Well, I’ll be the first to say it. WHAT. A. WEEK. We carried on our hot streak, having already successfully tipped Ludvig Aberg to win the Genesis Invitational at 22/1 the week prior, with yet another outright winner! This time, it came on the DP World Tour with Jacques Kruyswijk winning the Magical Kenya Open at 66/1. Not only that, but we also had the golfer who placed 3rd, 4th, and 7th on our card! It was our most profitable week of the year, with full details in the tweet below. All this bodes incredibly well for this week’s preview of the Cognizant Classic, with it’s unique profile and a key comp course providing excellent guidance for this week’s event.
At the Mexico Open, our top selection Alex Smalley (30/1 with 8 places) looked the best candidate hitting the final round. On the front nine, he was just two shots off the lead and a potential to make a charge at the title. All came undone on the par 5 12th. After being greenside in two, a dreadful chip shot led to an untimely bogey. It really took the wind out of his sails, leading to another poor chip on the par 5 14th and a score of +4 on the 6 hole stretch.
Smalley wound up in 10th, just missing the place money at +600. Nicolai Hojgaard secured a full place finishing 8th at +800 along with a Top 20 at +240. Sigg and Highsmith also secured us Top 20s at +290 and +310 respectively.
We begin the Florida Swing this week on the PGA Tour, as we preview PGA National the host course of the Cognizant Classic. This golf course has hosted the tournament since 2007 (formerly the Honda Classic) along with the Ryder Cup in 1983, the 1987 PGA Championship, and the Senior PGA Championship from 1982-2000. In short, we have plenty of data to go off this week.
Firstly, the move from the West to East coast sees a change in grass type to Bermuda on the greens. As such, you may want to focus more on ball-striking metrics in recent tournaments and identify potential value leverage opportunities for players who generally putt better on this grass type. This will prevalent in upcoming Florida tournaments such as the Arnold Palmer Invitational, The Players Championship, and the Valspar Championship.
Off the tee, premium is given to driving accuracy over distance. With water in play for 15 out of the 18 holes, trouble can be found readily if you aren’t dialed in with the driver. If you can have both accuracy and distance, this is of benefit. However, the key isn’t on bomb and gouge but, instead, restrained power.
Another key statistics at PGA National is SG: Approach. Particularly, we see a huge concentration of shots for SG: APP 150-200 yards. On average, nine approaches will occur from this small yardage bucket. When you consider that the three par 5s will often result in an approach shot of 200+, along with two par 3s over 200 yards, you gain an understanding of why this approach range is pivotal to finding success in the Cognizant Classic.
Over the years of the Cognizant Classic, we have seen a number of players who have found success in The Open Championship then play well in this preview to the Florida Swing. That may initially seem odd, as few aesthetic links can be found between tropical Florida and the commonly frigid conditions of a United Kingdom “summer”.
I believe the explanation here is two-fold. One, Florida often experiences higher than average wind speeds compared to common PGA Tour spots. This is commonly a factor at The Open (or British Open, if you insist). Secondly, PGA National asks similar questions in a different way. If you stray to far off the tee around PGA National, chances are you will find the water. Similarly, at The Open you will likely find either a pot bunker or extremely thick fescue grass and gorse bushes. Either way, this often results in a penalty of a stroke from an unplayable lie or inability to advance the ball.
Other good guides to PGA National can be found at the other Florida courses, particularly the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort (accuracy and Bermuda greens) and TPC Sawgrass (accuracy, water hazards, similar approach metrics, and Bermuda greens).
On the Korn Ferry Tour, the LECOM Suncoast Classic is also played nearby and offers similar aesthetics. Benny An, Andrew Novak, Maverick McNealy, and Mark Hubbard connect these courses nicely.
Well, as promised, there is one particular golf which displays an extremely strong correlation to PGA National. And, of all places, it is a golf course in Scotland. That is the host of last year’s Open Championship, Royal Troon.
Firstly, we should discount the eventual Champion Golfer of the Year Xander Schauffele. He has only played at PGA National once. It was his first season on the PGA Tour in 2017 and arrived following four missed cut, a 60th, and 66th. Obviously, he developed into quite a different player to his sole appearance here.
