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Sentry Tournament of Champions: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

It feels like the break took way too long, but golf season is back and I couldn’t be happier to be a part of this Win Daily Team. Join us Tuesday night (tonight!) at 8:00 EST for the PGA Livestream (You can watch on Twitter or our YouTube channel) and stay tuned for the numerous articles and Discord banter between now and tee time. This course doesn’t present much by way of challenges as fairways are very easy to hit and so are the greens. With that said, it does help to be long OTT, and as always, APP is an important factor (particularly the short iron game). Also, the Bermuda greens are quite large, and sometimes undulating here, so this may be a tournament to put a little extra emphasis on putting. This is a 42 person field and a no-cut event. See everyone tonight on the Livestream. Let’s get started with my Sentry Tournament of Champions: Initial Picks.

Dustin Johnson (11000) – I was a bit hesitant to include DJ because he is expensive and we’re not 100% sure he’s locked in post-Masters. Over his last four efforts on this course he’s never finished worse than 7^th (and he won it in 2018). He’s not my favorite play, but he’s not a fade either.

Justin Thomas (10700) – Speaking of course history, JT has won here twice in the last four years and his game is perfect for this course as he can go long off the tee and kill it with his short irons. His recent form has also been pretty impeccable with a 12^th at Mayakoba, 4^th at The Masters, 2^nd at the Zozo and 12^th at the CJ Cup. If choosing between DJ or JT, I choose JT (and so will most others as JT is tracking at close to 30% while DJ is around 25%. More on ownership during Tuesday night’s Livestream and Steven’s Wednesday ownership article).

Webb Simpson (9400) – This one is tricky because he’s not the best course fit, given that he’s a relatively short hitter, but that doesn’t preclude him from winning this thing. Webb is accurate, great with irons and can get hot with the putter (putting may be key here). Webb’s recent form isn’t great but it’s decent. I think the break may have been good timing for him and I like him at what I expect to be relatively low ownership.

Collin Morikawa (8800) – Speaking of low ownership, Morikawa is enjoying some of that because his recent play hasn’t been great. But he’s already won plenty on the PGA Tour and he’s typically great OTT and on APP. This is a play on ownership percentage and price. I’m willing to buy-low on a great ball striker who has already proven he can win.

Cameron Smith (8400) – Mr. Smith paid huge dividends for me and most of the Win Daily family during the Masters and I think he’s a guy that is going to really plant himself on the map this year. With that said, he’s not necessarily a great course fit and he’s only played here once in the last 5 years and that was a modest 17^th place finish. Frankly, I don’t really care what Cam Smith did 3 years ago here, I’m trying to get in early on him.

Joaquin Niemann (8300) – This is a no-cut event and for me that means take the streaky players (see Ryan Palmer below). Niemann can be inconsistent but that won’t cost you a missed cut this week and I think he has the talent to contend at the top if he can string together some of those aforementioned streaks. His recent form has been average and perhaps that’s why his pricetag is so low, but he did finish 5^th here last year.

Carlos Ortiz (7100) – Doesn’t grade out particularly well OTT or on APP but he is gaining in those categories (barely), but his recent form has been solid with an 8^th at Mayakoba and an outright win in Houston. I like the upside here.

Ryan Palmer (7000) – Did someone say upside? I’m biased because I may be the actual President of the Ryan Palmer fan club, and when it comes to no-cut events, he’s a great option. Yes, Palmer can blow up here or there, but he can put together great streaks, and frankly, his price here is a little disrespectful.

Andrew Landry (6300) – We’re officially in the “take some chances” range here and last year I saw Andrew Landry put some solid rounds together. Worth noting that his recent form is quite checkered with plenty of MC’s, but his last tournament was a 4^th place finish at the RSM.

Secret Weapon – A field of 42 doesn’t really give much room for a 6k/less than 5% owned play so the first SW will be next week. We will talk plenty about this 6k range in Discord though so stay tuned.

Thanks for checking out my Sentry Tournament of Champions: Initial Picks. See everyone tonight on the Livestream and don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast. Welcome back!

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Mayakoba Golf Classic: Initial Picks

Josh Matigian 4 years ago

written by Josh Matigian

Mayakoba Golf Classic: Initial Picks

The Win Daily PGA team will be bringing you the customary content this week and the website and Discord chat are sure to be active over the next 24 hours. Below are my Initial Picks for the Mayakoba and these picks incorporate recent form, course history and the appropriate strokes gained metrics (and maybe a hunch or two on golfers I’m expecting to surprise some people). As for the metrics to focus upon, I’m looking for drivers that are accurate off the tee and APP and PUTT. You do not need to be long off the tee on this course and that brings a few more golfers into the mix that can truly contend here. Tune into our Livestream tonight (and every Tuesday night) at 8:00 EST for more on these golfers and many more. Here are my Mayakoba Golf Classic: Initial Picks.

Brooks Koepka (11000) – Game is certainly rounding into form with a 7^th at the Masters and a 5^th at Houston and he feels like a great pivot off what will be a very chalky Justin Thomas. If you want to roster JT instead of Koepka, that’s fine, but just know JT is likely to carry about 10% more ownership. More on that with the @SicilyKid article on Wednesday and in Discord.

Viktor Hovland (9700) – His track record here doesn’t inspire confidence (two missed cuts) and he hasn’t been as good with the irons lately as I’d like, but I believe in his game too much to pass him up in this field.

