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MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN STRATEGY: BUFFALO BILLS at NEW YORK JETS

Dave Gloeckner 7 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 6 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We almost nailed last night’s winning lineup, just missing out by 5 points. And if you saw, it was another night where a lesser owned CPT was the key pick in DK (Tyrone Tracy). So let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between AFC East rivals. While we’re all tired of seeing the Jets in primetime, we have a lot of information on them seeing they’ve played in a solo slot three of their first five games. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

BUFFALO BILLS

Running Back

The Jets are a confounding case on defense. We know they create good pressure and have a solid defensive backfield. So teams tend to run on them more than others. And when done correctly, teams have moved the ball efficiently on the ground against New York. Just go back to Week 1 and watch the Jordan Mason show. And the advanced numbers support that as they rank 31st in rushing defense grading according to PFF and are 21st in rush defense DVOA. But the fantasy numbers tell a slightly different story as they allow the 10th least points to RB’s. That’s partly due to the fact they’ve only allowed two rushing TD’s this season.

The Bills are a tough team to predict, from a running game standpoint, because Josh Allen often skews their numbers. They receive a run blocking grade that is 20th best in the league. But their rush offense is 12th according to DVOA and they average 118.3 yards/game on the ground, which is 15th best in the league. However, Allen is the second leading rusher on the team and when you take away his stats, the Bills RB’s average just 3.81 yards/carry.

As for James Cook, he’s had a solid season but most of his points came in one game, when he scored 3 TD’s against the Dolphins. The confusing part is his snap share. Since week 1, he’s seen the following snap percentages; 47%, 50%, 56% and 59%. Good news is that number is trending up. But it still seems low for what should be the lead back in a good offense. What this means to me, is that in a single game showdown, we could get some sneaky value in the second tier of Bills RB’s.

One major note to consider is that James Cook is questionable for tonight with a foot injury. If he doesn’t go, we could get some real value in Ty Johnson and Ray Davis. I lean Johnson just because he’s had the higher snap counts recently (though Davis has more touches in limited action). Just seems like the Bills trust Johnson more with Davis being a rookie.

Tier 1: James Cook

Tier 2: Ty Johnson, Ray Davis

Wide Receiver

It’s tough to attack the Jets in the passing game due to the presence of Sauce Gardner. But they have more than just Sauce in the defensive backfield. While some WR’s have seen success through the air, the Jets rank #1 in passing yards allowed per game at just 136.6. They also allow the 5th least fantasy points to WR’s. Digging deeper we find the Jets rank #2 in pass coverage according to PFF and have the top-rated cover cornerback in DJ Reed (Sauce is 47th this year).

The Bills have no true #1 WR’s. Which impacts their ability to move the ball down the field as they lack big plays. We have seen their first-round pick, Keon Coleman, grow over the first five weeks as he has a TD in two of the last three weeks. But his target share is limited as seen just 16% of the targets in those three weeks. Leading WR Khalil Shakir is questionable tonight with an ankle injury. That same injury kept him out of Week 5’s game at Houston which led to Josh Allen’s worst completion percentage of his career (9 of 30 for 131 yards passing). If he plays, Shakir provides value as he’s scored at least 10.2 fantasy points in every game this year.

This is a tough area to attack the Jets but I do believe one of the Bills WR’s will be needed in a winning lineup. Mack Hollins is my primary choice of the cheaper options as he had 6 targets in each of the past 2 games.

Tier 1: Khalil Shakir

Tier 2: Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins

Punts: Curtis Samuel

Tight End

The Jets have allowed just 4.1 fantasy points per game to TE’s, which is 2nd least in the league. They’ve allowed just 15 catches for 128 yards and 0 TD’s.

This is an extremely tough matchup for Dalton Kincaid. But he did face the Jets twice last season and brought in 10 catches for 72 yards. Last week, with Shakir out, he led the team with 6 targets. So I like him as receiver #1 tonight for the Bills as Josh Allen’s ability to break the pocket will allow Kincaid to find space in the secondary.

Tier 1: Dalton Kincaid

Tier 2:

Punt/Fadeable:

NEW YORK JETS

Running Back

The Bills are a team that you can beat on the ground. Injuries to the defensive line have been a factor. But they’ve been susceptible to good running games for years now (finished 17th in fantasy points to RB’s in 2023). This season, they are allowing the most points to fantasy RB’s. And that is primarily due to their inability to cover backs in the passing game. On the season, RB’s are averaging 7.2 receptions per game against the Bills. This alone impacts DK rankings due to the nature of their scoring system.

Breece Hall has been a major disappointment as he has just 197 yards rushing this season. In his last two games, he has just 27 yards and has averaged just 5.3 fantasy points per game. I do expect that to change tonight because of the vulnerability of the Bills run defense but also Hall’s ability to catch the ball in the passing game. He’s averaging 4.2 catchers per game.

Tier 1: Breece Hall

Tier 2: Braelon Allen

Wide Receiver

The Bills have good defensive numbers against WR’s. But some of that has been hidden by crooked scoreboards or bad QB play. They do allow 198.4 passing yards per game, 19th most, but we’ve seen better QB’s exploit them (see CJ Stroud last week).

The issues with the Jets passing offense is they play slow. New York is 18th in pace, averaging 27.2 seconds between plays. They also don’t go no-huddle much, ranking 20th at 7.9%. Maybe that all changes tonight with a new play-caller at the helm. But I still think this will be a more deliberate attack, as is the norm with QB Aaron Rodgers who loves to read the defense pre-snap.

Garrett Wilson is the primary as he saw a ridiculous amount of targets last game with 22. Allen Lazard had an impressive 10 targets against Minnesota and leads the team with 4 TD’s. Mike Williams is still finding his room but is ready to have a big game soon.

Tier 1: Garrett Wilson

Tier 2: Allen Lazard, Mike Williams

Tier 3/Cheap Options: Xavier Gipson

Tight End

The Jets primarily use Tyler Conklin at TE. He has 17 receptions on the season but no TD’s. The Bills have been good against TE’s allowing just 10.2 fantasy points per game. Only Cardinals TE Trey McBride has caught more than 4 balls against the Bills. And only Jacksonville TE Brenton Strange has found the endzone. I think more highly of Conklin than others and will have him in some of my lineups I stack a Jets passing attack.

Tier 1: Tyler Conklin

Tier 2:

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson or Josh Allen. I’m passing on Aaron Rodgers at the MVP position because he doesn’t get enough big plays in the passing game. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is Breece Hall but will look at Josh Allen, Garrett Wilson and Dalton Kincaid.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Josh Allen

FDMVP Tier 2: Aaron Rodgers, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook

FDMVP Tier 3: Allen Lazard, Khalil Shakir (questionable), Mack Hollins

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Breece Hall, Josh Allen

DK CPT Tier 2: Aaron Rodgers, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, Garrett Wilson

DK CPT Tier 3: Allen Lazard, Mack Hollins

DK CPT Punt:

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

Breece Hall
Garrett Wilson
Josh Allen
James Cook
Dalton Kincaid
Aaron Rodgers
Allen Lazard
Khalil Shakir (questionable)

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

Bills D
Jets D
Mike WIlliams
Keon Coleman
Tyler Conklin
Mack Hollins
Braelon Allen
Tyler Bass
Greg Zuerlein
Ty Johnson

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)

Best Rules for the slate:

Breece Hall is my favorite play tonight. He’s been criminally under-used and I look for tonight to be his breakout game.
Josh Allen is a one-man show and will likely be the highest scorer on the slate. I look for him to go over his rushing yards adding value to his DFS stats and points.
Even though it’s a tough matchup on paper, I think Dalton Kincaid will be the #1 Bills receiver.
I do like James Cook, and think he’ll be a factor in the game. I’m just worried about his TD equity. He’ll mostly be in my flex group and not MVP/CPT.
If James Cook is OUT, I’m all in on Ty Johnson. He’ll provide salary relief and see over 60% of snaps.
Don’t be afraid to play one of the Bills less heralded WR’s. I’m leaning Mack Hollins as my favorite of the group.
Aaron Rodgers won me a showdown earlier this year as a CPT. I’m not going back to the well as a CPT but do think you can use him as a flex.
If you fade Garrett Wilson, look to a combo of Allen Lazard and Tyler Conklin. This would be a good zag from what the public will do.
Both Kickers are in play – Total is 41.5 and the weather is nice but there is some wind predicted. Kicking game could be a factor tonight.
Consider one defense in a 4/2 or 5/1 roster alignment

Favorite prop for the game: Aaron Rodgers over 0.5 INTS (-110)

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

7 months ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports Football Premium

NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 6

Joe DiCarlo 7 months ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

I’m not sure if we can replicate Week 5’s DFS picks, so many diamonds were uncovered in the rough. Players like Tyrone Tracy Jr., Tucker Kraft, and Joe Flacco all made the Breakdown which would have catapulted your lineups past the money line in your cash games and GPPs. On to Week 6, let’s try to make some more DFS magic as we chop it up in this article to figure out our paths to victory. Only ten games again this week due to the byes, so here we go…

Stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice on Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.

Sunday Main Slate 10/13/24

Commanders @ Ravens (-6.5) (O/U 52.5)

What a game to kick off the slate. Two of this season’s most dynamic quarterbacks will go head-to-head as Jayden Daniels travels to Baltimore to face Lamar Jackson. Both are on heaters while leading their teams to victories as the Ravens have won their last three games and the Commanders have won four of their first five in 2024.

In a matchup with a 52.5 total, we can’t go wrong with any players for DFS. The rookie Jayden Daniels continues to lead the league in completion percentage (82%) and rushing touchdowns for quarterbacks (4). His arsenal will be in full effect, especially Terry McLaurin, who ranks third in deep ball catches with eight, and draws a favorable matchup against Marlon Humphries. Humphries was torched last game by Ja’Maar Chase’s 10 REC/193 YDS/2 TD stat line and has a rating of +18.8 to opposing wide receivers for the year.

The same goes for the Baltimore offense, fresh from scoring 41 points in their win on the road in Cincinnati. Lamar will get the matchup of the season, facing a secondary that has exploited all year in Washington (31st in PaTDs allowed with 11). Although we will never be sure which tight end will be productive from week to week, we can count on Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers to be involved in this game. Flowers should see plenty of St. Juste (+24.3 cover rating) lining up opposite of him, so expect to see plenty of targets in his direction.

Cash: Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Derrick Henry

GPP: Zay Flowers, Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler, Rashod Bateman, Zach Ertz

Update: Brian Robinson Jr. is OUT

Cardinals @ Packers (-5) (O/U 49.5)

Here is another game to invest in for DFS, a nearly 50-total featuring two explosive offenses. Both clubs are also coming off decisive wins on the road and looking to keep their momentum moving. There are plenty of pieces here again to consider for DFS, let’s check them out.

Jordan Love is finally back to full health, as he showed us in LA, but he is not quite back for fantasy yet. Only 17 fantasy points, but I’m more than willing to roll the dice on a Jordan Love three weeks removed from his injury going up against the Cardinals’ 27th-ranked defense in points allowed. Receiver Christian Watson will miss another game of what looks to be multiple, but the Packers will get Romeo Doubs back from a suspension. Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, and Dontavion Wicks all viable this week, and Josh Jacobs will see a run defense that has allowed eight rushing touchdowns and 24th in DVOA to opposing running backs.

We can expect another nice turnout for the Cards again this week, as Kyler Murray put the team on his back to defeat the Niners last weekend as seven-point dogs. The Packers have been weak at defending the pass, especially since corner Jaire Alexander went down with a groin injury a couple of weeks ago. Their run defense has been suspect all year long, allowing proven running backs such as Saquon Barkley and Kyren Williams to have field days. James Conner is one of those backs, and Murray could very well use his legs too on Sunday. Play your Cards for Cash games and GPPs.

Cash: Josh Jacobs, James Conner

GPP: Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jayden Reed, Trey McBride, Tucker Kraft, Romeo Doubs

Update: Christian Watson is questionable

Texans @ Patriots (+7) (O/U 37.5)

Houston will fly out to Massachusettes to face the bottom feeders of the AFC East, the New England Patriots. The Texans are coming off a victory over another AFC East team the Bills, where The Pats suffered their fourth-straight loss to Miami. Not much appeal here for DFS, but we can take a look and see on a flyer for GPPs.

Low-score totals are great for spotting defenses and running backs to draft. The Pats will be rolling out their first-round pick, number three overall Drake Maye to start this week. Since we have no idea where the ball will be going for New England, Maye and the offense will be high risk, but high reward since the ownership will be very low. We can be comfortable using the Texans’ defense, however, since rookie signal callers do make mistakes. Houston ranks 17th overall on defense.

The Texans did receive some bad news this week, as Nico Collins will need to be placed on IR due to a hamstring. This news brings Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell up the pecking order in targets, along with tight end Dalton Schultz. Running back Joe Mixon is trending toward missing another game because of a bum ankle, with Dameon Pierce still limited in practice (hamstring). We could yet again see Cam Akers season for a third week straight, but I’d rather take a shot against the gross Patriots’ secondary that has coughed up close to 1,200 passing yards already this season.

Cash: Tank Dell, Houston DST

GPP: CJ Stroud, Stefon Diggs, Antonio Gibson, DeMario Douglas, Drake Maye, Ja’Lynn Polk, Dalton Schultz

Update: Rhamondre Stevenson is OUT, Dameon Pierce is not on the injury report, Joe Mixon Expected to play

Bucs @ Saints (+3) (O/U 42)

Two NFC South rivals will look to bounce back after coming up short in both of their Week 5 matchups. Tampa played well in a shootout with Kirk Cousins in Atlanta, but the Saints looked stagnant and perplexed against a solid Kansas City defense. New Orleans also suffered a huge loss at quarterback with Derek Carr tearing his oblique in the fourth quarter, putting him week-to-week according to head coach Dennis Allen.

In Carr’s absence, the Saints will dial up their fifth-round draft pick Spencer Rattler to lead the offense. Although he is min-priced and a DFS diamond for tournaments, the targets will be unpredictable, and we will need to wait and see how his offense is run. Rattler had a decent preseason, completing 52% of his passes with one touchdown and zero picks. Tampa Bay’s defense will be the week’s most popular rostered defense, just don’t pair Rattler with the Tampa D (it would be a conflict of interest), make separate lineups.

The Bucs’ injury report showed Rachaad White popping up with a foot injury, so we’ll need to keep an eye on his status, even though Bucky Irving is obviously moving in on his job. It will be the same old song and dance with Baker, Godwin, and Evans, but Cade Otton draws an advantageous matchup against a Saints’ defense that ranks 31st facing opposing tight ends. All great options for tournaments, we can’t go wrong with owning a few Bucs this Slate.

Cash: Bucs DST

GPP: Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving, Spencer Rattler, Cade Otton, Rashid Shaheed

Update: Rachaad White is Doubtful

Browns @ Eagles (-8.5) (O/U 43.5)

The Dog Pound travels to the City of Brotherly Love to take on an Eagles team fresh off of a bye week that looks on track to being 100% offensive. Back in Week 4, we witnessed Philadelphia get their keesters handed to them by the Bucs, who scored on command that game. If you’ve seen the highlights of Cleveland’s last outing, you wouldn’t have missed quarterback Deshaun Watson walking off the field on fourth down and giving up on his team against Washington.

After watching what happened on the field between Deshaun Watson and head coach Kevin Stefanski, I realized it would be very difficult to trust the offense until we see a change at quarterback. What was displayed against Washington was brutal on the eyes, so anyone for the Browns should be kept in tournaments. The Eagles DST will be another popular defense on the slate. But If I had to take a shot on one of the Browns it would be Amari Cooper. He’s seen 18 targets in his last two games and a nice matchup against Darius Slay who has been a shell of his former self (+18% to opposing receivers)

The Eagles will hit the field well-rested and hungry to get back on the right track at home. Expect to see a lot of emotions released on a Browns defense that allowed 34 points to a rookie-led offense a week ago. Jalen Hurts and company get the green light for DFS in this matchup. We have to monitor AJ Brown and Devonta Smith’s injury status going into the weekend, which will play a big role in deciding our choices for rostering.

Cash: Jalen Hurts, Eagles DST

GPP: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Amari Cooper

Colts @ Titans (+1) (O/U 43)

Tennessee will host the Colts this weekend at home, who are loaded with injuries. The Titans will come out well-rested,from a Week 5 bye and desperate for a win. Indianapolis, who is also looking to get back into the win column, will need to do so without a few key pieces of their offense.

Michael Pittman and Josh Downs are the latest Colts to join Jonathan Taylor on the injury report this weekend. However, quarterback Anthony Richardson is trending in the right direction by practicing in full all week. If both receivers sit out, Alec Pierce and the rookie Adonai Mitchell will be in the driver’s seat for a full target share with Anthony Richardson, so keep a close eye on the news this weekend. Jonathon Taylor continues to miss practice, which leaves the entire backfield to Trey Sermon one more time. Sermon scored twice and caught all seven of his targets from Flacco in Week 5.

Tennessee sits in a great spot to return from their bye week, as they will face the 29th-ranked passing and 31st-ranked rushing defense. Tony Pollard will be a lock for Cash, with Ridley, and Hopkins all viable options for tournaments. Ridley draws the best match-up facing corner Sam Womack (+26.5 cover rating). The Jaguars’ rookie Brian Thomas Jr. (5 REC/122 YDS/1 TD) feasted from Womack’s lackluster defense. Stay away from the Titans quarterback situation, as Levis could get pulled again for Mason Rudolph.

Cash: Tony Pollard

GPP: Trey Sermon, Alec Pierce, Adonai Mitchell (if Pittman/Downs do not play), DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, Joe Flacco

Update: Michael Pittman and Josh Downs are expected to play, Jonathan Taylor is OUT, Joe Flacco will start

Chargers @ Broncos (-3) (O/U 35.5)

LA also coming off a bye will travel to Mile High Stadium to battle the white-hot Broncos who are on a three-game winning streak. The total is disgusting, as both teams play at a very low pace and take pride in their defenses. We may just play it safe with both teams’ DSTs, but let’s dive into a few other players for tournaments.

Denver’s Bo Nix is quietly getting better from week to week, throwing for two touchdowns with a 70% completion in Week 5. But he will face the 5th-ranked passing defense in LA and would be pretty risky to roll out for DFS. I would be willing to take a shot again on Javonte Williams, the Broncos’ back was money in the bank last week. He regained the majority of the snap share (60.1%) and averaged well over 5 yards per carry adding 5 catches for 50 yards.

The same goes for Justin Herbert this week, not that he’s been a gunslinger at quarterback this season anyway. Denver is ranked second in points allowed, and third in total yardage. The ground game will be key for LA, and it’s been all J.K. Dobbins from the start. He worked his way to a 70% snap share in Week 4 but has fizzled out his last two games to single-digit fantasy points. Gus Edwards is trending in the wrong direction and is not practicing this week. Dobbins will be in sole control of the backfield if Gus sits, but he’s only a GPP player.

Cash: Broncos DST, Chargers DST

GPP: JK Dobbins, Javonte Williams, Bo Nix

Update: Gus Edwards is OUT

Update: Josh Reynolds placed on IR

Steelers @ Raiders (+3) (O/U 36.5)

The Steelers will head over to Vegas while they recover from a loss in Dallas to square off against a Raiders team ready for tank mode. Davante Adams is still on the trade block while Zamir White is set to miss his second straight contest, and both still cannot foresee who will start at quarterback from week in and week out. Another nauseating total of 36.5 to dissect, so let’s get it over with.

