Another week and another preview to deep-dive into as the PGA Tour moves to Arizona for the WM Phoenix Open!
The PGA Tour were a bit unlucky after what can only be described as a somewhat lacklustre finish to the first proper signature event of the season. Offsetting that was a rather remarkable round from Wyndham Clark. You can hardly begrudge him his victory after an impressive round of 60, despite the reduction to 54 holes to hurricane like weather. Also, a huge shoutout to one of our WinDaily team Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) who successfully tipped him at 100/1!
Although we correctly predicted the event would only be held over 54 holes, we ourselves were a bit unlucky to get on the wrong side of the weather. Although Thursday was tough as predicted, Friday ended up playing much easier than forecasts foreshadowed. This resulted in a substantial edge developing for players who played the more sheltered Spyglass Hill on Thursday. We had unfortunately gone the other way, expecting higher forecast winds on Friday to prove difficult on the highly exposed Pebble Beach Golf Links.
These things can and do happen. Part of covering any live sporting event is the unpredictability and volatility that naturally enters that territory. But, isn’t that part of the beauty? And, this was the first tournament this year where we didn’t really end up with anyone in true contention. We trust the process and continue what we do best, as we preview the WM Phoenix Open.
Having been held at TPC Scottsdale, since 1987, we again have one of those beautiful weeks where there is plenty of easy data available to preview the WM Phoenix Open. It only take a cursory glance at previous leaderboards to realise a couple things. Firstly, with several multiple winners here course history is relatively sticky. Secondly, that this is a course dominated by good ball strikers.
Names such as Scheffler, Matsuyama, Koepka, Fowler, Thomas, and Mickelson all hint at some of the best iron players on the Tour. They also have a certain amount of grit to them, often finding themselves in contention in the biggest of events. Despite losing signature status, still remains amongst the more iconic events on the schedule.
Of note in the data is the heavy skewing we see in approach distances. Golfers will see between 8-9 approach shots on average from 150-200 yards. Despite being an above average length par 71 at 7,261 yards, roll-out tends to give a helping hand to shorter hitters. Likewise, the wide fairways and fairly benign rough mean you can pull driver often without actually providing much advantage. The main thing off the tee is to avoid the big miss and the risks in the natural waste areas. Your approach is the way to separate yourself from the pack.
Huge green complexes average over 7,000 sq ft. This sees an increased importance on not just finding the green, but the right area and shelf on the surfaces. Putting does receive a higher weighting at this course. A combination of needing to lag putt, avoid long three putts, and make your birdie opportunities see SG: Putting as a good indicator of potential success.
As mentioned, prior form at TPC Scottsdale does tend to be a good predictor of future success here. Accordingly, you should give a higher weighting to previous performance on this track than at other venues. Likewise, if a golfer has had several opportunities to preview this course and never really performed well you should take this into consideration at the WM Phoenix Open.
Other desert form is useful to consider at this event. TPC Summerlin, host of the Shriners Children’s Open in neighbouring Las Vegas Nevada, is a decent enough guide. You will see similar approach metrics to those at the WM Phoenix Open, and a preview into a golfers ability in desert altitude.
Additionally, Colonial Country Club and TPC San Antonio in Texas bear consideration. The latter, host of the Valero Texas Open, is a particularly good guide. TPC San Antonio also features multi-tiered Poa Trivialis greens. They also have near identical distances throughout the course. Average par 4/5 length being 469 vs 467 yards and average par 3 length being 188 vs 183 yards. Fairway widths are 31.3 on average vs 31.5 yards at TPC Scottsdale.
Finally, The American Express provides a nice combination of desert golf and recent form. It is worth considering as guide for your WM Phoenix Open preview.
We saw the beauty of the volatility that comes with the weather last week. Although we nailed the call early in the week that the Pebble Beach Pro-Am would be a 54 hole event, Friday brought far less rain and winds than had been originally forecast.