Will Zalatoris (9200) – This guy is just red hot. He’s been excellent OTT and even better on APP. Add to that his last five tournaments he’s finished 16^th, 5^th, MC, 8^th and 6^th. A nice finish here may get him into the OWGR Top 50 which automatically qualifies him for the 2021 Masters.

Corey Conners (9000) – His track record here isn’t good, but I’m willing to overlook that because his recent form has been great (three Top 10’s in his last four tournaments). The strokes gained metrics add up as well as he has been great OTT and on APP.

Carlos Ortiz (8900) – He’s been good with the ball striking lately and relatively good with the short game. Add to that his recent form is obviously good with a 1^st place in Houston and the fact that he finished 2^nd here last year.

Emiliano Grillo (8300) – If this man could ever get the putter going, his price would consistently be in the mid 9k range in fields like this. The ball striking has been very good, particularly on APP. Other than Houston he’s been easily making cuts and he’s made four cuts in a row here.

Joel Dahmen (8000) – We’re looking for scorers and this guy can get hot in a flash. He’s high risk and high reward at times and when it unravels it can get bad, but his upside is too good for me to pass up.

Doug Ghim (7400) – He’s been excellent on APP and solid with the short game, and oh yea, I picked him as 1^st Round Leader on the Plantation course at the RSM and it hit (bang!). He’s got three Top 25’s in the last three tournaments.

Austin Cook (7300) – He let us down at the RSM with an MC, but was very good prior to that. He’s accurate OTT and can get hot on APP. Has flashed enough recent upside for me to have him in some lineups.

Brice Garnett (7000) –Some questionable recent form for Garnett, but what you can’t question is how much he likes this track as his last four here he’s finished 11^th, 5^th, 25^th and 7^th. Add to that he’s typically accurate OTT and we may be in the perfect spot for Garnett to pay off his price and then some.

Ryan Armour (6600) – I’m going to do my best to avoid the 6k range but if I need to dip down here, I think Armour is a great course fit. He is a short hitter which immediately makes him relevant on this course and he is also typically accurate OTT which should set him up well on APP. He’s made three cuts in a row here.

Secret Weapon (less than 6k/less than 5% ownership) – Tune into Discord on Wednesday.

See everyone tonight at 8:00 EST on the Livestream @windailysports on Twitter or on our Win Daily Sports YouTube channel.

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The RSM Classic: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

The RSM Classic: Initial Picks

After a monster week for the entire Win Daily family, we arrive at the RSM Classic. We have a full field and a lot of good names to choose from across all price ranges. Looking for ball striking metrics as usual, but the primary focus will be on accuracy. I’ll be taking a close look at APP, accuracy off the tee, ARG and putting (in that order). Tune into the Win Daily PGA Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST for more on the golfers below and many more. Let’s get to The RSM Classic: Initial Picks.

Webb Simpson (11200) – The most talented golfer in the field who happens to have a great course history and is in great form. It’s expensive but it’s worth it.

Russell Henley (10100) – Tough to swallow at this price but he’s been great since the restart and exceptional on APP. With that said, he was as mere 29^th in Houston and has missed the cut at the RSM the last two efforts here. I like Henley, but won’t be afraid to pay up for Webb.

Corey Conners (8900) – He’s played this course twice and has decent results but nothing spectacular. More importantly, Conners has been in great form with five made cuts in a row and a 10^th place finish last week in Augusta.

Doc Redman (8000) – A great ball striker who was underwhelming last time we saw him in Houston. He played this course last year and finished a respectable 23^rd. His ARG game has been flat out bad and that may cost him here, but I’m going to lean on the ball striking.

Brendan Todd (7800) – Usually thought of as a reliable option, Todd has been bad lately and that includes missed cuts in Augusta and Bermuda. I won’t have a lot of shares of Todd but he actually is a good course fit so I’m going to bank on him turning things around this week at low ownership.

Austin Cook (7500) – My Secret Weapon at Houston and he finished a redeemable 24^th. Prior to that he was 2^nd at the Shriners and has been great OTT and on APP. Also, no stranger to a hot putter. Oh, and by the way, he won it all here in 2018.

Harold Varner III (7400) – Likely a popular option in this range as this appears to be a bit of a misprice. A good ball striker that has been relatively hot of late (last three 15^th, MC, 13^th). He finished 23^rd last time he played here in 2019.

Joel Dahmen (7400) – Last time we saw Dahmen he finished 8^th at the Zozo and prior to that he wasn’t very good. Add to that he hasn’t been very good at this event and it seems like he’s a bad option, but he’s typically a great ball striker and can get hot quickly.

Cameron Tringale (7200) – He is very hit or miss at this event and his ball striking hasn’t been great lately, but I’m going with pedigree here and I expect Tringale to turn things around.

James Hahn (6900) – Was on him in Houston and he didn’t really pay off with a 50^th place finish, but prior to that he had three Top 10’s in a row. Ball striking numbers during that time have been great.

Doug Ghim (6700) – I was on Ghim in Bermuda and he paid off big with a 14^th place finish. He’s got three Top 25’s over his last four events and he’s been great on APP and ARG. I hope he’s not popular because this is big time value.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Check Discord

See you all tonight on the Livestream and don’t forget to subscribe to the Win Daily Youtube channel and the Win Daily podcast.

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

The Masters Final Ownership Projection

Steven Polardi 5 years ago

written by Steven Polardi

The Masters Final Ownership Projection

An Experience Like No Other…….THAT is the Masters. Welcome to The Masters Final Ownership Projection. We have been patiently waiting for the “ Super Bowl” of golf and now it has arrived. If you haven’t already, please check out the other content we have on Win Daily Sports!

