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Welcome back to another Main Slate Breakdown as we approach the end of the regular season. We underestimated the skill of Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans against that tough Chargers defense, but still hit on plenty of plays for DFS in our last article. Stone Smartt along with the entire Bills/Lions game was a cashed ticket if you went that route. Let’s get right into Week 16 now, as there’ll be plenty of changes in some of the offenses this week, particularly at quarterback.

Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.

Sunday Main Slate 12/22/24

Eagles @ Commanders (+3) (O/U 45.5)

We start off with a monster matchup within the NFC East, as the Eagles, who are in first place, will travel to the Capitol to face the Commanders. Both clubs are stacked on each side of the football, so it should be a slugfest in D.C. We’ll want to invest in this game for DFS since it will be all hands on deck for control of the division.

Philly will keep it down to their business as usual in the offense. The volume increased significantly to DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown in targets with the loss of Dallas Goedert to IR, seeing 19 of 23 passing attempts in the game. Bottom line, Head Coach Nick Siriani wants to run the damn ball with Hurts and Barkley (34 Attempts against Pittsburgh). Use these four only for cash games or GPPs.

Jayden Daniels has made a strong case for OROTY as he has completed 75% of his passes in 14 games and ranks second in the league in rushing yards amongst quarterbacks with six rushing touchdowns. However, he’s down to the bare bones at receiver with Terry McLaurin as the last man standing with Zach Ertz suffering a concussion last week. Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown, and Olamide Zaccheaus will see some uptick this week if Ertz is out, and Brian Robinson will still own the backfield in a tough matchup (7th best run defense). Ben Sinnott and John Bates will split the reps at tight end also if Ertz misses time, some great GPP options in Washington.

Cash: Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels

GPP: Terry McLaurin, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Brian Robinson, and Any other Commanders named above if Ertz is out.

Browns @ Bengals (-7) (O/U 48)

Next, we check in on another division game except this one will be for bragging rights, not playoff contention. These two AFC North clubs have been awful on defense this year, but only the Bengals have the firepower to back it up. Cincinnati will host Cleveland in a DFS algorithm that we adore of when two opposing bottom-of-the-barrel defenses collide. The total is near 50, so let’s dive in.

Joe Burrow continues to light up the scoreboard with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Bengals also have Chase Brown in the backfield who has now established himself as their RB 1, looking like a young Austin Ekeler averaging five catches per game. The Browns’ defense has not as it used to be falling to 26th in the league and averaging 24 points allowed per game. All four Bengals are solid plays this week in your cash or GPP lineups as they sit on top of the NFL in scoring and moving the chains,

Say it ain’t so coach. Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski has seen enough of Jameis Winston, benching him for Dorian Thompson-Robinson. This news delivers daggers to our usage of Jerry Jeudy and the rest of the receiving options in Cleveland. DTR will have some rushing upside, however, at $4,800 on DraftKings it may be an option to use him solo against the second-to-last-ranked defense in Cincinnati. Running back Jerome Ford is another Browns guy I’d be willing to pay $5,600 on DK this week, as he’ll get the start with Nick Chubb done for the year. Both are GPP-only starts.

Cash: Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown

GPP: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Jerome Ford

Rams @ Jets (+3.5) (O/U 46.5)

Here we get an East Coast-West Coast matchup as the Rams travel across the country to square off against the Jets. LA has been on a roll, taking over first place in their division and playing some lights-out football. New York got their first win after losing their last four contests, and will aim to keep the momentum to close out the year.

The Jets’ defense is falling apart at the seams, allowing Mac Jones and the Jaguars to put up 25 points in a game that went down to the final plays. Matt Stafford will be chomping at the bit to fire away this Sunday against this secondary, and Kyren Williams could be leaving his tread marks all over the Meadowlands as the Jets allow over 121 yards per game on the ground. The Rams will play to win in order to keep first place locked up in the NFC West.

Aaron Rodgers has finally made his way back to the top of the QB rankings after two and a half years thanks to a miserable Jaguars defense and some pep in his step with his Netflix documentary airing soon. He’s still a diva, but as long as he puts up some numbers for our lineups, we’ll give him a pass. He threw for 289 yards and three touchdowns in Week 15, with 198 of the yards and nine catches with two scores going to the apple of his eye Davante Adams. Both are viable again in GPPs this week along with Garrett Wilson who may be force-fed after being left out of the mix last week with only three receptions.

Cash: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua

GPP: Matt Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Cooper Kupp, Breece Hall

Cardinals @ Panthers (+4) (U/O 47)

Next, we have Arizona heading to the Carolinas to get back into the win column against the Panthers, a team we have picked on all season. The Cardinals are hanging by a thread to get a Wild Card spot while the Panthers seem to be building some chemistry towards the end of the season, especially on offense. We’ll see some value at key positions for DFS, let’s check them out.

Kyler Murray has fallen all the way down to $6,100 on DraftKings due to his underwhelming performances but has become a cash-game quarterback this week thanks to his matchup. Trey McBride, James Conner, and Marvin Harrison Jr. will also see a bump in ownership as they will all face the worst-ranked defense all around the league. All will be popular for cash and tournaments this weekend.

The Panthers are beginning to click on offense, but the injuries continue to pile up, unfortunately. Bryce Young has put up decent numbers for his low salary in the $5K range on DraftKings for the past three weeks, but with only Chuba Hubbard and Adam Thielen as the only guys off the injury report so far, he’ll be too risky. Thielen and Hubbard are the only safe plays for DFS for volume and availability on the slate. Cash and GPP will be fine for both.

Cash: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Adam Thielen

GPP: Trey McBride, Chuba Hubbard, Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals DST

Lions @ Bears (+7) (O/U 45.5)

We get ready for another divisional matchup here as the Lions head over to the Windy City to take on the Bears. Detroit has continuously lit up the scoreboard for the month of December while Chicago’s wheels have fallen off for the season. Dan Campbell will be looking to lock up a top seed in the Conference, as the Eagles and Vikings share a record of 12-2 with them, it’ll be a needed victory on the road for Detroit.

In Detroit’s quest for the Super Bowl, they’ll be without David Montgomery who suffered a possible season-ending knee injury this past Sunday. This injury will force Jahmyrr Gibbs into a heavy workload as well as DFS lineups in one of the most prolific offenses in football. A cash game darling will be Gibbs at $7,500 on DraftKings facing a Bears’ defense that has allowed well over 130 yards per game rushing and is 28th in DVOA. ARSB, Goff, Jame-O, and La Porta are also in play, and if you are looking to get different, Craig Reynolds should see some work replacing Montgomery at RB, he’s min-priced at $4K on DraftKings and could be a sleeper if Detroit runs away in this game and he gets garbage- time work.

The last time these two teams met was on Thanksgiving when we witnessed Caleb Williams come to life in the second half to put up a 256/3 stat line, with 39 yards rushing and giving him 26 fantasy points. Detroit’s defense has taken a hit due to injuries and continues to allow opposing offenses to march into the endzone. Williams holds an argument for consideration in lineups priced at only $5,600 on DK, and pairing him with Keenan Allen and DJ Moore makes even more sense at their salaries. Chicago will lean me towards tournament plays instead of cash games.

Cash: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown

GPP: Caleb Williams, Jared Goff, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Sam LaPorta, Cole Kmet, Jameson Williams, Craig Reynolds

Titans @ Colts (-4.5) (O/U 42.5)

Another divisional game on the slate, this time it’s in the AFC South as the Colts close in on a playoff berth hosting Tennessee. Their schedule will help tremendously as they close out the season, starting with the 3-11 Titans that rank 27th in the league in points allowed per game (25.8). However, the Colts are no strangers to allowing their opponents in the endzone as well so Tennessee will also be a team to consider this week.

Anthony Richardson will see his first and only look at a Titans’ defense that has been thrown at all year due to their passion for clogging up running lanes for their opposition. Although his efficiency has been all over in the passing department, his rushing upside has gained some momentum scoring in his last two starts. His price on DraftKings is still affordable at $5,400 as well as his receivers are both priced in the same ballpark. Jonathan Taylor is even back under $7K this week, just on the discount alone I can see using any of these guys at home against Tennessee.

As I mentioned above, the Colts do give up the goods themselves, allowing an average of 140-plus yards per game rushing. When their opponents get going in that department, thus their passing lanes open up. Now Mason Rudolph will take the reigns once again for the benched Will Levis, and he’s put up 15-plus fantasy points in three of his five starts this year. I would keep him in GPPs but Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard (if healthy) would be cash-game options because of the injuries and possible unavailability of the Titans’ offense.

Cash: Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard (if healthy, otherwise Tyjae Spears)

GPP: Anthony Richardson, Mason Rudolph, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor

Giants @ Falcons (-8) (O/U 41)

The 7-7 Falcons will welcome the 2-12 Giants in a much-needed win for Atlanta to keep up the pace with the first-place Bucs. The Giants will be happy to help the cause as they aim to grab a top pick in next year’s draft and continue to get crushed by opposing offenses. Except Atlanta’s offense will be a new one this week with the benching of Kirk Cousins for First Round Draft Pick Michael Penix.

Atlanta shocked the NFL world by taking Penix eighth overall in this year’s draft, and we’ll see perhaps why they did when he takes the field Sunday in a fully weaponized offense against one of the worst defenses in the league. He’s dirt cheap at $4,500 on DK, making him a risky tournament move as he debuts into the NFL. His passing options will also be high-risk, high-reward options like London, Pitts, and Mooney. Bijan Robinson is the only safe, cash-game play this week against a Giants’ run defense that gets gashed for 143 per game on average.

The quarterback carousel continues to spin in New York as Drew Lock gets back under center this week. Atlanta’s DVOA has been morbid, falling to 29th in DVOA to opposing wide receivers. Malik Nabers remains the focal point of the offense as he’s averaging 12 targets per game in December. Tyrone Tracy has been right behind his rookie teammate hogging all the carries in the backfield. Both are priced affordably and can be used in cash or GPPs, but Drew should be considered an extreme risk because of his recent play and availability to complete an entire game.

Cash: Bijan Robinson, Malik Nabers

GPP: Michael Penix, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney, Tyrone Tracy

Vikings @ Seahawks (+3.5) (O/U 42.5)

Minnesota looks to keep up with Detroit for first place in the division and will need a win in Seattle to do so. The Seahawks will also have a sense of urgency as they are trying to keep up with the Rams in their division. Both teams’ playoff fates will be at stake in Seattle, so expect the defenses to step it up a notch.

Geno Smith left Sunday night’s loss with a knee injury that seemed at the moment he would be missing some time. Well, he’s back to full practice and in line to start on Sunday, so scratch a Sam Howell start. Minnesota ranks 2nd overall on defense, allowing fewer points, but you may still be able to throw on their secondary. They are dead last in DVOA to opposing wideouts and allow almost 250 yards per game by the pass. Both JSN and DK Metcalf will be a huge value and should see plenty of targets, especially if Minnesota gets rolling early. The Seattle backfield may be getting Kenneth Walker back too, but it could be without Zach Charbonnet. The situation must be monitored for a potential bell-cow opportunity in Seattle.

If and when Minnesota does get on a scoring binge, it would be by the arm of Sam Darnold and the legs of Aaron Jones. The Seahawks allow close to 130 yards per game, and the Vikes love to feed Jones the rock as he holds a 78% carry rate when he’s on the field. Jones scored three times in his last four games and offers a high ceiling for GPPs while pivoting away from the Jahmyr Gibbs chalk. Justin Jefferson, TJ Hock, and Jordan Addison are also solid plays for Week 16.

Cash: Justin Jefferson, Kenneth Walker (If Charbonnet is OUT)

GPP: Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, DK Metcalf, Jaxson Smith Njigba, Aaron Jones, TJ Hockenson

Update: Charbonnet and Walker off injury report

Patriots @ Bills (-14) (O/U 46.5)

Buffalo will welcome the Patriots into an AFC East matchup and as 14-point underdogs this week in Vegas. Buffalo has been playing lights out thanks to MVP frontrunner Josh Allen. New England has their work cut out for them and are already out of the playoff hunt, but don’t expect them to lay down without a fight in this divisional matchup.

