Football

Week 15 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And the NFL has brought us some early holiday gifts with two Monday night games for our viewing, and betting, pleasure. Therefore, this article will take a right turn from its normal form where we focused solely on showdowns. Instead, we’ll look at the combined two game slate and see if we can build a strategy to bring home a winning lineup in a classic format. I’m still providing showdown thoughts at the end of the article for those looking at the typical one game builds. With that said, let’s dive into two intriguing matchups featuring the BEARS at the VIKINGS in the early game and the FALCONS at the RAIDERS slated for the normal MNF time slot.

Remember there are different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, so ensure you keep that in mind when building your winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

NOTE: The games start just 30 minutes apart with the early game kicking off at 8pm and the latter at 830pm. In reality, we’re just locking lineups 15 minutes prior to when we normally do on MNF.

The totals in the two games tonight are almost identical. We have the Bears/Vikings set at 43.5 points while the Falcons/Raiders are at 44.5 points. The point spreads are also both very close, at 7 and 6 points respectively. That’s important to note as there isn’t one game environment that Vegas predicts will be better than the other. So that’s where you sit back and read what we have to say to see where you can find an advantage.

QUARTERBACK

We have four QB’s to choose from tonight in the two-game slate. But you can only choose one. Here’s how we rank the signal callers tonight based on projected points and value (i.e. points to salary):

KIRK COUSINS ($5500 DK) – There is a real possibility that Kirk Cousins is playing for his job tonight in Las Vegas. A loss to the lowly Raiders would be Atlanta’s fourth in a row. And to do that, I believe the Falcons need to push the ball through the air against a Raiders team that has issues on the backend. Las Vegas is 24th in pass defense DVOA and allows the 9th most fantasy points to QB’s. Add to that this should be a high paced game as the Raiders and Falcons are both in the top 10 in pace.

Then there’s the fun factor of prime-time football. There was a time when Kirk Cousins was considered a player that would struggle in prime time. He is 14-21 overall in prime-time games, but is 6-4 in his last 10. That includes three games this year where he’s 2-1. In those games, he’s thrown for 980 yards with 7 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions.

SAM DARNOLD ($6600 DK) – Speaking of the blitz, Sam Darnold is the 2nd best QB in the league when facing a blitz. He has 11 TD’s to 0 INT’s. Which makes sense as his receivers are able to win one-on-one matchups when teams blitz. But he holds onto the ball at a high rate which makes him the 2nd highest sacked QB coming into Week 15.

But Darnold has been great at finding big plays. Minnesota leads the league in explosive passing plays (over 20+ yards). And the Bears are bad at stopping big plays, ranking 27th in explosive pass plays allowed.

So the points and yards are there to be had with Darnold. The only reason I rank Cousins higher is due to the $1100 discount which is big on a two game slate.

CALEB WILLIAMS ($5700 DK) – The Bears are a mess. Several late game disaster’s led to them firing HC Matt Eberflus. But the alternative looks to be even worse as Chicago laid down last week in interim HC Thomas Brown’s debut. Losing 38-13 to the San Francisco 49ers, who are a mess of their own.

However, even in defeat, which they’ve had a lot, Caleb Williams has been able to put up some decent fantasy numbers. He has five games of 23+ points on the season. He does have four duds, where he put up less than 10 points. But those were in tough conditions or versus quality pass defenses. The latter is what Minnesota is not. The Vikings allow the 3rd most passing yards in the league at 250.6. According to PFF, Minnesota is ranked 29th in pass rush and 17th in pass coverage. While they entered Week 15 with 40 sacks, good for 4th in the NFL, that is due to their propensity to blitz. The Vikings lead the NFL at a 38.7% blitz rate.

That’s where this gets interesting. We all know Caleb Williams has been sacked a lot. He leads the league with 56 sacks. But in the face of a blitz, he’s thrown 6 TD’s to just 1 INT. He’s ranked 13th of all qualified QB’s against the blitz, higher than Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts (to name a few). So seeing the blitz isn’t a bad thing per say for Caleb. It makes him a quicker decision maker. And his stats against Minnesota backed that as he threw for 340 yards and 2 TD’s in Week 12 against the Vikings.

DESMOND RIDDER ($4800 DK) – All signs point to Ridder starting tonight for LVR as Aidan O’Connell is doubtful with a leg injury. I’m not a Ridder fan, but it is worth noting that he started the season as Atlanta’s starting QB in 2023. His poor perfromance is why they spent money in free agency on Cousins and drafted Michael Penix in the first round. But it can also be used as motivation for Ridder and I’ll think he’ll have some extra juice for tonight’s game.

Also worth noting is the Falcons D is awful. They allow the 6th most points to QB’s and 8th most passing yards per game. If the other QB’s were in the $7K range then I’d see value in Ridder. But, with Cousins only $700 more, I find the value of Ridder as low and will likely be fading him tonight. Even with a plus matchup fueled by spurned motivation.

Tier 1: Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold

Tier 2: Caleb Williams, Desmond Ridder

RUNNING BACK

The RB position is filled with tough decisions tonight because of matchups. The top 2 are clearly the best option but there could be value in other spots.

AARON JONES ($6500 DK) – Jones has the best matchup as the Bears allow the 4th most fantasy point to RB’s. He exploited this matchup back in Week 12 when he ran for 106 yards, his apex on this season. The Bears allow the 5th most rushing yards per game at 134.8.

BIJAN ROBINSON ($7600 DK) – Bijan is the safest option of all the RB’s tonight. Jones has a few games of single digit scoring. Bijan’s lowest output is 10.3 points and that was in a blowout loss against Denver. He also gets a plus matchup as the Raiders are allowing the 11th most fantasy points to RB’s. His matchup isn’t as good as Jones and his salary is $1100 more which is why I put him 2nd. But you can fit him in with Jones or run him separate with multiple big name pass catchers.

SINCERE MCCORMICK ($5100 DK) – The Raiders announced McCormick will start tonight. This is good news as he’s flashed potential the last two weeks, with 134 yards rushing on 27 carries. Atlanta has good numbers against RB’s, but that is somewhat smoke and mirrors. The Falcons have allowed just 4 rushing TD’s this season to RB’s which is 2nd lowest in the NFL. But they are allowing 120.8 yards rushing which is 16th most in the NFL. And they’re susceptible to RB’s that can catch, as they’ve allowed 5.5 receptions to RB’s this season which is 3rd highest in the NFL. See Ameer Abdullah.

NOTE: Alex Mattison is listed as healthy and will suit up tonight. This backfield is crowded and the Raiders pass at such a high rate that I have concerns on using any of their RB’s.

AMEER ABDULLAH ($4600 DK) – Last week looked to be an aberration. Abdullah saw just 2 touches coming off the previous two weeks when he averaged 12.5 touches per game. Abdullah still saw a decent amount of the snaps, registering 39%. The problem was the game script and Tampa’s defense as they held him to -2 total yards. Being Atlanta’s defense is much more favorable, and they allow the 3rd most receptions to RB’s, I like Abdullah to get positive fantasy points tonight.

BEARS RB’s – D’Andre Swift is questionable tonight. If he ends up playing, I will have some interest based on his salary. But if he doesn’t play then we have a potential steal in Travis Homer at $4000. Getting a starting RB for that price, even though the matchup is tough, would be a great edge to use in order to pay up for some other big names.

Tier 1: AARON JONES, BIJAN ROBINSON

Tier 2: SINCERE MCCORMICK, TRAVIS HOMER (if Swift is out)

Tier 3: D’ANDRE SWIFT, AMEER ABDULLAH, TYLER ALLGEIER, CAM AKERS

Wide Receiver

DRAKE LONDON ($6400 DK) – London is my favorite receiver on the slate tonight. He’s $1800 cheaper than Jefferson and has a better matchup against LVR. As Cousins is my #1 QB, I’ll be looking to pair him up with London in most lineups that I have Kirk. I’ll also be comfortable running London solo. Our projections have London at just 2 points behind Jefferson.