There is rain in the forecast, the 10 shot cut rule has been scrapped for time constraints, and there’s a guy with a driver as long as Abe Lincoln, pounding drives 400 feet plus. (He still has to put it in the hole on the green)

ESPN held their Saturday College Game Day at Augusta last weekend, and ever since then, we have heard every pundit crow about their favorite to don the green jacket as well as the state of last years champion Tiger Woods.

It’s now time to add a little science into the equation, and if you don’t believe in science, I have a friend that wants you to stand still while he coughs on you for a little bit. The objective of having the ownership projections is to allow you to roster your teams with someone besides the flavor of the week, to gain leverage on your entire competition, and to unlock that six man team that puts a boatload of cash in your account, with that being said, welcome to the DraftKings Milly Maker and The Masters Final Ownership Projections.

I really liked DJ this week, until his ownership hit the 30 mark, he is presently at 31.1% and is now a fade for me, I don’t blame you if you go with him, keep in mind at 10,000 in salary he needs to finish top 2 to get value, and the best you get is a tie with 70,000 other players (30% of the 236,764 entry field) if you find someone else that matches or beats his score at a lower ownership %, you just got on top of 70,000 of your competitors.

Jon Rahm is next at 23.4%, Xander Schauffele follows at 22.6%, Tony Finau is 22.4%, Jason Kokrak is 21.6% and severely over owned for his salary and odds to make the top 20. Hideki Matsuyama is 21%, it then drops down a bit to Patrick Reed at 16.7%, Rory McILroy at 16.6%, Bryson “the bomber” DeChambeau is 16.5%, Webb Simpson is 15.5%, Cameron Smith is 15.4 % i like him, Justin Thomas is 15.2%, Sebastian Munoz is 14.7%, Matthew Fitzpatrick is 14.2%, Patrick Cantlay is 14%, Louis Oosthuizen is 13.3%, Bubba Watson is 13.2%, I like him and his %, Scottie Scheffler is 13%, a sleeper with risk, next we have 4 golfers within .01 of 12% owned each, they are Ian Poulter, Matthew Wolff, Jason Day and Brooks Koepka, all at 12%. Tyrell Hatton is 11.2%, Cameron Champ is 10.7%, Si Woo Kim is 10.5% and a sleeper.

Golfers Under 10% Ownership:

Justin Rose is 9.6%, Shane Lowry and Lanto Griffin are 9.4%, Kevin Kisner is 8.7% owned, I am on Kevin, Corey Conners is 8.6%, Erik Von Rooyen and Zach Johnson are 8.5%, Lee Westwood is 8.4%, Sungjae IM is 8.2%, Adam Scott and Abraham Ancer are 8.0 % owned, you will find JT Poston and Rickie Fowler at 5.9%, which will be 6% by the time Michael’s grandmother is done, Collin Morikawa is 5.8%, and he is Patrick “Sharps” Scott’s favorite player by a mile, Patrick learned that the first tourney at Augusta was the Masters National Invitational, he thought it would be a good idea to have them change it to the Collin Morikawa Invitational, he called up to the clubhouse and, allegedly, the conversation went like this: “Hello, can I speak to Hootie?” “Sir, our great chairman, Hootie, has passed, god bless Hootie.“ Then Patrick said, “Well then, could you connect me to one of the blowfish?”
There must have been some bad reception because the call was severed immediately. Good Luck with that Patrick! Paul Casey is 5.7%, Jordan Spieth is 5.1%

Golfers Under 5% Ownership:

Tommy Fleetwood is 4.8%, Francesco Molinari and Kevin Na are 4.5%, Charles Howell lll is 4.4%, B. An. and Tiger Woods are 4.2%, last year they said Tiger wasn’t playing well, he was hurt, hadn’t played much, just like this year, and where did he finish last year? Michael, Joel and Sia could answer that in a second! Matt Wallace is 3.8%, Billy Horschel is 3.4%, Matt Kuchar is 3.2%, Max Homa is 2.7%, Chez Reavie and Adam Hadwin are 2.3%, Brandt Snedeker is 2.2%, Lucas Glover is 2.1%, Bernd Weisberger is 2%.

Golfers Under 2% Ownership:

Charl Schwartzel is 1.9%, Brendan Todd and Dylan Frittelli are 1.8%, Gary Woodland is 1.7%, wow, remember when Woodland was 10K in salary and 25% owned? Hope he makes it back. Justin Harding is also 1.7%, Christian Bezuidenhout is 1.2%, Tyler Duncan is 1.1%, Henrik Stenson is 1%. Everyone else at the time of this report is under 1% owned, including Rafa Cabrera Bello at .86 of a %.

Masters Picks:

I loved DJ until his ownership went viral, I’m moving to Jon Rahm (10.5K) for the high end. I also like Xander at 9800.

I’ll also take some Bubba Watson (9K) and Tony Finau, (8800) more bubba due to ownership. Matthew Wolff (8500) is honorable mention here. Next are Louis Oosthuizen (7900) and Scottie Scheffler (7800). I’m going to have some Cameron Smith (7300) and Kevin Kisner (7100)

My out in left play this week is Si Woo Kim, (6800) he missed the cut by 1 stroke last week and I feel like he not only makes the cut, he makes the top 25.

