Ghost

This is probably one of my favorite NBA slates to date and it’s only fitting that it coincides with Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems. I’ve changed it up a bit today since I have a much clearer outlook on my approach this early in the day, listing some core plays for both sites in bold. If you start there and use the model to round out the rest, you may or may not be able to figure out what my main lineups will look like as we approach lock. Enjoy!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Russell Westbrook ($9,700 FD / $8,400 DK)

I almost spat out my orange juice when I wrote up this price tag right before publishing this. Sporting a 31% usage rate through 14 games in his Wizards tenure, Westbrook is averaging a near triple-double on the season to the tune of 19.4/9.2/9. The efficiency has been a career-low, as he’s only shooting 41.3% from the field and 33.9% from behind the arc, but the sheer volume that both he and Bradley Beal carry on a nightly basis is second to none; the 17.3 FGA per game make a 20-10-10 stat line more than plausible tonight against a lackluster Toronto interior defense. DK Core Play.

Malcolm Brogdon ($7,200 FD / $7,400 DK)

It was difficult to choose a single point guard to slot in here as the FD Core Play, but the former 2nd round pick and NBA Rookie of the Year out of UVA gets the nod. The usage rate has now increased just above 26% and Brogdon is averaging a cool 21.7/4/6.7 across 35.8 MPG. Not only is he going to be relied upon to shut down James Harden tonight, but he’s also in a great offensive spot against Brooklyn, who has allowed opposing point guards to allow the following stat lines in their past 6 games:

• Wright: 22/4/9
• Simmons: 16/12/8
• Lowry: 30/5/7
• Westbrook: 41/10/8
• Maledon: 24/3/3
• Young: 28/3/14

Player Pool:

• Luka Doncic ($10,900 FD / $10,800 DK)
• Trae Young ($10,100 FD / $9,900 DK)
• LaMelo Ball ($8,200 FD / $8,500 DK)
• Kyle Lowry ($7,600 FD / $7,300 DK)
• Hamidou Diallo ($6,500 FD / $6,500 DK)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($10,600 FD / $10,400 DK)

I don’t really need to provide analytics as to why you should be considering James Harden on tonight’s NBA slate. Kyrie is likely to sit and he’ll have the entire offense to himself, where he sports a usage rate north of 30% and 1.58 FPPM. Having dropped 60 or more DK points in 4 of the past 6, he can very well be the highest scorer on the entire slate.

Bradley Beal ($10,600 FD / $9,300 DK)

Alright so normally I would shy away from this price tag on FD when Russell Westbrook is playing, but with James Harden being the exact same price, Beal makes for a great pivot in GPPs. I want exposure to this Toronto/Washington game just as much, if not more than the Brooklyn/Indiana game, and it’s never a bad move to slot in the guy that leads the NBA in PPG.

Player Pool:

• Fred VanVleet ($9,300 FD / $8,600 DK)
• Devin Booker ($7,700 FD / $8,100 DK)
• Collin Sexton ($6,600 FD / $7,000 DK)

Small Forwards

Pascal Siakam ($9,400 FD / $8,300 DK)

Even if OG Anunoby returns for the Raptors tonight, my interest in Siakam is the highest it’s been all season long. Sporting a 25% usage rate on the season, Siakam has seen an uptick down the stretch, leading to an increase in production in both scoring and on the glass. With Washington suffering on the inside since the loss of Thomas Bryant, Siakam now has an opponent ranking 27th in the NBA in points allowed in the paint per game. The last time he faced someone this bad in his favorable metrics was last game against Memphis – he dropped 65 DKFP. DK Core Play.

Khris Middleton ($7,600 FD / $7,900 DK)

With Jrue Holiday missing this game for the Bucks after being an unknown scratch the game prior, Middleton will be taking over many minutes as the primary ball handler. With a 34% assist rate with Holiday off the floor, not only will Middleton be relied upon to continue being the secondary scoring option to Giannis, but he is now the primary playmaker. FD Core Play.

Others to Consider:

• Kawhi Leonard ($9,700 FD / $9,400 DK)
• Gordon Hayward ($7,500 FD / $7,700 DK)

Power Forwards

Domantas Sabonis ($9,300 FD / $8,600 DK)

Ah, we meet again, my good friend. Sabonis szn is in full effect tonight, coming with heavy ownership, but if the sun is rising, and I’m breathing, I’m playing him. A core play on both sites for me tonight, Sabonis gets the juicy matchup against the Nets interior defense, or lack thereof. One of the easiest plays on the NBA slate, and I’m not even considering fading him.

Isaiah Roby ($5,000 FD / $3,700 DK)

He makes the article because he’s right at the 5k threshold on FD, but Isaiah Roby is a DK Core Play for me tonight. Sitting at a mere $3,700, Roby will be locked for 25+ minutes, as the Thunder will be without Muscala, Maledon, SGA, and George Hill. Expect to see more of Diallo and Dort in the backcourt, but the Thunder have not hesitated to run Bazley at point, leading to more minutes for Roby in a thin rotation. Projecting early on as the top value play in our projections, he’s a lock for me barring any news whereby Thunder players magically become active again.

Others to Consider:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900 FD / $10,600 DK)
• Zion Williamson ($8,400 FD / $8,100 DK)
• Darius Bazley ($6,500 FD / $6,100 DK)

Centers

Not playing any true centers on DK tonight with multi-position eligibility (MPE) or certain power forwards listed above, but for FD, the list goes as followed:

• Nikola Jokic ($11,100)
• Clint Capela ($8,300)
• Andre Drummond ($7,700)
• Jonas Valanciunas ($7,200)
• Myles Turner ($6,800)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

Another NBA slate and Taco Tuesday’s edition of the Gems has you covered for the direction we are looking to take for our GPP lineups!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Damian Lillard ($9,800 FD / $10,000 DK)

There are a ton of good options where we can pay up and get a stud in our NBA lineups, but Dame needs to be in the conversation. Despite publicly admitting how exhausted he is and how his body is not 100%, the sheer volume that he carries on a nightly basis puts him in elite company. Coming off a game where he said he’ll “see how it goes”, where he then dropped 29/4/9 in 38 minutes, yeah, Lillard’s 33% usage rate without McCollum interests me at such low ownership.

Kyrie Irving ($9,500 FD / $9,300 DK)

The debate between which Brooklyn star to play when one of the three is out will forever be a challenge to our NBA lineups, but I side with Kyrie in this spot. The primary reason is less analytical and more so just from watching their offense: James Harden’s ability to play off the ball much better than Kyrie suits Steve Nash’s offense much better than Kyrie floating around the perimeter without the ball in his hands. Where Harden can drop shots from anywhere on the court, Kyrie does so to a much greater extent with the ball in his hands; he had a higher usage rate than Harden in games they have played together, and there’s no reason to believe this changes tonight.

Others to Consider:

• De’Aaron Fox ($8,600 FD / $8,800 DK)
• John Wall ($7,700 FD / $7,300 DK)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($11,000 FD / $10,900 DK)

While I do prefer Kyrie in this spot as I had just explained in the paragraph above, there’s no denying Harden’s ceiling in this matchup versus Detroit. Averaging 11.8 APG and 8.1 RPG since his arrival to the Big Apple, you know you’re in good hands when you’re dependent on Harden’s scoring ability for him to break an NBA slate.

Josh Jackson ($5,500 FD / $5,700 DK)

This is where things get a bit spicy – his price is up there on DK, and even at the time of writing, I’m not sure I’ll get there. Nonetheless, Josh Jackson is someone of high interest to me on tonight’s NBA slate given what the Detroit rotation will look like. With Sadiq Bey likely drawing into the starting 5 should someone be ruled out, Jackson will be the lone scorer off the bench now that DRose is in NY. Even if all of Wright (Q), Ellington (Q), and Blake Griffin (Q) all play, Jackson is still the only secondary ball handler that the pistons have, and Wright cannot play a full 48 minutes here. He’s shown his upside on both ends of the floor, and this fast-paced game can be one where he’s relied upon heavily, especially if the Pistons counter the Nets’ small lineup with one of their own.

Others to Consider:

• Tyrese Haliburton ($6,400 FD / $6,200 DK)
• Tyler Herro ($5,800 FD / $6,700 DK)

Small Forwards

Brandon Ingram ($8,900 FD / $8,500 DK)

In pace-up spots is where Brandon Ingram truly thrives, and tonight he is in yet another versus the Houston Rockets. In the past 4, Ingram has had soft matchups on the wing, which we’ve pointed out and continuously took advantage. He’s taken 20 or more shots and scored 20 or more points in all four of those same games, and while he struggles versus Houston last time, it wasn’t because of a lack of volume, rather a lack of efficiency: Ingram shot 5-for-15 from the field despite getting good looks, and with a 56.1% shooting percentage in his past two, including 14 three-point attempts, he’s another low owned option for tonight’s NBA slate in a good game environment.

Jerami Grant ($7,800 FD / $7,000 DK)

I rarely write up players that are pulling this much ownership on an NBA slate because I tend to differ from the chalk where I can in NBA GPPs, but Jerami Grant is in too good of a spot not to play him. With DRose now in NY, Grant will see an uptick to his season average 26% usage rate, where he’s averaging 24 PPG on 44.7% shooting. The minutes will be there, the matchup is soft against Brooklyn, the pace in this one will be off the charts, and he’s underpriced. Play the man.

Others to Consider:

• Jimmy Butler ($8,700 FD / $8,300 DK)

Power Forwards

Julius Randle ($9,000 FD / $9,100 DK)

Rarely do we stack a team that plays at the slowest pace in the league, but when the Knicks constantly find themselves in competitive game environments, they catch my eye. Cue the interest in their main man, Julius Randle, who is having a career year to the tune of 22.7/11/6 across a whopping 36.8 MPG. With Mitchell Robinson battling foul trouble against a faster, more agile Bam Adebayo, Randle won’t leave the court tonight, whether he’s at the ‘4’ or the ‘5’.

Draymond Green ($7,500 FD / $6,900 DK)

No James Wiseman? We can confidently fire up Draymond Green yet again here. The price has increased, but not to the point where he’s overpriced on this NBA slate. Three straight games with double-digit assists, Dray at the ‘5’ allows for the Warriors to push the pace versus a weak San Antonio defense and allow Steph to create space for himself both on and off the ball.

Others to Consider:

• Bam Adebayo ($8,800 FD / $8,700 DK)
• Zion Williamson ($8,400 FD / $8,200 DK)

Centers

• GPP Pivot: Joel Embiid ($10,600 FD / $10,500 DK)
• Chalk: Nikola Vucevic ($8,700 FD / $8,900 DK)

Also Consider:

• Mason Plumlee ($5,700 FD / $5,800 DK)
• DeMarcus Cousins ($6,000 FD / $7,400 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

With the NFL season now behind us, I’m looking forward to even better contest selection for NBA DFS. It’s Mojito Monday’s edition of the Gems, so you know we’re going to crush it tonight – let’s get to it.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Steph Curry ($10,100 FD / $10,300 DK)

There’s not much to be said about the 2-time MVP and 3-time NBA Champion other than he is back this season looking to carry the Warriors to a playoff berth without felling Splash Brother, Klay Thompson, in the lineup. Averaging a whopping 29.4 PPG in a mere 33.7 MPG, Curry is scoring in bunches and can get hot at any point in time. With the Spurs allowing over 50 FPPG to opposing primary ball handlers, Curry will have ample time to shoot the ball tonight versus inferior defenders, just as he did a few weeks ago in the same matchup, where he dropped 26/11/7 in only 30 minutes on 58.8% shooting with 4 triples.

Terry Rozier ($6,100 FD / $6,300 DK)

Even if Devonte’ Graham comes back to the lineup tonight for the Hornets, I’m expecting him to be the odd man out of the backcourt trio of Rozier, Ball and himself. With Rozier showing that he can handle both on-ball and off-ball duties, he will surely be out there with both Ball and Graham, should the latter play, making him an attractive piece on tonight’s NBA slate given his price. With the Rockets unable to defend the guard positions, Rozier will be a rare mid-range play I’m interested tonight given his combination of floor and ceiling in a high-tempo matchup.

Others to Consider:

• Luka Doncic ($11,400 FD / $11,000 DK)
• Kyle Lowry ($8,300 FD / $7,800 DK)

Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal ($10,800 FD / $9,000 DK)

Remember when Westbrook was out, and we automatically locked in Harden last season? The same thing applies here – locking in Bradley Beal. The price is a bit much on FD, but the Wizards and Bulls will do battle in a game environment that can not get much better considering there will be absolutely zero defense played in a game that features two of the league’s three fastest teams. Pacing the NBA with 33.2 PPG, where nobody else has even 30 PPG, Beal has a 37.6% usage rate without Westbrook in the lineup, where he averages 34.6/5.6/6.6 on 26.2 FGA per game.

Zach Lavine ($8,800 FD / $8,900 DK)

Hopefully you didn’t just skim to Beal blurb to understand what kind of game environment Zach Lavine is in on tonight’s NBA slate. Rocking a 36.4% usage rate and over 1.5 FPPM with the injuries that the Bulls roster are nursing, there’s no reason to believe that Lavine can’t duplicate his performance from a few days ago against Orlando, where he dropped 39 points on 25 shot attempts.

Others to Consider:

• Fred VanVleet ($9,200 FD / $8,500 DK)
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,400 FD / $8,000 DK)

Small Forwards

Pascal Siakam ($9,300 FD / $7,900 DK)

The two Raptors I have interest in are priced up on FD, but it goes without saying that we must consider them regardless. Given how short the Raptors’ rotation is, Lowry, Siakam, and VanVleet are all going to see 36+ minutes per night barring a blowout, and tonight is not one of those games, as they take on Memphis. Allowing the most FPPG to slashing forwards, Siakam will have his way versus a team that struggles on the defensive glass – he may miss opportunities, but the putbacks will be there, resulting in only more fantasy points.

Gordon Hayward ($7,600 FD / $7,900 DK)

I wrote up what the Hornets rotation could look like tonight in the absence of Devonte’ Graham, but even if he does play, Hayward is underpriced for this spot. On a team where a large portion of the volume goes through LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Hayward, getting a piece of the offense versus a Rockets defense tonight will be something I have in my NBA lineups, and having Hayward, who is averaging 23.1/5.5/3.9 on 49.9% shooting in a matchup versus Eric Gordon and Jae’Sean Tate is certainly a spot I’m looking at early on.

Others to Consider:

• LeBron James ($10,800 FD / $10,500 DK)
• Mikal Bridges ($5,600 FD / $5,700 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200 FD / $10,900 DK)

One of three games I’m looking to attack tonight, Giannis is in a great spot versus a spotty Nuggets defense. Not only will a combination of Paul Millsap and Michael Porter Jr. (LOL) not be able to guard the back-to-back NBA MVP, but with Joker being stuck guarding the paint against Giannis’ drives, he’ll either get into foul trouble, opening up even more room for Giannis when he comes off the floor, or he won’t play physical defense, which will work out just fine for Giannis’ production. With a 32.6% usage rate and a 27.1/11.2/5.8 scoring line in only 32.8 MPG, this spot may be too good to pass up on.

Draymond Green ($7,300 FD / $6,800 DK)

Draymond has turned in some vintage performances with the absence of James Wiseman in the lineup, resulting in more minutes at the ‘5’ and stat lines where he does everything but score. While the 5 PPG is awful to look out in his past three games, he’s also averaging 7.67 rebounds, 12.33 assists, 2.67 steals and 2 blocks. While the scoring would be nice, Dray has posted 40.75 DK in the same stretch, including a +33 rating in 103 minutes.

Others to Consider:

• Patrick Williams ($4,500 FD / $5,100 DK)

Centers

• FD: Andre Drummond ($7,200)
• DK: Nikola Jokic ($11,100)

Both Sites:

• Cody Zeller ($5,800 FD / $6,100 DK)
• Demarcus Cousins ($6,000 FD / $7,100 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

There’s already a ton of news to catch up, because, you know, it’s NBA DFS, and there’s plenty more to come. This has to be the chalkiest slate of the entire season given that OKC will be yet again running an 8-man rotation, one of which is Darius Miller, so a 7-man rotation, in addition to Demarcus Cousins and the pairing of Kyrie Irving and James Harden being high-owned. There are spots to get different tonight, so let’s explore our options.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Luka Doncic ($10,700 FD / $11,100 DK)

With the field likely flocking to one of Kyrie Irving and/or James Harden, the potential of a GPP pivot to stacking Doncic and Curry yet again can be the deciding factor to jumping the majority of entrants. With the price reduction he has on FD, Doncic is certainly in play considering he is much closer to Kyrie Irving in price than he is on DK. Nonetheless, this is a spot where Luka gets Curry and the Warriors for a second straight game, and coming off an embarrassing 147-116 loss, you know this game will shootout, and Luka won’t want to lose two in a row.

Steph Curry ($9,600 FD / $9,700 DK)

If we’re playing Luka and/or Porzingis in hopes that this one stays close, then Curry is the primary pivot to Kyrie Irving for NBA GPPs. Given how close the two are in salary, I’m expecting ridiculously low ownership on the greatest shooter of all time, who put up 41 DK points in only 28 minutes after sitting out the 4th quarter in a blowout victory just a few nights ago.

Others to Consider:

• Kyrie Irving ($9,500 FD / $9,400 DK)
• Kyle Lowry ($8,500 FD / $8,000 DK)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($10,800 FD / $10,700 DK)

You’ll notice a lot of the chalky options are in good spots today, which makes it frustrating from a GPP standpoint, but most will be mentioned in the “Others to Consider” spot simply because I’m not going to cop out and say play all of these guys for your NBA lineups to have an aggregate ownership of 1000%. However, with how shallow SG is on FD, combined with the fact that you need to roster two of them, James Harden is the primary option. While the steep salary may keep his ownership in check, Harden’s ability to carry the Nets offense while taking over the role of primary scorer sets him up for a ceiling game.

Fred VanVleet ($9,000 FD / $8,400 DK)

With everyone focusing on who is out for which team, as mentioned in the introduction, the field will stay away from the game with the most potential: Toronto @ Atlanta. If you look at VanVleet’s inconsistent production in two of the past three, you’ll see why people will not play him tonight. That’s exactly why I want to – he’s gone for 45+ FP in four of his last six and if the shot is dropping, his ceiling is higher than those priced around him. The volume is there, but you can’t help but hope he shoots efficiently rather than 4-for-16 like he did last night.

Others to Consider:

• Zach Lavine ($8,500 FD / $8,600 DK)
• Hamidou Diallo ($5,900 FD / $5,900 DK)

Small Forwards

Pascal Siakam ($8,900 FD / $7,700 DK)

Sporting a 27.4% usage rate in his last five games, Siakam has really turned it up down the stretch, averaging 23.6/7.8/4.4 across 36.4 MPG on 49.4% shooting. On an NBA slate where everyone is heading to the same direction, there’s a real possibility to stack this game in hopes it goes nuts, and Siakam is a crucial piece to that.

Brandon Ingram ($8,100 FD / $8,300 DK)

This is purely a FD play since there are tens of better options than him on DK, but with having to roster two SF on FD, Ingram is surely in play for NBA GPPs. With the Grizzlies being exploitable at virtually every position and the Pelicans playing much faster of late, BI has benefitted with 15 or more FGA in seven straight games. Having topped 20 or more points in his last three, look for Ingram to continue rolling here tonight.

Others to Consider:

• Malik Beasley ($6,900 FD / $6,700 DK)
• Keldon Johnson ($5,300 FD / $5,800 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200 FD / $11,000 DK)

A ton of stud options to pay up for on this NBA slate and Giannis is definitely one of them to consider. While the game environment is far from elite, Cleveland’s defense will keep them in this game, and consequently keep Giannis on the floor. Having just dropped 33/12/4 on them yesterday in 33 minutes, there’s no reason to believe Giannis can’t do it again.

Kristaps Porzingis ($7,800 FD / $8,200 DK)

If we are taking the same approach as mentioned in the Doncic and Curry blurbs, we are stacking a game with much lower ownership than other spots on this NBA slate that also happens to have the second highest over/under. With Golden State still missing James Wiseman, their interior defense went from bad to worse, and there’s no stopping Porzingis on both the inside and the perimeter in this spot.

Others to Consider:

• Anthony Davis ($9,800 FD / $9,600 DK)
• Draymond Green ($6,700 FD / $6,000 DK)

Centers

The Chalk:

• Al Horford ($6,100 FD / $6,500 DK)
• Demarcus Cousins ($5,900 FD / $6,300 DK)

The Pivots:

• Joel Embiid ($10,500 FD / $10,500 DK)
• Nikola Vucevic ($8,800 FD / $8,900 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

We’re moving onto another NBA slate and Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems! I absolutely love this slate, so let’s dive in.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Luka Doncic ($11,500 FD / $10,800 DK)

Very rarely will I pay the premium for Doncic on FD where you lose more points for turnovers and have no bonuses for double-doubles or triple-doubles, but when he’s dropping stat lines to the tune of 35-point triple-doubles and carrying a ceiling of 80 FD points, he’s certainly worth noting. In a fast-paced matchup versus the man he was traded for, Trae Young, and the Atlanta Hawks, Doncic finds himself in an elite game environment against a team that allows over 52 FPPG to opposing primary ball handlers, good for 28th in the NBA.

Trae Young ($10,400 FD / $9,500 DK)

On the flipside of the same game is Trae Young, who is also in an elite spot. They key for Young’s success has been getting opposing defenders to bite on his pump fakes and drawing fouls, as he currently sports the third-highest rank in the NBA with over 20 drives to the hoop per game. With Porzingis largely staying to the outside, Young will be able to score in bunches, allowing for a ceiling game.

Malcolm Brogdon ($8,400 FD / $8,100 DK)

I wrote him up yesterday and he excelled to 38 DK points in a mere three quarters before being removed because of a 20-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. Tonight, the Pacers come in as massive ‘dogs versus Milwaukee and Brogdon will need to bring his A-game to keep pace. With Milwaukee allowing nearly 48 FPPG to opposing point guards, Brogdon’s revenge narrative is too good to pass up.

Others to Consider:

• De’Aaron Fox ($8,200 FD / $8,500 DK)
• Chris Paul ($8,000 FD / $8,300 DK)
• LaMelo Ball ($6,600 FD / $7,000 DK)

Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal ($10,800 FD / $9,900 DK)

With Russell Westbrook likely sitting out the second half of a back-to-back for the Wizards, we can surely look to lock in Bradley Beal tonight, or close to it. In the games where Russ has missed, Beal is averaging just over 1.83 FPPM and has an absurd 43.5% usage rate. While the numbers certainly do jump off the page as MVP of this NBA slate, we need to wonder if Jimmy Butler will just cue on Beal all night long – something that will certainly hinder his ceiling. Nonetheless, he’s too cheap on DK but I can’t get there on FD where he’s nearly 11k.

Victor Oladipo ($8,200 FD / $7,800 DK)

In a game without John Wall, Victor Oladipo will be relied upon heavily as the primary ball handler. An OKC backcourt is already a favorable opponent, but now with both George Hill and SGA ruled out for tonight’s contest, Dipo’s 33.7% usage rate without his backcourt partner sets him up for a great spot on tonight’s NBA slate.

Collin Sexton ($6,800 FD / $6,900 DK)

Let’s make one thing clear, the Clippers cannot defend primary ball handlers. Look at what Kyrie and Harden did to them last night, Immanuel Quickley dropped 25 on them, Trae Young 38, De’Aaron Fox 25, and so on. Enter Collin Sexton, who comes into this one carrying a 28.7% usage rate with 24.1 PPG across 34.7 MPG. I can go on and on about more analytics, but sometimes it’s as simple as picking on a team that cannot defend a particular position or player style.

Others to Consider:

• Paul George ($8,400 FD / $8,700 DK)
• Immanuel Quickley ($5,800 FD / $5,500 DK)
• Tyrese Haliburton ($5,600 FD / $5,400 DK)

Small Forwards

Jimmy Butler ($8,500 FD / $8,400 DK)

In a pace-up spot versus Washington and their defense, or lack thereof, Jimmy Butler will look to continue his strong run since returning from a long absence due to COVID complications. Averaging 27.5/8/6.5 across 35.5 MPG since returning, Butler is too underpriced for a star in a game environment featuring the 29th ranked defense in the NBA.

Gordon Hayward ($7,400 FD / $7,200 DK)

Should Terry Rozier miss this game, I’ll let the field flock to the likes of LaMelo Ball, Devonte’ Graham, and perhaps chase the Malik Monk game from a few nights ago, in favor of exposure to Gordon Hayward and Miles Bridges. What most will focus on will be the absence of Rozier – and rightfully so – but losing PJ Washington now forces Hayward to shift to the ‘4’ and the Hornets to play smaller. With the 76ers have the length in Tobias Harris to match up on Hayward, he’ll be switching onto Danny Green the majority of the night, which can mean big things in big minutes at low ownership.

Others to Consider:

• Jaylen Brown ($8,700 FD / $7,900 DK)
• Khris Middleton ($7,900 FD / $8,200 DK)
• Miles Bridges ($4,200 FD / $4,600 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200 FD / $11,000 DK)

I’m not playing Giannis Antetokounmpo based on matchups or the opposing team’s defensive rating in the paint or any other reason we typically play him. Rather, I think this Pacers/Bucks game stays much closer than the spread indicates, and 36 minutes of Giannis is a ton of fun to have in our NBA lineups. Sporting a 33% usage rate on the season, the only preventing Giannis from hitting a ceiling game on an NBA slate is a blowout or foul trouble – two things we cannot control. In a highly anticipated matchup versus a strong Pacers team, he’ll be needed to counter the Sabonis/Brogdon duo all night long.

Domantas Sabonis ($8,800 FD / $8,300 DK)

Are you not entertained? Go back to a single livestream, article, podcast, or whichever medium of media we do and name a time I did not mention to play this man. He just came off a 61-point DK performance and his price went down. The 24.1% usage rate does not matter when he’s averaging 21.1/12/5.7 across 36.7 MPG and you better believe I’ll have a ton of exposure to him in my NBA lineups again tonight.

Julius Randle ($8,600 FD / $9,100 DK)

A secret weapon of sauce tonight, Julius Randle may be the overlooked player at the position simply because of who sits right above him. In a matchup versus a Bulls frontcourt that I love to pick on, Randle is fresh off dropping 23/11/7 on this same squad just a few nights ago, where he shot 43.75% from the field and played 39 minutes. With the backcourt going through an identity crisis, the one stable element to the franchise right now is Julius Randle, and there’s no stopping him in this matchup.

Others to Consider:

• Bam Adebayo ($9,100 FD / $9,300 DK)
• Kristaps Porzingis ($7,500 FD / $7,500 DK)

Centers

These two. That’s it. That’s the tweet.

• Joel Embiid ($10,200 FD / $10,000 DK)
• Clint Capela ($8,800 FD / $8,800 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

Coming off a profitable Monday, we’re onto tonight’s NBA slate and the Taco Tuesday’s edition of our Gems!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Russell Westbrook ($10,000 FD / $9,100 DK)

Beginning in one of the games I want to attack most, Russell Westbrook still has not had a price increase despite not having a minutes limitation and is fresh off a 73.5 DK-point performance, where he dropped 41/10/8 on Brooklyn in a thrilling victory. Sporting a 31.7% usage rate on the season, the sheer volume that Westbrook has, where he is averaging 19 FGA per game, makes him appealing on any given NBA slate, but in a matchup versus someone he does not care for in Damian Lillard and fresh off a ridiculous outing versus Brooklyn, expect to see an aggressive Westbrook tonight who is simply too cheap for his floor/ceiling combination and can put up a triple-double at any point in time, as seen by his 20.9/9.4/9.5 season averages.

Malcolm Brogdon ($8,400 FD / $7,900 DK)

With all of the stud point guards we have at the top of the pricing grid, Malcolm Brogdon will get severely overlooked in GPPs. Although I like the attack the Memphis frontcourt, who may be without Jonas Valanciunas yet again tonight, Ja Morant is one of the worst defenders in the NBA, as seen by the Grizzlies allowing over 48 FPPG to opposing primary ball handlers.

Others to Consider:

• Damian Lillard ($10,200 FD / $10,700 DK)
• Steph Curry ($9,400 FD / $9,600 DK)

Shooting Guards

Paul George ($8,400 FD / $8,900 DK)

While I will try to get exposure to this game for obvious reasons, it will largely come in the form of Paul George and Kevin Durant. I will not be playing Harden at his price tag, but I can’t blame you if you choose to do so considering the ceiling he has on any given night. Enter the primary pivot, PG13, who has a 28.5% usage rate this season while shooting 50.2% from the field and 45.4% from deep. With Kawhi preoccupied by KD on both ends of the floor, give me George against a combination of Kyrie and Harden all night long.

Donovan Mitchell ($7,800 FD / $7,600 DK)

Although this game has PPD risk given the potential COVID situation of the Detroit Pistons, we can keep an eye on it throughout the day, as we do with every other player news and team related information, and feel confident about Donovan Mitchell in our NBA lineups tonight should they be cleared. With the Pistons missing rookie Killian Hayes for some time now, their defense has actually improved versus primary ball handers, but they allow over 46 FPPG nonetheless, and Mitchell’s 30.9% usage rate and 22.8 PPG pace the squad.

Others to Consider:

• James Harden ($10,500 FD / $10,900 DK)
• Jeremy Lamb ($5,300 FD / $5,400 DK)

Small Forwards

Jaylen Brown ($8,700 FD / $7,800 DK)

Even with Tatum back in the lineup for the Celtics, we cannot ignore what JB has provided in a career year offensively. He takes a 2% dip in usage as a result, but still has a 29.3% rate, where he also averaging a career-high 26.2 PPG. In a game that will feature little defense as the Warriors will be without James Wiseman tonight, JB will be relied upon, along with Tatum, to keep pace with Curry & Co. as the Celtics try to squeak this one out without Marcus Smart.

Pascal Siakam ($8,300 FD / $7,700 DK)

What would have been a defensive snoozefest is now a viable spot for GPP Gems. With OG Anunoby already ruled out and Norman Powell doubtful to play, we can go back to Pascal Siakam for the Raptors and his increase usage rate. In the past two without OG and Norm, Siakam has a 33.6% usage rate and is averaging 31/7/2.5 on 53.5% shooting. He’s extremely volatile given Lowry and FVV’s roles, but it’s what can make our NBA lineups tonight rather than break them, considering most will shy away.

Others to Consider:

• Kevin Durant ($11,200 FD / $10,100 DK)
• Kawhi Leonard ($9,600 FD / $9,200 DK)

Power Forwards

Jayson Tatum ($9,500 FD / $8,600 DK)

I was thrilled to see him back in the lineup for Boston the other day and Jayson Tatum gets a great matchup tonight versus a small Warriors frontcourt. Already without James Wiseman, Draymond is questionable for this one and even if he does play, Tatum has the edge given his length and ability to score from both the outside and in the post. Sporting a 31.2% usage rate on the year, Tatum is averaging 26.33 PPG in his three games since returning while shooting 51.6% from the field.

Domantas Sabonis ($9,100 FD / $8,700 DK)

When I mentioned Malcolm Brogdon would get overlooked in GPPs tonight, you knew this one was coming. Sabonis will see a combination of Xavier Tillman, Brandon Clarke, and Gorgui Dieng in the paint tonight and um, that’s fun. A mere 24.1% usage rate has not stopped Sabonis from producing, as he holds a strong 20.6/12 double-double to go along with 5.7 APG, and he’ll have his way all night long with close to no ownership on tonight’s NBA slate.

Others to Consider:

• Brandon Clarke ($6,400 FD / $6,200 DK)
• Xavier Tillman ($5,400 FD / $5,100 DK)

Centers

Nikola Vucevic ($8,800 FD / $8,200 DK)

By no means am I playing anyone else at the center position tonight in my main lineup. On FD, he’s cheap, but on DK, this price makes no sense. Now without both Markelle Fultz and Aaron Gordon, the entire Orlando offense is going through Vuc. The. Entire. Thing. With the Raptors having no interior defense, this sets up Vuc in a great spot, and even though he shot 5-for-18 last game, he still put up 49 DK points. Let that sink in before fading him.

Also Consider:

• Myles Turner ($7,400 FD / $6,800 DK)
• Enes Kanter ($7,000 FD / $6,900 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

As we turn the page to another week of NBA DFS, we’re back for a new edition of Mojito Monday’s Gems as we prepare for tonight’s slate!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Damian Lillard ($10,000 FD / $10,700 DK)

No CJ McCollum has benefitted Dame, to no one’s surprise, but the matchup versus a Milwaukee team that simply cannot defend the perimeter is what has him at the top of my priority list at the PG position. Sporting a 31.1% usage rate on the season, Dame now averages 29.6 PPG thanks to 5 of his past 6 games, where he dropped 30 or more, including 4 of 6 being 35 or more. While the 38.7% shooting from behind the arc can surely improve, Dame is still launching 10.6 three-pointers per game and Milwaukee allows 15.2 three-pointers made per game.

De’Aaron Fox ($8,200 FD / $8,300 DK)

FD refuses to increase his price and I’ll gladly take advantage. Being the entire Sacramento offense, Fox’s current scoring line of 21.3/3.4/6.1 on a 30.2% usage rate doesn’t exactly jump off the page, but his game environment does: with New Orleans having pace-up spots in their last four games, they are currently playing at the fastest pace in the NBA – something that De’Aaron Fox likes to, um, do quite often, and do quite well. With the Pelicans allowing over 48 FPPG to opposing primary ball-handlers, Fox is the guy I want in this matchup all night long.

Others to Consider:

• Dejounte Murray ($6,900 FD / $6,600 DK)
• LaMelo Ball ($6,300 FD / $6,500 DK)

Shooting Guards

Victor Oladipo ($8,200 FD / $8,000 DK)

Thanks to multi-position eligibility (MPE) on DK, I won’t have to play any of these guys on DK tonight, but for our FD players, the position is ugly. The combination of floor/ceiling at the upper range of the pricing grid begins and ends with Vic Oladipo, who has a 31.5% usage rate in 6 games with the Rockets thus far, averaging 22/5/5.2 across 32.8 MPG. Facing a poor OKC defense, he’s as safe as it gets for our NBA GPP lineups on FD tonight if paying up at the position.

Collin Sexton ($6,800 FD / $7,000 DK)

A preferable target of mine on FD tonight over Dipo, Collin Sexton’s price continues to be unreflective of his scoring output. Sure, he takes a hit with Andre Drummond dropping 20/20 like it’s his day job, but with the Cavaliers on the second half of a back-to-back, Sexton will shoulder a much larger load tonight. The T-Wolves rank 27th in the NBA in defense rating and a matchup versus D’Angelo Russell will have Sexton as a primary target of mine on FD, where the T-Wolves allow over 44 FPPG to opposing primary ball-handlers.

Others to Consider:

• Kendrick Nunn ($5,900 FD / $6,000 DK)
• Devonte’ Graham ($5,500 FD / $6,400 DK)

Small Forwards

Jimmy Butler ($8,700 FD / $8,400 DK)

Coming off a long stretch of missing games for the defending Eastern Conference Champions, Jimmy Butler made his presence known in his return, dropping 30/7/8 in 34 minutes just a few nights ago against Sacramento. The key here was how aggressive Butler was, getting to the free throw line a ridiculous 16 times; with the Hornets struggling on the inside with a combination of PJ Washington and Cody Zeller on the inside, expect Butler to run the same type of offense he did the other night.

Khris Middleton ($7,900 FD / $8,500 DK)

I cannot stress how important getting exposure to this game is for tonight’s NBA slate. While he is clearly a #2 option on the Bucks, Middleton has the edge it takes to be an x-factor in this matchup versus Dame and the Blazers. Despite the low 24.1% usage rate, which is expected when you’re sharing the court with Giannis, Middleton is still averaging 21.4/6.5/5.8 across 33.2 MPG. The volume isn’t something that will jump off the page, with just over 15 FGA per game, but his 51% shooting from the field is no joke. A matchup versus Carmelo Anthony and Gary Trent on the wing has Middleton on my radar tonight considering the absence of Derrick Jones Jr. on the Blazers’ wing.

Others to Consider:

• Brandon Ingram ($8,000 FD / $8,200 DK)
• Malik Beasley ($6,500 FD / $6,700 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,600 FD / $11,000 DK)

The Greek Freak is the top play on the entire NBA slate tonight. With an increasing 33.4% usage rate, Giannis is now averaging 27.4/11.4/5.7 on 55.3% shooting, including 30.33 PPG and 14.16 RPG across 37.83 MPG in his past 6. With Giannis attacking the likes of Enes Kanter and a much smaller Robert Covington, in addition to Carmelo Anthony in the paint all night long, there is no reason why he cannot be the highest scorer on the slate.

Anthony Davis ($10,300 FD / $9,800 DK)

A pure GPP gem tonight, Anthony Davis will first need to lose the ‘Q’ tag, as in every other game in his career, before we can consider him on tonight’s NBA slate. Nonetheless, Davis will be needed to monitor the paint with Clint Capela on the other side and have to be much more aggressive on the glass than he has been this season; Davis is only averaging 9.1 RPG this season, but he is an extremely talented rebounder and will be needed to counter Capela. With 20 or more FGA in his last four, his volume is ramping up, and so is his DFS ceiling.

Others to Consider:

• Julius Randle ($8,800 FD / $9,200 DK)
• Zion Williamson ($8,300 FD / $7,900 DK)
• Xavier Tillman ($5,100 FD / $4,800 DK)

Centers

Nikola Jokic ($10,900 FD / $10,900 DK)

The favorite for NBA MVP, Joker has been playing on another level this season. Rocking a 29.5% usage rate, he’s currently averaging a near triple-double to the tune of 26.8/11.8/8.6 on 57.4% shooting. Coming off a 47-point performance in a win versus the Jazz, the back-to-back may scare some away, and that will keep his ownership lower than it should be, which is a big mistake versus a Pistons frontcourt that allows over 58 FPPG to opposing centers, including over 10 offensive rebounds allowed per game.

Enes Kanter ($7,000 FD / $7,200 DK)

Similarly to Oladipo, Kanter is the safest option at a bare position tonight on FD. In an ideal world, we can pay up for Jokic and move on, but with the priorities being Lillard and Antetokounmpo, Jokic will be hard to get to. Enter Kanter, who is averaging 12.8/13/2.5 across 29.6 MPG when starting. Facing Brook Lopez down low used to be a spot to avoid, but with his blocking ability being a shell of what it once was, I’m not opposed to going here for his combination of floor and ceiling in NBA GPPs.

Also Consider:

• Cody Zeller ($5,200 FD / $5,300 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost