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The Players Round 4 2 Balls: DeepDiveGolf’s Preview & Best Bets

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
DeepDiveGolf gives his Round 4 Best Bets at The Players Championship

Before getting into The Players Championship Round 4 Best Bets, I recommend going back to read my tournament preview article here. This provides context behind The Players Championship Round 4 betting tips and 2 Balls below. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of TPC Sawgrass and important course comps for the tournament.

It was a mixed bag for our golfers in the 3rd round, as the volatile TPC Sawgrass always tends to produce. Tom Hoge (80/1) was playing brilliantly and sitting in the Top 10, before the dreaded 18th swallowed two of his golf balls in the water. The subsequent quadruple bogey dropped him all the way to 35th and an outside chance on our Top 20 bet at +300.

Likewise, Nick Taylor (175/1) has been sitting 2nd for the first two days of play. He completely lost his swing over the first 10 holes, including a 135 yard shank driving on the 10th hole finding water. He was mildly better over the final 8 holes, sitting 22nd. Still, he is a chance for a Top 20 at +450 and a Top 40 at +200.

In better news, Brian Harman (80/1) is right in contention. He completed the lowest 2nd and 3rd round total at The Players Championship, following up his 65 with a 64 on Saturday. Harman sits in 3rd just two shots off the lead.

Our favourite of the week, Hideki Matsuyama (35/1), sits in 9th. He leads the field in ball-striking this week and remains towards the top of the leaderboard despite sitting 65th for SG: PUTT. Although he is likely too far back to chase a win at 7 shots off the lead, he is a chance for a place payout at +700.

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The Players Championship Round 4 Best Bets

Putnam over Molinari -130

Andrew Putnam ranks 23rd in this field for SG: PUTT over the past 12 months, yet is 68/73 putting of those who made the cut. That included losing -2.01 SG: PUTT in the 3rd round, with missed birdie chances at the 1st, 9th, and 12th holes as well as a bogey on 6th after missing a 7 footer.

Meanwhile, Molinari is exceeding his typical putting baseline, sitting 25th for putting this week whilst only ranking 126th in this field for SG: PUTT over the past 12 months. Molinari also ranks as one of the worst in the filed for SG: APP over the last 12 months under 150 yards. This represents the highest number of approach shots at TPC Sawgrass.

This is the one of the strengths of Putnam’s game. His approach numbers are a little hidden, given he found the water on 18 Saturday costing him -1.42 SG: APP on that hole alone. Combined with expected regression in putting metrics, it sees Putnam as value at this number.

Hubbard over English +130

Much as we stated in our Round 2 Best Bets article, Hubbard continues to display excellent ball-striking this week. He is 3rd for driving accuracy and 7th for SG: APP, sitting 4th for SG: BS.

The problem really has been the putter. There has actually been much improvement in this aspect of his game of late, ranking 24th in this field putting over the past 3 months. Additionally, he has tended to putt well at TPC Sawgrass. He has been at or above field average in all appearances at The Players Championship bar on debut.

Of some concern is that English lost -3.01 SG: Putt in the 3rd round, well below his baseline. However, the far better ball-striking numbers from Hubbard suggest he should be much closer to even money than an outsider in this matchup.

Lowry over McCarthy -110

Lowry has been in fabulous form of late, finishing 3rd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 4th at the Cognizant Classic the week prior. He also holds a strong record at The Players Championship where has finished 8th, 13th, and 16th before. Correlated courses of Sedgefield and Wentworth also see Lowry hold good finishes.

Outside a 13th placed finish in 2023, McCarthy has finished no better than 41st at The Players Championship in his other three starts here. Currently, he is really struggling with driver and on approach. It has been more of the same this week, finding only 23 fairways over the first 3 rounds and 48th on approach despite not finding the water.

Lowry let birdie putts go on holes 1, 9, 12, 14, 16, and 17 on Saturday. Additionally, he missed a 3ft 4in par putt on the 5th hole. That is well below average even for Lowry’s standards, on a golf course he has been a net gainer when putting.

Rai over Knapp -115

Aaron Rai finally found his approach in the 3rd round, gaining +3.55 SG: APP on Saturday. Although holing out for eagle on the 14th certainly helped, he was still +1.51 on approach for the other 17 holes.

Rai also ranks 1st in the field for driving accuracy this week, the most predictive factor for success at TPC Sawgrass. He has missed only 7 fairways all week. On the other hand, Knapp typically struggles with driving accuracy. The same can be said this week. He is sitting just 50th for driving accuracy, including finding only 6 fairways on Saturday.

