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PGA

Safeway Open: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

Safeway Open: Initial Picks

The new season is upon us (believe it or not) and we start things off in Napa at the Safeway Open. We finally have a normal cut event and a field that isn’t loaded at the top. The Win Daily team will be bringing you plenty of picks via articles and Discord over the next 48 hours, and as usual, we will be bringing you the Livestream and podcast Tuesday night at 8:30 (tonight!). Let’s get to the Safeway Open: Initial Picks.

Emiliano Grillo (9700) – The putter can be a big problem for Grillo and these aren’t the easiest greens to putt on but I do like Grillo’s track record on this course and I love his ball striking.  I’m not overweight on Grillo but he’ll be in some lineups.  Grillo finished 1st here in 2016. 

Cameron Davis (8900) – If his last handful of tournaments are any indication, we may have a rising star on our hands with Cam Davis.  He has been great OTT, APP and PUTT with ARG being the only metric that requires some improvement.  Riding a hot hand isn’t a bad place to be.

Sam Burns (8700) – Looking at his metrics on the year the only thing that jumps out is his OTT numbers but lately he’s been great on APP as well.  Burns has had some missed cuts lately but the metrics tell a different story and I expect him to do well at Safeway.

Henrik Norlander (8500) – The shine is off Norlander as he’s coming off a missed cut at the Northern Trust and a paltry 59th at the Wyndham, but I like grabbing guys when their stock is relatively low.  Another guy that picks up a ton of strokes ball striking but is losing strokes with the short game.  Not a cash game play but I’ll fire in GPP’s.

Tyler Duncan (8400) – This guy remains under the radar unless you are a Win Daily subscriber.  Our team, particularly @sicilykid has been all over this guy in DFS and it has paid off.  He has been making cuts and finishing strong and his price is finally reflecting it.  Price may be too rich for some, but I’ll have shares.  Over his last 13 tournaments he’s lost strokes Ball Striking in only one of them.

Luke List (7400) – Your classic low floor but high upside play.  List’s ball striking has been excellent (other than at The Northern Trust) but the putter has been failing him.  He’s made 3 out of 4 cuts here (including a 4th place finish in 2019) but last year he had a missed cut.  An upside play I’m willing to take in GPP’s.

Adam Schenk (6900) – You’ll notice some of my previous secret weapon plays have made my write-up and here is one of them.  Schenk is typically good OTT and on APP but can get shaky ARG and PUTT.  Even in the cases where he’s faulty with the short game he usually manages to make the cut with impressive ball striking.  Good value here at this price.

Secret Weapon (sub 7k/less than 5% ownership) – See you in Discord

Don’t forget the Livestream tonight at 8:30 with Michael Rasile, Joel Schrek and Sia Nejad.

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PGA

2020 FedEx PGA Championship Ownership

Steven Polardi
written by Steven Polardi

2020 FedEx PGA Championship Ownership

Hello DFS golf fans and aficionados. This week is the 2020 FedEx PGA Championship, with the top DK prize of 500 K probably being split by 5000 people. This weeks contest is much more about game theory than projections because of the staggered starting points, but projections can help you in determining how many or how few people you want to split the big money with. To give you an example, last years 400 K with a 5.00 entry fee had almost 91% duplication. Guys I can’t stress how important it is to leave some money, a little, or a lot, on the table. If you use the entire 50 K salary, it’s guaranteed that you will duplicate other entries. Let’s take a look at the ownership projections, and don’t be surprised at the major, and I do mean major heavy chalk.

The top ownership % goes to Xander Schauffele, at a whopping 37% and climbing. Billie Horschel is next at 35% followed by Web Simpson at 32.6%.
Jon Rahm is next at 32% Justin Thomas follows at 27%. Daniel Berger is 26%, next is Tony Finau at 25.9%, Rory McILroy is 25%, next is Victor Hovland at 24.5%, then Hideki Matsuyama at 23.8%. Kevin Kisner is 21.7%, Joaquin Niemann is 21%, Tyrrell Hatton is 20.8%, Abraham Ancer is 19.8%, Ryan Palmer is 18.9%, Scottie Scheffler is 17.8%, Harris English is 17.2% Collin Morikawa who just added Patrick “Sharps” Scott to his Christmas Card list is next at 16.3%, DJ is sitting at 16%, Bryson DeChambeau is at 15.9%, Mackenzie Hughes is 15.1%, Lanto Griffin is 14.7% Kevin Na is 13.4%, Sungjae IM is 13.2%, Patrick Reed Is 12.6%, Brendan Todd is 12%, Sebastian Munoz, my pick last week who did very well is coming in at 11.8%. Marc Leishman is 11.7%, Cameron Smith is 11.1%, Cameron Champ is 10.4%

Picks for the Championship

Since DJ is at only 16% ownership, and he starts out at -10 before he walks up to the first tee box, I’ll go with him, reluctantly, but the odds say take him.

The two golfers with the most history are Kevin Kisner and Harris English, both know this course very well being Georgia golfers, although Kisner is almost 22% owned.

