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World Wide Technology Championship Betting Picks & Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

El Cardonal plays host to the World Wide Techonology Cahmpionship for the first time.

The PGA Tour returns this week with a revamped World Wide Technology Championship. Of course, this tournament was previously held at the iconic El Cameleon Mayakoba. LIV Golf halted the streak of tournaments hosted there. LIV secured exclusive use of the course for their schedule, whatever that may eventually end up being. I’ll miss El Cameleon not just for the aesthetics, but also it’s very predictable nature of that event given the strongly weighted statistical profile it always produced. Instead, El Cardonal at Diamante is our host for the first time. This provides a new course for us to dive into and additionally the first appearance of a Tiger Woods design course on the PGA Tour.

I always enjoy seeing where the industry lands once a new golf course is added to the schedule. But it does appear, to my eye, that El Cardonal is somewhat straightforward to read. And that includes taking all World Wide Technology Championship form you previously had, burn the book, and do the complete opposite.

Qatar Masters Recap

A second week in a row where we had multiple selections in contention only for them to fade on the final day. Our two favourite selections, who were also members of our DFS core, Thorbjorn Olesen and Ewen Ferguson finished 9th and 16th respectively. It is always frustrating to have players in contention not finish the job, but the more often you end up having multiple players in position on Sunday is what eventually leads to the great results we have enjoyed this year. Olesen missed a full place payout by one shot and Ferguson by three.

It was somewhat pleasing to see Sami Valimaki secure the victory via playoff over Jorge Campillo, given Campillo featured prominently in our shortlist until his odds were released a tad too short to represent a genuine profitable play. A substantial weather edge did develop which we got spot on. This proved particularly advantageuous for our DFS players who were able to weather stack according to our advice.

Wil Besseling was our only triple figure for the week, put up at a massive 175/1. He did well in finishing 21st. Again, just one shot short of cashing a juicy Top 20 ticket but good enough to lock in a Top 40 payout on him. Here is hoping those we get in contention at this week’s World Wide Technology Championship get the job done on Sunday.

El Cardonal Course Analysis

Firstly, what jumps out from the greenskeeper notes is the average fairway width of 60 yards and greens averaging 8,400 sq feet. Both of those numbers are absurd and represent some of the highest you will see on tour all season. Tiger basically insinuated the course is essentially a resort course for weekend hacks. Eamon Lynch stated the course is “generous”. Basically, this course was never built with a PGA Tour professional in mind. It will be intriguing to see what the subsequent result is.

The course is coastal and, therefore, will play every inch of the some 7,452 yard par 72 shown on the scorecard being at sea level. The entire course is paspalum grass. This sturdy grass is rarely found on tour. Essentially, paspalum is used in hot and humid tropical conditions where the ocean is nearby. The thicker nature and higher salt tolerance make it a must in such conditions. That always has me licking my lips, as we have seen some real paspalum specialists pop up over the years.

In short, I expect a birdie fest this week. The only defense looks to be wind, and the weather forecast is so benign I’m not even providing a paragraph for it this week. You will need to go low and do so often to contend, with my suspicion being you will see a winning score close to -30 than -20. Driving distance should be particularly advantageous, but particularly performance on paspalum is weighted highly for me this week.

World Wide Technology Championship Course Comps

As mentioned, throw Mayakoba out the window. Where that test is narrow and testing, this is likely to be anything but.

My favourite course comps this week are paspalum courses where driving distance and putting have proven to be good predictive factors to success. Included in that list are Grand Reserve GC (Puerto Rico Open), Puntacana Resort & Club (Corales Puntaca Championship), and Vidanata Vallarta (Mexico Open). We have seen time and again how these tropical courses throw out the same players regardless of form, and should be a good guide this week.

The Plantation Course at Kapalua (Sentry Tournament of Champions) should also be a good guide for you this week. Along with being a coastal and tropical track, it features fairways and greens complexes as large as we see here. Additionally, El Cardonal does feature some significant elevation changes and undulations. However, do be cautious when reading form at Plantation. Given the field typically only features 30 or so golfers, a finish of 21st is likely nothing to write home about.

World Wide Technology Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

Emiliano Grillo
2.5pt E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Akshay Bhatia
2.5pt E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Cameron Champ – Your World Wide Techonology Championship Favourite
2.5pt E/W +5500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Do check your odds on Champ, as he opened at 80/1 in places.

Vince Whaley
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Erik Van Rooyen
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +300 (Bet365)

Brandon Wu
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Nate Lashley
1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Kelly Kraft – Your World Wide Techonology Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 40 +190 (Bet365)

Summary

Thank you reading our World Wide Technology Championship preview article. You can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching. Link your premium channel and Discord on the website, as we often have exclusive betting plays within our Discord channels.

2 years ago 0 comments

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Qatar Masters Picks & Advice: Everything You Need to Know About Doha Golf Club

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Doha Golf Club again plays host to our Qatar Masters picks

With just the one tournament this week, the eyes of the golfing world turn to the Qatar Masters on the DP World Tour. We have had an excellent record in national opens this season. We have correctly included the winner in our selections for the Canadian Open (Taylor 66/1), US Open (Clark 80/1), British Masters (Hillier 80/1), Irish Open (Norrman 45/1), and the Open de Espana (Pavon 80/1). An excellent omen for our Qatar Masters picks!

This tournament has shifted about a bit over the past few years. Originally held as part of the “Desert Swing” in January, it shifted to March, yet now pops up on the calendar at the end of October. It should not make too much difference to the golfer profile we search for this week, but more on this in our weather analysis. It does, however, mean that the tournament takes on added significance as the final event of the regular schedule. This is the last chance for many players to secure their DP World Tour playing rights for 2024. It is also a final opportunity to qualify for the Nedbank Challenge and DP World Tour Championship in the coming month. I’m looking forward to attending the latter in Dubai, so I will make sure to post some pictures in the Win Daily Discord for all our premium members.

ZOZO Championship Recap

We had the 36 hole leader on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour for another week with multiple options in contention. At the ZOZO Championship, Beau Hossler once again put himself in prime position. Our Premium members will know we have been on Hossler for the past three weeks. Notably, his approach play is showing some great improvement. Typically a long driver of the golf ball with excellent putting, addressing the weakest part of his game will see him win on the PGA Tour in the near future. He eventually finished 2nd for a full place payout at equivalent odds of +600.

That was behind an impressive Morikawa, who ended his dry spell in emphatic fashion. I’ll admit I did hold concerns for Morikawa in the high winds forecast in rounds 1 and 2. To some extent, that did come to fruition. Morikawa was back at even par four holes into his 3rd round. He then miraculously played his final 32 holes at 14 under to win by some margin. We also had Cam Davis, who was 8th at the 36 hole mark and eventually just missed out on place money in 12th. Xander was 4th at halfway, but a dreadful weekend saw him tumble well out of contention.

Andalucia Masters Recap

The DP World Tour remained in Spain for the Andalucia Masters. With a new course, some guess work was required. We got it spot on for the weather draw, with a decent weather edge for those avoiding the highest winds. Our key course comp of Al Hamra also proved true, with winner Adrian Meronk having finished 4th and 6th in his two appearances at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship.

Despite the course favouring longer hitters, it was the accurate Spaniard Adrian Otaegui who held the 36 hole lead for us. He was well in contention entering Sunday, including playing his first 48 holes bogey free despite high winds. To his credit, he pushed hard for victory firing at every pin. That is all you can really ask for a golfer in such position, although it did eventually cost us another full place payout finishing 9th.

Our 140/1 selection Adri Arnaus also came out firing in the 3rd round, shooting up the leaderboard to join Otaegui in the lead on Saturday. He faded slightly in the final round, but a 19th place finish was good enough for a partial Top 20 payout and a Top 40 hit. We also cashed a Top 20 bet on Sebastian Soderberg in 19th, again reduced due to dead-heat rules.

Doha Golf Club Course Analysis

Heading into our Qatar Masters picks, Doha Golf Club plays host once again. This course has played host to this tournament since 1998, except in 2020 and 2021 when the event was held at neighbouring Education City Golf Club. Therefore, it is important to ensure you read course history rather than tournament history when analyzing your data.

