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Week 17 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Browns at Steelers

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in one of the final Week 17 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 17 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 17 NFL DFS Chalk: Nick Chubb (FD $16,500, DK $18,300)

Pivot: Najee Harris (FD $15,000, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #1: Diontae Johnson (FD $13,000, DK $17,400)

Contrarian #2: Baker Mayfield(FD $12,000, DK $13,500)

Contrarian #3: Ben Roethlisberger (FD $10,500, DK $14,100)

Contrarian #4: Jarvis Landry (FD $10,000, DK $9,600)

DK-Only Value Play: Ray-Ray McCloud (DK $5,100)

I may end up fading the QBs entirely in this matchup in favor of the starting RBs, and with Nick Chubb in a great matchup against a weak Steelers run defense and looking like the chalk for CPT, the best pivot might be Najee Harris.

Browns notes: Cleveland has most of its COVID players back, including Baker Mayfield and Jarvis Landry, the main two players you should be rostering in this showdown after Chubb, But TEs Austin Hooper and David Njoku are capable pass catchers who can make a big impact in any week. The problem is that the Steelers are excellent at defending the tight end position, so perhaps we should be looking at deep threat Donovan Peoples-Jones and Rashard Higgins a bit more if we’re stacking Mayfield with Browns receivers. The RB situation is complicated with the possible return of Kareem Hunt, but he’s a fringe option at best this week if he suits up.

Steelers notes: Tight end Pat Freiermuth is probably the best receiving option on Pittsburgh not named Diontae Johnson, but both the embattled Chase Claypool and Ray-Ray McCloud could a few extra targets this week if the Browns defense is successful in stifling Harris. Chris Boswell and the Steelers DST make some sense as low-owned pieces who could account for significant points this week, but I’m really focusing on the RBs, Johnson and Freiermuth tonight.

Week 17 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

Now that we’ve established some Week 17 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Nick Chubb
Najee Harris
Ben Roethlisberger
Diontae Johnson
Baker Mayfield
Jarvis Landry
Chase Claypool
Pat Freiemuth
Rashard Higgins
Donovan Peoples-Jones
Steelers DST
Austin Hooper
Kareem Hunt (questionable)
Browns DST
Chris Boswell
D’Ernest Johnson (if Hunt is inactive)
Ray-Ray McCloud III
David Njoku
Chase McLaughlin
James Washington
Benny Snell, Jr.
Anthony Schwartz
Zach Gentry
Harrison Bryant

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 16 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Dolphins at Saints

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in one of the final Week 16 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 16 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 16 NFL DFS Chalk: Alvin Kamara (FD $16,500, DK $18,300)

Pivot: Tua Tagovailoa (FD $15,000, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #1: Jalen Waddle (FD $13,000, DK $17,400)

Contrarian #2: Ian Book (FD $12,000, DK $13,500)

Contrarian #3: DeVante Parker (FD $10,500, DK $14,100)

DK Value Play: Mike Gesicki (FD $10,000, DK $9,600)

Alvin Kamara is the obvious chalk play for tonight’s showdown, but there are a few interesting pivots from both teams to consider, including Saints starting QB Ian Book, a largely unheralded rookie who gets the nod with Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill (COVID) unavailable.

Dolphins notes: Miami has a timeshare going on on at RB right now (starring both Duke Johnson and Myles Gaskin), so it’s much safer to look at the passing game with Tua Tagovailoa and the receivers. Both Jalen Waddle and DeVante Parker are available this week, as is TE Mike Gesicki, who offers decent value on both sites. While I have no preference among the RBs, I think Waddle and Gesicki are the priorities this week — though Parker is coming off his best fantasy performance (4-68-1 in Week 15 vs. NYJ) since Week 4 against the Colts. Kicker Jason Sanders and the Dolphins DST are also firmly in play

Saints notes: The untested Book is likely looking at a lower ownership than most QBs in this showdown, but since he’s an unknown commodity it’s a good idea to get some shares, even if it means generally fading the WRs — including Marquez Callaway and a questionable Tre’Quan Smith (hamstring). Kamara should be the focus of your builds this week but we could see more runs from veteran backup Mark Ingram as well. Kicker Brett Maher and the Saints DST are a slightly lesser priorities than their Miami counterparts.