Start your Bills for DFS, as they are the hottest team in football. The Pats have been whooped on all year by high-caliber offenses, so, by all means, do not hold back due to the point spread. Their defense also gets a green light being the spread is two touchdowns and the rookie Drake Maye could be pressured into making some difficult passes. Ray Davis and Ty Johnson are also great plays for GPPs as if this game does get out of hand, they’ll see more runs than starter James Cook.

The Pats are in for an uphill battle from the looks of the Vegas lines, but hats off to the rookie Drake Maye. Not only has he averaged a completion percentage of 70% in his rookie year, but he’s managed some usage with his feet, racking up 359 yards with two scores. Another off-the-radar play for tournaments is Maye, but if this game gets off-script and is close, consider Rhamondre Stevenson. The Bills refuse to be beaten downfield on defense and will allow the run. It’s possibly why they’re ranked 31st in the league’s DVOA.

Cash: Josh Allen

GPP: Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper, Bills DST, Ray Davis

Niners @ Dolphins (-1.5) (O/U 46)

San Fransisco travels to Miami for one last push to get into the postseason; however, the Dolphins themselves have a window of playoff hopes, too. The Niners finally catch a break in sunny Florida after three weeks of brutal weather, but the injuries keep piling up. The Dolphins have also been bitten by the injury bug, and they’ll be without some key players. But with injuries we find value for DFS, so let’s dive in.

Jaylen Waddle will not suit up this Sunday, which will send more targets to Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith, and De’Von Achane from Tua Tagovailoa. However, Tyreek will need to line alongside other receivers before the ball is snapped, and it will be Malik Washington, the rookie out of Virginia. He saw 59% of the snaps upon Waddle’s departure last week and caught five balls for 58 yards. He’s only $3,700 on DraftKings, which is a nice saving on a WR2 in a high-powered offense.

The Niners will be down to their fourth-string running back with Isaac Guerendo being ruled out with a foot and hamstring injury. Patrick Taylor is the next man up at only $5,200 on DraftKings, although I’d rather take another shot on Deebo Samuel who’ll also see some carries and targets with the same price tag. He’s yet to explode this season for a big game, and this may be the one. George Kittle has been a monster for the offense and has everyone’s eye for DFS every week averaging over 16 fantasy points per game.

Cash: George Kittle, Jonnu Smith, De’Von Achane

GPP: Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Malik Washington, Deebo Samuel, Patrick Taylor

Jaguars @ Raiders (-1) (U/O 40.5)

Finally, to wrap up the slate we’ll tap into two of the bottom teams in the league going head-to-head in Vegas. Jacksonville will travel to Sin City to battle the Raiders in a meaningless game from a playoff perspective, but fantasy-wise could be interesting as players will be on the field looking to pad their stat sheet.

The Jags put up some decent yardage and cashed in on scoring opportunities last week against the Jets, so why not run it back against another bottom-tier defense in Vegas? Mac Jones is still dirt cheap along with Brian Thomas and tight end Brenton Strange who caught 11 of 12 targets for 73 yards and is still only $3,500 on DraftKings. All three Jags make nice GPP options along with running backs Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby.

Vegas will get their best matchup of the season facing a defense equally as bad as theirs. They’ll get Aiden O’Connell back under center finally after suffering a leg injury in Week 14. That’s great news for Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers this week, who will see plenty of better-quality targets against a Jags DVOA of 31st to opposing wide receivers. The Raiders may split carries between Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah, the latter however is more used in the passing game. I don’t mind either one facing a team that allows over 130 yards rushing and ranks 30th in the league defending the position.

Cash: Brock Bowers, Brenton Strange

GPP: Jakobi Meyers, Brian Thomas, Mac Jones, Aiden O’Connell, Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby, Alexander Mattison, Ameer Abdullah, Raiders DST

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 16! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!

What a Week 14 we had, the scores in our Discord nearly broke the slate with players like Zach Charbonnet and Isaac Guerendo stacked with Justin Jefferson and Josh Allen. It’s what makes me proud to see on Sunday evenings after all the hard work we put in here at WinDaily. Let’s run it back here in Week 15, we’ve jumped back up to 12 games on the slate so there will be a little more to break down. Let’s roll fellas, It’s getting down to the wire for the NFL Season.

Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.

Sunday Main Slate 12/15/24

Cowboys @ Panthers (-2.5) (O/U 43)

The Cowboys, fresh from another embarrassing loss at home, will travel to Carolina to face a Panthers campaign that is beginning to show some heart. Dallas cost themselves the win on Monday night thanks to a costly mistake of turning the ball over while Carolina put up an extremely strong effort on the road in Philadelphia that went down to the final play. Both teams are hungry to get back in the win column, so it should be competitive.

What a way to get back on your feet if you are the Cowboys as you get to play the Panthers on the schedule. Although they put up a good fight in Philly, they still stink at defending the run (32nd in the league). Rico Dowdle dominated the backfield against Cincy on Monday night racking up 141 total yards, and playing 77% of the snaps, Start him in cash or GPPs along with Jake Ferguson and CeeDee Lamb who are due to a bounce-back game against one of the worst defenses in football.

Dallas was shredded by Burrow and the Bengals Monday Night, which has been the norm for Cowboys fans to witness this season. If it wasn’t Ja’Marr Chase on the receiving end from Burrow, it was Chase Brown at running back torching the Dallas linebackers. With the disappointing news of Jonathan Brooks landing back on IR, Chuba Hubbard will lead the Carolina backfield again, and Dallas is just one notch better at stopping the run ranking 31st in the league. The veteran Adam Thielen once again gets the green light for DFS as he’s scored twenty-plus points in back-to-back games. I don’t mind Bryce Young either with his $5,300 salary on DraftKings in GPPs.