Thank you for reviewing the Masters Final Ownership Projections, we appreciate it. Please review all the articles from Sia, Antonio, Patrick, and myself, once the article goes up I’ll be in DISCORD to go over any questions you may have, or to help with ownership, roster construction, leverage, and player to player metrics. Don’t miss Sia’s Secret Weapon (dun dun dun) coming up soon on Discord! It’s won more times than Tom Brady! (Okay, that Saints game doesn’t count) Sia’s Secret Weapon is coming out soon!

As always, I hope to see you, in the money.

Everyone, this tourney represents everything that is cool about golf, please enjoy it as you sweat the cut and scream your way to a Sunday conclusion. By the way, Webster’s dictionary will not be adding the f word to the front of bogie, even though it’s used a million more times a week by guys like us. Maybe next time.

– Steven/ Sicily kid

5 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Masters: Initial Picks

Sia 5 years ago

written by Sia

The Masters: Initial Picks

The moment many of us have been waiting for is upon us. We have finally arrived at Augusta and the Win Daily team will be blitzing you with content over the next 24 hours. Join us tonight for the PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST and stay tuned for more articles from the Win Daily PGA crew. And of course, join us in Discord as the conversation is likely to move at a rapid pace over the next couple of days. As for the strokes gained metrics that I will be emphasizing, they go as follows: APP, OTT, PUTT, ARG. Most people have those first two metrics swapped, but I’m a sucker for a good APP game so there you have it (I have them ranked pretty much even). I will also be putting a premium on Masters experience/course history. So here are my Masters: Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (10500) – Last time we saw Rahm he was finishing 2^nd at the Zozo, but more importantly he’s been Top 10 at the Masters the last two times he played (9^th and 4^th). It is very difficult to distinguish the Top 5 in this field because they all grade out well, but I’m rolling with Rahm and DJ.

Dustin Johnson (10000) – He has been amazing on APP and he’s in great form. Not sure what else you need in terms of being convinced, but he’s got three TOP 10’s in his last three efforts at Augusta (2^nd, 10^th, 4^th). Seems like a very reasonable price as well. Fire him up.

Xander Schauffele (9800) – Another guy with great form and good course history, albeit limited (2^nd and 50^th in his only two times at Augusta). Xander isn’t dominant OTT but his T2G game is fantastic and he can get hot with the putter more often than most. He also hasn’t missed a cut in his last nine majors.

Patrick Reed (9200) – Speaking of guys who can get hot with the putter, Reed has been automatic with the short stick over the last few tournaments. As for the complete game, he has everything you need to win at Augusta and the proof of that comes by way of the green jacket hanging in his closet. Reed shows up at majors and he should be dialed in this week.

Jason Day (8400) – This guy can get hot or cold any given week, but he’s been relatively hot at the Masters over the last few years (5^th, 20^th, 22^nd, 10^th in his last four and made 9 of 10 cuts). The form was great last week in Houston with a 7^th place finish. I won’t be overweight on Day, but I’ll have a few shares.

Louis Oosthuizen (7900) – Not a long hitter but plays great in big spots and has a pretty good track record here. His upside seems to be limited given he doesn’t grade out super well in any SG metrics relative to others in the field, but again, plays well in the big ones, as recently illustrated by his 3^rd place finish at The U.S. Open in 2020.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (7600) – Good recent form and good track record at Augusta. A guy that can also play well if the elements come into play. Fitzpatrick has been good OTT and APP over the last four tournaments (he did have a missed cut at the U.S. Open but that was a tournament where he was uncharacteristically bad with the putter).

Kevin Kisner (7100) – A Steven Polardi special and a guy who has never missed the cut at the Masters. I’m going with pedigree on this one as he isn’t necessarily a great course fit and he hasn’t been great OTT as of late, but my Masters experience bias is certainly in play here. Get more on Kisner in our Discord chat from Steven.

Ian Poulter (7000) – Missed the cut at the last major (U.S. Open), but coming off a 12^th at the CJ Cup and a 12^th place finish at the Masters last year. Poulter classically shows up for these events and I like the upside at this price.

Corey Conners (6600) – Has made four cuts in a row and made the cut last year in his inaugural shot at the Masters. Conners comes in with good form and checks the box with at least some course experience. He’s also been good lately OTT and on APP.

Justin Harding (6300) – Not much recent good form to go off of here, but if you’re looking for a big punt play, you may as well take a guy who finished tied for 12^th last year.

Secret Weapon (sub 7k/less than 5% owned) – We struck with Austin Cook last week. Join us in Discord tomorrow for this week’s Secret Weapon.

See you on the Livestream tonight and don’t forget to subscribe to the Win Daily Sports podcast and YouTube page. Thank you for enjoying my Masters: Initial Picks, stay tuned for my Masters Best Bets article which will be out on Win Daily Sports Wednesday!

5 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Masters Tournament: News, Notes, Musings, A Sleeper

Steven Polardi 5 years ago

written by Steven Polardi

The Masters Tournament: News, Notes, Musings, A Sleeper

Amen Corner. Rae’s Creek. Hogans Bridge.

We all immediately recognize that association to The Masters, amen corner was coined in 1958, the same year the United States invented the first microchip and the two #1 songs that year were Jerry Lee Lewis Great Balls of Fire, and The Chipmunks Christmas Song featuring Alvin, Elvis might have come up with a #1 but he was inducted into the Army that year. It’s amazing that a young man with degrees in Engineering, A Law Degree and in English Lit from Harvard had enough time to play a little golf, and build a golf course 90 years ago that’s pretty special.

Robert Trent Jones, aka Bobby Jones, won the grand slam of golf in 1930, among many other championships, and was considered to be, at that time, the greatest golfer to ever play the game, back in 1856 a company was formed called Fruitland Nurseries in Augusta which purchased an Indigo plantation, and they sold trees, shrubs and Azaleas. In 1931 their slogan was the Oldest Nursery in the South until Bobby, Dr. Alister Mackenzie, and Louis Berckmans bought it, designed it, and turned it into Augusta National in 1932. The first round was played in 1933, and the first tourney, called the Augusta NIT was played in 1934, Horton Smith won the inaugural event with a 284, and even back then people knew how special this place would be and would become, it was the first national radio broadcast of a golf event ever staged. Through the years it has stood the test of time, Sam Snead was awarded the first green jacket in 1949. Jack Nicklaus won his first masters in 1964, he won his sixth in 1986, spanning 3 decades and becoming the oldest golfer to do so, and the golfer with the most victories. Tiger Woods is the youngest to ever win with the lowest score and widest margin of victory. Tiger, last years winner, will be on the prowl stalking the course Thursday morning. Now for some more timely Masters Tournament News.

Sergio Garcia came down with Covid and had to decline his invitation to play, some of those not invited include Daniel Berger and Victor Hovland.

The Masters will no longer use the 10 strokes rule when making the cut. Normally 50 golfers, ties, and anyone within 10 strokes of the leader would be allowed to continue on Saturday, now it’s just 50 and ties. They will also use staggered tee times and threesomes, CBS wants to be able to broadcast the late NFL game on Sunday, so they want to be finished before 400 EST.

There is rain in the schedule for Thursday and Friday, which will soften up the greens, make the course more accessible and produce pin hunting golfers by the boatload, if they use that same strategy when it dries on Saturday and Sunday they won’t be happy at all.

Last week Sia and I agreed on the same golfer without even discussing him once, we found out when we made our picks. Austin Cook finished in 24th place, and Sia and I are so proud he brought great value at 6900 and a 2% ownership. This brings Sia’s Secret Weapon total to 21-2, as in 21 wins guys. Speaking of wins, Steve Wynns, owner of about every hotel and property in Las Vegas would throw out anyone with a record like that. Don’t forget that Sia’s Secret Weapon goes out Wed aft/eve on Discord, and they have the red hot scorching Live Stream that’s picking up steam on Tuesday nights at 8 with Michael, Sia and Joel. CNN was complaining last Tuesday eve that their ratings went down right at 7:02 when the election news was breaking and allegedly tried to jam the live stream to get their viewers back. Networks. Go figure.

Guys my last 4 out in left field plays have all made the cut and brought value, forgive me if I don’t put that in the same paragraph as Sia’s record, I would lose that show me yours contest.

My early pick from the model for this week is Kevin Kisner, right now I feel he is way under the radar and he knows this course, he should be low owned and a cut maker who can move the needle. NOTE: I will update this pick in my article on ownership projections on Wednesday.

Guys this is Masters week, I’ve probably had 7 hours sleep since Sat night feeding the models raw data and mining the data from the majors and the Houston Open players that will play Thursday. This one is important, and it’s special, to all of us. Thanks for enjoying some of my thoughts on Masters Tournament: News, and enjoy everything else coming down the pipeline!

As always, I hope to be with you, in the money.

Steven/ Sicily Kid

5 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Houston Open: Initial Picks

Sia 5 years ago

written by Sia

Houston Open: Initial Picks

Brand new course so we will not have any course history to utilize. Much like the Zozo we’ve got five par 3’s and five par 5’s so you’ll want golfers who can take advantage of the Par 5’s. With that said, make sure you roster guys that are good on APP (and who are particularly good with their long irons as that will be a factor on some of the long Par 4’s and Par 3’s) as the winner of this tournament will need to be precise with his second shot and not get caught up ARG. Tune in tonight (Tuesday night) at 8:00 EST for the PGA Livestream and make sure you subscribe to the podcast and our YouTube page. See you tonight. Here are my Houston Open: Initial Picks.

Tyrrell Hatton (10300) – Looking for great ball strikers who can get red hot on any given day. Sure, the other guys in this elite range fit that mold, but a few of them may be looking ahead to the Masters and I don’t think Hatton has that mentality.

Viktor Hovland (9800) – I’m a Hovlang guy for sure, but my bias aside, you can’t deny his iron and T2G game. My hope is that Hovland doesn’t need to worry about ARG because his APP shots are on point. It’s looking like Hovland will be relatively low owned in this range.

Doc Redman (8800) – A great ball striker who flashed last week with a 4^th place finish. He’s a great ball striker and he’s in good form which is a good enough recipe to have Doc on your roster. Doc’s ARG game has not been good so you’re really looking for him to be great with the ball striking which he has proven he can do.

Cameron Davis (8100) – May be a popular guy at this price as he can hit it a long way and hopefully take advantage of the five par 5’s. Add to that he’s made seven cuts in a row and you have a guy with a good floor and plenty of upside.

James Hahn (8000) – Has played in three tournaments since September and his finishes in those tournaments are 5^th, 6^th and 9^th (Safeway, Puntacana, Shriners). I’m not a Hahn guy but I can’t ignore this recent form. With the exception of the Workday, Hahn’s ball striking has been fantastic and he’s shown the ability to flash with the putter (full disclosure Hahn missed 6 of 7 cuts immediately prior to his recent incredible Top 10 streak).

Stewart Cink (8000) – His lack of length isn’t ideal, but he’s been excellent on the Par 3’s and there are five of them here. I think his ball striking should be good enough to fare well on the rest of the holes. Add to it he has his son back on the bag and that seemed to be a difference making factor last week.

Denny McCarthy (7900) – Coming off a 4^th place finish last week and has been very impressive since the summer. He’s made 9 of his last 10 cuts with three top 10 finishes in that span. He also happens to be an excellent putter and it doesn’t appear like the regression is coming with the flat stick.

Adam Schenk (7100) – The guy just refuses to miss the cut (jinx?). I think it’s 10 cuts in a row at this point. The problem is that he doesn’t seem to ever finish in the Top 20. Perhaps a conservative play here, but I can’t ignore his ability to play four days.

Scott Stallings (6900) – Been in decent form as of late and that includes a 26^th place finish last week and a 6^th place at the Sanderson (in between those two he missed the cut at the Shriners). He’s been great on APP thus far this year. His short game needs some work but good value here.

Austin Cook (6900) – Flashed last time we saw him play at the Shriners where he lost in a playoff. He’s been inconsistent with the ball striking but you’re going to get that in this range. He’s made 8 out of 9 cuts.

Carlos Ortiz (6700) – When Ortiz is great with the ball striking he’s terrible with the putter. And when he’s great with the putter, he’s terrible with the ball striking (last time out at the Zozo he gained over six strokes on APP but lost almost six strokes putting). The guy hasn’t put it together but you’d think it’ll all come around at some point. This is a punt play for sure, but has some upside.

Secret Weapon (sub 7k/less than 5% owned) – stay tuned and see you in the Win Daily Discord channel.

See everyone tonight and make sure you jump into Discord!

5 years ago 0 comments

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Bermuda Championship DFS Projections

Steven Polardi 5 years ago

written by Steven Polardi

Bermuda Championship DFS Projections

This week the tour heads to Bermuda, an island closest to North Carolina for their weekly PGA tournament. Reports are that it may get a bit windy, especially Saturday and Sunday. Those golfers with good stinger shots should say thank you to it’s inventor, Mr. Tiger Woods. We’ll get to my Bermuda Championship DFS Projections, but first…

Last week my top pick was Jon Rahm and I mentioned in my report I would be overweight on him. I also had Kevin Kisner, Ryan Palmer, Sebastian Munoz and Patrick Reed, my out in left field play was Takumi Kanaya, who for 6,300 in salary scored 83.5 DK points for extremely good value. I was lamenting the fact that if Kisner had moved up a couple of spots to top 5, and if Rahm had won, instead of coming in 2nd, I would have increased my earnings into the thousands. Then I watched as the DraftKings NFL Millionaire Maker was being won by a guy that had 6 seconds left to win a million, and a missed kick sent it into overtime, and he ended up losing 900,000 dollars for a missed kick, suddenly I felt much better, even though I shouldn’t have. A missed kick, a missed 2 foot gimme putt, they all can have “life changing money” consequences, it’s why I love DFS golf. Let’s get to the final projections for The Bermuda Championship so we all can go after that life changing money!

Final Projections for The Bermuda Championship

The most owned golfer by a whopping amount is actually a Korn Ferry pro trying to gain his tour card, Will Zalatoris is 31%+ and is projected to be at around 34% by lock. He is very good with great metrics, even so, that means a total fade for me at that ownership, if he doesn’t win, I just gained leverage on 1/3 of the field by not rostering him. Doc Redman is 22.3%, he’s second and almost 10% less owned than Will. Peter Malnati, an industry darling, is 21%. Justin Suh is 19%, Adam Schenk is 18%, Denny “putts” McCarthy is 17.7%, Kristoffer Ventura is 17%, Harold Varner lll at 16.9% ownership, Stewart Cink is 15.6%, Wesley Bryan is 15.2%, Sepp Straka is 13.7%, Emiliano Grillo is 13.6%, Henrik Norlander is 13%, Cameron Tringale, who I like is 12.7%, Aaron Wise is 12.6%, Pat Perez is 11.4%, Henrik Stenson is 11.2%, Charley Hoffman is 10.9%.

Golfers under 10% ownership:

Max Homa and Tyler McCumber are 9.8%, Scott Piercy is 9.4%, Luke List is 9.2%, Russell Knox is 9.1%, Beau Hossler is 8.7%, Scott Stallings and Doug Ghim, a Sia favorite, are 8.4%, Jason Dufner is 8%, Anirban Lahiri is 7.9%, Kyle Stanley is 7.7%, Maverick McNealy is 7%, Chesson Hadley and Will Gordon are 6.9%, Rasmus Hojgaard, a phenom from Europe, is 6.8%, Tom Lewis is 6.5%, Patrick Rodgers is 6.3%, Wyndham Clark is 6%, Jhonattan Vegas is 5.9%, Rob Oppenheim is 5.4%, Hank Lebioda and Matt Jones are 5.2%, Chase Seiffert is 5.1%, and a dark horse.

Golfers under 5% ownership:

Hudson Swafford is 4.9%, Michael Gligic is 4.4%, Troy Merritt is 4.3%, all the touts who said wait till Troy plays on Bermuda grass….he’s playing IN Bermuda this week, Brice Garnett is 4.2%, Brian Stuard is 3.7%, Kramer Hickok, David Hearn and Branden Grace are 3.5%, Andrew Putnam and Ollie Schniederjans are 3.3%, Vaughn Taylor, Chris Baker, and Ben Martin are 3% owned, Joseph Bramlett, Bo Hoag and Danny Willett are 2.9%, Rafa Cabrera Bello is 2.8%, Ryan Armour and Vincent Whaley are 2.6%, Josh Teater is 2.5%, Padraig Harrington is 2.4%, Brandon Hagy is 2.2%, Aaron Baddeley and Nick Watney are 2.1%. Kelly Kraft is 2%

Golfers under 2% ownership:

Kiradech Aphibarnrat and Bronson Burgoon are 1.9%, Camilo Villegas, Wes Roach, Seamus Power and Roger Sloan are 1.8% owned, Fabian Gómez is 1.6%, Brian Gay, Sang Moon Bae and Mark Anderson are 1.3% owned, K.H.Lee and Scott Harrington are 1.1% owned.

All other golfers are under 1% owned at the time of this report including Bill Haas who is owned by less than 1/10th of 1%, if your looking for that grand slam! (I probably won’t risk it)

Picks for The Bermuda Championship:

I really liked Will Zalatoris until his ownership % went tilt. At his salary and ownership, he MUST win to get you value, if Grillo could putt straight I’d pick him because he plays well in high gusting winds, so my first high priced pick is Doc Redman for his stats relative to his recent play and also that his irons are the best part of his game. I’ll follow up with Charlie Hoffman who can play lights out in a breeze.

I also like Peter Malnati although I’m not thrilled with his ownership, he gained 4.7 and 6.2 strokes on approach the last 2 times he played on Bermuda, he’s definitely playing on it this week.

For value I’ll go with Scott Stallings, he has the best stinger shot of anyone playing this week and he can gain strokes with just that one shot.

On the low end I’m playing Hadley, Garnett and McCumber in rotation on my teams, I won’t be using them as a core.

My out in left play this week is Camilo Villegas, 6400 salary, no one is on him, 1.8% ownership, he gained 7.3 strokes at the Sanderson Farms tourney and Bermuda is his best putting surface, this is a risky play that I feel will make the cut, and at that price and ownership anything after that is pure gravy.

I’ll be in the Discord Channel after this report is published to answer any questions on ownership, roster building, and player on player analysis.
Please review the writers reports on Win Daily Sports to gain additional perspective, and join in the live stream on Tuesdays at 8:00 EST for Michael, Sia and Joel’s intel on the upcoming tournament, guys this info is solid gold and speaking of gold, rather platinum, don’t forget Sia’s world renown SECRET WEAPON (cue star wars theme music) that will be unleashed on The Discord Channel later tonight! Do not miss it !

Thanks so much for reviewing this Bermuda Championship DFS Projections report, we appreciate it, and as always, I hope to be with you, in the money.

5 years ago 0 comments

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ZOZO Championship Ownership Projections

Steven Polardi 5 years ago

written by Steven Polardi

ZOZO Championship Ownership Projections

Greetings Jason Kokrak fans! This weeks PGA tour takes us to California and Sherwood Country Club for the ZoZo Championship, scheduled farther out in the Pacific (Japan) but dialed back into the US due to pandemic issues. This is a no cut event, and Dustin Johnson is out from Covid, and Adam Scott just withdrew, Tony Finau is back, as well as some guy named a Tiger who used to play a while back. Let’s breakdown the ZOZO Championship Ownership Projections.

Last week I had Jason Kokrak in 9 of my lineups, (thanks Isaiah), my model liked Bubba Watson and Russel Henley, and I was on Palmer as well. On Thursday morning before lock I read a blip that said Kokrak has never won in 233 starts, and in over ten years never sniffed a trophy, so I promptly pulled him out of 7 lineups. I ended up +600, and considered last week a loss due to the fact that if I stayed with Kokrak I would have made 14 times that. Sometimes we tinker with lineups and get the above results, sometimes we tinker and get hot and get paid well, then we are all suddenly a genius and know everything about DFS, for at least another week anyway.

This course is only 7000 yards with 5 par 5s and 5 par 3s with major scoring potential, ownership will be important with a small no cut field to differentiate between winning 1st place or sharing 1st place with 3000 strangers, let’s take a look at the ZOZO Championship Ownership Projections.

The golfer with the highest ownership by a longshot is Webb Simpson sitting at 22.6% +, Justin Thomas is next at 20.7% closely followed by Jon Rahm at 19.9%, Rory has jumped to 18.3%, (a lot of Adam Scott ownership moved his way.) Xander is next at 17.7%, then it drops to Matt Wolff at 15.9%, NOTE: Matthew Wolff went to high school 7 miles from this course, he knows it well. Tyrrell Hatton is 15.6%, Joaquin Niemann is 15.1%, Collin Morikawa is 14.5%, and is reportedly seeking medical treatment for hallucinations, he is allegedly seeing Patrick “Sharps” Scott behind every palm tree, on a totally unrelated note Patrick has palm fronds available for sale for all your holiday decoration needs. Harris English is 14.2%, Sebastian Munoz is 14.1%, pretty high for his salary range, Daniel Berger is 13.4%, Patrick Reed is 13.2%, Russell Henley and Victor Hovland, a favorite of Sia’s, is at 12.9%, Lanto Griffin is 12.6%, Cameron Smith is 12.5%, Sungjae Im is 12.4%, Hideki Matsuyama is 12.1%, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Abraham Ancer are 11.3%, Brian Harmon is 11.2%, some old geezer named Tiger and Scottie Scheffler are both at 11.1%, Ryan Palmer and Brendan Todd are at 10.8%, Paul Casey is 10.5%, Patrick Cantlay is 10.4%.

