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FanDuel

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/14

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

With the NFL season coming to an end, all eyes will be on the NBA before baseball season begins. Thus, we not only have a ton of contests at our disposal, but also some great games to go with it. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Sacramento Kings @ Brooklyn Nets (+4)

The new-look Kings travel to Brooklyn as road favorite in this one, and rightfully so. The Brooklyn Nets, fresh off having dealt one of their Big 3 in James Harden to the 76ers for Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, and Andre Drummond, will certainly be in tough in the absence of Kyrie Irving tonight. However, this does open up their offense quite a bit, especially when no player is above $5,700 on DraftKings. While Cam Thomas has been rolling as of late with 17 or more points in his last five, including four games of 20+ points, this offense belongs to Seth Curry tonight, who will certainly see an uptick in opportunity versus what he saw in Philadelphia alongside Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, and Tyrese Maxey. Expect to see an increase to his assist rate and shooting opportunities, while Andre Drummond is wildly underpriced – if Steve Nash decides to run a bigger lineup than what he is accustomed to, but know that both LaMarcus Aldridge and Nic Claxton are scheduled to be active tonight as well in a crowded frontcourt. While this offense is far from a guarantee to run as it should, there is no doubt that the Nets are one of the teams to attack on tonight’s NBA slate.

On the flip side of this one, the combination of De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis will do work against a weak Nets defensive unit. In two games since the blockbuster deal, which saw Tyrese Haliburton head to Indiana, Sabonis and Fox have usage rates of 23.5% and 28.9%, respectively, while the two have combined for 45.5 PPG. While the Sacramento bench is somewhat appealing if you decide to go elsewhere with your studs on this NBA slate, it got a lot deeper with the returns of Maurice Harkless and Donte DiVincenzo, in addition to rookie Davion Mitchell.

San Antonio Spurs @ Chicago Bulls (-5.5)

With Zach Lavine (knee) scheduled to miss the Bulls’ remaining games until the All-Star break, we’re going back to the well with the combination of DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic. While the latter is one of my favorite players to target in NBA DFS considering how underrated he is on a nightly basis, the former is just on an undeniable run right now: DeRozan now has 30 or more points in six straight games for Chicago, where he’s sported a 37.7% usage rate and has posted a ridiculous 37.2/6/5.5 scoring line on 56.8% shooting. Of course, know that you’re largely committing the success of your NBA lineups on one game if you follow this route, but it’s one that I am more than okay with, not only because of DeRozan, but because of who you can run it back with on the other side: Dejounte Murray. Since Derrick White was traded to the Celtics in a surprising move, Murray has posted back-to-back 30-point games, where he’s also triple-doubled once and has averaged 31.5/8.5/13.5 on 60% shooting, while taking 20 FGA per night through a 31.1% usage rate. Facing a Bulls defense that has been lackluster on the perimeter in the absence of Lonzo Ball (knee), his price tag is lofty on such a big NBA slate, but there is no denying the upside Murray carries every time he takes the court.

Honorable Mentions:

Toronto Raptors @ New Orleans Pelicans (+5)
Golden State Warriors @ LA Clippers (+6.5)

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/13

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/13

With the Super Bowl just a few hours away, the NBA did the smart thing and laid low with their schedule today. We only have two games before the main event of the evening the roundtable format is back for the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/13!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”

Ghost: There is no player above 10K on DraftKings tonight and truthfully, I don’t see a single scenario where I look to pair two or three of Trae Young, Karl-Anthony Towns, and/or Jayson Tatum together, defaulting me to a balanced lineup in the upper midrange.

Adam: With there not being a stud to spend on past Trae Young (and even then he’s only $9,800) as far as salary this afternoon, it should be a mostly balanced approach with no real need to jam in three star players that cost an arm and a leg.

Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”

Ghost: Unless Malcolm Brogdon (Achilles) makes his return to the Pacers lineup, Tyrese Haliburton will be a building block for me in the game environment to attack. He only had a 22.3% usage rate in his Pacers debut, but Haliburton looked as good as ever, taking the reins of what will soon be his franchise. His ability to score the ball and dish the rock to surrounding shooters like Buddy Hield and Chris Duarte makes him the most appealing player for me on this slate.

Adam: Lock is not the right word, but I am going to be overweight to the field on Jayson Tatum. The Hawks allow the sixth-most attempts in the isolation play type and Tatum attempts the fifth-most shots in iso plays. Now, he’s shooting under 38% this year but Tatum can cook like few others in the league. With Atlanta sitting in the bottom-five in defensive rating, that’s enough that we can possibly get him as the highest scorer on the slate.

Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”

Ghost: I’ve been saying this on nearly every slate that the Celtics are on, but they’ve quietly had the league’s best defense in the calendar year. With Marcus Smart still in the fold after the trade deadline, I’ll be underweight on Trae Young, where the majority of the field will do the opposite.

Adam: There is a very good opportunity to fade Young as Ghost says. I would be stunned if he’s not the most popular player on the slate with John Collins out for the Hawks, I will also likely be lower than the field on the Minnesota “Big Three” of Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell, and Karl-Anthony Towns if they all play because it’s near impossible to pick the right one on a given slate.

Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”

Ghost: Tyrese Haliburton and one of Danilo Gallinari or Onyeka Okongwu. I touched on Haliburton above, and the Hawks will be more of a value play for me tonight, not only because John Collins (foot) is out, but also because I still want exposure to their offense by fading Trae Young, even if it is in a limited fashion.

