DFS & Sports Betting Tools, Exclusive Content, and Expert Chat
GET STARTED TODAY
 
DFS & Sports Betting Tools, Exclusive Content, and Expert Chat
GET STARTED TODAY
 
Home / Gold Subscription / Page 2
Tag:

Gold Subscription

Welcome back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. Let’s keep this monster season rolling.

*** I ALWAYS WAIT FOR LINEUPS TO GO LIVE ***

A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages

MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.

Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.

MLBMA Implied Team Totals Betting Key

  • F5inal – Each individual team’s score after the first five innings. Generally, a difference of one full run is the initial indicator for a high percentage ML play.
  • F5 ITT – First Five Implied Team Totals. It is the sum of the two finals and can be applied to F5 Over/Under betting.
  • F5 ML – First Five Inning Money Line Bet
  • F5 RL – First Five Inning Run Line Bet. -0.5 for Favorites and +0.5 for Underdogs.
  • FG ML – Full Game Money Line Bet
  • FG RL – Full Game Run Line Bet. -1.5 for Favorites and +1.5 for Underdogs.
  • TT – Team Total. Vegas posted line.
  • O/u – Over/under. Vegas posted line for F5.
  • dO/u – The difference between the MLBMA algo’s total, and the Vegas line.
  • Bets that satisfy the algorithm’s parameters are marked in green and labeled as the highest percentage plays. Not every flagged play ends up being bet.

Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. This also makes them extremely versatile across betting formats. The same way we use a difference in implied totals to determine a winner, we can use totals to bet the Over/Under. Any Implied Team Total above 3.0 for a team is considered high, and below 2.6 is considered low. Therefore, a combined F5 total (F5ITT) over 6.0 would be a candidate for an Over bet and a combined F5 total under 5.2 would be a flag for the under.

Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.

MLBMA Algo Results w/Implied Team Totals, 8/20

NOTE: CONSIDER ALWAYS MOVING (-) RL PLAYS TO ML FOR PARLAYS

TODAY IS AT THE STANDARD 1.0% MAX RISK

SCROLL DOWN FOR DAILY BETTING STRATEGIES

https://windailysports.com/sign-up-for-a-free-membership-and-win-daily-at-dfs-sports-2/?aff=mlbmovingavg

 

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three heavy favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. If I have three picks of mixed intermediate value I will bet .07R on all three and then 0.31R on each leg of an AB, AC, BC Round Robin.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. I either pair by length/type (F5/FG/OU), or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

https://windailysports.com/betting-2/

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Let’s get it.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Welcome back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. Let’s keep this monster season rolling.

*** I ALWAYS WAIT FOR LINEUPS TO GO LIVE ***

A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages

MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.

Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.

MLBMA Implied Team Totals Betting Key

  • F5inal – Each individual team’s score after the first five innings. Generally, a difference of one full run is the initial indicator for a high percentage ML play.
  • F5 ITT – First Five Implied Team Totals. It is the sum of the two finals and can be applied to F5 Over/Under betting.
  • F5 ML – First Five Inning Money Line Bet
  • F5 RL – First Five Inning Run Line Bet. -0.5 for Favorites and +0.5 for Underdogs.
  • FG ML – Full Game Money Line Bet
  • FG RL – Full Game Run Line Bet. -1.5 for Favorites and +1.5 for Underdogs.
  • TT – Team Total. Vegas posted line.
  • O/u – Over/under. Vegas posted line for F5.
  • dO/u – The difference between the MLBMA algo’s total, and the Vegas line.
  • Bets that satisfy the algorithm’s parameters are marked in green and labeled as the highest percentage plays. Not every flagged play ends up being bet.

Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. This also makes them extremely versatile across betting formats. The same way we use a difference in implied totals to determine a winner, we can use totals to bet the Over/Under. Any Implied Team Total above 3.0 for a team is considered high, and below 2.6 is considered low. Therefore, a combined F5 total (F5ITT) over 6.0 would be a candidate for an Over bet and a combined F5 total under 5.2 would be a flag for the under.

Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.

MLBMA Algo Results w/Implied Team Totals, 8/19

NOTE: CONSIDER ALWAYS MOVING (-) RL PLAYS TO ML FOR PARLAYS

TODAY IS AT THE STANDARD 1.0% MAX RISK AFTER BEING AWAY

  • WAS F5ML (-125)
  • CIN F5ML (-170)
  • SEA F5ML (+160)

I’m not going live until lineups are out, but I think I’ll either play SEA straight and pair the other two or go with a three team round robin. I want to play with the numbers on payouts before I decide

SCROLL DOWN FOR DAILY BETTING STRATEGIES

https://windailysports.com/sign-up-for-a-free-membership-and-win-daily-at-dfs-sports-2/?aff=mlbmovingavg

 

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three heavy favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. If I have three picks of mixed intermediate value I will bet .07R on all three and then 0.31R on each leg of an AB, AC, BC Round Robin.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. I either pair by length (F5/FG), or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

https://windailysports.com/betting-2/

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Let’s get it.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Welcome back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. Let’s keep this monster season rolling.

A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages

MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.

Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.

MLBMA Implied Team Totals Betting Key

  • F5inal – Each individual team’s score after the first five innings. Generally, a difference of one full run is the initial indicator for a high percentage ML play.
  • F5 ITT – First Five Implied Team Totals. It is the sum of the two finals and can be applied to F5 Over/Under betting.
  • F5 ML – First Five Inning Money Line Bet
  • F5 RL – First Five Inning Run Line Bet. -0.5 for Favorites and +0.5 for Underdogs.
  • FG ML – Full Game Money Line Bet
  • FG RL – Full Game Run Line Bet. -1.5 for Favorites and +1.5 for Underdogs.
  • Bets that satisfy the algorithm’s parameters are marked in green and labeled as the highest percentage plays. Not every flagged play ends up being bet.

Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. This also makes them extremely versatile across betting formats. The same way we use a difference in implied totals to determine a winner, we can use totals to bet the Over/Under. Any Implied Team Total above 3.0 for a team is considered high, and below 2.6 is considered low. Therefore, a combined F5 total (F5ITT) over 6.0 would be a candidate for an Over bet and a combined F5 total under 5.2 would be a flag for the under.

Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.

MLBMA Algo Results w/Implied Team Totals, 8/16

NOTE: CONSIDER ALWAYS MOVING (-) RL PLAYS TO ML FOR PARLAYS

TODAY IS AT AN ACCELERATED 1.5% RISK AFTER BIG WIN YESTERDAY

  • CIN F5ML (-150)
  • WAS F5ML (-165)
  • TB F5RL -0.5 (-185)
  • NYM F5RL -0.5 (-125)

SCROLL DOWN FOR DAILY BETTING STRATEGIES

https://windailysports.com/sign-up-for-a-free-membership-and-win-daily-at-dfs-sports-2/?aff=mlbmovingavg

 

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. I either pair by length (F5/FG), or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

https://windailysports.com/betting-2/

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Let’s get it.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Welcome you back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. Let’s keep this monster season rolling and get this money.

A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages

MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.

Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.

MLBMA Implied Team Totals Betting Key

  • Final – Each individual team’s score after the first five innings. Generally, a difference of one full run is the initial indicator for a high percentage ML play.
  • F5 ITT – First Five Implied Team Totals. It is the sum of the two finals and can be applied to F5 Over/Under betting.
  • F5 ML – First Five Inning Money Line Bet
  • F5 RL – First Five Inning Run Line Bet. -0.5 for Favorites and +0.5 for Underdogs.
  • FG ML – Full Game Money Line Bet
  • FG RL – Full Game Run Line Bet. -1.5 for Favorites and +1.5 for Underdogs.
  • Bets that satisfy the algorithm’s parameters are marked in green and labeled as the highest percentage plays. Not every flagged play ends up being bet.

Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. This also makes them extremely versatile across betting formats. The same way we use a difference in implied totals to determine a winner, we can use totals to bet the Over/Under. Any Implied Team Total above 3.0 for a team is considered high, and below 2.6 is considered low. Therefore, a combined F5 total (F5ITT) over 6.0 would be a candidate for an Over bet and a combined F5 total under 5.2 would be a flag for the under.

Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.

MLBMA Algo Results w/Implied Team Totals, 8/15

NOTE: CONSIDER ALWAYS MOVING (-) RL PLAYS TO ML FOR PARLAYS

TODAY IS AT THE STANDARD 1% RISK

  • CIN F5ML (-180)
  • MIN F5ML (-165)
  • Parlayed at +149

SCROLL DOWN FOR STRATEGY

With only two strong plays, we can either pair the F5MLs together, or take the -0.5 F5RL for each separately. I’m going to get exposure to these two games in different combinations, F5 and FG.

https://windailysports.com/sign-up-for-a-free-membership-and-win-daily-at-dfs-sports-2/?aff=mlbmovingavg

 

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. I either pair by length (F5/FG), or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

https://windailysports.com/betting-2/

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Let’s get it.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Welcome you back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. Let’s keep this monster season rolling and get this money.

A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages

MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.

Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.

MLBMA Implied Team Totals Betting Key

  • Final – Each individual team’s score after the first five innings. Generally, a difference of one full run is the initial indicator for a high percentage ML play.
  • F5 ITT – First Five Implied Team Totals. It is the sum of the two finals and can be applied to F5 Over/Under betting.
  • F5 ML – First Five Inning Money Line Bet
  • F5 RL – First Five Inning Run Line Bet. -0.5 for Favorites and +0.5 for Underdogs.
  • FG ML – Full Game Money Line Bet
  • FG RL – Full Game Run Line Bet. -1.5 for Favorites and +1.5 for Underdogs.
  • Bets that satisfy the algorithm’s parameters are marked in green and labeled as the highest percentage plays. Not every flagged play ends up being bet.

Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. This also makes them extremely versatile across betting formats. The same way we use a difference in implied totals to determine a winner, we can use totals to bet the Over/Under. Any Implied Team Total above 3.0 for a team is considered high, and below 2.6 is considered low. Therefore, a combined F5 total (F5ITT) over 6.0 would be a candidate for an Over bet and a combined F5 total under 5.2 would be a flag for the under.

Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.

MLBMA Algo Results w/Implied Team Totals, 8/13

NOTE: CONSIDER ALWAYS MOVING (-) RL PLAYS TO ML FOR PARLAYS

TODAY IS AT THE STANDARD 1% RISK AFTER RELATIVE OFF NIGHT 8/12

SCROLL DOWN FOR STRATEGY

Today I have 4 plays, so there’s two preferred paths for me tonight. I’m either going to split them up into pairs (winners & overs), or go for the Round Robin. That’s four sets of three plays, where 3 of 4 nets a nice percentage profit & all four is a touchdown.

I split the Cubs because I know some player’s don’t have F5 capabilities, and wanted to clarify that I do like them for nine innings having the distinct bullpen advantage over PHI.

https://windailysports.com/sign-up-for-a-free-membership-and-win-daily-at-dfs-sports-2/?aff=mlbmovingavg

 

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. I either pair by length (F5/FG), or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

https://windailysports.com/betting-2/

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Let’s get it.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Welcome you back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. Let’s keep this monster season rolling and get this money.

A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages

MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.

Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.

MLBMA Implied Team Totals Betting Key

  • Final – Each individual team’s score after the first five innings. Generally, a difference of one full run is the initial indicator for a high percentage ML play.
  • F5 ITT – First Five Implied Team Totals. It is the sum of the two finals and can be applied to F5 Over/Under betting.
  • F5 ML – First Five Inning Money Line Bet
  • F5 RL – First Five Inning Run Line Bet. -0.5 for Favorites and +0.5 for Underdogs.
  • FG ML – Full Game Money Line Bet
  • FG RL – Full Game Run Line Bet. -1.5 for Favorites and +1.5 for Underdogs.
  • Bets that satisfy the algorithm’s parameters are marked in green and labeled as the highest percentage plays. Not every flagged play ends up being bet.

Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. This also makes them extremely versatile across betting formats. The same way we use a difference in implied totals to determine a winner, we can use totals to bet the Over/Under. Any Implied Team Total above 3.0 for a team is considered high, and below 2.6 is considered low. Therefore, a combined F5 total (F5ITT) over 6.0 would be a candidate for an Over bet and a combined F5 total under 5.2 would be a flag for the under.

Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.

MLBMA Algo Results w/Implied Team Totals, 8/12

*** I am not in love with this slate, but since I took the time to run the algo & all the filters I decided to share. If you notice all of the plays are nine inning plays, which means they failed somewhere along the F5 algorithm. I have been overly vocal in my distrust of bullpens this year. I pride myself on full transparency, and today I am not even risking 1%. Remember, that guideline is a maximum, not a minimum.

(That being said, $20 pays $475 if we sweep the board for all my Action Jacksons out there.)

I’ll wait for tomorrow’s slate to get back to serious action

NOTE: CONSIDER ALWAYS MOVING (-) RL PLAYS TO ML FOR PARLAYS

TODAY IS AT THE STANDARD 1% RISK AFTER LOSING NIGHT 8/11

SCROLL DOWN FOR STRATEGY

https://windailysports.com/sign-up-for-a-free-membership-and-win-daily-at-dfs-sports-2/?aff=mlbmovingavg

 

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. I either pair by length (F5/FG), or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

https://windailysports.com/betting-2/

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Let’s get it.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Welcome you back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. Let’s keep this monster season rolling and get this money.

A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages

MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.

Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.

MLBMA Implied Team Totals Betting Key

  • Final – Each individual team’s score after the first five innings. Generally, a difference of one full run is the initial indicator for a high percentage ML play.
  • F5 ITT – First Five Implied Team Totals. It is the sum of the two finals and can be applied to F5 Over/Under betting.
  • F5 ML – First Five Inning Money Line Bet
  • F5 RL – First Five Inning Run Line Bet. -0.5 for Favorites and +0.5 for Underdogs.
  • FG ML – Full Game Money Line Bet
  • FG RL – Full Game Run Line Bet. -1.5 for Favorites and +1.5 for Underdogs.
  • Bets that satisfy the algorithm’s parameters are marked in green and labeled as the highest percentage plays. Not every flagged play ends up being bet.

Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. This also makes them extremely versatile across betting formats. The same way we use a difference in implied totals to determine a winner, we can use totals to bet the Over/Under. Any Implied Team Total above 3.0 for a team is considered high, and below 2.6 is considered low. Therefore, a combined F5 total (F5ITT) over 6.0 would be a candidate for an Over bet and a combined F5 total under 5.2 would be a flag for the under.

Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.

MLBMA Algo Results w/Implied Team Totals, 8/11

  • NYY/TOR O11 (-105)
  • ATL F5RL -0.5 (-140)
  • PIT/STL F5u5 (-120)
  • CIN ML (-145)
  • CHW FGRL+1.5 (-135)

NOTE: CONSIDER ALWAYS MOVING (-) RL PLAYS TO ML FOR PARLAYS

TODAY IS AT THE ACCELERATED 1.5% RISK AFTER MONSTER NIGHT 8/8

SCROLL DOWN FOR STRATEGY

https://windailysports.com/sign-up-for-a-free-membership-and-win-daily-at-dfs-sports-2/?aff=mlbmovingavg

 

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. I either pair by length (F5/FG), or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

https://windailysports.com/betting-2/

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Let’s get it.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Welcome back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. I couldn’t be more satisfied with the results of the inaugural season launch of the MLBMA algo thus far. I really appreciate the support, and hope your season has been nearly as profitable as mine.

A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages

MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.

Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.

MLBMA Implied Team Totals Betting Key

  • Final – Each individual team’s score after the first five innings. Generally, a difference of one full run is the initial indicator for a high percentage play.
  • F5 ITT – First Five Implied Team Totals. It is the sum of the two finals and can be applied to F5 Over/Under betting.
  • F5 ML – First Five Inning Money Line Bet
  • F5 RL – First Five Inning Run Line Bet. -0.5 for Favorites and +0.5 for Underdogs.
  • FG ML – Full Game Money Line Bet
  • FG RL – Full Game Run Line Bet. -1.5 for Favorites and +1.5 for Underdogs.
  • Bets that satisfy the algorithm’s parameters are marked in green and labeled as the highest percentage plays. Not every flagged play ends up being bet.

Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. This also makes them extremely versatile across betting formats. The same way we use a difference in implied totals to determine a winner, we can use totals to bet the Over/Under. Any Implied Team Total above 3.0 for a team is considered high, and below 2.6 is considered low. Therefore, a combined F5 total (F5ITT) over 6.0 would be a candidate for an Over bet and a combined F5 total under 5.2 would be a flag for the under.

Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.

MLBMA F5 Algo Results w/Implied Team Totals, 8/2

https://windailysports.com/sign-up-for-a-free-membership-and-win-daily-at-dfs-sports-2/?aff=mlbmovingavg

MLBMA Picks for 8/2:

  • NYM F5ML (-135)
  • CIN F5ML (+145)
  • ARI F5ML (-130)
  • CLE F5RL -0.5 (-150)
  • TEX F5RL -0.5 (-170)
  • MIN F5RL -0.5 (-170)

NOTE: CONSIDER ALWAYS MOVING RL PLAYS TO ML FOR PARLAYS

TODAY IS AT THE STANDARD 1% RISK

I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

As always there are several paths to playing here with strong plays at decent odds. The conservative player plays all of these straight (0.16R x 6), with a min bet (.04R) on the six team lotto parlay. R=1% of personal stack. I haven’t gone live yet for the record.

The path I will likely take tonight, since there are 3 MLs and 3 RLs, I may pack into two sets of 3 picks and run separate round robins. USE THE STRATEGY THAT BEST FITS YOUR OWN RISK TOLERANCE, STACK AND EXPECTATIONS.

General Betting Strategy

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have three favorite picks, I play a small Tier 1 ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

https://windailysports.com/betting-2/

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Let’s get it.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

    Our Company

    At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.

    ©2024 WIN DAILY®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

    This site is 100% for entertainment purposes only and does not involve real money betting. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800 GAMBLER. This service is intended for adult users only.
    -
    00:00
    00:00
    Update Required Flash plugin
    -
    00:00
    00:00