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Golden State Warriors

NBA Ghost’s Gems for Western Conference Round 1

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

The NBA Playoffs are officially under way! Yes, the Play-In tournament got us kicked off a few days ago. But the conventional one through eight matchups began last night. The Western Conference matchups are much more even than those in the Eastern Conference. Moreover, many NBA Championship contenders are featured in this one.

With the NBA Play-In tournament now over, here is the updated bracket for the Western Conference:

The fantasy sports landscape shifts drastically throughout the NBA Playoffs. Rotations are much more condensed, while teams are quick to shorten their bench. As previously mentioned, rotation notes, player breakdowns, analytical advantages, and key x-factors are all discussed. The x-factor will not be the best player on the team, but rather, someone that will provide an edge in both fantasy sports and on the court in real time.

Be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Denver Nuggets (1) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)

Denver Nuggets (-500 to win series)

Introduction

After an opening round loss to the eventual NBA Champions last season, the Nuggets stormed out of the gate this year and never looked back. Nikola Jokic averaged a near triple-double while leading his team to the #1 seed in a competitive Western Conference. One can only hope the injury woes of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are behind them for what should be a deep playoff run.

Matchup

Despite the acquisition of Rudy Gobert, Minnesota still ranked 17th in points allowed in the paint per game and a disastrous 27th in rebounding. Thus, the matchup bodes well for MVP candidate, Nikola Jokic. Elsewhere, Jamal Murray will look to get the best of veteran Mike Conley on the perimeter, while the best statistical matchup is for Michael Porter Jr., who will see a ton of Anthony Edwards.

Rotation

The back-to-back NBA MVP will be a staple point in this offensive flow. Moreover, Jamal Murray looks healthy and is poised for a big role on what hopes to be a lengthy playoff run. Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon flank the wings, while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope plays the role of spot-up shooter from behind the arc. Elsewhere, Bruce Brown is a versatile player in this rotation, while Christian Braun, Zeke Nnaji, and veterans Reggie Jackson and Jeff Green round out the rotation.

X-Factor

Aside from the duo of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon is the x-factor to this series for Denver. A matchup looms against Karl-Anthony Towns, and other wings in smaller Minnesota lineups, such as Kyle Anderson and Taurean Prince. However, Gordon will have to get his offensive game going early and often. Jokic will surely be double-teamed on nearly every possession, and there is only so many shots for Jamal Murray to take. Gordon’s versatility outweighs the inconsistency of Michael Porter Jr., making the former of more impact than the latter.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+375 to win series)

Introduction

The Minnesota overhaul was a disaster. Rudy Gobert was acquired in the offseason for far too many assets, and it simply has not worked out. This offense is stagnant, relying on Anthony Edwards in isolation far too often. Meanwhile, the defensive unit has been mediocre at best. Despite making it through Oklahoma City in the Play-In, there is little to like about this roster heading into the opening round.

Matchup

Despite making it through the Play-In tournament, things don’t get any easier for Minnesota. The Nuggets have a good roster when everyone is healthy, and this team looks to be in its best form after the regular season they had. However, there is an opportunity to Minnesota to take advantage on the perimeter. The issue is trusting the likes of Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns regularly, let alone the rest of this rotation.

Rotation

Expect to see as much Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns as you ever have in these NBA Playoffs. Moreover, Rudy Gobert will anchor the paint in a matchup versus Nikola Jokic and Mike Conley will run point. Kyle Anderson and Taurean Prince will play impactful minutes, whether in the starting lineup or off the bench. Nickeil Alexander-Walker earned a starting spot in the final game of the Play-In, while Jordan McLaughlin will check in off the bench, only if necessary.

X-Factor

Both Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley will be of extreme importance to Minnesota in this series. However, the latter gets the nod as the x-factor with his role on both ends of the floor. Not only will Conley have to keep Jamal Murray at bay, but he will need to attack on the other side. Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards will lead the team in usage rate, but Conley needs to be efficient in his time on the court if the Timberwolves stand a chance.

Memphis Grizzlies (2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (7)

Memphis Grizzlies (-140 to win series)

Introduction

After a disappointing exit to the eventual NBA Champions last season, Memphis is back on the big stage. It does not come without concern though, as Steven Adams missing the postseason is a huge hole to fill. However, Jaren Jackson Jr. is a Defensive Player of the Year finalist and needs to prove he can handle a matchup against Anthony Davis in this series. Ja Morant leads the charge for a team that will certainly face adversity from the get-go.

Matchup

A matchup versus the Lakers gives Ja Morant the best chance to take over a series. While Austin Reaves is a quality defender, the Lakers finished the season 29th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers and 28th versus crafty finishers at the position. However, the true mismatch lies in the paint. Memphis takes a huge hit on the glass and in interior defense with Steven Adams ruled out. Thus, hoping that Jaren Jackson Jr. is not only up to the task, but that he’s able to stay out of foul trouble versus Anthony Davis is more than enough cause for concern.

Rotation

Ja Morant and Desmond Bane will log a ton of minutes in the backcourt. Flanked by Dillon Brooks and Jaren Jackson Jr., the Grizzlies have a strong core. However, in the absences of both Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke, Jackson Jr. will shift to the ‘5’ at times. Not only will he be forced to guard Anthony Davis, but the former needs to stay out of foul trouble; something he has not proven in his young career. Moreover, Tyus Jones will play a crucial role off the bench, while Luke Kennard and John Konchar pick up a few minutes on the wing. Xavier Tillman will need to step up in the absence of Adams and Clarke, with Santi Aldama being the fallback option.

X-Factor

Just as Ja Morant comes into this series with something to prove, Desmond Bane cannot go unnoticeable for multiple games. There is no doubt that the Lakers will key in on Morant. Thus, Bane needs to be able to not only provide offense, but create his own shots and create for others when he handles the rock. Being able to get open off the ball will be crucial, as Morant will be forced to find his teammates more often than he is used to in this series.

Los Angeles Lakers (+120 to win series)

Introduction

After making it through the Play-In tournament after a single game, the Lakers now turn their attention to the Grizzlies. Outside of Los Angeles fans, most have Memphis winning this series with ease. However, there is a clear path to the Lakers winning this one. By utilizing Anthony Davis as much as possible, the Lakers can wreck havoc for Memphis on the inside. Moreover, LeBron James looks for a fifth NBA Championship, while the front office acquired multiple contributors to a potential run.

Matchup

The key to this matchup will be in the paint. Yes, Memphis has a quality roster along the perimeter, both in their starting unit and off the bench. However, with Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke both nursing injuries, Anthony Davis needs to dominate on the interior and the glass, while LeBron James needs to attack the rim every chance he gets.

Rotation

This Lakers rotation is surprisingly deep thanks to an overhaul at the trade deadline. Alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves will play prominent minutes. Moreover, Jarred Vanderbilt and his defensive ability will earn him significant run. Rounding out the rotation are Dennis Schroder, Rui Hachimura, Malik Beasley, and Tory Brown Jr.

X-Factor

LeBron James and Anthony Davis look to shock the NBA community with a series win over Memphis. However, they will not be able to do it without Austin Reaves containing Ja Morant for multiple games. The breakout Laker will be tasked with guarding Memphis’ primary ball handler and will need to force him into bad shots. Moreover, Reaves’ offensive ability through attacking the likes of Tyus Jones, Desmond Bane, and Dillon Brooks on the other side of the ball makes him the key to a series win.

Sacramento Kings (3) vs. Golden State Warriors (6)

Sacramento Kings (+225 to win series)

Introduction

Light the Beam! Sacramento will be making their first NBA Playoffs appearances since 2005-2006. After trading Tyrese Haliburton for Domantas Sabonis, many had the Kings listed for a top pick in the upcoming draft lottery. However, this group had other plans. Behind career years from De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, this will be the most fun series of the entire opening round.

Matchup

The Warriors put up a lot of points, but they give up a ton as well. This is right up Sacramento’s alley, as they have done that all season long. However, the key to this series will be the first two games. Golden State struggled mightily on the road, and there may not be a louder building than Sacramento in the entire Playoffs. Look for De’Aaron Fox to score and create on every possession, as the Warriors ranked 24th to primary ball handlers and 27th to crafty finishers at the guard position.

Rotation

The core of De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and Harrison Barnes will see the most minutes. However, after that, things could get interesting. Yes, Kevin Huerter and Keegan Murray will continue to start for the majority, if not every game this series. However, with the Warriors potentially going back to their roots of a smaller closeout lineup, look for Malik Monk to see a ton of run in this one. Moreover, Davion Mitchell gives Sacramento a quality on-ball defender, while Trey Lyles will be the first big man off the bench.

X-Factor

While this may be breaking the rules of the section, De’Aaron Fox is simply too important not to highlight. Yes, Domantas Sabonis was outstanding this season and led the NBA in both rebounds per game and total rebounds. However, it is Fox that will have to keep pace with Steph Curry on the other side. Following a career year where he was still snubbed from the All-Star game, Fox is looking to make waves in his first career playoff appearance and has the biggest stage of any guard in the opening round.

Golden State Warriors (-275 to win series)

Introduction

In an eventful season, the core of the dynasty remains. This was certainly a tighter race in the Western Conference than anticipated, and the Warriors were a mere two losses from being in the Play-In. Nonetheless, this is a team ready to make waves and has a clear path to yet another NBA Finals.

Matchup

While Sacramento had a career year in all facets of the season, their offense was simply outstanding. Not only did they finish first in offensive rating, but they posted a league-best 120.7 points per game. However, with an elite offense came a poor defense. The Kings finished 26th in defensive rating and struggled mightily on the wings and versus primary ball handlers. Domantas Sabonis is a beast in the paint and on the glass, but this is a pristine matchup for Curry and company.

Rotation

The Splash Bros will log a ton of minutes in this backcourt. However, with Andrew Wiggins returning in time for the NBA Playoffs since missing two months of action, others will need to step up. Donte DiVincenzo will get minutes on the wing, and Jordan Poole will get a ton of run off the bench as well when Thompson shifts to the wing. Moreover, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney will be tasked with a matchup versus Domantas Sabonis, while Gary Payton II and Jonathan Kuminga round out the rotation in sparing minutes.

X-Factor

Poised for another run at a Championship, the Warriors may have the toughest road than they ever have. The true x-factor in this series will be Jordan Poole. After winning Sixth Man of the Year last season, Poole averaged two more points per game this year while appearing in all 82 games for the Warriors. However, in a series versus the Kings, Poole will have to be able to be an effective secondary scorer if Golden State wants to keep pace. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson will lead the charge, but if Poole cannot outduel Malik Monk on the other side, it will be a quick out for the reigning NBA Champions.

Phoenix Suns (4) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (5)

Phoenix Suns (-500 to win series)

Introduction

Expectations need to be held in check for this Suns roster. Yes, they acquired Kevin Durant. However, not only has their starting unit played few minutes together, but their bench is not up to standards of others. Luckily, it is not a bench that wins the NBA Playoffs, but the starting unit. The core of Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Deandre Ayton is one of, if not the best of remaining teams. However, this roster is a single injury or bad matchup away from falling short of an NBA Championship.

Matchup

Despite having two of the best defenders of this generation on the same roster, Los Angeles has not shown the ability to win tight games for a full series. Largely due to the absence of one, if not both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, the Clippers finished 17th in defensive rating this season. Moreover, they continued to struggle versus primary ball handlers, finishing 28th in the NBA. While Kawhi Leonard is capable of shutting down Kevin Durant, there is simply too much firepower on this Suns roster in the absence of Paul George.

Rotation

The core of Paul, Booker, Durant, and Ayton will soak up the majority of minutes for Phoenix. Moreover, Josh Okogie will take over the defensive responsibility left by Mikal Bridges in his departure to Brooklyn. The bench will be shallow, but look for Landry Shamet, Torrey Craig, and Cameron Payne (when healthy) to be first off the bench. Lastly, Terrence Ross and TJ Warren are options on the wing, while one of Bismack Biyombo or Jock Landale can sub in for Deandre Ayton in a limited capacity.

X-Factor

This offense is littered with elite options. Kevin Durant joins an established core of Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton. However, it is the savvy veteran running point that will need to be an x-factor in this series. Firstly, the matchup is as good as it gets. For years, the Clippers have struggled to guard primary ball handlers. Not only is CP3 one of the best to do it during his career, but of all time. Secondly, this offense had little time to familiarize itself before getting to the biggest stage of an NBA season. Thus, Paul can provide both stability and production with the ball in his hands by finding open teammates and limiting isolation possessions down the stretch.

Los Angeles Clippers (+375 to win series)

Introduction

In what was deemed a contender for years to come since Kawhi Leonard and Paul George joined forces, this roster has failed to live up to expectations. The main reason for their downfall has been injuries. After missing the entire season last year, Kawhi appeared in a mere 52 games for Los Angeles. Moreover, he has not played more than 60 games since 2016-2017. Paul George has been no better, appearing in 56 or less games in every year since he arrived to Los Angeles. This team has a strong foundation, but concerns loom.

Matchup

Phoenix is not the same team as they were for the majority of the regular season. Not only are both Devin Booker and Chris Paul healthy, but the acquisition of Kevin Durant makes this a roster capable of winning an NBA Championship. However, Kawhi Leonard has been one of the best playoff performers of this generation. Moreover, the Suns are vulnerable in the paint with Deandre Ayton and a combination of Bismack Biyombo and Jock Landale off the bench. Lastly, the Clippers need to attack individual matchups versus Booker, Craig, and bench players to spark offensive opportunities.

Rotation

Coach Ty Lue is notorious for rotation changes. Since leaving Cleveland, where he won an NBA Championship with LeBron James in 2016, Lue has become a much better game manager. Kawhi Leonard will have to log as many minutes as his body can handle in the absence of Paul George. However, the surrounding cast will have to step up. Lue has veteran options in Nic Batum, Marcus Morris Sr., and Robert Covington. Both Mason Plumlee and Ivica Zubac will get to man the paint. Meanwhile, Norman Powell and Terance Mann will see increased roles with George out for the series. However, both Eric Gordon and Bones Hyland give Lue more options at the ‘2’. Lastly, Russell Westbrook will have to be his best if Los Angeles stands a chance at winning a game, let alone the series.

X-Factor

In the absence of Paul George, no one is as important to the Clippers as Kawhi Leonard. However, others will need to step up as well. Thus, Norman Powell is the x-factor in this series. While he has an abysmal matchup, he can score in bunches. Lining up against Kevin Durant is no joke, but Powell has the ability to play well off-ball to get open in a matchup versus Devin Booker. Moreover, Powell averaged 17 points per game off the bench this season. In a starting role, he will have to alleviate some of the pressure off Kawhi.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Mar. 22)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Many key matchups await as the NBA Playoff picture is set to finalize in the upcoming weeks. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks (+2.5)

Golden State Warriors (-2.5)

With the Clippers’ Paul George suffering an injury last night and Phoenix still missing Kevin Durant, the Warriors have their eye on the #4 seed in the Western Conference. This would secure homecourt advantage in their opening NBA Playoffs series. Golden State will need Steph Curry to shoulder the offense on a nightly basis. The future hall-of-famer has has 30 or more points in three of his last four games and is poised to lead once again.

Dallas Mavericks (+2.5)

Considering the Warriors are 2.5-point favorites in this game, it is unlikely that Luka Doncic returns to the lineup tonight after a five-game absence. However, if he does, he instantly becomes one of, if not the top play on the NBA slate. Keep an eye on this injury report.

Atlanta Hawks @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-4.5)

Atlanta Hawks (+4.5)

Another key injury report to monitor, as Dejounte Murray was scratched from last night’s win over Detroit. This could have been precautionary, but if Murray is ruled out once again, then Trae Young will be one of, if not the most popular option on the NBA slate. After dropping 30/3/12 versus a rebuilding Pistons team in only 30 minutes, Young gets another favorable matchup versus a Timberwolves defense that ranks 25th versus opposing primary ball handlers.

Minnesota Timberwolves (-4.5)

Minnesota will be glad to see Karl-Anthony Towns back in the lineup tonight. Surely he will have a minutes restriction and is too risky for this NBA slate. However, he last suited up in November, giving this team a much needed spark in his return. Anthony Edwards was in a walking boot just a few days ago and has since missed the team’s last two games. However, he is listed as questionable to play. This is a key injury report to monitor, as it will offer plenty of value, should Edwards be ruled out once again.

Honorable Mentions:

Portland Trail Blazers @ Utah Jazz (-4.5)
Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Lakers (+1.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Mar. 17)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

The NBA Playoff race is quickly heating up and many Western Conference teams amidst the battle are in action tonight. While some are missing crucial contributors, others face off against some of the league’s best. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Golden State Warriors @ Atlanta Hawks (-3.5)

Golden State Warriors (+3.5)

Exposure to this game is solely dependent on the availability of Steph Curry. The greatest shooter in NBA history is questionable to play with a wrist injury, but this one tips off at the beginning of the slate. Should he miss this one, both Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole will assume primary offensive responsibility, while Donte DiVincenzo will see extended minutes on the wing. However, should Curry indeed be available, he is a prime position to lead the slate in scoring. Averaging 35.6/5.6/5.2 on 58.2% shooting over his last five games, Curry is heating up before yet another playoff run in a history career. In the absence of Draymond Green, look for Kevon Looney and Jonathan Kuminga to see extended run.

Atlanta Hawks (-3.5)

Should Curry miss this game, a slot opens up for another key contributor at the top of the pricing grid. Thus, Trae Young is the fallback option to pair with Jordan Poole and/or Klay Thompson, rather than Clint Capela paired with Steph Curry as a game stack. Over his last five games, Young has scored 25 points or more in each appearance. Moreover, he has averaged 31.4/3.2/9.2 on 54.9% shooting during that span. With Golden State ranked 26th in the NBA against primary ball handlers, Young is in a terrific spot to be atop the scoring leaders of the night.

Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers (-5.5)

Dallas Mavericks (+5.5)

In the absence of Luka Doncic, the Mavericks have quickly fallen down the standings in the Western Conference. In a key matchup versus the Lakers, all eyes will be on the potential return of Kyrie Irving, who has missed the last three games with a foot injury. Meanwhile, should the availability news of Kyrie come early enough that he is ruled out, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jaden Hardy, and Christian Wood will carry this offense, but their positions on the pricing grid on this NBA slate make the Mavericks offense a fade, only if Kyrie is ruled out.

Los Angeles Lakers (-5.5)

While most will flock to Joel Embiid versus the Hornets, this is a tremendous game environment for Anthony Davis. While expectations were low in the Lakers’ last game considering the absences of of both he and LeBron James, Los Angeles still managed to lose to the lowly Rockets. Thus, AD will have to be scoring 30 or more points every night for the Lakers to make a playoff run. To say the Mavericks lack interior defense in an understatement; they allow over 50 points in the paint per game, while being last in the league in points scored in the paint per game.

Honorable Mentions:

New Orleans Pelicans @ Houston Rockets (+5.5)
Boston Celtics @ Portland Trail Blazers (+4.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Mar. 9)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

With six games on the NBA schedule tonight, there are multiple matchups that will result in offensive fireworks. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Houston Rockets @ Indiana Pacers (-9.5)

Houston Rockets (+9.5)

This game will be a track meet with no defense being played. Houston will be missing Kevin Porter Jr. (thigh) tonight, meaning both Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun will see more offensive looks. The two carry usage rates of 28.4% and 21.6%, respectively, but see increases to 32.8% and 22.4% with Porter Jr. off the court. Moreover, Indiana ranks 26th in the NBA in defensive rating, while being 8th in pace. While the quartet of Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, KJ Martin, and Jae’Sean Tate are viable as well, both Green and/or Sengun make for more intriguing plays in tournaments.

Indiana Pacers (-9.5)

At the top of the pricing grid, most will flock to the next point guard named rather than Tyrese Haliburton. However, with Houston ranking 29th in the NBA in defensive rating and versus primary ball handlers, Haliburton has a tremendous ceiling. Over his last three games, Haliburton has scored 29 or more points in each appearance, with 30 or more in two of three games. Moreover, he has averaged 33.7/4.3/11 on 59.3% shooting during that span.

Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies (+2.5)

Golden State Warriors (-2.5)

No one is of more importance at the top of the pricing grid than Steph Curry. As alluded to above, he will be the most popular option in that spot, and rightfully so. The greatest shooter in NBA history is fresh off a 40/6/7 performance, where he made ten three-pointers on sixteen attempts. Moreover, he has taken a total of 43 shots in two appearances since returning from injury, 29 of which came from behind the arc. Memphis remains without Ja Morant, and Tyus Jones is simply no match for Curry’s combination of on-ball and off-ball wizardry. Additionally, Memphis ranks 22nd in the NBA in three-pointers allowed per game, setting the stage for Curry to lead the slate in scoring. Should you start with both he and Haliburton, paired with one of Green or Sengun, this lineup construction allows for ample room for other surrounding pieces.

Memphis Grizzlies (+2.5)

Both Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones figure to be less popular than they have been on other NBA slates recently. The two have climbed the ranks of the pricing grid, making them intriguing tournament plays in an elite game environment. In the absence of Ja Morant, the two have combined for 39 points per game, while having off-setting minutes. While the Warriors struggle with on-ball defense, it is Bane’s minutes in that position that is the more enticing spot of the two players mentioned.

Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks (-12.5)

Brooklyn Nets (+12.5)

The Nets figure to have one of, if not the most popular rotation on this NBA slate. On the front end of a back-to-back, Brooklyn will be without Spencer Dinwiddie, Nicolas Claxton, Cam Johnson, Ben Simmons, and Royce O’Neale. While most will flock to Mikal Bridges, it is Cam Thomas that will seize the most opportunity on the offensive side of the ball. While he takes over as the primary ball handler, Thomas has been electric in this spot before. At the beginning of February, Thomas strung together three straight 40-point efforts while taking 25 shots per night during that stretch.

Milwaukee Bucks (-12.5)

Simply put, there is no need to get exposure to the Bucks’ offense if both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday return to the lineup. The Nets will be no match for Giannis on the inside, but this game will instantly lack competitiveness. However, should both miss a second straight game, the trio of Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis, and Jevon Carter are intriguing options. Wait to see the final injury report before taking any decisions.

Honorable Mentions:

Charlotte Hornets @ Detroit Pistons (+3.5)
Utah Jazz @ Orlando Magic (-3.5)
New York Knicks @ Sacramento Kings (-3.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Mar. 7)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

After last night’s NBA slate was turned on its head with many stars ruled out, expect more of the same tonight. Key players are already on their respective team’s injury reports, while others will surely join them. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks (-6.5)

Utah Jazz (+6.5)

This NBA slate will have plenty of value but the Jazz rotation will go overlooked. In the absence of Collin Sexton, there is amply opportunity for both Kris Dunn and Ochai Agbaji to thrive. Yes, Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson will lead the charge on offense, but the two will get plenty of action in a thin rotation. Since signing a 10-day contract, Kris Dunn has been phenomenal. The former Providence standout has averaged 13/3.4/4.2 on 54.9% shooting in five appearances, while being the first man off the bench. Moreover, a standout 3-and-D wings in this year’s NBA Draft, Agbaji is finally getting the opportunity he deserves. Over his last seven appearances, he has averaged 28.4 minutes per game. Moreover, this has resulted in a 11.7/2.4/1.6 scoring line, where he has scored in double digits in four of seven appearances.

Dallas Mavericks (-6.5)

While Luka Doncic does not have to be the one taking the final shot anymore, this backcourt duo is awfully enticing on this NBA slate. Make no mistake about it, Doncic has the clear ceiling between the two, given his edge in rebounding and passing the ball. However, Kyrie Irving has quietly been dominant in his short stint with the Mavericks. Over his nine appearances with the team, he ranks third in usage rate at 27.5% and second in scoring with 27.4 points per game. Moreover, he has averaged 27.4/5/7 on a ridiculous 52/41/92 shooting split, which places him in the elusive 50/40/90 club. This matchup is also great for Irving, as Utah struggles mightily off the ball, ranking 25th in net defensive rating versus secondary ball handlers.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers (-2.5)

Memphis Grizzlies (+2.5)

Despite the return of Dillon Brooks after serving his one-game suspension, the Grizzlies are missing many key players tonight. Ja Morant remains out of the lineup, as do both Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke in the frontcourt. While he no longer at the very bottom of the pricing grid, no NBA lineup construction should begin without Tyus Jones. Coming off a 25/3/12 game against the Clippers, Jones has been phenomenal in ten starts this season. During those appearances, he has averaged 19.4/3.5/8.1 on 53.1% shooting. The Lakers rank 28th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers, setting the stage for Jones to be a focal point of lineups once again.

Los Angeles Lakers (-2.5)

There is a lot of uncertainty at the top of the pricing grid. However, this NBA slate adds a second candidate, in addition to Luka Doncic, at the very top: Anthony Davis. While his rebounding numbers have been taking a dip for multiple years in a row, AD is still an elite scorer and interior defender. Against a Memphis frontcourt that will be without both Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke, Davis will be able to dominate the paint on both ends of the floor. Coming off back-to-back 30-point efforts, where he averaged 38.5/6.5/4 across 35 minutes per game, Davis will lead the charge once again for the Lakers.

Honorable Mentions:

Washington Wizards @ Detroit Pistons (+6.5)
Brooklyn Nets @ Houston Rockets (+7.5)
Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder (+4.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Feb. 28)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

While two of the league’s best are missing in action for their respective teams, many elite matchups are on the NBA schedule tonight. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies (-8.5)

Los Angeles Lakers (+8.5)

With LeBron James set to miss the next few weeks of the season, the Lakers will need all the help they can get from their newcomers. However, they will also have to do so without D’Angelo Russell tonight, who is doubtful to play because of an ankle injury. Dennis Schroder will start in the event that Russell is ruled out, while Malik Beasley and Jared Vanderbilt will have more offensive opportunity. Rui Hachimura will consequently dominate usage off the bench, but nothing is possible without Anthony Davis leading the charge. With LeBron off the court, Davis has posted a remarkable 1.49 fantasy points per minute through a 30.3% usage rate. With Steven Adams still missing from the Grizzlies lineup, Davis will dominate the paint on both ends of the court tonight.

Memphis Grizzlies (-8.5)

Despite two mediocre performances following the NBA All-Star break, this is a terrific spot for Ja Morant. On the season, Morant leads the team with a 35% usage rate, averaging 27/5.9/8.1 on 46.3% shooting. Moreover, the Lakers currently rank 28th versus primary ball handlers, struggling mightily with their on-ball defense. Should Morant alter lineup construction too much, Desmond Bane makes for a viable pivot in tournaments.

Sacramento Kings @ Oklahoma City Thunder (+2.5)

Sacramento Kings (-2.5)

With the Thunder ranking 3rd in the NBA in pace, this is an elite game environment. Moreover, the Kings currently have the best offensive rating the league has ever seen. While this is tough to compare to prior teams considering the way the game has changed over the years, it’s an impressive feat nonetheless. Tonight, Domantas Sabonis gets the best matchup of the Kings offense. The Thunder not only rank 24th versus crafty centers, but also sit 26th in rebounding percentage. Sabonis not only leads the league in total rebounds, but in rebounds per game as well.

Oklahoma City Thunder (+2.5)

In the absence of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, all eyes will be on Josh Giddey. Likely to be one of the most popular players in the mid range of the pricing grid on this NBA slate, Giddey has a terrific combination of ceiling and floor. With his fellow backcourt teammate off the floor, Giddey sees his usage rate increase from 24.5% to 25.6%, while his fantasy points per minute actually decrease from 1.24 to 1.10. Lu Dort and Isaiah Joe make for viable plays as well, but having no exposure to this Thunder offense is a fine approach as well.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Golden State Warriors (-4.5)

Portland Trail Blazers (+4.5)

Arguably the best scorer in the NBA this season, Damian Lillard has simply been unreal. Not only is he fresh off a 71-point performance, but he has scored 30 or more points in 11 of his last 13 appearances. Moreover, he has averaged 40.7/5.2/7.1 on 53% shooting during that span, taking nearly 13 shots from behind the arc per night and hitting at a 43.8% clip. It’s a lofty commitment to make on the pricing grid, but with the Warriors ranked 26th versus primary ball handlers, it’s never too late to jump on the Dame Time train.

Golden State Warriors (-4.5)

While Portland defends the three-ball at a decent rate, Klay Thompson has been lights out lately. Not only has he dropped 32 and 42 points, respectively, in his last two games, but he has made 18 three-pointers across those appearances. Moreover, Jordan Poole will continue to lead this offense and be overlooked on a large NBA slate considering he has struggled coming out of the All-Star break. Should Draymond Green suit up for this one, he makes for an interesting play in tournaments versus a depleted Portland frontcourt, while Kevon Looney is the preferable target between the two.

Honorable Mentions:

Denver Nuggets @ Houston Rockets (+10.5)
Indiana Pacers @ Dallas Mavericks (-6.5)
San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz (-9.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Feb. 24)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Despite NBA teams having a week off following the All-Star break, there are still numerous players missing in action. While some focus on their playoff push, others have cause for concern. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

New York Knicks @ Washington Wizards (-1.5)

New York Knicks (+1.5)

One of the biggest snubs of this year’s NBA All-Star game was Jalen Brunson. A questionable signing turned into a perfect situation for the Knicks, as they have found their point guard. In ten games before the break, Brunson scored 20 or more points in each one of those appearances. Moreover, he averaged 31.5/4.2/6 on 55.4% shooting during that stretch. The backcourt is riddled with underappreciated talent between Brunson and Immanuel Quickley, while the Knicks suddenly have solid wing depth as well in RJ Barrett and Josh Hart. The latter has been overly efficient since arriving from Portland, shooting 62.1% from the field and 64.3% from behind the arc in three appearances with his new team. While he lacks upside due to limited volume, he is someone that will likely be overplayed on this NBA slate.

Washington Wizards (-1.5)

Bradley Beal did not practice for two consecutive days coming out of the break and is unlikely to play tonight. Thus, Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma will shoulder the load on offense. The former plays against the organization that drafted him, while Kuzma is surprisingly still in town following the trade deadline. However, Washington is still holding a spot in the Play-In tournament right now. While the duo are in awkward positions on the pricing grid, the latter has more upside. Kuzma does not see drastic increases in his production with Beal off the court, but does take more shots and handles the rock more frequently. A reluctancy to commit to such a bleak situation would be understandable, so look to Deni Avdija or Delon Wright here.

Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5)

Miami Heat (+1.5)

While this is far from an elite game environment, these two teams will be playing on tight rotations. Both organizations have built their rosters around defensive ability, and the two both have top 5 defenses in the NBA. However, Miami is desperate for wins and will need to tighten their rotation down the stretch. In the absence of Kyle Lowry (knee), Tyler Herro will be a key contributor in the backcourt. Moreover, Jimmy Butler will have ample room to dominate this halfcourt offense in the absence of one of, if not the best defender in the league: Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5)

As alluded to above, Giannis Antetokounmpo (wrist) injured himself in the last game before the NBA All-Star break and is doubtful to play tonight. Thus, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton, and Bobby Portis will see an increase in offensive looks. There is no clear advantage in individual matchups between the four, as the Heat bolster one of the best defensive units in the league. However, Khris Middleton will look to regain his form before the playoffs begin, leaving him with the most upside based on sheer volume. Before the break, Middleton scored in double digits across his last six appearances and eight of his last nine. During that stretch, he averaged 16.1/5/3.6 on 48.7% shooting, while taking over 12 field goal attempts per night.

Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors (-9.5)

Houston Rockets (+9.5)

In the absence of both Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green, there are a ton of shots available to the remaining Rockets. Alperen Sengun is the key benefactor in this situation, seeing his usage rate increase from 22.1% to 26.4%, with his fantasy points per minute rising from 1.21 to 1.25. However, there are others to consider as well. The trio of KJ Martin, Jabari Smith Jr., and Tari Eason make for intriguing plays in tournaments, with Smith Jr. being the least preferable of the three. Look for the trio of Josh Christopher, TyTy Washington Jr., and Daishen Nix to pick up the bulk of the workload in a depleted backcourt.

Golden State Warriors (-9.5)

The Warriors are still missing Andrew Wiggins and Steph Curry for this game. Thus, against the worst defense in the NBA, their remaining offensive players are in a tremendous spot. Both Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson fell on the pricing grid, leaving more room for upside here. However, as stated in yesterday’s breakdown, these are the two you want to focus on. Moreover, Kevon Looney and Draymond Green will be key in shutting down Alperen Sengun. No need to reinvent the wheel here: the key contributors are known and are excellent plays on this slate.

Honorable Mentions:

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks (-1.5)
Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Clippers (-6.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Feb. 23)

Richard Masana 2 years ago

written by Richard Masana

After a long break following All-Star weekend, the NBA is back. Many elite matchups kickoff the last third of the season tonight, with teams making a playoff push and others jockeying for seeding. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5)

Memphis Grizzlies (+4.5)

There are many elite duos in games on this NBA slate. Beginning with one of the most competitive game environments, Ja Morant faces a tough task versus a stout Philadelphia perimeter defense. By shifting Tyrese Maxey to the bench, James Harden is no longer guarding primary ball handlers and Philly has the sixth-best defense in the league because of it. Desmond Bane gets the friendly matchup versus Harden, but his position on the pricing grid has risen quite a bit. Thus, look to the first combo big off the bench for the Grizzlies in Brandon Clarke. With Steven Adams (knee) still out, Xavier Tillman likely draws another start, alongside Jaren Jackson Jr. With the two being foul prone and facing a foul-drawing artist in Joel Embiid, Clarke will be relied upon heavily off the bench. Moreover, Dillon Brooks draws a friendly matchup in the starting unit but the volume is worrisome.

Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5)

Joel Embiid was mentioned above and he is one of many marquee studs on this NBA slate. However, with a matchup versus Xavier Tillman looming, he has tremendous upside. Embiid leads the team with a 36.9% usage rate this season, good for third in the league. Moreover, he has averaged 33.1/10.2/4.1 on 53.7% shooting. James Harden makes for a good target in tournaments, possessing both a safe floor and a high ceiling. Before the break, Harden registered four double-doubles and recorded 20 or more points in four of his last five games. During that span, he averaged 24.4/4.6/10.2 on 48.1% shooting.

Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers (-4.5)

Golden State Warriors (+4.5)

Coming out of the NBA All-Star break, many players have shifted upward on the pricing grid. One of the most affected teams are the Warriors, who are reflective of Steph Curry (leg) being out. However, the duo of Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson have slate-breaking upside, in balanced lineups, in a matchup versus the Lakers. Los Angeles gets LeBron James and Anthony Davis back together in a new-look offense, but this team still ranks second in pace and 18th in defensive rating. In the absence of Andrew Wiggins (personal), Donte DiVincenzo likely draws the start, but it’s Poole and Thompson who will combine for over 40 field goal attempts tonight.

Los Angeles Lakers (-4.5)

Similarly to how the Warriors offense is in a good spot, the Lakers are in just as good of one. While Los Angeles ranks second in the NBA in pace, it is the Warriors who currently lead the league. This one will play in transition, which is perfect for the duo of Anthony Davis and LeBron James. Moreover, newcomers D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, and Jarred Vanderbilt round out a solidified starting unit. The preference is to allocate the core of lineups to this game environment, but there are solid value pieces here as well if you choose to prioritize the game below.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings (-5.5)

Portland Trail Blazers (+5.5)

If the core of lineups will not be centered around the Lakers versus Warriors, it should absolutely be around this game environment. The Blazers are currently on the outside looking in when it comes to the NBA Play-In tournament, and no one is arguably as important to their team as Damian Lillard is right now. Fresh off winning the three-point contest last weekend, Dame left his mark before the break. Over his 12 games, Lillard has posted 30 or more points in ten appearances. Moreover, he has averaged a whopping 38.2/5.2/7.2 on 52.3% shooting during that span. In the absence of Anfernee Simons, Lillard has the potential to lead this slate in scoring based on his volume alone.

Sacramento Kings (-5.5)

While Jusuf Nurkic is a poor defender, Drew Eubanks is arguably worse when you watch this Trail Blazers defensive unit. Thus, as anticipated, Domantas Sabonis is an excellent pivot off Joel Embiid tonight in what could be the best game environment on the NBA slate. Portland not only ranks 26th in the league versus crafty centers, but they also rank 20th in points allowed in the paint and 17th in rebounding. On the season, Sabonis leads the NBA in both total rebounds and rebounds per game. Moreover, he has averaged 18.8/12.3/6.9 on 61.1% shooting this year.

Honorable Mentions:

Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers (+7.5)
Denver Nuggets @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-2.5)
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Utah Jazz (-2.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Feb. 13)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Following the conclusion of the NFL season last night, all eyes turn to the NBA. After one of the most entertaining trade deadlines in recent memory, the league has a few games left before its All-Star break. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Atlanta Hawks @ Charlotte Hornets (+5.5)

Atlanta Hawks (-5.5)

Make no mistake about it, this NBA slate is riddled with elite options at the guard position. However, two of them are in this game. Trae Young and the Hawks are in an explosive position on offense tonight. The face of the Atlanta franchise has been on fire lately, averaging 26.7/3.9/12 on 47.7% shooting over his last seven games. Moreover, the Hornets provide a great game environment for the primary ball handler. Charlotte ranks 25th in defensive rating and 7th in pace, giving Young a ton of upside. If going elsewhere at the guard position, Clint Capela makes for a tremendous target in the mid range of the pricing grid.

Charlotte Hornets (+5.5)

Similarly to Young, LaMelo Ball is in a fantastic position on this NBA slate. Despite the Hornets losing seven straight games, Ball continues to impress. He has averaged 22.9/8.3/8.1 on 40.7% shooting during that span, leading the team with a 29% usage rate. Moreover, the Hawks have a formidable on-ball defense in Dejounte Murray to counteract Ball, but the latter is excellent in finding open teammates. One benefactor will be Mark Williams, who has taken over the starting center role following the departure of Mason Plumlee. In two starts since then, Williams has averaged 8.5/8.5/1 on 58.3% shooting, amassing two steals and blocks per night.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Portland Trail Blazers (-2.5)

Los Angeles Lakers (+2.5)

The Lakers are in one of, if not the best game environment on the NBA slate. However, with the status of LeBron James unknown, there is a ton of uncertainty here. Should James play, he immediately becomes a contender to lead the slate in scoring. Yet, should he miss a third straight game with an ankle injury, both Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroder are in good spots. Davis has struggled over his last three games, but will be relied upon to shoulder the load versus an injured Trail Blazers frontcourt. Moreover, Portland ranks 27th in defensive rating and 26th versus centers. Schroder has looked good alongside newly acquired D’Angelo Russell, as the latter has shown the ability to play off the ball more so than the former. Over his last two appearances with LeBron out, Schroder has averaged 25.5/2.5/7.5 on 58.6% shooting.

Portland Trail Blazers (-2.5)

Two elite guards were mentioned in the previous game, but Damian Lillard is in one of, if not the best spot of the three. Over his last ten games, Dame Time has scored 30 or more points in eight appearances. Moreover, he has averaged 37.9/4.6/7.5 on 52.6% shooting during that span, including 41.3% from behind the arc on nearly 11 attempts per night. The Lakers rank 29th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers, while also ranking 20th in three-pointers allowed per night. The last time these two teams met, Portland took a 25-point lead into halftime, only to lose the game by nine. Counting Lillard out of the list of players to potentially lead this slate in scoring is a mistake.

Washington Wizards @ Golden State Warriors (-3.5)

Washington Wizards (+3.5)

Exposure to the Wizards offense hinges on the availability of Kyle Kuzma. Should he be ruled out, Bradley Beal is a great target in the mid range of the pricing grid. Over his last four games, Beal has averaged 26/4.5/6 on 58.3% shooting. Moreover, he leads the team in both usage rate and assists per game during that span. Since taking over as primary ball handler in the absence of Kuzma, Beal has much more room on offense to find his own shot, and create for others. With Beal also taking over six three-pointers per night over his last four appearances, he is in a position to take advantage of a Warriors defensive unit that ranks 22nd in the NBA in three-pointers allowed per night.

Golden State Warriors (-3.5)

Their positions on the pricing grid have not moved despite Steph Curry missing the team’s last three games, so there is no reason to avoid the backcourt duo of Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson. In three games since Curry went down with an injury, Poole and Thompson have combined for over 58 points per game, while taking 25 field goal attempts per night. Moreover, the two lead the team in usage rate during that span. This is far from the best game environment on the NBA slate, but it certainly is appealing enough for the sharpshooting Poole and Thompson.

Honorable Mentions:

Utah Jazz @ Indiana Pacers (-1.5)
New Orleans Pelicans @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-2.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Feb. 8)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Tonight’s NBA schedule is filled with intrigue. Multiple teams have players that contending teams covet, while others are missing some of their best players. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

San Antonio Spurs @ Toronto Raptors (-9.5)

San Antonio Spurs (+9.5)

Not only do the Spurs have many players that contending teams desperately want, but their current roster is also riddled with injuries. The trio of Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, and Jeremy Sochan are at risk of missing this game, with the latter being listed as doubtful. Moreover, Jones has missed the team’s last two games, while Devin Vassell is also out after having knee surgery. This injury report will be key to monitor throughout the day, as the Spurs will be one of the primary sources of value plays for this NBA slate.

Toronto Raptors (-9.5)

The most intriguing team heading into the NBA trade deadline is north of the border. The Raptors have had a disappointing season, to say the least. While Pascal Siakam is posting better numbers than his All-NBA seasons of 2020 and 2022, the team has struggled mightily. OG Anunoby remains out with a wrist injury and is one of, if not the most coveted player on the trading block across the league. Moreover, Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. join Siakam in a long list of core players potentially on the move. Should the Raptors sit players out, be sure to adjust accordingly.

Golden State Warriors @ Portland Trail Blazers (-4.5)

Golden State Warriors (+4.5)

It will be a lather, rinse, and repeat scenario with the Warriors offense until Steph Curry makes his return. On Monday, both Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson were highlighted as core plays, and the backcourt tandem came through. Poole and Thompson combined for 53 points, with Thompson knocking down 12 of 16 shot attempts from behind the arc. Portland struggles mightily versus primary ball handlers, ranking 24th in the NBA, making Poole the preferred target of the two. Moreover, Draymond Green gets a friendly matchup on the inside versus Drew Eubanks, with Jusuf Nurkic ruled out with a calf injury.

Portland Trail Blazers (-4.5)

With Damian Lillard being close to the likes of Jayson Tatum and Joel Embiid on the pricing grid, the former will fly under the radar. Thus, Dame Time makes for the perfect play for this NBA slate in tournaments. The Warriors interior and wing defenses flourish thanks to Thompson and Green, but they lack perimeter defense versus primary ball handlers. They currently sit 26th in the NBA versus opposing lead guards, with Poole being a far worse defender than Curry. Lillard has posted 30 or more points in six of his last eight games, averaging 38.5/4.3/6.9 on 54.1% shooting.

Honorable Mentions:

Sacramento Kings @ Houston Rockets (+6.5)
Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers (OTB)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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