Week 16 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

Now that we’ve established some Week 16 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Alvin Kamara
Jaylen Waddle
Tua Tagovailoa
DeVante Parker
Mike Gesicki
Ian Book
Myles Gaskin
Duke Johnson
Marquez Callaway
Dolphins DST
Tre’Quan Smith (if active)
Mark Ingram
Jason Sanders
Isaiah Ford
Brett Maher
Saints DST
Lil’Jordan Humphrey
Mack Hollins
Ty Montgomery
Nick Vannett
Adam Shaheen
Durham Smythe

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 16 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: 49ers at Titans

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The Thursday night showdown kicks off the Week 16 NFL DFS contests, and we’ve got the picks to help you win big tonight and make some serious green!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy and how it relates to Week 14 NFL DFS showdowns, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Week 16 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 16 NFL DFS Chalk: Deebo Samuel (FD $14,500, DK $17,400)

Pivot: George Kittle (FD $13,000, DK $16,800)

Pivot #2: A.J. Brown (FD $12,000, DK $13,200)

Contrarian #1: Ryan Tannehill (FD $15,000, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #2: Jimmy Garoppolo (FD $14,000, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #3 Brandon Aiyuk (FD $10,000, DK $12,000)

While it’s another pretty much wide open showdown in terms of CPT choice, Deebo Samuel maintains the edge over George Kittle for chalk, and it’s really hard to argue against either. Ryan Tannehill will get A.J. Brown back from IR for this one, so either of them could make sense as a contrarian play against a secondary that leaves much to be desired.

49ers notes: Samuel is the most explosive option for the 49ers, while Kittle is the most consistently productive with the highest floor over the past several weeks, but I’m still a big believer in Brandon Aiyuk, especially in a game that could have a little more offense than initially expected. Jeff Wilson has yet to settle into the role that Elijah Mitchell carved out before he injured his knee, and the Titans run defense is formidable enough that the Niners’ RBs are not a huge priority. I’m not against 2/10 GPP lineups featuring Jimmy Garoppolo at CPT and stacking with Kittle, Deebo and another SF piece against two Titans players.

Titans notes: I’d much rather stack 49ers offense than squeeze in Brown, but he’s got the most upside of any Titans player not named Tannehill. Dontrell Hilliard is a nice value since he could take the rock to the house, and I’m a little concerned that D’Onta Foreman‘s price exceeds that of Julio Jones, who i think could be the biggest beneficiary of Brown’s return and doesn’t have an injury designation despite leaving Week 15 early with a hamstring issue. Other value options include Geoff Swaim, Anthony Firkser and kicker Randy Bullock.

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense, and explore every option.

Week 16 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget to watch the inactives.

Deebo Samuel
George Kittle
A.J. Brown
Ryan Tannehill
Jimmy Garoppolo
Brandon Aiyuk
Julio Jones
D’Onta Foreman
Dontrell Hilliard
Jeff Wilson, Jr.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
49ers DST
Robbie Gould
Randy Bullock
Titans DST
Geoff Swaim
Anthony Firkser
Chester Rogers
Jauan Jennings
Jeremy McNichols
Kyle Juszczyk
JaMycal Hasty
Mycole Pruitt

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 15 action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 15 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Vikings at Bears

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in one of the final Week 15 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 15 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 15 NFL DFS Chalk: Dalvin Cook (FD $15,000, DK $17,700)

Pivot: Justin Jefferson (FD $14,500, DK $16,800)

Contrarian #1: Justin Fields (FD $14,000, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #2: Kirk Cousins (FD $16,000, DK $16,500)

Contrarian #3: David Montgomery (FD $12,500, DK $13,500)

DK Value Play: K.J. Osborn (FD $9000, DK $8,700)

Dalvin Cook projects to be the chalk at CPT, but there’s reason to believe a lot of folks will pivot to Justin Jefferson because of the upside in this matchup against the Bears — who are much better against the run. There’s also little standing in the way of Justin Fields having another big fantasy performance, as the Vikings defense is beat up and Fields is rolling n with a lot more confidence than the outset of 2021.

Vikings notes: Adam Thielen is questionable with an ankle injury, which means that K.J. Osborn‘s value takes a big hit if the veteran WR suits up. Kirk Cousins makes sense at CPT for contrarian builds and as a flex in 4-2 stacks, and Tyler Conklin and kicker Greg Joseph are my other to favorite plays on the Vikings, and we don’t really need to expand our player pool unnecessarily with this team.

Bears notes: After Fields, I have the most interest in David Montgomery and Darnell Mooney (with Allen Robinson still in COVID protocols), and TEs Cole Kmet and Jimmy Graham have seen their showdown salaries jump significantly in the past few weeks. Jakeem Grant and Damiere Byrd are also in play as a boom-or-bust options capable of huge plays despite limited touches/targets. I probably won’t be including either of these DSTs in too many builds.

Week 15 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

Now that we’ve established some Week 15 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Dalvin Cook
Justin Jefferson
Justin Fields
Kirk Cousins
David Montgomery
Darnell Mooney
K.J. Osborn (if Thielen inactive)
Allen Robinson (if he comes off COVID list)
Adam Thielen (questionable)
Tyler Conklin
Cole Kmet
Jakeem Grant
Damiere Byrd
Greg Joseph
Jimmy Graham
Cairo Santos
Vikings DST
Bears DST
Damien Williams
C.J. Ham
Wayne Gallman
Chris Herndon

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 15 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Chiefs at Chargers

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The Thursday night showdown kicks off the Week 15 NFL DFS contests, and we’ve got the picks to help you win big tonight and make some serious green!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy and how it relates to Week 14 NFL DFS showdowns, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Week 15 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 15 NFL DFS Chalk: Patrick Mahomes (FD $17,000, DK $18,000)

Pivot: Tyreek Hill (FD $13,000, DK $17,100)

Pivot #2: Austin Ekeler (FD $14,000, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #1: Justin Herbert (FD $16,500, DK $16,200)

Contrarian #2: Keenan Allen (FD $12,000, DK $14,100)

Contrarian #3 Travis Kelce (FD $12,500, DK $12,900)

Both teams have been hit by some COVID issues in the past two weeks (along with the rest of the NFL and world), but Patrick Mahomes has a near-full complement of weapons (missing just Josh Gordon) and will be the chalk tonight for CPT on both sites. There’s a case to be made for stacking up 3-4 Chargers to save some salary and using Justin Herbert in the top slot, but Mahomes has the current edge on the WinDaily optimizer over Herbert and Tyreek Hill.

Chiefs notes: Speaking of Hill, it’s been a while since he had one of his signature 150-200 yard games, but this could be the spot where he or Travis Kelce breaks loose with a monster multi-TD performance. With the O/U at 52 and the Chiefs 3-point favorites on the road, we should expect some fireworks from both offenses with a few key defenders missing. We can pencil in Clyde Edwards-Helaire for a heavy workload against a defense that’s vulnerable vs. the run, and my exposure to him will be about 4:1 over that of Darrel Williams, who still gets touches in big spots. Byron Pringle is about half the price of Mecole Hardman despite both carrying about the same upside and a similarly low floor, so I prefer Pringle at $2,600 if we need to squeeze in an extra Chief player. But kicker Harrison Butker is a better value than both of those guys anyway.

Chargers notes: Aside from the obvious trio of Herbert, Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler, who is listed as questionable but expected to play at less than 100%, we can narrow our focus to the always risky but sometimes rewarding Mike Williams, TEs Jared Cook and Donald Parham, Jr., and WR Jared Guyton. I expect Joshua Palmer to see much fewer snaps this week with Allen on the field and much fewer than the team-leading seven targets he saw against the Giants assuming the role of WR1 for the Chargers. He’ll revert to WR4 but could still be in play in maybe 1/15 or 1/20 builds. If for some reason Ekeler ends up sitting, Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley would likely split the backfield touches. There’s already word that Ekeler could be facing less than a full workload, so stay tuned to the pre-game reports leading up to lock.

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense, and explore every option.

Week 15 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget to watch the inactives.

Patrick Mahomes
Justin Herbert
Tyreek Hill
Travis Kelce
Keenan Allen
Austin Ekeler
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Mike Williams
Jared Cook
Darrel Williams
Jared Guyton
Harrison Butker
Byron Pringle
Mecole Hardman
Dustin Hopkins
Donald Parham, JR.
Justin Jackson
Joshua Kelley
Chargers DST
Chiefs DST
Joshua Palmer
Demarcus Robinson
Derrick Gore
Noah Gray

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 15 action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 14 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Rams at Cards

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 14 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 14 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 14 NFL DFS Chalk: Cooper Kupp (FD $15,000, DK $18,000)

Pivot: Kyler Murray (FD $17,000, DK $16,800)

Contrarian #1: Matthew Stafford (FD $15,500, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #2: DeAndre Hopkins(FD $12,500, DK $14,400)

Contrarian #3: Sony Michel (FD $12,000, DK $10,800)

DK Value Play: Chase Edmonds (FD $10,000, DK $6,900)

Cooper Kupp edges out Kyler Murray as the chalk play at CPT for Monday night, but either makes for a high-upside play with almost unlimited scoring potential. Kupp is the highest-scoring fantasy WR this season, averaging over 27 DK points per game, and Murray posted 30.82 DK points in last week’s return at Chicago. Getting both in your lineup will be difficult this week, but it can be done, especially if we can find another value play to plug in at CPT.

Rams notes: I won’t necessarily prioritize Matthew Stafford tonight, but I have plenty of interest in Van Jefferson and Sony Michel, and to a lesser degree, Odell Beckham, Jr. Of course, we’re making the assumption that Darrell Henderson won’t clear COVID protocols in time for the game, so I’ve left him off my list of targets. Tyler Higbee is a risk-reward option but has been a steady contributor to the offense this season aside from weeks 2 and 12, and he’s a solid value at $5K in a contest that’s missing any viable flex options under $2K.

Cards notes: DeAndre Hopkins is no longer the best WR in football, but he’s still a huge part of the Cards red zone offense and has a 20-25 point ceiling. Chase Edmonds is eligible to return from IR tonight, and the Cards have been playing it pretty close to the vest if they intend on activating him for this contest. They are well within their rights not to disclose whether or not he’s been practicing since he’s currently on IR, but if he suits up, he could be a big-time value play on a team that likes to run the ball and will utilize his smarts and skills to do anything that’s asked of him. We’ll have to stay tuned to the pre-game reports before deciding if we have any exposure, and how much. If he sits this out, James Conner should get a huge workload. A.J. Green had just one catch last week and could be a sneaky flex play at just $4,800, and as usual, Christian Kirk is a boom-or-bust type with huge upside and a terribly low floor. The same can probably be said for TE Zach Ertz.

Week 14 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

Now that we’ve established some Week 14 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Cooper Kupp
Kyler Murray
Matthew Stafford
DeAndre Hopkins
Sony Michel
James Conner
Van Jefferson
Chase Edmonds (if active)
Tyler Higbee
A.J. Green
Odell Beckham, Jr.
Christian Kirk
Zach Ertz
Matt Prater
Matt Gay
Rams DST
Cards DST
Eno Benjamin (if Edmonds inactive)
Rondale Moore
Mehki Sargent
Ben Skowronek
Demetrius Harris
Kendall Blanton

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 14 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Steelers at Vikings

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The Thursday night showdown kicks off the Week 14 NFL DFS contests, and we’ve got the picks to help you win big tonight and make some serious green!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy and how it relates to Week 14 NFL DFS showdowns, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Week 14 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 14 NFL DFS Chalk: Justin Jefferson (FD $13,500, DK $16,500)

Pivot: Najee Harris (FD $14,000, DK $15,000)

DK Value Pivot (Steelers): Ben Roethlisberger (FD $15,000, DK $13,500)

Contrarian #1: Diontae Johnson (FD $13,000, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #2: Chase Claypool (FD $10,000, DK $11,100)

Contrarian #3 (DK only): Steelers DST (DK $6,300)

A couple of weeks ago the outlook for this matchup may have been a lot different, but in that time, Dalvin Cook was injured (but should return for this game), the Steelers bounced back in a huge way and the Vikings lost to the Lions — the first win for Detroit in the 2021 season. With the Steelers defense around full strength and tied for the fourth-lowest red-zone conversion rate in the NFL and Adam Thielen out for this one, I’m eliminating Kirk Cousins from the majority of my builds and focusing on the Steelers and Justin Jefferson, who will probably end up being the chalk at CPT with Cook’s shoulder somewhat of a question mark.

Steelers notes: Ben Roethlisberger could have enormous value against a banged-up Vikings defense, and he’s got a near-full complement of weapons (minus JuJu Smith-Schuster, of course). I’m inclined to stack up Roethisberger at CPT in Steelers-heavy builds with Pat Freiermuth and Diontae Johnson, though it’s a good bounceback spot for Najee Harris, who had his most effective stretch between weeks 3-8 but has slowed down a bit in his rookie season. Both Freiermuth and Chase Claypool offer big-time value given their upsides, though Claypool has been relatively quiet in 2021 with just one TD.

Vikings notes: Jefferson and ook should pace the offense tonight, but we can mix in some shares of Tyler Conklin and K.J. Osborn, both of whom have some aditional value with Thielen out. Since Cook is expected to play, we can probably eliminate Alexander Mattison from the majority of our builds, though I’m not opposed to getting some shares in case Cook is limited or takes a big hit and is forced to leave the game. I have much less interest in the Vikings DST but will have some shares of kicker Greg Joseph considering how the Steelers tend to stall drives in the red zone.

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

Week 14 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget to watch the inactives.

Justin Jefferson
Ben Roethlisberger
Najee Harris
Diontae Johnson
Dalvin Cook
Kirk Cousins
Pat Freiermuth
Tyler Conklin
Chase Claypool
Steelers DST
Greg Joseph
K.J. Osborn
Chris Boswell
Alexander Mattison
James Washington
Vikings DST
Ray-Ray McCloud
Benny Snell, Jr.
Dede Westbrook
Zach Gentry

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 14 action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 13 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Patriots at Bills

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 13 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 13 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 13 NFL DFS Chalk: Josh Allen (FD $17,500, DK $16,800)

Pivot: Stefon Diggs (FD $14,000, DK $15,900)

Contrarian #1: Damien Harris (FD $12,500, DK $14,700)

Contrarian #2: Cole Beasley (FD $10,000, DK $11,700)

Contrarian #3: Mac Jones (FD $15,000, DK $15,000)

DK Value Play: Devin Singletary (FD $8,000, DK $6,900)

DK Value Play #2: Nelson Agholor (FD $7,000, DK $4,500)

Josh Allen is the clear chalk and it’s not very close, as his overall ownership could be near 90% this week. I like Stefon Diggs as the main pivot because he’s got the ability to score a ton of points over two drives, as we’ve seen him do to salvage fantasy performances in the past. Mac Jones is an interesting contrarian play because we could easily see him pay off the price if he can keep up with Allen, and with the Bills missing Tre’Davious White.

Patriots notes: I like both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson but understand it’s tough for them to both eat, so I’ll deal with that by using both in 1/10 GPPs and alternating each in eight of the other builds, with just one without either. The price has come up a bit on Kendrick Bourne but he is a playmaker, along with Nelson Agholor, who could flash some serious game-changing value in lineups tonight if he can haul in some a red zone targets. The Bills are favored in this game but the Patriots have the kind of team that could bury them early if the offense gets off to a slow start. The Patriots DST could be as good or better than the Bills DST, so I’ll try to find room for one or two builds for each because turnovers could play a pivotal role. Hunter Henry is the best value play other than Agholor. Jakobi Meyers is a little out of my price range.

Bills notes: I’ll start off by saying I love the value on Devin Singletary tonight, but only if Zack Moss gets scratched again. IK like what Matt Breida has ben doing but he’s way overpriced for that low of an upside in this game. And let’s be honest, we just saw an RB duo put up big numbers against the Pats. I like the price on Dawson Knox as well, because he has two-TD upside. The WRS to own shouldn’t get to nuts outside of Diggs and Cole Beasley, though I’m partial to using Gabriel Davis considering the physical presence of an athlete him in the red zone. Tyler Bass, and his counterpart on the Pats, seem to be in play this week as well, since they both get so many attempts. The Pats attempt the most, and the Bills attempt the ninth most.

Week 13 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks with the Patriots running game. It’s a timeshare but both get meaningful carries and the Bills unit, while tough against the run, hasn’t faced a bruising unit like these two underrated backs in a while.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

Now that we’ve established some Week 13 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Josh Allen
Stefon Diggs
Mac Jones
Damien Harris
Dawson Knox
Cole Beasley
Rhamondre Stevenson
Devin Singletary
Matt Breida
Kendrick Bourne
Hunter Henry
Jakobi Meyers
Tyler Bass
Nelson Agholor
Bills DST
Patriots DST
Nick Folk (questionable)
Brandon Bolden (questionable)
Emmanuel Sanders
Gabriel Davis
Jonnu Smith
N’Keal Harry
Zack Moss (if active)
Tommy Sweeney
Devin Asiasi
Isaiah McKenzie

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 13 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Cowboys at Saints

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The Thursday night showdown kicks off the Week 13 NFL DFS contests, and we’ve got the picks to help you win big tonight and make some serious green!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy and how it relates to Week 13 NFL DFS showdowns, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Week 13 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 13 NFL DFS Chalk: Dak Prescott (FD $16,500, DK $17,700)

Value Pivot (FD): Taysom Hill (FD $7,000, DK $14,400)

Value Pivot #2 (DK): Mark Ingram (FD $12,000, DK $7,500)

Top Cowboys Pivot: CeeDee Lamb (FD $13,000, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #1: Tre’Quan Smith (FD $9,000, DK $8,400)

Contrarian #2: Tony Pollard (FD $12,000, DK $11,700)

Longshot Value Play (DK): Tony Jones (FD $10,000, DK $1,200)

Wowzer, have we got some wild pricing disparity on a couple of key Saints players tonight on both FanDuel and DraftKings! Dak Prescott is the chalk on FD over value play Taysom Hill — who is slated to be the starting QB for the Saints. Prescott also has a slight edge on DK over Hill and Mark Ingram, who’s expected to serve as the lead back on TNF (Alvin Kamara will not be available to play, according to Ian Rapoport) after missing Week 12 against the Bills. There’s a lot of vlue combos to explore on both sites, so let’s get to the team notes!

Cowboys notes: CeeDee Lamb is back for the Cowboys, and that means less upside overall for what now qualifies as a risk/reward Michael Gallup, who could find it easier to get loose on a deep ball. Ezekiel Elliott is supposed to get a “serious load” but has fewer then 10 carries in each of his last two games and Tony Pollard is just as effective in terms of fantasy production when he gets the chance. For the discount, I’ll take Pollard in the majority of my GPP builds and fade Zeke in the interest of a contrarian approach. I also like Amari Cooper if he’s active tonight, but he could have a hard time playing at 100 percent in the wake of his bout with COVID, so that’s a seriously risky play even if he goes. I’ll probably have more shares of TE Dalton Schultz either way.

