Fight

UFC 266.

VOLKANOVSKI VS ORTEGA

I hope you were able to do well off of the last article, I saw a lot of good success in the chat, let’s hope for more success again tonight. Tonight, we have a slate that starts at 6:00 PM EST and has 13 action-packed fights including 3 five-round fights!! For one of the most anticipated cards of the year! So let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM EST

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights but this fight is not between two high output fighters. I will not be branching away from the Main Event for my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 266 Volkanovski v Ortega.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Jonathan Pearce (+130) (DK 7700) (FD $13) vs. Omar Morales (-160) (DK 8500) (FD $17).

Both fighters have good experience under their belt and both have had Bellator experience before finding success on the DWCS. Since then he had a very questionable loss to Joe Lauzon (which has soured him in the eyes of many) and a very impressive win against a middle of the road opponent in Kai Kamaka. This matchup is a step up for Pearce as he has never faced anyone with the striking pedigree of Omar Morales. Frankly, Pearce is a much higher volume striker than Morales, holding an 8.80 SLpM to Morales’ 3.66 SLpM and although Pearce does leave himself open to shots sometimes, as Kai Kamaka found out, its really hard to keep up with Pearce’s striking output. The other area where Pearce holds a decided advantage over Morales is on the ground and if Pearce is able to bring Morales into his world and neutralize the kicks, this is Pearce’s fight to win. Given that Pearce has a 90% finish rate, I think he’ll be able to do it inside the distance as well.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Jonathan Pearce (+130) (DK 7700) (FD $13). SECOND ROUND TKO. (Possible Unanimous Decision)

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Matt Semelsberger (-500) (DK 9400) (FD $22) vs. Martin Sano (+380) (DK 6800) (FD $8).

Ok, so the only reason why Sano is on this card or even in the UFC for that matter is because of Nick Diaz. Essentially, Nick Diaz said he wouldn’t come back unless Sano was on the card. There is no other reason why Sano would be in the UFC, much less against talented competition such as Semi. Sano is 4-2-1 in his career, going 0-2-1 in his last three fights, the last one of which was in 2017!! This will not be a competitive fight and Semi the Jedi should be taking care of business fairly quickly here. His price is high but that is fairly expected considering what a joke of a matchup this is…

MY UFC DFS PICK: Matt Semelsberger (-500) (DK 9400) (FD $22) FIRST ROUND TKO (possible SECOND ROUND TKO).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Valentina Shevchenko (-1400) (DK 9500) (FD $23) vs. Lauren Murphy (+800) (DK 6700) (FD $10).

Now, what I am about to say doesn’t negate the fact that Lauren Murphy has earned this title shot, she has. She has won her last five fights, against decent competition but none of her five wins will even come close to comparing to the fight she’ll be in tonight against the champ, Bullet Valentina. Valentina is the more talented fighter in every way shape and form and Murphy truly has no chance tonight. Murphy is a very sloppy fighter and often leaves herself open to damaging attacks, this will be fully exploited by Shevchenko and I do not see this fight lasting long at all. I don’t usually do this but I will have Shevchenko in most if not all of my captain spots on FanDuel. There is no way to stress this further, you need Shevchenko in the vast majority of your lineups tonight and if you’re only running one line, you gotta have her in there.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Valentina Shevchenko (-1400) (DK 9500) (FD $23) FIRST ROUND TKO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Brian Ortega (5 ROUNDER) +150 (DK 7600) (FD $16) (As far as title matchups go, this is one of the closer ones in the UFC. Volk did well against Holloway considering that Holloway is one of the best strikers in the history of the sport but both of Volkanovski’s wins were questionable, especially the second one in my opinion. With Ortega on the other hand, he was pretty soundly defeated by Holloway, the only blemish on an otherwise unbeaten record. Then in his next fight, he comes out and absolutely starches the Korean Zombie for five straight rounds, a good striker in his own right. Volkanovski is a very well rounded fighter and can compete in all aspects of MMA whereas Ortega excels particularly well at a lot of aspects such as BJJ (Ortega has a 1st Degree Black Belt under Rener Gracie whereas Volkanovski has a Brown Belt). The deciding factor will be whether or not Ortega can dictate the fight. Its clear that Volko will have to rely heavily on the kicks to limit Ortega’s mobility because if Ortega can dictate the pace of the fight and where the fight takes place Volko is in serious trouble. I like a lot of what I’ve been seeing out of Ortega as of late and because of that I am definitely comfortable taking the underdog in this five round title fight. This is a close fight so I definitely understand taking Volk to retain the belt, but I see this one going the other way.)

Robby Lawler (5 ROUNDER) -150 (DK 8300) (FD $16) (Despite the fact that this whole card was built around Nick Diaz, it just doesn’t seem like his head is in the game and that’s very dangerous in the top level of professional MMA. Diaz’s moneyline fell dramatically as the week went on. Regardless of this Diaz hasn’t fought in over five years and hasn’t won since 2011. Now, this is definitely not against the old Bobby Violence that Diaz fought in their first matchup back in 2004 [UFC 47!!!] but Bobby is coming into this as the fresher fighter having fought last year and this is a five rounder so given that Nick has looked like he has become less “in-shape” over the last year and doesn’t look like his head is in the right space, we have to take Lawler on this one.)

