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The Players DFS Advice: DeepDiveGolf’s DFS Player Pool and Strategies

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

DeepDiveGolf delivers his DFS player pool for The Players

Before getting into our DFS pool for The Players, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive course analysis of TPC Sawgrass, course comps, and weather for the tournament. This helps explain reason and my process behind The Players Championship DFS tips below.

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DFS Strategies for The Players Championship

Obviously, as in betting markets, the DFS salary board is shaped by Scottie Scheffler.

At an extremely expensive $12,800 and potentially over 35% ownership, we need to consider the manner of output required for him to justify that price tag.

Basically, building a DFS lineup with Scheffler immediately encounters salary cap issues. As Joel correctly proposed this question on the PGA Draftcast, it then becomes a matter of whether you can build a better DFS line-up with Scheffler or without him. As a result of the salary, you are not only seeing high ownership on Scheffler but condensed ownership further down the field in multiple spots. Essentially, we are asking him to finish 1st or runner-up.

As I wrote in my The Players Championship preview and tournament analysis, the optimal DFS theory may be to lean into the volatility that TPC Sawgrass presents. With penalties looming at every turn, simply avoiding the chalk could be more important this week than ever.

As always, contest selection and DFS line-up construction go hand in hand. For a small entrant SE contest, you can embrace more chalk and play safer. For a larger GPP, especially the millionaire maker, you are going to want to get very uncomfortable and take several players you feel uneasy about that possess tremendous upside. Leaving salary on the table is also a key consideration for the latter this week.

The Players Championship DFS Player Pool

The below is based on Draftkings salaries, with players listed by preference from left to right. We account for a combination of expected performance, key course metrics, correlated course form, approach statistics, ownership, and salary.

Salary Tier	Golfers
$10,000+	Thomas, Scheffler, Schauffele
$9,000-$9,900	Matsuyama, Lowry, Homa, Spieth, Morikawa
$8,000-$8,900	Benny An, Henley, Tom Kim, Conners, Fleetwood, Day
$7,000-$7,900	Harman, Hoge, Noren, Bezuidenhout, Bradley, Grillo, Davis, Kirk
$6,000-$6,900	Horschel, Taylor, Todd, Putnam, Hisatsune, Fox, Eckroat, Rai, Glover, Montgomery
$5,000-$5,900 AKA Dumpster Fire	Zac Blair, Brandon Wu, Power, KH Lee, Ryder, Lower, Sigg, Michael Kim, Duncan, Hadley, Lashley, Martin, CT Pan

Join Team Audience on the PGA Draftcast

Once again, thank you for your support of DeepDiveGolf and for reading The Players Championship DFS tips. Make sure you subscribe to the WinDaily Sports YouTube channel. We love seeing you in the chat to help Team Audience live draft a DFS line-up against us.

1 year ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting Golf Premium

The Players Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

TPC Sawgrass hosts The Players Betting Tips this week

Before getting into our betting tips for The Players, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of TPC Sawgrass, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind The Players Championship golf betting tips below.

You can find my latest profit and loss tracker here.

Betting Strategies for The Players

The market this week is framed by Scottie Scheffler. Priced at just 5/1 with some bookmakers, it represents one of the shortest prices we have seen in recent times and certainly in this standard of field. That comes off the back of a 5 stroke victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he finally gained strokes putting, and having won this event by that same margin in 2023.

Whether the introduction of the mallet putter proves to be a permanent and worthy solution remains to be seen. Surely, if it has then the rest of the Tour will be rather worried. Had Scheffler gained an average of just +1 strokes per round putting he would’ve won upwards of 8 tournaments in recent times. If he putts well, he likely wins here. However, 6/1 represents a fair reflection of his chances.

Additionally, I do believe we need to interpret the betting market in terms of the course as well. This tournament has ranked inside the top 6 for volatility consistently over the years.

Previous Betting Odds at The Players

This is best emphasised in the odds of close contenders. On the face of it winners of Scheffler (10/1), Smith (30/1), Justin Thomas (18/1), and Rory McIlroy (12/1) points to the top of the market dominating this event. But for a few putts, or a ball in the water at an inopportune moment, the list could easily look quite different.

For 2023, Scheffler was a runaway victor, although Hoge at 130/1 was in my selections and finished 3rd. However, in 2022 Anirban Lahiri lost by one stroke at 1000/1. In 2021, Westwood 100/1 and Harman 200/1 went close. Then in 2019, Jim Furyk lost by one at 140/1. Before that, Webb Simpson won at 100/1 in 2018 and Si Woo Kim won at 500/1 in 2017.

My point is, if there was an event to take on the top of the board and find some DFV (being Deep ***ing Value), it is on a volatile golf course such as here.

Honourable Mentions

As always, we like to include some of the names who were close to making our betting card for The Players. Whether you want to include these players in match-ups or for DFS, hopefully this proves useful.

Russell Henley

Russell Henley was extremely close to making our betting card for The Players this week. This is a golf course that suits him well. He has finished 13th and 19th the past two years, as well as a 17th and 24th in the past. Henley also holds four consecutive Top 10s at heavily correlated Sedgefield, going 9-7-5-2 since 2020. He is a much improved golfer now, finishing outside the top 25 just 6 times since the last Players Championship, a 22 tournament stretch.

However, the subsequent cut in odds has been severe. From the 150/1, when I included him in my tips at this last year, compared to just 55/1 on open in 2024 (since cut further to just 40/1) is too hard to swallow for me. Furthermore, I have began to really question his ability to get across the finish line. Sitting as one of the top 20 golfers in the world and hitting the ball as he has been, he really should’ve won at least once by now. That was demonstrated again when I selected him at the Sony Open, where he was leading before fading with a +1 final 6 hole stretch.

Other Contenders

This course looks to also be tailormade for Collin Morikawa. He had his best appearance at TPC Sawgrass in 2023 finishing 13th and holds a 7th at the Pete Dye designed Harbour Town. However, his 8-over 2nd round last week was sufficiently concerning to see him excluded.

Brendon Todd looks to be underrated and drew my consideration. Last week’s 7th place finish was at a golf course far too long for him, relying on his long irons far more than this shorter test where his superb wedges will be in-play. Unfortunately, he is available at 200/1 in the UK and on the exchange but best priced at 150/1 or lower by most bookmakers.

Finally, Christiaan Bezuidenhout drew my attention at 100/1. He also finished 13th here in 2023, and was -7 after one round here in 2020 before the tournament was suspended with the start of the COVID-19 outbreak. He also has finished 28-33-19 in three attempts at Harbour Town as well as a record of 3-40-5 at Wentworth. Continuing a downward trajectory for his SG: APP over the last 5 consecutive events hints enough that his iron-play may be regressing at this time.

The Players Championship Golf Betting Tips

Updated with best pricing 11 Mar 7PM ET
Suggested Staking

Hideki Matsuyama – The Players Betting Tips Favourite
2.5u E/W +3300 (Unibet with 7 places 1/5 odds)

Tom Kim
1u E/W +7000 (Unibet with 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +275 (Bet365)

Byeong-Hun An
1u E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +275 (Bet365)

Brian Harman
1u E/W +8000 (Unibet with 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +275 (Bet365)

Tom Hoge
1u E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +300 (Bet365)

Billy Horschel – The Players Betting Tips Best Value
0.5u E/W +16000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +425 (Bet365)
And
3u Top 40 +163 (Bet365)

Nick Taylor
0.5u E/W +17500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +450 (Bet365)
And
3u Top 40 +170 (Unibet)

Ryan Fox
0.25u E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +650 (Unibet)
And
2.5u Top 40 +200 (Bet365) or +275 (TAB)

The Players Championship Betting Player Profiles

Hideki Matsuyama – The Players Betting Tips Favourite

In that context, we begin our selections with our only betting tip on The Players card priced under 70/1. I was quite worried about Hideki Matsuyama last week. Oddly enough, not because of injury concerns in this instance. Instead, that should he win or remain competitive that his betting odds for The Players Championship would be unbackable.

It is perhaps fortunate that he found the water twice on the back 9 Sunday to eventually finish 12th. Subsequently, the strength of his approach performance is hidden somewhat by those two shots as outliers to his overall ball-striking.

Overall, he looks to be back to his very best. Beyond the excellent performance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational he won the Genesis Invitational, with both being signature events and high caliber fields. Compared to those two courses, I actually think this is a better course fit for Matsuyama. He does his best work with his irons under 150 yards, with both those courses leaning more heavy on the long irons than wedges.

He holds a fabulous record at TPC Sawgrass right from debut with a form line of 23-17-7-22-MC-8-MC-5. Hidden in those results is the 2020 The Players Championship which wasn’t, where he set the then course record of -9 in the first round before the tournament was canned. Additionally, he has done well at the correlated Sedgefield with a 3rd, 11th, and 15th there.

As such, I was pleased to see him listed at longer than 25/1 to head up our betting card this week.

Tom Kim

We near immediately enter the speculative plays of The Players betting card. I’m willing to take a punt on Tom Kim at the generous odds of 70/1.

The reason for his pricing here is down to the fact that 2024 has been a relatively poor start of the year. Despite missing just one cut, he has finished no higher than 17th this calendar year. Much of that has come down to the putter, which I raised concerns earlier this season might be a bigger problem for Tom Kim than many are making.

Is Tom Kim's putter quietly officially broken?#WMPO #WMPhoenixOpen #PGADFS #GolfBets
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) February 11, 2024

However, of some promise is that Tom Kim is now four tournaments in a row putting at or above the field average. Certainly, it is not the +4 strokes or more per tournament he was gaining putting when he was on a run of 9 consecutive Top 25s in the end of 2023. But it is a positive trajectory I’m happy to roll the dice on at this price. Similar to Matsuyama, his approach play last week is disguised by a ball in the water Friday and two on Sunday. Outside those three shots, he gained +5.48 SG: APP which was 3rd best in the tournament. On a volatile and windy golf course, the misses are something I can give or take.

I’ve spoken extensively of the correlation to Sedgefield Country Club. Tom Kim opened with a quadruple bogey in his sole Wyndham Championship appearance. He would then still go on to win the tournament, by the small margin of 5 strokes. Should he win here, he would be the 4th player to complete that double.

Byeong-Hun An

Byeong-Hun An continues to be disrespected in betting markets despite compiling a superb season. It may be surprising to some, but Benny An has been the 8th best golfer in this field over the last 6 months for raw SG: TOTAL.

Included in that is another solid performance when 8th last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. That came in spite of losing on approach for 200+ yards for the last 12 months. He is much stronger in the 100-150 yard approach range, which is really what TPC Sawgrass demands.

Back on the DP World Tour, Benny An won the prestigious BMW PGA Championship on his debut there in 2015 subsequently followed up with a 33-24-15 run before moving to the PGA Tour. He additionally holds a 7th at the RBC Heritage. As for the Sedgefield form, that reads 18-MC-3-35 before he was runner-up in 2023.

Although he hasn’t ever fully translated that to performances at The Players Championship, the Orlando FL resident does hold a 30-26-MC-35 run. That was also when he was in nowhere near the form he is now. He has not missed a cut since July 2023, including 5 finishes of 8th or better. His 2022 Korn Ferry Tour victory also came in Florida on a similar enough course. He would love to complete his resurgent return to the PGA Tour in emphatic style here.

Brian Harman

Another who performed his expected output at the Arnold Palmer Invitational was Brian Harman. On a course that is realistically far too long for him, he finished 12th whilst also being 4th in the field for SG: APP.

That really belies the fact that he struggles on approach longer than 200 yards, with his real strength lying with his short game and his wedge play. The fact he actually lost strokes putting was another interesting data point. The fact he sits 7th in this field for putting over the last 12 months suggests some positive putting regression could be just around the corner.

Harman has typically putted well at The Players Championship, gaining strokes putting in 4/5 of his most recent appearances. 8th in 2015 and 2019, as well as a 3rd place finish in 2021, all suggest that he should find some comfort in this venue while arriving off a great recent start.

Complimenting this are finishes of 3rd and 6th at the Wyndham Championship and 7-44-9-23-MC-28-13-35-7 at the RBC Heritage. It would be no surprise to see The Open Championship winner put in another impressive performance in a strong field here.

Tom Hoge

Much like Russell Henley, Tom Hoge was on our card here last year. In 2023, he arrived here having just missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He was priced at 130/1 when making our tips and finished 3rd for a juicy full place payout. So to see him only cut to 80/1 when in better form held much appeal.

Instead, we find him here in a great run of 17-56-6-17-8-28 followed by12th at the Arnold Palmer last week. We were on him there too, where he easily cashed his Top 20 ticket and went very close to a full place payout at +1600. Whilst doing so, he lead the field for SG: APP.

He has always played well at TPC Sawgrass, with form of 72-30-22-33-3. The 2020 tournament that wasn’t he opened with another solid -2 start as well. In his only appearance at Wentworth he finished 14th on debut, again suggesting this should be a strong venue for him.

Alongside being the best player in this field on approach over the last 3 months, I noted some significant improvement in driving accuracy over his last two starts. Typically a small loser or at best driving at the same accuracy at field average, he was 12th for driving accuracy last week and 7th for driving accuracy the week prior. He looks very close to putting it all together and I am happy to roll with Hoge again this week.

Billy Horschel – The Players Betting Tips Best Value

Shoutout to Team Audience, who ruined my hopes and dreams on the PGA Draftcast this week by stealing Billy Horschel away from me. You can catch the replay of the show at the end of this article.

Horschel absolutely jumped off the page for me this week. His performance on tight fiddly courses, such as the 18th at the Sony Open earlier this year. That was backed up by a solid Florida outing at the Cognizant Classic, when finishing 9th in his last start.

This passionate Floridian, who also is a former Florida Gator, has never won in the state and is on the record saying how much that would mean to him: “There’s a lot of goals I haven’t checked off and I’ve always wanted to win in the state of Florida, obviously more than once, but before my career is over,” said Horschel, a graduate of the University of Florida and resident of Jacksonville Beach.

If he is to do so, TPC Sawgrass on paper is a great venue. He holds an extremely strong record at Wentworth, never finishing worse than 18th with a 4-W-9-18 run in just four starts. Further, at the Wyndham Championship he has a 5-60-11-6-2-27-4 form line. Although this has never necessarily correlated to great success here, he only has two MC here before the dark years if 2022 and 2023. Included in that was a best finish of 13th.

Overall, this translates to some excellent value at odds as high as 160/1.

Nick Taylor

This will be the 2nd instance of me including Nick Taylor within these pages. It is fair to say the last time went pretty well.

LET's GO! BOOM!!! 🔥💥

Nick Taylor buries it from a massive 72 feet and secures us ANOTHER outright winner at 66/1 🤯

Stay hot @WinDailySports 🔥🌶️🥵#RBCCanadianOpen #RBCCO #CanadianOpen https://t.co/Lz3hFjHKzU pic.twitter.com/LKNLTSRrc5
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) June 11, 2023

It amazes me that you can secure Nick Taylor at odds as long as 175/1. The RBC Canadian Open win came at a tight driving test with a heavy reliance on wedge play. He recently secured another huge victory at the WM Phoenix Open in a strong field. He backed that up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational when finishing 12th last week. Both of those came at golf courses that actually doesn’t necessarily play to his strong driving accuracy and are, on paper, too long for him.

This is a much better fit, where he can really lean into his driving accuracy and strong approach play under 150 yards. He finished 16th here back in 2019, sitting 3rd in the tournament that week for SG: APP. An 8th and 10th at Sedgefield are another strong pointer towards a golfer who is criminally underpriced.

Ryan Fox

Finally, I can’t resist a small speculative play on Ryan Fox.

Needless to stay, it has not been a great start to 2024 for Fox since securing his PGA Tour card. Having had a lifelong goal of making the PGA Tour, perhaps this is a factor of needing to reset his goals now he has achieved that.

The main reason for the drop-off in that form has been a regression in his approach performance. We saw some more promising signs when last sighted. That came at a similar enough golf course here in Florida at the Cognizant Classic. He finished 12th for SG: APP at that event, gaining more than 4 strokes on approach.

Although there are concerns with driving accuracy for Fox, he has typically performed well enough on courses that demand that. Included in those are a 14th at the Dubai Invitational, on a narrow course with plenty of water, and in 2022 at the Soudal Open on a very tight tree-lined golf course. The latter of those results came when cracking the shaft on his 2-iron in the final round, a club he quite often will go too off the tee when needing to find the fairway. Further, he is the current BMW PGA Championship winner, beating Aaron Rai at Wentworth

A 27th on debut at TPC Sawgrass was impressive for Fox, on a golf course that typically requires a couple of sightings to really understand. Perhaps the famous 2002 victory of fellow Kiwi Craig Perks can provide some inspiration for Foxy here.

Join Team Audience on the PGA Draftcast

Once again, thank you for your support of DeepDiveGolf and for reading The Players Championship betting tips. Make sure you subscribe to the WinDaily Sports YouTube channel. We love seeing you in the chat to help Team Audience live draft a DFS line-up against us.

