NFL Week 8 is here and the DraftKings statistics are just beginning to be adjusted. We have Jason, Tony, and Dave to break down the 2023 NFL Week 8 Main Slate to give out their picks and plays to help you make a profit!
This week, we have special guest Bob Harris from Football Diehards and SiriusXM Radio on the program to give us his WINNING Wisdom and plays.
NFL Week 7 left us with more injuries and more questions. Could this be the week to stash Kyler Murray? Julia Papworth is here to break down ownership percentages and strategies for adding players to your team!
Make sure to keep it locked in every Tuesday for her gems and follow her on socials (@juliapapworth) for all her great content.
We had a huge NFL Week 6 here at the Running Back Report Card. We nailed the top three scoring RBs last week in Raheem Mostert, Kyren Williams, and Travis Etienne. And each of those players was $7100 or less. Taking it a step further, we ended up hitting on 6 of the top 9 scoring RBs and avoided some of the bigger salary flops such as McCaffrey and Bijan. So we’ll give out our first A+ grade of the year and look to carry that into Week 7 here at WinDaily. As for Week 7, this looks to be a week in which I’ll pay up for an RB1. We’ve been living in Tier 2 and 3 the past few weeks, and while there’s still good value there, I do like the potential of Tier 1 this week.
Please check out Stix’s weekly projections when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also, remember to check out the NFL Pre-Lock Show on Sunday at 11 am on YouTube.
I highlight my favorite ten RBs each week and break them into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). So, let’s get started with the top ten running backs of Week 3 in the NFL.
We saw Barkley return to action last week and the Giants didn’t waste any time ensuring he got the ball. The former Penn State RB saw 28 touches against the Bills and turned that into 100 total yards. While he didn’t get in the endzone, the volume is what makes attracts us to Barkley this week. Simply put, the Giants are in must-win mode. They are 1-5 and have the worst point differential in the NFL at -96. Today they get a division rival, in the Commanders. If they lose this one, the season is all but over before Halloween even hits the calendar.
And seeing the Commanders is a good thing for Barkley as he averages 5.8 ypc against Washington in his career. Add to that he also puts up 130 yards per game from scrimmage against the team from our Nation’s Capital and we have a high volume situation with great past performance.
Josh Jacobs is 4th in the league in snap percentage (78.3%) and 3rd in the league in touches (132). But the issue has been what he’s done with the touches as Jacobs is averaging just 2.91 ypc. And he’s too good of an RB for that to continue. Which leads us to today’s matchup where he gets to face the Bears who are 17th in rushing defense DVOA. The other good news is the Bears are allowing the 4th most fantasy points to RBs. Then look at the potential game script today as QB Aidan O’Connell will get his first career NFL start. It would make a lot of sense to feed Jacobs early and often to simplify and protect their rookie QB.
Bijan Robinson has scored double digit fantasy points in every game this season. And since Week 1, he’s averaged 75% of the snaps for the Falcons. The issue lately, is the Falcons have trailed early and turned to their passing game thus decreasing Bijan’s carries. However, that should change this week as the Falcons visit the Bucs. That’s because this game has one of the lowest totals on the board at 37.5. Keeping a slower game script should allow Atlanta to commit to the run. And while Tampa is 10th in rushing defense DVOA, they have allowed several big running games including 201 yards to the Eagles.
Last point to consider is that Bijan averages 4+ catches per week. The Bucs allow 6 catches per game to RBs, including a game where they allowed 11 to Alvin Kamara.
The Arizona Cardinals are quickly turning into the 2022 Houston Texans for us RB focused DFS players. That’s because Arizona is bleeding points to RB’s, allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to backs on the season. The Cardinals are ranked 29th in rushing defense DVOA and have allowed 8 rushing TD’s, which is 4th most in the league. This is an underpricing on DraftKings and a much better play in DFS games there.
Even though he carries a questionable tag, news out of Green Bay is that Aaron Jones will suit up today. And if he does, he’s in the biggest smash spot on the slate. That’s because he gets to face the Broncos who have the worst rushing defense in the league allowing 172 yards per game on the ground. They are ranked last in rushing defense DVOA and have the highest yards per carry in the league at 5.6. This is a great spot for the Packers RB to put up a big game in the Mile High City.
Outside of a dud game against the Jags, Cook has been a steady performer for the Bills. And today, he gets to face a team he’s had success against in the New England Patriots. Last season, he played 2 games against the Pats and racked up 156 yards from scrimmage including 8 catches. And we all know the struggles the Patriots have had this season, sitting at 1-5 and on the verge of making a complete roster turnover. But buried in all their bad play, is also a run defense that can be exposed as they’ve allowed the 12th most fantasy points to opposing RBs.
JAHMYR GIBBS $6300 DraftKings $6200 FanDuel
WinDaily projection model has Gibbs as the 3rd highest value on the board today. And who am I to argue with a model that consistently pushes out winners. With David Montgomery out of action, the backfield is Craig Reynolds and Jahmyr Gibbs. They will likely get a even share of snaps, but Gibbs will see more touches as he’s the bigger threat in the passing game. And that’s exactly where we’ll get the value in the Lions RB since the Ravens have one of the better run defenses in the league. The other added benefit with Montgomery being out is the Gibbs will likely assume goal line duties making his TD equity much higher than week’s past.
The Pacheco train keeps rolling as he has another quality matchup today against the Chargers. The Chiefs RB has received at least 15 carries in each of the last 4 games. He’s also a threat in the passing game with an average of 3 catches per game out of the backfield. And that will be important as the Chargers allow the most passing yards per game in the NFL. This is a smash spot for the Rutgers RB.
The Giants run defense is ranked 30th in DVOA. They’ve also allowed the 2nd most rushing yards on the season. This isn’t something that can be fixed with scheme as the Giants have issues on the DL and with their LBs. Meaning this will continue to be an issue all season long, like it was for them in 2022 as well. As for Robinson, he’s scored a TD in all three of his road games so far and is averaging 18.8 DK points away from home.
The Browns activated Deon Jackson from the practice squad thus alerting fantasy owners that they are concerned with Kareem Hunt’s thigh injury. Even if Hunt is given the green light to play, Ford will be the starting RB and receive the majority of the snaps and touches. That’s great news for Ford as he’s facing an Indy defense that allows 25 points per game and is giving up the 11th most fantasy points to RBs.
Gibbs has yet to score a TD in the NFL. But with the goal line vulture unable to play today, look for Detroit to turn to Gibbs to get meaningful carries in the redzone and finally punch one in.
Obviously the risk here is the status and health of Jones’ hamstring. Coming into Week 7, the Packers have the 11th best offensive line according to Pro Football Focus. So all we need is health and this O-Line should easily pave the way for Jones to blow past this mark against the worst run defense in the NFL.
Now that you finished reading the NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
Gloeck (@dgloeck) and Schreck (@draftmasterflex) are live on a Saturday Morning to breakdown the Week 8 #CFB #DFS lineups. It’s a big day in College Football as Penn State and Ohio State battle in a matchup of top 10 teams. And Tennessee visits Alabama for a big matchup in the SEC West. We look at those games and all others on this busy 12 game slate for October 21st, 2023.
We ended up with a split last week but missed another winning week by 0.5 points as the Seahawks gave a game away against Cincy. The Sea Birds had four possessions inside the 20 in the 4th quarter and mustered only three points. But those are the breaks and we’ll look to bounce back in Week 7. There are six teams on bye this week, and with a Thursday game already played, that means we have just 12 games left to choose from.
We saw the books bounce back last week as the public went just 6-9 ATS. Some of the big results for Vegas were the NY Jets (+6), Cleveland (+10) and NY Giants (+14.5). It was the first week we’ve seen multiple double digit dogs cover.
The Browns pulled off the upset of the NFL Season last week as they took down the 49ers to hand San Fran its first loss of the season. Backup QB PJ Walker managed the game well and RB Kareem Hunt produced big plays in the running game. But it was a dominant defensive effort as the Browns held the 49ers to just 215 total yards. The Colts, on the other hand, slept walked through 3 quarters as they fell to their division rivals, the Jacksonville Jaguars, by a count of 37-20.
So we have two teams heading in opposite directions. But yet, I like the home dogs in this one and here’s why. First, the Browns have played just one road game this season and they lost that one to the Steelers. They haven’t played a road game in over a month which is a significant factor to handicap. They’ve also had the distraction of whether QB Deshaun Watson will toughen it up and play this week. His status is still questionable.
Lastly, the Colts are 3-1 outside of playing Jacksonville. They’ve beaten the Ravens, another AFC North team, with Gardner Minshew at QB. Their biggest weakness is their defense, but the Browns biggest weakness is offense. The Browns rank 22nd in Offensive DVOA and 20th in yards per game. The Browns passing game is even worse, ranking 31st in both DVOA and passing yards per game.
This game has a total of 41, one of the lower on the slate, so in a matchup that looks to be even, I’ll take the points and the Colts.
I’ve been good with backing Detroit this season until last week when they won at Tampa. Their defensive prowess was on display as they made Baker Mayfield look like……Baker Mayfield. But this week, they have a much more challenging task trying to contain Lamar Jackson. The Ravens won in London last week against the Titans and spent as little time overseas as possible as they flew in on Friday and left immediately after their win. That doesn’t work for everyone, but it did for John Harbaugh’s team. So unlike week’s past, where I tried to fade a team coming back from Europe, I am actually backing the Ravens because of their unique travel plans.
Add to that, the Lions are on their 2nd straight road game and 3rd in four weeks. They are without their leading rusher as well as some other key components. While the Lions are third overall in total defensive DVOA, the Ravens are second. With the defensive stalemate, and the teams having similar offenses, I look at this game to be a battle of QB’s and coaches. And in both situations, I favor the Ravens. The Lions are very good and will be in the Super Bowl talk all season, but this is a step up in class and one in which Baltimore will be focused to take advantage of.
No NFL spread this week has moved more than the game between the Falcons and Bucs. Atlanta opened as a small favorite but has now been pushed to a 2.5-point underdog. The optics are bad in Atlanta, as they are coming off two poor performances in which their QB struggled. And since Week 1, they are now 0-5 ATS. Last week’s loss to Washington was a combination of several things, but the main reason was a 0-3 turnover ratio.
The Bucs on the other hand have beaten the Vikings, Bears and Saints. Not necessarily a murder’s row of teams. And the one area in which Atlanta struggles, pass defense, is not particularly the strength of the Bucs. Add to that, the public is hammering Tampa with 65% of the bets and 65% of the money coming in on Bucs. I’ll fade them here as we have the classic case of recency bias with Atlanta struggling and the Bucs sitting at 3-2 and atop the NFC South.
The Chargers did Chargers things again last Monday night as they threw the game away versus the Dallas Cowboys. With a potential game winning drive, QB Justin Herbert threw a critical interception allowing the Boys to come home with a much needed road victory.
In Mahomes career, he is 7-2 against the Chargers with a 99,9 passer rating. Last season he went 2-0 against LA and threw for 574 yards eith 5 TDs and 0 INT’s. While he owns the Broncos and Raiders, he tends to play his best ball against LA. I just can’t trust Brandon Staley, or Justin Herbert, in a close game against Andy Reid and Mahomes. The Chiefs have not impressed the public bettors of late but are 4-2 ATS this season including 2-1 at home. This is a chance for KC to put a stranglehold on the AFC West Division Title for an 8th straight season. And I expect them to take full advantage of that opportunity.
At this point, you have probably taken the 49ers and Chiefs. So, we have to look outside the normal NFL powerhouses for our survivor play and we have a good one with Seattle. The Cardinals, after their nice start, have been outscored 95-45 over the past 3 weeks. And the Seahawks won both games by double digits against Arizona last season.
The only other play I feel that has some upside is the Washington Commanders. But I took them in Week 1 against Arizona so they’re off the board for me.
Good luck all and keep the win streak alive!
Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
NFL Week 6 left us with more injuries and more questions. With so many teams on a bye (6 this week), looking for a QB will be tough. Could Sam Howell be the answer? Julia Papworth is here to break down ownership percentages and strategies for adding players to your team!
Make sure to keep it locked in every Tuesday for her gems and follow her on socials (@juliapapworth) for all her great content.
At WinDailySports.com we will turn your love of sports into a profit center. From our projection models, lineup optimizer, articles, cheat sheets, videos and our expert chat our team of pros are here to help you dominate on DraftKings, FanDuel, and with player props on Prize Picks.
At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.
