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AT&T Pebble Beach: Initial Picks

Brian Tulloch
written by Brian Tulloch

The PGA Tour is headed back to Cali for the AT&T Pebble Beach No-Am and we have another two course rotation this week between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill (three of the four rounds will be on Pebble Beach).  These two courses are relatively short but there is some benefit in being a long hitter on the gettable Par 5’s.  With that said, all types of golfers have won this event and all are in play.  My focus will be the usual APP and then OTT, but I’ll have a slightly bigger emphasis than normal on ARG as these POA greens are small and we may have some wind issues to deal with.  Join us for the Win Daily PGA Livestream for more on the picks below and many more picks from me and @draftmasterflex.  Let’s get to the AT&T Pebble Beach: Initial Picks.

Patrick Cantlay (11300) – The ball striking metrics jump off the page relative to the field now that Dustin Johnson has withdrawn.  I think Cantlay has the most win equity in this tournament and he is properly priced.  He is also playing in his home state which should help. 

Paul Casey (10400) – He won on the Euro Tour just two weeks ago and finished tied for 8th at The AmEx.  Ball striking is classically good with Casey and it’s always the short game that trips him up.  That could happen again, but recent history and course history give me the impression he will be very comfortable this weekend.

Francesco Molinari (9300) – Speaking of tied for 8th at the AmEx, Paul Casey was tied with none other than the resurgent Molinari.  He has sported two top 10 finishes in his last two events and seems to have found the game that he completely lost last year.  I won’t be overweight on Francesco but he’s a good course fit and is playing very well.

Kevin Streelman (8900) – He seems overpriced, even in this field, but his course history here is nothing short of spectacular.  In his last 5 tournaments at Pebble he has finished 2nd, 7th, 6th, 14th and 17th.  Add to that his recent form has been very good.

Henrik Norlander (8700) – Has fared pretty well here in the past, but more importantly, is quickly becoming a very good golfer.  In his last three tournaments he has finished 22nd, 2nd and 12th and he’s been great OTT and on APP.  The short game has been average, but he more than makes up for it with the ball striking.

Cameron Tringale (8500) – course history here is below average but recent history is very good and feels like a very good fit with his APP game.  He’ll lose a little OTT but I think Tringale will be good everywhere else.  Last week in Discord, a subscriber stated that Tringale’s price was “disrespectful” and that turned out to be true.  Hoping to have him churn out another good score this week.

Matt Jones (8100) – Jones consistently makes cuts and finished 5th here last year.  His ball striking numbers could be better, but in my estimation he’s a very under the radar guy with upside.

Peter Malnati (7800) – In this tournament the 7k range becomes pretty risky, but you’re going to have to take some big swings and there’s no bigger swing than Peter Malnati who can really be erratic with his ball striking.  He can get hot in an instant and that is evidenced in his rencent history and his course history.  Plenty of upside here.

Harold Varner III (7700) – HV3 simply hasn’t been good for quite some time, but I think we saw something last week with his 13th place finish in terms of putting a full four rounds together.  If you look at the quality of this field, if HV3 can even be close to what he was last week, then he pays off his pricetag and then some. 

Scott Stallings (7500) – I’m not going to be overweight on Stallings as there are plenty of guys that I want to take shots on in the 7k range (more on that during the Livestream/Podcast), but I am a fan of Stallings in general as his ball striking and short game are both solid.  He has a missed cut here in 2020 but prior to that he had a 3rd, 7th and 14th place finish.   

Michael Thompson (7200) – He and Kirk really let me down last week but I’ll probably go back to both in some lineups.  Thompson will lose strokes OTT but should gain in other areas.  His course history includes a 10th place finish in 2019 but also three missed cuts surrounding that.  A hunch play for me as I liked the form he exhibited prior to last week’s missed cut.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – I purposely did not include any 6k golfers in this Initial Picks article because I think this range is very bad this week.  I would avoid this range entirely if you can, other than the Secret Weapon of course, which will be in Discord Wednesday night.  You can also tune into tonight’s Livestream for more on 6k golfers to consider.

Thanks for reading my AT&T Pebble Beach: Initial Picks! Make sure to check back with Win Daily Sports all week for more content. See everyone tonight at 8:00 EST for the Win Daily PGA Livestream with Michael, Joel and myself. 