Cash: Rico Dowdle, Chuba Hubbard, CeeDee Lamb

GPP: Adam Thielen, Jake Ferguson, Bryce Young

Chiefs @ Browns (-4) (O/U 45)

The world champs continue to skate by their opponents by field goal victories and special team plays, and will look for one more in Cleveland this weekend. The Browns came up short against Pittsburgh last week, which was a loss that pretty much iced them out of playoff contention. While the Chiefs aim to lock up the first seed in the AFC, Jameis Winston and the Browns will be looking to play spoiler.

They keep winning, but it hasn’t been pretty for fantasy. It’s been defense and field goals that reflect the Kansas City record at 12-1, but can we keep rolling the dice on the pieces for DFS? Pat Mahomes and Travis Kelce remain the only trustworthy players to draft in your lineups, although Kelce has been in a slight slump recently. The Steve Spagnuolo defense is also a reliable play against a Jameis Winston-led offense that has thrown six picks in his last three games (Two for touchdowns).

Cleveland has unlocked vintage Jameis. The passing volume has been extraordinary with 99 passing attempts in his last two games. However vintage Jameis does turn the ball over, so take it with a grain of salt. Even though Kansas City has been a top-ten defense all season, Winston will keep chucking it as long as he is under center. Jerry Jeudy has been his biggest fan, grabbing 14 of 19 targets for 299 yards and two touchdowns. Elijah Moore and David Njoku can join Jeudy and Jameis in GPPs on the slate.

Cash: Patrick Mahomes, David Njoku (if healthy)

GPP: Travis Kelce, Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, Jameis Winston

Dolphins @ Texans (-3) (O/U 47)

Miami will look to keep the momentum rolling after their overtime win against the Jets in Houston, where a well-rested Texans team will be waiting to pounce. The Dolphins offense has gotten better, looking back to 100 percent finally after losing Tua earlier this season. But will they be able to keep up with the firepower in Texas led by Joe Mixon? It should be a fun game to watch and definitely a part of the slate to grab pieces of.

Although Miami ranks seventh against the run, allowing only 105 yards per game, it’s not enough to sway me away from Joe Mixon. He ranks second in the league in fantasy points per game (21.2) and scoring 12 total touchdowns so far this season. His presence also opens up routes for Nico Collins who’s been averaging 17 yards per catch on the year. Both make solid cash game plays while Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz are GPP options against a beatable Miami secondary.

The Dolphins are back and are making a run for a Wild Card berth thanks to the efficiency of Tua Tagovailoa. He’s averaging over 75% of his completions since Week 11 along with 308 yards and 23 fantasy points per game. He’ll be indoors and away from the elements in winter which helps him out tremendously against a Tesxans’ defense that is 22nd in DVOA to opposing QBs. He’s a value at quarterback for cash, and his arsenal of teammates are all very useable in tournaments this week in a meaningful game for Miami.

Cash: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Tua Tagovailoa

GPP: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane, Jonnu Smith, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz

Jets @ Jaguars (+3) (U/O 40.5)

The Jets land in a great matchup finally this week in a meaningless game against Jacksonville as their playoff hopes are over. The Jags season is over along with starting quarterback Trevor Lawrenece’s, so both clubs will be on the field to prove themselves for next season. The total is gross as well as these two teams’ records, but for DFS we could care less, let’s see who we can play out of this dumpster fire of a game.

When we get Jacksonville on the slate, our first instinct is to attack, and rightfully so (28th overall defense). However, they’ve picked up some of the pieces defensively, holding their last two opponents to just nine total points combined in each of the games’ first halves. The 40-year-old Rodgers still should be considered for GPPs at his low price tag of $5,400 on DraftKings regardless as he’ll continue to push for another run next season and prove his worth. Both Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson are viable pairing options for DFS, and at running back aim for the cheaper Isaiah Davis in the split backfield (Unless Breece Hall somehow gets healthy this week as he continues to miss practice).

Mac Jones has not been the answer fantasy-wise, although he did manage to pull together the team in a win against Tennessee. His teammates are rosterable, but there are not many in Jacksonville. Brian Thomas Jr sits on top of the target share chart, in his last two games with Jones, he’s caught 12 of 22 targets, one of them being in the endzone. Just keep an eye on the status of Sauce Gardner, who missed his last game due to injury. If he plays, he could slow down Thomas’ production.

Cash: None

GPP: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Isaiah Davis, Brian Thomas

Update: Breece Hall expected to play… downgrade to Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis

Commanders @ Saints (+7.5) (O/U 43)

The well-rested Commanders will travel after a bye week into New Orleans in a very winnable matchup to stay in contention of a Wild Card spot in the NFC. Meanwhile, the Saints could be rolling out some new faces in the offense this week as they may have lost starting quarterback Derek Carr after suffering a concussion and a fractured hand. We love Washington this week, but how much offense will they really need to turn out this week against a severely shorthanded Saints roster?

One of the hottest offenses in the NFC has made it back on the slate and will get a cupcake matchup indoors against a team that may struggle to move the football when it’s their turn on offense. The rookie Jayden Daniels can perform in this game without a doubt, but how much will he have to do? He’s always a lock for DFS in most cases but perhaps take the discount at running back with Brian Robinson Jr. and tight end Zach Ertz as opposed to paying up for Daniels and McLaurin. Not trying to steer you off these guys, just an option in case you would rather pay up elsewhere on the slate. Paying up for the Commanders’ defense is a solid play for $3,400 on DraftKings. One more note, Noah Brown landed on IR. Next man up is Dyami Brown who’s been playing 56% of Washington’s snaps. For $3,100 on DraftKings, he’s priced in for GPPs.

New Orleans will be a tough pill to swallow if you consider using anyone for DFS this week against one of the top five pass defenses in the league—bad news for whoever gets the start at quarterback which may likely be Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener. Although I can only see one possibility of using any Saints this week for DFS it would be Kendre Miller. Miller’s $4,500 DraftKings salary against a Commanders defense that allows over 137 yards per game (Only if Kamara is out).

Cash: Brian Robinson Jr., Jayden Daniels, Commanders DST

GPP: Zach Ertz, Terry McLaurin, Kendre Miller, Dyami Brown

Ravens @ Giants (+14.5) (O/U 43)

Baltimore also returns from their bye week and will ease back into the regular season as they face the pitiful 2-11 Giants in the Meadowlands. New York can’t finish their 2024 campaign any sooner as they will defer back to third-string quarterback Tommy DeVito as backup Drew Lock ended up in a walking boot. The number-one-ranked rushing offense will face the third-worst run defense, so you already know what direction we are heading for in this matchup.

The red carpet will be rolled out for King Henry at MetLife Stadium as the league’s leader in touchdowns (15) and second in rushing (1,407) will face a Giants’ team that allows over 140 yards per game. He’s a lock for cash if you can afford this Raven battering ram. The rest of his teammates are GPP options including Lamar Jackson, who may be on ice in the second half if this game gets out of hand.

Cutlets will get a second start this year filling in for Drew Lock, but after his performance back in Week 12 we should all be looking the other way for fantasy. He took four sacks against Tampa and only threw for 180 yards, with no attempts to Malik Nabers in the first half. Baltimore will bring plenty of pressure and force DeVito into making mistakes, so their defense is in play for DFS.

Cash: Derrick Henry, Ravens DST

GPP: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman

Bengals @ Titans (+5) (O/U 47)

Tennessee will host one of the most pass-heavy offenses in football in the Bengals. Cincinnati kept their playoff hopes alive with a win in Dallas as the Titans let one slip away last weekend against the one-win Jaguars. We’ve all witnessed what Burrow is capable of with his core receivers back at full strength recently, so don’t sleep on this matchup. Cincy needs to win against this pass-funnel-style defense so get some shares of this offense.

Joe Burrow leads the league in passing yards and touchdowns, need I say more about the Bengals for DFS? Force them in on any given slate. Ja’marr Chase and Tee Higgins are household names, but the real story is behind second-year Illinois back Chase Brown. Since taking over the entire backfield in Week 9 he’s averaged five catches per game. The Bengals will feast on the Titans’ 27th overall defense.

They’re not as weaponized as Cincinnati, but the defense Tennessee will face is just as beatable as their own. Although the Titans did put up a giant egg against the deplorable Jaguars, what can we expect from Will Levis this time out? I believe in second chances, especially coming off a bad week prior. Give Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and Tyler Boyd a shot in tournaments facing a Bengals’ secondary that is bottom of the league in passing and rushing touchdowns with 40 total allowed.

Cash: Joe Burrow, Ja’Maar Chase

GPP: Chase Brown, Tee Higgins, Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tyler Boyd, Will Levis

Patriots @ Cardinals (-5.5) (O/U 45.5)

The Cardinals, looking to gain ground in the playoff race, will host a young Patriots team that has been keeping its opponents honest. Last weekend, the Patriots barely lost to the Colts. New England has lost by a touchdown or less in six of their ten losses, so Arizona better brings their “A” game to the table if they want to reach the postseason. This matchup will float under the radar on the slate, so for GPPs take some guys from this game for leverage in tournaments.

The Pats have been middle of the pack defending against both ways of moving the football, so there’s no edge as far as a position to attack in this game for DFS. This game is a must-win for Arizona who have dropped three straight and fell to third in the NFC West. Kyler Murray, James Conner, and Trey McBride have all been the backbone of the offense, and Marvin Harrison Jr. will show up now and then. Kyler at $6K is robbery and a solid cash play this week while the rest are tournament plays.

Drake Maye has truly been fitting the part for New England, averaging over 250 yards with four touchdowns over his past three games. His rushing has also been fantastic this season, totaling 345 and a touchdown in his eight starts. Hunter Henry has been locked and loaded in the offense, ranking fourth in air yards and seventh in targets amongst tight ends. The receiver room is crowded in New England, but Kayshon Boutte remains on the field with a 90% snap share. He’s affordable at $3,500 on DraftKings, so he’s a great way to get different and save some salary at the same time.

Cash: Kyler Murray, Hunter Henry, Trey McBride

GPP: Drake Maye, Kayshon Boutte, James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr.

Colts @ Broncos (-4) (O/U 44)

Indy is back on the slate after a bye week and will land in Denver to battle Bo Nix and the Broncos, who are also back from a week off. The total is only 44, but the matchups for some of these players should hit their value this week. Both teams are aiming to make the playoffs, so it should be an intense game on hand.

The Colts rank 26th in defending the pass and 31st in defending the run, so pick your poison on the Denver side of the offense. The problem lies in the Broncos backfield, however, as head coach Sean Payton will play the hot hand in a three-headed monster at running back (Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Audric Estime). Your safest path for DFS is to avoid the position and hammer in Bo Nix and Courtland Sutton. The duo have connected on 86 of 104 targets for the season, and fellow rookie Devaughn Vele at $4,200 on DraftKings is tempting at his salary against this defense.

Anthony Richardson has turned his game around after returning from the bench in the second half of the season. He’s done his work on the ground, rushing for three scores and over twenty fantasy points in two of his last three games, The last we saw the Broncos’ defense they allowed 32 points to Cleveland, giving us some optimism they may bleed again this week. Josh Downs will continue to demand the football from Richardson, especially if Pittman is to be covered by Patrick Surtain. Jonathan Taylor on price tag alone ($6,900 on DraftKings) is way too cheap and a great way to get different at running back in tournaments, regardless of the matchup.

Cash: Bo Nix

GPP: Courtland Sutton, Anthony Richardson, Josh Downs, Devaughn Vele, Jonathan Taylor

Bills @ Lions (-2.5) (O/U 54.5)

Behold, the game of the week will be played in the Motor City as the Bills take on the Lions in a potential Super Bowl LIV preview. The highest total of the weekend will feature some of the biggest names in the game, including MVP candidate Josh Allen. The field will pound this game for roster spots so it will be good chalk and loaded with cash game options. Both teams will be fired up and playing for a first-place seed with a bye in the playoffs, so let’s see who we’ll be scooping up for our lineups.

Josh Allen has been playing on another planet. How can you fade a guy who put up 54 DraftKings points last week and is now in another potential barn burner again? You don’t, just figure out how to build around him. Amari Cooper saw 14 targets against the Rams and is way underpriced at $5,300 on DK, so he caught my eye when it comes to stacking with the expensive Allen. His targets may go down though with the return of Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid if healthy, but his price is worth the risk.

