FanDuel

TGIF!  It’s Friday and there’s no football this week.  We have a massive 11-game slate of MLB DFS tonight and it’s a slate that brings back one of the best pitchers of our generation in Jacob deGrom.  This is a slate that at first glance brings a lot of punch.  What is also brings is a not a single pitcher priced over $10k on DK and just one priced over $10k on the duel.  We should be able to spend for whatever bats we want, for the most part. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

One of the night’s questions will be what to do with Dylan Cease.  This is a dream matchup for him as the Giants offense has been very suspect over the last couple of weeks.  They were blanked by Frankie Montas last night and if ever there was a matchup that would enable him to get back to his glory days, this is it.  We said that however of his last 2 outings, one against this same Giants team less than a week ago.  I’m out on Cease tonight.  I’m unwilling to pay a premium for a pitcher who hasn’t topped 20 DK points in nearly 2 months.  Cease gem incoming. 

Another question of the night will be what to do with Jacob deGrom.  deGrom is making his first appearance in the bigs since early last season after missing a whole bunch of time with yet another arm injury.  The upside with deGrom is unmatched and he’s at an insane discount tonight being priced at just $8.5k.  There isn’t another pitcher in the game that is as dominant as deGrom when he’s healthy. 

He’s facing a high-strikeout team in the Mariners and we just saw Kumar Rocker strike out 7 in just 4 innings of work.  The chances of that happening for deGrom tonight are way higher than deGrom failing so he will 100% be in my pool of pitchers tonight.  We may never see this price tag on deGrom ever again. 

Yusei Kikuchi ($9.2k on DK/$10.5k on FD) vs. Los Angeles Angels

I’ll start by saying that I like the price on DK a whole lot more than I do on FD.  Since being traded to the Astros, Yusei Kikuchi has been a completely different pitcher.  Over the last month, he’s been really strong as he has an ERA of 3.33 and an xFIP and SIERRA which is nearly a full run lower.  He’s also striking out a ton of hitters as evidenced by his nearly 30% K rate over the last month. 

He’ll be facing off against an Angels team that struggles mightily vs. lefties.  Over the last month, the projected lineup for the Angels tonight has a nearly 35% K rate and a wOBA that’s just downright silly at .189.  While the ISO is impressive at .152, if you can’t hit the ball, it doesn’t matter how much power you have.  I’m looking at Kikuchi being the highest-scoring pitcher on this slate.  He’s my SP1. 

Brady Basso ($4k on DK/$6k on FD) vs. Chicago White Sox

An interesting arm tonight is going to be Brady Basso vs. the White Sox.  Basso is coming off a stellar first start against the Tigers last Saturday that saw him go 6 innings while not allowing an ER and striking out 6.  In the minors this season he has been pretty good as he’s appeared in 16 games at AAA, starting 12 of them.  He has some K upside as his K/9 in AAA was over 10. 

He’s essentially facing a minor-league team tonight in the White Sox.  This White Sox team is historically bad and are almost a lock to break the ’62 Mets record.  They sit 81 games under .500 and will be 82 games after tonight.  Over the last month, they’ve been terrible vs. lefties as they have just .025 ISO, a .235 wOBA and a 31% K rate.  He’s risky because he’s only making his second big-league start.  The upside is there though. 

Other pitchers that I’ll have interest in tonight will be Bailey Ober vs. the Reds, Tanner Bibbee vs. Tampa, and Kevin Gausman vs. St. Lous. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Chicago Cubs vs. Austin Gomber

With spending down on pitching tonight, I’ll have plenty of spare change around to be able to spend up for the Cubs in Colorado tonight.  While Gomber hasn’t pitched that poorly recently over the last month, his xFIP and SIERA are both nearly 2 runs higher than his ERA.  This indicates that we can see some regression coming his way.  There are several factors I’m looking at as to why there’s going to be regression. 

His fly ball rate is massive at 51%, his hard-hit rate is massive at 41%, and his BABIP is extremely low .247.  He’s also striking out just 18% of the batters over the last month.  You can only get so lucky for so long and his luck is going to run out this evening against a solid Cubs lineup.  I’m going to be mostly focused on righties here as they tend to do the most damage vs. Gomber.  20 of the 27 homers he’s given up this season have been to righties.

Core Plays: Ian Happ, Isaac Parades, Seiya Suzuki, Dansby  Swanson, Nico Hoerner

Secondary Plays: Cody Bellinger, PCA, Patrick Wisdom

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Freddy Peralta

In order to be different tonight, I’m going to rock the Diamondbacks vs. Freddy P tonight.  This is nothing against Peralta, he’s a good pitcher.  But he almost never goes deep into his games and this Diamondbacks offense is absolutely loaded.  To date, they’ve scored 802 runs.  The next closest team?  The Yankees at 736 runs.  They are nearly 70 runs clear of the second-highest-scoring team. 

Would I stack the Dbacks against a pitcher like deGrom or Sale or Skubal?  No, not even in a million years.  But against any other pitcher in the game I would and Peralta is very beatable.  His xFIP and SIERA over the last month are both well above 5 and his K rate is only at 18%.  This may completely blow up in my face but as I like to say just like Ricky Bobby, if you’re not first, you’re last. 

Core Bats: Corbin Carroll, Eugenio Suarez, Christian Walker, Joc Pederson

Secondary Bats: Adrian Del Castillo, Ketel Marte

Value Bats: Pavin Smith

Other bats I like tonight will be the Brewers vs. Eduardo Rodriguez, Twins vs. Julian Aguiar, Yankees vs. Tanner Houck, and A’s vs. Garrett Crochet and the White Sox pen.    

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Hump Day!  It’s Wednesday and we have ourselves a nice-sized 8-game slate of MLB DFS tonight.  In this slate, we have some high-strikeout high-walk guys in decent matchups.  On DK, we don’t have a single arm that’s priced over $10k tonight.  What we also don’t have are the White Sox so we won’t be baited again in what should have been a dream matchups. 

Before we dig into tonight’s slate, I want to say a Thank You first.  A year ago today I was diagnosed with Stage 4 Cancer and many of you had reached out with words of support and prayers and boy did that help me get through what will hopefully be the wildest ride of my life.  Thankfully, that’s all in the past now and to celebrate, I’ll be taking down the Battery on DK tonight.  

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Hunter Brown ($9k on DK/$9.4k on FD) vs. Oakland Athletics

I’m looking for Hunter Brown to continue his stellar pitching tonight.  Over the last month, Brown has been brilliant.  He’s allowed just 5 ER over his last 6 starts and he’s faced some stiff competition in the Royals, Orioles, Red Sox, and Rangers over that stretch.  Tonight he gets a good matchup against an A’s team that has struggled offensively over the last week.  Over the last week, the A’s have scored just 20 runs and are hitting just .209 collectively.  They also have only a 6% barrel rate. 

While the A’s offense has been much improved this season, they have become stagnant again and they’ll be facing one of the Astros top pitchers in Brown.  The Astros hold a slim 4.5-game lead over the Mariners and need every win they can get.  Look for them to add another one tonight thanks to Brown. 

Blake Snell ($9.8k on DK/$9.6k on FD) vs. Milwaukee Brewers

When I went to bed last night, I had this whole concept of a plan to use Blake Snell as my SP1.  As we get closer to lock, make sure to jump into discord to make sure that’s still my plan.  When I target the Brewers with pitchers, it’s normally with lefties.  Overall, they are a much higher K team vs. righties than lefties.  The projected lineup for the Brewers tonight has 6 bats (Adames actually has the highest) who have K rates of at least 25% vs. lefties. 

While they can certainly hit for some power, they can also k a good bunch.  Snell is an enigma.  When his command is on, he has as much K upside as anyone in the game.  But when he’s off, as evidenced by his last start vs. the Dbacks, he’s tough to stomach.  I would never call him safe, but I’m chasing the upside with him in this matchup.  He has multiple games above this season over 30 DK points and I think he has that potential tonight at a reasonable price for him. 

Other arms I have an interest in tonight will be Michael King vs. Seattle, Cole Ragans vs. New York, and maybe Luis Gil vs. KC.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Los Angeles Angels vs. Zebby Matthews

Do I think that Zebby Matthews is bad as he’s been pitching?  No, I do not.  He’s been somewhat unlucky of late as hitters have an insanely high .366 BABIP against him.  While that’s high, so is his HR/FB rate.  He’s allowed 6 homers in the last 22 innings and those homers aren’t accounted for in his BABIP.  He’s been giving up a ton of hard contact as hitters have a nearly 40% hard-hit rate vs. him over the last month.  He’s also given up 10 barrels in the 22 innings of work. 

He’ll probably see some positive regression at some point, but I just don’t see it happening soon.  We want to attack him with lefties as he hasn’t figured out how to get them out just yet.  Lefties have a mind-boggling .412 ISO vs. him over the last month and a .508 wOBA.  Just comical numbers.  All 6 of the homers he’s allowed so far have been to lefties and that’s equated to a .784 slugging %.

Core and Value Plays: MickeyMoniak, Nolan Schanuel, Niko Kavadas

Secondary Plays: Taylor Ward, Zach Neto, Brandon Drury, Logan O’Hoppe

Houston Astros vs. Joey Estes

While Joey Estes hasn’t pitched overly poorly this season, he has been giving up what I look for when I stack against pitchers and that’s home runs.  K’s are king for pitchers and home runs are king for hitters.  Over his last 28 innings of work, Estes has given up 7 homers and has also given up a healthy amount of barrels at 8.  On the year, Estes has allowed 18 homers in his 110 innings of work.

Against Estes, I’m not going to be overly picky with splits as each side has 9 homers against him.  Both sides also have very comparable OPS’s and wOBAs.  That said, with the Astros a lot of their power comes from the left side of the plate thanks to the man, the myth, the Legend Yordan Alvarez

Core Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yainer Diaz

Secondary Bats: Jeremy Pena

Value Bats: Chas McCormick (if he plays), Jon Singleton, Ben Gamel  

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Padres vs. Bryan Woo, Cubs vs. Bobby Miller, Reds vs. Lance Lynn, and Royals vs. Luis Gil.  I don’t mind the Twins but just know you need to go all or nothing there.  Jack Kochanowicz is an extreme ground ball pitcher so chasing homers will be tough. 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Taco Tuesday!  It’s Tuesday and that means a large slate.  Tonight we have ourselves an 11-game slate of MLB DFS on both sites.  This is a slate where pitching will be a spend down game again for me.  The 3 most expensive pitchers on this slate are either in bad matchups or coming of the IL.  With spending down pitching, that will mean we’ll have plenty of money for bats tonight.  I expect this to be a slate where it will be on the higher scoring side of things.  

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

I’m going to break down why I’m out on the most expensive pitchers tonight.  On DK, the highest-priced pitcher is Shota Imanaga against the Dodgers.  Facing the Dodgers is enough reason to fade.  Next up will be his fellow countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto.  Yamamoto is far from stretched out.  I’m not willing to go to $9.5k on DK for a pitcher who only got up to 53 pitchers in his rehab outings.  After that is Nate Eovaldi against a very good Dbacks lineup.  While Eovaldi has been solid, I’m not willing to spend up on a pitcher who isn’t a stud facing off against a Dbacks lineup that is really good.  I’m out on all 3 of these.  The red flags are enough to scare me away. 

Pablo Lopez ($9.1k on DK/$10k on FD) vs. Los Angeles Angels

I’m more apt to play Pablo Lopez on Dk than I am FD tonight thanks to the savings, but he’s still very much in play on both sites.  This is a solid spot for Lopez who is closing out the 2024 season in great form.  Over the last month, Lopez has pitched a strong 1.35 ERA.  He’s coming off a 9 K outing against the Tampa Bay Rays and with a matchup against the Angels, I would not be shocked to see him replicate that. 

Although the Angels were able to put 6 runs last night, they still struck out a bunch.  Over the last month, the projected Angels lineup for tonight has struck out 31% of the time vs. righties.  Yes, they can get a homer or 2 when they are on, but they are facing a pitcher in Lopez who tends to put the ball on the ground.  Over the last month, Lopez has allowed just 1 dong and has a 55% GB rate.  Lopez is my SP1 tonight. 

David Peterson ($8.5k on DK/$9k on FD) vs. Toronto Blue Jays

The New York Mets are fighting for their playoff lives, and their success has been due to their starting pitching.  David Peterson has been a bright spot for the Mets over the last month or so, putting together a string of 5 quality starts over his last 7 and not allowing more than 2 ER in any of those 7 starts.  While he isn’t normally known to be a huge strikeout pitcher, he did just whiff 11 Red Sox in his last outing. 

This is a Toronto Blue Jays lineup that is typically much stronger against righties than it is lefties.  Over the last month, the Blue Jays have a nearly 29% K rate vs. lefties and a wOBA of just .263.  Like Lopez, Peterson doesn’t give up much in the way of power.  Just 2 homers allowed over his last 33 innings of work.  Love this spot for Peterson tonight. 

The other pitchers I have interest in tonight will be Spencer Arrighetti (high risk/high reward) vs. Oakland, Aaron Civale (great value) vs. a high-strikeout San Francisco Giants team, Rhett Lowder vs. St. Louis, and Alex Cobb vs. a terrible White Sox Lineup.  Make sure to drop into discord prior to lock to get my final thoughts on pitching. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Cleveland Guardians vs. Jonathan Cannon

The sky is blue and the White Sox continue to lose.  The White Sox are now 33-112 and have a -304 run differential.  With Jonathan Cannon on the hill for the White Sox, those numbers should only worsen.  Over the last month, Cannon has a far from impressive 6.39 ERA and an xFIP that’s over 5.  This is a spot where we can certainly chase some power as Cannon has allowed 5 homers in his last 25 innings of work.  He’s allowed at least 1 homer in 7 of his last outings.  We’ll want to chase power with the lefties in this matchup.

Lefties have hit 10 of the 15 homers he’s allowed this season and they also have a slugging % of .512 against him.  With how Guaranteed Rate Field plays, this is a huge advantage for the Guardians here and they’re also guaranteed to get 9 AB.  My only concern with this stack is that the White Sox bullpen has somewhat turned a corner.  Over the last couple of weeks, they’ve been respectable with a  3.50 ERA.  That said, it’s still the same bullpen that has been terrible all year long so my concern isn’t that great. 

Core Plays: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez

Secondary Plays: Lane Thomas, Steven Kwan

Value Plays: Bo Naylor, Brayan Rocchio, Kyle Manzardo, Will Brennan

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Hayden Birdsong

I also really like this spot for the Brewers tonight against Hayden Birdsong.  The rookie right-hander for the Giants has really struggled in his first cup of coffee this season.  Through 12 starts, Birdsong is 3-5 with an ERA of 5.19 across 52 innings of work.  What’s done him in so far has been his command as he owns an extremely high BB/9 of 6.06.  If we look at what he’s done across the minors since breaking in back 2022, this really isn’t an anomaly. 

In AAA this season he had a 6.00 and in AA last season he had a 5.09.  He struggles to get the ball over the plate and that has led to a WHIP of 1.5 this season.  All the Brewers need to do tonight is be patient and they’ll get enough runners on to put up some runs.  Birdson has also really struggled vs. righties and that brings into play the top hitters for Milwaukee in Willy Adames, William Contreras, and Jackson Chourio.  All 3 typically crush righties. 

Core Bats: Willy Adames, William Contreras, Jackson Chourio

Secondary Bats: Brice Turang

Value Bats: Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, Rhys Hoskins, Joey Ortiz

Other bats I like tonight will be the Orioles vs. Kutter Crawford, Red Sox lefties vs. Albert Suarez, Padres vs. a struggling George Kirby, and Twins vs. Griffin Canning.    To a lesser extent, I also like like the Mets vs. Bassitt. The Mets bats aren’t hot right now and when Bassitt is off his game, he’s the ultimate slump-buster.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

TGIF!  It’s the first Friday after football season has started and as I’m sure you’ve noticed this morning, contests are smaller.  This is something that we’ll be dealing with for the rest of the season.  That’s ok though, because one thing we’ll also be dealing with is dead lineups as people that won money playing NFL last night will be trying their hand at MLB.  Tonight we have a massive 12-game slate of MLB DFS.  This is a slate that is very top-heavy with solid pitching.  I’ll be spending up on pitching tonight and looking to find value with bats. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Before diving into my top 2 pitchers I want to talk about Tarik Skubal.  He is the most expensive pitcher on both slates tonight.  On FD, he’s at a nearly unheard-of $12k.  I’m fading him tonight.  If he goes off, I’m ok with the fade.  There are flags to be seen with him IMO.  He’s already touched a career-high in innings at 168.  For the first time in his career, he hit the coveted 200k milestone so there’s little else to accomplish.  With 21 games to go, they are 5 games out of the last Wild Card spot. 

While they still have a shot, Fangraphs has their playoff hopes at just 7.5%.  I just can’t see them pushing their star player where they don’t have to.  I’m also not in love with the matchup vs. an A’s team that has just a 20% K rate vs. lefties over the last month.  I don’t think this is a ceiling-type game and because of that, I’m not spending top $. 

Zack Wheeler ($10k on DK/$11.5k on FD) vs. Miami Marlins

Where I do want to spend up on pitching tonight will be Zack Wheeler.  The Phillies do still have a comfortable 8-game lead over both the Braves and Mets, but if I were the Phillies I’d want to clinch sooner rather than later.  They are massive favorites (-225 on BetMGM) tonight and getting that 4 points for the W on DK is almost a given.  He’s coming into this one in peak form, with a 2.01 ERA over the last month and allowing just 3 homers in 31 innings. 

He’s someone that we can almost always rely on with a heavy pitch count and he’s still well under last year’s 192 innings.  With a matchup against a terrible Marlins team, 6-7 innings with 7-8 K’s is well within range for what we’ve seen from Wheeler this season.  With all that said, I’m way more apt to play him on DK than I am on FD this evening.  That FD price is a little steep for me. 

Michael King ($9.8k on DK/$10k on FD) vs. San Francisco Giants

I’ll never feel 100% comfortable throwing Michael King, but I do believe this is a great spot for him tonight.  The Giants offense has been absolutely anemic of late.  Merril Kelly was able to dominate them yesterday with 8 K’s over 7 innings of work.  In the 3 starts prior to that, Kelly had given up 14 runs.  This is a Giants team that is really struggling right now, even with their walk-off win yesterday. 

The projected lineup for the Giants tonight has a nearly 28% K rate vs. righties over the last month with a wOBA of just .287.  I’m chasing here, but this is a ceiling-type game for King.  As long as the command is there for King tonight, the world is his oyster and the DK points will follow.

12:56 Update: Sean Manaea is now starting for the Mets. He’s now my SP2 over King. King is still in play, but i absolutey love Manaea tonight. I’ll be going with Wheeler/King as my pitchers on DK and Manaea is very much in play on FD.

Other pitchers that I like tonight will be Cole Ragans vs. Minnesota, Erick Fedde vs. Seattle, and Dean Kremer vs. Tampa.  I’m also out on Framber Valdez.  He’s been an absolute beast of late, but I don’t make it a habit of using lefties vs. the Dbacks.  Even without Marte, they are an extremely tenacious lineup vs. lefties.  They chased Snell after just one inning yesterday. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Mets vs. Brandon Williamson or Fernando Cruz

Meaningful September baseball.  That’s what the Mets are playing right now and it brings tears to my eyes.  With the Braves loss last night, the Mets moved into a tie with them for the final Wild Card spot in the NL.  They are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now, with a 7-game winning streak and winners of 8 of their last 10.  They get a matchup tonight that will make it easier for them to continue their winning ways. 

So far I’ve seen reports of either Brandon Williamson or Fernando Cruz starting for the Reds tonight.  What this more than likely means is that we’ll have a bullpen game tonight for the Reds  That will put the Mets in a position to put up a bunch of runs against a bullpen that has a 6.16 ERA and a 5.52 FIP over the last 2 weeks. 

Core Plays: Francisco Lindor

Secondary Plays: Pete Alonso, Mark Vientos, JD Martinez, Starling Marte, Brandon NImmo

Value Plays: Jesse Winker, Francisco Alvarez, Jeff McNeil

Chicago White Sox vs. Nick Pivetta

I want to spend up on pitching and the Mets (Lindor specifically) tonight so I need to find value.  This may be the craziest thing I’ve done all year.  Is it a smart move?  That’s very debatable.  But again, I don’t have much money left over after using 2 high-priced pitchers and the Mets.  There isn’t a single bat in this lineup that’s over $4k (for good reason).  It’s also Nick Pivetta. 

He can strike out hitters with the best of them.  But he can also give up runs and homers like the worst of them.  I’m chasing here and I 100% know it.  I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits here because between the 24 homers he’s given up this year, it’s pretty even split.  That said, he’s been worse against righties this season from a slugging % and K %.

Value Bats (I’m interested in): Nicky Lopez, Andrew Benintendi, Andrew Vaugh, Gavin Sheets, Dominic Fletcher

Other bats I like tonight will be the Padres vs. Mason Black, Royals vs. Zebby Matthews, Angels vs. Gerson Garabito, Rangers vs. Samuel Aldegheri, and Red Sox vs. Davis Martin.  

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!