The Patriots defense has been one big mess this season when it comes to defensing the run and both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will be absent leaving D’Ernest Johnson to add to his surprising output with no real threat to eat into his workload. In spot situations this season Johnson is averaging 5.3 YPC and has scored twice on only 37 carries. Yes I am aware that 80% of that output came in one game, but that was also the only game that he was not sharing the backfield with a full strength Chubb or Hunt. Of the value backs we have available this week he is my favorite to use in cash games, and at what will be over 60% ownership you can not really afford to fade him in cash games.

Mark Ingram, Saints, ($4,500DK/$5,500FD):

Both Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram are relevant? I seriously feel like we are back in 2015. After this, and seeing Le’veon Bell and Devonta Freeman on the field Thursday I am convinced we are in a temporal bubble. With Trevor Sieman at the helm Ingram should see a heavy workload in the absence of Alvin Kamara against a Titans defense that is pretty mediocre at defending the run. The thing that will benefit him however, and will ironically be the most frustrating thing is that I expect to see a lot of Taysom Hill running read option. That will do two things. First, with defenses accounting for that extra wrinkle, Mark should have several chances to break free in wide open lanes. Second, it will make you pull your hair out because Hill could very well vulture multiple scores from him if they get into goal lone situations where he is best utilized. Of my two value backs, if you wanted to fade one of them Ingram would be my lean because of the Taysom Hill factor.

Najee Harris, ($7,900DK/$9,400FD) :

Najee is a usage monster and is near the top of the NFL in both rushing attempts and receptions for running backs. Now the Steelers will be without Big Ben against a Lions defense that simply can not stop the run. His usage should be insane Sunday with……ahem….Mason Rudolph at quarterback. Detroit will be stacking the box for the entire game but I do not think it much matter with a back like Harris who is capable of catching double digit passes out of the backfield in those situations. He is looking like a lock for 22-25 carries and 5-7 targets as his floor in this contest. Yes the points will be ugly, just do not watch this game and check your lineups in the 4th quarter and you can just be happy with the result.

Also Consider: Austin Ekeler, Jonathon Taylor

It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 10 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 11.14. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Well we thought that week 8 was wild, but week 9 decided to say hold my beer. If you are still alive in survivor pools after last week then you probably either won or are very close to winning. We had a few double digit favorites forget to show up, and with my QB1 being Josh Allen last week, you can picture how my Sunday went. I am happy that we can turn the page to a new week here so let’s get to it. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. This week is the ultimate test of a “short memory for DFS”, as we have the option of going right back to the well with Josh Allen ($7,900 DK / $8,700 FD). Allen saw a price drop of $300 on both DraftKings and FanDuel after that abysmal performance in a dream matchup in week nine. The football schedule makers rewarded the Bills with yet another cakewalk of a matchup against the New York Jets for week 10 of the NFL. The Jets rank dead last in DVOA, 30th in DVOA against the pass, but somehow slot in at 10th in DvP against the quarterback position. I tend to put much more emphasis on the DVOA numbers than I do with DvP, as the position-specific data can be very noisy. At the onset of DFS, the masses would be fading Allen this week due to his performance last week, but these days the field is way too sharp to do something like that. For that reason, I definitely do not expect Allen to fly under the radar, but for a second week in a row he is clearly the top option at the QB position.

B. If looking to diversify off of Allen, look no further than Dak Prescott ($6,900 DK / $8,100 FD). Dak also draws one of the best matchups that a quarterback can ask for, and this time the DvP numbers back that up as well. The Atlanta Falcons have been a team that we target with opposing offenses for years now, and 2021 is certainly no different. The ATL ranks second to last, just behind the Jets, in total DVOA, while also coming in at 28th in DVOA against the pass and 24th in DvP against opposing signal callers. This game also has the lowest sack potential, which uses the strength of the falcons defensive line compared to the strength of the Cowboys offensive line. This game ranks 28th, or dead last, of the 28 games in week 10 of the NFL when it comes to sack potential. In other words, Dak is expected to have more time in the pocket and be pressured the fewest number of times out of any other quarterback taking the field this week. If you give Dak time with the weapons at his disposal in this Cowboys offense, all I can say is look out.

C. Oddly enough, the first two quarterbacks in this segment were two that I also recommended for week 9. Given that, I will look to go off the board a bit for my QB3 for NFL GPPs by targeting Taylor Heinicke ($5,400 DK / $6,900 FD). It is usually not a popular move to pay up at quarterback, so if you agree with that strategy then Heinicke is one of our top options. Taylor and the Washington Football Team offense will be taking on a formidable Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense, but this is a defense that forces the opponent to pass the ball. The Bucs rank fourth in the NFL in DVOA against the run, while “only” ranking 10th against the pass. Their overall DVOA is 9th, so make no mistake, this is not an easy matchup for Washington and that is why this is really a GPP-only option. The bright spot is that the Bucs only rank 26th in DvP against opposing quarterbacks, and that is due to the pass-heavy approach that they force other teams to adhere to. There is definitely a possibility that the WFT totally flop in this spot, but I expect the pass attempts to be plentiful which forces us to have some interest at these current price points across the DFS industry.

