There are good plays and then there are bad plays. What we’re shooting for at Jacob’s Above Average Plays is above average plays. Here is what we have for you today.
Take #537 Milwaukee -9 vs Memphis (8:00 pm, Friday, December 13th, 2019 FSSE) Wow, the Bucks are good. Giannis is more than just an above-average player, he is generational NBA Demigod leading a great two-way team that is dominating the NBA like Golden State was a couple of seasons ago. The Bucks have an average win rate of 13.4 PPG and on the road, they’re winning by an average 11.1 PPG. They only give up 107.8 PPG overall while the offense is putting up over 120 points and it’s clear that this team is a bully. They are also 22-3 straight-up (SU) and 13-12 against the spread (ATS) but are 16-1 SU over the last 17 that is just crazy. The scores of their last six games are as followed.
127-112 W, 110-101 W, 119-91 W, 127-103 W, 132-88 W, 137-96 W They’re above average scoring in that time scoring 125.3 PPG, winning by an average of 26.8 points. I don’t think Memphis has anywhere near the offensive firepower to keep up and they don’t have a player that can slow down Giannis. That means they’ll have to double him which leaves Middleton and Bledsoe available to go off. When you play good teams like this and you’re bad, things tend not to go well. The Grizzlies are 3-7 SU over the last 10 including 0-4 in home games. Lay the points but lay it early, this line will go up.
Take #541 LA Clippers -5.5 vs Minnesota (Friday, December 13, 2019, ESPN)
I really like the Clippers tonight. They hit the road to face the Timberwolves who have not been good as of late. Minnesota is 2-8 SU over it’s last 10 and that doesn’t bode well when facing a healthy Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Lou Williams. At home, the Timberwolves are averaging 110 points per game (PPG), but they allow 116.64. I’m not sure if you realize what I just said but they lose by an average of 6.5 points at home! Minnesota ranks 30th in the NBA in total rebounds and 27th in the total score. The Clippers on the other hand rank 2nd in the NBA in total rebounds and 6th in the total score. Pretty much the exact opposite of the T-Wolves. The Clippers are also 5-1 ATS the last six games, 12-2 SU their last 14 and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games played in December. Minnesota doesn’t look well and while taking on the Clippers at home this isn’t their get right game. Lay the points with the Clippers.
Take #313 Houston +3 vs Tennessee ( 1:00pm EST, Sunday December 15, 2019 CBS)
I know, I know, Houston got blown out by a bad Denver team, but they really aren’t that bad. They go on the road this week and head into Tennessee to face a Pro-Bowl looking Ryan Tannehill (I can’t believe I just typed that) and a Titans team that has averaged 37.5 PPG the last month which is far above average for how we are used to seeing the Titans play. They are also 6-1 SU / ATS their last seven. Derrick Henry is having a career year and they are really taking teams apart. Houston, on the other hand, are 2-5 ATS their last 7 but they are 4-3 SU. Two of those 4-3 losses include New England and Kansas City, so like I said they aren’t that bad. Their defense has fallen apart ranking 27th in DVOA but I really like their offense and I don’t believe in Tannehill and the Titans’ ability to keep up with a divisional rival in a shootout. They got most of their wins against bad teams and the end of the KC game could have gone either way and sometimes when you play great teams you get lucky. Because I really think they’re a paper tiger, I get Tannehill is playing well above average but doesn’t anyone remember how bad he was in Miami? That wasn’t just bad coaching and no supporting cast. I don’t think he has what it takes to beat a divisional opponent with a quality offense and stud QB. I see a lot of points in this game with it coming down to the end, but I like Houston to cover the spread. Houston ranks 4th on the road in yards per play at 6.07 yards and the Titans rank 30th in passing yards at home, only passing for 191.17 ypg. I’ll take the Texans as a divisional road dog, which has had a great value all year.
Take #315 Seattle -6 vs Carolina (1:00pm EST, Sunday December 15, 2019 FOX)
Carolina has quit playing and it had been clear until last week when they got blown out by the Falcons again losing 40-20 (they lost 29-3 the first time). They’ve now lost six of their last eight and they just don’t look like they want to be out there. That’s not a good thing when taking on a Seattle team that looked terrible last week and are in need of a whipping boy to get right. Russell Wilson is having an MVP year playing far above average from what we have seen the last few seasons from him. Because of that Seattle is looking to make a deep playoff run. Look for Seattle to get right this week and win by 10+. Seattle is 13-3-3 ATS after an SU conference loss. When I say play it, you lay it!