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There are good plays and then there are bad plays. What we’re shooting for at Jacob’s Above Average Plays is above average plays. Here is what we have for you today.

Take #537 Milwaukee -9 vs Memphis (8:00 pm, Friday, December 13th, 2019 FSSE) Wow, the Bucks are good. Giannis is more than just an above-average player, he is generational NBA Demigod leading a great two-way team that is dominating the NBA like Golden State was a couple of seasons ago. The Bucks have an average win rate of 13.4 PPG and on the road, they’re winning by an average 11.1 PPG. They only give up 107.8 PPG overall while the offense is putting up over 120 points and it’s clear that this team is a bully. They are also 22-3 straight-up (SU) and 13-12 against the spread (ATS) but are 16-1 SU over the last 17 that is just crazy. The scores of their last six games are as followed.

127-112 W, 110-101 W, 119-91 W, 127-103 W, 132-88 W, 137-96 W They’re above average scoring in that time scoring 125.3 PPG, winning by an average of 26.8 points. I don’t think Memphis has anywhere near the offensive firepower to keep up and they don’t have a player that can slow down Giannis. That means they’ll have to double him which leaves Middleton and Bledsoe available to go off. When you play good teams like this and you’re bad, things tend not to go well. The Grizzlies are 3-7 SU over the last 10 including 0-4 in home games. Lay the points but lay it early, this line will go up.

Take #541 LA Clippers -5.5 vs Minnesota (Friday, December 13, 2019, ESPN)

I really like the Clippers tonight. They hit the road to face the Timberwolves who have not been good as of late. Minnesota is 2-8 SU over it’s last 10 and that doesn’t bode well when facing a healthy Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Lou Williams.  At home, the Timberwolves are averaging 110 points per game (PPG), but they allow 116.64. I’m not sure if you realize what I just said but they lose by an average of 6.5 points at home! Minnesota ranks 30th in the NBA in total rebounds and 27th in the total score. The Clippers on the other hand rank 2nd in the NBA in total rebounds and 6th in the total score. Pretty much the exact opposite of the T-Wolves. The Clippers are also 5-1 ATS the last six games, 12-2 SU their last 14 and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games played in December. Minnesota doesn’t look well and while taking on the Clippers at home this isn’t their get right game. Lay the points with the Clippers.

Take #313 Houston +3 vs Tennessee ( 1:00pm EST, Sunday December 15, 2019 CBS)

I know, I know, Houston got blown out by a bad Denver team, but they really aren’t that bad. They go on the road this week and head into Tennessee to face a Pro-Bowl looking Ryan Tannehill (I can’t believe I just typed that) and a Titans team that has averaged 37.5 PPG the last month which is far above average for how we are used to seeing the Titans play. They are also 6-1 SU / ATS their last seven. Derrick Henry is having a career year and they are really taking teams apart. Houston, on the other hand, are 2-5 ATS their last 7 but they are 4-3 SU. Two of those 4-3 losses include New England and Kansas City, so like I said they aren’t that bad. Their defense has fallen apart ranking 27th in DVOA but I really like their offense and I don’t believe in Tannehill and the Titans’ ability to keep up with a divisional rival in a shootout. They got most of their wins against bad teams and the end of the KC game could have gone either way and sometimes when you play great teams you get lucky. Because I really think they’re a paper tiger, I get Tannehill is playing well above average but doesn’t anyone remember how bad he was in Miami? That wasn’t just bad coaching and no supporting cast. I don’t think he has what it takes to beat a divisional opponent with a quality offense and stud QB. I see a lot of points in this game with it coming down to the end, but I like Houston to cover the spread. Houston ranks 4th on the road in yards per play at 6.07 yards and the Titans rank 30th in passing yards at home, only passing for 191.17 ypg. I’ll take the Texans as a divisional road dog, which has had a great value all year.

Take #315 Seattle -6 vs Carolina (1:00pm EST, Sunday December 15, 2019 FOX)

Carolina has quit playing and it had been clear until last week when they got blown out by the Falcons again losing 40-20 (they lost 29-3 the first time). They’ve now lost six of their last eight and they just don’t look like they want to be out there. That’s not a good thing when taking on a Seattle team that looked terrible last week and are in need of a whipping boy to get right. Russell Wilson is having an MVP year playing far above average from what we have seen the last few seasons from him. Because of that Seattle is looking to make a deep playoff run. Look for Seattle to get right this week and win by 10+. Seattle is 13-3-3 ATS after an SU conference loss. When I say play it, you lay it!

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Welcome back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. Let’s keep this monster season rolling.

MLBMA Implied Team Totals Betting Key

  • F5inal – Each individual team’s score after the first five innings. (Generally, a difference of one full run is the initial indicator for a high percentage ML play.)
  • F5 ITT – First Five Implied Team Totals. It is the sum of the two finals and can be applied to F5 Over/Under betting.
  • F5 ML – First Five Inning Money Line Bet
  • F5 RL – First Five Inning Run Line Bet. -0.5 for Favorites and +0.5 for Underdogs.
  • FG ML – Full Game Money Line Bet
  • FG RL – Full Game Run Line Bet. -1.5 for Favorites and +1.5 for Underdogs.
  • O/u – Current Vegas line for Over/Under
  • dO/u – The difference between the algo’s total and the Vegas line. (Generally, a difference of one full run is the initial indicator for a high percentage O/u play.)
  • TT – Vegas line for individual Team Totals
  • *Not every flagged play ends up being bet*

Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.

MLBMA Algo Results w/Implied Team Totals, 8/30

NOTE: CONSIDER ALWAYS MOVING (-) RL PLAYS TO ML FOR PARLAYS, AND UNDERDOGS TO +0.5 FOR PARLAYS

TODAY IS AT STANDARD 1.0% RISK

SCROLL DOWN FOR DAILY BETTING STRATEGIES FOR SOME IDEAS ON HOW TO TACKLE TONIGHT’S PLAYS.

https://windailysports.com/sign-up-for-a-free-membership-and-win-daily-at-dfs-sports-2/?aff=mlbmovingavg

 

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. A good place to start is to play any underdogs straight and then either pair by length (F5/FG), or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages

MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.

Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.

https://windailysports.com/betting-2/

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Let’s get it.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Welcome back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. Let’s keep this monster season rolling.

MLBMA Algo Results, 8/29

*** I ALWAYS WAIT FOR LINEUPS TO GO LIVE ***

NOTE: CONSIDER ALWAYS MOVING (-) RL PLAYS TO ML FOR PARLAYS

TODAY IS AT THE STANDARD 1.0% MAX RISK

SCROLL DOWN FOR DAILY BETTING STRATEGIES

A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages

MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards. These include combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.

Our Goal at MLBMA & WinDaily

Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.

Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. This also makes them extremely versatile across betting formats. The same way we use a difference in implied totals to determine a winner, we can use totals to bet the Over/Under. Any Implied Team Total above 3.0 for a team is considered high, and below 2.6 is considered low. Therefore, a combined F5 total (F5ITT) over 6.0 would be a candidate for an Over bet and a combined F5 total under 5.2 would be a flag for the under.

Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.

https://windailysports.com/sign-up-for-a-free-membership-and-win-daily-at-dfs-sports-2/?aff=mlbmovingavg

 

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three heavy favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. If I have three picks of mixed intermediate value I will bet .07R on all three and then 0.31R on each leg of an AB, AC, BC Round Robin.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. I either pair by length/type (F5/FG/OU), or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

https://windailysports.com/betting-2/

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Let’s get it.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Welcome back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. Let’s keep this monster season rolling.

MLBMA Algo Results, 8/28

Technical Perspective

*** I ALWAYS WAIT FOR LINEUPS TO GO LIVE ***

NOTE: CONSIDER ALWAYS MOVING (-) RL PLAYS TO ML FOR PARLAYS

TODAY IS AT THE STANDARD 1.0% MAX RISK

SCROLL DOWN FOR DAILY BETTING STRATEGIES

A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages

MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards. These include combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.

Our Goal at MLBMA & WinDaily

Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.

Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. This also makes them extremely versatile across betting formats. The same way we use a difference in implied totals to determine a winner, we can use totals to bet the Over/Under. Any Implied Team Total above 3.0 for a team is considered high, and below 2.6 is considered low. Therefore, a combined F5 total (F5ITT) over 6.0 would be a candidate for an Over bet and a combined F5 total under 5.2 would be a flag for the under.

Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.

https://windailysports.com/sign-up-for-a-free-membership-and-win-daily-at-dfs-sports-2/?aff=mlbmovingavg

 

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three heavy favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. If I have three picks of mixed intermediate value I will bet .07R on all three and then 0.31R on each leg of an AB, AC, BC Round Robin.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. I either pair by length/type (F5/FG/OU), or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

https://windailysports.com/betting-2/

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Let’s get it.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Welcome back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. Let’s keep this monster season rolling.

MLBMA Implied Team Totals Betting Key

  • F5inal – Each individual team’s score after the first five innings. Generally, a difference of one full run is the initial indicator for a high percentage ML play.
  • F5 ITT – First Five Implied Team Totals. It is the sum of the two finals and can be applied to F5 Over/Under betting.
  • F5 ML – First Five Inning Money Line Bet
  • F5 RL – First Five Inning Run Line Bet. -0.5 for Favorites and +0.5 for Underdogs.
  • FG ML – Full Game Money Line Bet
  • FG RL – Full Game Run Line Bet. -1.5 for Favorites and +1.5 for Underdogs.
  • O/u – Current Vegas line for Over/Under
  • dO/u – The difference between the algo’s total and the Vegas line.
  • *Not every flagged play ends up being bet*

Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.

MLBMA Algo Results w/Implied Team Totals, 8/27

Tonight’s Plays

My tickets tonight will have a combination of these plays below. I may pair the two heavy favorites, and run a Round Robin (AB, AC, BC) with the remaining three although I never go live until lineups lock.

NOTE: CONSIDER ALWAYS MOVING (-) RL PLAYS TO ML FOR PARLAYS, AND UNDERDOGS TO +0.5 FOR PARLAYS

TODAY IS AT STANDARD 1.0% RISK

SCROLL DOWN FOR DAILY BETTING STRATEGIES FOR SOME IDEAS ON HOW TO TACKLE TONIGHT’S PLAYS.

https://windailysports.com/sign-up-for-a-free-membership-and-win-daily-at-dfs-sports-2/?aff=mlbmovingavg

 

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. A good place to start is to play any underdogs straight and then either pair by length (F5/FG), or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages

MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.

Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.

https://windailysports.com/betting-2/

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Let’s get it.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Welcome back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. Let’s keep this monster season rolling.

MLBMA Implied Team Totals Betting Key

  • F5inal – Each individual team’s score after the first five innings. Generally, a difference of one full run is the initial indicator for a high percentage ML play.
  • F5 ITT – First Five Implied Team Totals. It is the sum of the two finals and can be applied to F5 Over/Under betting.
  • F5 ML – First Five Inning Money Line Bet
  • F5 RL – First Five Inning Run Line Bet. -0.5 for Favorites and +0.5 for Underdogs.
  • FG ML – Full Game Money Line Bet
  • FG RL – Full Game Run Line Bet. -1.5 for Favorites and +1.5 for Underdogs.
  • O/u – Current Vegas line for Over/Under
  • dO/u – The difference between the algo’s total and the Vegas line.
  • *Not every flagged play ends up being bet*

Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.

MLBMA Algo Results w/Implied Team Totals, 8/27

Tonight’s Plays

My tickets tonight will have a combination of these plays below. I may pair the two heavy favorites, and run a Round Robin (AB, AC, BC) with the remaining three although I never go live until lineups lock.

NOTE: CONSIDER ALWAYS MOVING (-) RL PLAYS TO ML FOR PARLAYS

TODAY IS AT STANDARD 1.0% RISK

SCROLL DOWN FOR DAILY BETTING STRATEGIES FOR SOME IDEAS ON HOW TO TACKLE TONIGHT’S PLAYS.

https://windailysports.com/sign-up-for-a-free-membership-and-win-daily-at-dfs-sports-2/?aff=mlbmovingavg

 

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. A good place to start is to play any underdogs straight and then either pair by length (F5/FG), or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages

MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.

Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.

https://windailysports.com/betting-2/

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Let’s get it.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Welcome back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. Let’s keep this monster season rolling.

MLBMA Algo Results, 8/25

Brett Anderson, Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Technical Perspective

Custom MLBMA charts found exclusively at https://windailysports.com

We’re looking for continuation of Giants offensive success. We just had a pierce of the longer term moving averages, and today SF is entering their strongest split. If you notice the chart above, you’ll see the Giants have managed to string together several connecting games of extreme success.

*** I ALWAYS WAIT FOR LINEUPS TO GO LIVE ***

NOTE: CONSIDER ALWAYS MOVING (-) RL PLAYS TO ML FOR PARLAYS

TODAY IS AT THE STANDARD 1.0% MAX RISK

SCROLL DOWN FOR DAILY BETTING STRATEGIES

A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages

MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards. These include combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.

Our Goal at MLBMA & WinDaily

Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.

Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. This also makes them extremely versatile across betting formats. The same way we use a difference in implied totals to determine a winner, we can use totals to bet the Over/Under. Any Implied Team Total above 3.0 for a team is considered high, and below 2.6 is considered low. Therefore, a combined F5 total (F5ITT) over 6.0 would be a candidate for an Over bet and a combined F5 total under 5.2 would be a flag for the under.

Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.

https://windailysports.com/sign-up-for-a-free-membership-and-win-daily-at-dfs-sports-2/?aff=mlbmovingavg

 

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three heavy favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. If I have three picks of mixed intermediate value I will bet .07R on all three and then 0.31R on each leg of an AB, AC, BC Round Robin.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. I either pair by length/type (F5/FG/OU), or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

https://windailysports.com/betting-2/

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Let’s get it.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Welcome back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. Let’s keep this monster season rolling.