Certainly, it always poses a risk to take a stance when it comes to mother nature. However, the risk so often proves worthwhile. Bookmakers are notoriously slow to react to weather forecasts in adjusting their pricing. Likewise, DFS players can benefit in significant leverage on the rest of the field when you get the weather right and have constructed your line-ups to benefit.
It does seem quite possible a weather edge may develop this week as well. Thursday looks to be cold and overcast all day. Rain is predicted in mid to late afternoon. This will make the course play longer, but also mean the greens will play softer. The heaviest wind gusts are currently forecast in the morning. Friday looks to be calm but still cold. There is little variation in wind gusts forecast throughout the day. Saturday looks to bring quite heavy rain, which could prove difficult for any very short hitters who aren’t excellent with longer approach shots. Sunday should be sunny, but a very cold morning to start.
If I were to take a guess, those going out Thursday afternoon may see the best of conditions. There is certainly a risk that flips again this week. The rains could well be accompanied by either an uptick or continuation of the morning winds. As such, I’d definitely recommend building some contrarian lines this week to cover both angles in some capacity.
Find my Profit and Loss Tracker here.
We believe trust and transparency is key in this industry. We keep meticulous result tracking, so you can sign-up with the utmost confidence you are joining one of the sharpest golf bettors on the planet.
With another golf season in full swing, we have a very special offer on our premium memberships.
JOIN HERE NOW
Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEDAVE and get 3 months for just $USD99.99!
That is a saving of $50; basically meaning you get a whole month of FREE access!
You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.
One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one on one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have.
Thank you for reading my WM Phoenix Open preview and tournament analysis. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
What a week! Having been knocking on the door at every PGA Tour event in 2024, we finally saw one of our golfers get across the line. Obviously, that was in a rather big way with Matthieu Pavon making these pages at a massive 125/1! A huge bet landing, but also our first real signature event of the season as we preview what to expect from Pebble Beach.
Of course, it was a result that had been coming for quite sometime. At all three PGA Tour tournaments, we had who seemed the likely winner right there on Sunday. Theegala was runner-up and Spieth 3rd at The Sentry. We had Henley, Grillo, and Putnam at the Sony Open. Henley should’ve probably won that event, as should Sam Burns at the American Express last week. I always reiterate, the key is to trust the process. As we continue to find the likely winner at events, the more they are in the position to do so and come Sunday one will eventually find his way tot he top of the podium.
We can’t get too greedy having hit a huge winner last week. Despite the huge hit, we still had a few close calls. Patrick Rodgers secured himself a 9th place finish. That cashed our Top 20 bet on him at +300. He did miss out by one shot on a full place payout at +1320. Zalatoris looks well on the way to recovery, finishing 13th for us just two shots off a full place at +900. Schenk was one shot off cashing his Top 20 bet at +450. All around, a very profitable week obviously. Let’s go get some more with our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview!
Some important changes this year to note in our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview. With the move to a Signature Event, keeping the sponsors happy with all the best available players here, we also see the reduction to a field size of just 80 players.
This means we see the third course in rotation, Monterey Peninsula, dropped. Amateurs will only play first two rounds, with all the professionals playing 4 rounds with no cut. The first two rounds are split between Spyglass Hill and Pebble Beach. Pebble Beach Golf Links will then host the final two rounds.
This should prove easier than the confusing mangle of data when three courses were in rotation and required analysis. Particularly, with three rounds on Pebble Beach it means we can near exclusively focus on players suitability to that course and what is required in our preview.
Pebble Beach is a rather unique and quirky test. The iconic course is very short. Sitting at under 7,000 yards it is the shortest par 72 on the PGA Tour. Greens are also some of the smallest we see of the regular PGA Tour stops at just 3,500 sq feet on average. Despite the short distance, cliffs and hazards determine that it can’t simply be overpowered by the driver. However, with the 4th widest fairways on Tour driving accuracy is also of limited importance here. As such, we see nearly all players playing from the same approach distance often.