Saints notes: Trevor Siemian has finally given way to Hill, and while that could decrease the usage of Tre’Quan Smith in the red zone, it certainly bumps the importance of Ingram since they’ll likely be doing less throwing overall. I still like Smith tonight, and we can expect that Siemian could possibly make an appearance in this game if Hill totally flops, but on DK they’re both priced around the same. We can downgrade both Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris, and I expect more involvement from TEs Nick Vannett and Juwan Johnson, who combined for one target/catch last Thursday night. With Ingram back, a lot of folks will forget about Tony Jones, but he’s still a free square on DK at just $800 as a FLEX play. on DK, especially if we get word that Ingram has a setback in warmups and will be limited in any way.

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

Week 13 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget to watch the inactives.

Dak Prescott
Taysom Hill (FD, bump down a spot on DK)
CeeDee Lamb
Mark Ingram
Tony Pollard
Ezekiel Elliott
Dalton Schultz
Michael Gallup
Tre’Quan Smith
Amari Cooper (questionable)
Cowboys DST
Marquez Callaway
Greg Zuerlein
Deonte Harris
Brett Maher
Saints DST
Tony Jones, Jr.
Noah Brown
Lil’Jordan Humphrey
Nick Vannett
Juwan Johnson
Trevor Siemian (DK only)

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 13 action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 12 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Seahawks at Washington

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 12 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 12 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 12 NFL DFS Chalk: Russell Wilson (FD $15,500, DK $16,500)

Pivot: Taylor Heinicke (FD $14,500, DK $14,700)

Contrarian #1: DK Metcalf (FD $13,500, DK $13,200)

Contrarian #2: Terry McLaurin (FD $14,000, DK $15,900)

Contrarian #3: Antonio Gibson (FD $12,000, DK $12,900)

Contrarian #3: Tyler Lockett (FD $12,500, DK $15,300)

Russell Wilson and Taylor Heinicke are pretty much neck-and-neck for the chalk, but I think Wilson will end up being the more popular choice by gametime. Still – the way to get different is to play a WR/RB or even TE Logan Thomas, who’s returning from IR and should be active, albeit on a limited snap count. If the game is close and his hamstring is holding up, I could see him getting a few more looks than normal on crucial drives.

Seahawks notes: DK Metcalf still has as much upside of just about any WR in the the game excluding Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill, so I prefer him over Tyler Lockett, but the rest of the Seahawks offense could see showdown-relevant performances from just about anyone, including both Alex Collins and DeeJay Dallas and TE Gerald Everett. Dallas is relatively cheap, and he’s assuming the passing down role with Travis Homer out this week. Don’t forget about Freddie Swain, who’s been quiet lately but is on the field for over a third of the offensive snaps, including some opportunities in the red zone. Both the Seahawks DST and kicker Jason Myers are in play as well, especially with some of the sloppy prime time football we’ve bene seeing lately.

Washington notes: It’s primarily going to be Heinicke, Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson in most builds, though the J.D. McKissic/Thomas combo could bear fruit in the two-minute drill if the WFT needs a quick score or gets into garbage time in a Seahawks-dominant game script. Curtis Samuel could make an impact even on a pitch count, and the fringe WRs for Washington, including DeAndre Carter and Cam Sims, have been used a lot in the red zone, but seem overpriced based on the return of Samuel and Thomas. The Washington DST is far from full strength without Chase Young, but it’s still a unit capable of forcing turnovers, getting sacks and making big plays.

Week 12 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks with the Seattle running game. It’s a timeshare and DeeJay Dallas is capable of playing well.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

Now that we’ve established some Week 12 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Russell Wilson
Taylor Heinicke
DK Metcalf
Terry McLaurin
Antonio Gibson
Tyler Lockett
J.D. McKissic
Alex Collins
DeeJay Dallas
Logan Thomas
Curtis Samuel
Gerald Everett
Seahawks DST
DeAndre Carter
Washington DST
Joey Slye
Jason Myers
Cam Sims
Freddie Swain
John Bates
Will Dissly
Adam Humphries (questionable)

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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