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MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN STRATEGY: NEW YORK GIANTS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Dave Gloeckner
written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 8 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We’ve already taken down a few showdowns this year as a team at WinDaily, and I feel like we’re due for another. So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between two storied franchises in the Giants and Steelers. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

NEW YORK GIANTS

Running Back

The Giants simply don’t run the ball enough, or effectively, to be relied on in season long DFS. But they have had some weekly success, including Tyrone Tracy putting up big numbers in their only other primetime game against the Bengals in Week 6. So throw out any bias you have with the Giants running game tonight as it pertains to fantasy and let’s see if we can find value in their matchup with the Steelers.

The reality is, this is a tough matchup for the Giants run game. Pittsburgh ranks 3rd in rushing defense DVOA and 4th in PFF rush defense ranking. And they’re allowing the 5th lowest fantasy point to RB’s this season. Add to that the Giants average just 3.9 yards/carry, which is 29th in the league, and have the 7th lowest run block rating in the NFL. Put all that together, and we’re back to where we started, fading the Giants running game.

The one piece of good news, if there is any, is that the Steelers are susceptible to RB’s in the passing game as they allow 5.1 catches per game to running backs. And both Singletary and Tracy are good pass catchers.

Overall, I like the $4K discount on Tracy. While last week’s game got out of hand quickly for the Giants, Tracy saw 67% of the snaps compared to Singletary’s 21%. The touches were late in the game with the score decided so I’m ignoring that. But Tracy does seem to have the hotter hand right now. And the Giants are desperate, so they need to take chances and use whoever is performing best.

Tier 1: Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Tier 2: Devin Singletary

Wide Receiver

This is the one spot that we’ll look to get some Giants into our lineups. While they struggle with protection, allowing 8 sacks last week, they have the 8th highest passing rate in the NFL, throwing it almost 60% of the time. And the spread, as well as team records, indicate they could be down early and often.

The Steelers have allowed the 14th most passing yards in the league, at 217 per game. Their DB’s are ranked 17th in team defense pass coverage. So there will be room to take shots if Daniel Jones has time. Obvious first choice is Malik Nabers. But the Steelers have allowed big games to #2 and slot WR’s like Ray Ray McCloud (led Falcons in receiving in Week 1), Jalen Tolbert (7 for 87 with TD) and Josh Downs (8 for 82 yards with TD). So, I like Wan’Dale Robinson to be a factor tonight and rank him up there with Nabers based on projected volume. Both led the team with 8 targets last week.

Tier 1: Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson

Tier 2: Darius Slayton

Punts: N/A

Tight End

We keep waiting for the Theo Johnson breakout game. And once again, he disappointed last week recording 0 catches on 0 targets. And maybe that happens this week as Pittsburgh has been vulnerable against TE’s. As of this writing, they allow the 11th most fantasy points per games to TE’s. And they’ve surrendered 3 receiving TD’s to tight ends. And if you haven’t heard, it was national TE day yesterday so no way will Theo want to be left out on the fun. I like him a lot because of his price tag and potential. Now it’s up to the QB to actually give him some looks.

Tier 1: Theo Johnson

Tier 2:

Punt/Fadeable:

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Running Back

The Giants are coming off a game in which they allowed 176 yards rushing to Saquon Barkley, their former 1st-round pick. In total, they surrendered 269 yards on the ground in Week 7 against the Eagles. Some metrics give them a better rating, as they are 14th in rush defense DVOA and 16th in PFF run defense. But I saw what I saw last week, and that is if you commit to the run then you can get big gains against this Giants defense.

The issue is, Pittsburgh isn’t necessarily built like the Eagles as they have the 21st ranked rushing offense according to DVOA. And they rank 22nd in rushing offense in points expected from the running game, with a negative 3.17 total. But the good news is, they do commit to the run, ranking as the 2nd highest run rate in the league at 54%. So if commit is what we want then we will probably see that tonight with the Steelers.

Last week, Jaylen Warren actually saw more snaps then Najee Harris. But Harris dominated the touches with 21 to Warren’s 14. What we’re seeing is Warren taking more of a lead role now that he is healthy as his snap count and touches have gone up since his return. Therefore, of the two, I like Warren the most tonight and think he could have a breakout game. Harris will only find value if he lands in the endzone.

Tier 1: Jaylen Warren

Tier 2: Najee Harris

Wide Receiver

The return of Russell Wilson made George Pickens into a fantasy hero. He had his best outing of the year, putting up 25.1 fantasy points and recording 111 yards receiving on 5 catches with one TD. We’ll look for more of that from Pickens tonight as he becomes more of a downfield target with Wilson behind center. The Giants can be susceptible to the long ball as they allowed a completion of 24 yards or more in every game this season.

Several other Pittsburgh receivers got into the action last week as well, with Darnell Washington (TE) and Calvin Austin both seeing 4 targets each. Van Jefferson saw three. But the key was that Jefferson saw 62% of the snaps which was 12% more than Austin. That is 6 of 7 weeks that Jefferson has out-snapped his counterpart.

Tier 1: George Pickens

Tier 2: Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin

Cheap Options: N/A

Tight End

The Giants have been tough on TE’s, allowing just 246 yards on 28 receptions in 7 weeks of action. But Pittsburgh likes to use a lot of “12” personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR), getting both Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington over 50% snap counts last week (Pittsburgh has 9th highest usage of 12 personnel at 22%). Combined they saw 7 targets from Wilson and caught 6 of them for 87 yards. Because of the gap in salary, I do like Washington better tonight. But if you have the room, Freiermuth is always a trusted option in the Pittsburgh offense.

Tier 1: Pat Freiermuth

Tier 2: Darnell Washington

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like George Pickens or Malik Nabers. They also have the TD equity and big play potential compared to their peers which is important on FanDuel. Both QB’s could be an option too, as they make plays with their legs and there isn’t high star power in this game. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is George Pickens but I also like Daniel Jones, Malik Nabers, Russell Wilson and Wan’Dale Robinson.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: George Pickens, Malik Nabers

FDMVP Tier 2: Russell Wilson, Daniel Jones

FDMVP Tier 3: Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris, Wan’Dale Robinson, Pat Freiermuth

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: George Pickens, Malik Nabers, Daniel Jones, Russell Wilson

DK CPT Tier 2: Wan’Dale Robinson, Pat Freiermuth, Jaylen Warren

DK CPT Tier 3: Najee Harris, Darnell Washington, Tyrone Tracy, Steelers D

DK CPT Punt: 

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

  • Malik Nabers
  • George Pickens
  • Russell Wilson
  • Daniel Jones
  • Steelers D
  • Jaylen Warren
  • Wan’Dale Robinson
  • Pat Freiermuth

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

  • Najee Harris
  • Theo Johnson
  • Chris Boswell
  • Greg Joseph
  • Tyrone Tracy
  • Devin Singletary
  • Van Jefferson
  • Calvin Austin
  • Darnell Washington

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)

  • Daniel Bellinger
  • Jalin Hyatt

Best Rules for the slate:

  • The #1 WR’s have the most star power tonight as well as the best ability to break a big play. Must consider both Pickens and Nabers at CPT and in most of your lineups as a pair.
  • This is one night I could see a defense in the CPT position. The Steelers D is in the top 10 of yards allowed and DVOA. The Giants allowed 8 sacks last week and their O Line is a mess. I will play some lineups with the Steel Curtain as my CPT.
  • Even though it’s a tough matchup on paper, I think a Pittsburgh TE is in play. Don’t play both but either Freiermuth or Washington could emerge as receiver #2 on Pittsburgh.
  • I’m big on Jaylen Warren tonight. He adds another dimension to this offense. I’ll play him over Harris in a lot of my lineups.
  • Wan’Dale Robinson gets so many targets that he must be considered in all lineups. He won’t get you a ton of yards, but he’s going to see 8+ targets which gives him extreme value tonight.
  • I’m fading the Giants running game. But Tyrone Tracy at $4400 is worth a look. I’m not playing Singletary at $8400 and against this defense.
  • Both QB’s are in play. I like Jones slightly more but there is a risk of him being pulled if it gets out of hand. Happened last week though Drew Lock didn’t fare any better.
  • Both Kickers are in play – Total is just 36.5 and the weather is nice but there is some wind predicted. Kicking game could be a factor tonight.
  • I think the Giants could surprise tonight as they play better on the road. Therefore, in a contrarian move, don’t count out the Giants defense to put up some points.

Favorite prop for the game: Daniel Jones over 25.5 yards rushing (-110). TJ Watt will be in the backfield all day and I think Jones will hear footsteps and leave the pocket early.

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Eight

Dave Gloeckner
written by Dave Gloeckner

We took one on the chin last week as the public once again beat the books. But Thursday night showed hope, as the Rams won as despite getting only 22% of the bets. So we may be seeing a shift in the numbers. Therefore, we’ll stay consistent with our modeling and research and hopefully come out on the right side this weekend.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday. We did hit on all our pick last week with the Commanders.

NFL BETS WEEK 8 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 12-16)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +4.5 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Jags return to the states after two weeks in London. They left on a winning note, by beating the Patriots last weekend in Wembly Stadium. The Jags have been known to go on a run at least once a year under Doug Pederson, who looks to be coaching for his job. So could last week be the start of one? The big reason for this bet is the betting handle at the windows. The line in some books has moved down to +4 or +3.5. But the betting numbers show just 13% of tickets coming in on Jacksonville. Something smells here so I’m going to zag and go with the Jags.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +3.5 vs BUFFALO BILLS

The Bills are taking one of the longest road trips in the NFL and will have to go up against the Seahawks and their raucous crowd on Sunday. While the Bills have been trending upwards, I still think they are overrated to an extent. The addition of Amari Cooper helps but they still lack some key pieces. The Seahawks finally played a complete game last week in Atlanta and will look to bring that good mojo back to Seattle and pull off an upset of the Bills.

CHICAGO BEARS -1.5 at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

One team is coming off a bye and the other doesn’t know if their QB will be healthy enough to play. We all hope Jayden Daniels can suit up in this matchup of the top 2 picks in the NFL Draft. But I’m taking the rested team that had two weeks to prepare for Washington. Plus, the Bears defense looks great right now and I believe they can stifle this high flying Commanders offense.

