Another successful slate yesterday from both a DFS and props perspective! We now turn on our attention to tonight’s 4-game NBA slate with the Thirsty Thursday’s edition of the Gems.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Damian Lillard ($9,700 FD / $10,600 DK)
Your NBA builds tonight need to start with Dame or Steph, no questions asked. Beginning with the man in Portland, Lillard is sporting a 30.3% usage rate on the season, averaging 28.7/4.8/7 on 44.7% shooting and over 19 FGA per game. With Houston ranking in the bottom third of the NBA in FPPG allowed to opposing ball handlers and the combination of Enes Kanter’s success and Christian Wood’s lackluster defense versus the pick ‘n roll, sky’s the limit for Lillard tonight.
Steph Curry ($9,800 FD / $9,700 DK)
Say hello to a huge discount off Lillard on DK and enter Curry into your lineups to not only get different, but possibly even have a higher scoring output. With Curry’s modest 16/6/8 scoring line from yesterday, I expect the majority of the field to lock in Lillard whilst considering both recency bias and the fact that CJ McCollum remains out. However, I think that’s a big mistake; taking on the Suns tonight, the Warriors will need the best shooter of all time to light it up on offense if they want to beat CP3, Devin Booker, and company in a game that Vegas has pegged as a pick ‘em.
Others to Consider:
Shooting Guards
Devin Booker ($7,600 FD / $8,300 DK)
After missing yesterday’s game versus the Thunder, Devin Booker is slated to get back into the Suns lineup tonight and finds himself in a great spot. Having a down year to his standards with only 22.9 PPG, Booker is still rocking a 29.9% usage rate across 14 games played and will be relied both on and off-ball tonight. With the Warriors ranking toward the bottom of the NBA in defense versus combo guards, Booker takes the steering wheel back from CP3 tonight.
Kendrick Nunn ($6,200 FD / $5,900 DK)
We want both Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro to miss this game to get a potential ceiling game from Nunn, but either way, he remains in my pool for NBA GPPs tonight. With Nunn playing 35.67 MPG across his last six games, his scoring talent has been on display, where he is also averaging 19 PPG. The floor is low, but with a matchup versus the likes of Reggie Jackson and Terance Mann all night, the ceiling is too high not to consider him tonight.
Others to Consider:
Small Forwards
LeBron James ($10,700 FD / $10,400 DK)
Want to get really different in GPPs tonight? Play the best player on the planet on a 4-game slate. There are barely any games tonight, and still, the field is not playing LeBron James. I understand, the price is a hefty one to pay and there are better options from a Point/$ perspective, but this may be too good of a spot to pass up on FD specifically, where you need to roster two SFs. Averaging 40/7/6 in 38 MPG in his last two, while tonight’s game may not be as competitive as those against the 76ers and Cavaliers, LeBron only needs little time to do damage.
Carmelo Anthony ($5,200 FD / $5,600 DK)
It’s nice to say Melo is a lock on an NBA slate this late into his career, and here we are. Sporting a 27.5% usage rate with both McCollum and Nurkic off the court, second on the team to only Damian Lillard, Melo will get all the volume he can handle in a secondary scoring role whilst likely getting another start for the Trail Blazers tonight. To put it into perspective, in the Blazers’ 122-125 loss to the Thunder, Dame shot the ball 22 times, while Melo had 21 shot attempts. With similar volume tonight, Melo is to go-to target in the mid-range.
Others to Consider:
Power Forwards
Anthony Davis ($10,200 FD / $8,900 DK)
AD. Under 9K on DK. Not 10K, 9K. ARE YOU JOKING DK? Whether you think this is a blowout or not, we just saw Andre Drummond post 23/16 with 5 steals and 2 blocks in 28 minutes versus the same frontcourt not even 24 hours ago. You’re telling me AD doesn’t have the talent to do the same? At 9K? I can give you all the analytics in the world, but you don’t need math to justify this one on tonight’s NBA slate.
Christian Wood ($9,500 FD / $8,700 DK)
The man that is garnering more ownership than AD on DK tonight is surely in play, but it’s a big-time woof that he’s coming in higher owned at the time of writing. For one, with the recent play of Demarcus Cousins, there is no guarantee they do not share the court together. Second, Wood has missed a ton of games and this is his first back – he says he’s 100%, but every player will. Regardless, with how bad Enes Kanter is at defending, period, let alone defending the paint, Wood, who ranks 10th in paint touches per game with 8.3, will be able to dominate the post.
Others to Consider:
Centers
Deandre Ayton ($8,300 FD / $7,800 DK)
After yesterday’s chalk flop, here we go again. We did manage to pivot away as much as we could the moment Al Horford was ruled in, as it presented an unfavorable matchup for the Suns big man. However, tonight’s NBA slate presents Ayton with a much better matchup versus a weak Warriors interior, who rank last in the league in rebounding percentage at 47.1%. Ayton, who ranks 4th in the NBA in rebounding percentage at 21.3%, will be able to feast in the paint all night long.
Enes Kanter ($6,500 FD / $7,100 DK)
A nice leverage spot off a chalky Damian Lillard, Enes Kanter will be relied upon to play heavy minutes versus both Boogie Cousins and Christian Wood tonight. A lackluster defender, Kanter presents himself as an offensive threat that averages 1.28 FPPM and a 10.5/13.5 scoring line across 27.7 MPG in 4 starts this season.
Also Consider:
Value Gems: Check the projection model here.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
The team smashed yesterday’s slate with our core notes in both articles and in Discord so we’re turning the page and keeping the streak going for Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems! A massive NBA slate tonight, we’ll be narrowing down the options quite a bit and waiting for news to firmly plant our flag to get some more wins.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Steph Curry ($9,600 FD / $9,300 DK)
Seriously? The same matchup, same MVP, same GOAT shooter at the SAME price? Don’t make it too easy for us, guys. Here’s my piece from Monday:
“One of the hardest positions to identify which stud to play is point guard. However, tonight’s decision came fairly easily when the pricing discrepancy on the two-time NBA MVP was made clear, especially on DK. With the Timberwolves ranking 6th in the league in pace and 27th in defensive rating, Curry should have his way with former teammate D’Angelo Russell all night long, making his 1.39 FPPM and 31.7% usage rate a perfect spot for our “marteau d’soir”.”
Don’t overthink this one – Steph put up 36/4/3 and 7 three-pointers for 53.5 DK just two nights ago in the same spot.
Malcolm Brogdon ($8,300 FD / $8,600 DK)
Should Sabonis miss this game for the Pacers tonight, there is another primary target that I’ll get to at the enter position in the “Also Consider” category because I much prefer to target Charlotte’s interior than their guards, but this is too good of a spot not to write up Brogdon as well. Sporting a ridiculous 1.71 FPPM with all of his teammates out, with the exception of Myles Turner, he’ll be a focal point of my NBA lineups tonight should Sabonis be ruled out.
Chris Paul ($7,400 FD / $7,600 DK)
The sample size is small considering Devin Booker has only missed one game, but it’s hard to ignore CP3’s near triple-double last time out. In a whopping 42 minutes, the Point God put up 21/9/13 on 9-for-20 shooting and only got to the free throw line twice. With CP3 formerly being a mentor to SGA, look for the master to remind the student just how good he is tonight.
Others to Consider:
Shooting Guards
Bradley Beal ($10,300 FD / $10,200 DK)
The face of the Wizards franchise, Beal only needed one game after a long layoff to get right back to what he does best: scoring. Pacing the NBA in PPG with 34.4 per outing, Beal dropped a cool 33/5/4 yesterday while shooting the ball 28 times. 28, people. Now, possibly without Russell Westbrook tonight, imagine if his volume increases even more? What if he shoots 50% from the field instead of 42.86% like yesterday? Sky’s the limit for the man with a 35.2% usage rate and a 31.3/5.3/7.7 scoring line in three games without Westbrook in the lineup.
D’Angelo Russell ($7,500 FD / $8,300 DK)
Similar to Curry, DLo finds himself in the same spot as a few days ago, where he missed the original bout with his former franchise. Here is my piece from then:
“An interesting revenge narrative for tonight’s NBA slate, DLo fits the bill to run a 1-2 game stack with Steph Curry as they do battle for our “marteau d’soir”. Sporting a usage rate just north of 30% with Karl-Anthony Towns off the floor, Russell will have ample opportunity in both the pick ‘n roll and off the ball, as the Warriors rank in the bottom-10 of the NBA to FP allowed per game to combo guards.”
I’ll gladly take the price discount and go right back to this spot, should he eventually lose the ‘Q’ tag.
Collin Sexton ($7,300 FD / $6,600 DK)
A price discount because of two bad games? No problem, I’ll gladly an underpriced Collin Sexton in a premier matchup at low ownership on tonight’s NBA slate. While my Cleveland exposure will largely come in the form of a certain center to be discussed in a bit, Sexton is surely in my player pool, having a career year under a 29.2% usage rate and having scored 20 or more points in every game this season outside of his past two.
