Fight

UFC 269.

OLIVEIRA V POIRIER

We’re back with our first set of title fights in over a month! Today’s slate will start at 6:00 PM ET. This is a much nicer return to normal compared to the few afternoon cards we have been getting as of late and we’ll be able to see two champions defend their belts! Will we have a new champion by tomorrow night? Read more below to find out my take! Tonight there will be 14 fights that will take us well into the night! Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started

SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights. I will be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 269 Oliveira vs Poirier.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Dan Ige (+137) (DK 7400) (FD $11) vs. Josh Emmett (-163) (DK 8800) (FD $19).

At first look, I wouldn’t blame anyone for favouring Josh Emmett in this matchup but when I dig deeper I see clear holes in Emmett’s game which pushes a lot of value to the side of Dan Ige (especially at his price). Both have similar strike differentials and similar grappling stats but Emmett absorbs a lot more damage and has been far more inactive than his opponent not having fought in over a year with only one fight in over two years. That’s some dangerously bad inactivity. Injuries have derailed a real contender in Josh Emmett. Ige is coming off a tough loss to Korean Zombie where he held a good account of himself and has performed very well before that. He has top-level wrestling and active, precision striking with crazy power. The odds have been trending towards Ige and with a lot of solid under-dog plays on this card, I would definitely have my eye on Ige tonight. Ige will need to start strong to have a good fight, he cannot afford to let Emmett heat up.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Dan Ige (+137) (DK 7400) (FD $11). THIRD-ROUND TKO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Amanda Nunes (-1000) (DK 9500) (FD $23) vs. Julianna Pena (+600) (DK 6500) (FD $12).

C’mon… like c’mon, this is not close at all. I always abide by the mantra that anything can happen in UFC (memories of Vieira losing to Fluffy Hernandez) but this is one fight where the stronger fighter has such an edge that it’s feasibly insurmountable for their opponent. Nunes has absolutely TORE UP the Bantamweight and Featherweight division and Pena has simply not been the same since her injury, which is unfortunate because she had shown a lot of promise on the Ultimate Fighter. Unfortunately for Pena, she’s up against a generational fighter in Nunes. The odds in this matchup are more than fair which is surprising considering how lopsided they are but I simply cannot fathom a way that Nunes doesn’t win. Her power is unmatched, her strike differential is insane by itself and it looks even better compared to Pena’s and respectfully Pena cannot compete with Nunes in the BJJ department like not even close, that’s a purple belt fighting a veteran black belt… just no chance for Pena to survive on the ground. I can appreciate Pena’s optimism but if there are any Nunes haters left they will be silenced yet again on Saturday night. (5 ROUND FIGHT)

MY UFC DFS PICK: Amanda Nunes (-1000) (DK 9500) (FD $23) FIRST-ROUND TKO.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Sean O’Malley (-334) (DK 9100) (FD $20) vs. Raulian Paiva (+250) (DK 7100) (FD $9).

As we have seen O’Malley is an insanely high volume striker which is gold for DFS. We have also seen that if he is challenged he can find himself in some trouble. O’Malley actually spent more of the press conference going after Garbrandt than his real opponent. Paiva’s problem is that he absorbs too much damage which can easily accumulate against a fighter like O’Malley who is currently averaging 8.25 SLpM just an insane fight pace over 15 minutes. Although Paiva will be more challenging than O’Malley’s last opponent, this should be a very straightforward matchup for O’Malley where his high volume simply overwhelms Paiva. Lock in the Sugar Show if you’re looking for that big boom or bust spot on tonight’s card!

MY UFC DFS PICK: Sean O’Malley (-334) (DK 9100) (FD $20) FIRST-ROUND TKO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Dustin Poirier (5 ROUNDER) -138 (DK 8600) (FD $21) (Charles Oliveira works too)

Santiago Ponzinibbio -125 (DK 8200) (FD $16)

Kai Kara-France GPP +110 (DK 7500) (FD $12) (Garbrandt is my least favourite fighter, he’s got a very rudimentary striking style and really bad defence, his head movement is the only thing that stops him from getting knocked out in every fight)

Dominick Cruz -110 (DK 8100) (FD $15)

Tai Tuivasa -110 (DK 8300) (FD $16) (Big Knockout Upside in this fight)

Bruno Silva -350 (DK 9400) (FD $22)

Andre Muniz -150 (DK 8500) (FD $18) (Eryk Anders can work for DFS purposes but my main concern with him is the gas tank, he can deplete his energy way too quickly at times, especially with the grapple heavy game of Andre Muniz [3 of last 4 wins came by submission])

Erin Blanchfield GPP +110 (DK 7800) (FD $14) (Miranda Maverick works too but I see great value on the Blanchfield side of this fight)

Ryan Hall -200 (DK 8900) (FD $20) (He’ll probably win with some crazy submission technique too)

Randy Costa -188 (DK 9000) (FD $20) (by KO)

Gillian Robertson -400 (DK 9300) (FD $22) (I don’t have Cachoeira for DFS purposes because of the knockout threat but I am leaning towards Robertson in this matchup. Overall, I would fade this matchup)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 2 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!

UFC Vegas 44.

FONT V ALDO

We’re back after a one-week break following a steady stream of big UFC fights! Today’s slate will start at 6:30 PM ET. This is a much nicer return to normal compared to the few afternoon cards we have been getting as of late. Tonight there will be 14 fights that will take us well into the night! Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started

SLATE STARTS AT 6:30 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights. I will be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 43 Font vs Aldo.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Jeremiah Wells (+150) (DK 7100) (FD $11) vs. Jake Matthews (-175) (DK 9100) (FD $20).

This is a risky play but one that I see a lot of value in as he is in a very winnable fight (that is to say, Wells has a clear path to victory). To say Wells wasn’t given much of a look before his first UFC fight is an understatement. Coming in against a seasoned vet like Warlley Alves, it looked like a matchup from hell for him and as a +190 dog. But, he came out and starched Alves in the second round after controlling Alves for much of the first round. Because he’s only had one UFC fight we don’t have a lot of data to go over for him but he has never been finished and has enough pop in his shots to put UFC calibre opponents out. Matthews’ stats really aren’t anything special and that’s the best way to describe Matthews’ form as of late. He’s been an average fighter, going 3-2 in his five on in and is coming in without a finish in three years. This matchup will be a test for Wells and despite the odds reflecting that he’s in a tough spot, he has the skillset to get this one done.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Jeremiah Wells +150) (DK 7100) (FD $11). THIRD-ROUND TKO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Cheyanne Vlismas [listed as Buys on FD] (-175) (DK 9000) (FD $20) vs. Mallory Martin (+150) (DK 7200) (FD $10).

