fighting

UFC Vegas 63

KATTAR V ALLEN

After an insane card last week in Abu Dhabi, we are back state-side for a UFC Fight Night card that is jam-packed with action. We have some newcomers and some returning faces on this card, and I can’t wait to break down today’s top plays. Today’s slate will start at 4:00 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 11-fights that will end with an action-packed featherweight fight which will have a lot of implications for the future of the division as both of these fighters are looking to propel themselves into the top 5 with a win here tonight. Now, let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines due to the possibility of low activity among these fighters. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 63 Kattar vs Allen.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Andrei Arlovski vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima

This matchup just goes to show how far the heavyweight division has fallen as an overall pool of talent. It’s now at a point where a 43-year-old fighter is finding himself on a four-fight win streak and six wins in his last seven, only losing to Tom Aspinall. However, de Lima is no Aspinall. De Lima has very little talent and is surviving in a UFC division that is deprived of talent. Let’s be honest about the situation, a 43-year-old would not be in the top 15 of a middleweight or flyweight division. This circus could only take place in the heavyweight or light heavyweight division. But let’s face facts, Arlovski has been outclassing these fighters for about a round and a half, then he gasses out. He does enough to win decisions, and oftentimes, his opponents will gas out, too and will be unable to finish him in the third round. This is a consistent trend in Arlovski’s recent fights. I am happy the legend has been able to extend his career in this way with a lot of wins, and I don’t see the story ending here since de Lima does not have the talent to beat Arlovski on the feet. Unless Arlovski’s skills really fell off a cliff since his last fight in April, I see a very similar story for his third fight of the year, and I like Arlovski in an underdog position tonight.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Andrei Arlovski UNANIMOUS DECISION

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Christian Rodriguez vs. Joshua Weems

Weems is making his UFC debut tonight against Christian Rodriguez, who himself is appearing in his second UFC fight tonight following a close loss to Jonathan Pearce, where Rodriguez was held on the ground for over 11 minutes of the fight. Rodriguez did have some impressive moments on the feet despite getting outclassed on the mat. Weems does have some skill on the ground, but his striking game is far behind Rodriguez’s to the point where I think Rodriguez will be able to set the pace of the fight with his sheer volume and based on the output of both of these fighters, I can see Weems just getting run over by the aggression of Rodriguez. We’re gonna see a lot of action in this one, and if Rodriguez can avoid the mat, he will fare well in this one.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Christian Rodriguez SECOND-ROUND KO.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Waldo Cortez-Acosta vs. Jared Vanderaa

For those who have kept an eye on the Arlovski late-career run. You may remember Vanderaa as one of Arlovski’s victims, as he lost to him in February of 2022. Since then, Vanderaa has lost two more times and is on a four-fight losing streak. It just goes to show how weak the heavyweight division in the UFC actually is that he’s been able to secure another fight in the UFC. I have seen Vanderaa’s poor MMA abilities since his appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series where he almost lost to Harry Hunsucker… yes, the one who went 0-3 in the UFC as well. It’s beyond me that either fighter from that matchup had any UFC career at all. Just to illustrate the point, Vanderaa has only had one win following the Hunsucker win back in 2020 and has racked up five losses. On the other side of this fight is Waldo Cortez-Acosta, an undefeated fighter out of the Dominican Republic who currently sits 7-0-0, with his last three fights coming by way of knockout (all of which took place in 2022). This fight won’t be competitive, and I don’t see Vanderaa having much of a UFC career beyond this fight, despite the fact that the heavyweight division is a shell of its former self.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Waldo Cortez-Acosta FIRST-ROUND KO

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Arnold Allen (5 ROUNDER)

Max Griffin

Tresean Gore DEEP GPP (A lot of people have Fremd winning this fight, and it is true that Gore has not shown a lot of ability following his injury that kept him out of the finale of the Ultimate Fighter as he lost to Bryan Battle and Cody Brundage, but Fremd has not been that impressive either as he lost his only fight in the UFC. Fremd will have a significant height advantage and a sizeable reach advantage, but Gore has the talent to make this a competitive fight, and I think he can work as a value piece for DFS)

Dustin Jacoby

Phil Hawes (Roman Dolidze can work as a value piece in this matchup, but this fight is between two high-level strikers, and what has me leaning ever so slightly towards Hawes is the fact that he strikes a lot more often than Dolidze with over three more SLpM and Hawes is a much harder striker as well. Dolidze’s path to victory in this one is a grapple fest like he did against Laureano Starapoli. That will be harder against Hawes, who currently sports a 100% Takedown Defence rate.)

Jun Yong Park

Chase Hooper (Chase will be shooting for Submissions for the entire fight, don’t expect a lot of standup in this one)

Carlos Mota (I like Mota by knockout in this one)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 2 UFC Parlays. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP-winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!

UFC 280

OLIVEIRA V MAKACHEV

We got a banger… Welcome back, everyone, to Win Daily’s Fight Night Deep Dive! We are back after two weaker cards we are coming into today with one of the BIGGEST, MOST ANTICIPATED cards of the year! Today’s slate will start at 10:00 AM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 12-fights that will end with two title fights in the Men’s Lightweight and Bantamweight Divisions. Let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 10:00 AM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines due to the possibility of low activity among these fighters. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 280 Oliveira vs Makachev.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makachev

I usually don’t do this, I never list the main event within my three plays of the day, but this card is different. There are a couple of underdogs who could do some damage, AJ Dobson, Sean O’Malley and Gadzhi Omargadzhiev, but something about this fight makes me lack a lot of confidence in Makachev. Trust me, I’ve been burned by Oliveira wins before, whenever he is an underdog, he rises to the occasion. That’s been a theme of the 11-fight winning streak he is currently on. On the Makachev side of things, he’s a known quantity, his grappling is the same, and overall he’s a little below Khabib’s level but has adopted a very similar fighting style, and the Eagle will be in his corner to give directions on how to take control of the fight. Makachev has some serious holes in his game, he’s been able to cover them up against guys who are not on the same level as him when it comes to grappling, but Oliveira will be a problem for him on the ground. I think this is a very likely upset, and although I wouldn’t include it in your safe parlays, I would definitely take the risk in DFS and on some riskier parlays.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Charles Oliveira THIRD-ROUND KO

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Sean Brady vs. Belal Muhammad

Here we have a Philly v Chicago matchup, and no, this is not the Blackhawks vs the Flyers. This matchup is going to be more of a wrestling exhibition, as I don’t think I’ve seen either of these fighters rely on anything but their grappling to rack up UFC wins. Muhammad is known for having one of the most boring fight styles in the UFC, and although Brady keeps things more interesting, he still has a fighting game largely dominated by wrestling. Belal has an average fight time of 14 minutes, and Brady’s is around 13 minutes, so they both go to the judges’ cards a lot. Similarly, both hold similar striking stats, with their Strikes Landed per Minute (or SLpM) around 4 and their Strikes Absorbed per Minute (or SApM) around 3. Evens out to a Strike Differential (or SD) of around +1. Where they break apart, however, is in the grappling department. Brady has a much better takedown accuracy of 60% compared to Belal’s 35%, and Brady averages nearly one more takedown more than Belal per fight. Brady also currently carries a perfect record and has a much more developed grappling game than Belal, I think that this matchup will kick Belal out of the top five and out of the title conversation. He is simply punching above his weight right now.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Sean Brady UNANIMOUS DECISION.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Muhammad Mokaev vs. Malcolm Gordon

This is easily the biggest mismatch on the card. Mokaev is an undefeated prospect coming out of the United Kingdom and has some of the greatest fundamentals out of any prospect that we’ve seen in a long time. Gordon has been dealt a really bad hand in this matchup, and I see Mokaev getting the job done quickly in the first round. Gordon can keep things competitive on the feet, but once he gets taken down, it’s game over. I think there is some good value in an under two rounds or even first-round finish prop, but if you can find Mokaev by finish (both KO and SUB), then I would definitely recommend hopping on that line for your parlays. Bet365 currently has it listed as -250. This is not to say that Mokaev won’t face some challenges as he rises through the UFC ranks, but this matchup should not be competitive, and I can definitely see Mokaev reaching the potential of a top-5 flyweight or maybe even a champion or title contender one day.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Muhammad Mokaev FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

TJ Dillashaw (5 ROUNDER) (Very close matchup between Dillashaw and Sterling, although I know that Sterling has a very good grappling pedigree [which is why he can be known as the human backpack], I think this fight stays on the feet for the majority of the time and assuming it goes to the judges, in a 25-minute grudge match, I think Dillashaw is more consistent and has a better long term game that will make the difference.)

Petr Yan (Although I like Yan to win based on his hand speed and punching power, I think there is some value in O’Malley as an underdog, on paper Petr Yan should be ahead of O’Malley, but Yan usually takes a round to settle in if O’Malley could use that to his advantage and put the pressure on early, he could surprise people. Despite that, I still can’t underestimate Yan’s Muy Thai kicks, and we have seen O’Malley get severely compromised by kicks in the past that were nowhere near the level of what Yan will be able to do)

Mateusz Gamrot (This one was tricky for me to decide on, both fighters have their strengths and are definitely deserving of their place in the Lightweight division, but I think that Gamrot has more experience, is more well-rounded and has had a stronger strength of schedule. Not to mention, I cannot even explain how impressive it is to hold a win over Arman Tsarukyan. That fight is rightly considered a contender for fight of the year.)

Manon Fiorot

Caio Borralho

Nikita Krylov

Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (This is definitely one of the closer fights on the card, and although it could go either way, I think Omargadzhiev has been the more consistent fighter, and I like him in this position as an underdog.)

Armen Petrosyan

Karol Rosa FADE

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 2 UFC Parlays. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP-winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!

UFC Vegas 62

GRASSO V ARAUJO

Welcome back, everyone, to Win Daily’s Fight Night Deep Dive! We are back for our first card in two weeks! Like our last UFC card, we have a lighter card for today’s UFC Fight Night Slate. Today’s slate will start at 4:00 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 11-fights that will end with a fight between two top women’s flyweights who can get themselves into the title picture with a win tonight. Let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines due to the possibility of low activity among these fighters. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 62 Grasso vs Araujo

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Cub Swanson vs. Jonathan Martinez

If this fight took place even 5 years ago, this wouldn’t be a question, but with Cub coming in at 38 years old and with a 10-year age difference from his opponent, it’s hard to say that this matchup is so clear-cut for him. What impresses me the most about Cub is even though he came in this one on weight, he is coming from featherweight, so he cut an extra 10 pounds more than he usually would in order to make bantamweight. The biggest thing Cub has going for him is his experience. Even though Martinez has 10 fights in the UFC (not all of which have gone to plan), Swanson has a whopping 29 fights in the UFC and WEC, including wins over Charles Oliveira and Dustin Poirier. Cub has had a legendary career and looks ready coming out of this fight camp. I don’t see any signs of him slowing down, and I think he’ll be able to pull out a decision win in the co-main tonight.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Cub Swanson UNANIMOUS DECISION

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Mike Jackson vs. Pete Rodriguez

Both of these fighters have interesting stories about how they got into the UFC and their time in the organization. Pete Rodriguez won four professional fights in iKon by knockout in the first round and was granted a UFC debut against Jack Della Maddalena, who then proceeded to knock him out in the first round with a clean counter left. Mike Jackson… well, he’s been in the UFC since 2016 when he lost to Mickey Gall and has had two fights since then, a win against CM Punk which turned into a no-contest after he tested positive for Marijuana and a DQ win over Dean Barry earlier this year when he got eye poked and could not continue. His performance against CM Punk was so bad that Dana famously stated that Mike Jackson would not fight again in the UFC but fast forward six years later, and he’s in his second fight of the year! This fight should be very straightforward. Rodriguez is going to pick Jackson apart as Barry was before the eye poke. I don’t see this fight going out of the first round, and has clear potential to finish in the first minute as well.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Pete Rodriguez FIRST-ROUND KO.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Tatsuro Taira vs. CJ Vergara

Taira came into the UFC with massive hype around his ground game, but in his first UFC fight, he showed off a good striking ability as well. If it weren’t for the fight inside Carlos Candelario that night, it would’ve ended earlier via Submission in the second round. I haven’t seen enough out of Vergara to prove to me that he can keep up with Taira, and in fact, I have seen Vergara get really lucky in a few of his fights with either his matchups against much weaker opponents or some help from the judges on the scorecard. For Taira, no matter where the fight goes, he can be competitive, and once he brings Vergara to the ground, it’s game over.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Tatsuro Taira SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Alexa Grasso (5 ROUNDER)

Dusko Todorovic (Both of these fighters have had shaky UFC careers and have serious knockout power, but I think Dusko has a bit more of an advantage in this matchup. I could understand if you lean towards Wright in this matchup)

Alonzo Menifield (Cirkunov has been so bad lately, and I think he’s at actual risk of getting cut if he doesn’t perform tonight. On top of that pressure, he’s fighting a weight class up at light heavyweight, where Menifield usually fights. I think Cirkunov only works in deep GPP formats (especially when putting in a lot of lines). I wouldn’t recommend him in most cases)

Mana Martinez (Davis is really bad… I don’t see him lasting very long in the UFC)

Victor Henry (I wasn’t aware that Assuncao was still in the UFC, but at 40 years old and on a 4-fight losing streak coming into it, I don’t see him lasting much longer. Henry will win convincingly)

Nick Maximov GPP (Malkoun has recorded a few wins that I didn’t think he would get, but he got those wins via laying on top of his opponent for 10 minutes and occasionally throwing some punches. Maximov is a seasoned Jiu-Jitsu fighter coming out of the Diaz Brother’s gym in Stockton, so Malkoun’s usual fight strategy will be very ineffective tonight)

Joanderson Brito

Piera Rodriguez FADE (Sam Hughes is not good, but in her wins, her opponents managed to be worse than she is. Rodriguez will pick her apart for 15 minutes I see this one going directly to the judges score cards in a UD win for Rodriguez)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 1 UFC Parlay. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP-winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!

UFC Vegas 61

DERN V YAN

Welcome back, everyone, to Win Daily’s Fight Night Deep Dive! After a week off, we have a lighter card for today’s UFC Fight Night Slate. Today’s slate will start at 4:00 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 12-fights that will end with a fight between two top women’s strawweights who can get themselves into the title picture with a win tonight. Let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines due to the possibility of low activity among these fighters. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 61 Dern vs Yan

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Jesse Ronson vs. Joaquim Silva

Oh wow, this matchup is definitely a “Bad vs Worse” situation. I don’t think either of these fighters have much of a future in the UFC. However, I have seen some success out of Ronson recently to make me comfortable in picking him for this matchup. His opponent, Silva, has not won a UFC fight since 2018 and has not fought in the octagon in well over a year. Ronson will have to keep things off the ground as Silva is a BJJ Black belt, but if Ronson is able to keep his distance, he’ll be able to use his kicks to deal damage and take control over the fight. In short, this is not a sure thing but compared to the other fights on the card, it’s our best option.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Jesse Ronson UNANIMOUS DECISION

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Randy Brown vs. Fransisco Trinaldo

Trinaldo is a true vet, having fought in the UFC since 2012, he’s racked up a lot of wins and earned a lot of respect to his name yet despite some recent success’ I think the matchup against Randy Brown is one hill he wont be able to climb. Both fighters are BJJ Brown Belts and are 5-1-0 in their last six matchups but Brown has had much stronger matchups and more convincing wins. Trinaldo is also getting up there in age, coming in 12 years older than his opponent at 44 years old. At that age, durability and tank become serious concerns very fast. I don’t know if Trinaldo has a lot of UFC fights left in him (he is definitely still capable of taking out the bottom level of UFC competition) but I do not see him getting past Brown in this matchup especially if the fight goes into the later rounds.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Randy Brown SECOND ROUND KO.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Don Shainis

Shainis is coming into this one after a big win in Cage Titans earlier this year. Who did he fight you might ask? Brice Picaud, who sits at a record of 9-8. Shainis’ record is very wonk and includes a lot of cans including the greatest can of all time Jay Ellis, who Shainis handed his 105th loss. (Yes the same Jay Ellis who beat Gerald Meerschaert) Bottom line is that the UFC is a different game and making your debut with a padded record against a seasoned UFC fighter in Yusuff is a recipe for disaster. Not to mention that Shainis is coming in on short notice after Yusuff’s matchup against Chikadze fell through. This one should be quick and easy for Yusuff.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Sodiq Yusuff FIRST-ROUND KO

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Mackenzie Dern (5 ROUNDER)

Raoni Barcelos (I think Trevin Jones has a lot of value as an underdog in this matchup, he’s surprised us before and he can surprise us again, only use him in DEEP GPP tournaments though)

Mike Davis (Borshchev was a huge let down in his last fight. He is playable, and if you are going for many lines, he can definitely work in a few. However, I think Davis is rightly the favorite and can put Borshchev away)

John Castaneda (I think Castaneda is rightly the favourite in this matchup but I do see a world where Santos pulls out a win, he’s a very unusual fighter and can cause some problems for Castaneda. Santos is another option for your GPP tournaments)

Aleksei Oleinik

Brendan Allen GPP (It’s close but Allen seems to be a little more skilled than Jotko but I will say Allen was very lucky to get the win over Malkoun, tread with caution if you’re considering Allen or Jotko)

Maxim Grishin

Julia Stoliarenko FADE (Her big advantage is in the grappling department, so I see this fight turning into a contest on the mat for 15 minutes)

Randy Costa FADE (Neither of these two are particularly great but Costa probably has a longer future in the UFC than Cannetti, despite winning his last fight over Moutinho, I think Cannetti would have to put on quite a performance to get another fight in the UFC)

Trevin Giles

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 1 UFC Parlay. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP-winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!