1 year ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting Golf

The Players Preview 2024: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

The iconic TPC Sawgrass plays host as we preview The Players Championship 2024

The PGA Tour descends upon TPC Sawgrass, where this iconic course plays host once again to the “5th Major” as we preview The Players Championship 2024. Perhaps contentious is to argue whether this still represents the best field in golf. Yes, the field is undoubtedly weakened compared to previous iterations. The shame, for golf fans more than anything else, is that such a field with all the best players no longer exists due to the rather political current state of the game of professional men’s golf.

You do realize it can still be the best field in golf and also be weaker than it previously was because LIV has split the game. These two things are not mutually exclusive.
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) March 10, 2024

My stance is this is still the best we get. It is true both in terms of depth but also the size of the field. Surely, the best field in golf is the most difficult to beat. That remains true statistically, just. Arguments could be made for the US Open and The Open Championship. Until then, we wait for the powers that be to reunite the game (hopefully).

Another great week, especially on the DP World Tour. We had 2nd place Jordan Smith in our tips, as well as a great run from 190/1 selection Pavan in South Africa.

If we were to lose to one golfer this week, it would have to be Matteo Manassero!

If you've not been following #DPWorldTour, here is a summary.
⚠️Long Post Warning⚠️

Matteo was clearly an extremely talented youngster, becoming the World Number 1 amateur. At 16 years old he was… pic.twitter.com/AIFzcUkUjl
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) March 10, 2024

At the Puerto Rico Open, all 6 of our tips made the cut. 5/6 of our golf betting tips finishing 23rd or better. Victor Perez was our strongest as he finished 3rd, just one shot outside the playoff.

Alongside all The Players betting tips, we already have some juicy Masters futures for 2024 in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord. These are delivering great closing line value.
We’ve already hit Matthieu Pavon at a MASSIVE 125/1 to start 2024 with a bang!

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The Players Preview: TPC Sawgrass Course Analysis

Assisting our preview of The Players this week is a return to a regular venue. TPC Sawgrass has hosted this event since 1982, so he have a ton of data to deep-dive into.

Despite not being the longest course at 7,275 yards par 72, this track always proves a stern test. Winning scores in the low to mid teens have been common here. Much of that comes down to the abundant water hazards on the course, with water in-play on 17 of the 18 holes. Rough is a thick 3.5in ryegrass and is penal. Greens are small at just under 5,500 sq ft on average. And we see a return to poa annua surfaces, which we will experience on the majority of courses in Florida.

This eye-test is reflected in the data. The course ranks in the top 5 highest penalties for missed fairways and in the top 6 for number of penalties every year since 2015. Therefore, driving accuracy is a large predictor of success here. The course actually ranks inside the top 10 shortest for average driving distance as players seek to find the short stuff.

Approach is also tricky. TPC Sawgrass has ranked as the 2nd, 2nd, and 1st most difficult on the tour for approach under 150 yards over the last 3 years. We also see a disproportionate number of shots within those ranges compared to a typical PGA Tour venue.

Find the fairways, nail or wedges, avoid the water, and make your putts is the recipe for success at TPC Sawgrass.

The Players Preview: TPC Sawgrass Course Comps

Course history is not actually overly strong at TPC Sawgrass. The volatile nature of the golf course explains that fact. However, another benefit to our preview of The Players is it has one of the strongest correlations to another golf course that we will see all year.

Sedgefield Country Club, host of the Wyndham Championship, is extremely correlated to success at TPC Sawgrass. Si Woo Kim has not only won at both, but also has an additional 9th here to compliment a 2nd, 3rd, and 5th at Sedgefield. Webb Simpson loves the Wyndham Championship so much he named his daughter after the event. He is also a winner of The Players Championship. You can also add Henrik Stenson down as another to complete the winning double. It should be your key guide as you preview The Players field this week.

Other parallels can be found at the RBC Heritage host Harbour Town, another fiddly course designed by Pete Dye. It puts pressure on finding fairways and on short approach shots.

From the DP World Tour, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth makes some nice links. Viktor Hovland has finished 5th there in 2022 and 2023 while finishing 9th and 3rd at The Players the same year. Aaron Rai has finished 14th and 2nd at Wentworth and finished an admirable 19th in his only appearance at TPC Sawgrass. Shane Lowry has a win, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 6th, 11th, 13th, 15th, 17th and 18th around Wentworth. He also has an 8th, 13th and 16th at TPC Sawgrass. Christiaan Bezuidenhout also links the two courses nicely. He holds a 3rd and 5th at Wentworth, plus finished 13th at The Players and also has the sneaky hidden -7 1st round in 2020 before the tournament was suspended at the start of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Weather

TPC Sawgrass, with it’s premium on accuracy and exposed nature, has seen some significant weather edges develop in recent iterations.

Perhaps most notably was in 2022. The entire industry was on a singular weather wave due to significant winds in the forecast. We took a contrarian stance to the industry, spotting a high risk of thunderstorms meaning play was likely to be delayed. We got the weather spot on, and enjoyed huge leverage as a result with the biggest weather edge of the season.

Both Thursday and Friday represent a similar forecast in terms of wind. There are easier conditions in the morning leading to higher gusts in the afternoon. The only wrinkle in this is that heavy rain and thunderstorms are once again on the cards for the Friday afternoon. Saturday afternoon looks very windy, but the morning should be calm until about midday.

At this stage, the forecast still remains a little uncertain. If you were to hedge your bets, it may again pay to be a little contrarian. Target those going Thursday AM and Friday PM in the hope thunderstorms delay play. This would push those groups to a calmer Saturday morning. As always, check-in to the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord for the latest in the forecast.

The Players Championship Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips for The Players Championship, you can preview these in our golf betting tips article posted here shortly or live now in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

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1 year ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting Golf Premium

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Bay Hill Club & Lodge golf course hosts our Arnold Palmer Invitational betting tips

Before getting into our betting tips for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of Bay Hill Club & Lodge, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind the Arnold Palmer Invitational golf betting tips below.

You can find my latest profit and loss tracker here.

Xander Schauffele heads the list of close contenders for the Arnold Palmer Invitational betting card. I expect he will play well this week, given his correlated form at TPC Scottsdale and the US Open. Having now not won since July 2022, I simply found his odds of +1800 difficult to swallow in this class of field.

Rory McIlroy would make a very simple way to approach the week and was tempting. Especially, this is true in a week with three tournaments worthy of substantial coverage. He has looked to be trending of late, and could well go close at a golf course he very clearly loves.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking
Posted in WinDaily Sports Premium Discord Monday 4 March 17:30 ET

Tommy Fleetwood
2.5u E/W +2500 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)

Cam Young
2u E/W +3300 (Unibet with 6 places 1/5 odds)

Matt Fitzpatrick – Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Betting Tips Favourite
2.5u E/W +3300 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)

Adam Scott
2u E/W +5000 (Unibet with 6 places 1/5 odds)

Corey Conners
1u E/W +6000 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +170 (Bet365)

Tom Hoge
1u E/W +8000 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +220 (Bet365)

Lucas Glover – Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Betting Tips Best Value
0.5u E/W +15000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3u Top 20 +300 (Unibet)

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Player Profiles

Tommy Fleetwood

It may seem a bit odd to begin the betting card with two golfers who have taken a pretty hard time from the industry surrounding their ability to close out a victory. Generally, I think it is fair to say the public are too harsh in such circumstances. A substantial part of luck does play a part in who can get across the line come Sunday. And I think Fleetwood fits that bill.

Fleetwood won recently on the DP World Tour at the Dubai Invitational, closing where Rory McIlroy could not. That was an exposed windy track with plenty of water in play and using bermudagrass. Although not as long as what we will find here, those parallels do remain. The simple fact for Fleetwood is more the fact he doesn’t put himself in contention enough more than his ability to finish the win.

Before the Dubai win, he had held just one 54-hole lead on the DP World Tour in 10 years. He boasts an excellent record at the US Open, finishing 5th in 2023 and an additional runner-up in 2018 and 4th in 2017. In terms of his record at Bay Hill, he finished 3rd here in 2019 alongside finishing 10th in 2017 and 2021.

A 10th when last sighted at the Genesis Invitational holds promise. Certainly, he remains one of the best approach players on tour from 200+ yards. Additionally, he has won at higher totals previously. He has only won once when scoring reached further than -19. Further, he has won three times at -11 to -12 which looks like a winning total this week. He looks like a great betting selection at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Cam Young

Unlike Fleetwod, Cam Young has not managed to win anywhere in the world. He had another wonderful opportunity to do so at the Dubai Desert Classic. Unfortunately, he continued to fold every opportunity he found himself once again in contention on the Sunday. Certainly, Rory McIlroy holds a fabulous record both at Bay Hill and Emirates Golf Club. He was the eventual winner ahead of Young for his 4th Dubai Desert Classic victory, but he links the two tournaments nicely.

