No Big Words. No Drawn Out Summaries. Tony “Jigsaw” Cutillo hits you with some HEAT to help you WIN.
Fantasy Football DFS Expert Stix Picks breaks down the best NFL DFS Picks for Sunday’s Main Slate. He will preview all the Week 2 games, making DFS picks and reviewing some player props and bets.
Tony “Jigsaw” Cutillo breaks down his Favorite Props for Thursday Night Football on the Plus Money Prop Train! #thursdaynightfootball #nflbetting #nflpredictions
Is there any #FantasyFootball Gold left on the Wire? Who’s the Gem of the Waiver Wire who can win your league? Fantasy Football GMs tend to overreact after week 1 and leave some gold on the wires. Tony “Jigsaw” Cutillo dives into some players to stash who could pay off HUGE dividends down the stretch.
Best Bets for Monday Night Football and all the Sportsbook Deals you need to WIN. No Big Words. No Drawn Out Summaries. Tony “Jigsaw” Cutillo hits you with some HEAT to help you WIN.
Week 1 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And we have a big game to cover as the NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers host the New York Jets and a team in win-now mode. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
Note on Quarterbacks:
I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.
You may have heard of the 49ers RB. He’s pretty good at football. So there’s no hiding that Christian McCaffrey will be used in a heavy percentage of lineups tonight. The key will be to understand how to use CMac. As much as you heard about San Fran’s D last year, the Jets were just as impressive. Because they were so good against the pass, teams often tried to exploit them in the run game. While they ended 24th in rushing yards allowed, they ended up 3rd in DVOA against the run. That’s because the Jets saw the 3rd most rushing attempts against them. New York ended up with the 10th lowest ypc, 4.1, and allowed just 14 rushing TD’s, 11th least in the league.
The good news for McCaffrey owners is that the Jets did allow the 7th most points to opposing RB’s last year. And they allowed 100-yard rushing games to three different backs that are towards the upper echelon of the league in Isaiah Pacheco, Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs. And none of those offensive lines matched up to the 49ers in run blocking grades as the Raiders were 14th, Chiefs were 16th and Giants were 30th in run blocking in 2023. San Francisco, on the other hand, was 1st in run blocking grade last year and just re-signed their star LT Trent Williams.
Christian McCaffrey’s backup entering the season looks to be Jordan Mason as Eli Mitchell hit the IR during training camp. Mason did get some touches last year and flashed with a 5.1 ypc. I think there’s value in Mason tonight based on his potential to shed some of McCaffrey’s workload.
UPDATE: Christian McCaffrey was ruled out. Move Mason up to a must play. His workload plus salary will let you afford Samuel/Hall/Wilson.
Tier 1: Jordan Mason
Tier 2: None
The Jets have one of the best defensive backfields in the league led by star CB Sauce Gardner. According to PFF, the Jets ended the season with the highest pass coverage rating in the league. Statistically speaking, the pass defense finished 2nd overall in DVOA and 2nd in pass yards allowed.
New York also imposes a good pass rush as they registered 48 sacks last season ranking in the top 10 in football. However, they are without DE Hasaan Reddick who was traded to the Jets in the offseason but has failed to report due to a contractual stalemate. So the Jets will now rely on inexperienced ends in Jermaine Johson and Michael Clemons to create pressure on the QB. One good news for the Jets is the 49ers were ranked 24th in pass block rate in 2023. And PFF rates their Offensive Line at 25th best heading into 2024. Their strength is run-blocking and they do struggle in pass-blocking. Even with the return of Trent Williams we could expect some conditioning issues and rust.
I think this is a very tough matchup for all 49er WR’s based on the great coverage skills of the Jets plus the 49ers difficultly in the pass blocking game. However, I do like Deebo Samuel because he can be used in the running game and we see that is a great place to attack the Jets. Plus with new, or inexperienced DE’s, the jet sweep could be deployed early and often. The big question mark is Brandon Aiyuk who signed late in the preseason. As with many late signees, I expect some rust. But more importantly I expect him to see a ton of Sauce tonight thus lowering his value. More often than not, Gardner did follow around the other team’s top WR each game.
With the injury to rookie WR Ricky Pearsall the 49ers will once again use Jauan Jennings as WR3. He will provide some salary relief and value tonight. But one WR to keep an eye on is rookie Jacob Cowing. HC Kyle Shannahan has great praise for Cowing stating “the game wasn’t too big for him”. The 49ers will likely use him on special teamsi ncluding punt returns.
Tier 1: Deebo Samuel
Tier 2: Brandon Aiyuk, Jacob Cowing
Punts: Jauan Jennings
Though the Jets are tough against WR’s, they are more foregiving to TE’s. That showed in the stats last year as the Jets allowed the 13th most fantasy points to opposing TE’s. The biggest showing was David Njoku’s 134 yard performance in Week 16. For those reasons as well as the Jets looking to take out WR’s, Kittle should be highly considered for your lineups and even the CPT spot.
Tier 1: George Kittle
Tier 2:
Punt/Fadeable:
Like the 49ers, the Jets have one of the most dynamic RB’s in the game in Breece Hall. In most season long fantasy drafts, McCaffrey and Hall were the first two RB’s off the board. On the surface, it could be tough sledding tonight for the Jets running game. That’s because SF allowed the 3rd least rushing yards last season. And they finished 4th in rushing defense DVOA. But as we look deeper, there are points to be had here against a great SF defense. For one, teams were often down early against SF and abandoned the run. The 49ers D saw the least amount of rushing attempts in 2023. And according to PFF, they ranked 11th in rushing defense grading last season.
And here’s another reason to be optimistic about Hall tonight, the 49ers allowed the 8th most receiving yards to RB’s last season. On average, RB’s caught 5.3 balls per game for 36 yards against SF. And Hall is not your average receiver as he finished last season with 76 catches of his own.
The Jets drafted RB Braelon Allen in the fourth round to battle with other incumbents such as Israel Abanikanda for the backup RB job. And by all accounts, Allen won that job and will see the field tonight against SF. We do expect him to give Hall a break at times and get anywhere upwards of 5 touches tonight. He would need to punch one of those in the endzone for his value to hit.
Tier 1: Breece Hall
Tier 2: Braelon Allen (Punt Play)
The Jets are starting year two of the Aaron Rodgers experiment. And because of his tragic season ending injury in Week 1 of the 2023 season, we never got to see how good he could make WR Garrett Wilson. Instead, Wilson had to see passes from bad throwers such as Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemien. And his production was still very good as Wilson finished as WR 24 in 2023. What was most notable is that he was 4th in targets with 168. So now, the hope is, that he’ll have many more balls on target that he can actually catch because it’s Aaron Rodgers. And he can now turn into the top 10 WR we’ve all been waiting for.
The other good news is that the 49ers ranked 18th in adjusted points to fantasy WR’s last season. They have a solid CB in Charvarius Ward but the others rank in the bottom half of PFF’s DB grades. Meaning this defensive backfield can be had.
As for the other WR’s, free agent Mike Williams has been cleared to play and will be a big target downfield and in the redzone for Rodgers. Additionally, WR Allen Lazard’s production should see a spike with Rodgers at the helm based on their chemistry from the Green Bay days. Xavier Gipson will likely return kicks so his value goes up because of the potential for a special teams TD. I’m punting on the other low value WR’s in Malachi Corley and Irvin Charles.
Tier 1: Garrett Wilson
Tier 2: Mike Williams, Allen Lazard
The 49ers were good against TE’s as they allowed just 3 receiving touchdowns to the Tight End position in 2023. Fred Warner is one of the best LB’s in the game and can cover almost any TE. While I’m excited to see if this is finally the breakout year for Jets TE Tyler Conklin, this is a difficult matchup. Overall the 49ers were the 3rd best unit against TE’s. The one optimistic thought is that he will see the field plenty and could get more downfield routes if Mike Williams is on a snap count.
Tier 1: Tyler Conklin
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown
I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a stud RB or WR. I’m passing on QB’s at the MVP position because of the opposing defense’s ability to rush the passer and defend on the back end. Both units ranked high against the run, but there are metrics showing you can succeed in the rushing attack. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. Last night we did see a combo of Jameson Williams and Lions RB’s hit. So I can see a scenario where we package Hall and Wilson as well as McCaffrey or Kittle/Samuel.
FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson
FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle
FanDuel MVP Tier 3: Jordan Mason, Mike Williams
DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Deebo Samuel
DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Jordan Mason, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk
DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Aaron Rodgers, Brock Purdy
DraftKings CPT Punt: Mike Williams
Flex Rankings Tier 1:
Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)
Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)
Best Rules for the slate:
Favorite prop for the game: Garrett Wilson over 5.5 catches (-160 FD) / Garrett Wilson most receiving yards (+125 DK)
Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
Win Daily Sports is flying high into the first Sunday of the NFL Season. We’ve already had some solid hits on the Thursday and Friday Showdown’s. But now comes our wheelhouse, which is the Sunday Main Slate. You’ll see our NFL pre-lock show tomorrow but before then, hop into the projections and lineup optimizers readily available for all our members.
Like last year, I will be providing my top four games each week. Last season was a resounding success as I hit on 63% of my plays during the season and finished with a 49-29 record. You can check out Week 18’s article which gives the final tally as to how we finished.
I will also provide a pick for a popular pool that many casual and avid fans play called an Eliminator or Survivor Pool. You must pick one team to win on any given week in this format. The catch is if that team loses, you are out of the pool.
And if your team wins, you can’t select them again for the rest of the season. I’ve won several of these in the past years, and my strategy is simple: WIN the week don’t WAIT! Only canvass the future a little, and instead, focus on the now.
Whether it’s Russel Wilson or Justin Fields, I like the Falcons to come away with a victory and cover in week 1 against Pittsburgh. There are several factors in play here but the largest one for me is the difference in offensive talent. First off, Atlanta likely had the worst play at QB in 2023 with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinecke battling for worst in the league. So it was no surprise the Falcons invested heavily in the offseason at QB and brought in Kirk Cousins as well as drafting QB Michael Penix. Overall, Atlanta has the superior offensive units by owning the better QB, RB, WR’s, TE and O Line. Speaking of the offensive line, the Falcons return all five starters from a solid unit last year. This was a unit that ranked 4th in pass blocking and 7th in run blocking a season ago.
Defensively, I will give Pittsburgh a slight edge as they can provide a solid pass rush and have quality players in the defensive backfield. But Atlanta strengthened theirs in the preseason with the addition of LB/DE Matthew Judon which helps one of their biggest weaknesses which was pass rush (no player had over 6.5 sacks for Atlanta last season). You could argue their biggest splash on defense was bringing in Rams DC Raheem Morris as their head coach as he’s been at the helm of several top 5 defenses.
Don’t forget about one key intangible here, and that’s the person calling the plays for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Last year Arthur Smith was the head coach of the Falcons and inexplicably ignored his best player, Bijan Robinson, and fumbled every move at the QB position. Now he calls plays for the Steelers and will undoubtedly be motivated himself to prove Atlanta wrong. But instead, I think the motivation will come more from the 50,000+ fans in the seats.
Lastly, I see a significant market imbalance as 65% of the bets are coming in on the Steelers yet 60% of the money is supporting the Falcons. That tells me where the smart money is, and I love to follow that trail right to the ticket window.
Last year was supposed to be the next step for the Jags. In 2022 they came out of nowhere and won the AFC South under HC Doug Pederson. Then they won a playoff game, after being down by 28 points. And while they lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round, they did hold their own. Which is why they wore the crown of “next one up” and ended up as a team that couldn’t handle expectations as they crashed hard with a late season collapse.
So, one can understand why everyone is picking the Dolphins this weekend. For one, Miami is a public team that displays a high-octane offense and has character at the coaching and skill positions. The Jags are the opposite, as their coach is barely heard from as well as their QB and other stars. In one Yahoo pool I’m in, 91% of the picks ATS are on the Dolphins.
Which means we are zigging while everyone else is zagging. But this is more about the Dolphins who we all have a saying about. They beat up on bad teams and lose to good ones. Miami proved that to be real as they were 1-6 against teams with winning records last year, with their one victory coming by 2 points against Dallas. Even more alarming is they were outscored by 100 points in those 7 games.
While Jacksonville just missed out on the playoffs, they were a winning team at 9-8. And they have talent that’s equivalent to the Dolphins. I think the Dolphins are a heavy public play so I’ll swerve and go against the populous. I expect the Jags to be motivated by last years failures and ome ready to play and win this game outright on Sunday.
The Washinton Commanders are generating some good buzz lately as HC Dan Quinn takes over a team that has been often overshadowed by ownership issues and poor play at QB. They used the 2nd pick in the draft to select Heisman Trophy winner QB Jaylen Daniels. And he’s looked the part in training camp and preseason. Almost like a young RG III who burst on the scene his rookie season and propelled Washington into the playoffs.
On the other hand, the Bucs are fighting against Father Time and somehow delayed the inevitable rebuild for another year. But it did put them in a precarious position as QB Baker Mayfield played so well that they had to sign him to an extension. I find that as more of a problem than solution as Mayfield isn’t the long term answer, as witnessed by his 2022 season when he was found jumping team to team. We’ve also seen WR Mike Evans continue to perform and high standards but he now enters his age 31 season meaning his production will soon see a dip.
The other trouble is the Bucs can’t run the ball efficiently. Which is exactly what HC Dan Quinn wants to do to offenses, which is make them one-dimensional. I like the matchup of the unknown (WASH) versus the overachiever (TB) here. Also factor in that Vegas doesn’t have teams fully figured out yet. Last year in Week 1, underdogs went 10-6 ATS and road teams went 12-4 ATS. I think this is a spot that’s dangerous for Vegas as they’re seeing 68% of the money come in on Washington.
The Seahawks made a big change in the offseason as they parted ways with long-time HC Pete Carroll and brought in the Ravens DC Mike MacDonald to assume the role as Head Coach. While Carroll still has a role with the organization, this is clearly a new genre and one in which MacDonald has full autonomy. The Hawks were abysmal on defense last year and he has the pedigree and coaching aptitude to change that immediately.
The trouble for Denver is they have a rookie QB in Bo Nix starting his first NFL game. And it’s being played in one of the most raucous stadiums in the NFL in Lumen Field. Yes, Nix played in Oregon the last 2 years but that won’t get him prepared for the level of noise the 12th man brings.
Finally, this game has one of the largest deltas in ticket handles versus amount of money bet. At the time of this writing we’re seeing 47% of the tickets come in on Seattle against the spread. But more importantly, 74% of the money is on the Seahawks. This could impact the line by tomorrow so keep an eye on that. However, if you can get -6 or less than book it.
The Bengals are in much better shape heading into the first week of the season than they were last year. There O-Line has been addressed and their franchise QB is fully healthy. They also received good news yesterday when star WR Ja’Marr Chase indicated he would play this weekend despite contract talks hitting a stalemate. But the real reason for this play is their opponent, the New England Patriots. The Patriots are considered by most to the be the worst team in football. They have the lowest win total at 4.5. And by all accounts from the preseason, HC Jerrod Mayo has some learning to do. Mayo looked overwhelmed in several situations including his choice of starting QB.
You don’t have many games in which you can use Cincy this year as the AFC North is one of the best divisions in football. So take them when you can and this is definitely one of those situations.
Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
Fantasy Football DFS Expert Stix Picks breaks down the best NFL DFS Picks for Sunday’s Main Slate. He will preview all the Week 1 games, making DFS picks and reviewing some player props and bets.
by Dave Gloeckner
The new NFL Season starts today. There is a beacon of light shining down on each fan as their team starts a season fresh, with no wins and no losses. Well, maybe the beacon misses Foxborough, MA but they’ve enjoyed enough success that this downturn was inevitable. With hope and optimism budding, even in the small corners of the country such as Green Bay, we open the fall with our favorite sport in America, the National Football League.
In 2022 we hit big, posting a 9-1 record in futures (click the link here). Last year was a mixed bag as we posted a 3-4 record in the futures market. But overall, the process was sound (Green Bay over wins, Indianapolis over wins, Minnesota under wins) as we just missed out on a huge payday with several teams missing their mark by 0.5 games (Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Seattle) and just bad luck (Aaron Rodgers injury).
If you’re new to the Futures market, specifically team win totals, then let me refresh my strategy here. Futures are a poor investment but can be wildly entertaining. That’s because you must invest money upfront (now) and allow it to sit for 4+ months before seeing a return (January). So don’t overcommit your bankroll here. I recommend playing a low percentage of your bankroll, approximately 10-20%, and diversify your picks. Look at win totals and normal juiced options but also play some longer shots like Division titles, Conference Champions and Super Bowl winners.
As with years past, I look at some major principals, outside of Head Coach changes and major personnel developments. These include, but aren’t limited to:
Some numbers don’t always tell the truth but point differential compared to overall wins is a great indicator of team luck. That’s where Pythagorean Win Percentage comes into play. The top teams that were on the luck side, i.e. OVERPERFORMED, were from the same state:
The top teams that were unlucky, i.e. UNDERPERFORMED, had playoff expectations but failed to meet them:
So obviously those teams will be looked at for what we call regression. They stood at the farthest side of a normally distributed curve and will likely swing back to the middle unless they met some other criteria we factor.
I won’t bore you with all the metrics and data that was reviewed. But instead, I’ll send you off to the meat and potatoes of this article and explain my rationale there. Hopefully your team is on the plus side of my bets. But if not, the beacon is still shining and keep your optimism high. Because it’s NFL kickoff weekend and nothing beats that in all of professional sports.
Guess who the betting favorite is to win the NFC South? Not the three-time defending champion Tampa Bay Bucs. Not the New Orleans Saints who have the most wins in the past 7 years and won the division four times in a row prior to the Bucs run. Nope, it’s the Dirty Birds from Atlanta as they made a huge offseason splash in several areas to help bridge the gap between a team ready to win and one that found ways to lose.
First, the Falcons made significant changes to the two most important positions in football, the head coach and quarterback. In comes Raheem Morris who replaces Arthur Smith as head coach. Morris is a familiar face in Atlanta as he spent six seasons with the Falcons from 2015-2020. He finished 2020 as the interim head coach and helped the Falcons play competitively and finish at 4-8 (5 losses were by one score).
Next, the QB position was addressed as the Falcons moved on from a massive error in talent judgement and sent Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke packing. This was off the heels of a year with Marcus Mariota, one in which he ended up quitting after being benched. So they brought in a steady arm, one comparable to Matt Ryan who played that position in ATL for 14 years, in Kirk Cousins. They then drafted his replacement in Michael Penix, but that’s for another conversation. The good news is, they have two QB’s that can play and a coach that will hold them accountable.
Then, let’s look at some of issues the other issues Atlanta had. They were 31st in turnover differential at -12. The Falcons threw the 5th most interceptions with 18 and most came at critical points in the game. And their luck wasn’t very good either as they recovered just 42.1% of fumbles they created, last in the league.
Lastly, the Falcons have what is ranked as the easiest schedule in the league. That’s because of the weakness of the NFC South but it does help they got paired with the AFC West and NFC East.
The Falcons fit the profile of a team that is ready to jump on the scene. From a revamped defense to major additions on offense as well as now letting loose an underused beat in Bijan Robinson. They fit most of my principles and believe they will rise to the top of what is an open division.
The Bengals, in a way, remind me of why I was high on the Green Bay Packers last season. A lot of that was based on HC Matt LaFleur who didn’t forget how to coach in one season. Coming off three-straight 13 win seasons, the Packers faltered in 2022 behind a lot of drama with their QB. And they fell off bettors’ radars as a win total of just 7.5 was set for the team from upper Wisconsin. By now, you know how the Packers fared as they are now a trendy pick as a Super Bowl contender.
Cincinnati won 22 games over the span of 2021 to 2022 and reached the Super Bowl and AFC Championship in those years. One could argue that they were a controversial call away from another Super Bowl appearance. And then, the wheels fell off in 2023 as they faced a myriad of injuries including one to their most prominent player, Joe Burrow.
But like LaFleur, Bengals HC Zac Taylor didn’t forget how to coach football. Instead, he navigated with what he had, which wasn’t much. Now his prized QB had a full offseason to heal, and they hit a home run in free agency by getting a “A” grade by PFF (Adding T Trent Brown was their best move).
Additionally, the Bengals are in a division that had two of the four highest overperforming teams according to Pythagorean win percentage; the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers. Those two teams are still mired in quarterback purgatory and could have major regression because of it.
Lastly, we look at the schedule which is favorable according to most sites. One prominent one, Sharp Football Analysis, has the Bengals with the 3rd easiest schedule. By finishing in last place in the AFC South in 2023 the Bengals picked up games against other last place teams in the New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers. Compare that to Cleveland, whose extra games are against the Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins. That could be a two game swing in an already competitive division.
It’s a combination of coach, QB, and schedule that gives me high hopes for the Bengals. And while the number is high, the winner of the AFC North has won double digit games every year since 1990.
The Bucs were supposed to be in transition following the retirement of the GOAT QB in Tom Brady. But they ended up overachieving and winning a playoff game and then pushing Detroit for three quarters in the Divisional Round. And most of that was due to the return of the chef, as QB Baker Mayfield had a career year for Tampa. But there were also some things that stand out and aren’t repeatable.
First, the Bucs forced the most fumbles in the league last season and had the 7th best turnover differential. This came from a defense that allowed the 10th most yards in the league which was the most for any playoff team outside of the Philadelphia Eagles. Next, they had the 3rd best redzone defense in the league which came with some level of surprise. Tampa was the 30th best redzone defense in the league in 2022 and reduced the TD percentage allowed from 65.4% to 45%. That jump doesn’t align with the overall play by their defense (4th most pass yards allowed in the league).
And frankly, I see the Division as much better in 2024. Tampa has a good roster but it is getting older in key areas and they still have a weak offensive line and inability to run the ball. The Saints still have a good defense and underperformed in 2023. The Panthers finally have some stable pieces and look to have improved offensively. Finally, as discussed earlier, the Falcons look to have pieces in place on both sides of the ball to be a formidable opponent.
The last piece is this, we see playoff turnover from year to year at ~50%. I’ve already highlighted two teams that I expect to make the playoffs who didn’t in 2023 (Atlanta and Cincy). So there has to be some teams that take a step back. And for me, Tampa is at the top of that list. It’s been a good run down on the West Coast of Florida but we will finally see the negative regression that was expected a year ago.
If at first you don’t succeed, we try again. And that’s where I’m at with the Seahawks. While they let me down last year, the Seahawks have the ingredients to be a factor in the NFC West again. First off, it’s not like Seattle was awful last year as they won 9 games. Which by the way is the same number they won in 2022. Two straight winning seasons but yet their win total is set at just 7.5? And that’s with a 3rd place schedule? Call me bullish, but I like those odds.
The biggest factor in the down year for Seattle was the defense, as they fell to 28th in DVOA. So, the Seahawks swiftly went after a defensive guru. But surprisingly it wasn’t one of their former own in Dan Quinn. Instead, they baited and hooked Baltimore DC Mike MacDonald to take over the head coaching duties from Pete Carroll. Prior to helping Baltimore to the #1 overall defense, MacDonald helped Michigan rise to a top ten defense under Jim Harbaugh. And as you know, Jim’s brother John is the HC in Baltimore, so he comes from a good coaching tree.
We also have a new OC in Ryan Grubb. If you heard me on the Win Daily Sirius show this summer, I love the addition of Grubb. The new OC is an intriguing play caller who has a history in the Pacific Northwest coming from the Washington Huskies. While it’s his first stint in the NFL, he will bring some creativity and intuition to an offense that has playmakers in DK Metcalf, JSN, Kenneth Walker III and Tyler Lockett.
The key here is the progression of the defense. They allowed the second most rushing yards and second most rushing touchdowns. And the Hawks have the right person in place to turn that around quickly. Adding Byron Murphy III and Christian Haynes in the draft is a good start. And re-signing DT Leonard Williams helps. Then there’s the schedule which ranks 16th hardest, but the easiest in the division. Call me the 14th man this year as I root on Seattle to pay me back for last year’s near miss.
The Steelers pulled off a miracle last season by making the playoffs. It was probably HC Mike Tomlin’s best coaching job outside his Super Bowl victory. The Steelers had a -20 point differential yet won 10 games. The offense was an issue as they scored just 17.9 points/game which was 5th least in the league.
What stood out the most, and this was like two teams I hit on in recent years, was Pittsburgh’s record in one-score games. Which was a 9-2 mark. The Vikings in 2022 won 11 games by one score and we jumped on the under last year and won. Same situation with the Raiders in 2021.
Another thing to realize is the Steelers, even with a terrible offense, turned the ball over just 16 times which was the 2nd least in the NFL. They are now handing the keys over to Russell Wilson, who threw 19 INT’s in his last two seasons in Denver. If the offense is to improve under new OC Arthur Smith, it may also come with more turnovers.
Finally, the Steelers have the 2nd hardest schedule according to Sharp Football Analysis. Their fortunes of making the playoffs turned their 2024 schedule into a tough undertaking. If there is any coach that can pull out another miracle again, it’s Mike Tomlin. But in reality, this looks like a team headed to his first under 0.500 season of Tomlin’s career.
Duval looks to be in the shadows once again. And just like a Jaguar in the wild, that’s where they like to be. Jacksonville came out of nowhere in 2022 and won the AFC South after finishing in last place the season before. They were then given the pole position heading into the 2023 season and didn’t handle it well. The schedule, along with injuries and struggles on offense, factored into a disappointing season.
Although we classify last season as a down year, the Jags did win 9 games and ended the season in 2nd place in the AFC South. That included a 3-1 record against the Texans and Colts. But it was the season ending loss to Tennessee that stung and will be motivation heading into 2024.
The offseason was solid as the Jags let go of WR Calvin Ridley who didn’t mesh well with QB Trevor Lawrence or WR Christian Kirk. And they replaced him with Gabe Davis from Buffalo and early draft pick Brian Thomas Jr of LSU.
The Jags were also bitten by the turnover bug as they were overall -3. But the issue was on offense as they were 2nd in the league in fumbles (16) and had the 4th most turnovers (30). Minimizing turnovers will be paramount for the Jags and it’s something they can rectify as Jacksonville was a +5 in 2022 ranking 7th best in the NFL.
The schedule also looks to be fair as the Jags rank 15th in the league. But more importantly, it’s one of the easiest schedules down the home stretch as they have three games in their last five against projected last place teams in Tennessee and Las Vegas.
Head Coach Doug Pederson has proven himself to be an underdog his whole career. He thrives in that role. And with all eyes on Houston, I like Doug to rally his team and make a push for the AFC South once again.
No team has won the NFC East in back-to-back seasons in 20 years. And with all the turmoil going on in Dallas, they look primed to take a step backwards. The Cowboys O-Line is weakened, and the defense played over their head. Then there is doubt at RB as well as QB since Jerry didn’t sign his boy Dak to an extension. I do think Washington will be better this year. The Commanders have a potential franchise QB in place, but they are a year or two away from competing with the big boys. I’m off the Giants, as they let their franchise RB leave for nothing and have no confidence in QB Daniel Jones.
By that math, we’re left with the Philadelphia Eagles. And that might scare some, as the lasting images of the 2023 Eagles was a team that gave up. How does HC Nick Sirianni build back the confidence and trust in his team? That will be the biggest issue to overcome in the 2024 season.
The addition of OC Kellen Moore and DC Vic Fangio is a great start for accountability. Both have coached top units in this league and are immediate upgrades to their incumbents. We also have to factor in the Eagles offseason, which was a smashing success. They swung in FA and landed RB Saquon Barkley to help in the run game. The Birds also added key defensive players like LB Devin White and DE Bryce Huff to fill holes in the front seven. And then Howie Roseman found a way to fix the DB issues by drafting two of the top prospects at that position in Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell. He also found a way to fill their biggest training camp hole by trading for WR Jahan Dotson.
Simply put, this is a put up or shut up year for Nick Sirianni. In fact, it’s likely a year that determines his fate as Eagles HC. And based on what I’ve heard and seen, I think he’s learned a lot from the last two years and will step up and have one of his best seasons yet.
I could be drinking the Kool-Aide here. As we have seen a lot of bets come in on the Chargers solely based on their hiring of HC Jim Harbaugh. But while that factors in my handicapping, the Chargers 2023 misfortunes are also something that aligns with 2024 being a turnaround season.
First off, the Chargers were much better than a 5-12 team. Their Pythagorean win total was 7.1 which was 2.1 wins over their actual performance. This was due to a league high 8 losses in one-score games. Which feels like same old Chargers.
And then there’s their inexplicable ability to run the ball last season. They had the 6th fewest rushing yards (1642) and 6th fewest yards per attempt (3.8). Which explains why they used their first round pick on OT Joe Alt. Pairing him with Rashawn Slater could add up to being one of the best O-Lines in the league this season. The Chargers also reshaped the running back room bringing in Ravens castoffs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards who will both bring a form of physicality they haven’t seen in years.
Next, I’m still a believer in QB Justin Herbert. His outside weapons aren’t deep but they are young in Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnson. And he’s now listening to a former NFL QB who has had success in this league. I expect Herbert to flourish this year and have one of his best seasons yet.
Finally, the Chargers have the 2nd easiest schedule in the league. They have to win games in their division to get to 9+ wins, which they should be able to do against QB’s Bo Nix and Gardner Minshew. And take this as additional fuel, Harbaugh took a 6-10 team and turned them into a 13-3 team in his first season in SF. I’m buying, and drinking, the punch out in LA.
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