We are already four weeks into the NFL season and oh what a month it has been! The injuries keep piling up game after game, but DFS keeps on going. The Niners were extremely short-handed last weekend, but our guy Jauan Jennings showed up for 49 DK FPTS, so congrats to our crew who took the advice! There will be even more pivots on this slate so keep it right here, where we have inactive starters, we get value down the depth charts.
Stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice on Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.
Sunday Main Slate 9/29/24
Vikings @ Packers (-3) (U/O 43.5)
Sam Darnold and the undefeated Vikings head to Lambeau Field in a tough divisional road game against the Packers. Green Bay expects to get Jordan Love back this week but has not missed a step on offense going 2-0 with Malik Willis. The familiarity of both teams may lead to some good defense in this matchup (MIN-2nd ranked, GB-12th ranked), so let’s see where to target for DFS.
Justin Jefferson (14 REC/273 YDS/3 TDS) needs no introduction, and he’s connected to Sam Darnold, so they both get the thumbs up (67.9 Comp%, 657 yards, 8 TDS in three games). Aaron Jones in the backfield has also looked to fit the role of a workhorse (5.4 YPC/85% Catch Rate), and his matchup is juicy (GB is 22nd in DVOA to opposing RBs). But for a pivot from the main Vikings, we have Jalen Nailor. It seems like Jordan Addison is on pace to miss another week as he still hasn’t practiced, which gives Nailor another opportunity to feast (One touchdown in each game this season).
The Packers could be back to full strength if Love gets cleared to play, which will unlock every weapon again in green and yellow uniforms. Love and his receiving core will face a Vikings’ secondary ranked 26th in the league that was just smoked by Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. However, Josh Jacobs could struggle in this one, as the Vikings are the second-stingiest run defense in football, allowing only 71 yards per game. It’ll be wheels up for Jayden Reed and company if Love gets the nod, otherwise, with Malik Willis, the floor may be lower due to him fleeing the pocket.
Cash: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones (revenge game narrative), Jordan Love (If he’s cleared)
GPP: Sam Darnold, Jalen Nailor, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs (So long as Love plays)
Update: Jordan Love expected to play
Broncos @ Jets (-7) (O/U 38.5)
The Broncos will gallop into MetLife Stadium fresh off their first win to take on a Jets team playing on a full tank of steam led by a tenacious defense and Aaron Rodgers. A total under 40 with a spread of a touchdown is not appealing for any of the pieces besides the defenses for DFS, but let’s see what we can muster up. All should be tournament plays other than the Jets’ defense (The Broncos are 26th ranked offense).
Bo Nix showed us some spry in his step, leading Denver to their first win against Tampa. He completed 69% of his passes and rushed in a touchdown for 19 Fantasy points, not too bad for his price tag last week. We also finally saw wideout Courtland Sutton back into the mix (7 REC/68 YDS). But to throw against New York will be a bumpy road (4.7 YDS per PA/1 PA TD allowed), so Denver may rely on their stable of backs on Sunday. Jaleel McLaughlin is beginning to take over that backfield, he punched one into the endzone last week.
The Jets are beginning to look like a functional football club, something I have not seen in a decade. The defense put the clamps on a very inferior New England team (3 points allowed in Week 2) and Aaron Rodgers hit over seven different teammates with dart throws, showing some leadership last week. Denver is a similar club to New England in talent and we should expect the same outcome. Breece Hall could be an RB to draft especially after what he did to Denver last year (194 total yards/1 TD), but Braelon Allen averaging 5.1 YPC and already scoring two touchdowns would be a sneaky GPP pivot especially if this game gets out of hand.
Cash: Jets DST, Breece Hall
GPP: Courtland Sutton, Jaleel McLaughlin, Braelon Allen
Steelers @ Colts (+1.5) (O/U 40)
The Surprising 3-0 Steelers will visit Indy to keep their momentum moving against a Colts defense that has woken up recently against the Bears. We all know the capabilities of Pittsburgh’s defense led by TJ Watt, but the Colts accumulated four sacks, a forced fumble recovery, and two picks by Jalen Johnson. With a 40 total, it could be another game we can look elsewhere for DFS. But also a spot to get different, let’s take a look-see.