DALLAS COWBOYS +4.5 at SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

Don’t ask me why. But I feel like the Cowboys are due for one of those put up or shut up games. This is the perfect spot as everyone is down on Jerry and his Boys.

SURVIVOR PICK

DETROIT LIONS

Best team in football against one of the worst teams. It doesn’t get easier than this. Famous last words.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NASCARPremium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop Rankings Cup Series: Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead 10/27/24

Matt Vecchio
written by Matt Vecchio

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the NASCAR Cup Series. In this article, I list my favorite plays in different categories to help you build your lineups for today’s race.

(Starting position in parenthesis)

(All pricing is for DK)

Lock:

Austin Cindric (36) – $7K

I’d presume Cindric is not going to win this race or even be a factor, but he should be one of the highest-scoring drivers at the race end. Cindric has finished top 20 in both of his starts at this track and his practice speed on Saturday was also top 20. I won’t say you MUST play Cindric, but he is cheap and could be one of the top DFS plays today.

Top Dominator Plays:

  • Tyler Reddick (1) – $10.5K
  • Christopher Bell (3) – $10.8K
  • Kyle Larson (2) – $11K
  • Denny Hamlin (4) – $9.8K

If you can make it work, I will recommend playing two of these drivers. Reddick and Larson are my favorites, but if you can’t find the extra $200 for Larson, Bell is a suitable pivot.

Place Differential Plays:

  • William Byron (25) – $10.3K
  • Ross Chastain (22) – $8.8K
  • AJ Allmendinger (32) – $7.3K
  • Ryan Blaney (20) – $10K
  • Brad Keselowski (18) – $8.4K
  • Chris Buescher (21) – $7.7K

GPP high upside options:

  • Bubba Wallace (8) – $7.8K
  • Alex Bowman (11) – $8K
  • Ty Gibbs (14) – $8.2K
  • Joey Logano (26) – $9.3K
  • Noah Gragson (16) – $7.4K

Logano would be considered a good PD play if he had a reason to push himself. Logano won last week locking himself into the Championship race in Phoenix. Also, they had power steering issues on Saturday and if those arise again, they won’t hesitate to call it a day.

Value Plays:

  • Todd Gilliland (31) – $5.8K
  • John Hunter Nemechek (29) – $6K
  • Harrison Burton (34) – $5.5K
  • Austin Dillon (30) – $6.7K
  • Ryan Preece (35) – $5.9K
  • Erik Jones (28) – $6.6K
NASCAR Best Bets:

(best odds and site in parenthesis)

Top Manufacturer Bets: (all on DK)

Longshot To Win:

Matchups:

(All bets are from DK)

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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 8

Joe DiCarlo
written by Joe DiCarlo

We are back for another breakdown as we are almost halfway through the NFL season. A full entree of 13 games to chop up and set out on the table for you to enjoy. Week 8 should be interesting since so many injuries to starters occurred, and their replacements are set to take on bigger roles in their perspective offenses. Not to mention some players who have been injured will be returning this week, so let’s get started.

Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.

Sunday Main Slate 10/27/24

Titans @ Lions (-10.5) (O/U 45)

We start off with the roaring Detroit Lions who are still licking their lips after handing Minnesota their first loss of the year. They host Tennessee, a team that just can’t seem to find the win column with a record of 1-5. It’s a huge spread with Detroit laying 10.5 and the total seems like it may take a dive closer to Sunday. Let’s see who we like in this matchup for DFS.

Don’t underestimate Tennessee’s defense by looking at their record. They’re fifth in rushing yards allowed (105 yards allowed per game) and third in passing yards allowed (186/game). Besides last week’s beat down by Josh Allen, the Titans have not defended any other competent quarterbacks all year. Jared Goff should get the job done once again, along with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are the best one-two punch at running back in football, un fadeable in my opinion. However, the Lions may be losing Jameson Williams to a suspension for two games, so the arrows are up for Khalif Raymond and Tim Patrick, great salary savers this weekend in tournaments.

Mason Rudolph did not move the marker any better than Will Levis last week, who got the start at quarterback, and the team is just nauseating to think of in regards to any type of offense on the road in Detroit. So we can’t invest in this passing game and Tony Pollard’s matchup is brutal, facing a Lions team that only allows 92 yards per game rushing. Let’s play it safe, stand clear of any Titans, and lock in the Lions DST.

Cash: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions DST

GPP: Jared Goff, Sam LaPorta, Khalif Raymond, Tim Patrick

Update: DeAndre Hopkins was traded to the Chiefs

Packers @ Jaguars (+4.5) (O/U 49.5)

This game has some shootout potential, a near 50-total with the Jags getting a few points at home against the Packers. Both quarterbacks have stepped up to their game, especially Jordan Love winning his third straight game. The contest should see plenty of warm weather with sunny skies, a perfect design for some points to get on the scoreboard. Can the Jags make it two wins in a row after flying back over the pond? We shall see.

Jordan Love does not play favorites, which is unusual for quarterbacks these days. He hits the open man. So roll him out nude and he’s good for 20 fantasy points, which he has averaged all season. But if you can stack him with a receiver, that would be even better. It’s a risky play since we never know where the ball is going in Green Bay, but Romeo Doubs has scored a touchdown and double-digit fantasy points in two straight games. The matchup is gold too, Jacksonville ranks in the bottom three of defending the pass, so roll out Doubs, Reed, Watson, or whoever your gut says will be a Love beneficiary.

The Jags left the pond with a win over the Pats, pulling it off by being down 10-0 at one point. They’ll need more from Trevor Lawrence, who is only completing 66% of his throws and averaging just two carries a game. The rookie Brian Thomas Jr. (17 YPR) and second-string running back Tank Bigsby (6.2 YPC) have been keeping the offense going as of late. Each has scored four times this season, but tight end Evan Engram has the better matchup against Green Bay’s 23rd-in DVOA coverage this week. The Packers have allowed five-plus catches per game at 56 yards a clip in seven games this season, take a shot on Engram in GPPs.

Cash: Jordan Love

GPP: Evan Engram, Brian Thomas Jr., Tank Bigsby, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft, Dontayvion Wicks

Colts @ Texans (-6) (O/U 46)

Next on the menu, we have an AFC South in Texas where the Colts will take on the Texans. The total is mid-range and the spread suggests Houston should walk out of the contest as victors. It’s a great bounce-back spot, mainly for CJ Stroud since scoring single-digit fantasy points last weekend. Although the Colts stroll in with a winning record at 4-3, they rank 31st in rushing yards allowed and 23rd in passing coverage. Indy has also been up and down offensively, which team will show this weekend?

The Texans rallied behind Joe Mixon against Green Bay in their loss, who put up another solid performance (124 TOT yards/2 TDs). We are going to let it ride with Mixon one more week against a Colts team that allows 159 yards per game in the trenches. Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell should also see production in this spot, but Stroud may not get to pay his salary if this game gets out of hand. If they do in fact keep Anthony Richardson and the Colts in check, the Texans DST are an option too this week.

Free Joe Flacco in Indianapolis. Anthony Richardson returned from a two-game stint to lead the Colts to victory, but it wasn’t from his quarterback play. He returned to pass for only 129 yards at 5.4 yards per attempt, so it’s not looking good this week against a Houston defense that is fourth in the league in rushing, and eighth in passing yards allowed. But there is some hope for Jonathan Taylor to return this week, if he does he is a GPP dart throw for a running back that sees 20-plus carries per game.

Cash: Joe Mixon

GPP: Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, CJ Stroud, Jonathan Taylor, Houston DST

Eagles @ Bengals (-3) (O/U 47.5)

I like this game on the slate, it’s a potential sleeper for a shootout. The total does not tell the entire potential game script in Cincinnati, as each team’s defenses are vulnerable to giving up big plays. The Eagles dominated the Giants last week, by showcasing their former bell cow up and down Met Life stadium as he ran for over 170 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals also had a cakewalk weekend in Week 7, beating up on the woeful Browns on their own turf by the hands of Joe Burrow. I’ll explain why this game could be crucial to take ownership of on the slate.

Philadelphia has been impenetrable on the front seven, but you can air the ball out on their secondary. Back in Week 4 Baker Mayfield threw for 347 yards and two touchdowns on that secondary, he had Godwin and Evans alongside him. This week Philly will see Burrow with Ja”Maar Chase and Tee Higgins on opposite sides of him. Imagine the fireworks display that we may be in store for. All three Bengals make the grade, with Chase Brown and Zack Moss also for goal line and hurry-up offense PPR work.

The Bengals however, have been awful at stopping the run. There are too many boxscores to list in this paragraph, but Derrick Henry, Chuba Hubbard, and rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr have all been RB 1’s in the weeks they ran against Cincinnati. Saquon Barkley will be a staple at running back this weekend once again, with Jalen Hurts also getting pushed into the endzone. A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith should see all the passing work with tight end Dallas Goedert sidelined, they will be great GPP options this week.

Cash: Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, Ja’Maar Chase

GPP: Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow, A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, Chase Brown, Zack Moss

Ravens @ Browns (+11.5) (O/U 44.5)

Baltimore hits the road again after putting up 41 in Tampa on Monday Night and will take on their division rival Browns. The spread is gross and the total is not enticing either, but here we are to take from what we are given. Cleveland’s 200-million dollar man Deshaun Watson is done for the year with a torn Achilles, but that may be good news for the team in general.

We’ve all just seen the highlights and on Monday Night Football, the Ravens are the real deal. Their success is based on running the football, thanks to Derrick Henry. The 30-year-old has averaged over six yards per carry, totaling 873 yards and ten touchdowns. He has only Lamar Jackson to thank because of his own rushing capabilities. And welcome back Mark Andrews, Lamar’s established tight end has been his go-to guy since his rookie season. Andrews was on a milk carton to begin the season, until his last two games as he caught three touchdowns.

Now the Browns will be having a changing of the guard at quarterback, and he should get a warm welcome from the home crowd. Jameis Winston has not been fantasy-relevant since 2022 until he tore his ACL, but he’ll get his shot at redemption on Sunday. It’s not the softest landing spot either as we witnessed two picks by the Raven’s secondary in the first half Monday night. Winston along with Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, Cedric Tillman, and David Njoku are all in play due to their inexpensive salaries against a Ravens’ pass-funnel defense that is impossible to run against (allows only 68 rushing yards per game)

Cash: Lamar Jackson, Derick Henry

GPP: Jameis Winston, Jerry Jeudy, Mark Andrews, David Njoku, Elijah Moore, Cedric Tillman, Ravens DST

Jets @ Patriots (+7) (O/U 41.5)

Aaron Rodgers and the Jets land in a get-right spot on the road in New England, a game they desperately need to win in order to stay in the playoff race. The Pats are back in the States after taking a beating over the pond against Jacksonville. If you want to take a bite out of this contest, I suggest taking the guys in green only. Let’s break it down.

