Football

We are keeping ahead of the sticks here at WinDaily with our weekly NFL Game Bets. Unlike other sites, we post our picks, good and bad, and track our record. Posting a 58% win rate against the spread is good. But our bar is higher and we’re looking to get there over the next 5 weeks.

Week 13 was interesting as it saw a staggering number of road teams cover. In fact, the away teams were 10-3 ATS last week. The public held tough with the books going 6-7 ATS. But Vegas rallied late and took home wins with SF, Green Bay and Cincy to salvage the week.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 32-23 (last week 2-2)

NFL BETS WEEK 14

BALTIMORE RAVENS -7.5 vs LA RAMS

Lamar Jackson versus NFC teams is like a cheat code. The Ravens QB is 20-1 in his career SU against NFC opponents. Speaking of this season alone, Baltimore is 3-0 against the other conference and has outscored those opponents by a score of 106-33. They’ve played two of those games at home, against quality teams in Detroit and Seattle, and won those games by a margin of 75-9. The Rams have been a nice story this season, showing that HC Sean McVay still has more in the tank. But the Rams weaknesses are the Ravens strengths. The Rams have a top 10 pass offense but the Ravens rank 2nd in pass coverage according to PFF. On the other side, the Ravens have the #1 rush offense according to DVOA and the Rams have the 21st rushing defense in DVOA.

LA CHARGERS -2.5 vs DENVER BRONCOS

The Broncos turnover luck regressed last week as they lost the TO battle for the first time in six weeks. That ended up costing them the game in Houston as the Texans walked away with a last-minute victory by intercepting Russell Wilson to seal the game. The Chargers are a different story as their highly acclaimed offense took a back seat to their maligned defense last week as LA beat NE by a score of 6-0.

But I expect that to change this week as the Chargers offense will look to break out against the league’s 31st ranked defense in Denver. While I hate to lean on the Chargers in close games (0-6 in games decided by 4 points or less), Denver is just 2-3 SU away from home and 1-4 ATS.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -5.5 vs CAROLINA PANTHERS

The Saints are on a three game losing streak and fading in the NFC South race. But they welcome in the worst team in the league today in the Carolina Panthers to help end their streak of attrition. The Panthers are coming off a back-door cover in Tampa last week as they competed but lost 21-18. Speaking of back-door covers, that’s exactly what Carolina did to New Orleans back in Week 2 when Bryce Young threw a TD with one minute remaining to close the scoring at New Orleans 20 and Carolina 17.

But that luck only lasts so long. Carolina is now 0-7 on the road with four of those games being decided by double digits. The Saints advantage at the line should make a difference as Carolina has the 3rd worst pass blocking unit and the 5th worst run block rate.

TAMPA BAY BUCS +2.5 at ATLANTA FALCONS

Surprisingly enough, this is the biggest game in the NFC South and could ultimately determine the division winner. The Falcons won their first meeting against Tampa by a score of 16-13. With a win today, they would have a perfect 4-0 record in the division and a minimum 1.5 game lead in the NFC South. But instead, I’m backing the more desperate team today in Tampa for a few reasons. First, Tampa has played competitively away from home posting a 2-4 record but 4-2 ATS. Additionally, they’ve played four games in domes and are 2-2 but have a +11 point differential.

On the other side, the Falcons have been outgained by the Jets and Falcons in the last two weeks but found ways to win those games because of turnovers and one of those turning into a defensive TD. Much like Pittsburgh, it’s hard to continue to be outgained and win. And looking at the metrics, Tampa has the better units in all three phases according to DVOA:

• OFFENSE: Tampa 21st / Atlanta 24th
• DEFENSE: Tampa 14th / Atlanta 25th
• SPECIAL TEAMS: Tampa 24th / Atlanta 25th

SURVIVOR PICK NEW ORLEANS

A lot of survivor leagues have wrapped up due to big upsets last week in Pittsburgh and Jacksonville. But if you’re still going then your choices are probably limited. In that case, take the Saints today against the Panthers. New Orleans has not given us much confidence this season, but their advantages at the line and the noise in the dome should be enough to make Bryce Young cough up the ball once, or more.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

We are entering the final 1/3rd of the season and while there are still big DFS pots to take down, we’re also racing to finish the season in the plus as it pertains to our single game bets. We picked up two more wins last weekend now pushing our season total to 30 wins and +7.9 units.

Week 12 brought us a few crazy numbers to digest. First, the public went 10-5-1 on the week. And when the public wins we know the favorites are the primary source. And that was the case as favorites went 11-4-1 ATS. This throws up several red lights this week when assessing the card. As we all know, Vegas doesn’t like to lose (they’ve already started the week 1-0 with Seattle’s cover on TNF).

2023 SEASON RECORD: 30-21 (last week 2-2)

NFL BETS WEEK 13

NEW YORK JETS +2 vs ATLANTA FALCONS

The first question I’m going to get is “How do you back Tim Boyle”? And it’s a helluva question as I can’t answer that without some sort of smile. But this isn’t about backing Tim Boyle. If you were a Florida State bettor last night, did you back Brock Glenn (who threw for 55 yards in the game) or the FSU team and opponent? That’s really where this game lies with me. The Jets have one final at-bat this season and it’s today. Listen, 4-7 is likely out of it anyway but in the locker room they can talk themselves into still having a chance. And as long as they have that, the defense will be motivated enough to win this game by themselves.

The Falcons are 1-4 SU and ATS on the road this season. They’ve lost to two last place teams in the Titans and Cardinals. So why not make it three? In all seriousness, this is a good spot for the Jets as the Falcons are 22nd in scoring in the league. The Jets cannot keep any pace with a good offensive team but can hang tight with lower scoring opponents (lost one score games to NYG, LV, NE). I’ll rally behind the J-E-T-S and back the team with the better D today in NY.

HOUSTON TEXANS -3 vs DENVER BRONCOS

We faded the Texans last week in a game against Jacksonville and were able to come away with a W because of a fortunate bounce off the FG post. Speaking of fortunate, that’s exactly what Denver has been of late. They are currently riding a 5-game winning streak which is the longest in the NFL. In that stretch, they’ve forced 16 turnovers and are a +13 in TO differential. That’s staggering and not sustainable. Today they face Houston who has the 3rd lowest turnovers in the league with just 11. CJ Stroud is playing at an MVP level and has several weapons at his disposal to help attack a Denver D that is ranked 32nd in Defensive DVOA.

CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5 at TAMPA BAY BUCS

The Panthers finally pulled the plug on the Frank Reich era in Carolina. After a long eleven games, owner David Tepper made yet another coaching change. But in all seriousness, this is a move that had to happen. There was enough locker room division that the team had stopped hearing the message from their HC. And when that happens, to quote the famous Sam Cooke, a change is gonna come.

And that’s one of the primary reasons I’m backing the Panthers this week. They still have plenty to play for as they do not want to be the worst team in the league since they don’t own their 1st round pick. The Panthers also want to see development in Bryce Young which is a reason they didn’t anoint OC Thomas Brown to HC.

Then there’s the Bucs who are just out there doing mediocre things. After starting 3-1 they have now lost 6 of their last 7 games. They are ranked 16th on defense and 22nd on offense. They don’t do anything particularly well. So I’ll take a team that was looking for change, and can be freed up (similar to the Raiders after Josh McDaniels firing).

CLEVELAND BROWNS +4 at LOS ANGELES RAMS

It’s the eye test. And last week everyone witnessed a Browns team get beat by 17 in Denver and a Rams team beat the Cardinals by 23 in the desert. Add to that the Browns are forced into starting 38 year old Joe Flacco and the bettors are running to the windows to bet against Cleveland.

But I’ll say not so fast my friend. The Rams have the 8th worst pass blocking rate in the NFL according to PFF. And that’s bad news as the Browns own the 3rd best pass rushing win rate in the league. I think this is a Myles Garrett type of day and Cleveland will create havoc on the Rams O Line. Flacco should be able to just enough to get the ball to his talented WR’s and keep this game within striking distance. The matchup with the lines is what I’m focused on here and think four points is too much.

SURVIVOR PICK PITTSBURGH STEELERS

The Steelers are not worthy of their record. But that doesn’t matter to me when we’re focused on straight up wins. Coach Mike Tomlin just finds ways to win games. And the coach on the other sideline, finds ways to lose them. So that’s the analysis, Mike Tomlin vs Jonathan Gannon. Steelers win and keep us moving forward.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.