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As the rest of the industry is focused on Opening Day of the MLB season, we’re going to prioritize tonight’s NBA slate and find out where the edge is. Moving forward, this article will cover both GPP and Cash plays, so look for who belongs in which contest type at the end of the player blurb. It’s Thirsty Thursday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Russell Westbrook ($11,300 FD / $11,000 DK)

Sporting a 30.9% usage rate in his last four games, it’s pretty hard to ignore was Russ is doing for the Wizards; averaging a whopping 22.3/16.5/13.5 stat line, his lack of offensive efficiency simply does not matter when there is arguably no player on this NBA slate that has the recent volume that Westbrook is shouldering. GPP + Cash (only if Beal out)

Kyrie Irving ($10,000 FD / $9,800 DK)

With James Harden missing the entire fourth quarter in last night’s 120-108 comeback win versus Houston, Kyrie Irving may be tasked with shouldering the entire Brooklyn offense tonight. Averaging 27 PPG in eight games without James Harden in the lineup this season, Irving usage rate will be through the roof, giving him ample opportunity to be the highest scorer on tonight’s NBA slate. GPP + Cash

Jamal Murray ($7,300 FD / $7,700 DK)

Primary ball handlers versus LAC – lather, rinse, repeat. Risky to fade Jokic in this spot in favor of Jamal Murray, but having come off a 30/6/4 performance versus Philadelphia, where he shot the ball 24 times, Murray’s scoring streak can easily power him into being one of the high-risk, low-owned plays on tonight’s NBA slate. GPP Play

Also Consider:

  • Dejounte Murray ($7,800 FD / $7,100 DK)
  • Terry Rozier ($7,500 FD / $8,000 DK)
  • Reggie Jackson ($5,000 FD / $5,300 DK)

Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal ($8,800 FD / $9,100 DK)

His price keeps dropping, and while he hasn’t had the consistency over scoring 25+ points in essentially every game before the NBA All-Star break, there is no denying the fact that the leading scorer in the league can take over a game. Yes, Westbrook’s peripherals are better, but Beal is the only player in the league averaging over 30 PPG and when he’s dropping 26/4/9 like he did in his last full game on only 8-for-23 shooting, a hot hand can result in a slate-breaking performance at this price point. GPP Play

Hamidou Diallo ($5,800 FD / $5,100 DK)

In three games for the Pistons thus far, Diallo has been wildly effective coming off the bench. Despite the low 18.9% usage rate, Diallo is rocking a 14.7/6.3/2 scoring line on 68.2% shooting, scoring effectively by slashing to the rim at will. Considering Washington plays at the fastest pace in the NBA while lacking interior defense, this is a prime spot for Diallo to fly up and down the court with Russell Westbrook pushing the pace on the other end. GPP + Cash Ruled out. Replace with Saben Lee.

Devonte’ Graham ($5,600 FD / $6,400 DK)

In the last four games, Devonte’ Graham has been a consistent part of both the Hornets rotation and offensive game plan. Sporting a 26% usage rate in that span, Graham is also taking 11 three-point attempts while firing them at a 45.5% clip. Averaging 21 PPG across 31 MPG, he is simply too cheap across both sites tonight. GPP + Cash

Also Consider:

  • Victor Oladipo ($7,800 FD / $7,500 DK)
  • Josh Hart ($5,300 FD / $5,700 DK)

Small Forwards

Kawhi Leonard ($9,600 FD / $9,300 DK)

No Paul George for the Clippers tonight means another game where Kawhi Leonard leads the charge on both ends of the floor. In eight games without PG13, Kawhi has a 32.1% usage rate and a 27.5/7.1/5.1 scoring line on 51.5% shooting, where he takes over 20 FGA per game. One of the best plays on tonight’s NBA slate considering there is no game environment that will be more competitive than LAC/DEN. GPP + Cash

Gordon Hayward ($7,000 FD / $7,900 DK)

The second Hornet featured, along with Terry Rozier as a third under the “Also Consider” tag, Brooklyn’s defense will be a prime spot for us to attack on tonight’s NBA slate. Enter Hayward, who is fresh off a 26/11/6 performance against Washington, who poses the same defensive threat as Brooklyn – none whatsoever. GPP + Cash

Danilo Gallinari ($5,200 FD / $5,200 DK)

With John Collins out tonight for the Atlanta Hawks, Gallo will likely get the spot start at PF; in four games as a starter in his Hawks tenure, Gallo is scoring 21.3 PPG to go along with 6 RPG across 31.6 MPG. Shooting an effective 54% from the field, he’s a great way to get exposure to an elite game environment in a matchup versus San Antonio. GPP + Cash

Also Consider:

  • Jimmy Butler ($9,000 FD / $9,000 DK)
  • Rui Hachimura ($6,000 FD / $6,800 DK)
  • Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4,200 FD / $5,400 DK)

Power Forwards

Pay Up: Zion Williamson ($9,500 FD / $9,200 DK) and Tobias Harris ($8,300 FD / $8,700 DK)

Mid: Jerami Grant ($6,600 FD / $7,200 DK)

Punt: Isaiah Stewart ($4,200 FD / $4,100 DK)

Centers

  • Nikola Jokic ($11,000 FD / $10,600 DK)
  • Clint Capela ($8,500 FD / $7,700 DK)
  • Robin Lopez ($3,800 FD / $3,800 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

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We’re switching it up today as I grab the cash game article for the weekend. With players settling into their new teams after the NBA trade deadline, some will have a greater impact than others, but the new rotations are something so keep an eye on moving forward. It’s a weekend edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Luka Doncic ($10,800 FD / $10,800 DK)

Luka gets the nod here over Russell Westbrook, but if Bradley Beal ends up getting ruled out, you can’t go wrong with either one if paying up at PG. Having sat out yesterday’s game versus Indiana, Doncic comes into this one with fresh legs and in a scenario where Kristaps Porzingis could end up sitting out. Sporting a 35.7% usage rate and a 28.6/8.3/9.1 scoring line on 48.2% shooting this season, there is no safer play at the position, especially versus a New Orleans team that ranks 29th in the NBA against primary ball handlers.

Ben Simmons ($8,200 FD / $8,800 DK)

We talk about getting different in a few spots for cash games, and Ben Simmons may just be the piece I flock to tonight. By now, you all know I love to play primary ball handlers versus the Clippers, and this is a serious mismatch for whomever matches up versus the Aussie; Simmons sees a 2.3% usage bump with Embiid off the floor and will be relied upon heavily on the glass and to get teammates involved early and often to secure a victory.

Tomas Satoransky ($4,500 FD / $4,800 DK)

We’ve yet to see what Chicago’s new rotation will look like with the acquisition of Nikola Vucevic, but one player that should stand firm in the starting 5 is Sato. Sporting a mere 15.3% usage rate in his last seven games, all of which he started, Sato has been contributing 10/2.7/6.1 on 52% shooting while averaging 26 DK points per contest.

Also Consider:

  • Russell Westbrook ($11,100 FD / $11,000 DK)
  • John Wall ($8,200 FD / $8,400 DK)
  • Jaylen Nowell ($4,400 FD / $5,000 DK)

Shooting Guards

Donovan Mitchell ($8,500 FD / $9,000 DK)

The premier pay up at the SG position is not a necessity, but Donovan Mitchell is in a great spot versus Memphis tonight. Coming into tonight’s tilt with five straight games of 27 points or more, whereby four of which he scored 30 or more, Mitchell will be able to take advantage of a Grizzlies unit that sits 9th in the NBA in pace ranking. Sporting a 35% usage rate in these last five games, Mitchell has been on a tear, averaging 33/5.2/6.2 on 52.7% shooting.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($5,300 FD / $5,300 DK)

One of the highest owned plays on the NBA slate is a good one – NAW will likely see another spot start for the Pelicans as Lonzo Ball has already been ruled out, and he is a must in our cash lineups. In his past three starts with Zo out, NAW has a 21.7% usage rate and averages just over 17 PPG across 34.7 MPG. Eat the chalk and move on.

Ben McLemore ($4,000 FD / $3,200 DK)

Another heavy chalk play, Ben McLemore will be a must in our NBA cash lineups if he gets another start here tonight. With the Houston Rockets essentially running an 8-man rotation for the foreseeable future as Christian Wood, John Wall, and Eric Gordon take turns resting and sitting games out left and right, McLemore’s opportunity will only grow. If Wall sits, I’m fine with both McLemore and Porter Jr. in my cash lineups, but the former takes priority based on the salary saving he presents us with; he played 35 minutes yesterday and took 15 shots. Lock and load.

Also Consider:

  • Paul George ($8,300 FD / $8,300 DK)
  • Collin Sexton ($7,300 FD / $7,200 DK)
  • Tyrese Haliburton ($5,600 FD / $6,200 DK)

Small Forwards

Jaylen Brown ($8,000 FD / $8,200 DK)

You can only play one of Brown and Tatum tonight, if getting exposure to Boston at all, and Brown gets the nod because of position scarcity. Having only two games below 20 points in his last eight, JB has been scoring at will, and gets a rebuilding OKC squad who will be without SGA tonight. Sporting a 30% usage rate in those last eight games, JB has averaged 25.3/6.1/3.3 on 49.4% shooting while taking 20 FGA per game; logging heavy minutes for one of the thinnest rotations in the NBA, JB is a solid mid-range play for our cash lineups.

Larry Nance Jr. ($6,500 FD / $6,800 DK)

Getting a Cleveland piece in our NBA cash lineups tonight can be the spot we allow ourselves to get different, beginning with Larry Nance Jr., who takes the starting PF role away from Kevin Love, who has been riddled with injuries for a ridiculous amount of time now. The Cavaliers get a favorable matchup versus the worst defense in the league in Sacramento, and with Nance dominating the glass in his last few, his floor is relatively safe for us to consider him at this price point.

Malik Beasley ($5,700 FD / $6,800 DK)

Re-entering the Minnesota lineup after missing quite some time, we don’t know what Malik Beasley’s role will look like in this one. However, what I can tell you is that this is a guy that carries the Timberwolves while KAT was sick with COVID and D’Angelo Russell was injured; Beasley was playing over 33 MPG and averaging over 20 PPG on 45% shooting; Edwards likely takes the hit, and should Beasley be a full-go, he is way too cheap and will be strongly considered for my NBA cash lineups. Look for an update in Discord, but if Wall is ruled out and Kevin Porter Jr. is ruled in, he’ll take Beasley’s spot here.

Also Consider:

  • Brandon Ingram ($8,300 FD / $8,000 DK)
  • Kevin Porter Jr. ($6,800 FD / $6,300 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100 FD / $10,800 DK)

I do prefer paying up for other studs, but there is no denying the fact that Giannis can be an NBA slate’s highest scorer any time he takes the court. Sporting a 32.3% usage rate on the season and 1.66 FPPM, his floor is as safe as it gets.

Jayson Tatum ($8,500 FD / $8,400 DK)

I mentioned how we can get exposure to Boston’s offense for our NBA cash lineups tonight considering their opponent is focusing on their future and their abundance of draft picks, and Jayson Tatum’s price has taken a huge hit. While he hasn’t been as consistent as Jaylen Brown in the past two weeks – hence why I prefer JB for cash – Tatum has shown the ability to knock down shots and run the offense, as seen by his last outing, where he dropped 34 on Milwaukee, needing only 18 shots to do so.

Jerami Grant ($7,300 FD / $7,600 DK)

Playing at the fastest pace in the NBA and ranking 27th in defense rating, Washington is an opponent we will continue to pick on throughout the season. Enter Jerami Grant, the rock of the Pistons’ forgettable season, who has been logging 35.6 MPG for Detroit while averaging over 23 PPG on a 27.9% usage rate.

Others to Consider:

  • Zion Williamson ($8,400 FD / $8,700 DK)
  • Aleksej Pokusevski ($4,800 FD / $5,200 DK)

Centers

  • Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,900 FD / $9,700 DK)
  • Nikola Vucevic ($9,700 FD / $9,500 DK)

Also Consider:

  • Jarrett Allen ($6,900 FD / $7,700 DK)
  • Robert Williams ($5,600 FD / $6,600 DK)
  • Moses Brown ($5,400 FD / $5,900 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

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A big thank you to Brian and Adam for covering me the last few days! It’s NBA trade deadline day, people. Giddy up – the news will be coming in at an absurd rate today, but the good thing is that the 3pm EST deadline gives us more than enough time to figure things out. Pop in Discord for some further analysis on rotations, but for now, enjoy Thirsty Thursday’s edition of the Gems.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Russell Westbrook ($11,100 FD / $10,900 DK)

With the level of uncertainty surrounding certain teams and their level of activity at the NBA trade deadline, we can turn to Westbrook as the guaranteed star power needed in our lineups. In 12 games at MSG in his career versus the Knicks, Westbrook averages a whopping 23.8/8.5/7.9 on 44.1% shooting. His recent form has been stellar as well; even with last game’s stinker, Westbrook has a 35.2% usage rate in his last six games, averaging 28.2/10.2/12.8 on 44.9% shooting.

De’Aaron Fox ($8,900 FD / $8,700 DK)

On the flipside of a back-to-back, Sacramento finds themselves in an up-pace matchup versus the second-fastest team in the NBA, the Golden State Warriors. A certain point guard is one that I love playing in these types of matchups, and the backcourt tandem of Fox/Haliburton is on the top of my priority list. In his last games, Fox has really turned up the heat: he’s sporting a 31.6% usage rate and is scoring at will with 29.2 PPG on 50.3% shooting.

Also Consider:

  • Damian Lillard ($9,400 FD / $10,000 DK)
  • Jordan Poole ($6,200 FD / $6,100 DK)

Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal ($9,200 FD / $9,200 DK)

A day ending in ‘y’, we play the leading scorer in the NBA. While battling some inconsistency with his shot since the NBA All-Star break, Beal remains a lethal scorer that can take over a game at any time, and that is exactly what we need in our lineups on a nightly basis. Take advantage of the price discount and enjoy the show versus a Knicks team that allows over 40 FPPG to opposing shooting guards.

Tyrese Haliburton ($5,700 FD / $6,000 DK)

The second Sacramento King that I’ll be using in my NBA lineups tonight was my favorite to challenge LaMelo Ball for Rookie of the Year – I think those futures bets are looking just fine at the moment. Back to playing a ton of minutes for Luke Walton, Haliburton has a 20.7% usage rate in his last two, averaging 22.5 PPG on 63% shooting. He doesn’t need a ton of opportunity to do damage as proven by his 13 FGA per game, but in a matchup versus a fast-paced Warriors squad, watch how efficiency and increased opportunity work magic together tonight for the kid.

Also Consider:

  • Paul George ($8,200 FD / $7,800 DK)
  • Buddy Hield ($6,400 FD / $6,500 DK)

Small Forwards

Jimmy Butler ($9,500 FD / $9,000 DK)

As Miami has been ramping up their playoff push, they have been led by none other than their star in Jimmy Butler. Averaging 24.1/8.2/6.1 on 56.4% shooting in the month of March, Butler’s 28.2% usage rate hasn’t slowed him down one bit and now finds himself in a matchup versus a Portland defense that ranks 29th in the NBA in efficiency.

Harrison Barnes ($6,000 FD / $6,300 DK)

An underrated revenge scenario for a potential trade candidate ahead of today’s 3pm deadline, we’ll need to keep an eye on the status of Harris Barnes and if he is a Sacramento King come tip-off. A model of consistency for the Kings this season, the 36 MPG leads the team and is fifth-most in the entire NBA; his 17% usage rate won’t wow you, but the 16.1/6.6/3.7 scoring line shows how consistent he’s been for the Kings thus far and has an exploitable matchup on the wing versus Oubre Jr. and Wiggins.

Also Consider:

  • Kawhi Leonard ($9,700 FD / $8,800 DK)
  • Rui Hachimura ($5,200 FD / $5,800 DK)

Power Forwards

Julius Randle ($10,200 FD / $10,200 DK)

He’s the entire Knicks offense and is having the best season of his NBA career. Julius Randle is priced up, and when you think of using 10K in salary, one of the last names you probably think of is Randle – but he’s worth it. Sporting a 28% usage rate on the season, Randle is averaging 23.3/10.9/5.9 on 47.2% shooting and just dropped 37/6/2 in 38 minutes on the Wizards a few days ago.

Bam Adebayo ($8,000 FD / $8,000 DK)

Sporting a 25.7% usage rate in his last three games, Bam is an underrated pay-up option for tonight’s NBA slate. Firstly, he’s seeing Enes Kanter’s defense – or lack thereof. Secondly, Bam has instantly become a secondary offensive option while the Heat figure out their guard rotation after injuries to Goran Dragic; averaging 21.7 PPG in his last three, Bam is shooting 56% from the field and will have a field day on both ends of the court tonight.

Others to Consider:

  • Draymond Green ($7,000 FD / $7,700 DK)
  • Marcus Morris ($5,000 FD / $4,800 DK)

Centers

  • Richaun Holmes ($8,000 FD / $7,300 DK)
  • Mitchell Robinson ($6,200 FD / $5,100 DK)

Also Consider:

  • Dwight Howard ($5,400 FD / $5,500 DK)
  • James Wiseman ($4,200 FD / $4,800 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

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This is March, baby! The NCAA tournament gets underway tonight and I could not be more excited, but there is also a great NBA slate to tackle with a ton of star power and value to go with it early on. Fajita Friday’s editions of the Gems, folks, let’s make it a great one.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Luka Doncic ($10,400 FD / $10,700 DK)

On the tail end of a back-to-back and playing their third game in the last four days, Portland will have their hands full with Luka Doncic. While we were lucky enough to get Luka at 10% or lower in two matchups versus the Clippers, who struggle mightily versus primary ball handlers, there is no guarantee we get him at that kind of ownership here tonight. Nonetheless, he’s averaging 27.5/8.3/12.3 in four games since the NBA All-Star game, sporting a 35.7% usage rate and gets a 29th ranked Portland defense tonight who allow over 51 FPPG to opposing primary ball handlers in their own right.

Chris Paul ($6,900 FD / $7,500 DK)

On the second half of a back-to-back against Minnesota, Phoenix is looking to avenge yesterday’s 119-123 loss versus one of the worst teams in the NBA. While both CP3 and Devin Booker showed out, Karl-Anthony Towns was too much for them to handle on the inside, and Anthony Edwards had a career-high 42 points. After dropping 17/7/5 yesterday, I expect CP3 to control every possession tonight and be the calming influence on both ends of the court rather than getting into a run ‘n gun playing style with Edwards and Towns again here tonight.

Also Consider:

  • Jordan Poole ($4,600 FD / $4,500 DK)
  • Nico Mannion ($3,500 FD / $3,200 DK)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($11,300 FD / $11,000 DK)

Yes, Orlando is not exactly the opponent we wish to see Brooklyn face off against to get ceiling games out of James Harden and Kyrie Irving, but the raw points are too much to pass up on tonight’s NBA slate. With a plethora of injuries to the Orlando backcourt, Harden’s matchup is as good as it gets, and while Evan Fournier is a capable defender in his own right, the Nets will continue running a ton of switches to get Harden away from him. If this is a blowout, it’s because The Beard drops yet another triple-double.

Devin Booker ($7,500 FD / $7,800 DK)

Sporting a 34.7% usage rate since the NBA All-Star break, Devin Booker gets another matchup versus his good friend, Karl-Anthony Towns. While the narrative is strong in this one, so has Booker’s play been of late: he’s averaging a robust 29.3 PPG in his last four, shooting 53.7% from the field on over 20 shot attempts per game.

Also Consider:

  • Victor Oladipo ($8,100 FD / $8,300 DK)
  • Anthony Edwards ($7,100 FD / $7,100 DK)
  • Caris LeVert ($5,600 FD)

Small Forwards

Jaylen Brown ($7,500 FD / $8,000 DK)

Getting a piece of the Boston offense tonight is going to go overlooked because of the amount of star power available at the top of the pricing grid. Any time Sacramento’s defense, or lack thereof, is on an NBA slate, we need to take notice; they consistently rank last in the league in defensive rating and defensive efficiency, and Boston’s trio of Tatum/Brown/Walker will be able to take advantage. Enter JB, who has three straight games of 24 or more points and is scoring at will right now for the Celtics.

Michael Porter Jr. ($6,500 FD / $6,700 DK)

One of the riskier options in NBA DFS, most will flock to Larry Nance Jr. in this spot, and rightfully so – Cleveland is decimated with injuries to Taurean Price and Kevin Love, while Andre Drummond continues to sit out. However, MPJ has been hot since the All-Star break, scoring 20 or more points in all four games and securing eight or more rebounds during that span. With Tomas Satoranksy bolstering the Bulls’ defense with Zach Lavine’s improved play, we need to attack Chicago on the inside and on the wings, and MPJ can get more volume than anticipated because of it.

Also Consider:

  • Jimmy Butler ($10,600 FD / $9,500 DK)
  • Larry Nance Jr. ($5,300 FD / $5,200 DK)

Power Forwards

Domantas Sabonis ($9,300 FD / $9,500 DK)

Day ending in y, play the most underrated player in the NBA. With Myles Turner struggling with foul trouble as of late, Sabonis has been getting more run at the ‘5’, where he’ll be up against a much-improved defensive player in Bam Adebayo, but I’m not concerned. Sabonis’ ability to get on the outside and run the pick ‘n roll will allow for the Pacers to avoid the tandem of Butler and Adebayo on the inside all night long.

Jayson Tatum ($8,900 FD / $8,900 DK)

Similarly to how I pointed it out in the Jaylen Brown blurb, getting exposure to this Boston offense will interest me leading up to tip-off, as Sacramento’s defense has been abysmal all season long. Ranking dead last in the NBA in both defensive rating and defensive efficiency, Sacramento has no answer for the leading scorer and most utilized option on the Boston offense, Jayson Tatum, who leads the team with 25.3 PPG and a 30.5% usage rate.

Others to Consider:

  • Jerami Grant ($7,000 FD / $7,200 DK)
  • Jae’Sean Tate ($5,100 FD / $5,400 DK)

Centers

  • Nikola Jokic ($11,000 FD / $10,600 DK)
  • Nikola Vucevic ($9,700 FD / $9,900 DK)

Also Consider:

  • Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,600 FD / $9,400 DK)
  • Robert Williams ($5,700 FD / $5,800 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

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Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems on St. Patrick’s Day, what a time to be alive. Another juicy NBA slate is on tap, with star power that includes the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, James Harden, Steph Curry, Bradley Beal, and more. There will be a ton of value to open up, so let’s lock that down together in Discord to see which studs we build around. An early look in the day, let’s get to who the candidates are.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Luka Doncic ($10,200 FD / $10,700 DK)

The slate begins with a certain MVP candidate against the same opponent he faced just a few days ago. Here is my writeup from that game versus LA:

Primary ball handlers versus LA? One of the best players in NBA DFS? Check and check. Luka Doncic comes into this one as one of, if not the player with the highest upside, and there is no chance I’m passing up this spot for him. On a team featuring Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, it was Lonzo Ball that did all the damage to the Clippers less than 24 hours ago, dropping 20/8/5. I’ve been attacking this spot all season long, and with a 31.7% usage rate in two games since returning from the ASG break, where he is averaging 21.5/8.5/12 on 44.4% shooting, my lineups begin with the face of the Mavericks franchise tonight.

Luka dropped 70 DK points that night at 10% ownership. That is all.

Steph Curry ($9,400 FD / $9,800 DK)

Curry has a cakewalk of a matchup tonight should John Wall and/or Victor Oladipo had been playing, but with both ruled out of this one, it gets even easier for the greatest shooter in NBA history. Sporting a 32.4% usage rate on the season, I’d expect nothing less than a ceiling game from Steph in this one versus a Rockets team that plays at the fourth fastest pace in the league, with the Warriors coming in as the second fastest, while the Rockets allow opponents to shoot 37.5% from deep, ranking them 23rd in the NBA.

De’Aaron Fox ($9,100 FD / $9,200 DK)

Washington comes into tonight’s tilt ranking first in the NBA in pace of play, and a certain Sacramento point guard does that well – very well, indeed. Sporting a 30.1% usage rate on the season, Fox can score in bunches and dish the rock with the best of ‘em, making him a premier target on both sites tonight. The game environment is elite, and Washington allows nearly 50 FPPG to opposing primary ball handlers.

Malcolm Brogdon ($7,000 FD / $7,200 DK)

In an elite game environment versus one of the worst defenses in the NBA since the James Harden trade, Malcolm Brogdon will shoulder a heavy workload on both ends of the court tonight. Tasked with guarding one of James Harden or Kyrie Irving on every possession, the former ROY out of UVA has really turned it up since the All-Star break, averaging 26/6/4.7 on 55.8% shooting with a usage rate of 27.7%.

Also Consider:

  • Kyle Lowry ($8,300 FD / $8,600 DK)
  • Ben Simmons ($7,900 FD / $8,900 DK)

Value Gems:

  • Sterling Brown ($4,800 FD / $4,600 DK)
  • Reggie Jackson ($4,300 FD / $5,100 DK)
  • Tomas Satoransky ($3,900 FD / $3,800 DK)
  • Jordan Poole ($3,600 FD / $3,500 DK)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($11,000 FD / $10,900 DK)

Not much can be said about James Harden’s offensive contribution to the Brooklyn Nets since his arrival from Houston. Sporting a 27.2% usage rate in 26 games for the Nets, Harden has averaged a ridiculous 25.1/9/11.3 on 48.6% shooting, including 38.7% from deep and 87.2% at the charity stripe. Carrying the offensive load once again tonight with Kevin Durant sidelined, Harden will play heavy minutes and is always a threat to lead any NBA slate in scoring.

Bradley Beal ($9,500 FD / $9,300 DK)

Remember when everyone was mad about Beal’s production out of the NBA All-Star break and didn’t play him last slate? That was funny. All the leading scorer in the league did was drop a cool 37/6/5 on 68.4% shooting against Milwaukee, and tonight he gets the Sacramento Kings, who rank – wait for it – dead last in defensive rating.

Donte DiVincenzo ($4,600 FD / $5,200 DK)

A relatively affordable option on both sites tonight, Donte DiVincenzo won’t wow you with his statistics; he doesn’t score a ton, but won’t rack up 10+ assists, but what he does do is fill a box score. With how thin the Milwaukee Bucks rotation is on a nightly basis, DiVi plays a ton of minutes, meaning his 0.9 FPPM doesn’t scare me – he’s a low usage player, sporting a 17.3% clip since the NBA All-Star break, but he’s averaging a near double-double with 11 PPG to go along with 9.3 RPG.

Caris LeVert ($4,400 FD)

A FanDuel special tonight, Caris LeVert finds himself playing in a game versus the very organization that traded him in the James Harden blockbuster. In a mere two games with the Pacers this season, LeVert is sporting a 25.3% usage rate and is acting as a secondary scorer to the Brogdon/Sabonis pick ‘n roll combination, scoring 15 PPG to go along with 4.5 RPG and 2 APG. Shooting at a 44% clip, LeVert is finding his form and is simply too cheap to not consider rostering yet again tonight on FD.

Also Consider:

  • Paul George ($7,600 FD / $7,900 DK)
  • Buddy Hield ($6,500 FD / $6,400 DK)

Value Gems

  • Devin Vassell ($3,500 FD / $3,200 DK)
  • Mason Jones ($3,500 FD / $3,100 DK)

Small Forwards

Kawhi Leonard ($9,300 FD / $8,700 DK)

After a slow start last game versus Dallas last time out, Kawhi absolutely poured it on in the second half, scoring 14 of his 22 points in a game where he only came off the court for a total of eight minutes. Scoring 22 or more points in six straight games, he’s still too cheap on both sites for a player of his magnitude.

Norman Powell ($7,700 FD / $7,500 DK)

Stormin’ Norman’s price has quickly increased after being underpriced for the few games that the Raptors were without the trio of OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, and Fred VanVleet. While Siakam may make his way back into the lineup today, both OG and FVV are unlikely to play in this one versus the worst team in the NBA. In 26 games as a starter this season, Powell has scored in bunches, averaging 22.6 PPG on 52.4% shooting and will draw the lesser coverage of the Pistons’ wings, as Jerami Grant will flank onto Siakam all night long.

Kevin Porter Jr. ($6,300 FD / $6,800 DK)

Outside of Christian Wood, who makes his debut after a ridiculously long layoff, the Rockets have no offensive weapons tonight in the absence of John Wall, Victor Oladipo, and Eric Gordon. In 4 games with the Rockets this season since being called up from the G-League, KPJ is sporting a 26.9% usage rate and averages 18.3/3.5/8.3 on 42% shooting. After yesterday’s game, his price somehow went down – don’t question it, just take advantage.

Rui Hachimura ($5,000 FD / $5,800 DK)

On a tear in his last two, Rui Hachimura is worth noting down at a surprisingly deeper-than-usual SF position. Sporting a lowly 23.2% usage rate in his last two games, this Rui has dropped 25.5 PPG to go along with 9 RPG in a whopping 37.5 MPG. Playing heavy minutes for a Wizards wing/frontcourt rotation is huge considering their carousel at the center position, take the sure-fire player who has taken 18 shots per game in his past two while shooting 55.6% from the field and 50% from deep against the worst defense in the NBA.

Also Consider:

  • Jaylen Brown ($7,300 FD / $7,700 DK)
  • KJ Martin ($5,000 FD / $5,200 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400 FD / $11,000 DK)

Three straight triple-doubles for Giannis and the Bucks are pushing for the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference. Without Joel Embiid guarding the paint tonight, there will be no slowing down Antetokounmpo in this one, who has a 33.2% usage rate and a 31.9/12.4/7.1 scoring line across his last 10 contests.

Domantas Sabonis ($9,200 FD / $9,400 DK)

The most underappreciated player in the NBA takes on a vulnerable Brooklyn frontcourt tonight and I could not be more excited. Sporting a 24.5% usage rate on the season, Sabonis piles on the minutes for the Pacers, 36.4 per game to be exact, while dropping a season average scoring line of 20.5/11.2/6.3 on 52.6% shooting. He can score in bunches, attack the glass on both ends of the floor, and dish the rock on the outside as much as he wants in this one, which will be fast-paced and feature little defense; Brooklyn ranks 8th in the NBA in pace of play and allows 50.2 points per game in the paint, good for 27th in the league.

Tobias Harris ($7,800 FD / $8,400 DK)

If you’re flirting with the midrange tonight, give Tobias Harris a look. While he will certainly not be in my DK lineup, and most likely not in my FD one, it does not mean we can’t consider the second strongest scoring option on a Philadelphia team without Joel Embiid. Seeing a bump in usage rate, scoring rate, and assist rate, Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons have a chance to prove that they can hold onto the 1 seed without their MVP.

Draymond Green ($6,700 FD / $6,600 DK)

Similarly to Curry, Draymond has a cake walk of a matchup versus the likes of Christian Wood and Justin Patton. While Houston only allows 24 assists per game, I’m expecting Green to control both the perimeter and the interior in tonight’s tilt since he is not overly outsized. Averaging 8.4 APG on the season, good for 7th in the NBA, a game with the league’s second and fourth fastest squads is one to attack tonight, and it begins with the Curry/Green combination.

Others to Consider:

  • Jayson Tatum ($9,000 FD / $9,200 DK)
  • Thad Young ($6,600 FD / $6,000 DK)
  • Jae’Sean Tate ($5,000 FD / $5,400 DK)

Value Gems

  • Nemanja Bjelica ($4,500 FD / $3,700 DK)
  • Daniel Theis ($4,400 FD / $4,100 DK)
  • Isaiah Stewart ($4,000 FD / $3,900 DK)
  • Bobby Portis ($4,000 FD / $4,500 DK)

Centers

  • Nikola Jokic ($11,200 FD / $10,800 DK)
  • Jarrett Allen ($7,500 FD / $7,700 DK)
  • Richaun Holmes ($6,900 FD / $6,700 DK)

Also Consider:

  • Myles Turner ($6,100 FD / $5,900 DK)
  • Jakob Poeltl ($5,600 FD / $5,900 DK)
  • Robert Williams ($5,600 FD / $5,600 DK)

Value Gems

  • James Wiseman ($3,800 FD)
  • Drew Eubanks ($3,500 FD / $3,100 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

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Tonight’s NBA slate is already filled with intrigue as the Clippers are on the second half of a back-to-back, meaning the statuses of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are in question, in addition to Serge Ibaka already being ruled out, as they take on Luka Doncic and the Mavericks. Injuries have riddled the Knicks’ backcourt, plenty of star power between Giannis, Joker, and Luka, and the value to go with it! It’s Mojito Monday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Luka Doncic ($10,200 FD / $10,600 DK)

Primary ball handlers versus LA? One of the best players in NBA DFS? Check and check. Luka Doncic comes into this one as one of, if not the player with the highest upside, and there is no chance I’m passing up this spot for him. On a team featuring Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, it was Lonzo Ball that did all the damage to the Clippers less than 24 hours ago, dropping 20/8/5. I’ve been attacking this spot all season long, and with a 31.7% usage rate in two games since returning from the ASG break, where he is averaging 21.5/8.5/12 on 44.4% shooting, my lineups begin with the face of the Mavericks franchise tonight.

Chris Paul ($6,800 FD / $7,800 DK)

I could have easily slotted in Russell Westbrook or Steph Curry in here, but Chris Paul is simply too cheap today, especially on FD. While the shooting efficiency has been subpar since returning from the NBA ASG, this is normal for almost every player due to the week-long absence from regular play, and now with two games under his belt, he’s set for a ceiling game in a matchup versus Ja Morant, who is one of my favorite defenders to pick on. Averaging nearly three turnovers per game, Ja will be in tough versus the Point God, who sits fifth in the league in assists per game with 8.8.

Also Consider:

  • Malcolm Brogdon ($6,700 FD / $7,400 DK)
  • Reggie Jackson ($4,600 FD / $5,200 DK)

Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal ($9,800 FD / $9,400 DK)

Right back to the well. You’re going to tell me: “Ghost, he’s been terrible the past two games!” And that is exactly why nobody will play him. After finally getting a rest game the other day, Beal is ready to go against Giannis and the Bucks tonight, who struggle mightily versus the 3-point shot: the Bucks sit 26th in the NBA in points allowed per game from behind the arc, including having opponents shooting over 37% from deep. By no means is Bradley Beal a lethal 3-point shooter; he only takes seven three-pointers per game, but the fact that he can score in every other which way he wants to will keep Milwaukee defenders on ice, and there’s no stopping the league’s scoring leader tonight.

Immanuel Quickley ($4,600 FD / $5,600 DK)

I’m cheating my system of avoiding the sub 5k price range on FD today because of how much interest I have in IQ tonight. With Elfrid Payton doubtful to play and Derrick Rose already ruled out, it is Quickley that will see 25+ minutes against Brooklyn’s defense, or rather, the lack thereof. With a 1.09 FPPM and assuming the role of primary ball handler over Frank Ntilikina and his lackluster offensive skills, give us a ton of minutes of IQ and enjoy the show.

Also Consider:

  • Donte DiVincenzo ($4,500 FD / $5,100 DK)
  • Caris LeVert ($4,100 FD)

Small Forwards

Khris Middleton ($7,400 FD / $8,100 DK)

By no means is he the priority when looking at the Bucks rotation, for obvious reasons, but slotting the Robin to Giannis’ Batman in our NBA lineups is never a bad option if not playing the latter. Averaging just over 20 PPG on the season, Middleton is looking to be apart of the exclusive 50/40/90 club this season, and while his volume limits his upside, his efficiency is second-to-none in this price range at a thin SF position.

RJ Barrett ($5,700 FD / $6,200 DK)

Thibs gonna Thibs – ride or die with some New York Knicks in your lineups tonight, folks. In two games since the NBA ASG, RJ Barrett has been thriving offensively and is coming off a career-high 32 points; his 29.2% usage rate inspires confidence in his game, where he is also averaging 27/5/2.5 on 58.3% shooting, including 50% from behind the arc. In a matchup versus Brooklyn’s atrocious defense, the trio of Quickley/Barrett/Randle intrigues me immensely.

Also Consider:

  • Michael Porter Jr. ($6,700 FD / $6,800 DK)
  • Josh Richardson ($5,100 FD / $5,400 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100 FD / $11,100 DK)

Washington managed to not only stay in the game versus the Bucks just a few days ago, they almost won. Without Bradley Beal. Who is back in the lineup tonight? Do the math people – Giannis dropped a 70-fantasy-point triple-double in that one and there is no stopping his push for MVP in the latter stages of the NBA season.

Julius Randle ($9,200 FD / $9,800 DK)

The third piece of our Knicks trio is the one with the highest ceiling of them all. The Knicks can be up by 20, down by 20, in a 150-point game or a 240-point game, Julius Randle simply does not leave the court. Sporting a 27.5% usage rate on the season with 1.275 FPPM, Randle will be relied upon heavily to dominate the interior on both ends of the floor tonight. He plays over 36 minutes per game, is averaging a cool 22.9/11/5.7 on 48% shooting, and is fresh off a 26/12/12 tripe-double versus OKC.

Others to Consider:

  • Domantas Sabonis ($9,100 FD / $9,600 DK)
  • Jerami Grant ($7,300 FD / $7,500 DK)

Centers

  • Nikola Jokic ($11,000 FD / $10,700 DK)
  • Jonas Valanciunas ($7,400 FD / $7,600 DK)

Also Consider:

  • Mason Plumlee ($6,100 FD / $6,100 DK)
  • James Wiseman ($3,900 FD)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

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Thirsty Thursday’s edition of the Gems is a big one – we’re combining both cash and GPP plays in the same article, so look for clarification at the end of each blurb on where to play the individual player. A massive NBA slate after yesterday’s 2-gamer – let’s get to it!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Damian Lillard ($10,000 FD / $10,700 DK)

Dame Dolla entered the NBA ASG break on a tear and he’ll be looking to continue the Trail Blazers’ surge as he awaits the return of teammates CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic from their respective injuries. Entering this one with a whopping 35% usage rate with McCollum out of the lineup, Dame averages a cool 31.1 PPG on 44.7% shooting in these games, taking 22 shots per game, including 11.9 from behind the arc. While the Suns will be a daunting task, the Blazers will only go as far as Dame can take them in this one. GPP Play.

Kyrie Irving ($9,000 FD / $9,600 DK)

Kyrie and Harden will have their hands full tonight versus a disappointing Celtics squad. While they have been wildly underperforming the entire NBA season, the Celtics get the much-awaited return of Marcus Smart tonight, who will prove to be a catalyst on both the offensive and defensive end of the ball. Enter the shifty Irving, who entered the All-Star break with a 30.3% usage rate in his past five games, scoring 25.4 PPG on 44.1% shooting on 22.2 FGA per game. GPP Play.

Trae Young ($8,800 FD / $9,900 DK)

With how much Kyle Lowry will handle on the offensive end tonight, he will be completely gassed on the defensive side of the ball. In addition, Atlanta runs an offense that involves getting Trae Young into favorable switches on a dive to the basket or a pick ‘n roll to Clint Capela – the issue for the Raptors tonight is that he won’t be switching onto Fred VanVleet, rather, he’ll be on Terence Davis or Bembry. Yikes. Sporting a 32.6% usage rate on the season, the Hawks’ push for the playoffs begins right now, and this is as close to a must-win as it gets. GPP Play.

Chris Paul ($7,500 FD / $7,800 DK)

If you’re looking for a mid-tier option on tonight’s NBA slate that is both safe and has enough upside to warrant consideration, CP3 is your guy. While Oladipo is fine in this spot, a perfect pivot to get over the field is Paul, who has been on a tear this season: on a 22.3% usage rate, CP3 has been the anchor to the Suns’ run to glory this season, averaging 16/4.7/8.8 on 48.6% shooting. In a matchup versus Dame and the Trail Blazers, CP3 gets as favorable of a matchup as it gets on this slate; Portland struggles mightily versus primary ball handlers, allowing over 51 FPPG to the position. Cash + GPP Play.

Shake Milton ($4,200 FD / $5,300 DK)

With both Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons missing tonight’s game versus Chicago, Shake Milton will likely slide into the starting 5 and run point for the Sixers tonight. With Tobias Harris getting the largest bump in usage rate, Milton’s rise to is notable, nearing a 31% usage rate in his own right. In his only start this season, Milton dropped a cool 24/1/7 on 61.5% shooting, and gets a favorable matchup versus Chicago tonight, who rank near the bottom of the NBA in FPPG allowed to opposing combo guards. Cash + GPP Play.

Also Consider:

  • John Wall ($8,200 FD / $8,200 DK)
  • De’Aaron Fox ($8,500 FD / $9,100 DK)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($11,500 FD / $11,000 DK)

No KD? Yes, James Harden. Simple as that, folks. The salary is top tier, but so is his upside on a large NBA slate that will keep his ownership lower than it should be. While the Celtics do not push the pace to the extent that the Wizards, Warriors, and Timberwolves do, it’s Brooklyn’s 7th-fastest offense in the NBA that will dictate this one. With Boston likely countering with a combination of Robert Williams and Daniel Theis at the ‘5’ with Tatum at the ‘4’ in crunch minutes since Smart is back in the lineup, Harden will have ample opportunity to push the pace in this one, having averaged 29.3/9.7/11 on 51.4% shooting in his last nine games before the break. Cash + GPP Play.

Paul George ($7,800 FD / $8,500 DK)

Will the Warriors keep this one close enough to keep PG13 and Kawhi in the game? I believe so, considering how much LA struggles versus primary ball handlers, and they face a pretty good one tonight in Steph Curry. Having the ASG break to recover from multiple injuries, PG13 will be fresh for tonight’s tilt versus the Warriors, who play at the second-fastest pace in the NBA. Averaging 23.7/6.1/5.4 on 49.9% shooting with a 28.8% usage rate on the season, a big second half begins tonight for PG and the Clippers. GPP Play.

Victor Oladipo ($7,700 FD / $8,200 DK)

With the Rockets now missing Christian Wood, David Nwaba, and Danuel House to injury, in addition to Boogie Cousins being let go off the roster, the entire offense now falls onto John Wall and Victor Oladipo. In 15 games with Houston, Dipo is sporting a 30.3% usage rate and carries a 19.9/4.9/4.7 scoring line on 38.7% shooting – far from impressive, but the workload will be heavy tonight, and we can eat the ownership in cash. Cash Play.

Also Consider:

  • Devin Booker ($7,700 FD / $8,000 DK)

Small Forwards

Kawhi Leonard ($9,300 FD / $8,900 DK)

Similarly to what was written for PG13, can the Warriors keep this one close enough to get Kawhi into the 30+ minute range? That’s the primary concern when evaluating PG13 and Kawhi tonight, but there is no denying that they are both mightily underpriced for their respective ceilings. Sporting a 29.8% usage rate on the season, The Klaw can easily drop 30 tonight – but if playing him, you need to stack him with Curry to make it worth your while. GPP Play.

Norman Powell ($7,500 FD / $7,200 DK)

Toronto remains without Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and OG Anunoby tonight, meaning Stormin’ Norman gets another start here for the offensively starving Raptors. In 3 games before the NBA ASG break with the same key players missing, Norm averaged 30.3 PPG on 59.6% shooting on a 27.4% usage rate. The price is high for someone that is solely reliant on his scoring ability, but facing a Hawks team that cannot play defense this season without De’Andre Hunter in the lineup, he finds himself as a key component to our cash builds. Cash + GPP Play.

Also Consider:

  • Kevin Porter Jr. ($4,900 FD / $3,200 DK)
  • Danny Green ($4,100 FD / $4,700 DK)
  • Matisse Thybulle ($3,500 FD / $3,100 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300 FD / $11,100 DK)

He’s in play on every NBA slate, but tonight, there is nobody – with the exception of James Harden – that carries the same ceiling as Giannis, including Luka Doncic. Sporting a 35.5% usage rate in his last seven games before the NBA ASG break, Giannis was on a tear that he’ll look to continue tonight, where he was averaging 33/12.6/5.7 on 55.9% shooting, versus a Knicks team that misses the interior defense of Mitch Robinson tremendously. Cash + GPP Play.

Zion Williamson ($9,000 FD / $9,300 DK)

Being the laughingstock of the NBA ASG is never fun, especially when you’re making your first appearance with the best players in the league. How quickly people forget how good Zion has been this season, though, averaging 25.6 PPG to go along with 7.2 RPG and 3.4 APG on a ridiculous 61.4% shooting. Brandon Ingram will always cut into Zion’s ceiling until the Pelicans can figure out who they real alpha of the team is, but this price entices me versus Minnesota struggling interior defense, who allow a ridiculous 48.7 points in the paint per game and over 58 FPPG to opposing big men. GPP Play.

Jayson Tatum ($8,900 FD / $9,400 DK)

Bigs versus Brooklyn? Is Jayson Tatum even considered a big? Tonight, he sure is. Sporting a 30.4% usage rate on the season, Tatum has taken yet another step in his professional career, averaging nearly 25 PPG on 43.7% shooting, taking over 20 shots per game for the Cs. With Brooklyn’s interior defense being the worst in the NBA since the roster overhaul, sky’s the limit for the former Duke Blue Devil tonight. GPP Play.

Tobias Harris ($6,900 FD / $8,100 DK)

Our cash game builds start with Tobias Harris tonight, who will be tasked with shouldering a heavy load on offense for the Sixers in the absence of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. Having increases in usage rate, assist rate, and scoring rate with these two out of the lineup, Harris averages just above 1.2 FPPM in a 150+ minute sample size – that’s good enough at his price tags on both sites, and we can eat the chalk and move on to the rest of our NBA lineups. Cash Play.

Others to Consider:

  • Jae’Sean Tate ($4,700 FD / $5,500 DK)

Centers

GPP

  • Nikola Vucevic ($9,900 FD / $10,400 DK)
  • Richaun Holmes ($6,800 FD / $6,500 DK)

Cash

  • Kelly Olynyk ($4,500 FD / $5,100 DK)
  • Dwight Howard ($3,800 FD / $5,300 DK)

Also Consider:

  • Justin Patton ($4,000 FD / $4,900 DK)
  • Deandre Ayton ($7,200 FD / $6,900 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

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Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems covered one of my favorite NBA slates of the season; the Toronto Raptors are down to an 8-man rotation after getting hit with the COVID bug, James Harden makes his return to Houston, John Wall’s comments about Harden wanting out are top of mind, Dame versus Steph out in Portland, there’s a certain rookie battle out in Minnesota between Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball, and two former ROY candidates in Donovan Mitchell and Ben Simmons face off in Philadelphia after Mitchell’s hoodie stunt is still getting media attention to this day. Let’s ride!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Damian Lillard ($10,100 FD / $10,600 DK)

Dame Time on his home court versus familiar foe, Steph Curry? Yes, please. Lillard has been on a tear since backcourt partner CJ McCollum went down with injury, and while the latter was having a stellar campaign, maybe his injury is what Dame needed to get things going; and man, has he done exactly that. 23 or more points in eight straight games for the face of the Trail Blazers franchise, Dame has a 36.9% usage rate during that span, averaging 31.3/4.3/10.8 on 44.3% shooting. His scoring is through the roof, he’s tallying up nearly 11 assists per game, and shooting the ball 24 times per game and now finds himself facing a Warriors defense that ranks second in the NBA in pace of play and bottom 10 in 3PM and 3PA.