JUSTIN JEFFERSON ($8200 DK) – The Bears have been more vulnerable against WR #2’s and TE’s. And this showed up heavily in their first matchup with Minnestoa as they held Jefferson to 2 catches and 27 yards. Chicago tends to play Cover 3, which allows them to double certain WR’s with safety help. The Bears also held Jefferson in check in their final game in 2023, holding him to 4 catches for 38 yards. But the good news is, Jefferson has gone over 100 yards in every home matchup against Chicago. He’s averaged 8 catches and 123 yards in three career home games against the Bears.

JAKOBI MYERS ($5700 DK) – Myers has the best matchup tonight as the Falcons allow the 2nd most fantasy points to WR’s. He is a reception machine, hauling in 23 in the past three weeks. He’s seen 36 targets in that stretch. If his QB’s had some accuracy then his numbers could even be better. And that’s his only drawback tonight, as Ridder is not known for his accuracy. But this is still a great price and plus matchup for a WR that sees the type of volume that Myers does.

DJ MOORE ($5800 DK) – Speaking of great matchups, the only team that allows more fantasy points to WR’s than the Falcons is the Vikings. DJ Moore went for 7 catches and 106 yards in Week 12 against Minnesota. He’ll be the best blitz beater as he can line-up in the slot or see quick routes from the outside.

DARNELL MOONEY ($5500 DK) – Mooney reeled in 6 catches for 142 yards last week in Minnesota. He’ll have opportunities tonight too against a Raiders team that doesn’t have a CB ranked inside the top 66 players at that position according to PFF.

KEENAN ALLEN ($5400 DK) – Allen has been more active in the passing game of late, averaging 18 fantasy points per game in the last 3 weeks. He also had a big game against Minnesota in Week 12 bringing in 9 catches for 96 yards. Allen’s performance will hinge on TD equity as he doesn’t get a lot of downfield opportunities.

Of note, JORDAN ADDISON had a huge game last week and against Chicago is Week 12. He’s in my player pool too but I will likely only play him in lineups that I don’t have Jefferson.

Tier 1: DRAKE LONDON, JUSTIN JEFFERSON, JAKOBI MYERS

Tier 2: DJ MOORE, KEENAN ALLEN, DARNELL MOONEY, JORDAN ADDISON

TIER 3: RAY-RAY MCCLOUD, ROME ODUNZE, TRE TUCKER

Tight End

With have one big name TE who has underperformed this season but has a plus matchup. The other TE’s are low salary and low volume.

Tier 1: BROCK BOWERS

Tier 2: TJ HOCKENSON

Tier 3: KYLE PITTS, COLE KMET

DEFENSE

There is one premium defense based on sack equity. But all are in play due to sack potential.

Tier 1: MINNESOTA VIKINGS 

Tier 2: ATLANTA FALCONS

Tier 3: CHICAGO BEARS, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—MNF Showdown 

Now that you have our multi game strategy, we’re also providing a quick thought on the single game breakdowns (SHOWDOWNS).

Best Rules for the Showdown slate (CHI at MIN):

• Play the passing game tonight. Minnesota at home has been performing at a high level all season. They average 28.7 points per game in their home dome.
• Put a premium WR in your CPT. Looking at Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson or Moore.
• I will use Travis Homer as salary relief. Especially if Swift is out.
• Kickers are in play but I prefer Reichard (Minnesota). Teams like the Bears that have little to play for will pass on FG opps more often than normal.
• Aaron Jones should have a big game tonight as well. I’ll play him with pass catchers but not necessarily with Darnold.
• Bears WR rankings for me; Moore, Allen, Kmet, Odunze.
• Caleb Williams could have a good fantasy game. I don’t mind playing him in a runback against Minnesota’s passing game.

Best Rules for the slate (ATL at LVR):

• My favorite CPT’s are Drake London, Bijan Robinson and Jakobi Myers.
• I’m bullish on Desmond Ridder for the two game slate. But I like him in a showdown. He’s even a CPT candidate due to the potential for him to score with his legs.
• Brock Bowers can’t be stopped but his salary is high. Try to fit him in with Myers or Ridder when making lineups. The Raiders pass at the 3rd highest rate in the league.
• Bijan will be most popular player and rightfully so. With the Falcons on a long losing streak, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a focused running attack, especially in the redzone.
• At least one secondary receiver will have a big game. My preference is Mooney, Tucker, then McCloud.
• Even though Abdullah didn’t see many touches last week, at $3400 DK tonight he could be a good salary saver. Teh Falcons have let up 3rd most receptions to RB’s this season. And that’s Abdullah’s bread and butter. The risk is that Alex Mattison is back (same goes for risk with McCormick).
• McCormick gets the start at RB but is priced up in the Showdown. I prefer the passing game over him.

Favorite prop for the games: To be posted by 5pm EST.

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

We had another solid outing by going 3-2 in our plays from last week’s article. The Monday Night Football game got us on the plus side as the Bengals used a fortunate bounce to cover the line as road favorites. The thought of Kirk’s revenge went sour, but the Panthers covering a big line and almost pulling off a stunner in Philly was our best play of the weekend. We’ve now dug ourselves out of the early season hole and got over the 0.500 mark. With four weeks left, and a recent string of 8 games over 0.500 in the last 6 weeks, we’ll look to keep the momentum going into this weekend’s big slate.

Of note, the dogs went 7-5-1 last week. Of the seven ATS covers, two were outright wins.

As for Survivor, most leagues have wrapped up but if you’re still alive then I’ll give my best play outside of Baltimore (16-point favorites). We won last week by backing the Dolphins. This week, I lean Philadelphia as a 5.5 point favorite. The Eagles had a lot of white noise going on this week but I think that’ll help them focus and knock off another AFC contender. Another team to consider is Minnesota as they are playing a Bears team that is looking like they are laying down for the rest of the season.

NFL BETS WEEK 15 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 35-34-1, game bets only)

DENVER BRONCOS -3.5 vs INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Both teams are heading into this critical matchup coming off a bye week. They are both relatively healthy and fresh which will be key as this game is as close to a playoff game as any this weekend. With a win, the Broncos chances of being in the playoffs rises to 91%. But with a loss, they drop to 51%. On the flipside, the Colts have a 51% chance of reaching the playoffs with a win but drop to 6% with a loss.

I lean towards the Broncos in this matchup as they have been a team on the rise over the past two months. In their last 3 home games, they are 3-0 ATS and have an average win margin of 18.3 points per game. Alternatively, the Colts are 3-3 ATS on the road this season, and are 1-2 ATS in their past 3 road games. This includes two games they won by 1-point each against the hapless Jets and Patriots.

Additionally, I see a broad gap between the teams in DVOA. Denver is 5th overall defensively while Indianapolis is 16th. Offensively, it’s closer but Denver still has the edge at 20th overall vice Indy at 22nd overall. And Denver has played a much tougher schedule than the Colts. So, saddle up and say it together, Broncos Country “let’s ride”!

NEW YORK JETS -3.5 at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

I said two weeks ago that I’d never take the Jets again. Yet here we are and I’m breaking my promise. But really, the Jets are a favorite against anyone? Not only a favorite but a road favorite and one that is over the key number of three. I hate to say it, but this line tells me something. This is more of an indictment on the Jaguars, Doug Pederson and Mac Jones. So with that, I’ll keep this one short, J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS!

CAROLINA PANTHERS -2.5 vs DALLAS COWBOYS

The Panthers are favorites against the Dallas Cowboys. Say that with me again. The Carolina Panthers are favorites against the Dallas Cowboys. Imagine what this line was projected to be before the season started. Likely at least a touchdown favorite for Dallas. So it’s crazy how the tides have turned and we’re now on the opposite side of the seesaw.

But this line speaks volumes. The Panthers have been playing better football since reinserting QB Bryce Young into the starting role. They’ve covered five straight games including two against top teams in the league such as Philly and KC. As for Dallas, they let a game slip on MNF which virtually takes away their (slim) possibility of making the playoffs. They’ll likely not be as up as they could have been if they won last week. While the Panthers are playing inspired football. Give me Carolina in what would be an upset on paper but not in Vegas.

CLEVELAND BROWNS +5 vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Chiefs keep winning games that they clearly shouldn’t. And while that is good for their record, they have been a losing team in Vegas all year. Kansas City posts a 12-1 record SU but is 4-9 ATS including six straight losses to the number.

The Browns are a roller coaster mainly because their QB plays with such a reckless abandon. But since Jameis took over the reigns from Deshaun Watson, the Browns are 2-1 ATS at home including two outright wins as an underdog against Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): Green Bay Packers -3 (Sunday Night Football)

SURVIVOR PICK

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The Bears are a mess. They can’t block anyone and their QB holds onto the ball forever. Not a good recipe against Minnesota who are 4th in the NFL with 40 sacks.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 14 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We have a battle of two of the more disappointing teams in the NFL as the 4-8 Bengals travel to the 5-7 Cowboys. As for Win Daily, we’ve had multiple takedowns in the one-game slates, i.e. Showdowns, this year. How many other sites can say that? It’s just proof that the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between the Bengals and Cowboys. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

A note about tonight’s game is that we have a high point spread and low total as Cincy is a 4.5-point favorite with a game total at 49.5. With a high total and moderate spread, we are anticipating a shootout in Big D.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Running Back

The Bengals started the season with a shared backfield, splitting reps and carries between Zack Moss and Chase Brown. However, there is no longer a sharing of the ball as Chase Brown has taken over the reigns and a full workload. In fact, Brown logged 81% of the offensive snaps last week and 94% of the RB touches. The 81% of snaps was the 4th highest for RB’s in the NFL last week, trailing just Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara. That’s great news for fantasy owners and Brown is getting the snaps and touches in one of the best offenses.

As for his matchup tonight, the Cowboys have been one of the worst rushing defenses all season. They allow the 2nd most rushing yards per game, at 147.6. Additionally, they allow the 7th most fantasy points to RB’s, including the 2nd most rushing TD’s allowed at 14. As for DVOA, they rank the Cowboys as the 5th wors rush defense.

In short, it’s Chase Brown’s backfield and he should be heavily considered as a CPT tonight based on matchup and predicted opportunities.

Tier 1: Chase Brown

Tier 2:

Punt: Khalil Herbert

Wide Receiver

We know the Bengals have firepower at the receiver position, led by Ja’Marr Chase who is 2nd in the NFL with 1,142 receiving yards. Tee Higgins is a great #2 wideout and has scored a touchdown in three straight games. In all, the Bengals lead the league in passing yards per game at 264.4.

As for Dallas, they are ranked 21st in pass defense DVOA. Some of their numbers are misleading as they allow just 212.1 yards per game passing, which is 10th fewest in the NFL. But their pass coverage is rated as the 7th worst. And they could be missing DB Trevon Diggs tonight as he’s listed as questionable.

The Cowboys have been particularly vulnerable against RB’s and TE’s in the passing game. And while #1 WR’s have had some big games against them (McClaurin, Nabers, AJ Brown), the biggest games have come from the #2 WR’s.

• Rashid Shaheed (Week 2): 4/96 yards and 1 TD
• Wandale Robinson (Week 4): 11/71 yards
• Jameson Williams (Week 6): 3/76 yards and 1 TD
• Darnell Mooney (Week 9): 5/88 yards and 1 TD

The numbers are there for either Chase or Higgins to have a big game. While I could see both exploding, especially if Diggs is out, I’m going to typically target one of these and pair with QB, RB and TE. Some lineups I will look to do a straight Higgins and Chase plus Burrow without the RB.

Tier 1: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins

Tier 2: Andrei Iosivas

Punts:

Tight End

Mike Gesicki was shutout 2 weeks ago against the Chargers. But outside of that game, he’s averaging 5.5 catches and 63.5 yards per game over the past 1.5 months.

The Cowboys have allowed six receiving TD’s to TE’s which is good for 5th most in the NFL. Additionally, they have allowed TE’s to catch 77% of their targets, which is 4th highest in the league. So if the Cowboys have to use extra coverage tonight against Chase, I expect Gesicki to be the biggest beneficiary.

Tier 1: Mike Gesicki

Tier 2: Tanner Hudson

Punt/Fadeable:

DALLAS COWBOYS

Running Back

The Cowboys RB situation has been well documented all year, as they chose to sign Ezekial Elliott and pair him with a underused Rico Dowdle instead of targeting a big name free agent RB, like Derek Henry or Saquon Barkley. But the good news is, the ‘Boys have finally settled on Dowdle as their main workhorse and he’s paying off in big ways for fantasy owners. And at the exact right time of year. Last week, Dowdle saw 70% of the snaps and 97% of the touches. In fact, he had the 6th most touches for RB’s in Week 13 with 25. That’s coming off a week in where he saw 22 touches and 88% of the load. So it doesn’t look like a one week occurrence but more a shift in philosophy.

The Bengals have a terrible defense. They’ve allowed 113 points in the past three games, all losses. They allow the 2nd most points per game at 28.3. Additionally, Cincy allows the 5th most yards per game at 369.2. The run defense isn’t good by any measure allowing the 10th most yards on the ground per game at 128.2. They rank in the middle of the pack for fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but the key stat is they’ve surrendered 12 rushing TD’s to backs, good for 5th most.

Tier 1: Rico Dowdle

Tier 2: Ezekial Elliott

Wide Receiver

As noted above, Cincy’s terrible defense shows up in many ways, including the passing game. They allow the 6th most passing yards per game at 241.0. And DVOA has their pass defense ranked as 30th overall.

Even when the matchup presents itself, the Cowboys still throw the ball more than they run. On the season, they throw the ball 66% of the time which is 5th highest in the league. So I fully expect HC Mike McCarthy to drop Cooper Rush back to throw more than 35 times tonight. Which means we’ll need some Cowboy WR’s for our DFS lineups.

The top target is Cee Dee Lamb. And he’s been cleared to play which is good news for Dallas.

But Brandin Cooks returned last week and immediately made an impact by scoring a TD on Thanksgiving Day. He’s going to be involved more heavily tonight and has the chance to put up a big game.

And we must consider KaVontae Turpin who has exploded on the scene of late. Flashing speed like Tyreek Hill, the Boys will try to find ways to get Turpin the ball in space. He even received a rushing attempt last week and we could see Dallas try that again tonight on MNF.

Tier 1: Cee Dee Lamb

Tier 2: Brandin Cooks, KaVontae Turpin

Cheap Options: Jalen Tolbert

Tight End

The Bengals allow the 3rd most fantasy points to TE’s. The big boys have caught 8 TD’s against Cincy’s D, good for 2nd most in the league.

