Ghost

Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems on St. Patrick’s Day, what a time to be alive. Another juicy NBA slate is on tap, with star power that includes the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, James Harden, Steph Curry, Bradley Beal, and more. There will be a ton of value to open up, so let’s lock that down together in Discord to see which studs we build around. An early look in the day, let’s get to who the candidates are.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Luka Doncic ($10,200 FD / $10,700 DK)

The slate begins with a certain MVP candidate against the same opponent he faced just a few days ago. Here is my writeup from that game versus LA:

Primary ball handlers versus LA? One of the best players in NBA DFS? Check and check. Luka Doncic comes into this one as one of, if not the player with the highest upside, and there is no chance I’m passing up this spot for him. On a team featuring Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, it was Lonzo Ball that did all the damage to the Clippers less than 24 hours ago, dropping 20/8/5. I’ve been attacking this spot all season long, and with a 31.7% usage rate in two games since returning from the ASG break, where he is averaging 21.5/8.5/12 on 44.4% shooting, my lineups begin with the face of the Mavericks franchise tonight.

Luka dropped 70 DK points that night at 10% ownership. That is all.

Steph Curry ($9,400 FD / $9,800 DK)

Curry has a cakewalk of a matchup tonight should John Wall and/or Victor Oladipo had been playing, but with both ruled out of this one, it gets even easier for the greatest shooter in NBA history. Sporting a 32.4% usage rate on the season, I’d expect nothing less than a ceiling game from Steph in this one versus a Rockets team that plays at the fourth fastest pace in the league, with the Warriors coming in as the second fastest, while the Rockets allow opponents to shoot 37.5% from deep, ranking them 23rd in the NBA.

De’Aaron Fox ($9,100 FD / $9,200 DK)

Washington comes into tonight’s tilt ranking first in the NBA in pace of play, and a certain Sacramento point guard does that well – very well, indeed. Sporting a 30.1% usage rate on the season, Fox can score in bunches and dish the rock with the best of ‘em, making him a premier target on both sites tonight. The game environment is elite, and Washington allows nearly 50 FPPG to opposing primary ball handlers.

Malcolm Brogdon ($7,000 FD / $7,200 DK)

In an elite game environment versus one of the worst defenses in the NBA since the James Harden trade, Malcolm Brogdon will shoulder a heavy workload on both ends of the court tonight. Tasked with guarding one of James Harden or Kyrie Irving on every possession, the former ROY out of UVA has really turned it up since the All-Star break, averaging 26/6/4.7 on 55.8% shooting with a usage rate of 27.7%.

Also Consider:

• Kyle Lowry ($8,300 FD / $8,600 DK)
• Ben Simmons ($7,900 FD / $8,900 DK)

Value Gems:

• Sterling Brown ($4,800 FD / $4,600 DK)
• Reggie Jackson ($4,300 FD / $5,100 DK)
• Tomas Satoransky ($3,900 FD / $3,800 DK)
• Jordan Poole ($3,600 FD / $3,500 DK)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($11,000 FD / $10,900 DK)

Not much can be said about James Harden’s offensive contribution to the Brooklyn Nets since his arrival from Houston. Sporting a 27.2% usage rate in 26 games for the Nets, Harden has averaged a ridiculous 25.1/9/11.3 on 48.6% shooting, including 38.7% from deep and 87.2% at the charity stripe. Carrying the offensive load once again tonight with Kevin Durant sidelined, Harden will play heavy minutes and is always a threat to lead any NBA slate in scoring.

Bradley Beal ($9,500 FD / $9,300 DK)

Remember when everyone was mad about Beal’s production out of the NBA All-Star break and didn’t play him last slate? That was funny. All the leading scorer in the league did was drop a cool 37/6/5 on 68.4% shooting against Milwaukee, and tonight he gets the Sacramento Kings, who rank – wait for it – dead last in defensive rating.

Donte DiVincenzo ($4,600 FD / $5,200 DK)

A relatively affordable option on both sites tonight, Donte DiVincenzo won’t wow you with his statistics; he doesn’t score a ton, but won’t rack up 10+ assists, but what he does do is fill a box score. With how thin the Milwaukee Bucks rotation is on a nightly basis, DiVi plays a ton of minutes, meaning his 0.9 FPPM doesn’t scare me – he’s a low usage player, sporting a 17.3% clip since the NBA All-Star break, but he’s averaging a near double-double with 11 PPG to go along with 9.3 RPG.

Caris LeVert ($4,400 FD)

A FanDuel special tonight, Caris LeVert finds himself playing in a game versus the very organization that traded him in the James Harden blockbuster. In a mere two games with the Pacers this season, LeVert is sporting a 25.3% usage rate and is acting as a secondary scorer to the Brogdon/Sabonis pick ‘n roll combination, scoring 15 PPG to go along with 4.5 RPG and 2 APG. Shooting at a 44% clip, LeVert is finding his form and is simply too cheap to not consider rostering yet again tonight on FD.

Also Consider:

• Paul George ($7,600 FD / $7,900 DK)
• Buddy Hield ($6,500 FD / $6,400 DK)

Value Gems

• Devin Vassell ($3,500 FD / $3,200 DK)
• Mason Jones ($3,500 FD / $3,100 DK)

Small Forwards

Kawhi Leonard ($9,300 FD / $8,700 DK)

After a slow start last game versus Dallas last time out, Kawhi absolutely poured it on in the second half, scoring 14 of his 22 points in a game where he only came off the court for a total of eight minutes. Scoring 22 or more points in six straight games, he’s still too cheap on both sites for a player of his magnitude.

Norman Powell ($7,700 FD / $7,500 DK)

Stormin’ Norman’s price has quickly increased after being underpriced for the few games that the Raptors were without the trio of OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, and Fred VanVleet. While Siakam may make his way back into the lineup today, both OG and FVV are unlikely to play in this one versus the worst team in the NBA. In 26 games as a starter this season, Powell has scored in bunches, averaging 22.6 PPG on 52.4% shooting and will draw the lesser coverage of the Pistons’ wings, as Jerami Grant will flank onto Siakam all night long.

Kevin Porter Jr. ($6,300 FD / $6,800 DK)

Outside of Christian Wood, who makes his debut after a ridiculously long layoff, the Rockets have no offensive weapons tonight in the absence of John Wall, Victor Oladipo, and Eric Gordon. In 4 games with the Rockets this season since being called up from the G-League, KPJ is sporting a 26.9% usage rate and averages 18.3/3.5/8.3 on 42% shooting. After yesterday’s game, his price somehow went down – don’t question it, just take advantage.

Rui Hachimura ($5,000 FD / $5,800 DK)

On a tear in his last two, Rui Hachimura is worth noting down at a surprisingly deeper-than-usual SF position. Sporting a lowly 23.2% usage rate in his last two games, this Rui has dropped 25.5 PPG to go along with 9 RPG in a whopping 37.5 MPG. Playing heavy minutes for a Wizards wing/frontcourt rotation is huge considering their carousel at the center position, take the sure-fire player who has taken 18 shots per game in his past two while shooting 55.6% from the field and 50% from deep against the worst defense in the NBA.

Also Consider:

• Jaylen Brown ($7,300 FD / $7,700 DK)
• KJ Martin ($5,000 FD / $5,200 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400 FD / $11,000 DK)

Three straight triple-doubles for Giannis and the Bucks are pushing for the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference. Without Joel Embiid guarding the paint tonight, there will be no slowing down Antetokounmpo in this one, who has a 33.2% usage rate and a 31.9/12.4/7.1 scoring line across his last 10 contests.

Domantas Sabonis ($9,200 FD / $9,400 DK)

The most underappreciated player in the NBA takes on a vulnerable Brooklyn frontcourt tonight and I could not be more excited. Sporting a 24.5% usage rate on the season, Sabonis piles on the minutes for the Pacers, 36.4 per game to be exact, while dropping a season average scoring line of 20.5/11.2/6.3 on 52.6% shooting. He can score in bunches, attack the glass on both ends of the floor, and dish the rock on the outside as much as he wants in this one, which will be fast-paced and feature little defense; Brooklyn ranks 8th in the NBA in pace of play and allows 50.2 points per game in the paint, good for 27th in the league.

Tobias Harris ($7,800 FD / $8,400 DK)

If you’re flirting with the midrange tonight, give Tobias Harris a look. While he will certainly not be in my DK lineup, and most likely not in my FD one, it does not mean we can’t consider the second strongest scoring option on a Philadelphia team without Joel Embiid. Seeing a bump in usage rate, scoring rate, and assist rate, Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons have a chance to prove that they can hold onto the 1 seed without their MVP.

Draymond Green ($6,700 FD / $6,600 DK)

Similarly to Curry, Draymond has a cake walk of a matchup versus the likes of Christian Wood and Justin Patton. While Houston only allows 24 assists per game, I’m expecting Green to control both the perimeter and the interior in tonight’s tilt since he is not overly outsized. Averaging 8.4 APG on the season, good for 7th in the NBA, a game with the league’s second and fourth fastest squads is one to attack tonight, and it begins with the Curry/Green combination.