The Stacks

A. Even with questions surrounding the availability of one half of this backfield timeshare for the Bills, I still have little to no interest in rostering a Buffalo RB. As far as the receiving options go, Stefon Diggs continues to be our best option here, although he has obviously fallen far below expectations after his stellar season last year. Despite that, he is still able to hit a ceiling game on any given Sunday. Cole Beasley has strengthened his grip on the WR2 position for this team, however Emmanuel Sanders continues to be priced up higher across the DFS industry. Especially on DraftKings where a slot receiver like Beasley garners one full point per reception, as opposed to half a point on FanDuel, I will take the savings and fade Sanders. Maybe this is a bias that I have after rostering Sanders and being handed a 0, but Beasley seems like a much better option on FanDuel as well. Dawson Knox and Tommy Sweeney are not going to help you takedown a GPP unless they somehow grab two touchdowns, so I will keep my exposure to the two aforementioned wideouts. Even with Mike White back for the Jets, I will be avoiding this poorly coached team with a sub-18 point implied team total this week.

B. It is always more fun to write about a game where both sides of the football are intriguing as opposed to a game like the Bills vs. the Jets where only one team is viable. The Falcons and the Cowboys both have pieces that are extremely appealing from a DFS standpoint. Starting with the Boys, Ezekiel Elliott is a pass catching RB that is priced towards his all-time low as far as his DFS salary is concerned, and I do not expect him to be very popular so he is firmly in play. Michael Gallup will be returning to this pass catching squad that includes two stars in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. Gallup will push Cedrick Wilson into irrelevance, and could also take some targets away from both Cooper and Lamb. All three of these guys are in play on Sunday, and tight end Dalton Schultz is a great option at what is a notoriously weak position. On the Falcons side, we have RB/WR/Flex player Cordarrelle Patterson who literally seems to have a floor of upper teens every time that he takes the field. The wideout options are pretty slim, but Russell Gage is potentially viable despite serving up a 0 two weeks ago. Obviously the best option outside of Patterson is rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, whose price continues to rise but is still not high enough, especially for this matchup.

C. To close things out we have a game stack where the team opposing our quarterback has a plethora of more appealing options than our quarterback does. On the WFT side of the ball, Terry McLaurin is the de factor option to plug in to nearly all Taylor Heinicke lineups, but a more under the radar play is J.D. McKissic. JDM should be on the field a ton on Sunday given that Washington is expected to trail this game and lose by 9 points. He is a pass catching RB for a reasonable price tag that can really rack up the DK points with his low average depth of target (ADOT) receptions. Ricky Seals-Jones has been a DFS darling due to his cheap price tag over the last few weeks, and he is still available for quite the discount off of the big names at his position. The Buccaneers have quite a few question marks regarding player availability going into the weekend, but any of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, or Cameron Brate/Rob Gronkowski are excellent options depending on who ends up taking the field.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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Well we thought that week 8 was wild, but week 9 decided to say hold my beer. If you are still alive in survivor pools after last week then you probably either won or are very close to winning. We had a few double digit favorites forget to show up, and with my QB1 being Josh Allen last week, you can picture how my Sunday went. I am happy that we can turn the page to a new week here so let’s get to it. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. This week is the ultimate test of a “short memory for DFS”, as we have the option of going right back to the well with Josh Allen ($7,900 DK / $8,700 FD). Allen saw a price drop of $300 on both DraftKings and FanDuel after that abysmal performance in a dream matchup in week nine. The football schedule makers rewarded the Bills with yet another cakewalk of a matchup against the New York Jets for week 10 of the NFL. The Jets rank dead last in DVOA, 30th in DVOA against the pass, but somehow slot in at 10th in DvP against the quarterback position. I tend to put much more emphasis on the DVOA numbers than I do with DvP, as the position-specific data can be very noisy. At the onset of DFS, the masses would be fading Allen this week due to his performance last week, but these days the field is way too sharp to do something like that. For that reason, I definitely do not expect Allen to fly under the radar, but for a second week in a row he is clearly the top option at the QB position.

B. If looking to diversify off of Allen, look no further than Dak Prescott ($6,900 DK / $8,100 FD). Dak also draws one of the best matchups that a quarterback can ask for, and this time the DvP numbers back that up as well. The Atlanta Falcons have been a team that we target with opposing offenses for years now, and 2021 is certainly no different. The ATL ranks second to last, just behind the Jets, in total DVOA, while also coming in at 28th in DVOA against the pass and 24th in DvP against opposing signal callers. This game also has the lowest sack potential, which uses the strength of the falcons defensive line compared to the strength of the Cowboys offensive line. This game ranks 28th, or dead last, of the 28 games in week 10 of the NFL when it comes to sack potential. In other words, Dak is expected to have more time in the pocket and be pressured the fewest number of times out of any other quarterback taking the field this week. If you give Dak time with the weapons at his disposal in this Cowboys offense, all I can say is look out.

C. Oddly enough, the first two quarterbacks in this segment were two that I also recommended for week 9. Given that, I will look to go off the board a bit for my QB3 for NFL GPPs by targeting Taylor Heinicke ($5,400 DK / $6,900 FD). It is usually not a popular move to pay up at quarterback, so if you agree with that strategy then Heinicke is one of our top options. Taylor and the Washington Football Team offense will be taking on a formidable Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense, but this is a defense that forces the opponent to pass the ball. The Bucs rank fourth in the NFL in DVOA against the run, while “only” ranking 10th against the pass. Their overall DVOA is 9th, so make no mistake, this is not an easy matchup for Washington and that is why this is really a GPP-only option. The bright spot is that the Bucs only rank 26th in DvP against opposing quarterbacks, and that is due to the pass-heavy approach that they force other teams to adhere to. There is definitely a possibility that the WFT totally flop in this spot, but I expect the pass attempts to be plentiful which forces us to have some interest at these current price points across the DFS industry.

The Stacks

A. Even with questions surrounding the availability of one half of this backfield timeshare for the Bills, I still have little to no interest in rostering a Buffalo RB. As far as the receiving options go, Stefon Diggs continues to be our best option here, although he has obviously fallen far below expectations after his stellar season last year. Despite that, he is still able to hit a ceiling game on any given Sunday. Cole Beasley has strengthened his grip on the WR2 position for this team, however Emmanuel Sanders continues to be priced up higher across the DFS industry. Especially on DraftKings where a slot receiver like Beasley garners one full point per reception, as opposed to half a point on FanDuel, I will take the savings and fade Sanders. Maybe this is a bias that I have after rostering Sanders and being handed a 0, but Beasley seems like a much better option on FanDuel as well. Dawson Knox and Tommy Sweeney are not going to help you takedown a GPP unless they somehow grab two touchdowns, so I will keep my exposure to the two aforementioned wideouts. Even with Mike White back for the Jets, I will be avoiding this poorly coached team with a sub-18 point implied team total this week.

B. It is always more fun to write about a game where both sides of the football are intriguing as opposed to a game like the Bills vs. the Jets where only one team is viable. The Falcons and the Cowboys both have pieces that are extremely appealing from a DFS standpoint. Starting with the Boys, Ezekiel Elliott is a pass catching RB that is priced towards his all-time low as far as his DFS salary is concerned, and I do not expect him to be very popular so he is firmly in play. Michael Gallup will be returning to this pass catching squad that includes two stars in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. Gallup will push Cedrick Wilson into irrelevance, and could also take some targets away from both Cooper and Lamb. All three of these guys are in play on Sunday, and tight end Dalton Schultz is a great option at what is a notoriously weak position. On the Falcons side, we have RB/WR/Flex player Cordarrelle Patterson who literally seems to have a floor of upper teens every time that he takes the field. The wideout options are pretty slim, but Russell Gage is potentially viable despite serving up a 0 two weeks ago. Obviously the best option outside of Patterson is rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, whose price continues to rise but is still not high enough, especially for this matchup.

C. To close things out we have a game stack where the team opposing our quarterback has a plethora of more appealing options than our quarterback does. On the WFT side of the ball, Terry McLaurin is the de factor option to plug in to nearly all Taylor Heinicke lineups, but a more under the radar play is J.D. McKissic. JDM should be on the field a ton on Sunday given that Washington is expected to trail this game and lose by 9 points. He is a pass catching RB for a reasonable price tag that can really rack up the DK points with his low average depth of target (ADOT) receptions. Ricky Seals-Jones has been a DFS darling due to his cheap price tag over the last few weeks, and he is still available for quite the discount off of the big names at his position. The Buccaneers have quite a few question marks regarding player availability going into the weekend, but any of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, or Cameron Brate/Rob Gronkowski are excellent options depending on who ends up taking the field.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Memorial Park

7,432 Yards – Par 70 – Greens: Bermuda

It will be the second time we have seen this tournament at Memorial Park in recent memory. It was hosted here last season but hadn’t been inside of the PGA Tour rotation since 1963. The venue is one of the few municipal golf courses used on tour, costing around $30 for adults and $10 if you are under 18. That typically would lead you to believe that we are in store for a straightforward layout, but that wasn’t the case last year with a winning score of 13-under from Carlos Ortiz.

You get five par-threes and this heavy yardage total of over 7,400 yards, but I wouldn’t call this a venue where distance is the leading proponent. Sure, I think that particular variable will help decide the winner, but accuracy will be just as necessary with the way the property is designed. Large specimen oak trees are positioned to cause issues if you are wayward off the tee, and there are weird quirks throughout, including a clamshell landing area on the par-four 10th that will create problems if you go inside of it. A ravine runs throughout a handful of holes, and despite not having many bunkers, the misses are extreme because of the run-off areas.

The main difference here is that there isn’t as much undulation as we sometimes get from Tom Doak properties, but the overall structure looks like what you would expect. The track does an excellent job of featuring doglegs that move in both directions. That fact mixed with the potential for gusts means we need creativity and thought before hitting every shot, and we see that with wide areas but small targets.

  • Weighted Total Driving (20%) – I made my model 57.5% versus 42.5% of distance over accuracy. We have dog legs that go in both directions, which means while length will help, the specimen oak and small landing areas put accuracy into the mix.
  • Courses Over 7,400 Yards (10%) – That should artificially add in some measurable totals like distance, long iron proximity and an ability to handle a longer property.
  • Weighted Par-Three (7.5%) – I felt compelled to weigh the category because there are five, but I didn’t want to get overly caught up. These range all over the map in yardage, and I tried to accurately assess that narrative by having each stand solo within my weighted model. Three are over 200+ yards, so I did include a reasonable mix of long iron proximity. 
  • Weighted Par-Four (15%) – There are birdie holes at 5,13 and 17, but I prefer trying to find how the players perform at par-fours stretching over 500 yards. Five of the seven most challenging holes come between 490 to 529, and I added in some bogey avoidance and long iron proximity to complete that category.
  • Weighted Par-Five (17.5%) – We saw 61.5% of Carlos Ortiz’s winning total came there last year. Nearly 73% of Hideki Matsuyama’s second-place production. And 66.6% of Talor Gooch’s fourth-place output. The only outlier was Dustin Johnson, who wins the tournament if he does better than 18%.
  • Around The Green + GIR (15%) – It is a one-year data total. Please take that with a grain of salt, but 28.3% of the scoring dispersion came around the green last year. That is 14.3% higher than the tour average.
  • Weighted Proximity (15%) – That incorporates the full statistical breakdown of what we got last season. That is going to be a heavy mix of long iron play. Some of the weighted par total categories also include a deeper dive into specific ranges, so I think marginally de-emphasizing approach play makes sense when added in as a secondary metric elsewhere.

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Tony Finau (10,600) – Tony Finau was the top-ranked player from a statistical perspective in my model. He graded inside the top-50 in all metrics, including rating top-10 in weighted proximity, around the green + GIR, weighted par-three, weighted par-four and courses over 7,400 yards. He looks to be the lowest owned of the group at roughly 11% and carries great GPP appeal.

Cameron Smith ($10,200) – Cameron Smith has seen one of the more significant increases from Monday to Tuesday in ownership and looks to be about 15% in my model, but he possesses many of the intangibles I am trying to find. Smith is 23-ranking spots better in proximity at this course versus an average PGA Tour stop and comes into the week ranked second in par-five birdie or better, sixth in weighted par-three and sixth in strokes gained total over my long-term model.

Other Notable Players I Like – Sam Burns $11,100. You could argue he is a better cash-game play because of his popularity, but I think the price tag is reasonable for the built-in safety he brings to the table.

$9,000 Range

Brooks Koepka ($9,900) – I have been a pretty big proponent of no Brooks Koepka in non-majors over the past few months, but I am willing to come off that stance this week. Please note that Koepka would be GPP-only if you play him, but he is the most considerable model increase I have when looking at win equity versus overall rank. I’m not fond of the narrative that the American is only playable because he helped to design this track, but there is something to that when he is showing as one of the top values before we even take that into account.

Joaquin Niemann ($9,500) – Joaquin Niemann jumps off the page to me because of the leverage he creates in builds versus using Aaron Wise or Talor Gooch. I know DFS users continue to be frustrated by him because of his putter, but he has gained with his irons in 19 of his last 23 trackable starts and off the tee in 33 of 37. Perhaps that is something he can use to his advantage at a venue where missing the greens can be deadly. 

Cash Plays: Adam Scott ($9,600), Talor Gooch ($9,300), Aaron Wise ($9,200). I feel like the prices are fair on the group, but I prefer taking the safety they provide and playing them in cash.

$8,000 Range

Maverick McNealy ($8,500) – Maverick McNealy ranks 12th in both strokes gained off the tee and around the green over his last 24 rounds. We have seen him make 12 of 13 cuts in a row, including 10 of those resulting in a top-30.

Seamus Power ($8,400) – We see Seamus Power follow that same mold of Maverick McNealy. Fourteen made cuts over his past 15 starts. Eleven of those have resulted in a top-31. Form like that is very important during the offseason, and there aren’t many producing as often as those two.

GPP Pivot: Max Homa $8,000

$7,000 Range

Erik Van Rooyen $7,800 – Erik Van Rooyen carries some of the best cost versus upside potential we have talked about so far. Eleventh in my model from both an overall and upside perspective, it shouldn’t hurt matters that the South African finished 20th at the course last year. Van Rooyen ranks seventh in my weighted proximity category and is also 11th in total driving when trying to mimic the track in my spreadsheet.

Chad Ramey $7,500 – Chad Ramey seems to be one of the better Korn Ferry prospects we have entering the PGA Tour this year. His off the tee game has left something to be desired at times, but I have him 13th with his driver for this specific layout versus ranking 86th at a neutral track. Ramey’s ability to hit it long and straight should be a major benefit.

Charley Hoffman $7,300 – The recent form has been questionable, but we get all the narratives that typically spell out a Hoffman week, including Texas and wind. 

Ryan Palmer $7,100 – We saw some life from Ryan Palmer at Mayakoba last week. His preferred surface is Bermuda, and his best results tend to come in windy conditions. 

Talor Moore $7,100 – If you can’t tell, I am a big believer in a handful of these new PGA Tour kids. The one issue with Taylor Moore is that I don’t have a ton of data to work with for him up to this point, but he is the second-largest edge on the board right now in rank versus ownership.

GPP Pivot: Brian Harman ($7,100) – I love the ownership and leverage he can provide to builds

$6,000 Range

Sahith Theegala – Sahith Theegala is one of my favorite values on the board. His first place marks in bogey avoidance and scrambling should give him real upside to compete on the first page of the leaderboard if he brings his best stuff with him to Texas. 

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Luke List ($6,900) – I could do without the ownership. Tom Hoge, Lee Hodges, Peter Uihlein, Trey Mullinax, Wyndham Clark, Francesco Molinari

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

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The PGA Tour travels to Texas for one of the last two chances to earn some valuable FedEx Cup points before the end of the 2021 calendar year. Last year’s winner, Carlos Ortiz, set the 72-hole course record at 267 (-13) on his way to taking home the title. Of note were both Hideki Matsuyama and Taylor Gooch, who also set 18 hole course records when they shot 7-under 63’s in the 4th round trying to run down Ortiz. Deki didn’t make the trip this year as I’m sure he’s still living it up after his win at the Zozo in Japan. I expect we’ll be hearing a bit more from the other two later in this article after both made great runs to try and catch last week’s winner, Viktor Hovland. We have another loaded field this week with 14 major champions as well as some previous winners here in Carlo Ortiz, Russell Henley, Ian Poulter, Lanto Griffin, Jim Herman and Adam Scott (coming off a T5 finish at The C.J. Cup).

Please keep in mind that even though the Houston Open has a long track record of statistics for us to look at, this is only the 2nd year it will be played at Memorial Park Golf Course. This 7432 yard, par 70 municipal course was redesigned by Tom Doak in 2019 with the help of Brooks Koepka. Distance will certainly be a factor with 5 lengthy par 3’s, and 9 of the 10 par 4’s stretching over 400 yards (5 of them are closer to 500+). One thing I’ve noticed about Texas golf is that there aren’t a lot of trees. So contrary to last week, our SG:OTT metric will lean heavier on distance than accuracy. This course also features strategically placed bunkers in front of fast undulating Bermuda greens, with plenty of short grass run-offs to boot. This should put a big emphasis on SG:APP for that all important 2nd shot. With a median 4-round cut line at -1, I don’t see this as a “birdie fest”. It looks to be more of an “all around game” type course. Grab some Bermuda putters and let’s take a look at who we’re targeting this week.

Key Metrics (in order)

SG:APP (approach)

SG:OTT

Driving Distance

Par 4’s 450-500

Par 3’s 200+

Par 5’s 550-600

SG:P (putting, Bermuda)

SG:ARG (around the green)

Initial Picks

Sam Burns ($11100) – I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t start here. What is there to say? He grades out in almost every category in the top 10, and continues to perform at an elite level. Sam’s also the Houston Open betting favorite. I’m just not sure I can get there at this price.

Scottie Scheffler ($10900) – Most likely where my core starts. A Texas native that has been very close to securing a win for some time now. I’m a bit biased as he’s one of my favorite golfers to begin with. 4th place last week at Mayakoba, and a T12 at The Scottish Open (also a Doak course) and now he’s going home looking for that elusive 1st PGA win.

Cam Smith ($10200) – Stats never jump out at you but top 10 in long par 4’s, top 10 SG:TOT. He’s elite once he gets close. T9 shaking the rust off at The C.J. Cup.

Brooks Koepka ($9900) – I gotta mention him because he DID help design the Houston Open course. He also finished T5 here last year. I hate some of the narratives floating around this guy, like he only plays these events if they promise to let his brothers (Chase flat $6K) SUSPECT skill set join the field. Not crazy about the state of his game right now. I’m not going here, but you should at least consider it.

Adam Scott ($9600) – You gotta at least give him a long hard contrarian (GPP) look here.  His form is coming around a bit as reflected in some of his recent finishes.

Taylor Gooch ($9300) – I just love this kid. Many compliments coming from both his peers and the industry in regards to where he’s going. Top 10 in the Par 4 category. Here’s his season so far: T4, T11, T5, T11. His problem was spraying it off the tee until he proved me wrong last week. He’s got B2B T4’s here and set the 18 hole record on THIS COURSE last year. He’s a bit pricey, but you gotta give him a long hard look. Gooch is the 5th favorite on the betting board but 11th in salary on DK.

Aaron Wise ($9200) – I don’t know what else to say here either. Ranks best in this field. Just continues to perform at an elite level no matter where we go. T11 here last year and he’s a lot better now. Play him until he gives us a reason not to.

I absolutely LOVE starting my builds this week with 3 of the 4 (Scottie, Cam, Gooch, Wise) and mixing and matching. Gotta start moving a bit faster now though cause I can’t just list everyone in the field.

Carlos Ortiz ($9100) – Coming off a T2 in his home country last week at Mayakoba and making his 1st ever title defense.

Maverick McNealy ($8500) and Seamus Power ($8400) – Virtually the same across the betting board. Both are playing at the top of their games and I wouldn’t blame you for taking either one or both. I’m leaning on Power between the two for his length.

Mito Pereira ($7700) – I’m fading him this week because it just hasn’t been there, but you should at least consider him.

Taylor Pendrith ($7200) – Burned me last week, but I just can’t stop playing him. Rates out well in my model.

Ryan Palmer ($7100) – Too cheap for him here. Always plays well in Texas, he’s long, has decent form coming in, and finished T4 at The Scottish Open (that Doak course I mentioned earlier).

Greyson Sigg ($6700) –  I just like this kid, and he can stripe it. Bermuda’s not his best but I like him to make the cut at this price.

Honorable Mention:

Brandon Grace, Chad Ramey, Jhonattan Vegas, Jason Day, Ian Poulter, Sahith Theegala, Aaron Rai, Hudson Swafford, Stephan Jaeger, Adam Svensson and Paul Barjon.