This sees one of the largest concentrated pockets of approach shots all season, with 100-150 yard approach essential to success. With the tiny greens, there is also a large uptick in both SG: ATG and SG: Putting. These both receive heavy weighting in my model. Especially, considering the current inclement weather predicted which we will discuss shortly.
Firstly, as we preview some course comps for Pebble Beach it is worth noting course history is somewhat transitive at this event. It becomes difficult to untangle individual performance on each track with a myriad of factors in account. For example, if a day in particular played more difficult in general should we read too much into a golfer’s performance on whichever course they were on? If this event does remain across the two courses, especially with three rounds at Pebble Beach Golf Links, deciphering suitability and crossover to other tournaments may become easier.
The same can be said when discussing comp courses. I believe Harbor Town should prove somewhat decent guidance. Like Pebble Beach, we see a large deviation from standard driving distance. Greens are also extremely small, with increased missed GIR seeing a boost in SG: ATG and SG: Putting. Mav McNealy finished 4th at the RBC Heritage the same year he was runner-up at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Jordan Spieth has an excellent record at both and is a winner at each.
The RSM Classic could also be a useful guide. Another coastal tournament, it uses a rotation between the Seaside Course and longer Plantation Course. General form in California is appreciated, as is performance on these tricky poa annua greens.
You know the weather must be bad when the rest of golf Twitter is suddenly alight with forecast take! Of course, we always preview weather as an essential component of our analysis and especially at Pebble Beach. It seems bizarre not to when no other sport is more subject to the elements.
Objectively, the weather does indeed look dreadful this week. There is a large frontal system moving along the coast, with the first wave to hit overnight Wednesday.
Thursday itself should be calm. However, it is worth noting the huge amount of rain forecast overnight with high winds. There may be delays due flooding or downed trees with branches that need retrieving before play can commence. Friday will again see light rain, with some moderate gusts in the afternoon.
Saturday sees much of the same. Sunday is where it looks to get really gnarly. The rest of the storm is forecast to arrive, bringing extremely heavy rain and winds gusting up to 60mph. I wouldn’t be surprised if no play occurs on that day. Especially, considering the exposed nature of Pebble Beach you could easily see balls unable to remain still on the greens. Expect either a 54 hole event or a Monday finish (which still looks very wet and windy).
What should we make of this? Given breadth of the weather, the best approach is likely simply finding golfers who have positive performance in wet and windy conditions. I do have a slight preference to playing the more exposed Pebble Beach on the Thursday. Spyglass Hill receives a modicum of protection due to the trees on the property.
You can find latest forecast details here.
Make sure to check in the WinDaily Premium Discord for up to date weather information using premium models, right up until first tee-time.
Thank you for reading my Pebble Beach preview and tournament analysis.
If you would like to read my golf betting tips and player profiles for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, you can preview these here.
For the start of a new golf season, we have a special offer on our premium memberships.
We are so confident in our pricing that we guarantee this will be our best deal ever in 2024. Basically, if you see a cheaper price advertised in 2024 we will happily refund you the difference on your annual membership.
Find my Profit and Loss Tracker here.
We believe trust and transparency is key in this industry. We keep meticulous result tracking, so you can sign-up with the utmost confidence you are joining one of the sharpest golf bettors on the planet.
JOIN HERE NOW with an annual membership.
Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEDEAL and get 2024 for just $USD240!
That is a saving of $209.99 off our usual annual premium membership price of $499.99.
ENDS 31 JANUARY 2024.
You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.
One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one on one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have
I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
It seems only fitting that the PGA Tour have dropped the “Tournament of Champions” part from the tournament title for The Sentry, our first preview of 2024. After all, this will now be the second consecutive year where the champion is not actually even here to defend their title. Cameron Smith was absent in 2023. Subsequently, Jon Rahm will not be here in 2024 as the latest and most significant defection to LIV Golf. That is a real shame not just for the PGA Tour but, most importantly, the fans. You can read more on my thoughts on the defection and what 2024 may hold here.