The long and short of it is that his game looks to be in sharp shape. 4th most recently at the Cognizant Classic came on a golf course that demands his strongest club, the driver, to remain in the bag often. A recent 8th at the WM Phoenix Open is a nice correlation with TPC Scottsdale holding strong links for betting guidance to the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Two attempts at this tournament for returns of a 13th and 10th are rock solid, especially considering this was still a full-field event during those instances. His excellent approach from 200+ yards will hold him in good stead at this tournament with his putter also showing some nice signs of life. A tough test such as this may just be the spot for Cam Young to sneak past the winning post and shake the monkey off his back.

Matt Fitzpatrick – Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Betting Tips Favourite

A rather easy selection on Fitzpatrick this week. Fitzpatrick is 2nd only behind Scheffler for approach from 200+ yards in this field over the last 12 months. Certainly, it comes as no surprise then that he boasts a fantastic record at Bay Hill where he has finished 27-13-MC-2-9-10-9-14.

Further ties can come from being the US Open winner in 2022 and a record at TPC Scottsdale of 10-29-15 in just three starts. Fitzpatrick has continued to add distance through his speed training and this will only be of further benefit to his chances this week in Arnold Palmer Invitational betting markets.

Fitzpatrick was more likely to be found in the mid 20s were he in any substantial recent form. However, the 21st finish last week at the Cognizant Classic did show some signs of promise with two rounds of 67 and finding himself on the wrong side of a substantial 1.5-stroke weather draw. His PGA Tour wins have come at -6 and -17. Additionally, his DP World Tour wins have all come at -19 or higher with 8/9 of them coming at -17 or higher.

Adam Scott

I was quite surprised to find the betting number available on Adam Scott at the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week. Fair to say, Scott has been superlative form for quite some time, finishing 20th or better since October last year.

This is the exact type of test that Scott thrives in. A prolific winner on the PGA Tour, 9/14 of his PGA Tour victories have come at -12 or higher. That is demonstrated in his 6 finishes of 14th or better at the US Open. Further, correlation can be found with most recently finishing 8th at TPC Scottsdale. That came during a tournament he has typically avoided and in only his second appearance at that event. A pair of 3rd place finishes around Bay Hill

A student of the game, history matters deeply to Scott, and winning at this historically notable tournament would be a feather in his cap he would love to add in the latter years of his professional golfing career.

Corey Conners

It is with some minor trepidation Corey Conners is added to our Arnold Palmer Invitational betting card.

The negative, as always, is with the putter. Putting does generally have a higher weighting at this tournament historically than other PGA Tour events. As per my preview article, much of that stems from the large nature of these green complexes. That may be a cause of concern, given the ineptiude that Conners often displays with the flat-stick. Struggling at the US Open also does hold some concerns for me.

On the positive side, Conners has generally performed better with the putter here than in other performances. He finished 3rd here in 2021 when gaining 4 strokes putting. He also gained strokes putting here in 2023 and finished 11th in 2022 despite losing strokes putting. Further, he is a two-time winner at the Valero Texas Open.

In some similarity to the Arnold Palmer Invitational, that event has multi-tiered large green complexes, and lag putting can prove a real asset at that tournament. Conners ranks 7th in this field for SG: APP over 200+ yards over the last 12 months and is also strong from 150-200 yards. Those two factors see him undervalued in current betting markets for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Particularly, in the Top 20 betting markets.

Tom Hoge

Hoge looks to be right at his very best with his irons of late, and arriving at a golf course where quality ball striking has been a real strength.

Finishing 17th or better in 4/6 most recent tournaments already tells a lot as to the level he is currently competing. Included within that was a 17th at TPC Scottsdale, a course where he had previously finished 14th as well. Additionally, he has a 26th and 15th-placed finish in his first two appearances at this golf course. His further three appearances haven’t been much to write home about.

However, I would note the two missed cuts both came right on the number with what can be a volatile golf course given the amount of water. Further, one of the single shot missed cuts came when losing 5 strokes putting in just two rounds on a golf course he has always gained putting in all of his 4 other appearances. Hoge ranks within the top 15 from both 200+ and 150-200 yards on approach within this field.

Recent form in signature events of 6th and 8th came on two quite different golf courses. He looks in superb touch and seems well-placed for another excellent finish this week.

Lucas Glover – Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Betting Tips Best Value

Finally, we round out our betting card with a deep long-shot on Lucas Glover.

There is simply no chance that Glover would be found in the bottom 10% of the betting board was this tournament held just 6 months ago. Much of that came from some dramatic improvement with the putter; the perenially deficit found in Glover’s game.

Of promise is his prior putting form at this tournament. Glover had provided positive performances or at the field average when putting at this tournament in 9/14 appearances at Bay Hill. That has included 5 Top 20s here, all when not playing to the standard we saw in the tail-end of the 2023 season proper.

Aside from that, he is also a US Open champion and displays excellent approach metrics. Whether this test now proves a little too long given his age is what remains to be seen. However, his excellent driving accuracy and ball-striking provide a modicum of confidence he may avoid the worst of this penal test. And, at 150/1, we don’t have to pay much to find out here.

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1 year ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting Golf

Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Bay Hill Club is the golf course hosting this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview

Before delving into our Arnold Palmer Invitational preview, thank you for your understanding with missing the article last week. Sometimes life gets in the way, and a combination of some recent minor surgery and a house move meant the full golf coverage needed to go by the wayside. Thank you for all the kind words.

PGA National bared its teeth again, not just for the players but also for our selections. A little unlucky as Noren missed a place payout for us by one shot at +1200. However, we cashed his Top 20 at +240. Sam Ryder (150/1) was also in contention for a juicy +3000 place for most of the tournament. He slipped down the field Saturday to miss the Top 20 by one, with a bogey on the final hole. As a consolation, we cashed the Top 40 on him at +190.

We return to a happy hunting ground. Bay Hill has been kind to us for the last couple of years. The highlight was hitting Kurt Kitayama as the winner in 2023 alongside a full place on Hatton in 4th. But also, 2022 was an excellent event for our tips. Gary Woodland looked a likely winner at 80/1 before a double bogey-bogey finish saw him finish in 5th just 2 shots off the winning mark. We complimented that with Viktor Hovland and Lucas Herbert both finishing in the top 7 as well.

Last year we gave you Hovland, Woodland, and Herbert with the three finishing 7th or better.

This year we gave you WINNER Kitayama +6000.
Hatton also with a full place payout in 4th.

Only @WinDailySports 🔥⛳️#APInv #ArnoldPalmer #ArnoldPalmerInvitational https://t.co/n5iP4qpLHO
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) March 5, 2023

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview Course Analysis

Bay Hill Club & Lodge possesses one of the highest correlations on the PGA Tour of prior course form to success. Only Augusta National, Riviera Country Club, and TPC Scottsdale have a higher connection. This penal, difficult test does have a few nuances that explain this and should guide our thinking entering our Arnold Palmer Invitational preview.

You will hear a lot about driving distance being key this week. This, however, does require a little more scrutiny than simply accepting that fact at face value. The true reasoning for this is not simply that a bomb and gouge approach will work here for our Arnold Palmer Invitational preview. Rather, the extremely juicy 3 in Ryegrass rough requires some strength to escape. Driving distance is a factor of club head speed, which is extremely helpful on long approach shots from rough.

That is reiterated by the disproportionate number of approach shots that will occur from over 200 yards. Notably, the par 3s play are the longest on the regular PGA Tour stops. Simply, the longer hitters will be holding more loft in their hands. Therefore, allowing for a higher apex for those long iron shots when approaching these firm and fast green complexes.

Fairways are reasonably wide with an average width of 33 yards at the 300-yard mark and 39 yards at the 325 mark. SG: PUTT is highly correlated to success here. Green complexes are very large at an average of 7,500 sq ft. The uptick in putting performance is predominantly because precisely where you are on the greens matters above simply GIR. Additionally, the lengthened approach shots into many holes can result in longer putts to be made.

Bay Hill Course Comps

As previously mentioned, course history should form a large part of any Arnold Palmer Invitational preview. Do take a look at round 4 from the 2022 tournament. That round suffered significant winds, which we expect to see here on Saturday.

There are a few additional courses that can guide your thinking. As mentioned, the US Open like setup should mean the majority of those host venues can provide guidance. Host of the 2022 PGA Championship Southern Hills holds similar metrics and was also a windy event. TPC Scottsdale also shows similarities to here. That occurs both demanding long approach play but the reasonably large fairways where there is a significant penalty if straying too far.

Weather

Before diving into our weather preview for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, we need to speak about the tournament format. This is the same situation as we saw recently at the Genesis Invitational. 69 players are competing this week. The top 50 players and ties will make the cut or any golfers within 10 strokes of the lead after 36 holes.

Although this means there is unlikely to be a weather wave edge, weather can still have a positive influence on your selections. Florida has an El Nino weather pattern, where winter is unusually cold and wet. There has been additional torrential rain recently, best highlighted by the necessity to delay to a Monday finish at last week’s Cognizant Classic. Wednesday should see more heavy rain the day before the tournament starts. Scoring should still be high, but perhaps all the rain will see conditions play a bit softer than we usually see at this event.

Additionally, heavy winds are forecast on Saturday. Sunday also has the chance for high winds depending when thunderstorms occur. Our selections were influenced by these factors when compiling our betting tips for the week.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, you can preview these in our golf betting tips article here or the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

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1 year ago 0 comments

DP World Tour Sports Golf

Magical Kenya Open Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

After a swing of tournaments in the Middle East, the DP World Tour ventures to their second preview of Africa for the Magical Kenya Open. This tournament is always a lot of fun and has produced some thrilling finishes. Much of that comes down to the golf course, as we preview the Magical Kenya Open host Muthaiga Golf Club.

Muthaiga Golf Club host our Magical Kenya Open Preview

The difference between Muthaiga and the PGA Tour Mexico Open venue this week, Vidanta Vallarta, are that they are as polar opposite to each other as they are geographically. This got me thinking about many of the DP World Tour players who have made their way to Mexico this week. Someone like Bjork could be much more suited to the course in Kenya than the one he will face this week.

Perhaps we will see a trend develop in time, with those who hold duel access selecting where they play more on the venue than which Tour is on first glance seemingly paying the most money. It is certainly interesting times we are living in for those of us in the golf industry.

Dial-in on H2H Match-ups this week

The specific nature of the course this week can produce wonderful opportunities for mismatches in rounds 3 and 4 matchups, where you can get two golfers with quite different player profiles who have achieved their score via different means. Keep an eye on the WinDaily Premium Discord for opportunities as we spot them!

Did you miss the below? Again?!#GenesisInvitational
R4 Match-ups
❌Harman over Aberg +138
✅Burns over Power -164
✅C Bez over Todd -125
✅Henley over Kitayama +105
✅English over Day +100
❌All 5 +2662
✅4-folds
✅Boxed Trebles
✅Boxed Doubles
20u in, 42.055u out

Why not… https://t.co/l7SdXs207H
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) February 19, 2024

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Magical Kenya Open Preview Muthaiga Course Analysis

Onto a preview of the golf course then, where the Magical Kenya Open returns once again to Muthaiga Golf Club.

It is very important to note to use course history this week. Despite hosting events in Kenya since 1967, the event has alternated between Muthaiga and Karen Country Club. 2022 and 2023 were both held at the current venue, as were 2017 and 2018 on the Challenge Tour. 2019 and 2021 were played at Karen CC, as were Challenge Tour events from 2013-2016. You get the idea. Although I wouldn’t totally discount form at Karen, this is quite a different test.

I’ll note the Seve factor as well. How often do you see a winning Spanish golfer commenting how “Seve Ballesteros won at this course” and that provided inspiration for them? The effect is real and provides such huge emotional motivation for Spanish players. Seve won this event back in 1978 at Muthaiga and we have seen other Spaniards play well here since. This includes last year’s winner, Jorge Campillo.

Although on paper the golf course looks long enough at 7,228 yards for a par 71, bear in mind that Nairobi is at an altitude of 6,000 feet. That sees the golf ball travel quite significantly further in the air. In fact, the distance increase is up to 20% in the modern age of golf ball technology.

40 years since @KenBrownGolf won in Kenya, he compares his 1984 yardage book to the one the players will use this week 🤯#MKO2024 pic.twitter.com/5EvvG9QG7a
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) February 19, 2024

Driving Accuracy the Key to Success

Where Muthaiga gets it’s defense is in the extremely narrow nature of the course. There is barely in runout from the fairway before you are in the towering trees.

Past champion Jeremy Robinson said: “Muthaiga is a narrow course – I think they’ve changed a few of the holes but I remember that being the overriding factor, it being narrow. You had to drive the ball straight because the rough was pretty thick and it wasn’t a long course, even in those days. Hit the ball straight, get used to the grain on the greens, the different grasses, and it’s more of a thinker’s course, unlike a lot of the courses today that favour longer hitters.”

Robinson went on to note how the unique grass types and nature of the course would prove difficult on debut; a sentiment I largely agree with.

It is no wonder then that we have seen some of the straightest hitters on tour find success here. Other links can be found in those who have played well at altitude previously. Perhaps the ability to best adjust to yardages plays a factor there. Greens are very small and scoring should not get out of control.

Muthaiga Golf Club Course Comps

Strangely enough, one of the better course comps for our Magical Kenya Open preview comes from the Swiss Alps. Crans-sur-Sierre is of course also played at altitude, but is a narrow course emphasising driving accuracy and small greens. Soderberg has found success on both courses, with Thriston Lawrence winning at Crans and runner-up at Muthaiga both on debut.

Valderrama is a very narrow, tree-lined test that has favoured the accurate drivers with sharp approach play. Players such as Kinhult link the two, finishing 8th at Muthaiga and 6th at Valderrama later that year. Catlin finished 15th on debut appearance at Muthaiga, a fine performance for a first start, and holds a record at Valderrama of W-11-11.

Le Golf National asks similar questions, but in a different way. The penalty at the Open de France host for a wayward driver is often a watery end. Again, greens are small with penalty severe for a miss. Kinhult also has a 5th there. He may well have made the Magical Kenya Open preview betting card had he shown any glimpse of form in the last 6 months. Julien Brun has gone 13-7 at Muthaiga and 13-6 at Le Golf National. It should provide a fascinating host course for the 2024 Paris Olympics, but is a handy guide for our Magical Kenya Open preview.

Weather

High winds are forecast for Nairobi to begin the week. Wind gusts above 30mph are no joke, even with some protection from the tall trees on this property.

Some rain is set to develop on Friday afternoon. As long as this does not become too severe this could prove beneficial in softening the greens, which can play pretty fast at times. If the rain becomes heavy in conjunction with the wind, it could become very difficult.

As the winds are quite consistent all day, I don’t think a substantial weather edge will develop for week long. You may see a small edge for those playing Thursday AM/Friday PM if light rain softens and slows greens. The caveat for that will come from the level of rain experienced Friday afternoon. For DFS purposes, I think a case could be made for building a number of line-ups in each direction to provide protection and leverage on the field.

Magical Kenya Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Magical Kenya Open, you can preview these in this article here in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

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1 year ago 0 comments

DP World Tour Sports Golf Premium

Magical Kenya Open Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Before getting into our betting tips for the Magical Kenya Open, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive course analysis of Muthaiga Golf Club, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind the Magical Kenya Open golf betting tips below.

You can find my latest profit and loss tracker here.

Honourable Mentions

As always, those who made the short-list before being unceremoniously ripped out because of some perceived short-coming. As mentioned in my Magical Kenya Open preview article, Kinhult may have made the betting card given his seamless course correlations. However, he has been truly dreadful over the past 6 months. Even the smallest glimmer of what looked like a golf swing could well have seen him included.

Kazuki Higa (80/1) is one who is an accurate driver and could do well here. He was last sighted finishing 11th in Mauritius and boasts a 6th in the Open de France along with a 36th at Crans in just one start at both events. Having not played since December does raise some questions as to where he has been and the state of his game. As mentioned, the Seve factor can play a small part in decisions. Both Santiago Tarrio (100/1) and Angel Hidalgo (125/1) due some attention. Tarrio is on a 26-3 record here last two starts. Hidalgo finished 17th on debut here and holds a 4th at the correlated Valderrama.

Jamie Donaldson (125/1) drew consideration as well. He is excellent in the wind and some fair old gusts are forecast this week. He has a 3rd, 7th, and 9th at Crans as well as a 5th, 6th, and 6th at Le Golf National and a 4th and 10th at Valderrama. His price was slightly a tad too long, when hoping for a longer price on a golfer making his debut appearance at Muthaiga and only showing glimmers of form his last couple of starts.

Muthaiga Golf Club hosts our Magical Kenya Open betting tips

Magical Kenya Open Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking
Posted in WinDaily Premium Discord Monday 19 Feb at 06:00AM ET

Thriston Lawrence – Magical Kenya Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite
5u E/W +1600 (Unibet with 6 places 1/5 odds)

Aaron Cockerill
2u E/W +3000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Adrian Otaegui
2u E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

“Nacho” Ignacio Mijares Elvira
1u E/W +5500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +260 (Bet365)

Masahiro Kawamura – Magical Kenya Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value
1u E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +280 (Bet365)

Matthias Schwab
0.5u E/W +14000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +475 (Bet365)
And
2u Top 40 +170 (Bet365)

Player Profiles

Thriston Lawrence – Magical Kenya Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite

Long-term readers of these pages will be well aware it is rare for me to go heavy up the top of a betting board. The beauty of golf is that any player can win on their day. With large fields of up to 156 players, golf betting provides some of the best opportunities for leverage over the bookmaker.

It should come to attention when I do so. Although not the shortest odds we have ever taken, South African Thriston Lawrence presents an extremely appealing profile this week. He is worthy of a 10 unit total stake at 16/1. That represents a third of our total stake this week, allowed for by reducing to 6 selections and weighting accordingly.

The course form and correlated performances are impeccable. Lawrence finished 2nd here in his sole appearance. He then went on to win at Crans-sur-Sierre 5 months later. He also holds a 6th at Valderrama and a 20th and 35th at Le Golf National.

After a major deep-dive into a basically new golf course at the Dubai Invitational, I mentioned correlation to those similar courses. Lawrence was mentioned and duly finished 2nd alongside Rory McIlroy and just behind Tommy Fleetwood. A small drop-off in form holds some minor concerns.

However, a return to the motherland of Africa where he has done some of his best may well revitalize him. Perhaps most pleasing with Lawrence is that when in contention, he so often finds a way to win. 4 wins in 2022 and 2023 demonstrate as such. Two of those wins came in Africa. Let’s hope he can add a third this week.

Aaron Cockerill

Aaron Cockerill is in superb form of late. I have been waiting specifically for the Magical Kenya Open to betting him. It nearly cost us a big drop in odds here, as were he to have completed a victory the inevitable plunge would’ve occurred.

Since 3rd December, Cockerill played 5 consecutive tournaments finishing 25th or better. Most notably for me was the 4th at the Dubai Desert Classic, 6th at the Bahrain Championship, and 23rd at Ras Al Khaimah Championship. All present as bomber paradises, which is certainly not Cockerill’s game. It is always worthy of attention when a golfer performs on golf courses away from his baseline skills. It suggests a great opportunity when playing on a golf course that should suit.

That is exactly what Cockerill finds this week. The last 3 months he is 20th for accuracy in this field but just 55th for distance. He also ranks 9th for SG: APP, 5th for SG: ATG, and 13th for SG: Putting. Basically, were it not for a lack of driving distance he probably would’ve already notched a win this season.

Of course, that is not an issue at Muthaiga and his driving accuracy and approach prowess can fully shine. The 2nd on debut in 2022 here hopefully preludes a win this week.

Adrian Otaegui

Moving down the board, we find Adrian Otaegui languishing as long as 50/1. Much of that has to do with a fall off in performance of late. I hold less concerns than most, given so many of those courses are simply unsuitable for his game. He is an extremely short hitter, sitting 111/156 in this field for driving distance but 3rd for accuracy over the last year. This is a much better fit.

That is demonstrated by a 20th at the Dubai Invitational coming on a track that demanded accuracy. Form of 34-30 is decent enough for the Spaniard. His win in 2022 at Valderrama alongside an 11th and 17th there is another key indicator of his suitability. Additionally, his form at the Open de France is superb with results of 7-12-MC-13-16 in his last 5 starts at Le Golf National.

I’m happy to include him in my Magical Kenya Open golf betting tips off the back of his course suitability and happily accept his long odds. He would be much closer to 25/1 had he shown anything closer to his average performance of late.

Nacho Elvira

We continue with another Spaniard with the bang in-form Nacho Elvira. He arrives having gained significantly on approach in his last three starts. That is the first time he has gained on approach for three straight tournaments since 2021.

A 40th in his first look here was far from disgraceful at what can be a tricky course on first look. He holds great credentials from Crans-sur-Sierre with a 4th, 9th, and 13th there when nowhere near the form we find him now. That suits that both the high altitude and fiddly ball-striking required could match perfectly this week.

I also appreciate with Elvira that his short-game should come to the form is the winds remain as strong as forecast. His ability to scramble and make putts could prove invaluable down the stretch with the inevitable missed greens this week.

Masahiro Kawamura – Magical Kenya Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value

Much like Cockerill, I had this event lined up for Kawamura for some time. The 7th placed finish at the long Emirates Golf Club was impressive, losing strokes off the tee simply from his driving distance. A 16th when last sighted in a windy Qatar Masters was also noteworthy.

It could be as simple as pointing these two performances out alongside a runner-up finish here in 2023 to make our case. But further strength can be found in his comp course performances. Valderrama he has gone 39-8-37-21 and at Crans-sur-Sierre 21-9-8 in his last three starts there.

Over the last 12 months, Kawamura is 20th for accuracy and 10th for SG: APP in this field. He looks a fabulous bet at anything 55/1 and longer.

Matthias Schwab

Finally, I made some space on my Magical Kenya Open betting card for Matthias Schwab. Touted as one of the next big products of the DP World Tour, he has really struggled the last two years on the PGA Tour. This standard of field should be much more to his liking.

His best PGA Tour performances have almost always come on courses that favour accuracy. 11th at Silverado, 9th at TPC Louisiana, 21st at Mayakoba, 16th at TPC Deere Run, and 7th at the Honda Classic come to mind.

We need to deep-dive a bit further into Schwab’s history as a result. In 2019 he finished 8th around Crans-sur-Sierre and in 2021 had a 15th place finish at Valderrama. A 12th in the DP World Tour flagship BMW PGA Championship came in elite company just before departing for the PGA. Wentworth is far from the worst comp course, with Aaron Rai having finished runner-up there and a winner on this course on the Challenge Tour in 2017.

It was on the Challenge Tour I found the most interesting nugget for Schwab. He played on this course in 2018 and finished 8th in his only look. That came despite a dreadful opening round of 76 (+5). In fact, nobody was better from Friday-Sunday. On the face of it this profiles as a golfer playing his first tournament on African grasses on a tricky course to figure out, before learning quickly and finding it extremely suitable to his game.

The last time we found a near identical profile was betting Daniel Hillier at the British Masters. He played at The Belfry on the Challenge Tour opening with a 73 (+1) before shooting the best combined score for the remaining three rounds. And we all know what happened with that bet…

🎉BOOM! Another WINNER🎉
🇳🇿And a Kiwi to boot! 🇳🇿

Selected at 80/1, Daniel Hillier secures the win for @WinDailySports with a stunning finish including an Eagle-Birdie-Eagle run from 15.

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PGA Sports Betting Golf

Mexico Open Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Vidanta Vallarta is the host course for our Mexico Open preview

What a finish to the Genesis Invitational! You have to feel for all the Patrick Cantlay backers, who would’ve been ready to cash their tickets on Friday evening with the substantial lead he had established. Along with those on Cantlay, it was a bit of a frustrating week for our selections. Both Burns and Scott endured slow starts before finding their rhythm and finishing 10th and 15th respectively. Very poor final rounds from our long-shot selections Hossler (80/1) and Kitayama (100/1) saw them move from inside the Top 20 to miss out on the Top 20 bets. Fortunately, our final round match-up bets came through in a big way. We went 4/5 to restore some profit on the week. We only post match-ups rarely, when we see a definitive edge develop in our data. There may be more from our Mexico Open preview, with some particular quirks to this course.

Did you miss the below? Again?!#GenesisInvitational
R4 Match-ups
❌Harman over Aberg +138
✅Burns over Power -164
✅C Bez over Todd -125
✅Henley over Kitayama +105
✅English over Day +100
❌All 5 +2662
✅4-folds
✅Boxed Trebles
✅Boxed Doubles
20u in, 42.055u out

Why not… https://t.co/l7SdXs207H
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) February 19, 2024

It was quite some final round for Hideki Matsuyama, whose Masters price has subsequently crashed in from 50s into 28s. We actually just posted our first Masters future of 2024 in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord. It is well worth considering the promo highlighted above. We are basically giving away our product at 2 months for the price of 1, meaning it is just $49.99 for ALL sports Premium access. Simply use PROMO code “MASTERS” at check-out when you join at this link.

Mexico Open Preview Vidanta Vallarta Course Analysis

As mentioned for our Mexico Open preview, this quirky course has some fairly key indicators for what is required to play well. That leads to many opportunities in betting markets and, also, in the round match-ups.

This is a resort style golf course that was never designed to be played by PGA Tour golfers. The setup is relatively easy and you are going to need to shoot low to be victorious this week. Playing at 7,456 yards for a par 71, it is one of the longer tracks on the PGA Tour. Bear in mind, the course is also at sea level. It will play every inch of that distance with no benefit from altitude. Par 4 and par 5 length are the longest on the PGA Tour at a whopping 495 yards on average.