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PGA

Waste Management Phoenix Open: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

I’m very excited to arrive in Phoenix for multiple reasons, not the least of which is that we only have one course this week and we likely won’t have much by way of weather concerns.  This is definitely a ball strikers course with a premium focus on SG APP.  Being good OTT helps as always but this is a second shot golf course so I’ll be focusing on those metrics along with the typical focus upon recent form and course history.  Join me and Michael Rasile and the King of Showdowns, Joel Schrek, at 8:00 tonight for all of our DFS plays as we do our typical deep dive.  We will also be hitting you with our customary first round leader and outright bets (which I’ve hit two weeks in a row).  Let’s get to the Waste Management Phoenix Open: Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (11200) – A guy who consistently lands in the Top 10 with the upside for a takedown.  Rahm rates out 4th T2G and while he picks up more strokes OTT versus APP (I’d prefer the opposite here) I think he’s in great form and he’s coming home to a course he’s probably played a ton. 

Xander Schauffele (11000) – Like most DFS players, I get Xander wrong more than I get him right.  With that said, I really like what I saw from Xander last week on a course he usually can’t get right.  Last week he had to battle just to make the cut and then kept chipping away until falling into 2nd place.  There are guys with better course history than Xander and Rahm, but there my guys this week in the elite range.

Daniel Berger (9600) – Another guy with very good course history who is really rounding into form.  Right before the break he was trending to average but since then he’s finished 10th at Sentry and 7th at Sony.  I think his upside includes a 1st place finish, particularly if he finds a hot putter, which he has been known to do.

Will Zalatoris (9000) – This new kid on the block appears to have all the tools to compete with the best and he showed that last week, a feat particularly impressive since he had zero course experience at Torrey Pines.  Zalatoris doesn’t have a lot of PGA rounds under his belt, but the rounds he does have pop off the page particularly on APP. 

Russell Henley (8200) – Last time I thought this guy was a “safe play” he missed the cut at the American Express.  Henley dominates on APP, but a closer look shows that said domination occurs about half the time.  His track record here is hit or miss and his recent history is hit or miss, but if he’s hitting his irons right you are getting great value at this price.

Corey Conners (7900) – Corey is definitely part of team no-putt, but his ball striking is elite relative to the others in the 7k range.  He’s been a regular Top 25 finisher over the last few months, including a 10th at the Masters and a 10th at RSM.

Henrik Norlander (7500) – I’m always careful not to chase last week’s points and that’s certainly in play here, but the upside is too much to pass up with Norlander.  He was excellent last week with a 2nd place finish and 12th place right before that at The American Express.  The ball striking has been great and it looks like this guy has turned a corner.

Emiliano Grillo (7300) – Did someone say team no-putt?  Unfortunately Grillo is a captain of that squad but his ball striking is elite and I’m going to hope that he finds a warm putter (a “hot” putter is probably asking too much).  His course history here is average at best, but I still see him as a great value here.

Michael Thompson (7200) – Don’t look now, but Thompson might be the most underrated golfer in this entire field.  He’s got four top 25’s in the last four tournaments including a 5th at The American Express.  His ball striking has been very good lately and while he loses OTT, I expect him to pick up strokes everywhere else.

Sebastian Munoz (7100) – Once I’m down in this range I’m really looking for upside and that’s exactly what Munoz offers.  He can get really hot and can carry your DFS roster for at least a few days.  I’ll take some shots here.

Joel Dahmen (6800) – Joel does not have a good course history here and his recent history isn’t much better, but this is more of a hunch play as I believe in his game OTT and on APP and think he can be a big time scorer if he finds his game.  I’ll warn you that I won’t have many shares of Dahmen but I do love the upside.

Davis Riley (6100) – Another new kid on the block, but this guy is even newer than Will Zalatoris.  And by the way, in 2020 he absolutely crushed it on the Korn Ferry Tour with Will Zalatoris.  The KFT is no joke and I think this could be a diamond in the rough, but it’s not an SE or 3max play, it’s more of an MME play.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – tune into Discord Wednesday night.

See everyone tonight on the PGA Livestream on our YouTube page or on Twitter @windailysports and be sure to check out all of the PGA content at windailysports.com and in Discord. Thanks for reading my Waste Management Phoenix Open: Initial Picks.

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PGA

The American Express: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

We’ve got a full field event and two courses to consider over the first two days of the American Express.  This course has some land mines here and there, but it’s a pretty straightforward set up which primarily requires you to be great on APP.  You don’t have to be long off the tee so short hitters are certainly in play.  Catch our PGA show tonight at 8:00 EST for more on these initial picks and check out all our great content throughout the rest of this week.  You can also catch me on yesterday’s The First Cut Podcast with Rick Gehman so be sure to check that out. Now let’s get started with The American Express: Initial Picks.

Patrick Cantlay (11100) – A Cali kid who is just getting his season started.  The ball striking is on point with this guy and his T2G metrics are best in the field.  Not a guy I’m usually on, but in this field there’s no reason to think he’s not going to be battling late Sunday afternoon.

Matthew Wolff (9700) – Actually hasn’t been great over the last few months but that’s part of the reason I like him.  Hopefully his middling results keep ownership down, and if so, I’ll take the upside.  Keep an eye on ownership because if this guy gets popular, there are plenty of good pivots.

Scottie Scheffler (9500) – Has been good as of late with Top 20’s in 3 of his last 4 and finished 3rd here last year.  The AmEx will give up a lot of scoring and that’s typically where you want Scottie.

Abraham Ancer (9100) – He let a lot of people down last week (not me as I completely faded him), but his ball striking was actually very good.  He was good OTT and good on APP and he putted worse than I’ve seen him in quite some time.  Look for that to rebound and I think Ancer contends Sunday.

Russell Henley (9000) – Another guy who had great ball striking last week and bad putting, and yet, he still managed to put together a great finish.  Henley is just too good on APP to ignore at this point.

Adam Long (8500) – Has had success here with an outright win in 2019 (and a MC in 2020 by the way) and that may drive ownership up.  If it does, I’m out on Long but if the percentage is reasonable, he’ll be in some lineups.  He has been quite good the last few tournaments including a 3rd place finish at Mayakoba.

Si Woo Kim (8200) – Si Woo had a round of 87 at this same track last year.  Yes, an 87.  I’m on board regardless as I think he’s a great ball striker and if he can keep his head together he can contend in this field.  With that said, he’s on the riskier side so tread lightly.

Erik Van Rooyen (7900) – Was great with the ball striking last week and awful with the putter.  Give me the expected positive regression.  Pretty good price here. 

Emiliano Grillo (7800) – A great ball striker who I am going to go back to this week.  The putter almost always fails him but the ball striking is excellent. 

Joel Dahmen (7500) – A relatively easy course where you can pile up birdies?  Perfect.  Dahmen is good on APP and good OTT and is a flat out scorer.  With that said he can also tank your lineup (See Si Woo Kim) if things start going south.  His track record here isn’t great but he hasn’t played since 2018 so I’m basically going to ignore that.

Cameron Tringale (7400) – Typically bad OTT which shouldn’t hurt him here but great on APP which will be key.  I don’t want to lean on recent history too much as there was an extended break over the holidays, but he was pretty solid over his last couple tournaments.  His track record here is average at best.  Call this one of my hunch plays as opposed to a data driven play.

Tom Hoge (7300) – Another guy who let a lot of people down last week but one bad week isn’t a big enough sample size for me to auto-fade a guy.  He was good on APP last week but couldn’t get the putter going. I’m sure you’re sensing the theme of positive putter regression. 

Tyler Duncan (6800) – Accurate OTT and great on APP.  I’ll have the Steven Polardi special please.  I should note that his results here haven’t been great as he hasn’t cracked the Top 50 over the last few years, but you get what you pay for in this range and I like his prospects to make the cut.

Kramer Hickok (6700) – Has been good in the ball striking department if you look at his last 4-5 tournaments.  His track record here isn’t great but this is a sneaky guy that you might be getting super early if you get him now.

Secret Weapon (Less than 7k/Less than 5% owned) – Tune into Discord Wednesday night.

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PGA

Sentry Tournament of Champions: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

It feels like the break took way too long, but golf season is back and I couldn’t be happier to be a part of this Win Daily Team.  Join us Tuesday night (tonight!) at 8:00 EST for the PGA Livestream (You can watch on Twitter or our YouTube channel) and stay tuned for the numerous articles and Discord banter between now and tee time.  This course doesn’t present much by way of challenges as fairways are very easy to hit and so are the greens.  With that said, it does help to be long OTT, and as always, APP is an important factor (particularly the short iron game).  Also, the Bermuda greens are quite large, and sometimes undulating here, so this may be a tournament to put a little extra emphasis on putting.  This is a 42 person field and a no-cut event.  See everyone tonight on the Livestream.  Let’s get started with my Sentry Tournament of Champions: Initial Picks.

Dustin Johnson (11000) – I was a bit hesitant to include DJ because he is expensive and we’re not 100% sure he’s locked in post-Masters.  Over his last four efforts on this course he’s never finished worse than 7th (and he won it in 2018).  He’s not my favorite play, but he’s not a fade either.

Justin Thomas (10700) – Speaking of course history, JT has won here twice in the last four years and his game is perfect for this course as he can go long off the tee and kill it with his short irons.  His recent form has also been pretty impeccable with a 12th at Mayakoba, 4th at The Masters, 2nd at the Zozo and 12th at the CJ Cup.  If choosing between DJ or JT, I choose JT (and so will most others as JT is tracking at close to 30% while DJ is around 25%.  More on ownership during Tuesday night’s Livestream and Steven’s Wednesday ownership article).