WinDaily has 4 other tools coming at you later this week to help with your process of building winning Draftkings lineups. Check out the live show on Tuesday night with Sia, Joel, and Spencer which will cover all things Houston Open. Both Antonio and Spencer also release articles later in the week as well. Check back on Wednesday evening to catch Steven’s ownership article to help you nail down those final low-owned guys that’ll get you that big GPP win. As always, make sure to stop into the WinDaily Discord room to ask questions from our stellar PGA team or just compare notes with some of the other members of our family.

If you haven’t already, follow WinDailysports on YouTube and via Apple podcasts to check out ALL the content at WinDailySports.com. We’ve been hitting big with our NFL, NBA, and NHL content and you’re going to want to be part of that. Hope you enjoyed this article.

– Isaiah

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Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 9 Titans at Rams 11.7.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

***Quick shoutout to our subscriber Warner Bros who in just a few short weeks with us has binked in two different showdown slates leading to over 34K in winnings. Keep it up and welcome to the team!

Vegas Script: Total: 53, Rams -7.5

I don’t know what to make of this contest without Henry. Will the Titan’s abandon the run and throw the ball 50+ times? Will Peterson be some kind of reasonable analogue of the King for a few weeks? Will the Titan’s be completely out of rhythm and end up losing by multiple scores? This is an odd one to handicap so if you play showdown tonight you really need to build numerous lineups that will tell each story to give yourself the best shot at success.

Captains:

Chalk: Matt Stafford $19,200:

Against that Charmin toilet paper soft defense of the Titans, Matt Stafford should absolutely smash and it makes a ton of sense that he will be the highest owned captain on the slate. Nothing much need to be discussed here. Stafford is playing at an MVP caliber and the Titans are bad on the defensive side.

Pivot: Ryan Tannehill, $14,700:

With King Henry expected to miss the rest of the season, the hopes and dreams and the franchise rests on the right arm of Tannehill. We do not have a huge sample to go off but if there was a day that Tanny would end up throwing the ball 50 times this is the one. With No Henry, or Evans, the Titans are stuck with Jeremy McNichols and Adrian Peterson as their primary backs.

Contrarian #1: Cooper Kupp, $18,600:

Cooper Kupp is all of our daddies at this point. I though he was going to be good with Stafford at the helm, I did not however to expect him to play like a god amongst me, racking up more fantasy points than any other wide receiver in the history of the NFL through 8 weeks. He is a lock button for me tonight. If he isn’t a captain he will be in my flex, 100%, no doubt. Do not fade him.

Contrarian #2: AJ Brown, $15,300:

It is safe to say that without Henry, AJ Brown will find himself near the top of the NFL in targets going into the second half of the year. The Titans have no other choice but to change to a pass first offense and they do not have a ton of depth. Brown, Julio, rinse and repeat. If the Titans go down big tonight Brown is looking at 12 targets as his floor and he can turn any one of them into a big play.

Contrarian #3: Darrell Henderson, $13,800:

With the Rams as 7.5 point favorites Henderson should have every opportunity to go ham against Tennessee’s soft defense. I’ve been trying to gauge this contest without Henry and if you were to tell me that LA trounces the Titans by 21+ points and Henderson ended up with 15 carries in the second half for 98 yards and 2 TD’s I would not be surprised in the least.

WDS Stoweby’s WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 9 Titans at Rams 11.7 Flex plays:

  1. Matthew Stafford
  2. .Ryan Tannehill
  3. Cooper Kupp
  4. AJ Brown
  5. Darrell Henderson
  6. Julio Jones
  7. Robert Woods
  8. Jeremy McNichols
  9. Van Jefferson
  10. Geoff Swaim
  11. Adrian Peterson
  12. Anthony Firkser
  13. Tyler Higbee
  14. .Matt Gay
  15. Rodney Bullock
  16. Sony Michel
  17. Chester Rodgers
  18. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
  19. Marcus Johnson

Kickers and defenses:

If you were dead set on using a defense in this contest I could co-sign on the Rams. While on paper, the Titans do have several weapons still available to them there is a non zero percentage chance that they will struggle to change their play style and the Rams newly upgraded defensive front could be in the Titan’s backfield all day leading to sack and turnovers. As far as kickers go, it may be difficult to find cheaper priced guys that can provide you with the same upside in a 51 total game so if you want to go for a kicker as your final piece I would not be against it.

It is time folks and I hope that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 9 WDS Stoweby’s WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 9 Titans at Rams 11.7 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Heading into week 9 of the NFL, we saw two teams that looked unstoppable in the Buccaneers and the Cardinals both lose in shocking fashion to two shorthanded teams. The New Orleans Saints were missing their quarterback for a good portion of the game and the Packers were missing their top three wideouts. This was yet another reminder that truly anything can happen in the NFL, as anyone that picked the Bengals in survivor pools can attest to. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. I will cut right to the chase and say that the clear cut top quarterback option this Sunday is Josh Allen ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD). The best part is, he should not even be too chalky on DraftKings, although he should be as chalky as he was in week 8 or potentially even chalkier over on FanDuel. It is much easier to afford expensive quarterbacks on FanDuel, whereas the field generally tries to either pay down at QB or shoot for the mid-tier on DK. Allen will be facing statistically the worst defense in the NFL in general, and also the worst defense in the NFL against the pass, according to DVOA. The Jaguars rank the 23rd worst in the NFL against opposing quarterbacks, and they are 26th against both wide receivers and tight ends. In other words, this team just cannot defend the pass very well at all. I will let others try to fade Allen here due to either ownership or a potential blowout, but despite the 2 touchdown+ spread, if the Bills blow this team out then Josh Allen will have 3+ TDs and plenty of passing yards to his name. Let others play the ownership fade on FanDuel, and take advantage of potentially low ownership over on DK with their strict pricing and salary cap.

B. If looking to diversify off of Allen, look no further than Taysom Hill ($5,500 DK / $7,000 FD). Hill is clearly underpriced across the industry for his new role, I mean we are talking about a guy who scored nearly 19 points on DraftKings in a game that Winston played in! Hill is apt to get us the six points for a rushing touchdown as opposed to just the four points for a passing touchdown, but he can certainly do both. The Saints draw the hapless Atlanta Falcons in week 9 of the NFL, who rank 3rd to last in DVOA through 8 weeks. They also rank 29th in DVOA against the pass and 24th in defending opposing quarterbacks. On top of this, the Falcons rank 27th in adjusted sack rate, meaning the likelihood of Taysom facing pressure when he does throw the ball is extremely low. The Saints also have the 9th highest run potential grade of the week, based on the combination of their strong offensive line against the Falcons mediocre defensive line. Load up on Taysom and the Saints as they look to keep rolling after their extremely impressive win over the Bucs.

C. The final quarterback that I will be looking to get exposure to in tournaments on Sunday is Dak Prescott ($6,900 DK / $7,900 FD), who happened to practice in full on Thursday. Dak will be welcomed back from his short break with a juicy matchup against a beatable Denver Broncos defense that ranks 25th in DVOA. While this defense is stronger against the pass than they are against the run, we know that this team depends on Dak regardless, and they will be sure to put the ball in his hands frequently this weekend. The strange part of this is that despite ranking 21st in DVOA against the pass, the Broncos are 3rd in DvP against opposing quarterbacks. I will side with the defense against the pass numbers here as the Broncos have not faced many quarterbacks of Dak’s caliber. The Cowboys are another near double-digit favorite for Sunday and I expect Zeke and Dak to eat.

The Stacks

A. Whelp, I made the mistake of stacking Emmanuel Sanders with Josh Allen in week 8 and was rewarded with a nice goose egg in my lineup for my troubles. While we need to have a short memory in DFS, Sanders is still more expensive than Cole Beasley, who is clearly the safer option with a similar, or arguably even higher, floor/ceiling combination. I will not be returning to the Sanders well, but Beasley and Diggs are the two receiving options that I will look to in this matchup. Tommy Sweeney is a big red zone target for Allen, but outside of a touchdown catch he does not contribute much and really does not have the ceiling that we are looking for to take down GPPs. On the Jaguars side of the ball, we are left with Laviska Shenault and whatever is left of Marvin Jones. I will pass on the wideouts from this team, but Dan Arnold came through for us as DFS chalk in week 8 and saw the commensurate price bump. I still think that he is a fine option despite the higher price tag, as he will now carry a fraction of the ownership and he is clearly a solid target for rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

B. Now this is a game that we can really load up on from both sides of the football. Despite this Saints team being hit with bad news from both the QB and WR positions last week, they are at least returning their backup QB Taysom Hill, even though there were rumors that he could retire due to concussions. The situation definitely gets a lot trickier with Taysom at the helm, because he could easily steal red zone touches and rushing touchdowns from Kamara. I will likely take a wait and see approach with Alvin, but I am also fine getting some exposure to him in the hopes that Taysom dumps the ball off to him frequently. Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith outline our top two options at wide receiver, and Smith will be happy to have Hill under center after his public falling out with Jameis Winston. Both of these two are fine flier options, but we should likely limit our exposure to just one of them per lineup. On the Falcons side, we have the continued resurgence of Cordarrelle Patterson as an offensive juggernaut for us to target, along with potentially a cheap and low-owned Mike Davis if we want to get weird. Russell Gage and UMass Amherst’s own Tajae Sharpe are two potential bring-backs, but the best pass-catching option for us is of course Kyle Pitts. This is easily my favorite game to stack up this week, despite the total sitting at only 42.

C. Closing things out with a game that has a much higher total of nearly 50, we have the Denver Broncos taking on the Dallas Cowboys. Dak will have all of his typical weapons healthy in this game, so we can look to Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Dalton Schultz. While I certainly would not look to target all 4 of these top options in any single lineup, I am definitely fine getting to two or three of them given the upside that this team has shown, and their juicy matchup at home. The Broncos will be returning Jerry Jeudy, and it will be interesting to see how his return impacts Cortland Sutton. Tim Patrick may take the largest hit in terms of his production, but all three are viable in GPPs on Sunday. We also have yet another viable TE bring-back in the form of Noah Fant, so this game is definitely right up there with the Falcons/Saints as a top option for week 9 of the NFL, but keep in mind this game will likely carry significant ownership.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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Heading into week 9 of the NFL, we saw two teams that looked unstoppable in the Buccaneers and the Cardinals both lose in shocking fashion to two shorthanded teams. The New Orleans Saints were missing their quarterback for a good portion of the game and the Packers were missing their top three wideouts. This was yet another reminder that truly anything can happen in the NFL, as anyone that picked the Bengals in survivor pools can attest to. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. I will cut right to the chase and say that the clear cut top quarterback option this Sunday is Josh Allen ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD). The best part is, he should not even be too chalky on DraftKings, although he should be as chalky as he was in week 8 or potentially even chalkier over on FanDuel. It is much easier to afford expensive quarterbacks on FanDuel, whereas the field generally tries to either pay down at QB or shoot for the mid-tier on DK. Allen will be facing statistically the worst defense in the NFL in general, and also the worst defense in the NFL against the pass, according to DVOA. The Jaguars rank the 23rd worst in the NFL against opposing quarterbacks, and they are 26th against both wide receivers and tight ends. In other words, this team just cannot defend the pass very well at all. I will let others try to fade Allen here due to either ownership or a potential blowout, but despite the 2 touchdown+ spread, if the Bills blow this team out then Josh Allen will have 3+ TDs and plenty of passing yards to his name. Let others play the ownership fade on FanDuel, and take advantage of potentially low ownership over on DK with their strict pricing and salary cap.

