DraftKings

We are moving right along through the NFL season as we are past the midway point and grinding our way week-to-week in DFS. This slate gets cut down to 10 games thanks to a few teams on bye, but we’ll still have plenty to work with. Let’s not waste any more time and cut right to the Breakdown, the injuries are piling up for the season and we have a lot to chop it up about!

Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.

Sunday Main Slate 11/10/24

Bills @ Colts (+4) (O/U 46)

Buffalo will keep the pedal to the metal as they land in Indianapolis to battle the Colts in our kickoff of Week 10. Joe Flacco looked like Joe Flacid last weekend and will need to step up his game against the top dog in the AFC East if he wants to keep Indianapolis in the playoff race. The 46 total is decent, so we should have no worries about taking a slice of this game on the slate for lineups.

Besides Josh Allen who is a lock for cash games week in and week out, what other Bills can be viable this weekend against a Colts’ defense that ranks in the bottom ten of the league against the run and the pass. Keep an eye out for Amari Cooper’s wrist injury, if he sits out again we may want to double down with Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and or Dalton Kincaid. James Cook will see a run defense that allows 150 yards per game and could be worth every penny of his $7K salary on DraftKings.

Indy will run it back with Flacco again and hope he will be able to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers. Second-year wideout Josh Downs has become the clear-cut target share leader in the receiver room with a 27% target share for the season with nine last weekend from Flacco. But the running game will need to be established first, so expect to see plenty of Jonathan Taylor against the Bills’ 31st in DVOA to opposing running backs.

Cash: Josh Allen, Jonathan Taylor

GPP: James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Josh Downs

Update: Michael Pittman and Keon Coleman are out.

Steelers @ Commanders (-2.5) (O/U 45.5)

The schedule is beginning to get tougher for the league’s arguable QB1 going into this weekend Jayden Daniels as the Steelers visit the Commanders. Vegas is not intimidated by the Steelers’ defense giving them a 45.5-point total, so we may see some back-and-forth potential between Wilson and Daniels. Let’s see how this may play out.

The secondary has been beefed up in Washington this past week as the Commanders traded for Marshon Lattimore with the Saints. They’ve only been allowing 184 yards through the air before the trade, so expect Wilson to not be as effective down the field. Pittsburgh may lean more on their running game, where Washington has struggled, allowing over 140 yards per game. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will offer some GPP appeal in the $6K range at running back the week for DFS.

Washington is rolling with the rookie Daniels under center, winning five of their last six games and having the third-best overall offense in the league. If Daniels can stay elusive from the Steelers’ pressure, then Terry McLaurin may have enough time to shake Joey Porter to get open, who currently ranks 77th in coverage with a +14.6 rating. Also, watch the status of running back Brian Robinson who is still nursing a hamstring. If he sits out again it will be more reps for Austin Ekeler out of that explosive backfield, and priced under $6K on DraftKings.

Cash: Jayden Daniels, Najee Harris

GPP: Russell Wilson, Terry McLaurin, George Pickens, Austin Ekeler
Update: Brian Robinson is OUT

Falcons @ Saints (+3.5) (O/U 46)

Here we have an NFC South matchup as Atlanta travels to The Big Easy to take on the Saints. New Orleans fired their head coach Dennis Allen this week, so we may see some changes to the scheme in the upcoming weeks. Seems like they are preparing for a rebuild as they also traded All-Pro cornerback Marshon Lattimore this week to the Commanders for a third and fourth-round pick.

Atlanta should have a walk in the park this week on offense, as the Saints were 26th overall on defense before the Lattimore trade and Allen firing. Even Carolina locked up a win against this roster, so this game should be cake for Cousins and the crew. Just keep an eye on Drake London during the week as he suffered a hip pointer in the first quarter of last week’s game. The Falcons’ DST is also a solid option this week for DFS.

As for the Saints, it’s still the Alvin Kamara show, who has shown us to be extremely durable this season. He is currently ranked number one among running backs in targets and receptions, and averaging 21 fantasy points per game this season. He may see plenty of stacked boxes when on the field, so keep him in tournaments at his very high salary. Perhaps let’s go back to the Taysom Hill well that I suggested in last week’s Breakdown due to the lack of pass-catchers and running backs. He put up 16 fantasy points, catching five balls for 51 yards and a score while adding 41 yards rushing. Still underpriced at $4K on DraftKings.

Cash: Bijan Robinson, Kirk Cousins

GPP: Alvin Kamara, Taysom Hill, Kyle Pitts, Drake London (if healthy) Darnell Mooney, Saints DST

Vikings @ Jaguars (+4) (O/U 47)

The Vikings are back on track and will look to keep their momentum out in Jacksonville on Sunday against the 2-7 Jaguars. It’s only a four-point spread but it’s a game that can easily get out of hand considering how bad the Jags have been defensively. A great game to pick pieces from for lineups because of each team’s desire to put the ball in the air against their terrible secondaries…Enjoy!

Jacksonville is nearly dead-last in points allowed, passing with total yards allowed per game, it’s gross. Play plenty of purple jerseys this weekend in your lineups, especially Jefferson who is always good for 20-plus fantasy points. Aaron Jones has calmed down recently, putting up a few duds in the last couple of weeks. This week may be his get-right spot as we all witnessed Saquon go bananas at home against that run defense, and he’s used heavily in the fourth quarter to eat up the clock.

The Jags’ season is pretty much dead in the water, and playing for pride the rest of the way. Minnesota does offer the worst overall DVOA in the passing game, so if Trevor Lawrence can shake the left shoulder soreness he could quadruple his value again like he did in Phila. His best receiver Brian Thomas is pricey ($6,600 on DK), but would be a target funnel along with tight end Evan Engram and Parker Washington. Stay clear of the Jags’ backs this week since Minnesota has been tough in the trenches (82 YPG allowed)

Cash: Justin Jefferson

GPP: Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, Evan Engram, Parker Washington, MIN DST

Update: Trevor Lawrence is unlikely to play, and Mac Jones is to start.

Patriots @ Bears (-6) (O/U 39)

The Patriots narrowly lost by a field goal in Tennessee and will be in over their heads on Sunday at Soldier Field against the Bears’ fifth-ranked defense. The Bears sit in a perfect bounce-back spot after dropping two straight games and will aim to make mincemeat of the Pats at home. It’s a low total with a wide spread so let’s see where to attack here for DFS.

The Patriots have been a punching bag to their opponents all year, allowing the football to move up and down the field no matter who they are facing. This will turn out to be a game for Caleb Williams and the Bears to let out some frustration, especially after last week’s 29-9 loss to the Cardinals. Pick your poison of Chicago’s skill players for GPPs this weekend. Their defense is also in play.

If I were to risk my hard-earned cash on anybody for the Patriots, it would be on Rhamondre Stevenson. The Bears allow over 130 rushing yards per game and Stevenson has been their multi-faceted back that has scored four times in his last two games. He is a discount on his DraftKings salary ($6,400), as the only game in town for New England take your shot in GPPs. If you feel the Bears will also struggle offensively this week, the Jerod Mayo Pats’ defense is another bargain on DK for $2,500.

Cash: None

GPP: Caleb Williams, D’Andre Swift, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet, Bears DST, Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots DST

Broncos @ Chiefs (-8) (O/U 41.5)

We get the world champs this week back on the slate as they’ll host their division rival Denver Broncos. Kansas City will look to stay undefeated in front of a home crowd while the Broncos look to stay above .500 on the road. Pat Mahomes is coming off his best performance of the season and should be able to replicate it this week as an eight-point favorite.

The Broncos have been solid all season on defense, ranking third on the season in overall points allowed, but not as of late. Baltimore gashed them for 41 last weekend, as Lamar Jackson threw for three scores- two to Zay Flowers. Unless this was a hiccup from this Vance Joseph defense we could see another bludgeoning by the Chiefs. Mahomes is always a lock and his weapons of Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins are also viable. Kareem Hunt averaging over 20 carries per game has proven to be a true workhorse again for this offense. But he may be a bit pricey salary-wise for DFS this week.

Head Coach Sean Payton has truly been gifted at developing quarterbacks over his career, as rookie Bo Nix has been a top 12 quarterback on the season so far. He’ll see a true test of skill against a top defense in Kansas City where DC Steve Spagnuolo has suffocated his opponents. I am not investing in any Broncos this week, as the Chiefs currently rank first against running backs and hold their opposition to 18 points per game.

Cash: Pat Mahomes, Travis Kelce

GPP: DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs DST

Niners @ Bucs (+5) (O/U 51)

The Niners are fresh and healthier off a Week 9 bye and will travel to Tampa to face off against the Bucs. It looks to be pretty high-scoring as the only game on the slate with a total over 50. Tampa came close to defeating the Super Bowl champs on Monday night, but fell short on a coin toss in overtime and allowing them to score a TD. They’re five-point dogs at home, but I believe it will be a much closer game because of Baker Mayfield’s competitiveness.

The Bucs defensively have been a dumpster fire, averaging well over 30 points per game in their last three contests. Mainly giving up chunks of yardage and end zone targets through the air, look for Brock Purdy to continue to expose their holes on defense. Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings will all feast from Tampa’s 30th-ranked pass defense. Cristian McCaffrey is set to make his debut this week, but I do not expect a full workload if he does in fact play. He is still priced up for DFS so best to keep him out of your lineups until we get a full sample.

Baker will do his best to keep up with the Niners’ pace so expect him to do what he has been doing…chuck the pigskin. He’s logged well over 120 attempts in his last three games, but his problem is the talent level at receiver has been depleted due to injuries. Tight end Cade Otton has been his go-to guy since Godwin and Evans went down in Week 7, racking up 25 catches on 31 targets for 256 yards and three scores. He’ll be a cash game play but his fellow receiver teammates who all lurk in the low $4K range on DraftKings should be used in GPPs.

Cash: Cade Otton, Brock Purdy

GPP: Baker Mayfield, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Sterling Shepard, Jauan Jennings, Jalen McMillan, Rachaad White

Titans @ Chargers (-7.5) (O/U 38)

The Titans, who finally get a win to go a miserable 2-7 against the Patriots last week, travel to LA to face a Chargers’ defense that has put their opponents in a vice offensively (ranked first in points allowed). LA has won two of their last three and look comfortable sitting at 5-3 going into this matchup as a touchdown favorite. Not too much to decide on here for DFS as both clubs are pretty cut and dry to dissect.

The low total and wide point spread tell us to start up that Chargers’ defense, obviously, but who else is worth a shot for LA? Well, Justin Herbert seems to be throwing the football more often these days, and pretty efficiently. He’s passed for 280 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games. Not lighting up the scoreboard but for only $5,200 on DraftKings, that’s four times his value. Pair him up with Quentin Johnston or Ladd McKonkey for even more bang for your buck, or just stay safe with JK Dobbins at running back who’s been a bell cow all season. All are solid GPP options.

Tennessee will continue to focus on their run game as they play hide the quarterback with Mason Rudolph and Will Levis. Tony Pollard has carried a questionable tag for two weeks straight, yet he still will see twenty-plus carries when he is on the field. The Titans will get every dollar out of Pollard this year, but for DFS he may be priced out at $6,900 on DraftKings. Consider Calvin Ridley at only $5,700 as another option as he is the last man standing seeing close to 20 targets since the departure of DeAndre Hopkins to KC. GPP only fellas.

Cash: Chargers DST

GPP: JK Dobbins, Justin Herbert, Ladd McKonkey, Quentin Johnston, Calvin Ridley

Eagles @ Cowboys (+7) (O/U 42)

The white-hot Eagles will visit the Dak-less Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in what looks to be a beatdown in front of a home crowd in Dallas. Philadelphia will look to make a statement to their division rival Cowboys and keep in the race against Washington for first place. Hopefully, this game is not over by halftime and Dallas will keep the Eagles honest.

Philadelphia will do what they do best offensively, enforce the running game by utilizing one of the best O-lines in football. Dallas already ranks 30th defending against it, so basically prepare to see another blood bath in the boxscore between Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts. Their pass catchers are always in play, but keep an eye on Devonta Smith as he’s been missing practice this week due to a hamstring. Tight end Dallas Goedert is set to return after missing four weeks and should see some work especially if Devonta is out.

Cooper Rush will look to pick up where he left off in Atlanta filling in for Dak Prescott, as he threw for 115 yards and a touchdown. But Phila’s DC Vic Fangio may have his number this weekend as Rush has no quality running game behind him and will focus entirely on smothering CeeDee Lamb. Startup that Eagles DST, it could get ugly. However, Rush will have to get the ball out elsewhere if Lamb doesn’t get open, and perhaps tight end Jake Ferguson. Keep Dem’ Boyz in tournaments only.

Cash: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Eagles DST

GPP: Cee Dee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, Devonta Smith (if healthy)

Jets @ Cardinals (-1) (U/O 46)

New York is on the brink of making the playoffs and desperately need a win to stay alive, They’ll be the on the road to face the Cardinals, who currently have first place in their division. There’ll be loads of talent in State Farm Stadium to wrap up the Main Slate this week, so with a lot at stake we can expect both clubs to come out swinging.

It’s win or start looking for a new job for Gang Green, so expect the Jets to be ramped up for battle. Arizona sits in the bottom tier defensively, ranking 22nd on the ground and 24th through the air. New York’s offense is pretty condensed, we’ll see Rodgers utilize Breece Hall out of the backfield and Wilson and Adams to get the majority of the targets. All useful in cash or GPP lineups.

As well as the Cardinals have been record-wise, for fantasy it’s been a roller coaster. Inconsistency has been all over Kyler Murray along with Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison, yet running back James Conner just keeps padding up his stats. Only two of nine weeks he has scored less than ten fantasy points, and against a Jets’ run defense that gets hammered every week for 130-plus yards per game, run him back.

Cash: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, James Conner

GPP: Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 10! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content up until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

And we are back for another week of a Main Slate to break down as we move through halfway of the season. So many gems were in last week’s article that would’ve skyrocketed you up the pay lines if they were locked in your lineups. From our punts like Cedric Tillman and Jameis Winston to our pay-up plays of AJ Brown and Jalen Hurts, all produced 4 times or more their salaries. On to Week 9. Only two teams are on bye so we have 12 games on the menu tonight. Let’s get to the digging, Week 9 Breakdown here we go!

Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.

Sunday Main Slate 11/3/24

Broncos @ Ravens (-9) (O/U 42)

We kick off the slate with a battle between two AFC playoff contenders as Denver heads over to the East Coast to take on the Ravens. Both teams sit at 5-3 and their records speak for themselves. Built on tough defenses and running the football, The Ravens and Broncos may have to switch their strategies to pull out a victory.

The last domino fell this week in the wide receiver sweepstakes as Baltimore acquired Diontae Johnson via trade with the Panthers. Although Johnson’s fantasy value will take a now being a part of a crowded Ravens’ receiving room, Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry will be even more effective in the run game. The Broncos led by Patrick Surtain are ranked third overall and fourth defending the pass. Diontae Johnson is another weapon to distract opposing defenses away from the NFL’s number one running offense. Lamar and Henry stay in the cash game conversation.

Baltimore also has the number-one-ranked rushing defense, which only allows 69 yards per game. Bo Nix will need to fully rely on his arm in this game, which shouldn’t be a problem as he ranks first in the league with deep ball attempts (37). His 20-plus fantasy points in two of his last three games are in trouble, so Denver will focus on Nix to get the ball out and attack Baltimore’s 31st-ranked secondary. GPPs welcome Courtland Sutton, Javonte Williams, and company.

Cash: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry

GPP: Bo Nix, Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton, Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin, Mark Andrews

Dolphins @ Bills (-6) (O/U 49)

A rivalry in the AFC East emerges in Buffalo as the Bills host the Miami Dolphins team in their second matchup of the year. The Bills have a stranglehold on the division at 6-2 and will look to widen the margin against a Dolphins team that has struggled on both sides of the ball all year since Tua went down in Week 2.

The chemistry keeps building in Buffalo between Josh Allen and his revamped receiving room. Six to seven players are targeted in Allen’s last three contests, which again will be a headache for Miami defensive coordinators. Deciding on a Bills receiver will be tricky for DFS, so a safer approach would be to use a naked Josh Allen or James Cook. Miami is 21st in DVOA to opposing running backs, which sets the stage for another decent performance for Allen and Cook.

Miami was back to full strength with Tua back in the lineup, and what a shot in the arm for the offense as they put up 27 points against the Cardinals last week. It shouldn’t get too cold this Sunday up in Buffalo, which gives the Dolphins a chance for a shot at stealing a win on the road. If Miami can continue to force De’Von Achane and the running game, it could be finally a return of Tyreek Hill to DFS relevance. The Bills rank 31st in defending opposing backs, in a game with an implied total of 49, Achane, Hill, and Tua a week removed from IR make great GPP options.

Cash: Josh Allen, De’Von Achane, James Cook

GPP: Tyreek Hill, Tua Tagovailoa, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Jaylen Waddle

Commanders @ Giants (+3.5) (O/U 43.5)

Next, we have an NFC East matchup between the division-leading 6-2 Commanders and the struggling 2-6 Giants. Washington will aim to keep its momentum moving after last week’s Hail Mary victory against Chicago. Big Blue is singing the Blues these days as they have dropped three of their last four games and become the division’s bottom feeders. But it’s a divisional game with plenty of football left in the season, so expect New York to come out with some spunk.

Jayden Daniels played with a bruised rib in last week’s victory against the Bears, and he is trending towards suiting up again at MetLife Stadium. He’ll be a risky play for DFS at his salary, along with his receiving core especially after being held to just 13 fantasy points with zero touchdowns in Week 2 against New York. The Washington running game is what cashed in their first meeting with both Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler combining for over 200 total yards. Their defense has also stepped up along the season (11th ranked overall), so for DFS they are a full go against bumbling blue.

The Giants were humiliated in Pittsburgh on Monday Night, but there was one bright spot… Tyrone Tracy Jr. The rookie ran for 145 yards at over 7 YPC, with a touchdown. Although Devin Singletary is still in the mix, Tracy saw 20 carries and is the preferred back for coach Brian Dabol, so long as he clears concussion protocols. The Giants’ other rookie number four overall pick Malik Nabers should again see plenty of volume averaging 12 targets per game. He lit up the sky in Washington back in Week 2 for 31 DK fantasy points, so let’s bring him back for another shot in DFS for Week 9.

Cash: Malik Nabers, Brian Robinson (if healthy)

GPP: Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Tyrone Tracy Jr. (if he plays), Commanders DST, Austin Ekeler

Raiders @ Bengals (-7) (O/U 46.5)

The Bengals hungry to stay in the playoff race will host the lowly Raiders who still are playing with no identity here in Week 9. The Bengals sit in a perfect landing spot to bounce back after taking one on the chin last week from Philly, as a clear favorite in this matchup. There will be some notable names missing from this game, so let’s fill you in with the details.

Starting wide receiver Tee Higgins and running back Zack Moss are listed as doubtful going into the weekend, which usually means a big no-no for DFS even if they miraculously suit up. Having this news, it will be the Chase and Chase show for Cincy, as Ja’Marr Chase and Chase Brown will have a full plate of reps and volume this weekend. Other players to step up will be Andrei Iosivas, Trent Irwin, and Mike Gesicki for Joe Burrow to pepper in the Bengals’ pass-first offense. A nice matchup all around for the team as Vegas’ 26th-ranked offense will provide plenty of extra scoring opportunities.