Cheyanne is coming off a performance of the night knockout over Gloria de Paula a few months ago while her opponent Mallory Martin has lost two of her last three and will most likely be fighting for her job tonight. Vlismas is coming into this matchup on short notice as Martin was set to face off against someone who has beaten Cheyanne before (albeit in a very cheap way that lacked a competitive fighting spirit) and Martin would most likely have been dominated in grappling exchanges if that match would have gone ahead. Instead, Vlismas is coming into this one as a fresh fighter with a well-rounded game and serious firepower. Whereas, Martin has very one-dimensional striking (gets hit more than she hits her opponents, by a lot, over -1.5 StrikeDifferential) and frankly if the fight transitions to the ground she won’t stand much of a chance against moderate level jiu-jitsu talent like Vlismas. This fight carries a big risk of a decision which is why it is being listed as a Cash-Game play but Cheyanne has a very straightforward path to victory on the ground and on the feet.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Cheyanne Vlismas [listed as Buys on FD] (-175) (DK 9000) (FD $20) UNANIMOUS DECISION.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Manel Kape (-250) (DK 9400) (FD $22) vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov (+200) (DK 6800) (FD $8).

Both of these fighters have had similar roads in their UFC careers as both have had three fights under their belts, dropped the first two and have won their most recent fight, quite convincingly too. Strangely enough, their stat lines are very similar as well over their UFC careers. However, for Zhumagulov, other than his latest fight where he submitted his opponent, he has been in seven straight decisions. On the other side of this fight, we have Manel Kape, who the UFC has been high on for a while now and it looks as though their future star has just paid off after the dominance shown in his last fight. However, tonight, Kape will have a true test in Zhumagulov. It is worth noting though, that Kape has more power and has quicker speed in both his hands and his legs. If this fight stays on the feet I’m very comfortable siding with Kape in this matchup.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Manel Kape (-250) (DK 9400) (FD $22) FIRST-ROUND TKO

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Jose Aldo (5 ROUNDER) +125 (DK 7800) (FD $16) (Rob Font works too)

Brad Riddell +100 (DK 7900) (FD $15)

Jimmy Crute -170 (DK 9200) (FD $21) (Hill works as a DFS Value Play but Crute will most likely win)

Leonardo Santos -188 (DK 8800) (FD $20)

Brendan Allen -350 (DK 9600) (FD $23)

Darian Weeks (GPP) +110 (DK 7800) (FD $14)

William Knight (GPP) +125 (DK 7500) (FD $13)

Claudio Puelles -125 (DK 8000) (FD $16) (Good value on DraftKings)

Louis Smolka -150 (DK 8500) (FD $17)

Alex Morono -225 (DK 9500) (FD $22)

Dusko Todorovic -163 (DK 8600) (FD $18)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 2 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest! (alternate: Cheyanne Vlismas)

UFC Vegas 43.

TATE V VIEIRA

Wow! We are finally back in Vegas following two massive numbered cards back-to-back! Today’s slate will start at 3:00 PM ET. This is a big change but we will have 12 fights that will take us well into the afternoon and tonight one of my favourite fighters is making his UFC Debut as an underdog! Read more below!

SLATE STARTS AT 3:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights. I will be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 43 Tate vs Vieira.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Terrance Mckinney (-110) (DK 8400) (FD $15) vs. Fares Ziam (-110) (DK 7800) (FD $16).

I don’t get it, and according to his Twitter neither does Terrance. Thankfully he’s been bet back up to even money but he is priced as an underdog for FanDuel DFS. It completely boggles my mind, to be honest. Mckinney first burst onto the scene last year with a seven-second knockout win over Matt Frevola where a two-punch combo sat Frevola down while Mckinney swooped in for the finish. Unfortunately for Mckinney, he would injure himself in the post-fight celebration as he tweaked his knee after jumping back in the octagon off the cage. But now he’s back and ready to take on Frenchmen Fares Ziam. Ziam is coming into this fight with a 2-1 UFC record, every fight of which went to the judges’ scorecards including two not-so-convincing wins and a very convincing loss to Don Madge who is no longer a UFC fighter. All these fights essentially ended up turning into grappling bouts. Despite, Mckinney’s Contender Series loss. He is coming into this fight on a four-fight win streak with ALL FOUR coming by first-round knockout. Mckinney has dynamite in his hands and in his feet and I think it’ll be too much for Ziam to handle in tonight’s matchup. If your book still has him as an underdog I’d recommend grabbing his line at that price. (Excellent parlay play as well)

MY UFC DFS PICK: Terrance Mckinney (-110) (DK 8400) (FD $15). FIRST-ROUND TKO

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Luana Pinheiro (-450) (DK 9300) (FD $23) vs. Sam Hughes (+350) (DK 6900) (FD $8).

Pinheiro is coming in off an unfortunate end to her last fight despite the fact that she won the fight, her opponent, the recently released Randa Markos, hit her with an illegal kick when Pinheiro was clearly winning the fight. In tonight’s matchup, she’s paired up against Sam Hughes. Out of her three UFC fights (including tonight), Hughes has come into two of them on short notice (also including tonight). Personally, I think that’s the only thing really keeping her in the promotion at this point. Hughes currently holds a 5-3 record and despite having a cool nickname she was soundly defeated in both of those fights. This fight against Pinheiro will be no different. In fact, it might be worse for Hughes. Pinheiro is a lethal striker who can also wear her opponents down with relentless takedown attempts as we saw in her fight against Randa Markos. Interestingly enough, she fought on the same Dana White Contender Series episode as Natan Levy who we will discuss in more detail later on in the article, as her 2:48 second knockout was enough to secure her the contract that night. In this matchup, Pinheiro is going to put tremendous pressure on Hughes early and Hughes’ lacklustre defence is going to cost her as Pinheiro has multiple ways in which she can finish this fight.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Luana Pinheiro (-450) (DK 9300) (FD $23) FIRST ROUND TKO (possible FIRST ROUND SUBMISSION).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Adrian Yanez (-334) (DK 9100) (FD $22) vs. Davey Grant (+250) (DK 7100) (FD $9).

This fight has fight of the night written all over it. In their last three UFC fights for both of these fighters, they are coming off of three straight performance bonuses. That’s even more impressive considering the point Grant is at in his career. Yanez on the other hand is on the rise. Having won his last 7 fights, most of which came by vicious knockout. Yanez’s hand speed is not something you want to find yourself on the wrong side of. Yanez is an excellent counter puncher and power puncher and is coming in with a significant statistical advantage over Grant in SLpM. (which includes historical stats from Grant when he was younger and faster with his hands) One could argue that Grant’s only path to victory is through bringing the fight to the ground but it’s easier said than done as Yanez currently holds a 100% takedown defence rate through his four-fight UFC career. On the feet, Yanez will run the show.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Adrian Yanez (-334) (DK 9100) (FD $22) SECOND ROUND TKO

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Meisha Tate (5 ROUNDER) -110 (DK 8300) (FD $17)

Natan Levy +100 (DK 8500) (FD $13) (Natan Levy is far and away my favourite UFC fighter and he is making his debut tonight after a strong performance in the Dana White Contender Series just over one year ago. If it were not for the fact that he is my favourite he could have very well ended up as the Value Target in this article. Levy came into his DWCS fight as a short-notice replacement [he was preparing for an LFA fight at the time, which he would later pull out of after receiving the contract] and was the smaller fighter[-2 inches in height, -3 inches in reach]. Levy proceeded to dominate the fight and ended it with a third-round submission. Despite being primarily a Karate practitioner, it was a huge shock to see him dominate on the ground in that matchup the way he did. It is clear that Natan has not fought anyone at the level of Rafa Garcia yet and tonight’s fight will be a true test for him. But, Levy’s fight IQ, striking arsenal. endurance and grappling ability give me all the confidence in the world that he will take care of business here. Garcia was very disappointing in his last matchup against Chris Greutzmacher after Garcia gassed out following the first round. Garcia has yet to find a win in the UFC and despite coming into tonight as the favourite I don’t think he’ll be able to compete with Levy. I am extremely biased on this pick as I mentioned he is my favourite but from a raw assessment of skill, I find it mind-boggling that we are getting Levy at an underdog price. I will be adding Levy into my lines tonight and at his price, I see huge upside potential.)

Rani Yahya -110 (DK 8000) (FD $14)

Sean Brady -175 (DK 8900) (FD $19)

Pat Sabatini -125 (DK 8700) (FD $18) (Tucker Lutz works as a DFS play, very risky however since all his UFC wins have come by decision)

Lupita Godinez -163 (DK 8800) (FD $20)

Cody Durden -160 (DK 8600) (FD $21) (Cheap on DraftKings)

Sean Soriano -275 (DK 9000) (FD $21)

Taila Santos -350 (DK 9200) (FD $22) (Joanne Wood works as a DFS Play)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 2 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

UFC Vegas 42.

HOLLOWAY V RODRIGUEZ

Wow! We are finally back in Vegas following two massive numbered cards back-to-back! Today’s slate will start at 1:00 PM ET. This is a big change but we will have 11 fights that will take us well into the afternoon and we have one of the best strikers in the UFC in the main event Max “Blessed” Holloway!

SLATE STARTS AT 1:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights. I will be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 42 Holloway vs Rodriguez

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Kennedy Nzechukwu (+100) (DK 7900) (FD $15) vs. Da Un Jung (-125) (DK 8300) (FD $16).

We have two absolute bangers starting off our Vegas 42 Card! Both of these guys pack tons of power in their punches. Nzechukwu is entering into his third fight of 2021 with his other two fights ending in highlight reel knockouts. His opponent Da Un Jung is on a 13 fight win streak with 9 of the 13 ending by KO/TKO. Nzechukwu is extremley durable as we saw in his fight against Carlos Ulberg and he has been able to stifle most takedown attempts that he’s been faced with. On top of that, he holds a clear edge over Jung in the striking volume department. While lately, Jung has racked up a couple fights that have gone to a decision and he holds a draw against Sam Alvey which is not the greatest look. Out of Alvey’s last seven fights, the fight against Jung was his only fight that didnt end in a loss. Other than that, the two opponents that Jung finished in the UFC have been cut by the promotion so I am leaning towards Nzechukwu in this stand and bang affair.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Kennedy Nzechukwu (+100) (DK 8300) (FD $15). SECOND ROUND TKO

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Sean Woodson (-334) (DK 9200) (FD $21) vs. Collin Anglin (+250) (DK 7000) (FD $10).

In this matchup, I think we have a clear example of a UFC fighter vs someone who isnt quite at the UFC level. Woodson is not in the top ranks of the UFC but he has been able to hold his own against UFC competition. Both of these fighters made it into the UFC through the Contender Series and since their appearance Woodson has had three appearances (2 Wins, 1 Loss) and Anglin has had one appearance (1 Loss and it wasnt close). I haven’t seen enough from Anglin, especially after his last fight whereas Woodson has proven that he can rise to the occasion against tough competition. Collin will most likely look for the takedown and from his past fights, Woodson should be able to fend off the takedown attempts. Statistically, they are very close on the feet but if I have to give one fighter the edge it would be Woodson, Anglin’s chin could also cause some problems. (ie his last fight) Both these fighters have decent gas tanks but Woodson should be able to take care of Anglin early on in the fight.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Sean Woodson (-334) (DK 9200) (FD $21) FIRST ROUND TKO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Ben Rothwell (-160) (DK 8600) (FD $18) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (+130) (DK 7600) (FD $13).

This matchup seems like a punishment for Lima based on how he fought in his last fight. He basically layed on top of his opponent for over 14 minutes of a 15-minute fight. Rothwell has crazy power as we saw in his last fight against Chris Barnett and he has respectable takedown defense which should be de Lima’s only path to victory in this matchup. If this fight stays on the feet Lima doesn’t stand much of a chance (Rothwell is has enough skill and a strong enough chin to avoid or absorb Lima’s strikes) Lima has been extremley inconsistent in his career while Rothwell is having a resurgence in his career following a three fight skid back in 2018-19 (all close fights against top competition at that time, which can be said for many of Rothwell’s losses). Both of these fighters have extensive UFC resumes and at this point in their careers Rothwell is more consistent, has higher volume and is a more cerebral fighter than de Lima. With the high knockout upside, I’ll definitely be leaning towards Rothwell in this matchup.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Ben Rothwell (-160) (DK 8600) (FD $18) SECOND ROUND TKO

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Max Holloway (5 ROUNDER) -700 (DK 9500) (FD $23)

Miguel Baeza -150 (DK 8500) (FD $18) (Williams works as a DFS Value Play)

Andrea Lee +110 (DK 9000) (FD $15)

Felicia Spencer -400 (DK 9100) (FD $21)

Cortney Casey -250 (DK 8800) (FD $20) (Was going to have Liana Jojua as a GPP play until she missed weight, still works for DFS but tread with caution)

Thiago Moises -250 (DK 9000) (FD $20)

Marc Diakises -188 (DK 8700) (FD $19) (Alves works as a DFS Value Play but he missed weight)

Song Yadong -138 (DK 8400) (FD $17) (Arce works as a DFS Value Play)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 3 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

UFC 268.

USMAN v COVINGTON 2

Wow! We are finally back in NYC for a massive pay-per-view card! Today’s slate will start at 6:00 PM ET. This is a big change but we will have 14 fights that will take us well into the afternoon and we have some BANGERS coming up including 3 fighters coached by Trevor Wittman in the main card!

SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event (and the co-main event) is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights. I will be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 268 Usman vs Covington 2

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Chris Barnett (+100) (DK 8300) (FD $14) vs. Gian Villante (-125) (DK 7900) (FD $15).

Ok… so I am going to preface this pick by saying that I don’t believe that either fighter is very good. In fact, Villante is most likely one of the worst fighters currently in the heavyweight division. His last two wins have come by split decision and he lost to Sam Alvey… there’s no way to sugar coat that. Villante is slow, he telegraphs everything, he struggled to make the heavyweight max and he absorbs a lot of damage. Not to mention, this is Villante’s retirement fight! Barnett should be able to give Villante his fourth straight loss and although I doubt this fight will be too memorable, the bottom line is we are getting a better fighter priced as an underdog with serious knockout potential.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Chris Barnett (+100) (DK 8300) (FD $14). SECOND ROUND TKO

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Alex Pereira (-275) (DK 9100) (FD $20) vs. Andreas Michailidis (+225) (DK 7100) (FD $10).

This fight is not really even close. On one side we have Michailidis who’s only UFC win came against one of the worst fighters in UFC history, KB Bhullar. On the other side, we have a seasoned kickboxer who is the only fighter to ever knockout Middleweight champion Israel Adesanya in professional combat. (He also holds a 2-0 record over him) Needless to say Poatan has a clear advantage on the feet and other than one takedown against KB Bhullar, I have not seen anything inspiring from Michailidis on the ground. Michailids has a decent BJJ background but he has not been able to take his opponents down to showcase the grappling, this is a big reason why I’m so high on Pereira. In a standup fight this is Poatan’s (Pereira) fight to win. On top of that, Pereira has been very active, having fought twice already this year. While Michailids only has the Bhullar fight from earlier this year. Pereira also trains with Texiera which is a solid training partner, especially for your UFC debut. My only concern is MMA experience, Michailidis has had far more MMA fights but for DFS purposes, the kickboxing pedigree from Pereira more than makes up for it. Regardless, this is going to be a very anticipated fight, if Pereira can start of his UFC career with a bang, we might see him move up the division very quickly.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Alex Pereira (-275) (DK 9100) (FD $20) FIRST ROUND TKO

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Ian Garry (-400) (DK 9500) (FD $22) vs. Jordan Williams (+300) (DK 6700) (FD $8).

Ian Garry is one of the most highly touted prospects out of Ireland since Conor McGregor. He’s very well rounded and versatile and is up against Jordan Williams, who we last saw getting put to sleep by Mickey Gall. Garry is a serious knockout threat with four of his five finishes coming by knockout. This will most likely be Jordan’s last shot to stay in the organization, if he cant compete with Garry he will most likely be cut. Despite coming from across the pond, Garry has been training at a solid gym in Sanford MMA. Knowing that his fundamentals are excellent, if he is able to hone in on those skills, this fight will be a springboard to bigger and better things for Garry.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Ian Garry (-400) (DK 9500) (FD $22) SECOND ROUND TKO

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Kamaru Usman (5 ROUNDER) -334 (DK 9300) (FD $22) (Kamaru has levelled up, simple as that. Over his last three title defenses he’s outclassed his opponents every time, even when getting rocked by Gilbert Burns. One thing is for certain, this fight is between the top two guys in the division right now (not including Chimaev). Covington will be the biggest test Usman has faced in his title reign. Aside from the persona and the shenanigans Covington is a well rounded fighter. He can keep up with him in the wrestling department (I’d even give Covington a bit of an advantage there), he has a strong gas tank and he was able to keep up with him on the feet in their first fight until the last round. Usman is my pick for this fight because he’s been far more active in the cage and the striking technique that we saw in both the second Masvidal fight and the Burns fight are on another level. Covington works from a DFS perspective, because even in a loss he should put up decent numbers for his price and he has a path to victory. If we see the Covington that fought against Woodley, this will be an extremely close fight)

Rose Namajunas (5 ROUNDER) +100 (DK 8200) (FD $17) (Zhang Weili hasn’t learned from her loss, its clear as day. She’s making excuses or underplaying the fact that she got caught early. I took Rose as a big dog in their first fight and I’m leaning towards her again in this one (again as a dog). Rose has a clear edge when it comes to her kicking game, her feints are excellent, her striking IQ is far and above her competition and her speed is deadly. I also think she had a lot more tricks in her gameplan that we just didn’t get to see because the fight ended so quickly. I think we have seen an evolution in Rose’s game. Weili will have an advantage when it comes to her (hand) striking speed and overall output but she has to learn the lessons about timing and footwork from the first fight or else this could end in a very similar way. The odds make much more sense this time around, and even though I’d give Rose the edge, this is a razor thin fight if Weili can stop Rose from executing her gameplan.)

Marlon Vera -160 (DK 8800) (FD $16) (Value on FanDuel)

Shane Burgos -188 (DK 9000) (FD $19)

Justin Gaethje -220 (DK 8900) (FD $18) (Michael Chandler works too for DFS, very similar fighting styles and a very close matchup, Chandler has an edge in wrestling and Gaethje has a slight edge in the striking department with higher volume. Chandler will have to focus on investing in the body early but that could lead him to getting too committed to his shots leaving him open to Gaethje’s counter punching. A big difference I see between these two is the leg kicks, Gaethje loves to throw them and Chandler never checks them, this wont only harm Chandler’s mobility but it’ll keep the fight at Gaethje’s distance while also leading to Chandler going in for some desperate shots. Gaethje will also be able to stop a lot of Chandler’s desparation shots if it gets to that point in the fight. Bottom line, both these guys throw with nasty intentions and are capable of putting their opponent to sleep.)

Al Iaquinta GPP +162 (DK 7600) (FD $12)

Phil Hawes -334 (DK 9400) (FD $22)

Nassouradine Imavov -125 (DK 8500) (FD $16) (Shahbazyan works for DFS, but Imavov has an upper hand on the feet in this fight. Also Shahbazyan has one of the worst coaches in the UFC in his corner)

Dustin Jacoby -400 (DK 9600) (FD $21)

Melsik Baghdasaryan -400 (DK 9200) (FD $21) (Opponent came in overweight)

Ode Osbourne -175 (DK 8700) (FD $17) (Opponent came in overweight)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 3 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

UFC 267.

BLACHOWICZ V TEIXEIRA

Wow! We are finally back on Fight Island for the biggest card of the month! Because of the time zone difference, today’s slate will start at 10:30 AM ET. This is a big change but we will have 13 fights that will take us well into the afternoon and we have some BANGERS coming up including two title fights and the return of Khamzat Borz Chimaev!

SLATE STARTS AT 10:30 AM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended but not mandatory. Exposure to the co-main event is recommended. (Stacking the co-main makes sense for GPP but I would not recommend it as a strategy) DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights. I will be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 267 Blachowicz vs Teixeira

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Benoit Saint Denis (+225) (DK 7700) (FD $12) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (-2275) (DK 8500) (FD $17).

Here we have a rookie submission specialist making his UFC debut in Saint-Denis. He’s going to have a hard time on the feet against dos Santos but if it ends up on the ground, he’ll be in his own world. Dos Santos has struggled a bit in the UFC and has not been consistent at all. dos Santos is coming in 1-2 in his last three and only has a striking differential of 0.98 with a striking defence rate of 59%. His 52% takedown defence rate is very concerning against a fighter like Saint-Denis. It’s a risky call but I think he can win and he has good DFS upside at his price.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Benoit Saint Denis (+225) (DK 7700) (FD $12). SECOND ROUND SUBMISSION

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Khamzat Chimaev (-600) (DK 9500) (FD $23) vs. Li Jingliang (+450) (DK 6700) (FD $8).

Oh boy, he’s back… Going through Chimaev’s UFC and professional library took me no time at all. This guy is an absolute savage. I have never seen someone with this kind of pressure and overall well-roundedness. As we saw through his first three UFC fights (where he has absorbed a total of two strikes) he is a different animal with crazy speed, pressure and power. Jingliang is a well-seasoned fighter with heavy hands and some good wins in the octagon (ie his last fight against Ponzinibbio) but I can’t see him getting an upper hand in this fight unless he gets really lucky. I will say that the odds are a bit extreme but I won’t recommend Jingliang, this will be a rough night at the office for him. (Chimaev had a little trouble making weight but that does not affect my pick)

MY UFC DFS PICK: Khamzat Chimaev (-600) (DK 9500) (FD $23) FIRST ROUND TKO

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Magomed Ankalaev (-334) (DK 9100) (FD $20) vs. Volkan Oezdemir (+250) (DK 7100) (FD $11).

The last time we saw these two in the cage they were in polar opposite scenarios. Oezdemir was on the wrong end of a Prochazka knockout (2020, he was competitive in the fight until the knockout sequence) and he came into that fight on a two-fight winning streak after losing to some of the best fighters in the division. Ankalaev on the other hand defeated Nikita Krylov (solid groundwork and control for two rounds after facing adversity in the first round against a really solid) and Ion Cutelaba (Devastating first-round KO against a brawler) within that same time. Ankalaev has a significant power advantage over Oezdemir and with a decided advantage in wrestling/grappling I don’t see a side to this fight where Ankalaev doesn’t have a clear advantage. Those are my favourite kind of plays. Like Chimaev, Ankalaev is very well-rounded and even though he can be challenged against top fighters in the light heavyweight division Oezdemir is not there.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Magomed Ankalaev (-334) (DK 9100) (FD $20) SECOND ROUND TKO

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Jan Blachowicz (5 ROUNDER) -300 (DK 9000) (FD $22) (Teixeira works, but he is much slower on the feet and if Blachowicz can stop the fight from getting to the ground he will have a clear path forward but as we saw in Teixeira’s fight against Santos, he can take some damage and come back with his own shots but Teixeira’s only hope is a strong BJJ performance which will be even more difficult since Blachowicz is a BJJ blackbelt. I don’t see as much DFS value in this title fight as I do in the other title fight but Teixeira is a GPP option and Blachowicz is a solid cash option)

Petr Yan (5 ROUNDER) -220 (DK 8800) (FD $21) (These odds are too far apart, this is a closer fight and even though I’d give Yan an edge, Sandhagen makes sense for DFS and I would not be surprised if Sandhagen won. Both Yan and Sandhagen have extremely high striking outputs which is an excellent trait for DFS)

Tagir Ulbanbekov -400 (DK 9400) (FD $20)

Lerone Murphy -334 (DK 9300) (FD $19)

Virna Jandiroba +130 (DK 8000) (FD $15) (Extremely close fight, I think Jandiroba can close the distance and throw the harder shots and I would favour Jandiroba if the fight transitioned to the ground. With this fight being the hardest one for me to call on the entire card, I’ll take the underdog but I think Ribas makes a lot of sense, especially on FanDuel where they are both inexpensive and the same price)

Michal Oleksiejczuk GPP +100 (DK 7800) (FD $14)

Andrei Petroski -250 (DK 8600) (FD $17)

Albert Duraev -400 (DK 9200) (FD $20) (Kopylov works as a DFS play but Duraev should get the win if he can get the fight to the ground)

Zubair Tukhugov -170 (DK 8300) (FD $16) (One of the closer fights on the card, will most likely end up going to a decision)

Alexander Volkov -334 (DK 8900) (FD $19) (Tybura can win but Drago has a huge advantage in reach and power. Overall I will most likely stay away from this fight)

Islam Makachev -600 (DK 9600) (FD $23) (Hooker has a chance if he can keep this one on the feet, I don’t Makachev will produce value for his price and I think Hooker can. This is going to be hard for Hooker since he is not a good grappler but if he can keep Makachev on this outside with his superb kickboxing he has a shot. Hooker will be Makachev’s biggest challenge in the UFC to date and even though he has a clear gameplan with the wrestling, you can never count out the Hangman)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 7 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

UFC Vegas 41.

COSTA V VETTORI

I hope you were able to do well off of the last article, it was an interesting one but we are back again for tonight’s slate! Tonight, we have a slate that starts at 1:00 PM ET. Today we have 14 action-packed fights! So let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 1:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended but not mandatory. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights but this fight is not between two high output fighters. (Especially Vettori who prioritizes wrestling) I will be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 41 Vettori vs Costa

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Gregory Rodrigues (-110) (DK 8000) (FD $16) vs. Jun Yong Park (-110) (DK 8200) (FD $16).

Rodrigues earned my respect in his last fight against Dusko Todorovic. He picked him apart and completely dominated the fight on the feet. Both these fighters are really even statistically and given that Gregory has only lost one fight since 2015 and doesn’t have the ugly loss against fluffy Hernandez, I’m slightly edging on his side for tonight’s matchup.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Gregory Rodrigues (-110) (DK 8000) (FD $16). UNANIMOUS DECISION

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Zviad Lazishvili (-125) (DK 8500) (FD $17) vs. Jonathan Martinez (+100) (DK 7700) (FD $11).

This is not to say that Martinez is a bad DFS play but I wholeheartedly think that after my research Laziashvili will secure the win tonight. Martinez doesn’t have a lot of notable wins and has a very ugly loss in his last fight against Davey Grant where he was heavily favoured. Statistically, Laziashvili has a crazy finish rate which spans through his time in LFA as well as the Eastern European regional scene. I’m very excited to see this young prospect fight in a passable test against Jonathan Martinez

MY UFC DFS PICK: Zviad Laziashvili (-125) (DK 8500) (FD $17) SECOND ROUND SUBMISSION

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Grant Dawson (-400) (DK 9300) (FD $22) vs.
Rick Glenn (+300) (DK 6900) (FD $8).

Personally, I don’t even see this as a close fight. Grant is a very well rounded fighter who is proficient on both the ground and on the feet and he holds a decided advantage against Rick Glenn who has been plagued by inconsistency throughout his UFC career. Statistically, strikes thrown are fairly close but that’s where the similarities end, Glenn absorbs a lot more damage per minute and on the ground they will enter Dawson’s world. I haven’t seen anything from Glenn to tell me that he would be competitive on the ground leading me to believe that if Dawson was able to transition the fight there, it’ll be over.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Grant Dawson (-400) (DK 9300) (FD $22) SECOND ROUND SUBMISSION

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Marvin Vettori (5 ROUNDER) -188 (DK 8600) (FD $22)

Dwight Grant +125 (DK 7800) (FD $14)

Jeff Molina -175 (DK 8700) (FD $18)

David Onama GPP +350 (DK 6700) (FD $8)

Livinha Souza -138 (DK 8300) (FD $16)

Seung Woo Choi -300 (DK 9200) (FD $21)

Nico Negumereanu -225 (DK 9100) (FD $19)

Laureano Starapoli -250 (DK 9000) (FD $20)

Tabatha Ricci -250 (DK 8900) (FD $20) (Fade)

Khama Worthy +150 (DK 7400) (FD $11)

Jessica Rose Clark -170 (DK 8500) (FD $17)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 7 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

UFC Vegas 40.

LADD V DUMONT

I hope you were able to do well off of the last article, it was an interesting one but we are back again for tonight’s slate! Tonight, we have a slate that starts at 4:00 PM ET on Fanduel (4:30 PM ET on DraftKings). Today we have 10 action-packed fights! So let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET on FanDuel (4:30 PM ET on DraftKings)

Exposure to the main event is recommended but not mandatory. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights but this fight is not between two high output fighters. I will be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 40 Ladd vs Dumont.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Estela Nunes (+135) (DK 7700) (FD $14) vs. Ariane Carnelossi (-160) (DK 8500) (FD $16).

Here we have a muy thai world champion in Nunes making her UFC debut against a fellow countrywoman in Carnelossi. In examining their records I was not impressed with Carnelossi’s strength of schedule, especially when compared to Nunes who has experience in other top level organizations such as One Championship where she competed for the belt. Nunes is coming off a bit of a long layoff having been suspended for 2 years after a positive test but with that all out of the way I think Nunes was given a very favourable matchup. Carnelossi will be able to cause some issues for Nunes if she is able to strike on the inside but for the most part Nunes should be able to use her Muy Thai to keep the fight at a comfortable distance. Following the pace of Carnelossi’s last UFC fight I am very much looking forward to this one. Get ready for some fireworks.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Estela Nunes (+135) (DK 7700) (FD $14). UNANIMOUS DECISION

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

L’udovit Klein (-400) (DK 9200) (FD $23) vs. Nate Landwher (+300) (DK 7000) (FD $8).

Klein is the heaviest favourite on the card for a reason. He’s a much more talented striker than Landwher and will be able to have a decided advantage on the feet with his speed. Spekaing of feet, Klein has a series of vicious highlight reel Headkick KOs which always keeps his opponents on notice. Klein also has a wealth of MMA experience at the top levels of the sport outside the UFC. It’ll take a fighter with the quality of Mike Triziano to compete with the likes of Klein and although Landwehr is tough and very durable he is not at the skill level of Triziano and wont be able to compete against Klein.

MY UFC DFS PICK: L’udovit Klein (-400) (DK 9200) (FD $23) SECOND ROUND TKO

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Bruno Silva (-155) (DK 8300) (FD $18) vs. Andrew Sanchez (+135) (DK 7900) (FD $13).

Silva is making his second appearance after a long layoff and in his first fight back we could immediately tell that he was ready. His fight with Wellington Turman wasn’t even close and Silva looks poised to repeat that performance tonight against El Dirte Sanchez. Silva is a very credentialed Muy Thai fighterand boasts a five fight winning streak compared to Sanchez who has last two of his last three fights to tough competition in Muradov and Vettori. Its hard to tell who is the better fighter in a stats comparison since Silva has only had one fight in the octagon that finished in the first round with him being barely touched. What we can tell is that Sanchez takes in more damage than he gives out (-0.57 Strike Differential), which is not a good idea when fighting against someone like Silva. What we can glean from Silva’s fight is that he is very adept to stopping the takedown as he turned away the 10 takedown attempts from Turman in the first and only round of his last fight. With Sanchez being at a disadvantage on the feet, I feel very comfortable taking Silva to win this one in a dominant fashion.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Bruno Silva (-155) (DK 8300) (FD $18) FIRST ROUND TKO

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Norma Dumont (5 ROUNDER) +115 (DK 7800) (FD $17) (Ladd works too but is moving up a weight class and did not look good on the scales two weeks ago causing her Bantamweight fight vs Chiasson to be cancelled)

Lupita Godinez -225 (DK 9000) (FD $19) (Godinez on a 7-day turnaround and is moving up a weight class following a dominant win last week where she didn’t take any damage)

Ramazan Emeev -350 (DK 9100) (FD $22) (I think Emeev will win but Roberts is a sneaky DFS option as I could easily see this fight going to a decision. Emeev has had some consistency issues but he should hold an edge over Roberts.)

Andrei Arlovski -120 (DK 8200) (FD $15)

Manon Fiorot -250 (DK 8900) (FD $20)

Erick Gonzalez GPP +185 (DK 7500) (FD $11)

Danaa Batgarel -165 (DK 8600) (FD $17) (Very close fight I will most likely have both sides of this fight since they are very evenly matched)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 5 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

UFC Vegas 39.

DERN V RODRIGUEZ

I hope you were able to do well off of the last article, I saw some good success in the chat with Mullarkey coming through for us. Unfortunately, Holland had that no contest but let’s hope for more success again tonight. Tonight, we have a slate that starts at 2:00 PM ET on FanDuel and 2:30 PM ET on DraftKings. Today we have 9 action-packed fights for our smaller early card! So let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 2:00 PM ET on FanDuel (2:30 PM ET on DraftKings)

Exposure to the main event is recommended but not mandatory. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights but this fight is not between two high output fighters. I will be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 39 Dern vs Rodriguez.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Charles Rosa (+162) (DK 7800) (FD $14) vs. Damon Jackson (-188) (DK 8400) (FD $16).

I was honestly surprised to see Rosa as the dog in this one since he has way more UFC experience than his opponent (who is making his second stint in the UFC) and Jackson was so soundly beaten in his last matchup against rising star Illia Topuria and he was arguably losing against Mirsad Bektic (who was on a two-fight losing streak coming into that fight) before he sunk in the third round guillotine. The Bektic fight proved that Jackson has serious trouble defending the takedown as Bektic was able to take him down 7 times in 9 attempts during that fight. Rosa is a talented striker who has excellent movement which will cause problems for Jackson who will look to grapple and find submission opportunities as he will be outmatched on the feet. Rosa holds a higher SLpM at 3.14 compared to Jackson’s 2.46 and Rosa even holds an advantage in the takedown department with 1.78 takedowns per 15 compared to Jackson’s 1.14. If Rosa can keep this fight on the feet and keep consistent strikes on Jackson, I’m comfortable rolling him this week in this small slate.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Charles Rosa (+162) (DK 7800) (FD $14). UNANIMOUS DECISION

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Randy Brown (-250) (DK 8800) (FD $19) vs. Jared Gooden (+200) (DK 7400) (FD $12).

Gooden got a lot of well-deserved praise after his flash KO against German favourite Niklas Stolze back in July but matching him up against Randy Brown is a big task for the veteran who is 1-3 in his only fights in the promotion. One of which was the loss to Alan Jouban in his retirement fight. Both fighters have been really active as of late and in Randy’s last fight he was able to submit Cowboy Oliveira with a one-arm RNC. It was a pure mismatch, as is this one. Randy Brown has some impressive wins over the likes of Wallery Alves and Bryan Barberena and has a far stronger strength of schedule as well as a much longer UFC tenure. Neither of these fighters likes to take the fight to the ground and the startling stat for me was the fact that Gooden has a SApM rate of 7.55. That’s way too high when dealing with a power puncher like Brown since Gooden will only be able to take so many of his shots. What’s also of note is that Brown does have a good acumen on the ground so if the fight does transition to the ground Rudeboy will be more than comfortable. (Gooden also tipped the scales, which could signify a bad weight cut)

MY UFC DFS PICK: Randy Brown (-250) (DK 8800) (FD $19) SECOND ROUND TKO

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Alexander Romanov (-700) (DK 9200) (FD $23) vs. Jared Vanderaa (+500) (DK 7000) (FD $8).

I‘ve had this fight on my radar for a while. Romanov is a crazy power puncher with a solid ground game, a rare combo for the heavyweight division. I would compare him to the Tom Aspinall’s or Cyril Gane’s of the division before I’d ever compare him to Vanderaa. As I mentioned in Vanderaa’s fight with the polar bear, I really never thought Vanderaa was that good. He has a very rudimentary striking style which can definitely get the better over someone like Justin Tafa and Harry Hunsucker (I’d even say Hunsucker was getting the better of him before the flash KO) but wouldn’t stand a chance against a prime prospect like Romanov. Romanov is the biggest favourite on the card for a reason. I locked him in on a bunch of my lines and I recommend you do the same because Vanderaa truly stands no chance. Some may question Romanov’s cardio, to that I would say that in his last fight he was pushed to the edge by a prospect of equal quality in Juan Espino and only someone of that skill level or higher would be capable of gassing King Kong.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Alexander Romanov (-700) (DK 9200) (FD $23) FIRST ROUND TKO

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Mackenzie Dern (5 ROUNDER) -200 (DK 8200) (FD $20) (Rodriguez is ok as a contrarian, Dern has an insane ground game and if the fight touches the ground its essentially over and she was able to perform decently on the feet against Jandiroba and Nina Nunes. Also, the draw against Markos doesn’t look great for Rodriguez, especially after what Dern was able to do against her. We’ve also seen Rodriguez struggle a bit with the takedown defence which allowed Carla Esparza to get the better of her.)

Sabina Mazo -175 (DK 8300) (FD $15) (Agapova works too as a GPP play)

Steve Garcia -350 (DK 9100) (FD $21) (Doesn’t have the strongest opponent and should be able to outstrike him without question. My only slight concern is that Garcia hasn’t fought in over a year.)

Chris Gutierrez -250 (DK 8900) (FD $21) (Colares GPP is a good option)

Silviana Gomez Juarez GPP +240 (DK 7600) (FD $11) (Godinez is in a good spot to win but Gomez Juarez works really well as a cheap option when building lines and even though she is coming in on short notice to fight Godinez, Gomez Juarez was already training for a fight on the Contender Series that was scheduled for next week where she was favoured. So the UFC was already looking to bring her in and she has already fought and won against UFC competition, including taking Ariane Lipski to a decision, where she even knocked the former KSW champion down at one point. In fact, Gomez Juarez’s only losses have come against UFC competition and were both title fights. Godinez also lost her UFC debut to Jessica Penne in a pretty underwhelming fight. So even though Godinez is the favourite and in my opinion justifiably so, I like Gomez Juarez as a cheap daily fantasy option.)

Tim Elliott GPP +162 (DK 7700) (FD $13) (Really solid underdog option, was struggling who to include in the article between him and Rosa)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 8 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

UFC Vegas 38.

SANTOS V WALKER

I hope you were able to do well off of the last article, I saw some good success in the chat with Pearce coming through for us, let’s hope for more success again tonight. Tonight, we have a slate that starts at 4:00 PM EST and has 12 action-packed fights for our newcomer stacked card! So let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM EST

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights but this fight is not between two high output fighters. I will not be branching away from the Main Event for my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 38 Santos vs Walker.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Jamie Mullarkey (+125) (DK 7000) (FD $12) vs. Devonte Smith (-150) (DK 9200) (FD $18).

Here we have an interesting matchup between two rising prospects in the Lightweight division. You would not be incorrect in putting this fight into the bin of the classic striker vs grappler matchup as Mullarkey is very tactical on the ground and Smith has excellent power on the feet. I would argue however that both fighters are very well-rounded and would be able to compete on the feet and on the ground respectively. We saw this from Mullarkey in his last fight as he KO’d a former opponent of Smith’s Khama Worthy (What is of note is that 9 times out of 10 Smith would beat Worthy and he would be a heavy favourite to do so if the fight took place again in the future). I don’t want to get into the MMA math of Mullarkey knocking out someone who knocked out Smith but what I do want to point out is how Mullarkey knocked out Worthy. Mullarkey has a very unorthodox striking style and it can be a lot to adapt to on the fly for some fighters as Worthy found out first hand. Like Smith, Mullarkey clearly can pack a ton of power into his punches and since we’re given such favourable pricing for Mullarkey, I am more than comfortable in using him as my primary salary saver piece when building lines today. Both these guys have high finish rates and I think that this will be a very close and entertaining fight.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Jamie Mullarkey (+125) (DK 7000) (FD $12). THIRD ROUND TKO

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Karol Rosa (-500) (DK 9000) (FD $22) vs. Bethe Correia (+380) (DK 7200) (FD $9).

So there is no denying that Correia (like Roxanne Modafferi last week) is one of the trailblazers of women’s MMA. She had a very memorable feud with Ronda which led to her first and only Championship fight which she proceeded to lose in a very memorable fashion. That being said, she beat Shana Baszler quite convincingly before that fight with Rousey and was seen as one of the better fighters in that division at that time. Now, a lot of time has passed and Correia is not among the competitive ranks in the women’s bantamweight division any longer. Bethe hasn’t fought since 2020 when she was picked apart for three straight rounds. The now 38 yr old fighter has said that this will be her retirement bout and she is going up against a possible future player in the bantamweight division in Karol Rosa. Karol has an extremely high output for her division at 7.73 SLpM which has allowed her to put up crazy significant strike numbers such as the fight against Lara Procopio where she fired off 171 significant strikes. Rosa also has stellar takedown defence (Correia is not known for her takedowns) and is able to take her opponents down when necessary. I truly think based on what I’ve seen that Correia is severely outmatched here and I will have a fair share of Karol Rosa in my lineup builds today.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Karol Rosa (-500) (DK 9000) (FD $22) FIRST ROUND TKO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Kevin Holland (-175) (DK 9600) (FD $17) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+150) (DK 6600) (FD $13).

Big mouth is back!!! The UFC have given him a much more beatable opponent this time in Kyle Daukaus who has not been experiencing the same level of success as his brother Chris who won on last week’s card. Holland experienced two losses to some of the middleweight divisions’ best grapplers in Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori (the latter of which was a short notice bout for Holland) and it needs to be said that Holland did not look good on the ground at all. He almost looked stagnant on the bottom and couldn’t transition back up after being taken down. Luckily for Holland, he’s coming into this fight with a full camp so I am sure he’s addressed the holes in his wrestling game and he is up against a fighter in Daukaus who holds a 29% takedown clip, which is not great. On the feet, Holland has incredible hand speed and serious knockout power as we saw when he beat Jacare Souza and Joaquin Buckley. I don’t think Daukaus has the ability to exploit the holes that have been identified in Holland’s fight style and I think this will be an excellent opportunity for Holland to get himself back into the top 10 of the middleweight division after a stellar 2020 campaign where he went 5-for 5-in the octagon.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Kevin Holland (-175) (DK 9600) (FD $17) FIRST ROUND TKO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Thiago Santos (5 ROUNDER) -150 (DK 8800) (FD $20) (Walker is ok as a contrarian)

Alejandro Perez -250 (DK 9100) (FD $21)

Douglas Silva de Andrade -250 (DK 9200) (FD $20)

Casey O’Neill -225 (DK 9000) (FD $18)

Jared Gordon +100 (DK 7900) (FD $14) (Very close fight, Gordon has the edge on the feet)

Shana Young +110 (DK 8000) (FD $15) (Fade)

Niko Price -188 (DK 8400) (FD $19)

Alexander Hernandez -550 (DK 9400) (FD $23)

Misha Cirkunov GPP +125 (DK 7600) (FD $14)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 5 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!