MLBMA Algo Results, 8/25

Technical Perspective

We’re looking for continuation of Mets offensive success and a pierce of the longer term moving averages entering their strongest split

*** I ALWAYS WAIT FOR LINEUPS TO GO LIVE ***

NOTE: CONSIDER ALWAYS MOVING (-) RL PLAYS TO ML FOR PARLAYS

TODAY IS AT THE STANDARD 1.0% MAX RISK

SCROLL DOWN FOR DAILY BETTING STRATEGIES

A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages

MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards. These include combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.

Our Goal at MLBMA & WinDaily

Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.

Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. This also makes them extremely versatile across betting formats. The same way we use a difference in implied totals to determine a winner, we can use totals to bet the Over/Under. Any Implied Team Total above 3.0 for a team is considered high, and below 2.6 is considered low. Therefore, a combined F5 total (F5ITT) over 6.0 would be a candidate for an Over bet and a combined F5 total under 5.2 would be a flag for the under.

Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.

https://windailysports.com/sign-up-for-a-free-membership-and-win-daily-at-dfs-sports-2/?aff=mlbmovingavg

 

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three heavy favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. If I have three picks of mixed intermediate value I will bet .07R on all three and then 0.31R on each leg of an AB, AC, BC Round Robin.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. I either pair by length/type (F5/FG/OU), or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

https://windailysports.com/betting-2/

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Let’s get it.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Welcome back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. Let’s keep this monster season rolling.

MLBMA Algo Results, 8/23

*** I ALWAYS WAIT FOR LINEUPS TO GO LIVE ***

NOTE: CONSIDER ALWAYS MOVING (-) RL PLAYS TO ML FOR PARLAYS

TODAY IS AT THE STANDARD 1.0% MAX RISK

SCROLL DOWN FOR DAILY BETTING STRATEGIES



A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages

MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards. These include combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.

Our Goal at MLBMA & WinDaily

Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.

Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. This also makes them extremely versatile across betting formats. The same way we use a difference in implied totals to determine a winner, we can use totals to bet the Over/Under. Any Implied Team Total above 3.0 for a team is considered high, and below 2.6 is considered low. Therefore, a combined F5 total (F5ITT) over 6.0 would be a candidate for an Over bet and a combined F5 total under 5.2 would be a flag for the under.

Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.

https://windailysports.com/sign-up-for-a-free-membership-and-win-daily-at-dfs-sports-2/?aff=mlbmovingavg

 

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three heavy favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. If I have three picks of mixed intermediate value I will bet .07R on all three and then 0.31R on each leg of an AB, AC, BC Round Robin.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. I either pair by length/type (F5/FG/OU), or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

https://windailysports.com/betting-2/

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Let’s get it.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Welcome back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. Let’s keep this monster season rolling.

*** I ALWAYS WAIT FOR LINEUPS TO GO LIVE ***

A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages

MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.

Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.

MLBMA Implied Team Totals Betting Key

  • F5inal – Each individual team’s score after the first five innings. Generally, a difference of one full run is the initial indicator for a high percentage ML play.
  • F5 ITT – First Five Implied Team Totals. It is the sum of the two finals and can be applied to F5 Over/Under betting.
  • F5 ML – First Five Inning Money Line Bet
  • F5 RL – First Five Inning Run Line Bet. -0.5 for Favorites and +0.5 for Underdogs.
  • FG ML – Full Game Money Line Bet
  • FG RL – Full Game Run Line Bet. -1.5 for Favorites and +1.5 for Underdogs.
  • TT – Team Total. Vegas posted line.
  • O/u – Over/under. Vegas posted line for F5.
  • dO/u – The difference between the MLBMA algo’s total, and the Vegas line.
  • Bets that satisfy the algorithm’s parameters are marked in green and labeled as the highest percentage plays. Not every flagged play ends up being bet.

Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. This also makes them extremely versatile across betting formats. The same way we use a difference in implied totals to determine a winner, we can use totals to bet the Over/Under. Any Implied Team Total above 3.0 for a team is considered high, and below 2.6 is considered low. Therefore, a combined F5 total (F5ITT) over 6.0 would be a candidate for an Over bet and a combined F5 total under 5.2 would be a flag for the under.

Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.

MLBMA Algo Results w/Implied Team Totals, 8/22

NOTE: CONSIDER ALWAYS MOVING (-) RL PLAYS TO ML FOR PARLAYS

TODAY IS AT THE STANDARD 1.0% MAX RISK

SCROLL DOWN FOR DAILY BETTING STRATEGIES

https://windailysports.com/sign-up-for-a-free-membership-and-win-daily-at-dfs-sports-2/?aff=mlbmovingavg

 

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three heavy favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. If I have three picks of mixed intermediate value I will bet .07R on all three and then 0.31R on each leg of an AB, AC, BC Round Robin.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. I either pair by length/type (F5/FG/OU), or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

https://windailysports.com/betting-2/

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Let’s get it.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
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