The Raiders will get back Jakobi Meyers at receiver for Gardner Minshew, who will need all the help he can get. At this point in the season, the players are looking to keep their jobs for next season. Running back Alexander Mattison has been consistent and has taken over the lead role, Cincinnati allows close to 140 yards per game so he can be a GPP candidate. Meyers and Mattison are the only Vegas show in town this weekend, so if you’re looking for leverage in tournaments look no further.

Cash: Ja”Maar Chase, Chase Brown, Bengals DST, Joe Burrow

GPP: Andrei Iosivas, Trent Irwin, Mike Gesicki, Jakobi Meyers, Alexander Mattison

Cowboys @ Falcons (-3) (O/U 52)

Now this is more like it. A 52 total indoors featuring two teams that are not afraid to throw the football. The Cowboys hit the road and will be eager to not drop their third straight game, but the Falcons will be a tall order. Atlanta wants to go back-to-back wins to keep up and stay in first place in the division against Tampa. The high total will draw the field over for ownership, so let’s check it out.

Dallas’ porous defense will be on stage this Sunday, who desperately will miss Micah Parsons, DaRon Bland, and Trevon Diggs once again. It will be a blood bath on the astroturf, as this fully healthy and weaponized offense led by Kirk Cousins could be the highest-scoring team on the slate, and all safe for cash. The Cowboys rank 31st against the run and 29th against the pass allowing 7.2 yards per attempt and 154 rushing yards per game.

Since the Cowboys will not be able to defend, they should be behind in the second half. Prescott will hopefully go back to where his bread is buttered with CeeDee Lamb (13 REC/146 YDS/2 TDS in Week 8) to keep up the pace, as they have no clear second option in Dallas. Atlanta can be thrown on too so no worries, their DVOA is 23rd to its wideouts. If you don’t choose Lamb, go for tight end Jake Ferguson who saw eight targets against San Fran last week. All three are GPPs except for Lamb who can go cash too.

Cash: CeeDee Lamb, Drake London, Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts

GPP: Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Rico Dowdle, Jake Ferguson, Darnell Mooney

Chargers @ Browns (+1.5) (O/U 43)

LA hopes to stay in contention while in the aggressive AFC West and steal a win on the road from the new and improved Cleveland Browns. The lights will all be on quarterback Jameis Winston after his incredible 334 yards, 3 touchdown performance to defeat the first-place Ravens. Can lightning strike again in Cleveland? It will be a stretch against the number-one-ranked defense in points allowed, but anything can happen.

LA continues to ride the coattails of JK Dobbins, who had another touchdown scored against New Orleans. He’s been their go-to guy, especially with the injury to Gus Edwards. But finally, we get to mention Justin Herbert in the Breakdown, who threw the ball 32 times last week. He’ll get Quentin Johnston back from a bum ankle alongside Ladd McConkey, which should help pad his stats. With all the injuries on defense including Joey Bosa entering the contest questionable, if Jameis has another big day, Herbert may have to keep up.

Winston was the talk of the town in the NFL and has the red carpet rolled out for him as comeback player of the year if he keeps up this type of play. Cedric Tillman became his preferred receiver of choice, catching seven for 99 yards and two touchdowns. Tight end David Njoku was also on the receiving end of his scores, but with Winston, everyone is in play who is on the field. Again, It’s the Chargers’ defense so buyers beware if they show up. All are GPP options, including the LA DST if you feel Winston goes back to some of his old ways.

Cash: None

GPP: Justin Herbert, Jameis Winston, David Njoku, Cedric Tillman, Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey, JK Dobbins, LAC DST

Saints @ Panthers (+7.5) (O/U 43.5)

Well, we’ve reached rock bottom of the slate as the 2-6 Saints take on the 1-7 Panthers in a game to decide who is the worst of the worst. New Orleans has an injury report that looks like a grocery list, and the Panthers are starting Bryce Young again over a healthy Andy Dalton. Both teams are horrendous on defense, which is a cheat code for fantasy riches. I am locked into this game for tournaments since the low total may sway ownership away, a potential sleeper… so let’s dive in.

