Welcome back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. Let’s keep this monster season rolling.
Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.
NOTE: CONSIDER ALWAYS MOVING (-) RL PLAYS TO ML FOR PARLAYS, AND UNDERDOGS TO +0.5 FOR PARLAYS
TODAY IS AT STANDARD 1.0% RISK
SCROLL DOWN FOR DAILY BETTING STRATEGIES FOR SOME IDEAS ON HOW TO TACKLE TONIGHT’S PLAYS.
I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.
My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.
I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.
Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.
If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. A good place to start is to play any underdogs straight and then either pair by length (F5/FG), or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.
Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?
I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.
MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.
To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.
Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.
A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .
Let’s get it.
Welcome back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. Let’s keep this monster season rolling.
Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.
My tickets tonight will have a combination of these plays below. I may pair the two heavy favorites, and run a Round Robin (AB, AC, BC) with the remaining three although I never go live until lineups lock.
NOTE: CONSIDER ALWAYS MOVING (-) RL PLAYS TO ML FOR PARLAYS, AND UNDERDOGS TO +0.5 FOR PARLAYS
TODAY IS AT STANDARD 1.0% RISK
SCROLL DOWN FOR DAILY BETTING STRATEGIES FOR SOME IDEAS ON HOW TO TACKLE TONIGHT’S PLAYS.
I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.
My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.
I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.
Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.
If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. A good place to start is to play any underdogs straight and then either pair by length (F5/FG), or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.
Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?
I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.
MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.
To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.
Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.
A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .
Let’s get it.
Welcome back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. Let’s keep this monster season rolling.
Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.
My tickets tonight will have a combination of these plays below. I may pair the two heavy favorites, and run a Round Robin (AB, AC, BC) with the remaining three although I never go live until lineups lock.
NOTE: CONSIDER ALWAYS MOVING (-) RL PLAYS TO ML FOR PARLAYS
TODAY IS AT STANDARD 1.0% RISK
SCROLL DOWN FOR DAILY BETTING STRATEGIES FOR SOME IDEAS ON HOW TO TACKLE TONIGHT’S PLAYS.
I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.
My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.
I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.
Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.
If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. A good place to start is to play any underdogs straight and then either pair by length (F5/FG), or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.
Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?
I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.
MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.
To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.
Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.
A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .
Let’s get it.
Welcome back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. Let’s keep this monster season rolling.
*** I ALWAYS WAIT FOR LINEUPS TO GO LIVE ***
MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.
To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.
Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.
Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. This also makes them extremely versatile across betting formats. The same way we use a difference in implied totals to determine a winner, we can use totals to bet the Over/Under. Any Implied Team Total above 3.0 for a team is considered high, and below 2.6 is considered low. Therefore, a combined F5 total (F5ITT) over 6.0 would be a candidate for an Over bet and a combined F5 total under 5.2 would be a flag for the under.
Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.
NOTE: CONSIDER ALWAYS MOVING (-) RL PLAYS TO ML FOR PARLAYS
TODAY IS AT THE STANDARD 1.0% MAX RISK
SCROLL DOWN FOR DAILY BETTING STRATEGIES
I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.
My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.
I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three heavy favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. If I have three picks of mixed intermediate value I will bet .07R on all three and then 0.31R on each leg of an AB, AC, BC Round Robin.
Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.
If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. I either pair by length/type (F5/FG/OU), or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.
Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?
I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.
A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .
Let’s get it.
At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.