Sitting 63/73 for SG: BS and 71/73 for SG: OTT doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence for Knapp. Certainly, a final round appearance for the rookie is an achievement in itself. However, it is a challenge he may find difficult on debut.

Matsuyama over Montgomery -143
The Players Round 4 Favourite Bet

As in the introduction, Matsuyama is really in an excellent vein of form with the ball-striking. He leads the field in that metric this week. The putter continues to be a struggle for Matsuyama this week. However, that is the most volatile club in the bag and one that we so often see regress towards a golfer’s baseline over a much shorter timespan.

Montgomery is one of the most inaccurate drivers in this field, ranking 139th in this field over the past 12 months. Although a superb putter in general, there is only so long around TPC Sawgrass that you can avoid the dangers of water at nearly every turn. The odds at Bet365 are also generous. Matsuyama is a -220 or shorter favourite at most other books.

Harman over McNealy -125

As fun as McNealy 3rd round was to watch, that fairytale can only last so long. Chip-ins on holes 3, 14 and 15 (after putting off the green) are unlikely to occur again.

McNealy ranks just 60th in the tournament for SG: APP. He has carried heavily by his fortunate wedge play and putter to find himself in contention. Really, it is quite an unsustainable way to build a scorecard.

Meanwhile, Harman has looked truly excellent thus far. He is 3rd for SG: APP, 5th for SG : BS, and 4th for SG: PUTT. When you account for the fact he actually lost on approach in his opening round, he has gained +6.35 SG: APP for Friday and Saturday. Those numbers should carry him over McNealy. It may even see him lift the trophy on Sunday.

Lashley over Scheffler +400 Singles Only

Rounding out our selections are a couple of speculative outsiders. Therefore, these are included as singles only.

Taking on Scheffler in most circumstances seems absurd. Undisputedly, he should be the favourite in this 2 Ball. The issue comes more with the number.

The fact is, the general public are going to jump on Scheffler no matter what the odds are in this matchup. Obviously, the books need to cover this. Hence, he is a -450 favourite when he should be closer to -200. Add in the additional wrinkle of the Scheffler neck injury, it seems worth taking a contrarian stance here.

For the record, my numbers produced a similar story for C.T. Pan at +250 over McIlroy over at Fanduel. I wasn’t quite brave enough to pull that trigger on that one. However, I’ll note that the model did like that play for Round 4 of The Players Championship.

Schenk over Burns +180 Singles Only

Again, I won’t deny the fact that Burns should be the favourite in this 2 Ball. However, the number has slipped a little too far in his favour when he should be more fairly priced at -100.

Schenk has been the much better ball-striker of these two over the first three rounds. He ranks 11th for SG: BS and 7th for SG: T2G. This includes ranking 7th for driving accuracy, 12th for SG: OTT, 21st for SG: APP, and 16th for SG: ATG. He has missed just 10 fairways thus far. Meanwhile, Burns is 61/73 for driving accuracy having found just 23 fairways so far this week.

The issue for Schenk has once again been the putter. However, entering Round 4 at The Players we can take some solace from the fact Schenk has typically putted well here. He has gained putting in 3/4 appearances at TPC Sawgrass. In the other tournament, he only lost -0.5 SG: Putt.

Expecting some positive regression in his putting numbers, I am willing to take the underdog in this matchup.

The Players Championship Round 4 2 Balls
Suggested Staking

Singles
1.5u Putnam over Molinari -130 (Bet365)
1u Hubbard over English +130 (William Hill/Unibet)
1u Lowry over McCarthy -110 (Bet365)
1.5u Rai over Knapp -115 (Bet365)
2u Matsuyama over Montgomery -143 (Bet365)
2u Harman over McNealy -125 (Unibet)
0.5u Lashley over Scheffler +400 (Unibet) Singles Only
0.5u Schenk over Burns +180 (William Hill) Singles Only

Parlays/Mutis
Putnam/Hubbard/Lowry/Rai/Matsuyama/Harman to win their 2 Ball

0.4u All 6 +4126 Bet365
0.6u Boxed 5 Folds (6 x 0.1u each)
1.5u Boxed 4 Folds (15 x 0.1u each)
5u Boxed Trebles (20 x 0.25u each)
7.5u Boxed Doubles (15 x 0.5u each)

25u Total Invested

Before Round 4, rewatch The Players PGA Draftcast

Once again, thank you for your support of DeepDiveGolf and for reading The Players Championship Round 4 betting tips.

