FanDuel DFS

Welcome back for the Conference Championship NFL DFS slate breakdown! This week, it’s a very condensed, 2-game slate. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

• Lamar Jackson ($7,700 DK / $8,800 FD) – Highest floor, highest ceiling on the slate at the Quarterback position. The lower game total and stout defenses on both sides of the ball worry me a bit for the top-tier price and ownership, but he’s the safest play on the board for cash games and offers the world of upside with his legs for GPPs.
  
  Stack Options: “Naked”, Zay Flowers, Isaiah Likely, Mark Andrews
  Bring-Back Options: Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco
  
• Brock Purdy ($6,500 DK / $7,800 FD) – Brock Purdy will be my guy this week in GPPs. This is the highest I’ve seen the market be in terms of his passing yards and that’s something I do not take lightly. The AETY Model projects Purdy for over two touchdown passes and a field day with his arm against a pass-funnel Detroit defense. I’m all about it if you want to get a little different and it’s prime leverage off of Christian McCaffrey if you can stomach a fade there.
  
  Stack Options: Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle
  Bring-Back Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta

NFL DFS Running Backs

• Christian McCaffrey ($9,000 DK / $11,000 FD) – Expensive as hell per usual, but the best play on the board at any position.
  
• Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,400 DK / $7,000 FD) – My motto: on small slates, play the studs. Jahmyr Gibbs is one of the most talented football players in the NFL and somehow has a price discount from last week. He’s their go-to guy in a run-first offense and the many route runner out of the backfield if Detroit starts chasing points.
  
• Isiah Pacheco ($6,400 DK / $7,500 FD) – A three-down back with significant goal-line touch equity in a somewhat positive matchup on the ground. I fear Baltimore’s pass defense and the Chiefs’ struggles through the air way.
  
• Gus Edwards ($5,500 DK / $5,800 FD) – It looks like Justice Hill is going to draw a significant amount of ownership due to the heavy workload and PPR floor, but I’ll take the lower owned back with significant touchdown equity on a two-game slate.

Honorable Mention: Justice Hill

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

• Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200 / $9,200 FD) – Top priced and top projected wide receiver in terms of volume. We all know who Amon-Ra is at this point and his importance to this Detroit offense. If there’s any matchup to exploit against one of the best pass-defenses in the NFL, it’s on the inside with Deommodore Lenoir.
  
• Deebo Samuel ($7,300 DK / $8,000 FD) – Somehow, Deebo Samuel is good to go on Sunday despite the prop markets pricing him like a decoy. No one is going to play Deebo and we’ll need to take some sort of educated risk in GPP lineups on such a small slate. I don’t love it, but it’s probably a move I’m going to make.
  
• Brandon Aiyuk ($6,900 DK / $7,900 FD) – In cash, you’re playing Brandon Aiyuk. Simple as that. He has the highest floor of any receiver not named Amon-Ra St. Brown and has plenty of upside to break this slate. He’s going to draw a ton of ownership and should be able to feast in play action against the Lions’ depleted secondary.
  
• Zay Flowers ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD) – Would much rather play runners against the Chiefs’ but the price on Zay Flowers and his importance to the Ravens’ offense always warrants roster consideration.
  
• Josh Reynolds ($4,000 DK ONLY) & Jameson Williams ($3,700 DK / $5,000 FD) – The theme of the NFL Playoff DFS slates have been “which punt receiver from Detroit is going to hit value?” I’ll take the discount on Jameson Williams as the routes ran data is always there and he is obviously a better talent than Josh Reynolds, but Reynolds and Goff have great red-zone chemistry that I will not discount.

Honorable Mention: Rashee Rice, Rashod Bateman

Tight-Ends

• George Kittle ($5,200 DK / $6,600 FD) – The best tight-end on the slate with a massive ceiling against the Lions’ zone and man coverage schemes. There are too many weapons for the 49ers for the Lions’ to take Kittle out of this game.
  
• Isaiah Likely ($4,300 DK / $5,400 FD) – Mark Andrews will not get a full workload and with the weak receiving core and lack of size outside for Baltimore, Likely is going to be a factor in the passing game regardless of Andrews’ status.

Honorable Mention: Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Lamar Jackson
• Christian McCaffrey
• Justice Hill
• Brandon Aiyuk
• Jameson Williams

Stix Picks GPP Core (DK)

• Brock Purdy
• Deebo Samuel
• George Kittle
• Isiah Likely

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

Welcome back for the Divisional Round Weekend NFL DFS slate breakdown! This week, it’s a very condensed, 4-game slate with two double-digit spreads on the Vegas board. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

• Josh Allen ($8,000 DK / $9,400 FD) – What is there to say at this point to further support Josh Allen’s fantasy football value? He’s the most expensive quarterback on the slate which will drive ownership down for the highest-floor/ceiling combo at the position this weekend.
  
  Stack Options: “Naked”, Stefon Diggs, Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir
  Bring-Back Options: Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco
  
• Patrick Mahomes ($6,800 DK / $7,700 FD) – A discounted Mahomes (rightfully so with his fantasy football performance this season) in a do-or-die game against a banged-up/semi-depleted Buffalo defense. I know this total is low for a Chiefs vs. Bills game, but the AETY Model still projects Mahomes to lead this slate in pass attempts (as the Chiefs have the highest Passing Rate Over Expectation) and he’s right there with Purdy/Goff for passing touchdown expectations. With the added benefit of the rushing from Mahomes, he’s by far and away my favorite GPP “pay-down” option while the field goes towards Goff and Purdy.
  
  Stack Options: Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco, TBD on a KC punt
  Bring-Back Options: Stefon Diggs, James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir
  
• Brock Purdy ($6,500 DK / $7,800 FD) – If you’re not interested in the Mahomes angle for GPPs, Brock Purdy will be my next go-to. The Packers’ defense is 26th in the NFL (dead-last in the remaining playoff teams) in Pass Defense DVOA and the touchdown equity through the air leads the slate this week. I’m all about it if you want to get different and it’s prime leverage off of Christian McCaffrey if you can stomach a fade there.
  
  Stack Options: Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle
  Bring-Back Options: Stefon Diggs, James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir
  
• Jared Goff ($6,300 DK / $7,600 FD) – Likely the highest owned quarterback on the slate (maybe Lamar beats him there) but for good reason. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are certainly more of a pass-funnel than they are a team to attack on the ground and Jared Goff leads this slate in projected passing yards. He or Allen would be my “safe” go-to for cash game builds but you can always go this way in GPP contests and get different elsewhere.
  
  Stack Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams, Josh Reynolds
  Bring-Back Options: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin

Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy

NFL DFS Running Backs

• Christian McCaffrey ($8,800 DK / $10,800 FD) – Expensive as hell, but he almost broke the AETY Model’s all-time projection output, lol. He’s been hampered with a calf injury to end the 2023 regular season if you’re looking for any spec of dust for fade consideration.
  
  If you’re crazy, you could roster a 1-2% owned, Elijah Mitchell ($5,200 DK / $5,000 FD).
  
• Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,600 DK / $7,300 FD) – On small slates, play the studs. Jahmyr Gibbs is one of the most talented football players in the NFL and has a poor-man’s McCaffrey’s workload through the air when facing a heavy blitz rate (Tampa Bay ranked 3rd in the NFL’s blitz rate). When the Lions need big plays, Gibbs will be on the field.
  
  David Montgomery on the other hand is a GPP dart behind a great offensive line, incredibly high team total, and no ownership. We’ll need a lot of help in the red-zone to have a solid day but we should see a little uptick in passing action against the blitz.
  
• Isiah Pacheco ($6,400 DK / $7,500 FD) – A three-down back with significant goal-line touch equity. I don’t love the spot for him, but the usage will be there in what should be a back-and-forth affair.
  
• James Cook ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD) – Great price and a great matchup against a Chiefs’ defense that allows a heavy workload to opposing pass-catching running backs. We’ll see some added usage to Cook through the air against the Chiefs’ heavy man-coverage rates. We always want to prioritize running backs who touch the ball 15+ times a game.
  
• Dalvin Cook ($4,000 DK / $4,500 FD) – Pure dart throw that the usage may actually be there for Dalvin Cook based on the ole Twitter articles and Coach speak I could find. I hate it, but if you’re not into Elijah Mitchell as a punt, Dalvin should get 4-8 touches and maybe more if this game for some reason gets out of hand. It’s absolutely a prayer salary relief play.

Honorable Mention: Aaron Jones

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

• Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200 / $9,200 FD) – Top priced and top projected wide receiver against a pass-funnel defense. We all know who Amon-Ra is at this point and his importance to this Detroit offense.
  
• Mike Evans ($7,200 DK / $7,600 FD) – Great matchups on the outside against the Detroit pass-funnel defense and a 33% expected target share in the red-zone. I would assume the field will just take the discount on Chris Godwin who has slowly been moving more outside in their offense and in my opinion, hurts the high-floor we’re used to with Godwin. Mike Evans should have a field day if this becomes a shootout.
  
• Brandon Aiyuk ($6,900 DK / $7,900 FD) – Aiyuk surprisingly grades out as a damn-near must-play inside the AETY Model. Having said that, I’ll stick to GPP’s only. Deebo would be fantastic as well, but it’s tough to get there (on DraftKings) with that salary. The Packers’ defense will blitz a lot and play a lot of Cover-3 zone defense. Both situations give Aiyuk an uptick in expected production against an awful Packers’ secondary.
  
• Rashee Rice ($6,800 DK / $7,800 FD) – The top-pass catcher for Patrick Mahomes and a depleted Buffalo Bills secondary. Rice is a go for all formats.
  
• Zay Flowers ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD) – Great price for a WR1 against a pass-funnel defense that has given up multiple 100+ yard receiving games to opposing top-wideouts. You’re going to want to get some part of this Baltimore offense and their 26.5 implied team total and Zay has the highest upside of them all.
  
• Christian Watson ($4,200 DK / $5,800 FD) – Another prayer type of play but the AETY Model expects a significant boost up in routes ran this week and a friendly target share against the 49ers’ Cover-1 and Cover-4 defense.
  
• Jameson Williams ($3,600 DK / $5,300 FD) – Way too cheap and way too talented for the price-tag and sub-par secondary for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I know he let everyone down last week and people want to flock to Josh Reynolds, but Jameson Williams is one of the biggest expected benefactors against the Bucs’ heavy blitz rate and soft zone coverages.

Honorable Mention: Deebo Samuel, Chris Godwin, Jayden Reed, Khalil Shakir, John Metchie, Mecole Hardman

Tight-Ends

• Sam LaPorta ($5,900 DK / $6,600 FD) – Don’t love the knee injury but LaPorta was still extremely active in terms of routes ran. The Bucs play a ton of Cover-3 zone leading to a lot of mismatches with talented route-running tight-ends. Hell, Juwan Johnson broke a slate against the Bucs!
  
• George Kittle ($5,200 DK / $6,400 FD) – Just like last week’s Ferguson lock, but to a lesser extent, I love Kittle as a contrarian option on the slate for a flex or tight-end. The Packers’ grade 26th in DVOA against opposing tight-ends. Unlike Ferguson, we may have to worry about volume in PPR formats.
  
• Isaiah Likely ($4,700 DK / $5,500 FD) – Too cheap with Mark Andrews out and a staple for cash-game lineups.

Honorable Mention: Travis Kelce, Dalton Kincaid

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Jared Goff
• Christian McCaffrey
• Josh Reynolds
• Isaiah Likely
• Rashee Rice

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.