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The Sentry Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s best bets and player profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Sungjae Im is our favourite play from our Sentry betting tips

Before getting into our betting tips for The Sentry, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. Here I provide my deep-dive analysis of the course, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament.

There are a few notables worth discussing first. Collin Morikawa holds clear appeal. Obviously, he has strong links to Hawaii and has never finished worse than 7th in 4 starts at The Sentry. However, the spectacular capitulation to hand Jon Rahm victory here could well play on his mind. I also held concerns about his ability to play in the wind, which is expected to get reasonably strong on two days of play. Therefore, he misses out on the Sentry betting tips.

Justin Rose held appeal, given his strong Masters record and excellent performances at the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas. Similarly, Keegan Bradley was considered before his poor record at both Augusta National and Albany alongside poor showings in his last two Sentry starts saw others preferred.

The Sentry Golf Betting Tips

Results
25 units in, 60.31 units out

Updated 8 Jan 8:30PM ET
Jordan Spieth
3rd – Top 5 at +625
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Tony Finau
38th
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Sungjae Im – The Sentry Betting Tips Favourite
5th – Top 5 at +825 (reduced to -117 due dead-heat)
2.5pt E/W +3300 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Sepp Straka
12th – Top 20 at +162
1pt E/W +6600 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +162 (William Hill)

Sahith Theegala – The Sentry Betting Tips Best Value
2nd – Top 5 at +2000 and Top 20 at +190
1pt E/W +8000 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +180 (William Hill)

We also gave out Theegala as First-Round Leader on the PGA Draftcast, which hit at 60/1!
Tune in on YouTube Tuesdays at 9PM ET as we give out our favourite DFS plays and free FRL bets.

The Sentry Betting Tips Player Profiles

Jordan Spieth – 3rd

It is likely fair to say that Spieth has been out of sorts for a couple of season now. In 2022, he finished in the Top 5 in just 13% of his starts and only really claimed victory at the RBC Heritage as others crumbled around him. Three of those were on our card that week, but I digress.

2023 was a winless season, but did see some improvement finishing in the top 5 in 21% of his starts. No doubt, he will be eager to begin 2024 on a positive note. The Plantation Course at Kapalua could prove the perfect antidote.

We spoke about the correlation from The Masters to The Sentry in our tournament preview article. And, we obviously know what Spieth does at Augusta National. His 2nd on debut was quickly followed by victory the following year and another runner up. He has added another two 3rd place finishes and a 4th in 2023. That means he has finished 4th or better in 60% of his starts at The Masters.

It is no surprise then that he won this tournament in 2016. Again, that came after a runner-up finish on first sight. He finished 9th or better in his first 4 starts here. Falling off the boil in 2022 and 2023 (21st and 13th respectively) coincides with his general regression in form over that period.

Of promise though was a return to form in December, finishing 6th at the Hero World Challenge. A mediocre 71 in the 3rd round put paid to his chances there, but it was a glimmer of hope that Spieth could kick-start 2024 in the best way possible.

Tony Finau – 38th

Next in our Sentry betting tips is Tony Finau. Given his propensity to be a perennial close finisher, he had been referred to as “T2 Tony” by some. Finau broke free of the shackles of that reputation in 2022.

Back-to-back wins that year were followed by a 2023 season where he again got over the finish line twice. The latter of those victories came at the Mexico Open over absent defending champion Jon Rahm. Vidanta Vallarta is far from the worst comp course. The wide open fairways, long irons, and low scoring are all common to what is required at Plantation.

Finau already holds a 9th and 7th at this tournament and boasts 3 top 10s at the Masters, where he has never missed the cut. However, the form at the Hero World Challenge is what really caught my eye. He holds a record around Albany of 2-10-7-7-4. That most recent 4th included holding the first round lead, with another 67 coming in the final round.

Much of the final result will come down to Finau’s ability to get the putter rolling. But, when he does so, he now wins golf tournaments. The putter again looked to be leaning towards the right direction towards the end of 2023, and a fast start to the season would not surprise at a course where he has always looked a likely sort.

Sungjae Im – 5th
The Sentry Betting Tips Favourite

I really like the number currently available around Sungjae Im this week. Sungjae was 5th on his first look at this course, a tournament where he also lead the field in SG: tee-to-green and actually lost strokes putting. He has subsequently finished 8th and 13th in his other two appearances here.

Of course, Im has also flashed at Augusta National. The runner-up finish on Masters debut was obviously eye-catching, but he has then gone on to add an 8th and 16th place finish there as well. He has only played the Hero World Challenge once, finishing 8th in 2022. There, he was able to overcome the 3rd worst opening round (74) to continually improve throughout the week.

Sungjae Im has always been a golfer who has promised more. It is perhaps surprising that he is still only 25 years old. For context, he is just 18 months older than Ludvig Aberg. The end of 2023 held much promise for Im. Outside a lackluster Tour Championship, he quietly finished 14th or better in his final 5 tournaments of the year. 2024 could well be the year he kicks on to bigger things.

Sepp Straka – 12th

Sepp Straka has cemented himself as one of the ultimate boom-or-bust plays in golf. When looking at longer odds, that is always going to hold some appeal and more-so in a reduced field size.

It was another fantastic year in 2023, most notable for winning the John Deere Classic before finishing runner-up at The Open Championship.

The Masters record is just ok, although he has made the cut in his two starts there. He arrives here off another recent runner-up finish in the Hero World Challenge at Albany. He overcame a mediocre even par opening round there, quickly finding his feet and finishing with an excellent 64 in the final round. Similar can be said for his single appearance here, where he finished 68-67 over the weekend and improved in each round.

Additionally, in that sole Sentry appearance he was 2nd in the field for SG: Approach. And it is that which we are buying into; his absolute ability to get red-hot with his irons and putter on his day.

Sahith Theegala – 2nd
The Sentry Betting Tips Best Value

Another longer odds selection with seemingly endless upside to close out our Sentry betting tips. Sahith Theegala secured his inaugural PGA Tour win towards the tail-end of 2023. It was a victory that many saw coming, with his notably aggressive style of play lending itself to top finishes or ending at the bottom half of the field.

Theegala struggled at this course in 2023. However, a deeper dive into his numbers that week reveal that he was actually 10th in the field for SG: Approach and 2nd worst for putting that week. Theegala is certainly an excellent putter, ranking 13th on the PGA Tour over the last 6 months. Additionally, some of his best putting performances have come on bermudagrass as we find here. Notably, the Arnold Palmer Invitational and RSM Classic come to mind.

Of course, then was the 9th on Masters debut. That really felt like a significant moment for Theegala in his fledgling career; a sign to all of us that he can truly holds the ability to compete with the best. That, when combined with his near perfect correlation to the ideal course fit for this track, makes the 80/1 currently available far too juicy to resist.

What a start to 2024!

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LIV PGA Tour merger talks delayed: What does 2024 hold for the future of golf?

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Jon Rahm announcing he signed with LIV Golf shocked the golfing world and disrupted LIV PGA Tour merger talks

In a move widely expected, given the imminent arrival of the self-imposed 31 December deadline, The Telegraph is now reporting that merger talks between LIV and PGA Tour will be extended. Obviously, this is no surprise for many. The 6 June shock announcement from the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund and the PGA Tour to lay down their weapons and move towards a reunification of golf was surprisingly light on any detail. With rumours that meetings were still to occur all through December, including a “final” meeting on the D-Day of 31 December itself, an outcome in time for 2024 seemed unlikely.

Further, contributing to the delay were antitrust investigations into the deal by the U.S. Justice Department and the emergence of the Strategic Sports Group as another potential investor. And, of course, the shock announcement that Jon Rahm had decided to sign with LIV Golf rocking the golf world. Make no bones about it; securing the scalp of Jon Rahm was a major boon for LIV Golf. It was his Masters victory which likely made the defection easier to stomach for Rahm. It granted him multiple years with guaranteed entry to all four majors. With LIV denied OWGR points, due a lack of clear pathways for earning (or losing) a card other than answering the phone, certainty of major entries was essential for Rahm. Further, it is speculated Rahm had become disillusioned with leadership from the negotiating team and, particularly, Patrick Cantlay’s emergence as a supposed leading voice in those talks.

It’s fair that golf fans have grown restless, frustrated, and despondent for the continual disruptions. So fans find themselves once again asking the question: what now for the future of professional golf?

Scenario 1: LIV PGA Tour merger confirmed in 2024

Perhaps the most likely outcome is that at some point in early 2024 the LIV PGA Tour merger is finally confirmed. Speculation is that the new deadline will be moved to end of March, before the latest LIV defector Jon Rahm defends his green jacket at the 2024 Masters.

What the Rahm move means is the onus is now on the PGA Tour to find a solution. Losing one of the four biggest names in the sport is a golf ball sized pill to swallow. The thought of two of their flagship events, the Sentry Tournament of Champions and the Genesis Invitational at Riviera, being without their defending champion is a bad look. Rahm is one of the few names in golf that actually move the needle in viewership.

The exact shape of that deal remains to be seen. Undoubtedly, team golf would form an element. Several LIV contracts have included equity in their respective teams for their key signings. The best scenario for fans would likely see LIV move to a team only format, drawing on players from both the PGA and DP World Tours. The current LIV format is messy, confusing, and the viewership numbers show it has simply not connected with fans in the way they hoped. Separating team golf and individual golf would provide clarity.