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The Players Championship: DeepDiveGolf’s Round 2 Preview & Best Bets

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
DeepDiveGolf gives his Round 2 Best Bets at The Players Championship

Before getting into The Players Championship Round 2 Best Bets, I recommend going back to read my tournament preview article here. This provides context behind The Players Championship Round 2 betting tips and 3-balls below. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of TPC Sawgrass and important course comps for the tournament.

What a first round it was for our selections! An unfortunate withdrawal by Tom Kim (citing illness) aside, we couldn’t have asked for a much better start.

5/7 of the “healthy” players are 22nd or better. Most impressively, Nick Taylor continues to impress and is right in contention once again this week. We secured him earlier this week over at WinDaily Sports at HUGE odds of 175/1.

Ryan Fox (200/1) was an obvious eye-catcher. He became the first golfer to eagle 16 and make a hole-in-one at the 17th at The Players Championship. Kiwi magic right there!

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The Players Championship Round 2 Best Bets

Mark Hubbard over Dylan Wu & Keith Mitchell +190

I included Oakdale Golf & Country Club as part of my analysis this week. I suspected that correlations of a driving accuracy wedge-fest would suit well to The Players Championship. It was part of the reason for including Nick Taylor as I spoke about in our article.

Look at the rest of the 2023 RBC Canadian Open leaderboard compared to Round 1 at The Players Championship though. Beyond the obvious names of Fleetwood, Hatton, and McIlroy there were a few other golfers, but they performed above their expectation. Namely CT Pan, Eric Cole, and Mark Hubbard. They sit 22nd, 37th, and 13th respectively after Round 1.

Hubbard gained +3.48 SG: APP in Round 1 to sit third in that metric, as well as 2nd for driving accuracy and 9th ATG to lead the field in SG: T2G. Basically, he still managed to win this 3-ball on Thursday despite ranking 138/144 for putting.

However, Hubbard has actually been putting very well of late. He ranks 24th in this field for SG: PUTT over the past 3 months. Mitchell ranks 88th and Dylan Wu ranks 107th in that same metric. Previously, he has putted well here as well being at or above field average in all appearances at The Players Championship except his first.

This seems a prime spot for some positive putting regression and like the number on the middle odds in this group.

Byeong-Hun An over Matti Schmid & Patrick Rodgers +115

I’m not sure I need to speak about the credentials of Benny An here too much, as he made our betting card and Premium subscribers will already be well aware. In short he has a 2022 Korn Ferry Tour win came on a comparable course at the LECOM Suncoast Classic, a record at the highly comparable Sedgefield Country Club reading 18-MC-3-35-2, and he is a winner at another comp course at Wentworth where he has never finished worse than 33rd.

Driving accuracy is the real key at The Players Championship and Benny An ranked 2nd in Round 1 as well as 27th for SG: APP. Of his two competitors, Matti Schmid actually holds the more concern for me. He was a promising talent on the DP World Tour before struggling with the jump in class in his rookie PGA Tour season. He was 22nd in his first look at Sedgefield and finished 10th last week in Puerto Rico. However, I do wonder if he gets the speed wobbles here. Two eagles is unlikely to happen again and neither is sitting 9th for SG: PUTT, all whilst waking up finding himself in 13th at The Players.

As for Rodgers, he has an abysmal record at this track with 5 MC, a MDF, and a 65th. The same can be said at Sedgefield, he has never finished better than 24th in 8 attempts with half of those not seeing four rounds. More looks on the cards for him this week where he lost strokes across the board in Round 1, including hitting only 8/14 fairways.

Corey Conners over J.J. Spaun & Davis Riley+100

A relatively simple play here. Corey Conners is clearly the class of this 3-ball, which he demonstrated in this group on Thursday beating Spaun by 4 shots and Riley by 6.

Riley has been out of form for quite some time, having a best finish of 28th in the last 11 months. It is a real shame to see when he was such a promising rookie in 2022.

For J.J. Spaun, he was 130/144 players for SG: APP in Round 1 and actually 41st for putting when gaining 0.82 SG: PUTT. We should give the putting anomaly some perspective. Outside gaining putting at Pebble Beach, his sole cut made in his last 6 tournaments when finishing 54th, he has lost a combined -8.75 SG: PUTT in the other 10 rounds. That recipe isn’t going to inspire anyone and gives no confidence it can continue. Negative regression can be expected.