Adam: Tatum and Clint Capela. Technically, Capela is not a traditional value but at $5,100 on DraftKings that is a value. We talked recently on the live show that there’s going to be a game where he goes nuts and this could be the spot. Collins is out and Boston runs their center Robert Williams an average of 30 minutes and he pushed 38 in the most recent game for the Celtics. Capela is going to be needed on the floor to help combat him and Boston is just 18th in rebounds allowed in the paint.

Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”

Ghost: Haliburton, Duarte, and Hield combine for 60 raw points in a winning effort at home.
Adam: Tatum drops 35+ real points as the Celtics chug along to their eighth straight win.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS Between the Benches for DraftKings and FanDuel (Feb. 12)

Allan Fabrykant 3 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

We’re back with a rare edition of WinDaily’s Between the Benches! So hyped that I get to share my thoughts with you on this great slate! Let’s kick off Super Bowl Weekend with a bang! On tonight’s slate, we have a medium-sized 5-gamer! Keep an eye on any COVID-19 news since it can change the whole outlook of the slate! With that said, let’s get ready for the newest edition of WinDaily’s Between the Benches! For tonight’s 2/12 NHL slate, the slate begins at 7:00 pm ET. Don’t forget to lock your lines and check the discord for any updates! Let’s get into it!

2/12 NHL Stack Report

Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Marner – Matthews – Bunting (FanDuel: $24,700 | DraftKings: $20,100)
– This line has been excellent as of late with both Matthews and Marner scoring at will, with Bunting getting points on the side as a result. This line puts up the craziest stats that it would be hard to encapsulate in just one paragraph but the stat lines for all three of them have simply been insane. Bunting for example has five goals and an assist over his last five games along with 14 shots. Matthews has six goals and five assists over that same time (with a whopping 26 shots) and Marner slightly leads the pack with six goals and six assists over his last five games. (29 shots to boot) It’s safe to say that this line has been performing extremley well and find themselves in a very favourable position for tonight’s slate against a Canucks side who’s lost two of their last three and with one of the highest implied totals of the slate at 3.5. With the best power play in the league, and dangerous players on each side of their top line, it’s clear that the Leafs are the line I will prioritize in my builds tonight.
Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Morgan Rielly (FD: $6,600 | DK: $5,900)
St. Louis Blues 1
Kyrou – O’Reilly – Schenn (FanDuel: $19,300 | DraftKings: $15,800)
– The Blues are an interesting play as they provide a lot of value on a slate where value is as good as gold. Not only do they see top minutes a decent price, but they have been scoring really well as of late and are coming into tonight against an underperforming Blackhawks side. Last game alone, this line comined for two goals and an assist in their barn burner against the New Jersey Devils. If anything, that game cemented Husso’s spot as the Blues top netminder and it has seemed as though the Blues have just played better hockey in front of him this season. All three of the top line see power play time with Schenn and O’Reilly on the first unit and Kyrou on the second. It should come as no surprise that the Blues implied total is coming in around a similar spot as the Leafs at 3.5 as they are benefitting from a solid matchup tonight against a team who has dropped three of their last four games.
Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Torey Krug (FD: $5,400 | DK: $5,300)

Honorable Mentions in order: NSH1 (Forsberg-Granlund-Duchene), CGY1 (Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk)

2/12 NHL Goalie Tracker

Best (Goalies to Roster)

Ville Husso (FD: $7,900 | DK: $8,300)
Jacob Markstrom (FD: $8,100 | DK: $8,200)
Honorable Mention(s): Petr Mrazek

Worst (Goalies to Target)

Marc-Andre Fleury (FD: $7,000 | DK: $7,100)
Honorable Mention(s): Eric Comrie

2/12 NHL Wild Card Targets

Andrew Mangiapane (FD: $6,600 | DK: $3,300)
– To say Mangiapane has been great as of late would be an understatement. Over his past four games, he’s put together four goals and two assists along with 10 shots on goal and an average of 15-16 minutes of ice time. Mangiapane had cooled a bit from his strong start to the season, which dramatically dropped his price on DraftKings, but he’s now regained his scoring touch and comes into tonight as a strong value piece for a loaded Flames lineup (more so on DK). Mangiapane sees time on Calgary’s second power-play unit and works as a one-off play or in a mini-stack alongside fellow winger Blake Coleman.
Honorable Mention(s): Matt Boldy, Noah Dobson

Core Four: (ALWAYS BE STACKIN’)

Centre – Auston Matthews

Winger – Jordan Kyrou

Defence – Tony DeAngelo (Roman Josi if you have NSH exposure)

Goalie – Ville Husso

2/12 NHL Monkey Knife Fight NHL Prop Picks – Win With These Picks Here and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Honorable Mention(s): CGY/NYI 2/2 Rapidfire

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3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS: Super Bowl Game Breakdown

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NFL DFS: Super Bowl Game Breakdown

We’ve come to the final slate of the season and we can’t very well call it a game-by-game breakdown when there is only one, so this article will be set up more like a showdown article since that is the format we have to play. The Rams face the Bengals on Sunday and the builds will be challenging on DraftKings since the best player for fantasy is a crazy amount of money, but that’s what the NFL DFS: Super Bowl Game Breakdown is for!