Don’t let New York’s record fool you, if not for a couple of missed field goals this team would be sitting at 4-3. Now with one week under his belt with his former Packer teammate, Davante Adams will see a much better stat line against a Pats’ coverage that ranks 24th in DVOA to opposing wide receivers. Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, and Breece Hall should all be involved as well this Sunday as the Jets may use the Patriots as a punching bag this weekend and let out some frustration.

New York’s defense was a dumpster fire in Pittsburgh, but look for them to also land in a soft spot and put the clamps on Drake Maye and the Pats’ offense. They will be in front of a home crowd but using any Patriots’ skill players will be GPP Milli-Maker viable due to the ownership. If I were to take a shot at a Pat it would be Rhamondre Stevenson facing a Jets’ defense that has struggled to stop the run, allowing over 127 yards per game. A safer bet would be the Jets’ DST if you have the salary to pay up for.

Cash: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Jets DST

GPP: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, Rhamondre Stevenson

Cardinals @ Dolphins (-3) (O/U 47.5)

Miami will host the Cardinals in a game where we may finally see the Dolphins back to full strength offensively with the return of Tua Tagovailoa. Arizona fresh off their Monday night win against the Chargers is sitting pretty at 3-4 and working their way to a .500 record. It’s a decent total with a standard spread of home-field advantage at -3, let’s get right to it.

The Dolphins are desperate for Tua to suit up, as their offense has looked like a deer in headlights without him over the past six weeks. I haven’t seen Tyreek Hill at .$7K on DraftKings in years, if Tua is back we may have to jam Hill into all of our lineups at that price. Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane also fell down the ladder of affordability, you may want to consider them also, along with Tua himself.

Kyler Murray put the Cardinals on his back Monday night and carried them to a last-minute second by getting his team into field goal position. His legs played a big part in the game, rushing for 64 yards on six carries and a touchdown. He also has not been sacked in his last two games, which helps keep the offense on the field. Miami is ranked first in defending the pass, allowing the least amount of yards and touchdowns, which is bad news for Marvin Harrison and Trey McBride. A naked Kyler Murray or James Connor is the path to take this week in Arizona, Miami has allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns (9) so far this season at 4.6 yards allowed.

Cash: James Conner, Tyreek Hill

GPP: Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane, Trey McBride

Falcons @ Bucs (+2.5) (O/U 47.5)

Here we have an NFC South battle in Tampa, Florida as the Division lead will be handed to the winner, Both clubs sit with a record of 4-3, but the Bucs are in serious trouble as they lost both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin back on Monday. Meanwhile, in Atlanta, everything is roses. Although they lost to Seattle last week, the team is healthy and should bounce back this weekend.

The bloodshed is still fresh in our minds from watching Baltimore dismantle the Bucs’ defense by scoring 41 at the hands of Lamar Jackson’s five touchdown passes. It’s an open-and-shut case to fire more bullets at this Tampa defense. Drake London and Bijan are a lock along with Kirk Cousins. I have no problem with any Falcons this weekend actually, even the it defense gets a thumbs up as Tampa is short-handed at receiver.

Tampa is down, but don’t count them out yet. Baker Mayfield still has a cannon of an arm and is not afraid to use it. He leads the league in passing touchdowns with 18, and second in yardage. Who will be on the other end of these throws? Well expect a receiver-by-committee approach, including all three running backs, so keep them all in tournaments. Tight end Cade Otton went bananas (8 receptions for 100 yards) in garbage time last week when Godwin went down after Evans, he could very well be the target monster after all of the injuries.

Cash: Kirk Cousins, Drake London, Bijan Robinson, Baker Mayfield, Cade Otton

GPP: Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard, Trey Palmer

Bills @ Seahawks (+3) (O/U 47.5)

Here we have another game to invest in for DFS. The revamped Buffalo Bills offense hits the road to take on the Seahawks and the tough crowd of Seattle. Both teams sit on top of their divisions and look to stay there in a game that foresees back-and-forth scoring action. Grabbing each side of this matchup could be a solid path across the pay lines, let’s check it out.

Seattle only allows 200 passing yards per game, but that number exists only because opposing teams have been successful running the ball, as they allow nearly 150 yards per game. I would not be afraid of this secondary and be willing to roll out any Bills receivers alongside Josh Allen. James Cook should also have a great turnout, both Cash game options. Tight ends Dalton Kincaid has been limited and Dawson Knox has a DNP this week, so monitor them closely.

Buffalo is in the same boat defensively, as they’ve been gashed by running backs and allowing over 130 yards per game at 5.2 yards a clip. If the Seahawks can get the ball rolling with Kenneth Walker, who has been balling out in 2024 (3rd in TOT TDs with 7, 2nd in catches with 23), then Geno could carve up a beat-up Bills defense that may miss DTs Terrel Bernard and DaQuon Jones this week. Keep an eye on DK Metcalf on the injury reports, if he can’t suit up Tyler Lockett, JSN, and Noah Fant will see a bump in target share.

Cash: Josh Allen, James Cook, Kenneth Walker

GPP: Geno Smith, Amari Cooper, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, DK Metcalf (if healthy), JSN

Update: DK Metcalf is doubtful

Chiefs @ Raiders (+9.5) (O/U 42)

The undefeated Chiefs will fly into Sin City to play the Raiders in an AFC West matchup with an ugly total of 42. The spread is extremely lopsided favoring the Chiefs, mainly because of the bone-crushing KC defense and the porta john offense of Las Vegas. We are used to scrolling straight to the Chiefs for DFS week to week, but not this time around, here is why.

If Vegas scores more than 13 points this week I’ll be surprised, Chris Jones and Trent McDuffie have suffocated every team in their path this season allowing 20 or more points only twice. They will be forced to roll out Gardner Minshew, who they benched, due to Aiden O’Connell landing on IR. Minshew sits on top of the league with eight picks, a number that may get higher after this week. The only Raiders I would consider against KC would be Alexander Mattison, who has taken control of the backfield, and tight end Brock Bowers who has become their number-one passing option.

The Chiefs have a shiny new toy and his name is DeAndre Hopkins. The news broke early Tuesday morning as he was traded from the Titans, becoming the latest wide receiver to switch teams mid-season. He is on pace to play, and Andy Reid will call the plays to send the ball in his direction to see what he acquired. If this game plays out the way most anticipate, we should see plenty of Kareem Hunt eating up the clock in the second half and Pat Mahomes spreading the ball around to gain an early lead.

Cash: Chiefs DST, Kareem Hunt, Brock Bowers

GPP: Pat Mahomes, Travis Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins, Alexander Mattison

Saints @ Chargers (-7) (U/O 39.5)

The 2-5 Saints head out to California to face the Chargers and will still be without quarterback Derek Carr. LA welcomes New Orleans over on Sunday wit a warm welcome and looks to exploit their deteriorated defensive line. It’s a touchdown spread with a total under 40, this could be ugly for fantasy. There’s always a route to take for DFS in every game though, let’s dive in.

The Saints will send out Spencer Rattler one more time, and boy I am licking my chops at the Chargers DST this weekend. Rattler has not delivered at quarterback and still needs to be groomed for obvious reasons. His decision-making is one of them, as he has thrown two picks to one touchdown in two games, and completed passes at only 5.5 yards per attempt. LA is ranked first in points allowed, with six interceptions under their belt already, 13 sacks, and four fumble recoveries. I want no part of any Saints this weekend, even though Chris Olave and Taysom Hill are trending towards playing this week, if Hill plays we may see him take over the QB position.

New Orleans has been destroyed across the board defensively as they rank 28th in passing yardage, 30th in rushing, and average well over 23 points allowed per game. Harbaugh and the Chargers are firm believers in running the football and tossing it out to their tight ends. JK Dobbins and Will Dissly/Hayden Hurst will flourish in this game. This may be the last time we see Dobbins under $7K on DraftKings so take him before the price goes up down the road.

Cash: JK Dobbins, Chargers DST

GPP: Will Dissly, Hayden Hurst (if both are healthy), Taysom Hill

Panthers @ Broncos (-8) (U/O 43.5)

Denver will sit in the driver’s seat on the road to victory as they will host the single-win Panthers. It will be one of the most lopsided games on the slate as the Broncos rank in the top five in almost all the categories including total defense and points allowed. Bryce Young will be back under center, which could be a tougher pill to swallow for all Panther fans. We’ll pick the pieces for you to decide on to put in your lineups.

Low totals with spreads at a touchdown or higher equal running backs and defenses to target for fantasy. Javonte Williams and the Denver defense make absolute sense this weekend, stacking both in your lineup will have you sleeping like a baby Saturday night before the slate kicks off. The Panthers have allowed 27 total touchdowns so far this season, ranking dead last in points allowed, rushing yardage and touchdowns. All the Broncos are viable this weekend including their defense.

Bryce Young will be thrown back to the wolves since Andy Dalton bruised his thumb in a car accident. What a matchup he gets, Denver on the road. He may also be without his number one receiver Diontae Johnson due to some bruised ribs, which could lead to stacked boxes for Chuba Hubbard. Stay away from the Panthers this weekend against one of the best defenses in football.

Cash: Javonte Williams, Denver DST

GPP: Bo Nix

Update: Diontae Johnson is out

Bears @ Commanders (+2.5) (U/O 44)

To wrap up the Breakdown it will be a showdown between the number one and number two overall picks in this year’s draft. Caleb Williams will look to continue the Bears’ hot streak against The Commanders, who hope Jayden Daniels will be healthy enough to play. Williams has not practiced all week with a rib injury, which would give Marcus Mariota the start in case he can’t suit up. Let’s look into the final game of the slate.