Steph Curry ($9,900 FD / $9,900 DK)

On the flipside of the same game, if you’re playing Dame, you need to highly consider pairing him with Curry. Sporting a 32.3% usage rate on the season, Curry is approaching the 30 PPG clip, scoring at will with 29.5 PPG thus far to go along with 5.4 RPG and 6.4 APG. After a slow start to the season, his volume has increased drastically, as has his efficiency, making him an elite play on this NBA in one of the fastest games on the slate.

Also Consider:

  • Kyle Lowry ($8,200 FD / $8,100 DK)
  • LaMelo Ball ($8,600 FD / $9,200 DK)
  • John Wall ($8,600 FD / $8,300 DK)
  • De’Aaron Fox ($8,000 FD / $9,000 DK)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($11,200 FD / $11,000 DK)

James Harden makes his return to Houston. Play him. That is all.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,200 FD / $8,800 DK)

Strictly a FD play to those not considering one of the options below, including punting SG2 with a chalky Terence Davis or THT, SGA finds himself in an underrated spot on tonight’s NBA slate. Facing a Mavericks team that may be without Luka Doncic tonight, SGA will have ample opportunity to strike on the offensive end at sub 5% ownership; Dallas ranks 27th in defensive efficiency and seemingly find themselves in close games even against the weakest of opponents.

Also Consider:

  • Donovan Mitchell ($8,300 FD / $8,500 DK)
  • Anthony Edwards ($6,400 FD / $6,900 DK)
  • Terence Davis ($3,500 FD / $3,400 DK)

Small Forwards

Normal Powell ($6,800 FD / $6,700 DK)

Stormin’ Norman will have all the scoring opportunity possible in a game like this. Not only are the Raptors down to 8 players in a thin rotation, but they’re missing key offensive components in Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, and Pascal Siakam, leaving the majority of the workload to Powell and Lowry. Already sporting a 23.7% usage rate when starting this season, there is no data to indicate how much it will increase with all three of FVV, OG, and Siakam off the floor, but it will surely be near 30%, leading to more than enough opportunity to pay off his price tag versus the worst team in the Eastern Conference.

Derrick Jones Jr. ($5,100 FD / $5,400 DK)

Rather than just indicating you all to punt SF2 on FD today, which is surely the plan to jam in other studs at premium positions, DJJ is someone that I chose to write up because of his playing style in the game environment he finds himself in. The usage rate is low at 11.9% with Dame, Trent, and Kanter all taking shots before he will, but what he does excel in is fast-paced games; the Warriors play at the second-fastest pace in the NBA and DJJ is someone that has high enough upside in the steals and blocks categories to warrant consideration on FD, where they are three points apiece.  

Also Consider:

  • Sadiq Bey ($5,100 FD / $5,700 DK)
  • Malik Monk ($4,900 FD / $5,700 DK)

Power Forwards

Domantas Sabonis ($9,200 FD / $9,700 DK)

Rocking a 25% usage rate for the Pacers this season, I’m thrilled to see Sabonis get the nod to the NBA ASG. He logs heavy minutes on a nightly basis and is now up to 36.4 MPG, where he’s averaging 21.2/11.3/5.9 on 52.9% shooting. The price is steep, but Jarrett Allen’s defense is non-existent, and with how bad PF is on DK seeing as Claxton, Boucher, and others are only center eligible, he may be in my main lineup yet again.

Draymond Green ($7,600 FD / $7,400 DK)

After only logging 13 minutes in a blowout loss to the Lakers a few nights ago, Draymond will be fresh and ready to go here versus a vulnerable Portland defense. Aside from last game due to blowout, Green has been playing at an elite level for the Warriors, nearing a triple-double every night and leading the charge on defense, as usual. In a game where he can not only dominate Enes Kanter on the defensive side of the ball, but also rack up assists in an up-tempo game and crash the glass, his upside is ridiculously high in this spot.

Others to Consider:

  • Chris Boucher ($6,600 FD / $6,400 DK)
  • Nicolas Claxton ($4,100 FD / $3,300 DK)

Centers

  • Nikola Vucevic ($9,900 FD / $10,300 DK)
  • Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700 FD / $10,000 DK)

Also Consider:

  • Montrezl Harrell ($6,400 FD / $5,500 DK)
  • Justin Patton ($3,800 FD / $4,000 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

After multiple requests, I will also be adding NBA player props to the end of the article. These props will be the ones I am eyeing early on in the day, so please look for an update in Discord and on the livestream at 5:45pm EST.

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 33.5 PRA
  • Draymond Green OVER 7.5 rebounds
  • Draymond Green OVER 8.5 assists
  • Kyle Lowry over 35.5 PRA

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

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Taco Tuesday’s edition of the Gems has to be one of my favorites! An exciting NBA slate that sees a juicy matchup between Memphis and Washington right at 7pm lock, let’s dive in to see who we’re surrounding the rest of our lineups with.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Russell Westbrook ($9,600 FD / $10,100 DK)

Do we absolutely need Westy on this slate? Not necessarily, but I will have one of he or Beal in my main lineup – take a guess which one it will be. Nonetheless, this is an elite game environment where Westbrook can easily triple-double; the Wizards play at the fastest pace in the NBA while ranking 25th in defensive efficiency – if they want to win games like they have been as of late, it will be on offense, not on defense. Enter their backcourt duo of Westbrook and Beal, with the former having collected seven triple-doubles in his last ten games, with the other three missed by a single rebound or assist. Averaging 20.2/11.3/10.6 with a 31.5% usage rate during Washington’s surge, the volume is there for Westbrook to set the tone early in the night.

Ja Morant ($7,100 FD / $7,000 DK)

On the flipside of the same game between the Wizards and the Grizzlies is the sophomore PG that is looking to make waves in a new Memphis system. Since Morant’s arrival, gone are the days of the Grit’ & Grind Grizzlies and in are the young, fast-paced kids. While Memphis ranks 14th in pace this season, they have no issue playing at a ridiculous speed, as seen by their 105.3 pace ranking last season, good for 6th in the NBA. Sporting a 28.3% usage rate on the season, Morant will have ample opportunity to lead the offense in transition and take advantage of a turnover prone Westbrook.

Also Consider:

  • Kemba Walker ($6,800 FD / $7,300 DK)
  • Goran Dragic ($5,400 FD / $5,600 DK)

Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal ($10,200 FD / $9,700 DK)

Every single NBA slate, the field refuses to play the best scorer in the league. Ok. On a ridiculous run that can be attributed to his entire season, Beal has a 34.6% usage rate in his past 12 games, where he’s averaging 33.2 PPG to go along with 5.9 RPG and 5.1 APG. He’s taking just under 23 shots per game, so you’d think his efficiency is lower than most, right? Wrong. Beal is shooting a ridiculous 50.7% from the field and 93.1% from the free throw line. Lock and load!

Paul George ($7,900 FD / $8,400 DK)

This game has peaked my interest for our NBA GPPs tonight. What it lacks in pace or defensive rating statistics we typically look for; it makes up with star power. Both Kawhi and PG13 are in great spots tonight, especially if Jaylen Brown sits this one out. I’m heavily targeting the MEM/WAS game as my stack of the night, but have no issue with getting exposure to the 1-2 Clippers punch, where an underpriced George takes the nod on FD after getting 38 minutes for the first time since returning from a two-week absence early in February. The statistics haven’t been pretty, but coming off a game where he logged heavy minutes and shot the ball 21 times, I’ll beat the field to a Paul George ceiling night while the others chase game logs.

Also Consider:

  • Dillon Brooks ($5,200 FD / $5,300 DK)
  • Immanuel Quickley ($5,100 FD / $4,800 DK)

Small Forwards

Kawhi Leonard ($9,600 FD / $8,800 DK)

Nobody is guarding Kawhi tonight. While Jayson Tatum flashed defensive upside during his time at Duke, maybe it’s his offensive responsibility to the Celtics that is too great to focus all his energy on defense or that his defensive game just hasn’t transitioned to the NBA as much as he has hoped, amongst other possibilities as to why he isn’t an avoidable defender, especially when a player of Kawhi’s magnitude is on the other side of it. Having scored 25 or more points in 7 of his last 8, Kawhi has a 31% usage rate during that span, where he’s shooting 52.9% from the field on 19.6 FGA per game.

