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NFL DFS Conference Finals – Stix Picks

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

Let’s get right into it for the Conference Finals NFL DFS slate. This week’s article will simply be a ranking at each position for the players in my DFS player pool.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

Cincinnati @ Kansas City (-7) / TOTAL (53.5)
San Francisco @ Los Angeles (-3.5) / TOTAL (45.5)

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes – regardless of price, Mahomes will be my quarterback this week on all NFL DFS formats. There’s no one on the slate with his floor or his upside. The rushing upside of late is also an added bonus to the best quarterback in the NFL. Mahomes dictates the outcome of this game and is gamescript proof in a game with a significantly higher expected pace than the late game in LA.

Ownership projections have Patrick Mahomes sitting around 45% owned and I think that’s about 20% too low. 55% of the field is in a rough path to the leaderboards if they’re going to fade Mahomes.

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford

NFL DFS Running Backs

Joe Mixon – the obvious number one back on this slate is Joe Mixon. He’s the only running back on this slate with 20+ carry upside out of the backfield and 5+ receptions in the passing game. Like many, the Bengals will need to control the pace the best they can to keep Mahomes off the field as their offensive line simply cannot handle a shootout pace like we saw the Bills do last week. The Chiefs’ defensive line is healthy and will certainly limit what Mixon can do on the ground, but I’m most interested in Mixon due to his passing game abilities, especially against a heavy blitz team like the Chiefs.

Projected ownership: 5%
Elijah Mitchell – like the Bengals, the only hope the 49ers have is to control the pace of this game and have it play out at a snail’s pace with 25+ carries for Elijah Mitchell. I don’t love taking opposing running backs against the Rams but on a two-game slate, there’s not many options. Mitchell is a fine play who may certainly be game-scripted out a bit if the Rams jump on it early.

Projected ownership: 35%
Cam Akers – it appears that Sean McVay has officially given Cam Akers the keys to the Rams’ backfield castle while giving him over 80% of the snaps for 20 carries last week (Sony Michel 20% and just three touches). I do think we’ll see a bit more Michel this week if the Rams get ahead by two scores early (I think they do), but the price-tag of Akers is too-low to avoid when he’s one of the few running backs who have pass-catching upside.

Projected ownership: 55%

Honorable Mention: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (20% ownership projection), Jerrick McKinnon

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp – best WR option on the NFL DFS slate.

Projected ownership: 45%
Ja’Maar Chase – we talked about Ja’Maar Chase’s success against high-blitz rate teams all season long and there’s no reason to shy away from that now. He’s my clear WR2 on this slate who averaged 24.4 fantasy points per game against the AETY Model’s highest expected blitz rate opponents.

Projected ownership: 35%
Tyreek Hill – not a whole lot to say about Tyreek Hill, besides “thank you” for last week’s performance. Hill can always break a slate and certainly has some excellent matchups every way he lines up against this Bengals’ secondary. I honestly will not have a lot of exposure to him and that scares the hell out of me.

Projected ownership: 50%
Tee Higgins – Higgins’ price is just too low for the expected volume in a game where the Bengals’ will likely be chasing points from the get-go. Like Ja’Maar, Higgins has excelled in all aspects of the game this season but has had some of his better games against high-blitz teams, averaging 16.1 fantasy points per game in those matchups and a relatively higher red-zone share than Ja’Maar Chase. Tee Higgins will have a lot of single coverage with Charvarius Ward, which is something the AETY Model says to attack.

Projected ownership: 35%
Odell Beckham Jr. – Love the upside and pay-down off of Cooper Kupp. Odell Beckham will have a lot of single coverage and we’ve seen the red-zone targets take a massive swing upward of late… at the cheap price-tag, Odell Beckham offers us a lot of NFL DFS upside at significantly less ownership than most of the top tier wideouts on the slate.

Projected ownership: 20%
Deebo Samuel – I’m having a very hard time getting to Deebo Samuel this week after he was significantly banged up against the Packers’ last week and the lack of targets in the passing game. Like Tyreek Hill, he can break the slate and a fade scares me, but I’m likely to fade. He’s a stud and please do not let me scare you away from him… just letting you know where I’m at.

Projected ownership: 35%
Jauan Jennings – Jennings is surprisingly trailing Deebo Samuel by only four targets over the past seven games for the 49ers and is also active in the red-zone packages. With a list full of studs, I needed to add some value to this section of the article and I can’t think of anyone better (besides maybe one of the cheaper KC wideouts) than Jennings. The AETY Model gives a nice upgrade to slot receivers against the Rams and Jennings fits my narrative of the 49ers having to play catch-up to Stafford and the Rams.

Projected ownership: 5%
Byron Pringle – it’s hard to ignore his recent production and he’s a stackable piece to the only quarterback I’ll play this weekend. Pringle is seeing the majority of his work out of the slot and that’s the strong suit for the Bengals’ secondary in Mike Hilton.

Projected ownership: 25%
Mecole Hardman – I’m likely to full fade Byron Pringle in NFL DFS due to the heavy chalk on the “value wideout” and pivot down to Mecole Hardman. Hardman seems to be a feature on the Chiefs’ offense for gadget plays (which he certainly can provide significant upside through), but also running the majority of his snaps on the outside. There should be a handful of opportunities for Hardman to be on the outside in single coverage with one safety behind him (likely to shade towards Kelce/Hill)so… I’m calling for a Hardman long touchdown this weekend. Let’s go.

Projected ownership: 10%

Honorable Mention: Brandon Aiyuk, Tyler Boyd

Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce – clear top tight-end on this NFL DFS slate.

Projected ownership: 50%
George Kittle – Kittle has been a bit of a bust of late but with my projected gamescript of the 49ers playing from behind, this should be an excellent breakthrough spot for Kittle. Starting to love the idea of using both Kelce and Kittle together for the combined red-zone upside and differentiation with two tight-ends.

Projected ownership: 25%

3. CJ Uzomah – at the price, I’ll be very interested in punting down to Uzomah or paring him on the other side of Travis Kelce for a double tight-end build. I want as much exposure to this high-scoring affair as I can get.

Projected ownership: 25%

4. Tyler Higbee – love the red-zone upside, but not a big fan of playing Higbee when Uzomah is cheaper and in an arguably better gamescript.

Projected ownership: 35%

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams, but prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at in my NFL DFS lineups:

Los Angeles Rams
San Francisco 49ers
Kansas City Chiefs

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate

3 years ago 0 comments

Stix Picks: Week 13 NFL DFS GPP

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 13 NFL DFS GPP slate! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 13 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2021 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert ($6,700 DK / $8,200 FD) / Joe Burrow ($6,300 DK / $7,400 FD)

Despite any ownership projection, I’ll be heavily interested in both signal callers Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow in a game with a 50.5 point total which is tied for the highest on the slate (TB/ATL). If I had to choose one, it would likely be Herbert as the passing volume for the Chargers is second to only Tom Brady and the Bucs, but the AETY Model loves the expected pace on both sides of this game and the condensed target shares by both teams for stacking purposes.

On DraftKings, these guys are way too cheap for the expected outputs on both sides, but Burrow’s ownership is projected to be under 5% in comparison to Justin Herbert around 12-15%.

LAC Key Pairing(s) / Run-backs: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler
CIN Key Pairing(s)/ Run-backs: Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins

Taylor Heinicke ($5,600 DK / $7,100 FD)

The second game of my GPP interest this weekend will be in Las Vegas featuring two of the weaker defenses in the NFL. The Washington Football Team grades 31st in overall defense DVOA while the hosting Las Vegas Raiders grade 24th. Assuming these two teams play to their true colors and bleed offensive production from the jump, this game should offer a ton of condensed, fantasy upside. Heinicke also offers a little upside with his rushing ability, leaving him as one of my favorite NFL DFS GPP quarterbacks at sub-5% ownership and perfect leverage (or additional pairing) to Antonio Gibson chalk.

Key Pairing(s): Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson. Logan Thomas
Key Run-back(s): Hunter Renfrow, Foster Moreau

Tyrod Taylor ($5,300 DK / $7,000 FD)

One thing I love the most is praying on the recency bias of DFS players. Last week, everyone wanted to take the savings and eat the Tyrod Taylor chalk in a home game against the Jets. Wouldn’t you know, Tyrod Taylor let them down. This week, Tyrod is my 1% owned NFL DFS GPP punt-play of the week at the quarterback position in a gamescript that actually promotes a healthy passing narrative for Tyrod Taylor as a 10-point underdog to Jonathan Taylor and company. Why people chased the Tyrod love last week against the Jets is beyond me, but if you like Tyrod, this would be the game to play him against a Colts’ pass-funnel defense where he’ll be chasing points early.

He’s still Tyrod Taylor and it’s still the Texans, they can always sh** the bed. Proceed with caution.

Key Pairing(s): Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins
Key Run-back(s): Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr.

Honorable Mention: Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

I’m pretty much locked into Jonathan Taylor and the value chalk running backs of Elijah Mitchell and Antonio Gibson. I will have to get different elsewhere in my lineups as you’ll read in this article. Outside of those three, here’s who will be core players in my NFL DFS GPP player pool…

Joe Mixon ($8,100 DK / $9,400 FD)

Joe Mixon around 10% ownership in one of my favorite games on the slate to attack? Yes, please. We don’t need to go into more detail on Chargers’ 32nd ranked run defense (DVOA).

Saquon Barkley ($6,300 DK / $7,200 FD)

Saquon Barkley is still Saquon Barkley but priced like Josh Jacobs and James Robinson, lol. Barkley does not have a ton of “Vegas love” with rushing props in the mid-50’s, but the upside with Barkley is that he can always break one off and fill up the box score with his pass catching abilities, especially against a Miami defense that runs a lot of Cover-Zero.

Honorable Mention: Miles Sanders, Alexander Mattison, Austin Ekeler, James Conner

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($8,200 DK / $8,000 FD)

Criminal price on FanDuel, but always in play with the volume on DraftKings. The AETY Model has Jefferson as the true WR2 on this slate, right behind Cooper Kupp. This secondary for Detroit is borderline practice-squad and will not be able to contain the pristine route running of Jefferson.

Terry McLaurin ($7,500 DK / $7,200 FD)

The player with the highest upside in one of my favorite games to get exposure to at under 5% ownership. We always pick on the Raiders’ secondary that grades 25th in pass defense DVOA. If this games shoots out like the AETY Model projects it will, Terry McLaurin will be in an excellent spot for a ceiling game of 7+ receptions, 100+ yards and 22+ fantasy points.

Ja’Maar Chase ($7,000 DK / $7,500 FD)

No Asante Samuel Jr. and a relatively banged up Chargers’ secondary as a whole… Ja’Maar is due for another blow-up game and as long as this one goes up-paced, Chase is in line for a monster output in addition to all of the key players on this Bengals’ offense.

Nico Collins ($3,100 DK / $5,200 FD)

Alright, it’s time… the Nico Collins breakout game is upon us! For those of you that have been with Win Daily for a while (we greatly appreciate you), you know how much I love the upside of Nico Collins. I don’t expect 15+ points, but at damn-near site minimums and no Danny Amendola, we should finally see a 70% or greater snap share for Collins in a gamescript that should heavily lean towards Texans’ pass-catchers. We always pick on Rock Ya-Sin and Xavier Rhodes, so let’s give the rookie a shot here in lineups we need salary relief.

Honorable Mention: DK Metcalf, Cooper Kupp, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, Hunter Renfrow, Brandon Aiyuk, Elijah Moore, Van Jefferson, Josh Reynolds

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

As mentioned in the Cash Game Checkdown,

This week is rather simple for me at tight-end. You’re either punting down to Foster Moreau with Darren Waller out with injury, or riding one of the higher priced tight-ends of:

– Logan Thomas
– Rob Gronkowski
– Mark Andrews
– George Kittle: absolutely love him as a run-back to low-owned Russel Wilson stacks and leverage off of Eli Mitchell chalk. At 5% ownership, no one has the upside George Kittle has at the tight-end position this weekend.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Higbee, Kyle Pitts

Thank you all for the support and good luck this week! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 13 – Cash Game Checkdown

Allan Fabrykant 3 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

Welcome back to the Week 13 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 13, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Loaded running back player pool! I am focusing on building my cash game lineup around 3 running backs and more of the mid-tier values at wide receiver.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Tom Brady ($7,200 DK / $8,100 FD)

Despite the let-down in Week 12, Tom Brady enters this week as arguably the top cash-game quarterback option against the Atlanta Falcons’ secondary ranked 29th in pass defense DVOA. Hell, my best GPP lineup last week was with Trevor Lawrence going up against Atlanta. That is how much I despise this Falcons’ defense and will always look to attack them in NFL DFS. The Bucs have the highest implied team total on this slate and should have no issues putting up 30+ points on the road, in the dome. Brady is a staple for 250+ passing yards and multiple touchdown passes in this matchup.

Justin Herbert ($6,700 DK / $8,200 FD)

Volume, volume, volume. Week in, week out you’ll hear me preach about volume when discussing cash game lineup builds and outside of Tom Brady, there is no one that compares to the passing volume of Justin Herbert. I love this game from multiple angles and with the second highest total on the slate, I feel quite confident in loading up on this matchup. The AETY Model grades out Herbert as the fourth highest value on the slate at the quarterback position putting him well in play for cash games, despite having a relatively high price-tag at $6,700 on DK and $8,200 on FD.

Honorable Mention: Matt Stafford, Joe Burrow

NFL DFS Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor ($9,200 DK / $10,500 FD)

Priced up like a healthy Derrick Henry! If you can afford him, you load up Jonathan Taylor as a 10-point favorite against Houston and their 25th ranked run defense (DVOA). I do not think he’s 100% necessary for cash as there are tons of great options at the running back position this week, but there’s arguably no one safer in addition to offering ridiculous upside, like Jonathan Taylor.

Joe Mixon ($8,100 DK / $9,400 FD)

Weekly spot of picking on the Chargers’ dead-last run defense in the NFL. I have him neck and neck with Jonathan Taylor as the RB1 this week with a significant discount to Taylor on both NFL DFS outlets.

Alexander Mattison ($7,500 DK / $8,700 FD)

Incredibly surprised the DFS sites raised his price before knowing the true severity of Dalvin Cook’s injury, but price aside, the lead Minnesota running back is always an elite play in this outside-zone running scheme, as a touchdown-favorite against Detroit. He’d be an absolute lock in cash games if he were priced down like usual backup running backs moving into a lead role, but he’s still 100% cash viable in this high-volume running system.

Elijah Mitchell ($6,000 DK / $7,600 FD)

You all know my love for Elijah Mitchell on a normal week basis, now this is Elijah Mitchell without Deebo Samuel taking key snaps out of the backfield. The Seattle Seahawks run defense is stingy on paper but has been getting carved up of late, giving up over 140 rush yards to Washington Football Team’s pair of running backs last week. Washington has been a putrid running offense this year in terms of efficiency (25th in run offense DVOA) while the run game is the heart and soul of San Francisco’s offense (7th in run offense DVOA). The 49ers and Mitchell should have no problem putting up quality fantasy numbers like the Washington backs just did.

Antonio Gibson ($5,700 DK / $6,200 FD)

Way too cheap on both NFL DFS outlets with the assumption J.D. McKissic misses this game with a concussion. This game has one of the higher total on the slates, which in theory, provides Gibson with plenty of touchdown equity and the loss of McKissic should boost a heavy workload in the passing attack… which we finally saw glimpses of from Gibson in Week 12.

Jamaal Williams ($5,400 DK / $6,500 FD)

Not in love with Jamaal Williams by any means, but with no D’Andre Swift, we can assume this will lead to a heavy workload in Dan Campbell’s extremely run-heavy offense. I would not be surprised to see a bit more Jermar Jefferson this week, but Jamaal Williams will still get the lion-share of the carries/targets and demand 45% or more ownership in NFL DFS cash games.

UPDATE: Sony Michel is a fine cash play if Henderson is OUT.

Honorable Mention: James Conner, Sony Michel

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Chris Godwin ($6,600 DK / $7,600 FD)

If you cannot afford Tom Brady, get exposure to him through Chris Godwin. Yes, Godwin let many of you down last week, but we cannot play this game with extreme recency bias in any direction. Godwin is in an excellent spot for 5+ receptions and 75 or more receiving yards with significant touchdown equity.

Brandin Cooks ($5,900 DK / $6,700 FD)

Wide receivers against the Colts’ secondary… sound familiar? Yes? We do it every week and it more times than not will go in our favor. Cooks is a mid-tier priced, WR1 in a game where the Texans will be chasing points from the get-go. I never love to roster Cooks, but the price-tag and matchup screams to play him in cash, especially with 35% or more of the field likely to roster him. Rock Ya-Sin will get torched multiple times by Cooks’ elite route running.

Brandon Aiyuk ($5,700 DK / $7,000 FD)

Absolute lock for me in cash games this week as Brandon Aiyuk takes over the X spot in the 49ers’ wide receiving core while Deebo Samuel is out with injury. This will be one of the rare weeks I’m okay with “stacking” an offense in cash games, using Eli Mitchell and Brandon Aiyuk together. If I had to choose one, it’s Aiyuk.

Mike Williams ($5,700 DK / $6,500 FD)

Mike Williams is quietly coming back to life and 100% healthy, which we haven’t seen since he lit the fantasy football world on fire earlier in this 2021 season. We all know this offense runs through Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler, but at this low of a price-tag and 20 targets in the past three games, Mike Williams is an extreme cash game value on a week many of you will look to pay up at running back. Do we even need to talk about the matchup on the outside with Eli Apple? Let’s go, Big Mike!

Honorable Mention: Keenan Allen, Tee Higgins, Ja’Maar Chase, Diontae Johnson, Hunter Renfrow, Terry McLaurin

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

This week is rather simple for me at tight-end. You’re either punting down to Foster Moreau with Darren Waller out with injury, or riding one of the higher priced tight-ends of:

– Logan Thomas
– Rob Gronkowski
– Mark Andrews

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Top-Tier
– Los Angeles Rams
– Indianapolis Colts

Mid-Tier
– Philadelphia Eagles
– Miami Dolphins

Punts
– Las Vegas Raiders
– New York Giants
– Chicago Bears
– Detroit Lions

3 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks: Week 12 NFL DFS GPP

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 11 NFL DFS GPP slate! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 12 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat.

*We all know where the chalk (Bucs, Chargers, Panthers) is going to be and as stated above, I’m not here to tell you not to play those games in GPP… I love those games as well.

Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:

TB/IND
MIN/SF
ATL/JAX
GB/LAR
LAC/DEN

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence ($5,400 DK / $6,700 FD)

Alright, we’re on the first damn player in the article and it’s already time to throw-up. There’s multiple paths to failure when rostering a guy like Trevor Lawrence. I know that, you know that, we all know that. My main concern isn’t the Jacksonville offense (which is scary to say), it’s the absolute pathetic effort we’ve seen from Atlanta over the past month. These guys have absolutely no fight in them whatsoever and I’m extremely concerned they do not push the pace and keep Jacksonville’s passing game active. Having said that, this is a matchup of two of the league’s worst defenses, we should see some offense… I hope.

Behind only the New York Jets, Atlanta’s defense gives up the most points to opponent offenses in the NFL and the AETY Model agrees… grading out Jacksonville’s offense as the 5th highest, ceiling-touchdown equity on the slate. It’s gross, but at 1-2% ownership, I’ll take a shot on Trevor Lawrence as big-time leverage off of one of the highest owned running backs on the slate in James Robinson, but mainly for what it allows me to afford with the rest of my build. Let’s get weird!

*At this low of ownership, you do not need to force a pairing or run-back, but with no Jamal Agnew, the target-share is rather condensed (or so I hope) on the Jacksonville side of the ball. With Atlanta as a run-back (again, likely not necessary), you know exactly where the production will likely come from.

Key Pairing(s): Laviska Shenault, Marvin Jones, Dan Arnold, James Robinson
Key Run-back(s): Kyle Pitts

Kirk Cousins ($6,300 DK / $7,500 FD)

Continuing the theme of picking on pass-funnel defenses leads us back to Kirk Cousins, who low-key has been a top-eight fantasy quarterback this year. This Vikings/49ers game has the second highest total on the slate with little-to-no ownership at all and I love the simple “stack-ability” we get with Minnesota. I’ll roll the dice backing Cousins and this Vikings’ offense in NFL DFS GPP builds against the 49ers 22nd ranked pass defense (DVOA).

Key Pairing(s): Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, Tyler Conklin
Key Run-back(s): George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk

Jalen Hurts ($7,300 DK / $8,400 FD)

Jalen Hurts is officially the top-scoring quarterback in fantasy football this season and comes into the week off of a MONSTER fantasy performance in Week 11. His price went significantly up across all NFL DFS outlets, but his ownership did not. I’m seeing Jalen Hurts projected for 5-8% ownership and that is music to my ears as a perfect leverage spot to combat Miles Sanders nut chalk week.

Although the outcome may not be the same, this is the EXACT situation Ghost and I talked about on the livestream last week when we discussed the Packers’ passing attack in NFL DFS GPP builds to leverage ourselves against the AJ Dillon chalk… those lineups absolutely destroyed the DFS community.

Key Pairing(s): Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert
Key Run-back(s): Evan Engram, Saquon Barkley

Honorable Mention: Matt Stafford, Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Justin Herbert

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($8,100 DK / $8,100 FD)

Way too cheap on FanDuel, but still a great, low-owned play on DraftKings. Anytime we can get Dalvin Cook under 8% ownership in a high-total game, we need to seriously consider rostering him. As much as I like Kirk Cousins, I equally like this spot for a dual-threat running back with extreme red-zone equity in Dalvin Cook.

Najee Harris ($8,200 DK / $8,800 FD)

Najee Harris under 10% ownership? What doesn’t this guy do? If the Steelers end up playing from behind, he’s extremely active in the passing game, which bodes well for us on DraftKings. If the Steelers get a lead early and sit on the ball a bit more, Najee Harris will get 20+ carries. If he can get into the box, he can break this slate wide open.

Darrell Henderson Jr. ($5,800 DK / $7,300 FD)

Stupid pricing on DraftKings and likely will not be an under the radar play by any means, but if you need salary relief with 18+ fantasy point upside, look no further than Henderson here against a banged up Packers’ defense that grades 26th against the run (DVOA).

Javonte Williams ($5,200 DK / $5,700 FD)

If you have been with Win Daily for more multiple NFL DFS seasons, you know I always love rookie running backs after a bye-week. Pair that with my love for picking on the NFL’s worst run defense(32nd in run defense DVOA) in the Los Angeles Chargers and you have yourself a 5% owned lottery ticket this weekend… who also is a direct pivot off of Miles Sanders chalk.

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, James Robinson

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($8,300 DK / $8,100 FD)

Please see the Week 12 Cash Game Checkdown for more on Justin Jefferson.

DeVonta Smith ($6,400 DK / $6,400 FD)

To add on to the leverage against Miles Sanders, I certainly have to have interest in DeVonta Smith at 3-5% ownership. Incredibly affordable on FanDuel and allows you to get your exposure to TB/IND or whatever game it is you’re interested in the most, but still an excellent NFL DFS GPP play on DraftKings. DeVonta has recorded a ~30% target share over the past few weeks and should have no issue burning James Bradberry on a deep ball or two to smash his value.

Van Jefferson Jr. ($4,900 DK / $5,400 FD)

Van Jefferson is still the big-play, value wide receiver for the Los Angeles Rams, not Odell Beckham Jr. Although we’re very likely to see a much higher snap share for Odell as opposed to what he saw in Week 10 for his debut, Van Jefferson won’t leave the field. If Van Jefferson can get lined up with Green Bay’s Rasul Douglas, Van should be able to put on a show whenever the ball isn’t going to Henderson or Cooper Kupp.

Dez Fitzpatrick ($3,200 DK / $5,000 FD)

The rookie out of Louisville is only in this article as a source of “punt-value” so please temper your expectations and do not pair him with another low-floor, punt play… that is a recipe for disaster. I really love his big body and athleticism, something that Chester Rogers and Nick Westbrook really don’t possess. His route running did get him in a bit of trouble last week causing Tannehill to throw one of his many interceptions but, on the bright side, Fitzpatrick did lead this wide receiver core in snap share. In my opinion, Fitzpatrick is the only thing worth watching on this Tennessee offense right now.

Honorable Mention: Adam Thielen, Michael Pittman Jr., Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, Diontae Johnson, Jaylen Waddle, Deebo Samuel

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

This week, I’m just going to list my player pool at the tight-end position with a little summary as to why I’m interested.

George Kittle – sub 10% ownership with extreme touchdown equity in a game I think goes well over the total. Also a nice run-back to my Minnesota exposure.
Kyle Pitts – arguably the highest upside at the position going up against a horrid Jacksonville defense that grades 30th in DVOA against the tight-ends. Perfect little mini-stack to my Laviska Shenault lineups or Trevor Lawrence builds.
Rob Gronkowski – Super popular, but way underpriced. Great way to get cheap exposure to the highest total game on the slate.
Evan Engram – Literally everyone is injured for New York’s pass catchers. Easy run-back to Miles Sanders builds or Philly passing game lineups.
Jack Doyle – one of my favorite “gross” plays on the slate. Michael Pittman is going to be heavy, heavy chalk and for good reason. A great way to get different is to pivot down to Jack Doyle or add Jack Doyle in with Michael Pittman for a TB/IND game-stack.

Honorable Mention: Dan Arnold, Noah Fant, Mike Gesicki, Tyler Higbee

3 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks: Week 11 NFL DFS GPP

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 11 NFL DFS GPP slate! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 11 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This is honestly gong to be a very condensed week for me with most of my interest in those two afternoon shootouts. Now, let’s get into it.

Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:

DAL/KC
CIN/LV
HOU/TEN (pending weather)

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow ($6,600 DK / $7,400 FD)

If you read the Cash Game Checkdown, you are aware of my love for this Bengals offense after the bye-week. The Raiders’ secondary is full of second-string talent and with extra days of preparation, I expect both of these offenses to go wild and produce a significant amount of fantasy points and HOPEFULLY, keep up the pace with Dallas and Kansas City. Burrow is my favorite quarterback play on this slate.

Key Pairing(s): Tee Higgins, Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Mixon, C.J. Uzomah
Key Run-back(s): Darren Waller, Bryan Edwards, Hunter Renfrow, Josh Jacobs, Zay Jones

Ryan Tannehill ($6,700 DK / $7,800 FD)

There’s not a whole lot on this slate that I like outside of Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, and Joe Burrow. Having said that, Ryan Tannehill grades out as an excellent 1-3% owned NFL DFS GPP quarterback due to the red-zone rushing upside and the condensed target-share that is easy to stack. I don’t love the play, but will have a bit of Tannehill this weekend if the rain holds off. Be sure to check the weather before moving forward with Tannehill.

Key Pairing(s): A.J. Brown, D’Onta Foreman
Key Run-back(s): Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott ($7,700 DK / $8,500 FD)

With all of the ownership going down to the value running backs, that leaves Ezekiel Elliott alone on an island with a 5% ownership projection. There is simply way too much touchdown equity in Zeke’s corner this weekend and he will be a core play for me in all formats. The late news of Tyron Smith being out, it gets me a bit less excited, but still in on Elliott.

Joe Mixon ($7,600 DK / $7,600 FD)

Way too cheap on FanDuel but still a very interesting play on DraftKings. FanDuel clearly messed this pricing up because the AETY Model shows that his proper price-tag should be right around $7.5K on DraftKings and in the mid-low $8K range on FanDuel. Similar to Elliott, Joe Mixon has the highest touchdown equity in one of my favorite games to stack.

D’Onta Foreman ($4,900 DK / $6,200 FD)

While everyone flocks to Jeff Wilson and Mark Ingram for their value running backs, D’Onta Foreman is quietly in a great spot with Jeremy McNichols out with a concussion. The sportsbooks seem to agree as they have him close to even money to score a touchdown and a rushing prop of over 55 yards. It’s not sexy, but on DraftKings specifically, that price-tag allows you to do a lot and more importantly, in a different way than those eating all of the chalk value.

Honorable Mention: Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, Tony Pollard, Antonio Gibson

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

To no surprise, I’m incredibly heavy on the main pass-catchers for the top two games on my list to start the article. This week, I’m just going to list off my receiver player pool in order of my GPP exposure. Tune into the livestream tomorrow morning at 11AM EST for further updates.