Davante Adams is still looking for a new place to call home, but until then he will nurse his so-called hamstring injury and sit out yet again. This situation continues to force the ball into the hands of rookie tight end Brock Bowers and wideout Tre Tucker. Quarterbacks in Vegas are useless for DFS, as Gardner Minshew or Aiden O’Connell can be pulled at any given situation, The matchup is tough enough as it is, so keep everyone in silver and black in tournaments while they face the number two defense in the league in points allowed.

Justin Fields will get the nod once again to start for the Steelers, but buyer beware. Russell Wilson has been cleared to play but will be listed as the number two QB to start the game. If Fields continues to struggle as he did against Dallas, Tomlin will be prepared to yank him out. Either way, George Pickens and Pat Friermuth should be safe to roster regardless of who is under center.

Jaylen Warren is set to miss another game, which will give another full workload to Najee Harris. The matchup is decent, Vegas is 22nd in DVOA to opposing running backs and was extremely generous to Javonte Williams for fantasy last weekend (16 FPTS).

Cash: Najee Harris, Steelers DST

GPP: Justin Fields, George Pickens, Alexander Mattison, Tre Tucker, Brock Bowers, Pat Freiermuth, Vegas DST

Update: Jakobi Meyers is Doubtful

Falcons @ Panthers (+6) (O/U 47.5)

Atlanta returns to the slate off of a long week’s rest after defeating the Bucs in a come-from-behind fashion victory last Thursday. They’ll get a divisional game in Carolina, where the matchups will be fruitful. The Panthers and Andy Dalton have finally come back to Earth, taking their lumps in another loss in Chicago. Carolina will be home, but the momentum will be tough to stop of the Falcons.

Five hundred yards, over five football fields Kirk Cousins threw for last weekend. If you’re looking to chase fantasy points, look no further than this game on the slate. Carolina’s defense continues to struggle, now listing Jadaveon Clowney as a DNP on Friday. They’ve allowed the most rushing and second-most passing touchdowns in the league, so everybody for Atlanta is a green light for DFS.

The total is 47.5 for a reason, as bad as Carolina’s defense is, they are still capable of moving the chains. For the Panthers angle of DFS, I would lean to ride the hot hand of Chuba Hubbard, but only in GPPs. The Falcons average close to 150 rushing yards per game, and he is the only back in town until Jonathan Brooks is ready to go. Hubbard has crushed his salary, rushing for over 100 yards in two of his last three games (97 last week) with three touchdowns.

Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette pooped up questionable, so if you are considering any other pieces to this offense besides Hubbard, keep a close eye on practice news. The Falcons were picked apart in their secondary by Baker Mayfield in the first half last Thursday, but the caliber of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin is not equal to Johnson and Legette. Keep them away from Cash games.

Cash: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Chuba Hubbard

GPP: Kirk Cousins, Diontae Johnson (if healthy), Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, Xavier Legette

Lions @ Cowboys (+3) (O/U 52.5)

Last, but certainly not least, we have the barn-burner of the afternoon as Detroit flies into Dallas. Both teams are coming off of huge wins, with Detroit being very well rested returning from their bye week. The total spells it out plain as day, and the spread dictates a back-and-forth type of game flow. I feel this game will show plenty of ownership on the slate, so let’s check it out.

Detroit will look to establish the run game early on, and Dallas has been a turnstile to opposing running backs, allowing the fifth most touchdowns so far this season with eight, and tenth most yards (675). Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have both been equally effective for fantasy value, so you can’t go wrong in their timeshare (each averaging 17 FPTS per game).

When the run game gets going, Goff will start up the play action. The passing targets have all gone to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, who has put a lid on Sam La Porta’s opportunities because of his breakout. La Porta should only be used in GPPs. until Willams takes his foot off the gas.

The writing is on the wall in the Cowboys’ locker room, bring your “A” game. Whatever drama is going on between Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb needs to be put to bed, because Detroit will have no problem scoring on this defense potentially missing Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs.

This game will rest in Dak’s arm. Detroit is ranked 27th in defending the pass, now we know Lamb should be effective, but the real question is will Jalen Tolbert? He’ll line up across from Terrion Arnold, whose coverage is absolute garbage (+24.8). Tolbert and Jake Ferguson will both reap the benefits of more targets thanks to Brandin Cooks landing on IR.

As for a Cowboy running back, we love Dowdle for his pass-catching ability and role in the hurry-up offense. Zeke Elliot’s wheels have fallen off the axle and Dalvin Cook has been MIA, leaving Dowdle, Luepke, and Deuce Vaughn as the last backs standing.

Cash: David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown

GPP: Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Jake Ferguson, Jalen Tolbert, Jameson Williams, Rico Dowdle, Sam La Porta

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 6! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content up until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

7 months ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting Premium

NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Six

Dave Gloeckner 7 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We were so close to a sweep in Week 5. A reliable kicker, Evan McPherson, missed a FG in OT that would have put some cash in our bank. And Matt Stafford threw a late pick while the Rams were headed to a cover, and potential win, to cost us as well. So it’s another 2-2 week and what could have been. But the good news is, close means we’re trending right in our analysis. So I’m looking forward to this new week and new chances to get back on the winning track.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday.

NFL BETS WEEK 6 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 9-11)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -1 at CHICAGO BEARS

The Jaguars opened as 2.5 point underdogs and have shifted to favorites over the week. And looking at the action being bet on the early game in London, the Jags still are getting a minority of the bets and money. There are no significant injuries to either team, so the shift in line seems to be predicated on early sharp action on the Jags.

Either way, this does look to have a Jaguars type flavor to it. For one, Jacksonville is used to the overseas travel and has a routine for playing in London. So much so, they are actually playing there two weeks in a row for the second straight season. They’re accustomed to the travel, the practice routines, and most importantly the time change.

Then there is the matchup according to the team statistics. The Jags have the 32nd ranked defense according to DVOA. But that is mostly due to the terrible pass defense. On the other side, the Bears rank 26th in offensive DVOA. And they average just 191.8 yards/game passing the ball, ranking 23rd in the NFL. On the other side, while the Bears rank 7th in overall defensive DVOA, they are 30th against the run. Jacksonville ranks 16th overall in offense, according to DVOA, and has the 13th best rushing offense. That extends to PFF, as they have the 6th best rated run offense according to their metrics.

I like the normalcy of this game for Jacksonville and think their weaknesses won’t necessarily get exposed like they have against better pass offenses. Let’s start our Sunday with an early win.

CAROLINA PANTHERS +6.5 vs ATLANTA FALCONS

The Falcons brought Kirk Cousins to Atlanta in the offseason to improve their putrid QB play. They didn’t know they were bringing his luck in close games as well. The latest example was last Thursday when Cousins threw for over 500 yards in leading a game-tying drive in regulation to a game-winning drive in OT against the Bucs. The Falcons now sit at 3-2 overall, but their plus/minus is -4. That’s because their three wins are by 1 point, 2 points, and 6 points (OT). In fact, all five of their games are one possession games, being decided by 8 points or less.

We all know the Panthers are a mess. Their latest outing was maybe their worst, losing 36-10 at Chicago. They’ve allowed at least 22 points in every game and have a league worst point differential of -84. But when they hit their low, is when we pounce. Recall week 3, when we backed the Panthers in Vegas and they came away with an outright victory. Today is looking the same, as just 18%of the bets and 12% of the money is on Carolina.

And truth be told, the Falcons don’t play good enough defense to blow teams out. They’re allowing 23.5 points/game and 335 yards/game, both in the bottom half of the league. I think the Panthers can keep this one close enough for a while, and then Kirk Cousins will wake up and lead the Falcons on a GW drive.

DETROIT LIONS -3 at DALLAS COWBOYS

These two teams played a classic last year. The Cowboys held on to a 20-19 victory in that game pushing them to 11-5 and on their way to the NFC East title. But it took many curious calls by HC Dan Campbell to aid the Boys in their victory. The final was a 2-point conversion fiasco, as the Lions were afforded two chances (after a curious flag on a converted opportunity to an ineligible OL) but both fell short. I’m sure that moment, which was a low point for Campbell, will fuel as motivation today.

The other key is the Lions are coming off a bye and have been scouting the Cowboys for weeks now. And what they’ve seen is an offense that is not the same as it was last year when it led the league in points/game (29.9). This season Dallas is down to 23.4 points/game, good for 16th in the NFL.

Lastly, Dallas struggles on defense as well ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA and 31st in rushing defense DVOA. That is worrisome as Detroit is 2nd overall in rushing offense DVOA as the deploy two quality RB’s in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions ability to exploit that weakness in the Cowboys will be the biggest factor, along with some added motivation from the HC, to help propel Detroit to a victory in Dallas. One they should have had last year.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +3 vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS

The Steelers are a solid team, but they don’t put up enough points to ever put teams away.

CINCINNATI BENGALS -3.5 at NEW YORK GIANTS

This is a do-or-die game for the Bengals. After last week’s disappointing loss to the Ravens, Cincy has dropped to 1-4 and is 2.5 games out of the AFC North lead. The Giants are coming off a big win out west in Seattle, where they put up 29 points to beat the Seahawks. But news out of NY is that WR Malik Nabers is out for a second straight week, raising major concerns on how they’ll be able to keep up with a high paced Cincy offense.

SURVIVOR PICK

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

My survivor pool got so thin that they opened a new one starting this week! But the way this season has gone, this could be a bad investment. But I’m not getting tricky here, the Eagles aren’t very good but the Browns are worse. And Philly is coming off a bye with some renewed health. I’ll take the Eagles, in one of my only chances to do so, to start this new path to be the final survivor.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

7 months ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop Rankings Cup Series: Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte 10/13/24

Matt Vecchio 7 months ago

written by Matt Vecchio

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the NASCAR Cup Series. Below you will find my rankings for the drivers in this race.

I am going to try something different for tonight’s race. Instead of the usual driver rankings list, I will give out four different categories of drivers and a little snippet breaking down how to play each group.

(Starting position in parenthesis)

(All pricing is for DK)

Lock:

Chris Buescher (29) – $9.1K

Buescher is a talented road course racer and should end up as the pace differential play on this slate. Since 2022, Buescher has finished in the top 10 in 13 of 16 road course races and has an average finish of 8.3. In the two ROVAL races since 2022, Buescher has finished top 10 in both and has an average finish of 6.5.

Top Finishing Plays:

Shane van Gisbergen (1) – $10.3K
Kyle Larson (6) – $10.2K
AJ Allmendinger (3) – $10K
Tyler Reddick (2) – $9.3K

My plan is to roster at least two of these drivers with Buescher in all lineups.

Place Differential Plays:

Martin Truex Jr. (30) – $8K
Noah Gragson (32) – $6.6K
Justin Haley (33) – $6.3K
Ty Gibbs (19) – $8.5K
Alex Bowman (17) – $8.1K
Michael McDowell (21) – $8.7K

GPP high upside options:

Denny Hamlin (18) – $7.1K
Ross Chastain (16) – $8.8K
Kyle Busch (11) – $8.3K
William Byron (10) – $9.8K
Chase Elliott (7) – $9.5K
Ryan Blaney (14) – $7.8K

Value Plays:

Erik Jones (37) – $6K
Ryan Preece (34) – $5.6K
John Hunter Nemechek (35) -$5.5K
Carson Hocevar (20 ) – $6.1K
Bubba Wallace (9) – $6.5K

NASCAR Best Bets:

(best odds and site in parenthesis)

Top Manufacturer Bets: (all on DK)

Longshot To Win:

Matchups:

(All bets are from DK)

7 months ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports Premium

Thursday Night Showdown Strategy: San Fransico 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

David Jones 7 months ago

written by David Jones

Week 6 of the NFL season starts with the San Fransico 49ers traveling to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

I prefer a correlated lineup build that tells a compelling game story – a strategy that has proven to win more often than not. Check out my “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article for a deeper dive into my general showdown rules. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I tend not to write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

San Francisco 49ers

Running Back

Seattle allows 23.4 fantasy points per game to RB
They have allowed 553 rushing yards and four rushing TDs
They are ranked 10^th in DVOA against the rush

The 49ers are going to be pretty easy to break down. Jordan Mason is the clear top option for their running game. The only thing that gives me pause is that he is the single most expensive player on the DraftKings slate. His backup, Isaac Guerendo, played 14% of snaps last week and got five carries. The only way Guerendo is relevant is if Mason gets injured.

Kyle Juszczyk is on the field 63% of snaps and usually gets the ball in his hands a couple of times. At a price tag of $1,400, he will still have to score. It isn’t impossible, but it isn’t likely. He is still probably the best “punt” on the 49ers, but that is just because hardly anyone touches the ball besides the Big 5.

Tier 1: Jordan Mason
Punts: Kyle Juszczyk, Issac Guerendo

Wide Receiver

They allow 28.5 fantasy points per game to the position
They have allowed five receiving touchdowns all season
They are ranked 12^th in DVOA against the pass
18^th against WR1, 17^th against WR2, 26^th against WR3

Deebo Samuel is my favorite receiver for the 49ers. He draws the most favorable primarily matchup against a combination of Tre Brown and slot corner Devon Weatherspoon. Jauan Jennings is going to be my second preference. He runs out of the slot 58% of the time and is half the price of Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk was force-fed targets last week, but that is something we have learned we can not count on him for every week. I know typically the coverage would benefit Aiyuk here, but I just can’t prefer him over Samuel. It is very close so if you are feeling Aiyuk I can’t really talk you off it.

Chris Conley is questionable. He would be the WR4 if active. That would give him anywhere from 12%-40% of snaps, depending on how the 49ers run the offense. He is not a reliable option and would be lucky to get more than one target. The same could be said for Ronnie Bell, who would slide into the WR4 role if Conley is ruled out. Jacob Cowing wouldn’t see the field if both receivers were active.

Tier 1: Deebo Samuel
Tier 2: Jauan Jennings, Brandon Aiyuk
Punt: Chris Conley (Questionable), Ronnie Bell

Tight End

Seattle has given up 11.9 fantasy points per game to the position without allowing a single touchdown.

George Kittle will get all the run here, and he is the cheapest 49ers stud on the board. He has a touchdown in his last three games, not that that means anything for this matchup. If you are jamming in 49ers, which you should be, if you don’t end with a lot of Kittle, you are building wrong.

Eric Saubert is his backup and is virtually out of the passing game with Kittle healthy.

Tier 1: George Kittle
Punt: Eric Saubert

Seattle Seahawks

Running Back

The 49ers allow 22 fantasy points per game to the RB
They have given up 430 rushing yards and three rushing TDs
They are ranked 17^th in DVOA against the rush

Kenneth Walker will get the lion’s share of carries while also being utilized in the passing game. In every game he has been active in this season, he would have hit the optimal in a showdown lineup. He is my favorite running back on the slate.

Zach Charbonnet stands out here as his salary has dropped to $3,400. I know he will just get a few carries, but he is used in the passing game enough at that salary to pay off. He has been averaging six touches (rush/pass) the past two games with Walker back, and that is plenty to take a shot on at that salary with his big play upside. This is one instance of understanding salary and condensed offenses where I wouldn’t be opposed to Walker and Charbonnet overlapping in some lineups.

Tier 1: Kenneth Walker
Tier 2: Zach Charbonnet

Wide Receiver

The 49ers are ranked 4^th in DVOA against the pass
They allow 29.6 fantasy points per game to the position
They have allowed four receiving touchdowns all season
8^th against WR1, 30^th against WR2, 1^st against WR3

Jaxson Smith-Njigba runs 86% of his routes out of the slot. That will be occupied by the 49er’s best cover corner this season, Deommondore Lenoir, who is allowing just 0.68 YPRC.

The perimeter is where the Seahawks, who play their third game in just ten days, should be able to beat the coverage at a higher rate. The YPRC rates on the left and right are virtually identical, so let’s lean into who has been better between D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Metcalf has a higher target share (20.1%) and higher YPRR (2.01). He is your guy.

Laviska Shenault and Jake Bobo hardly play. They both get about one target per game. I think you can fade them and hope they just don’t house their only target against the 49ers.

Tier 1: D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
Tier 2: JSN

Tight End

The 49ers allow 8.5 fantasy points to the position per game
They have allowed two recieving TDs

This might be the position that wins it all. You can beat the 49ers in the middle of the field with short passes, and the Seahawks have three tight ends that are involved enough for a showdown. Noah Fant is the leader in route participation and snaps (89%). A.J. Barner (26% of snaps) and Pharaoh Brown (14% of snaps) live to get a target or two, much like the backup receivers.

If a weird guy wins someone $500K tonight, it is likely one of the Seattle “scrubs.”

Tier 1: Noah Fant
Tier 2: A.J. Barner, Pharaoh Brown

FanDuel MVP Picks –TNF Showdown

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range.

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Kenneth Walker, Jordan Mason
FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Brock Purdy, Geno Smith
DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Kenneth Walker, Jordan Mason
DraftKings CPT Tier 2: D.K. Metcalf, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel
DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Tyler Lockett, Brandon Aiyuk, JSN – more of a Milly Maker tier

Best Value: Zach Charbonnet, Noah Fant

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

Kenneth Walker
Jordan Mason
Brock Purdy
Geno Smith
D.K. Metcalf
George Kittle
Deebo Samuel
Tyler Lockett
Jauan Jennings
Brandon Aiyuk
Jason Myers
Jackson Smith-Njibga
Zach Charbonnet
Noah Fant
Matthew Wright (concerned with the range they give him for attempted FG)
49ers D
Seattle D

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

Kyle Juszczyk
Laviska Shenault
A.J. Barner
Chris Conley (Q), Ronnie Bell
Isaac Guerendo
Pharaoh Brown
Jake Bobo
Eric Saubert

Flex Rankings TIer 3:

Jacob Cowing
Jake Tonges

Best Rules for the slate:

SF is a very condensed offense. There is nobody to get “cute” with there. The same is true for SEA, with only a few more wrinkles. Your primary LU builds should just be with the core 49ers and Seahawks skill players. Once you have optimized them, you can add in some Tier 2 punts.

Play at least one QB
- Pair him with two pass catchers if he is MVP or CPT
- Pair him with at least one pass catcher if he is in the flex
Play at least one RB, Mason, Walker, Charbonnet
Play at least one: Mason, Samuel, Aiyuk, Kittle
- It isn’t a bad idea to force two in some lineups and add Jennings to the mix.
Play at least one. Walker, Metcalf, Lockett, JSN
Don’t play more than one SF RB per team. I don’t mind Walker and Charbonnet in the same lineup if you are fading Geno.
Matthew Wright scares me. I will be underweight
Don’t play more than 1 defense, if any
Don’t play more than 1 kicker
Don’t play your MVP QB against the opposing defense
Stack your kicker with at least one skill player
- Someone has to move the ball down the field
Don’t play more than 1 TE per team, per lineup

7 months ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS Core and Best Bets for October 9

Jared Levitt 7 months ago

written by Jared Levitt

Hump Day! The ALDS and NLDS are both in full swing and 2 out of the series could be wrapped up as the 2 home teams in the NLDS both have a 2-1 game lead over their opponents. With this being the final 4-game slate of the season, this will also be the final article for MLB DFS this season. It’s been a fun ride.

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Seth Lugo ($8.5k on DK) vs. New York Yankees

The Royals/Yankees series heads to Kansas City tonight as the series is tied at 1-1. The winner tonight will take the all-important 2-1 edge and if it’s anything like the 2 games over in the NL, it will have the Royals ending up on top. Seth Lugo really has 1 main job tonight and that will be to keep both Aaron Judge and Juan Soto in check. If he can navigate those jabronis, the rest of his job will be rather easy.

Outside of Judge/Soto, this is a very beatable lineup. And tbh, playoff Aaron Judge is also very beatable. So far in the playoffs he’s 1-7 and has 3 K’s. This is a really good spot for Lugo tonight and look for him to hold down the fort for a Royals team that has its mojo back. He’s coming off a strong outing vs. the O’s and he’ll throw another today.

Jose Quintana ($7.2k on DK) vs. Philadelphia Phillies

The Mets have the Phillies backs up against the wall and they’ll turn the ball over to a pitcher who has been arguably their best pitcher over the last month or so. While Jose Quintana isn’t typically a high strike-out pitcher, he does K lefties at a high pace and really limits damage vs. them. On the year, he had a nearly 60% GB rate vs. them. That should neutralize the damage that comes from both Schwarber and Harper.

The Phillies will more than likely throw out 7 righties today and that won’t scare me off of Quintana today. Over the course of the season, he was a smidge better vs. righties than lefties as righties had a .309 wOBA vs. him and a lower ISO as well. Look for Quintana to close this one out for the Mets tonight.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Mets vs. Ranger Suarez

The Mets get arguably the best matchup on paper today. Ranger Suarez comes into this matchup today not in peak form. He’s allowed at least 3 ER in 3 of his last 4 outings and of all the pitchers throwing today, he has the highest ERA, xFIP, and SIERRA over the last 30 days. To make matters worse for him, he’s coming into this one not having pitched in 2 weeks and will surely be rusty.

He’ll also be facing a team of destiny as the Mets keep adding to this Cinderella-type story. They are a game away from reaching the NLCS for the first time in nearly a decade. Look for them to close this one out and get the better of Suarez this afternoon.

Core Plays: Mark Vientos, Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Plays: Brandon Nimmo

Value Plays: Starling Marte, Jose Iglesias, Francisco Alvarez, JD Martinez

San Diego Padres vs. Landon Knack

I’m also looking for the Padres to close this one out tonight. They too get a great matchup vs. a pitcher in Landon Knack who is the weak link to this Dodgers rotation. Over his last 21 innings of work, Knack pitched to an ERA of 5.14. He’s also allowed 5 homers over those 21 innings of work and a slate leading 7 barrels. Hitters are teeing off on him and that’s not what the Dodgers need in a win-or-go-home game for them.

He’ll surely have a short leash in this one but I like the Padres enough to get him to early enough where they’ll still put up some crooked numbers. Game. Set. Match. for the team that spent early and often this season on the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Teoscar Hernandez, and Tyler Glasnow.

Core Bats: Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Jurickson Profar, Jackson Merrill

Value Bats: David Peralta, Jake Cronenworth

I also like the Royals to put up a big number today vs. Clarke Schmidt.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

7 months ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting Premium

MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN STRATEGY: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Dave Gloeckner 7 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 5 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And we get a good one tonight as two potential playoff teams square off in the Saints and Chiefs. We had a solid weekend as several of our experts were bullish on QB Lamar Jackson and Joe Flacco, which helped immediately turn your lineups into a green screen. So we’ll look to cap off a great weekend with another money-making strategy article for this big showdown in KC. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Running Back

The Chiefs deploy a top-notch rushing defense. They allow the 5th lowest rushing yards per game and are ranked #3 in rush defense DVOA. Even more important, they allow the fewest fantasy points (DraftKings) to running backs. And it’s not like RB’s are doing damage in the pass game either, as they’ve allowed just 12 receptions to running backs, which is tied for fewest in the league coming into Week 5. As we know, a big part of RB Alvin Kamara’s game is his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. So that’s an important stat to consider.

But the good news for Kamara is that he’s almost matchup proof. And that’s due to a high volume of usage, as Kamara has 97 touches in 4 games (24.5/game). And he leads the league with an 82% snap count over the first four weeks.

Therefore, regardless of the matchup, Kamara is a must play on most of your builds tonight. Backup RB Jamaal Williams did see 5 touches last week but has seen just 13% of the snaps this season.

Tier 1: Bijan Robinson

Tier 2: Jamaal Williams

Wide Receiver

The Chiefs are solid against WR’s too but do have some holes that can be exploited in the defensive backfield. For one, they rank just 17th in pass defense DVOA. Secondly, they’ve allowed four receiving TD’s to WR’s this season as well as 42 receptions. And according to PFF, the Chiefs rank 20th in the NFL in pass coverage. So there are points to be had in the passing game for the Saints.

DB Trent McDuffie has been very good for the Chiefs this season and has kept #1 WR’s, like Zay Flowers and Ja’Marr Chase, to minimal yardage games. On the other side, Jaylen Watson has been good too but susceptible to big plays.

After a slow Week 1, when he wasn’t needed, Chris Olave has turned it on. In the last three games he’s hauled in 18 of his 22 targets for 254 yards and 1 TD. The Saints #2 WR, Rashid Shaheed, has more targets than Olave on the season (25 to 24) and has averaged more fantasy points (13.5 to 13.3). No other Saints receiver has more than 4 catches on the season as they focus on the RB’s and TE’s outside of Shaheed and Olave.

Tier 1: Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed

Tier 2:

Punts: Mason Tipton

Tight End

The Chiefs have been vulnerable against TE’s this year as they’ve allowed the most fantasy points per game to that position. IN fact, they are one of only two teams to allow over 300 yards receiving to TE’s this season (going into Week 5). We can all remember the big game that Isaiah Likely had in Week 1, which was followed up by a 7 reception 91 yard performance by Cincy TE Mike Gesicki.

With Taysom Hill out, I like Johnson to see the field over 50% of the snaps. Backup TE Foster Moreau could be considered for salary relief but being that Johnson is only $400 more, I’d focus on the starter for my builds.

Tier 1: Juwan Johnson

Tier 2:

Punt/Fadeable: Foster Moreau

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Running Back

The Chiefs are ravaged by injuries to key offensive players, especially at the RB position as lead Isaiah Pacheco is still on the IR with a broken leg. While they preferred to survive his absence with rookie RB Carson Steele, he has developed a case of fumble-itis resulting in his demotion last week. Instead, the Chiefs have turned to castoff Kareem Hunt who led the team with 14 carries last week against the Chargers. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has not been activated per this writing, so it looks to be Hunt then Samaje Perine with a sprinkle of Carson Steele if needed.

The Saints rank 8th in rushing defense DVOA and 19th in PFF’s rushing defense grading. Excluding Week 1 and 2, where the Saints blew away teams and forced them into passing, the Saints have allowed 260 yards rushing and an average of 6.5 yards per carry. So there is room to run against New Orleans, especially in more competitive game environments like the one predicted tonight.

Tier 1: Kareem Hunt

Tier 2: Samaje Perine

Wide Receiver

The Chiefs suffered another devastating injury last week this time to star WR Rashee Rice. The jury is still out to what the extent of his injury is. But it’s certain that he’ll be out a minimum of four week as he was officially placed on the IR last week.

Which means the KC receiving corps is where you have to be right tonight as I expect an unknown, or lowly owned, player to be the hero of the slate. The Saints have a strong defensive backfield led by CB Marshon Lattimore. But it’s Patrick Mahomes who can dissect any good defense. His passing numbers have been down of late, but he’s still the best in the game and has enough weapons to make big plays tonight.

I prefer the rookie, Xavier Worthy, the most as they use him in many different ways including the run game. After that it’s a crap shoot. But keep an eye on WR Justin Watson who saw the 3rd most targets last week and has the trust of Mahomes. Other names that need to be on your radar are Justyn Ross and Nikko Remigio, as both took snaps with the first team in practices this week with Mecole Hardman sitting out with a knee injury.

Tier 1: Xavier Worthy

Tier 2: Justin Watson, JuJu Smith Schuster, Sky Moore

Tier 3/Cheap Options: Justyn Ross, Nikko Remigio

Tight End

We’re waiting for our first Travis Kelce breakout game of the season. And after watching what Eagles TE Dallas Goedert did against New Orleans, I’m betting that comes tonight on MNF. Kelce showed signs of life last week as he brought in 7 catches on 9 targets. To put that in perspective, he had just 8 receptions combined in the first 3 weeks. And the Saints, as alluded to with Goedert, have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to TE’s this year.

Of note, Noah Gray saw four targets last week as the Chiefs did run many 2 TE sets with Rice injured.

Tier 1: Travis Kelce

Tier 2: Noah Gray

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Alvin Kamara, Patrick Mahomes or Travis Kelce. I’m passing on Derek Carr at the MVP position because he’s not playing the Panthers or Cowboys (averaged 9 fantasy points in weeks not playing Carolina and Dallas). Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I’ll look at Kamara and Kelce as my favorites but my two favorites outside of those are Shaheed and Worthy.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Alvin Kamara, Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes

FDMVP Tier 2: Kareem Hunt, Chris Olave, Xavier Worthy

FDMVP Tier 3: Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Travis Kelce, Alvin Kamara

DK CPT Tier 2: Xavier Worthy, Rashid Shaheed, Kareem Hunt

DK CPT Tier 3: Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson, Patrick Mahomes

DK CPT Punt: Justin Watson

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

Travis Kelce
Alvin Kamara
Xavier Worthy
Patrick Mahomes
Kareem Hunt
Chris Olave
Juwan Johnson
Rashid Shaheed

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

Derek Carr
Noah Gray
Justin Watson
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Harrison Butker
Blake Grupe
Saints D
Chiefs D

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)

Justyn Ross
Sky Moore
Nikko Remigio

Best Rules for the slate:

Play at least one stud RB, likely both. Both have tough matchups, but both teams also lack a full arsenal of WR’s. So they will use the RB’s in the passing game as much as possible.
Travis Kelce is my favorite player of the night due to the Saints issues matching up with TE’s. And Kelce’s knack to step up in big game (i.e. prime time).
If you play Kelce and Xavier Worthy then you’ll need to find space for Mahomes.
I like Juwan Johnson a lot, and he’s good salary relief if building around the Chiefs passing game.
Don’t be afraid to play one of the Chiefs less heralded WR’s. I’m leaning Justin Watson as my favorite of the group. But both Remigio and Ross are intriguing and if play if we get news that one is starting.
Only play 1 QB, or none. I prefer Mahomes over Carr. I don’t think there’s enough points scored to play both QB’s (total is 43)
Both Kickers are in play – Total is 43 and the weather is calm. Kicking game could be a factor tonight.
Consider one defense in a 4/2 or 5/1 roster alignment

Favorite prop for the game: TBD

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

7 months ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting Premium

NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Five

Dave Gloeckner 7 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 4 hung us with our first negative outcome of the season as surprising contenders, looking at you Minnesota and Washington, kept up their winning ways. Eventually, we will see regression with these teams but they have proven they are here to stay for the 2024 season. In the first weekend for byes, we look to a shorter slate to make our rebound and get back to, or over, 0.500. Looking at the Win Daily team, we have so many tools available to get your lineups set and bring home some big wins. You’ll see our NFL pre-lock show tomorrow and the projections and lineup optimizers are available for all our members.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday.

NFL BETS WEEK 5 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 7-9)

MIAMI DOLPHINS +1 at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

I wasn’t sure if it could get any worse for Miami after they were dominated in Seattle in Week 3. The addition of Tyler Huntley gave hope that the so-called offensive mastermind would be able to flip the switch quickly and have the Dolphins clicking on all cylinders. But then Monday night happened and we saw an absolute embarrassment of a performance as Miami put up just 184 total yards against Tennessee and lost 31-12. While I have major question marks about the Fins coaching staff, they still have premium talent on offense and some big names defensively. So I’m hopeful that a beatdown on national TV will inspire a group of proud men to make the necessary changes, starting this week in New England.

The Dolphins also have some good news as they are supposedly getting back RB Raheem Mostert, OL Terron Armstead and DB Kendall Fuller for this game. And the Patriots recently lost the key to their offensive line as C David Andrews is out with a shoulder injury.

I expect the Dolphins to slow this thing down to a halt and attack with their running game now that they have Mostert healthy and he can shed some of the load. The Patriots are having significant issues at RB (Stevenson fumbling) and OL, which the Dolphins should take advantage of and create havoc on QB Jacoby Brissett. I’ll bank on an ugly game but one where Huntley pulls out some magic late and is able to lead the Dolphins to a GW FG.

LA RAMS +3.5 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS

Jordan Love made his return last week and almost brought the Packers back from 21 points down to beat the Vikings. He led the Pack on three touchdown scoring drives in the 4th quarter which gives hope that GB is back to the way they played last year when they made the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs.

However, I’m backing the Rams today as they gear up to play just their 2nd home game of the season. Yes, the Rams are banged up especially at WR as Cooper Kupp will miss his 3rd straight game. But they still have Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams, and Green Bay’s D has struggled this year ranking 19th in team defense DVOA and is allowing 23 points per game.

The main reason I’m backing LA is twofold. First, Green Bay has some dissention in the room as they have suspended WR Romeo Doubs for not showing up to practice this week. His omission from mandatory practice was due to him questioning his role in the offense. And secondly, when the Packers beat the Rams 20-3 last season, that marked the single lowest point total and yards gained in HC Sean McVay’s career. I’m sure he’s circled that and is chomping at the bit to ensure that doesn’t happen again. And as we speak, 71% of the bets and 80% of the money are backing the Pack setting this up for a big fade the public play.

CINCINATTI BENGALS +2.5 vs BALTIMORE RAVENS

Everyone saw the Ravens demolition of Buffalo on Sunday Night Football. It got so bad that Mitch Trubisky had to play a few series for the Bills as they threw up the white flag early in the 4th quarter. The most surprising part was Baltimore’s ability to run the ball as they gained an eye-opening 271 yards on the ground. We all know the Ravens are the best running team in the league, but to average 8.0 yards/carry against an NFL team for an entire game is impressive.

And those optics, are exactly why I like the Cincinatti Bengals today. The Bengals picked up their first win of the season last week in Carolina. The outcome was somewhat predictable, but the way they did it was surprising. The Bengals had their best rushing output of the season racking up 141 yards on the ground. RB Chase Brown broke out with 80 yards rushing and two TD’s. Being able to show a balanced offense will be a huge key to the Bengals getting back in the AFC North race.

Back to the optics, almost everyone will back the Ravens here as they have been on primetime in three of the four weeks to start the season. People have seen them almost beat KC, then dominate both Dallas and Buffalo. The eye test says the Ravens are great, and that’s what the public will back. We’re seeing 82% of the bets and 71% of the money on Baltimore.

And remember, the Bengals season ended at Baltimore last year when Joe Burrow went down with a wrist injury. Cincy had taken a 10-7 lead but learned quickly after a short TD throw that Burrow’s hand/wrist was severely injured. That spelled doom for that game and the rest of the season. Additionally, there is urgency with Cincinatti as falling to 1-4 could completely derail their season again. Getting to 2-3 and owning the tiebreaker against Baltimore would go a long way in getting back into the division race.

HOUSTON TEXANS -1 vs BUFFALO BILLS

It’s revenge day for someone today when the Bills travel to Houston to face the Texans. And I’m leaning on WR Stephon Diggs to have the last laugh. There has been much said about the relationship between QB Josh Allen and Diggs, and the two made a split this offseason as Diggs was shipped off to Houston. We’ve seen Allen perform admirably so far, with just 1 turnover in four games. But he is missing Diggs, as no Buffalo WR averages more than 57 yards receiving per game.

For Houston, last week’s comeback against Jacksonville was thrilling to say the least. But it did show another week of underwhelming results from the offense as they had only 17 points until the final drive. They are averaging just 19.9 points per game this season. But a win like that can be inspiring and I expect the offense to show some extra burst today as they have motivation and momentum on their side.

The public also backs Buffalo today with 69% of the bets coming in on the road team.

SURVIVOR PICK

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The Gmen played tough against the Cowboys but managed just 5 FG’s. They struggle to score and that will be a factor today in the upper Northwest as the Seahawks are averaging 25.3 points per game..

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

7 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 5

Joe DiCarlo 7 months ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

The byes have arrived here in Week 5, causing the Main Slate to get chopped down to ten games. Week 4 was successful for DFS as we hit on plenty of players like Justin Fields and Tre Tucker. The injuries just keep on coming as well. Rashee Rice was the toughest of them all to absorb last week, an ACL that may force him out for the season. On to Week 5 fellas, there is more money to be made, so let’s break down this slate.

Sunday Main Slate 10/6/24

Browns @ Commanders (-3.5) (O/U 44.5)

The Commanders welcome the Browns to the DC area, looking to make it three wins in a row at home. Jayden Daniels has lived up to his second-overall pick value, leading his team to two straight wins. The Browns are currently on the other side of the spectrum, losing three of four games, most recently to the lowly Raiders thanks to costly penalties that stole an 82-yard touchdown from Amari Cooper. But can we trust Deshaun Watson this week or throw in the towel on Cleveland for DFS?

Watson will get the best matchup of the season against one of the worst secondaries in football (31st in passing yards allowed/32nd in PaTDS). But with the Browns and how their season has been so far, they could screw up a wet dream. Watson, Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, and Jerome Ford remain as GPP candidates this week until we see something different.

The 2024 Second-Overall Pick has lived up to the hype. Jayden Daniels has already been mentioned for MVP, the rookie has completed 82% of his passes through four games and is making all of his teammates’ fantasy viable. But he’ll have a tougher mountain to climb this weekend. Although the Browns have struggled offensively, the defense has kept opposing teams honest holding them to 21 points or less in their last three games. Daniels is still safe for Cash, but Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson, and Zach Ertz should be kept in GPPs. Austin Ekeler could make it back this week, so don’t go chasing Jeremy McNichols this week.

Cash: Jayden Daniels

GPP: Deshaun Watson, Amari Cooper, Jerome Ford, Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler (if healthy)

Update: Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler, and David Njoku will play

Ravens @ Bengals (+2.5) (O/U 50.5)

Here we go into the AFC North for a divisional game with a juicy 50 point total between the Ravens and Bengals. Baltimore will attempt to keep the momentum moving on the road in Cincinnati after easily winning against Buffalo on Sunday night. The Bengals finally got into the win column defeating Carolina in Week 4 after starting the season 0-3. This should be a good game to target for DFS because of each team’s firepower and familiarity between both teams.

The run game of the Ravens has been a run-away train so far this season. There has been no answer to stopping Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry from knifing through opposing defenses (708 TOT RuYds/7 TDS in four games). Cincinnati’s 25th in rushing yards allowed (145 yards avg. per game), so we can lock both Ravens in for Cash. However, the Ravens’ receiving core has been an anomaly this year, since we never know where the targets will go from weekly. All should be left out of Cash and kept in tournaments for now.

The Bengals’ offense seemed to look better against Carolina last week, but then again, who doesn’t? Tee Higgins will be into his third game of the season this week, which should give him enough reps to get back up to speed. Joe Burrow depends on both Higgins and Chase to be on the field to move the football. His arm will be crucial in this matchup, as Baltimore only gives up 57 yards rushing per game, but 257 yards per game through the air (29th in the NFL). All three will make awesome GPP candidates (Chase can be a Cash-game move), especially tight-end Mike Gesicki. The Ravens rank second to last defending tight ends.

Cash: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Ja’Maar Chase

GPP: Zay Flowers, Justice Hill, Isaiah Likely, Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow, Mike Gesicki, Chase Brown

Bills @ Texans (+1) (O/U 47.5)

The Bills were humiliated in Baltimore on Sunday night, taking their first loss on the chin. They’ll be out for blood in Houston, but not if CJ Stroud has something to say about it. We have a razor-close spread and a decent size total score, so we should see some back-and-forth action on both sides of the endzone.

You already know where I will start here…Stefon Diggs’s revenge game. If you don’t think that Diggs wasn’t staring at his calendar since the NFL announced the schedule, think again. However, the path to beating Buffalo is by foot where they are ranked 30th, as to the pass as they rank second in coverage. We must monitor the Texans’ running back situation as Joe Mixon may return to the lineup. But let’s start Stroud with his receivers in GPPs only.

Josh Allen is coming off his worst game of the season, as Baltimore put the Bills in a chokehold. Allen will need to do better than only 180 yards passing with zero touchdowns, and only 21 yards rushing. Houston’s defense is not as intense, being 23rd in DVOA to opposing quarterbacks, so expect Allen to bounce back this weekend. But he cannot do it alone. James Cook will also need to shoulder some of the workload, and not disappear like he did in Baltimore. Houston only allows 112 yards per game rushing, but expect Cook to see more passing work out of the backfield with a banged-up Khalil Shakir.

Cash: Josh Allen, Joe Mixon (if healthy)

GPP: CJ Stroud, Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, James Cook, Dalton Kincaid

Update: Joe Mixon, Khalil Shakir are OUT

Panthers @ Bears (-3.5) (O/U 42)

Carolina fell back to earth after losing a high-scoring game to the Bengals on Sunday, but Dalton kept his former team honest. They’ll visit the Windy City to battle the Bears, whose defense for the second time this season has bailed them out for the win. Chicago ranks third in recovered turnovers with a total of eight on the year, Chicago could be sitting at 0-4 if not for their defense. There will be plenty for DFS when Carolina is on the slate, so let’s dive in.

At age 36, Andy Dalton has resurrected the Panthers’ offense. Diontae Johnson has been the biggest beneficiary, in both games he has seen 15 receptions from 27 targets with 205 yards and two touchdowns. The rookie Xavier Legette also saw a bump in production, filling the shoes of the injured Adam Thielen (6 REC/66 YDS/TD). Running back Chuba Hubbard for the second straight game broke 100 yards rushing a hit paydirt, cementing this Panthers offense is now legit under the Red Rifleman. Let’s keep them all in GPPs because of the 8th-ranked overall Bears defense for now.

On the flip side, the Bears will see a superb matchup hosting Carolina. They’re currently dead last in points allowed per game, and check all the boxes for a pillow soft run defense (bottom five in yards allowed, touchdowns, and attempts). D’Andre Swift finally came to work last weekend, scoring well close to 30 fantasy points thanks to his seven catches for 72 yards to go along with 93 yards rushing and a TD. It’ll be tough to fade Swift this week, I have him in Cash as he is still priced under $6K on DraftKings.

Panthers’ cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson have held their ground in the secondary (9th ranked in the league for coverage), limiting Ja’Maar Chase to only three receptions in Week 4. By all means Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore are viable weapons for Caleb Williams, but I’d lean to using them in GPPs.

Cash: D’Andre Swift, Bears DST

GPP: Andy Dalton, Caleb Williams, Diontae Johnson (if healthy), Xavier Legette, D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen, Roschon Johnson

Colts @ Jaguars (-2.5) (O/U 46.5)

Indy got the W against Pittsburgh thanks to the veteran Joe Flacco filling in for Anthony Richardson leaving the game with an oblique injury. They’ll take on a winless Jaguars team desperate to turn their season around at 0-4. A ton is at stake in Jacksonville, and jobs are at stake, so we can expect them to come out swinging in front of a home crowd this Sunday. Richardson is 50/50 to start as of Thursday, so we must monitor his status for DFS purposes.

Joe Flacco is a solid Cash/GPP move if Richardson can’t suit up. We saw flashes of his arm talent last season in Cleveland and last week when he threw two touchdowns. Either quarterback faces the most generous of secondaries in Jacksonville (32nd in DVOA), but I would prefer to see Flacco start for his lower price tag and ability to bring up the value to receivers Michael Pittman and Josh Downs.

In the Colts’ backfield, however, it looks like Jonathan Taylor may not play on that ankle sprain this week. Trey Sermon will be on deck, but his price on DraftKings has already been adjusted.,j so keep him in GPPs if Taylor sits out.

The Jaguars also get a solid matchup, as the Colts’ defense ranks 30th overall, and dead last in stopping the run and points allowed. If Lawrence and head coach Doug Pederson want to keep their jobs, Sunday is the day to prove their worth. Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas, Travis Etienne, and company all can be rolled out on the slate, Cash Games, and or GPPs. When two horrific defenses are on opposite sidelines of the field, we invest in the offenses for DFS. This game is my watering hole on the slate.

Cash: Trevor Lawrence, Joe Flacco (if Richardson is OUT)

GPP: Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, Trey Sermon, Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas, Gabe Davis (if healthy), Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby, Evan Engram (if healthy)

Update: Jonathan Taylor is OUT, Richardson is doubtful

Two

Dolphins @ Patriots (-1) (O/U 35.5)

Grossest game on the slate by a landslide, especially if you watched Miami on Thursday Night Football. The Fins are helpless until they have a competent quarterback, whereas Tyler Huntley appears to need more time studying the playbook. The Pats will try to secure a win at home with Jacoby Brissett remaining at quarterback. Brissett had a rough visit to the Bay Area (19-28/168 YDS/1 TD/1 INT) but will look to rebound against Miami.

Since Brissett has been struggling at QB, perhaps New England will look to the running game. The matchup is tasty, as Miami averages 119 yards allowed per game to running backs. But head coach Jerod Mayo has announced to possibly start Antonio Gibson over Rhamondre Stevenson this week due to his fumbling tendencies this season. Not much else I would roster for GPPs besides the Patriots’ backs and their defense. There are way too many options on this slate for DFS, but you’ll get no ownership in this game if you’re looking to break the slate.

Miami is sad to watch, so much talent on the field is just rotting to waste. Tyler Huntley does give them a good shot to move the chains, possibly this week after some practice under his belt. The Patriots have allowed 254 yards per game through the air (28th in the league) this season, can Huntley capitalize? Anything is possible, But he’s a Millymaker QB and only worth of high entry tournaments. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle can be rostered in standard-size GPPs, and the Fins D too.

Cash: Pats DST, Dolphins DST

GPP: Antonio Gibson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyler Huntley, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle

Update: Raheem Mostert will play

Cardinals @ Niners (-7.5) (O/U 49.5)

We now land on another divisional matchup as Arizona will try to pick up the pieces and find a win in San Fransisco. The Cardinals have not been able to stay competitive in games lately, mainly because of their play calling. The Niners steamrolled over the Patriots in last week’s game and will look to double down on the Cardinals.

If the Cardinals want to stay in the game, they will need Kyler Murray to lean on his arm. The matchup isn’t the greatest (Niners allow 199 PaYards/game, 96 RuYards/game), but those numbers have been padded from recently playing a Jocoby Brissett ran offense. With Trey McBride set to return from a concussion, Arizona will be at full strength offensively. Murray, Harrison Jr., McBride, and James Conner are a full go for lineups this weekend.

San Fransisco will be a must-owned team for rostering in DFS this weekend, as the matchup will be too good to pass up. Brock Purdy without Christian McCaffrey has picked up the slack in leading the offense. He’ll face a Cardinals team that’s 28th in DVOA to opposing quarterbacks. And speaking of slack, how about Jordan Mason this season… an absolute stud. He’s averaged over 111 yards per game along with 20 fantasy PPR points for the season. He’ll aim to feast once again this week on a Cardinals defense that allows over 146 rushing yards per game. Locks for Cash games, and Deebo, Aiyuk, and George Kittle for GPPs.

Cash: Brock Purdy, Jordan Mason, Kyler Murray

GPP: Marvin Harrison Jr, James Conner, Trey McBride, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle

Update: Trey McBride questionable

Raiders @ Broncos (-2.5) (O/U 36.5)

Two of the worst offenses in the league will battle it out in this AFC West Divisional meeting. Both clubs are coming off grueling wins against tough defenses, but I’m sure we will see some gruesome stats in this contest also. No Davante Adams again for the Raiders, who has a hamstring and trade demands out to ownership, so we’ll have one less receiver to worry about. The low total and tight spread scream at us to keep scrolling for DFS, but there are always plays in each contest. Let’s check it out.

Tre Tucker was the only player for Vegas who scored double-digit fantasy points last week, but can he do it again? Denver ranks third overall defending the pass, so it may not be wise to target any pass catchers for Vegas this week. If Denver’s Patrick Surtain shadows Jakobi Meyers, Tucker should have another nice day.

Their backfield has also been a mess with Zamir White and Alexander Mattison (31st in the league in total rushing yards). The safest bet is to roll with Denver’s DST, but news has broke that Zamir White has been ruled out, so Mattison could be in your lineup for value.

Denver has slowly begun to put the pieces together on offense, in the last two weeks we’ve seen Courtland Sutton score double-digit fantasy points (20 targets/10 REC/128 YDS/1 TD). He should see the Raiders Jack Jones line up across him this week, who has been awful (+22 coverage rating).

Overall it could be a sloppy game, so the Raiders DST would make sense in this spot also, Bo Nix may see a ton of pressure If Maxx Crosby is healthy enough to suit up.

Cash: Denver DST, Raiders DST

GPP: Tre Tucker, Alexander Mattison (Zamir White is OUT), Courtland Sutton

Packers @ Rams (+3) (O/U 48)

Two NFC rivals will face off after each suffered humiliating losses in Week 4. Minnesota ran up the score 28-0 in the first half, putting the game way out of reach for the Packers. The Rams, well they lost to a tenacious pass coverage that forced a few turnovers. Both clubs will look to get back on the right track in Week 5, and the total with the close spread is enticing for DFS.

How will Green Bay attack the Rams? On the ground and through the air. LA is dead last in rushing yards allowed (662), and 28th ranked in YPC (5.0). They’ve also allowed the fifth-most passing touchdowns with eight already this year. But the Packers will be a little thin at receiver this week, with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs listed as doubtful. Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks will be chalky and usable for Cash, with Josh Jacobs also at running back. If you’re looking to get frisky, punt on Malik Heath or Bo Melton at receiver. Jordan Love spreads the ball around like a jelly sandwich and can be a lock to be involved this week if Watson and Doubs are out.

LA and Matt Stafford should be getting Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back soon, but until then it will be the Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington show at receiver, each logging over 90% of the snap share. But the Rams’ main source of production is you know who…Kyren Williams. He’s scored in every game this season (6 TOT TDs). The Packers happen to be very generous to opposing backs, allowing an average of 110 yards per game (21st in DVOA). He’s a lock for Cash with the rest of his teammates in GPPs.

Cash: Kyren Williams, Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Tucker Kraft

GPP: Jordan Love, Matt Stafford, Jordan Whittington, Tutu Atwell, Bo Melton, Malik Heath, Colby Parkinson

Giants @ Seahawks (-7) (O/U 42.5)

Last but not least the New York Giants will travel out west to take on the Seahawks. However, they’ll be without their number-one weapon Malik Nabers, who is still in concussion protocol. Running back Devin Singletary also won’t take the field this weekend, which will leave Daniel Jones to be a potential deer in headlights come Sunday afternoon. Seattle will look to rebound after a tough loss in Detroit which was very high scoring.

The Giants will have some big shoes to fill with Nabers and Singletary out of the lineup. The next men up would be Wan’Dale Robinson and Tyrone Tracy Jr. to take over the lead roles at their positions. It’s not the most tempting to take a shot on, but Tracey provides a ton of cap space and will not need much production to meet value. Instead of Robinson, who is already priced up ($5,600 on DraftKings), take a shot on Darius Slay ton ($3,900 on DraftKings). There’s a ton of chemistry between him and Jones since he entered the league in 2019, and if Robinson draws the majority of attention from Woolen or Witherspoon, Slayton could cash you in.

If New York does in fact struggle offensively come Sunday, Seattle should eat up a lot of clock with Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet if it gets out of hand. DK Metcalf will draw the matchup of the week in Deonte Banks, who was just scorched last weekend by CeeDee Lamb who took an 86-yard catch to the house last Thursday night. The Seattle DST is also a play in this contest, since we may see some turnovers from a thin Giants’ offense.

Cash: Seattle DST, Kenneth Walker, D.K. Metcalf

GPP: Tyrone Tracy Jr., Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, Zach Charbonnet

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 5! Remember to check back daily for more content up until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

7 months ago 0 comments

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Thursday Night Showdown Strategy: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

David Jones 7 months ago

written by David Jones

Week 5 of the NFL season starts with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers traveling to the ATL to take on the Falcons. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

I prefer a correlated lineup build that tells a compelling game story – a strategy that has proven to win more often than not. For a deeper dive into my general showdown rules, check out my “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I tend to not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tends to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Running Back

The Falcons allow 19.2 fantasy points per game to the RB
They have allowed one rushing TD
They have allowed a total of 326 yards
20^th in DVOA against the run

The Buccaneers are inching closer to a 50/50 split for Rachaad White and Bucky Irving. That is also something that DraftKings has caught onto, separating the backs by just $400. The Falcons haven’t allowed more than one rushing TD this season. However, that can change fast. They are currently ranked 20^th in DVOA against the run, which indicates they have overperformed in that category.

If you are looking to play the most explosive back, it is Bucky Irving via YPC.

If you are looking to play the “starter” who is trying to save his job on a national stage, that is Rachaad White.

I will not be playing them in the same lineup.

Tier 2: Rachaad White, Bucky Irving

Wide Receiver

The Falcons allow 32.7 Fantasy points per game to wide receivers
They have allowed three receiving touchdowns to wide receivers
17^th in DVOA against the pass

The most expensive player on the DraftKings slate is Mike Evans. He is going to draw shadow coverage from A.J. Terrell. He has been outstanding this season with a 0.87 YPRC, but so has the Baker Mayfield to Evans connection. I am of the belief that Evans can beat any matchup, so the shadow coverage isn’t causing me to cross off Evans. That said, he is also not my favorite Buccaneers receiver.

Chris Godwin will likely line up in the slot for the majority of his routes against Dee Alford (1.60 YPRC). I say “likely” because Sterling Shepard will be playing the WR3 role tonight due to both Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer being ruled out, and he played the slot in NY during his career. However, if you are the Tampa OC, you likely aren’t pulling Godwin away from something he has excelled at this season and sticking him on the outside just to make Shepard more comfortable.

Shepard is only $1,600, and that is way too low. He is the easiest value click on the slate. He walked into 65% of snaps last week after Palmer went down. Kameron Johnson got himself 32% of snaps and one target, and it only cost $200. That is also some very good value for a showdown. One catch from him does the trick.

Tier 1: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Sterling Shepard
Tier 2: Kameron Johnson

Tight End

The Falcons have allowed 12 fantasy points per game to the TE
They have allowed 0 touchdowns

Cade Otton is the only reliable choice. He has 17 targets over the past two weeks. That is enough to establish confidence in the $4,000 tight end when the Buccaneers are down two receivers. Payne Durham (14% snaps) is a punt option that I will likely avoid.

Tier 1: Cade Otton
Punt: Payne Durham, Ko Kieft

Atlanta Falcons

Running Back

Tampa allows 25.6 fantasy points per game to the RB
They have allowed 3 rushing TDs
They have given up a total of 351 rushing yards
17^th in DVOA against the rush

Bijan Robinson was dealing with a hamstring injury early in the week but is expected to be “good to go.” His involvement in last week’s game is worrisome. He only ran the ball seven times while catching four balls, while his backup, Tyler Allgeier, got eight touches and caught two balls. If you were to tell me it would be the same split this week, you would be crazy not to play Allgeier at exactly half the price of Robinson. However, that is not usually the case. If you look at the three games prior, Robinson out-touches Allgeier as a true RB1 should.

Robinson is usually a solid play, especially on a showdown slate, but I can not, in good faith, say he is my favorite play on the day. He is a solid source of production, which should get you double-digit points, but I can’t claim he is my slate breaker.

Tier 1: Bijan Robinson
Tier 2: Tyler Allgeier

Wide Receiver

Tampa allows 28.1 fantasy points per game to wide receivers
They have allowed just one receiving touchdown to WR
13^th in DVOA against the pass
1^st in DVOA against the WR2

Drake London is the top WR for the Falcons. He carries the highest target share (25%) for the Falcons and runs the lowest percentage (20%) of routes on the left side of the field, which is covered exclusively by the Bucs’ rising rookie corner star Zyon McCollum. London should see a mix of Jamel Dean, who allows the highest YPRC (1.25), and slot corner Tykee Smith (1.08 YPCD)

Darnell Mooney runs on the left side more than any other Falcons receiver, yet it is only 40%. That means you can not 100% avoid Mooney completely simply because he sees McCollum more than any other receiver. He will still be off him 60% of his routes. That being said, I have no choice but to prefer Ray-Ray McCloud straight up to Mooney when taking salary into account. McCloud has a slightly higher target share (18.7 compared to 17.9) and runs out of the slot for 47% of his routes.

Tier 1: Drake London
Tier 2: Ray-Ray McCloud, Darnel Mooney
Punt: KhaDarel Hodge (5% of snaps last week, fadeable)

Tight End

Tampa has allowed 7.8 fantasy points per game to tight ends
They have allowed 0 touchdowns

Kyle Pitts pulled a Kyle Pitts again last week and got a big ole zero. He was targeted three times. The weeks prior were more promising as he was getting at least some production. There, unfortunately, isn’t a way to predict this guy. He is either terrible or does just enough to sneak into fantasy relevance. I can’t pretend to have a good reason to play him. If you do, you are just hoping to get lucky.

His backup, Charlie Woerner, is only $800, and you know he will be on the field for about a third of the snaps. He is primarily used as a blocker and has only caught one 2-yard pass the entire season.

Tier 2: Kyle Pitts
Punt: Charlie Woerner (fadeable)

FanDuel MVP Picks –TNF Showdown

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range.

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins
FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Chris Godwin, Bijan Robinson
FanDuel MVP Tier 3: Mike Evans, Drake London

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Chris Godwin, Drake London, Baker Mayfield
DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Mike Evans, Bijan Robinson, Ray-Ray McCloud
DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Cade Otton, Rachaad White

Best Value: Ray-Ray McCloud, Sterling Shepard, Cade Otton

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

Baker Mayfield
Chris Godwin
Sterling Shepard (based on DraftKings salary alone, not FD)
Bijan Robinson
Drake London
Kirk Cousins
Mike Evans
Younghoe Koo
Ray-Ray McCloud
Cade Otton
Rachaad White
Bucky Irving
Darnell Mooney
Tyler Allgeier
Chase McLaughlin
Kyle Pitts
Kameron Johnson ($200 on DraftKings is solid if he catches one ball, and you don’t leave a lot of salary on the table)

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

Falcons D
Buccaneers D

Fadeable Flex Punts: (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

Payne Durham (19% of snaps)
Charlie Woerner (30% of snaps, blocker)
Ross Dwelley (2% of snaps in Week 3)
Casey Washington (typically doesn’t play)
Ko Kieft (2% of snaps)

Best Rules for the slate:

I think you can get away with just optimizing the Tier 1 guys + defenses tonight. We are dealing with two condensed offenses, which is great for limiting combinations of “your guys” you can make on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Play at least one QB
- Pair him with two pass catchers if he is MVP or CPT
Play at least one Tampa WR, Sterling Shepard feels like a free square on DraftKings
Play at least one Atlanta WR, Ray-Ray is my favorite when considering salary
Don’t play more than one RB per team, per lineup. This feels riskier tonight, but I am still going to do it
I am high on kickers and forcing one in most lineups. I likely limit lineups to one kicker
I may limit my lineups to only allow one tight end; the numbers indicate that would be wise
Don’t play more than 1 defense, if any
Don’t play a kicker against your defense
Don’t play your MVP QB against the opposing defense
Stack your kicker with at least one skill player
Someone has to move the ball down the field
Don’t play more than 1 TE per team, per lineup

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