Webb Simpson (9400) – This one is tricky because he’s not the best course fit, given that he’s a relatively short hitter, but that doesn’t preclude him from winning this thing.  Webb is accurate, great with irons and can get hot with the putter (putting may be key here).  Webb’s recent form isn’t great but it’s decent.  I think the break may have been good timing for him and I like him at what I expect to be relatively low ownership.

Collin Morikawa (8800) – Speaking of low ownership, Morikawa is enjoying some of that because his recent play hasn’t been great.  But he’s already won plenty on the PGA Tour and he’s typically great OTT and on APP.  This is a play on ownership percentage and price.  I’m willing to buy-low on a great ball striker who has already proven he can win.

Cameron Smith (8400) – Mr. Smith paid huge dividends for me and most of the Win Daily family during the Masters and I think he’s a guy that is going to really plant himself on the map this year.  With that said, he’s not necessarily a great course fit and he’s only played here once in the last 5 years and that was a modest 17th place finish.  Frankly, I don’t really care what Cam Smith did 3 years ago here, I’m trying to get in early on him.

Joaquin Niemann (8300) – This is a no-cut event and for me that means take the streaky players (see Ryan Palmer below).  Niemann can be inconsistent but that won’t cost you a missed cut this week and I think he has the talent to contend at the top if he can string together some of those aforementioned streaks.  His recent form has been average and perhaps that’s why his pricetag is so low, but he did finish 5th here last year.

Carlos Ortiz (7100) – Doesn’t grade out particularly well OTT or on APP but he is gaining in those categories (barely), but his recent form has been solid with an 8th at Mayakoba and an outright win in Houston.  I like the upside here.

Ryan Palmer (7000) – Did someone say upside?  I’m biased because I may be the actual President of the Ryan Palmer fan club, and when it comes to no-cut events, he’s a great option.  Yes, Palmer can blow up here or there, but he can put together great streaks, and frankly, his price here is a little disrespectful. 

Andrew Landry (6300) – We’re officially in the “take some chances” range here and last year I saw Andrew Landry put some solid rounds together.   Worth noting that his recent form is quite checkered with plenty of MC’s, but his last tournament was a 4th place finish at the RSM.

Secret Weapon – A field of 42 doesn’t really give much room for a 6k/less than 5% owned play so the first SW will be next week.  We will talk plenty about this 6k range in Discord though so stay tuned.

Thanks for checking out my Sentry Tournament of Champions: Initial Picks. See everyone tonight on the Livestream and don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast.  Welcome back!

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PGA

Mayakoba Golf Classic: Initial Picks

Josh Matigian
written by Josh Matigian

Mayakoba Golf Classic: Initial Picks

The Win Daily PGA team will be bringing you the customary content this week and the website and Discord chat are sure to be active over the next 24 hours.  Below are my Initial Picks for the Mayakoba and these picks incorporate recent form, course history and the appropriate strokes gained metrics (and maybe a hunch or two on golfers I’m expecting to surprise some people).  As for the metrics to focus upon, I’m looking for drivers that are accurate off the tee and APP and PUTT.  You do not need to be long off the tee on this course and that brings a few more golfers into the mix that can truly contend here. Tune into our Livestream tonight (and every Tuesday night) at 8:00 EST for more on these golfers and many more. Here are my Mayakoba Golf Classic: Initial Picks.

Brooks Koepka (11000) – Game is certainly rounding into form with a 7th at the Masters and a 5th at Houston and he feels like a great pivot off what will be a very chalky Justin Thomas.  If you want to roster JT instead of Koepka, that’s fine, but just know JT is likely to carry about 10% more ownership.  More on that with the @SicilyKid article on Wednesday and in Discord.

Viktor Hovland (9700) – His track record here doesn’t inspire confidence (two missed cuts) and he hasn’t been as good with the irons lately as I’d like, but I believe in his game too much to pass him up in this field.

Will Zalatoris (9200) – This guy is just red hot.  He’s been excellent OTT and even better on APP.  Add to that his last five tournaments he’s finished 16th, 5th, MC, 8th and 6th.  A nice finish here may get him into the OWGR Top 50 which automatically qualifies him for the 2021 Masters.

Corey Conners (9000) – His track record here isn’t good, but I’m willing to overlook that because his recent form has been great (three Top 10’s in his last four tournaments).  The strokes gained metrics add up as well as he has been great OTT and on APP.    

Carlos Ortiz (8900) – He’s been good with the ball striking lately and relatively good with the short game.  Add to that his recent form is obviously good with a 1st place in Houston and the fact that he finished 2nd here last year. 

Emiliano Grillo (8300) – If this man could ever get the putter going, his price would consistently be in the mid 9k range in fields like this.  The ball striking has been very good, particularly on APP.  Other than Houston he’s been easily making cuts and he’s made four cuts in a row here.

Joel Dahmen (8000) – We’re looking for scorers and this guy can get hot in a flash.  He’s high risk and high reward at times and when it unravels it can get bad, but his upside is too good for me to pass up. 

Doug Ghim (7400) – He’s been excellent on APP and solid with the short game, and oh yea, I picked him as 1st Round Leader on the Plantation course at the RSM and it hit (bang!).  He’s got three Top 25’s in the last three tournaments.

Austin Cook (7300) – He let us down at the RSM with an MC, but was very good prior to that.  He’s accurate OTT and can get hot on APP.  Has flashed enough recent upside for me to have him in some lineups.

Brice Garnett (7000) –Some questionable recent form for Garnett, but what you can’t question is how much he likes this track as his last four here he’s finished  11th, 5th, 25th and 7th.  Add to that he’s typically accurate OTT and we may be in the perfect spot for Garnett to pay off his price and then some.

Ryan Armour (6600) – I’m going to do my best to avoid the 6k range but if I need to dip down here, I think Armour is a great course fit.  He is a short hitter which immediately makes him relevant on this course and he is also typically accurate OTT which should set him up well on APP.  He’s made three cuts in a row here.

Secret Weapon (less than 6k/less than 5% ownership) – Tune into Discord on Wednesday.

See everyone tonight at 8:00 EST on the Livestream @windailysports on Twitter or on our Win Daily Sports YouTube channel.

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PGA

The RSM Classic: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

The RSM Classic: Initial Picks

After a monster week for the entire Win Daily family, we arrive at the RSM Classic. We have a full field and a lot of good names to choose from across all price ranges. Looking for ball striking metrics as usual, but the primary focus will be on accuracy. I’ll be taking a close look at APP, accuracy off the tee, ARG and putting (in that order). Tune into the Win Daily PGA Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST for more on the golfers below and many more. Let’s get to The RSM Classic: Initial Picks.

Webb Simpson (11200) – The most talented golfer in the field who happens to have a great course history and is in great form.  It’s expensive but it’s worth it.

Russell Henley (10100) – Tough to swallow at this price but he’s been great since the restart and exceptional on APP.  With that said, he was as mere 29th in Houston and has missed the cut at the RSM the last two efforts here.  I like Henley, but won’t be afraid to pay up for Webb.

Corey Conners (8900) – He’s played this course twice and has decent results but nothing spectacular.  More importantly, Conners has been in great form with five made cuts in a row and a 10th place finish last week in Augusta. 

Doc Redman (8000) – A great ball striker who was underwhelming last time we saw him in Houston.  He played this course last year and finished a respectable 23rd.  His ARG game has been flat out bad and that may cost him here, but I’m going to lean on the ball striking.

Brendan Todd (7800) – Usually thought of as a reliable option, Todd has been bad lately and that includes missed cuts in Augusta and Bermuda.  I won’t have a lot of shares of Todd but he actually is a good course fit so I’m going to bank on him turning things around this week at low ownership.

Austin Cook (7500) – My Secret Weapon at Houston and he finished a redeemable 24th.  Prior to that he was 2nd at the Shriners and has been great OTT and on APP.  Also, no stranger to a hot putter.  Oh, and by the way, he won it all here in 2018.

Harold Varner III (7400) – Likely a popular option in this range as this appears to be a bit of a misprice.  A good ball striker that has been relatively hot of late (last three 15th, MC, 13th).  He finished 23rd last time he played here in 2019.

Joel Dahmen (7400) – Last time we saw Dahmen he finished 8th at the Zozo and prior to that he wasn’t very good.  Add to that he hasn’t been very good at this event and it seems like he’s a bad option, but he’s typically a great ball striker and can get hot quickly. 

Cameron Tringale (7200) – He is very hit or miss at this event and his ball striking hasn’t been great lately, but I’m going with pedigree here and I expect Tringale to turn things around.

James Hahn (6900) – Was on him in Houston and he didn’t really pay off with a 50th place finish, but prior to that he had three Top 10’s in a row.  Ball striking numbers during that time have been great. 

Doug Ghim (6700) – I was on Ghim in Bermuda and he paid off big with a 14th place finish.  He’s got three Top 25’s over his last four events and he’s been great on APP and ARG.  I hope he’s not popular because this is big time value. 

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Check Discord

See you all tonight on the Livestream and don’t forget to subscribe to the Win Daily Youtube channel and the Win Daily podcast.

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PGAPremium

The Masters: The Betting Card

stephenbrown764@gmail.com
written by stephenbrown764@gmail.com

The Masters: The Betting Card

These are the bets I like “pre-flop” (copyright Gill Alexander from VSIN), but I need to emphasize that this tournament in particular is ripe for betting as the tournament moves along (in other words, the opportunity here is going to be after the tournament begins).  This is a result of a myriad of factors, including the weather and how debutantes will handle the course, but regardless of that, my biggest successes from an outright and matchups standpoint tend to be mid-tourney.  With that said, I like the bets below and I strongly advise jumping in Discord as this tournament moves along for my mid-tourney matchup and outright plays from the DraftKings Sportsbook. Here is my first ever Masters: The Betting Card.

72 Hole Matchups

Fitzpatrick (-125) over Kokrak

Si Woo Kim (-110) over Byeong Hun An

Lucas Glover (+110) over Gary Woodland

Christian Bezuidenhout (-106) over Bernd Wiesberger

Top 20 Finish

Patrick Cantlay (-110)

Jason Day (+100)

Patrick Reed (+100)

Ian Poulter (+300)

Corey Conners (+350)

Matt Wallace (+450)

1st round Leader

Tony Finau (33 to 1)

Abraham Ancer (66 to 1)

Jason Kokrak (66 to 1)

Si Woo Kim (80 to 1)

Sebastian Munoz (90 to 1)

Christian Bezuidenhout (100 to 1)

*Yes, I realize I have faded Kokrak in a matchup against Fitzpatrick.  Kokrak grades out well for this course, I’m just expecting more consistency out of Fitzpatrick over four days.

Outright Winner

Patrick Cantlay (28 to 1)

Parick Reed (30 to 1)

Matthew Fitzpatrick (66 to 1)

Abraham Ancer (125 to 1)

Lanto Griffin (200 to 1)

*These outright recommendations are exclusively predicated on value.  I believe that Dustin Johnson will win this tournament, but I’m not willing to take him at +850 in this field.  My hope would be that Dustin Johnson has one or two below average days to start the tournament so that I can add him to my outright betting card at longer odds.  Again, stay dialed in Discord as this tournament moves along for these types of plays. Make sure to check out the rest of our Masters content on Win Daily Sports!

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PGA

The Masters: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

The Masters: Initial Picks

The moment many of us have been waiting for is upon us.  We have finally arrived at Augusta and the Win Daily team will be blitzing you with content over the next 24 hours.  Join us tonight for the PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST and stay tuned for more articles from the Win Daily PGA crew.  And of course, join us in Discord as the conversation is likely to move at a rapid pace over the next couple of days.  As for the strokes gained metrics that I will be emphasizing, they go as follows:  APP, OTT, PUTT, ARG.  Most people have those first two metrics swapped, but I’m a sucker for a good APP game so there you have it (I have them ranked pretty much even).  I will also be putting a premium on Masters experience/course history. So here are my Masters: Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (10500) – Last time we saw Rahm he was finishing 2nd at the Zozo, but more importantly he’s been Top 10 at the Masters the last two times he played (9th and 4th).  It is very difficult to distinguish the Top 5 in this field because they all grade out well, but I’m rolling with Rahm and DJ.

Dustin Johnson (10000) – He has been amazing on APP and he’s in great form.  Not sure what else you need in terms of being convinced, but he’s got three TOP 10’s in his last three efforts at Augusta (2nd, 10th, 4th).  Seems like a very reasonable price as well.  Fire him up.

Xander Schauffele (9800) – Another guy with great form and good course history, albeit limited (2nd and 50th in his only two times at Augusta).  Xander isn’t dominant OTT but his T2G game is fantastic and he can get hot with the putter more often than most.  He also hasn’t missed a cut in his last nine majors.

Patrick Reed (9200) – Speaking of guys who can get hot with the putter, Reed has been automatic with the short stick over the last few tournaments.  As for the complete game, he has everything you need to win at Augusta and the proof of that comes by way of the green jacket hanging in his closet.  Reed shows up at majors and he should be dialed in this week. 

Jason Day (8400) – This guy can get hot or cold any given week, but he’s been relatively hot at the Masters over the last few years (5th, 20th, 22nd, 10th in his last four and made 9 of 10 cuts).  The form was great last week in Houston with a 7th place finish.  I won’t be overweight on Day, but I’ll have a few shares.

Louis Oosthuizen (7900) – Not a long hitter but plays great in big spots and has a pretty good track record here.  His upside seems to be limited given he doesn’t grade out super well in any SG metrics relative to others in the field, but again, plays well in the big ones, as recently illustrated by his 3rd place finish at The U.S. Open in 2020. 

Matthew Fitzpatrick (7600) – Good recent form and good track record at Augusta.  A guy that can also play well if the elements come into play.  Fitzpatrick has been good OTT and APP over the last four tournaments (he did have a missed cut at the U.S. Open but that was a tournament where he was uncharacteristically bad with the putter).

Kevin Kisner (7100) – A Steven Polardi special and a guy who has never missed the cut at the Masters.  I’m going with pedigree on this one as he isn’t necessarily a great course fit and he hasn’t been great OTT as of late, but my Masters experience bias is certainly in play here.  Get more on Kisner in our Discord chat from Steven.

Ian Poulter (7000) – Missed the cut at the last major (U.S. Open), but coming off a 12th at the CJ Cup and a 12th place finish at the Masters last year.  Poulter classically shows up for these events and I like the upside at this price. 

Corey Conners (6600) – Has made four cuts in a row and made the cut last year in his inaugural shot at the Masters.  Conners comes in with good form and checks the box with at least some course experience.  He’s also been good lately OTT and on APP.

Justin Harding (6300) – Not much recent good form to go off of here, but if you’re looking for a big punt play, you may as well take a guy who finished tied for 12th last year. 

Secret Weapon (sub 7k/less than 5% owned) – We struck with Austin Cook last week.  Join us in Discord tomorrow for this week’s Secret Weapon.

See you on the Livestream tonight and don’t forget to subscribe to the Win Daily Sports podcast and YouTube page. Thank you for enjoying my Masters: Initial Picks, stay tuned for my Masters Best Bets article which will be out on Win Daily Sports Wednesday!

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PGA

The Masters Tournament: News, Notes, Musings, A Sleeper

Steven Polardi
written by Steven Polardi

The Masters Tournament: News, Notes, Musings, A Sleeper

Amen Corner. Rae’s Creek. Hogans Bridge.

We all immediately recognize that association to The Masters, amen corner was coined in 1958, the same year the United States invented the first microchip and the two #1 songs that year were Jerry Lee Lewis Great Balls of Fire, and The Chipmunks Christmas Song featuring Alvin, Elvis might have come up with a #1 but he was inducted into the Army that year. It’s amazing that a young man with degrees in Engineering, A Law Degree and in English Lit from Harvard had enough time to play a little golf, and build a golf course 90 years ago that’s pretty special.

Robert Trent Jones, aka Bobby Jones, won the grand slam of golf in 1930, among many other championships, and was considered to be, at that time, the greatest golfer to ever play the game, back in 1856 a company was formed called Fruitland Nurseries in Augusta which purchased an Indigo plantation, and they sold trees, shrubs and Azaleas. In 1931 their slogan was the Oldest Nursery in the South until Bobby, Dr. Alister Mackenzie, and Louis Berckmans bought it, designed it, and turned it into Augusta National in 1932. The first round was played in 1933, and the first tourney, called the Augusta NIT was played in 1934, Horton Smith won the inaugural event with a 284, and even back then people knew how special this place would be and would become, it was the first national radio broadcast of a golf event ever staged. Through the years it has stood the test of time, Sam Snead was awarded the first green jacket in 1949. Jack Nicklaus won his first masters in 1964, he won his sixth in 1986, spanning 3 decades and becoming the oldest golfer to do so, and the golfer with the most victories. Tiger Woods is the youngest to ever win with the lowest score and widest margin of victory. Tiger, last years winner, will be on the prowl stalking the course Thursday morning. Now for some more timely Masters Tournament News.

Sergio Garcia came down with Covid and had to decline his invitation to play, some of those not invited include Daniel Berger and Victor Hovland.

The Masters will no longer use the 10 strokes rule when making the cut. Normally 50 golfers, ties, and anyone within 10 strokes of the leader would be allowed to continue on Saturday, now it’s just 50 and ties. They will also use staggered tee times and threesomes, CBS wants to be able to broadcast the late NFL game on Sunday, so they want to be finished before 400 EST.

There is rain in the schedule for Thursday and Friday, which will soften up the greens, make the course more accessible and produce pin hunting golfers by the boatload, if they use that same strategy when it dries on Saturday and Sunday they won’t be happy at all.

Last week Sia and I agreed on the same golfer without even discussing him once, we found out when we made our picks. Austin Cook finished in 24th place, and Sia and I are so proud he brought great value at 6900 and a 2% ownership. This brings Sia’s Secret Weapon total to 21-2, as in 21 wins guys. Speaking of wins, Steve Wynns, owner of about every hotel and  property in Las Vegas would throw out anyone with a record like that. Don’t forget that Sia’s Secret Weapon goes out Wed aft/eve on Discord, and they have the red hot scorching Live Stream that’s picking up steam on Tuesday nights at 8 with Michael, Sia and Joel. CNN was complaining last Tuesday eve that their ratings went down right at 7:02 when the election news was breaking and allegedly tried to jam the live stream to get their viewers back. Networks. Go figure.

Guys my last 4 out in left field plays have all made the cut and brought value, forgive me if I don’t put that in the same paragraph as Sia’s record, I would lose that show me yours contest.

My early pick from the model for this week is Kevin Kisner, right now I feel he is way under the radar and he knows this course, he should be low owned and a cut maker who can move the needle. NOTE: I will update this pick in my article on ownership projections on Wednesday.

Guys this is Masters week, I’ve probably had 7 hours sleep since Sat night feeding the models raw data and mining the data from the majors and the Houston Open players that will play Thursday. This one is important, and it’s special, to all of us. Thanks for enjoying some of my thoughts on Masters Tournament: News, and enjoy everything else coming down the pipeline!

As always, I hope to be with you, in the money.

Steven/ Sicily Kid

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PGA

Houston Open: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

Houston Open: Initial Picks

Brand new course so we will not have any course history to utilize.  Much like the Zozo we’ve got five par 3’s and five par 5’s so you’ll want golfers who can take advantage of the Par 5’s.  With that said, make sure you roster guys that are good on APP (and who are particularly good with their long irons as that will be a factor on some of the long Par 4’s and Par 3’s) as the winner of this tournament will need to be precise with his second shot and not get caught up ARG.  Tune in tonight (Tuesday night) at 8:00 EST for the PGA Livestream and make sure you subscribe to the podcast and our YouTube page.  See you tonight. Here are my Houston Open: Initial Picks.

Tyrrell Hatton (10300) – Looking for great ball strikers who can get red hot on any given day.  Sure, the other guys in this elite range fit that mold, but a few of them may be looking ahead to the Masters and I don’t think Hatton has that mentality.

Viktor Hovland (9800) – I’m a Hovlang guy for sure, but my bias aside, you can’t deny his iron and T2G game.  My hope is that Hovland doesn’t need to worry about ARG because his APP shots are on point.  It’s looking like Hovland will be relatively low owned in this range.

Doc Redman (8800) – A great ball striker who flashed last week with a 4th place finish.  He’s a great ball striker and he’s in good form which is a good enough recipe to have Doc on your roster.  Doc’s ARG game has not been good so you’re really looking for him to be great with the ball striking which he has proven he can do.

Cameron Davis (8100) – May be a popular guy at this price as he can hit it a long way and hopefully take advantage of the five par 5’s.  Add to that he’s made seven cuts in a row and you have a guy with a good floor and plenty of upside.

James Hahn (8000) – Has played in three tournaments since September and his finishes in those tournaments are 5th, 6th and 9th (Safeway, Puntacana, Shriners).  I’m not a Hahn guy but I can’t ignore this recent form.  With the exception of the Workday, Hahn’s ball striking has been fantastic and he’s shown the ability to flash with the putter (full disclosure Hahn missed 6 of 7 cuts immediately prior to his recent incredible Top 10 streak).

Stewart Cink (8000) – His lack of length isn’t ideal, but he’s been excellent on the Par 3’s and there are five of them here.  I think his ball striking should be good enough to fare well on the rest of the holes.  Add to it he has his son back on the bag and that seemed to be a difference making factor last week.

Denny McCarthy (7900) – Coming off a 4th place finish last week and has been very impressive since the summer.  He’s made 9 of his last 10 cuts with three top 10 finishes in that span.  He also happens to be an excellent putter and it doesn’t appear like the regression is coming with the flat stick.

Adam Schenk (7100) – The guy just refuses to miss the cut (jinx?).  I think it’s 10 cuts in a row at this point.  The problem is that he doesn’t seem to ever finish in the Top 20.  Perhaps a conservative play here, but I can’t ignore his ability to play four days.

Scott Stallings (6900) – Been in decent form as of late and that includes a 26th place finish last week and a 6th place at the Sanderson (in between those two he missed the cut at the Shriners).  He’s been great on APP thus far this year.  His short game needs some work but good value here.

Austin Cook (6900) – Flashed last time we saw him play at the Shriners where he lost in a playoff.  He’s been inconsistent with the ball striking but you’re going to get that in this range.  He’s made 8 out of 9 cuts.

Carlos Ortiz (6700) – When Ortiz is great with the ball striking he’s terrible with the putter.  And when he’s great with the putter, he’s terrible with the ball striking (last time out at the Zozo he gained over six strokes on APP but lost almost six strokes putting).  The guy hasn’t put it together but you’d think it’ll all come around at some point.  This is a punt play for sure, but has some upside. 

Secret Weapon (sub 7k/less than 5% owned) – stay tuned and see you in the Win Daily Discord channel.

See everyone tonight and make sure you jump into Discord!

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