The number one-ranked offense in points scored of the Commanders may be tough sledding this weekend, especially without Jayden Daniels. The Bears rank fourth in total defense and only allow 180 passing yards per game, with only four touchdowns. Look for Washington to focus on moving the football on the ground behind one of the strongest offensive lines in the league. Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler are GPP backs this week and Jayden Daniels of course will be usable if he plays. If we get Mariotta, use the Commanders’ receiving core with caution.

Chicago on the other hand has a great matchup, as Washington is not frugal at all when it comes to scoring on them. Diontae Johnson and Zay Flowers feasted on this upcoming secondary of Washington, which is 26th in DVOA to opposing wide receivers. They’ve also been friendly to opposing backs, allowing just under five yards per carry. DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet, and Rome Odunze get the thumbs up and are all in play for GPPs. D’Andre Swift has re-emerged finally, scoring over 20 fantasy points in his last three games, which cements him in cash games because of his low $6K price tag on DraftKings. Stack your Bears or roll Caleb out nude, either way, you should be golden on the slate.

Cash: D’Andre Swift, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels (if healthy)

GPP: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet, Rome Odunze, Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler, Chicago DST (if Daniels is out)

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 8! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content up until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

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Thursday Night Showdown Strategy: Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams

David Jones
written by David Jones

Week 8 of the NFL season starts with the Minnesota Vikings traveling to LA to take on the Rams. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

I prefer a correlated lineup build that tells a compelling game story – a strategy that has proven to
win more often than not. For a deeper dive into my general showdown rules, make sure to check
out my “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s
essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can
impact each game’s approach.

Link To Strategy Article: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:
I tend to not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to
cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

Minnesota Vikings

Running Back

  • The Rams allow 25.6 fantasy points to running backs per game
  • They are ranked 26th in DVOA against the run 
  • They have allowed 6 rushing TDs
  • They have allowed the 12th most yards on the ground

The numbers are telling us we need to invest heavily in the Vikings offense. Aaron Jones is going to be a key piece. This is a guy who tends to show up in Primetime games, in a Sombrero, and do enough to make an optimal lineup. I will make plenty of Jefferson, Jones, and Darnold stacks. Jones is a main lineup kind of guy. 

Ty Chandler backed up Jones and played 18% of snaps, in a close game last week. In blowout games, he will should have the opportunity to run out the clock. He is a decent punt. Cam Akers should only get in if it is a major blowout. I probably fade him. 

Let’s hope we don’t get vulture by fullback C.J. Ham because I will not have much if any. 

  • Tier 1: Aaron Jones
  • Good Punt: Ty Chandler
  • Fades: Cam Akers, C.J. Ham

Wide Receiver

  • The Rams allow 31.2 fantasy points per game, combined with wide receivers (shockingly low)
  • They are ranked 24th in DVOA against the pass
  • They have given up 7 passing TDs to the position (10 total including TE)
  • They are targeted through the air at the third-lowest rate in the league

You lock Justin Jefferson in every lineup. 

For the next best option at WR for the Vikings we have to rely on target share because the corner for the Rams are giving up almost identical numbers as far as YPCC goes. Jordan Addison has a 16.8% target share compared to Jalen Nailor’s 11.6% target share. Addison also leads in YPRR and Air Yards. I guess he is my next choice but this isn’t a “hard take”. Either one is fine to stack with Sam Darnold. I know that isn’t what you want to hear but that is the truth. If you can not make up your mind on which one to play, make a second lineup and swap the receivers. 

  • Tier 1: Justin Jefferson
  • Tier 2: Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor

Punts: Brandon Powell, and Trent Sherfield (both under 10% snap rate last week and were only involved when Jordan Addison was injured)

Tight End

  • The Rams allow the second most fantasy points to tight ends in the NFL (16.3 fantasy points per game)
  • They have allowed 33 receptions on 39 targets
  • They have given up 3 touchdowns

We will have to wait on the T.J. Hockenson news, as I am writing this Wednesday night. I don’t see why they would bring him back, against the Rams, unless he was a full go. If he is active I will address him in Discord but I will be writing up this position as if he is out. 

Johnny Mundt plays the most (68%) last week and gets steady targets for a low-caliber tight end. He is only $2,800 and fine to play. Josh Oliver would be the only other active TE (if Hockenson is out). He played 58% last week. That is a lot for a $1,800 player. He has three targets in the past three games. It is encouraging playing time, but he is still a deep punt. 

  • Tier 1: Johnny Mundt
  • Punt: Josh Oliver

Los Angeles Rams

Running Back

  • The Vikings are ranked 1st in DVOA against the run
  • Allow 20.6 fantasy points per game
  • Allow 3 rushing touchdowns
  • Allow the 4th fewest yards on the ground

The Vikings are elite at stopping the run. Kyren Williams is the clear lead back and has been carrying this team on his back with the loss of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Well, Kupp is expected back and if you look at the first two games of the season, where Kupp played (50% of snaps in the second game he got hurt), the DraftKings score coupled with him being the second-highest priced player on the slate, leans more towards going light on Williams. Also, the Vikings are the best run defense in the league. It just doesn’t add up for Williams. He can certainly break any slate, but there isn’t a world where I play him over Justin Jefferson. 

Blake Corum is the backup but hasn’t been used in the pass-catching role. He is cheap but he is largely off my radar aside from a punt where I have the salary left. Ronnie Rivers hasn’t played the last two games as he has clearly been passed by Corum on the depth chart. 

  • Tier 2: Kyren Williams
  • Punt: Blake Corum 

Wide Receiver

  • The Vikings are ranked 1st in DVOA against the pass
  • They somehow still allow the most fantasy points to wide receivers in the NFL (46.5)
  • They have allowed 7 passing touchdowns 
  • They have given up the second most receptions (likely due to the game script)

Update: Puka Nacua could play. We are just going to have to wait and see. If there are no restrictions on his playing time you force on of him or Kupp in every lineup. 

It seems Cooper Kupp is back and he will obviously get all the targets he can handle. He will take back his Rams slot role and lead all Rams receivers in all categories. He is a fantastic play. It gets weird after him. As of now, there are 4 total active Rams receivers on the team. Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson should get the most playing time, but Tutu Atwell will still be involved. 

Robinson and Johnson, as do the Vikings’ corners, both flip from the right to the left. I don’t know who will see Byron Murphy the most due to how both teams operate their different schemes, but that is who we want to target. It is usually easy to distinguish, but that isn’t the case this Thursday. 

I am aware that Byron Murphy has covered Kupp well in the slot in past seasons, but I don’t think we will see much of that tonight. Josh Metellus has been covering the slot on 85% of routes.  

  • Tier 1: Cooper Kupp
  • Tier 2: Demarcus Robinson, Tyler Johnson
  • Tier 3: Tutu Atwell

Tight End

  • The Vikings allow 11.7 fantasy points per game to TE (middle of the league)
  • They have given up 2 touchdowns to the position.

Colby Parkinson is the third most reliable pass catcher on the team at this point. His salary of $4,400 is doable, and if the Rams get in the red zone, he or Cooper Kupp should get the first look. He is palatable on showdown lineups, and you could do worse on your main. If I made three hand-built teams, he would be on at least one. 

Hunter Long and Davis Allen are purely punts. With Kupp back and think Davis Allen’s playing time will be dialed way back. Long has three catches in the past two games and Allen has none (2 targets) on the season. Long will be reserved for very deep punts and I can’t imagine I have more than 2% if any. 

  • Tier 1: Colby Parkinson
  • Punts: Hunts Long, Davis Allen (more likely to fade)

FanDuel MVP Picks –TNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value.  The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

  • FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones 
  • FanDuel MVP Tier 2:  Sam Darnold, Cooper Kupp
  • FanDuel MVP Tier 3: Kyren Williams, Matt Stafford (moves up if Puka plays), Puka
  • DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Justin Jefferson
  • DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Cooper Kupp, Aaron Jones, Puke Nacua 
  • DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Sam Darnold, Matt Stafford (better if Puke plays)
  • Punts: I will probably punt with Addison, Nailor, Robinson, and Johnson if I need more lineups
  • Best Value: Demarcus Robinson (if Puka is out), Johnny Mundt – if Hockeson is out

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

Puka Nacua is min priced on FanDuel. You lock him if he plays.

  • Justin Jefferson
  • Aaron Jones
  • Sam Darnold
  • Cooper Kupp
  • Matt Stafford (better if Puka plays)
  • Puka Nacua (if active)
  • Kyren Williams
  • Joshua Karty
  • Jordan Addison
  • Will Reichard
  • Colby Parkinson
  • Jalen Nailor
  • Demarcus Robinson
  • Tyler Johnson
  • Tutu Atwell (Johnson and Atwell get demoted if Puka plays)
  • Johnny Mundt (gets demoted a tier if Hockenson plays)
  • Vikings D

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

  • Ty Chandler 
  • Blake Corum
  • Hunter Long
  • Rams D
  • Josh Oliver (gets demoted if Hockenson plays)
  • Cam Akers

Fadeable Flex Punts: (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

  • Xaiver Smith – is unplayable if Puka plays
  • Davis Allen
  • CJ Ham

Best Rules for the slate:

  • Lock in Justin Jefferson
  • Lock Puka Nacua on FanDuel (he is min priced)
  • Lock in Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua on DraftKings (if Puka plays, if he doesn’t then you don’t “have to lock Kupp”
  • I will be heavy on Aaron Jones
  • Lock in a QB, preference is Stafford if Puka plays. I will have a relatively even amount of both. – There will be few teams on 150 of my teams that don’t have a QB
  • Lock in a kicker, as always, on DraftKings only. 
  • I will be overweight on the Viking’s D, espically if Puka is out
  • Don’t play your MVP QB against the opposing defense (unless it is Cooper Kupp)
  • Stack your kicker with at least one skill player
    • Someone has to move the ball down the field
  • Don’t play more than 1 TE per team, per lineup
  • Don’t play more than 1 Rams RB, if any
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MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL STRATEGY: TWO GAME CLASSIC SLATE (BALT @ TAMPA / LAC @ ARIZ)

Dave Gloeckner
written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 7 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And we have another special one tonight as the NFL gives us two Monday night games for our viewing, and betting, pleasure. Therefore, this article will take a right turn from its normal form where we focused solely on showdowns. Instead, we’ll look at the combined two game slate and see if we can build a strategy to bring home a winning lineup in a classic format. I’m still providing showdown thoughts at the end of the article for those looking at the typical one game builds. With that said, let’s dive into two intriguing matchups featuring the Ravens at Dolphins in the early game and the Chargers at the Cardinals slated for the later time slot. Note, the Chargers/Cardinals game is an exclusive ESPN+ streaming game.

Remember there are different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, so ensure you keep that in mind when building your winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

NOTE: The totals in the two games tonight are 6 points apart. We have the best game stack environment is Baltimore/Tampa Bay as that total is set at 50 points. The Chargers/Cardinals game has a total of 44 so it’s still a good place to go for smaller stacks.

QUARTERBACK

We have four QB’s to choose from tonight in the two-game slate. But the reality is, two are starting QB’s in the NFL, one is a career backup and journeyman, and the other is a 2nd year turnover machine. But because of skewed ownership on the former two, we must look at all the details and matchups to see what makes the most sense for our builds.

LAMAR JACKSON ($8000 DK) – The reigning NFL MVP is always in play on any card. But when you have one as short as this, with just 2 games, he’s the top arm to target. Especially when you factor in his matchup against the Bucs who have allowed the 4th most passing yards/game in the NFL at 252.3. And it doesn’t stop there, as the Bucs are allowing 113.3 yard/game on the ground (19th in NFL). But the key here is their play against other mobile QB’s, as they’ve allowed 187 yards rushing to signal callers. This includes a 16 carry, 88 yard performance by Jayden Daniels. So there is room for LJack to run against the Bucs too thus raising his fantasy potential.

BAKER MAYFIELD ($6800 DK) – There are only 3 teams allowing more yards passing than the Bucs. And the Ravens are one of those. Baltimore allows the most passing yards per game at 275.5. And with the weapons at Baker’s disposal, he should be able to carve up a weak Ravens secondary. And as far as this season goes, Baker is top 10 in passing yards as he averages 248.2 per game. He’s also tied for the lead league with 15 passing TD’s. Therefore, Baker is a great play for tonight in what could be a shootout in Tampa.

KYLER MURRAY ($6500 DK) – Murray looks to have the toughest matchup of the four QB’s tonight as the Chargers have a top 5 defense in almost all metrics. This includes allowing a league low in 13.2 points/game. But one thing to consider is that Murray has most of his weapons fully healthy, including Marvin Harrison Jr and Trey McBride. And the Chargers have played just one top 15 QB in this league, Patrick Mahomes, which means they’ve feasted on lesser competition. So I do encourage some lineups with Murray as we’re seeing him projected as the lowest owned QB, at just 11%. It’s always a good idea to zag in smaller slates.

JUSTIN HERBERT ($5500 DK) – The issue with Herbert isn’t talent. We all know he has a big arm and can make plays with his legs. But it’s the weapons and style of play of the Chargers, which limits Herbert’s fantasy ceiling. He’s averaging just 11.4 fantasy points per game and hasn’t surpassed 13.7 points in any game. Yet his numbers are looking good as he has a 6-to-1 touchdown to INT ratio. The other factor to consider is that LA plays at the slowest pace in the league, averaging a full 30 seconds per snap. And they run at the 3rd highest rate in the league, thus keeping the clock moving on a consistent basis. The matchup and salary are tempting, but I’m going to focus on the other three QB’s for my two-game slates.

Tier 1: LAMAR JACKSON, BAKER MAYFIELD

Tier 2: KYLER MURRAY

RUNNING BACK

The RB position is filled with tough decisions tonight. We’ll be focusing on matchups for our back usage tonight.

DERRICK HENRY ($8000 DK) – The Ravens run the ball at the highest rate in the league and average an eye-opening 205.3 yards per game on the ground. There’s no question Henry is the #1 back on this small slate. You could even pair him with Lamar Jackson and soak up all the 200 yards this team is projected to gain on the ground.

JAMES CONNER ($6600 DK) – Conner is either hit or miss this season. When he’s faced rushing defenses in top 15 in rushing yards allowed, he’s averaged just 8.2 fantasy points per game. In the other three games, he’s averaging 21 fantasy points per game. Well, the Chargers are 6th in rush defense, so I’m fading Conner tonight in most lineups as I think there are better spots at better prices,

J.K. DOBBINS ($6400 DK) – Great back with a great price and matchup tonight. The Chargers RB is averaging 5.4 yards/carry and 17 fantasy points per game. Arizona allows the 9th most points to RB’s.

RACHAAD WHITE ($5700 DK) – I won’t play White tonight. He’s status is questionable and he may not play. But even if he does, he’s up against a team allowing just 59 yards/game. White is averaging just 3.6 yards/carry this season and will not find room on the ground against a tough Ravens front.

BUCKY IRVING ($5900 DK) – My amount of exposure to Irving will vary based on White’s status. While I don’t like White against the Ravens, I do think Irving could find some room as he’s averaging 5.7 yards/carry. He’s also a threat as a catcher, which is an area that the Ravens are susceptible, allowing 4.3 receptions per game to RB’s (16th most in league).

SEAN TUCKER ($5900 DK) – Tucker is only in play if White doesn’t suit up. He had a great week as a backup to Irving. But he still saw just 38% of the snaps and some of that was due to the game being out of hand in the 4th quarter. As of note, he had 0 snaps the last time White and Irving were both healthy (week 5).

KIMANI VIDAL ($4400 DK) – The Chargers RB has been promoted due to Gus Edwards injury. And he provided a nice fantasy spark with 13.1 points in last week’s game at Denver. He saw only 24% of the snaps, but that should go up tonight as he’s had more time practicing with the first team. He’s a good salary saver for GPP’s.

EMARI DEMARCADO ($4000 DK) – Demarcado out-snapped James Conner almost 2 to 1 last week. That was most likely because of score, but when he was in, the Cards tried to get him the ball. Demarcado had the second most targets on the team at 7. He could be a nice change-up against an aggressive Chargers D.

Tier 1: DERRICK HENRY, JK DOBBINS

Tier 2: BUCKY IRVING, JAMES CONNER

Wide Receiver

CHRIS GODWIN ($7400 DK) – Godwin has been a fantasy superstar this year with 21.7 points/game. Coming into Week 7, he led the league in receptions with 43. He can take that lead again with just 5 catches tonight, which shouldn’t be an issue versus the worst pass defense in the league. I like Godwin over Evans, due to him consistently getting targets (9 per game) but I will see some lineups with both.

MIKE EVANS ($730000 DK) – Evans is tied with his counterpart, Chris Godwin, for the team lead in receiving TD’s with 5. But he has 18 less receptions on just 11 less targets. This just shows the difficulty in the routes and balls that are thrown Evans way. But Baltimore has allowed the second most points to fantasy WR’s so he’s a top 2 target on tonight’s slate.

MARVIN HARRISON JR ($7000 DK) – Maybe Kyler Murray really doesn’t like Harrison Jr. He’s had three weeks of 2 catches or less (with last week’s game shortened by injury). But if they are going to contend, and win games against tough teams, he’ll need to send the ball Harrison’s way tonight. I still think the salary is a bit high for the matchup and lack of volume. He can bust one at any time but I prefer the other passing options for the Cards.

ZAY FLOWERS ($6700 DK) – Flowers has two straight games of at least 25 fantasy points. He’s seeing on average 7 targets per game. And he gets to against a defense that is allowing the 4th most points to WR’s.

LADD MCCONKEY ($4900) / QUENTIN JOHNSON ($4600 DK) / JOSH PALMER ($4400 DK) – Of the Chargers trio, I like Josh Palmer the most tonight. He saw just three targets last week but was matched up against Patrick Surtain for most of the game. I expect him to be WR #1 for LAC as he has the best repoire with QB Justin Herbert. It looks like Johnson will miss tonight. If he does, that opens up McConkey to see the field in most 2 WR sets. So his value goes up without Johnson.

SIMI FEHOKO ($3000 DK) – A pure shot in the dark but Fehoko did see more targets than Palmer and Johnson last week and turned that into 6.4 DK points.

Of note, MICHAEL WILSON ($4700 DK) is my favorite Cardinals WR. He’s been very consistent in the past four weeks, averaging almost 11 fantasy points per game in those contests. But keep an eye on ZAY JONES ($4500 DK) as he’s scheduled to make his Cardinals debut tonight.

Tier 1: CHRIS GODWIN, MIKE EVANS, ZAY FLOWERS

Tier 2: MICHAEL WILSON, JOSH PALMER,

TIER 3: MAVIN HARRISON JR, RASHOD BATEMAN, LADD MCCONKEY, ZAY JONES, STERLINE SHEPARD

Tight End

With have some big name TE’s on the slate. Baltimore has allowed the 24th most points to TE’s so that raises the value of Cade Otton. But you won’t want to pair him with all the Bucs receivers. So get creative there. I think Mark Andrews recent resurgence puts him ahead of Likely in my pecking order. Anytime Murray plays, McBride is in a smash spot.

Tier 1: TREY MCBRIDE, CADE OTTON

Tier 2: MARK ANDREWS, ISAIAH LIKELY, WILL DISSLY

DEFENSE

I prefer the defenses in the later game and am hoping the earlier game is a shootout.

Tier 1: LA CHARGERS, ARIZONA CARDINALS 

Tier 2: BALTIMORE RAVENS

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—MNF Showdown 

Now that you have our multi game strategy, we’re also providing a quick thought on the single game breakdowns.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I’ll target similar names to the FanDuel MVP’s above as they have the highest usage rate available.

Best Rules for the slate (BALT at TAMPA):

  • Play at least two WR’s tonight in your lineups, preferably three. Both pass defenses are vulnerable.
  • It’s unlikely you’ll have room for both QB’s and solid pass catchers. In showdown, the salaries are much closer so I favor Lamar. But try to fit at least one QB in your build.
  • We are looking for a shootout, so I’m fading both defenses. Ravens are the only one I’d consider since they’ve racked up 19 sacks this year.
  • Derrick Henry is a beast, but I’ll be on the lower side of ownership so I can fit in the passing weapons. He’s still in play though, obviously. I’ll just be less than the predicted rate of 70%.
  • Kickers baby! Both are in play due to the high pace of both teams.
  • My favorite TE is Cade Otton with Mark Andrews as my #2. Both are cheaper than Likely.
  • Keep an eye on Sterline Shepard. He’s clearly the 3rd WR for TB and is at a good price.
  • If White is out, I will play more of Irving. I think he’s crucial in spacing the field for Tampa.

Best Rules for the slate (LAC at ARZ):

  • My favorite CPT for this game is Trey McBride. But I’ll also consider J.K. Dobbins, Kyler Murray and Josh Palmer.
  • Don’t fret the matchup, Kyler Murray needs to have a good game coming off a poor one at Green Bay. I believe he can do so as LA hasn’t faced many premiere QB’s this year.
  • Kristian Fulton is one of the top DB’s in the league. He could give Harrison some fits but I still like the former Buckeye in Flex positions. I don’t think he gets for volume for CPT but can break one at any time.
  • Chargers WR’s are priced well. I won’t want to play more than one in any of my lineups, unless it’s Fehoko as my 2nd as he is just $1800 and needs just 6+ points to pay off his value.
  • Both kickers are in play but I would only play one in my lineups.
  • The defenses are in play as well, with the Cardinals my preference as they’ve forced 8 turnovers this year.
  • One name to keep in mind is Emari Demarcado. Any injury or change in game environment could force the Cards to use Demarcado, and if they do so he’s a threat in the passing game.

Favorite prop for the games: To be posted by 5pm EST.

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFLSports BettingPremium

NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Seven

Dave Gloeckner
written by Dave Gloeckner

Here we go! Well, at least it’s a quiet week from that standpoint as the Cowboys are off on a bye. But we did assess the Cowboys correctly last week as we were all over the Lions who thrashed Dallas in a beatdown for the ages. However, once again, a middling week as we are stuck in neutral with a 2-2 mark. Don’t fret, as I’m confident the wins are coming, and I’m feeling really good about the card in Week 7. If you didn’t see the news, the books got hammered last week and took a massive beating to the public. Overall, the public went 11-2-1. Which probably explains my 2-2 record because I’m normally zigging against the public. So you know what that means, Vegas is due for a big one which could be perfectly aligned with my zags below.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday. We did hit on all of our picks last week including the Eagles. Which is good news because frankly, they stink. So getting the Birds out of the way will help pave the way to success here going forward.

NFL BETS WEEK 7 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 11-13)

TENNESSEE TITANS +9.5 at BUFFALO BILLS

The Titans are bad, but mainly because of their QB play. Because of that, they are shifting gears and moving off of Will Levis and handing the reigns to Mason Rudolph. The latter has played one game this season, in relief, and propelled the Titans to their lone victory over the Dolphins. Rudolph has proved he can play in this league and gives the Titans a much better chance than the Mayonnaise King (Will Levis).

Also, we’re seeing 88% of the money coming in on Buffalo. That’s the highest amount for any team on the slate tomorrow. We saw the public win last week but I don’t see it happening two weeks in a row. Also, Buffalo is coming off a Monday night game and on a short week which is always a bettors angle to take. So I’ll fade the herd and back the Titans in a game where I expect them to be competitive throughout.

GREEN BAY PACKERS -2.5 vs HOUSTON TEXANS

The Texans looked to get back on track last week with a convincing win over the Patriots. But the key part of this is they did it against a very bad team in New England. And it was QB Drake Maye’s first career start which exemplified the precarious condition of the Patriots. On the other hand, the Packers took care of business at home against a Cardinals team that was coming off a thrilling victory against the 49ers. In that game, the Packers outgained the Cards by 134 yards and won the turnover battle 3 to 1.

The Packers are seeing just 17% of the money as of this writing. The public is very high on the 5-1 Texans but I think the better team resides on the other sideline. I’ll back the Pack to continue their winning streak and get their 3rd straight victory this Sunday at Lambeau Field.

MIAMI DOLPHINS +3.5 at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

The Colts are dreadful on defense. The Dolphins are returning from a BYE week and saw plenty of film on the 19th ranked defense according to DVOA. While I have questions about HC Mike McDaniel, he had a full week to prepare for the Colts which should bode well for his team. And he gets the luxury of having RB De’von Achane return to the lineup who missed the last 1.5 games with a concussion.

The Colts are welcoming the return of a star on their side too, as QB Anthony Richardson is expected to start. But he’s struggled mightily this season completing just 50.6% of his passes and throwing 6 INT’s to just 3 TD’s. They will also be without RB Jonathan Taylor which is a big deal as Miami ranks 31st in rushing defense DVOA.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -1.5 vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

This is all about Super Bowl revenge. The Eagles beat the Chiefs last year in a similar role. And the 49ers are desperate for a win. I like San Fran to play their best game of the season this week and start getting on a role towards the top of the NFC once again.

SURVIVOR PICK

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

While I do think the Commanders are a playoff contender, they aren’t an easy team to take in Survivor based on their upcoming schedule and opponents. But this is the week that we have an opportunity to check off a middle of the pack team. That’s because Washington is hosting the worst team in football this week in the Carolina Panthers. Daniels should have his way and help lead the Commanders to their 5th win on the season and help Washington stay atop the NFC East.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFLDaily Fantasy SportsFootballPremium

NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 7

Joe DiCarlo
written by Joe DiCarlo

We are back for Week 7’s Breakdown and could not be more excited for Daily Fantasy this weekend. The cream keeps rising to the top here, as we deliver gems such as Tank Dell and Bucky Irving into your DFS lineups from week into week out. Week 7 will be 10 games again, as London and teams on Bye shrink the Main Slate up yet again. Keep it here and let’s cut right to it, the Breakdown for Week 7’s ten-game slate is here in Mid-October!

Stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice on Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.

Sunday Main Slate 10/20/24

Lions @ Vikings (-2.5) (O/U 50)

Detroit flies out to Minnesota for an NFC North battle with the 5-0 Vikings. We can expect a ton of ownership in this game, with a 50-point total between two powerhouse offenses, this contest holds weight. Detroit looked unstoppable on the road in Dallas, winning decidedly 49-6, while Minnesota had the week on bye.

The Lions’ offense has been off the charts since the start of the season and shows no signs of pumping the brakes. The league’s number-one-ranked scoring offense is in the top five in passing and rushing touchdowns scored. Although they face the number-one-ranked rushing defense in Minnesota, we can’t pivot away from the one-two punch of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs running behind a top-five offensive line. The better matchup lies in the air with Jared Goff (Minnesota ranks 30th in passing yards allowed, and 23rd in passing touchdowns).

What can we say negatively about those unbeaten Vikings? Their record speaks for itself. Sam Darnold (#1 in red zone completion percentage 72%) has been flawless in leading Kevin O’Connell’s offense. He’ll have a heck of a matchup against Detroit’s pass funnel offense (27th in DVOA), and throwing to Justin Jefferson who will be mismatched against Detroit’s Carlton Davis (+23% coverage rating). Jordan Addison will also be involved more since running back Aaron Jones is set to miss some time. Ty Chandler and the recently acquired Cam Akers will be available to pick up the slack, but Chandler should see the bulk of the work.

Cash: Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown

GPP: David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Ty Chandler (if Aaron Jones is out), Jared Goff, Sam Darnold, Jameson Williams, Jordan Addison, Sam LaPorta

Texans @ Packers (-2.5) (O/U 47.5)

Houston will take on the Packers at Lambeau in what appears to be another high-scoring game between two of the most prominent and up-and-coming football teams. Both clubs can put up points and at the same time keep their opposition off the field with their stout defenses. It’ll be a game to be recognized for in DFS, with its Vegas line giving us an indication of some back-and-forth scoring in a near fifty total.

Houston is still loaded with firepower, even though top wideout Nico Collins was recently placed on IR. The offense was moving on all cylinders in New England last weekend, with Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs each catching touchdowns from C.J. Stroud, as well as Joe Mixon scoring two himself after returning from a three-game hiatus. With a record of 5-1, rest easy using any of these Texans for DFS, especially their receiving options since Green Bay allows over 225 passing yards per game (25th in DVOA).

The Packers looked back to full capacity last week, as Jordan Love put up over 25 fantasy points with ease against Arizona. The Texans have been tough on paper defensively (4th in passing yardage allowed), but their schedule has been cake early in the season. Love will be a lock again for Cash games, but his receiving core should be played in tournaments only, since he spreads the ball around so much it’s too hard to pinpoint (has averaged 3+ targets to all available receivers in rotation).

Cash: Jordan Love, Joe Mixon

GPP: C.J. Stroud, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft, Dalton Schultz.

Eagles @ Giants (+3.5) (O/U 43.5)

We have an NFC East battle in the Meadowlands as the Eagles take on the Giants in what looks to be a low-scoring and close matchup. Philadelphia, who barely squeaked by the struggling Cleveland Browns, does not look like the same team we saw reach the Super Bowl two years ago. Big Blue continues to tough it out by moving the chains without Malik Nabers, hopefully, he clears protocols to play.

Philly is back to full strength offensively after Devonta Smith and AJ Brown returned from injuries last week, each catching one in the end zone. Although tight end Dallas Goedert may be a little banged up, they should easily score on New York. Expect a ton of a pissed-off Saquon Barkley usage at Met Life this weekend, as he returns to face his former team in his I-95 rival Eagles uniform. The Giants allow over five yards per carry, to opposing backs, so pay up for Saquon in cash.

The Giants showed some pride in losing against the Bengals last week as they almost pulled off the win without Malik Nabers and Devin Singletary. Rookie Tyrone Tracy scored 22 fantasy points, averaging about five yards per carry, and Darius Slayton has seen 22 targets, catching 14 of them for 179 yards and a touchdown in the two games without Nabers. The Eagles secondary has been generous to opposing receivers this year, allowing seven touchdowns and almost seven yards per catch. If Nabers is on the field, lock him in for cash, if not, we like Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson.

Cash: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Malik Nabers (if healthy)

GPP: AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, Daniel Jones, Tyrone Tracy Jr. (if Singletary is Out)

Update: Dallas Goedert is Out…Grant Calcaterra is In

Seahawks @ Falcons (-2.5) (O/U 51)

Seattle will try to overcome its two-game slump in Atlanta when it takes on the red-hot Falcons. Both teams can score with ease, it will be just a matter of who can finish with the most. The 51-point total along with the low 2.5-point spread will be very inviting for DFS ownership, so let’s decide on who to own on this slate.

Geno Smith and the Seahawks will need to take to the air if they have a shot at beating Atlanta. The trenches have been friendly to tread on as well (142 RuYDS allowed per game), but if they want to keep up with the pace they will need to attack their 21st in DVOA secondary. DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith Njigba draw terrible coverages from Atlanta’s AJ Terrel (+11% Rating) and Dee Alford (+7% Rating). Seahawks will be popular for DFS this week, especially Kenneth Walker, who averages thirteen carries per game to go along with six targets and 12 red zone touches.

Kirk Cousins has the Falcons’ offense running like a top. Even Kyle Pitts has logged double-digit fantasy points for two straight weeks. Seattle has been trash in stopping the run, allowing close to 145 yards per game on the ground. look to see more of Bijan Robinson on Sunday to take advantage of the matchup. Once Bijan gets moving, expect Kirk to open up the passing routes to London, Mooney, and Pitts. Cash only except for Mooney who can be placed into GPPs.

Cash: Kenneth Walker, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts

GPP: Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith, Jaxon Smith Njigba, DK Metcalf, Darnell Mooney

Bengals @ Browns (+6) (O/U 41.5)

The craptastic Browns have made the slate and will host the Bengals in an AFC North matchup as five-and-a-half-point road favorites. Cleveland appears to be waving the white flag for the 2024 season at 1-5, while Cincinnati has been on a tear offensively scoring over 30 points in three of their last four games. When the Browns and Bengals clash, there’s always blood to be spilled no matter how bad of their records.

Big changes are on the horizon for the Browns. They traded away their top receiver Amari Cooper for a third-round pick this week and there could be more deals on the way. Some good news however is Nick Chubb has been logging full practices this week since being activated from IR. This is perfect timing as Jerome Ford landed on the injury report and has been missing practices with his hamstring. Chubb could see a slightly increased workload in his first game back since Week 2 of last season, and the Bengals’ 28th-ranked run defense (146 RuYDS allowed per game) would be a soft landing spot. Jerry Jeudy also gets a bump with the departure of Amari Cooper.

Joe Burrow has looked like his old self with a healthy receiving core. Now that Tee Higgins is back at 100% alongside Ja’Maar Chase, he’s completed 78% of his passes and has thrown 12 touchdown passes so far this season, which is 2nd in the league. The steam from the Cleveland engine may be gone, and the Bengals may very well walk into the Dog Pound and put them in a kennel. Fire up that Bengals defense for DFS too this weekend.

Cash: Ja’Maar Chase

GPP: Joe Burrow, Nick Chubb, Jerry Jeudy, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Zack Moss, Chase Brown, Bengals DST

Titans @ Bills (-8.5) (O/U 41.5)

Tennessee is coming off their bye week and will have a tough matchup on the road up in Buffalo. The Bills now in full command of the AFC East will look to chalk up another win against a sputtering Titans offense that is unable to pass the football due to a lackluster Will Levis.

A 41.5-point total with a huge spread screams the Bills’ DST for DFS. Josh Allen may not have to put up too many points if the Titans fail to move the football, but we can never tell you to fade one of the best quarterbacks in the game. Buffalo also acquired stud receiver Amari Cooper via trade from Cleveland, but he may not play until he gets up to speed on the playbook. Pay close attention to Bills’ news reports for Cooper and James Cook’s foot problem. If Cook is out, Ray Davis is the next man up to run the ball. He recently torched the Jets on 20 carries for 97 yards and three catches for 55 yards.

The Titans have been a dumpster fire when it comes to chucking the pigskin. Will Levis has struggled in his Sophomore season, averaging only 5.6 yards per attempt and only throwing five touchdowns. The only game in town has been running back Tony Pollard. Although he is only middle of the pack in yards per carry (4.2), catches (16), and touchdowns (3), he’s scored double-digit fantasy points in four of five games for the season. His matchup is tasty, as Buffalo is dead-last in opposing running back yards per attempt at 5.3 YPC.

Cash: Josh Allen, Bills DST

GPP: Tony Pollard, Ray Davis (if James Cook is out)

Update: Tyjae Spears is out, Mason Rudolph to start at QB

Dolphins @ Colts (-3) (O/U 43.5)

Miami will head to Indy fresh off a Week 6 Bye and aim for a win against an opponent that may do them the honor. The Dolphins will still be without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who has been desperately missed by the offense, especially Tyreek Hill. The Colts will be rolling back Anthony Richardson after starting the veteran Joe Flacco in their previous two games, who has led the offense better. Both clubs have putrid defenses and should allow points on each side of the field, I am not worried about this mid-to-low total of 43.5.

Tyler Huntley will be handed the keys to the offense once more for Miami, and hopefully the week off has helped him get more comfortable with the playbook. This may be his last start as Tua can be cleared to play in Week 8, and facing this Colt’s defense, he could go out in style. Indianapolis is currently ranked 26th in passing and 31st in rushing defense, which should set up a great game flow for De’Von Achane and Tyreek Hill. But how much faith you have in Huntley is up to you. They are all viable for a slot in GPPs.

Richardson has been ramping up in practices and is ready to take back his job as quarterback in Week 7, but should we trust him to lead the offense? It’s not fair to knock his stats since he has missed a few games already this year, but when he was on the field he only completed 53% of his passes. Facing a secondary featuring Jalen Ramsey also doesn’t help his cause this week, so the Colts will need to lean on the running game. The Dolphins have allowed eight rushing touchdowns (30th in the league) at 4.7 yards per carry in five games. When Richardson does decide to throw, he’ll look for Josh Downs. In two games they’ve connected on 11 of 14 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown.

Cash: None

GPP: Tyler Huntley, Anthony Richardson, De’Von Achane, Trey Sermon (if healthy), Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Josh Downs

Panthers @ Commanders (-7.5) (O/U 51.5)

Washington is back on the slate and will host a Panthers’ squad that has been unable to stop a bloody nose defensively. The total is juicy but the salaries have risen in a Commanders’ uniform, especially quarterback Jayden Daniels, who is the most expensive on the slate on DraftKings at $7,600. Washington’s defense is equally as bad hence the 51.5-point total. Does Andy Dalton have anything left in the tank to keep the Commanders honest? Let’s dive into this game later in the slate.

The meat and potatoes of this Panthers’ offense have been Chuba Hubbard and Dioantae Johnson all season long. The duo have combined for six touchdowns on top of 51 receptions, with Hubbard averaging 5.6 yards per carry. The ball will be in their hands to face a Commanders’ run defense that is 29th in the league and a secondary that is 28th in DVOA to opposing wide receivers. Xavier Legette also gets some praise in this write-up, as he caught a touchdown in two of his last three contests.

Washington’s players are priced up for a reason, they win games and light up the scoreboard. They sit in a great spot at home to win their fifth game and sit on top of the NFC East. Noah Brown is quietly emerging as Jayden’s second option at receiver seeing eight targets last week. But Terry McLaurin is still the alpha in this receiver room averaging 20 fantasy points per game in his last four. We love the matchup for Washington so pretty much all of their skill players are viable, but pay attention to injury reports for Brian Robinson Jr. If he sits out a third straight game then Austin Ekeler will feast against the worst run defense in football (Panthers allow over 153 RuYDS per game).

Cash: Jayden Daniels, Chuba Hubbard, Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin

GPP: Austin Ekeler, Xavier Legette, Andy Dalton, Noah Brown

Raiders @ Rams (-6.5) (O/U 43)

Vegas lands in the City of Angles to take on the Rams who will be well rested from a bye week. The Raiders are in total tank mode. They traded away Davante Adams for a measly third-round pick, which may have caused the rest of the team to want to sit out. LA is still in the hunt to tank as well sitting at 1-4, but at least their guys show up to play. I am not getting good vibes for DFS in this game, but let’s dissect it anyway.

Adams got his way by faking a hamstring until he got traded. Jakobi Meyers should’ve been back last week but is listed as doubtful. The QB situation between Aiden O’Connell and Gardner Minshew is not tempting, and running back Zamir White may not play again because of his groin. If you have a big set and really need to play a Raider the only games in town are Brock Bowers and Alexander Mattison. Receivers are a crap shoot between Tucker, Turner, and Wilkerson, cheap for DFS but risky. all Raiders are GPP candidates.

Cooper Kupp may step back on the field this week. What better landing spot than the Raiders to test that ankle? He has not played since Week 2 so he may not be worth the high price in DFS, but knowing head coach Sean McVey’s mentality he could play a ton of snaps. The safer Ram would be running back Kyren Williams this week. He’s expensive, but his matchup is remarkable as Vegas allows over 140 yards rushing per game. He is the whole enchilada at running back as he leads the league in carries (95) and red zone touches (32), scoring seven times already this year.

Cash: Kyren Williams

GPP: Cooper Kupp (if he plays), Matt Stafford, Brock Bowers, Alexander Mattison, Tre Tucker, Colby Parkinson, Tutu Atwell, Rams DST

Chiefs @ Niners (-1.5) (O/U 47.5)

We have finally reached the main event, a rematch of the Super Bowl LVIII. Kansas City enters the Bay Area undefeated and well-rested coming off bye. The Niners, however, really need this win in order to stay on top of their division. The bad taste left in their mouth from the loss eight months ago may still be lingering as well, so we can expect an all-out war on the field. Be prepared to stack this game or go up against other entrants stacking them in DFS.

The Chiefs have not looked the sharpest offensively thanks to a boatload of injuries this season, relying on their defense and controversial referee calls to stay undefeated. His fantasy numbers have not been up to par this year, but Patrick Mahomes shows up when it matters. In last year’s big game, he threw for well over 300 yards and two touchdowns, a feat he can easily duplicate this Sunday. Travis Kelce and Juju Smith-Schuster will see large roles once again in the passing game, as well as Kareem Hunt to run the rock.

The Niners are out for blood and looking to climb the standings in the NFC West. It could be tough sledding going up against a Chiefs’ defense that allows only 88 yards per game rushing. That is not good news for a Niner team that is built on running the ball. The fate of San Fransisco once again rests in the hands of Brock Purdy and his arsenal at his fingertips. They are all healthy, so it’s wheels up to Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. Kittle will have the best matchup on paper as Kansas City is dead last in DVOAto defending opposing tight ends.

Cash: Pat Mahomes, Juju Smith-Schuster, Travis Kelce

GPP: Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Kareem Hunt, George Kittle, Jordan Mason (Isaac Guerendo if he is out)

Update: Jordan Mason will play

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 7! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content up until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

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NASCARPremium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop Rankings Cup Series: South Point 400 from Las Vegas 10/20/24

Matt Vecchio
written by Matt Vecchio

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the NASCAR Cup Series. Below you will find my rankings for the drivers in this race.

I am going to try something different for tonight’s race. Instead of the usual driver rankings list, I will give out four different categories of drivers and a little snippet breaking down how to play each group.

(Starting position in parenthesis)

(All pricing is for DK)

Lock:

Ryan Blaney (37) – $9.3K

Blaney starts dead last in Sunday’s race, but there’s no doubt he will get to the front of the field and stay there at some point. In Saturday’s practice session, Blaney had a tire go down, resulting in him hitting the wall hard and requiring the 12 team to go to their backup car.

Top Dominator Plays:

  • Kyle Larson (5) – $11.5K
  • Tyler Reddick (2) – $10K
  • Christopher Bell (1) – $10.3K
  • Denny Hamlin (4) – $10.6K
  • William Byron (9) – $10.8K

Kyle Larson has won back-to-back races here in Vegas and has four top 2 finishes in the last 5 races at this track. If you are only making one lineup, Larson should be in it. Tyler Reddick hasn’t had as much success as Larson, but he does have four top 10s in his last five races at Vegas. Bell has a terrible day here in the spring, but he did finish top 5 in both races last season here in Las Vegas.

Place Differential Plays:

  • Chris Buescher (22) – $7.7K
  • Kyle Busch (20) – $8.5K
  • Bubba Wallace (19) – $7.5K

GPP high upside options:

  • Martin Truex Jr. (12) – $9K
  • Ross Chastain (7) – $8.8K
  • Chase Briscoe (24) – $7.4K
  • Zane Smith (14) – $6.1K
  • Erik Jones (27) – $6.8K

Value Plays:

  • Ryan Preece (32) – $5.6K
  • Daniel Hemric (33) – $5.1K
  • Corey Lajoie (35) – $5.2K
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (25) – $6K
  • Todd Gilliland (30) – $5.8K
NASCAR Best Bets:

(best odds and site in parenthesis)

Kyle Larson (+300 – Caesars)

Kyle Busch (+2000 – FD/Caesars)

Christopher Bell (+750 – FD)

Ryan Blaney Top 5 (+270 – FD)

Chris Buescher Top 10 (+180 – FD)

Top Manufacturer Bets: (all on DK)

Chevy: Larson is the obvious pick (+100), but I will also throw Kyle Busch out there (+900)

Ford: Chris Buescher (+600)

Toyota: Christopher Bell (+300)

Longshot To Win:

Ryan Blaney (+2200 DK/Caesars)

Matchups:

(All bets are from DK)

Denny Hamlin vs William Byron (+105)

Kyle Busch (+100) vs Ross Chastain

Christopher Bell (-105) vs Denny Hamlin

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NFLDaily Fantasy SportsPremium

Thursday Night Showdown Strategy: Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints

David Jones
written by David Jones

Week 7 of the NFL season starts with the Denver Broncos traveling to New Orleans to take on the injury plagued Saints. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

I prefer a correlated lineup build that tells a compelling game story – a strategy that has proven to
win more often than not. For a deeper dive into my general showdown rules, make sure to check
out my “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s
essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can
impact each game’s approach.

Link To Strategy Article: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:
I tend to not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tends to
cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

Running Back
– The Saints allow the 7th most fantasy points to the position (28)
– They have allowed five rushing TDs and one receiving TD to RBs
Javonte Williams is going to get the majority of the carries, but that has been anywhere from 5 to
16 this year. He is not trustworthy at all. But he will touch the ball more than any other Bronco
not named Bo Nix tonight. I have no issue rostering him, and he is a borderline priority on this
Broncos team simply because the other options are so, so bad. If he can get you ten fantasy
points, that really should be enough. He has accomplished that in half of his games this year.
Jaleel McLaughlin makes some sense due to his pass-catching ability. He is somewhat script-
proof, but he also comes with an unreliable volume. I prefer Williams over McLaughlin.
Audric Estime is getting some hype but for no reason. I will be fading him. I don’t think you
need the 3 rd string RB for the Denver Broncos tonight.

Denver Broncos

Wide Receiver
– The Saints allow the 7 th most fantasy points to the position (29.4 per game)
– They have only given up three passing touchdowns
Courtland Sutton is going to be shadowed by Marshon Lattimore, who is easily the best cover
corner in the game. He allows just 0.32 YPRC. If Sutton were to hit the optimal, it is going to be
off a big play or an endzone look that he converts because it will not be coming off the volume.

Devaughn Vele runs out of the slot on 86% of his routes, which lines him up with Alonte Taylor.
Taylor has given up 1.20 YPRC, which is the second-highest on the Saints. Troy Franklin will
line up on the outside, opposite Marshon Lattimore, putting him on Paulson Adebo for the
majority of his routes. This is, on paper, the softest spot of the three corners.
Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele are the best-starting receiver plays for the Broncos, not
Courtland Sutton. I imagine Sutton is still very highly owned simply because salary will not be a
factor for DFS builds tonight.
Lil’Jordan Humphrey is worth a dart throw in the milly maker in his “revenge game” in the
Super Dome. He was on the field for 35% of the snap last week. He is a big play threat, not a
volume threat. Marvin Mim had three targets last week and was on the field just as much as
Humphrey, but I am ranking him as the worst Bronco receiver on the roster.
Tier 1: Troy Franklin, Devaughn Vele
Tier 2: Courtland Sutton
Tier 3: Lil’Jordan Humprey
Punt: Marvin Mims

Tight End
– The Saints allow 9.1 fantasy points per game to the position
– They have given up just one receiving TD
– They have allowed the 6 th most yards in the league, but a lot of that has been game-
script-dependent
Adam Trautman, Lucas Krull, and Greg Dulcich will all see time on the field tonight. Trautman
(31%) was outsnapped by Krull (60%) last week, but it seems to flip-flop with all of these tight
ends depending on the matchup. Dulcich, although listed as the TE3, could see anywhere from
25% of snaps to 65% of snaps. This position is a true dart throw, and I don’t have much
confidence in it, no matter which name I choose.
The ball should be forced to a couple of these guys, at least, especially with Sutton having a
difficult matchup. If I have to choose a guy that could make a “big play,” it is Dulcich, but he
wouldn’t be my first lean as a red zone target, which is probably all you need tonight.
Tough position to find any real gem to play with confidence.
Tier 2: Adam Trautman, Lucas Krull, Greg Dulcich

New Orleans Saints

Running Back

I am going to save you the reading and just let you know I am locking Alvin Kamara in 100% of
my lineups.
Jamal Williams has been a nonfactor this season and has dramatically lost playing time. I will
likely fade him and hope he doesn’t get a goal-line carry, which he won’t because there will not
be many of those tonight.
Lock: Alvin Kamara
Punt: Jamaal Williams
Dog House Fade: Kendre Miller

Wide Receiver
– The Broncos allow just 23 fantasy points per game to receivers
– They have given up 1 passing touchdown
It is a bad matchup for all Saints receivers, but they only have three you can consider tonight,
and they are all super cheap, so yes, we are going to be playing some. All three, in short sample
size, move all over the field. No one is primarily occupying the slot enough to encourage a hard
take on what coverage they will see.
Bub Means showed the “second-team” connection with Spencer Rattler in the last game. He got
decent volume and hauled in his first TD. He is going to be my first choice. Mason Tipton is
going to be next. This is just an “eye-test” call, which is what this slate has given us. Cedric
Wilson has looked relatively checked out recently, but hey, he did catch two balls last week!
That is it for the Saints, but I don’t know who they will be calling up from the practice squad.
Whoever it is, I will not be rostering them.
Tier 1: Bub Means
Tier 2: Mason Tipton, Cedrick Wilson

Tight End
– The Broncos allow 12 fantasy points per game to the position
– They have given up two receiving touchdowns
Juwan Johnson is my favorite TE for the Saints. The big-body converted wide receiver should be
an intriguing part of the offense tonight due to how tough it is to throw on the Bronco’s corners
and the lack of pass-catching options for the Saints. He is the main lineup worthy. Foster Moreau
played almost half the snaps last week and should get a few targets here. He ripped up a 41-yard
reception last week that helped pad the stats. He is fine at the salary. I likely don’t play both TEs
in the same lineup.

FanDuel MVP Picks –TNF Showdown
I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back.
You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value.  The salaries do not change from flex to
MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range.
FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Alvin Kamara, Bo Nix – heavy focus
FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Spencer Rattler, Javonte Williams
DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Alvin Kamara
DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Bo Nix
DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Javonte Williams, Spencer Rattler, Bub Means
Punts: Wil Lutz, Denver D
Feel free to punt with guys like Troy Franklin, Devaughn Vele, Juwan Johnson, and Mason Tipton
– but I don’t think they score twice or have “big yard” games, pushing me toward their QBs
more.

Flex Rankings Tier 1:
Alvin Kamara
Bo Nix
Spencer Rattler
Wil Lutz
Javonte Williams
Bub Means
Blake Grupe
Juwan Johnson
Courtland Sutton
Denver Defense
Troy Franklin
Devaughn Vele
Mason Tipton
Adam Trautman
Foster Moreau
Lil’Jordan Humphrey
Cedric Wilson
Saints Defense

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)
Lucas Kroll
Greg Dulcich
Jamaal Williams
Marvin Mims

Fadeable Flex Punts: (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)
Audric Estime
Kendre Miller

Best Rules for the slate:
There are two ways this slate goes tonight. The first is the chalkiest lineup you have ever seen
takes it down. The second is someone who leaves a TON of salary on the table wins.

  • Lock in Alvin Kamara
  • Lock in a Saints receiver (all underpriced), Means is the preference
  • Lock in a kicker (prefer Lutz, but both viable)
  • I will have a defense on over half my teams, prefer Denver
  • Bo Nix > Spencer Rattler
  • Leave a ton of salary on the table
  • Don’t play your MVP QB against the opposing defense
  • Stack your kicker with at least one skill player
  • Someone has to move the ball down the field
  • Don’t play more than 1 TE per team, per lineup

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