Ghost

Atlanta stole Game 1 in Milwaukee behind Trae Young’s 48/7/11 but tonight, we turn our attention back to the Western Conference Finals, where LA hosts their first game at home in a decisive Game 3. With the Suns up 2-0 early on, they seemingly have a stranglehold on the series, and Chris Paul’s return to the lineup makes it that much more difficult for the Clippers tonight. It’s an NBA showdown, but it’s a slate nonetheless; it’s Thirsty Thursday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

We have two previous game to refer to when feeling out how both rotations will play out tonight, but before we get deep into the respective rosters, let’s analyze our candidates for our captain spot on this NBA showdown slate. On the Phoenix side of the ball, Deandre Ayton is poised to build on his Game 2 performance with the addition of Chris Paul back into the lineup; Ayton will be the benefactor of the pick ‘n roll, and while Devin Booker ran it tremendously in the series’ first two games, there is no distributor like CP3. On the LA side of the ball, there is one obvious candidate and he’s the only Clipper I’d consider, and that’s Paul George. Sporting a 35.9% usage rate in the series, PG has averaged 30/5/5.5 across 40.2 MPG. If LA stands a chance at home, it’ll be on the back of their superstar.

With all the attention on the Phoenix backcourt in the series’ first two games, look for nothing to change anytime soon. While Devin Booker has been playing lights out, Cam Payne has not given the Clippers a second to breathe on defense, and Chris Paul is quite the upgrade to the fold with Payne now coming off the bench. This will open things up for the trio of Suns wings, including Jae Crowder, Mikal Bridges, and Cam Johnson for some open threes. Considering the Suns are a relatively smaller lineup, I don’t expect Paul George or Reggie Jackson to leave the court tonight, especially with how close Vegas predicts this game to be; look for few, but impactful minutes from the duo of Terence Mann and Rajon Rondo, while Ivica Zubac will look to build on his 14/11 performance in Game 2, where he logged 34 minutes and surprisingly stayed out of foul trouble early on. Marcus Morris will be counted on from behind the arc, but if the Clippers manage to get a lead of this game, expect more from defensive specialists Patrick Beverly and Nic Batum for Coach Ty Lue, who will keep things tight in an effort to get his team back into the fold.

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

Game 7 is on tap in Brooklyn on Saturday night, but tonight’s NBA slate takes center stage with two heavy favorites in Philadelphia and Utah on the ropes, with both on the road facing elimination. I’m fired up for tonight’s action, and you should be too! It’s Fajita Friday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

NBA Core Member #1: Joel Embiid ($11,200 FD / $11,000 DK)

It’s do-or-die for the Philadelphia 76ers and the man to keep them alive is none other than The Process himself. Sporting a 35.9% usage rate in the series, Embiid has averaged 32/12/4.6/1.2/2.2 and has been unstoppable. With Philly’s back up against the wall, I want the best player on the court – and on the slate – in my NBA lineups

NBA Core Member #2: The Studs

Pick your poison: the second member of your NBA lineups needs to be one of Paul George, Trae Young, or Donovan Mitchell. No, don’t try to fit multiple, because role players are nowhere to be found with a berth in the third round on the line. While Paul George and Trae Young both dominate their respective offenses, Donovan Mitchell is the only one that is mispriced and will come in much lower owned than the formers. While PG did have a remarkable 37.4% usage rate last game, where he dropped 37/16/5 in over 40 minutes of action, the only player to have a higher usage rate than Mitchell (38.2%) in these NBA Playoffs is Luka Doncic (40.4%). Should Conley return, it could complicate things – or make it easier – depending on where you were leaning. Either way, you need one – and only one – of the three.

NBA Core Member #3: Seth Curry ($6,200 FD / $5,400 DK)

We’ve been saying how good Curry has been for the 76ers through the series, and while most will look at his last game, where he dropped 36/7 on 68.4% shooting and 7 3PM, it’s really his 21.4/3.4/2 series average that has made me keep going back to the well. With such little price increase across both sites, he will surely be more popular tonight than he was two days ago, but that doesn’t take away the fact that he’s one of the best plays in the midrange of tonight’s NBA slate.

NBA Core Member #4: Clippers Role Players

From my writeup on Wednesday:

“I bet you were hoping for me to tell you which two Clippers to play alongside Paul George – is it two? Three? One? The trio of Nicolas Batum, Marcus Morris, Reggie Jackson should start alongside PG, while we await whether the fifth be one of Luke Kennard, Terance Mann, or Ivica Zubac. When selecting the “other” Clippers to play tonight, you need to decide on a few factors: the first would be to consider one, if not both pure shooter – this is Reggie Jackson and Luke Kennard – but do you play both if they are starting together? In that case, look for Patrick Beverly or Terence Mann to be your second guard. Amongst the forwards, Morris has proven to get hot from behind the arc, but his lackluster rebounding in the series leads me to give the edge to the savvy veteran in Nic Batum, who has been logging minutes both at the ‘4’ and the ‘5’ when the Clippers go small – which they will surely have to do when Zubac gets four fouls in four minutes. All in all, you need at least another Clipper in your NBA lineups tonight, and I categorize them into scorers (Kennard/Jackson), forwards (Morris/Batum), and secondary guards (Beverly/Mann).”

You’ll notice how I did not mention Ivica Zubac as a play whatsoever with my not-so-subtle shot at his foul trouble – and he played a whopping 8 minutes. I said Mann would get a ton of minutes, and he ended up starting and playing clutch minutes. While we were a slate ahead of the field, everyone knows what is now going on. However, this doesn’t change my view on the Clippers whatsoever – they’re all underpriced, and you need at least two, if not three, excluding Paul George.

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

Kevin Durant went nuclear and gave us one of, if not the best NBA Playoff performance in league history as the Brooklyn Nets take a 3-2 series lead. Tonight, we have the other two remaining series tied at two games apiece, with Utah and Philadelphia looking to take advantage of their home courts. It’s Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

NBA Core Member #1: Paul George ($9,200 FD / $8,600 DK)

Kawhi Leonard suffered a sprain to his right knee and is now unlikely to play for the remainder of this series. Paul George instantly becomes the most popular player on the NBA slate, and he’s nothing other than a lock on DK, where his price hasn’t moved despite averaging 31/6/4.5 on 47.7% shooting in his last two games, where he logged over 39 minutes per game and has a 33.7% usage rate. With Leonard sidelined tonight, it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see PG13 play as close to – if not every minute of this game.

NBA Core Member #2: Donovan Mitchell ($9,700 FD / $9,000 DK)

Give me the star battle in the second game of the night all day long. Donovan Mitchell has simply been electric all NBA Playoffs long, averaging 32.9/3.5/5.1 on 46% shooting in 8 games for the Jazz. Sporting a 39.7% usage rate, his 4.6 3PM/game is second in the league behind only Damian Lillard, who averaged 5.8 in his first round series versus Denver. He’s scoring at will and looks to give Utah a stranglehold on the series.

NBA Core Members #3 and #4: Clippers Role Players

I bet you were hoping for me to tell you which two Clippers to play alongside Paul George – is it two? Three? One? The trio of Nicolas Batum, Marcus Morris, Reggie Jackson should start alongside PG, while we await whether the fifth be one of Luke Kennard, Terance Mann, Patrick Beverly, or Ivica Zubac. When selecting the “other” Clippers to play tonight, you need to decide on a few factors: the first would be to consider one, if not both scoring guards – being Reggie Jackson and Luke Kennard – but I’m not a fan of playing both if they are starting together considering how much PG is going to soak up on the offensive side of the ball. In that case, look for Patrick Beverly or Terence Mann to be your second guard, who are more active on the glass and can distribute the ball far better than both Kennard and Jackson. Amongst the forwards, Morris has proven to get hot from behind the arc, but his lackluster rebounding in the series leads me to give the edge to the savvy veteran in Nic Batum, who has been logging minutes both at the ‘4’ and the ‘5’ when the Clippers go small – which they will surely have to do when Zubac gets four fouls in four minutes. All in all, you need at least another Clipper in your NBA lineups tonight, if not two, and I categorize them as followed: scorers (Kennard/Jackson), forwards (Morris/Batum), and secondary guards (Beverly/Mann). The fact that all of these secondary Clippers are so cheap likely makes the field have at least three of them plus Paul George, if not four plus Paul George in some contests, which is a big mistake. Don’t overlook consistent contributors on the rest of the NBA slate, such as Joe Ingles, who are floating at the same price range as these guys.

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

Nailed the Trae Young call yesterday with the Hawks taking Game 2 in the ‘A’, while Kawhi Leonard and Paul George got the job done for the second straight game to make their series with Utah a best-of-3. Tonight, we have an NBA showdown with plenty of good contests on both sites and money to be made; it’s Taco Tuesday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

The best way to begin your lineup building for NBA showdown slates is with your captain spot. Tonight, we have four to five possible candidates, although I will be planting my flag on a few to chase the upside that the construction gives us. On the Milwaukee side, the one and only captain I am considering is Giannis Antetokounmpo for obvious reasons; the Greek Freak leads the Bucks with a 37.2% usage rate in the series’ first four games, where he’s averaged 29.8/12/3.3 on 54.2% shooting. On the Brooklyn side of the ball, the two pay up options I’m interested in are obviously Kevin Durant and, yes, James Harden, with the latter coming at a significant discount. Don’t trust Harden’s hamstring to last the whole game? Well, here we are, playing NBA showdowns, so anything goes – personally, as much as Brooklyn wants this win, they wouldn’t risk Harden if he wasn’t close to 100%, so it’s all systems go for me on getting exposure to the best ball handler in these NBA Playoffs. I shouldn’t have to tell you what KD has done this series, in addition to the entire playoffs; the All-NBA talent has a 34.7% usage rate on the series, averaging 29.8/9.3/4.8 on 45.8% shooting. If you’re punting captain – may the odds be ever in your favor – but Jeff Green gets the nod here as the sneaky option, having played nearly 27 minutes off the bench in his return to action, dropping 8/5/1 and gives Brooklyn a different look on offense to throw Milwaukee off.

To round out our NBA rosters tonight, I’ll be largely avoiding the likes of Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, not because they’re bad plays, but because I prioritize the Big 3 listed above. The Bucks have had an underrated interior presence in Brook Lopez, but the inflated price tag requires him to produce much more on offense than he has been this series, averaging a mere 9.5/8.3 across 30 MPG. It’s a toss up between the likes of Blake Griffin and Bruce Brown in the midrange, but I lean toward the former, who has been much more active on offense, with the return of Harden putting Brown’s offensive role into question.

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

The Brooklyn/Milwaukee game was absolute ‘cheeks but the Utah/LA game was a thriller, where we saw Donovan Mitchell pull out another victory for his team and now heads back to LA up 2-0. Today’s NBA slate sees two underdogs return back home, as Denver looks to bounce back from being down 0-2 in the series, whereas Trae Young and the Hawks are looking to take advantage of their home court in the ‘A’. It’s Fajita Friday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

NBA Core Member #1: Chris Paul ($8,200 FD / $7,100 DK)

After nursing a shoulder injury through the first round, CP3 is back and healthy, leading the charge for the Phoenix Suns. His 18.9% usage rate through the series’ first two games does him no justice, because CP3 has been playing some of the best ‘ball these NBA Playoffs have to offer: averaging 19/5.5/13 across 33.1 MPG for the Suns, is this the year the veteran finally gets what he deserves?

NBA Core Member #2: Joel Embiid ($11,000 FD / $10,300 DK)

Right back to the well with The Process: Embiid was a member of the Core 4 last time, and he led the slate in scoring while powering the Sixers to a win. Tonight, the NBA MVP finalist heads to the ‘A’ with a 39.5/11/3 scoring line across the series’ first two games, logging over 36 MPG despite his knee injury. If you go Joker here, I’m cool with it, but Embiid is my guy – if you get both, all the power to you.

NBA Core Member #3: Kevin Huerter ($5,300 FD / $4,700 DK)

With De’Andre Hunter now done for the season, both Kevin Huerter and Danilo Gallinari will be forced to play important minutes for the Hawks off the bench. While Bogdanovic is the main guard at the ‘2’, Huerter’s minutes in the rotation give him a much easier matchup while also being both G/F eligible on DK. With 17.5 PPG off the bench through the series’ two games, I’m riding the hot hand over Gallo on tonight’s NBA slate.

NBA Core Member #4: Mikal Bridges ($6,100 FD / $4,900 DK)

SF is beyond terrible tonight on FD, making Bridges as close to a lock as there is, despite the inflated salary. On DK, there is no need to necessarily force him in there, but with few options in the 5k range, Bridges stands out above the rest: I’ve said how good of a matchup he has against MPJ time and time again, and his 20.2% usage rate is reflective that he will be more than involved in offense yet again to provide some stability to our NBA lineups.

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

Phoenix took the second of two games at home to go up 2-0 on Denver, and CP3 gifted us with another vintage performance while having zero turnovers. In tonight’s NBA action, we get to see if the real Milwaukee Bucks stand up, while Kawhi and the Clippers look to slow down Donovan Mitchell and the Utah Jazz. It’s Thirsty Thursday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

NBA Core Member #1: Kevin Durant ($10,700 FD / $10,600 DK)

Sporting a 31.5% usage rate in these NBA Playoffs, Kevin Durant has propelled the Brooklyn Nets to a 6-1 record, including being two wins away from a berth in the Eastern Conference Finals. Averaging 32/7.3/3.4 in 37 MPG is impressive, but the 55/50/91 shooting line is simply absurd – it’s KD’s world, and we’re all just living in it.

NBA Core Member #2: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300 FD / $11,100 DK)

It’s do-or-die for the Bucks tonight – I want the best player on that side of the ball. Sporting a 32.9% usage rate through the series’ first two games, Giannis has posted 26/11/4 on 61.5% shooting and will need to put his best foot forward if the Bucks don’t want to go down 0-3; he has the highest ceiling on the entire NBA slate, and will Brooklyn being the public’s favorite, he’ll come in lower owned than he should be.

**Update: Just make sure to have at least 2 of Giannis, KD, Mitchell**

NBA Core Member #3: Mike James ($4,800 FD / $3,800 DK)

Top value on the board for this NBA slate and he needs no explanation. James has logged 26 and 21 minutes, respectively, in James Harden’s absence, scoring over 20 DK points in each outing.

NBA Core Member #4: Bruce Brown ($5,900 FD / $4,200 DK)

Far less of a necessity on FD, where he is priced up accordingly, but he’s certainly a lock for me on DK. Averaging nearly 25 DK PPG in his last two, Brown gives us a clear path to a good floor/ceiling combination for such a cheap price on this NBA slate.

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

Donovan Mitchell got the job done for the Utah Jazz in Game 1 while Philadelphia came storming back to tie the series at a game apiece heading back to Atlanta. Tonight’s NBA slate is a showdown rather than a two-gamer, but the process remains the same, as we look to continue our playoff heater. It’s Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Tonight’s NBA slate is a sole showdown, but there are great contests to play on both sites. The most important “position” in your showdown lineups is your captain – representing 1.5x and 2x the points on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. Tonight, there are a few options for you, depending on how low you want to go in terms of value plays; Nikola Jokic represents the only option on the Denver side of the ball for me, while Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton are all viable on the Suns side.

Sporting a 35.7% usage rate in the 2021 NBA Playoffs, the league’s MVP certainly needs no explanation for the captain spot – but what does your build look like with him there? Being the most expensive option on the slate, I lean to the Suns’ side of the ball on DK, while the fixed FD pricing system makes Joker as close to a lock in the captain spot as there is. Now, deciding between CP3, Booker, and Ayton can be tricky – CP3 looks to be back to at the top of his game after a shoulder injury bothered him in the opening round, while Devin Booker can be the one to drop 40 raw points at any time. Right now, I lean CP3, after his 21/6/11 performance in Game 1, while Ayton’s sure-fire double-double is the safest option, but lacks option given his minute-for-minute matchup versus Jokic.