Nick Maximov -138 (DK 8000) (FD $18) (Stellar BJJ Pedigree, like Martin Sano, he is on this card because he is friends with Nick Diaz. Unlike Sano, he actually deserves it. Brundage is a good matchup for him but Brundage is coming in on short notice and will most likely get submitted. Maximov was also able to take down Oscar Cota twice in his DWCS fight which was at heavyweight, despite the near 60 lbs weight difference between the two. This fight is at middleweight and Maximov should have a much easier time bringing Brundage down. This is however a closer fight for Maximov when compared to his previous opponent Karl Roberson.)

Uros Medic -125 (DK 8400) (FD $15) (This was a tough call as we have two great up and comers, it’s because of that why Medic is so affordable, under many other circumstances he wouldn’t be. I think Turner has a bright future in the UFC but Medic is a monster with a 100% finish rate and a 7-0-0 record and he has only made it to the second round once in his entire career. This is gonna be an interesting one, I may have shares of both [in different lines] but I am definitely favouring the Serbian. Again, keep in mind that after this matchup, you most likely wont see Medic this cheap ever again…)

Taila Santos -400 (DK 9300) (FD $21) (Fade Overall, Roxy is a legend and one of the Pioneers of women’s MMA but she’s outmatched in this one)

Chris Daukaus -200 (DK 8800) (FD $19) (His opponent hasn’t fought since 2019, whereas Daukaus has had three fights [all 1st RD KOs] in that time. Daukaus’ quick rise has already shown us his deadly KO power and as we have seen that throughout Abdurakhimov’s career, he hasn’t really handle that style, especially as of late. I see Daukaus getting an early KO, similar to his fight against Oleinik.)

Nasrat Haqparast GPP +137 (DK 7500) (FD $14) (Risky as this is Haqparast’s first real test within the organization against a much more seasoned fighter in Hooker. Haqparast has a solid striking game but his wrestling and BJJ leave a lot to be desired. Luckily Hooker is not great on the ground and I foresee a classic stand-and-bang fight in this matchup. Haqparast will have to watch Hookers knees and avoid being on the back foot early as neither of these two are good counter punchers but Haqparast has a higher SLpM and a lower SApM, given that increased striking volume, I’m taking the dog Haqparast in this one, but if you decide to go with Hooker, I understand where you’re coming from.)

Merab Dvalishvili -250 (DK 8900) (FD $21) (Fighters going in opposite directions in their careers Moraes, the former title challenger, is on his way down while the Georgian Dvalishvili has won his last six fights all in the UFC, I see a clear decision win here from Dvalishvili.)

Curtis Blaydes -300 (DK 9200) (FD $14) (Jairzinho has heavy hands and as we saw in Blaydes’ last fight against Derrick Lewis, one clean hit can end it all. That being said if Curtis sticks to his gameplan and takes Jairzinho down, the fight will basically be over and Blaydes will cruise to a win, probably not the best for DFS purposes, especially at Blaydes’ price.)

Jessica Andrade -250 (DK 9000) (FD $20) (Andrade just overmatches Calvillo, probably a clean decision win for Andrade, not my favourite fight of the night. I will most likely Fade it.)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 7 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

UFC Vegas 37.

SMITH V SPANN

I hope you were able to do well off of the last article, I saw some good success in the chat even with the underdog pick falling off the card, let’s hope for more success again tonight. Tonight, we have a slate that starts at 4:00 PM EST and has 14 action-packed fights for our newcomer stacked card! So let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM EST

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights but this fight is not between two high output fighters. I will not be branching away from the Main Event for my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 37 Smith vs Spann.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Joseph Maness (+175) (DK 7000) (FD $11) vs. Tony Gravely (-210) (DK 9200) (FD $19).

This was a fight that was supposed to happen in April of this year and on paper, it seemed very even if I had to pick I would’ve given Maness the edge then. Following Maness pulling out of the fight, Gravely put together an impressive second-round win over Anthony Birchak. I don’t think Birchak is at the same level as Gravely and Maness so for the needle to move so much on him even though we knew he was the better fighter in the short notice matchup doesn’t make too much sense to me. Maness has a longer reach and a larger frame while also being able to keep the fight on the feet with an 88% takedown defence rating. Maness’ UFC stats are unfairly off weight due to his first UFC fight against Johnny Munoz, where Maness basically defended takedowns the whole fight. Gravely’s game is very dependent on his takedowns and wrestling, if Maness is able to neutralize that and keep Gravely he can be very successful tonight.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Joseph Maness (+175) (DK 7000) (FD $11). THIRD ROUND TKO

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Ion Cutelaba (-150) (DK 9000) (FD $19) vs. Devon Clark (+125) (DK 7200) (FD $12).

Clark gets finished all the time, including an embarrassing loss in his last fight against the main eventer on this card Anthony Smith. I really don’t think Clark will be able to handle the early pressure that Cutelaba is going to put on him. We’ve seen Cutelaba end fights early, such as the fight against Roundtree and my only concern for Cutelaba going into this matchup is his gas tank. If he’s able to finish the job very quickly (which he is more than capable of doing) he will not even have to worry about his tank. On the feet, the number that stands out to me the most is the SLpM difference, Cutelaba has a nearly +2 SLpM difference over Clark and if Clark gets caught clean or gets behind early he may have a really rough go tonight against Cutelaba.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Ion Cutelaba (-150) (DK 9000) (FD $19) FIRST ROUND TKO (possible SECOND ROUND TKO).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Arman Tsarukyan (-800) (DK 9600) (FD $23) vs. Christos Giagos (+550) (DK 6600) (FD $8).

I’ve been high on Tsarukyan for a very long time and he’s proven me right time and time again. The Armenian fighter has had one loss since 2015 and it came in his first UFC fight against the Khabib protege, Islam Makachev. Not only is there no shame in a loss against him but he was able to take Makachev to a decision, a very impressive feat. Especially considering that he produced a good account of himself and he was able to do what nobody was able to do previously and take Makachev to the ground. Tsarukyan holds essentially every stat advantage when it comes to competition inside the UFC, he strikes more than Giagos, absorbs less, is better at securing takedowns and defends takedowns at a higher clip. Tsarukyan also holds advantages in every department whether it be cleaner striking technique (more accurate and better timing too), a stronger takedown game and a much more advanced Jiu-Jitsu pedigree. Bottom line is, when Islam Makachev has trouble taking someone down, Giagos will have serious trouble taking them down. Giagos also has a serious issue with his gas tank. If for some reason this fight does make it to the third round Giagos is going to be in serious trouble. Because of all of that, I will be siding with the Tiger Muy Thai fighter in this matchup, Arman Tsarukyan.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Arman Tsarukyan (-800) (DK 9600) (FD $23) SECOND ROUND TKO (UNANIMOUS DECISION).

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Anthony Smith (5 ROUNDER) -170 (DK 9100) (FD $21)

Erin Blanchfield -350 (DK 9400) (FD $22)

Montel Jackson -600 (DK 9500) (FD $22)

Zhu Rong -300 (DK 7600) (FD $21) (Brandon Jenkins RISKY GPP for FanDuel, I would prioritize Rong for DK due to a misprice)

Joaquin Buckley -200 (DK 9300) (FD $20) (Antonio Arroyo GPP works but its risky)

Hannah Goldy +100 (DK 7700) (FD $13) (Fade)

Gustavo Lopez GPP +110 (DK 7800) (FD $12) (Alateng Heili works too)

Mandy Bohm +100 (DK 8000) (FD $15) (Ariane Lipski works too, would fade overall)

Carlston Harris GPP +100 (DK 7300) (FD $14) (People are sleeping on Harris but his opponent Kasanganay has some talent)

Pannie Kianzad GPP +110 (DK 7500) (FD $13)

Tafon Nchukwi -125 (DK 8800) (FD $17)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 5 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

UFC Vegas 36.

BRUNSON V TILL

I hope you were able to do well off of last week’s article, I saw some good success in the chat from more of those nice underdog picks, let’s hope for more success again tonight. Tonight, we have a slate that starts at 1:30 PM EST and has 10 action-packed fights for our United Kingdom stacked card! So let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 1:30 PM EST

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights but this fight is not between two high output fighters. I will not be branching away from the Main Event for my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. My Main Event target will not be a top play. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 36 Brunson vs Till.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Marcelo Rojo (+130) (DK 7600) (FD $12) vs. Jonathan Martinez (-160) (DK 8600) (FD $18).

This line has significantly tightened since I first saw the fight on the card and I can definitely see why. Anyone who has watched Rojo’s journey to the UFC and his first fight against Jourdain would know why the UFC is investing in him so much. Rojo has insanely high volume as we saw in the Jourdain fight and has the tank to keep it up. My only concern with Rojo is that he is liable to take in as much damage as he inflicts on his opponent. He is a true brawler. In the same way, Martinez also takes a lot of damage and once he lets his opponents get in rage he has trouble reclaiming that distance. In terms of physical attributes, both fighters are about even in height and reach but it did come out today that Martinez tipped the scale a few pounds over the limit so double-check that the fight will still be good to go on fight night. If it does continue at a catchweight, I will definitely be leaning on Rojo in this card

MY UFC DFS PICK: Marcelo Rojo (+130) (DK 7600) (FD $12). SECOND ROUND TKO

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Charles Jourdain (-188) (DK 8900) (FD $20) vs. Julian Erosa (+162) (DK 7300) (FD $10).

It’s hard for me to stray too far away from Jourdain on this card. As we saw in his last fight against Rojo, he was able to fight back from the early adversity to secure the third-round ko finish. Jourdain is a much faster and heavier striker than Erosa who was quickly pieced up on the feet by his last opponent Seung Woo Choi. Erosa is not the most durable fighter and has been cracked on multiple occasions. Made even worse with the fact that Jourdain is a versatile striker who can damage Erosa with strikes to the head, or kicks to the leg/body. Erosa and Jourdain are both heavy strikers so don’t expect this fight to transition to the ground but I will be taking Jourdain in this one and I expect it to be a brawl

MY UFC DFS PICK: Charles Jourdain (-188) (DK 8900) (FD $20) SECOND ROUND TKO.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Tom Aspinall (-250) (DK 9000) (FD $22) vs. Sergey Spivak (+200) (DK 7200) (FD $9).

Usually, I like to play Spivak as he is an often underrated heavyweight but in this matchup, he is way out of his league. Tom Aspinall is one of the fastest rising heavyweight prospects in the UFC and holds many tactical advantages over Spivak. For example, Aspinall has the footwork and movement of a welterweight with incredible hand speed and power. We saw these on display in his win against Arlovski as well as the ones over Collier and Baudot. More importantly, Aspinall is also a BJJ Black Belt who showed off his submission skills as he ended the Arlovski fight by RNC. This fight seems like a mismatch and I’m all in on Aspinall tonight. (He also likes to put his opponents away very early)

MY UFC DFS PICK: Tom Aspinall (-250) (DK 9000) (FD $23) FIRST ROUND TKO (FIRST ROUND SUBMISSION).

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Darren Till (5 ROUNDER) -188 (DK 8800) (FD $21)

Alex Morono -138 (DK 8700) (FD $17)

Modestas Bukauskas -160 (DK 8500) (FD $17) (Khalil Roundtree works too)

Paddy Pimblett -160 (DK 8300) (FD $18)

Molly McCann -110 (DK 8000) (FD $15)

Jack Shore -700 (DK 9100) (FD $23)

Dalcha Lungiambula GPP +130 (DK 7800) (FD $11) (Barriault works too)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 5 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

UFC Vegas 35.

BARBOZA VS CHIKADZE

I hope you were able to do well off of the last weeks article, I saw some good success in the chat from those nice underdog picks, let’s hope for more success again tonight. Tonight, we have a slate that starts at 7:00 PM EST and has 12 action-packed fights and the finale of the Return of the Ultimate Fighter! So let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 7:00 PM EST

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights but this fight is not between two high output fighters. I will not be branching away from the Main Event for my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. My Main Event target will not be a top play. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 35 Barboza Chikadze.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Abdul Razak Alhassan (+200) (DK 7300) (FD $11) vs. Alessio Di Chirico (-250) (DK 8900) (FD $19).

This matchup is interesting but I think the line is way off. Having watched both these fighters, it’s clear that both favour the stand-up game as we have seen countless times throughout Alhassan’s career and more recently with Di Chirico with his flash KO over Joaquin Buckley which completely derailed that hype train (Both fighters have a similar SLpM with Alhassan at 3.71 and Di Chirico at 3.30). Both fighters had fights scheduled for this week but had their opponents cancel, leading to the current matchup in front us of. The only thing I really favour Di Chirico in is strength of schedule, but it’s not to say that Alhassan has not fought some absolute brawlers like Niko Price (who he beat) and Khaos Williams. Alhassan’s main weapon is his power punching and just as Di Chirico was able to catch Buckley to end his three-fight losing streak, Alhassan will be able to do the same tonight to end his three-fight losing streak.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Abdul Razak Alhassan (+200) (DK 7300) (FD $11). FIRST ROUND TKO (Possible SECOND ROUND KO)

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Andre Petroski (-600) (DK 9200) (FD $22) vs. Micheal Gillmore (+450) (DK 7000) (FD $8).

For those who were following the Return of TUF series, they would recognize Andre from his first round sub over Aaron Phillips in episode 1. After losing to finalist, Bryan Battle in the semifinals, Petroski will still have the opportunity to kickstart a UFC career tonight against Micheal Gillmore. Gillmore was a late replacement for the injured Miles Hunsinger and subsequently lost to the other finalist Gilbert Urbina in the first round, also due to a submission. Having watched these fighters compete, it is clear to me that Petroski holds a decided and somewhat unfair advantage on the ground and I see Petroski taking control of this fight very quickly with another submission finish. Petroski also has respectable power so if the fight does stay on the feet, Gillmore is by no means safe.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Andre Petroski (-600) (DK 9200) (FD $22) SECOND ROUND SUBMISSION.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Makhmud Muradov (-800) (DK 9300) (FD $23) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+550) (DK 6900) (FD $8).

Ok so very simply put Meerschaert has zero ground game against talented strikers as we saw in his fight against Chimaev, despite it being very short it was clear that Meerschaerts fundamentals were all wrong and he was in big trouble. Tonight he’ll be facing someone who hasn’t lost since 2016 in Makhmud Muradov, someone who is definitely seen as one of the future stars of the division. Meerschaert’s recent losses have come against big names (we’re not counting that one against Sam Alvey from back in the day, that’s downright embarrassing) and that wont change tonight as Muradov is a big name but barring any crazy surprises he will continue in his role as the “gatekeeper” of the middleweight division. Stats wise it’s not even close. Muradov has 100% takedown defence while Meerschaert has 43% takedown accuracy and on the feet its an even bigger blowout. Muradov has a 5.32 SLpM to Meerschaert’s 3.31 and Meerschaert has a higher strike absorption rate with 3.60 SApM to Muradov’s 2.92 along with Muradov’s higher striking defense percentage (64% over 51%). All around Muradov is the better fighter and will end this fight within the distance.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Makhmud Muradov (-800) (DK 8800) (FD $23) FIRST ROUND TKO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Giga Chikadze (5 ROUNDER) +110 (DK 8000) (FD $18) (Barboza works too but I prefer Chikadze)

Bryan Battle -188 (DK 8600) (FD $17)

Ricky Turicos -163 (DK 8700) (FD $18)

Daniel Rodriguez +125 (DK 7700) (FD $15)

Wellington Turman -138 (DK 8400) (FD $16)

Dustin Jacoby -188 (DK 8800) (FD $19)

Guido Canetti RISKY GPP +225 (DK 7200) (FD $10) (Usually I wouldn’t give him much of a shot but Martinez came in way overweight)

JJ Aldrich -400 (DK 9100) (FD $21) (overall I would fade)

Jamall Emmers -160 (DK 8300) (FD $17) (Sabbatini GPP)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 4 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

UFC Vegas 34.

CANNONIER VS GASTELUM

I hope you were able to do well off of the last article two weeks ago, we got a nice break last week so let’s hope for more success again tonight. Tonight, we have a slate that starts at 7:00 PM EST and has 12 action-packed fights! So let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 7:00 PM EST

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights but this fight is not between two high output fighters. I will not be branching away from the Main Event for my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mention category. My Main Event target will not be a top play. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 34 Cannonier vs Gastelum.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Ignacio Bahamondes (+125) (DK 7800) (FD $12) vs. Roosevelt Roberts (-150) (DK 8400) (FD $18).

Bahamondes takes a lot of risks when fighting but as we saw in the Contender Series fight, it can have amazing outcomes. Bahamondes has very clean striking and transitions well between his combinations. In his last fight, my concern for Bahamondes was his weight and this time around he looked great on the scales. On the Roberts side of things, I can’t shake his “No Contest” loss to Kevin Croom in his last fight. He looked so bad, got caught in the standing guillotine early on and is facing off against another dangerous opponent with a good jiu-jitsu pedigree. Makdessi barely bit Bahamondes and I don’t think Roberts is as good as Makdessi.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Ignacio Bahamondes (+125) (DK 7800) (FD $12). SECOND ROUND TKO

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Brian Kelleher (-175) (DK 9000) (FD $21) vs. Domingo Pilarte (+150) (DK 7200) (FD $9).

Pilarte was looking like he could have a very strong UFC career until his last two fights. (The last one of which was in February 2020). Kelleher has a ton more experience than Pilarte and has beaten some of the best of the best, while Pilarte has some losses against opponents he really should have been losing to if he is going to compete with the likes of Brian Kelleher. Kelleher has great combos and despite the slight disadvantage in size he has nearly double the striking output of his opponent while also defending strikes at a higher percentage rate too (53% to 42%).

MY UFC DFS PICK: Brian Kelleher (-175) (DK 9000) (FD $21) FIRST ROUND TKO (possible SECOND ROUND SUBMISSION).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Trevin Jones (-138) (DK 8800) (FD $18) vs. Saidyokub Kakhramonov (+110) (DK 7400) (FD $12).

I’ve underestimated Jones one too many times and this time I’m not going to do that. After his comeback win that was turned into a No Contest and his underdog win against Mario Bautista in his last fight, I can see the UFC gave him an opponent that he should be able to handle with ease this time around. His opponent already has two losses coming into the UFC and hasn’t fought any high calibre opponents. Expect Jones to do some damage tonight, especially with his opponent taking the fight on short notice and coming in overweight!

MY UFC DFS PICK: Trevin Jones (-138) (DK 8800) (FD $18) FIRST ROUND TKO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTION:

(Not in order)

Jared Cannonier (5 ROUNDER) -150 (DK 8700) (FD $20) (Gastelum works too but I prefer Cannonier)

Ramiz Brahimaj -138 (DK 8500) (FD $17)

William Knight -175 (DK 9400) (FD $22)

Luis Saldana -125 (DK 8300) (FD $16)

Alejandro Pantoja (FOTN) -175 (DK 8900) (FD $19) (Royval Great GPP Play, this is the fight I am most looking forward to tonight!!)

Austin Hubbard -110 (DK 8000) (FD $16)

Mark O. Madsen -170 (DK 9100) (FD $20)

Josiane Nunes GPP +125 (DK 7600) (FD $11) (Bea Malecki works too but overall I would fade)

Chase Sherman -188 (DK 9200) (FD $23) (Porter is a risky GPP play, has power and no cardio. If Sherman avoids the early onslaught he can coast to a win)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 3 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

UFC 265.

GANE V LEWIS

I hope you were able to do well off of the last article, there were a few rough fights last week but let’s hope for more success again tonight. Tonight, we have a slate that starts at 6:00 PM EST and has 13 action-packed fights! So let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM EST

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights but this fight is not between two high output fighters. I will not be branching away from the Main Event for my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mention category. My Main Event target will not be a top play. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 265, Gane v Lewis.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Song Yadong (+100) (DK 8000) (FD $13) vs. Casey Kenney (-125) (DK 8200) (FD $18).

I’ve been impressed with Yadong’s career and even in his losses, he’s put up great performances where he’s taken his opponents to the woodshed. Kenney’s only hope in my mind is if he grapples the fight away into a boring decision. Yadong has the clear advantage on the ground in my mind, especially after watching Kenney’s fight against Dominick Cruz (Neither fighter looked good, Kenney looked much much worse). If Kenney stays on the feet with Yadong as he did with Cruz, Yadong will have all sorts of opportunities to capitalize on Kenney’s underdeveloped striking game.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Song Yadong (+100) (DK 8000) (FD $13). SECOND ROUND TKO

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Rafael Fiziev (-334) (DK 9300) (FD $22) vs. Bobby Green (+250) (DK 6900) (FD $8).

This fight truly has the makings of an absolute gong-show. That being said, it’s not hard to tell that Fiziev has a clear tactical advantage in both grappling and striking (kickboxing especially), not to mention that Fiziev is entering his prime while Bobby Green is falling out of his. Fiziev is also a very smart and tactical striker and will be able to handle whatever Green throws at him.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Rafael Fiziev (-334) (DK 9300) (FD $22) FIRST ROUND TKO (possible SECOND ROUND TKO).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Vincente Luque (-110) (DK 8500) (FD $15) vs. Michael Chiesa (-110) (DK 7700) (FD $15).

What a fantastic stylistic matchup! Here we have the classic striker vs grappler matchup. Chiesa will be looking for the takedown all night long and he’ll have a tough time finding the space with the tactical striking of Luque. Following Luque’s last win against Woodley, one more win could put him straight in the title conversation. Luque has a much more developed and well-rounded game (cardio and leg kicks included). Luque can definitely manage himself on the ground but is smart enough to know to keep it on the feet.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Vincente Luque (-110) (DK 8500) (FD $15) FIRST ROUND TKO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTION:

(Not in order)

Ciryl Gane (5 ROUNDER) -350 (DK 9400) (FD $23) (Lewis is very much playable, especially at his price on DraftKings)

Johnny Munoz -334 (DK 9100) (FD $22)

Miles Johns -210 (DK 8900) (FD $20)

Manel Kape -210 (DK 9000) (FD $20) (Ode Osbourne GPP)

Tecia Torres -150 (DK 8700) (FD $19)

Karolina Kowalkiewicz -138 (DK 8300) (FD $17)

Jose Aldo -125 (DK 8600) (FD $14) (Pedro Munhoz GPP)

Melissa Gatto -110 (DK 8800) (FD $14) (Steal on FanDuel)

Drako Rodriguez -110 (DK 8400) (FD $16)

Ed Herman +200 (DK 7000) (FD $10) (Menifield works too, I’m not a huge fan of Menifield’s fighting style though, and he gasses fast)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 3 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

UFC Vegas 33.

STRICKLAND V HALL

I hope you were able to do well off of the last article, there were a few rough judges decisions last week but let’s hope for more success again tonight. Tonight, we have a slate that starts at 6:00 PM EST and has 11 action-packed fights! So let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM EST

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights but this fight is not between two high output fighters. I will not be branching away from the Main Event for my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mention category. My Main Event target will not be a top play. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 33, Strickland vs Hall.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Collin Anglin (+125) (DK 7600) (FD $13) vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan (-150) (DK 8600) (FD $17).

Wow, so to start off we have two budding prospects out of the contender series. Both were able to impress Dana White enough to secure that contract and now they will be facing off against each other for their first fight in the organization. Anglin will have a distinct wrestling advantage, while Melsik showed off his powerful hands in his Contender Series fight. I think this a closer matchup than some of the fights on the card but personally with Anglin having such an advantage in the wrestling department from the fights I’ve seen, I don’t know how he is a dog.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Collin Anglin (+125) (DK 7600) (FD $13). UNANIMOUS DECISION

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Bryan Barberena (-275) (DK 9600) (FD $22) vs. Jason Witt (+225) (DK 6600) (FD $9).

So, in his last fight, Witt was knocked out by Semmelsberger rather quickly and it was a really really bad look, and although I know Witt will want a bounce back performance and will try to avoid getting KO’d so early this time. The fact of the matter is Barberena hits so much harder than Semi and Witt is in some serious trouble with this matchup. Witt’s only hope is going to be to try an make it a grapple fest but if he gets caught that could be the end of his night.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Bryan Barberena (-275) (DK 9600) (FD $22) FIRST ROUND TKO (possible SECOND ROUND TKO).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Rafa Garcia (-334) (DK 9500) (FD $23) vs. Chris Gruetzemacher (+250) (DK 6700) (FD $8).

Gruetzemacher is probably on his last legs with the UFC and he’s being fed to a hot prospect in Rafa Garcia to seal his fate. Gritz is not a UFC calibre fighter and will not be able to do to Garcia what Hapqarast was able to do to Garcia. Garcia is so versatile and poses a threat on the ground and on the feet that Gruetzemacher will not be able to keep up. (Ronnie Lawrence was going to be in this spot but his fight got cancelled)

MY UFC DFS PICK: Rafa Garcia (-334) (DK 9500) (FD $23) FIRST ROUND TKO (possible SECOND ROUND SUBMISSION).

UFC HONORABLE MENTION:

(Not in order)

Sean Strickland (5 ROUNDER) -200 (DK 9300) (FD $22)

Niklas Stolze -175 (DK 7000) (FD $20) (MUST PLAY ON DK)

Cheyanne Buys -170 (DK 8900) (FD $20)

Orion Cosce -170 (DK 8800) (FD $18)

Ashley Yoder -150 (DK 8400) (FD $17) (FADE)

Danny Chavez +100 (DK 8000) (FD $14)

Rani Yahya +100 (DK 7700) (FD $14)

Ryan Benoit -125 (DK 8300) (FD $15)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 2 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

UFC Vegas 32.

SANDHAGEN V DILLASHAW

I hope you were able to do well off of the last article, we had another banger and I saw some nice success all around, let’s hope for some more success again tonight. Tonight, we have a slate that starts at 4:00 PM EST and has 11 action-packed fights! So let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM EST

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights but this fight is not between two high output fighters. I will not be branching away from the Main Event for my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mention category. My Main Event target will not be a top play. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 32, Sandhagen v Dillashaw.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Punahele Soriano (-125) (DK 8200) (FD $15) vs. Brendan Allen (+100) (DK 8000) (FD $16).

Brendan looked decent in his last fight but I cant shake the version of Allen that I saw against Sean Strickland. In many ways, I see Soriano in a very similar way as I see Strickland… a powerful striker with killer accuracy. We have a classic grappler vs striker matchup here, and if Allen isn’t able to keep Soriano on the ground I don’t think he’ll be able to compete with Soriano and his crazy knockout power. Allen has a pretty ugly negative Strike Differential and his low fight IQ can leave him open to those big shots. I know the line had moved towards Allen after the line first opened but I have a lot of confidence in Soriano and I know he can dominate on the feet.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Punahele Soriano (-125) (DK 8200) (FD $15). FIRST-ROUND TKO.

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Jordan Williams (-175) (DK 8700) (FD $21) vs. Mickey Gall (+150) (DK 7500) (FD $9).

For those who were able to watch the Contender Series matchup between Williams and Gregory Rodrigues, you’ll know the kind of scary knockout power this kid possesses and considering he was able to do what he did to a guy like Rodrigues who recently dismantled Dusko Todorovic. Williams has a positive strike differential stemming from a high amount of strikes absorbed and an even higher amount of strikes landed. The same cannot be said for his opponent Mickey Gall. Gall hasn’t fought in over a year where he lost to Mike Perry and since his infamous fight against WWE Star CM Punk, Gall has gone 3-3 over a span of 5 years. For being a guy who is supposed to excel on the ground he has a lot of trouble getting his opponents there averaging less than one takedown per fight and a poor takedown percentage of 26% which is very drastically opposed to the takedown defense of Williams (college wrestler) which currently stands at 88% over four fights. Take the green striker in Williams, this is an excellent stylistic matchup for him.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Jordan Williams (-175) (DK 8700) (FD $21) SECOND ROUND TKO.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Adrian Yanez (-225) (DK 9000) (FD $20) vs. Randy Costa (+187) (DK 7200) (FD $9).

What an excellent matchup here. Even though I love Yanez here, take nothing away from the pedigree of Costa. Two huge prospects here and one will move on. I cant help but feel like these two will matchup again later down the line but in this matchup Yanez has a clear edge in striking speed, timing (excellent counter striker) and position. This is what separates the two boxers for me. Dont make any mistake this fight should be staying on the feet and both fighters have a similar strike differential of around +2. Together they have a combined 3 Performance of the Night Bonuses, 2 in 2 UFC fights for Yanez and 1 in 3 UFC fights for Costa, which is all to say that you should get ready for fireworks in this matchup! Of note Yanez will have to avoid the early barrages and leg kicks from Costa and considering that Costa does have a path to victory I don’t mind people taking Costa as a dog at all for DFS purposes considering the options available to us on this card.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Adrian Yanez (-225) (DK 9000) (FD $20) FIRST ROUND TKO (possible SECOND ROUND TKO).

UFC HONORABLE MENTION:

(Not in order)

Cory Sandhagen (5 ROUNDER) -188 (DK 8800) (FD $22)

Kyler Phillips -275 (DK 9200) (FD $22)

Darrick Minner -170 (DK 8600) (FD $19) (Elkins GPP)

Miranda Maverick -150 (DK 8400) (FD $18)

Ian Heinish -160 (DK 8500) (FD $22) (Imavov GPP)

Juilo Arce -210 (DK 9100) (FD $20)

Elise Reed RISKY GPP +275 (DK 6900) (FD $8) (Eubanks can definitely win but I don’t like her as a DFS play)

Diana Belbita -110 (DK 7900) (FD $14)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 2 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

UFC Vegas 31.

MAKACHEV V MOISES

I hope you were able to do well off of the last article, we had another banger and I saw some nice success all around, let’s hope for some more success again tonight. Tonight, we have a slate that starts at 7:00 PM EST and has 11 action-packed fights! So let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 7:00 PM EST

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights but this fight is not between two high output fighters. I will not be branching away from the Main Event for my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mention category. My Main Event target will not be a top play. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 31, Makachev v Moises.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Khalid Taha (-145) (DK 8300) (FD $17) vs. Sergey Morozov (+120) (DK 7900) (FD $14).

Khalid Taha is probably one of the most inconsistent fighters I’ve ever seen and his UFC tenure hasnt been the best. He’s gone 2-2 and had one of those wins taken away after a failed USADA test. Furthermore, he was absolutelty dominated in his last fight against Raoni Barcelos. On the other hand, Morozov was dominated by Umar Nurmagomedov in his last fight but despite coming in as the huge underdog, Morozov was able to defend Umar’s ground game for a round before eventually being submitted by him in the second. This is a much more favourable matchup for Morozov and I think that despite being the underdog, this is a much more even matchup for him. Taha also didnt look too great on the scales and considering that there are not a lot of decent underdog plays on this card I would recommend going with Morozov in your lines tonight.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Sergey Morozov (+120) (DK 7900) (FD $14). UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible THIRD ROUND TKO).

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Preston Parsons (+250) (DK 7400) (FD $10) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (-300) (DK 8800) (FD $20).

This fight is very similar to the O’Malley v Moutinho fight we saw last week where one guy was just way farther along the developmental path than the other. Although, I would say O’Malley is closer to the top of his game than D-Rod is there is no doubt in my mind that Rodriguez will be too much for Preston Parsons to handle. Parsons is coming in on short notice as D-ROb was supposed to have a fight with Abubakar Nurmagomedov this weekend until Nurmagomedov pulled out with an injury. So Rodriguez has a full camp and is the more well rounded and the more technical fighter. As with Moutinho, this fight could allow Parsons to get his foot in the door within the organization but he’s in big trouble for this matchup. Rodriguez should have this fight under control very early on and the numbers show as much with his 7.87 SLpM rate, which is just insanely high for any UFC fighter.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Daniel Rodriguez (-300) (DK 8800) (FD $20) SECOND ROUND TKO.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Jeremy Stephens (+180) (DK 7600) (FD $12) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (-220) (DK 8600) (FD $19).

As much as I don’t like Stephens there’s no doubt in my mind that he’s a talented fighter with knockout power BUT tonight against a rising Polish prospect in Mateuzs Gamrot, Stephens is in a lot of trouble. The former KSW Champion had a 17-0-0 record before entering the UFC and went 1-1 in the organization after a questionable decision loss to another rising prospect Guram Kutateladze in his promotional debut. Gamrot holds a decided advantage in the wrestling department and is able to work with Stephens on the feet. Stephens is also coming up a weight class to fight Gamrot and I dont feel as though Stephens will be able to find the holes in Gamrots game before the Polish prospect finds him. Furthermore, Stephens can be very reckless at times and with a fighter as well rounded as Gamrot he can definitely get punished. At the end of the day, get ready for a war between these two.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Mateuzs Gamrot (-220) (DK 8600) (FD $19) THIRD ROUND TKO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).

UFC HONORABLE MENTION:

(Not in order)

Islam Makachev (5 ROUNDER) -720 (DK 9400) (FD $23)

Meisha Tate -145 (DK 8200) (FD $13)

Rodolfo Viera -225 (DK 8700) (FD $19)

Gabriel Benitez -165 (DK 8500) (FD $18)

Amanda Lemos -550 (DK 9300) (FD $22)

Miles Johns -185 (DK 8400) (FD $18)

Fransisco Figueredo -300 (DK 8900) (FD $20) (Malcolm Gordon GPP)

Rogerio De Nascimento -350 (DK 9000) (FD $21)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 2 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

UFC 264.

POIRIER V MCGREGOR 3

WOW, we have finally made it! This is it, the BIG TRILOGY FIGHT, the biggest card of the year. Let’s work together and get some serious green tonight everyone! Looking forward to helping everyone out with their lines and sharing my thoughts below. Tonight, we have a slate that starts at 6:15 PM EST and has 13 action-packed fights! So let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 6:15 PM EST

Exposure to the main event is HIGHLY recommended. DFS production in these fights will be high as they are five-round fights, this fight is between two high output fighters. I will not be branching away from the Main Event for any lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mention category. My Main Event target will not be a top play. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 264, Poirier v McGregor 3.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Illia Topuria (-220) (DK 9100) (FD $22) vs. Ryan Hall (+180) (DK 7100) (FD $9).

Don’t get me wrong, Topuria is an undefeated prospect and a rising star in the UFC but we are also talking about Ryan Hall here. These odds honestly don’t make much sense to me. Ryan is such a wild card and here’s why: he hasn’t fought in over a year because ranked opponents never wanted to fight him and his fights kept falling through. As a result, Hall has not seen action in the cage in a while but do not get it twisted Hall’s ground game (and leg snatching game) is one of the best in the UFC and if he’s able to get Topuria down, he’ll be in his world. The benefit Topuria has is that he’s much more well-rounded than Hall and if the fight stays on the feet Hall is out of his element but despite that Hall is pretty well versed in defending strikes and has unique methods to transition to the ground, like the Iminari roll. Furthermore, it’s a fact that Topuria has credentials in BJJ as well, but in this matchup, it’s truly incomparable, Hall is the better BJJ practitioner from what I’ve seen. Topuria is definitely playable tonight as well but for as cheap as he is, I would recommend going with Hall in some lines as there is a clear path to victory for him tonight.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Ryan Hall (+180) (DK 7100) (FD $9). SECOND ROUND SUBMISSION.

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Kris Moutinho (+600) (DK 6700) (FD $8) vs. Sean O’Malley (-1000) (DK 9500) (FD $23).

Moutinho is coming in as a late replacement for Louis Smolka against a rising prospect in the UFC Sugar Sean O’Malley. O’Malley has some weaknesses but in order to exploit them you really need to be on the same level as him, Moutinho is not. O’Malley simply has too many weapons in his arsenal and holds a decided skill advantage over his opponent. Moutinho should be commended for making it into the UFC but there are levels to this game and this is a jump up in competition that he won’t realize til he’s in the cage. This is why O’Malley is the biggest favourite on the card. Anything can happen but in all reality, O’Malley should really make quick work of the competition based on the fights I have seen from him.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Sean O’Malley (-1000) (DK 9500) (FD $23) FIRST ROUND TKO (possible SECOND ROUND TKO).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Stephen Thompson (-170) (DK 8500) (FD $18) vs.Gilbert Burns (+140) (DK 7700) (FD $13).

This matchup is between two former title challengers and depending on who wins, two potential future title challengers. Stephen Thompson is one of, if not the best Karate Practitioners in the UFC, whereas Gilbert Burns is one of the best Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in the UFC… this is all to say that stylistically, this is a very intriguing matchup. I really have to give Thompson the edge, not just because of his advancements over Burns on the feet but also his strong footwork and fight IQ in the cage, Stephen Thompson is able to keep the right distance to avoid Burns’ monster kicks and the takedowns and when his opponents do shoot, he’s able to stuff he takedowns at a 78% rate (hasn’t been taken down since 2017 by Woodley). I really like what I’ve seen from Thompson after his last two fights and I believe he can control the cage with Burns and dictate where the fight ends up

MY UFC DFS PICK: Stephen Thompson (-170) (DK 8500) (FD $18) UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND ROUND TKO).

UFC HONORABLE MENTION:

(Not in order)

Dustin Poirier (5 ROUNDER) -125 (DK 8100) (FD $20) (McGregor works too)

Tai Tuivasa -138 (DK 8400) (FD $17)

Yana Kunitskaya -110 (DK 7900) (FD $13) (Opponent missed weight, huge play here, I’m a little suspect about the DFS aspect but for the price, go for it)

Max Griffin -188 (DK 9300) (FD $21)

Niko Price +150 (DK 7300) (FD $14) (Periera works too, my personal fight of the night)

Dricus Du Plessis -125 (DK 8200) (FD $15)

Jennifer Maia -200 (DK 8800) (FD $20)

Alen Amedovski -138 (DK 9000) (FD $18) (Hu Yaozong GPP)

Omari Akhmedov GPP +140 (DK 7600) (FD $10)

Zhalgas Zhumagulov -334 (DK 9300) (FD $22)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 6 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!