Before we dive into our Sentry preview proper, I’d like to take a paragraph to thank all my loyal followers in 2023. Especially, to all our WinDaily Sports subscribers. Obviously, there are costs associated with running a website and providing the best coverage of golf tournaments that we can. For those who supported me in that, please accept my heartfelt gratitude. You literally keep the lights on and, therefore, help us continue producing more great content.
Of course, this also paid off in a rather grand way for our Premium subscribers in 2023!
2023 we had 15 outright winners for a return of investment of +22% on the DP World Tour and +40% on the PGA Tour.
2023 total ROI was an EPIC +33% and profit of +929.58 units.
Using just $10 per unit, you would have made over $9,000 in 2023!
That follows a 2022, when we had 16 outright winners for a return of investment of +24% on the DP World Tour and +26% on the PGA Tour. It marks our 5th consecutive year of profitability; may 2024 bring another one!
This is often a tricky event to cover. Chiefly, that comes down to the fact many golfers have only played sparingly since August. Some guesswork is required, and hope that we can use what we know to assist us in our search for a winning start to 2024.
The Plantation Course at Kapalua plays host to The Sentry (Tournament of Champions) as it has done since 1999, so a preview of the course may seem somewhat unnecessary. But, we have of course all been so focused on “growing the game” the last few years that I am sure there are lots of eager new golf fans ready to delve into their first tournament here.
First, note that this is a rare par 73 on the PGA Tour. Sitting at 7,596 yards, the course has 3 par 3s and 4 par 5s. That makes the course one of the longest on the PGA Tour.
The length is offset somewhat by many of the holes playing downhill. As such, driving distance is not the be all and end all here. Fairways are undulating, leading to many approach shots where the ball is above or below the feet. Also assisting are some of the widest fairways and the largest greens on the PGA Tour. Players can pull their driver out regularly, with % of fairways found the highest of all regular PGA Tour stops at 72.2%.
The huge green complexes averaging over 8,700 sq ft also pose less risk when approaching with a long iron than on other courses. There really lies the key to success. Finding the right area of the green. Making your fair share of putts is important too, at a course which has had a tendency to allow some low scores.
Course form at Plantation is somewhat stickier than most PGA Tour courses. If you have played well here previously, there is a higher probability that you will do so again than at comparative venues. Further adding to this phenomenon is the transient nature of this field. Typically, the Sentry field has consisted only of the winners from the previous PGA Tour season. I suspect the correlation of previous success as a predictive factor should actually receive some uptick compared to first glance.
The strongest correlation is from The Masters. That comp passes the sense check. Augusta National features some of the widest fairways on the PGA Tour, actually just wider on average than at the Plantation course Kapalua. Again, fairways found hovers above 70% for Augusta National. Many approach shots are congruent to those seen here due the undulating fairways at both. Most obvious, Jon Rahm completed the double winning both in 2023. 2022 champion Cam Smith came mighty close to winning The Masters with a 2nd and 3rd in 2021 and 2022 respectively.
Hero World Challenge host, Albany Golf Course, also is a decent guide. Played in The Bahamas and featuring a small but elite field, Albany has hosted the Hero World Challenge since 2015. The course provides parallels not only from the field assembled. The tropical and coastal elements lend itself well to Plantation. As a 7,309 yard par 72, driver is used heavily and we can see correlation through the top of the leaderboard. Rahm has won and finished runner-up at both. Morikawa has never finished worse than 7th at Plantation nor worse than 6th at Albany.
As the Sentry features a limited field, we can release our tournament preview article a little earlier in the week as there is less chance a significant weather edge will develop. Basically, the tee-times are over a shorter window. There is less of an advantage to be gained by any one player.
From our future forecasting, Thursday looks to be overcast with possibility of light showers to soften conditions and benign winds. Scoring should be good, and a fast start likely necessary to keep up with the pack. Friday should see some heavy winds arrive from midday, with gusts over 25mph. The winds remain for Saturday, while Sunday will settle. A low round should again be required on the final day of play.
Overall, the course does not pose much risk and has yielded some very low scores. The main defense for Plantation has always been the wind. We saw this in 2020 with a winning score or -14 being 20 strokes higher than the tournament record -34 set in 2022. With some wind in the forecast, I suspect a winning score in the low 20s should see the job done.
Thank you for reading my Sentry preview and tournament analysis.
If you would like access to my golf betting tips and player profiles for The Sentry, premium customers can find these here.
For the start of a new golf season, we have a special offer on our premium memberships.
We are so confident in our pricing that we guarantee this will be our best deal ever in 2024. Basically, if you see a cheaper price advertised in 2024 we will happily refund you the difference on your annual membership.
JOIN HERE NOW with an annual membership.
Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEDEAL and get 2024 for just $USD240!
That is a saving of $209.99 off our usual annual premium membership price of $449.99.
You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.
One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one on one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have
I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
In a move widely expected, given the imminent arrival of the self-imposed 31 December deadline, The Telegraph is now reporting that merger talks between LIV and PGA Tour will be extended. Obviously, this is no surprise for many. The 6 June shock announcement from the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund and the PGA Tour to lay down their weapons and move towards a reunification of golf was surprisingly light on any detail. With rumours that meetings were still to occur all through December, including a “final” meeting on the D-Day of 31 December itself, an outcome in time for 2024 seemed unlikely.
Further, contributing to the delay were antitrust investigations into the deal by the U.S. Justice Department and the emergence of the Strategic Sports Group as another potential investor. And, of course, the shock announcement that Jon Rahm had decided to sign with LIV Golf rocking the golf world. Make no bones about it; securing the scalp of Jon Rahm was a major boon for LIV Golf. It was his Masters victory which likely made the defection easier to stomach for Rahm. It granted him multiple years with guaranteed entry to all four majors. With LIV denied OWGR points, due a lack of clear pathways for earning (or losing) a card other than answering the phone, certainty of major entries was essential for Rahm. Further, it is speculated Rahm had become disillusioned with leadership from the negotiating team and, particularly, Patrick Cantlay’s emergence as a supposed leading voice in those talks.
It’s fair that golf fans have grown restless, frustrated, and despondent for the continual disruptions. So fans find themselves once again asking the question: what now for the future of professional golf?
Perhaps the most likely outcome is that at some point in early 2024 the LIV PGA Tour merger is finally confirmed. Speculation is that the new deadline will be moved to end of March, before the latest LIV defector Jon Rahm defends his green jacket at the 2024 Masters.
What the Rahm move means is the onus is now on the PGA Tour to find a solution. Losing one of the four biggest names in the sport is a golf ball sized pill to swallow. The thought of two of their flagship events, the Sentry Tournament of Champions and the Genesis Invitational at Riviera, being without their defending champion is a bad look. Rahm is one of the few names in golf that actually move the needle in viewership.
The exact shape of that deal remains to be seen. Undoubtedly, team golf would form an element. Several LIV contracts have included equity in their respective teams for their key signings. The best scenario for fans would likely see LIV move to a team only format, drawing on players from both the PGA and DP World Tours. The current LIV format is messy, confusing, and the viewership numbers show it has simply not connected with fans in the way they hoped. Separating team golf and individual golf would provide clarity.
Most importantly for fans, it would see the best golfers play together more often. Otherwise, the sport risks becoming tennis where the major championships are the only time the best all compete. Or worse, boxing where fans are left to contemplate what title really matters. The merger remains a very possible resolution. And one which could see Jon Rahm get his $USD500m cake and be able to eat it too.
Another possibility is that the PGA Tour utilise the expiration of the 31 December deadline and the DOJ investigation to back out of the LIV PGA Tour merger. The emergence of another potential investor was not expected. However, it became clear this was a preference for the PGA Tour when players gained further voices on the board and Tiger Woods made obvious his sentiments on the matter.
This comes with some problems. First, let’s be very clear. There is no viable business case for the current deals being signed for players. Yes: Jon Rahm is a very, very good golfer. But, he is simply not worth $US500m for a deal rumoured to be for 3-5 years. To put the number in perspective, the PGA Tour generates about 10% of the revenue of the NBA. Rahm’s deal alone is worth about a third of all revenue generated by golf in a year from all sources. It is roughly double the highest paid NBA player.
Unlike PIF, other entities expect and need a return on their investment. The Saudi PIF have already demonstrated they don’t necessarily care about a direct financial return from buying professional golf. More, they may benefit indirectly through sports washing and non-linear business deals made adjacent to LIV tournaments.
Therefore, it’s a reasonable assumption any money invested by Fenway will not be to the exorbitant extents PIF are offering. It could provide a temporary solution. But it is unlikely sustainable for more than a few years to compete with LIV. Whether LIV agree to allow SSG a seat at the table in a triangular agreement remains to be seen.
This possibility likely sends a shiver down the spines of golf fans. The status quo would be a huge blow to golf fans. Perhaps we were blissfully naive as fans to be able to watch all the best players regularly compete against one another. But there is a real chance we don’t see those times again for the foreseeable future.
Further, the move of Jon Rahm is likely to see others follow. It provides real legitimacy to the LIV Tour; a feather in their cap that we can expect them to roll-out frequently. It could result in a further fracturing of the best players in the game. For a somewhat niche sport that lacks global appeal, it means spreading to little butter over too much bread. The resulting reduction in viewership and subsequently revenue would be devastating to the game as we know it.
It is already the case that many arm-chair golf fans tune in only for the majors and that’s about it. The continued fractured tours would only amplify that phenomenon.
Irrespective of what deal (or lack thereof) is struck, one thing does seem certain. The concentration of funding is all pointing towards the elite of the game. That is unsustainable for the sport, resulting in less funding for those who have previously made a comfortable living from golf without setting the world alight. If you are ranked outside the top 100 in the world, the life as a professional golfer will inevitably look quite different.
In many ways, that is a real shame. The beauty of golf is that any player can win on their day. The David and Goliath stories of Rocco Mediate going against the G.O.A.T. will be all that more infrequent. Fields of 140+ players and even having a cut could well be a thing of the past. For many players, making that cut can mean the difference between keeping their tour card or returning to the lower ranks for another attempt. All of that makes for compelling storylines; the types of tales that keep bringing us back to the sport.
Want proven sharp golf betting picks and DFS tips at the best price? I write weekly articles deep-diving the PGA Tour and DP World Tour tournaments. Our tournament analysis is second-to-none, as we provide you some of the best golf betting and DFS golf tips on the planet.
Our results speak for themself.
2022 we had 16 outright winners for a return of investment of +24% on the DP World Tour and +26% on the PGA Tour.
2023 we had 15 outright winners for a return of investment of +22% on the DP World Tour and +40% on the PGA Tour.
2023 total ROI was an EPIC +33% and +929.58 units.
Using just $10 per unit, you would have made over $9,000 in 2023!
JOIN HERE NOW with an annual membership.
Use PROMO code DEEPDIVEDEAL and get 2024 for just $240!
That is a saving of $209.99 off our usual annual premium membership price of $449.99.
Not only do you gain access to all our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but you gain premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.
We are so confident this provides you with great value, that we are guaranteeing it will be our best deal of the year. If you see us advertise a cheaper deal for 2024, we will happily refund you the difference!
Sign-up now with confidence and make your 2024 a year to remember. We look forward to having you onboard.
The PGA Tour returns this week with a revamped World Wide Technology Championship. Of course, this tournament was previously held at the iconic El Cameleon Mayakoba. LIV Golf halted the streak of tournaments hosted there. LIV secured exclusive use of the course for their schedule, whatever that may eventually end up being. I’ll miss El Cameleon not just for the aesthetics, but also it’s very predictable nature of that event given the strongly weighted statistical profile it always produced. Instead, El Cardonal at Diamante is our host for the first time. This provides a new course for us to dive into and additionally the first appearance of a Tiger Woods design course on the PGA Tour.
I always enjoy seeing where the industry lands once a new golf course is added to the schedule. But it does appear, to my eye, that El Cardonal is somewhat straightforward to read. And that includes taking all World Wide Technology Championship form you previously had, burn the book, and do the complete opposite.
A second week in a row where we had multiple selections in contention only for them to fade on the final day. Our two favourite selections, who were also members of our DFS core, Thorbjorn Olesen and Ewen Ferguson finished 9th and 16th respectively. It is always frustrating to have players in contention not finish the job, but the more often you end up having multiple players in position on Sunday is what eventually leads to the great results we have enjoyed this year. Olesen missed a full place payout by one shot and Ferguson by three.
It was somewhat pleasing to see Sami Valimaki secure the victory via playoff over Jorge Campillo, given Campillo featured prominently in our shortlist until his odds were released a tad too short to represent a genuine profitable play. A substantial weather edge did develop which we got spot on. This proved particularly advantageuous for our DFS players who were able to weather stack according to our advice.
Wil Besseling was our only triple figure for the week, put up at a massive 175/1. He did well in finishing 21st. Again, just one shot short of cashing a juicy Top 20 ticket but good enough to lock in a Top 40 payout on him. Here is hoping those we get in contention at this week’s World Wide Technology Championship get the job done on Sunday.
Firstly, what jumps out from the greenskeeper notes is the average fairway width of 60 yards and greens averaging 8,400 sq feet. Both of those numbers are absurd and represent some of the highest you will see on tour all season. Tiger basically insinuated the course is essentially a resort course for weekend hacks. Eamon Lynch stated the course is “generous”. Basically, this course was never built with a PGA Tour professional in mind. It will be intriguing to see what the subsequent result is.
The course is coastal and, therefore, will play every inch of the some 7,452 yard par 72 shown on the scorecard being at sea level. The entire course is paspalum grass. This sturdy grass is rarely found on tour. Essentially, paspalum is used in hot and humid tropical conditions where the ocean is nearby. The thicker nature and higher salt tolerance make it a must in such conditions. That always has me licking my lips, as we have seen some real paspalum specialists pop up over the years.
In short, I expect a birdie fest this week. The only defense looks to be wind, and the weather forecast is so benign I’m not even providing a paragraph for it this week. You will need to go low and do so often to contend, with my suspicion being you will see a winning score close to -30 than -20. Driving distance should be particularly advantageous, but particularly performance on paspalum is weighted highly for me this week.
As mentioned, throw Mayakoba out the window. Where that test is narrow and testing, this is likely to be anything but.
My favourite course comps this week are paspalum courses where driving distance and putting have proven to be good predictive factors to success. Included in that list are Grand Reserve GC (Puerto Rico Open), Puntacana Resort & Club (Corales Puntaca Championship), and Vidanata Vallarta (Mexico Open). We have seen time and again how these tropical courses throw out the same players regardless of form, and should be a good guide this week.
The Plantation Course at Kapalua (Sentry Tournament of Champions) should also be a good guide for you this week. Along with being a coastal and tropical track, it features fairways and greens complexes as large as we see here. Additionally, El Cardonal does feature some significant elevation changes and undulations. However, do be cautious when reading form at Plantation. Given the field typically only features 30 or so golfers, a finish of 21st is likely nothing to write home about.
Emiliano Grillo
2.5pt E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Akshay Bhatia
2.5pt E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Cameron Champ – Your World Wide Techonology Championship Favourite
2.5pt E/W +5500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Do check your odds on Champ, as he opened at 80/1 in places.
Vince Whaley
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)
Erik Van Rooyen
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +300 (Bet365)
Brandon Wu
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)
Nate Lashley
1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)
Kelly Kraft – Your World Wide Techonology Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 40 +190 (Bet365)
Thank you reading our World Wide Technology Championship preview article. You can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!
Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching. Link your premium channel and Discord on the website, as we often have exclusive betting plays within our Discord channels.
At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.