Rounding our roster is obviously just as important as choosing our captain, and the player pool is fairly small for me yet again tonight. On the Denver side of things, Will Barton is looking to make his return to the lineup tonight, which will give the rotation a new look and improvements on the defensive side of the ball. Conditioning is a key factor, and while he is not in play for me tonight, it could limit Devin Booker’s offensive scoring. Although Austin Rivers knows the Phoenix system well, I lean toward Monte Morris in the trio of guards, including Facundo Campazzo; having taken 10 shots off the bench last game, Morris is there to provide a spark on offense – and nothing else – which is perfect for an NBA showdown lineup. On the Phoenix side of the ball, we can go back to Mikal Brides, who has a great matchup versus Michael Porter Jr., while Jae Crowder has been getting hot from behind the arc, having three or more 3PM in his last four games, dating back to Game 4 versus the LA Lakers.

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

The Bucks are ‘cheeks. That’s it, that’s the tweet. Much better NBA slate on tap for today, although we did crush yet again yesterday despite Khris Noodleton throwing up bricks all game long; Discord says it’s Playoff Ghost season and, man, it’s got a nice ring to it. It’s Taco Tuesday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

NBA Core Member #1: Donovan Mitchell ($9,000 FD / $8,200 DK)

Say it with me folks: primary ball handlers versus the Clippers! We did it all NBA season long, and we saw what Luka Doncic just did to LA. While Ty Lue finally figured it out by Game 6, I doubt Kawhi sees minutes on Mitchell tonight like he did on Luka in the last two games, leaving ample space for Spida to take advantage; sporting a 37.4% usage rate in the first round, the fourth-year guard posted a 28.5/3/5.8 scoring line on 45% shooting, logging 30 MPG.

NBA Core Member #2: Joel Embiid ($10,500 FD / $10,000 DK)

The field will say that his knee is in bad shape, that he can’t sustain the minutes he logged in Game 1, and that he simply can’t get it done – let me paint this picture for you: Embiid plays 11 of 12 minutes in the third quarter in Game 1, where the Sixers are now down 83-99 at the end of the stretch; Embiid obviously starts the 4th on the bench after playing 11 of 12 minutes in the 3rd, where the Sixers then checked him in with just over 8 minutes remaining in the 4th where they were – wait for it – down 88-107. Opinions say he isn’t healthy – the minutes dictate otherwise when they were down 19 points with 8 minutes left. Name another play that has 60+ upside without having a career night on this NBA slate – I’ll wait.

NBA Core Member #3: Seth Curry ($5,200 FD / $5,000 DK)

I can’t lay this out in a simpler fashion: is Seth Curry my favorite play on this NBA slate? Insert Leonardo DiCaprio gif from Wolf of Wall Street – if you don’t know what that is, google it since this is a family article. However, what Curry does bring to the table is exactly what the Sixers need to win this game: shooting. Playing 36 minutes in Game 1, Curry dropped a clean 21/4/3 on a mere 12 FGA, where 9 of them were 3PA. Give me the sharpshooter to create spacing for Embiid and company tonight in a no man’s land 5K range on the price grid tonight.

NBA Core Member #4: John Collins ($6,500 FD / $5,600 DK)

Everyone knows I strongly dislike playing John Collins and rather play his opponent on the flipside of this 1 on 1 matchup. However, there are a handful of players mispriced on this NBA slate, and Collins is one of them. PF is ‘cheeks on FD, where you have a $8,800 Tobias Harris and role players like Royce O’Neale, and Collins is $1,000 cheaper than he should be on DK. Rating as the top point/$ play on the model tonight since De’Andre Hunter is questionable, this is a freebee – use the tools!

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost