We once again hit 6 out of the top 10 RBs in Week 8. Most importantly we hit on four of the top five scorers and two of those were in the milli-maker winner (Breece Hall and Alvin Kamara). We’re back to bye week’s in Week 9 so we just have 10 games to choose from this week. On the surface, there are a few good options in Tier 1, but most of our work this week will be finding the value in Tier 3.

Please check out Stix’s weekly projections when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also, remember to check out the NFL Pre-Lock Show on Sunday at 11 am on YouTube.

I highlight my favorite ten RBs each week and break them into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). So, let’s get started with the top ten running backs of Week 3 in the NFL.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

ALVIN KAMARA $8100 DraftKings $8300 FanDuel

Kamara has been the best fantasy RB in the NFL since his return from suspension in Week 4. Over that five game stretch he’s averaging 22.8 DK points, and his floor has been 17.4. He has a staggering 39 catches in five games putting him on for over 100 catches this year.

His reward this week is facing a Bears team that is allowing the 26th most fantasy points to RB’s. While the Bears have been stingy against the run, they’ve allowed the 2nd most receptions to RBs (48) and allowed the most receiving TDs (5). Understanding Kamara’s role in the offense makes this a great matchup and smash spot for the Saints RB.

SAQUON BARKLEY $7900 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

Barkley’s volume has been astounding the past few weeks. Last week alone, he was on the field for 89% of the snaps and received 39 touches. I guess you can do that when you don’t have an investment into your star RB past this season. So it looks like this will be more of the same for the Giants as they weave through a season that is looking bleaker and bleaker by the day.

But the good news for us fantasy owners is that Barkley, when paired against the right defense, will be in play for DFS based on his volume alone. This week he gets to face the Raiders who we just saw get bludgeoned by Jahmyr Gibbs and the Detroit Lions O-Line. They are allowing the 3rd most points to RBs and the 2nd most rushing yards per game. And they just fired a whole bunch of people leaving the D-coordinator to now put together a game plan in 6 days. This is a great spot for Barkley to pick-up where the Lions left off.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

JOSH JACOBS $6900 DraftKings $7700 FanDuel

I said this last year and I’ll say it again in 2023, when Josh Jacobs is the focus of the offense the Raiders typically win ball games. So far this season, the Raiders are 2-0 when Jacobs has received 20+ carries. In 2022, they were 6-3 in such occurrences. And that’s probably a big reason why Josh McDaniels is gone. This week, I expect Raiders interim HC Antonio Pierce to keep it simple and feed Jacobs the ball. For one, the Raiders are starting a rookie QB so they will need to establish and lean on the run game.

And secondly, the Giants are bad at stopping the run. Like real bad. They are 27th in rushing defense DVOA and have allowed the 8th most rushing yards per game in the league at 127.4. In fact, six of the Giants eight opponents have rushed for more than 100 yards against them. Jacobs is in line for a big week against a little Blue defense.

D’ANDRE SWIFT $6600 DraftKings $6200 FanDuel

The Cowboys have not faced any real rushing threats outside the 49ers. So their inflated stats on defense, particularly against the run, are misleading. In that game against San Fran, the 49ers ran for 170 yards. They have faced two other opponents with a top 10 rushing offense, according to DVOA, and allowed 222 rushing yards to the Cardinals and 94 rushing yards to the Rams (Cowboys were up by 27 and Rams abandoned the run).

Their opponent this week, the Eagles, also boast a top 10 rushing offense. And with Hurts having potential injury concerns, there is an opportunity for the Eagles to focus on their running game. I believe this is a very good spot for Swift to breakout as he will be under-owned due to the Cowboys defensive metrics. But as shown above, those are very misleading numbers and they can be vulnerable to good rushing offenses.

JONATHAN TAYLOR $6400 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

This is my favorite spot of the week. And I’m likely eating chalk. But that’s OK because the price and the matchup is too good to pass up. First off, Taylor is back despite the split in stats with Zack Moss. Last week JT had 94 yards rushing in the first half and got just one carry the entire second half. It was clearly a lapse in judgment by HC Shane Steichen and something he will need to atone for this week against Carolina.

That’s because the Panthers have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to RBs. And they are allowing the 3rd most rushing yards per game at 139.4. Taylor’s usage has increased every week, and he received a season high 61% of the snaps last week. Expect that number to go up and for Steichen to lean on his star RB against a porous run defense in Carolina.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

GUS EDWARDS $5900 DraftKings $7300 FanDuel

The Gus Bus is back and is rolling over anything in its way. In the last two weeks, Edwards has received the goal line carries and punched it in the endzone four times. He’s also getting more touches than Justice Hill by a 3-1 ratio. And now that the trade deadline has gone and past, with no real improvement to the backfield, this is Edwards job to lose.

This week he gets a fairly tough matchup as Seattle sits inside the top 10 in most defensive rushing metrics. But they have allowed six rushing touchdowns which is the 7th most in the NFL. And all of those have been from inside the 10 yard line. So as long as Baltimore is moving the ball in the air to inside the redzone, Edwards will be able to get many opportunities to keep his TD streak alive. As well as put up valuable fantasy numbers.

RASCHAAD WHITE DraftKings $5600 FanDuel $6600

The Bucs RB has returned to fantasy RB option after two solid weeks. The rushing yards are still lacking but his involvement in the passing game has added value to his stat line. Over the past two weeks, White has 13 receptions and has averaged 16.9 DK points. This week he faces Houston who is allowing 5 receptions per game to RBs. They’ve also allowed the 13th most fantasy points to RBs. So White is in a solid spot though his ceiling isn’t as high as others due to the issues with Tampa’s running game.

KAREEM HUNT DraftKings $5500 FanDuel $6600

Kareem Hunt shared duties with Jerome Ford but had the higher output last week in Seattle. In fact, it was almost a 3-way split in snaps as Pierre Strong also joined the backfield attack. In the end, Hunt had the most touches and is the biggest threat running the ball. Which is important as the Browns opponent this week, the Arizona Cardinals, allow the 7th most rushing yards per game and the 3rd most fantasy points to RBs. It’s a crowded backfield, but I lean toward Hunt as having the highest ceiling in a favorable matchup.

CHUBBA HUBBARD DraftKings $5000 FanDuel $6600

Hubbard received 67% of the snaps and 70% of the touches last week signifying an obvious shift in Carolina’s backfield hierarchy. Miles Sanders, the Panthers prized FA, received just 2 touches and 10% of the snaps. So while this is a dumpster dive in terms of salary, there is high value in deploying Hubbard versus a week Indianapolis run D. The Colts rank 24th in rushing defense DVOA and allow the 5th most points to RBs.

RB PROP BETS

TBD

Now that you finished reading the NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

We had a solid output in Week 7 as we hit on six of the top ten RB’s. Highly owned RB’s such as Kenneth Walker, Isiah Pacheco, and Jerome Ford paid off in a big way. But a low ownership play such as James Cook provided to pay dividends as well. Overall, I’ll hand out a B+ as the winning lineups in most GPP’s had both our primary RB’ (Gibbs and Ford). And six out of ten ain’t bad!

As we roll into Week 8, we’re back to a full slate as there are no byes this weekend. Therefore, we have 13 games on the main card meaning lots of options to choose from. After last night’s DraftCast, it’s clear to me there are good options across each of our tiers. While I don’t necessarily recommend spending up for RB’s, there are a few cases this week that make sense. But if you choose that route, you’ll have to pair those with a cheaper option on the board.

Please check out Stix’s weekly projections when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also, remember to check out the NFL Pre-Lock Show on Sunday at 11 am on YouTube.

I highlight my favorite ten RBs each week and break them into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). So, let’s get started with the top ten running backs of Week 3 in the NFL.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY $9200 DraftKings $8300 FanDuel

Three words for you this week: Brock Purdy Concussion. If you thought Kyle Shannahan was conservative in his passing game with a healthy Brock Purdy, wait until you see his gameplan this week. Purdy had only two games in 2022 where he was asked to throw more than 30 attempts. There’s just no way, especially coming off two consecutive losses and a concussion, that the 49ers HC will implement a pass happy gameplan this week. Then there’s other small factors such as Deebo Samuel missing another game (already ruled out) and the Bengals run defense being their weakness.

And about that Bengals D, they are ranked 27th in rushing defense DVOA. According to PFF, Cincy has the 4th worst rated run defense using their advanced metrics. They are allowing the 8th most rushing yards per game to RB’s at 100.5/game. As long as he checks out healthy, this is a smash spot for league’s most productive RB.

SAQUON BARKLEY $8000 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

Another week and another good matchup for Saquon Barkley. The biggest issue for this spot is the game environment and pace as the Jets and Giants have the lowest total on the board at 36.5.

But what intrigues me here is the Jets have allowed the second most receptions to RB’s in the NFL. Per game, they are allowing an average of 6.8 receptions to backs. And Saquon has been an effective pass receiver reeling in 4 catches per week. Including one last week that went to the house. We are projecting 20+ touches once again for Barkley and considering he could see 5 or more targets makes him very valuable. Also, the Giants RB leads the NFL in snaps at 81% per game. This is a DraftKings only play based on that approach.

ALVIN KAMARA $7300 DraftKings $7500 FanDuel

The Saints offense may stink. But Alvin Kamara is a fantasy wonder since his return from suspension. He’s averaging 21.7 DK points per game as seen no less than 24 touches in the last four games. He’s catching at an elite pace too with an absurd 8.8 catches per game which has propelled him to the leading RB in touches per game.

And he gets a smash spot this week by facing the Colts. Indy allows the 3rd most points per game in the NFL at 30.1. They also allow the 4th most fantasy points to RBs largely in part because they’ve allowed 10 rushing TDs, 2nd highest in the league. Taking it one step further, they are ranked 18th in rushing defense DVOA. Add it all up, and you have Kamara in pole position this week in the return on value market for RBs.

TRAVIS ETIENNE $7200 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel

Travis Etienne has the 3rd highest snap count (79.9%) for RBs and the third highest touches per game (21.6). He’s a workhorse for a Jacksonville offense that has finally found it’s footing. Since scoring just 26 points combined in Week’s 2 & 3, the Jags have averaged 29 points/game over their past four contests. This week they face the Steelers who are allowed the 13th most points in the league (21.1) and fourth most rushing yards (142.3).

Pittsburgh is allowing almost 5 yards per carry but they one area in where they’ve played good run D is in the passing game. To date, they’ve allowed the fewest catches to RBs with only 18 surrendered. But regardless of that last stat, the Jags have an implied team total of 21.5 points and will feature Etienne of ~80% of their snaps. Combine that with a defense that does allow chunk plays on the ground and we have a good reason to deploy Etienne this weekend in the Steel City.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

D’ANDRE SWIFT $6300 DraftKings $7700 FanDuel

The Eagles faced the Commanders once this year already. And they escaped that game with an OT victory. Point is, the Eagles will have full attention to this game as they’ve already been pushed to the brink once by Washington. And with the 2nd overall run block unit, according to PFF, they will look to exploit their advantage at the line of scrimmage. While Washington is ranked 15th in rush defense DVOA, they have allowed 100+ yards rushing in 6 straight games. And the only game they didn’t allow 100 yards rushing this season was in Week 1 against Arizona, where they allowed 96.

Swift had success against Washington in Week 4 where he scored 17.6 fantasy points. He caught four balls in that game which is on par to what the Commanders average per week. Add that to his average of 16 carries per game over the past six weeks and we have potential for 20+ touches. Good enough for me at a reasonable price for a high upside RB.

JONATHAN TAYLOR $6200 DraftKings $6200 FanDuel

He’s back! It took a few weeks but Taylor eclipsed Moss in touches and snaps last week for the first time this season. We’re getting a Tier 1 RB for the price of a low Tier 2 back. That is just too good to match up regardless of the matchup. But speaking of matchup, the Saints have the 14th best rushing defense according to DVOA. Even more interesting, according to DVOA, they haven’t faced a rushing attack inside the top 14 in the league. In fact, they’ve faced four of the seven worst rushing attacks in the league. The Colts have the best rushing offense the Saints have played to date, ranking 6th in DVOA. For those reasons, and the projection Taylor will see an even bigger role, this is one of my favorite spots on the slate.

ISIAH PACHECO $6100 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

Denver is either last or next to last in almost all rushing defense metrics. They allow the most points to fantasy RBs and the most rushing yards per game, at 167.3. The question this week will be the weather as temperatures are supposed to be below 30 degrees by kickoff. And there could be 6-8 inches of snow. Crazy to think as we sit here with 80 degree weather on the East Coast.

But the snow doesn’t concern me as Pacheco will be able to hit holes and gain his yards on the ground. The issue will be his role in the receiving game which be reduced due to weather. But he’s still in play for me, but I may bring down my exposure by a few lineups because of the snow.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

BIJAN ROBINSON $6000 DraftKings $7300 FanDuel

Coach Arthur Smith is a joke. But he somehow won the game last week while giving his 1st round pick just one carry. You can play the narrative that he was sick all you want but I question why he was dressed and on the sidelines. Can’t eat your soup and drink your ginger ale while suited up.

But I think we’re in for a big bounce back this week. Bijan’s salary has dropped by 20% and owners are going to be leery of playing this game again after last weeks’ disappointment. And he’s facing Tennessee who has a top 10 rushing defense. All signs point to low ownership which means this is a good spot to get different with one of the best runners in the league.

BREECE HALL DraftKings $5900 FanDuel $6600

This will be a very popular play this week. But if the Jets are serious about winning, they will ensure Breece Hall sees plenty of touches. That’s because the Giants are 30th in rushing defense DVOA. And they’ve allowed the 2nd most rushing yards this season at 857. Hall has taken the lead role at RB, averaging 60% of the snaps and 75% of the touches the past two weeks.

KAREEM HUNT DraftKings $5200 FanDuel $6600

Kareem Hunt is primed to see a lion’s share of the touches this week for Cleveland as they travel to Seattle. The Seahawks have been solid against the run, but that’s primarily due to their pass defense being one of the worst in the league. Meanwhile, Hunt has averaged 15.6 fantasy points over the last two weeks and that’s on just an average of 12 touches per game. Assuming we see 15+ touches, Hunt has a chance for 4-5x value this week.

RB PROP BETS

TBD

Now that you finished reading the NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.