Football

Week 10 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We did it again last MNF as our “Presidente” took down a showdown. Showing the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between the Dolphins and Rams. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Running Back

The Rams rush defense is towards the bottom half of the league in most metrics. According to DVOA they have the 22nd best rush defense. As for the results on the field, the Rams allow 135.1 yards/game on the ground which is 8th most. They allow the 14th most points to RB’s mainly due to the fact they’ve allowed 6 rushing TD’s.

The Dolphins backfield is always blurry due to the several mouths to feed. But De’Von Achane always rules the roost due to his explosive playmaking ability. Achane is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and has 37 receptions in 7 games. Good news is, the coaching staff is adjusting and getting the ball in his hands more. In Week 8, he had 58% of the snaps compared to 46% for Raheem Mostert. In week 9, Achane saw 69% of the snaps compared to 23% for Mostert. Some of that had to do with the game situation, but in all Achane is the clear #1 and deserves consideration for MVP and CPT tonight.

Rookie RB Jaylen Wright saw 6 carries last week. But the only way I see him paying off is if there is an injury to one of the top 2 ball carriers.

Tier 1: De’Von Achane

Tier 2: Raheem Mostert

Value: Jaylen Wright

Wide Receiver

The passing game is where you want to attack the Rams. While they have pedestrian stats against the run, their pass D is one of the worst in the league. Los Angeles allows the 6th most fantasy points to WR’s. They also allow 225 passing yards per game which is 8th worst in the league. According to DVOA, they have the 23rd best pass defense. Looking at their DB’s, PFF ranks DB Darious Williams as the 37th best cornerback and their other starting CB is Cobie Durant who is ranked 77th.

And who can forget some of the big games WR’s have had this year already against the Rams. Four receivers have posted 100-yard games, including last week’s 7 catch, 180-yard output by Jaxon Smith Ngigba.

If Hill bears through the pain and winds up playing, he has the best chance to be the 5th WR with a huge game against the Rams. Waddle is always WR2 and performs better with Tua at QB so he’s in play as a Flex spot. Beckham is a nice punt play as he’s going up against his former team which gives him some motivation to play well.

Tier 1: Tyreek Hill

Tier 2: Jaylen Waddle

Punts: Odell Beckham Jr

Tight End

As with the WR’s, the Rams struggle against TE’s too. They allow the 6th most fantasy points to this position. This includes monster games by Brock Bowers and Tucker Kraft.

Jonnu Smith is playing like WR2 for Miami as he’s 3rd on the team in receptions trailing just Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane. His only issue is he’s found the endzone just once this season. If Hill is healthy, it will be tough for Smith to break the slate. But remember, it’s a showdown so all we need him to do is pop for more than other WR’s in the game. And that’s something that is highly possible based on the Rams coverage schemes.

Tier 1: Jonnu Smith

Tier 2: Durham Smythe

Punt/Fadeable:

LA RAMS

Running Back

It’s beautiful when you get a team and coach that believes in the workhorse running back. And that’s exactly what we have in LA with HC Sean McVay and his star RB Kyren Williams. Last week alone, Williams saw 99% of the snaps. That included 97% of the RB touches. This is clearly Williams backfield and that makes him my top player on the board tonight.

The other thing to consider is that Miami has struggled against the run this year. They are ranked 27th in rush defense DVOA and have allowed 120 yards/game on the ground. The Dolphins have also allowed the 9th most points to RB’s this season as they’ve allowed 10 rushing TD’s to RB’s, tied for 2nd most in the NFL.

Tier 1: Kyren Williams

Tier 2: Don’t waste your time

Wide Receiver

The Rams wide receiver room is finally healthy, and that’s probably the biggest reason for their recent good play as LA has won three straight. The problem is, it’s hard to predict who will be the big game beneficiary as the offense takes what the defense gives them. The other issue is that the Miami DB’s, Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller, for one of the defensive duos in the league. PFF ranks Ramsey as the 2nd best CB this season and Fuller as the 23rd. Combined, along with their other DB’s, the Dolphins have allowed the 4th least points to WR’s. But DVOA isn’t as high on them as they rank the Dolphins 27th in pass defense. So there may be room to attack a formidable part of this team.

I rank Puka as the WR with the highest ceiling based on his ability to get downfield. He’s a threat to break a play from any spot on the field. Kupp is more of the possession type that they’ll move around the formation and create matchups to get him 8-10 targets (or more). Demarcus Robinson had a huge game last week but that was predicated on Puka getting kicked out in the 1st quarter.

Tier 1: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp

Tier 2: Demarcus Robinson

Cheap Options: Tutu Atwell

Tight End

This was supposed to be a breakout year for Rams TE Colby Parkinson. But he has not broken out. So far this season, he has just one game with more than 50 yards. And he’s been shutout of the endzone. The Dolphins are good against TE’s, allowing the 10th fewest points to that position. I’m fading Parkinson in most of my lineups as the Rams have too many options and the Dolphins are vulnerable against the run so I foresee Parkinson more involved in the blocking game tonight.

Tier 1: Colby Parkinson

Tier 2:

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Kyren Williams or De’Von Achane. They also have the TD equity and big play potential compared to their peers which is important on FanDuel. Both QB’s could be an option too, as they both have great receiving corps. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is Kyren Williams but I also like Tyreek Hill, Puka Nacua, and De’Von Achane.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane

FDMVP Tier 2: Tyreek Hill, Puka Nacua

FDMVP Tier 3: Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Tua Tagovailoa

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill

DK CPT Tier 2: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp

DK CPT Tier 3: Matt Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa

DK CPT Punt: Jonnu Smith

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Kyren Williams
• Puka Nacua
• Tyreek Hill
• Cooper Kupp
• De’Von Achane
• Matt Stafford
• Tua Tagovailoa

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Jaylen Waddle
• Jonnu Smith
• Demarcus Robinson
• Raheem Mostert
• Jason Sanders
• Joshua Karty
• Odell Beckham Jr

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)

• Tutu Atwell
• Colby Parkinson
• Dolphins D
• Rams D
• Jaylen Wright

Best Rules for the slate:

• The story of this slate is that we have many stars to choose from and they all see a high volume. There is not a lot of players that fall in the value bucket so you’ll need to choose your stars wisely.
• We are projecting 25+ touches for Kyren Williams. Highest priced player for a reason but make sure you get him in all lineups.
• De’Von Achane saw his highest snap count last week. Dolphins are desperate for a win and need to get their playmaker the ball. Consider him the Dolphins top offensive player tonight.
• I have a feeling this could be a Tyreek Hill game. We’ve seen a receiver put up huge numbers from almost every team the Rams have faced. Remember Jauan Jennings and his 3 TD game?
• I like Puka Nacua the most out of the Rams WR’s. He always carries an injury risk but he’s the big play maker in LA’s receiving room.
• Both QB’s are in play. Neither will rack up big yards on the ground. But the potential for 2+ passing TD’s is real with both signal callers. I would not play both in the same lineup because you need to get the other high-priced players involved. But if you’re going 4/2 or 5/1 with a lineup then definitely consider a QB.
• If you play a 4/2 or 5/1 stack, consider a kicker.
• I’m not playing either defense as they both rank in the bottom 1/3rd of the league in points allowed and yards allowed.
• I like Odell Beckham as my cheap option tonight. He’s made for the bright lights of LA.
• Jonnu Smith or Jaylen Waddle will have a good game. There are not enough balls to go around for both to put up points. So keep them apart in your lineups.

Favorite prop for the game: Tyreek Hill longest reception over 26.5 yards (-110)

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

We had our first big week of the NFL season last week going 3-1-1 in our posted game bets and hitting on 3 of 4 prop bets in Discord (including a +180 ATD bet). Then we started off this week with another winner as we cashed the Bengals at +6.5 on Thursday Night Football. So things are trending upwards as we look to get back, or over, the 0.500 mark this week. It’s taken a while, but staying consistent and fading the public has started to put money in our pockets.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday. We did hit on our pick last week with the Lions.

NFL BETS WEEK 10 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 18-20-1)

NEW YORK GIANTS -6 at CAROLINA PANTHERS (930am EST)

Reminder, this is a European game, so you have to get your bets in early for this one. The Giants and Panthers are in Munich for the final game of the season being played overseas. Both teams are 2-7 and each showed some fight last week, including a win by the Panthers over the Saints. To think this is almost a touchdown spread seems wild, considering how bad the Giants have been this year. But the troubles have mainly been at home, where New York is 0-5 with a point differential of -67. On the road, they are 2-2 with a point differential of +4. And this week, they are as far from home as possible.

On the other hand, the Panthers pulled off a big win behind QB Bryce Young as they beat the Saints 23-22. Considering they lost 47-10 to the Saints in Week 1, this was a massive turnaround and one that could provide momentum for the second half of the season. But I’m not buying it. Despite the win, Carolina is still the worst team in football with a -146 point differential. When they lose, they lose big. Each of their 7 losses in by double digits. So, if you think the Giants will win, chances are it will be by a wide margin.

Also consider the betting market is showing significant smart money on the Giants. The public is pouring in 67% of the bets on Carolina but just 28% of the money.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -6.5 at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Tampa gave everything they had on MNF against Kansas City despite being completely shorthanded on offense and defense. Yet, the Chiefs snuck out another one score victory with an OT win against the Bucs.

Now Tampa has a short week to prepare for San Fran who is coming off a bye. And news coming out of the bay is that star RB Christian McCaffrey will be activated for the game tomorrow.

This just looks like a tough spot for a Bucs team that struggles to stop the pass and is playing on fumes against a fully rested opponent in the 49ers.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +4 vs BUFFALO BILLS

The Colts couldn’t have looked much worse last week in their primetime matchup on SNF versus the Vikings. Indianapolis managed just 6 offensive points and 227 total yards on way to a defeat in Minnesota. It’s left many to question whether benching QB Anthony Richardson was the right move. But HC Shane Steichen has stuck to his guns and once again handed the QB reigns to Joe Flacco. The Bills, on the other hand, pulled out an impressive win over the Dolphins despite being outgained by 50 yards and losing the time of possession battle.

The Bills win last week gave them a 4.5 game lead in the AFC East. At this point, the division is pretty much wrapped up as the Jets are in 2nd place at 3-6 overall. The Colts are sitting at 4-5 and playing a must win game. I’ll take the hungrier team in this matchup to pull off the outright win and keep their season alive. Add to that, the Bills have their arch-nemesis on the schedule next week in the Kansas City Chiefs. Looks like a classic trap game and look ahead spot.

HOUSTON TEXANS +3.5 vs DETROIT LIONS

The Lions are coming off another dominant performance. This time against their most hated rivals in the Green Bay Packers. Detroit is now 7-1 and look like the class of the NFL. This week they take their 6 game winning streak to Houston to face off against the 6-3 Texans. Houston is took a loss to the Jets on TNF in Week 9 despite outgaining the Jets by 30 yards. The main reason for the loss was the redzone, as they converted just 1 of 4 opportunities from inside the 20.

The books are taking big money on Detroit this week with 83% of the bets and 73% of the money on the Lions. Yet the opening line has moved from Detroit -4 to Detroit -3.5. Houston may have the services of WR Nico Collins this week which would be a boost to their offense. But they have enough on the defensive side to keep this game close as they rank 2nd in overall defense. I’ll fade the public here and take the Texans who will surely be motivated as a home dog in primetime.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): TBD

SURVIVOR PICK

LA CHARGERS

The Chargers defense is solid and will keep Tennessee under 20 points. QB Justin Herbert is having a great season with 10 TD’s to only 1 INT. The recipe for success in LA is to play tough defense, run the ball and win the turnover battle. They’ll do all three tomorrow en route to their 6th win this season.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 9 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We’ve already taken down a few showdowns this year as a team at WinDaily, and I feel like we’re due for another. So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between the Bucs and Chiefs. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

UPDATE (7pm EST): THE ARTICLE HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT WR JALEN MCMILLAN BEING RULED OUT, WR STERLING SHEPARD AND RB BUCKY IRVING AS ACTIVE.

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

TAMPA BAY BUCS

Running Back

The Chiefs are 2nd in total defense DVOA. And that’s propelled by the #2 DVOA rushing defense. They allow just 82.3 rushing yards per game which is 3rd best in the league. Even more important, they allow the least fantasy points to RB’s.

So this is a tough spot for any team, but especially the Bucs who have struggled in recent years to establish a ground game. However, this year has been much better as they average 131.3 yards/game rushing ranking them 10th best in the NFL. And PFF ranks their running game as 8th best and their run blocking as the 10th best unit in the league. Based on all the injuries they have in the receiver room, we do have to think Tampa will try their best to establish a ground game tonight.

The Bucs have a good group of RB’s to choose from. It’s hard to feed all so they typically are heavy on the top two available RB’s on a given night. Last week, Rachaad White saw 56% of the snaps and Irving saw 42% while Tucker saw just 10%. This was similar in Week 7 as well, when the group saw a 48/35/20 split. White doesn’t carry an injury tag so he’s the clear top choice. Keep an eye on Irving, as he has a toe injury he’s dealing with, but he was able to suit up last week and they anticipate he will again. If he’s out, Tucker would shoot up my lists as his price is the best of the group.

Tier 1: Rachaad White, Bucky Irving

Tier 2:

Value: Sean Tucker

Wide Receiver

This is one of the toughest spots to project based on the injuries to Tampa’s WR’s and the youth of the ones playing tonight. Sterling Shepard is the veteran of the group, but he is dealing with a hamstring injury and is questionable tonight. Jalen McMillan is the rookie 3rd round pick from Washington. And filled in the #1 role last week accounting for 4 catches and 35 yards on 7 targets. But he tweaked a hamstring on Saturday and is questionable for tonight. Leaving us with Tre Palmer who is a 2nd year player from Nebraska. Palmer reeled in just 2 catches last week for 29 yards.

There are two dark horses too, in Ryan Miller (41% snaps last week) and Rakim Jarrett (2nd on team with 58 yards last week). We do know Tampa will likely pass a lot, as Baker averages 35.5 pass attempts per game. The tricky part is to find out where those targets will go.

Health will determine my favorite target here, but as of this writing I lean Jalen McMillan as I’m optimistic his injury was minor. From there, I’ll get Palmer involved but also look at Jarrett and Miller as low owned “high-risk” options. I tend to avoid Shepard in most of my lineups as his injury seems more severe and he hasn’t taken over a high role, which he should have based on his experience.

UPDATE: I’ve now moved Sterling Shepard up higher due to McMillan’s injury. At this point, I actually like Rakim Jarrett the most of all Tampa WR’s based on his upside and price.

Tier 1: Jalen McMillan, Tre Palmer, Sterling Shepard

Tier 2: Rakim Jarrett

Punts: Ryan Miller

Tight End

Not much analysis needed here. Cade Otton should be considered for most if not all your lineups tonight. KC’s weakness on defense is covering TE’s. They’ve allowed the most receiving yards to TE’s (566) and the 2nd most fantasy points. Cade Otton has seen 10 targets in each of the past two games. He is Baker’s favorite receiver right now and they’ll find ways to get him the ball. Let’s just hope he doesn’t hang him out to dry and get him injured as I’ve seen him do in the past few weeks.

Tier 1: Cade Otton

Tier 2:

Punt/Fadeable:

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Running Back

It’s crazy to think Kareem Hunt has become RB1 for the Chiefs. A prior standout in KC, he all but lost his job in the NFL all to be picked up off the shelf and reused due to injuries in the backfield. In the last two weeks, he’s seen 64% and 58% of the snaps. But he’s seen 82% and 84% of the touches in those weeks. He’s the guy, no questions asked.

Tampa has been very bad against the pass, especially of late. And that has likely inflated their rushing stats as they rank the 10th best rushing defense according to DVOA. But they allow the 13th most rushing yards per game at 131.6. And more importantly, they allow the highest yards per carry at 5.2. This is a sneaky good spot for a CPT tonight because people will be looking at the poor pass defense on Tampa.

Tier 1: Kareem Hunt

Tier 2: Samaje Perine

Wide Receiver

The Chiefs will need to get their passing game going if they want to win a 3rd straight Super Bowl. They are 11th overall in the NFL with 225.9 yards/game passing. Going back to 2019, they’ve been ranked:

• 2019: 281.1/game (5th)
• 2020: 303.4/game (1st)
• 2021: 281.8/game (4th)
• 2022: 297.8/game (1st)
• 2023: 246.4/game (6th)

So this is a trend that is working backwards for KC. And by losing Rashee Rice they have a big hole in the explosive plays department. Which means Xavier Worthy, and newly acquired D’Andre Hopkins must step up. And they should be able to tonight against a pass defense that is ranked 17th in pass defense DVOA. More importantly they allow the 4th most yards at 248.9/game. And in the last 2 weeks they’ve allowed Lamar Jackson and Kirk Cousins to throw for 9 TD’s and 0 INT’s.

My favorite of the group is Worthy and he’s (almost) always good for rushing yards as well as his typical 4-6 catches. Justin Watson saw 76% of the snaps last week and had a season high 3 catches so he’s worth a chance as a low-owned WR in some lineups. They tend to give him 1-2 shots downfield per game.

Tier 1: Xavier Worthy

Tier 2: D’Andre Hopkins

Cheap Options: Justin Watson

Tight End

Travis Kelce got back to Travis Kelce things last week. And shouldn’t that have been expected as he simply owns the Raiders? Tampa is bad against TE’s too, allowing the 6th most fantasy points to that position. Combine that with Jason Kelce’s antics this weekend and the bright lights of MNF and we have a great spot for one of the games best showmen.

Chiefs are deploying more 2 TE sets and Noah Gray has 7 catches in the past two games. So he’s worth a longshot look too.

Tier 1: Travis Kelce

Tier 2: Noah Gray

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Kareem Hunt or Travis Kelce. They also have the TD equity and big play potential compared to their peers which is important on FanDuel. Both QB’s could be an option too, as they can make plays with their legs. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is Cade Otton but I also like Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy and Rachaad White.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce

FDMVP Tier 2: Cade Otton, Xavier Worthy, Patrick Mahomes

FDMVP Tier 3: Baker Mayfield, Rachaad White

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Cade Otton, Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt

DK CPT Tier 2: Patrick Mahomes, Xavier Worthy

DK CPT Tier 3: Rachaad White, D’Andre Hopkins, Baker Mayfield

DK CPT Punt: Jalen McMillan, Bucky Irving, Sterling Shepard

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Cade Otton
• Kareem Hunt
• Travis Kelce
• Patrick Mahomes
• Xavier Worthy
• Baker Mayfield
• Rachaad White
• Bucky Irving
• Jalen McMillan

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Bucky Irving (questionable)
• Tre Palmer
• Rakim Jarrett
• D’Andre Hopkins
• Justin Watson
• Chiefs D
• Noah Gray
• Harrison Butker
• Chase McLaughlin

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)

• Ryan Miller
• Sean Tucker
• Rakim Jarrett

Best Rules for the slate:

• The TE’s rule tonight. KC allows the 2nd most fantasy points to TE’s and Tampa allows the 6th most.
• Kareem Hunt has seen 22 touches and 27 touches in the past 2 weeks alone. I could see another heavy workload tonight against a Bucs D that allows the highest yards per carry in the NFL.
• There has been rain in KC today but it looks to be clearing out by game time. I don’t think weather will be a factor.
• I like Xavier Worthy the most out of all WR’s tonight. He’s TD possibility from anywhere on the field.
• D’Andre Hopkins is getting slowly worked into the offense. I see him with TD equity tonight, as he’s a target in the redzone. But I don’t think he’ll have a high volume game as he still needs time to build a relationship with Mahomes.
• Speaking of Chiefs WR’s, I like Justin Watson a lot tonight. The Bucs have been vulnerable against the pass and Watson is always due for 1-2 deep shots.
• As for Tampa WR’s, Jalen McMillan is a 3rd round pick out of Washington. You might have heard, but they made the College Football Championship last year with an elite passing game. He’s their best WR if healthy. If he does take the field, I’ll have some shares of McMillan across my lineups.
  • NOTE: McMillan is out. Shepard has the most NFL experience and will likely be a redzone target for Mayfield. I have him ranked as top Bucs WR with Jarrett, Palmer, and Miller following him in that order.
• I like Rachaad White in the passing game but not the running game tonight. He’s a tick ahead of Irving in snap count and touches.
• Both Kickers are in play – Total is 46.5 and the weather is nice but there is some wind predicted. Kicking game could be a factor tonight.
• The Chiefs D is in play as they rank in the top 6 in many defensive metrics.

Favorite prop for the game: Baker Mayfield over 0.5 Int’s (-160)

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

One play in the NFL season has defined our year to date. The Hail Mary in Washington took us from a winning week to a losing week, in just a few short seconds. The way this season has gone, it really came as no surprise. We tailed Jameis and the Jags, both in underdog roles, to get us two needed wins. But the 3rd win is still elusive as the craziest of plays seems to go against us this season. Have no fear, we chug ahead and have some good data and insight to push us up the ladder this week.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday. We did hit on our pick last week with the Lions.

NFL BETS WEEK 9 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 14-19)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +7.5 at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

The Jags have played better football the last few weeks. But that doesn’t change the fact that they are just 2-6 and 2.5 games out of a playoff spot. At this point, it looks like HC Doug Pederson is coaching for his job as the Jaguars owner deemed this team the most talented he’s had but the results are yet to show. So I expect Pederson to be as aggressive as ever making them a dangerous team.

As for the Eagles, they are coming off their best game in 2 years as they dominated Cincy 37-17. They also have two huge divisional games on deck with the Cowboys on deck for Week 10 and the Commanders sitting behind them as the Week 11 opponent. Have you hear the term “trap game”? This looks like one here in Philly so I’ll take the points with the road team.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +1.5 vs LA RAMS

The Seahawks are playing like Jeckyl and Hyde this season. They came out of the gates hot, going 3-0 and looking like a contender in the NFC. But recent losses to the Giants, 49ers and Bills have set them back to the 0.500 mark and they now look like sellers at the trade deadline. On the other side, the Rams are trending upwards with two straight wins. Last week they handed the Vikings their first loss of the season.

But I’m going back to Seattle here as the Rams pass defense is an issue. DVOA ranks the Rams as the 27th best pass defense and PFF has them as the 2nd worst coverage team. Seattle ranks in the top 7 in most passing categories, including a league leading 262.5 passing yards per game.

TENNESSEE TITANS -3 vs NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Patriots QB Drake Maye is questionable with a head injury. I’d be surprised if he plays as New England needs to take the long game with their prized QB. But the Patriots did surprise many last week with an upset of their bitter rivals in the Jets. So emotions are flying high with NE. On the other side, the Titans looked good for about 15 minutes last week. And then 52-14 happened. So these are two teams with different trajectories coming into their Week 9 matchup. Yet, I’m going with the Titans to get their 2nd win of the season this week. The Patriots and Jets are rivals and anything can happen in divisional games. The Titans got blown out, but it was by the best team in football right now in Detroit. The public only sees the recent results but if we look back, NE was outscored 73-37 in the two weeks leading up to Week 8. I’ll go where the sharp money is and back Tennessee this week.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -1.5 at CLEVELAND BROWNS

The Jameis Winston story was great last week. And we can see the emotion he brings to the team which helped propel them to a huge divisional upset over the Ravens. But on any given week Jameis can taketh away too. He’s either good for 3 TD’s or 3 INT’s. And versus a top 10 defense, I like the Chargers and Jim Harbaugh to be receivers of the bad Jameis this week. Afterall, it would be a Cleveland thing to do following a great win.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): DOLPHINS +6.5 over BILLS

SURVIVOR PICK

BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Ravens will come into this game fuming from their loss in Cleveland. Bo Nix has been good but this is too much of a task to ask him to keep up with one of the best offenses in the league.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 8 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We’ve already taken down a few showdowns this year as a team at WinDaily, and I feel like we’re due for another. So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between two storied franchises in the Giants and Steelers. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

NEW YORK GIANTS

Running Back

The Giants simply don’t run the ball enough, or effectively, to be relied on in season long DFS. But they have had some weekly success, including Tyrone Tracy putting up big numbers in their only other primetime game against the Bengals in Week 6. So throw out any bias you have with the Giants running game tonight as it pertains to fantasy and let’s see if we can find value in their matchup with the Steelers.

The reality is, this is a tough matchup for the Giants run game. Pittsburgh ranks 3rd in rushing defense DVOA and 4th in PFF rush defense ranking. And they’re allowing the 5th lowest fantasy point to RB’s this season. Add to that the Giants average just 3.9 yards/carry, which is 29th in the league, and have the 7th lowest run block rating in the NFL. Put all that together, and we’re back to where we started, fading the Giants running game.

The one piece of good news, if there is any, is that the Steelers are susceptible to RB’s in the passing game as they allow 5.1 catches per game to running backs. And both Singletary and Tracy are good pass catchers.

Overall, I like the $4K discount on Tracy. While last week’s game got out of hand quickly for the Giants, Tracy saw 67% of the snaps compared to Singletary’s 21%. The touches were late in the game with the score decided so I’m ignoring that. But Tracy does seem to have the hotter hand right now. And the Giants are desperate, so they need to take chances and use whoever is performing best.

Tier 1: Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Tier 2: Devin Singletary

Wide Receiver

This is the one spot that we’ll look to get some Giants into our lineups. While they struggle with protection, allowing 8 sacks last week, they have the 8th highest passing rate in the NFL, throwing it almost 60% of the time. And the spread, as well as team records, indicate they could be down early and often.

The Steelers have allowed the 14th most passing yards in the league, at 217 per game. Their DB’s are ranked 17th in team defense pass coverage. So there will be room to take shots if Daniel Jones has time. Obvious first choice is Malik Nabers. But the Steelers have allowed big games to #2 and slot WR’s like Ray Ray McCloud (led Falcons in receiving in Week 1), Jalen Tolbert (7 for 87 with TD) and Josh Downs (8 for 82 yards with TD). So, I like Wan’Dale Robinson to be a factor tonight and rank him up there with Nabers based on projected volume. Both led the team with 8 targets last week.

Tier 1: Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson

Tier 2: Darius Slayton

Punts: N/A

Tight End

We keep waiting for the Theo Johnson breakout game. And once again, he disappointed last week recording 0 catches on 0 targets. And maybe that happens this week as Pittsburgh has been vulnerable against TE’s. As of this writing, they allow the 11th most fantasy points per games to TE’s. And they’ve surrendered 3 receiving TD’s to tight ends. And if you haven’t heard, it was national TE day yesterday so no way will Theo want to be left out on the fun. I like him a lot because of his price tag and potential. Now it’s up to the QB to actually give him some looks.

Tier 1: Theo Johnson

Tier 2:

Punt/Fadeable:

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Running Back

The Giants are coming off a game in which they allowed 176 yards rushing to Saquon Barkley, their former 1st-round pick. In total, they surrendered 269 yards on the ground in Week 7 against the Eagles. Some metrics give them a better rating, as they are 14th in rush defense DVOA and 16th in PFF run defense. But I saw what I saw last week, and that is if you commit to the run then you can get big gains against this Giants defense.

The issue is, Pittsburgh isn’t necessarily built like the Eagles as they have the 21st ranked rushing offense according to DVOA. And they rank 22nd in rushing offense in points expected from the running game, with a negative 3.17 total. But the good news is, they do commit to the run, ranking as the 2nd highest run rate in the league at 54%. So if commit is what we want then we will probably see that tonight with the Steelers.

Last week, Jaylen Warren actually saw more snaps then Najee Harris. But Harris dominated the touches with 21 to Warren’s 14. What we’re seeing is Warren taking more of a lead role now that he is healthy as his snap count and touches have gone up since his return. Therefore, of the two, I like Warren the most tonight and think he could have a breakout game. Harris will only find value if he lands in the endzone.

Tier 1: Jaylen Warren

Tier 2: Najee Harris

Wide Receiver

The return of Russell Wilson made George Pickens into a fantasy hero. He had his best outing of the year, putting up 25.1 fantasy points and recording 111 yards receiving on 5 catches with one TD. We’ll look for more of that from Pickens tonight as he becomes more of a downfield target with Wilson behind center. The Giants can be susceptible to the long ball as they allowed a completion of 24 yards or more in every game this season.

Several other Pittsburgh receivers got into the action last week as well, with Darnell Washington (TE) and Calvin Austin both seeing 4 targets each. Van Jefferson saw three. But the key was that Jefferson saw 62% of the snaps which was 12% more than Austin. That is 6 of 7 weeks that Jefferson has out-snapped his counterpart.

Tier 1: George Pickens

Tier 2: Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin

Cheap Options: N/A

Tight End

The Giants have been tough on TE’s, allowing just 246 yards on 28 receptions in 7 weeks of action. But Pittsburgh likes to use a lot of “12” personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR), getting both Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington over 50% snap counts last week (Pittsburgh has 9th highest usage of 12 personnel at 22%). Combined they saw 7 targets from Wilson and caught 6 of them for 87 yards. Because of the gap in salary, I do like Washington better tonight. But if you have the room, Freiermuth is always a trusted option in the Pittsburgh offense.

Tier 1: Pat Freiermuth

Tier 2: Darnell Washington

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like George Pickens or Malik Nabers. They also have the TD equity and big play potential compared to their peers which is important on FanDuel. Both QB’s could be an option too, as they make plays with their legs and there isn’t high star power in this game. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is George Pickens but I also like Daniel Jones, Malik Nabers, Russell Wilson and Wan’Dale Robinson.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: George Pickens, Malik Nabers

FDMVP Tier 2: Russell Wilson, Daniel Jones

FDMVP Tier 3: Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris, Wan’Dale Robinson, Pat Freiermuth

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: George Pickens, Malik Nabers, Daniel Jones, Russell Wilson

DK CPT Tier 2: Wan’Dale Robinson, Pat Freiermuth, Jaylen Warren

DK CPT Tier 3: Najee Harris, Darnell Washington, Tyrone Tracy, Steelers D

DK CPT Punt: 

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Malik Nabers
• George Pickens
• Russell Wilson
• Daniel Jones
• Steelers D
• Jaylen Warren
• Wan’Dale Robinson
• Pat Freiermuth

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Najee Harris
• Theo Johnson
• Chris Boswell
• Greg Joseph
• Tyrone Tracy
• Devin Singletary
• Van Jefferson
• Calvin Austin
• Darnell Washington

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)

• Daniel Bellinger
• Jalin Hyatt

Best Rules for the slate:

• The #1 WR’s have the most star power tonight as well as the best ability to break a big play. Must consider both Pickens and Nabers at CPT and in most of your lineups as a pair.
• This is one night I could see a defense in the CPT position. The Steelers D is in the top 10 of yards allowed and DVOA. The Giants allowed 8 sacks last week and their O Line is a mess. I will play some lineups with the Steel Curtain as my CPT.
• Even though it’s a tough matchup on paper, I think a Pittsburgh TE is in play. Don’t play both but either Freiermuth or Washington could emerge as receiver #2 on Pittsburgh.
• I’m big on Jaylen Warren tonight. He adds another dimension to this offense. I’ll play him over Harris in a lot of my lineups.
• Wan’Dale Robinson gets so many targets that he must be considered in all lineups. He won’t get you a ton of yards, but he’s going to see 8+ targets which gives him extreme value tonight.
• I’m fading the Giants running game. But Tyrone Tracy at $4400 is worth a look. I’m not playing Singletary at $8400 and against this defense.
• Both QB’s are in play. I like Jones slightly more but there is a risk of him being pulled if it gets out of hand. Happened last week though Drew Lock didn’t fare any better.
• Both Kickers are in play – Total is just 36.5 and the weather is nice but there is some wind predicted. Kicking game could be a factor tonight.
• I think the Giants could surprise tonight as they play better on the road. Therefore, in a contrarian move, don’t count out the Giants defense to put up some points.

Favorite prop for the game: Daniel Jones over 25.5 yards rushing (-110). TJ Watt will be in the backfield all day and I think Jones will hear footsteps and leave the pocket early.

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

We took one on the chin last week as the public once again beat the books. But Thursday night showed hope, as the Rams won as despite getting only 22% of the bets. So we may be seeing a shift in the numbers. Therefore, we’ll stay consistent with our modeling and research and hopefully come out on the right side this weekend.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday. We did hit on all our pick last week with the Commanders.

NFL BETS WEEK 8 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 12-16)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +4.5 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Jags return to the states after two weeks in London. They left on a winning note, by beating the Patriots last weekend in Wembly Stadium. The Jags have been known to go on a run at least once a year under Doug Pederson, who looks to be coaching for his job. So could last week be the start of one? The big reason for this bet is the betting handle at the windows. The line in some books has moved down to +4 or +3.5. But the betting numbers show just 13% of tickets coming in on Jacksonville. Something smells here so I’m going to zag and go with the Jags.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +3.5 vs BUFFALO BILLS

The Bills are taking one of the longest road trips in the NFL and will have to go up against the Seahawks and their raucous crowd on Sunday. While the Bills have been trending upwards, I still think they are overrated to an extent. The addition of Amari Cooper helps but they still lack some key pieces. The Seahawks finally played a complete game last week in Atlanta and will look to bring that good mojo back to Seattle and pull off an upset of the Bills.

CHICAGO BEARS -1.5 at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

One team is coming off a bye and the other doesn’t know if their QB will be healthy enough to play. We all hope Jayden Daniels can suit up in this matchup of the top 2 picks in the NFL Draft. But I’m taking the rested team that had two weeks to prepare for Washington. Plus, the Bears defense looks great right now and I believe they can stifle this high flying Commanders offense.

DALLAS COWBOYS +4.5 at SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

Don’t ask me why. But I feel like the Cowboys are due for one of those put up or shut up games. This is the perfect spot as everyone is down on Jerry and his Boys.

SURVIVOR PICK

DETROIT LIONS

Best team in football against one of the worst teams. It doesn’t get easier than this. Famous last words.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 7 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And we have another special one tonight as the NFL gives us two Monday night games for our viewing, and betting, pleasure. Therefore, this article will take a right turn from its normal form where we focused solely on showdowns. Instead, we’ll look at the combined two game slate and see if we can build a strategy to bring home a winning lineup in a classic format. I’m still providing showdown thoughts at the end of the article for those looking at the typical one game builds. With that said, let’s dive into two intriguing matchups featuring the Ravens at Dolphins in the early game and the Chargers at the Cardinals slated for the later time slot. Note, the Chargers/Cardinals game is an exclusive ESPN+ streaming game.

Remember there are different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, so ensure you keep that in mind when building your winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

NOTE: The totals in the two games tonight are 6 points apart. We have the best game stack environment is Baltimore/Tampa Bay as that total is set at 50 points. The Chargers/Cardinals game has a total of 44 so it’s still a good place to go for smaller stacks.

QUARTERBACK

We have four QB’s to choose from tonight in the two-game slate. But the reality is, two are starting QB’s in the NFL, one is a career backup and journeyman, and the other is a 2nd year turnover machine. But because of skewed ownership on the former two, we must look at all the details and matchups to see what makes the most sense for our builds.

LAMAR JACKSON ($8000 DK) – The reigning NFL MVP is always in play on any card. But when you have one as short as this, with just 2 games, he’s the top arm to target. Especially when you factor in his matchup against the Bucs who have allowed the 4th most passing yards/game in the NFL at 252.3. And it doesn’t stop there, as the Bucs are allowing 113.3 yard/game on the ground (19th in NFL). But the key here is their play against other mobile QB’s, as they’ve allowed 187 yards rushing to signal callers. This includes a 16 carry, 88 yard performance by Jayden Daniels. So there is room for LJack to run against the Bucs too thus raising his fantasy potential.

BAKER MAYFIELD ($6800 DK) – There are only 3 teams allowing more yards passing than the Bucs. And the Ravens are one of those. Baltimore allows the most passing yards per game at 275.5. And with the weapons at Baker’s disposal, he should be able to carve up a weak Ravens secondary. And as far as this season goes, Baker is top 10 in passing yards as he averages 248.2 per game. He’s also tied for the lead league with 15 passing TD’s. Therefore, Baker is a great play for tonight in what could be a shootout in Tampa.

KYLER MURRAY ($6500 DK) – Murray looks to have the toughest matchup of the four QB’s tonight as the Chargers have a top 5 defense in almost all metrics. This includes allowing a league low in 13.2 points/game. But one thing to consider is that Murray has most of his weapons fully healthy, including Marvin Harrison Jr and Trey McBride. And the Chargers have played just one top 15 QB in this league, Patrick Mahomes, which means they’ve feasted on lesser competition. So I do encourage some lineups with Murray as we’re seeing him projected as the lowest owned QB, at just 11%. It’s always a good idea to zag in smaller slates.

JUSTIN HERBERT ($5500 DK) – The issue with Herbert isn’t talent. We all know he has a big arm and can make plays with his legs. But it’s the weapons and style of play of the Chargers, which limits Herbert’s fantasy ceiling. He’s averaging just 11.4 fantasy points per game and hasn’t surpassed 13.7 points in any game. Yet his numbers are looking good as he has a 6-to-1 touchdown to INT ratio. The other factor to consider is that LA plays at the slowest pace in the league, averaging a full 30 seconds per snap. And they run at the 3rd highest rate in the league, thus keeping the clock moving on a consistent basis. The matchup and salary are tempting, but I’m going to focus on the other three QB’s for my two-game slates.

Tier 1: LAMAR JACKSON, BAKER MAYFIELD

Tier 2: KYLER MURRAY

RUNNING BACK

The RB position is filled with tough decisions tonight. We’ll be focusing on matchups for our back usage tonight.

DERRICK HENRY ($8000 DK) – The Ravens run the ball at the highest rate in the league and average an eye-opening 205.3 yards per game on the ground. There’s no question Henry is the #1 back on this small slate. You could even pair him with Lamar Jackson and soak up all the 200 yards this team is projected to gain on the ground.

JAMES CONNER ($6600 DK) – Conner is either hit or miss this season. When he’s faced rushing defenses in top 15 in rushing yards allowed, he’s averaged just 8.2 fantasy points per game. In the other three games, he’s averaging 21 fantasy points per game. Well, the Chargers are 6th in rush defense, so I’m fading Conner tonight in most lineups as I think there are better spots at better prices,

J.K. DOBBINS ($6400 DK) – Great back with a great price and matchup tonight. The Chargers RB is averaging 5.4 yards/carry and 17 fantasy points per game. Arizona allows the 9th most points to RB’s.

RACHAAD WHITE ($5700 DK) – I won’t play White tonight. He’s status is questionable and he may not play. But even if he does, he’s up against a team allowing just 59 yards/game. White is averaging just 3.6 yards/carry this season and will not find room on the ground against a tough Ravens front.

BUCKY IRVING ($5900 DK) – My amount of exposure to Irving will vary based on White’s status. While I don’t like White against the Ravens, I do think Irving could find some room as he’s averaging 5.7 yards/carry. He’s also a threat as a catcher, which is an area that the Ravens are susceptible, allowing 4.3 receptions per game to RB’s (16th most in league).

SEAN TUCKER ($5900 DK) – Tucker is only in play if White doesn’t suit up. He had a great week as a backup to Irving. But he still saw just 38% of the snaps and some of that was due to the game being out of hand in the 4th quarter. As of note, he had 0 snaps the last time White and Irving were both healthy (week 5).

KIMANI VIDAL ($4400 DK) – The Chargers RB has been promoted due to Gus Edwards injury. And he provided a nice fantasy spark with 13.1 points in last week’s game at Denver. He saw only 24% of the snaps, but that should go up tonight as he’s had more time practicing with the first team. He’s a good salary saver for GPP’s.

EMARI DEMARCADO ($4000 DK) – Demarcado out-snapped James Conner almost 2 to 1 last week. That was most likely because of score, but when he was in, the Cards tried to get him the ball. Demarcado had the second most targets on the team at 7. He could be a nice change-up against an aggressive Chargers D.

Tier 1: DERRICK HENRY, JK DOBBINS

Tier 2: BUCKY IRVING, JAMES CONNER

Wide Receiver

CHRIS GODWIN ($7400 DK) – Godwin has been a fantasy superstar this year with 21.7 points/game. Coming into Week 7, he led the league in receptions with 43. He can take that lead again with just 5 catches tonight, which shouldn’t be an issue versus the worst pass defense in the league. I like Godwin over Evans, due to him consistently getting targets (9 per game) but I will see some lineups with both.

MIKE EVANS ($730000 DK) – Evans is tied with his counterpart, Chris Godwin, for the team lead in receiving TD’s with 5. But he has 18 less receptions on just 11 less targets. This just shows the difficulty in the routes and balls that are thrown Evans way. But Baltimore has allowed the second most points to fantasy WR’s so he’s a top 2 target on tonight’s slate.

MARVIN HARRISON JR ($7000 DK) – Maybe Kyler Murray really doesn’t like Harrison Jr. He’s had three weeks of 2 catches or less (with last week’s game shortened by injury). But if they are going to contend, and win games against tough teams, he’ll need to send the ball Harrison’s way tonight. I still think the salary is a bit high for the matchup and lack of volume. He can bust one at any time but I prefer the other passing options for the Cards.

ZAY FLOWERS ($6700 DK) – Flowers has two straight games of at least 25 fantasy points. He’s seeing on average 7 targets per game. And he gets to against a defense that is allowing the 4th most points to WR’s.

LADD MCCONKEY ($4900) / QUENTIN JOHNSON ($4600 DK) / JOSH PALMER ($4400 DK) – Of the Chargers trio, I like Josh Palmer the most tonight. He saw just three targets last week but was matched up against Patrick Surtain for most of the game. I expect him to be WR #1 for LAC as he has the best repoire with QB Justin Herbert. It looks like Johnson will miss tonight. If he does, that opens up McConkey to see the field in most 2 WR sets. So his value goes up without Johnson.

SIMI FEHOKO ($3000 DK) – A pure shot in the dark but Fehoko did see more targets than Palmer and Johnson last week and turned that into 6.4 DK points.

Of note, MICHAEL WILSON ($4700 DK) is my favorite Cardinals WR. He’s been very consistent in the past four weeks, averaging almost 11 fantasy points per game in those contests. But keep an eye on ZAY JONES ($4500 DK) as he’s scheduled to make his Cardinals debut tonight.

Tier 1: CHRIS GODWIN, MIKE EVANS, ZAY FLOWERS

Tier 2: MICHAEL WILSON, JOSH PALMER,

TIER 3: MAVIN HARRISON JR, RASHOD BATEMAN, LADD MCCONKEY, ZAY JONES, STERLINE SHEPARD

Tight End

With have some big name TE’s on the slate. Baltimore has allowed the 24th most points to TE’s so that raises the value of Cade Otton. But you won’t want to pair him with all the Bucs receivers. So get creative there. I think Mark Andrews recent resurgence puts him ahead of Likely in my pecking order. Anytime Murray plays, McBride is in a smash spot.

Tier 1: TREY MCBRIDE, CADE OTTON

Tier 2: MARK ANDREWS, ISAIAH LIKELY, WILL DISSLY

DEFENSE

I prefer the defenses in the later game and am hoping the earlier game is a shootout.

Tier 1: LA CHARGERS, ARIZONA CARDINALS 

Tier 2: BALTIMORE RAVENS

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—MNF Showdown 

Now that you have our multi game strategy, we’re also providing a quick thought on the single game breakdowns.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I’ll target similar names to the FanDuel MVP’s above as they have the highest usage rate available.

Best Rules for the slate (BALT at TAMPA):

• Play at least two WR’s tonight in your lineups, preferably three. Both pass defenses are vulnerable.
• It’s unlikely you’ll have room for both QB’s and solid pass catchers. In showdown, the salaries are much closer so I favor Lamar. But try to fit at least one QB in your build.
• We are looking for a shootout, so I’m fading both defenses. Ravens are the only one I’d consider since they’ve racked up 19 sacks this year.
• Derrick Henry is a beast, but I’ll be on the lower side of ownership so I can fit in the passing weapons. He’s still in play though, obviously. I’ll just be less than the predicted rate of 70%.
• Kickers baby! Both are in play due to the high pace of both teams.
• My favorite TE is Cade Otton with Mark Andrews as my #2. Both are cheaper than Likely.
• Keep an eye on Sterline Shepard. He’s clearly the 3rd WR for TB and is at a good price.
• If White is out, I will play more of Irving. I think he’s crucial in spacing the field for Tampa.

Best Rules for the slate (LAC at ARZ):

• My favorite CPT for this game is Trey McBride. But I’ll also consider J.K. Dobbins, Kyler Murray and Josh Palmer.
• Don’t fret the matchup, Kyler Murray needs to have a good game coming off a poor one at Green Bay. I believe he can do so as LA hasn’t faced many premiere QB’s this year.
• Kristian Fulton is one of the top DB’s in the league. He could give Harrison some fits but I still like the former Buckeye in Flex positions. I don’t think he gets for volume for CPT but can break one at any time.
• Chargers WR’s are priced well. I won’t want to play more than one in any of my lineups, unless it’s Fehoko as my 2nd as he is just $1800 and needs just 6+ points to pay off his value.
• Both kickers are in play but I would only play one in my lineups.
• The defenses are in play as well, with the Cardinals my preference as they’ve forced 8 turnovers this year.
• One name to keep in mind is Emari Demarcado. Any injury or change in game environment could force the Cards to use Demarcado, and if they do so he’s a threat in the passing game.

Favorite prop for the games: To be posted by 5pm EST.

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Here we go! Well, at least it’s a quiet week from that standpoint as the Cowboys are off on a bye. But we did assess the Cowboys correctly last week as we were all over the Lions who thrashed Dallas in a beatdown for the ages. However, once again, a middling week as we are stuck in neutral with a 2-2 mark. Don’t fret, as I’m confident the wins are coming, and I’m feeling really good about the card in Week 7. If you didn’t see the news, the books got hammered last week and took a massive beating to the public. Overall, the public went 11-2-1. Which probably explains my 2-2 record because I’m normally zigging against the public. So you know what that means, Vegas is due for a big one which could be perfectly aligned with my zags below.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday. We did hit on all of our picks last week including the Eagles. Which is good news because frankly, they stink. So getting the Birds out of the way will help pave the way to success here going forward.

NFL BETS WEEK 7 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 11-13)

TENNESSEE TITANS +9.5 at BUFFALO BILLS

The Titans are bad, but mainly because of their QB play. Because of that, they are shifting gears and moving off of Will Levis and handing the reigns to Mason Rudolph. The latter has played one game this season, in relief, and propelled the Titans to their lone victory over the Dolphins. Rudolph has proved he can play in this league and gives the Titans a much better chance than the Mayonnaise King (Will Levis).

Also, we’re seeing 88% of the money coming in on Buffalo. That’s the highest amount for any team on the slate tomorrow. We saw the public win last week but I don’t see it happening two weeks in a row. Also, Buffalo is coming off a Monday night game and on a short week which is always a bettors angle to take. So I’ll fade the herd and back the Titans in a game where I expect them to be competitive throughout.

GREEN BAY PACKERS -2.5 vs HOUSTON TEXANS

The Texans looked to get back on track last week with a convincing win over the Patriots. But the key part of this is they did it against a very bad team in New England. And it was QB Drake Maye’s first career start which exemplified the precarious condition of the Patriots. On the other hand, the Packers took care of business at home against a Cardinals team that was coming off a thrilling victory against the 49ers. In that game, the Packers outgained the Cards by 134 yards and won the turnover battle 3 to 1.

The Packers are seeing just 17% of the money as of this writing. The public is very high on the 5-1 Texans but I think the better team resides on the other sideline. I’ll back the Pack to continue their winning streak and get their 3rd straight victory this Sunday at Lambeau Field.

MIAMI DOLPHINS +3.5 at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

The Colts are dreadful on defense. The Dolphins are returning from a BYE week and saw plenty of film on the 19th ranked defense according to DVOA. While I have questions about HC Mike McDaniel, he had a full week to prepare for the Colts which should bode well for his team. And he gets the luxury of having RB De’von Achane return to the lineup who missed the last 1.5 games with a concussion.

The Colts are welcoming the return of a star on their side too, as QB Anthony Richardson is expected to start. But he’s struggled mightily this season completing just 50.6% of his passes and throwing 6 INT’s to just 3 TD’s. They will also be without RB Jonathan Taylor which is a big deal as Miami ranks 31st in rushing defense DVOA.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -1.5 vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

This is all about Super Bowl revenge. The Eagles beat the Chiefs last year in a similar role. And the 49ers are desperate for a win. I like San Fran to play their best game of the season this week and start getting on a role towards the top of the NFC once again.

SURVIVOR PICK

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

While I do think the Commanders are a playoff contender, they aren’t an easy team to take in Survivor based on their upcoming schedule and opponents. But this is the week that we have an opportunity to check off a middle of the pack team. That’s because Washington is hosting the worst team in football this week in the Carolina Panthers. Daniels should have his way and help lead the Commanders to their 5th win on the season and help Washington stay atop the NFC East.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 6 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We almost nailed last night’s winning lineup, just missing out by 5 points. And if you saw, it was another night where a lesser owned CPT was the key pick in DK (Tyrone Tracy). So let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between AFC East rivals. While we’re all tired of seeing the Jets in primetime, we have a lot of information on them seeing they’ve played in a solo slot three of their first five games. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

BUFFALO BILLS

Running Back

The Jets are a confounding case on defense. We know they create good pressure and have a solid defensive backfield. So teams tend to run on them more than others. And when done correctly, teams have moved the ball efficiently on the ground against New York. Just go back to Week 1 and watch the Jordan Mason show. And the advanced numbers support that as they rank 31st in rushing defense grading according to PFF and are 21st in rush defense DVOA. But the fantasy numbers tell a slightly different story as they allow the 10th least points to RB’s. That’s partly due to the fact they’ve only allowed two rushing TD’s this season.

The Bills are a tough team to predict, from a running game standpoint, because Josh Allen often skews their numbers. They receive a run blocking grade that is 20th best in the league. But their rush offense is 12th according to DVOA and they average 118.3 yards/game on the ground, which is 15th best in the league. However, Allen is the second leading rusher on the team and when you take away his stats, the Bills RB’s average just 3.81 yards/carry.

As for James Cook, he’s had a solid season but most of his points came in one game, when he scored 3 TD’s against the Dolphins. The confusing part is his snap share. Since week 1, he’s seen the following snap percentages; 47%, 50%, 56% and 59%. Good news is that number is trending up. But it still seems low for what should be the lead back in a good offense. What this means to me, is that in a single game showdown, we could get some sneaky value in the second tier of Bills RB’s.

One major note to consider is that James Cook is questionable for tonight with a foot injury. If he doesn’t go, we could get some real value in Ty Johnson and Ray Davis. I lean Johnson just because he’s had the higher snap counts recently (though Davis has more touches in limited action). Just seems like the Bills trust Johnson more with Davis being a rookie.

Tier 1: James Cook

Tier 2: Ty Johnson, Ray Davis

Wide Receiver

It’s tough to attack the Jets in the passing game due to the presence of Sauce Gardner. But they have more than just Sauce in the defensive backfield. While some WR’s have seen success through the air, the Jets rank #1 in passing yards allowed per game at just 136.6. They also allow the 5th least fantasy points to WR’s. Digging deeper we find the Jets rank #2 in pass coverage according to PFF and have the top-rated cover cornerback in DJ Reed (Sauce is 47th this year).

The Bills have no true #1 WR’s. Which impacts their ability to move the ball down the field as they lack big plays. We have seen their first-round pick, Keon Coleman, grow over the first five weeks as he has a TD in two of the last three weeks. But his target share is limited as seen just 16% of the targets in those three weeks. Leading WR Khalil Shakir is questionable tonight with an ankle injury. That same injury kept him out of Week 5’s game at Houston which led to Josh Allen’s worst completion percentage of his career (9 of 30 for 131 yards passing). If he plays, Shakir provides value as he’s scored at least 10.2 fantasy points in every game this year.

This is a tough area to attack the Jets but I do believe one of the Bills WR’s will be needed in a winning lineup. Mack Hollins is my primary choice of the cheaper options as he had 6 targets in each of the past 2 games.

Tier 1: Khalil Shakir

Tier 2: Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins

Punts: Curtis Samuel

Tight End

The Jets have allowed just 4.1 fantasy points per game to TE’s, which is 2nd least in the league. They’ve allowed just 15 catches for 128 yards and 0 TD’s.

This is an extremely tough matchup for Dalton Kincaid. But he did face the Jets twice last season and brought in 10 catches for 72 yards. Last week, with Shakir out, he led the team with 6 targets. So I like him as receiver #1 tonight for the Bills as Josh Allen’s ability to break the pocket will allow Kincaid to find space in the secondary.

Tier 1: Dalton Kincaid

Tier 2:

Punt/Fadeable:

NEW YORK JETS

Running Back

The Bills are a team that you can beat on the ground. Injuries to the defensive line have been a factor. But they’ve been susceptible to good running games for years now (finished 17th in fantasy points to RB’s in 2023). This season, they are allowing the most points to fantasy RB’s. And that is primarily due to their inability to cover backs in the passing game. On the season, RB’s are averaging 7.2 receptions per game against the Bills. This alone impacts DK rankings due to the nature of their scoring system.

Breece Hall has been a major disappointment as he has just 197 yards rushing this season. In his last two games, he has just 27 yards and has averaged just 5.3 fantasy points per game. I do expect that to change tonight because of the vulnerability of the Bills run defense but also Hall’s ability to catch the ball in the passing game. He’s averaging 4.2 catchers per game.

Tier 1: Breece Hall 

Tier 2: Braelon Allen

Wide Receiver

The Bills have good defensive numbers against WR’s. But some of that has been hidden by crooked scoreboards or bad QB play. They do allow 198.4 passing yards per game, 19th most, but we’ve seen better QB’s exploit them (see CJ Stroud last week).

The issues with the Jets passing offense is they play slow. New York is 18th in pace, averaging 27.2 seconds between plays. They also don’t go no-huddle much, ranking 20th at 7.9%. Maybe that all changes tonight with a new play-caller at the helm. But I still think this will be a more deliberate attack, as is the norm with QB Aaron Rodgers who loves to read the defense pre-snap.

Garrett Wilson is the primary as he saw a ridiculous amount of targets last game with 22. Allen Lazard had an impressive 10 targets against Minnesota and leads the team with 4 TD’s. Mike Williams is still finding his room but is ready to have a big game soon.

Tier 1: Garrett Wilson

Tier 2: Allen Lazard, Mike Williams

Tier 3/Cheap Options: Xavier Gipson

Tight End

The Jets primarily use Tyler Conklin at TE. He has 17 receptions on the season but no TD’s. The Bills have been good against TE’s allowing just 10.2 fantasy points per game. Only Cardinals TE Trey McBride has caught more than 4 balls against the Bills. And only Jacksonville TE Brenton Strange has found the endzone. I think more highly of Conklin than others and will have him in some of my lineups I stack a Jets passing attack.

Tier 1: Tyler Conklin

Tier 2:

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson or Josh Allen. I’m passing on Aaron Rodgers at the MVP position because he doesn’t get enough big plays in the passing game. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is Breece Hall but will look at Josh Allen, Garrett Wilson and Dalton Kincaid.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Josh Allen

FDMVP Tier 2: Aaron Rodgers, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook

FDMVP Tier 3: Allen Lazard, Khalil Shakir (questionable), Mack Hollins 

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Breece Hall, Josh Allen

DK CPT Tier 2: Aaron Rodgers, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, Garrett Wilson

DK CPT Tier 3: Allen Lazard, Mack Hollins

DK CPT Punt: 

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Breece Hall
• Garrett Wilson
• Josh Allen
• James Cook
• Dalton Kincaid
• Aaron Rodgers
• Allen Lazard
• Khalil Shakir (questionable)

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Bills D
• Jets D
• Mike WIlliams
• Keon Coleman
• Tyler Conklin
• Mack Hollins
• Braelon Allen
• Tyler Bass
• Greg Zuerlein
• Ty Johnson

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)

Best Rules for the slate:

• Breece Hall is my favorite play tonight. He’s been criminally under-used and I look for tonight to be his breakout game.
• Josh Allen is a one-man show and will likely be the highest scorer on the slate. I look for him to go over his rushing yards adding value to his DFS stats and points.
• Even though it’s a tough matchup on paper, I think Dalton Kincaid will be the #1 Bills receiver.
• I do like James Cook, and think he’ll be a factor in the game. I’m just worried about his TD equity. He’ll mostly be in my flex group and not MVP/CPT.
• If James Cook is OUT, I’m all in on Ty Johnson. He’ll provide salary relief and see over 60% of snaps.
• Don’t be afraid to play one of the Bills less heralded WR’s. I’m leaning Mack Hollins as my favorite of the group.
• Aaron Rodgers won me a showdown earlier this year as a CPT. I’m not going back to the well as a CPT but do think you can use him as a flex.
• If you fade Garrett Wilson, look to a combo of Allen Lazard and Tyler Conklin. This would be a good zag from what the public will do.
• Both Kickers are in play – Total is 41.5 and the weather is nice but there is some wind predicted. Kicking game could be a factor tonight.
• Consider one defense in a 4/2 or 5/1 roster alignment

Favorite prop for the game: Aaron Rodgers over 0.5 INTS (-110)

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

We were so close to a sweep in Week 5. A reliable kicker, Evan McPherson, missed a FG in OT that would have put some cash in our bank. And Matt Stafford threw a late pick while the Rams were headed to a cover, and potential win, to cost us as well. So it’s another 2-2 week and what could have been. But the good news is, close means we’re trending right in our analysis. So I’m looking forward to this new week and new chances to get back on the winning track.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday.

NFL BETS WEEK 6 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 9-11)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -1 at CHICAGO BEARS

The Jaguars opened as 2.5 point underdogs and have shifted to favorites over the week. And looking at the action being bet on the early game in London, the Jags still are getting a minority of the bets and money. There are no significant injuries to either team, so the shift in line seems to be predicated on early sharp action on the Jags.

Either way, this does look to have a Jaguars type flavor to it. For one, Jacksonville is used to the overseas travel and has a routine for playing in London. So much so, they are actually playing there two weeks in a row for the second straight season. They’re accustomed to the travel, the practice routines, and most importantly the time change.

Then there is the matchup according to the team statistics. The Jags have the 32nd ranked defense according to DVOA. But that is mostly due to the terrible pass defense. On the other side, the Bears rank 26th in offensive DVOA. And they average just 191.8 yards/game passing the ball, ranking 23rd in the NFL. On the other side, while the Bears rank 7th in overall defensive DVOA, they are 30th against the run. Jacksonville ranks 16th overall in offense, according to DVOA, and has the 13th best rushing offense. That extends to PFF, as they have the 6th best rated run offense according to their metrics.

I like the normalcy of this game for Jacksonville and think their weaknesses won’t necessarily get exposed like they have against better pass offenses. Let’s start our Sunday with an early win.

CAROLINA PANTHERS +6.5 vs ATLANTA FALCONS

The Falcons brought Kirk Cousins to Atlanta in the offseason to improve their putrid QB play. They didn’t know they were bringing his luck in close games as well. The latest example was last Thursday when Cousins threw for over 500 yards in leading a game-tying drive in regulation to a game-winning drive in OT against the Bucs. The Falcons now sit at 3-2 overall, but their plus/minus is -4. That’s because their three wins are by 1 point, 2 points, and 6 points (OT). In fact, all five of their games are one possession games, being decided by 8 points or less.

We all know the Panthers are a mess. Their latest outing was maybe their worst, losing 36-10 at Chicago. They’ve allowed at least 22 points in every game and have a league worst point differential of -84. But when they hit their low, is when we pounce. Recall week 3, when we backed the Panthers in Vegas and they came away with an outright victory. Today is looking the same, as just 18%of the bets and 12% of the money is on Carolina.

And truth be told, the Falcons don’t play good enough defense to blow teams out. They’re allowing 23.5 points/game and 335 yards/game, both in the bottom half of the league. I think the Panthers can keep this one close enough for a while, and then Kirk Cousins will wake up and lead the Falcons on a GW drive.

DETROIT LIONS -3 at DALLAS COWBOYS

These two teams played a classic last year. The Cowboys held on to a 20-19 victory in that game pushing them to 11-5 and on their way to the NFC East title. But it took many curious calls by HC Dan Campbell to aid the Boys in their victory. The final was a 2-point conversion fiasco, as the Lions were afforded two chances (after a curious flag on a converted opportunity to an ineligible OL) but both fell short. I’m sure that moment, which was a low point for Campbell, will fuel as motivation today.

The other key is the Lions are coming off a bye and have been scouting the Cowboys for weeks now. And what they’ve seen is an offense that is not the same as it was last year when it led the league in points/game (29.9). This season Dallas is down to 23.4 points/game, good for 16th in the NFL.

Lastly, Dallas struggles on defense as well ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA and 31st in rushing defense DVOA. That is worrisome as Detroit is 2nd overall in rushing offense DVOA as the deploy two quality RB’s in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions ability to exploit that weakness in the Cowboys will be the biggest factor, along with some added motivation from the HC, to help propel Detroit to a victory in Dallas. One they should have had last year.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +3 vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS

The Steelers are a solid team, but they don’t put up enough points to ever put teams away.

CINCINNATI BENGALS -3.5 at NEW YORK GIANTS

This is a do-or-die game for the Bengals. After last week’s disappointing loss to the Ravens, Cincy has dropped to 1-4 and is 2.5 games out of the AFC North lead. The Giants are coming off a big win out west in Seattle, where they put up 29 points to beat the Seahawks. But news out of NY is that WR Malik Nabers is out for a second straight week, raising major concerns on how they’ll be able to keep up with a high paced Cincy offense.

SURVIVOR PICK

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

My survivor pool got so thin that they opened a new one starting this week! But the way this season has gone, this could be a bad investment. But I’m not getting tricky here, the Eagles aren’t very good but the Browns are worse. And Philly is coming off a bye with some renewed health. I’ll take the Eagles, in one of my only chances to do so, to start this new path to be the final survivor.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.