The past three winners of The Open Championship when hosted at Royal Troon were Justin Leonard, Mark Calcavecchia, and Todd Hamilton. All three have also won at PGA National! Further, Todd Hamilton was arguably one of the biggest shocks in major championship history. He was priced at a whopping 500/1 to win the event. He only won one other PGA Tour tournament in his career. You guessed it, at PGA National.
Looking at last year’s leaderboard from The Open Championship, here is a brief breakdown of the top finishers and their respective links to PGA National:
| Golfer | The 152nd Open Championship 2024 | PGA National Success |
| Xander Schauffele | 1st | Only played once in 2017, his debut season |
| Justin Rose | 2nd | 3 x Top 5s |
| Billy Horschel | 2nd | 5/8 recent starts 16th or better, including 3 x Top 10s |
| Thriston Lawrence | 4th | Never played |
| Russell Henley | 5th | Won (2014), 5 x Top 20s |
| Shane Lowry | 6th | Last 3 consecutive Top 5s (2-5-4) |
| Jon Rahm | 7th | Never played |
| Sungjae Im | 7th | Won (2020), 8th in 2021 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 7th | Never played |
| Matthew Jordan | 10th | Never played |
| Adam Scott | 10th | Won (2016), 5/6 recent starts 14th or better |
| Daniel Brown | 10th | Never played |
| Jason Day | 13th (22nd in 2016) | Only played once in 2008, his debut season |
| Alex Noren | 13th | 3/5 recent starts 9th or better |
| Byeong Hun An | 13th | 4/6 recent starts 21st or better, including a 4th and 5th |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 16th | 2nd in 2020, 5/6 made cuts |
| Collin Morikawa | 16th | Never played |
| John Catlin | 16th | Never played |
| Dean Burmester | 19th | Never played |
| Daniel Hillier | 19th | Never played |
| Shubhankar Sharma | 19th | Never played |
| Sepp Straka | 22nd | Won (2022), 5th in 2023 |
| Ewen Ferguson | 22nd | Never played |
| Padraig Harrington | 22nd | Won (2015) |
Essentially, the top 24 golfers had found success at PGA National if they had played it more than once. It is rare to see two courses with such strong correlation.
This extended to players with little form at other Open Championship venues. Even 2015 Honda Classic winner, Padraig Harrington, put together a solid week despite being aged 52!
We used this correlation to great effect at The 152nd Open Championship, resulting in our most profitable betting week of 2024 gaining +174.89 units.
There looks to be little chance of a significant weather wave advantage developing at this year’s Cognizant Classic. There will likely be some overnight rain on Wednesday and, combined with lower gusts Thursday AM, should see those going off first on Thursday have the best of the day. This is especially pertinent for First Round Leader bets.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday are all forecast to play very similar to each other. Prevailing winds should be sustained in high single digits. Gusts will average between 12-18 mph but will be consistent all day.
Thank you for reading my Cognizant Classic preview and tournament analysis. You can access all my golf betting tips and DFS advice in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord and website.
Every week, our resident experts compete against YOU as part of Team Audience in a live PGA DFS draft. Rewatch this week’s episode of the PGA Draftcast below as we preview the Cognizant Classic from a DFS perspective.
You can watch the episode here
It’s always a pleasure to cover PGA Tour golf tournaments for you, but even more so after a huge win! Ludvig Aberg duly won for us at last week’s Signature Event at the Genesis Invitational paying 22/1. As we delve into this week’s Mexico Open, it was wonderful to see so much success in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord.
All your DeepDiveGolf links and promo codes are here.
If you don’t already have a Premium membership and would like full access to our betting tips, simply use promo code DEEPDIVEGOLF at checkout to receive 50% off all Premium categories!
You can sign up today here
You’ll gain access to all of our premium golf coverage with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports covers. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.
Now into its 4th rendition held at this course, we should have a fair understanding of how the course usually plays. And there are some key indicators you can preview which are beneficial to playing well at the Mexico Open.
Vidanta Vallarta is a resort-style golf course. Greg Norman never designed this with any thought to how a PGA Tour golfer may approach the venue. The rough is non-existent and any wind provides the only modicum of protection. Essentially, you will need to score low this week to find yourself with any chance at contention.
Playing as a par 71 at 7,456 yards, pound for pound it is one of the longer tracks on the PGA Tour. Par 4 and par 5 length are the longest on the PGA Tour at a whopping 495 yards on average. The course is at sea level, so it will play the entirety of that distance.
Unsurprisingly, for our Mexico Open preview driving distance is ranked highly. However, the yardage goes further than that simplistic answer.
This also has significant implications for approach shots, particularly for SG: APP from 150-200 and 200+ yards. You will see a high concentration number of long-iron approach shots this week. 65% of all iron shots will occur from over 150+ yards. That includes an additional 2 shots from 150-200 yards and, on average, an additional 1.5 shots from 200+ yards compared to a typical PGA Tour venue.
Finally, no Mexico Open preview would be complete without speaking about the grass. Vidanta Vallarta features paspalum grass tee-to-green. This sticky grass is used rarely in the PGA Tour. It is found in seaside golf courses, as it is resistant to salt air and water. It tends to be very slow compared to Poa Annua, Bermuda, or Bentgrass.
Several “Princes of Paspalum” have developed over the years. A huge advantage can be gained in identifying them. This has provided us with huge success at the Mexico Open over the years.
One of the best tournaments to use as a guide for your Mexico Open preview is the Corales Puntacana Championship. Corales Golf Club is another long golf course playing at 7,670 yards for a par 72, with a large concentration of long-iron approach shots, and features paspalum.
The most recent host of the World Wide Technology Championship, El Cardonal, is a 7,452 yard par 72 in Mexico with paspalum. Grand Reserve Country Club, host of the Puerto Rico Open, is a 7,506 yards par 72 again featuring paspalum. Tony Finau is a winner at both events and Akshay Bhatia links these nicely.
The benefit of utilizing these comp courses goes beyond featuring similar topography as other exposed tropical golf courses. Additionally, they are more likely to feature cross-over players given they are typically weaker field events to the more flagship PGA Tour stops.
To find a way to differentiate yourself this week, consider looking at courses used on the Korn Ferry Tour and DP World Tour. The Korn Ferry Tour has two events in the Bahamas, in Panama, in Chile, and the Astara Championship in Colombia two weeks ago which can provide guidance.
Al Hamra should provide a nice course comp as should Royal Golf Club Bahrain from the DP World Tour. Both long tracks have been dominated by bombers, featuring large Paspalum greens with little danger off the tee.
Finally, course history has not been very correlated to predicting success here. This can be partially attributed to the Mexico Open being a lesser field than other tournaments that surround it on the schedule.
With next to no wind in the forecast this week, the sole possible defense of this golf course is notably absent. Expect the golfers to take advantage as a result and score low.
For purposes of First Round Leader (FRL) bets, I recommend looking at the early morning tee times. Any moisture in the ground is likely to be there first thing before drying out during the day. Further, is any winds are to arrive it will be in the afternoon as is common in golf courses next to the ocean with onshore breezes.
As always, in The WinDaily Sports Premium Discord channel, we provide weather updates right up to the first tee times using premium weather modeling. To make sure you have the best information is essential to finding success. This is particularly important in DFS, where the difference in one golfer making the cut to play the weekend has a sizeable impact.
Thank you for reading my Mexico Open preview and tournament analysis. You can access all my golf betting tips and DFS advice in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord and website.
If you want to receive superb DFS and betting advice in golf as well as all other major sports, WinDailySports is the place for you. Undoubtedly, we are already the best value in the game. However, today you can receive a further 50% off our Premium memberships by using the promo code at checkout “DEEPDIVEGOLF“.
JOIN HERE NOW
Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEGOLF and claim your 50% off today!
Not only will you be receiving tremendous returns, you are also supporting me and the whole WinDaily Sports team in producing great content both Premium and Free.
You’ll gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports covers. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.
One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have
I look forward to personally welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many wins with you in 2025!
At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.