In 2022, of the top 14 players 11 ranked in the top 24 for driving distance. Additionally, 9 of the top 14 players were in top 20 and 4 of the top 7 ranked in the top 10 for driving distance. It should come as no surprise for our Mexico Open preview that driving distance is ranked highly.

This also has an impact on approach shots. You will see a disproportionate number of shots with long irons this week. 35% of all iron shots will occur from over 200+ yards. Additionally, the 175-200 yard range sees another big uptick in correlation.

Finally, no Mexico Open preview would be completely without speaking about grass type. This is paspalum grass tee-to-green. This sticky grass is used rarely in the PGA Tour. It is found in seaside golf courses, as it is resistant to salt air and water. It tends to play very slow. We have seen a number of paspalum grass specialists develop over the years.

Vidanta Vallarta Course Comps

On the face of it, course history has not been very correlated to predicting success here. Bear in mind though, the Mexico Open has only hosted two events here so it has only been a brief preview into this course. Additionally, as it is regarded as a lesser field event there is quite a large transition in the field each rendition. We may see more correlation develop in time.

One of the best golf courses to use as a guide for your Mexico Open preview is Corales Golf Club. The course sits at a 7,670 yards par 72. Host of the Corales Puntacana Championship, it is another long golf course featuring paspalum. The new host of the World Wide Technology Championship, El Cardonal, is another long 7,452 yard par 72 in Mexico with paspalum greens.

Another worthy of preview in a Mexico Open analysis is Grand Reserve Country Club. Host of the Puerto Rico Open, it is a 7,506 yards par 72 again featuring paspalum. Tony Finau is a winner at both events. Akshay Bhatia also links these nicely.

The benefit of both of these courses is they not only take in similar agronomy, but also tick the box of exposed tropical golf courses. They are also more likely to feature common players, being alternate field events, to the more flagship PGA Tour stops.

Finally, some cases can be made for Korn Ferry Tour and DP World Tour events. The Korn Ferry Tour has two events in the Bahamas, in Panama, and the Astara Championship was in Colombia last week. All bear consideration. For the DP World Tour, Al Hamra should provide a nice course comp. It is a long track dominated by bombers with above average size greens, and features paspalum greens

Weather

The only other potential defense to this course, other than length, is the wind. Just as we saw last year, there is very little in the forecast. It is worth bearing in mind for DFS Showdown purposes that the AM is likely to provide the most advantage.

Given the exposed nature of this coastal track, wind gusts in the mid-teens are sufficient to put a slight dampener on rampant scoring. Overall, the on-shore breeze looks to consistently arrive around midday. However, as this consistent daily there is unlikely to be any tangible weather edge for week long selections.

If you play DFS showdown, my recommendation would be to look to the morning in nearly all instances.

Mexico Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Mexico Open, you can preview these in this article here in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

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1 year ago 0 comments

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Mexico Open Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Vidanta Vallarta hosts the Mexico Open betting tips

Before getting into our betting tips for the Mexico Open, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive course analysis of Vidanta Vallarta, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind the Mexico Open golf betting tips below.

You can find my latest profit and loss tracker here.

As always, the honourable mentions who just missed out on our betting card at the Mexico Open. I heavily considered giving J.J. Spaun a third crack at 100/1, after two missed cuts when tipped at the Genesis Invitational and WM Phoenix Open. His approach play has really been excellent of late. He does his best work for with the long irons. Although he should benefit from these slower paspalum surfaces, his putting has been woeful of late.

Nate Lashley and Brandon Wu are both respected given their outstanding form on paspalum comp courses. Those correlations have been well noted this time by bookmakers and they are far too short to be backed. Keith Mitchell has looked better recently, his combination of long and accurate driving complimented by superb long irons and a 2nd on debut at Corales Puntacana. He was tough to leave out, but a price closer to 35/1 had been expected.

Mexico Open Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking
Posted in WinDaily Discord Mon 19 Feb at 8am ET

Nicolai Hojgaard
2.5u E/W +1800 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Thomas Detry – Mexico Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite
2.5u E/W +2800 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Davis Thompson
2u E/W +4500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Victor Perez
1u E/W +10000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +425 (Bet365)

Vince Whaley
0.5u E/W +10000 (Bet365/William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +450 (Bet365)
And
2u Top 40 +160 (Bet365)

Kevin Chappell
0.5u +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +650 (Bet365)
And
2u Top 40 +225 (Bet365)

Martin Trainer – Mexico Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value
0.5u +25000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +700 (Bet365)
And
2u Top 40 +230 (Bet365)

Mexico Open Betting Player Profiles

Nicolai Hojgaard

Despite being the very obvious class in this field, Tony Finau is an easy fade for me given how dreadful his putter has looked. He should benefit from these easier to read and slower greens, but a price nearer to 12/1 would’ve been a fairer reflection of his current form. Consequently, the price on Hojgaard at 18/1 looks generous in this decidedly weak field.

It is quite clear this is the type of test that should suit Nicolai’s eye. 33rd on debut last year came despite losing strokes both putting and ATG but gaining ball-striking. He was a winner on debut at the highly correlated Al Hamra in 2022, backing that up with a 13th in 2023 there. Further DP World Tour links can be found in the 3rd at the Czech Masters and 5th at the Italian Open, both on bomber paradises.

He also went very close to winning for us when tipped at the Corales Puntacana Championship in 2023, finishing just one stroke behind Matt Wallace at another highly correlated course. Wallace actually provides a nice link, having taken the runner-up spot for us at Jumeirah Golf Estates for the DP World Tour Championship, where we managed a 1-2 with Hojgaard taking the win.

🔥ANOTHER ONE!🔥
BEST way to end another great tipping season on the @DPWorldTour is with a 1-2 finish at #DPWorldTourChampionship!

🥇1st = Nicolai Hojgaard 25/1
🥈2nd = Matt Wallace 60/1
Full place at 15/1 & Top 20 +110
💵8th = Victor Perez 90/1
Top 20 +150#DPWTC #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/2vJhDFo4Lx
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) November 19, 2023

Obviously, Hojgaard has continued to elevate his game since. The recent 7th in a strong Dubai Desert Classic field is another track for the strong drivers. Another recent runner-up at the long and tough Torrey Pines just further indicates he has more than ample talent to be a PGA Tour winner soon. Given his excellent performance on paspalum greens and a weak field, this week presents a prime opportunity.

Thomas Detry – Mexico Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite

I’ll openly admit that even I winced when putting this selection up. Detry once again found a way to lose a golf tournament, throwing away a potential victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Fortunately for us, that handed our 125/1 selection Matthieu Pavon victory.

He did the same in the aforementioned 2023 Corales Puntacana Championship. Detry shot an even par final round, losing 1.43 strokes to the field, when looking a likely contender and finishing 8th.

Here in lies the problem. His form at that highly correlated course now reads 33-33-13-15-8. Additionally, he finished 9th on debut at Al Hamra and a 38th at El Cardonal came when in indifferent form. Instead, he arrives here after being bang in contention at Pebble Beach, a 20th at the Farmers Insurance Open, and 28th when last seen in Phoenix.

Yes, I have severe concerns about his ability to close out a victory. The fact remains he undoubtedly has the ability to win on either the PGA or DP World Tour. The big question comes to the 6 inches between the ears.

Unfortunately, I simply can’t avoid the strength of course correlations and recent form. In many ways, I hope he either opens up such a substantial lead that he can’t throw it away or, and perhaps better, he finds himself 4 strokes off the lead come Sunday and shoots a low final round. He may need to fall into victory to finally get the monkey off his back.

Davis Thompson

A little longer in our Mexico Open betting tips, the sophomore Davis Thompson can be found as long as 45/1. This talented youngster burst onto the scene finishing 9th in his first event of his rookie PGA Tour season, followed by a 12th two starts later, and a runner-up in January. The middle portion of the year proved a little more difficult as he found his feet, before re-establishing his credentials in the fall.

Included in that was a 15th at El Cardonal, where he managed a 66 and 67 without putting up an extremely low round which would’ve been required for victory that week. Given he is only in the start of his sophomore year, a lack of data is the many reason you won’t find further correlated course form. Diving into the Korn Ferry Tour, you can look to the Bahamas Great Abaco Classic for paspalum form. He was the first round leader that week, fading a little over the weekend but still finishing an admirable 12th.

Thompson has again had an excellent start to the year. 21st at the low scoring American Express was followed by a 15th in a strong WM Phoenix Open field. The approach game is in excellent touch, and this should suit better than other courses with his long irons the key. Davis Thompson is 4th in this field over the last 12 months for SG: App from over 200+ yards. he looks a fabulous bet at anything 40/1 or longer.

Victor Perez

Will we screaming “Allez Les Bleus” once again come Sunday, as another 100/1+ golfer charges to victory? I certainly hope so, and I believe Perez has the skills and experience to be the name who does so.