Others to Consider:

• Jayson Tatum ($9,000 FD / $9,200 DK)
• Thad Young ($6,600 FD / $6,000 DK)
• Jae’Sean Tate ($5,000 FD / $5,400 DK)

Value Gems

• Nemanja Bjelica ($4,500 FD / $3,700 DK)
• Daniel Theis ($4,400 FD / $4,100 DK)
• Isaiah Stewart ($4,000 FD / $3,900 DK)
• Bobby Portis ($4,000 FD / $4,500 DK)

Centers

• Nikola Jokic ($11,200 FD / $10,800 DK)
• Jarrett Allen ($7,500 FD / $7,700 DK)
• Richaun Holmes ($6,900 FD / $6,700 DK)

Also Consider:

• Myles Turner ($6,100 FD / $5,900 DK)
• Jakob Poeltl ($5,600 FD / $5,900 DK)
• Robert Williams ($5,600 FD / $5,600 DK)

Value Gems

• James Wiseman ($3,800 FD)
• Drew Eubanks ($3,500 FD / $3,100 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

Thirsty Thursday’s edition of the Gems is a big one – we’re combining both cash and GPP plays in the same article, so look for clarification at the end of each blurb on where to play the individual player. A massive NBA slate after yesterday’s 2-gamer – let’s get to it!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Damian Lillard ($10,000 FD / $10,700 DK)

Dame Dolla entered the NBA ASG break on a tear and he’ll be looking to continue the Trail Blazers’ surge as he awaits the return of teammates CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic from their respective injuries. Entering this one with a whopping 35% usage rate with McCollum out of the lineup, Dame averages a cool 31.1 PPG on 44.7% shooting in these games, taking 22 shots per game, including 11.9 from behind the arc. While the Suns will be a daunting task, the Blazers will only go as far as Dame can take them in this one. GPP Play.

Kyrie Irving ($9,000 FD / $9,600 DK)

Kyrie and Harden will have their hands full tonight versus a disappointing Celtics squad. While they have been wildly underperforming the entire NBA season, the Celtics get the much-awaited return of Marcus Smart tonight, who will prove to be a catalyst on both the offensive and defensive end of the ball. Enter the shifty Irving, who entered the All-Star break with a 30.3% usage rate in his past five games, scoring 25.4 PPG on 44.1% shooting on 22.2 FGA per game. GPP Play.

Trae Young ($8,800 FD / $9,900 DK)

With how much Kyle Lowry will handle on the offensive end tonight, he will be completely gassed on the defensive side of the ball. In addition, Atlanta runs an offense that involves getting Trae Young into favorable switches on a dive to the basket or a pick ‘n roll to Clint Capela – the issue for the Raptors tonight is that he won’t be switching onto Fred VanVleet, rather, he’ll be on Terence Davis or Bembry. Yikes. Sporting a 32.6% usage rate on the season, the Hawks’ push for the playoffs begins right now, and this is as close to a must-win as it gets. GPP Play.

Chris Paul ($7,500 FD / $7,800 DK)

If you’re looking for a mid-tier option on tonight’s NBA slate that is both safe and has enough upside to warrant consideration, CP3 is your guy. While Oladipo is fine in this spot, a perfect pivot to get over the field is Paul, who has been on a tear this season: on a 22.3% usage rate, CP3 has been the anchor to the Suns’ run to glory this season, averaging 16/4.7/8.8 on 48.6% shooting. In a matchup versus Dame and the Trail Blazers, CP3 gets as favorable of a matchup as it gets on this slate; Portland struggles mightily versus primary ball handlers, allowing over 51 FPPG to the position. Cash + GPP Play.

Shake Milton ($4,200 FD / $5,300 DK)

With both Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons missing tonight’s game versus Chicago, Shake Milton will likely slide into the starting 5 and run point for the Sixers tonight. With Tobias Harris getting the largest bump in usage rate, Milton’s rise to is notable, nearing a 31% usage rate in his own right. In his only start this season, Milton dropped a cool 24/1/7 on 61.5% shooting, and gets a favorable matchup versus Chicago tonight, who rank near the bottom of the NBA in FPPG allowed to opposing combo guards. Cash + GPP Play.

Also Consider:

• John Wall ($8,200 FD / $8,200 DK)
• De’Aaron Fox ($8,500 FD / $9,100 DK)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($11,500 FD / $11,000 DK)

No KD? Yes, James Harden. Simple as that, folks. The salary is top tier, but so is his upside on a large NBA slate that will keep his ownership lower than it should be. While the Celtics do not push the pace to the extent that the Wizards, Warriors, and Timberwolves do, it’s Brooklyn’s 7th-fastest offense in the NBA that will dictate this one. With Boston likely countering with a combination of Robert Williams and Daniel Theis at the ‘5’ with Tatum at the ‘4’ in crunch minutes since Smart is back in the lineup, Harden will have ample opportunity to push the pace in this one, having averaged 29.3/9.7/11 on 51.4% shooting in his last nine games before the break. Cash + GPP Play.