Despite the well-known putting struggles of Conners, he has actually been a net gainer when putting at The Players Championship. That includes when finishing 7th here in 2021 and gaining in 3/5 appearances. He also was 10th for driving accuracy and 4th for SG: T2G in Round 1, suggesting a more sustainable method to continue to win in this group.

Nate Lashley over Ben Kohles and Robby Shelton +162

Again, I’m not sure too much needs to be said about this one. Lashley opened with a 68 (-4) on Thursday, whilst the other two in this group both finished +8 leading to a massive gap of 12 shots between the competitors.

Robby Shelton has never made a cut here, at Sedgefield, or at Oakdale. He was dead last for putting in Round 1 and 139th for SG: T2G. Kohles has never played The Players Championship before and has a record at Sedgefield of 70-MC-54. Additionally, the aforementioned correlated Korn Kerry Tour tournament the LECOM Suncoast Classic is also poor. He missed 3 cuts there with his sole made cut a 67th place finish. He was the 2nd worst putter in Round 1 and 141st for SG: T2G.

Certainly, Lashley was just clearly a lot better including being 8th for SG: APP in Round 1. I don’t actually expect Lashley to keep up his current pace. However, I’m not sure that will be required in order to achieve the desired result here.

The Players Championship Round 2 3-Balls
Suggested Staking

Singles
1.5u Hubbard over Dylan Wu & Mitchell +190 Bet365
1.5u Byeong-Hun An over Schmid & Rodgers +115 Various
2u Conners over Spaun & Riley +100 FanDuel
1.5u Lashley over Kohles & Shelton +162 Bet365

Parlays/Mutis
0.5u All 4 +2552 Bet365
2u Boxed Trebles (4 x 0.5u each) Bet365
6u Boxed Doubles (6 x 1u each) Bet365

15u Total Invested

Rewatch The Players Championship PGA Draftcast

Once again, thank you for your support of DeepDiveGolf and for reading The Players Championship Round 2 betting tips.

Make sure you subscribe to the WinDaily Sports YouTube channel.

Join Sia Nejad (@sianejad), Spence Aguiar (@TeeOffSports), and Joel (@draftmasterflex) as we talk through the PGA Tour tournament each week whilst drafting a DFS team. There’s always great banter and plenty of sharp plays.
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The Players DFS Advice: DeepDiveGolf’s DFS Player Pool and Strategies

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Before getting into our DFS pool for The Players, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive course analysis of TPC Sawgrass, course comps, and weather for the tournament. This helps explain reason and my process behind The Players Champion...

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The Players Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Before getting into our betting tips for The Players, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of TPC Sawgrass, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part...

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The Players Preview 2024: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
The iconic TPC Sawgrass plays host as we preview The Players Championship 2024

The PGA Tour descends upon TPC Sawgrass, where this iconic course plays host once again to the “5th Major” as we preview The Players Championship 2024. Perhaps contentious is to argue whether this still represents the best field in golf. Yes, the field is undoubtedly weakened compared to previous iterations. The shame, for golf fans more than anything else, is that such a field with all the best players no longer exists due to the rather political current state of the game of professional men’s golf.

My stance is this is still the best we get. It is true both in terms of depth but also the size of the field. Surely, the best field in golf is the most difficult to beat. That remains true statistically, just. Arguments could be made for the US Open and The Open Championship. Until then, we wait for the powers that be to reunite the game (hopefully).

Another great week, especially on the DP World Tour. We had 2nd place Jordan Smith in our tips, as well as a great run from 190/1 selection Pavan in South Africa.

At the Puerto Rico Open, all 6 of our tips made the cut. 5/6 of our golf betting tips finishing 23rd or better. Victor Perez was our strongest as he finished 3rd, just one shot outside the playoff.

Alongside all The Players betting tips, we already have some juicy Masters futures for 2024 in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord. These are delivering great closing line value.
We’ve already hit Matthieu Pavon at a MASSIVE 125/1 to start 2024 with a bang!

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The Players Preview: TPC Sawgrass Course Analysis

Assisting our preview of The Players this week is a return to a regular venue. TPC Sawgrass has hosted this event since 1982, so he have a ton of data to deep-dive into.

Despite not being the longest course at 7,275 yards par 72, this track always proves a stern test. Winning scores in the low to mid teens have been common here. Much of that comes down to the abundant water hazards on the course, with water in-play on 17 of the 18 holes. Rough is a thick 3.5in ryegrass and is penal. Greens are small at just under 5,500 sq ft on average. And we see a return to poa annua surfaces, which we will experience on the majority of courses in Florida.

This eye-test is reflected in the data. The course ranks in the top 5 highest penalties for missed fairways and in the top 6 for number of penalties every year since 2015. Therefore, driving accuracy is a large predictor of success here. The course actually ranks inside the top 10 shortest for average driving distance as players seek to find the short stuff.

Approach is also tricky. TPC Sawgrass has ranked as the 2nd, 2nd, and 1st most difficult on the tour for approach under 150 yards over the last 3 years. We also see a disproportionate number of shots within those ranges compared to a typical PGA Tour venue.

Find the fairways, nail or wedges, avoid the water, and make your putts is the recipe for success at TPC Sawgrass.

The Players Preview: TPC Sawgrass Course Comps

Course history is not actually overly strong at TPC Sawgrass. The volatile nature of the golf course explains that fact. However, another benefit to our preview of The Players is it has one of the strongest correlations to another golf course that we will see all year.

Sedgefield Country Club, host of the Wyndham Championship, is extremely correlated to success at TPC Sawgrass. Si Woo Kim has not only won at both, but also has an additional 9th here to compliment a 2nd, 3rd, and 5th at Sedgefield. Webb Simpson loves the Wyndham Championship so much he named his daughter after the event. He is also a winner of The Players Championship. You can also add Henrik Stenson down as another to complete the winning double. It should be your key guide as you preview The Players field this week.

Other parallels can be found at the RBC Heritage host Harbour Town, another fiddly course designed by Pete Dye. It puts pressure on finding fairways and on short approach shots.

From the DP World Tour, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth makes some nice links. Viktor Hovland has finished 5th there in 2022 and 2023 while finishing 9th and 3rd at The Players the same year. Aaron Rai has finished 14th and 2nd at Wentworth and finished an admirable 19th in his only appearance at TPC Sawgrass. Shane Lowry has a win, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 6th, 11th, 13th, 15th, 17th and 18th around Wentworth. He also has an 8th, 13th and 16th at TPC Sawgrass. Christiaan Bezuidenhout also links the two courses nicely. He holds a 3rd and 5th at Wentworth, plus finished 13th at The Players and also has the sneaky hidden -7 1st round in 2020 before the tournament was suspended at the start of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Weather

TPC Sawgrass, with it’s premium on accuracy and exposed nature, has seen some significant weather edges develop in recent iterations.

Perhaps most notably was in 2022. The entire industry was on a singular weather wave due to significant winds in the forecast. We took a contrarian stance to the industry, spotting a high risk of thunderstorms meaning play was likely to be delayed. We got the weather spot on, and enjoyed huge leverage as a result with the biggest weather edge of the season.

Both Thursday and Friday represent a similar forecast in terms of wind. There are easier conditions in the morning leading to higher gusts in the afternoon. The only wrinkle in this is that heavy rain and thunderstorms are once again on the cards for the Friday afternoon. Saturday afternoon looks very windy, but the morning should be calm until about midday.

At this stage, the forecast still remains a little uncertain. If you were to hedge your bets, it may again pay to be a little contrarian. Target those going Thursday AM and Friday PM in the hope thunderstorms delay play. This would push those groups to a calmer Saturday morning. As always, check-in to the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord for the latest in the forecast.

The Players Championship Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips for The Players Championship, you can preview these in our golf betting tips article posted here shortly or live now in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

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Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of The Players Championship. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Before getting into our betting tips for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of Bay Hill Club & Lodge, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provi...

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Bay Hill Club is the golf course hosting this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview

Before delving into our Arnold Palmer Invitational preview, thank you for your understanding with missing the article last week. Sometimes life gets in the way, and a combination of some recent minor surgery and a house move meant the full golf coverage needed to go by the wayside. Thank you for all the kind words.

PGA National bared its teeth again, not just for the players but also for our selections. A little unlucky as Noren missed a place payout for us by one shot at +1200. However, we cashed his Top 20 at +240. Sam Ryder (150/1) was also in contention for a juicy +3000 place for most of the tournament. He slipped down the field Saturday to miss the Top 20 by one, with a bogey on the final hole. As a consolation, we cashed the Top 40 on him at +190.