Incredible!!! What a win! 🇫🇷

🔥Pavon a 125/1 winner for us 🔥
LET'S GOOOOOOO!
MASSIVE.#FarmersInsuranceOpen #FIO #Pavon #matthieupavon pic.twitter.com/bKtActPEoz
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) January 28, 2024

Undoubtedly, the performance of Pavon to break the duck of French PGA Tour winners has seen inspired French performances across the Atlantic. Do note Martin Trainer did secure a win on the PGA Tour, but that was when flying under the USA flag. More on him shortly.

Perez profile is an interesting one to delve into. In his two starts for 2024, he has essentially being doing the opposite of his baseline. That is, he is currently putting poorly (losing -2.85 and -1.60 strokes putting). However, he has now gained strokes on approach in his last 6 tournaments and SG: OTT in 5/6. It is a similar statistical profile he produced prior to his 2022 Dutch Open win.

Victor Perez achieved his biggest victory to date in a Rolex Series event, winning the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. That is played on paspalum greens, as is the Ras Al Khaimah Championship where he finished 13th in his one appearance at Al Hamra. He was also 8th when tipped by us at the DP World Tour Championship, where Hojgaard and Wallace finished 1-2. Other correlated courses can be found in the Italian Open (9th and 3rd) and Czech Masters (23rd and 11th).

Perez can sink some monster clutch putts when contention. A few of those this week and his current ball-striking numbers suggest he will look fantastic value at 100/1.

Vince Whaley

Before heading into our extreme long-shot betting picks at the Mexico Open, I have some time for Vince Whaley this week.

An impressive end to 2023 was marked by finishing 28th or better in 6/7 tournaments to close out the season. On the face of it, it has appeared to be a sluggish start to 2024. However, the good ball-striking has remained and he has been woeful with the putter. A return to his favoured paspalum is beneficial in that regard. Approach from 200+ yards is also quite easily his best approach distance.

Whaley has quietly excellent form on the comp courses. There is the 9th and 15th at the Puerto Rico Open. There is also a treble of 28th place finishes at Corales Puntacana. Diving further into history, a 2nd in the Bahamas on the Korn Ferry Tour with just his second professional tournament start in 2019 also catches the eye.

Kevin Chappell

If there was ever a tournament to speculate on long-shots, it may well be at an event like this one. To kick off, a return to Kevin Chappell who we have previously tipped at the Corales Puntacana Championship.

Chappell has finished 15th and 16th in his last two starts at the Corales Puntacana Championship in 2022 and 2023. He also boasts a finish of 15th at the 2023 Puerto Rico Open and was 24th in this event last year as well. That was pleasing being his only appearance at this course. If you really want to deep-dive, you can go all the was back to 2009 where he finished 11th in the Mexico Open and 4th in 2010 at the Panama Championship four months later.

Most recently, he finished 49th at the WM Phoenix Open but it is the start prior which is more intriguing. A 21st at the Panama Championship there was a break from some consistently poor play in 2023 outside the three paspalum events.

As such, a speculative play at odds as long as 225/1 seems a more than fair price.

Martin Trainer – Mexico Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value

I did promise we would return to speak about Martin Trainer, as he rounds out our Mexico Open Betting Tips available as long as 300/1.

As mentioned, Martin Trainer won in his rookie PGA Tour season at the correlated Puerto Rico Open in 2019. He also won in Mexico on the Korn Ferry Tour, notching up a win in 2018. Perhaps the paspalum correlation has much to do with spending his 2014-2016 years on the PGA Tour Latinoamerica.

More recently on the PGA Tour, he has achieved a 7th and 2nd at the Corales Puntacana Championship in 2022 and 2023 respectively. A 15th at El Cardonal in the Worldwide technology Championship a few months ago in November 2023 should have come as no surprise. Neither should the 11th he achieved at this event in 2022.

Much like Chappell, the recent form is perhaps the most pleasing in that he finished 8th last week at the Astara Golf Championship in Bogota Colombia. He looks far too long in current markets as a true paspalum specialist, and is a great shout for a Top 40 and maybe a sneaky Top 20 or better.

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1 year ago 0 comments

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Genesis Invitational: Round 2 Best Bets

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Riviera Country Club for Round 2 3-Ball bets at the Genesis Invitational

It’s rare that we deep-dive into any match-up bets before the weekend. We don’t often delve into the round by round bets early in tournaments as there is benefit (and an edge) to be had in extracting some extra data for the week. So, when we do, it pays to pay attention. At the Genesis Invitational, David Bieleski (@DeepDiveGolf) has found some 3 balls with promising returns.

As always, make sure you have delved into all our deep-dive into this course. We cover the key metrics for Riviera Country Club to find success at Riviera Country Club. You can find my pre-tournament statistical analysis of the Genesis Invitational here.

You can also catch the most recent PGA Draftcast episode below. Catch us live on YouTube every Tuesday at 9PM ET.

The #BMWChampionship is at the halfway mark in the #FedExCup playoffs and it was another clean sweep!

A nice double to start the week:
✅2pt Kitayama over McCarthy +137
✅2pt An over Hadwin -115
✅1pt Double +344

Don't miss out on R3 and R4 plays!
JOIN: https://t.co/MSJ5vLRUu9 pic.twitter.com/h8zPeVj2u1
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) August 19, 2023

Best Bets: Round 2 3-Balls

J.J Spaun over Luke List and Kevin Yu
3u +225 Unibet (+220 MGM)
Justin Thomas over Tiger Woods and Gary Woodland
5u -115 Bet365 (-118 MGM)
Adam Scott over Alex Smalley and Taylor Montgomery
5u +100 William Hill (+100 MGM/FanDuel)

Treble Spaun/JT/Scott to win their 3-ball
1u +1068 Bet365
Boxed Doubles Spaun/JT/Scott to win their 3-ball
6u (3 x 2u Doubles) Bet365

Genesis Invitational: J.J. Spaun over List/Yu

Let’s be real: Luke List (+120) is a dreadful putter. He just gained +4.59 SG: Putt in round 1 to lead the field putting. He has only gained putting at this course in 1/8 tournaments at the Genesis Invitational. We can expect some regression.

As to the other in the 3-ball, Kevin Yu (+200) shot +4 today without a single birdie. He lost across the board in all SG metrics.

Meanwhile, J.J. Spaun ranked 68/70 losing -3.31 SG: Putt in round 1, is statistically a better putter than List, and has gained putting here in 3/6 tournaments at Riviera. He was also 7th for SG: APP.

Very happy to take the underdog in this 3-ball at long odds.

Genesis Invitational: Justin Thomas over Woods/Woodland

JT really shot himself over the first 9 holes, losing -2.13 strokes putting and -1.27 approach on the front 9 alone. Perhaps he was simply Tiger-struck? He found his game over the 2nd half of the round, gaining +1.52 SG: APP and +1.19 SG: Putt. Thomas also lost -0.94 SG: ATG on the round.

He has gained 4+ strokes putting at the Genesis Invitational in 4/6 most recent events at Riviera. That includes when in the dreadful first 6 months to 2023. The Genesis Invitational was the only event he gained strokes putting. He has gained in SG: ATG at every tournament he has played here.

Woodland stats are massively buoyed by an eagle at the 11th hole. He has only gained putting in 1/6 at the Genesis Invitational and only finished better than 26th once. He has had his own medical issues to deal with and Woods obviously still suffering from both rust and injury, claiming the shank at the last was due not to the leg but a back-spasm. I’ll certianly be claiming back-spasms next time I shank the ball. Of course, he might produce some Woods magic but I like the number available on JT to continue the good form he showed on his 2nd 9.

Genesis Invitational: Adam Scott over Smalley/Montgomery

This bet is not so much about what Adam Scott did, but more about what the others didn’t do in round 1 at the Genesis Invitational.

Montgomery was 61st for SG: APP and 63rd for SG: OTT. Basically, his ranking of 65/70 in SG: T2G really tells the story of how poor his ball-striking was. He has only played the Genesis Invitational once last year, missing the cut.

Likewise, Alex Smalley was very poor in round 1. Having just lost -8.20 SG: APP at the WM Phoenix Open, he lost another -3.91 SG: APP on Thursday here. His Genesis Invitational record reads 72-MC.

Therefore, neither of these pose much threat to Adam Scott. Although he didn’t play brilliantly, he was still better statistically than his two competitors. Scott is a two time winner at the Genesis Invitational and has been in brilliant form in 2024. Look for a return to business in the 2nd round.

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Best Bets: Round 2 3-Balls

Genesis Invitational: J.J. Spaun over List/Yu

Genesis Invitational: Justin Thomas over Woods/Woodland

Genesis Invitational: Adam Scott over Smalley/Montgomery

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