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The Masters: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

Hello Friends and Welcome to the Masters: Initial Picks.  The entire Win Daily PGA Team will have plenty of the usual content coming so stay tuned for that and stay tuned to Discord and the Win Daily Podcasts and Livestreams.  Content related to course dynamics will come out later in the week (i.e. – The Insight Sheet), but I can tell you that I’m looking for ball strikers (OTT and APP) with a greater emphasis than usual OTT.  Having the all-around game is certainly a bonus.  One additional thing to keep in mind is that there are only 89 golfers in this field so ownership percentages will look a little higher than normal.  More on that on our PGA show and in the Win Daily Sports Ownership Breakdown.  Now let’s get to The Masters picks.

Dustin Johnson (11500) – The best in the world has been a little off lately, but he’s had a couple weeks to gather himself and even if the entire game isn’t pristine, he should do well.  Pricing is soft as expected so there’s no issue with paying the heavy price and making a lineup you are comfortable with.   Since 2015, DJ has finished 6th, 4th, 10th, 2nd and 1st at the Masters.  No, that’s not a typo.

Bryson DeChambeau (10800) – Certainly a great course fit and the recent play checks out with a 3rd at the Players and a 1st at the API (match play struggles don’t worry me at all).  Bryson’s finishes in previous Masters appearances are not great, but then again, most of those efforts he was literally a different player/species.  I’m happy to take the upside at the heavy price.

Xander Schauffele (10000) – It’s early but I get the sense Xander is going to carry a slight ownership discount relative to big names right next to him like Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas.  The truth is that Xander has been very mediocre as of late, but we know he has the all-around game to compete with the best, as he illustrated in 2019 with a 2nd place finish. 

Patrick Cantlay (9800) – When you actually watch Cantlay play, nothing jumps off the screen relative to the Bryson’s and DJ’s of the world, but don’t be fooled as he is truly great in every area (OTT, APP, ARG and PUTT).  A very fair price here.

Collin Morikawa (9600) – In 2020, Morikawa finished tied for 46th in his Masters debut.  Now that he’s got some Masters experience under his belt, I’ll go ahead and lean on the ball striking and hope for a decent putting performance.  Collin rates out as the best in the ball striker department (OTT and APP combined) since the beginning of this calendar year.

Viktor Hovland (8700) – Didn’t play in 2020, but did finish 32nd in his debut in 2019.  Hovland’s ball striking is elite and his short game is coming along.  If he were coming in with better recent form (3 below average tournaments in a row) then he’d be in the mid-9k range.  I’m willing to take a chance on him in spite of the bad recent stretch. 

Sungjae Im (8600) – Sungjae has been very consistent and has the game to succeed here, as evidenced by his 2nd place finish in his debut in 2020.  His game translates to this course and his price gives you an easy and relatively safe mid-tier option to roster.

Sergio Garcia (7900) – Sergio has missed his last two cuts at The Masters, but he did win in 2017.  He’s great OTT and great on APP and fits into my BS mold (Top 10 this Calendar year), but perhaps more importantly, his putting has picked up lately and I see no reason why he can’t contend here on Sunday.

Abraham Ancer (7400) – Granted, the 2020 track at the Masters is going to play differently than what we will have in 2021 (October versus April), but Ancer should come in with plenty of confidence as he finished T13 in 2020 in spite of a horrific 76 on Sunday.  I like Ancer’s all-around game and expect him to outscore his price.

Joaquin Niemann (7400) – Plenty of upside with Neimann as he has been striking the ball very well in 2021.  Those performances have translated into Top 30 finishes over his last 4 tournaments, which is good, but frankly I think he’s on the cusp of turning those Top 30’s into Top 15’s.  Niemann has one appearance at The Masters which resulted in an MC in 2018.

Victor Perez (7000) – Very risky play who certainly won’t be in my core lineups, but his last two PGA Tour events he’s been very good with the ball striking and I’m hoping he may have found something to give your lineups big time ownership leverage as potential pivots from guys like Corey Conners.

Corey Conners (6900) – A great ball striker who is likely to be chalky so be prepared to pivot if needed.  Conners is a touch underpriced here so I see value, particularly in cash game lineups.  As for GPP’s, we will have plenty of pivots as the week progresses so stay tuned for those options as the content comes pouring out.

Si Woo Kim (6700) – Your ultimate hit or miss golfer who has had plenty of missed cuts in his recent play.  With that said, he’s had some good showings as well with a 9th at the Players and some solid play at the Valero Texas Open.  Add to that he’s got 3 Top 35’s his last 3 years at the Masters and you’ve got some upside here.

Ryan Palmer (6500) – Hasn’t played here in a long while but he does have plenty of experience at The Masters (his last appearance was a 33rd place finish in 2015).  His ball striking game is too good to be this low in the pricing and he’s great value here.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in The Win Daily Sports PGA Discord.