Last week my out in Left field play was Sebastian Munoz, he was 6300, ownership was 3.5%, he finished in eighth place. He brought home the value and the money. This week almost all the golfers who are in the 6000 range with the lowest ownership are going to start out ten strokes behind the number one golfer in the world, D.J. Who do I think can come close to beating him ? My pick this week is Kevin Kisner (6800) because he knows this course, is 25th in accuracy, and his metrics are solid. My honorable mention is Abraham Ancer (6100) who was 15th at the FedEx St Jude, and finished 33rd last week at the BMW

Please make sure you read the articles by the Daily Fantasy Sports writers which gives out intel, stats  and metrics to help you build a winning team. We will also be in the Discord channel answering any questions and helping with lineups once the reports go up. SIA will also have his world famous Secret Weapon Play tonight on the Discord channel, those of you who know how great these plays are wouldn’t miss it, so don’t you miss it either !

As always,  I hope to be with you,  in the money !

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PGA

BMW Championship – Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

BMW Championship – Initial Picks

Down to the final 70 players for the FedEx Cup which means two things:  there is no cut and most of the field will be gunning to get into the Top 30 to qualify for the final event.  We will have way more on this tournament from the WinDaily team within the next 24 hours, and of course, we will be bringing you the Livestream tonight (Tuesday night) at 8:30 pm with Michael Rasile and Joel Schrek.  The Livestream will also feature 1st Round Leader bets, outright bets and matchups. Here are our BMW Championship – Initial Picks.

Justin Thomas (10800) – JT checks all the boxes.  Before the restart I dubbed JT the best player in the world and I think he finishes the FedEx Cup on top when it’s all said and done.  Since the restart JT leads the field T2G.  He didn’t have a great tournament with the putter last week, but expect a rebound in that department.

Webb Simpson (10100) – Doesn’t get the respect he deserves and that is absolutely fine with me as I will keep firing.  He’s in great form and coming off a 3rd and a 6th place finish.   I have no issue if you want to start your team in this range.

Scottie Scheffler (9000) – We’ve always known that Scottie can pile up DFS points, but now he is actually contending among the elite tier of golfers.  He has been the best player T2G over the last month.  His price continues to creep upward but he’s still worth the pricetag considering the form he is in.

Tony Finau (8700) – We know Finau can get hot and go low and we also know that he can buckle under pressure.  Therefore, a no cut event would appear to be a good situation for Tony and at this price he doesn’t need to be Top 3 to justify the selection.  I will point out that he is 29th in the FedEx Cup Standings.

Adam Scott (8200) – Very unimpressive 58th place last week, but he can attribute some of the poor days to a lack of play since the restart.  With that said, he’s finally playing two tournaments in a row and he sits at 36th in the FedEx Cup standings.  I think Scott will be particularly dialed into making that Top 30 and I expect a good showing.

Matthew Wolff (8200) – Shot a laughable 77 on Saturday at the Northern Trust but had a nice rebound performance on Sunday with a 67.  Wolff, Morikawa and Hovland are only a handful of players that actually have some recent experience on this course (from their amateur days which were literally just two years ago) and I expect all three of them to play well here again. 

Viktor Hovland (8100) – With only 70 players in the field I’m looking for a golfer that can get hot on any given day and Hovland continues to prove that he can do that.   The reason I have selected only two of the Fab three (I have excluded Morikawa) is simply a product of value and that is exactly what you’re getting with Hovland.

Ryan Palmer (7600) – Yes he will have the occasional blow up rounds but he has been very good since the restart, including four made cuts in a row with two Top 10’s in that span.  It’s interesting to note that Abraham Ancer (7700) has played the same exact last four tournaments as Ryan Palmer (Northern Trust, PGA, WGC and Memorial) and Ancer’s best finish during that span is 15th and his other three finishes were MC, 43rd and 58th). 

Talor Gooch (6600) – I was on the Gooch last week and it paid off with an 18th place finish.  He’s been Top 25 in his last two and appears to be on the rise.  Definitely value at this price.

Secret Weapon (sub 7k/less than 5%) – At some point I’m going to be wrong on the SW pick, but it’s been two months and it hasn’t happened yet.  See you in Discord for the next installment.

Thrive Fantasy

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Thrive Fantasy! As I said I like Tony Finau and you can grab the UNDER on his total PARs and BOGs Prop. You can also take advantage of Tiger needing to do well, and Bryson shooting under a 67! Check them out and use promo code “windaily” when you sign up for some extra bonuses. Learn how to play here on our quick over.

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The Northern Trust: Sunday Showdown

Joel Schreck
written by Joel Schreck

The Northern Trust: Sunday Showdown

The first three days of this tournament have been entertaining to say the least. Scottie Scheffler and Dustin Johnson went off on Friday going -12 and -11 respectively and I am expecting scores to remain low on Sunday (but probably not that low).

So how does the low scoring this week affect the Sunday Showdown slate? Typically, you want to favor the top of the leaderboard because you get bonus points for finishing position in the Sunday Showdown slates. However, with the ability for guys to go -8 and -9 I am prioritizing the top of the leaderboard a bit less this week for two reason,

1) You will probably need 6 golfers who go -6 or better and on this course and those -6’s/-7’s will likely come from 10-15 golfers. My guess would be a -3 with the 5th place bonus would not be enough for the winning lineup on Sunday.

2) It will be contrarian as ownership for golfers at the top of the leaderboard for Sunday’s Showdown slate is always high.

On Saturday we saw 11 golfers shoot -5 or better and 5 golfers shoot -6 or better (at the time of writing this article, DJ is still on the 16th hole so that might change).

The Northern Trust: Sunday Showdown Targets

Dustin Johnson ($10,500): Dustin has not only been striking the ball well but we have seen some of his best putting performances over the last few weeks. In addition to that he has shown up on Sunday’s averaging a score of 67.5 over the past 4 Sunday’s in which he has teed it up.

Rory Mcilroy ($10,000): On Saturday Rory was the worst player in the field ARG and he was terrible with his putter. However, he continues to strike the ball well, gaining 1.80 strokes on APP. Rory is just too good at golf to not get his short game corrected and I will be on him when that happens. Hopefully sooner than later!

Hideki Matsuyama ($8,400): Matsuyama shot -6 on Saturday and is striking the ball really well this week. I can see Hideki making a move up the leaderboard for a top 10 finish on Sunday.

Tyrell Hatton ($8,000): Tyrrell led the field on Saturday with a -8. He putted well but more impressively he led the field in SG APP +4.30. Tyrell is one of the best putters on tour so the putting is expected but he continues to strike the bell this well he can definately go -7 or -8 again on Sunday.

Justin Rose ($7,700): Rose has a solid course history here but he also ranks 4th in SG APP (+1.92) through the first three days of the tournament. If he sinks a few putts on Sunday he will be a sneaky non-leaderboard play that will help you cash in the Sunday Showdown.

Cameron Smith ($6,900): Similar to Rose, Smith also has a solid course history here and he ranks 2nd for week thus far in SG APP +2.05. Cameron will be one of my favorite plays on Sunday in this price range.

Matt Kuchar ($6,800): Kuchar is not someone who I typically play but he shot -5 on Saturday gaining 3.81 strokes on APP. At this price, it will be hard to not have some shares of Matt on Sunday.

If you have any questions, I will be on discord later tonight. Make sure to check out Win Daily Sports for more Golf content this week!

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PGAPremium

The Northern Trust Final Ownership

Adam Strangis
written by Adam Strangis

The Northern Trust Final Ownership

This week the tour travels to Boston for the Northern Trust and the first of a 3 week playoff to go from 125 golfers to 70 to 30 and then one, the champion FedEx Player of the year. That means the 55 players above that 70 line will be battling for position to continue, and hopefully make it to East Lake for the Championship. Here is the Northern Trust Final Ownership for the DraftKings Milly Maker.

Last week the half a milly maker had a combined ownership average of 15%, with two golfers just over the 10% owned line as the formula came in again.

There have been some questions as to roster one or two players on your 6 man team with a combined ownership of around 10%. Roster construction is vitally important, and you can have a perfectly rostered team and if you don’t have two players that are approximately 10% owned combined, you won’t win the 500 K or the million, ever. It has never happened, although they say there’s a first time for everything, in the meantime I’ll continue to roster two players at around 10% ownership simply because I’m in it to win it. Let’s get to the ownership numbers for this week:

Brooks Koepka has withdrawn from the tourney, at the time they announced it, around 1100 am, he was at a decent 11% + ownership, as of right now he still has 7% ownership, it’s fine with us if he stays at that number too.

It Is a dead heat between John Rahm at 19.7% and Jason Day at 19% as of this report, it looks like Rahm may be the king of the chalk this week. Tony Finau is next at 17.7% followed by Bryson DeChambeau at 17%+ (+ is rising) and Patrick Reed at 16.8%. Daniel Berger, at 16% ownership and Xander Schauffele finishes this  group at 16%.

Patrick Cantlay starts us off at 15.2% and Adam Scott joins him at the same number. Hedeki Matsuyama is 14.6%,  Justin Thomas is 14% along with Matthew Wolff and Tyrrell Hatton. Patrick “Sharps” Scott has nominated his favorite golfer to be Time magazines Man of the Year, here’s hoping Collin Morikawa, at 13.5%, replaces Covid on the front cover. Abraham Ancer follows at 13.5%, and Gary Woodland comes in at 13.3% Rory McILroy is 12.7% owned, Webb Simpson is 12.4%, Sungjae IM is 12.2%, Billy Horschel, who I like this week is 12.1%, and Harris English sits at 12%. Tiger is at 11.6%, Scottie Scheffler is 11.3%, Paul Casey is 10.6%, Rickie Fowler is 10.4%. Victor Hovland is 10.2% and Russell Henley rounds out this group at 10%.

Matthew Fitzpatrick is 9.4%, D.J. is 8.9%,  Tommy Fleetwood is 8.3%, Cameron Champ is 7.8%, Si Woo Kim and Doc Redman are 7.6%. Kevin Kisner is 7.4%, Louis Oosthuizen is 7.3%,  Brooks Koepka (WITHDREW) is at 7%, Kevin Na and Justin Rose are 6.9%, B. An is 6.5%, Jordan Spieth is 6.4%, Shane Lowry is 6%, Harold Varner lll closes out these golfers at 5.3%

Golfers at 5% Ownership or less :

Phil Mickelson is 4.4%, Marc Leishman is 4.1%, Emiliano Grillo is 4% Ryan Palmer is 3.7%, Dylan Frittelli  is 3.6%, Matt Kuchar is 3.5%, Jason Kokrak is 3.4%, Brendan Todd is 3.3%, Sam Burns is 3.1%, Joel Dahmen is 2.5% along with Ryan Moore, Corey Conners is 2.4%, Denny McCarthy is 2.3%, Mark Hubbard is 2.1% along with Brendan Steele, Keegan Bradley, Adam Hadwin and Bud Cauley.

Golfers at 2% Ownership or less:

Adam Schenk is 1.9% along with Chez Reavie, Alex Noren is 1.8%, Bubba Watson is 1.7%, Tom Lewis is 1.6% along with Lucas Glover, Patrick Rodgers is 1.4%, Adam Long is 1.3%, Cameron Smith is 1.1% along with Luke List, Brian Harmon, Brandt Snedeker, Max Homa and Ian Poulter.

All other golfers are under 1%, including Cameron Tringale, at .01%.

The Northern Trust Picks:

Last week my out in left field play was Adam Long, it was also Sia’s Secret Weapon, and guys he is red hot on those Weapons plays, he offers a 6 K golfer under 5% ownership who so far has been money going on 7 weeks now, you could make more off his picks than you could a 2 month treasury bond, and have way more fun ! The  Sia’s Secret Weapon play this week is …………..someone he will announce at 8 EST on Discord !!. Make sure you get him rostered !!

My out in left field pick this week is Denny McCarthy (6700), (2% owned), his metrics fit this course and he has been trending up for the past three weeks. Last weeks Honorable Mention play was Matthias Schwab, he was owned by 4.8% of the field and finished -7, good for 42nd and brought value based on salary.
This weeks honorable mention is Tom Lewis,(7K) less than 2% owned, more risk means more reward, I think he makes the cut in Beantown this week bringing value.

Please feel free to ask me any questions concerning ownership or team construction on the Discord Channel once this report is published on Win Daily Sports. The writers and I have been hard at it since Jim Herman sunk the putt at Wyndham to get you the best information to put money in your pocket for the DraftKings Half a Milly Maker Beantown Battle. Please review all the writers articles, there is a ton of good solid intel to hopefully help you build a money maker, and make sure you catch Michael and Sia’s live stream on Tuesday’s nights at 830, along with their special guest Joel, AKA Grand Master Flex, who is rumored to be loaning DraftKings money (at a friendly rate) since he has taken all of theirs this past month by taking down tourney after tourney. You do not want to miss the intel on the live stream, and they will have a very special guest announcement coming soon.

As always I hope to be with you, in the money.

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PGA

The Northern Trust: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

The Northern Trust: Initial Picks

Welcome to round one of the FedEx Cup Playoffs where we will have a field of 125. With fewer in the field it will be very important to get all your picks through the cut, and with that in mind, I’ll likely be going for a more balanced approach this week (which will still allow you to grab a golfer from the elite price range). Tune into tonight’s Livestream at 8:30 for more on the Northern Trust (and subscribe to the Win Daily Podcast if you haven’t already). Be on the lookout for more PGA DFS content over at Win Daily Sports! Let’s get to The Northern Trust: Initial Picks. Note all prices for DraftKings.

Bryson DeChambeau (11100) – Bryson’s length will benefit him here and he won on this track in 2018. Also happens to be in good form with a 4th place finish at the PGA Championship.  Of all of the guys in the elite price range, this one is my favorite. 

Jason Day (9300) – Appears to be healthy and has been locking in Top 10 finishes in his last four tournaments, including a 4th place at the PGA Championship.  He has gained strokes APP for five tournaments in a row.  He was also 20th on this track in 2018 and finished 6th, 4th and 1st in the three years prior to 2018.

Daniel Berger (8900) – This price range has talent everywhere but I’m going to lean on a guy who I think has had some of the best form this entire year.  He gains strokes in every category and since the restart he is averaging over two strokes gained per round.  He also has a solid track record on this course.

Adam Scott (8400) – Surprised me with a 22nd  at the PGA Championship after an extremely long layoff (was his first action since the restart).  His track record on this course is impeccable.  Even for not having played much golf since the restart, Scott is ranked 36th in the FedEx Cup Standings and therefore well within striking distance of the top spot.

Billy Horschel (7900) – Probably should have won last week and finished 3rd on this track in 2018.  Perhaps the biggest thing going for Horschel is that his game consistently ramps up around playoff time.  He seemed loose and yet locked in last week.  I’ll see if I can catch him again in great form this week.

Matthew Wolff (7800) – He’s striking the ball too well to ignore at this price.  This guy could may have won the PGA Championship if he were able to sink a few 6 foot putts down the stretch.  Not afraid to hang with the big boys down the stretch on Sundays.

Ryan Palmer (7300) – This range puts us squarely in hit or miss territory and that’s exactly what you are getting with Palmer.  He’s been very good OTT and APP and if that stays the course then it will only require a decent putter for him to pay off his pricetag in a big way.  Be careful with being overweight on Palmer as when it goes bad, it usually goes very bad, but the upside is there.

Emiliano Grillo (7000) – Really want to do my best this week to not sink down into this range, but if I’m going to do it, I’m going to go with a great ball striker who can’t seem to figure out the putter (a hot putter can happen to anyone).  Grillo is in good form as of late and his last three at TPC Boston have all resulted in made cuts and that includes a 2nd place in 2016.

Talor Gooch (6500) – Ball striking has been good lately and since the restart he’s either good for a missed cut or a Top 25 finish.  If he obtains the latter he pays off his pricetag easily.  Hoping to ride the good form from last week.

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PGAPremium

Wyndham Championship: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

Wyndham Championship: Initial Picks

We’ve got a much easier layout this week relative to the PGA Championship and we will be seeing a lot of birdies.  The course isn’t particularly long and our focus will revert back to APP this week as this is definitely a second shot golf course (please review The Range for a closer look on course dynamics).  Please tune into Tuesday night’s Livestream at 8:30 for more on these picks and the picks of Joel Schrek, who is quickly becoming one of the best PGA DFS players in the industry.  And finally, make sure you are constantly refreshing your page at windailysports.com as we have plenty of articles coming from our entire team, but here are out Wyndham Championship: Initial Picks. All pricing is for DraftKings.

Brooks Koepka (11400) – It’s curious that Brooks is even making the trip to this event.  However, knowing that Brooks definitely considers himself one of the best in the world and that he is 92nd in FedEx Cup standings, he actually needs the points boost.  We remember what we last witnessed with Brooks, which was an awful Sunday, but overall at the PGA he gained almost six strokes APP and that will be key at the Wyndham. 

Webb Simpson (11200) – Webb has finished 2nd, 2nd and 3rd the last three years at this event and he has a daughter named after the event itself.  Convinced?  He’s also in very good form with great APP and PUTT metrics, both of which will prove to be very valuable on this track.  Yes he will be super chalk but he’s a lock button in cash games and you’ll want to have some shares in GPPs. 

Justin Rose (9900) – I’m not normally a Rose guy, but he seemed to be back into form last week and he gained a ton of strokes on APP and PUTT at the PGA.  Normally I’d consider fading a guy who gained 7 full strokes putting the week prior, but his most APP metrics (4 SG at PGA) combined with the possibility of a hot putter spell a potentially big week for Rose.   Add to that he’s not comfortably within the Top 125 of the FedEx standings (currently at 103) and I think he has plenty to play for.

Si Woo Kim (8600) – Making seven cuts in a row isn’t anything to celebrate for a guy in this price range but he is coming off a 13th place at the PGA and finished 1st here in 2016 and 5th last year.  Further, his ball striking has been great lately.  His putter can go hot and cold but it feels like he’s comfortable here so I have no hesitation including him in a handful of lineups.  Si Woo is 121st in the FedEx Cup standings so if you’re a believer in that narrative, things set up nicely this week.

Ryan Moore (8100) – He’s been very good on APP as of late and has a very good track record at the Wyndham.  I think Moore is a bit underpriced here.  One of his biggest issues this year has been an inconsistent putter, but I’m always willing to gamble on that if the other important SG metrics are in great shape.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (7700) – I almost left this guy off my Initial Picks because I didn’t feel like typing out his name, but for the sake of a proper write-up, I added him to the list.  CBez (there we go) has been very good lately with a 22nd at the Memorial and a 20th at the WGC Fed-Ex St. Jude (a comparable course to Wyndham).  Even better his main weakness is OTT and that shouldn’t be a big factor here.

Tom Lewis (7600) – Coming off a bad week at the PGA sets up nicely for a ownership leverage play at Wyndham.  As mentionned above, his week’s track is comparable to the WGC Fed-Ex St. Jude where Lewis finished an astounding 2nd place.  Add to that Lewis is teetering at 120th in the FedEx Cup Standings and I think he’s ripe for a bounce back.

Henrik Norlander (7300) – A forgotten commodity as he’s been absent the last few tournaments, but he’s made five cuts in a row including a 6th at The Memorial and a 12th at the Rocket Mortgage.  Norlander’s ball striking has been great over that stretch, particularly in the area of APP.  His putter can be erratic but over the last three tournaments he’s gained plenty of strokes with the short stick. 

Luke List (7200) – Ball striking has been excellent lately and main issue with List is his putter (He lost a full 7 strokes putting last week). Still, at this price and with great APP numbers I’m willing to take a chance on a guy who appears to be on the rise. He’s made 3 cuts in a row and is currently 112th in the FedEx Cup standings.

Brice Garnett (6700) – ball striking has been great since the re-start.  Like many of the guys above he is prone to some bad putting but his last three at the Wyndham have resulted in 6th, 20th and 20th so he’s clearly comfortable here.  Solid value in this punt range.

Secret Weapon (sub 7k/less than 5% owned) – get into Discord Wednesday for the secret weapon.  Rate of return of secret weapon has been incredible.  Feels like it’s due to crash and burn this week . . . or is it? 

Again, stay tuned for the Livestream TONIGHT at 8:30 for much more on these picks and the picks of Joel Schrek. And if you’re not already subscribed to the Win Daily podcast, lock that into your rotation. See everyone tonight!

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PGA Championship Ownership Projections

DFSGhost
written by DFSGhost

PGA Championship Ownership Projections

It’s time for the first major of the year in this pandemic era, and we have the ownership projections, crucial for picking the right players to hit that seven figure prize, as well as favorite picks to assist you with your lineup construction. Here is a look at the PGA Championship Ownership Projections.

Last week there was no DraftKings Milly Maker, in the 500 K contest the winning ownership came in at 8%.  There are many pundits saying with this fields strength and soft soft pricing that you should only need one golfer at the 5% or under ownership plateau to take the big prize money, I’m going to disagree and suggest you will still need two low owned golfers to get all those zeros behind your prize number. Let’s take a look at The PGA Championship at Harding Park’s ownership numbers.

Earlier today Xander Schauffele was leading the ownership % race, and all of a sudden D.J. and  Cantlay came roaring by, D.J. is the leading owned player at 21%, followed by Patrick Cantlay at 20.6% and Patrick “Sharps” Scott’s new choice for president in 2024, Colin Morikawa, who slid into third at 20.4%. Xander is next at 20%, please note choosing these players at 20%+ ownership means you must have them go top 5 or win to create enough value to win large GPPs, I do think Xander and Collin have a shot to do that.

Justin Thomas is next at 19%, Daniel Berger is at18%, Tommy Fleetwood is 17.5%, Abraham Ancer is 16.9%, Rory McILroy is 16.8%,  Jon Rahm is 16%,  Tony Finau is 15.7%,  Tyrrell Hatton is 15.6% owned.

Coming in at 15% ownership are Brooks Koepka, Webb Simpson, Matthew Fitzpatrick, and Jason Day. Hideki Matsuyama is 14.4%, Gary Woodland is 14.2%, Patrick Reed is 13%, Bryson DeChambeau is 12.7%, and falling to 11% is Rickie Fowler. Tiger is next at 10.8%, Victor Hovland is 10.5%, and Jordan Spieth is 10.4% owned. Scottie Scheffler is at 9.3%, Chez Reavie is 8.9%, Shane Lowry is 8.5%, and Sergio Garcia is 8% owned. Harris English comes in at 7%, Louis Oosthuizen is 6.7%, Justin Rose and Billy Horschel are at 6.6%, Marc Leishman is 6.5%, Bubba Watson is 6.2% along with Henrik Stenson. Ryan Palmer and Joaquin Niemann are 5.9% owned, Matt Kuchar is 5.4% and  Corey Conners is 5.2%

The following golfers come in at 5% or below:

Cameron. Champ is 4.85%, Sungjae IM is 4.3% along with Paul Casey and Matthias Schwab. Matthew Wolf is 4% owned, Kevin Kisner is 3.9%, Lucas Glover is 3.6%, Phil Mickelson and and Joel Dahmen are at 3.5%, Tom Lewis is 3.3%, Christiaan Bezuidenhout is 3.1%: Brendan Steele and Richy Werenski are 2.8%, Matt Wallace and Kevin Na are 2.6%, Kevin Streelman is 2.4%, Brendan Todd is 2.3%, Nick Taylor is 2.1%.

The next group of golfers comes in under 2% ownership:

B. An, who contended all last week until Sunday comes in at 1.8% owned, along with Adam Hadwin, Emiliano Grillo and Ian Poulter. Michael Thompson is 1.6% owned, Doc Redman is 1.5% owned along with Mackenzie Hughes, Jim Furyk, Charl Schwartzel, Russel Henley and Dylan Frittelli. Max Homa has company at 1.2% that includes Harold Varner lll, Danny Willett, Luke List, Sebastian Munoz, Keegan Bradley, Taylor Gooch, Graeme McDowell, Jason Dufner, Wyndham Clark, TylerDuncan, and Brian Stuard.

Golfers under 1% ownership include:
Sung Kang, Denny McCarthy, Danny Lee, Joost Luiten, Bud Cauley, Si Woo Kim, Adam Long, Cameron Tringale, Rory Sabbatini, Zach Johnson, Brian Harmon, J.T. Poston, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Robert Macintyre, Cameron Smith, Bernd Wiesberger , Martin Kaymer, Mike Lorenzo Vera, Hao Tong Li, Vaughn Taylor, Troy Merritt, Matt Jones, Carlos Ortiz, Keith Mitchell, Tom Hoge, Kurt Kitayama, Mark Hubbard, Lucas Herbert, Andrew Landry, Steve Stricker, and Victor Perez, along with Lanto Griffin and of course, Jazz Janewattananond.

My picks for this week:

In the upper range I had JT last week, he won, I’m not coming off him now, I also like Xander, (except for his ownership) I was on Webb Simpson until his long time caddy bowed out with back issues.

In the mid range last week I had Daniel Berger, he tied for second, I’ll keep him for this week as well, I also like Collin Morikawa to do well. I also like Jason Day, the team and I were discussing with the cold weather and his back if he would be a good pick, his metrics have been in the elite group these last three tourneys, he’s worth a flier for that.

I also like Harris English, he’s been popping in my model frequently, along with Ryan Palmer, who shot a 65 last Sunday, I expect good things from him.

My out in left field play last week was Nick Taylor, he was a 6K plus play, he finished 35th, and brought value at that price. My left field play this week is X. Zang, a little known player from China who placed 10th and 12th at the Memorial and 3M tourneys, he has the metrics to make the cut, and at 6600, allows you to get another stud up top.

Every week Sia puts his ass…ets on the line and comes up with a Secret Weapon (SW) player that is in the 6 K range, isn’t owned by anyone, and brings value like a slot machine gone ballistic. It is incredibly difficult to find those nuggets every week but he gets it done and then some. Last weeks effort was a coin flip between Duncan and  Hughes, and Duncan it was, and  I supported that. This weeks SECRET WEAPON is Dylan Frittelli, (6800) with no ownership, (1.5%) and his metrics show he’s primed to deliver. SIA’s secret weapon is unleashed!

Thanks for check out our PGA Championship Ownership Projections. These projections and picks are delivered with the intent to assist you in your roster construction, and hopefully help you make the right decisions to capture a mega prize contest. I along with the other Win Daily Sports writers will be in the Discord channel to answer any questions and assist with any lineup issues. Please be sure to read all the Win Daily Sports golf articles, and check out Sia’s and Michaels live stream tonight at 830. There will be plenty of golf content to discuss along with other sports.

As always, I hope to be with you, in the money.

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PGAPremium

PGA Championship: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

Hopefully you’ve already reviewed The Range and now comes the onslaught of DFS picks from our entire team.  Here are my PGA Championship: Initial Picks and these will be further developed on the Win Daily Show Livestream tomorrow at 8:30 pm.  Joining us on tomorrow’s show is none other than Joel Schrek, who has won 100k in just the last 3 weeks in PGA DFS.  Please join us on the Livestream @windailysports or @SiaNejad.  Let’s get after it. Pricing is for DraftKings.

Jon Rahm (10500) – He’s great in all aspects of the strokes gained metrics and is particularly great OTT. I expect a bounce back from a very below average performance last week.  Won’t be nearly as popular as JT or Xander so you gain a bit of leverage with Rahm. 

Bryson Dechambeau (10300) – How about a contrarian play right off the bat.  Bryson is tracking at less than 10% ownership while everyone else in the 10k and above range is 15% or higher (including Xander and JT at above 23%).  Thanks but no thanks on the chalk.  The rap on Bryson is that he’s not going to be able to bomb his way around the course for four days and I actually agree with that.  I think we all forget that before Bryson put on all the weight he was one of the smarter and more calculated guys in golf, and I expect that golf IQ to be in play this week.

Webb Simpson (9700) – Very quietly finished 12th last week and if not for a couple of terrible putts he would have been firmly inside the Top 10.  Great ball striker and an improved short game.  He also leads the field in par 4 scoring average.  Reasonable price for a very consistent player with upside.

Daniel Berger (8800) – In case you didn’t notice, Berger finished 2nd last week at the WGC.  While everyone was wondering whether Brooks would catch JT, Berger was making his way up the leaderboard like he has been doing this entire year.  Berger’s game is too good and this price is too low.  Good OTT and Great on APP.  He gains a lot with the putter which can be hard to rely on from tournament to tournament but he’s also picking up strokes ARG.  In other words, he gains in every category.

Collin Morikawa (8600) – He is good OTT and amazing on APP (2nd behind Justin Thomas on the year).  His ARG game could be better but it’s not Hovland bad.  I question Collin’s game when it gets to crunch time on Sunday, but if he is battling for an outright win on Sunday but then freezes up, he’s already paid off his DFS price tag.

Abraham Ancer (7700) – Has made the cut in all tournaments since the restart and 4 of 5 have been Top 15.  He’s longer than many think OTT and he’s great on APP.  I tend to give a pass to anyone who was below average at the Memorial and Ancer was certainly below average there (58th).  But every other tournament he’s played since the restart has been a Top 15 finish.  This guy defines value at this price.

Tommy Fleetwood (7700) – His game sets up well for this course and he’s starting to play well after taking a long layoff post-restart (finished 35th last week at WGC but shot 4 under on Sunday).  Add to that Fleetwood may be perfectly fine with potentially volatile weather conditions and the price is just too good here to pass over.

Chez Reavie (7400) – There is simply nothing bad to say about this guy.  He’s been successful on this track in the past and he is hitting the ball better than almost anyone on the tour right now.  He will be popular for sure but he’s a great value.  Don’t go overweight on Chez in GPP but have some shares.  A great cash game play to free up some money up top.

Harris English (7200) – Hasn’t played a ton since the restart but he’s Top 20 in his last three (including an impressive 13th at the Memorial).  English has been striking the ball very well and gains in every category.

Tom Lewis (7100) – I mentioned Tom Lewis on the Win Daily Show Livestream last week and wish I had rostered him on more than a handful of teams.  Lewis was red hot last week and it feels like I’m chasing points here, but he’s made 3 cuts in a row including a 2nd at the WGC and a 12th the Rocket Mortgage.  He’s priced up a bit but his ability to turn it on at any given moment is too much to ignore.

Ryan Palmer (6900) – You will have some swings and some misses in this range but Palmer feels like the ultimate upside option in this range.  He’s been great OTT and on APP and is in very good form with a 15th and a 2nd in his last two.  If the conditions get dicey, Palmer should be just fine as he thrived in tough conditions at the Memorial. 

Rory Sabbatini (6800) – If you’re looking for a cheap contrarian play, you’ve got one here.  He hasn’t been great as of late but the cuts that he’s made since the restart (3 out of 5) he’s been right around Top 20. 

Harold Varner (6600) – To be blunt, this guy just hasn’t been good since the restart.  But typically his OTT and APP game are very good and considering his current price, I think he’s worth a shot.  He hasn’t played since the Memorial so hopefully he’s used the off time to work on his mechanics. 

Chan Kim (6200) – If you’re looking for a true longshot then you have found him here.  I’m no fan of the OWGR in terms of how it correlates to DFS success, but this guy is well inside the Top 100 and currently stands at 83.  His SG metrics leave a little to be desired but I’m going to take a shot here with an absolute no name.

Secret Weapon (sub 7k/sub 5% ownership) – see you in Discord

Thank you for check out my PGA Championship: Initial Picks. Again, make sure you tune into the Livestream to catch Joel Schrek, Michael Rasile and myself as we develop these picks. Also, Discord will be a constant flow of information and narrowing of picks as we approach Thursday morning. There is simply no better time to be a part of the Win Daily family. Let’s go.

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PGA

Saturday Showdown DFS Targets – WGC-FedEX

Joel Schreck
written by Joel Schreck

Saturday Showdown DFS Targets

It would have been hard to envision the current leaderboard with such a loaded field coming into the weekend, but here we are. 
Saturday offers us a brand new opportunity to get in the green this weekend! Here are my Saturday Showdown DFS Targets!

One thing to keep in mind when building lineups for Showdown slates is that you do not need to only target golfers who played well the day before. We naturally tend to favor golfers who are playing well but it is just as common for a professional golfer to have a poor day, fix their mistakes and come back with a low score the next day, just like we saw from Rory on Friday.

Dratking’s Showdown DFS Targets

Justin Thomas ($10,700): Justin’s ball striking was solid on Friday he just could not make many putts. He has a very low round 3 scoring average this season and while you will have to pay up for him, “you get what you pay for.”
Friday strokes gained:
APP: +2.14
OTT: +0.04
PUTT: -3.35

Brooks Koepka ($9,000): While he may be inconsistent, when Brooks is on he is capable of winning any tournament. He came out super hot on Thursday and crashed back down to earth a bit on Friday. However, when you take a deeper look his ball striking was fantastic on Friday but his putting was just terrible. He lost -4.64 strokes putting, the worst in the field by a large margin. If he can fix the putter, I like him to win this tournament.
Friday strokes gained:
APP: +3.01
OTT: -0.65
PUTT: -4.64

Dustin Johnson ($7,900): Simply put, he is way too good at golf to be priced beneath Henrik Stenson & Ian Poulter. It looks like his blow up from the previous couple of weeks are behind him, he has a solid history at this course and he is capable of having a super low round which is what you need to win a showdown GPP tourney. 
Friday strokes gained:
APP: +1.43
OTT: +0.41
PUTT: +0.20

Scottie Scheffler ($7,100): I was on Scottie before the tournament. He was ok on Thursday (-1) but he started to heat up on Friday going -3 for the day bringing him to -4 for the tournament and a share of 12th place. He is striking the ball really well this week and with a low score on Saturday he can put himself in a position to win the tournament on Sunday.
Friday strokes gained:
APP: +2.31
OTT: +0.57
PUTT: -0.74

Byeong Hun An ($6,700): An went -5 on Friday and currently has a share of 3rd place. His ball striking has been on point and frankly $6,700 just feels underpriced for him at this point. 
Friday strokes gained:
APP: +2.08
OTT: +1.61
PUTT: +0.02

Sung Kang ($6,600): At this price, I have to mention Sung here. He is currently -6 (-5 on Thursday, -1 on Friday) and is hitting the ball great, leading the entire field in SG APP on Friday at +4.08. He was not good off of the tee losing 1.64 strokes and he also lost almost 2 strokes putting. If he can make a few improvements tomorrow he can go five under again or better!
Friday strokes gained:
APP: +4.08
OTT: -1.64
PUTT: -1.99

Thanks for check out my article on WGC-FedEX St. Jude Invitational 2020: Saturday Showdown DFS Targets! Make sure to check out WinDailySports.com for more great content, follow me @DraftMasterFlex and @WinDailySports, and hop into our Expert Discord Chat to discuss your rosters!

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