Rams at Bengals, O/U of 48.5 (Rams -4)

Captain Picks

Cooper Kupp – It’s hard to mount an argument that says Kupp will not have the highest score on the slate, as he averaged 28.2 DK points during the season to this point and nobody is within 5.8 points of that. Kupp has been dominating and consistent, racking up over 2,300 receiving yards in his 20 games and securing 170 receptions. He’s playing around half the snaps in the slot and that is a significant mismatch against Mike Hilton and/or Eli Apple. They both allowed over a 103 passer rating and a catch rate over 69% to go along with 1.65 points per target. Kupp is up to 20 touchdowns on the season and has seen right about 11 targets on average per game. I would not be making a lineup without him on Sunday, be it in the captain spot or just a flex spot.

Tee Higgins – Since they are the underdog, we should expect the Bengals to have a pass-heavy day and Higgins is $4,200 cheaper than Ja’Marr Chase which is a massive saving. After a total whiff in the Wild Card round with just one reception, Higgins has bounced back with a total of 19 targets, 13 receptions, and 199 yards with no scores. He’s only fur targets behind Chase in the playoffs and has a higher air yards share, not to mention two red-zone and end zone targets. He should see less of Jalen Ramsey for the Rams and Ramsey may not be invincible (ask Mike Evans), that’s still a boost in the individual matchup. The only slight knock is the aDOT of 11.2 yards has been the highest of the receivers in the playoffs and the Bengals offensive line is going to likely struggle against the pass rush. The under the radar candidate is Tyler Boyd with a 4.2-yard aDOT but his target share has only been 13.6% so far. You’d be banking on work funneling toward him with likely no C.J. Uzomah in this game. Boyd would only be a captain pick in MME formats in my eyes.

Cam Akers – It hasn’t been the easiest ride for Akers getting back from his torn Achilles this postseason but he’s been getting the volume and that’s what we’re after with a running back this cheap. He’s racked up 13, 24, and 17 carries so far and the low mark came when he hurt his shoulder in the NFC title game. He was back practicing fully on Thursday and the Bengals have been very leaky on the ground this postseason. They’ve allowed 127.3 rush yards per game and in honesty, they may not be here if Kansas City had just stuck with running the ball in the AFC title game. Akers hasn’t cleared 55 rushing yards but the two-week break had to do him some good and under $10,000 is very interesting on DK. If Darrell Henderson does end up being active, the appeal for Akers lessens just a bit with Sony Michel lurking as well. I wouldn’t be interested in a committee if that’s where the Rams are going.

Kendall Blanton – It certainly seems like Tyler Higbee will miss the game so if we’re looking for a cheaper approach to the captain position, Blanton could be it. He stepped in for Higbee when the latter went down after just 14 snaps in the NFC title game. Blanton went 5/52 on five targets and during the regular season, not tight end had more red-zone targets than 20 for Higbee. If Blanton can get that level of work and just add a touchdown this week, you’re looking at over 20 DK from the captain spot for one of the cheapest players that is viable. This slate is difficult because neither team uses a lot of players in their offense. Things are concentrated on just a few players and they’re all expensive, so Blanton makes sense in any MME format. It also allows for a build with both quarterbacks, Kupp, and a Bengals receiver.

Flex Plays

Ja’Marr Chase – There’s nothing wrong with playing him and Ramsey doesn’t scare me off, but it’s tough to fit Kupp and Chase AND quarterbacks. It leaves for a much more narrow path and you would need multiple value picks to hit.

Quarterbacks – I can’t tell you to you shouldn’t play a quarterback but neither Matthew Stafford nor Joe Burrow has the best chance to be on top of the leaderboard as far as fantasy scores go. Both have negligible rushing upside and historical trends point toward running backs and receivers being the more optimal captain plays on DraftKings with the PPR format. You can squeeze both in with different builds but if you only play one, make sure it makes sense with the receivers you play. You’re fading a quarterback so you’ll need to make the most out of the stack you do play. Stafford will naturally be a little more popular with Kupp and he’s played a little better than Burrow so far.

Odell Beckham Jr. – He’s certainly not washed up and he’s just gotten better as the playoffs have gone, earning four, eight, and then 11 targets. If you do not play Kupp, OBJ is practically a requirement but I don’t know if I have the stomach for that. I’m more likely to play him in a build where I go Rams onslaught WITH Kupp and Stafford.

Joe Mixon – He’s one player I’m having a tougher time getting to just because of the salary and the Rams have shut down the opposing running game so far. They were fifth in DVOA against the run in the regular season and backed it up by allowing under 60 yards rushing per game in the playoffs. He’ll be involved in the passing game with 12 targets through the playoffs but I’m not sure that’s enough to make me pay the salary. I really love the passing games more than the run games for the most part.

Kickers-D/ST – I would be willing to play one of each in any one lineup, such as Evan McPherson or Matt Gay. The Bengals defense has been an underrated story in the playoffs with a total of eight sacks and seven turnovers forced while not allowing more than 24 points. The Rams have been strong as well with five turnovers forced and five sacks but they have the much better matchup against the Bengals offensive line that allowed the most sacks in football.

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS: Super Bowl Game Breakdown and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/12

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/12

We get 10 games tonight and one of the first aspects that jump out is the top end of the pricing grid is absolutely loaded. It’s going to be a tough call about which stud to choose from and hopefully, we get some strong value to snag two of them. We’ll see what comes along during the day in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/12 but we can start highlighting some spots we love now!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Grizzlies at Hornets

Grizzlies – If you don’t want to play Ja Morant against the Hornets, I’m not sure exactly what else to tell you at this point of the season. Yes, the choice of expensive players is plentiful tonight but Morant inherits one of the best spots possible and has 1.41 FPPM when Dillon Brooks is off the floor. Charlotte is 29th in points allowed in the paint this season and Morant is still leading the league in points off drives to the hoop at 14.7 points. For context, Deandre Ayton of the Suns (a strong play himself tonight) leads the league in points scored from paint touches at 12.8. Morant is scoring more than the highest-scoring big man in the paint, which will never cease to amaze me. These teams are top seven in pace this season and the total is already 234, so if you don’t go with Morant there are plenty of other options. I’m not terribly opposed to Jaren Jackson or Desmond Bane at their salaries but Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke are not expensive enough. Big men torment the Hornets and both big guys in this lineup can post massive scores in under 25 minutes. They are both over a point-per-minute player and we know that the Hornets don’t know how to defend any big guy (or anyone, really). Clarke is very interesting because he would be a little better suited if Memphis plays small with the Hornets.

Hornets – We saw a bit of an aberration last night when both LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier scored nearly 70 DK points each, but the Hornets also put up over 140 real points but they also shot a combined 19-32 and Rozier came out of nowhere for just his second triple-double ever. I would caution against thinking those outcomes are the norm and preach that if you want exposure to this game, it’s Ball and nobody else or you go with 1-2 other players (Rozier, Miles Bridges, Kelly Oubre) and hope Ball is underwhelming. Both P.J. Washington and Montrezl Harrell make sense at their salaries and both played at least 22 minutes last night. Washington held the edge at 29 minutes and until Gordon Hayward is back, there are minutes to go around.

Kings at Wizards

Kings – It’s still weird to write about Domantas Sabonis in the Kings section, but our man hopped on a plane, got to Sacramento, and dropped a casual 22/14/5 in 33 minutes for his Kings debut. Not only did he log 33 minutes but he had a 30.1% usage rate, wildly encouraging in his first game with De’Aaron Fox. In that game, Sabonis had 16 paint touches and scored 14 of his 22 points in the paint while Washington sits 25th in points allowed in the paint. It’s pretty nice to not have to try and figure out if it’s a Sabonis Game or Myles Turner game anymore and Sabonis is well worth an investment here. If we can’t swing two studs over $10,000, perhaps the path is one and a player like Sabonis to save a few hundred in salary. Fox himself is a strong play as well and the early returns saw them share the court for 28 minutes and Fox was at 1.21 FPPM with Sabonis at 1.52. Harrison Barnes is not a wrong option but at nearly $7,000, that might be a little too rich for my blood.

Wizards – It appears that the knee for Kristaps Porzingis got healthy quickly but I’m not terribly interested at this juncture and will likely be using the Wizards for value plays. Raul Neto is still way too cheap and the Wizards will be giving him a significant run at point guard with Bradley Beal and Spencer Dinwiddie not active for the rest of the year or simply not on the team. He played 30 minutes and Ish Smith is not likely to walk into a starting role over him, although I suppose they could surprise us. We’ll see what the model does with Thomas Bryant, Rui Hachimura, and Deni Avdija but the bottom line is a lot of Washington is still far too cheap even with the addition of KP, Smith, and Kyle Kuzma now being the highest-usage player. It also does not hurt they face the Kings, who are a top 10 team in pace and bottom 10 in defensive rating.

Lakers at Warriors

Lakers – The Lakers reportedly are reinvigorated now that they know their team moving forward (sure, the trade deadline was what’s wrong with this team) but the duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis remains very appealing. James is still under $11,000 and we know that he has the dramatic gene and will be up for a game against the Warriors on ABC. This isn’t a game against the Blazers and further, the Lakers better start stacking some wins. Davis can be a bit more flighty but man the matchup is good. With Draymond Green being out for the Warriors, they really should have a tough time defending him. Credit to Kevon Looney for his play lately but he shouldn’t be able to hold a candle to Davis. Those would be the only two Lakers I would be focused on.

Warriors – I’m not too enticed to play Steph Curry but that just means the man is going to go nuclear for 40+ real points because he has not been my friend this year. Anytime I’ve put my money on him, he takes a night off but this game should be fast with the Lakers sitting fourth in pace. I would never argue the upside but Morant against the Hornets is more appealing to me. Klay Thompson is certainly the easier way to get access to the Warriors side of the ball (and as the Lakers, there are only two players here for me) and his minutes are up to 30. His shot isn’t all the way back yet as he’s just shooting 37.4% from deep but his usage rate of 29.5% is super appealing and he’s going to have a game sooner or later where everything falls. The Lakers sitting at 17th in defensive rating could be that game where Klay goes for 30+ raw points for the first time this season and he will always be a great mid-range target in GPP.

Honorable Mention

Clippers vs. Mavericks (Luka especially)

Spurs vs. Pelicans

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS Friday Night Forecheck for DraftKings and FanDuel (Feb. 11)

allenjesse24@yahoo.com 3 years ago

written by allenjesse24@yahoo.com

Friday 2/11 NHL Breakdown

Welcome back for another installment of the Friday Night Forecheck here at Win Daily Sports. Tonight, we get a four game slate that starts at 8:30pm Eastern. This one looks a little ugly at first glance, but let’s see where we can go with it. Good luck!

Goalies

John Gibson – Anaheim Ducks: The Ducks host the Kraken tonight, in what should be a win for them. The Kraken have been struggling to score on the road, converting just 6.2% of their shots over their last five road games. Gibson is a solid goaltender, especially on home ice, and he should be a top point per dollar play tonight.

Brian Elliott – Tampa Bay Lightning: The Lightning are on a traveling back to back, and Vasilevskiy played last night, so the assumption is that Elliott will likely get the start tonight. Should Vasilevskiy get the start again tonight, he is an even better play. Elliott does carry some risk, since he doesn’t play all that much, but it’s the Coyotes, who have played a good bit recently, so this is feels like a safe play.

Bonus GPP Goalie Pick – Stuart Skinner – Edmonton Oilers: The Oilers….wow. What happened to this team? They were absolutely dominating in the first part of the season. Fast forward to February, and they fired their head coach. What a free-fall they have been on. We have to be careful with the Oilers tonight because new coach = most likely new approach, new lines, and new matching schemes, and even growing pains as the team adapts. Anyway, Skinner has been a bit up and down, but arguably the better goalie for the Oilers, especially recently. In a home matchup, against the visiting Islanders, this should be a decent play that carries some risk and upside. On the other side of this game, Ilya Sorokin (Islanders) can also be considered for a risky GPP upside play.

Lines to Build Around

These lines are considered top plays for the night and can be considered the focal point of your builds. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).

Tampa Bay Lightning Power Play – Brayden Point/Alex Killorn/Steven Stamkos/Nikita Kucherov/Victor Hedman: The Lightning are far and away the best play on the board tonight. Even though they played last night, they are a far superior team to the Coyotes. On top of that, the Coyotes have played quite a bit over the last few days, so the Lightning should be able to skate through them all night long. Tired or not, the Coyotes don’t pose much of a defensive threat, and their 31st ranked penalty kill should be no match for this unit.

Dallas Stars 1 – Roope Hintz/Jason Robertson/Joe Pavelski/John Klingberg: The Stars host the Jets tonight, and Dallas is a much better team on home ice. Hellebuyck has been struggling of late, posting a 3.06 GAA over his last five games, which is second highest on the slate behind Vejmelka for Arizona. This line is the primary scoring line for the Stars and should be able to shine at home tonight.

High Risk Lines

These are plays that carry significantly more risk, but could pay off at low ownership. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).

Anaheim Ducks Power Play – Ryan Gezlaf/Trevor Zegras/Rickard Rakell/Maxime Comtois/Jamie Drysdale: The Ducks’ 7th ranked power play unit will take on the Kraken’s 25th ranked penalty killing unit tonight. Since the Kraken are fairly disciplined, this play is not so much about the power play matchup as it is about getting access to the top two lines for the Ducks. Anaheim tends to match the Lundestrom line to the opposing top line, which will open up the matchups for the top two lines against the depth of the Kraken. Playing the power play unit gets you a mix of top and second line guys who are all in good spots. This game feels like it hits the under, which is why they are high risk, but the Ducks carry some nice upside tonight.

Winnipeg Jets 2 – Andrew Copp/Kyle Connor/Cole Perfetti: This second line for the Jets has a nice matchup tonight against the second/third line for the Stars. It feels like this game is going to be the key to the slate, so getting either Winnipeg and/or Dallas right could be the path to success. Josh Morrissey is a good defenseman to correlate with this line.

Edmonton Oilers 2 – Leon Draisaitl/Ryan McLeod/Zack Kassian: As mentioned above, the Oilers are going through a lot of changes, which is why this line is a high risk line tonight. They used to loosely match this line against the opposing second, but we don’t know if that will continue. If they do, this is a good spot for the Draisaitl line, who has been much better of late than the McDavid line.

Honorable Mentions: SEA1, TBL3, WPG1, NYI1, EDM1

Value Options – DraftKings

Center: Anthony Cirelli ($4000) – Tampa Bay Lightning

Wing: Cole Perfetti ($3000) – Winnipeg Jets

Defense: Ryan McDonagh ($3300) – Tampa Bay Lightning

Value Options – FanDuel

Center: Cole Perfetti ($3900) – Winnipeg Jets

Wing: Kailer Yamamoto ($3700) – Edmonton Oilers

Defense: Jamie Drysdale ($4000) – Anaheim Ducks

Cash Considerations – DraftKings

Center: Roope Hintz – Dallas Stars

Wing: Nikita Kucherov – Tampa Bay Lightning

Defense: Evan Bouchard – Edmonton Oilers

Goalie: Brian Elliott – Tampa Bay Lightning

Cash Considerations – FanDuel

Center: Roope Hintz – Dallas Stars

Wing: Nikita Kucherov – Tampa Bay Lightning

Defense: Evan Bouchard – Edmonton Oilers

Goalie: Brian Elliott – Tampa Bay Lightning

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Jon and the NHL team will be there answering questions right up until lock! Be sure to be on the look out for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/

All line combinations are courtesy of www.dailyfaceoff.com, and the advanced rates referenced in the above article are pulled from www.naturalstattrick.com.

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/11

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

After the madness that was the NBA Trade Deadline yesterday, we’re looking at some rotations with fresh looks while others await to make their debuts with their new teams. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

San Antonio Spurs @ Atlanta Hawks (-8)

With the Spurs surprisingly traded Derrick White at the deadline, if you weren’t all in on Dejounte Murray beforehand, you will be now. In his sixth season as a pro, Murray has been taking the NBA by storm, sporting a 26.6% usage rate on the year and having posted a 19.5/8.4/9.2 scoring line on 45.3% shooting. I constantly preach to play primary ball handlers versus the Atlanta Hawks, and most notably, against Trae Young, who has an abysmal 116.7 net defensive rating. Not only do the Hawks rank 27th in the NBA in defensive rating as a team, but they also give up the second-most assists per game to opposing primary ball handlers.

On the flip side of this game, you can double down with two of the NBA’s best point guards by playing Trae Young, but I’ll never attack Murrray’s elite defense. Thus, if you want to get a piece of the Hawks offense, look to the wings in De’Andre Hunter and/or Kevin Huerter, while John Collins, who is my preferred target in Young’s pick-and-roll offense, makes for an elite play: Collins leads the NBA as the roll man with 1.47 points per possession (PPP) while the Spurs rank 24th in pick-and-roll defense to opposing roll men, allowing 1.16 PPP.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Chicago Bulls (-4.5)

This contest is far and away the best game environment in my model and I will have at least one, if not multiple pieces from it. The Timberwolves have a whopping six rotation players tagged as questionable for this one, including Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell, meaning we’ll monitor it throughout the day before making our decision. Should one of the two be out, Karl-Anthony Towns catapults in the priority list for tonight’s NBA slate, while a potential absence of someone like Patrick Beverley (ankle) could get us more value off the bench.

I will have at least one of the Bulls’ Big 3 in my NBA lineups tonight, but we also need confirmation on the status of Ayo Dosunmu (concussion) before deciding, since he was acting as the primary ball handler in the absence of Lonzo Ball, and this offense shifts considerably with him off the court and Coby White on it. Ultimately, should Dosunmu be ruled out, I’d consider both Zach Lavine and DeMar DeRozan, but the latter grades out ridiculously well for me tonight, and there’s no surprise to why: DeRozan comes into tonight’s contest with 30+ points in his last four games, sporting an absurd 40.1% usage rate while averaging 37.5/6/5.5. With the Timberwolves ranking in the bottom 10 in points per game allowed, rebounds per game allowed, and assists per game allowed to combo wings, DeRozan is my guy tonight.

Honorable Mentions:

Charlotte Hornets (high rostered for cash games)
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers (+7)

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL Premium

FanDuel Super Bowl Showdown: Bengals vs. Rams

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season concludes with the showdown slates for the Super Bowl, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in the big game!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021. This article will focus on the FanDuel contests, rules and pricing.

Let’s get to the game!

Super Bowl NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences on the MVP slot on FanDuel: FD doesn’t assess a salary penalty but still bumps the points scored to 1.5x – a crucial factor in who we choose since the chalkiest player is that much more chalky on FD.

Super Bowl Showdown NFL DFS Chalk: Cooper Kupp (FD $16,000)

Pivot #1: Joe Burrow (FD $15,000)

Pivot #2: Matthew Stafford (FD $15,500)

Pivot #3: Ja’Maar Chase (FD $12,000)

Contrarian #1: Odell Beckham, Jr. (FD $10,500)

Contrarian #2: Tee Higgins (FD $10,500)

Contrarian #3: Joe Mixon (FD $12,500)

FanDuel Value Play: Kendall Blanton (FD $8,000)

So, in writing a FanDuel-specific column, I certainly want many of the same guys, but we have to take some chances at the top slot, because there’s no penalty. As I said on the DK article, Cooper Kupp is once again the chalk. The NFL’s top scoring fantasy WR is drawing heavy ownership on FD as well, thought Matt Stafford is on his heels a lot more with these rules. I like Stafford, but Joe Burrow and the Bengals are who I’ll lean to more. I REALLY like going with Ja’Marr Chase as the top guy on FD in at least half of my large-field GPP entries.

As I said, one of the main reasons Burrow has had so much success is the play of rookie WR Chase — Burrow’s teammate at LSU and a certified surprise given his depleted draft stick last April and the struggles he faced during training camp and the preseason. Chase doesn’t need much of a window to find the sunlight of the end zone, and if there’s one QB-WR stack we should focus on building around, it’s this one.

Bengals notes: After Burrow and Chase, the options are still plentiful, with the sure-handed and statuesque Tee Higgins offering immense upside in both the red zone and between the 20s, veteran WR Tyler Boyd operating skillfully in the slot as a target-rich value play, and Joe Mixon — who’s useful on just about any down and distance as well and effective in the red zone as a bruising but nimble runner and pass-catcher. As was the case on DK, I’ll be crafting some lineups that include kicker Evan McPherson and C.J. Uzomah (questionable with a knee injury) if the TE can suit up and play on Sunday.

Rams notes: RB Cam Akers is a much better value play on DK, so I’m not as interested on FD. Tyler Higbee and Kendall Blanton are the same price on FD, so there’s a direct swap out if Higbee doesn’t suit up or is limited. I’d much rather play Higgins over Odell Beckham Jr. in single-entry GPPs and cash games, but OBJ needs to be considered for large-field GPPs as a leverage play. He’s not as risky as Boyd (my favorite leverage play on DK), and more expensive, but I could see him winning somebody a lot of money as the MVP. We know just how good he can be, and if coverage is overly focused on Kupp, he can hurt this Bengals defense with volume, red zone dominance and the TDs it takes to win on FD.

FD Strategy Notes: The strategy on FD is pretty simple. If you’re looking for leverage on the field, go with Chase or OBJ at MVP and play Burrow with Kupp and some Rams value. For cash games I want to squeeze a QB in the top slot and make sure I have Kupp and one of either Chase or Higgins in there as well.

Super Bowl Showdown: NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

Now that we’ve established some NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates for the big game, the best way (as always) to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Joe Burrow
Matthew Stafford
Cooper Kupp
Ja’Marr Chase
Odell Beckham, Jr.
Joe Mixon
Tee Higgins
Tyler Boyd
Tyler Higbee (questionable)
Kendall Blanton (direct swap for Higbee if he sits)
Evan McPherson
Cam Akers (questionable)
Matt Gay
C.J. Uzomah (questionable)
Darrell Henderson (questionable)
Sony Michel (higher if Akers or Henderson sits)
Van Jefferson (questionable)
Samaje Perine
Drew Sample
Ben Skowronek
Trent Taylor
Chris Evans
Mike Thomas

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for the Super Bowl action!

3 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS Hot Shot for DraftKings and FanDuel (Feb. 10)

Richard Masana 3 years ago

written by Richard Masana

This article focuses on 2/10 NHL Picks for both DraftKings Sportsbook and DraftKings Daily Fantasy. We analyze tournament tactics, statistics, pricing, and attempt to tackle this highly variable Daily Fantasy format so that we can gain an edge on the field at large. Full rankings for each position for both sites are available below.

Thursday 2/10 NHL Slate and DFS Gameplan

Welcome back to the Hot Shot for a seven-game Thursday slate!

Full Game Odds/Totals and DraftKings Rankings can be found below as well as cash game considerations for each site.

Three Favorite Lines Per Dollar

Columbus One “Patrik Laine, Gustav Nyquist, Boone Jenner”, Buffalo One “Alex Tuch, Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson”

The first very thing that jumped out at me on this slate when digging through pricing was how ridiculously cheap skaters from this game are. I get it, these are two bad teams. However, this should be a high-scoring game as the 6.5 total indicates. Furthermore, Patrik Laine is only $4,500 despite coming off three straight two-goal games. Perhaps DraftKings decided that they’ll only raise his price if he bags a hat trick. On the flip side, Alex Tuch stands out to me as a particularly great value individually and he has been on fire as well. If looking to use a full line and only pick one, I would side with Columbus’ top unit with six full lines goals off of 57 SATF across their last ten games, placing them just outside the NHL’s top ten lines.

Washington One Two Man “Evgeny Kuznetsov, Conor Sheary”

Alex Ovechkin has been ruled out for this game as of the time of writing. Nevertheless, no matter who joins these two skaters on the top line, we can count on them having some opportunities. The Capitals will be -210 favorites on the money line tonight in a 6.5 total game against a flailing Montreal team that is really struggling and missing their starting goalies in particular. There is not much of sample size on these two but consider it more a combination of price and matchup putting them in play.

St. Louis Two “Vladimir Tarasenko, Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou”

Despite a few mismatches on paper earlier on in the slate, the Blues are the heaviest favorite at -275 against a Devils team that has been going through hell, so to speak. Of the options, I prefer the second line featuring Vladimir Tarasenko and Jordan Kyrou but the way the St. Louis lines are dispersed, you can really opt for any one of the three, depending on your budget. This line with Saad as opposed to Tarasenko has five full lines goals over their last ten games, the by-product of 48 SATF and an unlucky .968 save performance against, so due for positive regression.

2/10 NHL Game Odds and Totals

Main Slate of Games – Beginning 7 p.m. ET

Columbus Blue Jackets (-110) at Buffalo Sabres (-110) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Washington Capitals (-210) at Montreal Canadiens (+170) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Pittsburgh Penguins (-210) at Ottawa Senators (+170) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Carolina Hurricanes (+100) at Boston Bruins (-120) – 6 Projected Goal Total

Toronto Maple Leafs (-120) at Calgary Flames (+100) – 6 Projected Goal Total

New Jersey Devils (+220) at St. Louis Blues (-275) – 6 Projected Goal Total

Tampa Bay Lightning (+100) at Colorado Avalanche (-120) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

2/10 NHL DraftKings Individual Rankings

Centers

Auston Matthews – Toronto – $9,700
Sidney Crosby – Pittsburgh – $7,000
Brayden Point – Tampa Bay – $6,200
Jeff Carter – Pittsburgh – $4,400
Evgeny Kuznetsov – Washington – $6,500

Wingers

Patrik Laine – Columbus – $4,500
Alex Tuch – Buffalo – $5,100
Bryan Rust – Pittsburgh – $7,100
Steven Stamkos – Tampa Bay – $6,500
Gustav Nyquist – Columbus – $3,300

Defense

Rasmus Dahlin – Buffalo – $4,700
Dmitry Orlov – Washington – $3,500
Mike Matheson – Pittsburgh – $3,300
John Carlson – Washington – $6,500
Thomas Chabot – Ottawa – $5,900

Goalies

Ville Husso – St. Louis – $8,300
Ilya Samsonov – Washington – $8,100

Cash Considerations

Patrik Laine, Alex Tuch, Rasmus Dahlin, Auston Matthews, Ville Husso

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Rich will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Rich on Twitter @JFan303 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/

3 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS Between the Benches for DraftKings and FanDuel (Feb. 9)

Allan Fabrykant 3 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

We’re back with another Wednesday Night Win Daily NHL Article! We’ve been on an excellent run as of late here at WinDaily. Let’s make some more money tonight! On tonight’s slate, we have a medium-sized 6-gamer! Keep an eye on any COVID-19 news since it can change the whole outlook of the slate! With that said, let’s get ready for the newest edition of WinDaily’s Between the Benches! For tonight’s 2/9 NHL slate, the slate begins at 7:00 pm ET. Don’t forget to lock your lines and check the discord for any updates! Let’s get into it!

2/9 NHL Stack Report

Seattle Kraken 1
Eberle – McCann – Johansson (FanDuel: $15,900 | DraftKings: $15,300)
– I never thought we’d see the day this season but here we are. Seattle is our top team of the slate. It has less to do with how well they’ve been playing (even though their top line has been quite good) but it’s more so about how bad their opponents are. Other than Montreal, it’s hard to find a team who has been playing worse than the Arizona Coyotes, and on top of that they’re on the second half of a back to back, where they got shelled en route to a 5-1 loss to the Vancouver Canucks. Every player on the Kraken’s top line sees good minutes and is reasonably affordable and on top of that they have all be playing great hockey as of late as they come into tonight with the best odds and the second highest implied total.
Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Mark Giordano (FD: $5,600 | DK: $6,100)
Calgary Flames 1
Tkachuk – Lindholm – Gaudreau (FanDuel: $24,000 | DraftKings: $22,800)
– It should come as no surprise that we’re going with the Flames here tonight. Each member of their top line has consistently been meeting their standard game in and game out. Johnny Gaudreau for example has 10 points over his last 6 games and has had four 3+ point games since the start of the new year. Calgary’s top line has been scoring at an extremely high rate and tonight, they’ll be up against a tired Vegas team who is coming into Calgary after a win late last night in Edmonton. With Calgary coming into tonight with the fresher lineup accompanied by a 3.3 implied goal total. I would recommend having some exposure to Calgary’s top line tonight.
Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Rasmus Andersson (FD: $5,300 | DK: $5,200)

Honorable Mentions in order: EDM1 (Kane-McDavid-Yamamoto), DET2 (Bertuzzi-Suter-Fabbri), DAL1 (Pavelski-Hintz-Robertson)

2/9 NHL Goalie Tracker

Best (Goalies to Roster)

Jacob Markstrom (FD: $7,900 | DK: $7,900)
Phillip Grubauer (FD: $8,200 | DK: $8,200)
Honorable Mention(s): Ilya Sorokin, Jake Oettinger, (DEEP GPP – Robin Lehner)

Worst (Goalies to Target)

Scott Wedgewood (FD: $6,700 | DK: $7,200)
Honorable Mention(s): Alex Nedeljkovic

2/9 NHL Wild Card Targets

Blake Coleman (FD: $5,100 | DK: $4,100)
– We already know why we’re so high on Calgary as a team tonight, but even though I recommend prioritizing the top line, it’s worth noting how good Blake Coleman has been as of late. He’s been an absolute stud and he popped off in his last game for two goals and one assist. He’s still modestly priced on both sites after a performance like that. So, if you’re interested in having some exposure to Calgary but cant fit in their top line guys, I’d highly recommend going with Blake Coleman as either a one off play or alongside defenseman Oliver Kylington.
Honorable Mention(s): Robbie Fabbri, Calle Jarnkrok, Derick Brassard, Anthony Beauvilier-Noah Dobson

Core Four: (ALWAYS BE STACKIN’)

Centre – Jared McCann

Winger – Johnny Gaudreau

Defence – Mark Giordano

Goalie – Jacob Markstrom

2/9 NHL Monkey Knife Fight NHL Prop Picks – Win With These Picks Here and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Honorable Mention(s): Rapidfire 2/2

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3 years ago 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts

FanDuel

Sacramento Kings @ Brooklyn Nets (+4)

San Antonio Spurs @ Chicago Bulls (-5.5)

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/13

2/12 NHL Monkey Knife Fight NHL Prop Picks – Win With These Picks Here and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

NFL DFS: Super Bowl Game Breakdown

Rams at Bengals, O/U of 48.5 (Rams -4)

Captain Picks

Flex Plays

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/12

Grizzlies at Hornets

Kings at Wizards

Lakers at Warriors

Friday 2/11 NHL Breakdown

Goalies

Lines to Build Around

High Risk Lines

Value Options – DraftKings

Value Options – FanDuel

Cash Considerations – DraftKings

Cash Considerations – FanDuel

San Antonio Spurs @ Atlanta Hawks (-8)

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Chicago Bulls (-4.5)

Super Bowl NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Super Bowl Showdown NFL DFS Chalk: Cooper Kupp (FD $16,000)

Pivot #1: Joe Burrow (FD $15,000)

Pivot #2: Matthew Stafford (FD $15,500)

Pivot #3: Ja’Maar Chase (FD $12,000)

Contrarian #1: Odell Beckham, Jr. (FD $10,500)

Contrarian #2: Tee Higgins (FD $10,500)

Contrarian #3: Joe Mixon (FD $12,500)

FanDuel Value Play: Kendall Blanton (FD $8,000)

Super Bowl Showdown: NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Thursday 2/10 NHL Slate and DFS Gameplan

Three Favorite Lines Per Dollar

Washington One Two Man “Evgeny Kuznetsov, Conor Sheary”

St. Louis Two “Vladimir Tarasenko, Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou”

2/10 NHL Game Odds and Totals

Main Slate of Games – Beginning 7 p.m. ET

2/10 NHL DraftKings Individual Rankings

Centers

Wingers

Defense

Goalies

Cash Considerations

2/9 NHL Monkey Knife Fight NHL Prop Picks – Win With These Picks Here and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

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