Course form also proves to be more “sticky” here than other venues. You should give more weighting to prior performance here than on other courses. Basically, if golfers have played well here before they are statistically more likely to do so again. Conversely, do not be surprised if players in form don’t carry that with them to Doha have they struggled here previously.

I’ve previously referred to this course as one of the “faux links” we see on the DP World Tour. The course is designed by Peter Harradine, but it is the work of Kyle Phillips that provides the most guidance. Phillips designed Kingsbarns, one of the regular courses from the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship rotation. He also created other faux links courses Yas Links, in Abu Dhabi, and Bernardus, an inland but exposed links course hosting the KLM Open. The former also has paspalum grass. Paspalum is often found in ocean side and tropical courses, due to it’s sturdy nature and higher salt tolerance.

The key reason for all this is wind. The course is very exposed, with virtually no protection from the winds. Fairways and greens are undulating and well bunkered. Certainly, the course demands a specific skillset you don’t often see for the majority of the season.

Course Comps for our Qatar Masters Picks

For all the aforementioned reasons, our course comps are dominated by links form. The Alfred Dunhill Links and, to some extent, The Open Championship have been good guides here. Likewise, the Kyle Phillips designed Yas Links and Bernardus provide good correlations to Doha Golf Club.

Yet it is another Phillips design which is perhaps the best course comp to guide your Qatar Masters picks. Verdura Golf Club hosted the Sicilian Open on four occasions. However, the correlation is significant.

Alvaro Quiros has won at both courses. Michael Lorenzo-Vera finished 2nd there in his one appearance and has a record in Doha of 30-59-4-10-2. Thorbjorn Olesen won at Verdura (having also won and finished runner-up at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship). He has a 2nd and 3rd at Doha GC. Chris Wood, who was 5th as an amateur at The Open then 3rd the next year, finished runner-up to Olesen at Verdura and then won in Doha the next year. Joakim Lagergren went the other way. He finished runner-up at the Qatar Masters and then won at Verdura the following here.

Education City form shouldn’t be completely thrown away, Campillo having won on that course and holding a good record on this track. Likewise, general form in the Middle East is seen as a positive for our Qatar Masters Picks.

Weather for our Qatar Masters Picks

As mentioned, the tournament has shifted from March to October this year. Conditions should present quite similar. Both March and October are in the shoulder season, with temperatures consistently in the range of 30-35C (high 80s-low 90s for those metrically opposed).

What is also consistent is the wind. All coastal Middle East golf courses experience a sea breeze from early afternoon. As the land heats up, air rises and creates a lower pressure area. This causes the air above the ocean to move onshore. When I was learning to play golf in Dubai, you could almost predict when these winds would hit to the minute. The impact was also severe, and playing longer holes into the high winds became very difficult.

This week, Thursday morning provides for the lowest winds of the two rounds prior to the cut. Friday morning will also present better conditions than the afternoon. However, some moderate winds will start building a couple of hours earlier than Thursday. Although no significant weather edge exists for our Qatar Masters picks, general ability to play in the wind is essential to success here.

Qatar Masters Picks

Suggested Staking

Thorbjorn Olesen
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Ewen Ferguson – Your Qatar Masters Picks Favourite
2.5pt E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Adrian Otaegui
2.5pt E/W +3300 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Sebastian Soderberg
2pt E/W +6000 (William Hill with 8 palces 1/5 odds)

Jeff Winther
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +350 (TAB)

Michael Lorenzo-Vera
1pt E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Matthew Jordan – Your Qatar Masters Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +335 (Unibet)

Will Besseling
0.5pt E/W +17500 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +650 (TAB)
And
2pt Top 40 +240 (TAB)

Summary

Thank you reading our Qatar Masters picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching. Make sure you are linked in to your premium channel, as we often have exclusive betting plays within the Discord channels.

2 years ago 0 comments

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ZOZO Championship Picks: Everything You Need To Know About Narashino CC

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Narashino Country Club plays host to our ZOZO Championship Picks

ANOTHER ONE. Another week and yet another winner from the pages of DeepDiveGolf! Mathieu Pavon completed a relatively stress free wire-to-wire victory paying a juicy 80/1. In a quirky stat, we’ve had a ridiculous run of winners at national opens. We’ve successfully picked the winner at the Canadian Open (Nick Taylor 66/1), US Open (Wyndham Clark 80/1), Irish Open (Vincent Norrman 45/1), and now Mathieu Pavon at 80/1 for the Open de Espana. You could convince me to add Daniel Hillier winning the British Masters at 80/1 to the list. And, although this is not a national open (the Japan Open Golf Championship was actually last week), we are in fine form for our ZOZO Championship picks.

I feel even more aggrieved now that we tipped Ryo Hisatsune in 3 out of the 4 tournaments before he won the Open de France at 100/1. If you’ve followed our suggested staking in 2023 using $10 per unit, then you are over $9,000 in profit.

The first many will notice about Narashino Country Club is that there are two greens on every hole. This is common in Japan and comes with many benefits. Firstly, having two greens allows one to be restored or undergo aeration whilst the other is played. Secondly, it allows variety for course members and regulars. Finally, in a country like Japan which has extremely hot and humid summers then snow in winter, it would be used by having different grass types on each green for the seasons.

https://x.com/PGATOUR/status/1187072948152061952?s=20

Narashino Country Club Course Analysis

Fortunately for analysis this week, the course will mostly use just one of the greens. Any shots that end on the other green will be eligible for free relief. However, do note we have seen them previously alternate between the greens on a few select holes.

The ZOZO Championship and Narashino CC makes for a tricky format and course to handicap. The usual strokes gained data are not recorded without trackman travelling to Japan. A reduced field and no cut also adds a wrinkle to the format for our ZOZO Championship picks. Basically, with all golfers playing 4 rounds the cream tends to eventually rise to the top. Analysis of previous leaderboards here and from the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, good drive percentage should be a useful stat this week. It doesn’t necessarily matter if you are long off the tee or straight, just that you do one. If you can have both, that is certainly a bonus but reduces the pool largely to the elite.

Another key to our guidance this week is approach from 150-200 yards. Golfers will see 1.5-2 strokes more within this bracket each round, depending on driving distance. This means roughly 60% of approach will fall within this yardage. Looking through prior leaderboards, players who have played well here are also high in the rankings within this yardage.

Tree-lined fairways are carpeted with zoysiagrass. This unique grass is polarizing and seen rarely on the PGA Tour. Some golfers have remarked they like that this sturdy grass acts like your balls is teed up. Others golfers have lamented that the grass can produce flyers.

Finally, a solid short game is imperative. With a winning score likely to end in the -15 to -18 range again, key up and downs are key to maintaining momentum to compile a score.

Course Comps for our ZOZO Championship Picks

Last year’s winner, Keegan Bradley, provides a guide to course comps for our ZOZO Championship picks. Prior to his victory, he had also recorded a 7th and 13th in his three starts. TPC River Highlands, where he also won the Travelers Championship, has formlines as well as using similar bentgrass greens. Brendan Steele was runner up here on his first look and has 9 Top 25s at TPC River Highlands from 12 starts.

Bradley is also a winner at Firestone Country Club (former host of the Bridgestone Invitiational). Tiger Woods holds a ridiculous record there, and won on his sole start here in 2019 for perhaps his last PGA Tour victory. I dislike using Tiger as a guide, as he simply won almost everywhere he played. But 2019 Tiger was quite a different proposition, so it does seem relevant he won on first look here.

I also generally dislike using Augusta as a comp, as it obviously attracts the best field in golf. However, treelined fairways and undulations visually provide a comparison. Xander Schauffele won the Olympics gold medal in Tokyo 2020 and has finished in the top 10 at The Masters in 50% of his starts.

Xander is also a winner at The Old White TPC (former host of the Greenbrier Classic). Sebastian Munoz provides further links, finishing 4th at Narashino Country Club and a record of 3rd and 7th at The Old White TPC.

Finally, other zoysia fairway courses of TPC Southwind and TPC Craig Ranch can be used for approach play on this unique grass type.

Weather Forecast for our ZOZO Championship Picks

Weather could well be a factor across the first two days for our ZOZO Championship picks. Thursday morning has a small chance of fog delays and will be cold. Winds will pick up throughout the day, with gusts around 20mph from early afternoon. However, prevailing winds will remain relatively moderate.

Friday morning will again experience lower winds, before building substantially later in the afternoon. Winds could reach as high as 25mph prevailing with gusts above 40mph.

Although there are condensed tee times with the reduced field, there remains potential for a weather edge there. Those going off earliest on Friday morning should experience an advantage for at least 9 holes. If any fog delays do occur or there is a substantial temperature difference on Thursday, we could potentially see the edge move across both the first two rounds. I certainly don’t see the edge being sufficient to completely rule out a player from your player pool. However, it should play a factor in your decisions this week. Especially, in situations when deciding between two similar players for DFS purposes.

ZOZO Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

Xander Schauffele – Your ZOZO Championship Picks Favourite
5pt E/W +800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Cam Davis
4pt E/W +2000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Beau Hossler
2pt E/W +4000 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)

Tom Hoge – Your ZOZO Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +200 (Unibet)

Michael Kim
0.5pt E/W +10000 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +240 (William Hill)

Summary

Thank you reading our ZOZO Championship picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

2 years ago 0 comments

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Shriners Children’s Open Picks: Everything You Need to Know About TPC Summerlin

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

TPC Summerlin plays host to the Shriners Children's Open picks

Time flies when you’re having fun (or getting old). It’s 12 months since I was meeting up with our fellow WinDaily Sports superstar and fellow golf data nerd Spencer Aguiar (aka @TeeOffSports). We had an awesome time exploring TPC Summerlin and watching our Shriners Children’s Open picks during the first round in 2022. Work and child commitments meant I needed to fly back to New Zealand after a whistle stop 16 hours in Vegas.

But before leaving, we did get to witness one of the greatest shots of the year from Sungjae Im. We were standing by the green waiting for the group to play up and could not even see Im down in the waste area. He managed to produce the spectacular:

The Week Just Been

It was a week of close calls for us on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour last week. At the Sanderson Farms Championship, our 200/1 selection Zecheng Dou was close to another first round leader. He bogeyed the last to miss out on the places at equivalent odds of +4000. We did however cash Top 20 and Top 40 bets on him at +500 and +200. We also cash a Top 40 on Vince Whaley at +170 and a Top 20 for Erik Van Rooyen +233 (reduced under dead-heat rules).

Over in Europe, sadly the Alfred Dunhill Links was heavily affected by adverse weather conditions. Heavy flooding saw two days abandoned and the tournament reduced to 54 holes with all professionals playing the three rounds. Matthew Southgate surged into the lead, only to be caught down the stretch by Matthew Fitzpatrick. His 2nd place finish cashes a full place at +1320 and our Top 20 at +260. Another huge priced outside Jeff Winther was our next near miss. Selected at 250/1, he finished just one shot outside the a place payout at +5000 in 10th. We cash a Top 20 at +750 and a Top 40 at +320.

All up, we finish the week with a small profit and a tinge of what could have been.

TPC Summerlin Course Analysis

Host for our Shriners Children’s Open picks is TPC Summerlin, an oasis in the desert of Las Vegas. The course plays as a par 71 at 7,255 yards. I’ve seen a lot of rhetoric, as we often do, that driving distance is an advantage here. Yes, driving distance is always an advantage at any golf course. Statistically, driving distance doesn’t have a massive predictive factor on final result here. We have seen both long drivers and accurate drivers find success here. Part of this is as a result of the course playing shorter than it’s yardage due to the high altitude and thinner air.

Approach does see an uptick for shots under 150 yards, with an additional two approach shots within this range. This is a combination of no truly drivable par 4 and of the 3 par 5s one is a long 606 yards and another features a gnarly second shot over water if going for it.

Primarily we see a significant uptick in SG: Putting and, secondly, SG: Around-The-Green. This correlates with an increase in bogey avoidance and birdie % here. It is no surprise that Cantlay has found such success on this course, having been in the top 5 on the PGA Tour for birdie percentage for the last couple of years.

Course Comps for our Shriners Children’s Open Picks

The somewhat generic nature of TPC Summerlin is also reflected in the course comps this week. No one course stands out as a common thread between the course analysis and performance here. Where we do see correlation is on the leaderboards on other desert courses.

The American Express is played in the desert of neighbouring California. This has the added benefit of seeing an uptick in approach from under 150 yards and a heavy emphasis on putting performance. It often turns into a birdie fest and, as Rahm famously said, “a f*cking putting contest.”

For similar reasons, TPC San Antonio and the Valero Texas Open shows some correlation to TPC Summerlin leaderboards. Another desert course where the driver is somewhat neautralized, but with a heavy emphasis on the short game particularly around the green.

Finally, don’t discount form from the DP World Tour at the Dubai Desert Classic. The tournament always attracts one of the strongest fields on the DP to -World Tour. It is a Rolex Series event and they also pay generous appearance fees. Scores to win there typically range from -18 to -25.

Weather for our Shriners Children’s Open Picks

There appears to be little weather edge to take advantage of this week. Thursday should see winds decrease as the day goes on. However, this will be offset somewhat by the greens firming up and getting faster in the Nevada sun. Friday morning will see winds marginally lower than in the afternoon.

Overall, I would give a small weighting on players starting Thursday PM/Friday AM for the first two rounds. The edge is not substantial. Therefore, I would recommend only building a few stacks playing across those tee-times but certainly wouldn’t remove players from my player pool exclusively due to the weather forecast.

Shriners Children’s Open Picks

Suggested Staking

Adam Schenk – Your Shriners Children’s Open Picks Favourite
3pt E/W +3300 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Davis Thompson
2.5pt E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Lucas Herbert
2pt E/W +4500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Beau Hossler
2pt E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +300

Chesson Hadley – Your Shriners Children’s Open Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +375

Erik Van Rooyen
1.5pt E/W +15000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +500 (Bet365)
And
4pt Top 40 +175 (Bet365)

Summary

Thank you reading our Shriners Children’s Open picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

2 years ago 0 comments

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Open de France Picks: Everything You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

The spectacular Le Golf National plays host to our Open de France picks

Having selected winner Vincent Norrman at 45/1 and Ryan Fox in 3rd at 40/1 at the Irish Open, it was a week of what could have been at the BMW PGA Championship. Undoubtedly, my fellow countryman Ryan Fox was a deserving winner. The composure he displayed down the final stretch was incredibly compelling. Despite the huge number of arguably bigger names breathing down his neck, Fox recovered from a triple bogey on the 3rd hole to play the final 15 at 8-under. He continues to impress in the big moments and an even bigger 2024 could well be imminent. Could he upset our Open de France picks?

A couple of those bigger names were our headline selections, with Tommy Fleetwood 14/1 and Tom Kim 25/1 sitting just one and two shots back respectively. They both managed to capitulate over the course of the final round, but it was pleasing as always to have live chances well in contention. We also cashed Top 40 bets on Shubhankar Sharma (150/1) and Julien Brun (180/1). It has also been a great year for us at the national opens, having tipped the winner at the US Open, Canadian Open, Irish Open, and British Masters. Can we follow up with a winner at the golf French Open? What a fantastic back-drop to set the scene for our Cazoo Open de France picks!

Course Analysis of the Albatros Course at Le Golf National

With another Ryder Cup just a week away, the DP World Tour returns to a former Ryder Cup venue for our Open de France picks. Le Golf National hosted the 2018 Ryder Cup, where Team Europe handed Team USA a thumping 17.5-10.5. Part of the reason can be found in the course on display this week.

This quirky course has historically provided a stern test. The event moved to October, which hosted the last two renditions in 2019 and 2022 (2020 and 2021 cancelled due to COVID-19). In those events, longer drivers had done well without excluding those lacking distance off the tee. My suspicion is that this tournament will play more as it used to, with a well documented heat wave across Europe providing the firmer conditions previously seen when this was played in summer.

Meanwhile, back to that 2018 Ryder Cup walloping, the Europe victory came down to the fact this is a tricky and positional course which nullifies driving ability. That was frustrating for the Americans, who typical strength of longer driving distance was mitigated by the elements they faced. And with a fast course presented this week, I suspect we face more of the same here for our Open de France picks.

As the multitude of water hazards and unique mounds narrowing the fairways, you’ll see players reaching for a lofted wood or iron off the tee here more often. The key then lies in driving accuracy and precise iron play. Despite the slight reversion towards driving distance the last two years, it is hard to deny Migliozzi, Rasmus Hojgaard, and Colsaerts can absolute flush their irons on their day.

Other than that, avoiding the big mistakes and plotting your way around the course is key with a winning score of -12 to -16 likely.

Comp Courses for our Open de France Picks

Firstly, I’ll note that course history is stickier here than most. Play well here, you have a significantly better chance of doing so again. If you’ve hated the course, you could be in for a tough week. Much of this comes down to the unique nature of this course, which seems rather polarizing for many players.

Celtic Manor provides extremely strong form lines and it is easy to see why. Another Ryder Cup stadium course hosting in 2010, the course features numerous water hazards and narrowing fairways. And, although Celtic Manor admittedly plays longer, that recipe is what our Open de France picks will face this week. Even visually the courses look relatively similar.

Form lines can be found through Graeme McDowall, Alex Noren, and Thongchai Jaidee have won at both golf courses. Thomas Pieters holds a 3rd at both. Jamie Donaldson a 6th and 4th. Uihlein and Sterne have a runner up at both courses. Luiten has won at Celtic Manor and finished 9th and 11th here. Colsaerts had a 4th and 18th at Celtic Manor and won at Le Golf National in 2019. Certainly, it is one of the strongest form links you will find all season.

Other notable courses include Valderrama, whose narrow tree lined fairways and quirky test holds similarities as do leaderboards. Additionally, Valderrama tests the nerve of a golfer with bogeys inevitable and similar winning scores. Your ability to maintain composure can be as important as scoring here. Other similar course guides can be found at Diamond, Eichenreid, and a Challenge Tour event in France the Le Vaudreuil Golf Challenge.

Weather

Certainly, the weather looks tumultuous to say the least over the first two days. The course should receive some very welcome rain for the region on Thursday. The majority of this should occur in the morning. Notably though, this is forecast to be joined by high winds. Gusts in the morning look set to reach above 30mph consistently with prevailing winds in the mid-teens.

Conversely, Friday looks another windy day but with the best conditions in the morning. There is also no rain on the radar. I imagine we see those in the morning benefit from the moisture left in the ground. I don’t suspect this softening in the ground to last long. With high winds and sun in the afternoon, combined with a very hot and dry summer, should see the moisture burn off swiftly.

All of this leads to a firm weather edge to those going off Thursday afternoon and Friday morning over their first two rounds. The majority of our Cazoo Open de France picks come from that weather wave. Therefore, I would be giving a firm weighting of 40% of my DFS lineups favouring that side of the draw. Obviously, the weather can flip at any time and you should be monitoring this for your Open de France picks right up to lock. However, this forecast has remained consistent all week. Back it with confidence and keep your fingers crossed.

Open de France Picks

Suggested Staking

Alexander Bjork
2.5pts E/W +2200 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Adrian Otaegui
2pts E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Connor Syme – Your Open de France Picks Favourite
2.5pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Julien Brun
1pt E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
and
2pt Top 20 +320 (Unibet)

Callum Shinkwin – Your Open de France Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
and
2pt Top 20 +375 (Bet365)

James Morrison
1pt E/W +15000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
and
2pt Top 20 +550 (Unibet)

Soren Kjeldsen
0.5pt E/W +30000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
and
1pt Top 20 +800 (Bet365)
and
2pt Top 40 +275 (Bet365)

Summary

Thank you reading our Open de France picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching!

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