Tag:

Featured

Al’s Fight Night Deep Dive for UFC on ABC 5

Allan Fabrykant 2 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

UFC on ABC 5

EMMETT V TOPURIA

After a crazy Vegas Fight Night Card last week, we are headed to the Sunshine State for today’s action! Today’s card will kick off at 11:30 AM ET. Be sure to tune into ABC to catch all of today’s crazy action. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 13 fights that will end with a top 5 featherweight fight with a lot of title implications. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 11:30 AM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both usually active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC on ABC 5 Emmett vs Topuria.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Jack Jenkins vs Jamall Emmers

After a crazy KO with 30 seconds left in his DWCS appearance, Jenkins followed it up with a clean 15-minute fight against Don Shainis, which showed off Jenkins’ top-notch striking, wrestling and grappling. Jenkins did an excellent job at switching up his striking during his UFC debut. He mixed in kicks, body shots and headshots to the point that Shainis was clearly overwhelmed. Tonight, Jenkins has his biggest test yet against Jamall Emmers. Emmers has had a shaky road in the UFC, going 2-2 after what looked like a strong start with a questionable split decision loss against Giga Chikadze and a win on the regional scene against Cory Sandhagen. Unfortunately, for Emmers, his consistency issues at the top level make it hard for me to be that confident in him in this spot and with Jenkins coming in ready after a big win and as an underdog. Especially after Emmers had some struggles on the scales yesterday.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Jack Jenkins SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Trevor Peek vs. Chepe Mariscal

Trevor Peek has that Alabama power. We saw this in his UFC debut against Erick Gonzalez. All Peek has to do is have on clean connection, and Mariscal will be wobbly. This is a very tough matchup for Mariscal in his UFC debut, and having seen what he has done in the regional scene, honestly, he is very inconsistent. Some nights Mariscal can lay people out, and others, it looks like he doesn’t even belong in the cage. That being said, he has picked up some weaker competition than Peek and has struggled, so I don’t have a lot of confidence in Mariscal in this spot. On top of that, with the odds where they are. I really like Peek as both a parlay piece and a Daily Fantasy play.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Trevor Peek FIRST ROUND KO.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Randy Brown vs. Wellington Turman

This one seems like a bit of a mismatch. Randy Brown is a top 20 welterweight, and Turman usually fights at Middleweight. Despite the fact that it’s Turman making the cut, Brown still has the taller frame and the longer reach. I think Brown is a level above Turman when it comes to his natural skill. I will note that Turman is a BJJ black belt, and Randy is a Brown Belt but other than that, it seems as though Brown will have an advantage everywhere else. Turman is actually one of the UFC fighters who absorbs more strikes per minute than he lands, and Randy actually lands more strikes per minute (4.39 vs 2.92) and absorbs fewer strikes per minute when compared to Turman (3.30 vs 3.79). At this level, those numbers are a significant difference. The biggest red flag for Turman is that he almost lost to Sam Alvey… c’mon man. In all seriousness though, Turman hasn’t impressed me too much and against a fighter like Randy Brown, I think Turman will end up struggling a lot.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Randy Brown SECOND-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Josh Emmett 5 ROUNDER (BIG UNDERDOG CALL)

Amanda Ribas

Gillian Robertson

Sedriques Dumas FADE (Bad vs worse)

Joshua Van (BIG UNDERDOG CALL)

Mateusz Rębecki

Neil Magny

Bruno Silva

Gabriel Santos

Justin Tafa

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

Trevor Peek to Finish (KO) -425

Randy Brown -120

(possible addition) Justin Tafa to Finish (KO) +105

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (June 23)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s full-slate Friday! Tonight we have a 10-game slate of MLB DFS. This slate brings us back to Coors, but there will also be other areas for offense. We have solid pitchers in great spots also that we’ll want to take full advantage of. The biggest thing with this slate will be weather though. Many games are at risk of delay/ppd.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Chris Bassitt vs. Oakland Athletics

Chris Bassitt is coming off 2 starts that he probably wants to forget. He did however face 2 of the better lineups in all of baseball in Texas and Baltimore. Tonight, he’ll face a much inferior lineup in the Oakland Athletics. The Athletics have been brutal vs. righties this season. They have a 26% k rate and an OPS of just .640.

This sets up for Bassitt to have a nice rebound performance. We’ve seen him dial it up to get upwards of 41 DK points this season. This matchup speaks for itself and we should see more of a ceiling game for Bassitt than a floor game.

Brayan Bello vs. Chicago White Sox

To save a little bit of money on pitching today, I’m going to drop down to Brayan Bello. Bello is coming off his best start of the season. Against the Yankees, Bello struck out 8 across 7 innings and allowed just 1 ER. It added up to a 29 DK-point outing for the young right-hander.

The matchup today vs. the White Sox brings Bello a very similar upside. The White Sox are not built to succeed vs. righties. They have a modest k rate of 23%, but they also have just a .670 OPS and a .290 wOBA. Bellow should be able to navigate pretty easily through this lineup tonight.

Other pitchers I like tonight will be Kodai Senga vs. Philly, Taijuan Walker vs. New York, and Kyle Gibson vs. Seattle.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Los Angeles Angels vs. Kyle Freeland

If you’ve followed me, you know I try my hardest to avoid recommending Coors stacks. Not because they aren’t good plays, but more so to provide you with other options. I just can’t avoid this matchup tonight. The Angels are really solid vs. lefties and today they’ll face one of the worst in the game. Kyle Freeland has been really bad over the last month.

Over the last month, Freeland has a 5.67 ERA and has allowed a nearly 36% flyball rate. He’s attackable every single outing and this is one of the more attackable spots against him all year. We want the righties here. Righties have significantly better numbers vs. Freeland this season

I’m going to get to the obvious first. Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani are in play. They are always in play. They are 2 of the best hitters in the game. Their prices however tonight are extremely restrictive. Ohtani is $6.7k and Trout is $6.5k. just insane.

The 2 guys I really like here outside of Trout and Ohtani are Brandon Drury and Hunter Renfroe. While neither guy has really crushed lefties this season, both historically have. This is an elite matchup for both of them. After those 2, I’ll look to add Chad Wallace, Taylor Ward, and Luis Rengifo. This entire lineup today is in play.

San Diego Padres vs. Patrick Corbin

For a while there, it looked like Patrick Corbin was starting to pitch with some competence. Those days are long gone! Over the last month, Corbin has been back to being the old Corbin. His ERA is pushing 6 and he’s back to giving up what we love to see, hard contact. His hard-hit rate over the last month is a massive 42%.

Corbin’s walks are also up, which has led to a WHIP of nearly 2.00. If the Padres show some patience tonight, they’ll put up a massive number. I’m going to prioritize righties here. Corbin’s numbers are way worse against them.

My 2 favorite bats here are going to Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis. Both guys have absolutely crushed lefties this season. Machado has a .422 wOBA and Tatis has a .488. With Tatis, he’s shown some real power vs. them as well with a .420 ISO. If I had to pick between the 2 of them, I’d go Machado due to price.

Machado is significantly lower tonight and that extra cash will go a long way. Another bat that I’ll prioritize here will be Gary Sanchez. He’s been a stud vs. lefties this season, with a .429 ISO and a .385 wOBA. Other bats to get here will be Ha-Seong Kim and Xander Bogaerts.

Other stacks I like today are Toronto vs. James Kaprielian and Texas vs. Luis Severino.

MLB DFS Summary

We’ll want to keep an eye on the weather tonight. There are a ton of games at risk of t-storms. That said, the stacks/pitchers I laid out are weather-risk-free.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting Premium

Travelers Championship Picks & Advice: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

TPC River Highlands host this week for our Travelers Championship Picks

Back-to-back winners! What a US Open we had, most notably selecting Wyndham Clark available in some markets as long as 80/1. This marked our second win in as many weeks, having also tipped Nick Taylor at 66/1 in the RBC Canadian Open. Likewise beyond Clark, we had additional winners from the week. We selected both Xander and Rickie in the First-Round leader market at 35/1 and 66/1 respectively. Additionally, Fowler secured us a full place payout and Xander a reduced place payout in 10th. Patrick Rodgers also locked in a Top 40 win for us, in an outstanding week of tipping! This now takes our PGA Tour record in 2023 to a whopping +718 units and a return on investment of 80%. However, there is no rest for the wicked as we go for a threepeat with our Travelers Championship Picks!

https://twitter.com/deepdivegolf/status/1671147586655522817?s=20

Course Analysis for our Travelers Championship Picks

TPC River Highlands plays host this week. The course has hosted this tournament in Cromwell, Connecticut since 1984. As such, we have a wealth of data to go on here and should be able to really narrow our player pool as a result.

Firstly, this provides quite a different test to what we have seen recently. TPC River Highlands is a narrow course with heavy rough and tree-lined fairways. It is one of the most correlated courses between driving accuracy and predicting future success.

Additionally, we will see a disproportionate number of shots under 150 yards this week. At just 6,852 yard par 70, this makes logical sense. Greens are again bentgrass overseeded with poa annua, so recent putting performance should be a fair indicator of how players will handle themselves on these surfaces.

Obviously, the recipe to success here has been relatively simple. Find the fairway, hit a good wedge shot, and make the putt. Scoring typically sits in the -15 to -20 range for the winner. We expect little different this week.

Course Comps to TPC River Highlands

Unsurprisingly, other courses with heavy weighting to driving accuracy and tree lined fairways display a good correlation to TPC River Highlands. We can also look to other Pete Dye designs for guidance, as these do all tend to play quite similar.

For our Travelers Championship picks, courses like Sedgefield and TPC Sawgrass provide obvious similarities. Certainly TPC Potomac provides very similar metrics, as does Austin Country Club. Obviously, the latter being a little more difficult being the host of the WGC Matchplay Championship.

Finally, the recent RBC Canadian Open course Oakdale Golf and Country Club looks very similar. That course featured thick rough, lots of wedge shots, and bentgrass putting surfaces. Obviously, this ticks the box nicely on both a course comp and, additionally, some signs of recent form.

Weather for our Travelers Championship Picks

There does appear to be a decent weather edge developing for our Travelers Championship Picks. Currently, Thursday will have light rain throughout the day. Winds should be steady between 6-9 mph all day. Gusts will increase from 16-18mph in the morning to 20-22 mph in the afternoon.

Friday looks to be where any edge may develop. Rain looks likely overnight and Friday AM winds look very calm. This should see Friday AM provide some of the best scoring conditions. Certainly, winds are forecast to increase as they day goes on. Winds should peak around midday, with prevailing winds at 12-14mph and gusts up to 23-27mph.

We predict the weather edge will finish up between 0.5-0.75 strokes on average. Obviously, this is not insignificant. However, it should be noted there is a small chance of fog and thunderstorms developing Friday AM.

Certainly for purposes of DFS, I would suggest a construction of 30% Thursday PM/Friday AM with 10% the contrarian Thursday AM/Friday PM and the remaining 60% of your lineups being mixed.

Travelers Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

Tom Kim
2pt E/W +4500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Russell Henley – Your Travelers Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pt E/W +5500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Denny McCarthy
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +300 (Bet365)

Aaron Rai
1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 (Bet365)

Andrew Putnam
0.5pt E/W +15000 (Bet365/William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +475 (Bet365)

Mark Hubbard – Your Travelers Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +550 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +200 (Bet365)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
0.5pt E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 40 +240 (TAB)

[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1687359644619-adc9-864?id=7e6975f0-ca03-407d-9cde-6f95aacc3023″]

Summary

Finally, thank you reading our 2023 Travelers Championship picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: To celebrate our BIG win at the US Open and RBC Canadian Open, we are giving away a FREE one month trial for WinDaily Gold Membership! This is a LIMITED offer, so get in quick!

Obviously this includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (June 21)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Wednesday and that brings us a split slate of baseball. This article will be focused on the 7-game slate of MLB DFS that is starting at 12:10 EST. This slate brings us some exciting teams in the Reds, Orioles, and Rays and also brings us some bottom feeders in the Rockies, Royals and Detroit. There will be plenty of options on both the pitching front and stacking front.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Zac Gallen vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers are solidifying a spot on the “Use Pitchers Against” list. They continuously strike out a ton and have one of the most inconsistent lineups in the game. Ryne Nelson, a much inferior starter to Gallen, was able to strikeout 6 Brewers over 5 innings of work. This sets up for Zac Gallen to have one of his vintage outings, an outing just like the one that he’s coming off against the Guardians.

Zac Gallen struck out 7 in that one and there’s little reason to think he can’t replicate that number or even increase upon it against a team that is striking out nearly 25% of the time against righties this season. Gallen is my SP1 on this slate.

Andrew Abbott vs. Colorado Rockies

This pick comes with a smidge of risk. So far through 3 starts, Andrew Abbott is sporting a 0 ERA and has been over 17 DK points in all 3. He comes into this matchup today against the Rockies facing a team that for all intents and purposes has been awful against lefties. Combined, they have a 26% strikeout rate vs. lefties and a wOBA of .284. In theory, Abbott should be able to walk right through this lineup.

There are some warning signs though of regression for Abbott. He’s giving up a ton of flyballs, a ton of hard hits, and few strikeouts. His xFIP is a full 5 runs higher than his 0 ERA. There’s going to be some negative regression coming his way, I just don’t think it will be today vs. a team that struggles vs. lefties.

Other pitchers I like this afternoon are Brady Singer vs. Detroit and Julio Teheran vs. Arizona.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Cincinnati Reds vs. Connor Seabold

The surging first-place Cincinnati Reds won their tenth straight game last night and now hold a .5 game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers. Yes, you read that right. The Cincinnati Reds are in first place and there is no sign of them slowing down. Today they’ll get a cake matchup vs. Connor Seabold.

Over the last month, Seabold has pitched to a 5.76 ERA which is right in line with this 5.63 xFIP. We’re getting what we expect to be getting from the Rockies’ righthander. With Seabold, we won’t need to be overly concerned with splits. He’s been pretty bad vs. both sides of the play, with the righties having a slightly higher wOBA than the lefties.

I want to preface this by saying that the entire Reds lineup will be in play today. They scored 8 yesterday and I’m sure they’ll put up another crooked number today. Seabold has been bad and the Reds lineup has been dynamic. It sets up for another high-scoring day for the Big Red Machine. That said, I’m going to prioritize getting in Elly De La Cruz, TJ Friedl, and Jake Fraley.

All have excellent numbers vs. righties this season. Both De La Cruz and Fraley have ISO’s over .200 against righties. De La Cruz so far has shown way more competence as a left-handed hitter so he’s an absolute lock for me today. Other bats that are higher up on the priority list for me will be Joey Votto and Will Benson. Again though, everyone is in play.

Houston Astros vs. Tylor Megill

When the Mets let guys like Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker, and Seth Lugo go, it was with the notion that Tylor Megill would be able to step into the number 5 starter spot and do well. That hasn’t happened. It’s actually been the opposite. Over his last 5 starts, Megill has allowed 4 runs or more in the 3 of them. Over the last month, he has a slate-worse 6.75 ERA.

The thing that has killed him the most has been his control. He has a 4.76 BB/9 over his last 22 innings of work which has led to a 1.99 WHIP. You can’t be successful giving up that many passes and having a WHIP close to 2 screams bad. Megill has similar numbers to both sides of the plate so I won’t be overly concerned with splits.

I’ll start by saying this lineup has been extremely inconsistent. They scored 4 last night, but just 1 the night before. Even without Yordan Alvarez though, this lineup has some upside, even if they aren’t a sure thing. I’m going to look to get guys like Kyle Tucker, Yainer Diaz, and Jose Altuve into my lineups. Diaz has actually been the hottest hitter in this lineup over the last week. Over his last 26 AB, he has 9 hits and 3 homers. He’s also sporting an OPS of 1.077. That’s the highest on the team over that stretch.

After those 3, I’ll also look to get in Alex Bregman, Chas McCormick, and Jeremy Pena. This lineup today has the potential to put up a large number as long as they are patient with Megill.

Other stacks I like today are Toronto vs. Sandy Alcantera, Kansas City vs. Matthew Boyd, and the New York Mets vs. Christian Javier.

MLB DFS Summary

This slate is shaping up to be a fun one. We have the most exciting team in baseball right now in the Reds with a cake matchup on paper. We also have some pitchers in smash spots like Zac Gallen.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (June 19)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Monday and that means we have somewhat of a shortened slate. Tonight we are blessed with a 7-game slate of MLB DFS. We have a handful of top pitchers on this slate. We also have a handful of pitchers that stacking against is a usual play. It’s shaping up to be a small but solid slate.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

James Paxton vs. Minnesota Twins

Oft-injured James Paxton is finally healthy again and boy is he pitching well. Over the last month, Paxton has just been phenomenal. He’s pitched to an ERA of just over 3.4, but what’s most important is that he’s been racking up the strikeouts. Over that same period, Paxton has a nearly 34% k rate. There’s no one on this slate that has the K upside that he’s been showing.

What helps is that he’ll be facing a Twins lineup that has struggled mightily vs. southpaws this season. The Twins have a 28% k rate vs. lefties this season wOBA under .300. This all sets up extremely well for Paxton to continue his stretch of really solid pitching. He’s reached at least 20 DK points in 5 of his 6 starts this season. He should add to that number tonight. He’s also still under $10k.

Merrill Kelly vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Another pitcher under $10k tonight that’s in a really solid spot is Merrill Kelly of the Arizona Diamondbacks. He gets a strong matchup tonight vs. the Milwaukee Brewers. This has been a strike-out-happy team all season. Against righties this season, the Brewers have a 25% strikeout rate. They’ve also done little in the way of damage as well as they have an OPS under .700 and a wOBA just a shade over .300.

Kelly for his part has pitched extremely well this season. We have to go all the way back to April 6 to find an outing where he was in single-digit DK points. Over his last 5 starts, he’s been over 15 DK points in all. With how well he’s been pitching, he should be able to navigate this lineup with relative ease tonight.

Other pitchers that I like tonight will be Hunter Brown vs. the all too disappointing Mets and Corbin Burnes vs. Arizona Diamondbacks. Personally, I’ll be sticking with the Paxton/Kelly combo in all my lineups.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Cincinnati Reds vs. Austin Gomber

The pick on Austin Gomber show heads to Cincinnati tonight. We’ll need to keep an eye on the weather on this one but if it plays, it’s an absolute smash spot for the Reds. Austin Gomber has been horrific this season. He boasts an ERA over 7 and if we dial that back to just the past 30 days, it balloons to nearly 8.5. Over his past 30 days, Gomber has allowed 7 homers and 10 barrels in just 22 innings of work. Hitters have a 46% hard-hit rate vs. him.

He’s not fooling anyone currently and until he figures it out on the mound, we’ll want to attack him at any chance we get. I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits. Both sides of the plate have been crushing. Surprisingly though, lefties have been battering him a smidge more as they have a .447 wOBA vs. him and a .333 ISO. All hands on deck here.

I’m going to start my Reds stack with Matt McLain and Spencer Steer. Both guys have crushed lefties this season. In 34 plate appearances, McLain has a .456 wOBA and a .294 ISO. The youngster is going to be the heart and soul of this team going forward for a long time to come and I’m going to make sure he’s in my lineup tonight.

Steer has also been really solid, with a .363 wOBA and a .250 ISO. Steer also brings in the element of stolen bases for us as he’s up to 6 on the year. He homered yesterday and with how bad Gomber has been, a homer in back-to-back games is not out of the question. Other bats to include here are going to be anyone that makes the lineup. I’m all in on this lineup as long as this game plays.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Drew Smyly

Up until about a few weeks ago, Drew Smyly had actually been a serviceable pitcher. He was limiting teams to only a run or 2 each game. That has changed over the last few outings. He’s not gone 4 straight games with allowing at least 3 opponents to score. In his last outing against this same Pirates team, Smyly gave up 5 ER on 3 homers.

He’s back to his old bad ways of pitching and we’ll want to take advantage of that. Like Gomber, I’m going not going to be overly worried about splits. Smyly too has been worse against lefties so they’ll stay in play. That said, I’m going to focus more on the righties here.

The two bats I want here first are going to be Connor Joe and Rodolfo Castro. Both guys have been far and away the best hitters in this lineup vs. lefties. Joe has a .441 wOBA and Castro has a .457. Both guys also have ISO’s over .300 against southpaws this season. If we look at pitch selection, Smyly throws his sinker more than 40% of the time vs. righties. Both guys also crush lefty sinkers.

Another bat in this lineup that crushes lefty sinkers is Carlos Santana. Santana has a .438 wOBA vs. them over the past few years. He’s also coming into this one as the Pirates’ best hitter over the last week. He’s 7 for 23 over the last week with 2 bombs and a .929 OPS. Other bats I like here will be Andrew McCutchen, Bryan Reynolds, and Ke’Bryan Hayes. Only Joe, Castro, and Santana are priorities here for me though.

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Cubs vs. Bido and the Astros vs. Max Scherzer. Scherzer has been a huge disappointment and is coming off an embarrassing out vs. the Yankees.

MLB DFS Summary

My favorite stack in the Reds tonight carries some weather risk. There’s a potential for a PPD there, but if they play, they have a ton of upside. This has the makings for an odd slate tonight. A handful of pitchers carry modest risk of blowing up, but can also dominate the team they playing.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

UFC Premium

Al’s Fight Night Deep Dive for UFC on ESPN 47

Allan Fabrykant 2 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

UFC on ESPN 47

VETTORI V CANNONIER

After a trip up north which saw Canadians go 6 for 6 at home, we are back state-side in Las Vegas, Nevada for tonight’s UFC Fight Night Card! Today’s card will kick off at 7:00 PM ET. There are some incredible matchups on tonight’s card, and the UFC has an action-packed lineup tonight on ESPN. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 12 fights that will end with a top 5 middleweight fight with a lot of title implications. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 7:00 PM ET

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC on ESPN 47 Vettori vs Cannonier

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Lucas Almeida vs Pat Sabatini

Sabatini has logged a few fights in his UFC career and begun to string together some wins before a brutal KO 1st round KO at the hands of Damon Jackson where Sabatini ate a kick and was never able to recover. Almeida on the other hand is an alumni of the Contender Series, and although his fight there did not go to plan he had a very successful UFC debut against Mike Triziano a year ago where he secured a third-round finish and a fight of the night bonus. That whole fight from Almeida was excellent and despite getting dropped by Triziano in the first, he was able to come back and get knockdowns in both round two and then in round three which led to the finish. I think this fight will be close but from what I have seen out of both fighters, Almeida is stronger on the feet and will be able to trade more in the pocket, whereas Sabatini will try to take the fight into the ground and grind out a decision win. Although Almeida’s takedown defence hasn’t been tested too much throughout his UFC career, I think his extremely high output will end up overwhelming Sabatini early and will eventually open up a spot for the KO.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Lucas Almeida SECOND-ROUND KO.

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joaquim Silva

This matchup is a bit of a joke. There is an extreme difference in the level of competition between these two. Tsarukyan is a top ten lightweight who has the potential to compete for a belt while Joaquim is not even top 50 and has fought twice in the last four years. On top of that, Silva is 4-3 in his UFC career with losses to Ricky Glenn and Vinc Pichel. Tsarukyan is going to put on a show today, and my only question on this fight is how and when Tsarukyan is going to finish the fight.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Arman Tsarukyan FIRST ROUND KO.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Manuel Torres vs. Nikolas Motta

Motta looked promising coming out of the Contender Series but he was lacking a killer instinct, it was even mentioned by Dana White before Motta got signed that he had opportunities to finish and let them slide. Torres on the other hand is the exact opposite, he’s an aggressive fighter who doesn’t mind trading in the pocket in search of a knockout. As was seen in Torres’ Contender Series fight and his UFC debut. I think much like the Almeida fight, Torres’ high output will simply overwhelm Motta and I don’t see this one getting past the first round, depending on Motta’s durability, I can see the fight ending earlier as well. Also of note, Torres is extremely well rounded, if Motta ends up defending the right hook well, Torres is more than capable of taking Motta to the ground.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Manuel Torres SECOND-ROUND KO (possible FIRST-ROUND KO).

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Marvin Vettori 5 ROUNDER

Christian Leroy Duncan

Tereza Bleda FADE

Muslim Salikhov

Alessandro Costa

Cristian Quinonez

Denys Bondar

Ronnie Lawrence

Modestas Bukauskas

SUMMARY:

PARLAY OF THE DAY

Arman Tsarukyan to Finish (KO) -425

Alessandro Costa to Finish (KO) -120

Manuel Torres to Finish (KO) +105

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (June 16)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s full-slate Friday and tonight we have a massive 14-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. This slate brings us a lack of high-end pitching, but it does bring us some competent starters that are in good spots. We also have a healthy amount of bats that are in solid spots so we should see some offense tonight.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Michael Kopech vs. Seattle Mariners

The former top prospect for the Chicago White Sox is finally living up to his potential.. Since May 12, Michael Kopech has 3 starts where he hasn’t allowed an ER. That’s over the course of 6 starts. Over those 6 starts, he’s also had no less than 5 strikeouts in any game, with 2 of the starts being in double digits. From a DK standpoint, Kopech has reached into the upper 20’s in 3 of his last 5 starts. The 2 starts that he didn’t, he was still in the upper teens.

Tonight, he’ll have the luxury of facing off against a Mariners lineup that for the most part has been extremely disappointing. With how well Kopech has been pitching and how inconsistent the Mariners have been, this sets up nicely for Kopech to have a solid night tonight.

Taijuan Walker vs. Oakland Athletics

After a nice stretch of baseball and their reverse boycott, the Oakland Athletics have come back down to earth and have lost back-to-back games. After tonight, it should be 3 straight losses as they face the streaking Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies have won 8 of their last 10 games and show no signs of slowing down. They’ll turn the ball over to Taijuan Walker tonight.

Walker is coming off back-to-back dominant starts and hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in a start since May 17. He’s pitching some of his best baseball in a Phillies uniform and a date with the A’s shouldn’t slow him down. Walker is mostly a splitter pitcher as he throws it more than 30% of the time to both sides of the plate. Up and down the lineup, this is a pitch that the A’s struggle with. He should haven’t a dominant outing.

Other pitchers that I’m interested in tonight are going to be Rich Hill vs. Milwaukee and Julio Teheran vs. Pittsburgh. The Brewers have been awful vs. lefties this season and there is no lefty craftier than Hill. He very well could walk through this lineup tonight. On the other side of the game, Teheran has been brilliant since being recalled by the Brewers. Although the Pirates have been good this year, Teheran has a shot to really dominate them tonight.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Atlanta Braves vs. Dinelson Lamet

We’ll be using the Braves often the rest of the way out. They are as good of a lineup in baseball as there is. Up and down the lineup they have studs and with a matchup against Dinelson Lamet tonight, they should crush. Lamet has struggled mightily this season as his ERA for the year is north of 10. When you’re talking about a pitcher in double digits in terms of ERA, that’s bad. Since being recalled at the end of May, Lamet has allowed a hard-hit rate of nearly 40%.

Although he’s only allowed 1 homer in the 11 innings, it’s only a matter of time before more balls leave the park when you combine his hard-hit rate and his nearly 37% fly ball rate. We have no reason to be selective with any specific side of the plate tonight as Lamet has been horrendous against both righties and lefties.

The obvious plays here are Ronald Acuna and Matt Olson. They are the 2 premier hitters in this lineup and have as much as upside as anyone else tonight. They’ll cost us a pretty penny though. If you play them together, they’re going to eat up nearly $13k of your budget on DK. The not-so-obvious plays tonight from the Braves will be Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris, and Marcel Ozuna.

The three of them rank 2,3, and 4 in terms of wRC over the last week on the Braves. They are also significantly cheaper than both Acuna and Olson. With all of that being said, this entire lineup is going to be in play tonight. They have a current implied run total of close to 6.5. This game is in Atlanta, not Colorado. Expect the Braves to score a ton tonight.

Kansas City Royals vs. Patrick Sandoval

Patrick Sandoval is having a season to forget. His strikeouts are down nearly 3 per 9 innings and his ERA is the highest it’s been since all the way back in the shortened season of 2020. If we look at what he’s done more recently, he’s been even worse. Over the last month, his ERA is over 7.5 and he’s allowing a ton of hard contact at 38%. He’s also allowing a ton of runners with a WHIP of 2.11.

If the Royals can be patient tonight, they’ll get some runners on. It’s simple math, more runners equals more opportunities for runs. Another reason for this route with the Royals is that they’re cheap. Outside of this Bobby Witt and Salvador Perez, there’s a ton of value in this lineup.

Like the Braves, we have some obvious plays and those are going to be Witt and Perez. They both stand to do well against Sandoval tonight. I’m going to look to some cheap guys though to help afford some of those expensive Braves. Both Maikel Garcia and Edward Olivares have done well vs. southpaws this season.

Garcia has a wOBA of .388 in 53 plate appearances and Olivares has a .353 wOBA in 116 plate appearances. MJ Melendez is also in play as he’s good vs. lefties and Sandoval has actually been slightly worse against lefties this season. He’s just $3.1k on DK tonight. Again, there’s a lot of value in this Royals lineup to get in the expensive Braves.

Other stacks I like tonight are going to be the Cardinals vs. Tylor Megill and the Phillies vs. JP Sears. The Phillies are red hot and are facing a pitcher in Sears that should see some negative regression. His xFIP is nearly 3 runs higher than his ERA. The Phillies should accelerate that regression tonight with how well they’ve been hitting.

MLB DFS Summary

This slate tonight has a little bit of everything. Solid pitching and solid spots for offense. There are many different routes to points tonight and the ones I laid out are my favorite.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA

U.S. Open Picks & Advice: All you need to know about the 123rd U.S. Open

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

How does Los Angeles Country Club play? The exclusive LACC plays host to our US Open Picks.

What a week at the RBC Canadian Open! Nick Taylor was included in our selections at 66/1, causing EPIC celebrations within the WinDaily Sports Discord akin to the 18th green celebrations on course. The dramatic victory and breaking of 60+ years of hoodoo managed to overshadow the PIF news and the PGA/LIV Golf merger momentarily. There is no rest though, as it is another big week with our US Open picks!

Unlike the drought of Canadian citizens winning their national open, the 66/1 win was simply a continuation of another fantastic year for our selections. We rarely give out match-up plays. However, we saw an edge in Round 4 and we went 6/6 for our selections. This follows the same at the PGA Championship, when we last gave out some Round 4 match-ups and duly went 4/4. We have now shown a return on investment in 2023 of +69% and are up +562.57 units. Profit is already guaranteed in 2023 for those who have followed!

https://twitter.com/deepdivegolf/status/1669011871264034816?s=20

Los Angeles Country Club plays host to the 123rd US Open. This is the first time LA have hosted a US Open since 1940 and the inaugural US Open at this course. In fact, there have been no professional events held at this exclusive club. There have been amateur events, namely a Pac-12 Championship and Walker Cup, but this course will play so different to those events I think any perceived information from those tournaments can be largely discarded. Read on to find what we believe are the key metrics to target this week.

Los Angeles Country Club Course Analysis

The first note is this course, on paper, plays very long. A 7,421 yard would not be uncommon for a par 72. We instead find a par 70, with 5 par 3s and just 3 par 5s. However, I do think the distance needs to come with a few caveats.

Chiefly, the conditions are extremely firm and fast. This will enhance rollout, especially for those with a lower ball-flight. Where I do see driving distance being an asset is the large number of approach shots over 200+ yards. Naturally, those with increased driving distance tend to have higher clubhead speed and therefore can use a higher loft on a long approach shot. Additionally, with some pretty mean and thick rough this week. A semblance of strength will be beneficial for your US Open picks digging the ball out after missed fairways and greens.

https://twitter.com/BradFaxon/status/1668806642765365249?s=20

Much has been made of how wide these fairways are. Again, I think this requires a little more of a deep dive. Fairways are heavily sloped in many instances. In addition to the firm and fast conditions, they will play a lot narrower than on first sight.

With multiple long par 3s and some big par 4/5s, long iron approach will be imperative to success. Again, do note that of the long par 3s some significant elevation changes do occur. The 280 yard 7th hole has an exposed front and will allow players to roll the ball up to the green. The 290+ yard 11th par 3 is also severely downhill.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcIcBilkJ9k&t=614s

Finally, these greens will be hard to hold. The course is as close to “links” like in nature that you may ever find at the US Open. The ability to rebound from bogeys and save par will be essential for our US Open picks.

What type of golfer suits LACC?

Overall, it looks that this will provide a stern all round examination of a golfer’s game. That starts from SG: OTT. Certainly, I do expect a situation where driving distance take precedence. But, ideally, this also comes with a modicum of accuracy. I believe an average driving distance of at least 295 yards is essential.

I have leaned heavily on long approach for the US Open picks this week. We may even see players resorting to irons and fairways woods to try hold these fairways in certain spots. This will further emphasize the need for elite long iron approach.

Around the green receives the weakest ranking of all the mainstream SG metrics. There will be some luck involved, with the bermudagrass rough around the greens so thick. Also, the long grass takes some of the skill out of such chips. However, I do believe bunker play could be a factor and there are some runoff areas which will produce tight lies.

Finally, I do weight putting a little higher than usual for our US Open picks. Particularly, this is true for bentgrass putting. Inevitably, every player will need to make their share of putts. Birdie opportunities will need to be taken; pars will need to be saved.

Course Comps for our US Open Picks

From what we have been able to discern from the information available, this course does look to be quite a unique test for our US Open picks.

Elements to Augusta National are observed. There is some more width of the tee than we would usually see at a US Open venue, as well as bentgrass greens. Naturally, with the sloped fairways I can see parallels and that rings true for the Plantation Course at Kapalua as well. Plantation also requires a disproportionate number of shots over 200+ yards and under 100 yards. I like that combination, as I believe on top of the long approach shots some closer iron shots may be required if finding trouble off-the-tee.

Other US Open venues of Shinnecock, Chambers Bay, and Erin Hills. Neighbouring Riviera Country Club is also a George Thomas design and holds some parallels.

Finally, I think Scottish Open host the Renaissance Club may be a sneaky parallel. The winning score here has been -7 and -11 previously depending on setup and wind. Although in a links style, it is not a true links course. Exposed and rugged, with undulating fairways and firm conditions, the course appears to strike some similarities to LACC.

Weather for our US Open Picks

The weather still looks to be developing this week and I will provide a final update Wednesday evening in the WinDaily Sports Discord.

Overall, conditions promise to present low humidity and warm temperatures. The course should take little time to crisp up and play very firm and fast in the afternoons particularly.

Both Thursday and Friday currently look to hold a similar outlook with very calm conditions in the morning and winds picking up in the afternoon. The morning should also prevent mildly softer conditions, before the greens firm up in the combination of sun, low humidity, and breeze. As it stands, there looks to be slightly higher and more persistent winds Friday afternoon compared to Thursday.

This pattern looks to continue into the weekend, with winds gusting up to 20-25mph in the afternoons.

Given the above course analysis and predicted weather, I’m projecting a typical US Open winning score of -6 to -9 for our US Open Picks.

US Open Picks

We have 6 headline selections this week. I’ve also included 5 longshot bombs to consider. However, you’ll notice a heavily reduced win stake. The win stake is mainly to take advantage of the generous place terms, and emphasis is on the Top 20/40 options. Selections are weighted accordingly in the below suggested staking.

Headliners: Suggested Staking

Patrick Cantlay
4pts E/W +1400 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

Xander Schauffele – Your US Open Picks Favourite Headliner
2.5pts E/W +1800 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

Tony Finau
2.5pts E/W +2800 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

Justin Rose
2pts E/W +3500 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

Rickie Fowler – Your US Open Picks Best Value Headliner
2pts E/W +6000 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

Wyndham Clark
2pts E/W +6000 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1686674490596-adc9-226?id=049229b1-526f-4653-9b80-e1dbbbe058b2″]

Longshot Bombs: Suggested Staking

Ryan Fox – Your US Open Picks Favourite Longshot Bomb
1pt E/W +12500 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +550 (TAB)

Kurt Kitayama
0.25pts E/W +17500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +250 (TAB)

Patrick Rodgers
0.25pts E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +170 (Bet365)

Adam Schenk – Your US Open Picks Best Value Longshot Bomb
0.25pts E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +190 (Bet365)

Sepp Straka
0.25pts E/W +25000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +190 (Bet365)

[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1686675020434-adc9-981?id=bb07915b-4994-4c09-bd58-85c4c1cfc1b9″]

Summary

Thank you reading our 2023 US Open picks. For an article with some insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: To celebrate our BIG win at the RBC Canadian Open, we are giving away a FREE one month trial for WinDaily Gold Membership! This is a LIMITED offer, so get in quick!

Includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (June 12)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Monday and that means we have a smaller slate of MLB DFS. Tonight we’ll have a 7-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. At first glance, this looks like an extremely fun slate. We have a handful of pitchers in monster spots and we also have a whole bunch of spots for bats that like they can explode for a large amount of runs.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Zach Eflin vs. Oakland Athletics

I don’t know if I’ll ever feel comfortable paying $11k for Zach Eflin. He’s not a pitcher that will blow us away with 12 k’s on any given or even 8-9 for that matter. That said, the pitcher that garnered the biggest free agency signing in Tampa Bay Rays history is in a terrific spot tonight against the Oakland Athletics and has also shown some serious upside in his new home.

In his last outing vs. Minnesota (a team that just slaughtered Kevin Gausman), Eflin went 6 strong innings while striking out 9. That led him to a nearly 35-point outing. He should have an easier go of it tonight vs. the A’s. The projected lineup tonight for the A’s has a 27% strikeout rate vs. righties this season and just a .305 wOBA. He’s going to take up a large chunk of our salary cap, but what a spot for the Ray’s ace tonight.

Jesus Luzardo vs. Seattle Mariners

Another pitcher in a solid spot tonight is Jesus Luzardo. He too is coming off a really solid outing. Against the hapless Royals, Luzardo went 7 deep and struck out 8 while allowing just an ER. The 33 DK points he achieved were a season-high. He’ll get the luxury of facing off a seriously disappointing Mariners lineup. This is a Mariners lineup that has really struggled vs. southpaws this season.

Tonight’s projected lineup for the Mariners has a nearly 32% strikeout rate vs. lefties this season. They have 4 regulars in the lineup that strikeout rates over 30% against them. This brings us some serious upside for Luzardo tonight. It also helps that Luzardo has been really good over the last month. His 35% strikeout rate over the last month leads every single pitcher on tonight’s slate. Strikeouts are king when it comes to MLB DFS and Luzardo has a chance to get a large number of them tonight.

James Paxton vs. Colorado Rockies

Wait, another pitcher in a fantastic spot today! James Paxton, the oft-injured pitcher for the Red Sox has been absolutely dealing so far this season. Over the last month, Paxton has been really solid. He’s pitched to a 3.86 ERA and has a 30% K rate. He’s been one of the better stories in all of baseball this season.

4 of Paxton’s last 5 outings have all been over 20 DK points. His lone bad outing was against an Angels team that has been really good vs. lefties. The Rockies on the other hand have not been good vs. southpaws. As a team, they have a nearly 26% strikeout rate on the year and have done little damage with their .285 wOBA. Take them out of Coors and the damage goes down even more.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Tampa Bay Rays vs. James Kaprielian

We should see some fireworks tonight in Oakland as the best team in baseball heads out West to take on the worst team in baseball. While both of these teams are in the bottom 4 in terms of team salary, the difference in talent level couldn’t be any larger. The Rays are coming into this one with 48 wins while the A’s have 50 losses. To make matters worse, the A’s will trot out James Kaprielian tonight.

Last time he faced the Rays he gave up 7 ER in his 5 innings of work. Kap has fared a little better of late, but he still has some really troubling numbers. He’s giving up a nearly 52% flyball rate and has just a 17% k rate. The Rays should be able to deliver another onslaught against a really bad pitcher. We’ll want the lefty Rays tonight as Kap has really struggled vs. them this season. He’s given up a .300 ISO and a .430 wOBA to lefties in 2023. I’m not going to shy away from the righties, but he’s fared much better vs. them.

Give me all the Wander Franco, Josh Lowe, and Luke Raley we can handle tonight. Should Francisco Mejia end up as the catcher tonight, he’ll make for a fine punt of the position as he’s just $2.3k. Back to Raley, Franco, and Lowe. All three have crushed righties this season. Franco and Lowe each have wOBA’s over .380 vs. them this season and ISO’s over .250. Homers from them, even in the spacious Oakland Coliseum are not out of the question tonight.

While I love the lefties here, you can’t ignore both Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena. Both guys have been key to the success of the Rays this season and have as much upside as anyone tonight

Texas Rangers vs. Tyler Anderson

Everything is bigger in Texas and my hope is that at the end of the night, the number of runs that the Rangers have scored is bigger than everyone else. Thanks to a matchup against Tyler Anderson, it’s extremely possible. Over the past month, Anderson has really struggled. His ERA is north of 6 and his xFIP is hovering right now around 6.

While he hasn’t been giving up many homers, the time is coming as he’s been allowing a 51% flyball rate. You can only play with fire so long and putting that many balls in the air is as risky as it is. It also doesn’t help that he’ll be facing one of the top teams in the league vs. lefties tonight. The Rangers have been solid vs. lefties all year long.

You know the drill here. Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Adolis Garcia are the lifeline of this offense. They’ll be locks in my Rangers stack every time out. With Seager, I’m not concerned one bit that it’s a L/L matchup. He’s been a beast this season against lefties with a .429 wOBA and a .256 ISO.

Another name we’ll want here is Rookie of the Year candidate Josh Jung. He too has amazing numbers vs. lefties this season. We can wrap up this stack with guys like Jonah Heim, Leody Taveras, and Mitch Garver. The Rangers should put up a huge night tonight.

Other stacks I really like tonight are going to be the Red Sox vs. Connor Seabold and the Giants vs. Matthew Liberatore. Also, don’t sleep on the Marlins vs. Bryce Miller. Miller has been bad the Marlins have been surprisingly very good this season.

MLB DFS Summary

This is shaping up to be one of my favorite slates of the season. There are options on both the pitching front and stacking front. We should see ownership spread out on both.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

UFC Premium

Al’s Fight Night Deep Dive UFC 289

Allan Fabrykant 2 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

UFC 289

NUNES V ALDANA

Tonight’s UFC action takes us all the way to Vancouver, Canada for the first UFC event in Canada in years! Today’s card will kick off at 7:00 PM ET. There are some incredible matchups on tonight’s card and the UFC is definitely bringing an incredible show to the Great White North. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 11 fights that will end with a highly anticipated return of Amanda Nunes as she defends the UFC women’s bantamweight title against Irene Aldana. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 7:00 PM ET

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 289 Nunes vs Aldana.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Charles Oliveira vs Beneil Dariush

Former Champ Charles Oliveira is looking to bounce back after a loss to current lightweight champ Islam Makachev. This is a tough matchup between two incredible competitors. Dariush on one hand has not lost in 5 years amassing an 8 fight win streak. While prior to his loss late last year, Oliveira held an incredible 11 fight winning streak that also lasted five years and included wins against the likes of Gaethje, Poirier, Ferguson and Chandler. To sum it all up, over the last five years, these two have amassed an incredible 19-1 record. This is the matchup we deserve as fans and to say it is close is an understatement. Dariush is coming into this fight as a slight favorite and I can understand why. Dariush is one of the best all-around fighters in the UFC having Black Belts in both BJJ and Muy Thai. That versatility is giving Dariush an edge in a lot of people’s minds. I am not on the same boat as many of those folks. I think that Oliveira will be the one pushing the action in this fight and when it comes to BJJ, Oliveira’s accolades completely overshadow those of Dariush. Oliveira is a third degree BJJ Black Belt like Dariush’s coach Romulo Barral and as we have seen in the Octagon Black Belts like Ferguson were getting torn apart on the mat. Unsurprisingly, Oliveira holds the record for the most Submission wins in UFC history as 16 well ahead of Miller and Maia at 11, Benny on the other hand only holds 5 Submission wins in the UFC. All this to say that when this fight goes to the ground, Benny is going to be treading in some deep water and in my opinion it will simply be too much for him to hande. Dariush’s only clear path to victory is if he keeps Oliveira at distance with kicks and grabs a decision or a flash KO. I don’t see a scenario where grappling will end will for Dariush, and unfortunately for him, I think he’ll only be able to hold off Oliveira’s grappling for so long.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Charles Oliveira SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION.

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Mike Malott vs. Adam Fugitt

In my opinion one of the most underrated fights on this card is Mike Malott vs Adam Fugitt, Mike has had quite a journey in the UFC thus far. After one of the fastest submission finishes in DWCS history as he submitted his opponent in under 40 seconds. That was followed up by two successive first round finishes, on knockout and one submission. In tonights, matchup Malott is rightfully coming in as a clear favorite and the main question I have is how will Malott finish this fight. Throughtout his career he holds a 100% finish rate and his only loss came on the regional scene against another top Canadian UFC talent, Hakeem Dawodu. Fugitt on the other hand is 1-1 in his UFC career thus far and has yet to rise the occasion against an opponent as strong as Malott. What I like most about Malott is that he is extremley fundamentally sound, he has great form on his strikes and his grappling is at a very high level, as he too is a BJJ black belt and has been since 2020. Honestly. I think Fugitt will have a very rough night at the office and that Malott will finish him in prime time in front of his home country fans.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Mike Malott FIRST ROUND SUBMISSION (possible SECOND ROUND KO).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Blake Bilder vs. Kyle Nelson

It was very hard for me to ignore how big of an advantage Bilder will have in tonight’s matchup against Kyle Nelson. Nelson has had a rough go with things as of late, with four losses, one draw and one win over his last six UFC fights whereas his opponent tonight, Bilder, has an undefeated 8-0-1 record including a clean decision win his his UFC debut earlier this year. Honestly, I think Bilder has an easier matchup in Nelson than his previous UFC opponent Shane Young and that was a fight that he handled with ease. Nelson will seriously struggle with Bilder’s elite level grappling and like many other fights on this card, I see a submission finish in this fight. Unfortunately for Nelson, his reaction time and striking technique is not at a UFC level his strikes landed per minute rate or SLpM is at 2.85 while his strikes absorbed per minute rate or SApM is at 4.89, those stats are terrible and the damage he has taken already throughout his career will definitely have an effect on his future peformances. If he loses tonight and amasses a 1-5-1 record in the UFC, I don’t see him lasting to much longer in the UFC roster.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Blake Bilder FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order

Amanda Nunes 5 ROUNDER

Marc-Andre Barriault

Maria Oliveira FADE

David Dvorak

Aiemann Zahabi

Miranda Maverick

Nassouradine Imavov (Chris Curtis is a good underdog play for DFS)

Dan Ige

SUMMARY:

PARLAY OF THE DAY

Malott to Finish -125

Marc-Andre Barriault -138

Blake Bilder -250

Amanda Nunes -334

2 years ago 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts

Featured

UFC on ABC 5

EMMETT V TOPURIA

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Chris Bassitt vs. Oakland Athletics

Brayan Bello vs. Chicago White Sox

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Los Angeles Angels vs. Kyle Freeland

San Diego Padres vs. Patrick Corbin

Course Analysis for our Travelers Championship Picks

Course Comps to TPC River Highlands

Weather for our Travelers Championship Picks

Travelers Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

Summary

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Zac Gallen vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Andrew Abbott vs. Colorado Rockies

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Cincinnati Reds vs. Connor Seabold

Houston Astros vs. Tylor Megill

MLB DFS Aces – Main

James Paxton vs. Minnesota Twins

Merrill Kelly vs. Milwaukee Brewers

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Cincinnati Reds vs. Austin Gomber

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Drew Smyly

UFC on ESPN 47

VETTORI V CANNONIER

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Michael Kopech vs. Seattle Mariners

Taijuan Walker vs. Oakland Athletics

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Atlanta Braves vs. Dinelson Lamet

Kansas City Royals vs. Patrick Sandoval

Los Angeles Country Club Course Analysis

What type of golfer suits LACC?

Course Comps for our US Open Picks

Weather for our US Open Picks

US Open Picks

Headliners: Suggested Staking

Longshot Bombs: Suggested Staking

Summary

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Zach Eflin vs. Oakland Athletics

Jesus Luzardo vs. Seattle Mariners

James Paxton vs. Colorado Rockies

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Tampa Bay Rays vs. James Kaprielian

Texas Rangers vs. Tyler Anderson

UFC 289

NUNES V ALDANA

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order

Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

Our Company

©2024 WIN DAILY®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Queue

©2024 WIN DAILY^®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.