The Steelers and Mike Tomlin are looking to roll Justin Fields out again for Week 4, and why not ride the hot hand? He scored nearly 20 fantasy points, which brought him three times his value on DraftKings. The backfield is a little banged up between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, but Harris may be the back available to play of the two. Harris will be a lock for cash if Warren can’t suit up. George Pickens is in play, but Calvin Austin III has emerged in Pittsburgh. Four receptions and one taken to the house for 96 total yards against LA for a mere $3,300 on DraftKings, makes him a solid punt on the slate.
The Colts Anthony Richardson is still a work in progress. Still wet behind the ears when it comes to leading an offense (6 interceptions in three games), the Steelers’ defense is a no-brainer for cash. The only path to victory in Indy for DFS is through Jonathan Taylor. Tough matchup running up against the second-ranked run defense (71 yards allowed per game), so keep him in tournaments.
Cash: Steelers DST, Najee Harris (If Warren is OUT)
GPP: Justin Fields, George Pickens, Calvin Austin, Jonathan Taylor, Colts DST
Update: Jaylen Warren is OUT
Bengals @ Panthers (+4.5) (O/U 47.5)
The winless Bengals hit the road to face a Carolina team rejuvenated by the veteran Andy Dalton, who has thrown for the league’s first 300-yard/3 touchdown game this season. Cincinnati is desperate not to go 0-4, so the coaching staff will put it all on the line Sunday, Both defenses have performed poorly so far this year, hence the 47.5 total, so we should pay attention to this part of the slate for DFS, let’s dive in.
Despite throwing for 324 yards with a 76% completion and three touchdowns, Joe Burrow could not chalk up the win because of the Bengal defense. Washington’s rookie Jayden Daniels marched his team up and down the field Monday night, peppering Terry McLaurin and making grab after grab. We love this for DFS, the more a team gives up on defense, the more their quarterback has to throw even more. Ja’Maar Chase, Tee Higgins, and second-year wideout Andrew Iosivas will all be DFS plays, as well as Zack Moss has a gravy matchup against Carolina’s 28th-ranked rushing defense (151 YDS/game allowed).
”The Red Rifleman” Andy Dalton gave the Panthers offense a shot of adrenaline, winning their first game of the season. This week Dalton plays his former team, who drafted him back in 2011 and played for nine seasons. Cincinnati‘s defense is in total disarray, leaving the door wide open for Dalton to have another solid afternoon. Adam Thielen has landed on IR, forcing Diontae Johnson into Cash games, with Xavier Legette and Jonathan Mingo into GPPs. Chuba Hubbard gets another thumbs-up, especially after last week’s 27 fantasy point explosion. Cincinnati has not had an answer guarding the run, allowing the seventh most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Cash: Ja’Maar Chase, Zack Moss, Diontae Johnson
GPP: Joe Burrow, Andrew Iosivas, Tee Higgins, Xavier Legette, Jonathan Mingo, Chuba Hubbard, Mike Gesicki
Jaguars @ Texans (-6) (O/U 45.5)
The 0-3 Jags have hit rock bottom, still looking for their first win. But it will be tough sledding against an intense Texans defense loaded with talent up and down the field. Houston will look to bounce back after losing in Minnesota and may take their frustrations out on the Jaguars this Sunday.
Jacksonville continues to give up a ton of big plays in the open field as we witnessed in Monday night’s blood bath in Buffalo. Stack up your Texan wide receivers for DFS, but we’ll need to monitor Tank Dell’s health since he popped up with a rib injury. Joe Mixon still hasn’t practiced this week either, so again we may have another Cam Akers or Dameon Pierce discount at running back. And how can we forget C.J. Stroud…he gets the auto-start for builds facing a Jacksonville pass funnel that is second-most generous to opposing quarterbacks for fantasy points.
The Jaguars are off to a rough start and may hit the reset button soon if things don’t turn around soon. Trevor Lawrence enters the matchup completing only 60% of his passes, with a rating of 43.1, and that’s only the tip of the iceberg. Until Jacksonville can stop the bleeding on defense, Travis Etienne and the running game can never find its rhythm. It was nice to see Christian Kirk finally show up in the box score, catching eight of ten targets for 79 yards. Other than the Texans’ defense, I would take a shot on Christian Kirk for DFS, especially since it appears Evan Engram may miss Week 4.
Cash: Nico Collins, C.J. Stroud, Texans DST
GPP: Stefon Diggs, Dalton Schultz (If Tank Dell is OUT), Christian Kirk, Cam Akers/Dameon Pierce (If Mixon is OUT)
Update: Mixon and Tank Dell are OUT, Evan Engram is OUT
Eagles @ Bucs (+2.5) (O/U 45)
Philadelphia heads over to Tampa this Sunday for a rematch of last year’s Wild Card game but could be very short-handed at receiver. The Bucs look to get right after losing a game they should’ve won in Denver, and they have a shot to do so if the Eagles receivers can’t get healthy. Let’s take a peek at who to take for DFS.
Jalen Hurts may have to throw to himself Sunday if his guys cannot suit up. A.J. Brown has still not practiced since missing Week 2 and Devonta Smith is in danger of missing his first game after taking a nasty hit in New Orleans putting him into concussion protocol. Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert will have a very busy afternoon if this scenario plays out. Barkley, who leads the league in rushing yards (351) and touchdowns (5), will be a lock regardless of injuries for Cash Games as he faces a Bucs defense that allows close to 140RuYDS per game. Dallas Goedert is considerable for Cash too, seeing 11 targets and catching ten for 170 yards.
The Eagles will also be thin if they lose A.J. and Devonta this week. This may finally be the Jahan Dotson breakout game as the stars have aligned It will make him Hurts’ number-one receiver by default. Also with Britain Covey on IR, consider Johnny Wilson and Parris Campbell for GPPs, since someone else will need to step up to catch passes for Phila.
The Bucs and Baker Mayfield average close to 30 passing attempts per game and are adamant about airing out the football. They get a Phila secondary that is 26th in DVOA to opposing receivers, so expect big performances from Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Both were limited in practice, so keep an eye on injury reports.
Cash: Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, Dallas Goedert
GPP: Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Jahan Dotson, Johnny Wilson, Parris Campbell (if A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith are OUT), Tampa DST
Update: Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown are OUT
Rams @ Bears (-3) (O/U 41)
Caleb Williams has arrived in the NFL and will aim to hold down home-field against an extremely thin Rams offense led by Kyren Williams. The rookie came up short on Sunday against the Colts but posted some decent stats, (63%/363 YDS/2 TDS/2 INT) and built some chemistry with Rome Odunze. LA is still nowhere near getting Cooper Kupp or Puca back in the lineup, so the Rams may turn to Williams for offense again this week.
If Chicago wants to stay competitive, they’ll need to turn back to the arm of their number-one pick Caleb Williams. The Bears’ running game has been nonexistent featuring D’Andre Swift, averaging a putrid 1.8 YPC. Their O-line is not off the hook either, but Roschon Johnson saw some work last week and provided some juice in the backfield (4 REC/56 YDS). Williams gets a cake matchup against a Rams’ secondary ranked in the bottom five for yardage and passing touchdowns. Chicago’s pass catchers are all in play, especially tight end Cole Kmet who put up a monstrous 10 REC/97 YDS/1 TD statline.