Most importantly for fans, it would see the best golfers play together more often. Otherwise, the sport risks becoming tennis where the major championships are the only time the best all compete. Or worse, boxing where fans are left to contemplate what title really matters. The merger remains a very possible resolution. And one which could see Jon Rahm get his $USD500m cake and be able to eat it too.

Scenario 2: PGA Tour and Strategic Sports Group form a new deal

Another possibility is that the PGA Tour utilise the expiration of the 31 December deadline and the DOJ investigation to back out of the LIV PGA Tour merger. The emergence of another potential investor was not expected. However, it became clear this was a preference for the PGA Tour when players gained further voices on the board and Tiger Woods made obvious his sentiments on the matter.

This comes with some problems. First, let’s be very clear. There is no viable business case for the current deals being signed for players. Yes: Jon Rahm is a very, very good golfer. But, he is simply not worth $US500m for a deal rumoured to be for 3-5 years. To put the number in perspective, the PGA Tour generates about 10% of the revenue of the NBA. Rahm’s deal alone is worth about a third of all revenue generated by golf in a year from all sources. It is roughly double the highest paid NBA player.

Unlike PIF, other entities expect and need a return on their investment. The Saudi PIF have already demonstrated they don’t necessarily care about a direct financial return from buying professional golf. More, they may benefit indirectly through sports washing and non-linear business deals made adjacent to LIV tournaments.

Therefore, it’s a reasonable assumption any money invested by Fenway will not be to the exorbitant extents PIF are offering. It could provide a temporary solution. But it is unlikely sustainable for more than a few years to compete with LIV. Whether LIV agree to allow SSG a seat at the table in a triangular agreement remains to be seen.

Scenario 3: LIV PGA Tour talks dissolve

This possibility likely sends a shiver down the spines of golf fans. The status quo would be a huge blow to golf fans. Perhaps we were blissfully naive as fans to be able to watch all the best players regularly compete against one another. But there is a real chance we don’t see those times again for the foreseeable future.

Further, the move of Jon Rahm is likely to see others follow. It provides real legitimacy to the LIV Tour; a feather in their cap that we can expect them to roll-out frequently. It could result in a further fracturing of the best players in the game. For a somewhat niche sport that lacks global appeal, it means spreading to little butter over too much bread. The resulting reduction in viewership and subsequently revenue would be devastating to the game as we know it.

It is already the case that many arm-chair golf fans tune in only for the majors and that’s about it. The continued fractured tours would only amplify that phenomenon.

The death of the journeyman golfer

Irrespective of what deal (or lack thereof) is struck, one thing does seem certain. The concentration of funding is all pointing towards the elite of the game. That is unsustainable for the sport, resulting in less funding for those who have previously made a comfortable living from golf without setting the world alight. If you are ranked outside the top 100 in the world, the life as a professional golfer will inevitably look quite different.

In many ways, that is a real shame. The beauty of golf is that any player can win on their day. The David and Goliath stories of Rocco Mediate going against the G.O.A.T. will be all that more infrequent. Fields of 140+ players and even having a cut could well be a thing of the past. For many players, making that cut can mean the difference between keeping their tour card or returning to the lower ranks for another attempt. All of that makes for compelling storylines; the types of tales that keep bringing us back to the sport.

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2022 we had 16 outright winners for a return of investment of +24% on the DP World Tour and +26% on the PGA Tour.
2023 we had 15 outright winners for a return of investment of +22% on the DP World Tour and +40% on the PGA Tour.
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PGA

PGA DraftCast for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Joel Schreck & Spencer Aguiar
written by Joel Schreck & Spencer Aguiar

The PGA Tour is back! The WinDaily Sports golf squad of Joel (@DraftMasterFlex) and Spencer (@TeeOffSports) are here with their Butterfield Bermuda Championship preview to talk all things #FantasyGolf and #GolfDFS.

The team are here for the Butterfield Bermuda ChampionshipLIVE draft and to discuss their 2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship picks.

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World Wide Technology Championship Betting Picks & Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
El Cardonal plays host to the World Wide Techonology Cahmpionship for the first time.

The PGA Tour returns this week with a revamped World Wide Technology Championship. Of course, this tournament was previously held at the iconic El Cameleon Mayakoba. LIV Golf halted the streak of tournaments hosted there. LIV secured exclusive use of the course for their schedule, whatever that may eventually end up being. I’ll miss El Cameleon not just for the aesthetics, but also it’s very predictable nature of that event given the strongly weighted statistical profile it always produced. Instead, El Cardonal at Diamante is our host for the first time. This provides a new course for us to dive into and additionally the first appearance of a Tiger Woods design course on the PGA Tour.

I always enjoy seeing where the industry lands once a new golf course is added to the schedule. But it does appear, to my eye, that El Cardonal is somewhat straightforward to read. And that includes taking all World Wide Technology Championship form you previously had, burn the book, and do the complete opposite.

Qatar Masters Recap

A second week in a row where we had multiple selections in contention only for them to fade on the final day. Our two favourite selections, who were also members of our DFS core, Thorbjorn Olesen and Ewen Ferguson finished 9th and 16th respectively. It is always frustrating to have players in contention not finish the job, but the more often you end up having multiple players in position on Sunday is what eventually leads to the great results we have enjoyed this year. Olesen missed a full place payout by one shot and Ferguson by three.

It was somewhat pleasing to see Sami Valimaki secure the victory via playoff over Jorge Campillo, given Campillo featured prominently in our shortlist until his odds were released a tad too short to represent a genuine profitable play. A substantial weather edge did develop which we got spot on. This proved particularly advantageuous for our DFS players who were able to weather stack according to our advice.

Wil Besseling was our only triple figure for the week, put up at a massive 175/1. He did well in finishing 21st. Again, just one shot short of cashing a juicy Top 20 ticket but good enough to lock in a Top 40 payout on him. Here is hoping those we get in contention at this week’s World Wide Technology Championship get the job done on Sunday.

El Cardonal Course Analysis

Firstly, what jumps out from the greenskeeper notes is the average fairway width of 60 yards and greens averaging 8,400 sq feet. Both of those numbers are absurd and represent some of the highest you will see on tour all season. Tiger basically insinuated the course is essentially a resort course for weekend hacks. Eamon Lynch stated the course is “generous”. Basically, this course was never built with a PGA Tour professional in mind. It will be intriguing to see what the subsequent result is.

The course is coastal and, therefore, will play every inch of the some 7,452 yard par 72 shown on the scorecard being at sea level. The entire course is paspalum grass. This sturdy grass is rarely found on tour. Essentially, paspalum is used in hot and humid tropical conditions where the ocean is nearby. The thicker nature and higher salt tolerance make it a must in such conditions. That always has me licking my lips, as we have seen some real paspalum specialists pop up over the years.

In short, I expect a birdie fest this week. The only defense looks to be wind, and the weather forecast is so benign I’m not even providing a paragraph for it this week. You will need to go low and do so often to contend, with my suspicion being you will see a winning score close to -30 than -20. Driving distance should be particularly advantageous, but particularly performance on paspalum is weighted highly for me this week.

YouTube player

World Wide Technology Championship Course Comps

As mentioned, throw Mayakoba out the window. Where that test is narrow and testing, this is likely to be anything but.

My favourite course comps this week are paspalum courses where driving distance and putting have proven to be good predictive factors to success. Included in that list are Grand Reserve GC (Puerto Rico Open), Puntacana Resort & Club (Corales Puntaca Championship), and Vidanata Vallarta (Mexico Open). We have seen time and again how these tropical courses throw out the same players regardless of form, and should be a good guide this week.

The Plantation Course at Kapalua (Sentry Tournament of Champions) should also be a good guide for you this week. Along with being a coastal and tropical track, it features fairways and greens complexes as large as we see here. Additionally, El Cardonal does feature some significant elevation changes and undulations. However, do be cautious when reading form at Plantation. Given the field typically only features 30 or so golfers, a finish of 21st is likely nothing to write home about.

World Wide Technology Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

Emiliano Grillo
2.5pt E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Akshay Bhatia
2.5pt E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Cameron Champ – Your World Wide Techonology Championship Favourite
2.5pt E/W +5500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Do check your odds on Champ, as he opened at 80/1 in places.

Vince Whaley
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Erik Van Rooyen
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +300 (Bet365)

Brandon Wu
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Nate Lashley
1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Kelly Kraft – Your World Wide Techonology Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 40 +190 (Bet365)

Summary

Thank you reading our World Wide Technology Championship preview article. You can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching. Link your premium channel and Discord on the website, as we often have exclusive betting plays within our Discord channels.

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PGA

PGA DraftCast for World Wide Technology Championship

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski, Joel Schreck & Spencer Aguiar
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski, Joel Schreck & Spencer Aguiar

The PGA Tour has made its return! Join the WinDaily Sports golf team, featuring David, Joel, and Spencer, as they dive into their preview of the World Wide Technology Championship, covering all things Fantasy Golf!

Tune in with the squad as they break down the World Wide Technology Championship and share their top picks for the 2023 tournament.

In this episode, the team offers their World Wide Technology Championship preview, complete with their preferred DFS selections, engaging banter, and their renowned WinDaily World Wide Technology Championship First Round Leader choices.

The crew will guide you through their fantasy golf analysis, offering the best plays for DraftKings and FanDuel, alongside a selection of top golf bets and predictions for the World Wide Technology Championship.

Curious about the success of golfers at El Cardonal and the nature of the course itself? Spencer provides a comprehensive course analysis, complete with the essential statistical data required to identify the golfer profile most likely to succeed at El Cardonal.

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Daily Fantasy SportsDP World TourSports BettingPremium

Qatar Masters Picks & Advice: Everything You Need to Know About Doha Golf Club

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Doha Golf Club again plays host to our Qatar Masters picks

With just the one tournament this week, the eyes of the golfing world turn to the Qatar Masters on the DP World Tour. We have had an excellent record in national opens this season. We have correctly included the winner in our selections for the Canadian Open (Taylor 66/1), US Open (Clark 80/1), British Masters (Hillier 80/1), Irish Open (Norrman 45/1), and the Open de Espana (Pavon 80/1). An excellent omen for our Qatar Masters picks!

This tournament has shifted about a bit over the past few years. Originally held as part of the “Desert Swing” in January, it shifted to March, yet now pops up on the calendar at the end of October. It should not make too much difference to the golfer profile we search for this week, but more on this in our weather analysis. It does, however, mean that the tournament takes on added significance as the final event of the regular schedule. This is the last chance for many players to secure their DP World Tour playing rights for 2024. It is also a final opportunity to qualify for the Nedbank Challenge and DP World Tour Championship in the coming month. I’m looking forward to attending the latter in Dubai, so I will make sure to post some pictures in the Win Daily Discord for all our premium members.

ZOZO Championship Recap

We had the 36 hole leader on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour for another week with multiple options in contention. At the ZOZO Championship, Beau Hossler once again put himself in prime position. Our Premium members will know we have been on Hossler for the past three weeks. Notably, his approach play is showing some great improvement. Typically a long driver of the golf ball with excellent putting, addressing the weakest part of his game will see him win on the PGA Tour in the near future. He eventually finished 2nd for a full place payout at equivalent odds of +600.

That was behind an impressive Morikawa, who ended his dry spell in emphatic fashion. I’ll admit I did hold concerns for Morikawa in the high winds forecast in rounds 1 and 2. To some extent, that did come to fruition. Morikawa was back at even par four holes into his 3rd round. He then miraculously played his final 32 holes at 14 under to win by some margin. We also had Cam Davis, who was 8th at the 36 hole mark and eventually just missed out on place money in 12th. Xander was 4th at halfway, but a dreadful weekend saw him tumble well out of contention.

Andalucia Masters Recap

The DP World Tour remained in Spain for the Andalucia Masters. With a new course, some guess work was required. We got it spot on for the weather draw, with a decent weather edge for those avoiding the highest winds. Our key course comp of Al Hamra also proved true, with winner Adrian Meronk having finished 4th and 6th in his two appearances at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship.

Despite the course favouring longer hitters, it was the accurate Spaniard Adrian Otaegui who held the 36 hole lead for us. He was well in contention entering Sunday, including playing his first 48 holes bogey free despite high winds. To his credit, he pushed hard for victory firing at every pin. That is all you can really ask for a golfer in such position, although it did eventually cost us another full place payout finishing 9th.

Our 140/1 selection Adri Arnaus also came out firing in the 3rd round, shooting up the leaderboard to join Otaegui in the lead on Saturday. He faded slightly in the final round, but a 19th place finish was good enough for a partial Top 20 payout and a Top 40 hit. We also cashed a Top 20 bet on Sebastian Soderberg in 19th, again reduced due to dead-heat rules.

Doha Golf Club Course Analysis

Heading into our Qatar Masters picks, Doha Golf Club plays host once again. This course has played host to this tournament since 1998, except in 2020 and 2021 when the event was held at neighbouring Education City Golf Club. Therefore, it is important to ensure you read course history rather than tournament history when analyzing your data.

Course form also proves to be more “sticky” here than other venues. You should give more weighting to prior performance here than on other courses. Basically, if golfers have played well here before they are statistically more likely to do so again. Conversely, do not be surprised if players in form don’t carry that with them to Doha have they struggled here previously.

I’ve previously referred to this course as one of the “faux links” we see on the DP World Tour. The course is designed by Peter Harradine, but it is the work of Kyle Phillips that provides the most guidance. Phillips designed Kingsbarns, one of the regular courses from the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship rotation. He also created other faux links courses Yas Links, in Abu Dhabi, and Bernardus, an inland but exposed links course hosting the KLM Open. The former also has paspalum grass. Paspalum is often found in ocean side and tropical courses, due to it’s sturdy nature and higher salt tolerance.

The key reason for all this is wind. The course is very exposed, with virtually no protection from the winds. Fairways and greens are undulating and well bunkered. Certainly, the course demands a specific skillset you don’t often see for the majority of the season.

Course Comps for our Qatar Masters Picks

For all the aforementioned reasons, our course comps are dominated by links form. The Alfred Dunhill Links and, to some extent, The Open Championship have been good guides here. Likewise, the Kyle Phillips designed Yas Links and Bernardus provide good correlations to Doha Golf Club.

Yet it is another Phillips design which is perhaps the best course comp to guide your Qatar Masters picks. Verdura Golf Club hosted the Sicilian Open on four occasions. However, the correlation is significant.

Alvaro Quiros has won at both courses. Michael Lorenzo-Vera finished 2nd there in his one appearance and has a record in Doha of 30-59-4-10-2. Thorbjorn Olesen won at Verdura (having also won and finished runner-up at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship). He has a 2nd and 3rd at Doha GC. Chris Wood, who was 5th as an amateur at The Open then 3rd the next year, finished runner-up to Olesen at Verdura and then won in Doha the next year. Joakim Lagergren went the other way. He finished runner-up at the Qatar Masters and then won at Verdura the following here.

Education City form shouldn’t be completely thrown away, Campillo having won on that course and holding a good record on this track. Likewise, general form in the Middle East is seen as a positive for our Qatar Masters Picks.

Weather for our Qatar Masters Picks

As mentioned, the tournament has shifted from March to October this year. Conditions should present quite similar. Both March and October are in the shoulder season, with temperatures consistently in the range of 30-35C (high 80s-low 90s for those metrically opposed).

What is also consistent is the wind. All coastal Middle East golf courses experience a sea breeze from early afternoon. As the land heats up, air rises and creates a lower pressure area. This causes the air above the ocean to move onshore. When I was learning to play golf in Dubai, you could almost predict when these winds would hit to the minute. The impact was also severe, and playing longer holes into the high winds became very difficult.

This week, Thursday morning provides for the lowest winds of the two rounds prior to the cut. Friday morning will also present better conditions than the afternoon. However, some moderate winds will start building a couple of hours earlier than Thursday. Although no significant weather edge exists for our Qatar Masters picks, general ability to play in the wind is essential to success here.

Qatar Masters Picks

Suggested Staking

Thorbjorn Olesen
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Ewen Ferguson – Your Qatar Masters Picks Favourite
2.5pt E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Adrian Otaegui
2.5pt E/W +3300 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Sebastian Soderberg
2pt E/W +6000 (William Hill with 8 palces 1/5 odds)

Jeff Winther
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +350 (TAB)

Michael Lorenzo-Vera
1pt E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Matthew Jordan – Your Qatar Masters Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +335 (Unibet)

Will Besseling
0.5pt E/W +17500 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +650 (TAB)
And
2pt Top 40 +240 (TAB)

Summary

Thank you reading our Qatar Masters picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching. Make sure you are linked in to your premium channel, as we often have exclusive betting plays within the Discord channels.

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Sports BettingPGAPremium

ZOZO Championship Picks: Everything You Need To Know About Narashino CC

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Narashino Country Club plays host to our ZOZO Championship Picks

ANOTHER ONE. Another week and yet another winner from the pages of DeepDiveGolf! Mathieu Pavon completed a relatively stress free wire-to-wire victory paying a juicy 80/1. In a quirky stat, we’ve had a ridiculous run of winners at national opens. We’ve successfully picked the winner at the Canadian Open (Nick Taylor 66/1), US Open (Wyndham Clark 80/1), Irish Open (Vincent Norrman 45/1), and now Mathieu Pavon at 80/1 for the Open de Espana. You could convince me to add Daniel Hillier winning the British Masters at 80/1 to the list. And, although this is not a national open (the Japan Open Golf Championship was actually last week), we are in fine form for our ZOZO Championship picks.

I feel even more aggrieved now that we tipped Ryo Hisatsune in 3 out of the 4 tournaments before he won the Open de France at 100/1. If you’ve followed our suggested staking in 2023 using $10 per unit, then you are over $9,000 in profit.

The first many will notice about Narashino Country Club is that there are two greens on every hole. This is common in Japan and comes with many benefits. Firstly, having two greens allows one to be restored or undergo aeration whilst the other is played. Secondly, it allows variety for course members and regulars. Finally, in a country like Japan which has extremely hot and humid summers then snow in winter, it would be used by having different grass types on each green for the seasons.

https://x.com/PGATOUR/status/1187072948152061952?s=20

Narashino Country Club Course Analysis

Fortunately for analysis this week, the course will mostly use just one of the greens. Any shots that end on the other green will be eligible for free relief. However, do note we have seen them previously alternate between the greens on a few select holes.

The ZOZO Championship and Narashino CC makes for a tricky format and course to handicap. The usual strokes gained data are not recorded without trackman travelling to Japan. A reduced field and no cut also adds a wrinkle to the format for our ZOZO Championship picks. Basically, with all golfers playing 4 rounds the cream tends to eventually rise to the top. Analysis of previous leaderboards here and from the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, good drive percentage should be a useful stat this week. It doesn’t necessarily matter if you are long off the tee or straight, just that you do one. If you can have both, that is certainly a bonus but reduces the pool largely to the elite.

Another key to our guidance this week is approach from 150-200 yards. Golfers will see 1.5-2 strokes more within this bracket each round, depending on driving distance. This means roughly 60% of approach will fall within this yardage. Looking through prior leaderboards, players who have played well here are also high in the rankings within this yardage.

Tree-lined fairways are carpeted with zoysiagrass. This unique grass is polarizing and seen rarely on the PGA Tour. Some golfers have remarked they like that this sturdy grass acts like your balls is teed up. Others golfers have lamented that the grass can produce flyers.

Finally, a solid short game is imperative. With a winning score likely to end in the -15 to -18 range again, key up and downs are key to maintaining momentum to compile a score.

Course Comps for our ZOZO Championship Picks

Last year’s winner, Keegan Bradley, provides a guide to course comps for our ZOZO Championship picks. Prior to his victory, he had also recorded a 7th and 13th in his three starts. TPC River Highlands, where he also won the Travelers Championship, has formlines as well as using similar bentgrass greens. Brendan Steele was runner up here on his first look and has 9 Top 25s at TPC River Highlands from 12 starts.

Bradley is also a winner at Firestone Country Club (former host of the Bridgestone Invitiational). Tiger Woods holds a ridiculous record there, and won on his sole start here in 2019 for perhaps his last PGA Tour victory. I dislike using Tiger as a guide, as he simply won almost everywhere he played. But 2019 Tiger was quite a different proposition, so it does seem relevant he won on first look here.

I also generally dislike using Augusta as a comp, as it obviously attracts the best field in golf. However, treelined fairways and undulations visually provide a comparison. Xander Schauffele won the Olympics gold medal in Tokyo 2020 and has finished in the top 10 at The Masters in 50% of his starts.

Xander is also a winner at The Old White TPC (former host of the Greenbrier Classic). Sebastian Munoz provides further links, finishing 4th at Narashino Country Club and a record of 3rd and 7th at The Old White TPC.

Finally, other zoysia fairway courses of TPC Southwind and TPC Craig Ranch can be used for approach play on this unique grass type.

Weather Forecast for our ZOZO Championship Picks

Weather forecast for our ZOZO Championship Picks

Weather could well be a factor across the first two days for our ZOZO Championship picks. Thursday morning has a small chance of fog delays and will be cold. Winds will pick up throughout the day, with gusts around 20mph from early afternoon. However, prevailing winds will remain relatively moderate.

Friday morning will again experience lower winds, before building substantially later in the afternoon. Winds could reach as high as 25mph prevailing with gusts above 40mph.

Although there are condensed tee times with the reduced field, there remains potential for a weather edge there. Those going off earliest on Friday morning should experience an advantage for at least 9 holes. If any fog delays do occur or there is a substantial temperature difference on Thursday, we could potentially see the edge move across both the first two rounds. I certainly don’t see the edge being sufficient to completely rule out a player from your player pool. However, it should play a factor in your decisions this week. Especially, in situations when deciding between two similar players for DFS purposes.

ZOZO Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

Xander Schauffele – Your ZOZO Championship Picks Favourite
5pt E/W +800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Cam Davis
4pt E/W +2000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Beau Hossler
2pt E/W +4000 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)

Tom Hoge – Your ZOZO Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +200 (Unibet)

Michael Kim
0.5pt E/W +10000 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +240 (William Hill)

Summary

Thank you reading our ZOZO Championship picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching. Make sure you are linked in to your premium channel, as we often have exclusive betting plays within the Discord channels.

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PGA

PGA DraftCast for the ZOZO Championship

Sia, DeepDiveGolf - David BieleskiJoel Schreck & Spencer Aguiar
written by Sia, DeepDiveGolf - David BieleskiJoel Schreck & Spencer Aguiar

The OG squad of Sia (@SiaNejad) David (@deepdivegolf), Joel (@DraftMasterFlex) and Spencer (@TeeOffSports) are here with their ZOZO Championship preview to talk all things #FantasyGolf and #GolfDFS. The team are here for the ZOZO Championship LIVE draft and their 2023 ZOZO Championship picks.

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PGASports BettingPremium

Shriners Children’s Open Picks: Everything You Need to Know About TPC Summerlin

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
TPC Summerlin plays host to the Shriners Children's Open picks

Time flies when you’re having fun (or getting old). It’s 12 months since I was meeting up with our fellow WinDaily Sports superstar and fellow golf data nerd Spencer Aguiar (aka @TeeOffSports). We had an awesome time exploring TPC Summerlin and watching our Shriners Children’s Open picks during the first round in 2022. Work and child commitments meant I needed to fly back to New Zealand after a whistle stop 16 hours in Vegas.

But before leaving, we did get to witness one of the greatest shots of the year from Sungjae Im. We were standing by the green waiting for the group to play up and could not even see Im down in the waste area. He managed to produce the spectacular:

YouTube player

The Week Just Been

It was a week of close calls for us on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour last week. At the Sanderson Farms Championship, our 200/1 selection Zecheng Dou was close to another first round leader. He bogeyed the last to miss out on the places at equivalent odds of +4000. We did however cash Top 20 and Top 40 bets on him at +500 and +200. We also cash a Top 40 on Vince Whaley at +170 and a Top 20 for Erik Van Rooyen +233 (reduced under dead-heat rules).

Over in Europe, sadly the Alfred Dunhill Links was heavily affected by adverse weather conditions. Heavy flooding saw two days abandoned and the tournament reduced to 54 holes with all professionals playing the three rounds. Matthew Southgate surged into the lead, only to be caught down the stretch by Matthew Fitzpatrick. His 2nd place finish cashes a full place at +1320 and our Top 20 at +260. Another huge priced outside Jeff Winther was our next near miss. Selected at 250/1, he finished just one shot outside the a place payout at +5000 in 10th. We cash a Top 20 at +750 and a Top 40 at +320.

All up, we finish the week with a small profit and a tinge of what could have been.

TPC Summerlin Course Analysis

Host for our Shriners Children’s Open picks is TPC Summerlin, an oasis in the desert of Las Vegas. The course plays as a par 71 at 7,255 yards. I’ve seen a lot of rhetoric, as we often do, that driving distance is an advantage here. Yes, driving distance is always an advantage at any golf course. Statistically, driving distance doesn’t have a massive predictive factor on final result here. We have seen both long drivers and accurate drivers find success here. Part of this is as a result of the course playing shorter than it’s yardage due to the high altitude and thinner air.

Approach does see an uptick for shots under 150 yards, with an additional two approach shots within this range. This is a combination of no truly drivable par 4 and of the 3 par 5s one is a long 606 yards and another features a gnarly second shot over water if going for it.

Primarily we see a significant uptick in SG: Putting and, secondly, SG: Around-The-Green. This correlates with an increase in bogey avoidance and birdie % here. It is no surprise that Cantlay has found such success on this course, having been in the top 5 on the PGA Tour for birdie percentage for the last couple of years.

Course Comps for our Shriners Children’s Open Picks

The somewhat generic nature of TPC Summerlin is also reflected in the course comps this week. No one course stands out as a common thread between the course analysis and performance here. Where we do see correlation is on the leaderboards on other desert courses.

The American Express is played in the desert of neighbouring California. This has the added benefit of seeing an uptick in approach from under 150 yards and a heavy emphasis on putting performance. It often turns into a birdie fest and, as Rahm famously said, “a f*cking putting contest.”

For similar reasons, TPC San Antonio and the Valero Texas Open shows some correlation to TPC Summerlin leaderboards. Another desert course where the driver is somewhat neautralized, but with a heavy emphasis on the short game particularly around the green.

Finally, don’t discount form from the DP World Tour at the Dubai Desert Classic. The tournament always attracts one of the strongest fields on the DP to -World Tour. It is a Rolex Series event and they also pay generous appearance fees. Scores to win there typically range from -18 to -25.

Weather for our Shriners Children’s Open Picks

There appears to be little weather edge to take advantage of this week. Thursday should see winds decrease as the day goes on. However, this will be offset somewhat by the greens firming up and getting faster in the Nevada sun. Friday morning will see winds marginally lower than in the afternoon.

Overall, I would give a small weighting on players starting Thursday PM/Friday AM for the first two rounds. The edge is not substantial. Therefore, I would recommend only building a few stacks playing across those tee-times but certainly wouldn’t remove players from my player pool exclusively due to the weather forecast.

Shriners Children’s Open Picks

Suggested Staking

Adam Schenk – Your Shriners Children’s Open Picks Favourite
3pt E/W +3300 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Davis Thompson
2.5pt E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Lucas Herbert
2pt E/W +4500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Beau Hossler
2pt E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +300

Chesson Hadley – Your Shriners Children’s Open Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +375

Erik Van Rooyen
1.5pt E/W +15000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +500 (Bet365)
And
4pt Top 40 +175 (Bet365)

Summary

Thank you reading our Shriners Children’s Open picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching. Make sure you are linked in to your premium channel, as we often have exclusive betting plays within the Discord channels.

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