Tier 1: Jake Ferguson

Tier 2: Luke Schoonmaker

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Rico Dowdle or Cee Dee Lamb. The QB’s are both in play as Rush and Burrow will look to throw the ball downfield. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I still believe the 2 QB’s are your best options at the CPT spot as well.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Cee Dee Lamb

FDMVP Tier 2: Rico Dowdle, Cooper Rush, Tee Higgins

FDMVP Tier 3: Mike Gesicki, Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Cee Dee Lamb

DK CPT Tier 2:  Rico Dowdle, Cooper Rush, Tee Higgins

DK CPT Tier 3: Mike Gesicki, Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks

DK CPT Punt: Brandon Aubrey

Best Rules for the slate:

• No weather concerns as game is being played in Dallas at AT&T Stadium. Great environment for points. The Cowboys haven’t allowed less than 20 points in a home game this year. And the Bengals are giving up 38 points per game in their last 3.
• I’ll have Chase Brown as my most rostered player and highest percentage of CPTs. His volume and time of the field is top 5 in the NFL. And Cowboys are not good against pass catching RB’s.
• For the Bengals WR’s, I prefer Higgins to Chase just based on what I believe DC Zimmer will try to do to limit Chase’s touches. And he comes at $2K less in salary on DK. But both are in play.
• Joe Burrow leads the NFL with 30 passing TD’s. He has a great matchup tonight and will be played heavily in most of my lineups.
• Don’t sleep on Cooper Rush. The Cowboys throw the ball 66% of the time. Russell Wilson passed for over 400 yards against this Bengals D last week.
• The Bengals are vulnerable against the long ball. That make Brandin Cooks in play for a big night.
• Consider a kicker with the team you have more players on. If someone gets down, they will avoid kicking FG’s.
• The Cowboys will need to get KaVontae Turpin the ball at least 4 times. He’s a home run threat every time he touches it. And you can get him at a great price.
• Like Brown, this is Rico Dowdle’s backfield and no one else. Great upside based on volume and opponent.
• Don’t sleep on the TE’s. Both at under $6K is good value and you can fit them in with 2-3 players up top.

Favorite prop for the game: TBD

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

We had another solid outing by going 3-1 in our plays from last week’s article. The Jets are the only team that prevented us from sweeping. So they are now on my banned list. Well at least banned for backing purposes. I also posted the Packers +3.5 last night hitting yet another Prime-Time game. Keep those post notifications on if you’re tailing as I’m usually waiting for late injury news before finalizing my plays. I will note, we had SF last Sunday night and that was trending nicely until McCaffrey’s injury. Therefore, overall, I was 4-2 in the past week which gets us to the magical 0.500 mark. Let’s keep this rolling as this time of year is the best time to make some extra cash.

Of note, the public went 11-5 last week. Of the 5 “non-public” plays, we were on four of them all weekend with Chicago (Thursday), LV (Friday), Arizona and Carolina. Road teams stole the show going 9-7 ATS in Week 13 with eight outright wins.

As for Survivor, the Broncos did what I expected and forced Jameis into critical turnovers. If it wasn’t for those pick 6’s, the Browns would have come out with a victory. So we breathe a sigh of relief.

NFL BETS WEEK 14 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 32-32-1, game bets only)

ATLANTA FALCONS +5.5 at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

This is the 3rd straight week I’m betting against Minnesota. And if you’ve followed me the previous weeks, then you have some extra cash in your pockets. The Vikings are a very fashionable 10-2, but just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. The market has adjusted and so have other teams. It’s shown, if you have a serviceable QB, you can score on the Vikings. Just ask Goff, Stafford, or Kyler Murray. Since October 6, which is the seven game streak I speak of, those teams have combined for 15 scoring drives against the vaunted Vikings D.

While Kirk Cousins showed his worst last week, throwing 4 INT’s, the Falcons rank as a top 10 offense in yards per game. According to DVOA they are 13th overall, ranking as the 10th best rushing offense and 13th best passing team. And then there’s a little bit of motivation. We saw it with Jerry Jeudy on MNF. While Cousins wasn’t traded, like Jeudy, he wasn’t overly pursued by the Vikings in FA.

The Falcons are at a very low point in their season, and one in which the public sees a vulnerability. I’ll take the return of Kirk and I expect the Falcons to play one of their best games of the season this weekend in Minnesota.

CAROLINA PANTHERS +12.5 at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

The Eagles are coming off of one of the best wins in the 2024 NFL season as they shut down the #1 offense in Baltimore to come away with a 24-19 road victory against one of the AFC’s best. Now they return home, after a two-game road trip where they beat two winning teams, to face one of the worst teams in the NFL. And this is sandwiched between a huge Keystone state showdown next week against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

As for the Panthers, since Bryce Young took over in Week 8, Carolina has been much more competitive and that’s due in part to an uptick in their offensive output. In all, the Panthers have covered four straight winning two of those outright as underdogs.

I fear a lack of motivation in Philly this weekend. We saw it when Cleveland and Jacksonville visited the Linc, with both those teams covering big numbers. And the Eagles have a propensity to allow late garbage time offense, with their last three opponents scoring a TD in the 4th quarter with less than 70 seconds left on the clock. I could definitely see a letdown and backdoor cover here in Philly.

ARIZONA CARDINALS -2.5 vs SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

We backed the Seahawks two weeks ago in their matchup with Arizona. A critical pick-6 from Kyler Murray helped fuel that winning bet. And guess what, Seattle did it again last week as DT Leonard Williams returned an errant Aaron Rodgers pass 92 yards for a score. Take a step back even further, to Week 11, where the Seahawks pulled off a miraculous comeback in San Fran with a Geno Smith rushing TD with only 12 seconds left on the clock. To say it nicely, Seattle is playing with house money. And the house doesn’t lose that often.

On the other side, the Cardinals let one slip away last week in Minnesota. They kicked 5 FG’s and went 1 for 6 in the redzone. Similar to Seattle’s fluky takeaways that turned into scores, the Cardinals lack of production in the redzone is not sustainable (1 for their last 8). I like both these teams fortunes to turn this week as a Cardinals win will further muck-up the NFC West and make the division must watch TV down the stretch.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6.5 vs CLEVELAND BROWNS

The one public team I will back, for a 2nd straight week, is the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are still fuming from their loss in Cleveland two weeks ago. They have revenge on their minds. And as long as Winston is back there “Farve-ing” it, we have high volatility in this game. Meaning we could see a Browns win to a Pittsburgh blowout. I lean to the latter and look for the Steelers to keep up their winning ways this week at home. The other thing to consider, the Steelers were 3.5 to 4 point favorites in Cleveland two weeks ago. The spread is only a few points higher so I think we’re getting a discount here as a road to home flip usually costs 5 to 6 points.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): TBD

SURVIVOR PICK

MIAMI DOLPHINS

If you still have the Dolphins in your pool, this is the week to use them. The Jets have quit. Their QB stinks. The Defense is worse. And there’s no real relief in sight.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 13 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We have a battle of classic AFC teams as the Browns head to Denver to take on the Broncos. As for Win Daily, we’ve had multiple takedowns in the one-game slates, i.e. Showdowns, this year. How many other sites can say that? It’s just proof that the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between the Browns and Broncos. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

A note about tonight’s game is that we have a high point spread and low total as Denver is a 6-point favorite with a game total at 42. Points are a premium tonight with two good defenses taking the field.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Running Back

It’s official, Nick Chubb is back. Even though he returned to action 5 weeks ago, last Thursday was the first game where he flashed fantasy dominance again. Chubb saw 66% of the snaps to Jerome Ford’s 34%. And he received 21 of the 26 touches to RB’s (81%). In the week prior to last, Chubb got just 30% of the snaps. Last week’s game was his highest snap count and touches of the season and we can think his production will ultimately stay here or increase slightly.

Which makes him a good target on tonight’s showdown as Denver has allowed the 15th most fantasy points to RB’s this season. Their advanced metrics are solid, showing up as 4th in rush defense DVOA and 9th in rushing defense rating. But the issue is in pass coverage as they’ve allowed the 2nd most receptions to RB’s (68), 4th most yards (502) and 2nd most receiving TD’s (4).

Chubb has seen only 7 targets and 3 catches this season. So he might not make a huge dent in the passing game but he will get the goal line carries. So keep him in mind tonight.

But also consider Jerome Ford as he’s more of the 3rd down back who does have 26 catches on the season. If the Browns get behind early, the game script could call for more Ford than Chubb.

Tier 1: Nick Chubb

Tier 2: Jerome Ford

Punt:

Wide Receiver

Denver CB Patrick Surtain III is one of the top defensive backs in the league. Which is why the Broncos allow the 2nd least fantasy points to WR’s this season. Coming into Week 12, Patrick Surtain III has the highest rating for any DB in the league according to PFF. Opposite Surtain is Riley Moss who is a significant drop off and one you can target as he’s made just 8 pass breakups and 1 INT on the season while registering 51st overall DB according to PFF.

There is a story here in Denver for one of Cleveland’s WR’s. Former first round pick Jerry Jeudy returns to Denver who traded him away last season. And he’s been on a heater of late, averaging 6 catches per game over the last four games. In those games, he’s received an average of 9 targets. Important note here is Jameis Winston was the starting QB in all of those contests. And he may even know a trick or two on how to beat Surtain. So Jeudy is fully in play tonight based on story and recent play.

Elijah Moore is a top target for Winston too and he primarily works out of the slot adding value to his potential tonight against a tough Denver D.

With Cedric Tillman out, rookie WR Jamari Thrash will likely get the 3rd receiver role. The 5th round pick has only 1 catch on the season but that’s been in limited snaps. Thrash was all All-ACC 2nd team receiver in 2023 for the Louisville Cardinals. He has solid speed and could be very valuable at only a $1000 salary.

Tier 1: Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore

Tier 2: Jamari Thrash

Punts: Jaelon Darden

Tight End

David Njoku disappointed in the snow last week. He missed several catches, including a TD, that could have helped fantasy owners. In total, he had just one catch on five targets.

But the second of those numbers is key as it was tied for 2nd on the team last week. Jameis will continue to feed Njoku the ball and the Broncos are allowing the 20th most points to TE’s this year,

The other factor is backup TE Jordan Akins saw the field a good bit last week and reeled in three of four targets. So he should be considered in your player pool as well.

Tier 1: David Njoku

Tier 2: Jordan Akins

Punt/Fadeable:

DENVER BRONCOS

Running Back

At this point, does anyone really know what the Broncos will do at RB other than HC Sean Payton? In Week 12, Javonte Williams saw 56% of the snaps but just 50% of the touches. And Jaleel McLaughlin outpaced Audric Estime with 7 touches to 3. In Week 11 it was a similar workload for Williams, but Estime out-touched McLaughlin 9 to 4 in that contest. And then we look back at Week 10 and Estime got 45% of the snaps and 76% of the touches when Denver took on KC.

So in a recap, Estime went from leader in the clubhouse 3 weeks ago to seeing just 7% of the snaps and 15% of the touches last week.

Cleveland allows the 8th most rushing yards per game in the league at 130.6. But they’ve done a good job covering RB’s in the passing game allowing the second least receptions to ball carriers on ZERO receiving TD’s.

This is tough spot to favor anyone. Williams is getting 10+ touches the last 2 weeks and was the big winner on their Thursday night showdown back when they played the Saints. But if I trust anyone, it’s Williams. The issue I foresee is Payton flipping back to one of his other RB’s if they get a hot hand. There’s lots of risk here no matter who you play (if any).

Tier 1: Javonte Williams

Tier 2: Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime

Wide Receiver

This is where we get to the good part of this game. Cleveland allows the 5th most fantasy points to opposing WR’s. And their advanced metrics show it could be worse as they have the 2nd worst coverage rating according to PFF. DVOA has the Browns ranked 24th against the pass.

The Denver passing game has been electric of late, especially WR Courtland Sutton. The Broncos #1 WR is the most expensive player on the slate and that’s for good reason. In his last 5 games, he is averaging 7 catches and 93 yards per outing. Combined with his 3 TD’s, that’s good for 22.2 fantasy points per game.

The Browns have only one DB ranked in PFF’s top 100, Denzel Ward. Which is a big reason why they have been attacked regularly through the air.

My second favorite receiver in Denver is Devaughn Vele. The big bodied rookie receiver from Utah is a matchup problem. He’s also on a good streak recording double digit fantasy points in three straight outings.

Denver will rotate their other receivers based on scheme. We saw Mims get 4 targets last week making him an intriguing option for being the lowest salaried of the group. He’s brought in 9 catches in the last 3 games for 106 yards and a TD.

The weather looks calm in Denver tonight with a game time temp around 42 degrees F and light winds. Very good throwing conditions for Nix and his WR’s.

Tier 1: Courtland Sutton

Tier 2: Devaughn Vele

Cheap Options: Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims Jr

Tight End

Adam Trautman and Lucas Krull have a combined 19 catches this season for 254 yards. The Broncos just don’t use the TE much in the passing game. I’d avoid this position unless you had to fill something in. I’d prefer the cheaper Broncos WR’s, such as Mims Jr.

Tier 1: Adam Trautman

Tier 2:

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Bo Nix or Courtland Sutton. The QB’s are both in play as Winston and Nix will look to throw the ball downfield. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I still believe the 2 QB’s are your best options at the CPT spot as well.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton

FDMVP Tier 2: Jameis Winston, Nick Chubb, Jerry Jeudy

FDMVP Tier 3: David Njoku, Javonte Williams

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, Nick Chubb

DK CPT Tier 2:  Jameis Winston, David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy

DK CPT Tier 3: Javonte Williams, Devaughn Vele,

DK CPT Punt: Jerome Ford, Broncos D

Best Rules for the slate:

• The weather looks to be nice for a December night game in Denver. Decent temps and low winds could lead to a happy passing attack.
• I don’t always lock in the top salaried player at CPT, but the Browns pass D is so bad that we have to lock in Sutton as our preferred top scoring player tonight. Reminds me of Mixon against the Cowboys a few weeks ago on MNF.
• If the game script presents itself, I do like the Browns passing game tonight. Playing Nix and Sutton then mixing in Winston, plus 2 receivers and then potentially a cheap RB (Ford, McLaughlin) is one of my preferred ways to go.
• The Denver running game is a mystery. But I still prefer Javonte Williams over the other options. McLaughlin is my second favorite based on his recent uptick in snaps and touches.
• Devaughn Vele is an impressive rookie. I will play him tonight and would be afraid to put him in a lineup with Sutton.
• Jerry Jeudy has been playing well with Winston at QB. And he has some revenge on his mind as the Broncos traded him away.
• Winston can give the ball away at a high rate. Denver’s D is in play. At a 42-point total, their D could even be considered in CPT spot.
• Consider a kicker with the team you have more players on. If someone gets down, they will avoid kicking FG’s.
• Keep an eye on Jamari Thrash. He likely gets a start tonight as Cedrick Tillman is out with a concussion.
• As far as cheaper options in the Denver passing game, I prefer Mims to Franklin. He’s a deep threat that they should give one downfield chance to.
• Jerome Ford could be a hero of this slate if the Browns are down and have to pass almost every down.

Favorite prop for the game: Jerome Ford over 1.5 receptions (-165 BetMGM)

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

We had a solid 3-1 week in our plays in last week’s article. The Colts let us down, but we were able to fade the Lions on Turkey Day to get our revenge. Speaking of that game, in my opinion that last play by the Bears is as much on the QB as it is on the coach. But it’s easier to fire the coach so I totally get what Chicago did on Friday. But looking forward here, we still have a healthy set of games to choose from and we’ll look to keep our streak going and finally climb over the hurdle that’s been so tough for us, that is 0.500.

As for Survivor, the Commanders were a ticking time bomb. We’re seeing their flaws and now they are fighting for their playoff lives.

NFL BETS WEEK 13 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 28-30-1, article plus discord game bets)

NEW YORK JETS +1 vs SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

I realize the Jets are the laughing stock of the league right now. Well, maybe the 2nd most laughable team behind their city partners in the Giants. But take it from someone who has been betting the Seahawks, this is a prime spot for New York to play spoilers. Seattle has struggled to score of late, managing just 36 points in the past 2 week. But coincidentally, they’ve won both of those games by limiting their opponents to 23 points. Some of that has been better play, but the other has been some fortune too as they’ve been outgained in those contests.

But the two wins have propelled them to 1st place in the NFC West and their stock is rising. The Jets were last on the field suffering a brutal defeat to the Indianapolis Colts by a score of 28-27. They’ve now had a week off, but people just remember the bad and their stock is at a low point. Which attracts me to the loveable losers. The money is pouring in on Seattle at an 82% clip. It just looks too easy. And when that’s the case, we zag and fade the money.

ARIZONA CARDINALS +3.5 at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Speaking of another NFC West team, we bring you the Arizona Cardinals who are a confounding team. Riding a 4-game winning streak, the Cardinals laid an egg last week in Seattle scoring just 6 points. And that was coming off a BYE! On the other side, Minnesota is returning home for the first time in 4 weeks. They won all three road games, but struggled to do so winning the three by a combined 18 points. And their competition wasn’t necessarily the cream of the crop as Jacksonville, Tennessee and Chicago have a combined record 9-25.

The factor I’m looking at in this one is Minnesota versus good offenses. Versus teams in the top half of the NFL in offense according to DVOA, the Vikings are 1-2 SU. The Cardinals rank 11th overall in DVOA and averaged 342 yards/game (14th). I think the Cardinals can erase their poor game in Seattle by putting up points in Minnesota and creating turnovers from Sam Darnold, who has 10 INT’s on the season.

CAROLINA PANTHERS +6 vs TAMPA BAY BUCS

The Panthers have shown an increased ability to compete since reinserting QB Bryce Young back into the starting role. They almost pulled off a miracle last week against Kansas City. In fact, they’ve covered three straight games and won 2 of those. While Tampa looked good last week, their defense is not good enough to lay a big number. They play much better as a dog as they’ve lost 3 games outright as a favorite this season.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS +3 at CINCINNATI BENGALS

This is the one game that I’m with the public on. The Bengals pass D is so bad and Pittsburgh has shown an ability to move the ball through the air with Russell Wilson at QB. They will turn those dreaded FG’s to TD’s this week which gives me confidence in this bet. The Bengals are turning into the Chargers and finding ways to lose. I have a bad feeling they’ll do that again this week against a team that finds ways to win.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): TBD

SURVIVOR PICK

DENVER BRONCOS

I hate going against my boy Jameis, but the Broncos present so many issues and I don’t think Cleveland has enough to overcome those. The snow was an equalizer from the Browns against the Steelers. They won their Super Bowl. But now back to reality and I see the Broncos rolling in this one.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 12 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We have a brotherly affair as the Harbaugh brothers face off for family supremacy. Besides the head coaches stealing the show, these are both very good football teams that are battling for seeding in the AFC Playoffs. As for Win Daily, we’ve had multiple takedowns in the one-game slates, i.e. Showdowns, this year. How many other sites can say that? It’s just proof that the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between the Ravens and Chargers. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

A note about tonight’s game is that we have a low point spread and high total in Baltimore -2.5 and 51 points. That is a perfect recipe for a back and forth game which adds many players into our pool.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Running Back

Until last night, the Ravens had the NFL’s leading rusher in Derek Henry. But after Saquon Barkley’s massive SNF game, Henry is now in 2nd and a healthy 207 yards away from the Eagles RB. But that doesn’t overshadow the amazing season that Henry is having at age 30. The Ravens RB is averaging 107 yards per game rushing and has scored a TD in all eleven games this season. He’s proving that there is a lot more left in his tank.

As for the Chargers rush D, they allow the 10th least rushing yards per game in the league at 110.5. And heading into Week 12, they allowed the 3rd lowest fantasy points per game to RB’s. But advanced metrics do see some weak points in those stats as PFF ranks the Chargers 12th in rush defense and DVOA has LA at 15th.

One thing to keep an eye on is the Chargers injury report tonight. LB Denzel Perryman is listed as out. And edge rush Khalil Mack is questionable. That leaves the front seven somewhat thin and vulnerable to a viscous running attack like the one Baltimore deploys.

Also in play is Justice Hill. The 2nd string RB for the Ravens saw a 49% snap usage in Week 11 which was tied with Henry. The game script led to that but it is worth noting as Baltimore has sat Henry for long stretches in previous games too.

Tier 1: Derrick Henry

Tier 2: Justice Hill

Punt:

Wide Receiver

The Ravens have the 4th highest run/pass ratio in the NFL. They will still beat you in the air, but their preferred offensive strategy is to beat you with the legs of Henry, Jackson and Hill. And I honestly believe that could be the strategy tonight as the Chargers have a solid pass rush and defense. The Chargers have the 4th highest pass coverage rating in the NFL according to PFF. And DVOA ranks the Chargers as the 6th best pass D. A lot of that is due to DB’s Kristian Fulton and Tarheeb Still who rank in the top 25 in pass defense this season.

Ultimately, the Ravens do have speed at WR and we saw that produce big problems for the Chargers last week against the Bengals. They were beat deep on several occasions and I see the Ravens trying to take those shots tonight too. The main producer is Zay Flowers, and he is fully in play for all slates. But Rashod Bateman has been a consistent #2 and has led the Ravens in target shares in three games this season. He’s also second on the team with 4 TD receptions.

Tier 1: Zay Flowers

Tier 2: Rashod Bateman

Punts: Nelson Agholor (deep threat who could see one to two opportunities)

Tight End

Since Week 4, Mark Andrews has stepped up his game. He’s averaging 3.8 catches and 44.7 yards per game in that stretch. More importantly, he’s scored 5 TD’s in those 7 games. Isaiah Likely is also in play as he returned with a big outing last week in Pittsburgh, hauling in 4 catches for 75 yards.

The Chargers have allowed the 4th least fantasy points to TE’s this year. They shut out Mike Gesicki from the Bengals last week. And they haven’t allowed at TD to TE’s this year.

While we’ll all be tempted to snag a Ravens TE, I am probably going to fade this position for the most part and focus on the running attack and 1-2 WR’s.

Tier 1: Mark Andrews

Tier 2: Isaiah Likely

Punt/Fadeable:

LA CHARGERS

Running Back

The way to attack the Ravens is through the air. Baltimore allows just 77.5 yards per game on the ground which is 2nd best in football. This could be due to their terrible pass D and teams tend not to run (2nd lowest attempts in league). But the advanced metrics also like Baltimore’s run D as they rank 3rd overall in PFF and 6th in DVOA.

The Chargers do have a solid rushing attack but I believe it is closer to a shared backfield than last week’s stats will show. JK Dobbins hardly touched the ball but got to his numbers with a late TD run. Gus Edwards was the back on the field early in the game. And for some idiotic reason, Hasaan Haskins has seen four goal line carries in the past 2 weeks.

I’d tread carefully here against a really good Ravens D. My preferred option is Edwards but I don’t have high confidence in any of them. Even if it is a revenge match.

Tier 1: JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards

Tier 2: Hasaan Haskins

Wide Receiver

As we mentioned earlier, you attack Baltimore through the air. They prefer man-to-man and frankly, they don’t do it well. Teh Ravens allow the most yards passing per game at 284.5. Additionally, they allow the most fantasy points to WR’s.

Ladd McConkey is questionable tonight with a shoulder injury. So we have to keep an eye on that. But Quentin Johnson is the one to keep a tighter eye on. He has 6 TD catches this season and has recorded a touchdown catch in each of the last three games. He’s the deep threat in this offense as he saw eight targets last week.

Tier 1: Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnson

Tier 2: Josh Palmer

Cheap Options: Derius Davis

Tight End

Will Dissly had a huge game last week going for 4 catches and 80 yards against the Bengals. No surprise here, but Baltimore is bad against TE’s too. They’ve allowed the most receiving yards to that position coming into Week 11.

Tier 1: Will Dissly

Tier 2:

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Lamar Jackson, Derek Henry or Justin Herbert. The QB’s look to have the best upside based on the opposing defenses weaknesses. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I still believe the 2 QB’s are your best options at the CPT spot as well.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Derek Henry, Lamar Jackson

FDMVP Tier 2: Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey

FDMVP Tier 3: Zay Flowers, Quentin Johnson, Will Dissly

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Derek Henry, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert

DK CPT Tier 2:  Ladd McConkey, Zay Flowers

DK CPT Tier 3: Quentin Johnson, Will Dissly, Justice Hill

DK CPT Punt: Mark Andrews, Josh Palmer

Best Rules for the slate:

• The story of this slate is that we have two QB’s who can attack the other defense. I expect a heavy dose of Lamar Jackson running the ball. Also, you may have heard but he’s awesome on Prime Time games.
• Don’t sleep on Justin Herbert. He faces the worst pass defense in the league. He lit up the Bengals last week who look like the Steel Curtain compared to the Ravens.
• Derek Henry scores TD’s. And to keep the Chargers pass rush at arms length, I expect the Ravens to use a heavy does of Henry tonight. I LOVE him in all spots but we have to find a way to fit him in with LJack on most lineups.
• Ladd McConkey is an impressive rookie. If he plays, he’ll be my favorite Chargers WR.
• Quentin Johnson is seeing the field and a high rate of targets. He has a chance to break the slate.
• I’m fading the defenses tonight.
• If you play a 4/2 or 5/1 stack, consider a kicker.
• Keep an eye on Nelson Agholor. I think the Ravens will take 1-2 deep shots to a cheap option.
• Justice Hill is a copy cat of Chase Brown. And we saw Brown have a big game last week against LA. If fading Henry, put Hill in your lineup. I don’t like both in the same lineup.

Favorite prop for the game: 

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Another week with high hopes went south as we went just 2-2 overall. But we once again hit on our Prime-Time games with winners on MNF with the Texans and on TNF with the Jameis Winston led Cleveland Browns. The public had a solid week, winning over 50% of the games. But I still see opportunities this week to fade the general consensus, as witnessed with the Browns on Thursday.

As for Survivor, we are still cooking in the main contest as a Detroit victory was sealed by the end of the 1st Q. This week brings a few options to use unpopular teams and we’re going to have to roll the dice as the pool of available teams is getting thinner by the week.

NFL BETS WEEK 12 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 24-27-1)

CHICAGO BEARS +3.5 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS

We’re going back to the Bears this week as they paid us off last week with a cover against their hated rivals in the Packers. I’m still not a believer of Sam Darnold and think this Bears D can present some real problems for him. The Vikings typically play the Bears well, as they have won five of the last six contests. However, the Bears won the last game they played, stunning the Vikings and creating 4 turnovers along the way. The Vikings come into this game with the 5th most turnovers in the league at 17. On the other side, the Bears have created 17 turnovers and are third best in the league with a +9 differential. I believe in a modified offensive game, the Bears will win the TO battle and come out with a rare victory against their rivals from the north.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +7.5 vs DETROIT LIONS

Another thrashing by the Lions as they pummeled the Jaguars 52-6 last week and outgained them by almost 500 yards. The Lions have done this before, and in the following week had tough games. In Week 6 they beat Dallas by 38 only to squeak out a win in Week 7 over Minnesota by 2 points. They are clearly the betting public’s favorite team right now which makes this spot dangerous. Detroit is seeing 82% of the bets on the spread and 72% of the money.

TAMPA BAY BUCANNEERS -5.5 at NEW YORK GIANTS

The Giants are one of the most poorly managed franchisees in all of sports. The fact that they cut QB Daniel Jones is crazy. But then they simply skipped over their #2 QB in Drew Lock and handed the ball to a manufactured gimmick in Tommy Devito is more crazy. I’m banking on the Bucs rest combined with the Giants situation to be keys to fuel Tampa to victory. The addition of Mike Evans is also a key component to this game as the Giants rank 24th against the pass according to DVOA.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +1.5 vs ARIZONA CARDINALS

I’m not sure if the Seahawks are back. But they did display grit and determination last week in their comeback win against the 49ers. The interesting point is this was coming off the bye week where they had some interesting moves, including a sudden retirement of their starting center, Connor Williams, at the young age of 27. What it told me is that rookie HC Mike MacDonald took a global view of this team and instituted major changes. And the biggest move was their philosophy change in the passing game. Seattle led the league in pass ratio prior to the bye but came out of Week 11 with a 58% rate. They were at 66% for the season coming into that game. This is a key in handicapping this game as Arizona allows 127.5 rushing yards per game, 13th highest in the NFL.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): TBD

SURVIVOR PICK

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Jayden Daniels hasn’t looked great of late, but he hasn’t played for 10 days so I expect to see the best version of him. And has anyone seen the Cowboys play of late? They can’t stay within 20 points of teams.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 11 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We have a battle of Texas as the Cowboys and Texans square off in Big D. As for Win Daily, we’ve had multiple takedowns in the one-game slates, i.e. Showdowns, this year. How many other sites can say that? It’s just proof that the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between Houston and Dallas. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

A note about tonight’s game is that we have a rather high point spread and low game total; Houston -7 and 41. This brings into play both kickers and a defense. It also may put stronger emphasis on TD scorers vice high volume cacthers.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

HOUSTON TEXANS

Running Back

The Texans average 119.4 yards/game on the ground, which is good 14th best in football. Conversely, they are just 23rd in run blocking grading and 24th in rush offense DVOA. So even though the yards are decent, they aren’t a very productive running team. But the good news is, they get a chance to improve those numbers tonight as they face the 27th rated rush defense according to DVOA. In fact, the Cowboys allow the 2nd most rushing yards per game at 152.1 and the 2nd most fantasy points to running backs.

So that means we are in full Joe Mixon mode tonight. He’s got the best possible matchup an RB could have besides facing the Carolina Panthers. And while Micah Parsons did return last week, the Boys still got pummeled on the ground allowing 187 rushing yards to the Eagles (130 of that to RB’s). As for Mixon, he received 76% of the snaps last week and 27 of the 28 touches to RB’s. The latter was the second highest for any RB in Week 10. He’s clearly the workhorse and will see the lion’s share of touches tonight.

RB Dameon Pierce returns for the Texans tonight. He’s been out the last two weeks with a groin injury. But in the three weeks he’s suited up to backup Mixon, he’s received just 6 carries total. So I don’t deem him as a threat to stealing away touches from Mixon and I will not consider him in my lineups bases on other value we can find.

Tier 1: Joe Mixon

Tier 2: N/A

Punt: Dameon Pierce

Wide Receiver

The big news for the Texans tonight is the return of WR Nico Collins. Their star WR has been out since week 5 with a hamstring injury. He was activated last week but sat out for precautionary reasons. Reports out of Houston are saying he’s fully healthy and should have no restrictions on routes. On the year, Nico is averaging 23.1 fantasy points, which puts him 2nd in the NFL behind only Ja’Marr Chase. So he’s obviously a targeted player for us.

Tank Dell has 15 catches in the past 3 weeks. He’s clearly the #2 in Houston and could have a big game depending how Dallas decides to cover Nico.

John Metchie was the big winner of the secondary Texans WR”s as he racked up 6 targets in Week 10, en route to 5 catches for 74 yards and a TD.

Xavier Hutchinson will likely fall back to 4th WR duty. He will only provide value if he gets in the endzone as his snap count is projected under 30%.

Tier 1: Nico Collins

Tier 2: Tank Dell, John Metchie

Punts: Xavier Hutchinson

Tight End

The TE position has been a mysterious void for the Texans this year. Dalton Schultz has just 29 receptions and 310 yards in 10 games. And he’s yet to find the endzone. The Cowboys have defended TE’s quite well, allowing the 7th least receiving yards to that position. If they’ve had any issues, it’s the endzone as they’ve allowed 4 TD’s to TE’s (T-8th most). But as we see with Schultz’s stats, the Texans don’t look to the TE’s in the redzone much.

If anything, Cade Stover could be an under the radar look this week. He did get one target in the redzone last

Tier 1: Dalton Schultz

Tier 2:

Punt/Fadeable: Cade Stover

DALLAS COWBOYS

Running Back

The Cowboys really screwed up when they didn’t go after an RB in the offseason. But after their recent embarrassing loss, and their loss of QB Dak Prescott, makes me fully believe they’ll commit to the run tonight. However, the issue is the Houston Texans are 2nd in DVOA against the run. I do think Rico Dowdle will get the majority of the carries but he’s got a very tough matchup so don’t go heavy on him.

Tier 1: Rico Dowdle

Tier 2: Ezekiel Elliott

Wide Receiver

Houston has the 2nd best defense overall. Which leads to them having the 4th best pass defense DVOA. But, they do allow yards and TD’s to WR’s making them 22nd against receivers for fantasy points. This leads to a very tough matchup for Dallas receivers. But not just because of the Texans pass D, but because Cooper Rush is trash. He threw for just 40 yards last week against the Eagles.

I do think Cee Dee Lamb is going to bounce back tonight. He can be moved around and match up against the weakest corner. Plus the Texans play zone a ton which can allow Lamb to find the soft spots.

As for the secondary receivers, the Cowboys paid a price for Mingo and he will see more snaps tonight. So I’ve moved him up into Tier 2.

Tier 1: CeeDee Lamb

Tier 2: Jalen Tolbert, Jonathan Mingo

Cheap Options: Jalen Brooks, Kevontae Turpin,

Tight End

My favorite Cowboys receiver tonight is Jake Ferguson. The Texans give up the 3rd least points to TE’s. But a tight end can be the short passer (Cooper Rush) friend.

Tier 1: Jake Ferguson

Tier 2:

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Joe Mixon and CeeDee Lamb. They also have the TD equity and big play potential compared to their peers which is important on FanDuel. The WR corps seem to be the best area to get our value and win the slate. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Joe Mixon, CeeDee Lamb

FDMVP Tier 2: Nico Collins, CJ Stroud

FDMVP Tier 3: Cooper Rush, Rico Dowdel, Jake Ferguson

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Joe Mixon, CJ Stroud, CeeDee Lamb

DK CPT Tier 2: Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Jake Ferguson

DK CPT Tier 3: Tank Dell, Rico Dowdel, TEXANS D

DK CPT Punt: Cooper Rush

Best Rules for the slate:

• The story of this slate is that we have to dial in on a Texans star for CPT. Yes, the Cowboys could produce one but I’m more focused on choosing between Mixon, Stroud, Collins and Texans D.
• Cooper Rush could be a sneaky play. He was terrible against the Eagles but was 5-1 in his previous 6 starts.
• Joe Mixon is easily my favorite CPT. He has a GREAT matchup.
• I have a feeling this could be a Cee Dee Lamb game.
• I like Jake Ferguson as my safest option for the Cowboys receiving game.
• I’m fading the Cowboys run game for the most part.
• If you play a 4/2 or 5/1 stack, consider a kicker.
• Consider playing the Texans D on your slate tonight.
• Remember, this is close to a playoff game for the Cowboys. I think it’ll be low scoring but they will hang tight. That opens you up to playing both kickers.

Favorite prop for the game: 

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

We’re on fire when it comes to Prime Time games, winning all 3 standalone games last weekend and then taking down last night’s game between the Commanders and Eagles. The problem is, I couldn’t come through on the Sunday day games and we’re still below 0.500. But the hot streak is coming and no better time than now. This weekend has so many huge games, with none bigger than Kansas City at Buffalo. So let’s enjoy the best weekend of the NFL season and make some money along the way.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re still alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday. We did hit on our pick last week with the Chargers. We’re still alive and keep it rolling this week.

NFL BETS WEEK 11 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 21-24-1)

CLEVELAND BROWNS +1 at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The symmetry in this game is mind boggling. Let start with the Browns and Jameis Winston. In his first start, just 3 weeks ago, the Browns upset the Ravens. They used the energy from the QB change to propel themselves to victory. Unfortunately, the energy dissipated in his second start and the Browns fell to the Chargers.

The Saints had maximum energy last week after a coaching change as interim HC Darren Rizzi won his first game in an upset of the Falcons last week. Everyone saw Rizzi’s energy, and the Saints were fueled by that. But here is game two under the new HC, and can they continue that high level of play. Or is a letdown inevitable, just like we saw with the Browns and Jameis in their 2nd game.

There’s also the motivation of Jameis Winston coming back to New Orleans to play a game. Winston played the last 4 years for the Saints and had some memorable moments. Additionally, the Browns are coming off a bye week and have had time to prepare for the Saints. For those reasons, and the expected letdown coming from NO following a great emotional victory, and I like the Browns to take home a W in a battle of last place teams in their respective divisions.

DENVER BRONCOS -1.5 vs ATLANTA FALCONS

The Broncos, like many other teams, had the Chiefs down and out. But somehow, the Chiefs won in miracle fashion, again, and sent the Broncos to their 5th defeat of the season. However, we need to take away from that game the competitiveness of the Broncos and how they are much closer to being a contender than being a pretender. Bo Nix has continued to improve, throwing for 5 TD’s and just 1 INT over the past four weeks.

On the other hand, Atlanta is a smoke and mirrors type team. Which is typical of Kirk Cousins past seasons. The Falcons lead the division at 6-4, but are just +2 in point differential. They are 5-2 in one score games this season and have been on the fortunate side of some good breaks. But as we saw in NO last week, those types of good breaks don’t last forever.

To me, Denver is the better team. And playing in the mile high altitude is difficult for opponents. Especially ones that hardly play in Denver like Atlanta. Give me the Broncos to pull off the win this week and stay closely packed in the AFC Wild Card race.

CHICAGO BEARS +6.5 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS

If this game was played 3 weeks ago, when the Bears were coming off three straight wins and sitting pretty at 4-2, this spread would have likely been in Chicago’s favor. However, the last three weeks did happen, and we know Chicago has looked dreadful of late which has resulted in them being a home dog of almost a touchdown to their divisional foes, the Green Bay Packers. The point here is similar to why we liked the Dolphins up in Buffalo two weeks ago, a 7-8 point shift in a line over 3 weeks seems like too much. There’s also some data showing sharp money coming in on the Bears which is pushing it down below 6 points in some markets.

In short, the Bears D has created 16 turnovers this season which is top 5 in the NFL. This is important because they’re facing a Packers team that has thrown 10 INT’s, which is tied for 4th most in the league. I expect the Bears D to be able to give the Packers trouble and keep their offense in the game. I also expect, the change at offensive coordinator will help the Bears have a more sophisticated passing game but also utilize the running game much more. Afterall, the Bears rank as the 13th best run blocking unit per PFF. The issue is, the Bears have the 8th highest pass rate at 63%.

TENNESSEE TITANS +6 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The Vikings are sitting pretty at 7-2 and in 2nd place in the NFC North. But the football they’ve been playing of late isn’t very pretty. They are coming off an ugly 5-point victory in Jacksonville where they managed just 12 points on four FG’s. Before that, they barely squeaked by a Colts team led by Joe Flacco, who are spiraling downwards with three straight losses. And flip it one week before that where the Vikings lost by 10 to the Rams, who by the way looked abysmal this past Monday night.

They get an opportunity to get back on track today against another poor football team in the Tennessee Titans. But I see this as a spot as the Vikings are playing their 3rd road game in four weeks. And the Titans, at 2-7, will have to play this like a playoff game (or at least treat it like one) and I expect them to show some pride, similar to the Jags last week. Lastly, three of the four Titans home games have been one-score games. They play tough(er) at home and will have a shot against a Vikings team that has shown some signs of weakness of late.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): New York Jets -4

SURVIVOR PICK

DETROIT LIONS

If you still have Detroit left, this is the perfect week to use them. Jacksonville is terrible. And Detroit just played their worst game of the season and still won. They’ll have motivation to clean it up this week and come home with a big W.

If you don’t have Detroit available, consider the Houston Texans.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.