You just can’t go wrong with anyone in Detroit these days and their record of 12-1 speaks for itself. Detroit will look to start the game by establishing the run, and against a Bills’ run defense that allows 123 yards per game and 30th in DVOA to opposing backs, taking Jahmyr Gibbs or David Montgomery as a no-brainer in this atmosphere. Everyone else is in play so don’t feel like you need to focus only on the backs. If Josh Allen goes off, Jared Goff will be forced to keep up the pace with targets to Amon-Ra, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta. Tim Patrick as the number three receiver in this offense has also picked up a head of steam, catching two touchdowns in Week 14. Consider him in GPPs where as the rest of Detroit can be played in both formats.

Cash: Josh Allen, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown

GPP: Jared Goff, Amari Cooper, Jameson Williams, Tim Patrick, James Cook, Sam LaPorta, Khalil Shakir

Bucs @ Chargers (-3) (U/O 45.5)

The Chargers will host Baker Mayfield and the Bucs in LA as both teams look to make a run at the playoffs. Justin Herbert has been disappointing, but he gets another great matchup at home. Can we trust him one more time? Baker on the other hand has a rough road ahead of him facing a top-three defense of LA.

The Bucs are gross against the pass, period. That secondary allows the third-most passing yards in the league, which sets quarterback Justin Herbert one more time to shine. But hopefully, Ladd McConkey can suit up and shake his knee and shoulder injuries. Keep a close eye on his status in the second half of the slate. If he’s ruled out Quentin Johnston will become LA’s number-one wideout by default followed by Joshua Palmer. For some extra value at the tight end position, consider Stone Smartt who will be filling in for Will Dissly. Tampa is 27th in DVOA to the tight end and at $2,600 on DraftKings Smartt could be a wise move in GPPs.

I’m out on Tampa this week. Baker, Mike Evans, and Cade Otton are way too priced up on the road against this tough matchup. However, If Bucky Irving gets ruled out during pre-game warm-ups, then Rachaad White could be useful in a late swap. He scored 25 fantasy points owning the lion’s share of the backfield when Bucky went down against Vegas. Be prepared to swap out White and keep him in your flex if you are feeling another turnout for him. especially in the passing game.

Cash: Justin Herbert

GPP: Ladd McConkey (if healthy), Quentin Johnston, Stone Smartt, Rachaad White (if Irving is out)

Steelers @ Eagles (-5) (U/O 42.5)

Lastly, we end the slate with the battle of bragging rights for Pennsylvania as the Steelers take on the Eagles. Both clubs have a ton of momentum going for them as they each stand in first place in both of their divisions. Two very solid defenses as well as respectable offenses will clash on primetime, so break out the popcorn.

Pittsburgh has been stingy all season allowing their opponents to move the football on paper, except when they face an elite opponent (Burrow and the Bengals scored 38 on them in Week 13). But I wouldn’t stack up on Eagles for cash, keep them in tournaments. Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and company will get the green light every day of the week, AJ Brown has been voicing his frustrations about his role in the offense recently. If the squeaky wheel gets its grease this week, Brown would be another sweet tournament move.

Pittsburgh’s Russell Wilson will see the true test of his resurgence this week against an Eagles front seven that has devoured every opposing quarterback in their path since Week 4 with Baker Mayfield. But they have the future Hall of Fame coach of Mike Tomlin to figure out how to move the football, which has led them to a 10-3 record this season. They’ll be without George Pickens for another week, which will give Pat Freirmuth another bump in volume for one more game. The Steelers may also choose to run with their duo in the backfield of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren with the George Pickens injury. Mike Williams, Calvin Austin, and Van Jefferson round up the receiving room but are extremely risky as they all put up duds last week without Pickens in the lineup.

Cash: Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, Pat Freiermuth

GPP: AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Russell Wilson

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 15! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!

Welcome back to another breakdown as we get another week closer to the playoffs and the season coming to an end. It was another spot on the weekend with a few surprises, but nothing we haven’t seen before in football. Bryce Young, Tommy Tremble, and Adam Thielen were all talked up last week and provided a ton of value while saving your salary if you dropped them in your lineups. Let’s get right to Week 14 fellas, it’s crunch time.

Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.

Sunday Main Slate 12/8/24

Panthers @ Eagles (-12) (O/U 46)

The Panthers pack up and hit the road for the “City of Brotherly Love”, but will not see a warm welcoming as 12-point dogs to the Eagles. It’s one of the best hosting one of the worst teams in the NFC, a great matchup for Philly who has been playing on a full head of steam all year. This game seems to be pretty cut and dry so let’s take a look.

The Bucs capitalized last week in Carolina by feeding the ball to Bucky Irving against the worst run defense in the NFL. He made the article last week as well and brought in a sexy 5X value for 30-plus DK points. Mike Evans also had a field day when Baker chose to throw it to his main man, Mike Evans, who hit him up for 28 DKFPTS. Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and AJ Brown are all in great spots at home this weekend, but perhaps if DeVonta Smith gets healthy at $5,800 on DraftKings the Eagles may want to begin to ramp him up for the playoffs as he’s missed his last two games.

Bryce Young showed us even more last weekend against Tampa, throwing for 298 yards and a touchdown while also rushing in a score himself for nearly 6X his price tag. The real test will be on the cold field of Lincoln Financial against a top-five run and passing defense. This may not be the week to double down on Carolina for DFS in this matchup, but ownership will be very low if you are looking for leverage with another shot at any of these players. Pay up for the Philly D if you can afford them.

Cash: Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, Eagles DST

GPP: AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith (if healthy)

Raiders @ Bucs (-6.5) (O/U 46)

Vegas will head south to face off against a playoff-hungry Bucs team coming off an emotional OT win in Carolina. The Raiders however are beginning to show some precision themselves after Aidan O’Connell returned from IR to throw his arm off in a valiant effort in Kansas City. We targeted that Tampa secondary last week with Carolina and cashed in, so should we run it back?

I can’t get enough silver and black in my DFS lineups this week after what I witnessed against the Bucs last week. Jordan Whitehead and Tykee Smith are severely missed in this secondary that currently has allowed the third most in passing yardage and sixth most passing touchdowns. Aidan O’Connell along with Jakobi Meyers,, Tre Tucker, and Brock Bowers are staples for GPP tournaments. Pay attention to the backfield injury reports as well for Vegas, as we may be able to use Ameer Abdulah and Sincere McCormick if Mattison and White remain sidelined.

Tampa may seem to have a nice matchup on paper against Vegas, but the Raiders are building off a game in Kansas City that held their opponents to one touchdown and sacked Pat Mahomes five times with a fumble. Baker Mayfield hopefully recovers quickly after a cleat stepped on his leg last Sunday because these Raiders could be trouble these days. For DFS we can’t fade any of these Bucs, especially in a shortened slate. All are safe for cash and GPPs, keep an eye out on injury status as always. I love the min-priced Raiders defense ($2,300 on DraftKings) if they do show up again.

Cash: Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Brock Bowers, Baker Mayfield

GPP: Aiden O’Connell, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, Cade Otton, Raiders DST

Jets @ Dolphins (-6) (O/U 44.5)

The Jets will travel to Miami in an AFC East battle as both teams are on their last legs to make the playoffs. New York, losers of three straight, has struggled on both sides of the football all season and will make one final push to save face. Miami, on the other hand, has found its rhythm again offensively thanks to the return of Tagovailoa. It’s a decent-sized spread of 6, but these two teams know each other pretty well, and it could be a tight game. Here are the DFS plays.

If Aaron Rodgers has anything left in his tank, hopefully, he empties some this weekend in Miami. He’s lately reconnected with Davante Adams in the last three games they’ve connected on 17 of 32 targets for 169 yards and a touchdown. It’s not the most exciting, but the targets are what interests me. Expect a heavy passing game from Rodgers as running back Breece Hall continues to miss practice. Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard off IR should see extra looks on Sunday, and if Hall doesn’t suit up, Braelon Allen becomes a lock for cash games at $5,000 on DraftKings.

Rodgers can not take all the blame for the Jets’ failure this season, their defense has been a dumpster fire giving up score after score putting them in losing situations. Gang Green has allowed crucial game-deciding touchdowns in their last three games. The Dolphins have averaged thirty points per game over their last three wins and will be too much to handle for New York who still have no answers on defense. De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, and Tua Tagovailoa all show up this weekend along with Jonnu Smith who has been a monster piece for this Dolphins’ offense (25 REC/301 YDS/3 TDS in last three games).

Cash: Jonnu Smith, De’Von Achane, Braelon Allen (if Breece Hall is Out)

GPP: Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard

Update: Breece Hall is OUT

Falcons @ Vikings (-5.5) (U/O 45.5)

We next get a weather-friendly game in Minnesota as the NFC South-leading Falcons take on the Vikings. Minnesota is a solid 10-2 that has been coached up this season thanks to Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores. There’ll also be some familiar faces in town that may have a chip on their shoulder from a year ago, so a revenge game narrative is in effect here. Let’s check it out.

Kirk Cousins is back in town, but will he be ready to get everything off of his chest? After being allowed to test free agency last season, Cousins quickly signed to Atlanta after spending his last six with the Vikings. He’s struggled his last three games, only completing 63% of his passes with five picks. Cousins regardless is a solid GPP option on a short slate connected to Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Kyle Pitts, against a pass-funnel Vikings defense. I will never talk you off Bijan Robinson either, with a solid price of $7,500 on DraftKings.

Minnesota will be welcoming Cousins back this week, but will not be rolling out the red carpet I guarantee. He left abruptly, without any chance for Minnesota to counter-offer Atlanta’s deal. Here we are in Week 14 with Kevin O’Connell molding Sam Darnold into a respectable quarterback of a 10-win team. The Falcons ranked 22nd overall defending their own endzone in points allowed, who are 21st in DVOA to opposing quarterbacks and receivers. However, I’m not afraid to use any Viking this week, especially Justin Jefferson, whose salary has dropped to under $8K and is due a big game after the last few quiet outings.

Cash: Justin Jefferson, Bijan Robinson, Drake London

GPP: Kirk Cousins, Darnell Mooney, TJ Hockenson, Kyle Pitts, Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison

Saints @ Giants (+5) (O/U 40.5)

The New York Giants are heavy home underdogs, and their total against a disheveled Saints team at the Meadowlands is depressingly low. The forecast does look promising after a cold spell in the NorthEast, so we may be in luck for some big plays from each team’s stars. Both teams are also playing for pride, as their records are hovering at the bottom of the standings.

Both clubs have horrid defenses, and when the two of them clash it makes us do backflips for DFS. The Giants have been gashed in the trenches all year long, allowing the fourth most yards per game at 145. Alvin Kamara stands alone in the backfield now that Taysom Hill is done for the season and is a pay-up cash play at running back. New Orleans is severely thin on offense, which may force more targets to tight ends, such as Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau from Derek Carr.

New Orleans is also guilty of hemorrhaging yardage, the third most total yards per game in the league. It will be Lock, not DeVito under center for New York so we should have a little more faith in them moving the chains. Lock, Nabers, Tracy, and now Daniel Bellinger all make the GPP list against the dejected Saints’ defense. Both defenses are also a fair play this week too given the history of turnovers between the two.

Cash: Alvin Kamara, Juwan Johnson

GPP: Malik Nabers, Drew Lock, Tyrone Tracy, Daniel Bellinger, MVS, Mason Tipton, Giants DST, Saints DST

Browns @ Steelers (-6.5) (O/U 44)

An AFC North matchup hits the slate as the rejuvenated Jameis Winston and the Browns head into the Steel City to face Pittsburgh. Russell Wilson has also found his swagger back after firing off over 400 yards with three touchdowns against Cincinnati last week. It’s a low total that will be played on the cold field of Arcisure Stadium but after what we witnessed between both clubs last week it’s safe to dip back for DFS.

The Steelers have ranked sixth overall on defense but were ransacked by Burrow and the Bengals for 300-plus yards and three touchdowns. If Winston brings the same fire from his last game in Denver, we may have another AFC North shootout. Jerry Jeudy has been fully unlocked in this new and improved pass-heavy offense along with David Njoku and Elijah Moore. However Jameis has gone back to some old habits throwing two pick-sixes last week, so the Steelers DST is another spot to target in lineups.

Cleveland did step up defensively on the road with two picks but gave up 29 points thanks to Winston. Erase those 14 points and they win in Denver, but we’re in Pittsburgh now. Wilson has found his mojo and will keep the momentum moving at home. George Pickens, Wilson’s main target in the offense, somehow came up with a hamstring injury on Friday, so monitoring his status will be a priority up until kickoff. If he can’t suit up, Pat Friermuth, Calvin Austin, Mike Williams, and Van Jefferson will all see an uptick. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will also be involved more if he is in fact out.

Cash: George Pickens (if healthy), Russell Wilson

GPP: Jameis Winston, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, Pat Friermuth, Elijah Moore

Jaguars @ Titans (-3.5) (O/U 39.5)

I have high hopes for this AFC South matchup regardless of the sub-forty total. Two horrendous defenses will meet face-to-face once again this weekend in Tennessee, so giddy up. The 3-9 Titans will host the 2-10 Jaguars in a matchup being played for draft positioning and future employment next season. Ignore the Vegas total for DFS, here’s why.

The Jags have surrendered chunks of yardage and touchdowns to their opponents all season, allowing nearly 275 through the air and 133 on the ground, along with 28 points per game on average. We gobble up players for DFS with these kinds of matchups, and Levis at $5,000 on DraftKings can easily reach 3X his value on the slate. Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine all make it into lineups across any format.

Now Tennessee does not allow a ton of yardage, and ranks second in the league, however, they do allow touchdowns. Twenty through the air and fourteen on the ground to be exact, and the defense is now hanging on by a thread after reading their injury report. Mac Jones returns under center for the Jags and will be peppering targets to Evan Engram and Brian Thomas all afternoon, so get them in your GPPs.

Cash: Tony Pollard, Will Levis, Calvin Ridley

GPP: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Mac Jones, Brian Thomas, Evan Engram

Seahawks @ Cardinals (-2.5) (O/U 44.5)

As we enter the late afternoon slate it kicks off in the NFC West as the Seahawks desperately try to keep the second-place Cardinals off their lead in the division. The last time these two played was just only two weeks ago as Seattle won 16-6 in a battle between the kickers. Hopefully, we see some end-zone visits this weekend in the desert, so let’s check in and see who’s available.

The Cardinals have dropped their last two games to fall to second in the division but will be all hands on deck at home to regain position. Trey McBride was bombarded with targets in their first meeting, cashing in 12 of 15 for 133 yards. McBride should see heavy volume once again as the Cardinals seek to take back first place.

The Seahawks will be without Kenneth Walker this week due to a calf and ankle injury, so fire up Zach Charbonnet in your cash or GPP lineups for only $4,800 on DraftKings. Jaxson Smith Njigba you may want to consider also, as he was the beneficiary of the last game’s only touchdown, however, DK Metcalf is always a solid play on any DFS slate for his ceiling. Both are priced affordably on DraftKings in the low $6K range.

Cash: Zach Charbonnet, Trey McBride

GPP: Jaxson Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf

Bills @ Rams (+4.5) (O/U 49.5)

Now comes the highest total on the slate at 49.5 as the Bills fly to the West Coast to face the Rams on Primetime. Buffalo has looked invincible of late, winners of seven straight games including The Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs. Josh Allen is MVP-bound and is set to make his debut in Hollywood. The Rams do have the firepower to compete with anyone in the league, but will it be enough to put out Buffalo’s fire?

Stafford’s arm has been busy this season, as he’s eighth in pass attempts. Although he’s thrown for almost 700 yards and 8 touchdowns in his last three games, the Bills have defended the pass very well. Against the run, not so well. They allow an average of 122 yards per game on the ground and are 30th in DVOA to opposing running backs. I’ll never tell you to fade Kupp, Nacua, or Stafford, but Kyren Williams may be the most reasonable play against Buffalo. All are GPP and cash game plays.

Josh Allen is a lock week in and week out across the DFS community as we’ve seen over the past few seasons, but who else can be trusted for the Bills in DFS for production? The ball is spread so evenly by Allen that it’s impossible to guess who will go off when all of his receivers are healthy, but we can always count on Cook. James ranks eighth in the league in fantasy points per game averaging just over 17. Both are great for cash, but anyone else should be kept in tournaments only.

Cash: Josh Allen, Kyren Williams, James Cook

GPP: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Matt Stafford, Khalil Shakir

Bears @ Niners (-4) (O/U 44)

Finally, we end the slate in the Bay Area as the struggling and injury-prone Forty Niners host the Bears who are losers of six straight. Injuries bring value to lineups, and a very popular player this week will be uncovered in this part of the breakdown, who should see the highest ownership on the slate. The Niners are desperate for a win, and the Bears may be happy to oblige as their defense has been a wreck.

If you thought San Fransisco’s luck couldn’t get any worse, think again. Not only did they lose McCaffrey again to IR, but they also lost backup running back Jordan Mason. Ownership will be through the roof for Isaac Guerendo to take the reigns at lead back this week, so start him at cash. But for GPPs, it’s perhaps best to pivot to some of the Niner pass-catchers such as George Kittle and Deebo Samuel in a must-win game for Frisco.

Despite the amount of losses and missteps, the rookie Caleb Williams has flourished under new head coach and former OC Tom Brown. In his last two games, Williams has thrown for nearly 600 yards with five touchdowns and NO interceptions. I will take a flyer on Caleb in GPPs with his low $5,600 pricetag on DraftKings along with his veteran receivers DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Cole Kmet was the forgotten man on Thanksgiving and should remain that again as the Niners are third in DVOA to opposing tight ends.

Cash: Isaac Guerendo

GPP: George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 14! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!