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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for Week Six

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We rebounded nicely in Week 5 of the NFL by winning three of our four bets. I’m now 12-8 on the season with a 60% win rate. While that’s solid, the public went bananas against the books by going 12-2 ATS last week (based on # of bets placed). The only true win that Vegas had was in the England game where the Jaguars covered and won outright as a dog against Buffalo. That makes four straight winning weeks for the public so tread carefully this week, or ride the wave.

Looking as season long data, there has been no separation between favorites and underdogs as they are split down the middle with an identical 38-38-2 record ATS. We have seen the road teams cover slightly more often than the home teams, with a record of 40-36-2. But more impressively, the public has won at a 62.5% clip.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 12-8 (last week 3-1)

NFL BETS WEEK 6

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +3.5 at CINCINNATI BENGALS

I backed the Bengals last week and they came through in a big way by beating the Cardinals by 14 points. That game prompted post-game quotes from Ja’Marr Chase that he’s always open like a 7-11 store. Typical wide receiver talk and it was good to see Cincinnati finally feed their star the ball. But there’s trouble lying this week with Seattle. First, the Seahawks are coming off a bye week and are fresh coming across the country. Secondly, in their last game against the Giants, they sacked QB Daniel Jones eleven times. And while the Giants grade as the lowest pass blocking unit, the Bengals aren’t much better as they are the 7th worst OL in pass blocking.

The Seahawks have allowed a few big games to WR’s this season, but they own the 5th best defensive line according to pass rush rate. When we flip to the other sides of the ball, Seattle owns the 11th best run block offensive grade but the Bengals have the 3rd worst rushing defense in the NFL according to DVOA. The week off, plus the big advantage at the line of scrimmage, will keep the Seahawks in this game if not see them win it outright.

TAMPA BAY BUCS +3 vs DETROIT LIONS

The Buccaneers, like the Seahawks above, are coming off a bye-week. They also had an impressive win before getting a week off to rest as they smoked the New Orleans Saints in Week 4. And now that they’ve bottle up that good energy for 2 weeks, they get to uncork it against a Detroit team that is coming in somewhat short-handed. That’s because they’ve already ruled out RB Jahmyr Gibbs and LG Jonah Jackson. Additionally, rookie TE Sam LaPorta is listed as questionable. That would be a huge blow to a passing game that will be sorely needed against the Bucs who are rated as the 2nd best pass defense according to DVOA.

And while that’s just a small piece of the game side of things, the real reason I’m backing Tampa is due to the money and bets coming in as of this writing. Detroit opened as a 3.5 point favorite and has 76% of the bets and 54% of the money. Yet, the spread has moved in Tampa’s favor down to 3. Yes, that may be partly due to the aforementioned injuries, but it’s also a sign Vegas is not willing to give the hook to Tampa backers even though that’s the side they need. When we see a situation like this, they’re seeing sharp money come in on one side, and that’s likely the case here in Tampa. I’ll ride with the sharps, as well as the Creamsicle jerseys, this weekend in Tampa.

HOUSTON TEXANS +1.5 vs NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Here’s the first game where I will back the public. The Houston Texans have competed in every game to date and could easily be 3-2 and tied for the AFC South lead. But they let one get away last week against the Falcons and lost on a last-second FG. And they now move onto another NFC South opponent in the New Orleans Saints. The difference in this one is that they are home where they are 1-1 ATS and 1-1 SU (opposed to 1-2 SU on the road).

What I like in this one is that fact that is the Saints are 1-3-1 ATS on the season. Their first cover of the season was last week at New England where they got a defensive touchdown early and held the Patriots to just 156 total yards of offense. But this isn’t Mac Jones as the Texans have only turned the ball over twice this season. The Saints, on the other hand, are 6th in the NFL in takeaways with nine. Something will have to give in this one and if the Saints aren’t creating TOs then the Texans will be able to move the ball and put points on the board.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +2.5 at ATLANTA FALCONS

Honestly, I have no idea how this spread is just two points. But then I looked into a few factors and started to realize we have a live dog on our hands with Washington. First off, Atlanta covered the spread in Week 1 versus Carolina but is 0-4 ATS since that game. Secondly, Washington has played just two games on the road but is 2-0 ATS away from home. The Commanders are coming off an embarrassing defeat to the Bears but have extra days to right the ship since their last game was a Thursday Night Football game. Add to that Atlanta has won two games at home where they were favorites of 3 points or less, and failed to cover in both.

I see the odds stacking up nicely here for Washington to move the ball in the air against the Falcons who rank 25th in the NFL in passing defense DVOA. And Washington’s defensive weakness is Atlanta’s issue as well, as both struggle in the passing game. Give me the Commanders to continue their road efficiency and pull of the upset in the ATL.

SURVIVOR PICK BUFFALO BILLS

For transparency, I took the Kansas City Chiefs on TNF and kept my Survivor Pool alive without having to sweat a Sunday or Monday game. So, to be short here, my favorite picks outside of that are in the following order:

Buffalo Bills vs NYG: Bills get Tyrod Taylor this week. And they’re coming off a loss. This one could get ugly.
Miami Dolphins vs Carolina: The Dolphins are averaging 55.5 points per game at home. Carolina has the worst defense in football according to DVOA. Good luck Frank Reich.
San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland: With DeShaun Watson out, the Browns turn to Dorian-Thompson Robinson. DTR threw three INT’s in backup duty for Watson last game. And now he faces the best defense in football. Ouch.
LA Rams vs Arizona: The Rams impressed me last week. If they can keep a clean pocket for Stafford, he can still pick you apart. And with the return of Cooper Kupp, that should happen this week in LA. Cardinals are beat up and can keep it close. This is a risky pick but one that could reap benefits later in the season if you’re able to save a top team like the 49ers, Dolphins or Bills.

Good luck all and keep the win streak alive!

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NCAA Football DFS Gems for Oct. 13

Dave Gloeckner & Joel Schreck 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner & Joel Schreck

Gloeck (@dgloeck) and Schrek (@draftmasterflex) are back on a Friday Night to help you set your #CFB #dfs lineups for Week 7.

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS RB Report Card for Week 6

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We had a great NFL Week 5 here at the Running Back Report Card. I hit on 4 of the top 5 RB’s in terms of scoring. And more importantly I recommended avoiding certain high priced, high ownership plays such as Joe Mixon and Derrick Henry. Now if we could have seen Zack Moss ripping up the number one rushing defense with his backfield partner suited up for the first time this season. That would have put an A+ on the card but instead I’ll settle for a solid A and carry that momentum into Week 6. Speaking of this upcoming card, unlike last week when we recommended lower salary RB’s, we have a case for many top level backs considering their matchups.

Please check out Stix’s weekly projections when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also, remember to check out the NFL Pre-Lock Show on Sunday at 11 am on YouTube.

I highlight my favorite ten RBs each week and break them into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). So, let’s get started with the top ten running backs of Week 3 in the NFL.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

DAVID MONTGOMERY $7300 DraftKings $9400 FanDuel

It’s crazy to think that David Montgomery sits here in Week 6 as the third highest salaried RB on the slate. But it’s well deserved as he’s averaging 22.0 DK points per game and getting over 70% of the snaps. As for usage, he has 93 touches which is the 8th most in the NFL. And that’s with missing one game! Otherwise, Montgomery would easily be perched around the #2 or #3 position as far as touches go.

This week he faces the Tampa Bay Bucs who are ranked 21st in rushing defense according to DVOA. It’s hard to gage exactly what this Bucs D is against the run as they have played only one close game this season and that was against the pass-happy Vikings. But in the game they lost to the Eagles, Philadelphia committed to the run and gained 201 yards rushing. And in their last game against the Saints, in which they won by 17 points, New Orleans abandoned the run but their RBs had 14 catches. I’m looking at a closer game here, and one in which the Lions will feed Montgomery. So he’s inline for another big workload and against a D that has surrendered good games to RBs this season.

TRAVIS ETIENNE $7100 DraftKings $9000 FanDuel

The Jags are back in the States after spending the last two weeks in England. But they are coming home with two massive wins, against the Falcons and Bills. as they look to build on that versus a Division opponent this week in the Colts. For all the noise behind Trevor Lawrence’s consistency, the one thing that has been consistent is Travis Etienne and his usage rate. Etienne is 5th in the NFL with a 78% usage rate and 2nd in the league in touches with 113. And he’s coming off his first 100-yard rushing game of the season last week against the Bills.

As for the Colts, they are allowing the 12th most fantasy points to RBs. And they are ranked 17th in rushing defense DVOA. More importantly, the Jags and Colts have already faced off this year and in that contest, Etienne received 23 touches and scored 21.4 fantasy points. He’s my favorite back in Tier 1 this week as his opportunities will be high and the Colts have been allowing points to RBs.

JOSH JACOBS $7000 DraftKings $9000 FanDuel

It’s a Josh McDaniels reunion party in Vegas this week as he welcomes in his old team, the New England Patriots, to town. Both teams are looking to find an identity on offense as their struggles are being magnified each week. In fact, these are the two lowest scoring teams in the league with the Patriots at 11 ppg and Raiders at 15.8 ppg. So it’s not a favorable game environment but there are still pieces here to deploy. And that starts with Josh Jacobs.

As is the theme with our first two backs in this tier, Jacobs is an every down back that is in 7th in snaps at 78% and 3rd in touches with 105. The Patriots are allowing the 11th most points to RBs which included a big week to Alvin Kamara in Week 5 (19.7 DK points). Jacobs has a similar skill-set to Kamara’s and is a threat in the passing game which should bode well against a New England defense that has allowed 6 catches per game to RBs.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

ALVIN KAMARA $6800 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

Kamara has given the New Orleans offense a much-needed boost. In his first two games back in the lineup, he’s garnered 70% of the snaps and 73% of the touches. And this week, he gets a dream matchup facing the Texans. As we all know, the Texans run D has been at the bottom of the league for several years now. They have improved this season but are still ranked in the bottom 3rd of the league in most categories. According to DVOA, they are the 22nd ranked defensive rushing unit. And PFF ranks them as the 2nd worst rushing defense in the league. So I’ll trust the advanced stats here and expect the Saints to see the same.

KENNETH WALKER III $6700 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

Kenneth Walker opened the season with some questions as the Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet to provide competition in the backfield. Well Walker has answered those questions as he’s getting 68% of the snaps and 65% of the touches. He’s also scored five rushing touchdowns this season which is noteworthy since it shows he’s getting the goal line carries.

His opponent this week is the Cincinnati Bengals who have been terrible against the run. Cincy is the 30th ranked rush defense according to DVOA. And they’ve allowed the second most rushing yards to date (770 yards). This is a smash spot for Walker and one in which he should take advantage of both on the ground and in the air.

KYREN WILLIAMS $6500 DraftKings $6900 FanDuel

The Rams didn’t attack the Eagles D so it was an off week for Kyren Williams. But he gets a great matchup this week in the Arizona Cardinals who are allowing the 5th most points to RB’s. The other good news is that Williams has six rushing TDs so far this season. This should be a prime week for the Rams to reinvent their running game.

RAHEEM MOSTERT $6400 DraftKings $6900 FanDuel

Mostert is in a great game environment against the Panthers this weekend. Carolina is allowing the 2nd most fantasy points to RBs. And with Achane now on IR, the backfield is Mostert’s and Wilson’s. And in this scenario I will back Mostert as the lead dog.

D’Andre Swift $6100 DraftKings $6900 FanDuel

As we like to say here in Philly, each week is someone’s week. Last week it was a Goedert week. The week before it was an AJ week. This week is going to be a Swift week as the Eagles will look to avoid Sauce Gardner and take advantage of a Jets defensive front that is allowing the 8th most points to RBs.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

ALEXANDER MATTISON $5600 DraftKings $7600 FanDuel

I believe the transition from Mattison to Akers is coming. But for one more week, I’ll ride the Mattision bandwagon. He gets a great matchup against the Bears who are allowing the 3rd most points to RBs. And they are 29th in rushing defense DVOA. Add in the fact that Jefferson is out, the Vikings should be focused on the run game and incorporating Mattison more.

D’ONTAE FOREMAN DraftKings $4400 FanDuel $6100

For the record, I prefer Roschon Johnson over Foreman. But as of this writing, Johnson hasn’t practiced due to a concussion. So the value on Foreman is too good to pass up especially if he gets the lead role.

RB PROP BETS

WILL BE UPDATED ON FRIDAY

Now that you finished reading the NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFL Sports Betting

NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for Week Five

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Four weeks in and we hit our first losing weekend of the season. Fading the public has resulted in negative results to date. But that doesn’t mean we should change our formula or plan of attack. This season is a long sprint and past data shows that we can stay on top as long as we are consistent. As for survivor, we stayed alive albeit barely. The Eagles won in OT against their Division rival Commanders to let us stay afloat. For my pool, there are just 15 people left and I have two of those entries. I hope you have a similar script and if so I’ll give you my top play of the week below.

As always, I like to look at some of the trends from the previous week. For week 4, it was all about the public once again as they went 10-5-1 ATS (over 50% of bets made on a side). Overall favorites were 9-6-1 on the week and covered several big lines including the 49ers spread over the Cardinals. Vegas is waiting for a reckoning, and it might come as soon as Week 5. As always, they will get their money back, but the key is to find out when.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 9-7 (last week 2-2)

NFL BETS WEEK 5

PITTSBURGH +4.5 vs BALTIMORE

I played Pittsburgh in Week 2 which was following an embarrassing defeat. We are in a very similar situation as the Steelers are coming off one of their worst performances in several seasons. In Week 4, they lost to the Houston Texans by a score of 30-6 and were outgained by over 200 yards to a rookie QB. This made four straight weeks in which the Steelers were outgained but yet they are still 2-2.

While this was somewhat predictable in parts because the Steelers offense is unequipped to battle with top teams, they are in an advantageous position this week as Baltimore comes to town. First off, Steelers HC Mike Tomlin is notorious for bouncing back after a loss. In fact, the Steelers have won their last six games as a home underdog following a road loss. And looking back at this series as a whole, the underdogs have covered the spread seven straight times.

Baltimore is also playing it’s third road game in their last four weeks. All three of those are against Division opponents. Finally, the public is backing the Ravens heavily as 66% of the bets and 70% of the money is coming in on Baltimore so far. One week doesn’t define a team but last week’s optics put the Steelers in a poor perspective for public bettors. Instead, I see value in Pittsburgh this week and think they’re live for an outright win against their heated rival.

NEW YORK GIANTS +12.5 at MIAMI DOLPHINS

The Giants laid a big fat egg on MNF in Week 4 against the Seahawks. And there is little reason for hope and optimism with Big Blue. Their QB, Daniel Jones, is underperforming but the O-Line isn’t helping as they allowed 11 sacks to Seattle last week.

But here’s the thing, 97% of the money and 90% of the bets have come in on Miami. I haven’t seen a situation, or a game, where Vegas would be setup to lose that badly.

This is a close your eyes and pray type of bet, but similar to the Chiefs last week against the Jets, the bets on this game is too lopsided and feels like a setup. In 2022, double digit underdogs went 19-9-1 ATS. They haven’t fared as well in 2023, but the data set has been too small as we’ve seen only four games with double digit spreads.

I’ll take Vegas, and the recent trend of big dogs covering, when placing my Giants bet this week. It’s risky, but to me worth the backing in this spot.

CINCINATTI BENGALS -3 vs ARIZONA CARDINALS

We have two teams sitting at 1-3 but also pointing in different directions. Up until last week, the Cardinals were competitive in every game and even pulled off a huge upset against the Cowboys. Because of that positive play, they are sitting as 3-1 ATS on the season.

Cincinnati on the other hand has been playing terrible football. They are 1-3 overall and 1-3 ATS but could easily be 0-4 if the Rams didn’t let them off the hook two weeks ago. Last week felt rock-bottom as the Tennessee Titans dominated the Bengals on both sides of the ball.

So as both teams are headed in different directions, we’ll never see an opportunity like the one presented to back the Bengals. Preseason odds had this spread at -7 or higher. The Bengals were one of the top four teams in Super Bowl futures betting while the Cardinals were last. Yet, we now have polar opposites in terms of play and now the spread is just Cincinnati -3.

There comes a point when the Bengals will just simply have to wake up and play better and I’m betting it’s this week in Arizona. The road can be the best place for a struggling team and can offer a place for them to bond and focus on football only. I’ll bet this is the week the Bengals finally straighten things out and start to play like the team we all expected they were.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +5.5 at BUFFALO BILLS

This is a proverbial road game for Jacksonville but in reality, they are closer to home than their opponent. The reason for that is this game is being played in England where the Jaguars have a minimum of one game per year. And in this case, it’ll be their second straight game playing overseas making them that more comfortable and ready for the environment and travel.

The other factor in play is the lopsided action on this game. As of right now, the Bills are getting 75% of the bets and 89% of the money. A classic case of over-perception on one team as Buffalo is coming off one of the most impressive wins of the season when they beat the Dolphins 48-20.

SURVIVOR PICK MIAMI DOLPHINS

The Eagles made it closer than it needed to be last week against the Commanders. But they prevailed in OT and got the most important stat of all, a Win. So we move forward and I’m going to roll with the Dolphins this week. Even though I’m taking the Giants with the points, they don’t have enough firepower to keep up with the Dolphins Fast and Furious offense. The GMen will do their best to avoid a 1-4 start and will give a spirited effort. But Miami is too skilled, and too fast, for the Giants to pull off the upset.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFL DFS RB Report Card for Week 5

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

It was a hot and cold week for the RBs in Week 4. After staring at the report card, I’d grade the Week 4 Report as a B. The hot part was smoking as our Tier 1 RBs, Christian McCaffrey and Josh Jacobs, combined for 79.6 DK points and were two of the top four RBs on the board. The cold part was most everything else, as only James Cook and Jaylen Warren were recommended backs that returned a 2x value or more.

Looking ahead to Week 5, four teams are on bye, so our set of available games is ten this week. And that makes Tier 1 very light as there are only three RBs with salaries over $7K. As always, the backs will play a significant role in your lineups, but this week, we’ll have to capitalize in Tiers 2 and 3.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

SAQUON BARKLEY $8100 DraftKings $9400 FanDuel

Advocating Barkley all hinges on his ankle and how it feels going into Sunday. But if he’s cleared to play, he has a great matchup waiting in the Miami Dolphins. For one, the Giants are a hot mess and were embarrassed on MNF last week. Daniel Jones was sacked 11 times and barely had any clean pockets to throw from. Teams can do that when there is no threat in the running game to help slow down the pass rush and prevent teams from bringing blitzes. The Giants know this, and the best way to create time in the passing game is to establish the run. Which they will be very focused on doing this week.

And the other factor to consider is the Dolphins and their porous run defense. The Dolphins are ranked 29th in rushing defense DVOA. Additionally, they’ve allowed the 8th most fantasy points to RBs this season and the 4th most touchdowns. The biggest issue is the game script. But if the Giants play with better balance, there is an opportunity for Saquon to put up 20+ points. He is in my player pool for that reason alone, but I have better options below.

BIJAN ROBINSON $7700 DraftKings $9000 FanDuel

Bijan Robinson is that dude. He runs with power and agility. And while he’s received over 75% of the carries over the past three weeks and is in the top 8 in touches, Atlanta still needs to find him the ball more. That’s because he is just 22nd in the league in carries, trailing Josh Kelly and Alexander Mattison. Factor into that: the Falcons are 31st in passing offense DVOA and have struggled to move the ball consistently through the air (unless it’s to Bijan, who leads the team in receptions).

This week, the Falcons will have a chance to commit to the run early and often as they take on the Houston Texans and their 28th-ranked rushing defense, according to DVOA. While Houston has improved against the run, ranking 19th in rushing yards allowed, most of that has been due to their opponents in recent weeks. The Steelers and Jags rank in the bottom 1/3rd of the league in rushing totals. And both teams average just 3.6 ypc, which comes in as T7th in the NFL.

The most significant difference between these two teams is at the line of scrimmage, as the Falcons own the 3rd highest run-blocking rating in the NFL. Their Center, Drew Dalman, has the highest run-blocking grade of anyone at his position. And the Texans are rated 32nd in rush defense according to ProFootball Focus. If Arthur Smith can dial up the carries by 20%, Bijan could have the highest fantasy output of any RB.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

DAVID MONTGOMERY $6600 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

I really don’t understand the Lions and how they’re using their running backs. But I also can’t ignore it. In Week 4’s domination of the Packers, David Montgomery received 71% of the snaps and 74% of the touches. Yes, that David Montgomery who has a season average of 3.8 ypc and a long of 16 yards. This is the same David Montgomery who has a career ypc of 3.9 and was released by the worst team in football last season. More importantly, they’re giving him 50% more touches than an RB, Jahmyr Gibbs, whom they drafted with the 12th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. And that same back averages 4.8 yards every time he touches the ball.

But enough with that, the Lions like the physical style of Montgomery, and until they open their eyes, he’s going to be in play in positive game situations. Which is precisely what we have this week when the Lions face the Panthers. Carolina allows the 4th most points to RBs and has given up six rushing touchdowns, the 2nd most in football, trailing only the Broncos. And DVOA+ ranks the Panthers as the worst rushing defense in the NFL. It’s a smash spot for the Lions. And as they have proven to date, it will be one in which David Montgomery leads the way.

ALVIN KAMARA $6300 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

Kamara returned last week and like many of us thought, he was thrust right into the RB1 spot due to the inexperience the Saints suited up in the backfield. And the results followed as he took 75% of the snaps and had 95% of the touches in his first week of action in 2023. The biggest surprise was his usage in the passing game as he brought in 13 catches on 14 targets.

This week he faces a New England team that was thoroughly embarrassed last week in Dallas. It’s been a tough stretch to start the season for the Patriots as they’ve faced three of the top teams in the league in Philadelphia, Miami and Dallas. And while their defensive numbers against the run are decent, as they have allowed the 10th least rushing yards, there has been issues in the passing game as an average of 5.5 receptions per game to opposing RBs.

If that trend follows suit from last week, we could see another high-volume game for Kamara and one where he’s heavily involved in the passing attack. For that reason, combined with the projected snaps, I will be getting a fair amount of exposure on Kamara.

RAHEEM MOSTERT $6200 DraftKings $6900 FanDuel

DE’VON ACHANE $6100 DraftKings $6900 FanDuel

I don’t know who to take in the Miami backfield anymore. Mike McDaniel has found a new toy in De’Von Achane and is not afraid to run him out in any situation, including goal-to-go. The last few weeks have played out in negative game scripts and this one has potential for a trilogy. The Dolphins face-off against the New York Giants who own the 27th rated defense according to DVOA. And the NY Giants have particularly struggled against physical backs as James Conner and Kenneth Walker III have put up big games against Big Blue.

I will look to play both RB’s this week but will not pair them together. Ownership projections will tilt to Achane due to his recent big plays. But I will likely lean towards the hand-me-downs with Mostert. The Dolphins have seen the success of those aforementioned physical backs and will look to wear down NY early then deploy the wildcard in Achane. My preference will be a 70/30 ratio favoring Mostert. And I’ll look to get the Dolphins RB’s in a high percentage of my lineups. Afterall, it’s the Giants and they’ve allowed the 6th most rushing yards in the NFL this season.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

JAMES CONNER $5800 DraftKings $7600 FanDuel

This is one of my favorite spots on the card this week. The Bengals have been dreadful this season on offense. But their rushing defense has also been a big problem. They rank 30th in rushing defense DVOA and are 26th in rush defense rating according to PFF. After allowing Derek Henry to get loose for 122 yards last week, they are now allowing the 2nd most rushing yards on the season with 628.

If we know one thing about the Cardinals, they will play hard and physically. And that starts with James Conner who has 70 touches in four games. He was ranked inside the top four in touches going into Week 4, but the route in SF dropped him back to 9th in the league. The price is a season low on DK for Conner yet it’s the worst rush defense he’s faced. I’m all-in on the Conner wagon this week in the desert.

ISIAH PACHECO DraftKings $5700 FanDuel $6100

The Vikings’ rush defense has been decent as they rank 17th in DVOA against the run. And they’ve allowed the 9th fewest points to RBs on the season. But I can’t help remembering Week 2 when the Eagles ran for 259 yards and three rushing TDs. While the Vikings unit may not be that bad, they aren’t as good as the 9th fewest points to RBs. What’s been in their favor is they faced two of the worst rushing offenses in Tampa and Carolina. And their other opponent, outside the Eagles, passed for 445 yards and ran the ball only 13 times. So there is some illusion to the stats, which intrigues me by the prospects of the Chiefs running game this week.

Once in a while, Chiefs HC Andy Reid decides to go to a running game. And after what he’s seen his former team, the Eagles, do to the Vikings as well as understanding the recent play of his own running game, this may be that week. Isiah Pacheco is 11th in the league in rushing yards with 270 and has a 4.9 ypc. He has three straight games of 13 touches or more. When the dust settles this week, Pacheco has a chance for 20+ points, which would be a huge return on value for a back priced this low.

BREECE HALL DraftKings $5000 FanDuel $6100

The Broncos are an absolute train wreck. But they somehow pulled out a victory last week in Chicago after trailing the Bears by 21 points. On defense, they have allowed the most rushing yards (704), highest yards per carry (5.6), and most rushing TDs (7). They can’t stop a nosebleed, or any running back with two legs.

There is some risk here with the Breece Hall’s volume. However, he has led the team in snaps the past two weeks with an aggregate of 47%. The Jets also have a few notes on their bulletin board from the pre-season when Broncos HC Sean Payton decided to mouth off about Jets OC Nathaniel Hackett. So there will be a little extra motivation for the team in green. And that should all be focused on the run game and taking advantage of a porous defensive line in Denver. For those reasons, I put my trust in Hackett to use his most explosive RB at his highest usage rate. This price and opponent are too good to pass up this week.

RB PROP BETS

WILL BE UPDATED ON FRIDAY

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for Week Four

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 3 ended in good fashion as the Eagles dominated the Bucs on MNF to get us to 2-2 for the weekend. The bad part was our survivor pick as “America’s Team” got dominated by the worst team in the NFL. Dak was Dak and Dan Quinn got outcoached by a PeeWee Herman doppelganger. That sums it up but the good news is that I play in two survivor leagues so we can keep this train moving.

As always, I like to look at some of the trends from the previous week. For week 3, it was all about the favorites which also meant the public did well since they like to ride the chalk. Overall favorites were 9-6-1 on the week and covered several big lines. And remember, being with the public isn’t a bad thing as witnessed by the 49ers vs Giants game last week. We just need to pick our spots wisely to back the general pool of people because as we know, Vegas wins in the end.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 8-4 (last week 2-2)

NFL BETS WEEK 4

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -1 vs LA RAMS

The Rams sputtered on MNF versus the Bengals going 1 for 4 in the redzone and letting a game slip away that they should have won. HC Sean McVay abandoned the run and ended with a 63/37 run-to-pass ratio. Which was a curious move as the Bengals are ranked 28th in rushing defense according to DVOA.

This week, they get to face the Indianapolis Colts who are a surprising 2-1 to start the season. The Colts are coming off an upset victory in OT against the previously undefeated Baltimore Ravens. And now they come home for a cross-conference tilt with their rookie QB cleared to play. And we’ll get to that in a second. But the key in this game will be the Colts defensive front as they are 2nd in the league with 12 sacks. As we know, Matt Stafford isn’t very mobile and was sacked six times against Cincinnati last week.

As for the rookie QB, Anthony Richardson, his status is the biggest reason I’m backing the Colts. Outside of one late mistake against Jacksonville, this team could be 3-0. And we saw his dynamic playmaking ability in Houston in Week 2 when he ran for two TDs in the first quarter. The Rams faced two bad rushing teams but are still ranked 29th in rushing defense DVOA. This is a great matchup for both Richardson and Moss to dominate the ground game and give the Colts a decided edge to get the W.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +6.5 at DALLAS COWBOYS

The Patriots have arguably the hardest schedule to start the year. That has toughened them up for a game like the one they are scheduled to play Sunday in Dallas. On the reverse side, the Cowboys have faced the easiest schedule in the NFL yet they are just 2-1. They have played against the following QBs; Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson and Joshua Dobbs. While Mac Jones is behind Dobbs in QBR, he is the most talented thrower the Boys have faced this season.

However, the real challenge in this game lies in the trenches. Dallas is ranked 20th in rushing defense DVOA and that’s with the two New York teams ditching the run game due to score. Last week, Dallas allowed over 220 rushing yards to the Cardinals as well as an eye-opening 7.2 ypc. That was against a physical runner in James Conner. Which is exactly what they’ll see this week with Rhamondre Stevenson. Bill Belichick was surely watching last week and took notes.

Then there’s Dak Prescott. The Patriots have bottled up both Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa (I won’t even mention last week’s QB in the same sentence as these two). They will have a gameplan in place to confuse and befuddle Mr. Prescott.

I’m not calling outright, but the coaching margin is as wide as the Grand Canyon and I believe the Patriots will be able to keep this game within reaching distance right to the end.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3.5 vs TAMPA BAY BUCS

The New Orleans Saints not only lost a heartbreaker in Green Bay last week but they lost their starting QB, Derek Carr, to a shoulder injury. And after what we saw from Green Bay on Thursday Night Football, against the Detroit Lions, bettors will surely question the Saints.

But instead, I’m looking at this game as a premium opportunity to back the Who Deys. First, the Saints have only allowed three offensive touchdowns this season. In fact, they haven’t allowed more than 18 points in a game this year. Only three teams have allowed less points than this Saints defensive unit. And if you watched MNF last week, then you know Baker is still Baker. Meaning he’s bad. The Eagles outgained the Bucs by 298 yards as Tampa managed just 174 yards of total offense. The running woes of a year ago are back as the Bucs have the worst yards-per-carry at 2.8.

As for the offense, RB Alvin Kamara returns from a three-game suspension this week which will inject energy, and skill, into the backfield. Then there is Jameis Winston, who will start in place of the aforementioned Derek Carr. We know he is a gambler but one who can get hot. And speaking of getting hot, he’s playing against his former team that discarded him for Tom Brady. Jameis doesn’t need much for motivation but there’s a lot already there for him in this one. I will be tuned into the pre-game hype speech and hoping that energy gets us a winning ticket.

BALTIMORE RAVENS +1.5 at CLEVELAND BROWNS

I promise you all, I tried to avoid the Browns game this week. But after all my research, I just couldn’t turn away. Just like a crazy girlfriend, no matter the circumstance, they have me wanting more. Now, the good news is, I’m 3-0 in Cleveland games this year. So take that for what it’s worth when reading this section.

My concern with the Browns this week revolves around their offense. Even if they were healthy, I’d have doubts about Watson and company and their ability to move the ball on the 5th ranked defense according to DVOA. But health is the key word here, as several notable players including QB Deshaun Watson and TE David Njoku are questionable. Cleveland’s pass offense, so far, is ranked 23rd and they have been sacked 12 times which is 4th most in the NFL.

In the end, this pick is about the Ravens resilience as they lost a tough game last week against Indianapolis. John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson rebound well from losses. In the last two seasons, Jackson is 6-0 SU following a loss (*counting games he started and finished). That’s enough for me to back Baltimore this week and see them win a pivotal division game.

SURVIVOR PICK

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Jalen Hurts is 20-1 in his last 21 regular season NFL starts. The one loss was to the Washington Commanders last year in Philadelphia. That’s enough motivation for someone that doesn’t need much to get him dialed in for games.

And Washington looked terrible last week as they turned the ball over five times against the Bills. The Eagles defensive line will create similar problems for QB Sam Howell and help the Birds get another W.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS RB Report Card for Week 4

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We didn’t give you the highest scoring RB on the slate in Week 3. And that’s primarily because it was a 2nd string RB with only one career carry that ended up leading the board in fantasy points. And “oh by the way”, he was 0.27% owned in the millionaire maker GPP’s. So if you rostered De’Von Achane then I tip my cap and hope you won money. For our other plays, we hit on five of the top ten RB’s with the best play being Kenneth Walker III.

This week looks to be an uphill climb for RB’s as there are several tough spots for some of the higher priced backs. But we have a few angles and plays we’re looking at that can hopefully help you bust the slate and turn your screen GREEN!

Each week I highlight my favorite ten RB’s and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). So, let’s get started with the top ten running backs of Week 3 in the NFL.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY $9200 DraftKings $9400 FanDuel

McCaffrey has been an every down back for the 49ers this season. So far this year, Christian McCaffrey has 81% of the snaps. He also has a total of 71 touches which is 2nd most in the NFL. Outside of Austin Ekeler, who has only played one game this season, the 49ers RB has averaged the most points for RB’s in the league at 25.6.

While those numbers have been great, the better news this week is he faces an Arizona team that allows the 6th most points to RB’s in 2023. So far this season, they’ve allowed an average of 23 touches per game to RB1’s. And here’s what it has looked like so far:

Week 1: Brian Robinson – 13.6 DK points, 1 TD, 20 touches
Week 2: Saquon Barkley – 27.2 DK points, 2 TDs, 23 touches
Week 3: Tony Pollard – 18.10 DK points, 0 TDs, 26 touches

I don’t love paying a steep price like this for RB’s. But this is a good game environment as Arizona has proven they can stay in games and even beat some of the “elite” teams in the NFL. The volume will be there and the opportunity to create positive plays will also be in McCaffrey’s favor. You can build your lineup around CMAC with value plays at WR. So, he’s in my player pool and has a realistic chance at 30+ fantasy points this week.

JOSH JACOBS $7100 DraftKings $9000 FanDuel

The Raiders are once again a floundering team that has no sail or direction. Last year’s top RB, Josh Jacobs, has been underutilized seeing an average of 18 touches per game (he averaged 23.1 touches per game in 2022). It’s just another example of Josh McDaniel failing at the head coaching position.

But he has a chance to get it right this week as the Raiders get to face the 29th ranked defense according to DVOA in the LA Chargers. And LA has allowed the 5th most points in the league as they’ve played three games over the total in 2023. And looking back at 2022, Jacobs totaled 201 rushing yards against the Chargers. But more importantly, he averaged 5.6 ypc.

With Garoppolo likely out with an injury, the Raiders gameplan should feature Jacobs. So that bodes well for the NFL’s leading rusher of a year ago to finally get the consistent reps and push towards his first big game of the year. This is a very high ceiling, and one that could mirror that of McCaffrey but for $2100 less.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

RAHEEM MOSTERT $6500 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

Scoring 70 points in an NFL is unheard of. Having your RBs score eight of your teams ten touchdowns is literally unbelievable. But those two occurrences did happen last week when the Dolphins beat the Broncos by a score of 70-20. In that game Raheem Mostert and DeVon Achane ended up as the top two RBs of the weekend accounting for a combined 95 fantasy points.

With Jeff Wilson out, the backfield is primarily Mostert’s. While his snap total last week was only 51% that was more based on game script. In Week’s 1 and 2, Mostert had a 73% snap count and 66% touch rate. This week he faces the Bills which has one of the highest totals on the board. The Bills will be focused on limiting Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins explosive passing game which should open up room for Mostert. Also take into account that the Dolphins lead RB has 10 receptions in the first three games.

JAMES COOK $6300 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

James Cook has been everything the Bills hoped for and more as he’s rushed for an average of 6.1 ypc so far this season. And he’s been very active in the passing game totaling ten catches in the first three weeks of action. The only blemish on Cook’s resume so far is his lack of touchdowns. Latavius Murray, Damien Harris and Josh Allen have reaped the benefits of goal line carries leaving Cook with 0 TDs. But that’s not sustainable for a back with this talent and once he hits the endzone he will surely break the slate.

His opponent this week, the Miami Dolphins are ranked 26th in rushing defense DVOA. The Phins have allowed 390 yards rushing, 7th most in the NFL, as well as four rushing TD’s, 5th most in the league. They’ve also allowed the 9th highest fantasy points to RB’s as we saw Austin Ekeler put up 29 DK points against this defense.

RHAMONDRE STEVENSON $6200 DraftKings $6900 FanDuel

How about them ‘Boys! The Arizona Cardinals not only won the game against Dallas last week, but they dominated the line of scrimmage. The Cards ran for 222 yards on 40 carries registering a 7.4 ypc. Based on that performance, the Cowboys now sit at 30th in the league in yards per carry at 5.3. They’ve also slipped to 20th in rushing defense DVOA. And this wasn’t against a highly ranked offensive line in Arizona.

So I urge you not to just look at the matchup as a dangerous one as Arizona already taught us how to attack Dallas. As for Stevenson, he has a 70% usage rate and NE is targeting RB’s in the passing game at a 17.1% clip. He is also the primary goal line back so that’s a bonus when considering the NE running back.

ZACK MOSS $6000 DraftKings $6400 FanDuel

It’s hard to ignore any back that gets 32 touches in a week. Especially one that is priced at $6000 and has a good matchup ahead. Zack Moss looks to be it in the Indy backfield as he’s had a 90% snap share the last two weeks. The only back that has touched the ball besides Moss is Trey Sermon who was just signed onto the team two weeks ago.

This week he faces the Rams and will likely have Anthony Richardson back under center. That will bode well for the run game as Richardson’s threat of running will open up holes for Moss. Additionally, Indy’s O-Line ranks fourth in the NFL with a 90.8 run block grade. As for the Rams, they are ranked 29th in rushing defense DVOA and have already allowed a big game to Christian McCaffrey. This is a juicy matchup and one I will be heavily invested in.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

ALEXANDER MATTISON $5800 DraftKings $7600 FanDuel

I had Mattison in my core plays last week and he paid off with his best game of the season racking up 17.5 DK points. The fear of Cam Akers is not real, yet, as Mattison had 80% of the snaps and 83.3% of the touches.

This week is another good matchup for the Vikings RB as the Panthers have allowed the 5th most rushing yards in the NFL. And according to DVOA, they have the 32nd ranked rush defense. So it’s still safe to use Mattison until he fumbles away his lead role. And barring turnovers or injury, he should pop this week for a big game in Carolina.

JAVONTE WILLIAMS DraftKings $5500 FanDuel $6100

Javonte Williams didn’t get the opportunities last week due to a classic bad game script. The Dolphins boat-raced the Broncos which left Denver to abandon the run game early. That should be different this week as their opponent is one of the four winless teams in the NFL and the game script should be much better for the Broncos RB.

The Bears have a very bad defense ranking 30th in defensive DVOA. They are also a mess offensively but should be able to put up points against a Denver D that last in total defense DVOA. This is a perfect script for a high-scoring game and one I recommend being heavily invested in this week. And that starts with a very affordable RB option that has a high ceiling in Javonte Williams.

JAYLEN WARREN DraftKings $5000 FanDuel $6100

Running Backs are in play anytime they face the Houston Texans. For one, the Texans are allowing the 7th most fantasy points to RB’s this season. And for two, they own the 31st ranked rushing defense according to DVOA.

Warren is my wild-card play of the week as he won’t standout on any charts and will likely have an ownership value of 2% or less. But at this point, it’s the eye test that does it for me as Warren looks much more dynamic than his counterpart, Najee Harris. And in Week 3, we saw Warren get 45% of the snaps which resulted in 8.2 fantasy points. The other key ingredient to this is that Warren has 12 receptions on the season so he is targeted heavily and thrives from Pickett’s inability to throw downfield.

RB PROP BETS

WILL BE UPDATED ON FRIDAY

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFL DFS RB Report Card for Week 3

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Throw in the towel! Not because of our RB recommendations here at the Running Back Report Card. After all, we hit on six of the top ten scoring RBs last week! But because of the numerous injuries that ball carriers incurred in Week 2. And also, for the curious playcalling by several OCs, including one up in New York.

Using data to pick the best spots for RBs in a given week is challenging enough. But then you add injuries and unpredictable game scripts, and it all becomes much tougher. Ultimately, it was heartbreaking to see Nick Chubb go down with a severe leg injury and for Saquon Barkley to hurt his ankle when the Giants were running out the clock for a game-winning field goal. So erase those bad thoughts. Throw in the towel for Week 2, and let’s start a new contest with the below building blocks for your DFS lineups.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

TONY POLLARD $8000 DraftKings $9400 FanDuel

Tier 1 is lonely this week, as three of the five backs are out or questionable. So, that leaves us with only a few RBs to pay for. And Tony Pollard should be one of those on your radar.

Pollard is the top ball carrier in one of the best offenses in the NFL. And they face the worst team in the NFL, the Arizona Cardinals, this week. Already this season, Arizona has allowed 44.9 DK points to RBs, including:

Week 1: Brian Robinson – 13.6 DK points, 1 TD, 20 touches
Week 2: Saquon Barkley – 27.2 DK points, 2 TDs, 23 touches

This follows a similar trend to last season when the Cardinals finished 22nd in run defense DVOA and allowed the 5th most rushing TDs (21). They are 14th in rushing defense DVOA, but the eye test shows they are much worse as they’ve faced two fragile offensive lines in the Commanders and Giants.

I would not worry about blowout potential in this game. Whether the Cowboys score 30 points in three quarters or four, the points will be had against this porous defense in the desert. Pollard has 64% of the snaps this season and is coming off a game where he saw 32 touches. He’s tied for the league lead in touches (48) with Christian McCaffrey. The Cowboys RB is a very safe play this week and one that could break the slate.

BIJAN ROBINSON $7800 DraftKings $9000 FanDuel

It only took one week for Bijan Robinson owners to come back in off the proverbial ledge they put themselves on after Week 1. Even though the 2023 NFL First Round pick put up 20.3 DK points in Week 1, Tyler Algeir had more touches and points. However, that changed in Week 2 as Bijan had 28% more snaps and seven more touches than his counterpart.

Overall, Bijan is showing his playmaking ability. The Falcons RB is averaging 6.2 ypc while also reeling in five catches per game. He’s already showing and proving, why Atlanta used a top-10 pick on the former Texas Longhorn RB. And he’s 7th in the league in touches with 39.

This week, he gets to face the Detroit Lions, who play at a fast pace. While Detroit is in the middle of the pack in rushing defense DVOA (13th), they played two teams in the bottom half of the league in rushing offense DVOA and rushing yards. But the Falcons are a different story as they rank 4th in rushing yards and have a prominent offensive line.

This will be a battle of the first two RBs drafted this year and I expect both to shine. For the Falcons to keep pace with an explosive Lions offense, they’ll need to get Bijan 20+ touches once again and provide a good return on a $7800 investment.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

TRAVIS ETIENNE $6900 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

Etienne did not have a strong game in Week 2 as KC held the Jaguars to just nine points in Week 2. But it wasn’t from lack of availability, as he saw 72% of the snaps. He’s now sitting at a 76% snap rate for the season, which is 6th in the NFL to date.

While we’re confident in Etienne’s role as the primary running back in Jacksonville’s offense, this is more about the Houston defense. After finishing dead last in the NFL in rushing defense in 2022, the Texans are starting 2023 with a repeat in mind. According to DVOA, Houston is ranked 32nd in rushing defense. The biggest eye-opener is the Texans have already allowed six rushing touchdowns this season. The Colts steamrolled through Houston’s frontline and saw their RB Zach Moss post 20.7 DK points.

Doug Pederson is always a wild card and often needs to be reminded to run the ball. But he shouldn’t need any reminders this week, seeing the Texans’ struggles on defense this season.

JAHMYR GIBBS $6600 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

Strap on your seatbelts because we’re ready for takeoff. If Lions RB David Montgomery can’t suit up this week, Jahmy Gibbs will be featured in a high-octane offense. And that should make us all very excited.

The talent is there, but the biggest question is opportunity. Even after Montgomery went down last week, Craig Reynolds received more carries (3) on the final two drives than Gibbs (0). Gibbs caught seven passes last week, including three in the fourth quarter.

The other tricky part will be Atlanta’s defense, as they rank 11th in rushing defense DVOA. However, they have allowed 4.5 ypc, 9th most in the league. And they allowed six catches to RBs in Week 1. So, if deployed correctly, Gibbs could have good chances in this game.

Overall, Gibbs is strictly a GPP play for me, and I’ll only consider him on DK as his lack of TDs and rushing yards/attempts make him hard to play on FD.

JAMES COOK $6400 DraftKings $6900 FanDuel

James Cook cashed our bet last week as he went over his rushing yards prop. But more importantly, he scored 22.6 DK points, which earned him top 5 value for RBs last week. Cook has been the lead back in Buffalo to date and has taken 60% of the snaps. The only concern is that he still needs to find the endzone, as Buffalo has used Damien Harris and Latavius Murray at the goal line. We all knew that was a possibility, but at least Cook is also active in the passing game, thus making up for lost points there.

His opponent this week, the Washington Commanders, rank in the top 10 in total defense DVOA. But they are 17th in rush defense DVOA, 17th in rushing yards allowed, and t24th in yards per carry. So, while the matchup looks tricky, there are yards to be had against this tough Commanders front. Keep an eye on Cook’s health but if he’s a go, I expect a full workload and one of the safer plays in Cash.

KENNETH WALKER III $6200 DraftKings $6400 FanDuel

While he only managed 2.5 ypc, Kenneth Walker lived up to his ownership last week by scoring 18.4 DK points against the Lions. Unlike James Cook above, Walker does see the goal line carries and was able to punch two in the endzone last week. That adds to his value, especially against the Panthers this week.

For all the talk of Zach Charbonnet taking carries away from Walker to ease back in from a preseason injury, Seattle’s starting RB has received 62% of the snaps and 72% of the touches.

This week he gets a juicy matchup against Carolina who allows the 3rd most points to RB’s. They’re also ranked 31st in rush defense DVOA. I expect Pete Carroll to take advantage of this matchup and lean heavily on his running game this week making Walker a very good play in DFS.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

ALEXANDER MATTISON $5800 DraftKings $7600 FanDuel

The Vikings traded for RB Cam Akers this week in what some see as a move signaling concern with Mattison. The team came out today and inferred the trade was for depth, and they still have confidence in Mattison. And as I type this today, I believe that statement. If Mattison continues at a sub-4.0 ypc and has additional critical fumbles, their stance will swiftly change with a capable RB in town.

However, down the road doesn’t matter, and only this Sunday does; for that reason, I’m confident in Mattison’s potential against the LA Chargers. First, the Vikings have played the top two rushing defenses in the league in terms of yards allowed. That could partly be a reflection of Minnesota, but the Eagles and Bucs shut down quality running teams outside of the Vikings.

The other factor is the Chargers D is ranked 32nd in DVOA. Additionally, the Vikings have thrown the ball frequently and have 0 wins to show. I expect HC Kevin O’Connell to try to establish a run game and wear down the Chargers team, who is traveling for a 2nd consecutive week.

JAVONTE WILLIAMS DraftKings $5500 FanDuel $6100

It has yet to be pretty in Denver so far this season. Karma may be settling in on Sean Payton after his critical comments of each Broncos HC, Nathaniel Hackett. But whatever you want to call it, the Broncos starting 0-2 against non-playoff teams is highly disappointing. One of the few bright spots is the play of Javonte Williams. While he’s played under 50% of the snaps, he has 64% of the touches for Broncos RBs. And that should expand going forward as he provides the highest upside in the backfield.

The Broncos travel to Miami this week and must be ready for a track meet. The Dolphins have allowed 321 yards and a 4.9 ypc which is 5th most in the league in 2023. They are ranked 29th in rushing defense by DVOA. More importantly, the Dolphins have allowed 3.5 catches per game to RBs. We can confidently pencil in Williams for 15+ touches against a defense allowing big plays, which looks like a recipe for low floor and high ceiling this week in Florida.

KENDRE MILLER DraftKings $4300 FanDuel $4700

Miller has been cleared to play and has been a full participant in practice this week leading up to the Saints game in Green Bay. Miller was a 3rd round pick in this year’s NFL Draft, coming out of National Champion runner-up TCU. So there is obvious talent here, and the Saints have a prime opportunity to display that.

For one, Jamaal Williams is likely out with a hamstring injury. And two, he’s facing the Green Bay Packers, who just allowed 211 yards rushing to the Atlanta Falcons. It’s rare we have an RB priced this low with a potential for 20+ DK points. It’s a risk, but one I’m willing to take, especially against a GB team that has struggled against the run for 2+ seasons.

RB PROP BETS

WILL BE UPDATED ON FRIDAY

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for Week Three

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We hit another trio of winners last week, posting a 3-1 record ATS for the second consecutive weekend. And we hit our outright winner in Survivor/Eliminator to keep moving forward. I don’t know about you, but my pools have already seen ~50% of entries eliminated. Though just two weeks, getting this far has been good navigating for us.

As a quick recap for Week 2, we continued to see dogs cover spreads as the favorites went just 7-9 ATS and are now 13-19 on the season. More importantly, the public went 9-7; however Vegas hit on their most important sides, getting covers in Arizona and the LA Rams. In case you missed it, the books are big fans of Rams HC Sean McVay.

Things have shifted slightly this week as we have only four home underdogs, where we had fourteen over the first two weeks. And home dogs are 7-7 ATS in those matchups to date.

So, let’s get moving and find some winners.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 3-1 (last week 3-1)

NFL BETS WEEK 3

CAROLINA PANTHERS +5.5 at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Many bettors will run to the window on Sunday to place action on Seattle. The Seahawks went into Detroit in Week 2 and won a game in OT to improve to 1-1. The public betting loved seeing that happen as they scored 37 points in that game. Their opponent, the Carolina Panthers were on MNF and looked utterly flat in their loss to New Orleans. So it’s a case of recency bias that will indeed have the books flooded with seabird bets.

Can the Panthers bite harder with Andy Dalton now at QB?

However, QB Bryce Young has been ruled out for this contest, and in comes Andy Dalton. That should play in the favor of the Panthers, as their biggest issue so far has been the QB play. The Panthers rank dead last in passing yards with just 299 over the first two games. And they are 28th in completion percentage at 59.2%. Dalton played well last season, having a 92.5 QBR with a 2-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio.

The Seahawks have a solid passing attack, but that plays into a Panthers team with the 5th best-passing defense, according to DVOA. On the other side of the ball, the Panthers, with their new QB, should be able to move the ball against Seattle as they own the 22nd-ranked defense, according to DVOA. A weak defense, combined with Carolina’s ability to play solid pass D, should allow the Panthers to hang close enough to cover this number, and even pull out a win.

CLEVELAND BROWNS -3.5 vs TENNESSEE TITANS

The Browns have found a place in this article for the 3rd consecutive week. And that could be good or bad news, depending on what team you cheer for. To date, I’m 2-0 in Browns games, and feel like there’s an edge in this week’s contest too. The Browns saw DeShaun Watson fumble away the game last Monday Night in Pittsburgh. But the public also saw Nick Chubb go down to a scary injury, and now they have completely turned their backs on the city by the lake.

However, this wasn’t going to be a Nick Chubb game anyway. The Titans are the #2 ranked rushing defense, according to DVOA. And they led the league in rushing defense last year. This was always going to be about DeShaun Watson and the Browns WRs. And with Watson struggling on MNF in Week 2, he will have added motivation to show he is worth the money that Cleveland invested in him.

Additionally, Cleveland has the #2 ranked defense, according to DVOA. The Titans have significant issues on the offensive line, as PFF ranks that unit as 28th in the league heading into Week 3. While only having four sacks this season, the Browns have the 3rd ranked pass-rushing unit as rated by PFF. The advantage in the trenches and the passing game is significant. The Titans, while 2-0 ATS, could easily be 0-2. Another Chargers late-game collapse masked their struggles, and they will be unable to hide this week against Myles Garrett and company.

DENVER BRONCOS +6.5 vs MIAMI DOLPHINS

I’m definitely on an island here, and I’m OK with it. The Broncos are 0-2 and 0-2 ATS, while the Dolphins are the exact reverse. To add to the opposite effects of these two teams, Denver has played two home games, and Miami has played two road games. It’s an exciting matchup seeing two teams with opposite results and paths taking the field today in Miami.

Broncos are looking for their first win this weekend in Miami. But they’ll need their defense to rise up to pull off the upset.

But here’s the thing: the public is hammering the Dolphins and it is for good reason. Miami passes the eye test, and casual bettors love good offenses. So far, we’ve seen almost 80% of bets and 75% of the money pouring in on Miami. And yet, the oddsmakers haven’t pushed this to the key number of 7. Something seems very odd about this one, and when it smells, trust Vegas.

As for the game, the offense in Denver hasn’t been the issue like in 2022. But now the defense can’t stop anyone. They made a splash in FA with DE Frank Clark and DL Zach Allen. But the Broncos have just four sacks this season, which ties them for 23rd in the NFL. This week, that will have to change if they want to get in the win column.

On offense, Denver has an advantage against the Dolphins D as their pass and run block rates are in the league’s top half. In the end, Denver is desperate and will play inspired football. They will play their best game of the season this week in Florida. Also, Miami was 1-2 ATS in 2022 at home following a road trip of 2+ games or more. And in two of those game, they lost outright (Minnesota and Green Bay).

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -4 at TAMPA BAY BUCS (MNF)

The Eagles have been on National TV in the first two weeks of the season. And public bettors do not believe what they see despite their 2-0 and 1-0-1 record ATS, which is precisely where the Eagles want to be. They have yet to play a complete game and have 10 days of rest to figure it out.

As for the Bucs, they are one of the more surprising teams in the NFL to date. They’ve won a challenging game in Minnesota, then took care of the hapless Bears at home. Both defenses rank in the bottom 1/3rd of the league. But this week, they take a step up in competition and face an Eagles team that led the league in sacks last season with 70. And while Tampa has allowed just one sack this season, they’ve faced two teams that don’t have the defensive line strength like the Eagles possess.

There are mismatches at both lines of scrimmage, and the Eagles have the better-skilled position players. They’re comfortable in the spotlight and have the added rest days, all hidden advantages that will factor into this game.

SURVIVOR PICK

DALLAS COWBOYS

The Cowboys look like the best team in the NFL after the first two weeks of the season. And their reward in Week 3 is to play the worst team in the NFL, the Arizona Cardinals. There’s only a little to assess here as Dallas should keep it rolling this week in the desert. What I saw from Arizona last week was a team that is content to play tight but even more happy to lose and stay in the lead for the Caleb Williams sweepstakes. Dallas will help them keep that lead this week.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting Premium

NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for Week Two

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 1 has come and gone and we walked away a survivor as the Commanders had to comeback late in the game to beat the Arizona Cardinals. But it’s a W and we advance to Week 2 in our Survivor/Eliminator Pools. Plus we used a team in Washington that won’t be favored in many games going forward.

As for our bets, the Texans kept us from a sweep, but we’ll take 3-1 any week as the Browns, Packers and Bucs all covered as dogs and won outright. The most interesting note from the first week was that road teams went 12-4 ATS showing that homefield was not an advantage.

Week 2 will be tougher as ten of the fifteen games feature a spread of 3.5 or less. It also features seven home underdogs. There is some volatility in the market as well as we’re seeing high volume of bets coming in on certain teams.

So, let’s get moving and find some winners.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 3-1 (last week 3-1)

NFL BETS WEEK 2

TENNESSEE TITANS +2.5 vs LA CHARGERS

The Titans lost a nailbiter to the New Orleans Saints in Week 1. While the result wasn’t surprising, the way the Titans did it was. Titans OC Tim Kelly had a run pass ratio of 37% to 63%. And that strategy didn’t pay off as the Titans were sacked four times and QB Ryan Tannehill completed less than 50% of his passes including three interceptions. Running back Derrick Henry touched the ball just five times after half.

That should all change this week as the Titans will need to feed the beast against the Chargers. That’s because LA’s defensive line is weak as they graded out as the 7^th worst rush defense in Week 1.

Austin Ekeler has been ruled out in Week 2 which greatly impacts the Chargers chances of victory in Tennessee (Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

And the Chargers did Chargers things in Week 1 as they lost another close game which is becoming a regularly scheduled program under HC Brandon Staley. Their star RB, Austin Ekeler, has been ruled out as well which takes away a key part to their offense.

These two teams played last season and the Chargers won 17-14 on a last second FG. That game was played in LA as the teams flip the home field this season. I’ll take the Titans in this matchup based on their advantage at the line of scrimmage and hopeful dedication to the run game.

ARIZONA CARDINALS +4.5 vs NEW YORK GIANTS

Arizona is considered by many to be the worst team in the NFL. But the Giants looked like the worst team in football in Week 1 as they lost to their Division rivals, the Dallas Cowboys, by a score of 40-0. And now they have to get on a plane and travel west for their Week 2 matchup against the Cardinals.

The one matchup I like in this game is Arizona’s pass rush versus the Giants offensive line. New York graded out as the 2^nd worst pass blocking unit in Week 1. Yes, it was against a ferocious Dallas front seven, but the O-line was a concern in NY before the season started. And they did nothing to ease that concern against the Cowboys.

Also the Cardinals new HC Jonathan Gannon is familiar with the Giants as he faced them three times last season as DC for the Eagles. He had success keeping Jones in the pocket and creating pressure. He’ll likely try to do something similar this week.

The public is all in on the Giants this week as 82% of the bets have come in on New York. Last week, there were eight teams that received over 70% of bets and those teams went 3-5 ATS.

Last piece of information that is important is the Cardinals have won the last four meetings in this series. It’s not one played often, but when they have played Arizona has fared well. I’ll take the Cardinals this week and fade the public as I see them being able to stay in this game similar to their contest against Washington last week.

DETROIT LIONS -4 vs SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Betting the Lions as a favorite is a scary proposition as they aren’t often in this position. Last season they were a favorite in five games and went 3-2 straight up and ATS. One of those games was against these same Seattle Seahawks and the Lions ended up losing that game 48-45. And you also have the Dan Campbell factor as he will do something extraordinary which will energize or implode the Lions chances. Last week his fake punt call ignited a Lions drive that resulted in a touchdown.

The reason I do like Detroit this week is because they didn’t play their best offensive game in Week 1 but still found a way to upset the Super Bowl Champs. They should be able to move the ball effectively against a Seattle D that allowed almost 500 yards of total offense to the Rams. In fact, Seattle rated out as the 30^th ranked D in DVOA.

There’s also the rest factor in play as Detroit has been off since last Thursday. Case in point, the Bills upset the Super Bowl Champions, LA Rams, in Week 1 of 2022 and followed that up with a 41-7 route of the Titans in Week 2.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS +2.5 vs CLEVELAND BROWNS (MNF)

This line has moved 3.5 points since it opened as Pittsburgh favored by one point. It is a classic overreaction to how poorly the Steelers played in Week 1 and how well the Browns played. While it’s possible the Browns are going to be good this season, they caught the Bengals at the right time as Joe Burrow was rusty coming off a calf injury.

As for the Steelers, they could never get going against a great 49ers defense. QB Kenny Pickett was pressing the action and ended up throwing two interceptions. I still have my concerns about Pickett, but he’s better than what he showed in Week 1.

And simply put, the Steelers are a great rebound team under Mike Tomlin. Pittsburgh is 34-12 at home coming off a loss. Additionally, the Browns have lost 19 straight regular season games in Pittsburgh (they won a playoff game at Acrisure Stadium in 2020 but the noted streak is regular season futility). This is a house of horrors for the Browns, and I just don’t think one win, as impressive as it was, makes them a deserved favorite. I’ll take the Steelers and expect TJ Watt to have a huge game on MNF.

SURVIVOR PICK

BUFFALO BILLS

Josh Allen is his own worst enemy as he showed against the Jets on Monday. The Bills QB had four costly turnovers which factored into Buffalo not being able to put the game away. He is reckless but also one of the best QB’s in the league. Which sums up the pain of being a Bills fan.

Josh Allen looks to forget Week 1 and leave his turnovers in NJ. Bills are heavy favorites vs Las Vegas this week in Buffalo. Image courtesy of espn.com

But they have an opportunity to take their frustrations out on the Raiders this week. The Bills struggle in close games. But so do the Raiders as they are 5-9 in one score games in the past two seasons. And Las Vegas has to travel for the second consecutive week which is a challenging task.

I’m nervous about the Bills this year but think this is a great spot to use them in Survivor. So let’s rise Bills Mafia and take out your frustrations on a Raiders team that will be happy to start the season 1-1.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

2 years ago 0 comments

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