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MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (July 7)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Friday and that means we have a full slate of games to work through for our MLB DFS lineups. Tonight’s slate is looking to be a fun one. We get to pick on the Brewers again with a solid lefty and we also have some very questionable pitchers that I’ll be more than happy to pick on with some bats.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Andrew Abbott vs. Milwaukee Brewers

My strategy to pick on the Brewers with lefties this season has mostly been a successful one. We’ve seen pitchers like Rich Hill do well against them. Tonight they’ll actually face a dominant lefty and this has the makings for a monster night for the young Cincy southpaw. Over the last month, Abbott has been splendid. He’s thrown to a 1.44 ERA, all while having a K rate over 30%.

He’ll face off tonight vs. a Brewers team that is striking out close to 28% of the time vs. lefties this season. So we have a strikeout pitcher on the mound facing a team that has a high propensity to strike out. This has ceiling game written all over it! Abbott will be a lock in all of my lineups tonight.

Dylan Cease vs. St. Louis Cardinals

It gives me some solace knowing that the award for the most disappointing team this season goes to the Cardinals and not my New York Mets. Through 87 games, the Cardinals are a staggering 15 games under .500. After tonight, it will more than likely be 16 games. The Cardinals will have the daunting task of facing off against Dylan Cease. While his last outing was subpar, prior to that we had finally started to see the Dylan Cease of old. He had amassed 36 strikeouts over 4 games.

I’ll take that level of strikeout upside every day of the week. The Cardinals aren’t a high-strikeout team, but facing off against Cease tonight there should be some extra K’s in there for us. Plus, Cease is only $8.5k tonight. We’ll be getting a pitcher that has a 35% k rate over the last month for less than $9k. Sign me up.

Other pitchers I’ll have interest in tonight will be Hunter Brown vs. Seattle, Brenna Bernardino vs. Oakland, and Justin Verlander vs. San Diego. That said, I’m not straying too far from Abbott/Cease tonight. For me, they are the clear favorites in terms of pitchers tonight.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. Jameson Taillon

The New York Yankees probably hit rock bottom last night with their blowout loss to the Orioles. Things start fresh for them today as Carlos Rodon makes his Yankees debut. More importantly for us though, they also get a very tasty matchup tonight vs. their former teammate in Jameson Taillon. Taillon has been an absolute mess during his time in Chicago.

Over the last month, he’s been dreadful. A 6.75 ERA, 8 homers allowed, and 14 barrels allowed. All of this in just 26 innings of work. If ever there was a slump-buster type of matchup for this Yankees team, it’s Jameson Taillon. With Taillon, we want to prioritize any and all lefties. They have just massive numbers vs. him this season.

I’m going to lock in Anthony Rizzo here. Rizzo has been very quiet of late. His power has all but been zapped and he’s been mostly a singles and doubles hitter over the last month. That changes big time tonight. He’s my home run call of the night. Taillon is giving up a .346 ISO to lefties. If ever there was a great get-right spot for Rizzo, it’s this. He’s not going to get better opportunities than this.

I’ll also look to include Billy McKinney as a value play. He should be in there as a lefty bat and he’s only $2.1k tonight. Other Yankees bats I like tonight will be Giancarlo Stanton, Harrison Bader, and Anthony Volpe. All three should do well in this matchup.

Boston Red Sox vs. Luis Medina

It’s been a while since I picked on the Oakland Athletics. That changes tonight. Luis Medina has been really struggling with his command. He’s walked 12 hitters over his last 2 outings. Somehow though, he’s only allowed 4 ER over those outings. At some point, putting that many runners on with free passes is going to come back and bite you. It’s going to bite him tonight.

If the Red Sox can be patient tonight, they have the potential to put up a very big number. Vegas absolutely loves them as they have a 6 run total so far. I fully expect them to get to that number tonight. With Medina, I’m not going to be overly worried about splits. He’s been pretty bad vs. both sides of the plate this season.

I’ll start out my Red Sox stack with their 3 best hitters, Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida, and Justin Turner. This is one of the better spots that Rafael Devers will see all year. It also helps that he’s coming into this game swinging a pretty good stick. Over the last week, Devers has 9 hits in his last 24 AB. His OPS Is also over 1.000 during that stretch. I could definitely see Devers taking Medina deep tonight.

Another Red Sox hitter swinging well right now is Yoshida. He’s 11 for his last 20 and has a 1.321 over those ABs. A 3-4 punch of Devers and Yoshida has a world of upside tonight. Other Red Sox bats I like here will be Jarren Duran, Triston Casas, and Alex Verdugo.

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Guardians vs. Daniel Lynch, Twins vs. Cole Irvin, and the Rangers v. Trevor Williams. The Rangers are a close call to my top 2 stacks. They have immense upside every single night out.

MLB DFS Summary

We have a fun Friday slate tonight. There are a plethora of options on the mound and at bat. I laid out my top options and I will be sticking with them in all my lineups.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (July 5)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Happy Hump Day! Tonight we have ourselves an 11-game slate of MLB DFS. At first glance, this slate brings us some strong matchups both on the mound and at bat. We a pitcher in Justin Steele with a beautiful matchup and we also have the Braves in another matchup where they should absolutely smash. Let’s see if those can be some building blocks for us today.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Justin Steele vs. Milwaukee Brewers

If you’ve been following me this season, you know that I’ve been targeting lefties vs. the Brewers. Last time out, we went with Dick Mountain against them and he proceeded to turn back the clock and get 17 DK points at a $6.2k salary. Now Justin Steele is way more expensive than Hill was so he isn’t even remotely a value play, but he’s been pitching amazingly and this matchup screams ceiling-type game for the young Cubs hurler.

He’s coming off back-to-back 27 DK point outings. In those games, he combined to strike out 14 batters in 12 innings of work. I’ll take a more than 1:1 ratio every day of the week and with a matchup vs. a Brewers team striking out nearly 28% of the time vs lefties, there’s some serious K upside for Steele tonight.

Pablo Lopez vs. Kansas City Royals

We saw Kent Maeda have his way with the Royals yesterday, striking out 9 in 7 innings of work and allowing just 1 ER. With how well Lopez has been pitching, there’s no reason to think that he can’t come close to duplicating that. Over the last month, Lopez has a 31.5% k rate and a 71% first strike rate.

He’s been doing an amazing job staying ahead of hitters and that’s helped him get at least 20 DK points in 4 of his last 5 starts. He’s also been getting a 31% chase rate against hitters as well. Lopez should be able to return value tonight even though he’s priced over $10k. There’s little to this Royals lineup that scares me these days. Going double aces with Steele and Lopez is very much in play.

Other pitchers that will be in my player pool tonight will be Bobby Miller vs. the Pirates, Kodai Senga vs. Arizona, and Jose Berrios vs. Chicago. Berrios has been lights out since mid-May and should be able to do well vs. a team in the White Sox that is worlds better vs. lefties than righties.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Minnesota Twins vs. Alec Marsh

We don’t have much to go with Alec Marsh in the big leagues as he’s only made 1 start and that was against the Los Angeles Dodgers a week ago. What we do know though is that he got absolutely shelled in that outing. In just 4 innings of work, Marsh gave up 2 homers and 5 ER. He also managed to give up 6 hits and 4 walks for a WHIP of 2.5.

I’m not going to sit here and compare the 2 offenses and they are in different leagues, but the Minnesota Twins have a very competent lineup and can put up runs in spurts with the best of them. Just yesterday they put up a 9 spot against this same Royals team. They should be able to put up a healthy amount of runs again today in a pristine matchup.

With this stack, I’m going to prioritize getting the big 4 into this lineup. That’s Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Max Kepler, and Alex Kirilloff. Each of them has been hitting the ball extremely well over the last week and with me, recency bias outtakes everything else. Kepler has been the best of the 4 as he has a 1.251 OPS over the last week. It’s great to finally see him putting it together on a more consistent basis. He’s also just $2.8k tonight. Makes paying up for Buxton and Correa that much easier.

Kiriloff is another key value piece here. He’s been extremely productive as he has 7 hits in his last 18 AB. Most importantly though, Kirilloff is only $2.7k on DK tonight and opens up just a ton of breathing room for us money-wise. Joey Gallo is also in play here, but he’s more reserved for GPP only.

New York Mets vs. Tommy Henry

It hasn’t been often of late that I’ve gotten to write up my New York Mets. That changes today. The Mets are coming into this one with their first 3-game winning streak since 1990. They are also undefeated so far in the month of July. This all after having one of their worst months of baseball in team history. The thing is the offense was rarely the reason for them losing. They were still able to put up some runs, the bullpen just couldn’t keep the lead.

They get a strong matchup tonight vs. Tommy Henry. Henry over the last has pitched to a 4.61 ERA and a nearly 5 xFIP. He’s been giving up bombs at a pretty quick pace, with 6 in his last 27 innings of work. We’ll want hitters from both sides of the plate here as Henry has struggled against both righties and lefties.

I’m starting my Mets stack with Francisco Lindor and Alvarez. The Francisco brothers! After struggling throughout the month of June, Alvarez has really come alive in July. He’s homered in 2 of his 3 games and stands a really solid chance of taking Henry deep tonight. Lindor for the most part has played extremely well since the birth of his most recent child. He’s already up to 17 homers this season and 55 RBI. He’s one of the top offensive SS in the league and should smash in this spot.

We’ll also want the polar bear, Pete Alonso. Things haven’t come overly easy for him recently, but against a bad pitcher like Henry he should do well. Other bats to include here will be Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, and team MVP Tommy Pham.

As is always the case, the Braves are very much in play. Cal Quantrill has 3 straight negative point games. That’s pretty horrific. You know the normal plays here. I also like the Dodgers vs. Osvaldo Bido.

MLB DFS Summary

This is shaping up to be a fun slate of baseball. Some really good pitchers in great spots and some really clear spots for offense.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA Premium

John Deere Classic Picks and Advice: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

TPC Deere Run hosts our John Deere Classic picks

What a year we are having! Daniel Hillier secured yet another victory from our selections over on the DP World Tour. The 80/1 long-shot secured the British Masters with a stunning final 9 holes, including going eagle-birdie-eagle before a clutch par putt on the 18th. Let’s look for another winner with our John Deere Classic picks.

https://twitter.com/deepdivegolf/status/1675531476836974597?s=20

Hillier made an obvious selection. He had finished 3rd and 5th in two of his three most recent appearances. Realistically, he was in a position to win one if not both of those tournaments. But, the secret sauce actually came from a 2021 Challenge Tour event. The 2021 British Challenge was hosted on the same course at The Belfry. Obviously, it was an easier setup than the DP World Tour tournaments played at the same venue. Hillier finished 14th that week. However, Hillier was the best player in the field over the last three rounds. Likely this was missed by many, but not when we are @DeepDiveGolf!

Course Analysis for our John Deere Classic Picks

TPC Deere Run plays host to this event, as it has since 2000. This short 7,289 yard par-71 completes what should really be coined the wedge, putting contest, birdie-fest swing. A low winning score of between -20 to -25 is likely this week.

The course offers up very little defense. A quick peruse through past leaderboards makes clear driving accuracy is at a premium here for our John Deere Classic picks. The 2017 edition, battled between DeChambeau and Rodgers, provides the sole exception. Rough is reasonably thick at 4 inches, although fairways are not that narrow. Players simply need to be providing themselves a multitude of birdie looks here from within 15 feet. That is best achieved through finding the short grass off the tee. It is an essential element to your John Deere Classic picks.

There will be a disproportionate number of shots between 50-100 yards and, particularly, 100-150 yards. This been the same recipe as seen recently at the RBC Canadian Open, Travelers Championship, and Rocket Mortgage Classic. Over 60% of shots are from 100-200 yards. This is further emphasized given the majority of approach shots over 200 yards will occur on the par 5s and two of the par 3s being over 200 yards.

I will be putting less weighting on putting here than other models. The greens are relatively simple and true, being bentgrass. There is little in the way of undulations or complicated reading here. I’d much rather narrow the focus on fairway finders who will be giving themselves plenty of birdie looks due to elite wedge play.

Key metrics: Driving accuracy, Approach 100-150 yards, Approach 50-100 yards.

Course Comps for TPC Deere Run

Chiefly, a number of recent courses are used as guidance for your John Deere Classic picks. Detroit Golf Club, TPC River Highlands, and Oakdale Golf & Country Club all emphasize accuracy and a disproportionate number of wedge shots. They also provide bentgrass within their green complexes. These courses balance a nice combination of recent form as well as being correlated to what we expect this week.

Other correlations for John Deere Classic picks are at Waialae Golf Club, Sedgefield Country Club, and the American Express tournament. All emphasize driving accuracy and a high number of wedge shots. Therefore, as Jon Rahm infamously described one of the aforementioned, they become a bit of a putting contest.

Weather

There appear to be few pitfalls in the weather this week. Winds look relatively consistent across both Thursday and Friday and any potential weather edge does appear minimal.

There is a small chance of some raining on Wednesday evening. Certainly, this may lead to a softening of conditions for those out Thursday morning. However, the advantage should be minimal. Therefore, this does not factor into our John Deere Classic picks. However, I would provide a small uptick for any lower priced options you are considering in DFS who are going out early in round 1.

John Deere Classic Picks

Suggested Staking

Russell Henley – Your John Deere Classic Picks favourite
3pts E/W +1600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Chris Kirk
2.5pts E/W +3000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Stephan Jaeger
2pts E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Alex Smalley
2pts E/W +4500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Brendon Todd
1pt E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 (TAB)

David Lipsky
1pt E/W +12500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And 2pts
Top 20 +450 (Bet365)

Zac Blair
0.5pts +17500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +600 (Bet365)
And
2pts Top 40 +240 (TAB)

Satoshi Kodaira – Your John Deere Classic Picks best value
0.5pts +35000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1200 (Unibet)
And
2pts Top 40 +333 (Bet365)

Summary

Finally, thank you reading our 2023 John Deere Classic picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: Use code “GREEN” or “WINBIG” when signing up to receive a one week no obligation free trial.

Obviously this includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (July 3)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s the Monday funday and today we have a shortened slate. We have only a 6-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. This slate has some solid options up top in terms of pitching. We also have some solid spots for bats. One question that will be burning for everyone will be what to do with Domingo German as he’s coming off MLB’s 24^th perfect game. Prior to that, he had been awful.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Blake Snell vs. Los Angeles Angels

The matchup isn’t the greatest for Blake Snell tonight as he’s facing the best hitter the game has probably ever seen. But you have to respect what he’s done over the last 30+ days. Over his last 31 innings of work, Blake Snell has a 47% strike-out rate. Think about that for a second. He’s striking out pretty darn close to 50% of the batters that he’s facing. He has 4 consecutive starts with double-digit k’s and he hasn’t been under 6 strikeouts since all the way back on 5/19.

He’s also been over 20 DK points in 6 consecutive starts. He’s also only $8.6k tonight on DK. As long as he gives Shohei Ohtani the Barry Bonds treatment today, he should be able to navigate this lineup. He definitely comes with some risk tonight, but he also comes with massive upside at this price.

Joe Ryan vs. Kansas City Royals

I’m not really sold on the talents of Joe Ryan, but he has had some massive games this season and gets a matchup tonight vs. a Royals team in which he very well could have a massive game again. Ryan is coming off a poor outing against the Atlanta Braves but we’ll cut him some slack because well, it’s the Braves and they have by far the best lineup in the game of baseball right now.

Prior to that, Ryan had a 45-point outing against a decent Red Sox lineup. Ryan has been the model of inconsistency this season and because of that, he makes for a great GPP play. He has real upside tonight against this bad Royals team. Against righties this season, the Royals have a nearly 25% k rate and just a .659 OPS. Ryan should be able to have an above-average game vs. a below-average lineup.

Other pitchers I’m going to have my eye on tonight will be Bryan Woo vs. the Giants and Tyler Wells vs. the Yankees. The Mets starters just walked through the Giants and Woo can definitely do the same vs. them. The Yankees are a watered-down lineup these days and Wells has been really solid.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

San Diego Padres vs. Jaime Barria

The disappointing San Diego Padres get the matchup of a lifetime tonight against Jaime Barrie. Well, maybe not the matchup of a lifetime, but they do get a good one. Barria has struggled somewhat over the last month. Over his last 15 innings of work. Barria has pitched to an ERA of 5.87. His xFIP is even higher at 6.48. He’s been letting up homers at an epic pace as he’s allowed 5 in those 15 innings. That’s just not good.

He’s also giving up way too many barrels. 11 in 15 innings if horrendous. Should he continue to make mistakes, this Padres lineup should be able to smack him around and put up a healthy amount of runs. I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits in this one. Both sides have some pros and cons. Righties have a much higher ISO vs. Barrie while lefties have a much higher wOBA.

The 3 premier plays in this lineup are Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, and Juan Soto. Each of them warrants a spot in your MLB DFS lineups. All 3 have homer potential every single AB and should do well in this matchup. After those 3, I’m going to look to prioritize getting Ha-seong Kim and Trent Grisham into my lineups.

The 2 of them have actually been the hotter hitters in this lineup of late. Over the past week, the 2 of them each have an OPS of at least 1.000. Kim is 7 for his last 21 with 2 homers and a 95% contact rate. If he cracks the lineup tonight, he’s a solid play for us. After the 5 guys I’ve already mentioned, Jake Cronenworth and Gary Sanchez would also make solid plays

Baltimore Orioles vs. Domingo German

Up until his perfect game against the hapless Oakland Athletics, German had been pitching poorly. There had actually been talk about DFA’ing him. Even with the perfect game, German still has a 5.67 ERA over the last month and a 4.26 xFIP. The perfect game was pure luck and he’s going to come right back down to earth against the Baltimore Orioles.

The Orioles haven’t been hitting the cover off the ball of late like they were earlier in the year, but they still make for a great play vs. a bad pitcher. They have one of the top young lineups in the league and every night out they have the potential to put up a very crooked number. Tonight is no different.

The main bats I’m interested in here are going to be Cedric Mullins, Gunnar Henderson, and Adley Rutschman. All 3 of them will have the platoon advantage and are quite frankly, the most talented hitters in this lineup. Henderson, after struggling through the first year of his MLB career has really come alive over the last month or so. He has a ton of potential in this matchup.

I’m also very interested in Anthony Santander. He’s been one of the teams’ most consistent hitters since the start of the 2022 season. He’s one of their MVP’s and should always be considered in their stack. Other bats to look at here are Ramon Urias and Aaron Hicks.

I didn’t mention them, but Atlanta is very much in play. They are essentially a team that is in play every single night, regardless of who they are facing. Every hitter in their lineup has home run potential every single AB.

MLB DFS Summary

We have ourselves a small slate tonight. We have a couple of good options on the mound and bats should be plentiful.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

UFC Premium

Al’s Fight Night Deep Dive for UFC on ESPN 48

Allan Fabrykant 2 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

UFC on ESPN 48

STRICKLAND V MAGOMEDOV

After a great card on ABC last week, we’re back on ESPN for today’s action! Today’s card will kick off at 4:00 PM ET. Be sure to tune in to catch all of today’s fights. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 12 fights that will end with a heavy-hitting middleweight matchup. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both usually active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC on ESPN 48 Strickland vs Magomedov.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Damir Ismagulov vs Grant Dawson

This one was a tough call in my opinion. Although Ismagulov came up short in a decision loss to Tsarukyan in his last bout, there is no doubt that he is a top-tier UFC lightweight. As far as I’m concerned, there is no shame in losing to a guy as talented as Tsarukyan. Tsarukyan’s grappling was simply too much for Ismagulov to handle. Although Dawson is also a grappler, he is nowhere near as good as Tsarukyan and his longtime coach James Krause has recently been banned from participating in UFC events. Dawson also had an embarrassing performance against Ricky Glenn where he struggled to fight for a draw after a brutal gassing out following a strong start. I can’t trust Dawson in this spot, Ismagulov is too tricky for many fighters to handle, even Guram Kutateladze, who will be featured later in the article, couldn’t do enough against Ismagulov to get his hand raised. This looks to me like it will be a close back-and-forth fight but I think Ismagulov has an edge here.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Damir Ismagulov UNANIMOUS DECISION.

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Guram Kutateladze vs. Elves Brener

As promised, let’s talk about Guram Kutateladze. A longtime training partner of Khamzat Chimaev, the Georgian Kutateladze has had a bit of a hectic run in the UFC with two fights since 2020 both finishing via split decision which saw him pick up a win against top 10 lightweight Mateusz Gamrot and a loss to Damir Ismagulov. Now, Guram is set to return to the Octagon against a relatively unknown Elves Brener. Brener was able to pick up a split decision win over Nurmagomedov’s close friend Zubaira Tukhugov but I did not see enough out of him to see him competing for Guram for an extended period of time. Although Brener may be able to last a round, Guram’s incredible pressure and strike power will eventually overwhelm the Brazilian. With punches, elbows, kicks, and BJJ all at a high level in his arsenal, I see Guram decisively winning this one.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Guram Kutateladze SECOND ROUND KO.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Joanderson Brito vs. Westin Wilson

This fight is a clear mismatch. Brito was scheduled to compete against Khusein Askhabov who Brito would’ve been a clear favorite against as a top 25 featherweight matching up against a fighter who only has one UFC fight under their belt (… and it was a loss). With Askhabov dropping out on short notice, regional talent Westin Wilson answered the call. I want to stress the word regional over talent. Despite three wins over his last four, Wilson is nowhere near UFC quality, let alone at the level of Brito. Wilson has racked up a lot of losses to mediocre talent and does not have a single notable win to his name. From what I have seen out of Brito, he will make quick work out of his short-notice opponent with heavy strikes as well as lots of takedowns. Hopefully, Brito will find himself competing for a top-15 spot in the featherweight division in the near future after a strong performance tonight.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Joanderson Brito FIRST-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Sean Strickland 5 ROUNDER

Michael Morales

Melissa Gatto

Bruno Ferreira

Benoit Saint-Denis (BIG UNDERDOG CALL)

Rinat Fakhretdinov

Karol Rosa

Ivana Petrovic

Alexandr Romanov

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

Michael Morales -250

Guram Kutateladze to Finish (KO) -110

Joanderson Brito to Finish (KO) -500

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

Top Rookies for 2023 NFL Season Long Fantasy

Ivan Herrera 2 years ago

written by Ivan Herrera

With the start of the 2023 NFL season two months away, it is time to dive in and look at the best rookies to target in your season-long drafts. Drafting the right rookies in your seasonal fantasy leagues can make or break your season.

Top Rookies:

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons (RB1):

When to draft him. I can’t make a list of the best rookies to draft and not include Robinson. The 8th overall pick had a dominant college career and looks to have the talent to translate that to the NFL. Robinson couldn’t have asked for a better team to be drafted to as Atlanta’s run blocking is one of the best in the league. The Falcons led the league last year in rushing attempts with Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier in the backfield. With no disrespect towards the Falcons’ two backs from last season, Robinson is miles ahead of them talent-wise. In his final season at Texas, Robinson ran for 1580 yards and 18 touchdowns to go along with his 314 yards and two TDs receiving. I would take Bijan Robinson starting in the back half of the 1st round of any PPR and non-PPR leagues. He is a clear RB1 and is only behind Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler in my RB rankings.

Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings (WR1):

When to draft him. Minnesota wasn’t happy with just one superstar WR they went out and used their 1st round pick on another. Addison won the Fred Biletnikoff Award in 2021 while at Pitt for Most Outstanding WR. Like Bijan, Addison couldn’t have asked for a better landing spot with the Vikings. Lining up alongside arguably the top WR in the league should open up a lot of space for the Viking’s 2nd WR. Addison’s route running in Minnesota’s pass-heavy offense should mean good things for the rookie wideout. With Justin Jefferson being on the same team, Addison shouldn’t be your WR1. He is a midrange WR2 this year. At the start of the 7th round of your draft is when you should be looking at taking Addison.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks (WR2):

When to draft him. Smith-Njigba is probably the best rookie WR coming into the season. I would have him ahead of Addison if it wasn’t for the two wideouts who sit in front of him on Seattle’s depth chart. Smith-Njigba should see a healthy amount of targets during his rookie year as Geno Smith averaged 33.6 pass attempts a game last season. Similarly to Addison, Smith-Njigba shouldn’t be your WR1 because of the other WRs on his team. Early 8th is when I am starting to look at drafting Smith-Njigba. With a similar ranking to Addison for me, if you have a choice between the two I would go with Addison.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detriot Lions (RB2):

When to draft him. Gibb’s ceiling is up there alongside Bijan Robinsons. Gibbs looks to take over the hole left by Swift’s trade to the Eagles. His ability as a pass catcher increases his fantasy value since he already possesses big play potential in the run game. In a full PPR league, Gibbs is a top-10 caliber RB even as a rookie. In non-PPR leagues, I think Gibbs losses a few spots but is still a top-15 back. Gibbs is a low-end RB1/high-end RB2. I would draft him early 3rd if he is my RB1 or wait until the start of the 4th to be my RB2.

Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers (WR3):

When to draft him. Similar to Smith-Njigba, Johnston’s potential is a bit damaged having two established WRs ahead of him. Having Herbert as his QB will be very beneficial for him since the LAC QB had 699 pass attempts last season which means he is likely to spread the ball to all three wideouts. I don’t like to predict injuries but Allen and Williams have been injury prone their whole careers so if that trend continues Johnston would move up to WR1/2 and his production will increase. I would start looking at Johnston around the 9th round. To me, with Allen and Williams being ahead of him, Johnston is a low-end WR2/flex.

Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens (WR4):

When to draft him. I think Flowers is the best WR at the moment for the Baltimore Ravens and only behind TE Mark Andrews as the best target for Lamar Jackson. The reason I have him ranked as my 4th rookie WR is the fact that Lamar is such a threat as a runner that Flowers wouldn’t see the same amount of targets as Addison, Smith-Njigba, and Johnston. Similarly to Johnston, I would start taking a look at Flowers in the 9th round. They rank out similarly to me so if one isn’t available then take the other but if both are available I would take Johnston over Flowers.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills (TE1):

When to draft him. Kincaid is going into an offense where TEs have had success over the past few seasons. On the depth charts, he is currently sitting 2nd behind Dawson Knox, but he should see plenty of field time. Kincaid is a player I am looking to pick up around the 11th/12th round. I would be a bit worried to have him as my TE1 but he’s near the top of my list for TE2.

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (QB1):

When to draft him. The 1st overall pick in this year’s draft has to be included in this list. Young was announced as the starter going into training camp which gives him a boost in fantasy. The reason Young is my top rookie QB to target in season-long fantasy is because of the team that was built around him. Over the offseason, Carolina has brought in weapons like Miles Sanders and Adam Thielen as well as drafted wideout Jonathan Mingo. I would not draft Young to be my QB1 in any league but he is a good bye week QB option. After the 13th round is the time to start looking at drafting Young.

7 Rookies to keep an eye out for during the first few weeks:

Michael Mayer (TE, Las Vegas Raiders)
CJ Stroud (QB, Houston Texans)
Marvin Mims Jr (WR, Denver Broncos)
Tyjae Spears (RB, Tennessee Titans)
Jalin Hyatt (WR, New York Giants)
Devon Achane (RB, Miami Dolphins)
Israel Abanikanda (RB, New York Jets)

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Ivan (idrago15) will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Ivan on Twitter @idragol15 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-articles/

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (June 30)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Friday and that means we have a full slate of evening games. MLB has blessed us with a 12-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. At first glance though, pitching is extremely underwhelming on this late. It lacks a clear ace and even the mid-level arms have clear risk. This slate does however present us with a decent amount of stacking options.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Osvaldo Bido vs. Milwaukee Brewers

If you just watched the Mets/Brewers series 2 things should be clear. The Mets are bad and have little heart. They’ll play out the string the rest of the year and will probably lose 90 games. The other thing that is clear is that the Brewers offense is also very bad and we can attack them with pitchers often. I plan on doing that tonight with Osvaldo Bido. Bido so far in his young has shown some strikeout upside.

And what is king in MLB DFS? Strikeouts. Through his first 3 starts, Bido has struck 18 hitters. He’s had at least 5 k’s in each start. With a matchup against a team in the Brewers that is striking out more than 25% against righties, I don’t see any reason to think that Bido can’t get us at least another 5 strikeouts and at least 15-20 DK points.

Bobby Miller vs. Kansas City Royals

The young Bobby Miller is coming off 2 extremely poor starts. In those starts, Miller gave up a combined 13 ER. Not ideal for someone that we’re targeting. That said, I really like this spot as a bounce-back spot for Miller tonight. The Royals aren’t a good team. If we look at what they’ve done vs. righties this season, it’s been pretty bad. They have a 24.5% K rate vs. righties and an OPS below .670. They also have a sub .300 wOBA.

All 3 numbers scream struggles and because of that, I really do believe that Miller bounces back tonight and puts up a similar outing to the 4 previous outings before the 2 blow-up games. In those outings, he had over 20 DK points each. Look for him to get back on the right side of the ship and have a dominant outing vs. a bad team.

Other pitchers I like today will be James Paxton vs. Toronto (risky though), Bryan Hoenig vs. Atlanta (also risky), and Shane McClanahan vs. Seattle.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. Matthew Liberatore

The St. Louis Cardinals have been one of the more disappointing teams in all of baseball this season. Midway through the season, the Cardinals are 14 games under .500. Things won’t get any easier tonight as they’ll throw out Matthew Liberatore vs. the Yankees. Liberatore has pitched very poorly this season. Over the past month, he’s allowed a 6.06 ERA. That number actually matches his xFIP so he’s performing as expected.

Magically, Liberatore has only allowed 2 homers in his last 16 innings of work. This is all despite having a 40% flyball rate and a 40% hard-hit rate. At some point, the ball will be flying out of the park more against him. We’ll want to focus on the righties in this matchup. Righties have a nearly .400 wOBA vs. Liberatore this season.

The first 3 bats I’m going to be focused on here will be Giancarlo Stanton, Harrison Bader, and Josh Donaldson. After a sit down with manager Aaron Boone, Donaldson’s bat is coming alive. Over his last 3 games, Donaldson has 2 homers and a double. He’s also driven in 5 runs. Donaldson has a long history of battering southpaws and he faces a bad one tonight.

Stanton has been a huge disappointment this season, but his bat too is starting to come around. He has hits in 3 of his last 4 games and has extra-base hits in back-to-back games. Other bats I’ll want to include in this stack are going to be DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Rizzo. The Cardinals got destroyed last night and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it happen again tonight.

San Francisco Giants vs. Cookie Carrasco

I hope I’m wrong here but the Giants have a great opportunity tonight to put up a lot of runs. The Mets will turn the ball over to Carlos Carrasco tonight. This season has been a huge struggle for him. Over the last month, Cookie has allowed an ERA of 5.56. He’s also allowed 6 homers over the 22 innings worked in June. He’s been struggling, the Mets have been struggling, and the Mets bullpen has been struggling.

It all adds up to the Giants having a monster night tonight at Citi Field. Righties have actually been the downfall for Cookie this season as they have a .422 wOBA vs. him and a .308 ISO. Both numbers are much higher than lefties have against him.

Knowing that I’ll start my Giants stack with Thairo Estrada, J.D. Davis, and Austin Slater. All 3 of these guys have been extremely competent vs. righties this season, with Slater being the best. Slater has a .419 wOBA vs. righties this season and he’ll be a priority for me in this stack. Just because we like the righties here doesn’t mean we ignore the lefties.

I’m also very interested in guys like LaMonte Wade in the leadoff spot, Joc Pederson, and Blake Sobel. Pederson has done a nice job cutting down on strikeouts vs. righties this season and also has a .238 ISO vs. them. This is a great spot for him tonight and his teammates.

Other bats I like tonight will be the White Sox vs. Luis Medina, Tigers vs. Austin Gomber, and Angels vs. Tommy Henry (Ohtani goes deep, again).

MLB DFS Summary

Tonight’s going to be a tricky slate. Pitching is very watered down and some of the top stacks have a lot of risk. I doubt I’ll be straying from the players I mentioned here.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks and Advice: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Detroit Golf Club hosts our Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks

It looked for the first two days of The Travelers Championship as we were well on track for the three-peat. Following winners of Nick Taylor 66/1 and Wyndham Clark 80/1, Denny McCarthy led across the first two rounds. Unfortunately, a rare cold putter in the 3rd round saw him fall out of contention. He still collected a full place payout for us along with the Top 20 money to keep the ball rolling. It looks like another birdie fest is instore for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks.

Course Analysis

Nestled in the heart of Detroit lies the magnificent Detroit Golf Club, a captivating haven for golfers seeking a true test of their skills. With its meticulously manicured fairways, undulating greens, and strategic bunkering, this Donald Ross masterpiece offers an ideal setting for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks.

Many people will simply look at the list of winners and believe this is a bombers paradise. Seeing names such as Tony Finau, Cam Davis, and Bryson DeChambeau battling Matthew Wolff could lead some to believe driving distance is essential here. That can be a fallacy many fall into. I prefer taking a much more nuanced approach.

We have also seen many shorter but accurate hitters also find success here. Chris Kirk, Troy Merritt, and J.J. Spaun top the list of the best course history here for those with more than 12 rounds played despite being shorter hitters.

What these players do share in common is they are consistently gaining strokes on approach from 50-150 yards. More than 50% of shots will occur from this range. This is significant, especially when you account for Par 3s and Par 5s that are always naturally going to demand longer irons no matter which course you play.

Comp Courses

Sedgefield Country Club is another Donald Ross design featuring tree lined fairways and a reputation as a birdie fest. There are correlating links between the The American Express, not just through Rahm’s infamous putting contest remark but the disproportionate number of wedge shots required there.

Recent results at The Travelers Championship and this year’s Canadian Open host Oakdale Golf and Country Club are noted. These tournaments both feature a large number of wedge shots, tree lined fairways, and greens featuring a bentgrass/poa annua mix. They provide a nice balance between correlated metrics and recent form arriving here for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks.

Weather for our Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks

There does appear to be a minor weather edge developing for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks. Golfers fortunate enough to tee off on Thursday morning and continue their second round on Friday afternoon might benefit from calmer conditions, as the forecast suggests a light breeze and moderate temperatures during these periods. Potential thunderstorms Friday afternoon could delay play. Therefore, this would see those golfers get to finish their rounds under calm conditions Saturday morning. This favorable weather window could potentially yield lower scores and provide an advantage for those players.

In contrast, competitors teeing off on Thursday afternoon and continuing their second round on Friday morning might encounter slightly more challenging conditions. The forecast indicates an increase in wind speeds and possible showers during these timeframes.

We predict the scoring advantage to fall in the range of 0.50-0.75 strokes on average. This is likely insufficient to take me off premium players like Hideki Matsuyama. However, it is worthy on noting for lower tier options that the preference should be for them to come from the perceived better weather draw.

Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks

Suggested Staking

Hideki Matsuyama – Your Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks Favourite
2.5pt E/W +2000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Chris Kirk
2pt E/W +5000 (Bet365/William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Stephan Jaeger
2pt E/W +5000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Nicolai Hojgaard
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (William Hill/TAB)

Mark Hubbard
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +350 (William Hill/TAB)

Joseph Bramlett – Your Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks Best Value
1.5pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +400 (Bet365)

David Lipsky
0.5pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +650 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +230 (Bet365)

Summary

Finally, thank you reading our 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: Use code “GREEN” or “WINBIG” when signing up to receive a one week no obligation free trial.

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2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (June 28)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

After MLB blessed us with a massive 15-game slate of MLB DFS last night, we’re right back at it with another huge slate as we have 13 games to work with tonight. Anytime there’s this many games, we’ll have plenty of options to pick from with our pitching and stacking. With it being such a big slate, the first thing we’ll want to do is eliminate as much junk as we can. And there’s plenty of junk on this slate to get rid of.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Kodai Senga vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The New York Mets’ starters so far have left the Brewers scoreless through the first 2 games of this series. Justin Verlander did it on Monday and then David Petersen did it last night. The only reason the Mets haven’t won both games is thanks to a 2-run bomb that Drew Smith gave up after Verlander exited thanks to throwing a million pitches through the first 5 innings.

Tonight, the Mets will turn the ball over to Senga and he stands a really solid chance of limiting damage also tonight. The only thing that has really held Senga back in his first season in the Majors is his propensity to give out free passes to hitters. If he can command his pitches tonight and get the ball over the plate, the Mets should be able to win their second game of this 4-game series. This Brewers lineup is bad and the Mets starters have exploited that. They’ll do it again tonight.

Blake Snell vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

This is the Blake Snell the Padres were hoping for when they traded for him back in 2020. He’s been brilliant over the last month. Over his last 31 innings of work, Snell has struck out more than 44% of the batters he’s faced, he’s pitched to a .29 ERA (his xFIP is 1.82), and has allowed a WHIP of .71. He’s finally pitching like the ace everyone thought he would eventually turn into.

Do I expect him to continue at this pace for much longer? I don’t know, but I’m going to take advantage of it until the flame burns out. With a matchup against the Pirates today, I don’t think that happens just yet. The Pirates have improved this season, but a lot of that improvement we saw earlier this season has somewhat washed away. Look for Snell to continue with his dominance tonight.

Other pitchers I like today will be Aaron Nola vs. Chicago, Logan Allen vs. KC, and Braxton Garrett vs. Boston.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Baltimore Orioles vs. Luke Weaver

Oh do the Orioles get a sweet matchup today vs. Luke Weaver. Weaver has been atrocious over the last month. Over his last 5 outings, he’s given up 23 ER. 10 of those ER have come in his last 2 outings. Having to face a lineup as deep as the Orioles today is going to be a huge test for the Reds’ right-hander. There is little that Weaver has done well over the last month.

His WHIP is pushing 2, his contact rate is nearly 88%, and he has a minuscule chase rate of just 23%. The Orioles should have a field day against him on the first day without rain in what seems like forever. With Weaver, I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits. He’s bad against both sides of the plate. Like really bad.

While I’m going to lay out my preferred bats here, the entire lineup tonight will be in play. My priority bats here are going to be Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson, and Ryan O’Hearn. All three of these guys have crushed righties this season and should be able to get to Weaver tonight. Santander has been swinging the hottest stick of all as he has 8 hits in his last 25 AB. 3 of those hits have left the ballpark.

After those 3, I’ll also look to get in Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, and Austin Hays. I will add though that Rutschman is in a bit of a funk right now. That said, there’s no better slump-buster than Luke Weaver.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Kyle Freeland

The Dodgers get just a glorious matchup today vs. Kyle Freeland. Freeland has been really bad over the last month. His ERA over the last 30 days is 6 and his xFIP is just a shade under there. He’s someone that gives up exactly what we look for when stacking. His hard-hit rate against over the last month is 39% and his flyball rate is nearly 40%.

He’s also given up 12 barrels in his last 27 innings of work. With how much contact Freeland gives up, he’s going to get destroyed by the Dodgers tonight. I’m going to give righties a slight edge in this matchup. Righties have a slightly higher ISO and wOBA vs. Freeland this season and that’s consistent with his career.

Don’t be scared to go to the back of this lineup tonight. Last night, the Dodgers had 8 hits. 7 of those hits came from 5-9 in the batting order. They are also going to be considerably cheaper. That doesn’t mean that guys like Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are bad plays. They are far from it.

We can just get different here and save some money by going with guys like J.D. Martinez, Miguel Vargas, and Miguel Rojas. They are riskier than guys at the top of the order, but they’ll be lower-owned in a phenomenal matchup. That said, guys like Betts and Will Smith are going to be great plays in this matchup. All Dodgers are in play tonight.

Other bats I like tonight will be Oakland vs. Domingo German, Tampa vs. Zach Davies, and Texas vs. Joey Wentz

MLB DFS Summary

Unfortunately, tonight’s still a Coors night and fading the Dodgers against Freeland is going to be tough. There are still though a bunch of teams in really great spots tonight.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (June 26)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Monday Funday! And that means we have a smaller than slate of MLB DFS. Tonight we’ll have 6 games to work with, 2 of which have the potential for some really nasty storms. This slate brings us a little bit of everything. Solid pitching, disappointing pitchers, and some solid bats in line to have monster nights.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Dylan Cease vs. Los Angeles Angels

Dylan Cease appears to have re-found his mojo. Over the last month, Cease has been the Cease we’ve come to love. A pitcher that strikes out batters at an excessive amount. Over his last 26 innings of work, Cease has a massive 36% K rate. That’s higher than any pitcher, including Spencer Strider, on this slate. And do you want to know what makes it even better? Cease is just $7.7k tonight.

So we’re getting a pitcher that has racked up 44 strikeouts over his last 5 outings for a bargain bin price. Now don’t get me wrong, he’s far from safe. The Angels are a very good lineup. They just put up a 25 spot the other night. That said, I really like the form that Cease is in right now and he’s been an ace-caliber pitcher in the past. I’m locking him in as a value starter tonight.

Justin Verlander vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The version of Justin Verlander that the Mets have received so far has not been a good one. For the most part, this season has been a struggle for last year’s AL Cy Young award winner. Even though it’s been a struggle, I do like the spot for him tonight. The Brewers have been an extremely inconsistent lineup this season. They can put up runs with the best of them, but they can also strike out with the worst of them.

Against righties this season, the Brewers have a 25% K rate and an OPS of just .684. As I said, this is a good spot for Verlander to dial it back and have one of his vintage outings. We also have some trends with Verlander. Every other outing for Verlander this season has been over 20 DK points. In his last outing, he scored just 12. You know what that means. He’s getting us over 20 DK points at just $8.3k.

Other pitchers I like today will be Spencer Strider vs. Minnesota and Luis Castillo vs. Washington (concerned a bit with Washington’s propensity to not strike out).

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Baltimore Orioles vs. Brandon Williamson

Brandon Williamson is arguably the worst pitcher throwing tonight. Over the last month, he has by far the worst xFIP and ERA of any pitcher on the mount. In his last 26 innings of work, he’s allowed 6 homers and 12 barrels. All of this damage has led to him having an ERA over 6.00 over that stretch. The only thing keeping him afloat right now is that he’s had some good command.

He’s allowed just 2.36 BB/9, which has led to an ok WHIP of 1.46. With Williamson, we want to focus mostly on the right-handed hitters in this lineup. Righties have a .293 ISO and a .372 wOBA against him this season. He’s allowed a 36% flyball rate and a nearly 57% hard-hit rate vs. them. Let’s load up on some righties for the Orioles.

I’m going to load up on the first 3 hitters in this lineup. Austin Hays, Adley Rutchsman, and Anthony Santander all have great numbers this season vs. lefties. Santander is the key here. His numbers against lefties this season are far and away the best on the team. Through 79 plate appearances, Santander has a .409 wOBA and a.238 ISO. He’s also coming into this one swinging the hottest stick in this lineup. Over the last week, Santander has 4 homers and a 1.333 OPS.

Other bats we’ll want to include will be Aaron Hicks (yes, that Aaron Hicks), Jorge Mateo, and Ramon Urias. If this game plays without a hitch, the Orioles should be able to put up a big number.

Texas Rangers vs. Matthew Boyd

The advanced metrics say that Matthew Boyd shouldn’t be this bad. His xFIP is sitting at just 3.21 over the last month. That’s more than 2 runs lower than his actual ERA over the same period. He’s not giving up too many flyballs and he’s not letting a whole lot of runners on. His issue has been once those runners get on, they score. He has a slate worse 59% LOB %. So once he’s letters runners on, more than 40% of them score.

While a little unlucky, you’re just not going to have much success if you can’t limit the damage and he hasn’t been able to limit the damage. To make matters worse for Boyd, he’s facing off against a team in the Rangers tonight that is one of the best in the league against southpaws. It’s going to be a huge struggle for him.

I’m going to prioritize getting guys like Josh Jung, Adolis Garcia, and Jonah Heim into my lineups today. Josh Jung has been making a huge case for Rookie of the Year this season with his stellar play, even though he’s quieted down a smidge. Against lefties this season, Jung has a .444 wOBA and a .324 ISO. His numbers against them are extremely impressive.

Another play that I want to make sure I get into my lineups will be Ezequiel Duran. He’s hot at the plate right now and has also been stellar vs. lefties. Over his last 24 AB, he has 8 hits and an OPS of .958. Both Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are in play tonight, I’m just not going to force them in.

Other bats I like tonight will be Cincy vs. Cole Irvin, Mets vs. Colin Rea, and Mariners vs. Trevor Williams. Braves as always, are in play.

MLB DFS Summary

The story of the night will be the weather. There are a few games where weather may cause us to go in a different route. We’ll want to keep an eye on Baltimore and New York.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts

Featured

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Andrew Abbott vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Dylan Cease vs. St. Louis Cardinals

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. Jameson Taillon

Boston Red Sox vs. Luis Medina

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Justin Steele vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Pablo Lopez vs. Kansas City Royals

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Minnesota Twins vs. Alec Marsh

New York Mets vs. Tommy Henry

Course Analysis for our John Deere Classic Picks

Course Comps for TPC Deere Run

Weather

John Deere Classic Picks

Suggested Staking

Summary

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Blake Snell vs. Los Angeles Angels

Joe Ryan vs. Kansas City Royals

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

San Diego Padres vs. Jaime Barria

Baltimore Orioles vs. Domingo German

UFC on ESPN 48

STRICKLAND V MAGOMEDOV

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Top Rookies:

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons (RB1):

Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings (WR1):

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks (WR2):

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detriot Lions (RB2):

Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers (WR3):

Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens (WR4):

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills (TE1):

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (QB1):

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Osvaldo Bido vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Bobby Miller vs. Kansas City Royals

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. Matthew Liberatore

San Francisco Giants vs. Cookie Carrasco

Course Analysis

Comp Courses

Weather for our Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks

Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks

Suggested Staking

Summary

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Kodai Senga vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Blake Snell vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Baltimore Orioles vs. Luke Weaver

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Kyle Freeland

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Dylan Cease vs. Los Angeles Angels

Justin Verlander vs. Milwaukee Brewers

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Baltimore Orioles vs. Brandon Williamson

Texas Rangers vs. Matthew Boyd

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