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MLBPremium

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 26)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

It’s Wednesday and that means we have a split slate on our hands.  There’s a 5-game starting at 1pm est and an 8-game slate starting at 6:35pm est.  This article will be focused solely on the main slate of MLB DFS starting this evening.  It’s a doozy with some clear mismatches. 

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Bryce Elder vs. Miami Marlins

The pick on the Marlins tour turns to Bryce Elder tonight.  So far in this series we’ve seen Spencer Strider strike out 13 and Charlie (AARP cardholder) Morton strike out 9.  While Elder doesn’t necessarily have the K upside that Strider and Morton have, he has been consistent with at least 6 K’s in 3 of his 4 starts this season. 

With facing the Marlins and their 24% K rate vs. righties, there’s definitely a chance for Elder to grab a couple of extra strikeouts tonight.  His price has started to get up there at $9.4k, but that matchup tonight speaks for itself.  He should be able to pay off his salary tonight. 

Steven Matz vs. San Francisco Giants

I said this the other day with Jordan Montgomery, lefties vs. the Giants will be a thing this season.  Montgomery went on to have a pretty nice outing, striking out 6 through 6 innings and not allowing a single earned run.  We’ll continue to pick on them with competent lefties and tonight we’ll do so with the kid from Long Island, Steven Matz. 

Matz being only $6k on DK tonight makes him arguably the top-value pitcher tonight.  He may not net us 30 points tonight, but he’s been over 10 in 3 of his first 4 starts and the one he didn’t was in Colorado so he gets somewhat of a pass.  He has 13 K’s over his last 2 games and with facing a team that has a 31% K rate vs. lefties tonight, he has extreme upside at this price.   

In full transparency, these are the only 2 arms I’m looking at tonight.  Other arms that may do ok are Logan Gilbert and Kodai Senga.  Senga’s biggest issue has been walks.  If he can get some more control of his pitches, he should dominate but he’s definitely struggling with command. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Chicago Cubs vs. Michael Wacha

After shutting out the Braves on April 8, the world has essentially fallen apart for Michael Wacha.  Over his last 2 starts, Wacha has allowed an impressive 12 ER in just over 8 innings of work.  Also over those 2 starts, he’s allowed 21 hits.  He’s struggling to get hitters out right now and they are getting good wood on him as he’s allowed 9 barrels this season. 

I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits here as Wacha has been bad vs. both sides.  That said, he’s been brutal vs. lefties this season as they have a .382 ISO and a .460 wOBA. 

The bats I’m mostly interested in here will be Ian Happ, Patrick Wisdom, and Nico Hoerner.  Happ is the lefty here so he’s going to have a major advantage with how bad Wacha has been against lefties.  Happ has been great vs. righties this year too, with a wOBA of .446. 

Wisdom is off to a solid start this year, especially against righties.  He has a .391 wOBA and a .380 ISO vs. them.  He also lines up very well.  Wacha throws his changeup 26% of the time to righties.  This is a pitch that Wisdom has crushed from righties, with a .463 wOBA and a .400 ISO.  Other bats I’ll look to here are Dansby Swanson, Eric Hosmer, and Trey Mancini.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Roansy Contreras

Roansy Contreras has just 1 bad start out of 4 to start to the year.  I fully expect him to make it 2 out of 5 after tonight.  He’s just not someone that profiles well as he gives up a ton of fly balls, doesn’t miss many bats, and also has an extremely high WHIP. 

His 1.52 WHIP to start the year is one of the highest numbers of anyone on the mound today.  We chase pitchers with high WHIPS because it just means there are more batters on the bases and that gives us more chances for runs.

I’m starting off my Dodgers stack with the Rookie of the Year award leader, James Outman.  Outman is red hot over the last week with 4 homers and 4 barrels.  His 8 wRC also leads the team.  In terms of the Rookie of the Year award, he’s really in a class of his own at this point.  He’s hit safely in 6 of his last 7 games and after tonight it will be 7 of 8. 

Other bats we’ll look at here will be Freddie Freeman, Mookie Bets, JD Martinez, and David Peralta.  From a value standpoint, Miguel Vargas should be close to the top of the list.  He’s just $2.5k and is  7 for his last 22.  He won’t get us much in the way of power, but at his price point if he continues to play like he has he’ll easily return value.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Luis Medina

The Oakland A’s will be turn the ball over to rookie Luis Medina tonight.  Medina will be making his major league debut.  While he has a fastball that reaches triple digits, he’s also been a pitcher in the minors that has had command issues.  Anytime I see a young prospect coming up with command issues, I automatically want to attack him.  Major League hitters are way more patient and his command issues could lead to a ton of walks.

The obvious bats here are Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani.  There’s not much I need to say to sell you on them.  They are good, no they’re generationally good.  I also really like both Brandon Drury and Hunter Renfroe here.  They were both key additions for the Angels this past offseason. 

Renfroe has been great for them so far this season, with 6 homers and 18 RBI.  He’s also been solid vs. righties with a .279 ISO.  The value bat I’m looking at here Zach Neto.  He’s 7 for his last 22 and has a .899 OPS.  If he can get on tonight, there’s a great chance that one of Ward, Trout, or Ohtani will knock him in.

MLB DFS Summary

I didn’t name them in my top stacks, but a full game stack of that A’s/Angels game is very much in play.  The A’s have shown the ability to put up runs and Sandoval has one of the higher xFIPS of anyone pitching tonight.  They could definitely do some damage tonight. 

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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MLBPremium

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 24)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

It’s Monday and we have a very manageable 7-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through.  We are now close to a month into the 2023 season and some things have become abundantly clear.  The A’s are bad, very very bad.  The Tigers are bad, very very bad.  These are 2 teams we’ll often want to pick on with pitching and stacking.  Tonight will be no different. 

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Spencer Strider vs. Miami Marlins

From a pure strikeout standpoint, there isn’t a single pitcher on tonight’s slate that has the upside that Spencer Strider has.  Through 22 innings of work this season, Strider is already up to 36 K’s.  That equates to a massive 14.73 k/9.  The next closest person pitching tonight is Lance Lynn at 11.81.  Add in the fact that he’s facing the Marlins and we have a pitcher that has immense upside tonight. 

He’s the clear SP1 tonight and I don’t think it’s even close.  He’ll be a lock in my lineups tonight.  I’d only recommend fading if you are MME.  Let’s not overthink this one. 

Jordan Montgomery vs. San Francisco Giants

Lefties vs. the Giants will be a thing this season.  They are at least for now.  We saw Joey Lucchesi, the same pitcher that hadn’t pitched in close to 2 years, absolutely mow this team down the other night.  The projected lineup tonight for the Giants has a 27% k rate vs. lefties and a sub .300 wOBA.  They’ll get the luxury of facing off against Jordan Montgomery tonight. 

While Montgomery is never a safe pick, he has shown at times to have some upside.  He struck out 9 Brewers a couple of weeks ago.  I tend to only use him when the matchup is solid and tonight’s matchup is solid.  You’ll need a bottle of Tums, but he should do well tonight.

Colin Rea vs. Detroit Tigers

We just saw a questionable Baltimore Orioles pitching staff take full advantage of a bad Tigers lineup.  Colin Rea will be making only his third start of the season but oh what a spot this is for him.  He too is far from safe, but we’re limited with pitching options today as many of the teams are on the back ends of their rotation. 

We’ve seen some mixed results from Rea this season.  He dominated the Padres in his initial start but came right back down to earth against a very good Mariners lineup.  With the Tigers being so bad, I’m willing to roll the dice here on Rea. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Los Angeles Angels vs. Ken Waldichuk

Until they prove otherwise, I will be stacking against the A’s on most nights.  They currently have a -103 run different on April 24.  The next closest team is the Colorado Rockies at -54.  They are giving up runs in the teens on multiple occasions each week.  Just this week alone they gave up 18 to the Rangers and 12 to the Cubs.  The week before they gave up 17 to the Mets and 12 to the Orioles.  On any given night, there is blow-up potential and with Ken Waldichuk on the hill tonight, it’s there again. 

Has he pitched better of late?  The box score says yes.  I’m not buying it though.  I’m going to stack against him with a team that has a .359 wOBA vs. lefties this season and a .813 OPS.  The Angels can get to lefties and they’ll face a beatable one tonight.

My priority in this lineup are 2 lefty crushers.  One guy goes by the name of Mike Trout and the other is Hunter Renfroe.  Renfroe has been a beast against lefties so far this season.  He’s up to a .333 ISO and a .566 wOBA.  There’s an excellent chance that he takes Waldichuk deep tonight.  There’s not much I need to say about Trout.  He’s an excellent play every night, and tonight is exaggerated with a bad pitcher on the mound. 

Shohei Ohtani is also very much in play in this L/L matchup.  On the year, he has a .379 wOBA vs. lefties and can excel here.  Other bats I really like on the Angels are anyone that it’s in the lineup.  They are all in play. 

Minnesota Twins vs. Jhony Brito

One of the things I like to look at when picking stacks is how many barrels a pitcher has given up.  Barrels are a good indicator that a pitcher either makes mistakes and leaves the ball over the plate or the hitters just get a good look at what he’s throwing.  Brito has given up 7 barrels already this season in just 15 innings of work.  That’s an extremely high number of barrels in not a lot of innings of work. 

With Brito, we want to focus on righties.  He’s as extreme of a reverse splits pitcher as there is.  Righties have a .445 wOBA vs. him this season vs. a .189 for righties.  The ISO is also significantly higher for righties. 

Knowing this, the first 2 batters I want to look at are going to be Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa.  There are few players in the game that have the type of upside that Buxton brings to the table.  His only problem has been the ability to stay healthy.  So far this season he’s been able to stay on the field and has hit safely in 4 straight games.  With a beatable righty on the hill, he should be able to make it 5 straight with a full stat line. 

Correa should also excel here.  Brito is a sinker ball pitcher.  Over the last few years, Correa has a .415 wOBA vs. righty sinkers.  Other bats to look at here will be Jorge Polanco, Jose Miranda, and Michael Taylor.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Lance Lynn

I’m not opposed to attacking Lance Lynn tonight.  So far this year we haven’t really seen the Lynn we’ve grown accustomed to over the last several seasons.  All of his metrics are at or nearly at career-worst marks.  Has the big fella hit the wall at age 35 season?  It’s quite possible. 

While the strikeouts are still there, the BB/9 and HR/9 are insanely high compared to his career numbers.  He’s coming off a start that saw him give up 5 ER to the Phillies.  We’ll attack him until he gets things right if that happens at all.

The bats I want to prioritize here will be Vlad Guerrero and Matt Chapman.  While Chapman has cooled a little bit after his torrid start, he still has 3 barrels over the last week which has resulted in 2 homers.  He’s done well vs. righties this year with a .426 wOBA.  Vlad Jr. has also done well vs. righties this season with a .254 ISO and a .394 wOBA.  Other bats I’ll look to here will be George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Daulton Varsho.

MLB DFS Summary

I’m going to prioritize getting Mike Trout into my lineups tonight.  I normally shy away from prioritizing a super expensive player, but he has so much upside tonight in this matchup vs. an awful team. 

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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UFCPremium

Al’s Fight Night Deep Dive for UFC Vegas 71

Allan Fabrykant
written by Allan Fabrykant

UFC Vegas 71

PAVLOVICH V BLAYDES

After a crazy card last week, we are back in Las Vegas to catch today’s UFC Fight Night! Today’s action will kick off at 4:00 PM ET. A few brothere of superstars will be squaring off and many fighters will be making their long-awaited returns. This card has a lot of close and interesting matchups for us to enjoy!! Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 12 fights that will end with a matchup between two top 5 fighters in the UFC Heavyweight division. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both usually active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 71 Pavlovich vs Blaydes.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Bruno Silva vs Brad Tavares

Tonight’s value play comes directly from the co-main where Tavares is making a return to the Octagon following a loss to Dricus Du Plessis nearly one year ago against Bruno Silva who ended 2021 well but has quickly found himself on the wrong end of a two-fight losing streak, one of which came against a surging future champion in Alex Pereira. I think people are writing off Bruno too quickly in this matchup which is creating some good value. For example, one stat that jumped out to me was Bruno’s significantly higher SLpM rate when compared to Tavares’. I think this can have a larger impact than people realize, especially towards the later rounds. Ultimately, this is a close fight and a good matchup but I think Silva has all the value, is a good DFS play and in my opinion is in a good position to get the win tonight.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Bruno Silva UNANIMOUS DECISION.

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Bobby Green vs. Jared Gordon

Both of these fighters are very similar, they both rely on their standup game but have been known to mix in takedowns in their arsenal. Green is definitely the more experienced of the two and lately has been facing much stronger competition and holds a win over Haqparast and ended former title challenger Al Iaquinta’s UFC career with a dominant first round finish. Bobby Green has been consistent in showing his finishing power and although its hard to see Green cracking into the top 10, I can see him cruising to a win in this matchup, especially with a small height and reach advantage.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Bobby Green UNANIMOUS DECISION.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Montel Jackson vs. Rani Yahya

As a fighter, Rani Yahya is very much a one trick pony. He’s a grappler pure and simple and knowing that it’s easy for a fighter with the caliber of Montel Jackson to gameplan for that kind of fight style. Additionally, I’m very comfortable leaning on Jackson in this matchup from a statistical perspective. Jackson has a much better strike differential than his opponents, landing nearly three punches for every one punch thrown. Whereas, Yahya actually absorbs more punches than he lands per minute. Not only that but Yahya only has a Takedown accuracy rate of 33% and Jackson has a takedown defence rate of 67%. With those kinds of numbers, I think its only a matter of time before Montel ends Yahya’s night early.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Montel Jackson FIRST-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Curtis Blaydes 5 ROUNDER (Lots of people are high on Pavlovich and he has the power to get a win but Blaydes takedown ability is a gamechanger and it’ll be a huge asset in this fight)

Jeremiah Wells (This fight is very close but Wells has been far more consistent and Semelsberger has made some big Fight IQ errors in his UFC career that steer me away from him.)

Iasmin Lucindo

Norma Dumont

Junior Tafa

Danaa Batgerel

Francis Marshall

Karine Silva

Ricky Glenn

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

Montel Jackson to Finish -155

Ricky Glenn -170

Iasmin Lucindo by Decision +105


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MLBPremium

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 21)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

It’s Friday and we have a massive 12-game slate of MLB DFS!  On the hill tonight is Shohei Ohtani against a weak Royals team.  Anytime that he’s on the hill makes for a fun night of baseball.  With pitching tonight after Ohtani, we have a bunch of mid-level arms.  We also have some bats in solid spots. 

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Shohei Ohtani vs. Kansas City Royals

Shohei Ohtani will be the chalk pitcher of the night.  He gets a glorious matchup vs. an awful lineup in the Kansas City Royals.  The Royals so far in 2023 have been downright bad vs. righties.  They have a 25% k rate vs. them and an OPS under .600.  That OPS is just brutal! 

Ohtani has been pitching lights out, as usual.  Over the first month of the season, he’s thrown to a .86 ERA and has a K rate approaching 33%.  This is a matchup that he should be able to breeze through tonight. 

Jon Gray vs. Oakland Athletics

I’ve been a huge supporter of Jon Gray since he came up with the Rockies.  He’s shown flashes of brilliance at times and flashes of being a gas can at times.  Tonight he should be more of the brilliance than the gas can as he gets a fabulous matchup vs. the lowly Oakland Athletics. 

]Gray should be coming into this one fresh as he left his last start early thanks to a comebacker.  He’s pitched decently so far this season with an ERA in the low 3’s.  His k rate is nothing special, but he should have some upside tonight vs. an A’s lineup that does strike out a decent amount vs. righties.  

Zac Gallen vs. San Diego Padres

This pick comes with a certain level of risk.  The Padres are a tough lineup.  Now that they have Tatis back, they’re even tougher.  That said, they’ve looked beatable and inconsistent on many occasions so far this season.  We also have a pitcher in Zac Gallen who has looked dominant in his last couple of outings. 

He’s had 18 K’s over his last 2 outings and hasn’t allowed an ER.  The Padres have a 26% K rate vs. righties this season, meaning Gallen has some strikeout upside tonight.  He comes with risk, but I really like this spot for Gallen tonight. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Texas Rangers vs. JP Sears

The Rangers have one of the better matchups of all the teams tonight.  JP Sears is coming off a quality start vs. the Mets, but in that start, he surrendered 2 homers in 6 innings of work.  That makes it 5 on the season in just 15 innings of work.  Sears’ flyball rate so far this season is pushing 61%.  When you put that many balls in the air, you are asking for trouble.  Righties have been doing the bulk of the damage vs. Sears so far.   They have a massive .409 ISO vs. him.

Knowing that I’m starting off my stack with Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, and Josh Jung.  Semien is playing great right now with a 10 wRC over the last week.  He’s had 11 hits in his last 23 AB and has combined to either drive in or score 21 runs.  He’s been the heart and soul of their offense while Seager has been out. 

Jung is sporting an 8 game hitting streak right now and there’s no reason to think that Sears will slow him down.  At $3.9k he’s no longer the value play he was, but he’s still someone that should make an impact in this game.  He won’t have the platoon advantage but don’t sleep on Nate Lowe.  He was dominant vs. lefties this year and will be under-owned due to the L/L matchup. 

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Nick PIvetta

Nick Pivetta is coming off an awful start vs. the Angels.  In that start, he gave up 6 ER in 4 innings of work.  Overall, he hasn’t been awful, but he’s been giving up a ton of hard contact this season.  Hitters have a nearly 37% hard-hit rate vs. him and he’s also given up 8 barrels in his 14 innings of work.  That’s not a good ratio to have.  Against a solid Brewers lineup tonight, he’s going to have his hands full.  We want to load up on lefties here.  Lefties have a .333 ISO vs. him this year.  That said, righties have also been hitting him hard so we won’t want to shy away from them.

I’m loading up on the 2 guys in the middle of this lineup, Rowdy Tellez and Willy Adames.  Tellez has a .314 ISO vs. righties so far this year and a .388 wOBA.  He also has a 50% flyball rate which really lines up well with Pivetta and his 53% flyball rate.  Flyball hitter vs. flyball pitcher should be a fun thing to watch. 

Adames also has great numbers vs. righties this season.  His ISO is up to .263 and his wOBA at .379.  With PIvetta mostly throwing fastballs, William Contreras also profiles well here.  He has a nearly .400 wOBA vs. righty fastballs over the last few years.  Other guys I like here are going to be Christian Yelich, Jesse Winker, and Brian Anderson.

New York Yankees vs. Yusei Kikuchi

Yusei Kikuchi is coming off a dominant start vs. the Tampa Bay Rays.  I just don’t trust him enough to think he can do it 2 times in a row.  The start before that was brutal for him as he allowed 6 ER against the Angels. I think we get more along the lines of the 6 than we do the start he had vs. the Rays.  He’s someone that gives up a ton of hard contact.  His hard-hit so far this year is nearly 42%.  Against a really good Yankees that, they should be able to fully take advantage of that. 

The main bats I’m looking at here are going to be Aaron Judge, Anthony Volpe, and Anthony Rizzo.  Judge, while he hasn’t done anything vs. lefties this season, has a long history of smashing them.  Last season he had a wOBA over .400 vs. them.  Against righties, Kikuchi mostly throws his fastball and a slider.  Judge has historically hit lefty sliders hard when he makes contact.  Over the last several seasons, he has  .462 ISO vs. them.  He’s my home run call of the night on a warm night on the east coast. 

With Rizzo, I never shy away from L/L matchups with him.  He’s historically done well against southpaws. Other bats I like are Gleyber Torres, DJ. LeMahieu, and Oswaldo Cabrera. 

MLB DFS Summary

I know I omitted Aaron Nola from my aces and it’s for good reason.  He just hasn’t looked sharp yet this season.  The Phillies have been a mess and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Rockies put up a big number vs. him tonight. 

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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MLBPremium

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 19)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

It’s Wednesday and that means we have day baseball!  Today we have a 10-game slate of MLB DFS.  At first glance, pitching is pretty brutal this afternoon.  Most teams are on the back end of their rotations. While that makes for a struggle to pick pitchers, it does make things a bit easier picking bits.  There will be plenty of options for our MLB DFS stacks today. 

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Justin Steele vs. Oakland Athletics

Picking on the A’s with pitchers this season will be a thing.  While they’ll occasionally show some glimpses of offense, they are bad.  Maybe even historically bad.  Against southpaws this season, they have an ISO under .100 and an OPS under .700. 

With Steele, we have someone pitching very well in 2023.  In his first 19 innings of work this season, he has a 26% k rate, a 1.42 ERA, and has done an excellent job of limiting any type of hard contact.  Hitters have just a 23% hard-hit rate vs. him this season.  This is a solid spot for Steele today.

Alex Cobb vs. Miami Marlins

As I said above, our options are pretty limited today.  That brings me to Alex Cobb.  The Marlins just aren’t a good lineup. Outside of Luis Arraez, they have little to no talent here.  If Cobb can navigate around Arraez today, he should do pretty well.  This is a Marlins lineup that has been below average vs. righties season.  They have a 25% K rate vs. them and an OPS under .700.  Nothing is a sure thing, but I do like Cobb’s chances of being able to do well here. 

Trevor Rogers vs. San Francisco Giants

I said pitching was bad today and I meant it.  The Giants have not been good vs. lefties this season.  The projected lineup today has a 26% k rate vs. lefties this season and has hit for almost no power.  They have a combined .078 ISO and a .257 wOBA.  All extremely poor numbers. 

Rogers hasn’t been that bad this season.  His xFIP is just 2.76 and has done his usual job of keeping the ball on the ground.  Hitters have a nearly 62% ground ball rate vs. him this season.  If he can continue to keep the ball on the ground today, there’s no reason to think he can’t be one of the top-scoring pitchers. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Madison Bumgarner

The Cardinals haven’t been the Cardinals of old so far this season, but oh what a matchup they get today.  Madbum is well on the tail end of his career.  The last few seasons have been brutal for the big fella and this season has been no different for him either.  Through his first 3 starts of the year, he’s given up 5 ER twice.  He’s statistically one of the worst pitchers in the game these days.  I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits here as he’s been bad vs. both sides of the plate. 

My Cardinals stack today will start with both Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.  They’re both extremely expensive and if I had to pick between the two, I’d go with Arenado.  That said, I’m going to try my hardest to find value today because both guys are in smash spots today.  Goldy hasn’t hit for much power yet vs. lefties this season, but his wOBA is pushing .400.  Arenado has an ISO of .273 vs. lefties so far in 2023. 

I’m also interested in guys like Tommy Edman, Wilson Contreras, and Tyler O’Neill.  All 3 will have the platoon advantage and have shown in the past that they can easily handle left-handed pitching.  While my lean so far has been the righties, every Cardinal is in play today.  This is as good of a spot for offense as we’ve seen for them this season. 

Cleveland Guardians vs. Spencer Turnbull

So far this season Spencer Turnbull has had some mixed results.  His first 2 outings of the year were a complete disaster, allowing a combined 12 ER.  He brought his A game in his last outing, allowing just 1 ER in 5 innings of work against a very inconsistent Toronto Blue Jays lineup.  Until he shows some consistency, I’m going to attack him with bats.  Lefties have so far been his weakness as they have a nearly .500 wOBA vs. him and a .276 ISO. 

I’m going to build my Guardians stack today around Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Josh Bell, and Will Brennan today.  With Ramirez, the power has yet to really show up for him this season.  Through the first 3 weeks of the season, he’s at just 1 homer.  They’ll flow soon for him and today could be the day against a pitcher that gives up a decent amount of flyballs. 

I also really like Josh Bell here.  He’s been arguably their best hitter so far this year.  Over the last week, he leads the team with 7 wRC.  His 9 hits and 5 RBI also lead the team.  For value, we’ll look to Brennan.  His price is under $3k and will free up a lot of salary for us today and he should still be able to produce.  Andres Gimenez is also a bat I like here.  He’s got a plethora of talent and could be one of the top bats on the slate. 

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Austin Gomber

Austin Gomber is coming off back-to-back brutal starts.  Over those 2 starts, he’s allowed a combined 10 ER, one of which was against the lowly Washington Nationals.  While he hasn’t been getting hit too hard, he’s been giving up way too many flyballs.  His flyball rate in 2023 is pushing 50%.  Playing in Coors, giving up that many flyballs is asking for trouble. I’m going to focus mostly on the righties here.  His flyball rate climbs from 36% against lefties to 50% vs. righties.  He also gives up more hard contact vs. righties. 

I’ll start my Pirates stack today with Brian Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen, and Carlos Santana.  These 3 hit at the top of the lineup and have historically done well against southpaws.  The top bat here is obviously Reynolds as he’s one of the top young bats in all of baseball.  Santana has been a big producer for this team.  Over the last week, he leads the team in RBI and should continue to produce today in a smash spot. 

I also like Connor Joe and Ke’Bryan Hayes here.  Joe, playing against his former team, has done very well vs. lefties so far this season.  He has a .308 ISO vs. them and a .463 wOBA.  He’s also very affordable at $3.8k today. 

MLB DFS Summary

We’ll want to be careful today navigating our pitching.  It’s tough sledding out there and most pitchers have a ton of risk.  There’s no shortage of bats though as we have some really bad pitchers throwing today.  I’ll be loading up on Cards and Pirates today. 

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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MLBPremium

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 17)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

Happy Monday Funday!  Tonight have a nice-sized 9-game slate of MLB DFS.  We have a couple of studs on the mounds that we’ll need to decide on.  We also have some arms in the mid-salary range that look extremely appealing.  This is shaping up to be an extremely fun slate of MLB DFS.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jacob deGrom vs. Kansas City Royals

This is essentially a rematch of deGrom’s last outing.  A week ago, deGrom faced this same Royals team.  He had a really good outing, but it was nothing special.  He finished that game with 9 strikeouts over 7 innings of work and allowed 2 ER.  I’d expect more of the same tonight against the Royals. 

Normally we shy away from taking a pitcher throwing against the same team in back-to-back starts.  But not with deGrom.  He’s a different breed.  He can face the same lineup 5 straight days and still strike out 9-10 batters.  I’m locking him in tonight as my SP1. 

Kevin Gausman vs. Houston Astros

The Houston offense this season has so far looked very average and inconsistent.  After scoring 8 runs on Saturday, they were shut down yesterday by a combination of Andrew Heaney and the Rangers bullpen.  This is a lineup that can be taken advantage of in the right situations and tonight’s one of them.  They’ve struggled vs. righties, as they have a 24% k rate and just a .105 ISO. 

Gausman himself has been exceptional to start the season.  He’s sporting a 32% k rate and a 2.62 xFIP.  He’s been doing a great job of keeping the ball on the ground too as hitters have a nearly 50% ground ball rate vs. him.  It’s far from a safe pick, but I really like the chances of Gausman having a solid outing vs. the Astros tonight. 

Corbin Burnes vs. Seattle Mariners

I’m considering taking a flyer on Burnes tonight.  After opening the season with 2 duds, he returned to form in his last out, going 8 strong innings allowing 0 runs and striking out 8.  The Diamondbacks’ lineup this season has been surprisingly good and dominating them may be what he needed to shake out of the funk that he started the season in. This is far from a safe pick though as the Mariners have been strong.

If you’re feeling a little frisky tonight, give Kyle Freeland a try.  He’s only $7.1k and has been pitching pretty well, especially at home.  He’s coming off back-to-back starts allowing a combined 2 ER against the Nats and the Cards.  We also have the case where the first games in Colorado are typically low scoring.  Add in the fact that it’s the Pirates, things really set up well for him tonight.  

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chris Flexen

For the first time this season, I’m going back to a team that has won me a considerable amount of money over the last few seasons.  The Milwaukee Brewers get the gift of facing off against Chris Flexen tonight.  After starting out the year with a solid performance vs. the Guardians, things have gone south fast for Flexen. 

In his last outing vs. the Cubs, Flexen gave up 8 ER in 2 innings of work.  Now some of that was inflated because the wind was blowing out heavily in Chicago in that one, but Flexen is not a good pitcher and one I often attack.  With Flexen, we want to get some of the righty bats in.  He’s historically been a reverse splits pitcher and this season has been no different.  Righties have a .321 ISO vs. him compared to just .050 for the lefties. 

With that said, I’m starting off my Brewers stack with Willy Adames and William Contrares.  Adames is my favorite of the 2 as he’s crushed righties so far in this young season.  Through his first 50+ plate appearances vs. righties. Adames has a .250 ISO and a .391 wOBA.  He’s not a righty, but I absolutely love Rowdy Tellez here.  He’s been smashing the ball all year and should tonight as well.  He’s up to 5 dongs and 12 RBI.   Other bats I like here will be Mike Brosseau, Garrett Mitchell, and Christian Yelich. 

Colorado Rockies vs. Dick Mountain

Rich Hill has had a storied career that feels like it has spanned decades.  Well, he is in his third different decade pitching so it has been decades.  Father time appears to be catching up to him though as his 2023 season has not been good.  My biggest reason for chasing against Hill tonight is that flyball rate of his.  So far this season, Hill has a 51% flyball rate. 

In an environment such as Coors, giving up flyballs half the time means there is a significantly higher likelihood of homers.  The ball just travels farther at a higher altitude. He’s been getting crushed, and I mean crushed by righties this season.  They have a .412 wOBA and a .426 ISO. 

My Rockies stack will be tailored around Kris Bryant, CJ Cron, and Elias Diaz.  Bryant is my favorite as he’s been solid vs. lefties to start the year.  In a small sample size, he has a .286 ISO vs. them.  If we go back to the start of last season, even though he missed a good chunk of it, he had similar numbers so we know we aren’t chasing with him.  Cron is another bat that profiles really well here.  He’s historically done well against lefties and has extremely strong numbers vs. lefty curveballs.  In theory, he should do well here. Other bats I’ll look to get in here will be Yonathan Daza, Ezequial Tovar, and Elehuris Montero. 

Texas Rangers vs. Jordan Lyles

Jordan Lyles is a lister.  He’s on a list of pitchers that we keep for pitchers that should be stacked against.  I preach this all the time.  We attack pitchers that give up a high amount of contact and a high amount of fly balls.  So far this season, Lyles has an 86% contact rate and a 46% flyball rate.  These are extremely attackable numbers.  I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits against Lyles.  He’s been historically bad against both sides of the plate. 

With the Rangers tonight, I’m going to build around Marcus Semien, Nate Lowe, Jonah Heim, and Josh Jung.  Over the last week, Heim leads the team with 6 wRC.  His 1.219 OPS also leads the time by quite a margin.  At $3.2k on DK, he’s a steal tonight.  Lowe has also been really good and I would not be surprised to see him take Lyles deep tonight.  His 52% flyball rate + Lyles exaggerated flyball mean there will be lots of balls in the air tonight. 

Other bats I’ll look to here will be Adolis Garcia, Robbie Grossman, and Leody Tavares.  Tavares is someone that although can be cold at times, showed last season he could be a game-changer. 

MLB DFS Summary

This is shaping up to be a fun slate tonight.  There are some pitchers in good spots and some bats in really good spots.  Milwaukee is my team I’ll be building my bats around. 

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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NBA

NBA Ghost’s Gems for Western Conference Round 1

DFSGhost
written by DFSGhost

The NBA Playoffs are officially under way! Yes, the Play-In tournament got us kicked off a few days ago. But the conventional one through eight matchups began last night. The Western Conference matchups are much more even than those in the Eastern Conference. Moreover, many NBA Championship contenders are featured in this one.

With the NBA Play-In tournament now over, here is the updated bracket for the Western Conference:

The fantasy sports landscape shifts drastically throughout the NBA Playoffs. Rotations are much more condensed, while teams are quick to shorten their bench. As previously mentioned, rotation notes, player breakdowns, analytical advantages, and key x-factors are all discussed. The x-factor will not be the best player on the team, but rather, someone that will provide an edge in both fantasy sports and on the court in real time.

Be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Denver Nuggets (1) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)

Denver Nuggets (-500 to win series)

Introduction

After an opening round loss to the eventual NBA Champions last season, the Nuggets stormed out of the gate this year and never looked back. Nikola Jokic averaged a near triple-double while leading his team to the #1 seed in a competitive Western Conference. One can only hope the injury woes of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are behind them for what should be a deep playoff run.

Matchup

Despite the acquisition of Rudy Gobert, Minnesota still ranked 17th in points allowed in the paint per game and a disastrous 27th in rebounding. Thus, the matchup bodes well for MVP candidate, Nikola Jokic. Elsewhere, Jamal Murray will look to get the best of veteran Mike Conley on the perimeter, while the best statistical matchup is for Michael Porter Jr., who will see a ton of Anthony Edwards.

Rotation

The back-to-back NBA MVP will be a staple point in this offensive flow. Moreover, Jamal Murray looks healthy and is poised for a big role on what hopes to be a lengthy playoff run. Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon flank the wings, while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope plays the role of spot-up shooter from behind the arc. Elsewhere, Bruce Brown is a versatile player in this rotation, while Christian Braun, Zeke Nnaji, and veterans Reggie Jackson and Jeff Green round out the rotation.

X-Factor

Aside from the duo of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon is the x-factor to this series for Denver. A matchup looms against Karl-Anthony Towns, and other wings in smaller Minnesota lineups, such as Kyle Anderson and Taurean Prince. However, Gordon will have to get his offensive game going early and often. Jokic will surely be double-teamed on nearly every possession, and there is only so many shots for Jamal Murray to take. Gordon’s versatility outweighs the inconsistency of Michael Porter Jr., making the former of more impact than the latter.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+375 to win series)

Introduction

The Minnesota overhaul was a disaster. Rudy Gobert was acquired in the offseason for far too many assets, and it simply has not worked out. This offense is stagnant, relying on Anthony Edwards in isolation far too often. Meanwhile, the defensive unit has been mediocre at best. Despite making it through Oklahoma City in the Play-In, there is little to like about this roster heading into the opening round.

Matchup

Despite making it through the Play-In tournament, things don’t get any easier for Minnesota. The Nuggets have a good roster when everyone is healthy, and this team looks to be in its best form after the regular season they had. However, there is an opportunity to Minnesota to take advantage on the perimeter. The issue is trusting the likes of Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns regularly, let alone the rest of this rotation.

Rotation

Expect to see as much Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns as you ever have in these NBA Playoffs. Moreover, Rudy Gobert will anchor the paint in a matchup versus Nikola Jokic and Mike Conley will run point. Kyle Anderson and Taurean Prince will play impactful minutes, whether in the starting lineup or off the bench. Nickeil Alexander-Walker earned a starting spot in the final game of the Play-In, while Jordan McLaughlin will check in off the bench, only if necessary.

X-Factor

Both Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley will be of extreme importance to Minnesota in this series. However, the latter gets the nod as the x-factor with his role on both ends of the floor. Not only will Conley have to keep Jamal Murray at bay, but he will need to attack on the other side. Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards will lead the team in usage rate, but Conley needs to be efficient in his time on the court if the Timberwolves stand a chance.

Memphis Grizzlies (2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (7)

Memphis Grizzlies (-140 to win series)

Introduction

After a disappointing exit to the eventual NBA Champions last season, Memphis is back on the big stage. It does not come without concern though, as Steven Adams missing the postseason is a huge hole to fill. However, Jaren Jackson Jr. is a Defensive Player of the Year finalist and needs to prove he can handle a matchup against Anthony Davis in this series. Ja Morant leads the charge for a team that will certainly face adversity from the get-go.

Matchup

A matchup versus the Lakers gives Ja Morant the best chance to take over a series. While Austin Reaves is a quality defender, the Lakers finished the season 29th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers and 28th versus crafty finishers at the position. However, the true mismatch lies in the paint. Memphis takes a huge hit on the glass and in interior defense with Steven Adams ruled out. Thus, hoping that Jaren Jackson Jr. is not only up to the task, but that he’s able to stay out of foul trouble versus Anthony Davis is more than enough cause for concern.

Rotation

Ja Morant and Desmond Bane will log a ton of minutes in the backcourt. Flanked by Dillon Brooks and Jaren Jackson Jr., the Grizzlies have a strong core. However, in the absences of both Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke, Jackson Jr. will shift to the ‘5’ at times. Not only will he be forced to guard Anthony Davis, but the former needs to stay out of foul trouble; something he has not proven in his young career. Moreover, Tyus Jones will play a crucial role off the bench, while Luke Kennard and John Konchar pick up a few minutes on the wing. Xavier Tillman will need to step up in the absence of Adams and Clarke, with Santi Aldama being the fallback option.

X-Factor

Just as Ja Morant comes into this series with something to prove, Desmond Bane cannot go unnoticeable for multiple games. There is no doubt that the Lakers will key in on Morant. Thus, Bane needs to be able to not only provide offense, but create his own shots and create for others when he handles the rock. Being able to get open off the ball will be crucial, as Morant will be forced to find his teammates more often than he is used to in this series.

Los Angeles Lakers (+120 to win series)

Introduction

After making it through the Play-In tournament after a single game, the Lakers now turn their attention to the Grizzlies. Outside of Los Angeles fans, most have Memphis winning this series with ease. However, there is a clear path to the Lakers winning this one. By utilizing Anthony Davis as much as possible, the Lakers can wreck havoc for Memphis on the inside. Moreover, LeBron James looks for a fifth NBA Championship, while the front office acquired multiple contributors to a potential run.

Matchup

The key to this matchup will be in the paint. Yes, Memphis has a quality roster along the perimeter, both in their starting unit and off the bench. However, with Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke both nursing injuries, Anthony Davis needs to dominate on the interior and the glass, while LeBron James needs to attack the rim every chance he gets.

Rotation

This Lakers rotation is surprisingly deep thanks to an overhaul at the trade deadline. Alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves will play prominent minutes. Moreover, Jarred Vanderbilt and his defensive ability will earn him significant run. Rounding out the rotation are Dennis Schroder, Rui Hachimura, Malik Beasley, and Tory Brown Jr. 

X-Factor

LeBron James and Anthony Davis look to shock the NBA community with a series win over Memphis. However, they will not be able to do it without Austin Reaves containing Ja Morant for multiple games. The breakout Laker will be tasked with guarding Memphis’ primary ball handler and will need to force him into bad shots. Moreover, Reaves’ offensive ability through attacking the likes of Tyus Jones, Desmond Bane, and Dillon Brooks on the other side of the ball makes him the key to a series win.

Sacramento Kings (3) vs. Golden State Warriors (6)

Sacramento Kings (+225 to win series)

Introduction

Light the Beam! Sacramento will be making their first NBA Playoffs appearances since 2005-2006. After trading Tyrese Haliburton for Domantas Sabonis, many had the Kings listed for a top pick in the upcoming draft lottery. However, this group had other plans. Behind career years from De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, this will be the most fun series of the entire opening round.

Matchup

The Warriors put up a lot of points, but they give up a ton as well. This is right up Sacramento’s alley, as they have done that all season long. However, the key to this series will be the first two games. Golden State struggled mightily on the road, and there may not be a louder building than Sacramento in the entire Playoffs. Look for De’Aaron Fox to score and create on every possession, as the Warriors ranked 24th to primary ball handlers and 27th to crafty finishers at the guard position.

Rotation

The core of De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and Harrison Barnes will see the most minutes. However, after that, things could get interesting. Yes, Kevin Huerter and Keegan Murray will continue to start for the majority, if not every game this series. However, with the Warriors potentially going back to their roots of a smaller closeout lineup, look for Malik Monk to see a ton of run in this one. Moreover, Davion Mitchell gives Sacramento a quality on-ball defender, while Trey Lyles will be the first big man off the bench.

X-Factor

While this may be breaking the rules of the section, De’Aaron Fox is simply too important not to highlight. Yes, Domantas Sabonis was outstanding this season and led the NBA in both rebounds per game and total rebounds. However, it is Fox that will have to keep pace with Steph Curry on the other side. Following a career year where he was still snubbed from the All-Star game, Fox is looking to make waves in his first career playoff appearance and has the biggest stage of any guard in the opening round.

Golden State Warriors (-275 to win series)

Introduction

In an eventful season, the core of the dynasty remains. This was certainly a tighter race in the Western Conference than anticipated, and the Warriors were a mere two losses from being in the Play-In. Nonetheless, this is a team ready to make waves and has a clear path to yet another NBA Finals.

Matchup

While Sacramento had a career year in all facets of the season, their offense was simply outstanding. Not only did they finish first in offensive rating, but they posted a league-best 120.7 points per game. However, with an elite offense came a poor defense. The Kings finished 26th in defensive rating and struggled mightily on the wings and versus primary ball handlers. Domantas Sabonis is a beast in the paint and on the glass, but this is a pristine matchup for Curry and company.

Rotation

The Splash Bros will log a ton of minutes in this backcourt. However, with Andrew Wiggins returning in time for the NBA Playoffs since missing two months of action, others will need to step up. Donte DiVincenzo will get minutes on the wing, and Jordan Poole will get a ton of run off the bench as well when Thompson shifts to the wing. Moreover, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney will be tasked with a matchup versus Domantas Sabonis, while Gary Payton II and Jonathan Kuminga round out the rotation in sparing minutes.

X-Factor

Poised for another run at a Championship, the Warriors may have the toughest road than they ever have. The true x-factor in this series will be Jordan Poole. After winning Sixth Man of the Year last season, Poole averaged two more points per game this year while appearing in all 82 games for the Warriors. However, in a series versus the Kings, Poole will have to be able to be an effective secondary scorer if Golden State wants to keep pace. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson will lead the charge, but if Poole cannot outduel Malik Monk on the other side, it will be a quick out for the reigning NBA Champions.

Phoenix Suns (4) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (5)

Phoenix Suns (-500 to win series)

Introduction

Expectations need to be held in check for this Suns roster. Yes, they acquired Kevin Durant. However, not only has their starting unit played few minutes together, but their bench is not up to standards of others. Luckily, it is not a bench that wins the NBA Playoffs, but the starting unit. The core of Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Deandre Ayton is one of, if not the best of remaining teams. However, this roster is a single injury or bad matchup away from falling short of an NBA Championship.

Matchup

Despite having two of the best defenders of this generation on the same roster, Los Angeles has not shown the ability to win tight games for a full series. Largely due to the absence of one, if not both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, the Clippers finished 17th in defensive rating this season. Moreover, they continued to struggle versus primary ball handlers, finishing 28th in the NBA. While Kawhi Leonard is capable of shutting down Kevin Durant, there is simply too much firepower on this Suns roster in the absence of Paul George.

Rotation

The core of Paul, Booker, Durant, and Ayton will soak up the majority of minutes for Phoenix. Moreover, Josh Okogie will take over the defensive responsibility left by Mikal Bridges in his departure to Brooklyn. The bench will be shallow, but look for Landry Shamet, Torrey Craig, and Cameron Payne (when healthy) to be first off the bench. Lastly, Terrence Ross and TJ Warren are options on the wing, while one of Bismack Biyombo or Jock Landale can sub in for Deandre Ayton in a limited capacity.

X-Factor

This offense is littered with elite options. Kevin Durant joins an established core of Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton. However, it is the savvy veteran running point that will need to be an x-factor in this series. Firstly, the matchup is as good as it gets. For years, the Clippers have struggled to guard primary ball handlers. Not only is CP3 one of the best to do it during his career, but of all time. Secondly, this offense had little time to familiarize itself before getting to the biggest stage of an NBA season. Thus, Paul can provide both stability and production with the ball in his hands by finding open teammates and limiting isolation possessions down the stretch.

Los Angeles Clippers (+375 to win series)

Introduction

In what was deemed a contender for years to come since Kawhi Leonard and Paul George joined forces, this roster has failed to live up to expectations. The main reason for their downfall has been injuries. After missing the entire season last year, Kawhi appeared in a mere 52 games for Los Angeles. Moreover, he has not played more than 60 games since 2016-2017. Paul George has been no better, appearing in 56 or less games in every year since he arrived to Los Angeles. This team has a strong foundation, but concerns loom.

Matchup

Phoenix is not the same team as they were for the majority of the regular season. Not only are both Devin Booker and Chris Paul healthy, but the acquisition of Kevin Durant makes this a roster capable of winning an NBA Championship. However, Kawhi Leonard has been one of the best playoff performers of this generation. Moreover, the Suns are vulnerable in the paint with Deandre Ayton and a combination of Bismack Biyombo and Jock Landale off the bench. Lastly, the Clippers need to attack individual matchups versus Booker, Craig, and bench players to spark offensive opportunities.

Rotation

Coach Ty Lue is notorious for rotation changes. Since leaving Cleveland, where he won an NBA Championship with LeBron James in 2016, Lue has become a much better game manager. Kawhi Leonard will have to log as many minutes as his body can handle in the absence of Paul George. However, the surrounding cast will have to step up. Lue has veteran options in Nic Batum, Marcus Morris Sr., and Robert Covington. Both Mason Plumlee and Ivica Zubac will get to man the paint. Meanwhile, Norman Powell and Terance Mann will see increased roles with George out for the series. However, both Eric Gordon and Bones Hyland give Lue more options at the ‘2’. Lastly, Russell Westbrook will have to be his best if Los Angeles stands a chance at winning a game, let alone the series.

X-Factor

In the absence of Paul George, no one is as important to the Clippers as Kawhi Leonard. However, others will need to step up as well. Thus, Norman Powell is the x-factor in this series. While he has an abysmal matchup, he can score in bunches. Lining up against Kevin Durant is no joke, but Powell has the ability to play well off-ball to get open in a matchup versus Devin Booker. Moreover, Powell averaged 17 points per game off the bench this season. In a starting role, he will have to alleviate some of the pressure off Kawhi.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

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UFCPremium

Al’s Fight Night Deep Dive for UFC on ESPN 44

Allan Fabrykant
written by Allan Fabrykant

UFC on ESPN 44

HOLLOWAY V ALLEN

After a whirlwind of a card last week, we are off to Kansas City to catch today’s UFC on ESPN card! Today’s action will kick off at 5:30 PM ET. Rematches, rising prospects and long-awaited returns. This card has a lot of close and interesting matchups for us to enjoy!! Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 14 fights that will end with a matchup between two top 5 fighters in the UFC Featherweight division. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 5:30 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both usually active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC on ESPN 44 Holloway vs Allen.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Edson Barboza vs Billy Quarantillo

Let’s get this out of the way first, Barboza has been slipping a bit as of late. Although, it was against strong competition, he did lose his last two fights, whereas Billy Q has won two of his last three. This is all to say that I don’t think previous fight results tell the tale of how this fight is going to go. I think talent will. Barboza holds two black belts in both Muy Thai and Taekwondo as well as a Brown Belt in BJJ while Billy only has a Black belt in BJJ. Now, some would look at this fight and say that Barboza is simply too old, and that it’s a major reason for his decline and although he is 37, Billy is 34. Barboza’s age may have taken him out of the title conversation but it hasn’t made him uncompetitive. Not to mention, I haven’t been fully comfortable betting on Billy since I saw his loss to Tucker. In what seemed like a close fight on paper, Billy Q was absolutely dismantled in every aspect of MMA for 15 minutes, he was outstruck, he has no successful takedowns despite three attempts and was taken down seven times. I think Barboza can produce a similar result here where he is one step ahead of Billy for the entire 15 minutes.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Edson Barboza UNANIMOUS DECISION.

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Zak Cummings vs. Ed Herman

Both of these fighters are middle of the roster at this point and it is not likely that either will ever compete for a title given their age. Herman has only been in the Octagon twice since 2019 and in his most recent fight nearly two years ago, he lost via unanimous decision to Alonzo Mennifield. The same can be said for Cummings as he hasn’t fought since 2020. Now, although Cummings is moving up in weight, Herman doesn’t really hold any size or reach advantage. I also see better fundamentals out of Cummings compared to Herman. Especially as Herman got older (he’s 42 now) he’s throwing more looping punches and has had some seriously concerning cardio in his last fight. Both fighters hold BJJ Black Belts with Cummings having a higher degree belt however, I don’t see that being much of a factor here. I think we will have 15 minutes of stand up where Herman will eventually slow down and Cummings will take control of the fighy.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Zak Cummings UNANIMOUS DECISION.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Gaston Bolanos vs. Aaron Phillips

“DreamKiller” Bolanos is set to make his UFC debut tonight against Aaron Phillips, a fighter who is coming off a loss upon his return to the UFC. Both Bolanos and Phillips are proficient in Kicking martial arts with Bolanos being a professional Muy Thai fighter prior to jumping into MMA and Phillips holding a 4th degree Black Belt in Taekwondo. Prior to entering the UFC, Bolanos competed in the Bellator organization where he racked up a record of 6 wins and 3 losses including a spinning elbow KO and an incredible right hook knockout with one second left in the round during his last fight under the Bellator banner. That performance earned him a shot in the UFC and considering some of the matchups other fighters have gotten in their UFC debuts, Bolanos really lucked out. Despite four fights, Phillips does not hold a single UFC win, nor does he hold a win against a single strong fighter. Many of Phillips’ opponents held losing records when he fought them and none of his wins have had any UFC experience. It is safe to say that the jump in competition when one enters the UFC is very significant and Phillips has not proven that he can compete in that level. I think that Bolanos is very game and will try to put this one away early.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Gaston Bolanos FIRST-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Max Holloway 5 ROUNDER

Dustin Jacoby (Azmat Murzakanov is undefeated but this is a massive step up in competition for him, if anyone is taking that zero from him, it’ll be Jacoby. With that being said, Muzakanov is a decent GPP play but I still expect Jacoby to get it done)

Ion Cutelaba (Tanner Boser is terrible, since his fight against Arlovski, I’ve never had faith in him again, and he’s proven me right time and time again by losing to Illir Latifi and Rodrigo Nascimento)

Chris Gutierrez

Bill Algeo

Rafa Garcia

Matheus Nicolau (I do like Brandon Royval as an underdog here as well. He’s a solid Deep GPP play)

Piera Rodriguez (This one is close, many would lead towards Robertson because of her strong grappling but I think Piera has a decided advantage on the feet and can keep the fight there. I wouldn’t put money on this fight as there are too many unknowns but both fighters can hold DFS value)

Daniel Zellhuber

Bruna Brasil

Lucie Pudilova (Her opponent Edwards came in 0.5 lbs overweight)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

Gaston Bolanos to Finish +115

Max Holloway -250

Bill Algeo -450


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NBA

NBA Ghost’s Gems for Eastern Conference Round 1

DFSGhost
written by DFSGhost

The NBA Playoffs are officially under way! Yes, the Play-In tournament got us kicked off a few days ago. But the conventional one through eight matchups begin tonight. The Eastern Conference is much more lopsided than the Western Conference, but there will be many good battles every night.

With the NBA Play-In tournament now over, here is the updated bracket for the Eastern Conference:

The fantasy sports landscape shifts drastically throughout the NBA Playoffs. Rotations are much more condensed, while teams are quick to shorten their bench. As previously mentioned, rotation notes, player breakdowns, analytical advantages, and key x-factors are all discussed below. The x-factor will not be the best player on the team, but rather, someone that will provide an edge in both fantasy sports and on the court in real time.

Be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Milwaukee Bucks (1) vs. Miami Heat (8)

Milwaukee Bucks (-1200 to win series)

Introduction

After being dethroned as Conference Champions and NBA Champions last season, the Bucks bounced back with their most successful regular season since 2018-2019. Moreover, Giannis Antetokounmpo is an MVP candidate, following a career-high 31.1 points per game. This roster is stout on both ends of the court, with their only drawback being clutch shooting down the stretch via shot creation.

Matchup

From a defensive standpoint, Miami has the ability to match up with nearly every NBA roster. However, the Bucks are a different beast. Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the most unguardable players the league has to offer. Moreover, Brook Lopez has been terrific both in the paint and from behind the arc. Factor in Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton, two excellent two-way players, and there is simply too much to contain on a nightly basis. Each player has a respectable defender in front of them, but Miami is most vulnerable on the wing.

Rotation

After winning an NBA Championship only two season ago, Milwaukee is poised for another deep playoff run. Led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, this roster also features quality two-way players in Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez. Despite missing 49 games this season, Khris Middleton is set to contribute early and often, while Pat Connaughton and Grayson Allen will flank the wings at times. Moreover, Bobby Portis Jr. will be the first big man off the bench, while Jae Crowder and Joe Ingles give Milwaukee veteran options off the bench, if necessary. Jevon Carter may spell Jrue Holiday at times, but don’t count on big minutes at rotations get tighter.

X-Factor

Despite their shortcomings on offense, the Heat’s defensive unit is no joke. Thus, the biggest x-factor in this series will be Brook Lopez. After finishing second in the NBA in blocks per game, Lopez received a nomination for Defensive Player of the Year. Moreover, he had his best shooting season since 2018-2019. In a matchup versus Bam Adebayo, it will be up to Lopez to control the paint on both ends of the court, with the obvious help of Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Miami Heat (+750 to win series)

Introduction

It took a game longer than expected, but Miami made the NBA Playoffs. However, this team looks to be one of, if not the worst team remaining. Shockingly enough, they have some quality players where they should not be in this situation, but here they are. Their offense struggled mightily all season long and continued to do so in the Play-In, making their outlook far from optimistic.

Matchup

This is far from a good matchup for the Heat. Milwaukee’s interior defense is one of, if not the best in the NBA. Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez await in the paint, while Jrue Holiday puts the clamps on the perimeter. Moreover, Miami plays awfully slow and were the lowest scoring team of the year, creating a hard enough situation thanks to their own shortcomings on offense.

Rotation

The Heat will only go as far as Butler, Adebayo, and Herro take them. Elsewhere, look for Max Strus, Kyle Lowry, Kevin Love, and Caleb Martin to see decent run. For some reason, the Heat are insistent on Gabe Vincent starting, but he will continue to have little impact. Other candidates would be Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller, but their minutes will vary from game to game.

X-Factor

The off-ball guards will be crucial for Miami. Jimmy Butler will have to force Giannis to guard him on the perimeter to create space for his teammates, but he himself is far from elite out there. Moreover, Bam Adebayo will have his hands full with Brook Lopez on the inside, while Jrue Holiday lines up on Tyler Herro. Thus, the duo of Kyle Lowry and Max Strus will have to make every shot count to keep this series close.

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Atlanta Hawks (7)

Boston Celtics (-1200 to win series)

Introduction

Following a disappointing loss in the NBA Finals to the Warriors, Boston came back stronger this season. As a team, Boston won six more games this season than they did last year. Moreover, both Tatum and Brown saw increases in their scoring outputs. This roster is sound from top to bottom, and it will come down to avoiding poor performances when it matters most.

Matchup

No matter which way you look at it, Boston matches up well versus Atlanta. They have multiple elite perimeter defenders to counter the Hawks’ star backcourt, while having formidable defenders on the inside as well. Moreover, a one-two scoring punch of Tatum and Brown is one of the best these NBA Playoffs have to offer. Add in two-way players such as Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon, whose games are tailored to the playoffs and Boston is in for a serious run.

Rotation

Make no mistake about it, the core of a team that won the Eastern Conference has returned from last season. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are coming off terrific seasons and will anchor their team once again. Moreover, Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon are terrific two-way options for another playoff run. Al Horford and Robert Williams III will anchor the paint, while Grant Williams and Derrick White round out the rotation.

X-Factor

The key parts to this Boston rotation will all play important roles in this series. However, assuming both Smart and Brogdon clamp Trae Young, Al Horford and Robert Williams III will be crucial on the inside. Both John Collins and Clint Capela are terrific as the roll man in a pick-and-roll offense. Moreover, Atlanta has shooters on the outside to make Boston pay for defensive mistakes. The interior duo will have to be sharp on the glass and with paint defense, making this a series built for Robert Williams III.

Atlanta Hawks (+750 to win series)

Introduction

After their win in the Play-In, Atlanta dodged a matchup versus Giannis and the Bucks in the opening round. However, things do not get any easier, as Boston are the defending Conference champions and are set on making another deep playoff run. Barring extreme circumstances, Atlanta looks destined for yet another early exit, which could bring massive changes in the offseason.

Matchup

Individual and collective matchups do not favor the Hawks. On the perimeter, Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon will be a problem for Trae Young. Moreover, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will be tough to contain, considering De’Andre Hunter can only guard one of them. Truthfully, Dejounte Murray will have to keep Brown at bay if they want the slightest chance of winning this series, and while it will happen for a game or two, Boston has too big of an edge in all facets of the game.

Rotation

Trae Young and Dejounte Murray lead a star-studded backcourt, surrounded by quality role players. De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, and Clint Capela likely round out the starting unit in this one. Meanwhile, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Saddiq Bey, and Onyeka Okongwu round out the rest of the rotation.

X-Factor

With Trae Young having to deal with one of Marcus Smart or Malcolm Brogdon for every minute that he is on the court, Dejounte Murray will have to step up in a big way. If Atlanta wants to succeed in this series, Young needs to be just as good off the ball as he is with it, and Murray needs to be an exemplary playmaker. The pick-and-roll is just as useful with Murray and it is Young, and the former is an excellent counterpart to the rebounding abilities of Boston’s guards.

Philadelphia 76ers (3) vs. Brooklyn Nets (6)

Philadelphia 76ers (-1000 to win series)

Introduction

It truly is Championship or bust for the 76ers at this point. Not only did they acquire James Harden to flank Joel Embiid, but this roster is built to win now. Aside from Tyrese Maxey, there is no young, promising talent on this team. However, with Boston, Milwaukee, and Cleveland standing in their way, the road to the NBA Finals is as hard as it ever will be for Philadelphia.

Matchup

The matchup for Philadelphia is decent here. Mikal Bridges will be a pain to deal with on the outside, but everything will have to funnel through Joel Embiid in the paint. Nic Claxton is no slouch around the rim, but with the way Embiid gets foul calls in his favor every night, there is a mismatch there. However, where the 76ers could find themselves in trouble is if the surrounding group are not hitting their shots. Assuming Bridges keeps Harden in check, it will be up to Melton, Maxey, and Harris to pitch in on the scoring sheet, something that has held Philadelphia back in the past.

Rotation

Joel Embiid will man the paint for the bulk of the minutes. Moreover, James Harden will have his minutes staggered at times so at least one is on the court at all times, but the two will be featured together a lot. Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey will be the secondary scoring options, while De’Anthony Melton provides a combination of perimeter defense and three-point shooting. Philadelphia also has the luxury of using Jalen McDaniels to spell Harris, while PJ Tucker will be a primary defender throughout the series. Georges Niang and Shake Milton will see minutes as they fit, which won’t be very often.

X-Factor

While the duo of James Harden and Joel Embiid will lead the charge on offense, Tyrese Maxey has the potential to have the biggest impact in this series. Harden will draw coverage from Mikal Bridges, who is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. The pick-and-roll will be utilized a ton here to feature Embiid, but Maxey will find himself with open lanes to the rim off the ball when Embiid kicks to the outside.

Brooklyn Nets (+650 to win series)

Introduction

What was supposed to be a Championship season for the Brooklyn Nets took a turn for the worse. Their Big 3 of James Harden, Kevin Durant, and Kyrie Irving was initially broken up when Harden was dealt for Ben Simmons. However, following multiple occasions of Irving having off-court issues, he was dealt to Dallas, while Durant found himself in Phoenix. However, there is a silver lining to the situation. Brooklyn received who could be the very best, if not one of the best 3-and-D wings in the NBA in Mikal Bridges. While they had a losing record after the trade, Bridges posted 26.1 points per game in 27 appearances for the Nets.

Matchup

This is a tough matchup for Brooklyn but it is certainly winnable. The key will be to switch the right offensive option onto James Harden and for said player to knock down shots when they come. Sounds simple enough, right? Well, not quite. The 76ers now quietly have multiple elite perimeter defenders in De’Anthony Melton and Jalen McDaniels. Meanwhile, while his offensive game is as useless as they come, PJ Tucker will likely get the first chance to guard Mikal Bridges. Lastly, Joel Embiid awaits in the paint, which is self-explanatory.

Rotation

The Nets will be in tough to find the right rotation to match Philadelphia. However, Nic Claxton needs to be out there for every minute that Joel Embiid is. Moreover, Mikal Bridges and Spender Dinwiddie seem poised to carry the bulk of minutes. Both Cam Johnson and Royce O’Neale make for good two-ways options, while the former has far more upside offensively. Lastly, Seth Curry and Joe Harris can provide scoring off the bench, while Dorian Finney-Smith will be needed as a perimeter defender. Two young talents in Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe await their chance, but it’s unlikely to be here.

X-Factor

Make no mistake about it, the Nets will only go as far as Mikal Bridges can take them. His game is a perfect fit for the NBA Playoffs, but this is reserved for players who are not the top talent on their respective rosters. Thus, Spencer Dinwiddie makes the cut. Not only did he have interesting takes on FanDuel TV recently, but he has a lot to prove. Dinwiddie has been on four teams in the last four years and needs to take control of this offense. The 76ers are exploitable in switches on James Harden, and Dinwiddie will have to find a way to take advantage when opportunities arise.

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. New York Knicks (5)

Cleveland Cavaliers (-200 to win series)

Introduction

After the acquisition of Donovan Mitchell, expectations skyrocketed for this young Cavaliers team. Surrounded by quality veterans, this team is poised to make a deep run in the NBA Playoffs. While their core four are young, the Cavaliers excel on both ends of the court. Not only can they beat you multiple ways offensively, but they have the best defensive unit statistically this season. In what could be a surprise to some, Cleveland are darkhorse Championship contenders.

Matchup

While the Knicks’ defense is far from elite, they are no slouch as a unit either. Collectively, New York finished 19th in defensive rating and 13th in points per game allowed. However, their true strength is on the glass, finishing second in the NBA in rebounding percentage. The Cavaliers match up well though, with both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen leading the charge. Donovan Mitchell figures to lead the charge here in all facets of the offense. Most notably, New York finished 27th in three-pointers allowed per game.

Rotation

Despite having a star-studded starting lineup, the Cavaliers’ bench is thin. Thus, do not expect a ton of surprising minutes here. The backcourt will feature two of the NBA’s young talent in Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. Moreover, Cleveland has another young duo in the frontcourt with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. While one of Lamar Stevens or Isaac Okoro will presumably start games on the wing, Caris LeVert will see more minutes than both of them. Rounding out the rotation will be Dean Wade, Ricky Rubio, and Cedi Osman.

X-Factor

While Donovan Mitchell is the real difference-maker, top players will be avoided in this section. It is no knock on Evan Mobley, but he is featured instead of his teammate. Fresh off a nomination for NBA Defensive Player of the Year, Mobley’s versatility will be needed in this series. He will be the primary defender on Julius Randle and provide offensive upside. Moreover, he is a tremendous rebounder for his age. Should the Knicks go small at times with Randle at the ‘5’ in favor of Robinson, Mobley can shift over if Jarrett Allen needs to consequently sub out.

New York Knicks (+170 to win series)

Introduction

In what could have been a disastrous season for New York, the Knicks came out in a good position. While the top teams in the East were clear, finishing ahead of Atlanta, Miami, Chicago, and Miami is quite the achievement. After an offseason of turmoil following the max contract signing of Jalen Brunson, the former Maverick had a career year. Not only did Brunson average 24/3.5/6.2 on 49.1% shooting, but he was the clear leader on the court.

Matchup

This matchup could not be worse for the Knicks. Not only did Cleveland rank first in defensive rating this year, but they also allowed the fewest points per game in the NBA. Moreover, the rank first versus multiple player types. Primary ball handlers, off-ball guards, and scoring centers all struggle mightily versus the Cavaliers.

Rotation

Expect Coach Tom Thibodeau to stick to his roots. Through his career, he has been notorious for having one of the tightest rotations, no matter the time of year. Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle will be key for the Knicks this series. Moreover, a battle in the paint awaits for Mitchell Robinson. Lastly, the trio of Quentin Grimes, RJ Barrett, and Josh Hart will flank the wings. Look for Isaiah Hartenstein and Obi Toppin to pick up limited minutes in a backup role. Meanwhile Immanuel Quickley will continue to come off the bench, but will play clutch minutes and be in the closing lineup.

X-Factor

Playing against one of the best defenses in the NBA makes this section difficult. The Knicks will need both Quentin Grimes and RJ Barrett to step up. While they are far from the flashiest players on offense, they have the best matchup. Lining up against a combination of Isaac Okoro and Caris LeVert is as good as it will get versus Cleveland. However, the true x-factor in this series will be Mitchell Robinson. While the big man has had his limitations, this matchup is right up his alley. Both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are forces on both ends of the court, but Robinson will be needed every step of the way for New York.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

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MLBPremium

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 12)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

We finally have ourselves a full slate of baseball on a Friday night.  Tonight, we have a massive 12-game slate of MLB DFS.  Pitching-wise, we have a slate that is full of average to slightly above-average arms.  There are few clear aces here so we’ll need to dig deep to find arms that will be able to fully take advantage of their spots.  With that, we also have a bunch of bats in great spots making for a fun evening of MLB DFS. 

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Kodai Senga vs. Oakland Athletics

Kodai Senga gets one of the better matchups on paper tonight.  I’m going to completely ignore the number of runs that the A’s were able to put up against the Orioles because the Orioles’ pitching staff is going to be historically bad this season.  Senga should be able to walk through this lineup with relative ease. 

If you end up using Senga tonight and watch the game, you’ll want to skip the first inning.  In both of his starts this season, he’s struggled in the first and then settled down nicely to win both.  His ghost forkball is nearly unhittable and if it’s on tonight, he should be able to strike out a ton of A’s hitters.  In my opinion, he’s the clear SP1 tonight. 

Drew Rasmussen vs. Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have a very strong lineup on paper.  That said, they are also an extremely inconsistent lineup and one that wasn’t able to do anything last night vs. a far inferior pitcher in Spencer Turnbull.  They showed last night that they can be had and next up to do it will be Drew Rasmussen. 

Rasmussen is coming into this after back-to-back stellar outings.  Through 2 starts, he’s sporting a nearly 36% K rate.  Now the 2 starts were against the Nationals and the A’s, but he’s been spot-on with his pitches.  Not only has he been striking out a ton of batters, but the batters that do make contact are not getting good wood on the pitches.  Hitters this season have just a 15% hard-hit rate vs. him.  He’s been great and he’ll continue to roll tonight vs. the Blue Jays

I know I normally stick with 3 aces, but after Rasmussen and Senga tonight, there’s not a single pitcher that I feel comfortable recommending.  Each has a ton of risk or just isn’t very good.  I’ll be rocking double aces tonight. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Mets vs. James Kaprielian

James Kaprielian is one of of my favorite pitchers to target when he’s on the mound.  He’s someone that just gives up a ton of contact (83%), a ton of fly balls (47%), and a ton of hard hits (50%).  The three of these things combined make for a pitcher that plays with fire and when you face a solid lineup like the Mets, it’s going to make for a very tough evening.  While Kaprielian has been pretty bad vs. both sides of the plate this season, he’s been especially bad vs. lefties.  Lefties have a .512 wOBA and a .480 ISO vs. him.

Knowing how bad Kap has been against lefties this season, that brings Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, and Jeff McNeil into play.  Nimmo, who has been an on-base machine this season, is fairly priced at $4k tonight.  With the new rules in place this season, Nimmo has also started to run more, with 3 stolen bases. 

Of the 3 lefties I mentioned, Lindor is really the one with the power.  That said, I’m never going to chase homers in Oakland.  Lindor can easily have a full stat-line though tonight.  He’s not a lefty, but Pete Alonso is off to a red-hot start.  He’s the one righty that I’d really be interested in here as he possesses enough power to make even the largest of ballparks seem small. The Mets are a full stack for me tonight.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Mike Clevinger

This Baltimore Orioles offense is going to be a fun one to watch and play in MLB DFS this season.  Night in and night out, they’ll have players that can easily be the highest-scoring players on the night.  Tonight they’ll get a nice matchup vs. a contact pitcher that gives up a ton of fly balls.  On the year, Clevinger has a nearly 47% flyball rate and an 83% contact rate.  Against an Orioles team that has a lot of pop, that’s going to make for a long (or short) night for Clevinger. 

Any Orioles stack starts with Adley Rutschman.  He’s someone that can go quiet at times, but he’s coming into this game right off a walk-off homer yesterday vs. the A’s.  Rutschman is also someone that I really only target when he’s hitting from the left side.  So far in his young career, he’s been a significantly better hitter from the left side. 

Next up will be guys like Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, Jorge Matteo, and Gunnar Henderson.  Each of the guys has the ability to produce full stat lines and that’s what we look for in MLB DFS.  Matteo will get you steals with a little power mixed in.  Both Hays and Mountcastle have a ton of power and Henderson is a great young bat.  This lineup has a ton of potential tonight in a soft matchup. 

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Jake Woodford

The Cardinals are currently a mess.  They were shut out by Vincent Velasquez last night 5-0 and turn the ball over to Jake Woodford tonight.  Woodford has not looked overly good so far this season.  Through 2 starts, Woodford has an xFIP of 5.46 and an ERA of 9.  He’s been getting hit extremely hard, with 5 barrels allowed in just 9 innings of work. 

He’s also given up 4 homers in those 9 innings.  Until he gets things right, he is someone we’ll want to attack.  Although the Pirates aren’t someone I’d normally target on a large slate like this, I’m going double aces tonight and I need some value.  The Pirates will provide that.

The main bat when it comes to the Pirates is Bryan Reynolds.  He’s far from a value piece as he’s $5.9k tonight.  If you can afford him, go for it.  I’m more interested in the bottom of the lineup and guys like Carlos Santana, Ji-man Choi, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Rodolfo Castro.  Each of them is under $4k.  Santana has had a really solid week, with 6 wRC and a .993 OPS.  He’s only $3.5k and gets the platoon advantage being that he’s a switch hitter. 

Hayes is someone that is churning to break out.  He has only 5 hits in his last 27 AB, but he’s had a 90% contact rate.  If you put the ball in play 90% of the time as he does, good things will eventually come your way. 

MLB DFS Summary

I’m going to keep things simple on this large slate.  I’m going double aces and stacking 1 expensive stack with a cheap stack.  Many of the hurlers on the mound today carry an inherent risk. I didn’t mention the Rays as a stack tonight because I think tonight is the night their streak ends. Berrios, although he has a high ERA, hasn’t pitched as bad as his numbers indicate. He could easily shut them down tonight.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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