Week 3 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And we have a special one tonight as the NFL gives us two Monday night games for our viewing, and betting, pleasure. Therefore, this article will take a right turn from its normal form where we focused solely on showdowns. Instead, we’ll look at the combined two game slate and see if we can build a strategy to bring home a winning lineup in a classic format. I’m still providing showdown thoughts at the end of the article for those looking at the typical one game builds. With that said, let’s dive into two intriguing matchups featuring the Jaguars and Bills in the early game and the Commanders at the Bengals slated for the normal MNF time slot.
Remember there are different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, so ensure you keep that in mind when building your winning lineups.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
We have four QB’s to choose from tonight in the two-game slate. But the reality is, two of them have premier matchups while the other two will need to find ways to score against quality pass defenses. Let’s dig in and see which QB’s make the most sense for our builds.
JOSH ALLEN ($7800 DK) – The Bills star has had two distinctly different performances in 2024. In week 1, his team went down early to Arizona and Allen was forced to wear a cape and win the game for Buffalo. By doing so, he ended up as the highest scoring QB with 31.2 fantasy points. In Week 2, his running game and defense dominated, and Allen was not asked to do much. That resulted in a 9.8 fantasy point outing good for 28th in the league. Overall, he’s 3rd in points per game at 20.5 and can break the slate on any given week regardless of matchup.
There are some concerns with Allen’s receiving corps as Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid have combined for just 9 catches and 95 yards in two games. He needs more out of those two in order to break free in the passing totals. But that should improve this week as Jacksonville ranks 20th in passing DVOA and has allowed the 8th most fantasy points/game to WR’s. They could be without nickel corner Darnell Savage Jr. tonight as well as he’s labeled as questionable.
Allen’s hand looks to be a non-factor. But if it puts him in more running situations, that would be good news for fantasy owners. While a small sample size, the Jags have allowed 31 yards rushing and 1 TD to opposing QB’s. And those were to signal callers who typically don’t run in DeShaun Watson and Tua Tagovailoa. Passing or running, I expect a big game from Allen and reason to back him as the top QB choice on the board.
TREVOR LAWRENCE ($5700 DK) – I’m not prepared to attack a good Bills pass defense with a QB that has a 51% completion rate and is averaging just 191 yards/game passing this season. TLaw has not been able to find rhythm and some of that is due to a bad offensive line (7 sacks allowed in 2 games). According to PFF the Jags have the 9th worst pass blocking unit this season. Which isn’t great news as the Bills have the 5th best pass rush, racking up six sacks of their own.
JAYDEN DANIELS ($6000 DK) – There are only two QB’s with a better fantasy point per game average better than Josh Allen. And one of those is tonight’s starting QB for the Commanders, Jayden Daniels. What is eye opening with that statement is that he’s done it with 0 passing TD’s this season. That’s because most of his damage has been done on the ground as he’s gained 132 yards and scored 2 TD’s rushing in the first two games of this season. Projecting how teams fare against rushing QB’s can be difficult, but we do know the Bengals are bleeding yards to runners. In fact, the two QB’s they’ve faced have each gone over 29 yards rushing and are averaging 5.5 yards/carry.
The concern for me tonight is seeing how Daniels will get his yards in the air. Last week the Commanders settled for 7 field goals and were 0 for 6 in the redzone. In week 1 against Tampa, Daniels managed to rack up points in the 2nd half but the game was already out of hand. But I’m using the college approach here and put Daniels as my QB2 tonight based on his versatility and dedicated focus on running. He will get 10+ carries and over 50 yards which offsets the potential lack of passing TD’s.
JOE BURROW ($6300 DK) – This is a great price for Burrow as he takes on the 32nd ranked pass defense in the NFL. We anticipate plenty of big plays in the Bengals passing game. And while I’ll gladly have shares of Burrow, the lack of a running game in Cincy limits his potential to put up huge numbers. While Washington has struggled in coverage and pass rush, they’re also bad at stopping the run. So I do expect Cincy to focus on getting that part right against a team they can exploit. Burrow becomes by QB3 based on the potential game script at hand.
The RB position is filled with tough decisions tonight. We’ll be focusing on matchups and volume with our back usage.
TRAVIS ETIENNE JR ($7100 DK) – The Bills have allowed an average of 20.5 points to fantasy RB’s this season. That’s 7th most in the NFL. The big issue has been their inability to stop the RB’s in the passing game as opponent running backs have 15 catches in 2 games. Etienne is a threat as a receiver, catching 58 balls for 476 yards last season. Because I’m off Lawrence, I will be getting shares of the Jags running game tonight. It looks like Tank Bigsby may miss another game, leading to another game of 70% or more snaps for Etienne (72% in Week 2 w/o Bigsby).
JAMES COOK ($6800 DK) – Cook had a career game in Week 2, scoring three TD’s for Buffalo. But that came on just 12 touches as the Bills had a comfortable lead and were able to share duties. But he’s no doubt the premiere rusher in Buffalo and will be the focal point of their run game. The Jags fared well against the Dolphins in week 1, allowing just 3.2 yards/carry. That carried over to Week 2 as well, limiting the Browns to 4.3 yards/carry. For me, Cook is in play in my lineups with Daniels as QB. I’ll pair him up with Allen in a very small percentage of my lineups due to goal line carry concerns.
BRIAN ROBINSON ($5900 DK) – One of my favorite spots of the night at RB as Robinson is averaging 17.8 fantasy points over the first two games of the season. The Bengals allowed 170 yards rushing to the Patriots in Week 1 and 149 yards to the Chiefs in Week 2. Both primary RB’s went for 90+ rushing yards and at least 3 receptions. Because of the small slate, I feel comfortable pairing Robinson with Daniels when needed.
ZACK MOSS ($5600 DK) – The Bengals running game hasn’t been pretty. But the Commanders, although terrible at the pass, have allowed points to RB’s this season. So far, backs have gone for 190 yards rushing and 31 fantasy points in two games against the Commanders. At some point, the Bengals have to become two-dimensional and I think they’ll try to flex that tonight.
AUSTIN EKELER/CHASE BROWN/D’ERNEST JOHNSON – All backup RB’s with little value based on prices to the starting RB’s and low volume of snaps.
JA’MARR CHASE ($7500 DK) & TEE HIGGINS ($5900 DK) – Chase is clearly the #1 option available tonight and the only real receiver that can break the slate. He also gets the dream matchup of the Commanders pass D. The two #1 WR’s they faced, Mike Evans and Malik Nabers, have averaged 25.9 fantasy points. And the Commanders as a whole unit have allowed 6 receiving TD’s in two games. Higgins is in play too in case Washington looks to double Chase.
ANDREI IOSIVAS ($4300 DK) – Iosavis will revert back to a 3rd pass catcher with the return of Tee Higgins. But he did play 49 snaps against the Chiefs which was 14 higher than the next WR in Trenton Irwin. So he looks to be clearly the 3rd guy, though I expect Jermain Burton to assume that role down the road. As WR #3 against a bad pass D, he’s in play tonight.
KEON COLEMAN ($4800 DK) – The Jaguars have struggled with outside receivers. The Dolphins primary catchers went for 239 yards against Jacksonville in Week 1. And Jerry Jeudy, of all people, had 73 yards receiving on 5 catches in Week 2. After being shutout last week, I look for Coleman to get heavily involved and win his matchup against Ronald Darby (40th in PFF coverage ranking) or Motaric Brown (72nd in PFF coverage ranking).
KHALIL SHAKIR ($5500 DK) – The Jags look to be without their nickel DB tonight which should open up some big holes for Shakir. And the Jags rank in the bottom 3rd of the league in pass coverage. Shakir has been Allen’s favorite target so far garnering 8 catches in two games.
BRIAN THOMAS JR ($4900 DK) – Bills CB Christian Benford has been excellent in 2024 as he ranks as the 8th best DB according to PFF. He’ll likely see more of Christian Kirk thus opening up chances for rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. The former LSU standout has been Lawrence’s favorite target to date, bringing in his only passing touchdown last week against Cleveland. I lean to Thomas over Kirk based on matchups.
TERRY MCLAURIN($5700 DK) & NOAH BROWN ($3300 DK)– The McClaurin breakout game is coming. He has only 39 yards on the season but has been targeted 12 times in two games. He is the only real receiving threat for the Commanders and will draw a tough matchup against Cam Taylor-Britt. I still will play McClaurin but I like Noah Brown better in this spot. Brown found some rapport with Daniels catching three balls for 56 yards last week against NYG.
Of note, GABE DAVIS ($4200 DK) is in revenge mode tonight against his former team. He’s worth noting as they may try to force the ball into Davis at times.
With Engram out for the Jags, there is only one TE priced above $4K. This is a spot where you can find value. I won’t spend time writing this area up as the passing game angles are still relevant here. Brenton Strange is my favorite play as he wound up with 7 targets last week with Engram out.
The Bills are facing an offense with big issues on the O Line. We saw what their pass rush did to Tua last week and it could be similar tonight against the Jags. The biggest concern will be keeping Trevor Lawrence in the pocket. If so, I see 3+ sacks for the Bills. The Bengals are the other team to consider as we’re seeing rookie QB’s struggle adapting to the NFL game. Daniels wasn’t able to find the endzone in 6 redzone trips last week and is reluctant to put the ball in tight windows. The Bengals could give him different looks that opens up the potential for turnovers tonight.
Now that you have our multi game strategy, we’re also providing a quick thought on the single game breakdowns. I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Josh Allen or Travis Etienne in the early game. I’ll look at Ja’Marr Chase and Jayden Daniels as my wo primary MVPs in the night game.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I’ll target similar names to the FanDuel MVP’s above as they have the highest usage rate available.
Best Rules for the slate (JAX at BUFF):
Best Rules for the slate (WASH at CIN):
Favorite prop for the games: To be posted by 5pm EST.
Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
Tony “Jigsaw” Cutillo breaks down his Favorite Props for Sunday Night Football on the Plus Money Prop Train!
Tony Cutillo has been covering and playing Fantasy Football for 25+ years. Not only is it his passion, it’s his job. This passion has allowed me to be featured on networks like VSIN, SiriusXM, NBC, CBS, and various nationwide radio stations. He will be using his experience, unique logic, and unrivaled energy to help you win your league!
Week 2 was just very good for us in the betting market. I went 12-4 in several pools, and more importantly won our Win Daily pool on the Sleeper App with an 11-5 mark. The position of fading the market and not buying the hype worked well. On the Win Daily page, I was just 2-2 and that puts us at 4-4 overall. But that’s solid as we’re going to grow the early season malaise into a winning way. So follow and hop on the train when you see fit. As I’m confident we’re on our way to another winning season here in the NFL betting market. Looking at the Win Daily team, we have so many tools available to get your lineups set and bring home some big wins. You’ll see our NFL pre-lock show tomorrow and the projections and lineup optimizers are available for all our members.
As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday.
I highlighted this last year, that I like to fade teams coming off a win versus the 49ers. But 2024 ended up being different as teams coming off a win versus the 49ers were 4-0 SU the following week (49ers had 5 losses but their 5th was in week 18 to Rams).
However, I’m back on the bandwagon of fading teams off a 49ers win and it starts this week with the Vikings. Minnesota has looked good in 2024 by beating the Giants soundly then following that up with a big win against SF. But the jury is still out as they have a mediocre QB in Sam Darnold and a bunch of misfit toys on offense with WR Justin Jefferson the only real threat for defenses. Minnesota will be once again without WR Jordan Addison as he’ll this week with an ankle injury.
The real key is the Vikings pass D which has been bad the past few years. The Texans strong point is their pass O, with CJ Stroud passing to a triumvirate of quality receivers in Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell. On the other side, the Texans are bringing a fierce pass rush and that will help befuddle Darnold and create turnover opportunities.
The Texans didn’t look great on Sunday Night Football in Week 2, but they won. Which is the sign of a good team. They’ll take those lessons learned and apply them into a big road win in Minnesota this weekend.
In a battle of promising young QB’s, I’m going with Anthony Richardson and the Colts today. Indianapolis lost a tough game at Green Bay last week. That was off the heels of a narrow loss to division rivals the Houston Texans. The big reason why they’re sitting at 0-2 instead of 2-0 is turnovers, as Richardson has four interceptions to his name already this season. And each one has been unforced and unfortunate. But the good news for the Colts is their offensive line has played stellar as they are #1 in pass blocking and run blocking this season. So there is room for yards to be had even against a tough Bears D.
On the other side, we have a team in the Bears that are 31st in the league in total offense. Chicago QB Caleb Williams is running for his life as he’s been sacked nine times in the first two games. It’s evident that teams are willing to blitz Williams and force him to flush out of the pocket. I expect the Colts will do the same today and make life hard, once again, on the 2024 #1 pick.
The Will Levis experience has not been fun for HC Brian Callahan. Two inexplicable turnovers in the first 2 weeks have cost the Titans dearly as they lost nailbiters to the Jets and Bears. The good news is the defense has been outstanding, holding teams to 206.5 yds/game. That ranks 1st in the league.
We know the issue in Tennessee is the QB play, especially the turnovers. In Green Bay, they have their own QB issues. Former Titan QB Malik Willis looks inline to get another start today. The Packers limited Willis to just 14 pass attempts last week as they chose to try to win a game like the 1960’s teams, with the running game. Green Bay ended up running the ball 53 times last week for a 79/21% run to pass ratio. That type of gameplan won’t work today in Tennessee as the Titans allow just 92.5 yards/game on the ground in 2024.
We need to keep an eye on the Jordan Love situation because if he is able to play this line will shift. And it could impact whether or not I play the Titans.
Close your eyes and say a prayer for me. As I’m betting the Carolina Panthers today when they travel to Vegas to take the field against the Raiders. I’m playing numbers here, as what we’ve seen on the gridiron so far could now have me logically back the Panthers. First, the switch to QB Andy Dalton should boost some life into an inept offense. Dalton has been solid wherever he’s gone and is a serviceable NFL QB. Secondly, the Raiders are traveling back west after one week on the east coast. And that week was productive as they pulled off a shocking upset of the Baltimore Ravens. However, the back-and-forth travel, plus the exuberance of a huge win will play against them today.
The other piece of good news is that these teams are much closer in DVOA than the spread suggests. The Raiders are 25th in defensive DVOA while the Panthers are 24th. Offensively, Carolina ranks 32nd, but Las Vegas isn’t far behind at 28th. In yardage, the Raiders allow 349.5 yds/game (24th) while the Panthers allow 364 yds/game (25th).
Lastly, the books are showing just 8% of the tickets and 7% of the bets coming in on Carolina. Yet, they’ve only moved this line by 0.5 points since it opened. Something seems fishy in Vegas as this shows signs of potential smart money coming in if the line is moved to 6.5 or 7. It’s a cat and mouse game at the windows that I’m sure bettors, and odds makers, are keeping an eye on. But the volume coming in now doesn’t align with line movement. Close my eyes and say a prayer, I’m playing the numbers and zagging against the public with the Carolina Panthers (note it’s worked the first two weeks).
Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
Tony “Jigsaw” Cutillo breaks down his Favorite Props for Thursday Night Football on the Plus Money Prop Train! #thursdaynightfootball #nflbetting #nflpredictions
Tony Cutillo has been covering and playing Fantasy Football for 25+ years. Not only is it his passion, it’s his job. This passion has allowed me to be featured on networks like VSIN, SiriusXM, NBC, CBS, and various nationwide radio stations. He will be using his experience, unique logic, and unrivaled energy to help you win your league!
Week 2 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And how lucky am I to be able to breakdown the showdown slate of the team I’m most familiar with as the Falcons travel to Philly to take on the Eagles in primetime. In a scheduling oddity, this will be the 3rd season in a row that Kirk Cousins plays in Philadelphia on MNF in Week 2. Simply put, even without AJ Brown, I expect there to be points scored tonight down on Pattison Ave. So let’s dig in and see what areas to exploit and how to win some money in the DFS Showdown market. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
Note on Quarterbacks:
I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.
We’ve all been waiting for over a year for the Falcons to unleash the beast. After drafting RB Bijan Robinson in the top 10 of the 2023 draft, he was criminally underused in Arthur Smith’s system last year. And while he didn’t explode in Week 1 of this year, Bijan did get 23 touches in his first game under the Raheem Morris regime. Even better news was that Robinson received 89% of the snaps as backup RB Tyler Allgier saw just 3 touches and 18% snap count.
The better news is that the Falcons face an Eagles defense that looked similar to last season’s version against the run, POUROUS! In 2023, the Eagles ended up 22nd in rush defense DVOA. But they allowed the 10th lowest yards on the ground. Why the gap in numbers? That was because they were historically bad against the pass and teams ran the ball at the 5th lowest rate in the league against Philly. So, it masked their real inefficiency upfront.
This season, the Eagles invested in the defensive backfield to improve the horrendous pass D. And while that looked better in Week 1, it showed the gaps upfront as Green Bay ran for 163 yards on just 21 carries. PFF ranked the Eagles 28th run defense and they earned the 30th ranked rush defense in DVOA. For those reasons, as well as a new LB corps, I expect the Eagles to struggle against the run early in the season.
Bijan could be in line for a career high number tonight as long as the Falcons commit and stick with the run.
Tier 1: Bijan Robinson
Tier 2: None
There are a few concerning signs with the Falcons passing offense coming out of Week 1. The first is the overall health of newly signed QB Kirk Cousins. He looked immobile and was inaccurate in his return from a torn Achilles tendon. The other concern was the offensive line, as it was attacked and exposed by an aggressive Steeler defensive front. The Falcons OL was assigned a pass block grading of 44.3 for that game, which was 2nd worst in the league.
As highlighted in the RB section above, the Eagles invested heavily in their defensive backfield in the offseason. They resigned CB Avonte Maddox and used two early draft picks on highly regarded DB’s Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. The Birds are also banking on CB Isiah Rogers making an impact, Rogers was suspended for the entire 2023 season for gambling but was ranked as a top 20 defensive back the season prior.
Last week, the Packers were able to get big chunks in the passing game due to some defensive breakdowns. This happened mainly with their inside WR’s, namely Jayden Reed. Darius Slay was solid in coverage grading out as the 19th best DB in Week 1. But Avonte Maddox was attacked and exposed as he ended up 89th in DB ranking according to PFF. I’ll look to get Atlanta’s slot receivers involved tonight and play Drake London much lighter than most due to his matchup with Slay.
Of note, Ray-Ray McCloud led the team in targets (6) and had 27.3% of the overall targets to pass catchers.
Tier 1: Darnell Mooney
Tier 2: Drake London, Ray-Ray McCloud
Punts:
The Eagles historically stink against TE’s. Green Bay did not expose that in Week 1 as they got just two catches out of their Tight Ends against Philly. That was primarily because of the Eagles new LB Zack Baun who had 15 tackles and ranked in the top 10 in coverage in Week 1. However, the Eagles other LB, Nakobe Dean, ranked 74th out of 75 LB’s overall. So there’s opportunity to be had for Kyle Pitts tonight if the Falcons are able to use motion and get the right matchups. For that reason, I think Pitts is the best receiver to use tonight for Atlanta.
Tier 1: Kyle Pitts
Tier 2:
Punt/Fadeable:
There’s nobody in the league having a harder start to the season than NY Giants General Manager Joe Schoen. While giving QB Daniel Jones the bag looks to be a critical error. His handling of the Saquon Barkley situation could haunt this team for years to come. Barkley debuted in Eagles green in Week 1 and put up a career game, totaling 132 yards and scoring three touchdowns against the Packers. He also saw 80% of the snaps and collected 93% of the touches. Which just signifies he’s the featured back in Philly and has no worries about sharing the ball.
He’ll have a tougher job tonight as Atlanta employs a strong defensive front. While they allowed 137 rushing yards to the Steelers in Week 1, it was on 41 carries. Because of that, they rated #8 in run defense per PFF and #6 in rushing DVOA. This aligns well to last season as they ended 11th in rush defense DVOA and allowed just 4.0 yds/carry which was 9th best in the NFL.
I still like Saquon tonight as the Eagles O Line is a top 5 unit in football. They ranked 5th best in run blocking in Week 1 and will continue to get better as C Cam Jurgens eases into the role of taking over for legendary Jason Kelce.
Tier 1: Saquon Barkley
Tier 2: Will Shipley (Punt Play)
The big news for tonight is staring WR AJ Brown has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. This opens up potential for several Eagles WR’s to be the breakout player in tonight’s showdown. To me, this is the spot you have to win tonight in order to hit big in GPP’s.
If there was one major concern for the Falcons, it was the ability to pressure the QB. Atlanta has just 42 sacks in 2023 which was 22nd in the NFL. By drafting QB Michael Penix in the top 10, they passed on premium edge rush talent. Which forced them to make a move in the trade market. And they did so by making a deal with NE to acquire Matthew Judon. While Judon played well, it didn’t drastically change the issue. Atlanta ranked 31st in pass rush rate in Week 1.
On the other end, is a very good Eagles O Line. As we discussed above, this is top 5 unit in the league. Besides their propensity to open holes for RB’s, they also pass block very well as this unit ranked 2nd best in that category in Week 1.
So this looks like the biggest mismatch on paper. Meaning QB Jalen Hurts should have plenty of time to make good decisions and find the open receiver in Kellen Moore’s offense.
Jahan Dotson didn’t catch a ball in Week 1 but that will change this week. He’s had 9 days between games to further digest the offense. I’m looking for him to have a HUGE night in AJ Brown’s absence. New out of Philly is that rookie WR Johnny Wilson will get snaps tonight as WR3. Wilson is a big bodied receiver from FSU. His biggest flaw is he has big drops in big moments. But he could be a target in shorter fields, especially the endzone, so consider him as a cheap play tonight.
One longshot to also consider is WR Britian Covey. He returns kicks for the Eagles and keeps making the roster as a 5th WR. They like his speed, former track star, and could use him in some WR screen and jet sweep scenarios. Also, Wilson has a questionable tag so if he’s out this moves Covey into serious play.
Tier 1: DeVonta Smith, Jahan Dotson
Tier 2: Johnny Wilson
Dallas Goedert should be used more tonight as the Eagles will need to adjust their gameplan for life without Brown. Atlanta uses a 3-4 defense with two primary coverage LB’s in Kaden Elliss and Troy Anderson. Elliss graded the best but was ranked just 30th among LB’s in Week 1. Additionally, Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth was targeted four times in Week 1 and caught each one.
Tier 1: Dallas Goedert
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown
I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley or Jalen Hurts. I’m passing on Kirk Cousins at the MVP position because of his lack of mobility versus an aggressive Eagles pass rush. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. Last night we saw Nico Collins as the best Captain and he was in the top 3 in salary. So I can see a scenario where we go after a top RB, or Hurts, as our CPT. One other option is to take an Eagles WR, instead of Barkley, at CPT as either Smith or Dotson could be the big winner tonight with the Falcons struggling in Week 1 in creating pass rush and thus exposing their DBs in coverage.
FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley
FDMVP Tier 2: Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith
FDMVP Tier 3: Kyle Pitts, Jahan Dotson
DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Bijan Robinson, Jalen Hurts
DK CPT Tier 2: Saquon Barkley, Jahan Dotson (salary relief)
DK CPT Tier 3: DeVonta Smith, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney
DK CPT Punt: Ray-Ray McCloud, Dallas Goedert
Flex Rankings Tier 1:
Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)
Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)
Best Rules for the slate:
Favorite prop for the game: Bijan Robinson over 64.5 rushing yards (-110 BET365) / Jalen Hurts over 1.5 passing TDs (+155 DK)
Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
Week 1 was just so-so. We went 2-2 on our four bets. On the bright side, we did nail the Jags as the Dolphins are all hype. But we put faith in Mr. Kohl’s who paid us back with one of the worst games of his career against the Pittsburgh Steelers. How is Atlanta feeling about that investment in Kirk Cousins now? Looked exactly like what they saw out of Ridder and Heinecke last year. As for Win Daily, we have so many tools available to get your lineups set and bring home some big wins. You’ll see our NFL pre-lock show tomorrow and the projections and lineup optimizers are available for all our members.
As for Survivor, week 1 was crash and burn as we laid an egg with the Bengals. But my pool allows a buy-back after week 1 so we turn the page and try to get back on the winning track in week 2. I will not fade the Pats this week!
The betting market is flooded with New York money this week. And it’s a wonder if they even watched football last week as the Giants ranked up there as the most disappointing team of the week after getting trounced by the Vikings to a tune of 28 to 6. While the Commanders didn’t fare well, allowing 392 yards to the Buccaneers, they at least had a pulse. As of this writing, 83% of the bets and 80% of the money is on the Giants making this a very public play.
Yes, I know the stats revolving around Giants QB Daniel Jones and his propensity to play well against Washington. He is 5-1-1 against the Commanders in his career and has a 10 to 3 touchdown to interception ratio. Comparably, he is 17-37 against the rest of the NFL. However, Jones was 0-4 against the Cowboys when Dan Quinn, the new Commanders HC, was the DC in Dallas. And in those contests, he averaged just 151 yds/game passing with a 1 to 3 touchdown to interception ratio. Yes, the Cowboys have a better D than Washington currently employs, but it does show Quinn knows how to attack Jones.
Also, the Commanders big weakness in Week 1 was their pass D as they allowed an 80% completion rate and 4 passing TD’s to Bucs QB Baker Mayfield. As we all know, the Giants offense doesn’t have that type of burst from their passing game. In fact, it’s ranked 30th in DVOA, trailing just the Browns and Panthers. I also like the matchup of Jayden Daniels dual threat attack versus the Giants. According to PFF, the Giants were rated last in rush defense last week as they especially disliked the LB play led by Bobby Okereke (55 snaps and recorded just 2 tackles). This is very notable as the RPO needs to be controlled by the DE’s and LB’s.
I missed on Washington in Week 1 but I’m going back to the well here. And hopefully doing it with an unbiased mind. The public is all over the Gmen. Which is always a reason to zig. But I also think the Giants will not be able to take full advantage of the Commanders weaknesses and they’ll also have challenges of their own to stop a powerful run game from the Commanders.
Raiders HC Antonio Pierce was a great story last season as he rallied the troops after the firing of Josh McDaniel. And because of his passionate leadership, he was hired as the permanent head coach in the offseason. So, there was plenty of good vibes around Vegas knowing Pierce was at the head of the spear. But those vibes may have disappeared in just one week as the Raiders HC made several head scratching calls, including a punt late in the game on 4th and short in Chargers territory. Which means the jury is out on Pierce and with every misstep and loss, the trade Davante Adams campaign will just get louder. Making each Raiders game must see TV.
But the real reason for backing the Ravens here is the fact that Baltimore is coming off a Thursday night game. And the Raiders are traveling due east and starting a game at 1pm EST. Speaking of the latter first, the Raiders are 0-7 since the start of the 2022 season on the road against teams east of the Mississippi River. That included a 30-12 loss last year to Chicago, who was starting QB Tyson Bagent. As for the Ravens playing on Thursday, they were able to endure 3 extra days of rest and are 5-0 since 2018 on the week’s following playing on Thursday night.
The Ravens let one get away in Kansas City and did not play their best football. Baltimore has extra rest and is playing a team that doesn’t play well on the east coast. Remember, Baltimore led the league in point differential last season and had nine wins by double digits. They know how to win big and have a very good opportunity to do so tomorrow against a Raiders team that looks to be in turmoil already.
We have a rematch of the NFC Divisional Round playoff game last season in which the Lions won 31-23. The big difference in that game was turnovers as the Lions won that battle 2-0.
Looking back at Week 1, the Lions were fortunate to come away with a victory as they needed OT to get past the Rams. Down south, the Bucs looked solid in their thumping of Washington. So simply from an eye test, and based on the close contest in the playoffs last year, these two teams look much closer than a 7.5 point spread.
The issue stems from Tampa’s health on defense. Especially in the secondary. They suffered four key injuries in Week 1:
That spells doom against a high-profile passing attack such as the Lions. I’m also concerned about the efficiency at which the Bucs can move the ball consistently. Tampa ranked 29th in rushing DVOA in week 1 and was 25th in rushing rank per PFF. Therefore, I’m siding with the Lions and for Detroit to get their first 2-0 start since the 2017 season.
The Bengals once again floundered in their season opener. This time to a gutty Patriots team. For all intensive purposes though, gutty or not, the Patriots were supposed to be one of the worst teams n football entering the season. And what was more concerning was the offensive output as they scored just 10 points.
So, there’s no wonder that just 19% of the money this week is on the Bengals as they travel to KC in Week 2. In my Yahoo pick-em pool, 79% of the picks are on the Chiefs at -6.
Which is the perfect opportunity to buy low on Cincy. Listen, they looked terrible in week 1. But the Bengals play the Chiefs tough. Burrow is 2-0 in his career in the regular season against Mahomes. And he’s 3-1 overall including playoffs.
The Bengals need WR Tee Higgins back and I’m not sure he’ll suit up. If he is able to go, this becomes a smash play. Otherwise, the Bengals will need to find ways to get the ball to Chase early and often.
The Chiefs are always a public team, and rightfully so. And the Bengals are at a low point in bettors eyes. But this looks like a great spot to fade the norm and back a team that is better than what they showed last week. I’ll take the points with a possible outright win by Cincy.
I don’t always want to take the biggest spread but the fact that the Ravens lost week 1 and aren’t happy with it makes me very happy to back them ATS and in survivor. Baltimore is not happy with how they played against KC and will look to take that out on Vegas. Plus, based on the reasons above, the Raiders have some serious disadvantages that will be too tough to overcome.
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