Paul George ($7,800 FD / $8,500 DK)

Will the Warriors keep this one close enough to keep PG13 and Kawhi in the game? I believe so, considering how much LA struggles versus primary ball handlers, and they face a pretty good one tonight in Steph Curry. Having the ASG break to recover from multiple injuries, PG13 will be fresh for tonight’s tilt versus the Warriors, who play at the second-fastest pace in the NBA. Averaging 23.7/6.1/5.4 on 49.9% shooting with a 28.8% usage rate on the season, a big second half begins tonight for PG and the Clippers. GPP Play.

Victor Oladipo ($7,700 FD / $8,200 DK)

With the Rockets now missing Christian Wood, David Nwaba, and Danuel House to injury, in addition to Boogie Cousins being let go off the roster, the entire offense now falls onto John Wall and Victor Oladipo. In 15 games with Houston, Dipo is sporting a 30.3% usage rate and carries a 19.9/4.9/4.7 scoring line on 38.7% shooting – far from impressive, but the workload will be heavy tonight, and we can eat the ownership in cash. Cash Play.

Also Consider:

• Devin Booker ($7,700 FD / $8,000 DK)

Small Forwards

Kawhi Leonard ($9,300 FD / $8,900 DK)

Similarly to what was written for PG13, can the Warriors keep this one close enough to get Kawhi into the 30+ minute range? That’s the primary concern when evaluating PG13 and Kawhi tonight, but there is no denying that they are both mightily underpriced for their respective ceilings. Sporting a 29.8% usage rate on the season, The Klaw can easily drop 30 tonight – but if playing him, you need to stack him with Curry to make it worth your while. GPP Play.

Norman Powell ($7,500 FD / $7,200 DK)

Toronto remains without Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and OG Anunoby tonight, meaning Stormin’ Norman gets another start here for the offensively starving Raptors. In 3 games before the NBA ASG break with the same key players missing, Norm averaged 30.3 PPG on 59.6% shooting on a 27.4% usage rate. The price is high for someone that is solely reliant on his scoring ability, but facing a Hawks team that cannot play defense this season without De’Andre Hunter in the lineup, he finds himself as a key component to our cash builds. Cash + GPP Play.

Also Consider:

• Kevin Porter Jr. ($4,900 FD / $3,200 DK)
• Danny Green ($4,100 FD / $4,700 DK)
• Matisse Thybulle ($3,500 FD / $3,100 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300 FD / $11,100 DK)

He’s in play on every NBA slate, but tonight, there is nobody – with the exception of James Harden – that carries the same ceiling as Giannis, including Luka Doncic. Sporting a 35.5% usage rate in his last seven games before the NBA ASG break, Giannis was on a tear that he’ll look to continue tonight, where he was averaging 33/12.6/5.7 on 55.9% shooting, versus a Knicks team that misses the interior defense of Mitch Robinson tremendously. Cash + GPP Play.

Zion Williamson ($9,000 FD / $9,300 DK)

Being the laughingstock of the NBA ASG is never fun, especially when you’re making your first appearance with the best players in the league. How quickly people forget how good Zion has been this season, though, averaging 25.6 PPG to go along with 7.2 RPG and 3.4 APG on a ridiculous 61.4% shooting. Brandon Ingram will always cut into Zion’s ceiling until the Pelicans can figure out who they real alpha of the team is, but this price entices me versus Minnesota struggling interior defense, who allow a ridiculous 48.7 points in the paint per game and over 58 FPPG to opposing big men. GPP Play.

Jayson Tatum ($8,900 FD / $9,400 DK)

Bigs versus Brooklyn? Is Jayson Tatum even considered a big? Tonight, he sure is. Sporting a 30.4% usage rate on the season, Tatum has taken yet another step in his professional career, averaging nearly 25 PPG on 43.7% shooting, taking over 20 shots per game for the Cs. With Brooklyn’s interior defense being the worst in the NBA since the roster overhaul, sky’s the limit for the former Duke Blue Devil tonight. GPP Play.

Tobias Harris ($6,900 FD / $8,100 DK)

Our cash game builds start with Tobias Harris tonight, who will be tasked with shouldering a heavy load on offense for the Sixers in the absence of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. Having increases in usage rate, assist rate, and scoring rate with these two out of the lineup, Harris averages just above 1.2 FPPM in a 150+ minute sample size – that’s good enough at his price tags on both sites, and we can eat the chalk and move on to the rest of our NBA lineups. Cash Play.

Others to Consider:

• Jae’Sean Tate ($4,700 FD / $5,500 DK)

Centers

GPP

• Nikola Vucevic ($9,900 FD / $10,400 DK)
• Richaun Holmes ($6,800 FD / $6,500 DK)

Cash

• Kelly Olynyk ($4,500 FD / $5,100 DK)
• Dwight Howard ($3,800 FD / $5,300 DK)

Also Consider:

• Justin Patton ($4,000 FD / $4,900 DK)
• Deandre Ayton ($7,200 FD / $6,900 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost