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NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/27

We have another five games tonight and these kinds of slates tend to be a favorite because it is much harder to get overwhelmed with options. It’s easier to be focused and not feel like you’re missing anyone but there are some very strong game environments again tonight. We’ve got plenty of studs to pick from in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/27 so let’s get right to work to find out paths! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Clippers at Rockets 

Clippers – If the last Rockets game was any indication, the Clips will very likely be chalky and I’m more than willing to run with the field on that for most guys. These teams played each other right before the break and Reggie Jackson feels expensive to me, but he does lead the team with a 29.9% usage rate without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. He’s absolutely in play but it could be more cash and possibly risk fading him in GPP. My main two players would be Terrance Mann and Luke Kennard. Mann is in my sights since he can do a little bit of everything as far as scoring, assists, and rebounds and he could even sneak in a double-double like last game. As of Kennard, the salary is getting toward the upper limit but the Rockets are 10th in frequency allowed from deep and Kennard is now over 45% from beyond the arc this year. Both Marcus Morris and Ivica Zubac are on the fringes as well as Zubac should be needed to deal with the size of Christian Wood and Alperen Sengun. 

Rockets – The interest in the Rockets are going to be dictated by the status of Kevin Porter Jr. as he is questionable for tonight’s game. If he’s out, that gives a nice bump to Jalen Green and Dennis Schroeder who will share a lot of the work in the backcourt. In addition, Wood sees a usage rate bump of 2% and he climbs up to 26.1% so he would be in play as well. Wood is someone I struggle with when he’s over $8,000 since this is a player that doesn’t even average 38 DK points but he does have a ceiling, so perhaps this is a GPP-only play. If Porter is active, he and Green would be my favorites as they can pick on the Clippers perimeter defense a little bit. Both teams are in the top half of the league as far as pace and we all know what the Rockets bring to the table for the game environment. 

Pistons at Hornets 

Pistons – Typically the Pistons aren’t much of a thought but that changes pretty quickly when they face the Hornets. Charlotte is basically a carbon copy in defensive rating and pace as the Rockets are and they tend to pull big games out of their opponents. Cade Cunningham is very affordable for his ceiling although he’s a very volatile player. The true shooting for the season is just 48.8% but his usage is 27%, exactly what we’re looking for against the Hornets. His assist rate also leads the team at 27.2% so there is upside all around but I would be hesitant to play him in cash games on DK. Isaiah Stewart is very cheap and it should be noted he scored 36 DK against these Hornets earlier in the month, although that’s not the main reason you play him. Stewart is 14th in paint touches this season and Charlotte is still 29th in points and rebounds allowed in the paint on the year. I’m going to be tempted by Jerami Grant but he’s under 1.00 FPPM at this juncture of the season. 

Hornets – You might think that this is a clash of sales but Detroit is 12th in pace, which could lead to a major up-and-down game here. The good news is both teams are in the bottom eight in defensive rating as well so there is plenty to like from the Charlotte side. Montrezl Harrell is the new hotness as it were and his salary is getting up there but he can touch 40 DK in a hurry. Detroit is only 10th in points allowed in the paint but they are 21st in rebounds and Trez leads the league in points scored from putbacks. If Trez is too rich, Mason Plumlee could be a cheaper substitute but has his own risks as well. Finally, LaMelo Ball has one of the highest ceilings on the slate but he also is one of the harder players to pin down on any given night. His minutes have been more secure since the Hornets traded Ish Smith so that does help and he’s driving to the hoop 14.2 times per game. 

Honorable Mention – Pelicans at Lakers

Teams To Monitor 

Nuggets – It’s a back-to-back for Nikola Jokić but he sees virtually no change in his stats in his eight games on zero days rest. There is nobody on the interior for the Trail Blazers that should give Jokic any kind of resistance. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/26

There may only be six games tonight for the NBA slate but man they are some good ones on paper. We do have four teams on back-to-back situations but that’s not a major concern past possibly San Antonio coming off a double-overtime game. Let’s dig into that spot and much more in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/26 and start carving out our paths to green again tonight! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Raptors at Hawks 

Raptors – Toronto may have gotten their doors blown off last night but we have short memories and these guys are going to be fresh. The only player that came through for us was Scottie Barnes and I’m going right back to him as his salary fell by $200. The Hawks are in the bottom five in defensive rating and the main guys in the rotation play near 40 minutes per game when it is actually competitive. With OG Anunoby out for the next little while, Barnes has more secure minutes than ever. 

It’s not the same style of matchup but Pascal Siakam also can’t play any worse than yesterday and no John Collins is going to help as well. I’m not likely to spend up here on Siakam as Fred VanVleet would be my preferred player. FVV still is right around the lead behind Siakam for usage (24.5%) and FPPM (1.11) and with the matchup on the perimeter against Trae Young, I would take the savings over Siakam. 

Hawks – Ghost says it a lot that we want shooters against the zone from the Raptors defense and hello Young and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Young came out of the break and shot 3-17 last game and managed to score 32 DK even with just 14 real points. His price isn’t going to get a lot lower than $9,500 and Toronto is in the bottom 10 in points allowed in the paint. Young can get to the rim and he’s scoring 9.8 points per game in the paint and shooting 37.9% from distance. This is a game that Young can go 35/10 pretty easily. 

I’m also going right back to Bog Bog because he’s still not pricey enough. He finally seems to have found his groove and he’s scored at least 31 DK in five straight while taking at least 14 shots in three of the five. With Collins out, he needs to be more active in the offense and he took 12 3-pointers in the last game. That’s not likely to happen again but the Raptors are in the bottom 12 in 3-point frequency allowed and FG% allowed. He can shoot and I want one of these two tonight, depending on the build. I’m a little shaky on Clint Capela because once again he was under 30 minutes (29 is still under 30) and the Raptors don’t have to play a center like Chicago did. Onyeka Okongwu could be an elite GPP play in just 18-20 minutes under $4,000 and he might be a slightly better fit against Toronto. 

Grizzlies vs Bulls 

Grizzlies – The name of the game tonight is “bounce-back game” and Ja Morant has no business being under $10,00 against a team that is missing two defenders on the perimeter and sits 27th in points allowed in the paint. Morant is leading the league in points off drives to the basket at 14.7 and won’t shoot 7-25 again as he did in the last game. Morant is a dark horse MVP candidate (he won’t win) but he’s put Memphis on his back through most of the season and tonight will be no different with 1.50 FPPM since Dillon Brooks is out. The same could be said for Desmond Bane since he shot 5-15 and the Bulls have allowed the sixth-highest FG% from deep this year. Steven Adams is a nice mid-range center play as the Bulls are weaker in the paint and they’ll likely want him to mirror Nikola Vucevic for a good chunk of the game but Ja is my priority right now and fits with Bogdanovic from Atlanta nicely. 

Bulls – This is definitely a spot where I don’t need a run back because the only salary that is palatable is Zach LaVine. Everyone “disappointed” to some extent on their salary and I include DeMar DeRozan in that. The guy is an absolute wizard in the mid-range shooting but he scored 37 real points and 51 DK points. I’m not saying 51 DK is bad but when a player has to score 37 to get there, that’s nerve-wracking. LaVine and Vuc were both under 40 DK but LaVine was also just 7-17 and didn’t do much outside of his scoring either. Both teams are in the top 13 in pace so I won’t fight you with a run-back, but Memphis is ninth in defensive rating. They aren’t my main focus on the slate. 

Teams To Monitor 

Cavaliers – They are down Darius Garland, Rajon Rondo, and Caris LeVert tonight so Brandon Goodwin will be one of the premier value players of the night at $4,200. I don’t mind Lauri Markkanen either as he played 28 minutes in his return and there are a lot of shot attempts that have opened up. 

Nets – This game is in Milwaukee so Kyrie Irving can play, which is more than can be said for a player like Ben Simmons who appears not that close to getting back. Gotta be careful from all that sitting out, I guess. I’m not saying Simmons should be expected for 35 minutes but the Nets are getting smashed routinely and could use any type of reinforcements. They are 10 point underdogs tonight and Kyrie is alright but I prefer Morant or Young. On another note, if this game could stay close Giannis Antetokounmpo could lead the slate in DK points. 

Kings/Nuggets – All I have to say is Domantas Sabonis and Nikola Jokić.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/24

We are back for a seven-game slate chock full of NBA action and there are some really strong games to pick from tonight! For the purposes of this article, we’re treating it as though every player that was involved in the All-Star Break will be fully active tonight unless we get news otherwise. Plenty of teams don’t have the luxury of sitting players so let’s dive into the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/24 and carve paths to green! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Grizzlies at Wolves

Grizzlies – I have zero concern with Ja Morant coming out of the break since he played 38 minutes prior to the ASB and participated in the activities for the weekend. This game has the highest total on the board by a lot at 239 and the spread is under three points as of Wednesday afternoon and Dillon Brooks remains out for the Grizzlies. With Brooks off the floor this season, Morant has 1.42 points per minute with a 34.2% usage art and 34.1% assist rate to back that up. Both teams are in the top eight in pace this season as well so this is a game we need some exposure to all the way around. 

Now, we have some guards that are going to be popular in a later game so Morant could be a little more tricky to fit. If that’s the case in your build, Desmond Bane, Steven Adams, and Jaren Jackson Jr. are always on the board for GPP options. Minnesota is allowing the fifth-highest frequency of 3-point shots allowed (42.8%) and that is always interesting for Bane. He’s shooting just a hair under 42% from deep this year and is at 1.03 points per minute himself. JJJ is capable of monster games with 1.13 FPPM and has the second-highest usage rate at 26.4% and they will need his size with the Wolves lineup on the other side. The same can be said for Adams and Minnesota is bottom 12 in points and rebounds allowed in the paint, directly in the wheelhouse for Adams. 

Wolves – The conundrum of who to play from Minnesota continues as the trio of Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and D’Angelo Russell all are affordable but all three are volatile. The usage is all similar but KAT does have an advantage in FPPM at 1.34 to 1.14 for D’Lo and 1.09 for Edwards. Having said that, Edwards could have the highest ceiling because he is leading the trio in attempts at 953 while KAT is at 867. That’s a big time gap and D’Lo has the assists and ball distribution behind him with a 32.3% assist rate. 

The biggest issue with D’Lo is you can be at the mercy of the 3-point shot because 385 of his 714 attempts have been behind the arc and that can come and go for a player that’s shooting 35.1% from that range. With Ant being the cheapest, he would be my choice but I’m not exactly forcing one of these guys into the lineup, and choosing the wrong player is pretty easy to do. You could roll with Patrick Beverly who is a one point per minute, but Memphis is first in rebounding and Beverly might have a harder time getting the periphery stats he needs to pay off. 

Hawks at Bulls 

Hawks – We’re still unsure of the status of John Collins leading into this game, but Trae Young should not be under $10,000. It appears that DK read the box score of 38 DK points in the last game but he played just 25 minutes as the Hawks killed the Magic. Chicago has fallen to 20th in defensive rating on the season and they are still without Lonzo Ball and

Alex Caruso, a big boost for Young. If Collins remains off the floor, Clint Capela could be chalky for the third straight slate. He has played at least 31 minutes in two of the past three games before the break and they would need him to counter Nikola Vucevic for the Bulls. He’s still too cheap for his potential and Chicago is 27th in points per game allowed in the paint. However, the main player that is underpriced might just be Bogdan Bogdanovic as he’s rattled off four straight games of 31 DK points or more and is still under $5,500. Let’s see what happens with Collins but no matter what, Young and Bogdanovic are primary targets. 

Bulls – Running back any Hawks options with a Bulls player is a little tough to get behind with the salary involved with the exception of one player. Vuc and DeMar DeRozan are really pricey (especially DDR) but Zach LaVine could hold the key to the runback. I would expect him to play full minutes as he played 11 at the ASG. A player who has any issues with the knee wouldn’t play any minutes and if he comes into this game still nursing any injury, Bulls fans should be really ticked. He’s not on the injury report at all, he’s under $9,000, and he has a 29.5% usage rate and 1.18 FPPM without the players they are missing. With the Hawks sitting 27th in defensive rating, this is a prime spot for a bounce-back game for LaVine. Provided he plays, everyone else is a little too much for my blood. 

Suns at Thunder 

Suns – It appeared that Cam Payne was going to be the chalk of the slate but he was surprisingly ruled out on Wednesday, so the spotlight turns to Elf Payton. He likely (Aaron Holiday could start I suppose) starts this game and without Payne and Chris Paul on the floor, Payton has 1.01 FPPM on just a 48% true shooting rate. At $3,400, he should play toward 30 minutes and it’s extremely hard to turn away from that salary. Additionally, Devin Booker under $9,000 is hard to pass as he sports a 34.1% usage and 1.30 FPPM. It doesn’t hurt that the Thunder are without Lu Dort either and it’s not that he’s the best defender ever, but he can be a pain to primary scoring options. It just makes the path that much easier. The big question with the Suns is can I play three together (Elf and Booker work perfectly well) because Deandre Ayton is under $7,000. His situation is interesting because he does lose his pick-and-roll distributor in CP3 but the Thunder are 17th in points and 30th in rebounds allowed in the paint. Elf does have a 38.5% frequency as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll so he can do it, but there’s zero debate that it’s not the same quality of play. I lean toward playing Payton with just one of Booker or Ayton tonight with the number of strong spots there are on the board. 

Thunder – Tonight sees Shai Gilgeous-Alexander make his return to the lineup after not playing since the 28th of January but I’m not sure I have to have anyone from the Thunder tonight. Getting SGA at $8,900 is fair but he hasn’t played in a month and I could see some rust being there. He needs his shot to be working to pay off this salary but it also hurts the upside of Josh Giddey. He started to scratch the surface on just how much of a fantasy monster he could be ahead of the ASB with three straight triple-double but the salary reflects that and he’s not the focal point any longer. With Dort, Kenrich Williams, and Ty Jerome missing tonight, Aleksej Pokusevski could still get some serious run in this rotation. The minutes can be hard to predict for him but when he’s played 30 minutes, he’s paid off this price tag. He does a little bit of everything and has .90 FPPM with a pathetic 37.1% true shooting rate with that trio out. Poku is still very affordable and could go totally overlooked. 

Honorable Mention 

Nuggets at Kings 

Warriors at Blazers (this game could go very small since Jusuf Nurkic is out with an injury)

Teams To Monitor 

Cavaliers – Both Caris LeVert and Darius Garland are out tonight (Garland playing at all in the ASG looks bad right now) and that could lead to a player like Brian Goodwin or Rajon Rondo being very popular. With super-cheap guards in play, Nikola Jokić against the Kings could be very popular and needed in cash games tonight but we’ll see how the day evolves. 

Nets – They are still without their three main guys tonight so Seth Curry, Cam Thomas, Patty Mills, and Andre Drummond are in play to varying degrees. Drum continues to taunt me as he hasn’t gotten solid minutes yet but Robert Williams is on track to play for Boston. They need the size to help with him but I wouldn’t go overboard here as the Celtics are 0.3 points away from leading the league in defensive rating. We have other much cheaper avenues for value so possibly just one Net is the answer. 

Bet Of The Night 

In addition to liking Zach LaVine for DFS, I’m targeting his assist prop on DK tonight. They have him listed at Over 4.5 Assists for -105 and LaVine already averages 4.5 assists per game overall. When Ball and Caruso are off the floor, his assist rate is 21.1% to go along with that usage rate of nearly 30%. Since we talked about the Hawks sitting 27th in defensive rating, LaVine will have plenty of chances to dish the rock tonight. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life