Fight

UFC Fight Night 204

VOLKOV V ASPINALL

FINALLY! We have our first fight night outside of Vegas in who knows how long! Today we have a really special one as the UFC travels across the pond to London, England and are destined to make a big splash, showing off their top British talents for the hometown crowd. Today’s slate will start at 1:30 PM ET. Today’s slate has some really interesting prospects and some future faces of the franchise, including Muhammad Mokaev and Paddy Pimblet! Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 12-fights that will take us well into the night! Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started!

SLATE STARTS AT 1:30 PM ET

Exposure to the main event (and co-main) is acceptable. DFS production in these fights are usually be high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines due to the low activity among these fighters. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Fight Night 204 Volkov vs Aspinall.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Jack Shore (-110) (DK 7600) (FD $15) vs. Timur Valiev (-110) (DK 8600) (FD $15).

Both these fighters are very talented and are very evenly matched. I can’t help but favour Shore in this matchup who has made small adjustments to his UFC game and has overall improved a strong skillset. Shore loves the RNC and has won 7 of his 14 fights by taking the back. On the feet, both fighters are very evenly matched with high outputs. Valiev has a slightly higher output but Shore absorbs less damage, making their striking differential very similar. On the ground though, they are quite different. Shore averages around three more takedowns a fight than Valiev does and Shore has a 100% takedown defence compared to Valiev’s 50%. Both these fighters have solid tanks and can fight hard for the full 15 but I do think that Shore does have a significant enough advantage on the ground to where it can make the difference in this fight.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Jack Shore (-110) (DK 8400) (FD $18). THIRD-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Paddy Pimblett (-550) (DK 9400) (FD $23) vs. Rodrigo Vargas (+400) (DK 6800) (FD $8).

One of the biggest showmen to hit the UFC since Conor McGregor is back in the Octagon after his shaky but impressive first-round finish over Luigi Vendramini. His reward for his highlight-reel KO is that he is now being spoon-fed a win in front of his home crowd. Kazula Vargas has really not looked good as of late and even though Paddy is early on in his UFC tenure I’d still say this is about as close as a mismatch as you could get for him. Vargas is 1-2 with his lone win being his surprise victory over Rong Zhu. Vargas really hasn’t faced anyone with the skill set of Pimblett and Paddy packs a lot of power in his punches and can also take a good shot to give one back. Pimblett is also a much more calculated and mentally fit fighter who can really take control of the fight if it transitions to the ground. Pimblett is very good at setting up his combinations with kicks but could do a better job at defending himself after combinations. The bottom line is, I think Pimblett has fought and beaten tougher guys than Vargas and I am looking forward to seeing what Pimblett brings to the Octagon this weekend.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Paddy Pimblett (-550) (DK 9600) (FD $16) FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible FIRST-ROUND KO).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Ilia Topuria (-550) (DK 9300) (FD $22) vs. Jai Herbert (+400) (DK 6900) (FD $9).

He’s back. After an extremely impressive KO win over a guy nobody wanted to fight in Ryan Hall, Topuria is back. This pick isn’t to say that Herbert is a bad fighter because he’s not, he’s just running directly into a freight train. Topuria is so technically gifted but on top of that, he also has INSANE power and has a well-rounded attack with threats coming from every direction. There’s really no nice way to say this but Topuria is simply going to beat the breaks off of Herbert. Even with the move up in weight class for Topuria he still holds, in my opinion, a decided edge in striking and a very clear edge in grappling. Statistically, Herbert has a negative strike differential (-0.63) in the UFC while Topuria holds a positive strike differential (+0.85). In the takedown department, that’s where things really break away. Topuria averages over 3 takedowns a fight and Herbert holds a takedown defence rate of only 30%. Realistically Herbert is going to struggle a lot in this one and I do not see this fight reaching the final bell.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Ilia Topuria (-550) (DK 9300) (FD $22) FIRST-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Tom Aspinall (5 ROUNDER) -138 (DK 8300) (FD $18)

Muhammad Mokaev -400 (DK 9100) (FD $21)

Molly McCann -138 (DK 8400) (FD $18) (DK Value Play)

Cory McKenna (FADE) -250 (DK 8800) (FD $19)

Nikita Krylov -188 (DK 8700) (FD $19) (Paul Craig works too, the only path to victory for Craig is through Submission, leaning towards fading this fight)

Sergei Pavlovich -350 (DK 9000) (FD $20)

Mike Grundy -170 (DK 8500) (FD $17)

Gunnar Nelson -550 (DK 9200) (FD $21)

Arnold Allen -110 (DK 8000) (FD $17) (Very close fight, I like Dan Hooker a lot too, may end up having shares of both sides on this fight)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 4 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!

(Alternate: Sergei Pavlovich)

UFC Vegas 50

SANTOS V ANKALAEV

We’re back after a crazy numbered card last week. We at WinDaily had a great night and we got some nice value, especially on Maryna Moroz! Today’s slate will start at 4:00 PM ET. Today’s slate has some really interesting matchups with some heavy hitters and absolute killers stacked through the card! Read more below to find out my take! Tonight there will be 14-fights that will take us well into the night! Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started!

SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event (and co-main) is acceptable. DFS production in these fights are usually be high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines due to the low activity among these fighters. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 50 Santos vs Ankalaev.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Terrance McKinney (+137) (DK 7900) (FD $11) vs. Drew Dober (-163) (DK 8300) (FD $19).

For those wondering, yes this is the same McKinney that fought two weeks ago and YES this is the second time that McKinney is list as our value target of the week. Last time he was at even money and came away with a first round RNC over Fares Ziam. Tonight, he’s hopping back in the octagon with Drew Dober on short notice. Unlike most short notice fights, McKinney is going on the quick turnaround and is coming into this fight very fit. Dober has fought some solid competition over his last two fights but hasn’t won a fight since 2020 with his biggest win coming against Alexander Hernandez. McKinney is in for his toughest test tonight but the bookies are still showing him no respect. Dober has had some struggles on the ground having been submitted four times since joining the UFC. McKinney averages over three takedowns a fight and with Dober’s takedown defense at a mere 55% he may have trouble with McKinney’s ground game. It is safe to say that this is a much closer fight than the bookies would have you believe and that McKinney has been undervalued again.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Terrance McKinney (+137) (DK 7900) (FD $11). SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION.

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Damon Jackson (-110) (DK 9600) (FD $16) vs. Kamuela Kirk (-110) (DK 6600) (FD $15).

For the second fight we will look at tonight we have another short notice matchup as Kamuela Kirk came in to replace Joshua Culibao. Kirk will be making his second UFC appearance after a decision win against Makwan Amirkhani last year. Kirk’s last fight was not very entertaining and he was taken down five times over fifteen minutes, with Amirkhani having ground control for over six minutes of the fight. Jackson is a strong BJJ practicioner and if Kirk gives him anywhere near that much time to work on the ground Kirk’s night is as good as over. Damon doesn’t have the strongest style but he can wear his opponents down with his grappling and take advantage of any openings his opponents give him. As the fight goes on, the more I’ll like Jackson. Damon Jackson is criminally underrated and for a fighter who has a good all around skill set I am strongly favouring his chances against the relatively green Kamuela Kirk.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Damon Jackson (-110) (DK 9600) (FD $16) SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Azamat Murzakanov (-188) (DK 9100) (FD $20) vs. Tafon Nchukwi (+162) (DK 7100) (FD $10).

Now we didn’t get to see a lot of Murzakanov during his Contender Series bout but what we did see was more than impressive. It took him only three minutes to knock his opponent clear out in one of the more ruthless knockouts I’ve ever seen on the Contender Series. What’s interesting about Murzakanov is that he can mix up his heavy striking with strong grappling, a combo that is a nightmare for a fighter like Nchukwi who can tend to tire out in his fights. Of course, both fighters have tremendous power but I would give the technique edge to Murzakanov. It’ll be interesting to see how Nchukwi attempts to handle the takedown attempts and the overall pressure from Murzakanov but from what I have seen from both fighters, I don’t see this one lasting very long.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Azamat Murzakanov (-188) (DK 9100) (FD $20) FIRST-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Magomed Ankalaev (5 ROUNDER) -550 (DK 9600) (FD $23)

Song Yadong -275 (DK 9200) (FD $22)

Khalil Roundtree +100 (DK 8000) (FD $15)

Sodiq Yusuff (FADE) -250 (DK 9100) (FD $21)

Alex Pereira -188 (DK 8900) (FD $20)

Javid Basharat -160 (DK 8700) (FD $18)

Miranda Maverick -350 (DK 9400) (FD $22)

Guido Cannetti GPP +125 (DK 7600) (FD $12)

Matt Semelsberger -200 (DK 9300) (FD $20) (AJ Fletcher GPP)

Gillian Robertson (FADE) -138 (DK 8500) (FD $21)

Dalcha Lungiambula -125 (DK 8300) (FD $17) (Cody Brundage GPP)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 3 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

*NEW* PARLAY OF THE DAY

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!

UFC 272

COVINGTON V MASVIDAL

We finally have another numbered carding tonight, and this one is an absolute banger welterweight fight! Today’s slate will start at 6:00 PM ET. Today’s slate has a lot of bad blood in the main event, I haven’t been this hyped for a non-title fight in a really long time! We have two former title challengers, a former Interim Champion and the Current BMF Champion squaring off in the same octagon! Read more below to find out my take! Tonight there will be 13-fights that will take us well into the night! Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started!

SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event (and co-main) is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 272 Covington v Masvidal.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Edson Barboza (+140) (DK 7900) (FD $13) vs. Bryce Mitchell (-170) (DK 8300) (FD $18).

Now, Mitchell is currently undefeated in the UFC and a lot of people are very high on the kid but after his last couple of fights red flags started flashing in my mind. He was struggling against middle level competition eventually getting the job done, albeit not in the most impressive fashion (grapple heavy not a viable strategy at the highest level). It’s now been nearly a year and half since he last stepped into the octagon and he’s going in there against a certified killer in Edson Barboza. Barboza has a lot of weapons in his arsenal as a highly trained BJJ, Taekwondo and Muay Thai Specialist. His kicks are lethal as we saw in his fights against Shane Burgos and Terry Etim. Although Mitchell is undefeated, he simply has never fought anyone like Barboza and I don’t think this is the best matchup for him. The fact that Barboza is as big of a dog as he is was quite surprising to me, I figured at the very least this would be a pick em’ fight when I first saw it. This fight does truly represent the striker vs grappler mantra with Barboza taking the role of the striker and Mitchell taking the role of the grappler. If Barboza can establish the leg kick early, hamper Mitchell’s movement and even block a takedown attempt or two, he should be able to take control of this fight.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Edson Barboza (+140) (DK 7900) (FD $13). THIRD-ROUND KO.

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Umar Nurmagomedov (-1000) (DK 9600) (FD $22) vs. Brian Kelleher (+600) (DK 6600) (FD $8).

Well… here we have what is far and away the biggest mismatch of the card. Despite the fact that Umar is definitely not his cousin Khabib and has a very unpolished skillset, he doesn’t have to be Khabib against Brian Kelleher. The grappling of Nurmagomedov is simply far superior to Kelleher’s, on top of that, Umar will have one of the world’s best grapplers walking him through the fight step-by-step in real-time. There isn’t much more to say on this one. This fight is another opportunity for Nurmagomedov to build his UFC resume and make the steady climb to the top while properly developing his skillset.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Umar Nurmagomedov (-1000) (DK 9600) (FD $22) FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Kevin Holland (-350) (DK 9100) (FD $21) vs. Alex Oliveira (+275) (DK 7100) (FD $9).

BIG MOUTH IS BACK!!! Finally, the return of Kevin Holland. The book was out a bit on him among the top 10 in the middleweight division. The higher-level grapplers like Blonde Brunson and Vettori were able to hold him down and neutralize his striking but that strategy just isn’t available to Oliveira. Oliveira has lost his last three fights and lost six of his last eight. He must feel as though the retirement bells are beginning to ring for him as it is getting harder and harder to see him being competitive in these matchups. For example, here, he’s so outmatched in the striking department when it comes to Holland’s power and speed that I don’t see Oliveira lasting very long in this fight. Holland is also a very distracting fighter which is a detriment to his own fight IQ but can also make his opponents lose their concentration and eventually lose their focus on the fight itself as well saw against Jacare. I was really hoping we could see Holland get a rematch against Kyle Daukaus considering how that fight ended but this fight is the perfect opportunity for Holland to get back into the win column and make another run at the top. He will need to seriously work on his grappling ability and takedown defence if he will make it high up in the UFC. (Don’t forget Kevin Holland went 5 for 5 in the UFC in 2020, legendary year for him and he can pick that form back up)

MY UFC DFS PICK: Kevin Holland (-350) (DK 9100) (FD $21) FIRST-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Colby Covington (5 ROUNDER) -334 (DK 9400) (FD $23) (Jorge Masvidal works in deep GPP formats but when we get down to brass tax, Covington is the better MMA fighter, his advantage in the wrestling department is a huge leg up in this one and I really think he can wear Masvidal down. My main frame of reference in this matchup is how both fighters compared against Usman. Colby performed better against a stronger Usman… Masvidal got out-wrestled in the first fight and laid out in the second)

Jamie Mullarkey +137 (DK 8000) (FD $15) (Jalin Turner also works but I am slightly leaning towards Mullarkey in this one)

Sergey Spivak -210 (DK 8700) (FD $19)

Marina Rodriguez -275 (DK 9300) (FD $21) (I was strongly considering listing her as my GPP play, my only concern was that the chance of a decision is very high. She lets her hands fly and throws a lot of volume with a lot of power. She is definitely a play I’m prioritizing for my lineups tonight)

Nick Negumereanu +110 (DK 7800) (FD $16) (After that sorry excuse for a performance out of Kennedy Nzechukwu in his last fight, I’m shocked he wasn’t cut. I have zero faith in him tonight and will need to see something extremely special out of him to have any faith in him moving forward. On top of that Nzechukwu is coming in on short notice for this fight.)

Rafael Dos Anjos -170 (DK 7300) (FD $18) (MUST PLAY ON DraftKings, he was priced as a dog when the slate was released under his initial opponent Rafael Fiziev. Against Moicano, he’s a sizeable favourite and he’s coming into the fight with a full camp against a fighter with a similar style who is coming in on extremely short notice. He works on FanDuel but at his price, there are better options, this is primarily a DK play)

Devonte Smith -160 (DK 8500) (FD $17)

Maryna Moroz GPP +162 (DK 7400) (FD $11)

Dustin Jacoby -188 (DK 8600) (FD $20)

Tagir Ulanbekov (FADE) -250 (DK 9000) (FD $20) (I like Tim Elliott as a DFS GPP play but Ulanbekov’s wrestling and combat sando is very strong and usually overwhelms his opponents. Either way I don’t see this fight being a high striking affair and it’s not the most suitable for DFS)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 3 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

*NEW* PARLAY OF THE DAY

If your bookie makes you choose (Nurmagomedov by SUB and Holland by KO)

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!

UFC VEGAS 49.

MAKACHEV V GREEN

We are back after a long break with another Fight Night Article! Today’s slate will start at 4:00 PM ET. Today’s slate has a lot of interesting debuts and an interesting main event! Read more below to find out my take! Tonight there will be 11-fights that will take us well into the night! Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started!

SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event (and co-main) is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 49 Makachev vs Green.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Terrance McKinney (+100) (DK 7800) (FD $15) vs. Fares Ziam (-125) (DK 8400) (FD $17).

I’m so hyped that we get to start off this article with a fight that was set to be on a previous card that was dropped the day of the fight. I am still in shock that McKinney is being so undervalued by the bookies, despite his first punch KO in his UFC debut against Matt Frevola. It doesn’t get much better than that. Fares has been medicore in the octagon and has not shown anything special going 2-1 over three fights that all were essentially grappling exchanges and all went to the judges’ table, including his loss against Don Magde which was very convincing and Magde is not even on the UFC roster anymore. As I said in the last article where these two were listed “He (McKinney) is coming into this fight on a four-fight win streak with ALL FOUR coming by first-round knockout. Mckinney has dynamite in his hands and in his feet and I think it’ll be too much for Ziam to handle in tonight’s matchup. If your book still has him as an underdog I’d recommend grabbing his line at that price. (Excellent parlay play as well)“

MY UFC DFS PICK: Terrance McKinney (+100) (DK 7800) (FD $15). FIRST-ROUND KO.

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Ramiz Brahimaj (-350) (DK 9300) (FD $22) vs. Michael Gillmore (+275) (DK 6900) (FD $8).

This is more of an unfortunate case than anything else. We have someone of UFC calibre in Brahimaj against someone who just is not at the pro level in Gillmore. For those who have been following Gillmore’s story, he waited in Vegas, leaving it all on the line hoping that a spot would become available for him on the Ultimate Fighter, he was lucky enough to get on the show after it had started with the injury to Tresean Gore where he promptly lost to Ultimate Fighter finalist Gilbert Urbina and then went on to lose convincingly in his UFC debut against fellow Ultimate Fighter contestant Andre Petroski. Gillmore has the heart of a UFC fighter but his talent isn’t quite there. I don’t expect to see him in the organization for much longer, unfortunately. In this matchup, it’s the grappling of Brahimaj that’ll cause Gillmore the most problems. I truly believe Gillmore isn’t equipped to handle Brahimaj’s ground attacks and as soon as the fight transitions to the ground, it’s as good as over.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Ramiz Brahimaj (-350) (DK 9300) (FD $22) SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Ignacio Bahamondes (-250) (DK 9000) (FD $19) vs. Zhu Rong (+200) (DK 7200) (FD $12).

On top of the fact that his opponent came in quite overweight, Bahamondes has made quite an impression in his short UFC tenure to this point with a crazy spinning heel kick KO in his last fight and a front kick to the face in his first fight on the contender series. Bahamondes has crazy talent and is able to use his natural advantages to his benefit. He’ll be coming into this one with a significant reach and height advantage. Both fighters are coming into this fight 1 and 1 in their UFC careers. However, Bahamondes has had the much more significant strength of schedule and his loss was a split decision whereas Rong lost more convincingly against weaker competition. Stats-wise, Bahamondes has a better strike differential and both fighters absorb a lot of strikes in their fights which would benefit Bahamondes with the higher clip and longer reach. Rong also has a negative striking differential and he simply cannot afford to absorb as many strikes from Bahamondes as he has been on a regular basis. I’m heavily leaning towards Golden Boy Bahamondes in this matchup

MY UFC DFS PICK: Ignacio Bahamondes (-250) (DK 9000) (FD $19) SECOND-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Islam Makachev (5 ROUNDER) -1200 (DK 9500) (FD $23)

Misha Cirkunov -125 (DK 8300) (FD $16)

Gregory Rodrigues -160 (DK 8500) (FD $18) (Armen Petrosyan works as an underdog play)

Josiane Nunes -200 (DK 8900) (FD $21) (Nunes is an extremely highly touted prospect out of Brazil, she hits like a truck and has only lost one fight against the surging Taila Santos on the regional scene. Otherwise she has been lethal)

Jonathan Martinez -250 (DK 8800) (FD $21)

Arman Tsarukyan -210 (DK 9100) (FD $19) (Alvarez works as a GPP Play)

Ji Yeon Kim (FADE) -175 (DK 8600) (FD $19)

Victor Altamirano GPP +110 (DK 8000) (FD $14)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 3 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!

Honorable Mention(s): Josiane Nunes

UFC VEGAS 48.

WALKER V HILL

We are back after a long break with another Fight Night Article! Today’s slate will start at 4:00 PM ET. Today’s slate has a lot of interesting debuts and a heavy-hitting main event! Read more below to find out my take! Tonight there will be 12-fights that will take us well into the night! Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started!

SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event (and co-main) is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 48 Walker vs Hill.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Diana Belbita (-125) (DK 8200) (FD $16) vs. Gloria De Paula (+100) (DK 8000) (FD $16).

I am honestly shocked to see this one coming out as a pick em’ from the Vegas bookies. De Paula is simply not a good fighter, she did not earn her spot in the UFC on the regional scene. Her performance on the contender series was mainly a grapple fest with a very poor showing from her opponent and her UFC career has been significantly unremarkable, giving Jinh Yu Frey her first win in the octagon and getting cleaned out early against Cheyanne Vlismas in July of last year. Belbita strikes at a much higher clip and despite struggling on the ground in her fight against Jojua, she had an extremely impressive striking performance against Hannah Goldy and was able to show some takedown defense, although Goldy did get her down a couple of times. Diana has much more MMA experience against stronger competition, including a stint with the Polish promotion KSW, where she fought for the Flyweight Championship. In this matchup, it comes down to having faith in Belbita’s striking ability and having zero faith in De Paula’s MMA ability.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Diana Belbita (-125) (DK 8200) (FD $16). UNANIMOUS DECISION.

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Jonathan Pearce (-350) (DK 9300) (FD $21) vs. Christian Rodriguez (+275) (DK 6900) (FD $8).

JSP is coming into this one against a young debuting fighter in Rodriguez. Thus far Rodriguez has been perfect in his MMA career but he has not faced anyone like Pearce before in his career. Pearce is very well-rounded and is capable of fighting on the feet and on the ground. Importantly, Rodriguez is coming in on short notice (about one week’s notice) as Pearce was initially set to face Austin Lingo who pulled out with an injury. Importantly, Rodriguez did compete on the Contender Series against Tracey Cortez’s brother and despite a good showing, he did not get the contract due to a weight miss. The two fighters spent a lot of the fight pressed up against the cage in that Contender Series fight and there wasn’t a lot of volume on either side. Whereas, in Pearce’s Contender Series fight he put together 127 strikes over two rounds before knocking out his opponent in the third. All told, I haven’t seen enough from Rodriguez to be comfortable in him on short notice and I have seen enough from Pearce to know what he’s capable of and he should be able to put Rodriguez away in this bout.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Jonathan Pearce (-350) (DK 9300) (FD $21) SECOND-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Parker Porter (-275) (DK 8900) (FD $21) vs. Alan Baudot (+225) (DK 7300) (FD $10).

Baudot has not had the best UFC career thus far, he’s gone 0-1-0 with one NC, where he was knocked out early and his opponent later tested positive for Ritalinic Acid. The last time Baudot faced an opponent who got disqualified after the fact was in 2019 where he was awarded the victory despite getting completely outmatched in the fight. All the UFC losses that both these fighters have endured were against top-level competition with Baudot’s other loss coming against Tom Aspinall and Porter’s lone UFC loss coming against Chris Daukaus. Porter is definitely the heavier fighter and from the very limited sample size available, he has a stronger striking differential than Baudot as both fighters have a high output while also absorbing a high amount of strikes (this is a striking fight). Baudot does have the reach and height advantage but he does not use them to his advantage. Porter is one the rise as of late in his UFC career, while a loss here for Baudot could spell the end of his time in the promotion.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Parker Porter (-275) (DK 8900) (FD $210) SECOND-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Johnny Walker (5 ROUNDER) +187 (DK 7200) (FD $13) (I see this fight as a pick em’ fight. Both fighters have serious power and can end the fight quickly. Walker’s fighting style is very unique and I can see Hill having problems handling it. Given that, I’m ever so slightly leaning towards Walker with his DFS value BUT Jamahal Hill is a solid pick as well)

Nikolas Motta -175 (DK 8500) (FD $18) (Jim Miller works as a DEEP GPP play)

Kyle Daukaus -275 (DK 8800) (FD $20) (Jamie Pickett is coming into this fight on short notice and Daukaus does have a clear advantage in the grappling department. Pickett does however work as a DEEP GPP play.)

David Onama -188 (DK 8400) (FD $17) (Benitez came in overweight… again)

Chad Anheliger -250 (DK 9100) (FD $20)

Chas Skelly -200 (DK 8700) (FD $19)

Jessica Rose-Clark (FADE) -188 (DK 8600) (FD $18)

Mario Bautista -350 (DK 9200) (FD $23)

Abdul Razak Alhassan (Pick Em’) +137 (DK 7900) (FD $15) (This is a clear pick em’ fight, both fighters excel in the same area [powerful striking] and have weaknesses in the same area [grappling] so anything could happen but I highly doubt this fight goes past the third round. As Alhassan has better DFS value, I’m going with him)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 3 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!

UFC 271.

ADESANYA V WHITTAKER

We are back after a long break with another Fight Night Article! Today’s slate will start at 6:00 PM ET. Let’s start off Super Bowl weekend with a bang! Today we have a great card with a lot of great fights as Adesanya will look to defend his title from the man he beat to get it Bobby Knuckles! Read more below to find out my take! Tonight there will be 14-fights that will take us well into the night! Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started!

SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event (and co-main) is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights. I will be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 271 Adesanya vs Whittaker 2.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

AJ Dobson (-125) (DK 8200) (FD $15) vs. Jacob Malkoun (+100) (DK 8000) (FD $16).

AJ Dobson made a HUGE impression on me in his DWCS win over Hashem Arkagha. Hashem was a very highly touted prospect out of the middle east and Dobson made him fold like a cheap suit, chasing him around the octagon until he finally knocked him down and submitted him in the closing sequence. Dobson is a serious prospect in the UFC and it doesn’t look as though the bookies are giving him enough respect. His opponent, Malkoun is pretty much only known as Whittaker’s training partner and as the guy who held Al Hassan down for a boring decision win in April of last year, on a card that was also headlined by Bobby Knuckles. Malkoun’s chin is very suspect and this fight is simply a mismatch on the feet. I am truly surprised that the odds are as close as they are, I’m heavily on Dobson for tonight’s slate.

MY UFC DFS PICK: AJ Dobson (-125) (DK 8200) (FD $15). FIRST-ROUND KO.

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Casey O’Neill (-500) (DK 9500) (FD $21) vs. Roxanne Modafferi (+380) (DK 6700) (FD $9).

I am honestly surprised to still see Modafferi fighting in the UFC. She is a former title challenger and a UFC legend but she cannot compete at the top levels anymore. I suspect that the back-to-back wins in 2020 are what is keeping her around but throwing her in a fight against a rising star like O’Neill is very reckless and I don’t see this fight going on for very long. We have already seen what O’Neill is capable of in the octagon and this fight seems like one where she’ll be able to pad her resume and continue her unbeaten streak. O’Neill has a very polished striking style and is also very capable on the mat. Whereas Modafferi has a very outdated striking style for Women’s MMA. Modafferi does have a black belt in BJJ but O’Neill should be able to avoid the ground and would be able to compete with her on the ground, if necessary, as a brown belt. Unsurprisingly, O’Neill is coming into tonight as the heavy favorite and will be able to crack the top 15 with a win here tonight, setting her up for top 10 matchups for the foreseeable future.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Casey O’Neill (-500) (DK 9500) (FD $21) FIRST-ROUND KO.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Jeremiah Wells (-225) (DK 9100) (FD $20) vs. Mike Mathetha (listed on DK as Blood Diamond) (+187) (DK 7100) (FD $11).

This fight will definitely end within the distance by knockout. We have two heavy hitters meeting up on tonight’s slate with Wells coming into his second UFC fight and Mathetha making his debut. Both have very impressive striking but Wells’ fundamentals are much more polished from what I’ve been able to see and I’m overly impressed with his debut in the octagon against UFC vet Warlley Alves. Mathetha can work as a very Deep GPP play but honestly, Wells is a considerable favourite here for a reason, I think he has a tactical advantage and they are even in the power department. Furthermore, Mathetha hasn’t really been tested as his opponents all have very suspect records with his last fight coming a year ago against a fighter who is now 5-4-0.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Jeremiah Wells (-225) (DK 9100) (FD $20) FIRST-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Israel Adesanya (5 ROUNDER) -300 (DK 9200) (FD $23) (Whittaker is a good option too and I will have a bit of exposure to hedge both sides of this fight)

Sergey Morozov -225 (DK 9000) (FD $19)

Carlos Ulberg -275 (DK 8900) (FD $20) (Fabio Cherant can work as a GPP play but I think there are better value options on this slate)

Ronnie Lawrence -334 (DK 9300) (FD $21)

Derrick Lewis -188 (DK 8800) (FD $18)

Derek Brunson +140 (DK 7600) (FD $14)

Max Grishin (FADE) -170 (DK 8700) (FD $18) (His opponent came in a whopping 12 lbs over, so the fight had to be moved up a division. Grishin was already big for the Light Heavyweight division but I don’t want to touch this fight with a ten foot pole, given the uncertainty on both sides)

Alex Hernandez +140 (DK 7700) (FD $13)

Marcelo Rojo (DEEP GPP) +300 (DK 6800) (FD $8) (Rojo has an advantage on the feet and Phillips will be looking to implement his wrestling game in this matchup. Rojo has the power though and at his price, he’s definitely worth a shot, especially considering the pieces you can fit in alongside him. Phillips should however be able to dominate this fight if it goes to the ground)

Andrei Arlovski -160 (DK 8300) (FD $16) (I’m leaning towards fading this one too, it seems like a fight that may have high output from the jump both both guys will gas themselves out and start punching air (literally) until the final bell)

Bobby Green -150 (DK 9100) (FD $16)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 6 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!

(AJ Dobson works as a fourth option)

UFC Vegas 47.

HERMANSSON V STRICKLAND

We are back after a long break with another Fight Night Article! Today’s slate will start at 4:00 PM ET. It’s been two weeks since that wild UFC 270 card and now we’re back and ready to kick off February in style!! Today we have a great card with a lot of great options! Read more below to find out my take! Tonight there will be 13 fights that will take us well into the night! Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started!

SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event (and co-main) is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights. I will be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 47 Hermansson vs Strickland.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Chidi Njokuani (+100) (DK 8000) (FD $15) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (-125) (DK 8200) (FD $16).

Chidi is making his UFC debut tonight against a UFC middle roster fighter who has begun to turn his UFC career around in Marc-Andre Barriault. Barriault has not massively impressed me with any particular skill set over his UFC career and the reason why he’s been able to maintain his spot on the UFC roster is his ability to capitalize on the mistakes of his opponents later on into fights. Njokuani is clearly the better striker and has more power in his punches. In this fight, he should be able to overwhelm Barriault’s defence and secure an early knockout.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Chidi Njokuani (+100) (DK 8000) (FD $15). FIRST-ROUND KO.

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Sam Alvey (+350) (DK 6900) (FD $8) vs. Brendan Allen (-450) (DK 9300) (FD $22).

Oh boy, I have no idea why Alvey is still in the UFC, it absolutely boggles my mind how they can keep someone with a six-fight losing streak (one draw in between) on the roster. Even in this position with Alvey’s opponent coming in on extremely short notice, there is no way to not be on Allen’s side in this fight. Alvey is not a UFC calibre fighter, his stats later on in his career are abysmal and I think once Allen has done his job, the UFC will finally rid themselves of Smilin Sam Alvey.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Brendan Allen (-450) (DK 9300) (FD $22) FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Jailton Almeida (-450) (DK 9400) (FD $23) vs. Danilo Marques (+350) (DK 6800) (FD $8).

Here we have the classic matchup between a striker and a grappler. Unfortunately for Marques, Almeida is very capable as both a grappler and a striker, whereas Marques cannot strike to save his life. Marques’ last fight was a shining example of his glaring flaw. Against Nzechukwu, Marques essentially climbed on his back for two rounds and essentially did nothing with the position. Then once they were back up for the third, Marques was quickly KO’d on the feet as he just has no competency in that area of MMA. If Marques employs a similar strategy against Almeida, he’s going to have a lot of problems just holding onto a BJJ position against an experienced grappler. Once Jailton neutralizes the one-dimensional fighting style of Marques, it’s simply his fight to win. I don’t see this one heading to the judges.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Jailton Almeida (-450) (DK 9400) (FD $23) FIRST-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Sean Strickland (5 ROUNDER) -210 (DK 8800) (FD $21)

Punahele Soriano -188 (DK 8600) (FD $18)

Shavkat Rakhmonov -225 (DK 9000) (FD $19) (Carlston Harris is a deep GPP play, do not overlook him!)

Tresean Gore -160 (DK 8300) (FD $17)

Julian Erosa -334 (DK 9200) (FD $22)

Miles Johns -275 (DK 8900) (FD $17)

Alexis Davis (FADE) -250 (DK 8700) (FD $18)

Hakeem Dawodu -170 (DK 8500) (FD $17)

Jason Witt (DEEP GPP) +110 (DK 7800) (FD $15)

Denys Bondar -300 (DK 9100) (FD $20)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 2 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!

UFC 270.

N’GANNOU V GANE

We are back with our first numbered card article of 2022! Today’s slate will start at 6:00 PM ET. It’s been nearly one month without fights but now we’re back and ready to kick off our first PPV of 2022 in style!! Today we have a great card with a lot of great options! Read more below to find out my take! Tonight there will be 11 fights that will take us well into the night! Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started!

SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event (and co-main) is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights. I will be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 270 N’Gannou vs Gane.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Gennaro Valdez (+162) (DK 7500) (FD $14) vs. Matt Frevola (-188) (DK 8700) (FD $16).

What a wild card to start our year of PPVs! The first fight we’ll be breaking down is a matchup between a UFC newcomer from Entram Gym (who have four fighters on this card!) and UFC vet Matt Frevola, who is on the wrong side of a two-fight losing streak after a quick loss to a short notice opponent in Terrance Mckinney. That fight does have some relevance here as the early pressure which helped Mckinney win is extremely evident in Valdez’s game. He fights at a crazy pace and throws everything with fight-ending intentions. His last fight on the Contender Series was an absolute rollercoaster and I would recommend watching it if you haven’t already. Watching it live and having the live odds right beside me was a wild experience. Valdez came into the five at around a -500 and by the end of the first, he was a heavy live dog. So much so, that it made his early knockout in the second round that much more impressive. I think the first-round performance from both fighters in Valdez’s DWCS fight was the best I have ever seen and although Valdez gassed out HARD by the end of the first, I don’t think Frevola has the ability to put on the same pressure with his strikes that Valdez faced. Frevola is a strong wrestler and it’s clear that’s where he’ll try to drive the action of the fight but his striking defence just generally isn’t great and that doesn’t bode well against an opponent who is 10-0-0 and has a 100% finish rate coming into tonight’s fight. I know the fight odds have fluctuated wildly in advance of this fight but I believe that Valdez will be able to get it done here tonight and I really like him as an underdog play. He will however have to maintain a steady pace and avoid long drawn-out grappling scrambles with Frevola.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Gennaro Valdez (+162) (DK 7500) (FD $14). SECOND-ROUND KO.

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Raoni Barcelos (-450) (DK 9300) (FD $22) vs. Victor Henry (+350) (DK 6900) (FD $8).

In his mid-30s it’s really hard to call Henry a prospect but he is making his UFC debut tonight against established UFC fighter Raoni Barcelos. Henry is coming into this fight on really short notice and I can’t help but feel that the fight would be more competitive had Henry been given a full camp. The reality of the situation is that Barcelos has a clean edge in the striking game and in order for Henry to utilize his advantage on the ground, he’ll need to use a lot of cardio that he has not really trained leading into this one. Also, we’re talking about Raoni Barcelos, he has a Takedown defence rating of 92% in the UFC, he’s been grappling and training in BJJ since before he could walk (his father Laerte Barcelos is a BJJ legend). Despite a setback in his last fight against Valiev, I really like Barcelos’ high output and he has a very clean and developed striking game to compliment his all-around MMA pedigree. Also, his strength of schedule far supersedes his opponents in this one, it’s really not even close. I think Barcelos can put the pace on him for all three rounds and I really like Raoni Barcelos tonight.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Raoni Barcelos (-450) (DK 9300) (FD $22) UNANIMOUS DECISION.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Jack Della Maddalena (-350) (DK 9200) (FD $22) vs. Pete Rodriguez (+275) (DK 7000) (FD $9).

Well, in this fight we have one of the most hyped-up prospects coming out of Australia since Robert Whittaker or Volk. Maddalena has had an interesting MMA career up to this point. He dropped his first two fights and since then has gone on a 10 fight heater where he’s absolutely beat the breaks off of his opponents, including one of the opponents he lost to. Maddalena is an absolute brawler and he can continue to put the pace on his opponents as the fight goes on. He’s able to strike well in both the Orthodox and Southpaw positions and he is very slick when firing off combos. I’ve really liked what I’ve seen out of Maddalena when it comes to his movement in the octagon and he’s able to get into the pocket to trade with his opponents. (He’ll have to be careful when jumping in against a guy with the power of Rodriguez but from what I have seen Maddalena has good Fight IQ) Maddalena was originally scheduled to fight Warlley Alves tonight but after Alves pulled out Maddalena decided to stay and was lucky enough to get rebooked on the same card. This means not only is his opponent coming in on short notice, but both fighters are making their UFC debuts tonight! Maddalena’s opponent is Pete Rodriguez. Rodriguez has had four professional fights (all in the regional iKon Fighting Federation) coming into this one and although he finished his opponents in impressive fashion, his opponents themselves weren’t that impressive, one has not won an MMA fight, and his best opponent holds a 5-1 record with all five of those wins coming against opponents who haven’t won a fight. So there is definitely something to say about Pete Rodriguez’s power and striking ability but he is one of the biggest can crushers in the UFC and on just a few days’ notice is making his debut against a highly-touted prospect. There are simply too many unknowns for Rodriguez when compared to Maddalena and with Jack coming in on a full camp, I have to take him here.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Jack Della Maddalena (-350) (DK 9200) (FD $22) FIRST-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Ciryl Gane (5 ROUNDER) -150 (DK 8400) (FD $18) (Francis N’Gannou works too)

Brandon Moreno (5 ROUNDER) -175 (DK 8500) (FD $17) (Figueredo works in GPP)

Silvana Gomez Juarez GPP +110 (DK 7900) (FD $14)

Michael Morales -110 (DK 8200) (FD $15)

Kay Hansen (FADE) -225 (DK 8800) (FD $20) (Jasudavicius works for DFS)

Michel Pereira -275 (DK 9100) (FD $21)

Said Nurmagomedov (FADE) -200 (DK 8600) (FD $17) (Stamann Deep GPP Play, has a chance to win but has a wrestling heavy style)

Tony Gravely -250 (DK 8900) (FD $20) (Striker vs Grappler, very much dependent on where the majority of the fight takes place. Oliveira works for DFS)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 5 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!

UFC Vegas 46.

KATTAR V CHIKADZE

We are back with the first UFC Article of 2022! Today’s slate will start at 5:00 PM ET. It’s been nearly one month without fights but now we’re back and ready to kick off 2022 in style!! Today we have a great card with a lot of great options! Read more below to find out my take! Tonight there will be 10 fights that will take us well into the night! Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started!

SLATE STARTS AT 5:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights. I will be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 46 Kattar vs Chikadze.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Ramiz Brahimaj (-125) (DK 7900) (FD $15) vs. Court McGee (+100) (DK 8300) (FD $16).

There are a few solid value options (more so on DK but we’ll get to that in a bit) on tonight’s slate but I think the one with the safest floor is Ramiz Brahimaj. Brahimaj is probably most well known for a pretty gruesome ear injury in his fight against Max Griffin who is off to a solid UFC career in his own right. Brahimaj came back from that setback and put away a mismatched Sasha Palatnikov in quick fashion with an RNC. The longer this fight goes on, the more comfortable I’ll be in Brahimaj, he’s a very durable fighter and he can put the pace on in this kind of matchup. McGee on the other hand, has been through absolute wars, but not taking anything away from the UFC OG, he is definitely on the downward trajectory in his career. McGee is coming into this matchup with two wins in his last seven fights and he is simply not what he used to be. McGee’s chin has significantly aged at this point and he can’t take the damage that he used to be able to. The odds are close and I am by no means counting McGee out but I am much more comfortable taking Brahimaj at this point in their respective careers. If Ramiz sticks to the game plan, puts pressure on McGee early and utilizes his advantage in the grappling department, Brahimaj should seal the deal.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Ramiz Brahimaj (-125) (DK 7900) (FD $15). SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION.

* DraftKings put their UFC Vegas 46 Slate out much earlier than FanDuel did and as a result, a couple of the fighters who were big underdogs in their original matchups were rebooked for the same card against short-notice opponents. In both these cases, the original underdogs are coming into tonight’s slate as heavy favourites despite being priced as heavy underdogs on DraftKings (but not on FanDuel, where they are priced appropriately based on their current matchup). With these two in your lines, you can run lines on DraftKings with all your fighters coming in as favourites, a significant advantage in all formats, especially in Cash Games where the ownership for these two will be very high.

**For DraftKings players TJ Brown (DK $7,100) and Brian Kelleher (DK $7,500) should be locked into your lines!**

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

TJ Brown (-250) (DK 7100) (FD $21) vs. Charles Rosa (+200) (DK 6800) (FD $9).

Having mentioned Brown earlier in the article, it is worth noting that he is playable on both sites and I love Brown’s floor against the veteran Charles Rosa. If Rosa was coming in with a full camp, I’d be more inclined to see this as a closer matchup but the fact of the matter is that like Court McGee, Rosa is on a downward trajectory in his career. Having lost three of his last five, with the opponents he beat getting cut from the UFC shortly after, it doesn’t bode too well for Rosa’s chances tonight. Despite being a black belt, he was absolutely worked by Damon Jackson on the ground and despite landing a lucky elbow that opened a cut on Jackson in the third round, he wasn’t able to capitalize on the advantage due to really questionable Fight IQ. For Brown’s side of things, he loves going for takedowns, averaging over four takedowns per fight, he completes them at a decent clip of 58% and Rosa only has a takedown defence percentage of 41%. These stats are amplified for TJ Brown when you factor in the speed advantage he holds over the ageing Rosa, who again has not been able to work on cardio in advance of this fight. On top of the advantage on the takedowns, Brown also holds an advantage in the striking department, as his striking is much more polished and he holds a striking differential of +1.12, while Rosa’s striking differential sits at -0.54. Following a shaky start to his UFC tenure, this is Brown’s opportunity to turn his fortunes around and set off for a positive stint in the UFC.

MY UFC DFS PICK: TJ Brown (-250) (DK 7100) (FD $21) UNANIMOUS DECISION.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Viacheslav Borshchev (-188) (DK 9000) (FD $20) vs. Dakota Bush (+162) (DK 7200) (FD $10).

The debuting Russian fighter has wrecking balls for hands and is going up against an opponent in Dakota Bush who can leave some openings for his opponents when he’s getting pressured. Borshchev does not have very great takedown defence but trains at a gym (Team Alpha Male) with a lot of great wrestlers and it is safe to assume that wrestling and takedown defence have been important focus points for Borshchev in this fight camp. Even with Bush’s higher experience level, Borshchev has a much higher SLpM and is a much more durable fighter than Bush. Borshchev’s only pro loss came by way of a close split decision and since that fight, he rattled off 3 KO victories, all in 2021, including an impressive knockout in the Dana White Contender Series against a previously undefeated Chris Duncan (7-0-0), where he came into the fight as a slight underdog and proved all the doubters wrong.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Viacheslav Borshchev (-188) (DK 9000) (FD $20) FIRST-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Giga Chikadze (5 ROUNDER) -220 (DK 9300) (FD $22) (Chikadze is good at one thing, kicking. He’s not just good though, he’s an insanely talented kicker and it is hard for a lot of fighters to defend against them. Chikadze is coming into this one-off three impressive KO wins, truly showing off his range as a fighter. The first KO was against Jamey Simmons and although he isn’t too notable, the kick was perfectly timed and cracked Simmons straight in the dome, its truly impressive and worth a watch if you haven’t seen it already. His last two wins have come against much more notable competition as he finished Cub Swanson with a body kick from hell, that put out the veteran in an instant. This win is even more pronounced considering Swanson’s recent run of form. His most recent win came against Edson Barboza who at the time was ranked 9th in the featherweight division. Chikadze knocked him down twice in the form of a brutal KO punch, cementing his place as a contender in the featherweight division. Kattar is coming in off a fight of the night performance against Max Holloway, unfortunately for Kattar, he was on the wrong end of most of the damage caused in that fight. Because of the amount of strikes, he absorbed he’s spent a considerable amount of time away from the octagon and coming into his first fight in about a year against Giga Chikadze is horrible news for the Massachusetts native. This just isn’t a good matchup for him as he is a very defensive fighter and you can’t let a fighter like Chikadze lead the dance. On top of this Kattar has never been great at checking kicks, which is made 1000x worse considering his opponent is one of the best Kickboxers in MMA. I really like Chikadze in this one and I would recommend locking him into your lines tonight.)

Rogerio Bontorin GPP +130 (DK 7400) (FD $12) (Bontorin will be coming into the fight much heavier than Royval and he can put that to good use when trying to execute his gameplan which will most likely include a lot of wrestling as he is much better than Royval in that department. My main concern with Royval is his fight IQ, he has very wild striking which can come in handy as it makes a fighter very unpredictable to their opponents and hard to gameplan for but this can make Royval’s overall game very sloppy, which is bad news for a very disciplined fighter in Bontorin. Royval also has trouble fighting on the backfoot and can get a little exposed when subjected to heavy pressure. This fight has FoTN written all over it, I like Royval too, but in DFS I would recommend prioritizing Bontorin)

Joanderson Brito -160 (DK 8600) (FD $17) (Bill Algeo works as a GPP play. Brito throws every punch with brutal intentions and he has a very wild style. As it is his first UFC fight, he’ll need to control his recklessness to some extent but he also utilizes a very takedown heavy offence which will let him control the pace of the fight if he gets the upper hand early on. It’s also important to note that Algeo gets taken down a lot, having been taken down at least four times in each of his three UFC fights for a total of 17 takedowns against over his three fights where he has one win and two losses all coming by way of unanimous decision. This fight is my secondary pick for FoTN)

Joseph Holmes (FADE) -150 (DK 8600) (FD $18) (Both these fighters are gun shy and low volume. This will most likely be a very slow pace and tactical fight, not good for DFS purposes. Fade overall)

Chase Sherman +110 (DK 7700) (FD $15) (Overall a low-level heavyweight fight. This fight is going to have a high total of Significant Strikes overall, Sherman has a higher SLpM of 6.24 compared to Collier’s 5.52. Regardless, both are very high and respectively both have very high SApM. This one could get sloppy but the longer it goes on, the more I like Sherman considering Collier has to cut down to the 265 heavyweight limit. Sherman also has great kicks that Collier may have some trouble checking)

Brian Kelleher -300 (DK 7500) (FD $23) (If Kellher sticks to his game plan, he’ll be in an excellent position to win this fight. Both fighters are generally well-rounded but I would not say that there is an aspect of fighting where Croom holds an advantage over Kelleher (wrestling, BJJ, striking). The only point of note regarding this matchup is that Kelleher is a bantamweight and this fight is taking place at featherweight. As a result, Kelleher will have a noticeable disadvantage in both height and reach. But by coming in on three-days notice, Croom has not had the proper time to work on his cardio and could gas himself easily. On top of that, he is very open to counter-striking and has trouble getting back into fights when his opponents take an advantage, as we saw in the Alex Caceres fight.)

Jennifer Maia GPP +162 (DK 7300) (FD $11) (Hard to lean strongly to one side or the other. The DFS value is on Maia as she has a clear path to victory with a significant advantage in her ground game. Chookagian definitely holds the advantage on the feet and Maia doesn’t have the best wrestling which will make it hard for her to get Chookagian to the ground. They have fought each other before with Chookagian taking the 29-28 UD win and I don’t believe that much has changed between these two fighters compared to their last meeting. Even so, Maia will still score well considering that she and Chookagian have similar striking differentials, and if she does pull off the win, she could be one of the better value plays of the slate… at least on FanDuel)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 3 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!

UFC Vegas 45.

DAUKAUS V LEWIS

We’re back with our first fight night after that crazy UFC 269 card! Today’s slate will start at 4:00 PM ET. What a crazy set of events last week! Especially with the final two fights. They really shook up the MMA world!! Today we have a great card with a lot of good sneaky options! Read more below to find out my take! Tonight there will be 14 fights that will take us well into the night! Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started

SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights. I will be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 45 Daukaus vs Lewis.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Melissa Gatto (+130) (DK 7400) (FD $14) vs. Sijara Eubanks (-160) (DK 8800) (FD $16).

I was honestly a little shocked when I saw the line for this fight. Since I didn’t expect that we would get Melissa Gatto as an underdog here. Sijara Eubanks is bad, like really bad. She has a 7-6-0 record, and was Bethe Correia’s only win (they fought in 2019) since 2016. Eubanks’ last win came against a fighter who fights in a lower weight class and Eubanks was able to dominate her with her size advantage. Gatto is taller than Eubanks, has a larger reach and is all-around more skilled than Eubanks when it comes to her fighting fundamentals. Gatto hasn’t had a lot of opportunities to prove herself quite yet but her last two wins came against UFC calibre fighters in Victoria Leonardo and Karol Rosa and Gatto currently holds a record of 7-0-2 coming into tonight. Unlike Gatto, I have not seen anything from Eubanks that makes me remotely comfortable putting her in any of my lines tonight. This fight will be an excellent opportunity for Gatto to move up the Flyweight ladder and maybe compete for a top-15 spot soon. (Plus Sarj came in overweight and has GARBAGE cardio even when she has a good cut)

MY UFC DFS PICK: Melissa Gatto (+130) (DK 7400) (FD $14). THIRD-ROUND TKO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Mateusz Gamrot (-188) (DK 9500) (FD $17) vs. Diego Ferreira (+162) (DK 6500) (FD $13).

The former KSW champion is coming in against UFC vet Diego Ferreira. At this point, this matchup reflects fighters in two different career trajectories with Ferreira having lost his last two, while Gamrot is coming off 2 wins in 2021 to bring his overall record to 19-1-0 (the lone loss was a very close and arguably a robbery vs Guram Kutzateladze). Gamrot has a lot of tools at his disposal whether the fight is on the feet or on the ground. Ferreira is going to have big issues with Gamrot’s wrestling capabilities despite having a competitive BJJ game with Gamrot. However, if Ferreira cannot avoid having an overly defensive grappling fight his gas tank is definitely a question. Gamrot is also going to have an advantage on the feet in this one, in what is a very good stylistic matchup for him. Gamrot was a bulldozer on the European scene and tonight is his opportunity to break into the rankings with a statement win over Diego Ferreira. Keep in mind that in all three of Gamrot’s UFC fights he’s had a performance bonus (1 Fight of the Night, 2 Performance of the Night), get ready to be entertained when these two step into the octagon!

MY UFC DFS PICK: Mateusz Gamrot (-188) (DK 9500) (FD $17) SECOND-ROUND TKO.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Raoni Barcelos (-350) (DK 9100) (FD $22) vs. Victor Henry (+275) (DK 7100) (FD $9).

So, Henry is coming in on short notice for his UFC debut against Barcelos, poor guy. This one will not be close, Barcelos has lost one fight since 2015, going 9-1 in that time span. Raoni will be looking to break back into the bantamweight rankings with a successful showing tonight against the newcomer. You never want to count people out too quick on their debut but this fight is not against just any UFC fighter, it’s against a fighter who could make a strong run at the top if a couple of his next fights go his way. Barcelos has dominated many different styles of fighters and has a very well-rounded combat background, stemming from his father’s influence in BJJ and wrestling. Surprisingly, Barcelos has let his hands fly and most of his career wins have come by way of knockout. In this fight, I’m going with the seasoned UFC vet with strong fundamentals over the UFC newcomer coming in on short notice.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Raoni Barcelos (-350) (DK 9100) (FD $22) UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND-ROUND KO).

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Chris Daukaus (5 ROUNDER) -138 (DK 8300) (FD $20) (Derrick Lewis works too, especially as a value play. Technically speaking, Daukaus has an edge but nobody in the current heavyweight division is particularly “skilled” other than a few exceptions like Tom Aspinall, Ciryl Gane or Alexander Romanov. Daukaus is not at their level, he has an edge over Lewis but as we know all it takes is one clean shot, one mistake from the opponent and Lewis can win the fight)

Stephen Thompson -250 (DK 9100) (FD $21) (Belal in my opinion is very overhyped and way in over his head. The UFC’s #1 can crusher hasn’t fought nearly the level of competition to justify the respect the UFC is giving him in this matchup. Belal is generally good in most aspects of MMA but he’s had trouble competing against top guys like Leon Edwards. We saw one round of that fight and knew Belal didn’t stand a chance. Wonderboy is going to be able to do what Leon did with extra kicks. Belal won’t be able to handle the distance (range) strikes and Belal doesn’t have Burns’ takedown ability to challenge Thompson on the ground. Barring any major surprises, this is Thompson’s fight.)

Darren Elkins GPP +162 (DK 7400) (FD $12)

Amanda Lemos -350 (DK 9500) (FD $23)

Gerald Meerschaert -220 (DK 9000) (FD $20) (Grapple Heavy fight, Meerschaert is more of a DK play)

Ricky Simon -300 (DK 9200) (FD $21)

Justin Tafa -334 (DK 9400) (FD $22) (Tafa came in overweight but Hunsucker is not a UFC calibre fighter at all. Hunsucker is worth the risk with the weight miss at his price in deep deep GPP formats but honestly, Tafa should still have no issue getting the win here)

Charles Jourdain -188 (DK 8900) (FD $19)

Macy Chiasson GPP +140 (DK 7800) (FD $14) (I liked Chiasson a lot better before she came in overweight. I like her a lot less now and took out a few of the entries I had with her, but not all of them since she can still provide some good value.)

Don’Tale Mayes -200 (DK 8600) (FD $19) (Josh Parisian sucks)

Jordan Leavitt -125 (DK 8200) (FD $16) (This is probably a better matchup for DK DFS since I see a lot of grappling here and less striking but with Leavitt you never really know what kind of fight you’re gonna get. Highlight reel beauty or 15-grapplefest)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 5 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I usually employ a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!