LA’s win was not entirely all Kyren Williams (2 RuTDS/1 REC TD) in their victory against the Niners, receiver Tutu Atwell quietly put up over 13 fantasy points (4 REC/97 YDS). Chicago may put eight in the box to slow down Kyren, so Stafford may need to spread the ball to his backup receivers. It might not play out well for Stafford going up against the Bears’ 7th-ranked passing defense, so keep everyone in tournaments.
Cash: Kyren Williams
GPP: Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, DJ Moore, Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson, Jordan Whittington, Bears DST, Roschon Johnson, Keenan Allen
Saints @ Falcons (-2) (O/U 42.5)
The Saints suffered their first loss of the season and will aim to bounce back against a Falcons team that also has a bad taste in their mouth after a controversial loss to the Chiefs last Sunday night. Both clubs have solid defenses, and considering we have another divisional matchup on hand, the scores may stay low. New Orleans’ bell cow Alvin Kamara enters the weekend questionable, so we will need to keep that in perspective.
Getting back to Kamara for the Saints, who is a little banged up with a hip injury. The star running back has not practiced all week, so we may be pivoting on a few Saints players for DFS. Chris Olave (6 REC/81 YDS/ 1 TD last week) would be catapulted into Cash Games if Kamara does sit out, but what about Jamaal Williams? The reigning single-season touchdown record holder absolutely would be a play, but don’t forget about Taysom Hill. The tight end/Swiss Army Knife could also vulture carries for himself and would be a smart GPP move at the position.
Atlanta has played very well thanks to the veteran presence of Kirk Cousins (70% Comp/626 YDS/4 TDS) and should keep the ball rolling at home. Take your pick in DFS in Atlanta’s offense. Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and even Darnell Mooney are all viable, but GPPs only because of the matchup (Saints are 5th overall in points allowed) and price tags. Of course, both defenses could be useful this weekend.
Cash: Chris Olave, Jamaal Williams (If Kamara is OUT)
GPP: Kirk Cousins, Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Taysom Hill (If Kamara is OUT), Saints DST, Atlanta DST, Rashid Shaheed
Update: Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara are expected to play.
Patriots @ Niners (-10) (O/U 39.5)
San Fran is desperate for a win after taking two straight losses and is hoping to lock up an easy one against the Patriots. New England has been stale on offense ranking dead last in points and total yards per game for the season. They’ve also been in the bottom ten in pass coverage, which would make Brock Purdy feel a lot more comfortable at home throwing the football. Having a ten-point spread on the slate, we want plenty of shares of Niners for DFS in this get-right game, let’s check them out.
I liked Brock last weekend, and I like him again, so let’s return to the Purdy well that produced over 25 fantasy points. George Kittle will be back in the mix returning from a hammy, but Deebo remains questionable. So if Deebo is a no-go, do we grab Jauan Jennings again? Absolutely. He won’t replicate his three touchdowns with 11 catches for 175 yards, but the case has been made for him to be consistently targeted in the offense. The sharp move would be to pivot to Brandon Aiyuk this week over Jennings since the field will be chasing his 49 fantasy points from last week.
The Jets crushed New England physically and mentally last Thursday night, exposing them as one of the worst offenses in the league. They did however make good on DeMario Douglas in Week 3 by having Jacoby Brissett target him nine times, catching seven passes for 69 yards. Frisco can be thrown on,( 23rd in pass defense) so the Vegas line suggests New England playing from behind and possibly game-scripting out Rhamondre Stevenson. Consider Hunter Henry (25% target share/78% snaps) also for DFS GPPs.
Cash: Niners DST/Brock Purdy
GPP: Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, DeMario Douglas, Hunter Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson
Update: Deebo Samuel is expected to play
Chiefs @ Chargers (+8) (O/U 39)
An AFC West matchup will take place in LA featuring the world-champion Chiefs and Harbaugh’s revamped bolts. I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen a total below 40 with Patrick Mahomes in it, yet here we are. Other than Rasheed Rice, the Chiefs stalled out offensively, while turning the ball over five times in three games. Their defense has also carried KC into the win column led by Chris Jones.