Tyreek Hill
CeeDee Lamb
Tee Higgins
Ja’Maar Chase
Michael Gallup
Bryan Edwards (nice 1-2% owned piece of that game)
Adam Thielen (easy run-back to the A.J. Dillon chalk)
A.J. Brown
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
DK Metcalf (no one is playing a Seattle stack this week)
Deebo Samuel (best matchup on the slate, just hope JAX can keep it close)
Zay Jones (min price 0% owned punt and will see a lot of Eli Apple. Don’t expect much volume but a big play is extremely possible to smash the $3K price-tag)

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

Similar to the above, I’m going to very concentrated at the tight-end position with the likes of Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. Kelce’s ownership sitting around 10% is comical and my main angle of attack is to be incredibly overweight with him or Waller, but if not, I’m very interested in the below…

George Kittle ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD)

Picking on the Jaguars pass defense is usually a profitable move and the fact that Kittle is likely sub-5% owned is an excellent pivot if you’re not on the Kelce or Waller train. The Jaguars grade 26th in DVOA against the tight-end and 31st overall against the pass in general, yikes! A George Kittle drag-route touchdown will be incoming.

Dalton Schultz ($4,600 DK / $6,000 FD)

As much as Amari Cooper helps out Michael Gallup, the AETY Model expects a significant boost up for Dalton Schultz on the inside of this Kansas City defense. As good of a player people think Tyrann Mathieu is, he really struggles in coverage and will see a fair share of the talented pass-catching, Dalton Schultz. Again, this game is loaded with fantasy appeal and chalk everywhere, but Schultz is going to be sub-5% in ownership and primed up for a higher-output game like he was used to earlier this season.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Conklin, John Bates

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 11 – Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Welcome back to the Week 11 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown after an absolute SMASH yet again in Week 10 for the Win Daily cash game crew! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 10, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

DAL/KC is obviously the game of the week and you can get plenty of exposure to it through all of the value that’s opened up this week.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($7,600 DK / $8,300 FD)

This game has fantasy-point heaven written all over it with a total of 56-points. We don’t need to talk much about Patrick Mahomes besides it was refreshing to finally see this offense back in business last week as Mahomes threw for over 400 yards and five touchdowns!

Dak Prescott ($7,200 DK / $8,400 FD)

Similar to Mahomes, getting signal-caller exposure to this afternoon hammer is something that will likely be crucial for NFL DFS Cash Game lineups. No need to get into more detail other than the good news that Tyron Smith is back in action. This is going to be a fun game.

*Update: Tyron is OUT. Still love Dak, but leaning Mahomes or Burrow only for cash.

Joe Burrow ($6,600 DK / $7,400 FD)

On the cheaper side, the AETY Model absolutely loves Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense as a whole in Week 11 as they come off of their bye week to visit the Las Vegas Raiders (22nd ranked pass defense DVOA). I said it on Twitter a couple weeks ago and I have to trust the system, especially when Zac Taylor is starting to play more up-tempo and pass-heavy like we’re used to seeing. This is an excellent spot for Burrow to put up a high-floor, cash game worthy outing.

Honorable Mention: Josh Allen

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($8,200 DK / $8,400 FD)

Dalvin Cook against the Packers’ is always a smash spot, as his career splits are absolutely disgusting. Green Bay is notorious for struggling against the run (24th in run defense DVOA) and despite the Vikings’ not being nearly as efficient on the ground as they have been in years’ past, Dalvin Cook is arguably the highest floor running back on this slate. My only concern is how slow the Packers’ play on offense, so I could see a path to an average Cook outing, but the floor is there for cash consideration.

Ezekiel Elliott ($7,700 DK / $8,500 FD)

If you’re not playing Dak Prescott in cash, find a way to get to Ezekiel Elliott. Kansas City’s run defense is still awful despite some improvements and more health on the defensive line over the past couple of weeks, but no one has more touchdown equity in the highest total game on the slate than Elliott. With Tyron Smith back, Elliott should be poised for another monster fantasy output.

A.J. Dillon ($6,200 DK / $7,000 FD)

With no Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon is likely to be 80% owned in NFL DFS cash game formats. Lock him in against the Vikings’ 28th ranked run defense (DVOA).

Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,100 DK / $5,000 FD)

Assuming Eli Mitchell is OUT, Jeff Wilson is the freesquare of the week. We ALWAYS love a Kyle Shanahan running back who won’t be splitting time (ah la, our early season love for Eli Mitchell) and will continue to do so this week… especially against the Jaguars 28th ranked defense in terms of overall DVOA. The 49ers have a 26-point implied team total that should give us significant touchdown equity with Jeff Wilson.

Mark Ingram ($5,400 DK / $6,800 FD)

With CEH back, Ingram is now the cheap value RB3 next to Jeff Wilson. Taking Darrel Williams out of this article.

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb, D’Onta Foreman

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill ($8,200 DK / $8,500 FD)

He’s expensive and likely not necessary for your cash game lineup, but at 20-25% ownership projection for cash game contests, Tyreek Hill is the type of player than can carry you to the pay-line or bury you if you fade him and he has a ceiling game. Hill has had a consistent 27% target-share average over the last two months and will continue to get his as Andy Reid schemes Tyreek Hill open on every drive this Sunday afternoon.

A.J. Brown ($7,700 DK / $7,200 FD)

Way too cheap on FanDuel for A.J. Brown and his league-leading, 32% target-share since Week 6. Terrance Mitchell and Desmond King are in for a long, long day trying to keep up with the YAC man himself, A.J. Brown.

Tee Higgins ($5,400 DK / $6,500 FD)

Higgins is likely to be the highest owned wide receiver on this slate and for good reason. This matchup against the Raiders’ secondary is primed up for a man-coverage beater like Tee Higgins. Eat the chalk/value here and move on. Ja’Maar Chase is also in an incredible spot, but I’ll take the savings with Higgins.

Michael Gallup ($4,200 DK / $5,400 FD)

If Higgins is not the highest-owned wide receiver in NFL DFS cash game lineups, I would bet that Michael Gallup is. If we want to get multiple avenues of DAL/KC exposure, Gallup is an excellent value freesquare now that Amari Cooper has been put on the COVID-19 injury reserve.

Honorable Mention: Rashod Bateman, Ja’Maar Chase, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Keeping this one simple. With the significant value on this slate, I’m playing one of the two stud tight-ends.

Travis Kelce ($7,100 DK / $7,300 FD)

Darren Waller ($6,100 DK / $6,700 FD)

Honorable Mention: George Kittle, Dalton Schultz, Dan Arnold, John Bates (only if he is the only piece of “fat” in your build)

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Cleveland Browns
Philadelphia Eagles
Carolina Panthers
Seattle Seahawks
Washington Football Team

3 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks: Week 9 NFL DFS GPP

brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 9 NFL DFS GPP slate! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 9 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups. After a MONSTER Week 8, let’s roll right into another juicy slate!

*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will not be an article where I write about Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.

Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:

LAC/PHI
MIN/BAL
GB/KC
HOU/MIA

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert ($7,000 DK / $7,600 FD)

Herbert season is officially back for me this week despite the let-down in Week 8 when New England completely took the air out of the ball and ran it down the Chargers’ throat. Honestly, every team should adapt that same game-plan against this putrid Chargers’ run defense, but I don’t see Nick Sirianni sticking to a run game in a game that will be high in pace and back and forth in scoring. Justin Herbert grades number one in the AETY Model in expected passing yards this weekend and he also offers us significant leverage on the 35% ownership tag on running back Austin Ekeler.

Ekeler can certainly have a great game here… I’m not saying you should fade him, but if his production comes via the pass like it usually does, Herbert will correlate well with that ownership on Ekeler. If the Chargers can get ahead early, this gamescript is going to bode well for a shootout and I’m all for it with Justin Herbert projected for 3-5% ownership. You can make a sexy game-stack with some of the pairings/run-backs below.

Key Pairing(s): Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams
Key Run-back(s): Dallas Goedert, Devonta Smith, Kenneth Gainwell (yes, the guy 30% of the field played last week, lol. Now is the time to play him at 1% ownership in a gamescript that doesn’t include Philadelphia being up by 40 points).

Patrick Mahomes ($7,800 DK / $8,500 FD)

I’m not in love with Mahomes this week but I’ll always go heavily overweight on Patrick Mahomes when he’s under 10% in ownership projection. The reason I do not love this spot as much as I want to is due to the Packers’ incredibly low pace of play… with Aaron Rodgers. With Rodgers now out, I cannot imagine they speed up the offense whatsoever as they lean on Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.

Having said that, I just can’t envision a world where Mahomes doesn’t light the world on fire in this matchup and declare on the FOX Game of the Week that the Chiefs’ offense is just fine.

Key Pairing(s): Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Darrel Williams
Key Run-back(s): Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon, Davante Adams

Tyrod Taylor ($5,000 / $6,900 FD)

Likely a DraftKings ONLY play for me, but Tyrod Taylor is returning under center for the Houston Texans to take on Miami and their 26th ranked passing defense. It’s absolutely gross, but a semi-dual-threat quarterback at $5K against a terrible defense (and a game with a relatively high total) is something I’m interested in this week. I personally will be pairing him with Nico Collins and using a Miami run-back due to the lack of defense on both sides of the field this week. If you can stomach that build, you can afford the world in the rest of your lineup.

Key Pairing(s): Nico Collins, Brandin Cooks
Key Run-back(s): Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, Myles Gaskin

Honorable Mention: Kirk Cousins, Jalen Hurts

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($7,700 DK / $8,800 FD)

Dalvin Cook grades out as the third best running back in Week 9 on the AETY Model and will be a massive focal point of this Vikings’ offense as they try to keep Lamar Jackson off of the field. In a game with the highest total on the slate and the highest owned quarterback on the slate (Lamar Jackson), why does no one want to play Dalvin Cook on the other side? Baltimore’s running defense is nothing like it used to be.

Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD)

There’s no leverage in this play at all as he’s likely the highest owned running back and yes, usually I never write about the high-chalk players in this article, but for clarity, Ezekiel Elliott is my highest rostered player in Week 9. I’m in love with this matchup against a Denver team that appears to have thrown in the surrender towel. In addition, La’el Collins returns to the Dallas offensive line… let’s roll.

Contrarian Values:

Zack Moss
Devontae Booker
Kenneth Gainwell
A.J. Dillon
Darrel Williams
Eli Mitchell (if Jeff Wilson is inactive)

Honorable Mention: Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($7,500 DK / $7,600 FD) / Adam Thielen ($6,900 DK / $7,400 FD)

Extremely affordable on FanDuel but still in play on DraftKings. Similar to the Dalvin Cook write-up, NO ONE is playing Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen. The Baltimore secondary is trash and currently grades 23rd in pass defense DVOA. I usually prefer to focus on Thielen against man coverage (Baltimore’s tendency) and Jefferson against zone coverage, but they’re both in an excellent gamescript at borderline zero ownership.

Keenan Allen ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD)

Like Ezekiel Elliott, I’m just adding Keenan Allen in the article for the transparency. Allen is a core play for me this weekend as I always pick on the inside of the Philadelphia secondary. He makes a perfect pairing for my favorite GPP quarterback in Justin Herbert and grades out as a top-six value in the AETY Model.

Jerry Jeudy ($5,000 DK / $5,800 FD)

Hello, Mr. Jerry Jeudy. We’re going to pray on the recency bias of DFS players and go at Jerry Jeudy the week after he was 15-20% owned and let down the DFS community. The best part of this play is that he correlates perfectly on the other side of my love for Ezekiel Elliott and also is massive leverage over a 40% owned Broncos tight-end, Albert “O” chalk week.

I’m not saying Albert “O” is a bad play by any means, but if you can find a way to pivot to Jerry Jeudy on the other side of your Elliott builds, you’re not going to regret it. Jourdan Lewis is one of the weaker spots on this Dallas defense and look for Teddy Bridgewater to use the middle of the field a lot on Sunday as they play catch-up. As much as Noah Fant helps Albert “O”, this is still a significant bump up to Jerry Jeudy at 2-5% ownership… Leverage City!

Honorable Mention: Mecole Hardman, Nico Collins, Mike Williams, Deebo Samuel

Tight Ends

Honestly, my tight-end pool is directly from the Week 9 Cash Game Checkdown. My priorities in GPP would go as follows:

Travis Kelce ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)
Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DK / $6,200 FD)
Darren Waller ($6,200 DK / $6,800 FD)
Mike Gesicki ($4,900 DK / $6,500 FD)
Tyler Conklin ($3,000 DK / $5,200 FD)

4 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks: Week 8 NFL DFS GPP

DFSGhost 4 years ago

written by DFSGhost

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 8 NFL DFS GPP slate! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 8 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will not be an article where I write about Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.

Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:

TEN/IND
CAR/ATL
PHI/DET
NE/LAC
TB/NO

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert ($7,300 DK / $7,800 FD)

Next to Tom Brady and the Bucs, the AETY Model projects Herbert and the Chargers to continue to play their up-paced, pass-heavy offense with a total of 40 pass attempts. Volume is king. In my opinion, Herbert is the second best quarterback on this slate (behind Josh Allen) and looks to be coming in around 5% in total ownership. With Austin Ekeler banged up (if he even plays), the Chargers will need to lean on Herbert and these talented pass catchers to win a tight-projected game at home against the Patriots.

Carson Wentz ($5,700 DK / $7,200 FD)

Surprisingly, the highest total on this slate features two of the heavier run-offenses in the NFL with the Titans at Colts (total of 51) but the AETY Model agrees that this game has a lot of touchdown equity and potential for a solid pace. Wentz has starting to come on lately and the Colts’ offensive line appears to be 100% healthy and you know I always find an angle to pick on the Titans’ secondary, so here we go Carson.

I’m still skeptical this game turns quite run heavy and the clock dwindles, but going with Wentz offers me a lot of savings for the rest of my build, especially if you stack him with Michael Pittman who’s priced like a fringe WR2.

Honorable Mention: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Jameis Winston, Sam Darnold

Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($8,900 DK / $10,500 FD)

King Henry under 10% in ownership and under $9K in salary on DraftKings? What a time to be alive. The Colts’ run defense grades #1 in run defense DVOA but just gave up over 100-yards on the ground to Eli Mitchell. It’s not the tastiest of matchups, but it’s a 10% owned Derrick Henry at an affordable price-tag in a matchup with the highest total on the slate.

Nick Chubb ($6,800 DK / $8,000 FD)

Nick Chubb is going to be under 4% in total ownership on both FanDuel and DraftKings this weekend despite no Kareem Hunt to take away significant snaps and more importantly, offensive tackle Jack Conklin is back. This Browns’ offensive line is the best in the business and 100% healthy for the first time since Week 1… when Chubb went for over 100 all-purpose yards and two scores (with Kareem Hunt playing over 47% of the snaps). Light it up, Nick Chubb!

Eli Mitchell ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD)

As you noticed in the Cash Game Checkdown, I’m locking in Eli Mitchell. Simply way too cheap and offers me many different avenues to roster the studs being wrote up in this article.

Honorable Mention: Damien Harris, Alvin Kamara

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs ($8,100 DK / $7,300 FD)

Absurdly priced on FanDuel and likely to be insane chalk (for good reason), but on DraftKings, I’m making it a priority to play Diggs in lineups that I can afford him as he’s coming in under 10% in ownership. Stefon Diggs is a route-running extraordinaire and should be primed up for his first blow-up game of 2021 at home against the Miami Dolphins’ man-coverage.

DJ Moore ($7,200 DK / $7,700 FD)

What more do we need to see from Atlanta’s 30th ranked pass defense (DVOA)? They consistently get torched and this is a perfect buy-back spot for Moore who has one of the highest expected target shares in the NFL. Like most weeks, this game against the Falcons has significant shootout potential.

Keenan Allen ($6,500 DK / $6,900 FD)

I’ll go back to the well on my boy Keenan Allen to pair with one of my favorite quarterbacks on the slate, Justin Herbert. If this game plays at a high pace, this is an excellent price for a low-owned Keenan Allen who should have his way with Jalen Mills on the inside of the New England secondary.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($3,900 DK / $5,100 FD)

As much as everyone loves this Philadelphia/Detroit matchup, no one is talking about pass catchers for Detroit other than D’Andre Swift. I personally wish Kalif Raymond was a bit cheaper on DraftKings like he is on FanDuel, but I simply can’t afford him on most DraftKings builds.

St. Brown is going to be my Hail Mary, 1% owned wide receiver who offers my builds a lot of value to pay up elsewhere. While no one is likely to go back to the rookie slot receiver after a zero-target game last week, I’m confident this is a big time spot for St. Brown (who has averaged a 70% snap share over the past four weeks) against the inside of the Philadelphia secondary.

Honorable Mention: AJ Brown, Diontae Johnson, Kalif Raymond, Laviska Shenault, Tre’Quan Smith

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson ($5,400 DK / $6,200 FD)

It’s a bit of a nasty tight-end slate and as much as I love Kyle Pitts, my main focus this week inside the numbers is T.J. Hockenson. Again, as much as the DFS community loves this game and hosts most of the chalk players on the slate, no one is talking about any Detroit Lions outside of Swift. Other thank Kyle Pitts, Hockenson is the only tight-end the AETY Model projects for over a 20% target share and 25% red-zone share.

Honorable Mention: Kyle Pitts, Jared Cook, Dallas Goedert, Tyler Higbee, Mike Gesicki

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NFL DFS Week 8 – Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Welcome back to the Week 8 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 8, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Now that the Bye weeks are here, the player pool is a bit more narrow. There are a still ton of great value plays at the Wide Receiver and Running Back positions this week, which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
Cash Game Chalk Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Jalen Hurts (20%), Darrell Henderson Jr (40%), Kenneth Gainwell (25%), James Robinson (20%), Chris Godwin (25%), Brandin Cooks (20%), Cooper Kupp (20%), Calvin Ridley (20%), Dallas Goedert (30%)
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ($8,100 DK / $8,800 FD)

On a slate with no Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes, the top-tier starts and ends with Josh Allen (honorable mention, Justin Herbert). The Buffalo Bills rank third on the Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool, 10th in passing offense efficiency, and first on the slate in implied team totals. Miami’s secondary has struggled this season and rank 26th in pass defense DVOA… there’s simply no safer play at the quarterback position than Josh Allen.

Jalen Hurts ($7,200 DK / $8,400 FD)

On DraftKings, if you need the savings, pivot down to the Week 8 NFL DFS chalk quarterback, Jalen Hurts. The Detroit defense is dreadful, grading 27th in overall defense DVOA and with no Miles Sanders, we should see a bit more rushing than we usually do from Jalen Hurts (he rushes a lot as is). It doesn’t matter what Hurts does with his arm, this dude always finds a way to ~25 fantasy points and that should continue this week in what should be a back and forth game with Detroit.

Honorable Mention: Matt Stafford, Justin Herbert

Running Backs

D’Andre Swift ($7,100 DK / $7,900 FD)

Swift is an absolute stud and truthfully, I was a bit down on him heading into season-long drafts this summer. Boy, was I wrong. His usage is through the roof and trails T.J. Hockenson by one total target for the team lead in the passing game. The thing I like about Swift the most is the slight increase in usage on the ground. What started as a (give or take) 55/45 split in favor of Jamaal Williams has now turned in favor of D’Andre Swift. Detroit knows they have to give this kid the ball early and often if they want to win a football game. Look for Swift to do damage in this higher-total game against Philadelphia and their 29th ranked run defense (DVOA).

Darrell Henderson Jr. ($6,500 DK / $7,700 FD)

Henderson was a bit of a let-down last week as the stone-chalk running back on the slate but, despite a negative early gamescript, he still had 18 total touches. Henderson is in a prime bounce-back spot here against Houston and their 30th ranked run defense (DVOA) as a 15-point favorite.

Eli Mitchell ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD)

Way too cheap for a lead running back in one of the more efficient running schemes in the NFL. I’ll likely be pressing the lock-button on Mitchell in all forms of NFL DFS in Week 8 as the 49ers visit a Bears team without Khalil Mack and possibly Akiem Hicks.

Honorable Mention: James Robinson, Chubba Hubbard, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp ($9,000 DK / $9,200 FD)

Personally, I don’t see my build allowing me to fit Cooper Kupp and that scares the hell out of me. What more do we need to see out of Kupp before we just lock him in each week? I’d like to believe he’ll come crashing down to earth, especially at the $9K price-point, but I totally understand if your first move is to lock-in Kupp and then start building.

Chris Godwin ($6,400 DK / $7,400 FD)

With Antonio Brown doubtful for this game, let’s give another look at Chris Godwin who will be the main target in the most pass-happy offense in the NFL. This is a tougher matchup, but an expected 29% target share with no Brown in the lineup and a matchup on the inside against Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is a great spot to invest.

DeVonta Smith ($5,200 DK / $6,200 FD)

It’s clear that DeVonta Smith is by far the number one target in the Eagles’ passing attack. We’re getting a number one wideout at mid-tier, WR2 pricing in a cake matchup. This game is going to be a favorite for DFS players this weekend and that should start with DeVonta Smith or D’Andre Swift.

A.J. Brown ($6,900 DK / $7,600 FD)

Over the past three games, A.J. Brown has surpassed a 30% target share… volume is king in NFL DFS cash games and there’s not many on this slate who have the volume and big play ability A.J. Brown has on a weekly basis. Julio Jones is OUT and Derrick Henry is likely to still get his 20 touches, but the Colts grade first in run defense DVOA. Brown is in an excellent spot to continue his hot streak against a weak Indianapolis secondary.

Honorable Mention: DJ Moore, Stefon Diggs, ~~Calvin Ridley~~, Michael Pittman Jr., Tee Higgins

Tight Ends

The tight-end position is a bit scarce this weekend without Kelce, Andrews, and Darren Waller. I’ll make my list a bit different this week simply off of the price-points.

Pay Up: Kyle Pitts ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD)

Values: Dallas Goedert ($4,700 DK / $5,900 FD) / T.J. Hockenson ($5,400 DK / $6,200 FD) / Jared Cook ($3,400 DK ONLY)

Punt: Dan Arnold ($2,800 DK ONLY)

Honorable Mention: Noah Fant, Ricky Seals-Jones, Mike Gesicki

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

Cincinatti Bengals

Denver Broncos

Buffalo Bills

Cleveland Browns

Seattle Seahawks

Washington Football Team

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Stix Picks: Week 7 NFL DFS GPP

brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 7 NFL DFS GPP slate! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 7 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

*Having said that, I saw a lot of lineups last week in the Discord strictly with the GPP article players. PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will not be an article where I write about Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.

Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:

KC/TEN
GB/WAS
ATL/MIA
CHI/TB

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan ($5,300 DK / $7,300 FD) [Projected Ownership: 2-5%]

As much as I’m not a fan of Matt Ryan, this is an excellent spot for the Falcons offense (that welcomes back Calvin Ridley) traveling to Miami to face their 26th ranked pass defense (in terms of DVOA) and a banged up Xavien Howard. The AETY Model projects this game to be quite up-pace and offer plenty of volume for Matt Ryan and this Falcons’ passing attack. The Falcons have a relatively high implied team total and also grade 7th on the Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool from Win Daily. The Falcons’s rank dead last in run offense DVOA and simply have no efficiency on the ground… If they’re going to put up big numbers, it’ll be via the pass.

I prefer Ryan’s price-tag on DraftKings but he’s certainly viable on FanDuel as well. As I stress on a weekly basis, the “stack-ability” with Matt Ryan is simple: Calvin Ridley and/or Kyle Pitts. I guess I’ll give an honorable mention to Ghost’s boy, Cordarrelle Patterson.

Aaron Rodgers ($7,500 DK / $7,900 FD) [Projected Ownership: 2-5%]

If you’re in the Win Daily Sports Discord, you know I’m all aboard the Aaron Rogers train this week against Washington’s awful secondary (28th in pass defense DVOA). The AETY Model absolutely loves this Packers’ offense this week grading them 4th in total offensive touchdown equity this weekend and also projects Rodgers’ for over 280-passing yards despite most sportsbooks having the prop around 250 yards… I’m expecting Rodgers to come out firing and light up the Week 7 NFL DFS GPP slate, second to only Patrick Mahomes.

Stack him with Davante Adams and hell, you can play Aaron Jones as well. If you want to full game-stack it, Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Ricky Seals-Jones, and even J.D. McKissic make a lot of sense here depending on the theory of your lineup build.

*The AETY Model absolutely loves this Packers’ offense this week grading them 4th in total offensive touchdown equity*

Tom Brady ($7,700 DK / $8,000 FD) [Projected Ownership: 2-4%]

Yes, there is a ton of blowout potential with the Bucs hosting the Bears, but that doesn’t seem to negatively affect Brady as Bucs are the most efficient passing offenses in the NFL, grading 1st in pass offense DVOA. In addition, they are averaging over four pass attempts per game than the next leading team. It’s simple, Tom Brady is on a mission in 2021 and Bruce Arians knows this offense is at its best when wearing down opponents defenses with 40+ pass attempts per game. All they do is pass and they’re damn good at it.

Now that Antonio Brown is ruled out, the “stack-ability” with Brady is a lot more predictable. It is Mike Evans and Chris Godwin… both are too cheap on all DFS outlets this weekend.

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Stafford

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Aaron Jones ($7,500 DK / $8,500 FD) [Projected Ownership: 4-6%]

If I’m not playing Aaron Rodgers paired with Davante Adams, I’ll be making a priority to find a way to roster Aaron Jones. This is a bit more tougher matchup on the ground against Washington’s 12th ranked run defense (in terms of DVOA) but with how much they struggle through the air, they’re incredible susceptible to multiple touchdown (seven opposing running back touchdowns in the past three games) games to opposing running backs. In addition, they graded 3rd to worst in pass defense DVOA to opposing running backs. Aaron Jones can fill it up in all aspects of the game and should be primed for a 20+ point outing here in Week 7.

Derrick Henry ($9,200 DK / $11,000 FD) [Projected Ownership: 15%]

It’s 2021, the year of Derrick Henry. It’s all systems go for Henry in this matchup against 31st ranked run defense. If you can afford him, he’s an obvious lock-play again this week unless you think the Chiefs’ get well ahead early (which is certainly possible) and gamescript block Derrick Henry a bit.

James Conner ($5,600 DK / $6,500 FD) [Projected Ownership: 2-3%]

Always attack home running backs when they’re a double-digit favorite. We’ve seen Conner provide 3x value in similar gamescripts when the Cardinals are dominating. I don’t see how Houston will be able to put up much of a fight against the 1st place Arizona Cardinals, and neither do the bookmakers as Arizona is an 18-point favorite. The AETY Model grades James Conner as the second highest running back touchdown equity, just behind King Henry. As long as Arizona gets ahead, James Conner will be in for a heavy workload against the 29th ranked run defense (DVOA).

Honorable Mention: Darrell Henderson, Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson, Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700 DK / $8,000 FD) [Projected Ownership: 5%]

Revenge narrative for Mr. Tulloch in full effect! DeAndre Hopkins is priced down to (-150) to score a touchdown at some books and you can bet your ass he’s getting in the box at least once as the Cardinals host Hopkins’ old squad, the Houston Texans. The Cardinals have the highest adjusted expected team total on the slate so, as much as I love James Conner, this spot supports the narrative of D-Hop getting his as well.

Terry McLaurin ($6,500 DK / $7,200 FD) [Projected Ownership: 4-8%]

As much as I love the Packers’ offense in this spot, in theory, I have to like the Washington Football Team playmakers who benefit from a “play from behind” gamescript. I’ll be adding on to my Packers’ stacks with a run-back or two from the Football Team and there’s no better buy-low spot than Terry McLaurin. McLaurin was big-time chalk last week and let everyone down. I’m 100% going right back to McLaurin here against a Packers’ secondary unit missing their top corner, Jaire Alexander in addition to Darnell Savage and Kevin King highly questionable.

Mike Evans ($6,500 DK / $7,100) [5%] & Chris Godwin ($5,900 DK / $6,700 FD) [10%]

If you read the Cash Game Checkdown then you know that I’m likely locking in Chris Godwin to my cash lineup. On the outside of Godwin, Mike Evans is in as good, if not a better spot than Chris Godwin and has some eye-popping short odds at (-120) to score a touchdown. We know the volume will be there for both of these wide receivers in the best passing offense in the NFL that will throw the ball 40+ times regardless of the gamescript.

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, AJ Brown, Ja’Maar Chase, Allen Robinson, Quez Watkins

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

Darren Waller ($6,700 DK / $6,800 FD) [Projected Ownership: 3-5%]

On FanDuel, this price is criminal and Waller will likely be closer to 10% owned over there, but on DraftKings, the ownership is crazy low despite everyone playing Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, and Devonta Smith. This an excellent afternoon leverage play in an up-paced game where all the chalk is on one side of the game.

*Sounds like he’s doubtful, moving strictly to the plays below.

Honorable Mention: Travis Kelce, Kyle Pitts, Mike Gesicki, Cole Kmet

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