Golfers under 10% Ownership:

Bubba Watson is 9.8%,( last week I had him as a pick in my report, he finished 7th. Sia and I both like him again this week, he has a sweet fade shot which this course supports) Billy Horschel is 9.7% and I like him this week, Justin Rose and Kevin Kisner are at 9%, Talor Gooch, a favorite of Michaels, is 8.4%, Adam Hadwin is 8.2%, Kevin Na and Rickie Fowler are at 8.1%, Rickie has dropped a lot in salary and ownership, his play has dictated this downward trend, and Michaels grandmother is still disappointed. Matt Kuchar is 7.4%, Kevin Na, Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, Mackenzie Hughes and Gary Woodland are all at 7%. Jason Kokrak and Tommy Fleetwood are at 6.8%, Kevin Streelman is 6.7%, Joel Dahmen is 6.6%, Corey Conners is 6%.

Golfers under 5% Ownership:

Jason Day and Cameron Champ are 4.6%, Harry Higgs is 4.3%, Alex Noren is 4%, Mark Hubbard is 3.7%, Danny Lee and Dylan Frittelli are 3.4%, Brendan Steele, B An, and Phil Mickelson are 3.3%, Adam Long is 3.2%, Tyler Duncan is 3%. Tom Hoge is 2.9%, Marc Leishman is 2.3%, Carlos Ortiz is 2.2% and Richy Werenski is 2.2% (another good sleeper).

Golfers under 2% Ownership:

Nick Taylor is 1.8%, Andrew Landry is 1.4%, Jazz Janewattananond is 1.1%, Takumi Kanaya is 1%. A golfer of note is Michael Thompson at .0039%.
All other golfers including Thompson are under 1% at the time of this report.

Picks for the ZoZo Championship

Jon Rahm is my golfer of choice for the top end, he has a 37% chance to be in the top optimal lineup, I’ll be overweight on him.

In the mid range I’m going with Patrick Reed and Collin Morikawa, their recent metrics have been ultra solid and Reeds eye should fit this course.

In the lower end I like Richy Werenski and Kevin Kisner. They are low owned and can allow salary relief and have 15% or better to hit top 20 results.

My out in left field play this week is Takumi Kanaya, the former #1 amateur who placed 7th in his first start as a pro. He’s low owned and he has the game to get birdies which means points.

Please review the articles by Sia, Antonio, Isaiah, Patrick and myself for more in depth analysis, and don’t miss the live cast on Tuesday evenings featuring Michael, Sia and Joel. I will be in the Discord Channel to answer any questions and to assist with roster construction or player intel.

Thanks for taking the time to review this article, we appreciate it, and as always, I hope to be with you, in the money.

5 years ago 0 comments

PGA

ZOZO Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 5 years ago

written by Sia

ZOZO Championship: Initial Picks

Another 78 person field and another opportunity to jam in upside at a no-cut event. We will bring you much more in the next 24 hours with articles and our expert chat, and of course, the Tuesday PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST @windailysports on Twitter and YouTube and Twitch. We have a relatively short course this week with five Par 5’s and five Par 3’s. I’d focus on birdie makers and APP here but you will also want to factor in accuracy OTT as there are some trouble spots on most of the holes. Here are my ZOZO Championship: Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (11000) – The entire team was on Xander last week and that worked out just fine, but this week I’m going to pivot from Xander to Rahm in the elite range. Rahm was average last week (17^th) and hopefully that keeps his ownership reasonable.

Justin Thomas (10600) – Another guy I like in the elite tier. His APP game is best in the field and last week’s 12^th place finish felt like a tune-up. If he can get the putter going at all you will see him contending late Sunday afternoon.

Patrick Reed (9600) – Haven’t heard from him much lately but let’s not forget the last time we did see him as at the U.S. Open where he finished 13^th. He’s also enjoyed great success on comparable courses.

Viktor Hovland (9200) – One of my top guys last week and he quietly finished in 12^th. He gained over 3 strokes ball striking last week and even gained strokes ARG which is his alleged weakness.

Bubba Watson (8700) – Literally the first time I’ve ever had Bubba in a write-up, but the guy has earned it. His ball striking has been elite lately and it’s looking like his ownership percentage will be below 10% which is notable given the price range and the number of players in the field.

Joaquin Niemann (8400) – Can go hot and cold but was great last week and has the type of upside you want. This is a great price for a guy in great form and a great course fit. I may sprinkle some on Joaquin for an outright win.

Russell Henley (8100) – I didn’t have as many shares as I should have last week and it cost me. He continues to be priced low and therefore needs to be considered as his ball striking has been great lately. Normally I’d suggest his upside is limited, but that’s hard to argue as he finished 3^rd last week. Be careful here as he picked up a ton of strokes putting last week. Still, even if putter cools down, the value is good at this price.

Sebastian Munoz (7200) – A pretty low price for a guy that has been making cuts at an incredible rate and who has the ability to finish Top 10 as he proved last week. We may be looking at a guy who is ready to consistently be in the conversation, so I’m going to jump aboard while he’s still cheap.

Joel Dahmen (6500) – In a no-cut event I’m looking for a guy who can string a very low round together and Dahmen is that guy. His blow up spot won’t cost you too much relative to the scoring potential he has all four days.

Secret Weapon (Sub 6k/Less than 5% owned) – see you in Discord.

See everyone tonight for the Tuesday Livestream and don’t forget to subscribe to the Win Daily Podcast and YouTube channel!

5 years ago 0 comments

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