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FanDuel

Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Patrick Cantlay ($11,200) – I think many Patrick Cantlay constructions will have very similar starts this week to their builds. I would be conscious in realizing that before utilizing the second-highest owned player on the board in the standard Cantlay/Jason Day, Cantlay/Maverick McNealy or Cantlay/Kevin Streelman type of start. Cantlay is the best player in this field, but you will need to make sure to utilize him correctly.

Jordan Spieth ($10,300) –Jordan Spieth has finished inside the top-22 at this event in eight of his nine attempts, with the lone outlier coming during his cold stretch in 2019 – an event he still managed to end 45th after losing 6.4 shots with his ball-striking. It is hard to call this a boom-or-bust selection when his course history reads like a beautiful story, but the 28-year-old is someone that can be used as a leverage play at his current ownership marks.

Other Consideration – If you can find someone else that is in this field in the $10,000s, either play them or fade them because you have hacked the site.

$9,000 Range

Jason Day ($9,900) – In the words of the great Eminem, “Guess who’s back, back again. Day is back, tell a friend.”

Maverick McNealy ($9,800) – Maverick McNealy is shaping up to be the most popular player on the board, but you aren’t going to find too many negatives about him outside of ownership. I believe Seamus Power ($9,400) is the most natural pivot to McNealy on the board (I actually like Seamus more in a vacuum), but there are builds where the California native will make sense.

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,200) – I don’t have an answer for why Matthew Fitzpatrick doesn’t have better history at Pebble Beach. A short course where Poa putting and par-five scoring both loom large sounds like a recipe where the Englishman would compete, but a 60th and missed cut here since 2020 has dampened some of the intrigue around him for his first worldwide start of 2022. The hesitation has moved him into a range where he is only projected to be six percent owned, which is way too shallow for a golfer with tangible win equity this week.

Other Targets: I meantioned Seamus Power ($9,400) in the portion above. He is one of my favorite targets this week in all price ranges. Spieth/Seamus, Day/Seamus or Cantlay/Seamus would be a strong start.

$8,000 Range

Matt Jones ($8,000) – There isn’t much early love for Matt Jones, who has made the cut at Pebble Beach during 12 of his 14 attempts throughout his career. I bet Jones at 70/1 in the outright market and love his statistical potential where he grades inside the top-21 in five of the seven categories I looked into for the week.

Other Thoughts: Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,700) is perfectly acceptable in cash and GPP builds. Ryan Palmer ($8,900) has also received a ton of influential money in the industry. I prefer him for GPP-only if I am going to use him, but sharp money is always worth noting.

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading. This group is extremely strong this week.

Chris Kirk ($7,700) – Chris Kirk is a great wind player that excels at short courses. He also ranks number one in this field in par-four scoring between 400-450 yards.

Andrew Putnam ($7,600) – Six made cuts in his last seven starts. Ownership remains subdued at just six percent. Consider him a nice pivot off of a trendy Matt Kuchar (who I do like myself).

Patrick Rodgers ($7,400) – Patrick Rodgers is a much better player around the green than most of his counterparts in this range, ranking 11th over his past 24 rounds. The risk is on full display after missing three of his past four cuts at the course, but I’m willing to ignore some of the negatives because of the upside he brings at sub-five percent ownership.

Taylor Pendrith ($7,200) – If you are looking to get frisky this week, Taylor Pendrith is breaking my model when looking for upside. I had to reduce his numbers across the board to get him into his 20th-place total for GPPs.

Sahith Theegala ($7,200) – Sahith Theegala is buzzing to start 2022, positing three straight finishes inside the top-48 — with every result better than his previous. These tests where scrambling will come into play are always right in his wheelhouse, and I think he has the intangibles to find success in this sort of a rotational structure.

Additional Thoughts: Vincent Whaley ($7,100), Scott Stallings ($7,100), Wyndham Clark ($7,000)

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: I would play down here sparringly. You can hear Sia Nejad, Joel Schreck and I rattle off some names on the ‘Live Show.’

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3 years ago 0 comments

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 2/2

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 2/2

We get nine games tonight and the top end of the salary grid is positively loaded with options in excellent spots. Since this is the NBA, the landscape will certainly change before lock but we can start to outline what we like in NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 2/2!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Trail Blazers at Lakers

Trail Blazers – The bulk of the game stacks tonight are later on in the evening and the game in the least window is super appealing since both teams are bottom 12 in defensive rating and the Lakers are top-five in pace. Both Jusuf Nurkic and Anfernee Simons are probable but the main player I’m focused on is C.J. McCollum even at $8,100. He leads in usage at 28.6% and the Lakers can’t defend ball-handlers at all this season. If the build doesn’t allow for McCollum, Simons is very interesting as well with a 26.2% usage rate and both players are scoring dependent so the discount isn’t the worst thing in the world. He’s coming off a terrible game as well so the salary is low and Simons isn’t likely to shoot 3-16 again since he’s had a 57.4% true shooting rate on the season without Damian Lillard.

Lakers – I’m not sure there are many more uncomfortable phrases in the DFS landscape than “I love Anthony Davis”, yet here we are. Portland is 24th in points allowed in the paint and 10th in rebounds allowed but Nurkic does not know how to defense, to quote the goat Ghost. Davis is seventh in paint touches with 10 per game and sixth in points scored in the paint with 9.5. On top of that, LeBron James is listed as doubtful and when he’s out, Davis has a 29.8% usage rate and leads the team with 1.39 points per minute. I can’t stomach Russell Westbrook anymore than the actual Lakers and the only value play that I would be interested in is Malik Monk if he plays. He’s shooting 41.3% from deep this year and Portland is still 0.5% away from allowing the highest 3-point FG% across the league.

Nets at Kings

Nets – This is one of the primary game stacks, but the status of both Kyrie Irving and James Harden are vital to the game and the entire slate. Kyrie has not played on a back-to-back yet this season but he’s also playing normal minutes and Kevin Durant remains out. They both have over 1.30 points per minute and at least a 30% usage rate so against the Kings, both would be worthwhile investments and it depends on the build around them. If one of these players sits, the other is one of the best spend-up options on the slate. Both teams are in the top 10 in pace and Sacramento is 29th in defensive rating. Nicholas Claxton would be of interest as well since LaMarcus Aldridge is out and Claxton has 0.97 points per minute. The Kings are in the bottom 10 in points and rebounds allowed in the paint so this is a dynamite spot.

Kings – Hopefully we get a lean on De’Aaron Fox before lock because if he remains out for his sixth straight game, Tyrese Haliburton is a strong play once again. He sporting 1.05 points per minute and a massive 39.3% assists rate in an elite game environment, and that means Davion Mitchell should start again as well. He’s played at least 30 minutes in each of the past four games and has hit over 29 DK points in three straight while he sits under $5,000 again. Harrison Barnes would be the last of the trio that I would give consideration but he is GPP-only because his production is erratic. Even in the past five games, he has two over 40 DK and one of just 12.

Thunder at Mavericks

Thunder – The Thunder will be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander through the All-Star break so the salary looks high for Josh Giddey but he can still get there. He only played 33 minutes last game and the Thunder pulled away in the fourth so he had a few minutes shaved off his time on the court, making it easy to see where he can get to 45 DK. Lu Dort is always in play too but he wouldn’t be a cash play unless he’s overwhelming chalk because his shot comes and goes a lot. His true shooting rate is 48.9% without SGA but the usage is 26.9% so it’s really just a matter of if he can get hot from the floor.

Mavericks – Tim Hardaway Jr. had foot surgery during the week and Kristaps Porzingis remains out so Luka Doncic will be popular and I can’t mount an argument against it. His usage rate is 39.6%, the points per minute is 1.67, and the assist rate is 49.2% when KP and THJ are off the floor and the ceiling is 70+ DraftKings points like it was last game. While Jalen Brunson, Maxi Kleber, and Dorian Finney-Smith are in play and I want to see what the model does with them, my attention is focused on a different model darling from his last game – Marquese Chriss. He went from 16 minutes to 19 in the last game and he has a 124-minute sample size this season without KP and THJ. The minutes are not secure but 1.21 points per minute at potentially 20 minutes against the Thunder frontcourt is massively appealing at stone minimum.

Honorable Mention – Hornets at Celtics

Teams To Monitor

Pacers – Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, Myles Turner, and Goga Bitadze are all out tonight for Indy and Isaiah Jackson is likely going to be popular again. His price rose by $1,300 but he also played 30 minutes and went for 46 DraftKings points so the field is likely happy to go back to the well.

76ers – They will still be missing Shake Milton and Furkan Korkmaz so the easiest route to get some exposure would be Seth Curry. Even if he just plays 35 minutes without overtime, he’s only $5,300 and shoots 40.3% from deep. He shot 4-15 last game and is due for a rebound, which could push him well over 30 DraftKings points tonight.

Jazz – Rudy Gobert is out, Donovan Mitchell is out, Joe Ingles has suffered an ACL injury, and Hassan Whiteside is questionable. Not only could the Jazz bring us some value in players like Jordan Clarkson and Bojan Bogdanovic but the flip side is they may have nobody to guard Nikola Jokic.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/01

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Another great NBA slate awaits after we made great lineups yesterday featuring a balanced mix of value plays and mid range studs. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Washington Wizards

While they are going to be in tough tonight, there is certainly an appeal when it comes to the Wizards rotation versus Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks. Washington will be without franchise star Bradley Beal tonight, meaning there will not only more minutes to go around, rather, more offensive looks for a ton of players. With Beal out of the lineup / off the court this season, the greatest beneficiary has been Kyle Kuzma, who sees a 3.6% increase in usage rate and his FPPM increase from 1.03 to 1.13. Moreover, Spencer Dinwiddie, who is rumored to be on the trading block, not only sees a drastic increase in both scoring and assist rate, but also in usage rate and overall production; Dinwiddie will now be the primary ball handler with Beal off the court, where his usage rate increases from 21% to 25.8%, in addition to seeing his FPPM increase from 0.95 to 1.14.

Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors

The key news in this game will be the status of Jimmy Butler, but either way, I want exposure to the battle of two Eastern Conference heavyweights. By now, you know the theme of me wanting Toronto Raptors in my NBA lineup, not only because they’re playing great basketball as of late, but because Nick Nurse simply runs his starters into the ground. The starting 5 of Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent Jr, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, and Pascal Siakam will be forced once again to play heavy minutes, whereby the matchup favors Gary Trent Jr and OG Anunoby the most, whom will see no Jimmy Butler as a defensive matchup.

Golden State Warriors

On the second half of a back-to-back, this game is one that I also want exposure to in our NBA lineups, specifically in the backcourt with Klay Thompson resting for the Warriors. Jordan Poole will take on more offensive responsibility alongside Steph Curry, in addition to Andrew Wiggins picking up longer stints in the rotation. On the Spurs side of the ball, it will come to no surprise that my only interest is in Dejounte Murray, who makes his return to the lineup after resting, along with Derrick White and Jakob Poeltl, in their last game.

Brooklyn Nets @ Phoenix Suns

A game with a ton of fireworks, we need exposure to this one in our NBA lineups in some sort of way. Whether it’s at the top of the pricing grid between the duos of James Harden and Kyrie Irving versus Chris Paul and Devin Booker, or in the mid range with Cam Johnson, Bismack Biyombo, and/or Nic Claxton, there is plenty to love about this one. Key news has already dropped with LaMarcus Aldridge (ankle) being ruled out, hence the interest in Claxton. However, this NBA slate can change on a dime should James Harden, who is questionable with a hand injury, miss this one. Stay tuned.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Initial Picks

Sia 3 years ago

written by Sia

We’re almost done with the “course rotation swing”, but we still have one hurdle to traverse, and it lies at The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. We have three courses that play relatively similar (more on that on the PGA Livestream Tuesday night which can be caught here) and therefore we will have the cut after Round 3 as opposed to Round 2. For my Initial Picks my focus will be on APP, PROX 100-125, ARG, BS and course history. Now let’s get to the picks.

Patrick Cantlay (11200) – He’s the best player in the field and his price is not prohibitive. I’m not locking him in by any means, but he’s the favorite for a reason.

Daniel Berger (10500) – There’s a good chance I start a lot of lineups in the 9k range or that I grab Cantlay and bounce right out of this range, but with that said, Berger is playing at an elite level and he’s the defending champ at The AT&T.

Maverick McNealy (9800) – Mav is from the area and will be among the most comfortable on these three tracks, as evidenced by his 2^nd and 5^th place finish over the last two years. He’s also coming in with good form.

Justin Rose (9600) – Speaking of good form, Justin is starting to find his game in all phases. Last week he gained strokes across the board and he’s finished Top 15 in 3 of his last 4 PGA events.

Seamus Power (9400) – Seamus feels like a newer name to most onlookers but he’s been around the block long enough to have played in this tournament 4 of the last 5 years. His results have been below average with two MC’s and no finishes above 38^th, but today’s Seamus is a different animal and he’s coming in with elite form.

Tom Hoge (8500) – Hoge can get very hot on APP and has the short game to put it all together. The problem is it can also go off the rails here and there. Either way, I think the upside is there for Hoge and I’m willing to play the volatility game with him, unless his ownership is high.

Michael Thompson (7900) – The results have been up and down at the AT&T for Thompson, but the bearded one has taken on a new look and a newfound game with two Top 11 finishes over his last three tournaments. He certainly has MC equity but his ability to pop on APP and with the short game has me interested.

Lucas Glover (7800) – Another middling name with tremendous upside, particularly on APP. Glover has his issues ARG and PUTT, but over the last few tournaments, that has improved enough for me to hope it’s a trend rather than an aberration. Give me the upside with the irons. He finished 50^th and 7^th over his last two at The AT&T.

Russell Knox (7800) – Great course fit and great course history is about all I need to see in this range and Knox certainly has both. A recent 7^th place at the Sony and a 7^th place last year at the AT&T.

Matt Kuchar (7600) – He’s starting to play better golf and he’s a great course fit. Kuchar can get hot with the irons and hot with the putter and has made 3 cuts in a row here.

Chez Reavie (7400) – Leaning on course history and course fit yet again with this selection. Reavie has Top 25 finishes in 3 of his last 4 at The AT&T. His game right now is not in good shape, but I’ve found that when deciding between recent form and course form, it’s the course form that usually wins out. I’ll note that there are a number of guys to like in the low 7k range and we can discuss more on the PGA Livestream (link to show is in opening paragraph).

Mark Hubbard (6700) – The 6k range is pretty dicey and I’d recommend avoiding it, especially since the low 7k range is so rich with potential (Theegala, Merritt, Harkins, Schwartzel, Piercy, Stallings, Piercy, Buckley to name a few). With that said, I’m intrigued by Hubbard’s game as I do believe he’s a good course fit. A very risk play but rates out very with accuracy, APP, ARG and PUTT.

Secret Weapon – 47-15. See you in Discord.

Be sure to get in our Discord, watch our show and sign up for all things Win Daily as we are bringing you all the DFS for all the sports you can imagine. Further, make sure you check out Sharp as the bets continue to roll through.

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Initial Picks

Sia 3 years ago

written by Sia

Patrick Cantlay (11200) – He’s the best player in the field and his price is not prohibitive. I’m not locking him in by any means, but he’s the favorite for a reason.

Matt Kuchar (7600) – He’s starting to play better golf and he’s a great course fit. Kuchar can get hot with the irons and hot with the putter and has made 3 cuts in a row here.

Secret Weapon – 47-15. See you in Discord.

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/31

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Plenty of star-studded matchups on tonight’s NBA slate, but there is one game in particular that will go overlooked while being the crown jewel of the slate. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Toronto Raptors @ Atlanta Hawks (-2.5)

While there is plenty to love in the first game on the NBA slate between the Grizzlies and the 76ers, especially at the top of the pricing grid in Joel Embiid and Ja Morant, the Raptors/Hawks game will be a track meet that we need exposure to. Trae Young leads the charge for the Hawks, who are on a 7-game winning streak; the pass-first point guard comes into tonight’s matchup with a 35.9% usage rate on this run, while posting a 28.4/4.7/9.1 scoring line on 44% shooting, including 42% from behind the arc. Otherwise, the Hawks are getting healthy and have a eight players that will likely see close to, if not 20 minutes, in addition to both Lou Williams and Delon Wright as the 9th and 10th pieces in the rotation. Look for news on Bogdan Bogdanovic, who can sit out on the second half of a back-to-back.

On the Raptors side of the ball, there will always be interest for me when they are in elite game environments because of how condensed their rotation is. In a 3OT win against Miami the other day, all of Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, and Gary Trent Jr. played over 50 minutes apiece, with the 3-man bench rotation of Chris Boucher, Precious Achiuwa, and Dalano Banton saw a combined 35 mintutes. With Atlanta ranking 27th in the NBA in defensive rating, including 22nd in 3PM allowed per game, both VanVleet and Trent will be high on my priority list, with the former getting the most favorable matchup versus Trae Young, who has an individual net defensive rating of 116.3 while the Hawks as a whole rank 23rd in the league versus primary ball handlers.

Portland Trail Blazers @ OKC Thunder (+4)

The gem of all gems for me on tonight’s NBA slate, this game will not only fly under the radar, but it will be a primary source of fantasy points for us. The Trail Blazers have lost Nassir Little for the duration of the NBA season, meaning there will be ample opportunity for the main offensive catalysts to lead the charge; CJ McCollum, Norman Powell, Jusuf Nurkic, and Anfernee Simons will all be in my player pool tonight, whereby the guard duo of McCollum and Simons will be of extreme interest to me. Anfernee Simons has quietly filled the shoes of Damian Lillard with effectiveness, averaging 22.1 PPG on 45.5% shooting in his last seven games, where he sports a usage rate of 27.1%.

On the flip side of the ball, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out for the Thunder, Josh Giddey and Lu Dort will shoulder the bulk of the load on offense. Specifically, Giddey sees an increase in usage rate from 21.7% to 23.1% with SGA off the court, while also seeing his FPPM increase from 1.03 to 1.08 with a notable increase in assist rate. Dort will see the largest increase in shot attempts, while the duo of Mann and Jerome will see more minutes in the backcourt, while Darius Bazley offers exposure to an offense that faces a Portland defense that ranks 29th in the NBA in defensive rating, if you need to go there.

Honorable Mentions:

Memphis Grizzlies @ Philadelphia 76ers (-3.5)
GS Warriors bench @ Houston Rockets

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS Between the Benches for DraftKings and FanDuel (Jan. 30)

Allan Fabrykant 3 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

Welcome, everyone! We’re back with a brand new Sunday Night Win Daily NHL Article! Last Sunday’s article was really strong. So, let’s keep up the momentum and let’s get some takedowns tonight! Get ready for the newest edition of WinDaily’s Between the Benches! For tonight’s 1/30 NHL slate, we have a smaller four gamer and the slate begins at 7:00 pm ET. Don’t forget to lock your lines and check the discord for any updates! Let’s get right into it!

1/30 NHL Stack Report

Colorado Avalanche 1
Nichushkin – Rantanen – Landeskog (FanDuel: $25,100 | DraftKings: $18,900)
– Unsurprisingly, the Aves are the favourites of the slate. They are among the league’s top tier and are going up against a Sabres side who played last night and have notoriously had goalie troubles as of late. With MacKinnon sidelined with a concussion this line’s affordability makes them an almost must play. Landeskog has seen the lionshare of points as of late, however, Rantanen has seen more success throughout the season. All in all, we see a top team against one of the league’s bottom feeders with a 4.5 implied goal total (highest on the slate by far) along with some of the best offensive stats in the league for the home side (first in shooting percentage, first in goals). Not to mention, as a team, the Avalanche are on a nine game winning streak while Buffalo has three wins in their last 7 games. In cash games, prioritize Colorado’s top line, especially Nichushkin.
Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Cale Makar (FD: $7,500 | DK: $7,500)
Dallas Stars 1
Robertson – Hintz – Pavelski (FanDuel: $24,300 | DraftKings: $20,000)
– Despite an off game against the Caps last time out (they had a goal called back for offside early in the game), Dallas’ top line are still one of the best in the league this season and they will definitely prove to be a handful for Linus Ullmark and the Bruins tonight. The Stars are coming into tonight’s game with a respectable 3.0 implied goal total and I suspect that it is negatively influenced based off their last game, which was not indicative of their overall performances as of late. When these guys score they score in bunches, Hintz alone has had four multipoint games over his last five games, consistently meeting his value. His linemates Pavelski and Robertson are both scoring at over a point per game pace as well this season. (Pavelski 48 points in 41 games, Robertson 39 points in 33 games). Dallas also has an excellent record of 14-5-1 at home which compliments their four wins over their last five games. This is definitely not an easy matchup for the Stars tonight, but the production out of Dallas’ top line has been excellent and I would look to them as a nice higher end stack in tonight’s slate.
Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Miro Heiskanen (Ryan Suter works as a salary saver) (FD: $5,600 | DK: $4,800)

Honorable Mention(s): MIN1 (Zuccarello-Hartman-Kaprizov), CBJ1 (Laine-Jenner-Nyquist), BOS2 (Pastrnak-Haula-Hall)

1/30 NHL Goalie Tracker

Best (Goalies to Roster)

Darcy Kuemper (FD: $8,500 | DK: $8,300)
Jake Oettinger (FD: $7,700 | DK: $7,600)
Honorable Mention(s): Joonas Korpisalo

Worst (Goalies to Target)

Cayden Primeau (FD: $6,700 | DK: $7,500)
Honorable Mention(s): Dustin Tokasrski

1/30 NHL Wild Card Targets

Matthew Boldy (FD: $4,500 | DK: $3,000)
– Boldy hit the ground running since making his NHL debut earlier this month. The rookie winger is now seeing time on Minnesota’s top power-play unit alongside offensive juggernauts like Kaprizov and Zuccarello. Boldy has already registered two multipoint games in his young career and has put together seven points in just eight games. Boldy is steadily seeing more playing time as well, averaging around 17 to 18 minutes a game. He’s coming into tonight red hot with three points and eight shots over his last two games. Considering how low his price is, it’s hard to not lock in Boldy tonight. He works as a one off but also stacks well with his linemates on the third line (Gaudreau-Fiala) as well as his power play linemates (Zuccarello-Kaprizov-Spurgeon).
Honorable Mention(s): Alexander Beauvilier-Noah Dobson, Alex Tuch, Tyler Toffoli

Core Four: (ALWAYS BE STACKIN’)

Center – Mikko Rantanen (listed as a winger on FanDuel)

Winger – Matthew Boldy

Defenseman – Zach Werenski

Goalie – Jake Oettinger

1/30 NHL Monkey Knife Fight NHL Prop Picks – Win With These Picks Here and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Rantanen – Kaprizov – Robertson – Putting Up Points

Honorable Mention(s): BUF-COL Rapidfire 2/2

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3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/30

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/30

We’re back in action with just five games tonight and the NBA kept the main slate small since it is NFL Championship Sunday. There is only one team on a back-to-back tonight but we already have major value from one team in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/30 so let’s go to work!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Spurs at Suns

Spurs – San Antonio gives us the main value of the slate as the trio of Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, and Jakob Poeltl are all out. The good news is we know who is out but the bad news is this game is the last one on the slate and the starting lineup is far from set in stone. The names that we need to know and likely chase are Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, Lonnie Walker, and Drew Eubanks at least. Jones especially will be needed at point guard and he is the bare minimum on DraftKings so it will be hard to really kill the lineup at that salary. Walker (and Devin Vassell) are likely to be the main scoring options and they’ve been around the same minutes a lot lately with Vassell holding a slight edge. All of these players have at least 0.82 points per minute when the main trio is off the floor, so we’ll get a clearer view of the chalk and pivots later in the day.

Suns – We always preach to not calculate blowouts but this is a game where it might be an exception. Phoenix has the best record in the league and it’s hard to see how the Spurs keep it close but maybe the stars get enough work in. On DraftKings at least, I will not pay this salary for Devin Booker and the result of the last game is exactly why. He scored 29 raw points and didn’t hit 50 DK in part because Chris Paul went for a triple-double. With the expense of both guys, they will likely be GPP-only while Cam Johnson is going to be popular again if Jae Crowder remains out. Both Crowder and Deandre Ayton are questionable so we need news to see where the Phoenix exposure comes from.

Jazz at Timberwolves

Jazz – Utah is still short Rudy Gobert at a minimum while Donovan Mitchell is questionable with his concussion. Hassan Whiteside struggled with fouls last game and that kept his upside well in check. I don’t love him on this slate, but the upside is always there with 1.20 points per minute if he can manage to stick on the floor. He’s not going to be a primary target and if Mitchell plays, everyone else for Utah is just way too expensive.

Wolves – D’Angelo Russell is questionable again and when a player leaves one game early and then doesn’t play the next, I lean towards he’s out until he gets confirmed active. If that’s the case, Anthony Edwards is going to be an appealing option along with Karl-Anthony Towns. Both players have a usage rate of 27.7% and 1.27 FPPM and the Jazz defense is worse off without Gobert down low. If KAT could get Whiteside into foul trouble, he would have little resistance but he’s not always that style of player.

Studs To Target

With a player like Tre Jones being an option, we need to go back to the top of the pricing grid with one of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, or Luka Doncic. The latter is almost surely going to be without Kristaps Porzingis tonight as KP left very early last night and I can’t imagine the Mavericks pushing KP in a back-to-back against the Orlando Magic. Normally, this would be a time to point out that Luka doesn’t have a massive jump in his usage or FPPM but there is a key factor in Luka’s favor – the Mavericks are also missing Tim Hardaway Jr. Luka has a 40.9% usage and 1.66 FPPM over 284 minutes while Jalen Brunson is at 0.99 FPPM. They do need some scorers down KP and THJ so both men are firmly on the radar.

The decision would be a lot easier if both Giannis and Jokic weren’t facing off against each other. The status of Will Barton is a big deal here because if he’s off the court, the 1.89 FPPM for Jokic is the best on the slate. Of course, he is the most expensive but Jones unlocks it all. Milwaukee is sixth in points allowed in the paint but Jokic does so much more than that and he’s going to make Giannis work defensively tonight. On the offensive end, Giannis should have a clear path to the basket because he’s co-leading the league in FTA and Jokic can simply not afford foul trouble or this game is over fast. Denver is 10th in points in the paint but I think that number goes down tonight and Giannis is one of the few men who can battle on the glass with Jokic all night. As things stand, I side with Giannis out of the three but that could change tomorrow.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/29

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/29

We get six games tonight with multiple teams on back-to-back situations so that likely means we have some type of news during the day. We’ll be hoping for value plays because the stars are out tonight in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/29 so let’s get into it to find green screens!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Nets at Warriors

Nets – James Harden gets some help tonight since the Nets are on the road with Kyrie Irving being back in the lineup and that at least leaves Harden as less chalky than if this game was in Brooklyn. Given some of the other options we have on the slate, I doubt that Harden is the player I spend on but Kyrie and LaMarcus Aldridge are more appealing. With Kevin Durant off the floor so far this year, Kyrie has a 29.8% usage and 1.30 points per minute while LMA is at 27% and 1.13. The Warriors still have a strong defensive rating without Draymond Green at 107.4 (that would be sixth) but both teams are in the top 12 in pace. You have to make a call to go in with a star or LMA in my eyes because Steve Nash is not trustworthy with their rotations right now.

Warriors – Give me all the Klay Thompson here even though Steph Curry is back under $11,000. Klay has played 26 and 27 minutes the past two games and is openly talking about how he’s feeling like he’s back to himself. He looked it in the last game, scoring 23 points in 27 minutes while hitting five 3-point shots. It feels like 30 minutes for Klay is right around the corner and especially on DK where you get the 3-point bonus, he’s simply not expensive enough in a marquee game. As for Curry, I do like a couple of other studs better but he also could be coming out of his slump a little bit. He went 6-10 from deep last game and had a little swagger back in his game and it was just the fifth time in the past 13 games he scored more than 25 points. The Nets are just under 40% frequency allowed from 3-point distance and I’ll be interested to see what the model does with players like Otto Porter. These teams could run mostly small with the exception of LMA from Brooklyn.

Teams To Target

76ers – I’m not sure as we stand how many games I want to go in on as far as stacking but Philly is in one of the better spots of the night. Joel Embiid is going to annihilate the interior of Sacramento and they allow the 10th highest FG% against post-ups. Embiid is far and away the leader in that play type and Embiid is flirting with a 40% usage rate even if Seth Curry is played. His status holds the keys to if we’re interested in Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey as well.

Pelicans – We need news for Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas and if JoVal is out, Willy Hernangómez is going to be the chalkiest player on the slate. He was yesterday, paid off at almost 10x, and the salary didn’t move. Past that, we’ll update when we know who is active.

Grizzlies – Ja Morant is on another planet right now and he dropped a 30-point triple-double last night while the Washington Wizards have fallen to 21st in defensive rating. They are also 26th in points allowed in the paint and Morant is still leading the league in points from drives to the basket at 14.1 per game. Without Dillon Brooks and Kyle Anderson on the floor, Morant is up to a 33.8% usage rate and 1.52 points per minute, rivaling almost any player on the slate. Steven Adams could be considered as a cheap center even with shaky minutes given Washington’s terrible paint defense as well.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Championship Weekend

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Championship Weekend

Typically Championship Weekend for NFL is one of the best weekends in football but I’m not sure how the four teams left standing can beat last week. Three underdogs won and all four games were won on the last play of the game, with the Chiefs capping it off with a game for the ages. Let’s talk about the two games we have at hand on Sunday to carve the path to green screens in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Championship Weekend!

Bengals at Chiefs, O/U of 54.5 (Chiefs -7)

Bengals

QB – These games are going to be interesting because both are repeats of Week 17 and 18, with the Bengals and 49ers emerging with the win. Joe Burrow torched the Kansas City defense in that game with 446 yards and four touchdowns for a cool 37 DraftKings points. He’s played well in his first taste of the postseason and the only thing missing is touchdowns. He’s had a completion rate over 70% in both games, the 592 yards are strong, and he’s looked totally unfazed by anything happening around him. This game carries a total almost 10 points higher than the second game and that is notable. There is a clear tier of quarterbacks this week and Burrow is in the “second” tier in my eyes, simply because he doesn’t have the same rushing upside as Josh Allen did last week and nobody left in the field is in the tier of Mahomes. With the discount, Burrow is slightly easier to fit and he’s going to have all the chances in the world to throw for well over 300 yards and three touchdowns.

RB – The position as a whole this week is fairly gross and Joe Mixon pretty clearly leads the pack based on how the season has gone to this point. He was top five in carries and he has enough role in the passing game that he can be a weapon even if the Bengals wind up playing from behind (they are seven-point underdogs). He’s seen a total of 12 targets over the two playoff games so far and he’s touched the ball 41 times. Kansas City is weak against the run and has allowed over 80 yards per game so far. They were also 20th in DVOA against the run and allowed the fourth-most receptions to backs. It’s worth noting that when these teams played in Week 17, Mixon had seven receptions on eight targets and that was with the rest of the offense going nuts. I suspect some of the passing options from these games will be popular, leaving little room to pay for a back. That will be fascinating to watch unfold closer to lock.

WR – Ja’Marr Chase has yet to find the paint in the playoffs and still has scored at least 19.1 DraftKings points in each game, making him one of the best targets at the position this week. He nuked the Chiefs defense in Week 17 with over 56 DK points and even though we’re not going to get that again, he’s had 18 targets total and the salary has not been lower than it is this week. We need a lot of exposure to this game and the matchup with Charvarius Ward matters little with Chase. Ward did allow 1.43 points per target and only a 45.2 completion rate but also a 13.0 YPR, right in the wheelhouse for Chase and the downfield passing attack.

I’m very curious to see how the field reacts to the poor game from Stefon Diggs last week. If they transfer that outcome to Chase and make Tee Higgins more popular, I’ll love Chase even more although Higgins is a super strong play as well. Higgins was right with Chase as far as targets all season long and had nine again last week for 16.6 DK points. He also gets to see Rashad Fenton who allowed a 65.1% catch rate on the year, a big difference over Ward. If I’m plying Burrow this week, the odds are I will double stack him with both Chase and Higgins or possibly one of those two and the tight end, but we’ll get there. Tyler Boyd is the clear third wheel among receivers and he’s lagging behind the whole passing game, sitting fifth in targets through the playoffs. L’Jarius Sneed also played most of the slot snaps for KC and allowed 1.50 points per target so there’s room for Boyd to have a game if he actually was getting targeted.

TE – C.J. Uzomah is about as low as we can conceivably go for the position this week and I may well be doing just that. It’s not just the fact that he’s scored at least 14 DraftKings points in the past two games, he’s seen 14 total targets. He only averaged 3.9 targets per game in the regular season and there’s a possibility that KC will be missing Tyrann Mathieu in their defensive backfield on Sunday. Even if he plays, Uzomah has suddenly become a big part of the offense and Burrow has at least 34 attempts in each game, leaving room for him again. If I’m in love with everything else in the lineup, Uzomah isn’t the worst-case scenario.

D/ST – Cincinnati may have finished the year with 42 sacks on the regular season and tacked on another four in the playoffs with five turnovers but I can’t go against the Chiefs in Arrowhead with a defense. Ask Buffalo how that ended last week, and they were the number one defense in almost anything we could have asked for.

Targets – Burrow, Chase, Higgins, Uzomah, Mixon, Boyd

Chiefs

QB – Sometimes all you can do is shake your head and that’s about all we can say for Patrick Mahomes after last week. He threw for 378 yards, ran for 69, accounted for four total scores, and was just in total command of the offense. For a while this year, the Chiefs struggled a bit with two-deep shell defenses but Mahomes and company have grown more patient and let the talent take over. Seeing this Bengals defense within the past month isn’t going to end well in my eyes and the only reason you don’t play Mahomes is the salary involved. It’s nothing crazy but there’s not a ton of easy value plays this week.

RB – We saw Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire split time as expected but it wasn’t reported until Sunday that McKinnon was expected to be the lead. That’s exactly what happened as CEH touched the ball eight times to 15 for McKinnon although CEH did generate 69 scrimmage yards to 78 for McKinnon. The deciding factor is McKinnon is a touch cheaper and he was the clear receiving back, which matters a good deal in PPR settings. That was a major sore spot for the Bengals as well as they were fifth in receptions allowed to backs and if he’s going to get 8-12 carries as well, that’s going to make him a better play than CEH. I’m fully prepared to move this around if we get reports that CEH is going to lead this week, but McKinnon has made some explosive plays in both facets of the game even though he was shut down on the ground last week.

WR – Welcome back to the land of the fantasy living, Tyreek Hill. He went ballistic including a signature touchdown (should have been a flag but I digress) and we could well be in for a repeat this week. It’s basically the same thing as Mahomes that there is nothing wrong with playing Hill, but there are cheaper alternatives that have similar ceilings. What we really love for Hill is he plays close to 40% of his snaps from the slot and that leaves him on Mike Hilton for the Bengals. That is a significant mismatch (most corners are) in the favor of the Chiefs and Hilton allowed a 72.4% catch rate and ran a 4.6-second 40-yard dash back in 2016 for the combine. Godspeed, Mike Hilton.

Byron Pringle continued his streak of being useful for fantasy with a touchdown and he does draw Eli Apple in coverage, which isn’t the worst-case scenario. Pringle also has at least seven targets in four of the past five games and that gets your attention at just $4,300. Apple has allowed 13.3 yards per reception this season and 1.60 fantasy points per target so he’s viable as a stacking component or if you decide to not play Hill. Mecole Hardman scored last week but had just one target and two rushing attempts so that’s not something I want to take a chance on. Pringle has been seeing much more reliable volume.

TE – Based on what we saw in the regular season, this could be much of a better spot for Travis Kelce. Cincinnati got gouged by tight ends all year, sitting bottom-five in both receptions and yards and Kelce has at least five receptions, 96 yards, and a touchdown in both playoff games so far this year. Realistically, there is no reason to shy away here as he has the highest upside left of anyone with how each team is playing. He was held in check the first game around but I expect the Chiefs to have solved that puzzle this time and Kelce seems like a sure bet to approach 20 DraftKings Points.

D/ST – The Chiefs aren’t an easy sell here either, as they got smashed last week for a -2 DK score. They only have 35 sacks through 19 games but they have generated 30 turnovers, which helps a bit. The Cincinnati offensive line has struggled through portions of the year, as they did last week with nine sacks allowed. I will say they weren’t all the fault of the offensive line but regardless, I’d much rather pay $200 more for the Rams unit later on in the slate.

Targets – Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, McKinnon, Pringle, CEH

Prop to Bet – Joe Burrow Over 286.5 Passing Yards

Game Pick – Chiefs, 38-31

49ers at Rams, O/U of 46 (Rams -3.5)

49ers

QB – I certainly get it, nobody wants to play Jimmy Garoppolo this week. He’s barely over 10 DraftKings points in both playoff games combined so that’s pretty far from ideal. Jimmy G is looking for his first touchdown pass in the postseason and despite averaging 8.6 yards per attempt during the season (second-highest), he’s yet to even pass for 175 yards in a game. It can be worth exploring your options on short slates like this but it’s impossible to say that Garoppolo offers the same upside as the other three options. He averaged six fewer fantasy points than everyone else and is dealing with an injury so, at the minimum, you almost have to find a way to the quarterback on the other side of this game.

RB – It was a slow week for Eli Mitchell last week against the Packers in the cold but I’m not letting that worry me this week. He’s getting a boatload of touches when he’s healthy and the last four weeks it’s been 23, 21, 28, and 20 touches. He is a little bit touchdown-dependent because only six of those touches have been receptions, so the floor is a little lower than we would typically chase. However, only three backfields are based around one back with the Chiefs being the exception and Mixon is pricey compared to the rest of the position. These two teams just played each other in Week 18 and Michell handled over 20 touches with 85 yards rushing, but he didn’t accrue another stat so the DraftKings score was just 8.5. If he finds the end-zone, he has a very strong chance of paying off this week.

WR – I can’t spend on Deebo Samuel this week when he’s more expensive than Hill and Chase but has had fewer than seven targets in every game since Week 9 except for one. It’s great that he’s getting rushing attempts (35 in the past five games) but I’ll take double-digit targets at cheaper prices. Jalen Ramsey has faced him for eight targets this season and Deebo has 3/88/1 total so it’s not that I’m terrified of Ramsey himself. It’s much more the utilization of Deebo compared to the other receivers in his salary tier and his upside doesn’t exactly match, even if it’s not terribly far behind.

Brandon Aiyuk came up with a zero last week on just one target but I’m willing to mostly throw that game out for the elements. If Deebo continues to not be a volume receiver, someone has to get targets in a game where the 49ers are underdogs. Aiyuk’s lone 100-yard game this season came against this secondary and if you want a mid-tier receiver, Aiyuk is high on my list. He was 18th in yards per reception this season and managed to get over 800 yards this year despite being in the doghouse for a long time in the early going.

TE – George Kittle continues to just not do a whole lot so far in the playoffs (or the weeks leading up to it) and it’s confusing when you see how few targets a guy like Deebo is getting. The biggest fear is Kittle has to stay in and help block against that stout defensive line of the Rams but he’s also the only player at the position that can rival the upside of Kelce and he won’t be as popular. In the two games they’ve played, Kittle has a combined 14 targets at has scored a touchdown. It could make for an interesting double tight end build with Kelce or a fade possibly overall, but the floor has been scary.

D/ST – There’s a world where the San Francisco defense can have a good showing fantasy-wise and the Rams offense still plays well, so they are on the board under $3,000. They’ve totaled 10 sacks through two games which is double any team that is left. Both teams have allowed under 300 yards per game to the opposition and the total of this game is way lower. I’d be targeting defenses from this side, even if I don’t expect them to score over 20 DK points again.

Targets – Mitchell, Kittle, Aiyuk, Deebo, D/ST

Rams

QB – Matthew Stafford might still be laughing at any idea of not being able to perform in a big game. The DVOA for San Francisco was 16th in the league during the year but they also were bottom 10 in completion rate allowed and Stafford has played extremely well in the past two games. The first matchup between these teams saw the 49ers house the Rams but the second game was more competitive and Stafford threw three scores and 238 yards. I’d rather get to Burrow for the game environment but if Stafford is sitting third in popularity, it’s hard not to want to take some shots.

RB – He may have fumbled twice last week but this is now the Cam Akers show and Sony Michel is an afterthought. Akers handled 27 touches last week and sure, the results weren’t great against Tampa. Most running backs don’t have strong games against the Bucs front seven and San Francisco is a tougher spot as well. They were second in DVOA against the run and called the seventh-fewest rushing yards but we simply can’t turn a blind eye to this level of volume at $5,000 flat on DraftKings. Akers is a strong value play and he’s been a little bit involved in the passing game as well with three receptions last week despite the offense crawling into a shell for too long in the second half.

WR – The decision here and one of the biggest decisions on the slate revolves around Cooper Kupp because his upside is incredible and his floor might be the safest of any skill position player. However, he’s at least $1,800 more expensive than Hill and Chase so not only do you need him to pay off the salary but you need him to be a LOT better than those two to make things worth it. My lean is to not go here because the salary is just too steep but of course, Kupp is always in play.

Just like Aiyuk, Odell Beckham makes more sense to me as far as salary involved and getting exposure to something in the offense and he’s coming off seeing eight targets last week. Beckham has scored six times already as a Ram and now we have Van Jefferson listed as questionable and has been limited in practice. That would only help Beckham but it does not seem like a huge worry. Beckham could see Emmanuel Moseley who was excellent this year with 1.09 points per target and a 53.2% each rate but Beckham looks rejuvenated in LA and the salary works to get other star players.

TE – The 49ers have not exactly figured out how to keep Tyler Higbee out of the end zone this year as he’s scored three total touchdowns in the two games. That’s not a great reason to chase Higbee but he is very cheap and he’s seen at least five targets in every game since Robert Woods was lost for the season. He was a red-zone monster the entire way (top-five RZ targets among tight ends) for the Rams even though he’s only scored five total times this season. Higbee could make a stack with Stafford more contrarian if you went Stafford/Kupp or Stafford/OBJ.

D/ST – If I can get there, the Rams are the best overall defense on the slate because they face the clear weakest quarterback. It’s also not going to help San Francisco that tackle Trent Williams is going to play but might be less than 100% even though he dodged a broken bone in his ankle. LA has five sacks through their two games and harassed Tom Brady relentlessly last week, so the only reason stopping playing them is the salary and they’re likely to be the highest-rostered unit on the slate.

Targets – Akers, Stafford, OBJ, Kupp, Higbee, D/ST

Prop To Bet – Brandon Aiyuk Over 47.5 Receiving Yards

Game Pick – Rams 28-17

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Championship Weekend and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

3 years ago 0 comments

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DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Other Consideration – If you can find someone else that is in this field in the $10,000s, either play them or fade them because you have hacked the site.

$9,000 Range

Other Targets: I meantioned Seamus Power ($9,400) in the portion above. He is one of my favorite targets this week in all price ranges. Spieth/Seamus, Day/Seamus or Cantlay/Seamus would be a strong start.

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,700) is perfectly acceptable in cash and GPP builds. Ryan Palmer ($8,900) has also received a ton of influential money in the industry. I prefer him for GPP-only if I am going to use him, but sharp money is always worth noting.

$7,000 Range

Additional Thoughts: Vincent Whaley ($7,100), Scott Stallings ($7,100), Wyndham Clark ($7,000)

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: I would play down here sparringly. You can hear Sia Nejad, Joel Schreck and I rattle off some names on the ‘Live Show.’

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 2/2

Trail Blazers at Lakers

Nets at Kings

Thunder at Mavericks

Teams To Monitor

Washington Wizards

Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors

Golden State Warriors

Brooklyn Nets @ Phoenix Suns

Toronto Raptors @ Atlanta Hawks (-2.5)

Portland Trail Blazers @ OKC Thunder (+4)

1/30 NHL Monkey Knife Fight NHL Prop Picks – Win With These Picks Here and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/30

Spurs at Suns

Jazz at Timberwolves

Studs To Target

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/29

Nets at Warriors

Teams To Target

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Championship Weekend

Bengals at Chiefs, O/U of 54.5 (Chiefs -7)

Bengals

Chiefs

49ers at Rams, O/U of 46 (Rams -3.5)

49ers

Rams

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