Jimmy Butler ($9,500 FD / $9,200 DK)

Not only is he the defensive catalyst for the Heat, but he is also contributing in every aspect of their offense since his return to the lineup. Jimmy Butler has been a triple-double machine over the past month, averaging 21.9/8.7/8.7 on 44.2% shooting and 84.8% from the free throw line. Facing the 24th ranked Hawks defense, who average over 14 turnovers per game, will give Butler opportunities to flourish on both ends of the court tonight.

Also Consider:

  • Mikal Bridges ($5,500 FD / $5,300 DK)
  • Justice Winslow ($4,400 FD / $3,900 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300 FD / $11,000 DK)

Two teams with bonified superstars that need to run a tight rotation to win a game facing one another for the late-night hammer with the second highest total on the NBA slate? Sign me up. Sporting a 38.5% usage rate in his last four games, Giannis has averaged a ridiculous 37.3 PPG in this span, shooting 56% from the field while taking nearly 23 shots per game. His 12.5 RPG are standard by now considering Milwaukee essentially has given up on Brook Lopez’s presence in the paint, and his defensive upside is huge on any given night.

Jayson Tatum ($9,300 FD / $9,400 DK)

This is a brutal matchup for the face of the Celtics franchise, but if they want any chance in beating LA tonight, Tatum needs to go bonkers. In a previous meeting this season, the Celtics were without Jaylen Brown, and while Paul George was missing for the Clippers, he won’t be guarding Tatum tonight regardless – Tatum dropped a cool 34/7/2 on a whopping 27 FGA. By no means that he is in for a repeat performance, but it’s indicative of just how important Tatum is to the Celtics winning this game.

Others to Consider:

  • Brandon Clarke ($5,800 FD / $4,900 DK)
  • Kyle Kuzma ($5,300 FD / $5,800 DK)

Centers

  • Nikola Jokic ($11,000 FD / $10,800 DK)
  • Jonas Valanciunas ($7,000 FD / $7,200 DK)

Also Consider:

  • Robert Williams ($5,300 FD / $4,600 DK)
  • Kelly Olynyk ($4,400 FD / $4,600 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

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Crushed another NBA slate yesterday with the field flocking to new news rather than taking advantage of an 8-man rotation in Charlotte – perks of the Win Daily discord chat! With today’s slate comes more intrigue in the form of a thin San Antonio rotation and plenty of good spots for bonified superstars. It’s Mojito Monday’s edition of the Gems – see you at the top.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Damian Lillard ($10,100 FD / $10,400 DK)

Coming into this one with seven straight games of 24 or more points, Dame gets a soft matchup versus LaMelo Ball and the Hornets tonight. Sporting a ridiculous 37.5% usage rate over his last seven, Dame has averaged 32.4/4.3/10.9 on 45% shooting during this span, including 24.4 FGA per game and 12.7 3PA per game. Facing a Hornets team that allows the second-most three-pointers per game in the NBA at 15.1, tap your wrist every time he hits a 3 tonight because it’s Dame Time.

Dejounte Murray ($8,400 FD / $8,100 DK)

With the majority of the Spurs team still in COVID protocol, Dejounte Murray instantly becomes one of my favorite plays on the board. I mean, even if they were all in, I’d still play him against Brooklyn: Murray comes into this one with a 28% usage rate over his last three games, seeing 33.7 MPG and put up a 23.7/9/6.3 scoring line on 50% shooting. While DeRozan’s presence in the lineup with keep his ownership down, DDR will see more minutes at the ‘4’ and leave all the backcourt touches to Murray in a pace up spot versus one of the NBA’s worst defenses.

Also Consider:

  • Kyrie Irving ($9,000 FD / $9,100 DK)
  • LaMelo Ball ($7,900 FD / $8,700 DK)

Shooting Guards

Donovan Mitchell ($8,300 FD / $8,600 DK)

Even in the event that Mike Conley makes his return to the Jazz lineup tonight, Donovan Mitchell is on my radar for NBA GPPs. Brian has been attacking the Pelicans backcourt for quite some time now, and with Mitchell in the fold, there is no reason not to continue doing so; the Pelicans have been recently torched by Dejounte Murray, Saben Lee, Chris Paul, and Damian Lillard, and with Mitchell coming off back-to-back 30-point performances, he’ll dominate this one for another Jazz W.

Collin Sexton ($7,100 FD / $7,500 DK)

While Victor Oladipo certainly warrants the SG2 tag on today’s NBA slate, we’re going on the flipside of the same game with a player who will come at a tenth of the ownership in Collin Sexton. Coming into this one with eight straight games of 20 or more raw points, Sexton has been logging heavy minutes on a nightly basis for the Cavaliers. Sporting a 27.6% usage rate across 39.2 MPG in his last eight, Sexton has been a scoring machine, averaging 25 PPG on 47.7% shooting, including 19.1 FGA per game. With Dipo trying to show out as he looks to increase his trade value, he’ll have the ball in hands aplenty, and while this will result in offensive production, it will also result in a faster pace and more steals for Sexton, where he’ll score in transition all night long.

Also Consider:

  • Victor Oladipo ($7,600 FD / $7,700 DK)
  • Terry Rozier ($6,800 FD / $8,000 DK)

Small Forwards

This position is purely punt for me – no one above $5,000 on FD stands out to me, and we need to roster two SFs. You know the drill – I don’t write up value plays because I use the model to determine which one will work best for my lineup construction. Unless paying up for Brandon Ingram ($7,800 FD / $8,400 DK) against one of the best defensive units in the NBA or Evan Fournier ($6,800 FD / $6,700 DK) at a ridiculous price, there is no target here above $5,000 that will capture enough upside to win a tournament, including a ridiculously high-owned Michael Porter Jr. ($6,500 FD / $7,000 DK).

Power Forwards

PJ Washington ($6,200 FD / $6,200 DK)

One of two PFs I never thought I would write up, PJ Washington suddenly becomes viable on an NBA slate like yesterday’s and again tonight’s not only because the Hornets are down to a thin rotation, but because they’re all in on a small-ball lineup. While Cody Zeller or Bismack Biyombo have been getting the start, the Hornets quickly shift Washington to the ‘5’ with Hayward or Bridges (depending on if Hayward is active or not) at the ‘4’ with a trio of guards in LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Devonte’ Graham (if active) or Malik Monk. Coming off a 42/9/2/2/2 game versus Sacramento less than 24 hours ago, we’ll have to monitor his ownership and the health of Zeller/Hayward, but attacking a Portland interior defense that allows over 55 FPPG to opposing big men is certainly a spot I’m intrigued by.

LaMarcus Aldridge ($5,600 FD / $6,200 DK)

PFs I never thought I’d write up: Part 2/2. While his price is too high on DK for me, the $5,600 tag on FD is too cheap for as reliable a piece that LMA is. Let us not forget that this is the same man that was 6th in scoring of the 2010s decade – 6th, people. Give me 20-25 minutes of LMA in an 8-man rotation against a Brooklyn Nets interior that ranks last in the NBA since the acquisition of James Harden and we’re good to go here. He’s way past his prime, but LMA is still rocking a 22.7% usage rate across 26.5 MPG, scoring 14.3 PPG on 46.9% shooting.

Others to Consider:

  • Domantas Sabonis ($9,600 FD / $10,100 DK)
  • Thad Young ($6,600 FD / $6,100 DK)

Centers

  • Nikola Jokic ($11,000 FD / $10,800 DK)
  • Nikola Vucevic ($9,800 FD / $10,200 DK)

Also Consider:

  • Joel Embiid ($10,800 FD / $10,600 DK)
  • Jarrett Allen ($7,900 FD / $8,500 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

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