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Genesis Invitational Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Riviera Country Club host of our Genesis Invitational Preview

For the first time in history, six consecutive winners on the PGA Tour have been priced at 100/1 or longer pre-tournament. The reason for this could be speculated from many angles. My suspicion is that it is a combination of the middle of these markets being decimated by LIV Golf acquisitions, but also some regression from previous season. 2023 saw a lack of winners at triple figures or beyond. There is a chance that what we are experiencing is simply the law of averages at play, with a large number of winners between 50/1 and 100/1 last year. As we preview the Genesis Invitational, we also have the excitement of the return of Tiger Woods to competition.

The Tiger Woods Conversation

As mentioned on the PGA Draftcast this week, the deep passion fans have to see Tiger again be competitive will influence their decisions in their preview of the Genesis Invitational. A few factors need to be considered here. Of course, the tough walk of Riviera Country Club is not the most ideal given Tiger’s injury. The injury in this instance is far more severe than when is previous back issues were in-play in the late 2010s.

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Riviera Country Club has also not been the best venue for Tiger Woods. Historically, he has underperformed at this tournament compared to other golf courses. His best finish at this track came in 2004 in debut when finishing 7th. His overall popularity is still going to see him disproportionally owned in DFS compared to his actual chances. I suspect he will make the cut, with a finish around 35th would not surprise.

Riviera Country Club Course Analysis

The Genesis Invitational preview is again hosted at Riviera Country Club. The course has hosted this tournament on 59 prior occasions and every instance of the event since 1999. As such, there is a wealth of data to deep-dive into this week.

The course is decently long at 7,322 yards for a par 71. Tree-lined fairways and bunkering narrow the course, along with fairway width sitting below 30 yards on average. Rough is only 2 inches in length. However, do note that the grass type is kikuyu. This grass is quite sticky and difficult. It is liable to fliers or grabbing onto the hosel of the club.

We see a very large number of approach shots from 150-200 yards. Coincidentally, this is the same approach range that received a significant uptick in predicted approach range last week at the WM Phoenix Open. Greens are large at over 7,000sq feet on average. However, they do play a lot smaller than this. The multi-tiered nature of the greens sees the actual target area reduced to much smaller. The course has some of the highest correlation on the PGA Tour of SG: ATG and success as a result.

We have seen bombers find success at this track as of late. Given the recent weather, an argument could be made that this will again be the case this week. Personally, I would rather hone in on the best ball-strikers and SG: ATG along with putting acumen on this poa annua surfaces.

Course Comps for our Genesis Invitational Preview

Prior course form at Riviera Country Club has proven a good preview guide to future success. In fact, after Augusta National it is the second most predictive of any other regular venue on the PGA Tour.

The Masters and Augusta National are also intrinsically tied to this event. Jon Rahm completed the double last year and golfers such as Will Zalatoris, Hideki Matsuyama, and Adam Scott have found success on both tracks. This event has long been regarded as one of the best form guides to The Masters along with the Plantation Course at Kapalua.

Finally, the Valspar Championship host is the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort. They are both fairly long courses with tree-lined fairways, providing a stern test for golfers. It can be used as another reasonable guide, despite sitting on opposite sides of the United States.

Weather

Firstly, it is worth making a comment on the format this week for our Genesis Invitational preview. The tournament features just 70 players and is a signature event. However, there is also a cut this week. This is at the demand of Tiger Woods. The cut will be either 50 players and ties OR any player within 10 strokes of the lead after 36 holes. As such, any player missing the cut will have had to have played fairly poorly.

Therefore, weather plays less of a factor in our decisions this week. Regardless, weather is calm for the week. What does bear some consideration is the huge amount of rainfall experienced in California recently. The state received a year’s worth of rain in a week. The golf course superintendents will likely struggle to get the course as firm and fast as they would like, especially for Thursday and Friday. You may find that the course also plays a little bit longer as a result.

Genesis Invitational Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Genesis Invitational, you can preview these on our expert tips page here or in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

Find my Profit and Loss Tracker here.
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WM Phoenix Open Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
TPC Scottsdale hosts our WM Phoenix Open betting tips

Before getting into our betting tips for the WM Phoenix Open, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive course analysis of TPC Scottsdale, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind the WM Phoenix Open golf betting tips below.

You can find my latest profit and loss tracker here.

As always, the honourable mentions who failed to make the betting card at the WM Phoenix Open. Sungjae Im was heavily considered. He had a much better end to 2023 than many gave him credit for. He also holds excellent course history here, with prior performance proven a strong indicator for success. Some of his poor performance can be attributed to reported illness last week. However, losing on approach for three consecutive tournaments was sufficient to see him narrowly excluded.

Austin Eckroat looks to be a real talent and one I am monitoring closely, as is Vincent Norrman. Tom Kim also took a fair amount of my attention this week. Chiefly, his excellent performances at TPC Summerlin should translate well to this venue. Typically a very good putter, I have been somewhat put off by his start to 2024. Having lost quite significantly putting at all three tournaments this year and some indifferent iron play, I have started to develop concerns whether there may be a deeper underlying problem there. He remains a “wait and see” for now.

WM Phoenix Open Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking
Posted in WinDaily Discord Mon 5 Feb at 8pm ET

Byeong-Hun An
2pt E/W +3000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Eric Cole – WM Phoenix Open Betting Tips Favourite
1.5pt E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Adam Hadwin
1.5pt E/W +5000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Emiliano Grillo – WM Phoenix Open Betting Tips Best Value
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +300 (Bet365)

Kurt Kitayama
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +320 (Bet365)

Harris English
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +320 (Bet365)

Sam Ryder
0.5pt E/W +15000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +450 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +150 (Bet365)

J.J. Spaun
0.5pt E/W +16000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +550 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +175 (Bet365)

Player Profiles

A real question raises this week with Xander and Viktor withdrawing. The top of the board is left looking somewhat barren as a result. Even more so with DFS, where pricing can not be adjusted after it is set. If you were to take a stance on either Scottie Scheffler or Justin Thomas, I really couldn’t begrudge you doing so. In doing so, you would need to go all in with your preferred selection. Certainly, it is the simplest way to view the week.

Scheffler holds the most appeal to me of the two. He is quite easily the best in the world over the last two years from 150-200 yards. It is his strongest approach bucket. No wonder he is looking to complete a three-peat here this week! Of course, the question is the putter. Should he putt at anything above field average he likely wins here. Thomas for me looks too short in the market at current odds of 10/1. Yes, he has been much improved than a morbid 2023. He does very well in 150-200 yard approach shots, but historically struggles over 200 yards. He should be better priced at fair odds of 14/1 in my models.

As such, we are able to speculate on some longer shots again this week. This allows us to deploy 30 units, but take an expanded selection of 8 golfers in our WM Phoenix Open betting tips.

Byeong-Hun An

With question marks and short odds around all those after Scheffler and JT, we arrive at Benny An. I did go back and forth between Sungjae Im and Byeong-Hun An here. As mentioned in the preview, the atypical iron play from Sungjae saw fellow Korean Benny An preferred.

A resurgent end to 2023 has put him on many people’s radar. A large part of that has come down to finding some real gains with his putter. He has now gained putting in 8/9 tournaments since July 2023. Previously, this was one of the weaker parts of his game.

Plenty long off the tee and accurate enough to get the job done at TPC Scottsdale, he is a big gainer on approach from 100-200 yards. This is the best approach ranges for him. It should come as no surprise in betting that he holds a good record at the WM Phoenix Open. He has starts of a 6th on debut followed by 23-20-9-53.

He also possesses a good record at TPC San Antonio, with a 7th in 2019 and 6th last year in just 4 starts. This former winner of the BMW PGA Championship (Wentworth also typically rewarding ball-strikers) is trending towards a debut PGA Tour win soon.

Eric Cole – WM Phoenix Open Betting Tips Favourite

Cole proved to be an easy bet for me this week. Continually disrespected by books and DFS providers alike, it seems only a victory will suffice.

Being neither overly long off the tee nor accurate with the driver, Eric Cole’s game is built around his excellent approach play. For this golf course, which SG: OTT is not hugely predictive, it seems a perfect fit. He is the 6th best in this field over the last 12 months for SG: APP. He also particularly excels in the key 150-200 yard approach bucket. He again ranks 6th in this field in the past year in that range. It is the strongest distance for him, followed narrowly by 100-150 yards. 72% of approach shots are predicted in that range this week.

Missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open may have taken him off many people’s radar. Fact is, Torrey Pines is perhaps one of the worst courses on tour for Cole. It marked his first missed cut since May 2023, a run of 18 tournaments. He bounced right back to form at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, finishing 14th. He was also 4th best in the tournament for SG: APP for good measure. A 3rd in Las Vegas at TPC Summerlin in October is another hint that this may be the week for Eric Cole.