Derek Carr is finally back in the mix after a four-game oblique injury, which is a sigh of relief for the offense in New Orleans. What a matchup to help ease him back into game form too, as Carolina ranks dead last in overall defense. Chris Olave is the last of the Mohicans of Saints’ starting wideouts, who had a stud-like game last week ( 8 REC/107 YDS). Both are solid for cash along with their lone soldier at running back Alvin Kamara since no one else is healthy in their backfield. The rest of them can be slid into tournaments, see below in bold…

Bryce Young is the cheapest starting quarterback on DraftKings at $4,400, yet he put up over 15 fantasy points against Denver last week, but that was in garbage time. Still, that’s nearly four times his salary, rolling the dice on Young one more time against a Saints defense that will be without defensive backs Marshon Lattimore and Kool-Aid McKinstry would be very tempting for DFS. The departure of Diontae Johnson causes Xavier Legette to become Carolina’s alpha by default followed by Jalen Coker and Jonathan Mingo. All are GPP targets, along with running back Chuba Hubbard who gets another full workload against a Saints defense that allows 143 yards per game on the ground.

Cash: Chris Olave, Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara, Chuba Hubbard

GPP: Bryce Young, Xavier Legette, Cedrick Wilson, Mason Tipton, Juwan Johnson, Taysom Hill, Jonathan Mingo, Jalen Coker

Patriots @ Titans (-3.5) (O/U 38)

A possible stinker on the slate. Mason Rudolph gets the call as the Titans will host the Pats with a concussion-free Drake Maye. Just on the total and these teams’ records alone I would say either defense would be safe to use in lineups. However, taking some ownership of some of the skill players in this one is a slick spot to get different in tournaments. Let’s take a look and see.

Rudolph did well in garbage time last week against Detroit scoring 21 fantasy points, and has a small chance to replicate it again if this game gets sloppy. The Pats will allow opponents to move the chains (223 PaYDS/game, 133 RuYDS./game), giving the Titan’s top playmakers Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard plenty of optimism to ball out. Pollard has not practiced all week and Tyjae Spears is out, so if you are feeling frisky take the min-priced Julius Chestnut. If Pollard bows out from his foot, you’ll see 20 carries from a $4K back on DraftKings.

Last weekend we witnessed the Lions put 34 points up on the Titans by halftime, so it is safe to say they’ll be out to prove a point on defense this weekend. But if the Pats can score half of that 52 then we should see some value out of them. Rookie Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, and DeMario Douglas are all tournament plays against a Titans team that’s 28th in the league in points allowed per game (26.3)

Cash: Patriots DST, Titans DST

GPP: Drake Maye, Masin Rudolph, Rhamondre Stevenson, Calvin Ridley, Demario Douglas, Hunter Henry, Tony Pollard, Julius Chestnut

Jaguars @ Eagles (-7.5) (O/U 45.5)

This game has a blowout script written all over it. The Jags were bad enough as it is defensively (29th overall), but now their offense has taken a hit from injuries. Philadelphia on the other hand looked unstoppable in Cincinnati racking up 37 points on the road to defeat the Bengals. The Eagles are back at home and Jacksonville may have their work cut out for them, here’s why.

Trevor Lawrence’s 62% completion ratio up against a top-ten Eagles’ defense on the road, plus injuries to the offensive skill players are just too many red flags this week for the Jags. Christian Kirk was lost for the season this week due to a collarbone fracture, and everybody else is questionable except Evan Engram. Engram may be in store for a ton of targets this weekend as the only fully Jaguar suiting up to catch the football. Keep an eye on reports on the rest of the team closer to game time.

Jalen Hurts gave you 37 fantasy points last week and could very well do it again at home. He is true to padding his stats and will take every opportunity to light up the boxscore at home. Play all your Eagles connected to him, especially Barkley this time out as he will face a Jaguars’ 28th in DVOA to opposing running backs. Jacksonville allows close to 28 points per game on the season and is well on pace to drive up that number in Philadelphia.

Cash: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Eagles DST

GPP: AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Evan Engram

Bears @ Cardinals (-1) (O/U 44.5)

Chicago will be out for vengeance after losing to a Hail Mary pass in Washington last weekend, so Arizona better brace themselves. The Bears are above .500 and playing well this deep into the season, and appear to have finally found their quarterback. Arizona is another surprisingly decent team at 4-4 so far and on top of the NFC West division. Only a one-point spread here in a mid-forties total, so I would not get cute in this game for DFS. Just target either team’s star players if you like this game.

Kyler Murray read the playbook beautifully last weekend, getting the ball into the hands of his best players, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride. Each caught for over 100 yards and a touchdown. However, facing a number four-ranked Bears defense may slow down Murray through the air so that James Conner may be more emphasized in the offense on Sunday. Chicago allows over 120 yards of rushing per game, making Conner another safe play this week. Conner has scored over 15 fantasy points in six of eight games this season.

Chicago has won three of its last four games (there should have been four straight) and it’s all because of one man, D’Andre Swift. The former Georgia Bulldog has averaged well over 100 total yards and one touchdown per game in his last four contests. A solid option for cash games and is still severely underpriced on DraftKings at $6,400. We usually do not stack running backs with quarterbacks in DFS, but in this case, I see no issue rolling Swift out with Caleb Williams. Bears receivers have been hit or miss, for a safer option go with tight end Cole Kmet who sees a 78% snap share.

Cash: James Conner, D’Andre Swift

GPP: Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams, Cole Kmet, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison

Lions @ Packers (+3.5) (U/O 48.5)

A huge game on the slate featuring the most explosive division in the NFC North. Both teams are hungry to take the lead as they are neck and neck with six wins a piece. However there is some rain in the forecast in Green Bay, so calm yourselves down a bit on attacking this part of the slate. Let’s figure out this game.

Vegas has dropped the total one point to 47.5 since Tuesday, and this is after Jordan Love was cleared to play from his groin injury that had him crawling to the sideline last Sunday. I do not feel Love is 100% after watching him in pain, so I am out weather or no weather factor. Running back Josh Jacobs is the only Packer I am interested in, averaging 24 fantasy points in his last two games and the clear workhorse of this offense.

Two fun facts about the Lions: They will run the ball down your throats at will, and Jared Goff sucks outdoors, even worse in wet weather. The combination of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery has been lights out all year, ranked 6th in yardage and first in touchdowns with 13 rushing. Now Goff can’t hand it off thirty times tomorrow, so I would go Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta for some work so long Goff does not melt away. Packers DST is an under-the-radar move this week I feel because of the high total, so long as Goff does not show up.

Cash: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Jacobs

GPP: Sam LaPorta, Tucker Kraft, Jayden Reed, Packers DST, Lions DST

Rams @ Seahawks (+1.5) (U/O 48)

Last but not least we have a battle in the NFC West. It’s a nice total of 48 with a tight spread of 1.5, so we should see some back-and-forth game flow. The division is up for grabs so expect both teams to come out swinging in their first meeting of the season.

LA is fresh off a victory in Minnesota thanks to a ref turning a blind eye to a facemask on Sam Darnold. The Rams are one of the most electrifying teams in football when healthy, and this week they seem to be. The matchup is juicy, especially for Kyren Williams, who’ll face a Seattle defense that gives up close to 150 yards per game in the trenches. But all should feast well in this high-scoring game so start your Rams up but they won’t come cheap.

Seattle will need all the help they can get on offense as they’ll be without DK Metcalf and Noah Fant. Geno Smith’s downfield threat capabilities will be compromised unless Jake Bobo and AJ Barner can fill in some big shoes this weekend. Although Seattle may choose a more run-heavy approach with Kenneth Walker, who has been solid this season. His role in the passing game has increased to a 14% target share in Seattle, fifth in the league amongst running backs. Jaxson-Smith Njigba and Tyler Lockett will see a bump in their starting roles this week as well.

Cash: Kyren Williams, Kenneth Walker

GPP: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Matt Stafford, Geno Smith, JSN, Jake Bobo, AJ Barner, Tyler Lockett

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 9! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content up until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!