Others to Consider:
Small Forwards
Kevin Durant ($10,700 FD / $10,300 DK)
KD versus John Collins round two? Yes, please. Facing a man who cannot breathe without fouling someone, there will be no stopping Kevin Durant tonight in both his post game and on the perimeter. While I do not anticipate for him to attack the paint given how well Capela has been playing, that’s more than fine for one of the most versatile scorers of our generation. While his price tag is a hefty one on tonight’s NBA slate, a 5x floor of 50 points is something we may just take and move on considering it will likely put him as one of the highest scorers on the slate, let alone if he hits his ceiling. Say it with me folks: John Collins on KD is no bueno.
Gordon Hayward ($8,100 FD / $7,500 DK)
I really try to stay away from players that I have no confidence in their ceiling, but Gordon Hayward has been too good to simply ignore. Leading the charge for a surprising Charlotte team, the key here, as I have pointed out before, is the minutes Hayward has been playing: having averaged 30.7 PPG in his past seven with 35 minutes or more, Hayward followed that up with a 39/9/1 outing, which also included a buzzer beating layup versus Orlando on the front end of a back-to-back, only to drop 24/5/4 with 3 steals and a block in 38 minutes the following night versus the same Magic team. Yeah, he’s in top form.
De’Andre Hunter ($5,600 FD / $6,500 DK)
An absolute stud coming out of UVA, Hunter is truly blossoming into a legitimate 3-and-D wing for these young Hawks. A player that rarely leaves the court, Hunter is averaging 32.6 minutes for Atlanta across 16 games, but with Danilo Gallinari unlikely to play in this one and Bogdan Bogdanovic continuing to nurse an injury, Hunter will be relied upon for 36+ tonight versus a fast paced Nets team in a game environment he truly thrives in. Averaging 27.5 PPG in his last two in 39 MPG, Hunter also saw a drastic increase in shot attempts to 18.5 per game, much more than his season average of 11.9.
Others to Consider:
Power Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300 FD / $10,700 DK)
With the league’s back-to-back MVP ramping things up in his past three games, we turn our attention to the Greek Freak on tonight’s NBA slate as a star to possibly build our lineups around. With a 33.8% usage rate on the season, Giannis has averaged 28.67 PPG on 58.93% shooting in his last three. Playing in more competitive environments has only benefitted the all-star, seeing 37 MPG in the same span, and he’s set to be in another one here tonight where he’ll have his way with a terrible Raptors interior since the departures of Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol in the offseason.
Zion Williamson ($7,800 FD / $7,800 DK)
Although new coach SVG is making it tough to get excited about having exposure to his Pelicans, tonight is an exception for the storied sophomore. With the Wizards down to a two-man rotation of Robin Lopez and Alex Len in the paint, there will be nobody that can stop Williamson on the inside tonight. If Davis Bertans and Rui Hachimura come back from COVID protocol, it’s an even better matchup. Look for Zion’s usage rate tonight to be much higher than his season average of 27.8%.
Aaron Gordon ($6,800 FD / $7,700 DK)
A stronger play on FD where he is much cheaper at listed at a scarce position, Gordon slides in nicely in the early stages of our NBA builds tonight. Although I do prefer his teammate listed right in the next section, Gordon is too cheap for someone who can stuff the stat sheet as much as he can in a favorable matchup versus the worst defense in the league.
Others to Consider:
Centers
Joel Embiid ($9,800 FD / $9,400 DK)
An early favorite for NBA MVP thus far, Embiid has a tough matchup versus Anthony Davis and the Lakers tonight, but these are the kinds of games he gets up for. The man known as The Process is averaging a ridiculous 27.7/11.5/2.7 stat line and contributing on the defensive end with 1.3 steals per game and 1.4 blocks per game. A 31.3% usage rate has Embiid involved early and often, and any time he is under 10K, I’ll get exposure.
Nikola Vucevic ($9,400 FD / $9,200 DK)
The forgotten about man at the ‘5’ on tonight’s NBA slate because of how loaded the position is, Vuc is in a smash spot versus the likes of Richaun Holmes and Marvin Bagley. Sporting a 28.1% usage rate and playing a hefty 33.3 MPG for the Magic, Vuc has quietly been one of the best in the league thus far, averaging 23.5/11.1/3.7 and an improved 3-point shot, where he is currently making 2.8 3’s per game on 43.5% shooting has him in play on a nightly basis.
Andre Drummond ($8,800 FD / $8,400 DK)
Cue the revenge narrative of the NBA slate. Andre Drummond faces his former franchise in Detroit and their weak interior of Mason Plumlee and Blake Griffin. While his minutes are lower than before the acquisition of Jarrett Allen, there will be no stopping a 20-20 Drummond performance tonight in the time he is on the court; Detroit ranks 28th versus big men, allowing over 58 FPPG to the position, and the price on Drummond is outright laughable.
Also Consider:
Value Gems: Check the projection model here.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.