Don’t forget to tune into the PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST on Tuesday and don’t forget to subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store. 

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PGA

Valero Texas Open: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

Valero Texas Open: Initial Picks

For some of the golfers this week, Valero is the final tune up before the Masters, and for others, this is the last tournament before they get to watch the Masters on TV next week.  Either way, we have decent field that is likely going to be playing in moderately windy conditions at this 7500 yard Par 72 at TPC San Antonio.  I’m looking for ball strikers as usual, but I will also give a slight bump to Driving Accuracy and ARG.  With that said, we are looking for ball strikers this week as is typically the case. The Win Daily team has quite a bit coming for this tournament, but let’s get started with the Valero Texas Open: Initial Picks.

Corey Conners (9500) – The ultimate ball striker who has great recent history plus a great track record at this course as the defending champion.  I like his chances at an outright win.

Ryan Palmer (9400) – An earlier exit than he would have liked last week, but he may have actually played better than Jon Rahm.  This is a Texas guy that has been striking the ball great lately.  I don’t love the price and you can easily pivot to a less popular golfer like Branden Steele, but Palmer is a solid play.

Cameron Tringale (9300) – I like every single guy in this 9k range but I do think Tringale and Steele may be slightly lesser owned than the rest of the range, and that’s why I like Tringale here.  His track record here isn’t great but he did have a 17th place finish last year.  I like his all around game and think he will be competing on Sunday.

Chris Kirk (8600) – Has been very good lately in the ball striking department and is piling up the good finishes as a result.  3 of his last 4 at Valero have resulted in Top 15’s so he’s clearly comfortable here.

Adam Hadwin (8300) – Hasn’t been on many people’s radar lately and that’s for good reason, but his swing is starting to remind me of a Hadwin from a couple years ago and I think he’s a sneaky GPP option.

Brendan Grace (7800) – Another sneaky GPP option who has a game that may be rounding into form.  He also has a great track record here with two Top 10’s his last two efforts here (2017 and 2016).  Add to that the wind is likely to be consistently in the double digits this week and he should handle that just fine.

John Huh (7400) – His track record here is average at best, but his ball striking as of late has been excellent and I think he has sneaky value at this price.

Doug Ghim (7300) – Typically a good ball striker who has recently flashed plenty of upside.  Now that his price has come down to a more realistic number I think he has some value here.

Matthew NeSmith (7100) – We are looking for good ball strikers, and while NeSmith had a bit of a rough patch earlier this month, he appears to have bounced back with a 36th place finish at the Honda.  If he reverts back to his solid ball striking that he started 2021 with, he’ll make the cut and get your lineups in the green.

Roger Sloan (6700) – No history here other than an MC in 2019 but he’s good enough OTT and on APP to make the cut.  He’s got 3 Top 25’s in his last three tournaments.  Mind you, 2 of those 3 were at alternate PGA events, but I like the upside here when you consider the price.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Check out the SW every Wednesday night in the Win Daily Discord PGA Channel. 

Check us out on the Win Daily PGA Livestream (on our YouTube channel and @windailysports) tonight and be sure to ‘smash’ that LIKE button and subscribe, rate and review the Win Daily Podcast on Apple Podcasts.  See you tonight at 8:00 EST!

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PGA

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play: Group Picks

Sia
written by Sia

The Florida swing is finally over and the PGA Tour is now in Texas for the WGC Dell-Technologies Match Play.  It is imperative that you print a bracket or look at a bracket while you are creating your DFS teams.  Why?  You need to try and create a lineup that provides the opportunity for your selected players to last as long as possible in the tournament.  More on this on tonight’s PGA Livestream (it has also already been discussed in Discord but feel free to ask any questions there as well).  As for this Initial Picks article, I’m going to do things a bit differently by providing my favorite picks from each group, starting on the Dustin Johnson side of the bracket and then going to the Justin Thomas side of the bracket.  Tune into the Livestream to find out who me and Joel Schrek have in the Final Four for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play: Group Picks.

Dustin Johnson side of the bracket [Group Winners]

Dustin Johnson – When you look at the manner in which points can be racked up in this tournament, it’s hard not to like DJ, particularly due to his relatively easy group draw.

Sungjae Im – His group has potential everywhere but I like the consistency of Im and expect him to emerge over those in his group.

Webb Simpson – Paul Casey will be the most popular one in this group and that’s for good reason, but I do have a lean this week to good putters and will take the good putting and pedigree of Webb.  Gooch is an interesting darkhorse here.

Bryson DeChambeau – He’s playing too well and his group is relatively easy.  Could rack up points in a similar fashion as DJ in his group stage.

Tony Finau – he is the class of his group and I expect him to emerge, but if you are looking to save some DFS cash, the other options are appealing.

Viktor Hovland – It’s either Hovland or Ancer here.  I like both, but I’m going with Hovland who I think has such incredible consistency week to week. 

Max Homa – I’ll note that Collin Morikawa rates out very well here and I know that @sicilykid is all over him this week (and of course Patrick is as well), but my putter bias this week is going to fade the potential inconsistency of Mori’s putter.  Homa is a grinder and has been playing well. 

Justin Thomas side of the bracket [Group Winners]

Justin Thomas – He’s in the alleged “group of death” but I don’t think he has much to fear.  JT’s opponents in this group have quite the history but their current form doesn’t measure up.

Jordan Spieth – I think match play is the perfect type of tournament for Spieth and I think someone with his iron game and red hot putting could win this thing.

Patrick Cantlay – I think Cantlay wins his group by default. 

Patrick Reed – You can make an argument for anyone in this group and I think Niemann and CBez are very compelling options if you need the DFS discount.  With that said, I just love Reed’s mental makeup and putting skills in match play.

Xander Shauffelle – plenty of upside in this group but I’ll take the consistent option.

Cam Smith – Everyone knows that I’ve never been on team Rory and that remains this week.  Poulter’s match play record is outstanding but I prefer Cam’s overall game.  With that said, Lanto and Poulter are solid pivots if you need the savings.

Brendon Todd – Not a fan of EVR or English this week and that just leaves Daniel Berger who is less than a week removed from a WD and  days removed from an MRI.  And he’s going to play the 7 rounds it will take to win this tournament?  No thanks, give me the classically good ball striker who has a good putter.

Ryan Palmer – There will be plenty of upsets this week and one of my biggest will be Ryan Palmer to come out of the John Rahm group.  Yes it’s risky but he can get hot at any moment and when he does, he can play with the big boys. 

Thanks for checking out my WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play: Group Picks! See everyone tonight on the Livestream.  It’s very important this week to tune into the Livestream OR listen to the Podcast as this format is very unique.  Getting into Discord is important as usual too.  See you there!

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PGA

The Honda Classic: Initial Picks

Marco Morales
written by Marco Morales

This week we have a very tough course with a very watered-down field, which may mean we will see even more carnage than last week. My focus will be on APP with OTT and ARG trailing close behind. Make sure you stay with us on the PGA Livestream and in Discord for updates as there are plenty of potential WD’s still to come and some wind concerns. See you tonight on the Livestream! Here is The Honda Classic: Initial Picks.

Daniel Berger (10800) – Over the last 12 rounds he’s gaining in a big way with the BS (both APP and OTT) and we know his outstanding pedigree goes well beyond a mere 12 rounds.  He’s also from this area and has made three cuts in a row the last three years, including a 4th place finish last year.  Note, we need to monitor his rib injury so stay tuned for more news on that.

Talor Gooch (9300) – Definitely a golfer on the rise.  His pricetag is high and I’m hopeful that creates some ownership leverage, but we’ll need to wait for Steven’s article to confirm.  The ball striking has been very good, particularly on APP and he typically gains in all categories.  He’s coming off a 5th last week and a 20th on this course in 2020.

Cameron Tringale (9100) – In every tournament he’s played this calendar year, dating back to AmEx in January, he’s gained in Ball Striking.  His only questionable ball striking tournament was the API where he lost on APP (but still gained in overall BS). 

Chris Kirk (9000) – He has really played well this year with 5 out of 6 made cuts, including two Top 10 finishes.  Last week the putter let him down, but he’s been great with the ball striking and the short game and should be there on Sunday.

Brendan Steele (8700) – A steady ball striker who I’m not typically selecting in DFS, but in a watered down field, he feels like a relatively safe play with upside.  He’s been making cuts at a prolific rate and his last four on this track were 4th, MC, 14th and 14th. 

Keegan Bradley (8400) – He gained almost 3 strokes on APP on Sunday at the Players.  He’s one of the best ball strikers in this field and is starting to find the putter.

Kevin Streelman (7700) – He’s coming off a missed cut, mostly thanks to a bad putter, but the ball striking this year has been very good.  A good course fit in spite of not having much success here in the past.

Cameron Percy (6900) – Has been very consistent in the ball striking department and gained in all SG metrics last week at the Players.  He’s made 4 out of 6 cuts in 2021 and in this watered down field, I expect him to make the cut again. 

Scott Stallings (6500) – He gained on APP every single tourney this year (he’s played in 5).  He’s going to need to be average OTT and average with the short game, which he sometimes struggles with, but I’m willing to take the chance here.

Secret Weapon (Less than 7k/Less than 5% owned) – see you in Discord.

See everyone tonight and please be sure to be in Discord tomorrow as these picks develop and as more articles come in from the team.

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PGASports BettingPremium

THE PLAYERS Betting Sheet

StixPicks
written by StixPicks

THE PLAYERS Betting Sheet

Get ready for another fun week of golf with all the sweats you could ask for! We have THE PLAYERS Betting Sheet here for you to work with. Matchups, Top 40s, outrights, and everything in between to get you a positive week at the sportsbook! Looking for some DFS content? We have that too!

Make sure to check out the Bettor Golf Podcast where we give you extensive details on what to look for this week with our special guest David Bearman of ESPN! Give it a listen and a 5-star review while you’re at it! Follow along too @BettorGolfPod @StixPicks @TeeOffSports!

Team/PlayerSportSportsBookLineUnit Risk
Collin Morikawa to WinPGAFanduel+22000.40
Viktor Hovland to WinPGAPointsBet+28000.20
Patrick Cantlay to WinPGADraftkings+22000.20
Tony Finau to WinPGAFanduel+32000.50
Scottie Scheffler to WinPGADraftkings+50000.40
Cam Smith to WinPGADraftkings+55000.20
Nate Lashley Top 40PGAFanduel+3600.60
Lanto Griffin Top 40PGAPointsBet+1800.30
Cameron Tringale Top 40PGAPointsBet+2601.75
Russ Henley Top 40PGAPointsBet+1800.40
Keegan Bradley Top 40PGAPointsBet+2500.30
Doug Ghim Top 40PGAPointsBet+3000.25
Scottie Scheffler Top 40PGADraftkings-1102.00
Tony Finau Top 20PGAPointsBet+1400.80
Viktor Hovland Top 20PGADraftkings+1500.60
Hideki Matsuyama Top 30PGADraftkings+1300.60
Tyrell Hatton to WinPGADraftkings+35000.40
Matchups: Tommy Fleetwood over Patrick ReedPGAFanduel+1200.90
Matchups: Scottie Scheffler over Daniel BergerPGAFanduel-1080.80
Matchups: Tony Finau over Daniel BergerPGADraftkings-1200.80
Matchups: Will Zalatoris over Sungjae ImPGADraftkings+1050.30
Matchups: Jason Day over Abraham AncerPGADraftkings-1090.40
Matchups: Cam Smith over Joaquin NiemannPGADraftkings-1090.80
Paul Casey Top 40PGAPointsBet+1001.50
Chris Kirk Top 40PGAPointsBet+2400.50
Emiliano Grillo Top 40PGAPointsBet+2600.40
Cam Davis Top 40PGAPointsBet+2400.30
John Rahm To WinPGAFanduel+17000.30
Adam Scott to WinPGAFanduel+85000.15
Collin Morikawa Top 20PGADraftkings+1250.50
Viktor Hovland Top 20PGADraftkings+1500.50
Harold Varner Top 40PGAPointsBet+3200.50
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PGA

The Players Championship: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

The Florida swing continues with the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass.  This is a 7200 Par 72 which will test your APP more than any other metric.  I’m looking for APP first and then OTT and PUTT.  Tune into our PGA Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST for more on the entire field and stay tuned for more articles and picks from the entire Win Daily team.  For now, let’s get to The Players Championship: Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (10900) – I really like skipping this elite range all together but I’ll have a few shares of each here and there.  My favorite play is Rahm of the Big Four because his ball striking is simply great and if he can get the putter going, he could definitely win.  I also like the fact that he’s likely to be less owned than both DJ and Rory so it’s a nice way to pick up a little bit of ownership leverage right off the bat.

Webb Simpson (9500) – A great course fit who played well enough, after a long break, to finish 6th at the WGC-Workday.  Last three years here he’s finished 16th, 1st and 16th.  A very acceptable price for a high floor/high upside golfer.

Collin Morikawa (9400) – Hasn’t played here but certainly has the skill set to take this tournament down for back to back wins.  Morikawa is a star and has too much potential to ignore in this one. He finished in a tie for 7th after Round 1 of The Players last year (before it got cancelled).

Viktor Hovland (9300) – It’s possible that his unimpressive weekend will keep ownership relatively low, especially when you consider all the studs in this range.  I don’t think we need to read too much into his poor Saturday and Sunday at the API.  Hovland also finished in a tie for 7th after last year’s Round 1 of the Players.

Tony Finau (9100) – I tend to ignore Tony, but it’s getting harder and harder to ignore the ball striking and the short game.  Put simply, he rates out really well in every SG category and that makes him a great value at this price.  His track record here isn’t great but he did finish 22nd here in 2019.

Tommy Fleetwood (7900) – We will talk about the 8k range on the Win Daily PGA Livestream but I’m not a huge fan of it and I’m not going to force a pick there for purposes of this Initial Picks article.  I do think Fleetwood could easily be priced in the low 8k range.  I was impressed with what he did at API and if the irons are back to being consistent, this will be a great pick.  Last two finishes here were 5th and 7th.

Will Zalatoris (7600) – The last couple of tournaments have appered underwhelming, but the young gun continues to play well and managed to finish 10th at the API.  More importantly, he continues to pick up strokes everywhere but with the putter.  If we get the same ball striking and an average putter, WillyZ pays off his price tag easily.

Abraham Ancer (7500) – A good price for a golfer who may have recaptured some form and has proven he can hang around the top of the leaderboard on weekends.  A good ball striker who finished 12th here in 2019.

Ryan Palmer (7300) – I have to admit, this one feels a bit scary but the common trend in DFS is to underprice Palmer and I’m always looking for value.  He is generally very inconsistent and his track record at The Players establishes that with rotating MCs, but I’ll take the chance here.

Cameron Tringale (7200) – He wilted for most of the tournament at the API, but he’s a consistent golfer who is great on APP and that’s what you are going to need here. 

Emiliano Grillo (6700) – Has made three cuts in a row here and his ball striking is typically pristine.  With that said, he hadn’t been as good on APP until until the API.  If the APP and OTT game are in sync this weekend then he will make the cut and score some points over the weekend.

Richy Werenski (6400) – Closed the API in impressive fashion and ended up with a 4th place finish. He’s made 5 cuts in a row and he’s doing it with the long and short game.  He has played here twice and finished 47th and 23rd.  At this price range you’re not going to find better value.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in Discord.

See everyone tonight on the Livestream. Don’t forget to subscribe to our Win Daily Sports YouTube page and Apple podcasts. And make sure you check out the Bettor Golf Podcast which will drop Wednesday morning.

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PGAPremium

Arnold Palmer Invitational Final Ownership

Steven Polardi
written by Steven Polardi

Arnold Palmer Invitational Final Ownership

Greetings from the southern east coast known as Florida, where this week the top PGA field will battle it out on a very tough and very respected Bay Hill course, and I, in my spare time, will be using my algorithm model to fleece nursing home patients out of their bingo money. This week we use the model for the Arnold Palmer Invitational Final Ownership.

There is a rumor Sia and Joel and some of the gang may get press passes to the Honda Classic coming up, I have volunteered to fight off the large gators in Sia’s back yard until he returns, and I will state beforehand I have no knowledge of what happened to all his neighbors’ pets.

Collin Morikawa smoked the back nine last week to take the WGC Workday tourney, Patrick “Sharps” Scott was passing out cigars like he had a kid. Its funny how Collin was scheduled to appear this week and then vanished, it’s rumored that when Patrick spoke to the authorities and told them the kidnappers only wanted some life-size posters, signed balls, and gloves from Morikawa that he became a possible suspect. Patrick, I did speak to the commander and, no, you do not get a badge for being a suspect. Joel “talk to my accountant” Shrek aka Draft Master Flex took down another $50,000 this past Saturday, he now has his own listing on the NYSE as DMFlex. With the news out of the way, let’s get down to the Arnold Palmer Invitational Final Ownership Projections!

PLAYEROWNERSHIPSALARY
McIlroy, Rory25.4115000
Hovland, ViKTOR24.610600
Molinari, Francesco20.98700
Hatton, TyrRell19.710000
Burns, Sam18.88400
Kokrak, Jason18.58100
Im, Sungjae17.59700
Casey, Paul16.49100
Zalatoris, Will16.08600
Fitzpatrick, Matthew15.49800
DeChambeau, Bryson15.011000
Horschel, Billy15.08900
Leishman, Marc14.28200
Reed, Patrick13.810200
Davis, Cameron12.47900
NeSmith, Matthew12.16900
Tringale, Cameron10.87700
Griffin, Lanto10.17700
Oosthuizen, Louis9.98800
Matsuyama, Hideki9.29400
Day, Jason9.29200
Homa, Max9.18500
Conners, Corey9.07300
Fleetwood, Tommy8.69000
Na, Kevin8.48000
List, Luke8.37200
Rose, Justin7.97800
Spieth, Jordan7.49300
Fowler, Ricie7.47800
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan7.27500
Grillo, Emiliano7.17400
Clark, Wyndham7.17000
Kirk, Chris6.57000
English, Harris6.48300
Munoz, Sebastian6.36700
Gooch, Talor6.17900
Norlander, Henrik5.97200
Kisner, Kevin5.88000
Poulter, Ian5.77300
Todd, Brendan5.77300
Noren, Alex5.27300
Stanley, Kyle5.16500
Jones, Matt5.07400
Johnson, Zach5.06900
Champ, Cameron4.96600
Mitchell, Keith4.46700
Hoffman, Charlie4.27600
Kim, Si Woo4.07500
An, B3.67100
Rodgers, Patrick3.66800
Howell III, Charles3.46600
Kizzire, Patton3.46800
Taylor, Nick3.26600
Hadwin, Adam3.17400
Steele, Brendan2.96900
Wallace, Matt2.96900
Ghim, Doug2.96600
Stenson, Henrik2.87000
Bradley, Keegan2.77000
Wise, Aaron2.76700
Frittelli, Dylan2.66500
Grace, Branden2.67500
Hoge, Tom2.66500
Gordon, Will2.66500
Putnam, Andrew2.67100
Willett, Danny2.56700
Varner III, Harold2.46800
Long, Adam2.36400
Van Rooyen, Erik2.16900
Poston, JT2.17000
Huh, John1.96600
Weisberger, Bernd1.86800
Dahmen, Joel1.76800
Glover, Lucas1.66600
Hoag, Bo1.56200
Malnati, Peter1.56500
Percy, Cameron1.56500
Reavie, Chez1.56700
Straka, Sepp1.56400
Redman, Doc1.36400
Sabbatini, Rory1.36300
MacIntyre, Robert1.37100
Lowry, Shane1.37600
Knox, Russell1.36700
Westwood, Lee1.17200
Kang, Sung1.16300
Stricker, Steve1.06400
Lee, KH0.96300
Lee, Danny0.86100
Shelton, Robby0.86300
Schwartzel, Char0.76300
Hickok, Kramer0.76000
McCarthy, Denny0.66200
Laird, Martin0.66400
Stuard, Brian0.66200
Dufner, Jason0.66200
Ventura, Kristoffer0.66200
Lahiri, Anirban0.66100
Every, Matt0.66100
Cook, Austin0.56300
Swafford, Hudson0.56300
McDowell, Graeme0.56400
Gay, Brian0.46200
Hubbard, Mark0.46200
Janewattananond, Jazz0.36100
Duncan, Tyler0.36000
Snedecker, Brandt0.26400
Pan, CT0.16200
ALL OTHERS0.0

Last week I had Cameron Champ as my out in left play, I had Finau and Reed, Hovland, and way too much Rahm, it was a break-even week last week.

These are my picks for this week:

Top Tier: Victor Hovland
Mid Tier: Fitzpatrick,Reed, Sungjae IM
Low Tier: Conners, Hoffman, Munoz
Out in Left Play: Doug Ghim
Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: Martin Laird *       
* very risky

We do appreciate you taking the time to review our projections, please spend a moment to peruse the articles by Sia, Patrick, Antonio, and check out the new podcast by Stix and his partner in semi crime Spencer, who have the intel on betting lines, favorites, top10s, 20s and more. Don’t forget on Tuesday nights there is the live stream with Michael Rasile, who some people, smart people, beautiful people have named the best face for radio, with Sia, master of the Secret Weapon, and Joel (another 50K?, throw it down to the accountant chained in my basement) aka draft master flex, who is now in the running to become the next Jeopardy host, eat your heart out Ken Jennings. Do not forget, tonight, that’s right, tonight only, it’s the history-making, longevity breaking, viagra taking… Sia and his Secret Weapon!!! Available exclusively in Discord later tonight courtesy of Win Daily Sports! Don’t miss this pick!

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money.

SicilyKid/ Steven

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PGA

Arnold Palmer Invitational: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

We’re in the middle of the Florida swing and the PGA Tour will make its next stop in Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.  This week a few of the big-ticket golfers are taking the week off but it’s still a talent-laden field and you’ll want to focus upon great ball strikers, particularly good APP players.   We will have a ton of content coming up on our site, and of course, tonight on the Win Daily PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST (airing on our Win Daily Sports YouTube channel and @windailysports on Twitter).  Now let’s get to the Arnold Palmer Invitational:  Initial Picks.

Viktor Hovland (10600) – There’s really no need for me to convince you on this one.  He’s so good in the ball striking department and the short game is there.  At some point he’s not going to have a great tournament and it’s up to you to decide if you’re willing to take that chance this week.

Tyrrell Hatton (10000) – I liked him last week and I like him again this week.  His ball striking is elite and if it wasn’t for his ARG game last week he would have been in much better shape.  Reigning champ at the API.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (9800) – There’s nothing about his game that makes him elite, but I think Fitz will do just fine in this field due to his great all around game and his ability to play in potential tough conditions.  Last two finishes here he’s been 9th and 2nd.

Sungjae Im (9700) – Plays great in Florida as evidenced by his great track record here (back to back 3rd place finishes).  His APP numbers haven’t been elite since the start of the calendar year but I expect that to bounce back this week.  He should gain in all other SG categories with ease this week.

Paul Casey (9100) – A great ball striker who also rates out well with the long irons.  Has played well overseas this year and has played well on the PGA Tour thus far.  Casey is never a sure thing but he’s probably a bit underpriced here.

Talor Gooch (7900) – He can be hit or miss and maybe priced a bit high but I like his comfort level here with a 13th and 26th the only two times he’s played here.  As of late he’s picked up the iron play and recent form has also been good with the long iron play, which he’ll need here.

Charley Hoffman (7600) – I almost never write this guy up, but back in the day he was always good for some 1st Round Leader pizza money.  Earlier this year he had a troubling stretch with a couple WDs and an MC, but since that time has made two cuts in a row including a 7th at AT&T.  What really strikes me are his finishing positions at API (13th, MC, 14th and 2nd over the last four years).

Emiliano Grillo (7400) – We’re looking for great ball strikers who are also good with the APP game in particular and Grillo fits the mold.  His putting is a huge question mark but I’m willing to look past it for Grillo (I’ll note that I’ll likely roster some Byeong Hun An as well who is also a great ball striker with poor putting).

Henrik Norlander (7200) – Ownership should be relatively low thanks to an MC last time out and an MC the only time he played API.  Norlander has flashed some upside this year and I think is undervalued by at least a few hundred DK dollars.  The ball striking is typically very good and he’ll need the putter to be decent to pay off.

Luke List (7200) – Coming off an MC at Genesis, but has great course history with 10th, 7th and 17th the only three times here.  His ball striking this calendar year has been very good and has plenty of upside.

Matthew NeSmith (6900) – An MC his only time at the API but the ball striking has been excellent and I think NeSmith is undervalued at this price.

Cameron Percy (6500) – This recent Win Daily Secret Weapon had a nice week in Puerto Rico last week and continues to strike the ball well.  His metrics on APP are particularly good and I think he’s steady enough to make the cut and slowly climb the middle section of the leaderboard over the weekend.

Tom Hoge (6500) – A handful of missed cuts earlier this year had things looking bleak for Hoge, but he’s made two cuts in a row and that included a 12th at the AT&T.  He’s played here twice and finished well inside the Top 30 both times.  Pretty decent floor considering the price range.

Thanks for reading my Arnold Palmer Invitational: Initial Picks. See you tonight on the PGA Livestream and if you’re not already signed up for one of our memberships get to windailysports.com and sign up!  See you tonight and see you in Discord.

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PGA

WGC-Workday Championship: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

The PGA Tour travels to the opposite coast this week for the first of four Florida events.  We have an interesting twist as this is the first time the Concession course will be played on the PGA Tour, and therefore, we have no course history to utilize (other than a few in this field who played this course in the NCAA championship 6 years ago).  We will focus on the typical SG metrics and recent form and we will perhaps take a few more chances than normal at this no-cut event.  Stay tuned for much more content from the Win Daily team, including our Win Daily Sports PGA Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST.  Now let’s get to the Initial Picks for the WGC-Workday Championship.

Jon Rahm (11100) – He was excellent last week and really made a charge on Sunday but wasn’t enough to catch the leaders.  One of the best in the world T2G and in good form.

Xander Shaufffele (10800) – I’m hoping ownership is down on Xander as a result of his underwhelming finish at Riviera and associated lack of coverage.  His 15th place finish was mostly a result of being bad OTT on Thursday and bad with the putter on Sunday.  Other than that, the ball striking and game was great and Xander is very close to winning a tournament.

Bryson DeChambeau (9900) – Bryson had some rust on Thursday at Riviera, but he rounded into form on Friday.  He was atrocious with the putter on Friday losing almost 3 strokes, but he was best in the field T2G that very same day.  I see the putter regressing to the mean and I’m hoping the T2G stays true.

Tyrrell Hatton (9600) – He’s simply a great golfer.  We haven’t seen him on the PGA Tour this year, but he’s been racking up solid finishes overseas (6th at The Saudi International, 22nd at Omega Dubai Desert Classic and 1st at Abu Dhabi).  Great with the irons and the all-around game is there.

Viktor Hovland (9400) – Don’t be shocked if this guy is considered one of the best in the world at some point within the next couple of years.  His ball striking is impeccable and his short game continues to improve and this is great value at this price.

Joaquin Niemann (8100) – We are looking for upside, particularly in no-cut events, and Niemann flashed that upside for the first two rounds at Riviera and has also flashed it this year with 2nd place finishes at the Sony and the Sentry.  Don’t worry about his blow up round of a 78 last Saturday as that’s going to happen in brutal wind conditions to the best of golfers.

Will Zalatoris (8000) – This is a very good price for a great ball striker who has been consistently finishing well in stacked fields.  This week he doesn’t need to worry about lack of course history/experience because almost nobody in this field has played here.

Ryan Palmer (7200) – Another misprice for Mr. Palmer that you probably need to take advantage of.  Palmer’s betting odds are 55 to 1, which is shorter than almost everyone in the 8k range.  What does that mean?  It means the sportsbooks value him as a golfer in the upper 8k class.  Grab the value.

Abraham Ancer (6800) – Missed cut last week but keep in mind he had zero prep time as he was stuck in Texas.  Ancer’s recent form is pretty solid with the exception of a bad round here or there.  The one bad round won’t hurt him too much in this no-cut event and he has enough upside to justify at this price.

Rasmus Hojgaard (6700) – Probably will be a nice pivot off of some of the other more popular European golfers in this range.  Hojgaard has been very solid lately with 6th, 9th and 25th place finish in his last three tournaments overseas.  He’s also flashed the ability to go low (final round of Saudi International he shot a 62).

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – stay tuned to Discord.

See everyone tonight on the Livestream and don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Apple podcasts and Spotify and to our YouTube page. 

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PGA

The Genesis Invitational: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

We remain in California for the Genesis Invitational at Riviera.  This course presents the best field we’ve seen so far in 2020 and presents the most difficult test we’ve seen as well.  You will want to focus on golfers that have a good all-around game as ARG and PUTT definitely come into play a bit more than usual.  This is a relatively long track so being long off the tee helps, but is not critical to success.  More on the course and the field on tonight’s Win Daily PGA Livestream.  See you tonight at 8:00 EST. As usual, we have a ton of content coming from the rest of the team. Let’s get started with The Genesis Invitational: Initial Picks.

Dustin Johnson (11300) – He’s the best in the world.  His ball striking and short game are excellent.  His price point isn’t cost prohibitive.  Not sure we need much additional analysis on this one.  If I had to pick a guy I like next best in the elite range, it’s likely Bryson.

Xander Schauffele (9900) – Much like Cantlay (below) this guy checks all the boxes and picks up strokes in every SG category.  Even better he’s coming dangerously close to being one of the best golfers in the world with near wins (2nd, 2nd and 5th over his last three tournaments).  Solid value at this price.

Patrick Cantlay (9600) – Gains strokes in every category in a pretty significant way and has been very good lately with a 3rd, 2nd and 13th over his last three.  He has a great track record as you might expect. 

Viktor Hovland (8700) – No history here but his recent history is excellent and the ball striking metrics jump off the page.  Add to that he has significantly improved the short game and Hovland carries a ton of value.

Max Homa (8200) – A very fair price for a guy who has turned his game around and made 5 cuts in a row, which culminated in a gritty 7th place finish last week at the AT&T.  Add to that a 5th place finish last year and 37th the year prior and you likely have a safe floor with plenty of upside.

Cameron Davis (7500) – Gains strokes in every category and he’s long off the tee.  He’s only played here once (2019) and it was a missed cut.  But he finished 14th last week after having a bad Day 1 and made three cuts prior to that.  Plenty of upside at this price. 

James Hahn (7500) – A Cali guy who appears to feel right at home at this venue with a 13th, 14th and 28th place finish in his last three efforts here.  I’d call Hahn a high risk/high reward play as he is coming off an MC, 10th and MC in his last three (we, of course, had him as the SW during the 10th place finish).  With that said, he is striking the ball well and is gaining strokes in all categories. 

Luke List (7300) – A long hitter who has been pretty great with the ball striking lately.  He’s finished within the top 30 over his last three tournaments.  Interestingly, he’s also finished within the top 30 over his last three efforts on this track. 

Kyoung-Hoon Lee (7100) – Brought to my attention on Monday’s The First Cut Podcast with Rick Gehman and Greg Ducharme (and yours truly).  KH Lee has made 4 out of 5 cuts including a 2nd place finish at the Waste Management.  Further, he finished 13th and 25th his only two times on this track.

Matthew NeSmith (6900) – His APP game has been too good to ignore.  He’s not the best course fit but if the APP numbers stay true (gained 1.88 strokes on APP per round at the AT&T), then he hits value easily.

Michael Thompson (6700) – Nothing flashy about this guy, but I’ve been on him for a while now and he continues to make cuts (4 out of his last 5).  He also finished 7th here in 2019. 

Brian Stuard (6400) – No such thing as a “safe option” in this range, but if you need to dip down this low you may as well take a guy that has made 4 of his last 5 cuts and made two cuts in a row at Riviera, including a Top 25.  Stuard is gaining strokes in every category other than OTT so he’s a bargain. 

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/under 5% owned) – Currently 29-3 and featured Cameron Percy and James Hahn the last two weeks.  Get into Discord Wednesday night for the Secret Weapon.

Don’t forget to join us tonight on the Win Daily YouTube channel or @windailysports on Twitter.  Feel free to jump in the chat and ask any questions or submit any lineups that you want our live commentary on.  See you tonight.

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