Having selected winner Vincent Norrman at 45/1 and Ryan Fox in 3rd at 40/1 at the Irish Open, it was a week of what could have been at the BMW PGA Championship. Undoubtedly, my fellow countryman Ryan Fox was a deserving winner. The composure he displayed down the final stretch was incredibly compelling. Despite the huge number of arguably bigger names breathing down his neck, Fox recovered from a triple bogey on the 3rd hole to play the final 15 at 8-under. He continues to impress in the big moments and an even bigger 2024 could well be imminent. Could he upset our Open de France picks?
A couple of those bigger names were our headline selections, with Tommy Fleetwood 14/1 and Tom Kim 25/1 sitting just one and two shots back respectively. They both managed to capitulate over the course of the final round, but it was pleasing as always to have live chances well in contention. We also cashed Top 40 bets on Shubhankar Sharma (150/1) and Julien Brun (180/1). It has also been a great year for us at the national opens, having tipped the winner at the US Open, Canadian Open, Irish Open, and British Masters. Can we follow up with a winner at the golf French Open? What a fantastic back-drop to set the scene for our Cazoo Open de France picks!
Course Analysis of the Albatros Course at Le Golf National
With another Ryder Cup just a week away, the DP World Tour returns to a former Ryder Cup venue for our Open de France picks. Le Golf National hosted the 2018 Ryder Cup, where Team Europe handed Team USA a thumping 17.5-10.5. Part of the reason can be found in the course on display this week.
This quirky course has historically provided a stern test. The event moved to October, which hosted the last two renditions in 2019 and 2022 (2020 and 2021 cancelled due to COVID-19). In those events, longer drivers had done well without excluding those lacking distance off the tee. My suspicion is that this tournament will play more as it used to, with a well documented heat wave across Europe providing the firmer conditions previously seen when this was played in summer.
Meanwhile, back to that 2018 Ryder Cup walloping, the Europe victory came down to the fact this is a tricky and positional course which nullifies driving ability. That was frustrating for the Americans, who typical strength of longer driving distance was mitigated by the elements they faced. And with a fast course presented this week, I suspect we face more of the same here for our Open de France picks.
As the multitude of water hazards and unique mounds narrowing the fairways, you’ll see players reaching for a lofted wood or iron off the tee here more often. The key then lies in driving accuracy and precise iron play. Despite the slight reversion towards driving distance the last two years, it is hard to deny Migliozzi, Rasmus Hojgaard, and Colsaerts can absolute flush their irons on their day.
Other than that, avoiding the big mistakes and plotting your way around the course is key with a winning score of -12 to -16 likely.
Comp Courses for our Open de France Picks
Firstly, I’ll note that course history is stickier here than most. Play well here, you have a significantly better chance of doing so again. If you’ve hated the course, you could be in for a tough week. Much of this comes down to the unique nature of this course, which seems rather polarizing for many players.
Celtic Manor provides extremely strong form lines and it is easy to see why. Another Ryder Cup stadium course hosting in 2010, the course features numerous water hazards and narrowing fairways. And, although Celtic Manor admittedly plays longer, that recipe is what our Open de France picks will face this week. Even visually the courses look relatively similar.
Form lines can be found through Graeme McDowall, Alex Noren, and Thongchai Jaidee have won at both golf courses. Thomas Pieters holds a 3rd at both. Jamie Donaldson a 6th and 4th. Uihlein and Sterne have a runner up at both courses. Luiten has won at Celtic Manor and finished 9th and 11th here. Colsaerts had a 4th and 18th at Celtic Manor and won at Le Golf National in 2019. Certainly, it is one of the strongest form links you will find all season.
Other notable courses include Valderrama, whose narrow tree lined fairways and quirky test holds similarities as do leaderboards. Additionally, Valderrama tests the nerve of a golfer with bogeys inevitable and similar winning scores. Your ability to maintain composure can be as important as scoring here. Other similar course guides can be found at Diamond, Eichenreid, and a Challenge Tour event in France the Le Vaudreuil Golf Challenge.
Weather
Certainly, the weather looks tumultuous to say the least over the first two days. The course should receive some very welcome rain for the region on Thursday. The majority of this should occur in the morning. Notably though, this is forecast to be joined by high winds. Gusts in the morning look set to reach above 30mph consistently with prevailing winds in the mid-teens.
Conversely, Friday looks another windy day but with the best conditions in the morning. There is also no rain on the radar. I imagine we see those in the morning benefit from the moisture left in the ground. I don’t suspect this softening in the ground to last long. With high winds and sun in the afternoon, combined with a very hot and dry summer, should see the moisture burn off swiftly.
All of this leads to a firm weather edge to those going off Thursday afternoon and Friday morning over their first two rounds. The majority of our Cazoo Open de France picks come from that weather wave. Therefore, I would be giving a firm weighting of 40% of my DFS lineups favouring that side of the draw. Obviously, the weather can flip at any time and you should be monitoring this for your Open de France picks right up to lock. However, this forecast has remained consistent all week. Back it with confidence and keep your fingers crossed.
Open de France Picks
Suggested Staking
Alexander Bjork
2.5pts E/W +2200 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Adrian Otaegui
2pts E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Connor Syme – Your Open de France Picks Favourite
2.5pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Julien Brun
1pt E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
and
2pt Top 20 +320 (Unibet)
Callum Shinkwin – Your Open de France Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
and
2pt Top 20 +375 (Bet365)
James Morrison
1pt E/W +15000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
and
2pt Top 20 +550 (Unibet)
Soren Kjeldsen
0.5pt E/W +30000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
and
1pt Top 20 +800 (Bet365)
and
2pt Top 40 +275 (Bet365)
Summary
Thank you reading our Open de France picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!
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