The Chargers, like the Chiefs, rely on their defense to win, except they lack the firepower to light up the scoreboard this season. It has been all about running back J.K. Dobbins who averages an insane 7.4 yards per carry through three games. Quarterback Justin Herbert has been invisible this year, mainly due to the coaching staff keeping his arm fresh for the season. Give me Dobbins and the Chargers defense for GPPs in this divisional game.
For Kansas City in DFS, it’s been the Mahomes to Rice show. Travis Kelce hopefully returns to form after being s ghost through three weeks. Maybe Kelce finally wakes up in Week 4, as he has owned the Chargers over the past two seasons. Since 2022 he’s caught 23 receptions for 345 yards and four touchdowns.
Cash: Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice
GPP: Chargers DST, Chiefs DST, Travis Kelce, J.K. Dobbins
Browns @ Raiders (-1) (O/U 37.5)
This could be the grossest game on the slate. The Browns fly out to Sin City to get right against a Vegas team already ruling out Davante Adams and All-Pro Defensive Tackle Maxx Crosby. Cleveland enters the game as the worst-ranked offense in the league (31st in total offense) and is desperate to get back on track. Vegas will also try to turn the page on an embarrassing loss to a Panthers team that rolled into town and ran the tables on them with 36-year-old Andy Dalton.
Deshaun Watson has lost a step and is not the quarterback he once was in Houston (57% Completion/4.8 yards per attempt). Cleveland may choose to focus more on its running game against a Raiders’ defense that is 30th in DVOA to opposing running backs. Jerome Ford falls into a great matchup, but he’ll be without offensive linemen Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills Jr. Vegas will be missing pass rusher Maxx Crosby, so it could be a wash in the trenches.
Davante Adams will be a huge cog missing from the Raiders’ offense, leaving double-digit targets up for grabs. By default, Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers move up the ladder for looks from Minshew. However, if you are looking for a GPP value play, Tre Tucker is your guy. Already seeing 75% of the snaps and 13% of the targets, if Cleveland focuses more on Meyers and Bowers, Tre Tucker may have a big day ahead facing a Browns’ secondary that was dissected by the Giants a week ago.
Cash: Raiders DST, Browns DST, Brock Bowers
GPP: Jerome Ford, Amari Cooper, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker
Update: David Njoku is OUT
Commanders @ Cardinals (-3.5) (O/U 50.5)
Finally, we reach the end of the slate, and it’s a 50-burger. The Commanders looked like an entirely new offense allowing Jayden Daniels to air it out, silencing the Cincinnati crowd Monday Night. The Cardinals fell short to Detroit last week, I’m a game where they lost stud tight end Trey McBride to a concussion. This game should not disappoint us for DFS as two of the worst secondaries in the league will share the same turf.
Jayden Daniels set a record on Monday Night for the highest completion percentage (91.3%) by a rookie quarterback and will build off that performance (2 Pa TDS/1 RuTD) come Sunday. The Cards allow a whopping 7.3 yards per pass attempt, a stat that could spell out chunks of yardage to guys like Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz. Running back Brian Robinson will be a lock for Cash games with Austin Ekeler ruled out earlier in the week. He’ll see plenty of work, especially on third downs where EKeler slid in.
Kyler will walk into the best matchup of the season to throw on, but he’ll be without one of his top targets tight end Trey McBride. Washington has allowed the most passing touchdowns (9) and second-most yardage (767) on the year, and the rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. will reap all of the benefits. But sharing is caring in football, so with McBride out, Michael Wilson and James Conner will inherit a few more looks, along with backup tight end Elijah Higgins who is a measly $3,100 on DraftKings.
Cash: Jayden Daniels, Kyler Murray, Brian Robinson, Marvin Harrison Jr.
GPP: Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, Michael Wilson, Elijah Higgins, James Conner
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 4! Remember to check back daily for more content up until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!