We return to a happy hunting ground. Bay Hill has been kind to us for the last couple of years. The highlight was hitting Kurt Kitayama as the winner in 2023 alongside a full place on Hatton in 4th. But also, 2022 was an excellent event for our tips. Gary Woodland looked a likely winner at 80/1 before a double bogey-bogey finish saw him finish in 5th just 2 shots off the winning mark. We complimented that with Viktor Hovland and Lucas Herbert both finishing in the top 7 as well.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview Course Analysis

Bay Hill Club & Lodge possesses one of the highest correlations on the PGA Tour of prior course form to success. Only Augusta National, Riviera Country Club, and TPC Scottsdale have a higher connection. This penal, difficult test does have a few nuances that explain this and should guide our thinking entering our Arnold Palmer Invitational preview.

You will hear a lot about driving distance being key this week. This, however, does require a little more scrutiny than simply accepting that fact at face value. The true reasoning for this is not simply that a bomb and gouge approach will work here for our Arnold Palmer Invitational preview. Rather, the extremely juicy 3 in Ryegrass rough requires some strength to escape. Driving distance is a factor of club head speed, which is extremely helpful on long approach shots from rough.

That is reiterated by the disproportionate number of approach shots that will occur from over 200 yards. Notably, the par 3s play are the longest on the regular PGA Tour stops. Simply, the longer hitters will be holding more loft in their hands. Therefore, allowing for a higher apex for those long iron shots when approaching these firm and fast green complexes.

Fairways are reasonably wide with an average width of 33 yards at the 300-yard mark and 39 yards at the 325 mark. SG: PUTT is highly correlated to success here. Green complexes are very large at an average of 7,500 sq ft. The uptick in putting performance is predominantly because precisely where you are on the greens matters above simply GIR. Additionally, the lengthened approach shots into many holes can result in longer putts to be made.

Bay Hill Course Comps

As previously mentioned, course history should form a large part of any Arnold Palmer Invitational preview. Do take a look at round 4 from the 2022 tournament. That round suffered significant winds, which we expect to see here on Saturday.

There are a few additional courses that can guide your thinking. As mentioned, the US Open like setup should mean the majority of those host venues can provide guidance. Host of the 2022 PGA Championship Southern Hills holds similar metrics and was also a windy event. TPC Scottsdale also shows similarities to here. That occurs both demanding long approach play but the reasonably large fairways where there is a significant penalty if straying too far.

Weather

Before diving into our weather preview for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, we need to speak about the tournament format. This is the same situation as we saw recently at the Genesis Invitational. 69 players are competing this week. The top 50 players and ties will make the cut or any golfers within 10 strokes of the lead after 36 holes.

Although this means there is unlikely to be a weather wave edge, weather can still have a positive influence on your selections. Florida has an El Nino weather pattern, where winter is unusually cold and wet. There has been additional torrential rain recently, best highlighted by the necessity to delay to a Monday finish at last week’s Cognizant Classic. Wednesday should see more heavy rain the day before the tournament starts. Scoring should still be high, but perhaps all the rain will see conditions play a bit softer than we usually see at this event.

Additionally, heavy winds are forecast on Saturday. Sunday also has the chance for high winds depending when thunderstorms occur. Our selections were influenced by these factors when compiling our betting tips for the week.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, you can preview these in our golf betting tips article here or the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

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Magical Kenya Open Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

After a swing of tournaments in the Middle East, the DP World Tour ventures to their second preview of Africa for the Magical Kenya Open. This tournament is always a lot of fun and has produced some thrilling finishes. Much of that comes down to the golf course, as we preview the Magical Kenya Open host Muthaiga Golf Club.

Muthaiga Golf Club host our Magical Kenya Open Preview

The difference between Muthaiga and the PGA Tour Mexico Open venue this week, Vidanta Vallarta, are that they are as polar opposite to each other as they are geographically. This got me thinking about many of the DP World Tour players who have made their way to Mexico this week. Someone like Bjork could be much more suited to the course in Kenya than the one he will face this week.

Perhaps we will see a trend develop in time, with those who hold duel access selecting where they play more on the venue than which Tour is on first glance seemingly paying the most money. It is certainly interesting times we are living in for those of us in the golf industry.

Dial-in on H2H Match-ups this week

The specific nature of the course this week can produce wonderful opportunities for mismatches in rounds 3 and 4 matchups, where you can get two golfers with quite different player profiles who have achieved their score via different means. Keep an eye on the WinDaily Premium Discord for opportunities as we spot them!

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Magical Kenya Open Preview Muthaiga Course Analysis

Onto a preview of the golf course then, where the Magical Kenya Open returns once again to Muthaiga Golf Club.

It is very important to note to use course history this week. Despite hosting events in Kenya since 1967, the event has alternated between Muthaiga and Karen Country Club. 2022 and 2023 were both held at the current venue, as were 2017 and 2018 on the Challenge Tour. 2019 and 2021 were played at Karen CC, as were Challenge Tour events from 2013-2016. You get the idea. Although I wouldn’t totally discount form at Karen, this is quite a different test.

I’ll note the Seve factor as well. How often do you see a winning Spanish golfer commenting how “Seve Ballesteros won at this course” and that provided inspiration for them? The effect is real and provides such huge emotional motivation for Spanish players. Seve won this event back in 1978 at Muthaiga and we have seen other Spaniards play well here since. This includes last year’s winner, Jorge Campillo.

Although on paper the golf course looks long enough at 7,228 yards for a par 71, bear in mind that Nairobi is at an altitude of 6,000 feet. That sees the golf ball travel quite significantly further in the air. In fact, the distance increase is up to 20% in the modern age of golf ball technology.

Driving Accuracy the Key to Success

Where Muthaiga gets it’s defense is in the extremely narrow nature of the course. There is barely in runout from the fairway before you are in the towering trees.

Past champion Jeremy Robinson said: “Muthaiga is a narrow course – I think they’ve changed a few of the holes but I remember that being the overriding factor, it being narrow. You had to drive the ball straight because the rough was pretty thick and it wasn’t a long course, even in those days. Hit the ball straight, get used to the grain on the greens, the different grasses, and it’s more of a thinker’s course, unlike a lot of the courses today that favour longer hitters.”

Robinson went on to note how the unique grass types and nature of the course would prove difficult on debut; a sentiment I largely agree with.

It is no wonder then that we have seen some of the straightest hitters on tour find success here. Other links can be found in those who have played well at altitude previously. Perhaps the ability to best adjust to yardages plays a factor there. Greens are very small and scoring should not get out of control.

Muthaiga Golf Club Course Comps

Strangely enough, one of the better course comps for our Magical Kenya Open preview comes from the Swiss Alps. Crans-sur-Sierre is of course also played at altitude, but is a narrow course emphasising driving accuracy and small greens. Soderberg has found success on both courses, with Thriston Lawrence winning at Crans and runner-up at Muthaiga both on debut.

Valderrama is a very narrow, tree-lined test that has favoured the accurate drivers with sharp approach play. Players such as Kinhult link the two, finishing 8th at Muthaiga and 6th at Valderrama later that year. Catlin finished 15th on debut appearance at Muthaiga, a fine performance for a first start, and holds a record at Valderrama of W-11-11.

Le Golf National asks similar questions, but in a different way. The penalty at the Open de France host for a wayward driver is often a watery end. Again, greens are small with penalty severe for a miss. Kinhult also has a 5th there. He may well have made the Magical Kenya Open preview betting card had he shown any glimpse of form in the last 6 months. Julien Brun has gone 13-7 at Muthaiga and 13-6 at Le Golf National. It should provide a fascinating host course for the 2024 Paris Olympics, but is a handy guide for our Magical Kenya Open preview.

Weather

High winds are forecast for Nairobi to begin the week. Wind gusts above 30mph are no joke, even with some protection from the tall trees on this property.

Some rain is set to develop on Friday afternoon. As long as this does not become too severe this could prove beneficial in softening the greens, which can play pretty fast at times. If the rain becomes heavy in conjunction with the wind, it could become very difficult.

As the winds are quite consistent all day, I don’t think a substantial weather edge will develop for week long. You may see a small edge for those playing Thursday AM/Friday PM if light rain softens and slows greens. The caveat for that will come from the level of rain experienced Friday afternoon. For DFS purposes, I think a case could be made for building a number of line-ups in each direction to provide protection and leverage on the field.

Magical Kenya Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Magical Kenya Open, you can preview these in this article here in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

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One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have.

Thank you for reading my Magical Kenya Open preview and tournament analysis. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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Magical Kenya Open Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Before getting into our betting tips for the Magical Kenya Open, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive course analysis of Muthaiga Golf Club, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into ...

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Mexico Open Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Vidanta Vallarta is the host course for our Mexico Open preview

What a finish to the Genesis Invitational! You have to feel for all the Patrick Cantlay backers, who would’ve been ready to cash their tickets on Friday evening with the substantial lead he had established. Along with those on Cantlay, it was a bit of a frustrating week for our selections. Both Burns and Scott endured slow starts before finding their rhythm and finishing 10th and 15th respectively. Very poor final rounds from our long-shot selections Hossler (80/1) and Kitayama (100/1) saw them move from inside the Top 20 to miss out on the Top 20 bets. Fortunately, our final round match-up bets came through in a big way. We went 4/5 to restore some profit on the week. We only post match-ups rarely, when we see a definitive edge develop in our data. There may be more from our Mexico Open preview, with some particular quirks to this course.

It was quite some final round for Hideki Matsuyama, whose Masters price has subsequently crashed in from 50s into 28s. We actually just posted our first Masters future of 2024 in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord. It is well worth considering the promo highlighted above. We are basically giving away our product at 2 months for the price of 1, meaning it is just $49.99 for ALL sports Premium access. Simply use PROMO code “MASTERS” at check-out when you join at this link.

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Mexico Open Preview Vidanta Vallarta Course Analysis

As mentioned for our Mexico Open preview, this quirky course has some fairly key indicators for what is required to play well. That leads to many opportunities in betting markets and, also, in the round match-ups.

This is a resort style golf course that was never designed to be played by PGA Tour golfers. The setup is relatively easy and you are going to need to shoot low to be victorious this week. Playing at 7,456 yards for a par 71, it is one of the longer tracks on the PGA Tour. Bear in mind, the course is also at sea level. It will play every inch of that distance with no benefit from altitude. Par 4 and par 5 length are the longest on the PGA Tour at a whopping 495 yards on average.

In 2022, of the top 14 players 11 ranked in the top 24 for driving distance. Additionally, 9 of the top 14 players were in top 20 and 4 of the top 7 ranked in the top 10 for driving distance. It should come as no surprise for our Mexico Open preview that driving distance is ranked highly.

This also has an impact on approach shots. You will see a disproportionate number of shots with long irons this week. 35% of all iron shots will occur from over 200+ yards. Additionally, the 175-200 yard range sees another big uptick in correlation.

Finally, no Mexico Open preview would be completely without speaking about grass type. This is paspalum grass tee-to-green. This sticky grass is used rarely in the PGA Tour. It is found in seaside golf courses, as it is resistant to salt air and water. It tends to play very slow. We have seen a number of paspalum grass specialists develop over the years.

Vidanta Vallarta Course Comps

On the face of it, course history has not been very correlated to predicting success here. Bear in mind though, the Mexico Open has only hosted two events here so it has only been a brief preview into this course. Additionally, as it is regarded as a lesser field event there is quite a large transition in the field each rendition. We may see more correlation develop in time.

One of the best golf courses to use as a guide for your Mexico Open preview is Corales Golf Club. The course sits at a 7,670 yards par 72. Host of the Corales Puntacana Championship, it is another long golf course featuring paspalum. The new host of the World Wide Technology Championship, El Cardonal, is another long 7,452 yard par 72 in Mexico with paspalum greens.

Another worthy of preview in a Mexico Open analysis is Grand Reserve Country Club. Host of the Puerto Rico Open, it is a 7,506 yards par 72 again featuring paspalum. Tony Finau is a winner at both events. Akshay Bhatia also links these nicely.

The benefit of both of these courses is they not only take in similar agronomy, but also tick the box of exposed tropical golf courses. They are also more likely to feature common players, being alternate field events, to the more flagship PGA Tour stops.

Finally, some cases can be made for Korn Ferry Tour and DP World Tour events. The Korn Ferry Tour has two events in the Bahamas, in Panama, and the Astara Championship was in Colombia last week. All bear consideration. For the DP World Tour, Al Hamra should provide a nice course comp. It is a long track dominated by bombers with above average size greens, and features paspalum greens

Weather

The only other potential defense to this course, other than length, is the wind. Just as we saw last year, there is very little in the forecast. It is worth bearing in mind for DFS Showdown purposes that the AM is likely to provide the most advantage.

Given the exposed nature of this coastal track, wind gusts in the mid-teens are sufficient to put a slight dampener on rampant scoring. Overall, the on-shore breeze looks to consistently arrive around midday. However, as this consistent daily there is unlikely to be any tangible weather edge for week long selections.

If you play DFS showdown, my recommendation would be to look to the morning in nearly all instances.

Mexico Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Mexico Open, you can preview these in this article here in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

Find my Profit and Loss Tracker here.
We believe trust and transparency is key in this industry. We keep meticulous result tracking, so you can sign-up with the utmost confidence you are joining one of the sharpest golf bettors on the planet.

Two months to go to The Masters!
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Simply use PROMO code MASTERS and get Two Months for the Price of One!
That is just $49.99! For EVERYTHING!

You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value!

One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have.

Thank you for reading my Mexico Open preview and tournament analysis. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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