Adam Hadwin

Another opportunity for us to roll with the desert fox this week! Again, Hadwin ticks the box in the key approach range of 150-200 yards and is an excellent putter. Hadwin’s affinity with desert golf was again on full display at the American Express. It is a tournament he holds a great record, which he only reaffirmed with a 6th place finish two weeks ago.

His form at TPC Scottsdale is also solid. 10th last year came in a very strong field when this was still officially a designated signature special event. Prior to that, he had finishes of 17-12-43-44-40-50-26-10 here. Further adding to the desert form was a 4th at the Valero Texas Open last year, 2nd and 10th at TPC Summerlin in 2023, and a previous 5th and 8th at Colonial.

Emiliano Grillo – WM Phoenix Open Betting Tips Best Value

Grillo has long been the hero of the ball-striking truthers. The perennial excellent approach player who has struggled with the putter. If only all could find the same solutions Grillo did in 2023.

Somehow, Grillo really found something with the putter last year. Sufficiently so that he is actually the 31st best putter in this field over the past 12 months, 15th in the last 6 months, and 5th over the past 90 days. The ball-striking is still impressive. Particularly, the key range of 150-200 yards where is ranks 11th in this field over the last year.

A winner at Colonial in 2023 again hints desert golf should suit. He also holds a 3rd, 19th, and 8th at that course. As does some sneaky DP World Tour form, where he finished 4th in a very strong field at Jumeirah Golf Estates for the season ending tournament of the 2015 Race to Dubai.

Starting 2024 with results of 7-20-14 in the past 3 weeks bodes well for another victory shortly.

Kurt Kitayama

A great option as a boom-or-bust play, Kitayama always feels a bit all or nothing for me. He is the type of player that makes the most of his chances, proving he can mix it with the best when he finds himself in contention.

2022 and 2023 provide plenty of evidence of his relentless attitude at the biggest events. 2022 saw him 2nd at the Scottish Open and 7th at the Italian Open, both with strong fields. The latter of course was a DP World Tour event, but was well attended due to being the impending host of the Ryder Cup. 2023 of course brought the win at Bay Hill, far from the worst comp to TPC Scottsdale. He complimented that with a 5th at Austin Country Club in the match-play and 4th at the PGA Championship.

Sticking to theme, Kitayama does his best approach play over 150 yards. His wedges are typically his weakest aspect, so gaining plenty on approach last week at Pebble Beach is seen positively.

With just one look at this course, he managed a 23rd in an elevated event here last year gaining plenty with the putter and ball-striking. The putter will be key for him as always, but the performance on the greens here in 2023 provides plenty of promise at 80/1.

Harris English

An excellent putter who is often held back by his lack of distance off the tee, English has shown some decent return to form over the past 6 months. Included in that was an 8th at the US Open, with LACC again far from the worst you could do for guidance here given Rickie Fowler’s performance at both.

Previously he has a 3rd, 9th, 15th, and 16th at this tournament. A 12th at Colonial last year came the week after a missed cut, hinting at the type of course that may best suit his game. He also holds a runner-up and 5th on that course.

Of course, he does his best approach work in the 150+ yards buckets. A 3rd at the Wells Fargo Championship and 2nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2023 again point to his best work coming from distance.

Sam Ryder

Flagged as one of the highest value plays in my models, Ryder looks well over priced at 150/1. 20th here when an elevated event followed a 23rd the year prior, where he has never missed a cut here in 5 attempts.

Of no surprise, he again pops in the 150-200 yard range. He sits just behind Eric Cole in 7th for SG: APP in that key range over the past 12 months. For total approach, he ranks 6th in this field over the last 6 months.

The 3rd at TPC San Antonio last year was very nearly a win for him. TPC Summerlin is also ticked, with a 3rd, 18th and two 28th place finishes most recently. He has always been at field average or gained putting at this tournament, demonstrating a sense of comfort on these greens above other venues. Ryder looks worth a small look in win markets, but equally great value in Top 20 and Top 40 finish markets.

J.J. Spaun

Finally, we conclude our WM Phoenix Open golf betting tips with a speculative look at Spaun.

Obviously, the venue of his 2022 Valero Texas Open win is well correlated to here. Large green complexes featuring the same grass, near identical distance metrics, and desert waste areas waiting to catch your ball if you stray massively offline. He also holds a 26th and a 22nd at TPC San Antonio most recently. Spaun has a 10th and a pair of 15th placed finishes in 7 starts at TPC Summerlin to his name.

It should be no surprise Spaun found immediate liking to this venue, featuring 4th in just his 9th PGA Tour start. Of most promise, he has always putted well on these greens. He has always gained or been at field average in all his appearances. In this weaker field in 2024, he is worth a bet at the long 200/1 odds on offer.

Join Team Audience on the PGA Draftcast

Once again, thank you for your support of DeepDiveGolf and reading my WM Phoenix Open betting tips. Make sure you are subscribed to the WinDaily Sports YouTube channel. We love seeing you in the chat to help Team Audience live draft a DFS line-up against us.

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WM Phoenix Open Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
TPC Scottsdale hosts our WM Phoenix Open preview

Another week and another preview to deep-dive into as the PGA Tour moves to Arizona for the WM Phoenix Open!

The PGA Tour were a bit unlucky after what can only be described as a somewhat lacklustre finish to the first proper signature event of the season. Offsetting that was a rather remarkable round from Wyndham Clark. You can hardly begrudge him his victory after an impressive round of 60, despite the reduction to 54 holes to hurricane like weather. Also, a huge shoutout to one of our WinDaily team Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) who successfully tipped him at 100/1!

Although we correctly predicted the event would only be held over 54 holes, we ourselves were a bit unlucky to get on the wrong side of the weather. Although Thursday was tough as predicted, Friday ended up playing much easier than forecasts foreshadowed. This resulted in a substantial edge developing for players who played the more sheltered Spyglass Hill on Thursday. We had unfortunately gone the other way, expecting higher forecast winds on Friday to prove difficult on the highly exposed Pebble Beach Golf Links.

These things can and do happen. Part of covering any live sporting event is the unpredictability and volatility that naturally enters that territory. But, isn’t that part of the beauty? And, this was the first tournament this year where we didn’t really end up with anyone in true contention. We trust the process and continue what we do best, as we preview the WM Phoenix Open.

TPC Scottsdale Course Analysis

Having been held at TPC Scottsdale, since 1987, we again have one of those beautiful weeks where there is plenty of easy data available to preview the WM Phoenix Open. It only take a cursory glance at previous leaderboards to realise a couple things. Firstly, with several multiple winners here course history is relatively sticky. Secondly, that this is a course dominated by good ball strikers.

Names such as Scheffler, Matsuyama, Koepka, Fowler, Thomas, and Mickelson all hint at some of the best iron players on the Tour. They also have a certain amount of grit to them, often finding themselves in contention in the biggest of events. Despite losing signature status, still remains amongst the more iconic events on the schedule.

Of note in the data is the heavy skewing we see in approach distances. Golfers will see between 8-9 approach shots on average from 150-200 yards. Despite being an above average length par 71 at 7,261 yards, roll-out tends to give a helping hand to shorter hitters. Likewise, the wide fairways and fairly benign rough mean you can pull driver often without actually providing much advantage. The main thing off the tee is to avoid the big miss and the risks in the natural waste areas. Your approach is the way to separate yourself from the pack.

Huge green complexes average over 7,000 sq ft. This sees an increased importance on not just finding the green, but the right area and shelf on the surfaces. Putting does receive a higher weighting at this course. A combination of needing to lag putt, avoid long three putts, and make your birdie opportunities see SG: Putting as a good indicator of potential success.

Course Comps for our WM Phoenix Open Preview

As mentioned, prior form at TPC Scottsdale does tend to be a good predictor of future success here. Accordingly, you should give a higher weighting to previous performance on this track than at other venues. Likewise, if a golfer has had several opportunities to preview this course and never really performed well you should take this into consideration at the WM Phoenix Open.

Other desert form is useful to consider at this event. TPC Summerlin, host of the Shriners Children’s Open in neighbouring Las Vegas Nevada, is a decent enough guide. You will see similar approach metrics to those at the WM Phoenix Open, and a preview into a golfers ability in desert altitude.

Additionally, Colonial Country Club and TPC San Antonio in Texas bear consideration. The latter, host of the Valero Texas Open, is a particularly good guide. TPC San Antonio also features multi-tiered Poa Trivialis greens. They also have near identical distances throughout the course. Average par 4/5 length being 469 vs 467 yards and average par 3 length being 188 vs 183 yards. Fairway widths are 31.3 on average vs 31.5 yards at TPC Scottsdale.

Finally, The American Express provides a nice combination of desert golf and recent form. It is worth considering as guide for your WM Phoenix Open preview.

Weather

We saw the beauty of the volatility that comes with the weather last week. Although we nailed the call early in the week that the Pebble Beach Pro-Am would be a 54 hole event, Friday brought far less rain and winds than had been originally forecast.

Certainly, it always poses a risk to take a stance when it comes to mother nature. However, the risk so often proves worthwhile. Bookmakers are notoriously slow to react to weather forecasts in adjusting their pricing. Likewise, DFS players can benefit in significant leverage on the rest of the field when you get the weather right and have constructed your line-ups to benefit.

It does seem quite possible a weather edge may develop this week as well. Thursday looks to be cold and overcast all day. Rain is predicted in mid to late afternoon. This will make the course play longer, but also mean the greens will play softer. The heaviest wind gusts are currently forecast in the morning. Friday looks to be calm but still cold. There is little variation in wind gusts forecast throughout the day. Saturday looks to bring quite heavy rain, which could prove difficult for any very short hitters who aren’t excellent with longer approach shots. Sunday should be sunny, but a very cold morning to start.

If I were to take a guess, those going out Thursday afternoon may see the best of conditions. There is certainly a risk that flips again this week. The rains could well be accompanied by either an uptick or continuation of the morning winds. As such, I’d definitely recommend building some contrarian lines this week to cover both angles in some capacity.

WM Phoenix Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips and player profiles for the WM Phoenix Open, you can preview these here.

Find my Profit and Loss Tracker here.
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Thank you for reading my WM Phoenix Open preview and tournament analysis. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Pebble Beach betting tips provided by DeepDiveGolf

Before getting into our betting tips for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive course analysis of Pebble Beach Golf Links and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into some of my process behind the Pebble Beach golf betting tips below.

It was fantastic finally securing a winner after a month of runner-ups and close finishes on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour. To do so at the Farmers Insurance Open at 125/1 with Matthieu Pavon only made it even sweeter.

You can find my latest profit and loss tracker here.

Of those unlucky to miss out on the card this week, Jordan Spieth heads the list. The course history is obvious, as is the resurgence to form, and his correlated win at Harbor Town. However, the weather raises concern with the inherent volatility that this will bring. Likewise, with just the one start in 2024 question marks remain whether the improvement in performance is here to stay. He was simply a tad too short when compared to my preferred option at the top of the market.

Russell Henley was considered at 50/1, although the Sony Open was again a reminder that he may struggle to get across the line as often as he should. I preferred to emphasise putting more this week as well, which contributed to his exclusion along with Chris Kirk at 80/1. Finally, Noren holds obvious abilities in the wind. He was tough to leave out. He struggles in the key approach range of 100-150 yards. Additionally, he has missed the cut here twice when hitting the ball relatively well. I’d have likely taken him at 100/1 rather than the 80s on offer.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips

Suggested Staking
Updated Monday 29 January 8:00am

Max Homa – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips Favourite
5pts E/W +1800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +275 (Bet365)

Adam Hadwin – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips Best Value
1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +275 (Bet365)

Andrew Putnam
1pt E/W +11000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +300 (Bet365)

Speculative Play
0.5pt Straight Forecast Homa to beat Schauffele +20000 (Bet365)

Player Profiles

Max Homa – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips Favourite

Once I saw the weather forecast, there was one name I wanted to head my betting card if we could get the right number. Having opened at just 15/1 in the UK, I was very pleased to see Max Homa open at 22/1 in win only markets.

Homa’s aptitude for performing in his home state of California is well documented. He is a winner at Riviera, Torrey Pines, and twice at the Fortinet Championship in Napa. An element of comfortability in the area and, particularly, on the poa annua surfaces could well be key this week.

What excited me about the weather was Homa’s clear aptitude to find the top of the leaderboard in such conditions. His 2022 Wells Fargo Championship and Fortinet Championship wins both came in miserable wet conditions. Perhaps some of the comes to his mental toughness. He has the word “Relentless” tattooed on his right wrist and would often tell his Cal teammates “you have to be a bulldog, you just got to be tough”.

Max Homa has finished 10-14-7 his last three starts on this course, all when this was still a full field event. He should benefit from the removal of Monterey Peninsula, his weakest course of the three. Of no surprise, he is one of the best in the world for approach from 100-150 yards. Additionally, he gets the easier but more exposed Pebble Beach in calmer weather on Thursday.

Homa has finished no worse than 21st since June 2023, a run of 11 straight tournaments. More remarkably, he has finished 14th or better in the 10 events since July 2023. The majors are the obvious next step for him, but winning on an iconic course like Pebble Beach will be high on his goals as he is in our betting tips.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Outside Homa, we move right down the board to golfers 80/1 or longer. The reason for this is two-fold. Firstly, we have assigned some heavy weighting on Homa. Secondly, in a event likely to prove volatile with the weather and a small 80 man field there could well be some decent value at the lower end of the board this week.

The first of those is Christiaan Bezuidenhout. A three time winner at DP World Tour level, Bezuidenhout went awfully close to his debut PGA Tour victory when runner-up at the American Express two weeks ago. A missed cut at Torrey Pines was unsurprising, being a week after that run and on a golf course that really is far too long for him.

Bezuidenhout has played here just once for a 14th placed finish. Notably, this came after an indifferent opening 71 on the now excluded Monterey Peninsula. He gained +1.90 strokes to the field at Spyglass Hills. However, he did by far his best work at Pebble Beach. Closing with rounds of 66-69 there, he gained a cumulative +6.75 strokes to the field on the weekend.

He does his best approach work from 100-150 yards, sitting in the top 20% in the world over the last 12 months. His game really does look to be elevating of late. He is the best in the field over the past 3 months for SG: APP and 6th for SG: Putting. He is also in the top 25% in this field for SG: ATG over the past 6 months. That combination of the key approach range with an excellent short-game is ideal for Pebble Beach. Ideally, he gets the first tee-time on Pebble Beach for Thursday.

Adam Hadwin – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips Best Value

Hadwin looks to be clear value at 100/1 this week. Another on the improve, he was 6th when last sighted at the American Express in La Quinta California.

He has a great record on this course, with form of 39-18-MC-16. The latest 16th place finish included losing 4 strokes on the greens. Given he has gained significantly on the greens in his other three appearances, it speaks to his suitability on this unique approach test. He is also the 9th best putter in this field over the past 6 months.

The approach data from 100-150 yards is some of the best you can find. He is in the top 2% for good shot percentage from that yardage and, additionally, he is in the top 7% for strokes gained in this approach bucket in the world over the last 12 months. For this particular field, he ranks 10th for SG: APP from this yardage. Hadwin also is the third group out on Thursday at Pebble Beach.

Performance in wild weather is also evident. Most notably, he finished 9th in the extremes of The Players Championship in 2022. The benefit of being accurate but also decently long off the tee, combined with a superb chipper and putter, will be an asset in these conditions.

Andrew Putnam

Finally, we round out our selections with Andrew Putnam. Putnam’s lack of distance should be no issue on this golf course, with his excellent driving accuracy a potential benefit in the high winds.

Again, sticking to the key approach range of 100-150 yards really identifies Putnam. He is 7th for SG:APP in this field over the past 12 months there. He is in the top 95% or better in the world for SG, GIR, Good Shot % and Poor Shot Avoidance for approach in that range over the last year.

A 6th place finish here in 2022 was noteworthy, where he played very well at Spyglass Hill and in his first of the two rounds at Pebble Beach. An average final round can somewhat be excused to nerves when holding the joint 54 hole lead. He will be better for that experience, and arrives here a much improved prospect than 2 years ago.

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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Pebble Beach plays host to DeepDiveGolf AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview

What a week! Having been knocking on the door at every PGA Tour event in 2024, we finally saw one of our golfers get across the line. Obviously, that was in a rather big way with Matthieu Pavon making these pages at a massive 125/1! A huge bet landing, but also our first real signature event of the season as we preview what to expect from Pebble Beach.

Of course, it was a result that had been coming for quite sometime. At all three PGA Tour tournaments, we had who seemed the likely winner right there on Sunday. Theegala was runner-up and Spieth 3rd at The Sentry. We had Henley, Grillo, and Putnam at the Sony Open. Henley should’ve probably won that event, as should Sam Burns at the American Express last week. I always reiterate, the key is to trust the process. As we continue to find the likely winner at events, the more they are in the position to do so and come Sunday one will eventually find his way tot he top of the podium.

We can’t get too greedy having hit a huge winner last week. Despite the huge hit, we still had a few close calls. Patrick Rodgers secured himself a 9th place finish. That cashed our Top 20 bet on him at +300. He did miss out by one shot on a full place payout at +1320. Zalatoris looks well on the way to recovery, finishing 13th for us just two shots off a full place at +900. Schenk was one shot off cashing his Top 20 bet at +450. All around, a very profitable week obviously. Let’s go get some more with our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview!

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview: Course Analysis

Some important changes this year to note in our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview. With the move to a Signature Event, keeping the sponsors happy with all the best available players here, we also see the reduction to a field size of just 80 players.

This means we see the third course in rotation, Monterey Peninsula, dropped. Amateurs will only play first two rounds, with all the professionals playing 4 rounds with no cut. The first two rounds are split between Spyglass Hill and Pebble Beach. Pebble Beach Golf Links will then host the final two rounds.

This should prove easier than the confusing mangle of data when three courses were in rotation and required analysis. Particularly, with three rounds on Pebble Beach it means we can near exclusively focus on players suitability to that course and what is required in our preview.

Pebble Beach is a rather unique and quirky test. The iconic course is very short. Sitting at under 7,000 yards it is the shortest par 72 on the PGA Tour. Greens are also some of the smallest we see of the regular PGA Tour stops at just 3,500 sq feet on average. Despite the short distance, cliffs and hazards determine that it can’t simply be overpowered by the driver. However, with the 4th widest fairways on Tour driving accuracy is also of limited importance here. As such, we see nearly all players playing from the same approach distance often.

This sees one of the largest concentrated pockets of approach shots all season, with 100-150 yard approach essential to success. With the tiny greens, there is also a large uptick in both SG: ATG and SG: Putting. These both receive heavy weighting in my model. Especially, considering the current inclement weather predicted which we will discuss shortly.

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Pebble Beach Course Comps

Firstly, as we preview some course comps for Pebble Beach it is worth noting course history is somewhat transitive at this event. It becomes difficult to untangle individual performance on each track with a myriad of factors in account. For example, if a day in particular played more difficult in general should we read too much into a golfer’s performance on whichever course they were on? If this event does remain across the two courses, especially with three rounds at Pebble Beach Golf Links, deciphering suitability and crossover to other tournaments may become easier.

The same can be said when discussing comp courses. I believe Harbor Town should prove somewhat decent guidance. Like Pebble Beach, we see a large deviation from standard driving distance. Greens are also extremely small, with increased missed GIR seeing a boost in SG: ATG and SG: Putting. Mav McNealy finished 4th at the RBC Heritage the same year he was runner-up at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Jordan Spieth has an excellent record at both and is a winner at each.

The RSM Classic could also be a useful guide. Another coastal tournament, it uses a rotation between the Seaside Course and longer Plantation Course. General form in California is appreciated, as is performance on these tricky poa annua greens.

Weather Analysis

You know the weather must be bad when the rest of golf Twitter is suddenly alight with forecast take! Of course, we always preview weather as an essential component of our analysis and especially at Pebble Beach. It seems bizarre not to when no other sport is more subject to the elements.

Objectively, the weather does indeed look dreadful this week. There is a large frontal system moving along the coast, with the first wave to hit overnight Wednesday.

Thursday itself should be calm. However, it is worth noting the huge amount of rain forecast overnight with high winds. There may be delays due flooding or downed trees with branches that need retrieving before play can commence. Friday will again see light rain, with some moderate gusts in the afternoon.

Saturday sees much of the same. Sunday is where it looks to get really gnarly. The rest of the storm is forecast to arrive, bringing extremely heavy rain and winds gusting up to 60mph. I wouldn’t be surprised if no play occurs on that day. Especially, considering the exposed nature of Pebble Beach you could easily see balls unable to remain still on the greens. Expect either a 54 hole event or a Monday finish (which still looks very wet and windy).

What should we make of this? Given breadth of the weather, the best approach is likely simply finding golfers who have positive performance in wet and windy conditions. I do have a slight preference to playing the more exposed Pebble Beach on the Thursday. Spyglass Hill receives a modicum of protection due to the trees on the property.

You can find latest forecast details here.
Make sure to check in the WinDaily Premium Discord for up to date weather information using premium models, right up until first tee-time.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview Golf Betting Tips

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Ras Al Khaimah Championship Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Al Hamra hosts our Ras Al Khaimah Championship Betting Tips

Before getting into our betting tips for the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive analysis of Al Hamra Golf Club this week, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into some of my process behind the Ras Al Khaimah Championship golf betting tips below.

Another extremely close week for us. Adrian Meronk finished 2nd by one shot at 25/1 and also just missed out on first-round leader at 33/1. Frustratingly, he missed two 3ft5in putts in the first round costing us both bets. Joaquin Niemann played well as predicted, finishing 4th also at 25/1. Both returned full place payouts at +625. We also cashed a top 40 on Jayden Schaper at +180. It was a profit of +9.65 units for the week.

Of those unlucky to miss out on the card this week, Zander Lombard, Richard Mansell, and Daniel Hillier headed the list. Lombard has been in excellent form of late, plus has a great record with 2nd and 3rd in his last two tournaments at Al Hamra. This grade of DP World Tour tournament seems the level he will secure his first win. However, losing two tournaments straight on approach and 22/1 was a tad short.

Mansell has plenty of distance and a great record on driver heavy golf courses. He had a great first round in Dubai, cashing a 80/1 first-round leader for us although split through dead-heat. He did fade heavily over the rest of the tournament, which was enough to see him excluded. Daniel Hillier deserves respect on a good setup for him. A couple missed cuts in Dubai meant others were narrowly preferred.

Ras Al Khaimah Championship Betting Tips

Suggested Staking
Updated with best place odds at 22:00 ET 23 January

Hennie du Plessis
2.5pt E/W +3500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Tom McKibbin – Ras Al Khaimah Championship Favourite
2.5pt E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Louis de Jager
1pt E/W +6000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +280 (Bet365)

Jayden Schaper
1pt E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +300 (Bet365)

Johannes Veerman – Ras Al Khaimah Championship Best Value Bet
0.5pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +425 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +145 (Bet365)

Callum Shinkwin
0.5pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +425 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +145 (Bet365)

Jeong Weon Ko
0.5pt E/W +22500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +750 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +300 (TAB)

Player Profiles

Hennie du Plessis

First, we start with a South African in young Hennie du Plessis. As mentioned in my tournament preview, par 5 scoring has a big influence on performance at Al Hamra Golf Club. Multiple best performers at this tournament have sat in the top 10 for par 5 scoring in either 2023 or 2022. Hennie du Plessis was the best for par 5 scoring in 2023 and 4th in 2022.

Much of that comes with his prowess off the tee. Du Plessis is the 13th longest driver in this field and 8th for SG: OTT. He is also 24th in SG: APP and 12th SG: T2G in this field over the last 6 months. That combination of ball-striking is ideal for this course.

His lack of ATG should be tempered on this course, where the large greens see a reduced number of misses. The rough is mild and bunkers relatively simple, meaning this should be less of a factor this week. It was that which held him back last week in Dubai. He was 20th SG: OTT, 36th SG: APP, and 22nd in SG: PUTT. That was one of the best fields on the DP World Tour and this is much easier. Although this is his first trip to the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, it looks a fabulous course fit and he is too long in betting markets at 35/1.

Tom McKibbin – Ras Al Khaimah Championship Favourite

A lad from Holywood Golf Club won the Dubai Desert Classic last week. Obviously, that was Rory McIlroy. I am hoping that recent victory provides some inspiration for another Holywood golfer: the talented 21 year old Tom McKibbin.

I’m not sure what they put in the water in the small village of Holywood, as it has somehow produced another huge hitting prodigy. The Northern Irishman is 6th in this field in SG: OTT over the last 6 months. It was an excellent Dubai swing for McKibbin in his own right. He was 14th at the Dubai Desert Classic, his best finish in a Rolex Series tournament thus far, and 25th at the Dubai Invitational.

That came off the back of some truly excellent ball-striking. He was 3rd for SG: OTT, behind only McIlroy and runner-up Meronk. He was also 19th for SG: APP to suggest his swing is in great shape. McKibbin really struggled on the ultra fast icy greens of Emirates Golf Club. Certainly, these are a lot slower and easier.

McKibbin was 14th for par 5 scoring in his debut DP World Tour season. He managed a 36th here last year, in a promising start for a young golfer finding their feet on tour. He would quickly notch his first DP World Tour victory at the Porsche European Open. That is at the brutal Green Eagle Golf Course, the longest course on the tour schedule. McKibbin has a big future ahead of him, and another DP World Tour victory here would be unsurprising.

Louis de Jager

Heading to some longer odds, we add another South African to the Ras Al Khaimah Championship betting card. De Jager is another big hitter of the golf ball whose best performances have come on driver favoured golf courses. Notably, he has never missed a cut at any of our comp courses. 14th at the Portugal Masters in his debut season, 6th at the Open De Espana, and 4th in October at the new Andalucia Masters host course correlate nicely. Obviously, they were all driver heavy courses but also tick the Iberian Peninsula form link we see here.

De Jager showed he suited this course nicely with a 28th on his first look. That is always promising for me when a golfer can perform on a track with no prior course knowledge. Additionally, he finished 12th in par 5 scoring in 2023 and 19th in 2022. The performance last week in Dubai is of little concern, with SG: ATG again the main factor. Otherwise, his game looked stout. Particularly, finishing 20th for SG: APP and 29th for SG: PUTT on some tricky surfaces.

Jayden Schaper

The final in our trifecta of South African’s on the card this week, Schaper returns after making our card at the Dubai Desert Classic. All things told, a 38th place finish was an excellent return for the 22 year old.

Schaper was 23rd for SG: OTT last week and 15th for SG: PUTT. Prior to that, he had rattled off 4 consecutive top 10 finishes to end the 2023 season. Those all came in Africa, but this course does really remind me of some of their tracks. Particularly, akin to the Club at Steyn City where he finished 17th. Big hitting German Nick Bachem won there for us in 2023, tipped at 100/1.

Another link can be found in the Barbasol Championship. In his first ever PGA Tour tournament, he finished 16th at a course dominated by longer hitters. Again, a big hitter in Vincent Norrman won the event. Schaper has oodles of talent, and I suspect we will see him regarded in the top 20 DP World Tour players in quick fashion.

Johannes Veerman – Ras Al Khaimah Championship Best Value Bet

Quite clearly my easiest bet of the week. Veerman was the first name I looked for on the betting board, and I was very pleasantly surprised to find him at 100/1.

It was a fantastic Dubai Desert Classic for Veerman. He finished 16th, in what was his first start of the season. That is following on from an 8th in 2023 and 35th in 2022 with his first look at Emirates Golf Club. Last week’s performance came despite struggling on those firm and fast greens. He was 66th in SG: Putt but 28th for SG: OTT, 9th for SG: APP, and 25th for SG: ATG.

Veerman now finds himself at a course he clearly suits. Two starts at Al Hamra have already seen him finish 12th and 19th. Importantly, he has gained strokes putting here in a big way. Again, highlighting his suitability to this type of course is a 8th in his only look at the Portugal Masters.

Completing the picture are his big gains on approach of late. In this field, he ranks 49th for SG: APP when looking over the last two years. Zooming in on the last 6 months, he jumps to 13th in the rankings. With plenty of evidence his ball-striking is entering elevated levels, he finds himself a track where he has putted really well. He is simply the best value on the board, where fair pricing would be more in the 70/1 range.

Callum Shinkwin

We stick at 100/1 for our next Ras Al Khaimah Championship betting tips, with long-hitting Englishman Callum Shinkwin. Behind Veerman, Shinkwin again made a very obvious selection this week.

Unfortunately, Shinkwin had to WD with a wrist injury last year here. That was when sitting at -8 and tied 9th. Prior to that, he had already shown this was a course to his liking with a 21st and 25th in two appearances.

Correlated form is easy to find. A pair of 17th place finishes at the Portugal Masters included on debut there. His 2nd DP World tour victory was at Celtic Manor, a former Ryder Cup host and a driver heavy golf course. His 2020 Cyprus Open links both in terms of low scoring Mediterranean coastal golf courses and long hitters. Names such as Samooja, MacIntyre, and Valimaki are all big drivers and littered the leaderboard behind him.

Shinkwin also shares great form at neighbouring Emirates Golf Club. A 4th placed finish in 2023 was followed by a strong 11th place finish last week. Again, he gained in all the right areas. He was 7th for SG: OTT, 14th for SG: APP, and 20th for SG: PUTT. Sitting 28th for driving distance and 26th for SG: APP in this field over the past 6 months demonstrates the fundamentals of his game match perfectly for Al Hamra.

Following the WD here, Shinkwin sadly had two months out of the game recovering. Expect perhaps some retribution on the golf course this week, at a setup that clearly suits his play.

Jeong Weon Ko

Finally, wrapping up our tips is a speculative play on Jeong Weon Ko. This is a boom or bust type play, but what you would expect from a golfer available between 275/1 to 300/1 depending how many places you are willing to forego.

One of the biggest drivers in this field, Ko ranks 21st for driving distance in this field over the last 6 months. Ko really struggled last week in Dubai as the tournament went on. He was simply not up to the test as the greens got firmer and faster over the weekend. Instead, we can take some solace that he opened with a decent 69 when the course was at it’s easiest and made the cut. Majority of his lost strokes came with the putter, where he ranked 73rd. The fundamentals though looked decent enough for a first start of the year being 32nd for SG: OTT, 56th for SG: APP, and 49th SG: ATG.

Ko was 28th on this golf course in 2023, his only look at Al Hamra. Additionally, he finished 7th at the Andalucia Masters in October. The tournament was littered with other strong drivers of the golf ball, led by winner Meronk but also the likes of Schmid, Mansell, and De Jager all just ahead of him on the leaderboard. He finished ahead of the likes of other big hitters like Pavon, Perez, Bachem, and Olesen. It all suggests this could be the type of test that suits at a big price.

DP World Tour Fantasy Reminder

Having now read our Ras Al Khaimah Championship betting tips, now is a great time to lock in your line-up for the DP World Tour fantasy contest. We have a fun league you can join here using league code ZD74TJ6S or searching for DeepDiveGolf. It is free to play and always good to see who will finish on top from the WinDaily family!

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Ras Al Khaimah Championship Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
DeepDiveGolf provides his Ras Al Khaimah Championship preview

The DP World Tour remains in the United Arab Emirates for another week as we preview the Ras Al Khaimah Championship. It has been a start to the year with frustratingly close calls every week. This week in Dubai, it was Adrian Meronk in 2nd and Joaquin Niemann in 4th. We cash a full place payout for us with both at +625. We also cash a Top 40 on Jayden Schaper at +180. Although frustrating, we can take solace in the fact we are consistently finding the value plays that are in contention. It only becomes a matter of time before one finds the Sunday we need to get the job done and collect in a big way.

This is where the equation of expected value comes into play. Whenever you place a wager, you will have a expected return from that bet over time. The aim is to place a bet at odds which are not an accurate reflection of the win equity that golfer actually possesses. Rory McIlroy deservedly claimed his 4th Dubai Desert Classic title this week. It is an event where I first scored for him as a 16 year old amateur, and where he secured his first tournament win just three years later. However, he would need to win the event more than 5 times as often as Meronk or Niemann to justify his very short odds. It is easy to fall into the trap of seeing a bet cash and thinking it was a good play.

It is key to make that important distinction, where you can actually place a bet that wins but over time it is a losing bet. Let’s dive into some research to help us find the value with our Ras Al Khaimah Championship preview.

Al Hamra Golf Club Course Analysis

The DP World Tour move just 90 minutes up the road to Ras Al Khaimah. This will be the 4th time Al Hamra Golf Club has hosted an event. Do note that one was titled the Ras Al Khaimah Classic instead of Championship, so make sure to take a course history preview here to get the full breadth of data for your analysis.. There also was the 2018 Ras Al Khaimah Challenge Tour Grand Final and the 2016 and 2017 Ras Al Khaimah Golf Challenge on the grade below the DP World Tour.

What has been clear thus far is that the strong drivers of the golf ball experience a distinct advantage. Nicolai Hojgaard won in 2022 and Ryan Fox lifted his first DP World Tour trophy here a week later. Jordan Smith won here on the Challenge Tour, with Meronk a runner-up at the same level also holding a 4th and 6th at DP World Tour grade. Victor Perez has finishes of 7-2-13 in three starts. All are also excellent approach players.

Winner Daniel Gavins last season was the anomaly. He gained +9.04 SG: Putting on the field in the best putting week of his career. That was also a particularly windy tournament, correlating to putting became a more decisive factor that year.

That all makes sense for a 7,410 yard par 72. Fairways are plenty wide. Greens are also above average size. With winning scores typically ranging in the -17 to -22 mark, taking care of the four par 5s is going to go a long way towards victory here. All those players named, outside Gavins, have finished in the top 10 of par 5 scoring in either 2022 or 2023.

Al Hamra Golf Club Course Comps

As always in our weekly preview, we provide some golf courses where correlating form may prove influential at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship. In it’s short stint on the DP World Tour, Al Hamra Golf Club has already seen prior course form prove fairly “sticky”. This correlation will only fully reveal itself the more tournaments we have at this venue. But, the fact we have seen multiple longer odds players build up a decent record here already proves promising.

He surmised in our preview of the 2023 Andalucia Masters that Copa Sotogrande could be a good correlation to here. It was the first professional tournament at that golf course. Sadly, LIV Golf took over hosting tournaments at the iconic Valderrama. The links do seem well-founded. There has long been a link between Iberian Peninsula and the Middle East courses. This comes from a combination of climate, low scoring, positive driving, and generally being in windier coastal locations. Reading through the leaderboard, long drivers dominated. Meronk won and was followed by names like Schmid, Mansell, Hanna, De Jager, Ko, Olesen, Perez, Pavon, and Bachem to name just a few.

Other Iberian form can be found at former Portugal Masters course Dom Pedro. Likewise, Open de Espana host Club de Campo Villa de Madrid should be considered. Both preview to be driver paradise’s over the years and show good leaderboard correlation to the Ras Al Khaimah Championship.

Last week’s host, Emirates Golf Club, is far from the worst comp for our Ras Al Khaimah Championship preview. Players such as Meronk, Arnaus, and Fisher link the two nicely. This also provides a nice combination with a guide to recent incoming form.

Ras Al Khaimah Championship Weather Preview

As is the typical for the region, you will often find the mornings calm and winds to build in the afternoon. This is the same instance of on-shore breeze we so often see in the Iberian Peninsula and Middle East. This should particularly play a factor in first-round leader markets.

Whether a tournament long draw advantage develops is less likely. Currently, both Thursday and Friday the winds look similar. Winds are clam in the mornings and reaching 10-15 mph gusts in the afternoon. Sunday does look to see some increased winds. This could present some opportunity for in-play bets. Should the afternoon end up extremely windy, a golfer not too far back going off in more favourable conditions may be able to chase down the leaders before the winds arrive.

Our latest weather forecasts using premium models will be available in our premium Discord channel.

Ras Al Khaimah Championship Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading my Ras Al Khaimah Championship preview and tournament analysis.
If you would like access to my golf betting tips and player profiles for the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, you can find these here.

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American Express Golf Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
PGA West plays host to our American Express golf betting tips

Before getting into our betting tips for the Dubai Desert Classic, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive analysis of the three courses used this week, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into some of my process behind the American Express golf betting tips below.

As always, a few honourable mentions for this week. Adam Hadwin has an excellent desert record and equally as impressive a record here previously. He would’ve been preferred at 70s to the 50s that are on offer in this strength of field. Stephan Jaeger entered the frame given his ball-striking. Questions still remain about the putter with him. Clearly, that is a factor this week more than most. This might be the type of test that should suit Michael Kim at 150/1. However, others were just preferred ahead of him in that price range.

Finally, as mentioned in my preview article the average winning odds here are 130/1. I would, however, again mention that this field has seen increasing strength the last two years. Favourite Jon Rahm was victorious in 2023 at just +650, back when he was busy winning at every tournament he started. Obviously, he is not here to defend his title this week. But many other big names are returning. They dominate the market and, as such, it may still remain difficult for a very long outsider to shock the golf world here. Although we have found some value spots, the American Express betting tips reflect that reality.

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The American Express Golf Betting Tips

Updated with best odds at 00:00ET 16 January
Suggested Staking

Sam Burns – American Express golf betting tips favourite
2.5pt E/W +3000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Min Woo Lee
2.5pt E/W +3000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Cam Davis
2pt E/W +5000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Beau Hossler
1pt E/W +7000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +350 (Unibet)

Austin Eckroat
0.5pt E/W +12500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +450 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +162 (Bet365)

K.H. Lee – American Express golf betting tips best value
0.5pt E/W +12500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +450 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +170 (TAB) or +162 (Bet365)

Joseph Bramlett
0.5pt E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +600 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +275 (TAB)

Player Profiles

Sam Burns – American Express golf betting tips favourite

We lead off the card with Sam Burns. Skipping the top of this betting board comes with obvious risks. However, if there was ever an event where we are going to take on the likes of Scheffler and Cantlay, it should probably be this one. Burns sits right below the elite of the game, yet receives a more generous price than some of his counterparts who for me rank in a similar tier. The 33/1 looks a fair few points too high when compared to the likes of Sungjae Im and Tom Kim at 20/1.

Unlike the latter of those two, Burns has plenty of driving distance ranking 11th in this field from the past 6 months. He also ticks the putting box, sitting 10th in SG: Putting in this field over the past year. An average week at The Sentry, when 33rd, can be forgiven when shaking off the rust. If anything, Burns looked consistent if not spectacular, carding 4 rounds in the 60s.

His course form here is superb, with a record of 18-6-MC-11. We see more hints to his potential suitability with a 2nd at the Byron Nelson on his first look there. Further, desert golf in Las Vegas has seen Burns secure a 20th, 34th, and 14th most recently.

The Pete Dye Stadium course, where two rounds are played, should suit him particularly well. Burns won the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club, another Pete Dye design. Putting always receives a higher weighting in match-play events. Further, La Quinta Country Club has a large increase in long iron shots, with 35% of approach shots over 200 yards. That is very similar to the Copperhead Course, where Sam Burns has a fabulous record as two time winner of the Valspar Championship.

Min Woo Lee

With his first professional start in 2024, it naturally comes with some risk putting up a golfer who hasn’t played a tournament since early December. However, he is far from the only one in that boat. 2024 has been a ear-marked by many pundits as a potential break-through year for the talented young Australian. A victory in this type of field would give him plenty of confidence that he can go on to even better things.

Much of the hype comes from a very strong end to last year. He won an event in Macao, as he should’ve given the opposition, and then in a stronger field at the Australian PGA Championship. Given his youth, Min Woo doesn’t have much in the way of desert experience from the PGA Tour. However, having been born in Perth Western Australia, he would’ve had plenty of opportunity over the years as well as playing in the famous Melbourne sand-belt region including during his amateur years.

This does look like the type of test that should suit his game. He is the 2nd longest driver, 12th for SG: Putting, and 13th for SG: ATG in this field over the past 12 months. Where he can lack in approach, this has seen continual improvement and his best area is for approach over 200 yards. He began the 2023 season with aplomb, finishing a close 2nd in the desert at a DP World Tour Rolex Series event in Abu Dhabi with one of the strongest fields of the season. Let’s hope for another quick start this year.

Cam Davis

We go back-to-back with the young Aussie golfers in our American Express betting tips with Cam Davis. Although he hails from the opposite side of Australia in Sydney, that is also closer to the sand belt region where he has a wealth of experience.

Davis’ sole PGA Tour victory came at the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic, far from the worse comp for here. Always a low scoring affair, it has become more of a bomber’s paradise over time. We perhaps expected Davis to kick-on from that victory earlier than he has. But, much akin to Min Woo, he had a strong end to 2023 and this could be the year he realizes that raw potential.

That included a run of 8 tournaments from July to November. Davis finished outside the top 12 just once in those events. Most relevant was a 7th place at the Shriners Children’s Open in Las Vegas, where he has never missed the cut in 5 appearances. Although missing the cut here last year, that only speaks to the volatility of this tournament. In 2021, he was 3rd at this event to compliment a 28th and 29th in his first two years on the PGA Tour.

A 4th at the PGA Championship and a 6th at The Players Championship suggest he is grown more comfortable in elite company. The latter of those two is hosted at TPC Sawgrass, another Pete Dye design. I like that Cam Davis saw marked improvement in both approach and driving accuracy across the two Hawaii tournaments. Look to the man who is the best putter in this field over the last 3 months to provide a strong showing this week.

Beau Hossler

A certain golfer made our 2023 American Express Golf Betting Tips write-up, where I noted he was possibly due for big things that year. The player was Wyndham Clark. He would later cash 80/1 winning tickets for us at both the Wells Fargo Championship and the US Open. I’ve included Beau Hossler among the names of golfers I think could be due for a big year in 2024.

Obviously, Clark was quite the anomaly and I don’t necessarily think that Hossler will go and win a major this year. I do see parallels in his improvement over the past 6 months though, and suspect a maiden victory is imminent.

Notably, we have seen some significant improvement from Hossler’s approach play in 2023. If looking at the past 24 months, Hossler ranks a lowly 123rd in SG: APP for this field. Over the past 3 months, he ranks 20th. In fact, over the past 6 months Hossler is 12th in this field for SG: TOTAL. Possessing plenty of distance off the tee and making plenty of putts, the approach is really the final key in the puzzle for him.

Having a 20th on debut at this event, he also holds a 17th at the Byron Nelson, and most recently was 7th at the Shriners Children’s Open. That started a run of 7-2-15 in his final 3 events of 2023. Whether he can start the season with the same fervor remains to be seen. The fact he is Californian born and raised might suggest some local comfort will be an assistance.

Austin Eckroat

We enter three long-shot selections in our American Express golf betting tips, with the bet weighting favoured towards top 20 and top 40 finishes.

Beginning that list is Austin Eckroat. Hailing from Oklahoma, this is the sophomore season for Eckroat who finished the 2022 Korn Ferry Tour in 2nd place. It was a decent rookie season for him, where he finished in the Top 20 in 20% of his starts. Most notably, the 10th placed finish at the US Open would’ve caught the eye of many who were not already aware of this rising star.

That golf course should prove somewhat decent guidance to here. Unlike many other US Open venues, the tournament was also held in California at the Los Angeles Country Club. The course was fairly generous off the tee, with driving distance still a requisite skill.

Further suggesting this may be a decent spot, Eckroat had his best finish of the season at the Byron Nelson. His runner-up finish there should be well correlated to what is needed for victory this week.

K.H. Lee – American Express golf betting tips best value

We can probably keep things pretty simple with K.H. Lee. If the Byron Nelson is correlated to this tournament, K.H. Lee won that event for back-to-back victories in 2021 and 2022.

Adding to those claims, Lee’s recent run at the Shriners Children’s Open in Las Vegas has seen him finish 14-37-7 in his last three appearances there. Again, I’m not going to be overly critical of a mediocre record at this golf course. I take solace in the fact he has gained strokes putting here in 4 of 5 appearances, especially given that can be a hinderance to his performance.

Also eye-catching was Lee’s performance last week at the Sony Open. Although finishing 30th may not set the world alight, the irons looked back to their superb best sitting 6th for SG: APP. That was pleasing to see after not playing competitive golf since November. I believe he makes excellent value at 125/1.

Joseph Bramlett

Finally, I will wrap up my selections with a speculative bet on Joseph Bramlett.

Bramlett is 2nd in this field for SG: APP over the past 6 months, an impressive feat in a field with the likes of Scheffler, Cantlay, and Schauffele. It has long been the story for Bramlett that his excellent ball-striking can get left behind with the putter. That comes with some inherent risk at an event like this one. Much like Hossler, being born and going to college in California suggest that this type of surface may provide him with the best opportunity.

The desert form link at Byron Nelson is clear, where he finished 7th on debut followed by a 51st and 19th. Again, he doesn’t possess a stellar record here. However, he has made both previous cuts. Most pleasingly for our golf betting tips, he has putted at or above field average in 3/4 appearances at the American Express.

A 52nd last week was more promising than first viewed, considering it was the first event back after 6 months out with an undisclosed injury. That risk from both the rust from injury recovery and the putter do get built into the price, available at a whopping 200/1.

One and Done Tips

Finally, if you haven’t read already make sure to check out this article. The majority of One and Done golf contests began last week at the Sony Open. I have put together your ULTIMATE strategy guide to the season. I deep-dive optimal One and Done strategy, as well as preview every single tournament this year. It is well worth a bookmark in any case, to get a brief overview of each golf course on the PGA Tour this year.

You can join me in the free WinDaily One and Done contest here. It is always fun and I look forward to a wee bit of competition in 2024!

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American Express Golf Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
DeepDiveGolf provides his American Express golf preview

Before we get into the American Express preview, a quick word on last week’s golf. It was another week of near misses for us on the PGA Tour at the Sony Open. All 7 of our betting selections for the week made the cut. We again had several contenders, with 3 players in the Top 10 for the second consecutive week. The most likely of those was Russell Henley, who looked a likely winner for much of Sunday. Sitting at -8 through 13 holes, he unfortunately got the speed wobbles to play his final 5 holes at +1 and miss a play-off by a single stroke. We cash a top 5 place on him at +625.

Our best value bet was Emiliano Grillo, selected at 80/1. He just missed a top 5 and cashed his top 20 at +350. Also included was Zac Blair in 30th, who was priced at 250/1. For DFS, he was $6,300 and just 3% owned. This provided a great salary saving and leverage on the rest of the field. He easily cashed our Top 40 bet at a generous +333. All promising signs from the golf ahead of our American Express preview.

Fact is, there is always an element of luck when it comes to any sport. Overall, the process is looking very sound after a fantastic first two weeks of the season. Eventually, we will see some big winners convert as the season unfolds and the more our selections remain in close contention. It’s a strong golf tournament this week, with a decent field rivalling those seen in designated events, but we will speak about some of the inherent volatility this week in our American Express preview.

Golf Course Analysis

The American Express is the first golf tournament we preview in what I’ve colloquially dubbed “course rotation season”. That will of course be followed by two other pro-am events, with the Farmers Insurance Open and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am to follow. This can prove a nightmare for many golf punters and DFS players alike.

Of the three courses on offer, La Quinta Country Club is both the shortest at 7,060 par 72 and the easiest for scoring. The majority of these holes are very short. There are just two par 4s over 450 yards, sitting at 454 and 469 yards which is pretty standard on the PGA Tour. The four par 5s are all under 547 yards and should be reachable in two for almost all of the field.

The other two golf courses at PGA West, the Nicklaus Stadium Course and the Pete Dye Stadium Course, are about 100 yards longer and a little more difficult. Driving distance does become more of a consideration at these courses. Par 5 scoring is essential on all three courses. Therefore, having a modicum of length of the tee is a real bonus. With three rounds played on these courses, with all golfers playing the Pete Dye Stadium Course again on Sunday, we have seen an uptick in correlation between driving distance and success at this event.

Then, of course, there is the infamous Jon Rahm quote where we referred to the tournament as a “putting contest”. There may have been some more fruitful language in the full quote. In some ways, he is completely right. A score of -25 to -30 will be required here. With that comes the unpredictability of this event. Therefore, it should be no surprise the average odds of the eventual winner have been a whopping 130/1.

The American Express Golf Course Comps

It should also be no surprise in our American Express Golf Preview that course history is not that influential at PGA West. Given the volatility that comes with this tournament, it follows that prior course form isn’t a fantastic predictor of performance. Of course, if a golfer has a great history at this event it can still play a factor in your decision. Conversely, I’m not going to be overly penal on a golfer if they don’t have a stellar history at this tournament.

The AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch could provide a good parallel. The tournament is on another desert course with equally low scoring. Since moving to TPC Craig Ranch in 2021, the tournament has been won at -25, -26, and -23.

Finally, the Shriners Children’s Open played in the desert of Las Vegas bears consideration. It is another low-scoring affair where you need to shoot -6 every day to remain in contention. The short par 4s on that course are a nice correlation. Additionally, as is the uptick in SG: Putting required at TPC Summerlin.

A short word on the weather. Obviously, with three different golf courses in-play there are a confluence of factors that make any developing weather edge more difficult to discern. In positive news, the winds look dead still for the first three days of the tournament. A little wind and rain may move into the region on Sunday. It will be insufficient to put any halt on the birdie-fest.

American Express Golf Betting Tips Preview

Thank you for reading my American Express Golf preview and tournament analysis.
If you would like access to my golf betting tips and player profiles for the American Express, read this article here.
Premium customers can also find these in the WinDaily Premium Discord in the golf bets channel.

A golf betting article will also follow, with player profiles of our selections. To be released approximately 6am ET on 18 January.

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Dubai Desert Classic Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Before getting into our betting tips for the Dubai Desert Classic, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive analysis of the Majilis Course at Emirates Golf Club, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament. It also helps provide context and some of the background research behind the Dubai Desert Classic betting tips below.

A few names unlucky to miss out on the Dubai Desert Classic betting card. Yannik Paul and Thriston Lawrence make our list of golfers who just missed the card for the second week running. Paul was left off just, with others preferred at similar odds. Lawrence was again brilliant at the Dubai Invitational, and has shown good recent form in Dubai. However, he has three missed cuts here from three appearances. We would prefer to see him display something on this golf course first, especially on a course where prior course form is the most correlated of all tournaments on the DP World Tour.

At longer odds, Adri Arnaus showed some signs of life at the back-end of 2023 and has an excellent record at the Emirates. He looked truly dreadful last week, and had he shown any glimmer of form he likely would’ve made the card here. Haotong Li also looked promising at a juicy 250/1 at market open. However, that was very swiftly backed into 140/1 within half an hour making that position untenable.

Overall, it is a rather strange market this week. There is a real divide between the class of the field and the rest of the pack. Highlighting this is the lack of any golfer being priced between 50/1 to 65/1 on open.

Dubai Desert Classic Betting Tips

Updated 16 Jan 00:00AM ET
As always with early odds, prices may fluctuate as bookmakers open markets. Bet365 allows cash out and will update to reflect best prices once other release pricing
Suggested Staking

Joaquin Niemann – Your Dubai Desert Classic Favourite
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Unibet with 6 places 1/4 odds)

Adrian Meronk
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Unibet with 6 places 1/4 odds)

Ryan Fox
2.5pt E/W +3300 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Thorbjorn Olesen
2.5pt E/W +3300 (Unibet with 6 places 1/4 odds)

Jordan Smith
2pt E/W +4500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Jayden Schaper
0.5pt E/W +12500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +450 (TAB)
And
3pt Top 40 +180 (TAB)

Kalle Samooja – Your Dubai Desert Classic Best Value
0.5pt E/W +15000 (Unibet with 6 places 1/4 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +550 (TAB)
And
3pt Top 40 +210 (TAB)

Player Profiles

Joaquin Niemann – Dubai Desert Classic Betting Tips Favourite

The first name I searched for in the market was Joaquin Niemann. Initially, we were to exclude him as he opened at a short 16/1. He was not liked at that sort of price given this field. However, he drifted to 25/1 when more bookmakers released their pricing which is a lot more playable.

Overall, I suspect Niemann has developed significantly over the past year. Getting a gauge on the state of LIV Golf players still proves notoriously difficult. Particularly, the lack of strokes gained data is a major hinderance. We can look to the 5 top 10s in the 2023 LIV season for some indications. Stepping into DP World Tour level, Niemann ended 2023 with a 5th and a win in Australia.

With that win, he earned an automatic spot into the Open Championship. Niemann has slipped outside the top 50 in the world, and likely undeservedly so. He is on record speaking to unfair those current rankings are and he is desperate to qualify for the other majors. That is the reason we see him this week. Simply put, the man is on a mission.

The link between the Dubai Desert Classic and the Masters is well established. Niemann was 16th in 2023, sitting in the top 10 at the halfway stage. He is also a winner at Riviera. Much akin to Emirates Golf Club, it is another ball-strikers course where shaping your shots is imperative. It is also one of the best Masters’ form guides. We see more evidence in his 3rd place finish at the Memorial, with Muirfield a course designed by Nicklaus with Augusta National firmly in mind.

Desert golf looks to suit Niemann, with an 8th and 10th in the Saudi International and 5th in Oman noted. Expect a strong showing this week.

Adrian Meronk

If the Dubai Desert Classic has proven an excellent guide to the emerging talent on the DP World Tour, there may be none better suited than Meronk this week. It always grabs my attention when a player can perform well at their first look on a golf course. The strong driving Pole did just that, finishing 4th here on debut. Perhaps no surprise, being a golf course built perfectly for his game and being a Dubai resident.

Other Middle East form is also easy to find. Included in that is a 7th at the neighbouring Jumeirah Golf Estates for the DP World Tour Championship, a 4th and 6th at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship and a 2nd at Challenge Tour level there, a 3rd in Doha, and a 10th in Abu Dhabi. Strong driver golf courses are a key this week. The record at Marco Simon holds particular appeal, where Meronk has always performed well having a win and runner-up finish in three appearances with strong fields. Finally, a 3rd at the 2023 BMW International Open appeals, being a golf course where multiple winners have claimed both that title and the Dubai Desert Classic.

Shaking off the rust at the Dubai Invitational last week, Meronk recovered from an average first round 70 to eventually finish 10th. Particularly, the driver looked excellent sitting 2nd in the field for SG: OTT gaining both for distance and accuracy. Complimenting this was a 16th in SG: APP, leading the field in the final round for GIR. This course is an infinitely better fit. Now on the PGA Tour, he will be keen to take advantage of his limited playing opportunities on the DP World Tour. Don’t be surprised to see Meronk lift his 5th DP World Tour trophy this week.

Ryan Fox

The long-hitting Kiwi has quickly established himself as a man for the big occasion. Elevating his game in 2022 and 2023, Fox remains on the rise and deservedly also earned a PGA Tour card. It is the nature of his titles which holds the most appeal. A winner in the desert in neighbouring emirate Ras Al Khaimah, he has won both the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and the BMW PGA Championship. Those are flagship events on the DP World Tour, just as we find here this week.

Foxy’s record at the Emirates Golf Club is solid. A 30th and 41st in 2020 and 2021 were respectable with where his game was at the time. A 26th in 2022 was then followed by a 20th here last year, where he was also in the top 5 after the first round. The 20th also needs to be read in the context that he was fighting a stomach bug that week. Fox spoke about how fatigue caught up with him during that tournament. He claimed he was glad just to finish the final round. In that light, a 20th place finish in this standard of field was impressive.

Fox has a record of 26-14-3 at the heavily correlated Eichenreid and a 26th on debut at Augusta National also impressive. A finishing weekend of 68-68 at the Dubai Invitational came on a fiddly course. This should be more suitable.

Thorbjorn Olesen

Another Dubai resident, Olesen was well in contention at neighbouring Dubai Creek last week before a final round 71 derailed his title charge. Still, sitting 8th in a decent field was a promising start to the new year.

Olesen game has recovered back to it’s full skill, after some time in the wilderness. You can mark this time precisely to when found not guilty in a court case at the end of 2021, ending a turbulent period for him personally. His record at the Emirates Golf Club is excellent, reading MC-42-3-5-MC-8-32-29-7-35-16. A 4th last year at Ras Al Khaimah, won previously by strong drivers like Fox and Nicolai Hojgaard, compliments a 10th around Eichenreid and a 16th at Marco Simone.

The Masters link is also there for Olesen. He was a very impressive 6th on debut at Augusta National, with a 44th and 21st in his other two appearances there. A 7 time DP World Tour winner, victory at The Belfry in 2022 again has good links to the Dubai Desert Classic from players at both short and long odds. Finishing 2023 with a run of 17-9-9-3 suggest his game is back to it’s superb best.

Jordan Smith

It was the usual story for Jordan Smith at the Dubai Invitational last week. One of the best ball-strikers on the DP World Tour, he finished the week 3rd for SG: OTT and lead the field in SG: APP when finishing 4th. The short-game was what held him back, particularly finishing 40/60 for SG: ATG. However, his putter showed some small signs of life being a small gainer with the flatstick.

That is always the issue with Smith, where if he can find some form putting he often goes on to win. The putter has been at field average his last two appearances here, where he owns a solid record of 23-MC-29-32-60-9-20. A winner and runner-up at Ras Al Khaimah is again promising. As is the superb record at Marco Simone, where he holds a 12th and 16th the past two years. Furthermore, at Eichenried is last two appearances have been a 3rd and 8th.

He won on another driver heavy course at the Portugal Masters, giving credence to Iberian Peninsula form often seen in champions at the Dubai Desert Classic. Finally, the win at Green Eagle Golf Course is far from the worst link being the longest golf course on the DP World Tour. 45/1 looks juicy, placing him as the longest odds of a relatively small pool of likely winners.

Jayden Schaper

Delving past a fairly mediocre mid-range in this field, there are a couple of speculative selections at triple figure odds. The first of those is the young South African talent Jayden Schaper. South Africans have long held an excellent record here, beyond the great Ernie Els to golfers like Charl Schwartzel, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Richard Sterne, and Brandon Stone.

The 22 year old Schaper has oodles of natural talent and this is the tournament that has often seen emerging stars first arrive on the scene in a significant way. A strong driver of the golf ball, he hinted to his continuing development at the end of 2023 with 4 consecutive top 10 finishes when returning to the motherland.

Data Golf currently rank Schaper as 162nd in the world, compared to a ranking of just 307th in the OWGR. Large discrepancies such as this one are often an indication that we can expect some imminent correction in a big way. Winning here would likely be a surprise, but a finish inside the top 20 or 40 would not be.

Kalle Samooja – Dubai Desert Classic Betting Tips Best Value

Finally, we round out our betting tips this week with our best value bet on the board. Having expected a price in the range of 80/1 to 100/1, I am delighted to be able to add him to the card at 150/1.

As in our Dubai Desert Classic betting preview, the Majilis Course at Emirates Golf Club has the strongest links of any golf course on the DP World Tour. Samooja has the best record here of any golfer in this field not named Rory McIlroy. Form here of 16-27-4-12-38 in just five starts is truly superb, especially for a golf only hovering around the top 300 in the world.

Samooja also had a 9th last year at Marco Simone and on another driver heavy course for the Open de Espana. Further, his record at the very long Green Eagle reads 18-1-22 in his last three appearances. Much like Niemann, Samooja will need a strong performance this week. Winning a qualifying spot for the LIV Golf tour, he will soon have few opportunities to earn OWGR points, and this is a golf course that evidently suits his game.

One and Done Tips

Finally, if you haven’t read already make sure to check out this article. The majority of One and Done golf contests began last week at the Sony Open. I have put together your ULTIMATE strategy guide to the season. I deep-dive optimal One and Done strategy, as well as preview every single tournament this year. It is well worth a bookmark in any case, to get a brief overview of each golf course on the PGA Tour this year.

You can join me in the free WinDaily One and Done contest here. It is always fun and I look forward to a wee bit of competition in 2024!

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