B. If looking to diversify off of Allen, look no further than Taysom Hill ($5,500 DK / $7,000 FD). Hill is clearly underpriced across the industry for his new role, I mean we are talking about a guy who scored nearly 19 points on DraftKings in a game that Winston played in! Hill is apt to get us the six points for a rushing touchdown as opposed to just the four points for a passing touchdown, but he can certainly do both. The Saints draw the hapless Atlanta Falcons in week 9 of the NFL, who rank 3rd to last in DVOA through 8 weeks. They also rank 29th in DVOA against the pass and 24th in defending opposing quarterbacks. On top of this, the Falcons rank 27th in adjusted sack rate, meaning the likelihood of Taysom facing pressure when he does throw the ball is extremely low. The Saints also have the 9th highest run potential grade of the week, based on the combination of their strong offensive line against the Falcons mediocre defensive line. Load up on Taysom and the Saints as they look to keep rolling after their extremely impressive win over the Bucs.

C. The final quarterback that I will be looking to get exposure to in tournaments on Sunday is Dak Prescott ($6,900 DK / $7,900 FD), who happened to practice in full on Thursday. Dak will be welcomed back from his short break with a juicy matchup against a beatable Denver Broncos defense that ranks 25th in DVOA. While this defense is stronger against the pass than they are against the run, we know that this team depends on Dak regardless, and they will be sure to put the ball in his hands frequently this weekend. The strange part of this is that despite ranking 21st in DVOA against the pass, the Broncos are 3rd in DvP against opposing quarterbacks. I will side with the defense against the pass numbers here as the Broncos have not faced many quarterbacks of Dak’s caliber. The Cowboys are another near double-digit favorite for Sunday and I expect Zeke and Dak to eat.

The Stacks

A. Whelp, I made the mistake of stacking Emmanuel Sanders with Josh Allen in week 8 and was rewarded with a nice goose egg in my lineup for my troubles. While we need to have a short memory in DFS, Sanders is still more expensive than Cole Beasley, who is clearly the safer option with a similar, or arguably even higher, floor/ceiling combination. I will not be returning to the Sanders well, but Beasley and Diggs are the two receiving options that I will look to in this matchup. Tommy Sweeney is a big red zone target for Allen, but outside of a touchdown catch he does not contribute much and really does not have the ceiling that we are looking for to take down GPPs. On the Jaguars side of the ball, we are left with Laviska Shenault and whatever is left of Marvin Jones. I will pass on the wideouts from this team, but Dan Arnold came through for us as DFS chalk in week 8 and saw the commensurate price bump. I still think that he is a fine option despite the higher price tag, as he will now carry a fraction of the ownership and he is clearly a solid target for rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

B. Now this is a game that we can really load up on from both sides of the football. Despite this Saints team being hit with bad news from both the QB and WR positions last week, they are at least returning their backup QB Taysom Hill, even though there were rumors that he could retire due to concussions. The situation definitely gets a lot trickier with Taysom at the helm, because he could easily steal red zone touches and rushing touchdowns from Kamara. I will likely take a wait and see approach with Alvin, but I am also fine getting some exposure to him in the hopes that Taysom dumps the ball off to him frequently. Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith outline our top two options at wide receiver, and Smith will be happy to have Hill under center after his public falling out with Jameis Winston. Both of these two are fine flier options, but we should likely limit our exposure to just one of them per lineup. On the Falcons side, we have the continued resurgence of Cordarrelle Patterson as an offensive juggernaut for us to target, along with potentially a cheap and low-owned Mike Davis if we want to get weird. Russell Gage and UMass Amherst’s own Tajae Sharpe are two potential bring-backs, but the best pass-catching option for us is of course Kyle Pitts. This is easily my favorite game to stack up this week, despite the total sitting at only 42.

C. Closing things out with a game that has a much higher total of nearly 50, we have the Denver Broncos taking on the Dallas Cowboys. Dak will have all of his typical weapons healthy in this game, so we can look to Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Dalton Schultz. While I certainly would not look to target all 4 of these top options in any single lineup, I am definitely fine getting to two or three of them given the upside that this team has shown, and their juicy matchup at home. The Broncos will be returning Jerry Jeudy, and it will be interesting to see how his return impacts Cortland Sutton. Tim Patrick may take the largest hit in terms of his production, but all three are viable in GPPs on Sunday. We also have yet another viable TE bring-back in the form of Noah Fant, so this game is definitely right up there with the Falcons/Saints as a top option for week 9 of the NFL, but keep in mind this game will likely carry significant ownership.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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